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Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. 0:53 [electronic sound effects] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 1:02 Hour number three of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Series X at Channel 158. Uh, couple, uh, notes. You had Townsend in your parlay, Taylor Townsend? 1:14 Yep. One leg home. Man, she was double parked outside. Yeah, that was quick. That was, like, real quick, right? Six-one. When did these matches start? Six-one, six-one, breadsticks against Taylor Preston. Boom. 1:24 You got that one in. Um, so what- I kind of did the... Is it the Paul Carr? I, I, I'm mixing up who we give credit to for betting theories. The play against a no-namer, like a name you don't recognize. 1:35 I don't know that one. The name versus no name. Uh-uh. Isn't that, like, his Champions League? Like, we, we play, like, you know, Real Madrid versus someone you've never heard of. 1:42 The Paul Carr handicap that I love the most is I'm just gonna bet on the better team here. I, I kinda get. Yeah. Maybe I'm just mixing up things. Yeah. 1:47 But I'm like, I t- I stare at some of these tennis names, and I'm like, "Gil goes through tennis bets every day on this show." I'm like, "How have I never heard this name?" Oh, yeah. 1:55 That's how I put together some of these parlays. 'Cause there's hundreds of these players, right? Yeah. I was, I was looking the other day. I was- Like Taylor Fritz. Is it yesterday? I'm just... I just randomly look. 2:04 I just looked at my script. Played a Darwin Blanch? Yeah. 2:07 I went through the men's and women's [laughs] rankings sometime in the last few months, and I'm like, "How far do I have to go down before I don't recognize names?" Oh, that's always fun. 2:15 It's like when Paul Skore- Yeah... doesn't recognize a pitcher who gets called up. He's... I'm like, "If you don't know who that pitcher is, nobody does." Oh, it's terrifying. 2:21 It's like the first round of a PGA Tour event. The answer- Gil will be like, "Who's that guy?" I'm like- [laughs]... "I have no idea." The answer... That's right. I do that with golf with you. Like, "You know who it is?" 2:29 And you're like, "Nope." Like, in January, "Kelly, who's, who's a Rio Hisatsuda?" I'm like, "I have no idea." The- Didn't realize he was gonna be hanging around for the whole year... 2:37 the answer for me was I had to get to, like, 140th before I didn't recognize somebody. But is... And Zach might recognize, 'cause Zach plays- Sure... Zach bets Challenger Tour stuff. 2:46 Uh, the one that I'm looking at right now, again, none of our bets are in play, none of our match bets, but, uh, Medvedev is on his way to having a two-set lead over Gorsney, so Medvedev cruising. Nakashima down a set. 2:59 Now, that's the Djokovic quarter. We have Medvedev seven to one. A lot of other people have Nakashima targeting the same quarter, figuring it wasn't gonna be Novak's year. 3:10 Nakashima goes down, we're looking good with Medvedev. Where- But it, a long way to go. It's best of five. Where are you, where are you at? What website are you at right now to check tennis scores? 3:19 I- What's your go-to tennis score site? Usually Flashscore, but this I'm just looking at on Google. Okay. Yeah. 'Cause Flashscore you can see how, point by point, how it went. Um, okay. [smacks lips] Heat check. 3:33 Gool up 3-2. Okay. I'm sorry. Just looking at scores now too. Oh, listen to this. We got more tweets. Hold on. They're all about Roy Rogers and McDonald's. 3:40 Robert Schaefer, "One of my favorite parts of shooting down to Jersey is hitting Roy Rogers still at multiple rest stops along [laughs] the, the, uh, the GSP." The, uh, Garden State Parkway, for those who don't know. 3:53 David Griffin, "McDonald's at East West Highway, what a flashback as it was right near my high school, BCC. I remember the growing number served." Bethesda Chevy Chase High School. Famous alumnus, 4:02 Tommy Davidson from In Living Color. What was the, what was the Double R Bar at Roy Rogers? Double R Bar was, I wanna say roast beef and a burger. Okay. Was it ham and a burger or roast beef and a burger? 4:12 I think it was roast beef and a burger. Chris, Chris Lekka texting in. Yeah, Double R Bar was my jam. Double R Bar was the best, he said, "And the fri- fried chicken better than KFC." 4:19 Ooh, I don't remember the fried chicken. I'll tell you what was great. Is that a real- The coleslaw was great too. Good coleslaw. All right. Yeah. 4:26 RobbieJ9, uh, RobbieJ920, "I'd be pu- I'll be pulling for Ostapenko to make a deep run simply because I love hearing the greatest nickname in tennis, 'The Hamburger.' Brings a smile to my face every time." 4:36 Well, we're fading, uh, Ostapenko with Tatiana Maria, so I hope you're not right, but I appreciate the sentiment. 4:41 I will say this, the migration of a nickname on this show is fantastic, 'cause I would call her The Hamburger, and then Drew Dinsick migrated it to The Hamburglar. Burglar, yeah. 4:51 And now everybody calls her The Hamburglar sometimes, yeah. Willie B. Bettin, going back to the Wheel Hill segment, says, "Fraudulent bookmaker?" Is that what he called him? [laughs] Okay. Heat check. 5:00 Oh, by the way, here's, here's the six tennis plays earlier if you missed today's new ones. On the men's side, Jacob Fearnley against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Lloyd Harris as a big dog plus 195 versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. 5:12 James Duckworth +142 versus Yibing Wu. Quack, quack, quack. I'm with you on Duckworth. [laughs] 'Cause I've never heard of Wu. La- [laughs] ladies' side, Oksana Selekhmeteva +147 versus Kamila Rakhimova. 5:25 And then the tie, Lan- Lanatara Rudi +350. Huge dog against Wimbledon champ- Ooh... Linda Noskova. And then Caty McNally +108 versus Emma Navarro, battle of two Americans. I played McNally as well. Nice. 5:39 With you on that one. Fearnley, Harris, Duckworth men's side. Selekhmeteva, Tara Rudi, McNally on the ladies' side. All right. Hey, great job with the pronunciations. Thanks, buddy. That was better than me. 5:48 Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it. Shocking, I know. All right. We, uh, heat check on MVP, NL, AL, and Cy Young. Three of these are donezo, in my opinion. Okay. And we've, we've made the case for them now for months. 6:01 I hope people bet- All of, both of these guys, because they've gone from, from when we started talking about it, they were plus money propositions, both of them. And now they are wild prohibitive favorites. 6:12 Talking about NL Cy Young, excuse me, NL MVP and AL MVP. First NL MVP, Pete Crow-Armstrong is now -1400. And our reasoning, or at least my reasoning here on the show was, 6:25 all things being equal, and all things were kind of equal. I know people are like, "Hey, but what about Shohei's pitching?" Yeah, but still, he hadn't pitched in a while, and my point was if all things are kind of equal, 6:37 voters are gonna look for any reason to give it to someone other than Shohei because they know that most years they're going to kind of have to give it to Shohei because of the pitching. 6:46 Now, Shohei had 85 2/3 innings of great pitching, 1.79 ball. But hasn't pitched since j- let's see. Hasn't pitched since, uh, I don't know, July 3rd due to left knee inflammation and right biceps tightness. 7:02 And listen, I understand that it might be not correct to do this, but these are human beings, and y- they're facing the prospect of having to give Shohei 10 to 12 MVPs. You look for a reason out. 7:13 And now j- by the way, Pete Crow-Armstrong has made this easy now for us. Five home run outbursts this weekend. His WAR is better than that of Shohei. Average right on par. 7:23 By the way, on base and slugging now are really on par with Shohei too. They weren't before, right? Shohei at least had him in the slash categories. He doesn't really have him on those anymore. 7:32 But homers he leads by eight, 38 to 30. Stolen bases 32 to 10. More runs, 100 to 88. More ribbies, 91 to 80. His WAR at FanGraphs is 9.3. 7:43 Even if you combine Shohei's hitting and pitching WAR, it does not add up to that of PCA. So to me, by the way, did I make that up? 3.9, uh, dun-dun-duh. What's his WAR here? 6.8. Total. Oh, no, actually they do. 8:00 They do exceed, uh, his 9.3. But like I said, this is g- they were looking for a reason, and now Pete Crow-Armstrong is gonna win this award. He is absolutely gonna win this. He's -1400. 8:10 Yordan Alvarez has been saying the whole time through, even when he was in plus money, he's winning the Triple Crown race in the AL. He's winning other categories. 8:19 Right now, Kelly, he still leads in average, 317 in the American League. That's pretty good. He's tied for homers with Junior Caminero at 37. Okay. 8:27 So his Triple Crown status is, is now shaky 'cause Caminero's making a run at him in home runs. They're even. He leads in RBI with 94. Uh, on base percentage, he leads that in the American League, 432. 8:39 He leads in slugging, 605. Talking about Alvarez. He's second in hits, 155 behind Yandy- uh, Yandy Diaz of the Rays. And he's second in runs scored, 91 runs to Miguel Vargas of the Chicago White Sox. 8:52 It's Yordan's, and Yordan's -2500, and has always been Yordan's. Well- Everyone was waiting for an injury. Never happened. What do you think about the, uh- Those are donezo... 9:00 trying to pull up, like, the Triple Crown props that I've seen. Even if Shohei comes back and has a good pitching outing or two, I think it's donezo in the NL. 9:07 Okay, so, like, this was, like, two days ago, I think I saw this, so yeah, I'm quoting a bad number. I saw the no price on him to win Triple Crown at, like, -350. 9:17 Doesn't that s- Doesn't that- That is a terrible number... doesn't that sound too strong? Yeah, because Junior- Everything you just went through... they're, they're tied in home runs. 9:23 And he's not, like, h- yeah, I mean, he's tied in home runs with Junior Caminero. All it takes is that and it's, it's over. All right, NL Cy Young is done too. 9:30 We've been talking about this even when Jacob Miezierowski was in short minus money. These are all leading in MLB. Forget NL. But he leads the major leagues in ERA 1.73. We're talking about Miz now, The Miz. 9:43 150 batting average against. These, the Jacob Miezierowski stats need to be talked about more. Let me repeat. Yep. 1.73 ERA, 150 batting average against, all first in Major League Baseball. 0.75 whip, first in MLB. 9:59 79 hits allowed, 29 earned runs allowed. First, first MLB. 222 K's, first Major League Baseball. 38.9% K rate, first Major League Baseball. His WAR is tied with Sanchez, Christopher Sanchez at 5.7 WAR for pitchers. 10:14 Tango numbers on Miz. Remember Tom Tango, he's picked, uh- Mm-hmm... 34 of the last 40 or 32 of the last 38, I can never remember correctly. Cy Young, I think it's 34 out of 40. 10:24 I think he's done it for t- the last 20 years. It would be 34 out of 40 correctly. 82.7 Miz, 74.9 Sanchez. Miz is running away. That one's over too. I got, okay, couple questions real quick. 10:37 This applies to both the NL awards, MVP and Cy Young. What numbers would you have to have available to you to even consider a bet on Chris Sale or Shohei Ohtani? 10:47 'Cause as you're going through all this, I'm like, "This is done." Ch- Chris Sale- You're only getting seven to, half to one... Chris Sale would have to be exponentially greater. You'd need another zero for me. 10:58 Like, it just w- it's not gonna happen. Like, if I threw out 30 to 1, would you g- would you bet it? No. Absolutely not. Yeah, I'm not betting. Okay, this is my point. And Shohei Ohtani then. 11:03 Shohei you could, you can make. Hey, what if he came back tomorrow and he had four ridiculous outings on the mound? But is that, like, is that realistic at this point? No, he's not gonna come back tomorrow. Yeah, okay. 11:13 Yeah, I just- Yeah... I just, it's, you know. The one that is up for grabs is AL Cy Young, and I still don't know the answer to this one. Cam Schlittler, 12 and 6 with a 2.09 ERA, 201 K's, has given up 38 earned runs. 11:28 Dylan Cease of the Blue Jays, nine and five, so three fewer wins, 2.33 ERA, so behind by 24 points in ERA. 217 K's. That's six- 16 more K's than does Schlittler. 11:40 Way higher K percentage at 36.1% than Schlittler's 30.9%, and he's given up 39 earned runs, one more than that of Schlittler. Tango numbers. Tom Tango numbers. Schlittler 75.9, Cease 66.9. He doesn't have it close. 11:57 Schlittler, by the way, is -170. Dylan Cease is +145 in the market. So Tango's numbers corroborate that. Why does Tango's numbers corroborate that? Because Tango's formula that has picked 34 out of the last 40-... 12:10 eschews advanced stats and goes right to the baseball card stats of innings pitched, earned runs. That one's a washer run, but innings pitched, Schlitter 163 2/3, Cease 150 1/3. 12:24 Strikeouts, Cease has the advantage, but wins. Wins is big. I know we say it doesn't matter, but apparently maybe it's back-tested. 12:34 I don't know if he's, if he did it that way, but either way, wins seems to seep in to voters' thoughts whether we like it or not. 12:42 [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 12:57 In case you haven't noticed, football is back, and VSiN Pro gives you everything you need to bet smarter this season. 13:02 Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get instant access to our updated NFL betting guide featuring post pre-season updates, week one betting systems, contest strategies, and fresh best bets from VSiN's experts. 13:12 You also receive our college football betting guide with previews of all 138 FBS teams' power ratings, proven betting systems, and best bets from VSiN's sharpest minds. 13:21 Your VSiN Pro subscription also includes daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop tools, 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app. 13:29 Get started for just $9.99 or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Sign up now, vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Continuing coach thought bubbles. Mm-hmm. 13:41 John Harbaugh's like, "Why won't this kid slide?" Talking, just looking at Jackson Dart. Oh, Mike's pictures? Yeah. "Why won't this kid slide?" [laughs] And then Kevin Stefanski's like, "Ha, I got another jab." 13:50 Your Mike, your Mike McCarthy call is great, though. [laughs] Like, we've seen that expression- Yeah... so many times. A million times. 13:57 It really does read, "Well, guess I'll, guess I'll try this play, see if Rogers runs it." Call play action again. Yeah. [laughs] He's just gonna change it at the line of scrimmage, whatever. 14:06 Uh, Poke Therapy on Twitter, "I like tracking tennis scores on Bet365. Only thing is, make sure you don't have it open when watching tennis, it'll be like a point ahead of the TV." That's, that's true. 14:16 John Balducci, "Does anyone else remember the old Arby's sign that was the cowboy hat? I do." Yeah. Rockville Pike had that one. I think there might be one here in Vegas that still has that. 14:24 I, I was gonna say, I think they're- Yeah... I think they're still around. Yeah, I think one in, uh, Arby's are, yeah, Arby's are everywhere. Let's go M- No, but like the signs. Like you're talking- The signs are... 14:31 I think scattered at least. Yeah. Let's Go Mountaineer Stable says, "An F and a B? Just LOL'd in my quiet office at work when Will Hill dropped that gem. Best show in sports, hands down." 14:40 Thank you, Let's Go Mountain- Mountaineer Stable. 14:43 Charles in Connecticut, uh, "Agree that Roy Rogers fried chicken better than KFC, especially dipped in the horseradish sauce, and my preferred choice over any of the burgers." 14:50 I could read more tweets, but I won't because he'll get mad, A, and B, he might have eaten at Roy Rogers in his past as well. 14:57 From Pittsburgh, PA, it's Toddy Wishnev, everybody, the host, or I should say the star of Wishnev Wednesdays, the star of the Megapod, which comes back next week for week one of the National Football League. 15:08 What's up, Toddy? By all means, let's talk more about fast food when the FIBA Women's World Cup starts on Friday, all games on Adrio Backs. Now, I would like to take a shot at- [laughs] Adrio Backs... 15:20 your friend William Hilton trying to give me the business about being right on everything when the guy gives out the first three and first five in the Marlins game, but yet doesn't even tell you minus 120 or minus 158, how are you supposed to 15:34 know? Thank you, Will, and thank you, Gil, for showing both of you you're inanity. Thank you. Todd Wishnev, everybody, @TWishnev on Twitter. Um, Todd, two questions. 15:46 One, you're not betting the FIBA World Cup, are you perhaps, in the WNBA? Are you? Uh, I, I just found out two seconds ago that it's on TV, so I may because I know a lot of these girls on a lot of these teams. 15:57 'Cause there's girls from the WNBA on all the different teams. Like France has Gabby Williams and Marine Johannes, and China has a bunch of girls that I know. 16:06 You know, so I know these teams, so maybe I might dabble- Okay... in the live if they're live. S- such an awkward break this late in the season, isn't it? It is. I needed- Yeah... a break. 16:17 I had r- I had run it all the way up to 21 units and now I'm down to only up two units. Oh, man. I just totally lost my, my, my, uh, mojo in it. But, you know, what are you gonna do? What are you gonna do? 16:27 Your FIBA World Cup Women's outright odds, USA minus 400, France eight to one, Belgium 10 to one, Australia 16 to one, everybody else 25 to one or longer. Well, we're gonna dominate. We, meaning us, the US of A. 16:44 Oh, okay. Okay. Todd, question- WNBA haters like you and Will should not be saying we- We're not WNBA haters. I like it. I like the league. Yeah. What are you talking about? No, no, no, no. I know you. 16:55 Just, just 'cause you- I know you and Will, your types... just 'cause you hate Caitlin Clark, that's a whole different story. 16:59 Okay, what do we have- You're probably in favor of them throwing, uh, different things on the court that are, that can't be said in- I am not in favor... in nice company. That's not true. Oh, I'm sure you are. 17:08 I'm not, I'm not pro that. I'm sure you are. Um, have you eaten at Roy Rogers before? Have you in your past? Yes? I mean, is that a serious question? Okay. Is that a serious question? 17:15 [laughs] Well, I w- I would like to... Obviously that's a yes. Where, where's the fried chicken rank, Todd? [laughs] Is that a serious question? Where's the fried chicken rank? Have you ever had the fried chicken? 17:24 I, you know what? I haven't eaten any of that stuff in over five months. My blood sugar is good. I, I don't even wanna talk about it. Okay, that's right. We can't put it in his head. All you buddy. All right. 17:33 We don't wanna put it in his head. That kind of, that kind of discussion is just terrible. That's right. And you, you should know better as a thin guy. He, he, he cannot have the, even the discussion. He can't get... 17:42 I don't want it to seep into his brain. All right, college football- True... week zero happened last week obviously. You are back at it live betting college football, and you, uh, have some lessons to impart for us. 17:55 I, I mean, I don't know if they're lessons, but I would say that there may be some little insights into what, you know- Different scenarios and stuff, which I think are interesting. 18:04 Uh, you know, I wasn't watching the Robert Morris game in the first half. They were playing some... It w- you know, they've got the [laughs] they do have ESPN+ on a lot of these games, so I watched the second half. 18:12 But I'm looking at the stats and I'm like, "Oh my God, these teams can't move the ball at all." So I played under 31 and a half, and I lost because of a defensive touchdown. 18:21 Uh- But in my mind, it was the right play- Mm-hmm... because, you know, typically you don't see the defensive touchdown. So that was an interesting situation. Uh, the... 18:30 Here's what, here's one I wanted to talk about, was kind of interesting. Florida State was playing New Mexico State, okay? 18:36 They're, like, a 30-point favorite, and this is where, when you watch a lot of games and you look at a lot of statistics, you can start to glean insight. 18:44 What are the stats supposed to look like in a game where it's 31-point spread? You know, what... You should know what it's supposed to look like, okay? I'm watching the game. 18:54 Y- you're looking for midway second quarter Florida State to be averaging 9 or 10 yards a play because they can't be stopped even in the slightest bit, and you're looking for the other team probably to be averaging two yards a play. 19:04 That's kind of what it should look like. 19:06 It didn't look like that because then s- New Mexico State was moving the ball, and Florida State was moving the ball, but they're only averaging, like, seven and a half yards a play. Score was 17-7. 19:16 I said to myself, "For sure New Mexico State team total is the correct thing to play over." Now why do I say that? The pregame was 53 and, and Florida State 31. 19:28 Now if you, if you don't know how to do a pregame team total from just knowing the spread, you take half of the total, which is t- let's say 50, let's just say, call it 54 to make it easy. 19:39 27 is half, and if the spread is 30, let's say, that's 15 for each way. So that's 27 plus 15 is 42. 27 minus 15 is 12, half of the 30-point spread, right? And you get a team total 42-12. 19:56 That's where what you're looking for is a 30-point spread on a 54 total. 42-12 is what the team totals are gonna be around, 'cause that's, if you add it up, that's 30 and that's 54, right? 42 plus 12 is 54. 20:10 The confluence of spread and, and total. So you know pregame- Yes. Mm-hmm. Right. 20:13 So you know pregame people are looking for New Mexico State to score 12, and they, and they're looking for Florida State to score around 42. 20:21 So it's 17-7 midway, maybe a little bit into the second quarter, and I see New Mexico State's moving it at about four and a half yards a play. They really shouldn't be moving that well. They are. 20:31 I'm like, "I gotta get on this over," on it, because I know New Mexico State is gonna score. Now I sh- I thought, "Should I play New Mexico State team total, or should I play just the total of the game?" 20:41 Which was right around 52 at that point. I thought to myself, "Well, Florida State isn't averaging nine yards a play, but still seven and a half yards a play. 20:49 They'll probably continue to score, especially in the second half, and I know New Mexico State's gonna score, so I just, I'm just gonna play the total of the full game." Ended up I played, like, over 53. 21:00 I think, uh, New Mexico State did score, and had I played their team total, which I think at that point was maybe around 14 and a half or something, they ended up with 17. 21:08 Uh, and I believe Florida State had 34, something- Yep... something around there. 21:12 But the point is, I outsmarted myself because I played the full game total instead of the, the team total New Mexico State, which I really liked. 21:20 But I thought to myself, "Hey, it's probably better just to do the full game total because you're gonna get a New Mexico scores, and Florida State sooner or later is gonna start to roll." 21:28 That was my theory, and I lost by two points, but would've won the New Mexico State side. I- The point that I'm trying to make, I guess, is... Go ahead. No, I was gonna... I said, "Well, no, finish your thought. 21:37 No, I have a follow-up." 21:39 The point you were trying to make is- The, the point that I was, uh, that I'm trying to make is if you watch enough of these games, you know what a 30-point underdog statistic should look like in the second quarter. 21:49 It's a awesome point, yeah. And I knew that New Mexico State was moving the ball too much to have a team total that low. Okay. Similarly, USC as well. USC had a similar game with, uh, San Jose State. 22:01 San Jose State was moving the ball too much to have such a low total. I don't remember exactly what it was, but it was very low. Okay. Uh, here's my one follow-up. 22:11 To the person who bets in-game or is an aspiring in-game bettor who likes what you're saying but would have this question, uh, would say, "Yeah, that makes sense, Todd, but what, uh, why wouldn't I think... 22:23 I understand what you're saying, but why wouldn't I conversely think, oh, yeah, that's what's happened. This ought to regress to the mean." In other words, it ought to regress to what the pre-flop number is. 22:35 Wouldn't the res- wouldn't the counter to that counter be, "We don't know what these teams are yet," so there is- Yeah... like, how can you even know what regression to the mean even means at that point? 22:45 But also I think that, that I've watched enough of these games to know that if it, uh, 20 minutes into the game, if New Mexico State was moving the ball as well as they were... 22:55 Now, I'm not saying they weren't moving the ball great, but they were moving it, you know? And maybe averaging four and a half yards a play. That's not gonna regress. That should not even be happening, period, okay? 23:05 In that kind of game. 23:07 The fact that it's happening at all, it's only gonna get worse for Florida State 'cause as they get further ahead, they're gonna put in second and third string, and that team might even move the ball more, which is what we saw in San Jose State. 23:17 Early on, they only had the one touchdown, and then late they put on a bunch of touchdowns because they could move it a bit against USC's first team. They could move it a lot against USC's second and third team defense. 23:28 So I don't think the regression happens as much in scenarios like that. Always fascinating. Todd Wishnev, everybody. Is the Discord open, or are you full still? Uh, I think we're full. I mean, we might have some spots. 23:42 I'm not sure yet. I haven't figured that out. Okay. Stay tuned on that. Thank you, Todd. Todd Wishnev, everybody, @TWishnev. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 23:57 [laughs] Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort and Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Radio's Gil Alexander, television's Kelly Billings. Heyo. You good? Oh, I'm great, man. I'm just reading up on Ely, Nevada. 24:09 You know the first time I ever heard of Ely, Nevada was Chrissy Anders. My shbooka once brought up Ely. He once did a Beating the Book podcast from a payphone in Ely, Nevada, I believe. Are you serious? 24:19 I'm pretty sure that happened. This was a, uh... Man, I, I don't think I've ever read this about a city before. E- Ely was founded as a stagecoach station. 24:29 And Ely comes up because Mark Borchardt was traveling from- Yeah, true... Montana to, uh, back to Arizona. He's back home, yeah. Drove through it. With, with the dogs in the car, his actual dogs, his pets. 24:37 Um, and he made it. A whole 3,900 people live there as of 2020. Wow. [laughs] Mark Borchardt joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You may know him better as BaseWinner. 24:47 You can follow all his stuff @basewinner, basewinner.com. He joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert back where he lives. How you doing, Mark? I'm doing great. 24:57 Yeah, Ely, Nevada, not a bad place actually. The weather's better in the summer. T- was beautiful up there when I... I stayed the night there, uh, at, at a... What the hell was that place called? 25:07 The Ponderosa Hotel Casino. Oh, wow. Nice. A dog friendly casino. And, uh, so it's pretty cool. And they have... You know, I'm a big track and field guy, do Master's track, and they have... 25:17 White Pine High School has a brand new... I mean, they must have spent at least a million dollars on that track. It's a great facility. 25:24 I'm thinking about, you know, Weingarten used to say, "Hey, we're gonna have a handicapper, uh, headquarters," like a camp. Like a, like a c- what was it? W- a compound, you know? A compound, yeah. 25:33 And I think that the handicapper compound out there- Oh, wow... would really work well. Uh, but, uh, yeah, so I got down twen- 1,400, uh, miles driving with dogs in a packed c- a Land Cruiser. 25:44 Uh, uh, I really saw the West Coast. I, that's what I, that's what I gotta say, Gil, right? You, you said in there, I don't want to let this slide, you said you're a big fan of track and field. 25:52 What w- what event did you used to do in track and field that we found so amusing? Well, I actually trained for the pentathlon. Oh, wow. 26:01 So it's the, uh, the first event's a f- it's a long jump, and then it, uh- A two event... the javelin, 200 meters, discus, and 1,500 meters. So yeah, I've really, I've... 26:10 That's one of the things I do outside of handicapping, uh, that I'm, I'm r- super serious about, you know, for a 56-year-old guy. So it, it, it- I was gonna say, what, what leads one in that direction? 26:21 W- what, when do you wake up and say, "You know what I'd like to do today? I'd like to throw a javelin or learn how to." W- w- when did that start for you? Well, I li- I've always liked to run. 26:30 There's a, there's a really nice, uh, talk about a great facility at Paradise Valley College here i- in, in, in Scottsdale, or outside of Scottsdale. 26:38 And, uh, so I've always run and sprinted and, and, uh, couple years ago I s- I started the long jump, and then I thought, "Well, you know what? I can, I can throw the javelin." 26:46 I did it a little bit when I was in my 30s, the, the pentathlon, and, uh, I said, "Well, I can go back and, and do that." So it, it, uh, it, you know, I love being outdoors, Gil. It, it, it's really... 26:56 It's you're, you're sitting on a computer all day, uh, grinding numbers, writing code, and handicapping. It's nice to get out and, and get some fresh air. 27:03 You ever done the steeplechase, Mark, where you're hurdling in the water? I did. You ever done that one? No, I don't. But I have a really good friend, Flash, who, who actually went to the- Flash [laughs]... 27:11 World Masters Ch- [laughs] Hi- his name's Flash, and he's really good, and he went to the World, World Masters Championship. It was in, uh, you know, you would like this, uh, Da- uh, South Korea. 27:20 Uh, Da- Daegu, is that how you pronounce it? Yeah, that, that's where he went, that Why would I love South Korea? Uh, Daegu. What are you trying to say? [laughs] I'm sorry, go ahead. 27:27 No, I, I think you vacation there, I think that you li- I've been there once. I think that you, I didn't know. I, I may know, I may know a, a Korean, yes. Mm. Yeah, okay. Yes, okay. Yeah. Oh. 27:38 We're just waiting for you to continue now. M- Mark, was that the end of Flash's story? Flash. Flash went to Korea what? He, he won. He won the steeplechase for I think that he's 45 to 49 age group, and he won it. 27:47 It was, it was a good race. I, I, I'm very proud of him. Didn't, uh, Boss Hogg in Dukes of Hazard call his little basset hound Flash? [laughs] I believe. I think that's, that's what I picture every time. 27:56 Wait, Mark, Mark, have you ever... Sorry, but we talk to Drew Didsick once a week. Yeah. Like, have you ever, have you ever handicapped track and field? Like, have you ever bet this during the Olympics or anything? 28:05 Yes, I ha- well, I actually have a really good friend, and I can't disclose who it is 'cause he, he, he told me never disclose who the friend is, and he actually... 28:12 At Bookmaker, they had, uh, they were the only available lines, and he was really good. He would do the Diamond League and, and the Olympics, and, uh, they ended up, they, they ended up taking the markets off. 28:23 Uh, he, and he's like, he's like, "I'll give you the plays, but you gotta, you gotta monitor how much you bet 'cause th- they're gonna know it's me." I'm like, "Okay." A- and I did and, and but, uh, I, I can't... 28:32 I will tell you guys, uh, who it is off air, but I can't- All right... I can't do it on air 'cause I vowed secrecy to the guy. Love it. I love that. Does it rhyme with Mason Mine Martin? No. Okay. No, no. 28:42 Very, uh Got it... well, I can't, I don't want to get... I'll tell you guys, I'll tell you guys- Okay. All right... uh, off air, yeah. [laughs] Okay. What'd you land on in baseball today, Mark? What are you betting? 28:51 Well, you know, today I'm gonna, this is gonna be the best parlay for, for Fezzik in the history of parlays. Oh. It's, it's the Yankees Dodgers, a Moneyline parlay. Let's go. 29:02 And, uh, I mean, if, if that's as blue bud- blood and square as it can be, that's it, but you know, the numbers line up here. Uh, I've got, uh, I've got the, the Yankees with Schlitter. 29:13 I got them about minus 201, and, and they're in the market about minus 160, so I think that's a good play. And then, uh, Yama will be there today, Gil, I think. 29:22 Uh, the Dodgers minus 240, I think they should be closer to minus 300. Uh, you know, this Dodger team has been very sketchy as of late. I've, I've bet this... 29:32 Oh, and I'm gonna do this too, team total Dodgers over two and a half. You can get that at minus 108. I think it should be about, a- minus 134 to be precise- Oh... 29:41 uh, based on the pr- a run projection and the Poisson calculator. Uh, but, uh, I would put those together in a parlay. I'd, I'd bet both of them on the run line too. 29:49 You can get them both on the run line about even money, Gil. Okay. You have a straight bet for us so that Fezzik doesn't lose his mind? Yeah, let's, let's go, let's, let's do this one. 29:57 Uh, uh, I think you'll appreciate this bet. Baltimore minus one and a half, minus 105. Bring, bring back some childhood memories- Yes... for Mr. Gil. Yeah. 30:05 And, uh, it, it, Sugano is the worst guy on the board today from a p- Uh, hits per plate appearance, total bases per plate appearances allowed. League average is 0.36. He's at 0.475. 30:19 There's only five pitchers that are worse than him, and I think four of them have been, been released. So that's a good sign for the- [laughs]... for the, uh, for, [laughs] for the Orioles. 30:27 Um, and, and so I think that- Wasn't, wasn't Sugano the guy that, like, if you blindly tailed the Rockies when he pitched, of any starting pitcher in baseball you made the most money backing him too? Wasn't he the guy? 30:38 I think you're right. Yeah. He's one of those guys, you know, and, and Erod, the same way, we talked about him a couple weeks ago, where all the sabermetrics are terrible, and it caught up to him last night. 30:47 But, uh, I mean, he was just pitching, uh, outside of his, his ASS, uh, from a sabermetric standpoint, and, uh, so that caught up with him. And I, I think that, you know, you can... 30:58 Some of these guys are villains though, Gil. Like remember Martin Perez a couple years ago- God... and you would say, uh, you, Chris Young, go, go way back in the day, Chris Young, uh, for the, for the Royals. Dude. 31:09 Dude. And- Chris Young, I used to bet that dude, 6'10". I think he's now the GM of the Rangers, isn't he? But he's Chris Young. He is, he is. You're right. 31:16 Chris Young, when he pitched, man, I used to bet on him 'cause his sabermetrics were, just led me to it, and he would win more often than not. He would get the job done. But yeah, there's got, there's littered with guys. 31:27 When you bring up Martin Perez, though, I'm just, just thinking to myself, how are we still betting on this guy in 2026? Amazing he's still playing. It's crazy. 31:35 You know, these guys, uh, he's one of an anomaly, and Blackburn, uh, wh- when he pitched with the A's was the same way. I think he, think he's out of the league right now. 31:43 Last I checked, he was in the bullpen for the Yankees, but I think that they, they released him. 31:47 But, uh, you know, you have these guys who were, you have, you have really poor sabermetrics, uh, but they continue to win and, and, and, uh, that's the way Sugano is. 31:58 And it just, it leads you to a, a, a, I guess a, a philosophical question. How long are you gonna play the sabermetrics versus, uh- Yeah... you know, what the guys produce, right? Yeah. 32:07 Okay, two questions here before you go. One, did you come up with any team for the month of September as your favorite? Oh, I do, Gil. I actually have three teams, and- And congratulations... 32:17 I'll give you the exact- Congratulations on your f- I'll give you the exact pr- percentages, Gil. Okay. Uh, I've got, so like I've got the Dodgers as of today, and I, this updates every day for me. 32:26 I made this application. I'll have to share it with you. It's really cool. But they're 30.3%, uh, to, to win the, the month of September, so that should be plus 231. You can get 'em at DraftKings plus 320. Mm-hmm. 32:39 Philly, again, got me there last, last month. Congratulations. I've got 'em 13. Yeah, it was g- it was great. What a fun time, and I, I wrote about it as the... 32:47 If you guys wanna see, like, like, a fun success story about the, the month, the, the month simulations, go to my site, read my post, 'cause it, it was, it was a real good journey. 32:57 Uh, but I've got them, they should be plus 625. Uh, they're in the mar- mar- right now at plus 1,200. And then the third team that's showing value is, uh, the Guardians. Ooh. I've got them 11.2% to win. Wow. 33:10 Uh, so plus 793 would be, be the right, the right price, the fair price for me, and they're at plus 1,400. So I think that those three teams are the ones that are showing value. 33:19 And, and real quick, uh, I'm waiting for these division winner, uh, monthly markets, 'cause I'm, I actually have, uh, the application handicaps those too. And, uh, shout out to a couple people who actually listen to me. 33:31 You know, Bob, uh, Gettis, I think is how you pronounce his last name, uh, he, he tweets on your show a lot. Mm-hmm. He got the Astros at 14 to 1. 33:40 Uh, I think I gave that out maybe a week before the season, uh, or before the, the month ended, or cr- maybe 10 days or something like that. So I, I'm waiting for these division markets. 33:48 I don't know if DraftKings is gonna put 'em out. 33:50 Uh, th- they did about maybe on the 3rd or the 4th of the, of the, of the month last, last month, so I'm waiting for that and, and, uh, you know, hopefully we'll be able to talk about those as well, Gil. 34:01 Last question, 30 seconds. Yeah. Uh, we went over World Series match-ups earlier on the show. What would be a World Series match-up that you would be interested in seeing how it's priced, if you could bet it right now? 34:12 Mm, you know, I, I'm showing, like, uh, Tampa Bay maybe, and I, I have to look at the prices. I know, uh, I would say maybe Tampa Bay, like a Tampa Bay-Philly would be a good one. Um- 35 to one... 35 to one. 35 to one. 34:26 Is that, does that interest you? Might that be something that might interest you? 34:29 I would, I would have to r- I'd have to run the math though, but I have, I, you know, each, each team to win the World Series I have, and so, like, it's just basically a, a multiplication of both those teams. Okay. 34:38 So but that would be right off the top of my head, yeah. Mark Borcherdt, everybody. Thank you, Mark. Congratulations on the Phillies again in August. We'll recap all the bets next on A Numbers Game. 34:46 [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 35:01 A Numbers Game, un partido de numeros, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Once again, partido, used in Spain as the word for a game. 35:10 I don't want, uh, I don't want South American Spanish folks saying it's juego. Ladies and gentlemen, I have a tweet that corroborates my Dukes of Hazard, uh, memory on Flash. 35:22 Dude, I don't, I don't even know what Mark Borcherdt just talked about. That was, it was so entertaining, I, I, I laughed, I feel like I cried. It was an entire experience. 35:30 [laughs] He brought up, like, the Ponderosa Hotel, right, this hotel he stayed at. Yeah. I'm pretty sure this place does not have a website. Can you imagine a company in 2026 not having a website? 35:42 That's kind of fantastic. Right? Yeah. If you're gonna go with a brand, go with it full theme. I mean, just look, dude, you just, I typed this in, the Ponderosa Hotel & Casino. It's just Yelp reviews and Reddit reviews. 35:52 Hmm. By the way, uh, we should mention before I read the rest of the tweets, tonight is the final episode of the Circus Survivor: Quest for $18.7 Million doc. Yes. 36:02 Kelly prominently featured, according to Kelly, in, uh, episode number six, where he said, as Gil says- Psh... and then he just said anything that came into his mind. Yeah, I don't even know. 36:10 I, like, had a medical event after that or something. I gotta, I gotta watch that Uh, it is tonight. Premieres tonight, Wednesday night, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific. 36:18 Or you can go back if you missed any episodes, watch them at YouTube, at VsanLive. YouTube, uh, not YouTube TV, but YouTube itself, the VsanLive, uh, page. We have all of those episodes, one through six already up there. 36:34 Seventh and final episode tonight, the Quest for $18.7 Million Circus Survivor. Shout out to Steven Shalansky. Shout out to James Farrah- Yes... who, who produced this. Yes. Absolutely. 36:45 And our friend Matt Brown, I guess as well. Friend Matt Brown. But these- That's right... these guys have worked so hard on this all year long. Yeah, they did. It's incredible. Absolutely. 36:52 Uh, Props Prophet, "Went down the rabbit hole of nostalgic fast food chains and chains I can't find in LA. Roy Rogers was one. 36:57 I grew up in New York and remember going on Queens Boulevard, lived in Miami, and still crave the chicken soup from Pollo Tropical after a hangover." Wow. Hmm. 37:06 Charlie D USA number one has a picture of not of Boss Hogg holding Flash, but of Roscoe P. Coltrane holding Flash. 37:13 Uh, Del Mind the Gap Radio, "Back in the '90s when New Jersey Sports Line had a 900 score phone, I used to wear the Plantronics headset that Bass Winter was wearing in the last segment to answer the [laughs] score phone." 37:23 [laughs] "Roy Rogers for lunch in the '90s." Uh, LosVegas514, "Yo, Flash was Roscoe P. Coltrane's basset hound. I'm sorry. He barked and growled whenever Boss Hogg was around. Ruff, ruff." I didn't, I forgot about that. 37:35 You're right. He didn't like Boss Hogg. Trojan Ram, "Gil, it was Roscoe P. Coltrane [laughs] who owned Flash, not Boss Hogg." These, best listeners ever. 37:43 Keith Fournier, "In case nobody else has replied, I originally learned mind your P's and Q's as an old English pub thing from when they kept your tab of pints and quarts on a chalkboard." Wild. 37:52 Apparently there are, there are other origin theories. Yes, there are. It's not, no one knows for sure. I just can't believe how many people we've had tweet in that said they've heard that before. 38:02 I was like, I had to Google. There was the pin- the printing press one that we had earlier, and then here's one. Manners shortcut, uh, shortcut, the letters stand for please and thank you. Q. P's and Q's. 38:13 Please and thank Q. I mean, that makes, that makes more sense to me, too, even though it doesn't make sense. Um, [laughs] 38:21 Sh- Shrek McFee quote tweeting, "Lenora Sellers, who is interning at a, uh, at a golf, at a putt-putt golf course?" I thought it was a driving range. It was a driving range. It appears he's not taking it very seriously. 38:33 [laughs] Let me just put it that way. [laughs] All right, real quick, I got a couple things to follow up on- Yeah... uh, before we get to bets. Sano, is that, that was the pitcher for the Rockies? 38:43 I was trying to, I was try, as you and Mark were having this conversation- Yes. Yes... I was like, "Where, who has those money stats again?" I've got Covers Covers does. Yeah. Fourth. 38:50 14 and 10 would've made you- Oh, he's fourth now... a little over $1,100. He used to be first. At the Q3, uh, derivative show, he was the first. Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod. Uh, Mark brought him up right after that. Yeah. 38:59 21 and seven. Yeah. Yep, they're over $1,300. He's number one. It shows you those pitching stats are just like the blind betting thing is ridiculous with those guys. Oh, and then I wasn't crazy on that, uh, the, uh, 39:09 Triple Crown. You can get plus 350. Yes. On Yordan to win the Triple Crown? Yeah, at DraftKings. Wow. Right? So you got like 20-plus games, 20-some odd games left. 320. 320. He l- he leads RBIs, he leads... 39:26 Well, here's the thing. He's tied with Junior Caminero. We're talking about Yordan Alvarez. Mm-hmm. He's tied with Junior Caminero for home runs. 39:34 The, uh, again, the baseball card triple stats, uh, triple car- crown stats of home run, RBI, and average. Currently with RBI, that's the thing. I don't think he has a comfortable lead in, in RBI either. 39:44 His RBI lead is, let's see, he's got 94, and Pete Alonso has 91. Okay. So, okay. He has three, three RBI lead. And then average, I think average is, was he, he's, oh, average is he's 316. 40:01 Chandler Simpson of the Rays is 310. So average- Hey... average and RBI, he can kinda get there even if he's not spectacular at this point. Right. I mean, it's what, what, three and a half weeks? 40:13 Home run, home run's gonna be the issue. What's a better bet, that or that A's to have the worst, worst re- uh, what was that? Worst record in the AL West? The AL West, yeah. At plus 150. They were both great bets. 40:24 That, that got hit after, yesterday after we brought that up, of course. Yeah, everybody, everybody pounded that yesterday. Uh, Money on the Guz, "Later today, the Westgate College lines are coming out. 40:31 Either of you two studs signing up in the college contest?" I am not. I think he's talking about us. You know what? This year I think I'm gonna skip. Just like Grandissimo, I'm gonna take a year off, Gil. 40:40 [laughs] The, uh, this contest sign-up sheet, they have, you know, uh, millions. They have survivors. So I put, you know, one million, six survivor. Yeah. 40:47 Then you, I looked at the Grandissimo and I'm like, and I said the same thing to the guys. I'm like, "You know, I'm not gonna do, uh, Grandissimo this year, guys, if that's okay." 40:53 Two, two funniest things about signing up, it's that, it's that, and then do they still have, 'cause you don't have it signed up yet, do they still have the jacket size option? They do- Which drives me... 41:00 which I do not fill out for superstitious reasons. [laughs] Well, Steve Fezzik does. I'm pr- pretty sure I can confidently say that. Steve Fezzik doesn't fill, he fills it in. 41:08 Not only does he fill it out, he then shows up and gets a jacket when others win, and he invested. That's right. Although Fezzik, what was Fezzik's counter story to that? He goes, "It's not what it seems like. 41:18 I thought they were giving me, they were measuring me for the jacket size at the check ceremony," which he was invested in a winning entry. "I thought it was free. Turns out I had to purchase it at that point." Oh. 41:31 So I was like, "Why are you-" I don't remember the full story, yeah... but, but why are you letting yourself getting meas- get measured for it then? That's the- Right. Yeah. In the first place. Okay. 41:41 Steve's like- Yeah, I don't remember... "Free? I'll take the jacket." For free? Even if I'm an investor? Okay, recapping the bets. Here are the six tennis plays again. They have not started or they're about to start. 41:50 Men's side, Jacob Fearnley plus 117 versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Lloyd Harris plus 195 versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. James Duckworth plus 142 versus Yibing Wu. Fearnley, Harris, Duckworth on the men's side. 42:01 Ladies side, Oksana Selekhmeteva plus 147 versus Kamila Rakumova. Lan Lan Tara Rudi plus 350 versus Linda Noskova, and Caty McNally plus 108 versus Emma Navarro. We do have two pending from yesterday's. 42:14 Yesterday was again a three and three wash. Uh, we made again, like, five cents on the dollar we made yesterday. Long way to go for 0.05 of a unit. 42:24 And the two that are pending, one's a set a piece, Tatiana Maria against, uh, Jelena Ostapenko, and the other's four to four, Magdalena Frech against Evelys. No, Evelys, no, Iva Jovovic, pardon me. 42:36 Those are the tennis today. Um, and by the way, the big sort of the Medvedev, our Q3 men's side of things, oh, if you have Brandon Nakashima, it's not looking good. Medvedev is up two sets to none against Khursan. 42:51 He's sort of coasting there. I shouldn't say coa- He is, it's on serving the third set. But Nakashima down two sets and a break. So if we can get Nakashima out of the way- Wow... Daniil Medvedev 43:02 is very live in that quarter. Big Foe is still in that quarter too, though, it should be pointed out. You, sir. Oh, also Red Sox 28 to one, most wins September. Blue Jays plus 23, 25 most wins in September. 43:14 They both lost on September 1st, but we do have Dylan Cease on the hill tonight for the Blue Jays, I believe. And then Caleb Williams passing yards leader, 20 to one. Nick Benito, Defense Player of the Year, 14 to one. 43:25 Uh, for me, uh, te- uh, week one NFL Jags Jets six-point teaser, Jags Texans six-point teaser, Bucs Bengals under 51 and a half, and the Broncos plus three minus 120. Minus [laughs] I like how you finished that, 120. 43:43 Ear- earlier on the show, one from Will Hill. Earlier on the show, Will- William Hilliam, Wilson Hilson, Marlins Royals under four and a half first five. Orioles minus 130 versus the Rockies today. 43:53 College football, week one, Georgia laying the 46 and a half versus Tennessee State. Oh my God, remember him talking about laying all the points. I di- I don't know if I heard the spread. Oh, yeah. 46 and a half, whoa. 44:05 He's on Louisville catching seven versus Ole Miss. Uh, week one NFL, he's on the Cardinals plus 10 and a half versus the Chargers, taking the points with the Arizona Cardinals. 44:13 And then Seahawks to win the NFC West plus 215 from Will Hill. Also on the show today, uh, Tim Murray joined us. 44:21 He has Colorado, the Buffaloes plus seven versus Georgia Tech this weekend, and he too is on Louisville plus the points versus Ole Miss. So Will and Tim match on Louisville plus the points versus Ole Miss. 44:33 Was that the, uh... Yeah, I think that was the remainder of the, uh, the plays on today. What you got, Mark? Oh, my Mark Borchardt, of course. 44:39 Uh, Yankees Dodgers money line parlay [laughs] to make Fezzik's head explode off his he- off his body plus 126. Dodgers team total over, uh, as well today, over two and a half. That's gotta be a first five, right? 44:52 Team total over, two and a half? Yeah, I don't know. Yeah. I'm assuming that's first five. Uh, minus 108. Uh, and then the Orioles on the run line today for Borchardt. So Will is on the money line on the Orioles. 45:05 Mark is on the run line on the Orioles. There you go. Those are all the bets. A whole bunch of tennis again, all-day tennis. The weather appears to be okay, so we should get them all in today. 45:14 At least, you know, famous last words. Nakashima five points away from being bounced. Good for Medvedev bettors like ourselves. Let's go. Um, we've done all we can do. Prop Points is next. 45:26 John Hanson, who by the way, really good at what he does. The record speaks for itself. John Hanson next right here at VSAN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
