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Sep 3, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 3, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 3, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
46:44
1×
Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
0:59
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander. I'm a little buddy Kelly Bedell. Sup?
1:20
[sighs] Speaking of YouTube TV, is the Friday night, uh, São Paulo game between the Chiefs and the Chargers only on YouTube TV? Probably. Love when Gil's asking me these questions. [laughs] Sorry.
1:30
Probably, probably, probably a question for, for off-air. It's YouTube and YouTube TV. No, I think it's... Well, I don't know why it's saying it's just YouTube, but I think it might be both.
1:43
Anyway, point being, this is what it's come to, right? From the days of, what was that story I told from the, uh, late '80s, me having to call my mom to give me a play-by-play on a Skins game.
1:53
Now the pendulum has swung so far, it's like we're scrambling for all these different ways to get football games that are available to us. It's wild, man. Yeah. Yet is difficult in its own way.
2:04
So anyway, we'll all find it though, that's for sure. Mm-hmm. Uh, 'cause the NFL's the NFL. Uh, let's, uh, check in. This is like an annual appearance on the show, 'cause I don't know if we have him...
2:13
Maybe, maybe we have him twice a year. Uh- He's kind of a big deal, Gil. He's kind of a big deal. Would you call him the star of ESPN Bet, or would you, uh, say that's, uh, that's Tyler or Aaron?
2:23
I would call him the star. I'm going with star. I think that's fair. Yeah. Now that he's got his Survivor mustache rocking. He's growing it until he gets knocked out of Survivor.
2:31
It's our buddy Joe Fortenbaugh from ESPN Bet, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Joe? Gil, you're kind of faint in the background. Did your board op put me through correctly? [laughs] Yes.
2:42
You can't hear me? And there it is. There. Yes. No, I got you now. Whatever button needed to be flipped got flipped. How are you, my friend? It's great to be on. Thanks for, thanks for making the time, man.
2:51
How's, how's life at ESPN in, in Bristol? How's life on ESPN Bet? You enjoy doing SportsCenter? What's your favorite thing over there that you do?
2:58
[laughs] Favorite thing would be vacation in the summer right before football season starts. 'Cause I mean, you guys, if there's anyone who knows this, it's the boys in Vegas.
3:08
Because you understand, like, once we get going here, it's seven days a week.
3:12
Whether you're at a network or whether you're just grinding out on the daily trying to figure out where your edge is gonna be, it's seven days a week.
3:19
But it's a beautiful thing that we in- in- incorporate in our lives each and every year. So it's an honor to be at a place like that.
3:26
I would say my favorite thing is just the access I have to different people with information that they don't even realize is valuable.
3:36
Like, there are so many former players and coaches walking around those buildings, that if you can get their ear for a few minutes, one of the things they'll tell you when they recognize me and what I do, "You know, I don't really know any of the gambling stuff."
3:49
No, no, don't worry about it. You don't need to know the gambling stuff. I know the gambling stuff. Just start talking about the game, and I'll figure out where we go from there.
3:56
[laughs] That's probably my favorite thing. I, I, uh, I ask you this every year, and you never answer.
4:00
Who's the SportsCenter anchor that, uh, that you wanna punch in the face, that they just don't play along with your shenanigans on air? [laughs] And then conversely- Yeah, I- Yeah, conversely- Yeah...
4:08
who's the one you like the best? Yep, I've got an answer for that. You're still not gonna get it. [laughs] I've got a great answer for that. You're still not gonna get it. I think, I think when you... I, I've had...
4:19
There's a lot of great people you get to work with there. If you ever get a chance to go on with Randy Scott and Gary Striewski- Oh, okay... those guys are always looking to have a good time.
4:28
It becomes more of an improv comedy sketch, so you've gotta be on your game. The same thing, like, when you work with Elle Duncan. She's one of the fastest people I've ever met. She's also one of the most ruthless.
4:39
So if you're gonna take a shot, you better be ready for the counterpunch, and you better have something out other than that, or you're just gonna get embarrassed.
4:47
So those are people that force you to up your game to be at your best, which is one of the reasons I like working with them. All right.
4:53
Before we get to your favorite s- season-long NFL bets, maybe even a week one take, give... I, I've asked this of, of so many people this summer. I'll ask it of you.
5:01
What is the take or the, uh, or the consensus opinion, or at least anecdotally the opinion that you've heard more than multi- you know, more than once or twice, that you just can't get behind, no matter how many people try to argue it?
5:13
[laughs] Uh, if I had time to prepare, I probably would have a better answer for you.
5:19
One I got asked about this morning was this whole, "Well, the Eagles can't win the NFC East because it's been 24 years since we had a repeat winner in the NFC East."
5:28
And my first response to that is always, "What the hell does the 2007 NFC East have to do with the 2025 NFC East? Like, why are we talking about this?" But people like it 'cause it's a good talking point. Yeah.
5:41
I guess as I work my way through, anyone who's trying to hammer... Like, okay, here's one for you now that I've had a chance to BS my way to an answer. Joe Burrow for MVP.
5:50
I have too many people telling me about how it's Joe Burrow's year for MVP. Newsflash, you can't win MVP unless you win a bunch of games, and I don't think they're gonna win a bunch of games.
6:01
Like 21 of the last 22 MVPs have won 12 or more games in the regular season. And keep in mind, most of those were playing in a 16-game regular season, not a 17-game regular season.
6:12
12 of the last 12 have been a one or a two seed. I don't see that happening for the Bengals. He's gonna have the stats, he's a tremendous player, but we give that award to quarterbacks who win a lot of games.
6:24
He's a quarterback, he's not gonna win enough games. You're right about the fact that you gotta win a bunch of games, that's for sure.
6:29
Whether the Bengals do that or not, we'll see, but that, that's absolutely right, that that's, it- it, without almost, without exception almost, that that's how it ends up being for that award.
6:38
What are the ones, now that we've, you've had a whole summer to go back and forth on, on your thoughts, what are the ones, as we're, you know, the NFL regular season begins tomorrow, this just in, what are the ones that you now feel the strongest about season long?
6:51
Season long-wise, I mean, some of these prices have obviously moved, but I mean, I'm, I'll share my thoughts on this. Like, I'm, I'm pro Jacksonville this year. I like what Liam Cohen did with Baker Mayfield last year.
7:03
Mayfield had really started to come into his own. Career year with Liam Cohen.
7:07
This isn't to say Jacksonville's gonna win 11 games, but you hang that win total at seven and a half, and you show me what the rest of the AFC South looks like, I'll take them at plus 330, which is where I grabbed them to win the division.
7:19
I like them over the seven and a half wins.
7:21
I think Trevor Lawrence, obviously the stock is way down, but if that dude's anywhere close to what we remember at Clemson, and he just needs someone to unlock him, like we could see a really big season from Jacksonville.
7:32
Schedule sets up nice. Not perfect, but that's a team I'd play over. Minnesota's a team I'm looking under. No playoffs, things of that nature. You guys have probably gone over all the key reasons why.
7:44
The record in one-score games, and on top of this, um, I, I think it's very telling as I give you a week one bet here too, Monday night, the total in that game, 44 and a half in Chicago. I think that's an under.
7:56
People I've been talking to that are close to those teams, Minnesota, I, from what I hear, has been very sluggish in the preseason offensively. And I think that's basically them saying, "Yeah, they got this...
8:08
He's not a rookie quarterback, but it's his first year 'cause of the injury, that it's gonna take some time for JJ McCarthy to get going."
8:14
And I wouldn't be surprised if it takes Caleb Williams a little time, especially going against Brian Flores and Blitz. Flores Blitz is more than anybody in the NFL.
8:22
Caleb Williams was 24th in QBR last year against the Blitz. Now, that being said, Ben Johnson's gonna help him with that, but I think that's a team that you wanna sell is Minnesota. Um, I'm pro 49ers this year.
8:34
The schedule, the injury regression, all that stuff that a lot of people are talking about. I think Buffalo's the team in the AFC.
8:41
There's nothing sexy about that, but how rare is it that you get an elite team with an MVP quarterback that gets the schedule those guys get? I mean, come on, man.
8:51
Normally the best in the business are battling one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. One of their toughest games is Kansas City. That's gonna be a home game in early November.
8:59
They're set up beautifully, so if not now, when becomes that. So, uh, as I work my way around, I'm pr- I was pro Green Bay before Micah Parsons. I thought the defense was underrated.
9:10
Those are some of the teams where I land right now. Arizona's another one. I'm big on Arizona. Over the win total, I like them as a dark horse out west.
9:18
I still see the Niners winning the division, but I like Arizona to get into the playoffs this year. Do you believe that the Super Bowl team from the AFC comes from the Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City trio?
9:30
And which teams have a, if you believe that or not, which teams would you say is the similar group of teams that fr- from which a Super Bowl team will come out of in the NFC? How deep does it go? Okay.
9:41
That, really good question. So I would say yes, because I have Buffalo, and because if you give me those three, it's like, what great case can I make for teams outside of that? I like the Chargers.
9:53
I think they're a year away.
9:54
You know, I wanna like Cincinnati, but if there's anything we learned from last year's Super Bowl, you gotta have an offensive line, and you gotta be able to play some defense to win at that level.
10:04
Cincinnati's got neither of those things. Like, forget about the fact that the defense stinks. No one highlights the fact that the offensive line is garbage. Fl- Burrow was sacked like 48 times last year.
10:15
That guy could get hurt this season. So that's what's tough for me to come around on them. I don't think Houston's offensive line is good enough to get them to the next level. I wonder about CJ Stroud.
10:24
Like, Bobby Slowik is the OC, kind of screwed them up with his play calling, constantly putting them in third and long. I know he's, they've made some changes there, but I, I would say it comes from those three.
10:35
I'd go Buffalo, but I'm not high on Kansas City. Probably for a lot of reasons you've discussed. The record in one-score games is obviously one thing that stands out.
10:44
The one thing I don't think we hit on enough, if you remember when they got busted up by the Eagles in the Super Bowl, everyone kept talking about how tired they looked. They looked so tired.
10:53
They, they looked like they're out of gas. And then after the game, I think it was Kelsey who talked about how much it takes out of you year after year after year going to the Super Bowl.
11:02
Like, "Man, we've been to the Super Bowl four years in a row. It takes a lot out of you." Well, nothing's changed. They still went to the Super Bowl last year. They've been to the Super Bowl four of the last five years.
11:11
Like, I, I wouldn't be surprised if we see them break down as the season wears on. In the NFC, I don't know. Let's look at this one. Philadelphia, yes. Uh, Packers, yes. Niners, yes. I don't know.
11:23
I kind of, I wanna believe in Detroit emotionally, but you can't tell me that all those accord- those coordinators and assistants are good.
11:31
You can't tell me Ben Johnson's so great, Aaron Glenn's so great, and then when they leave, tell me, "Oh yeah, Detroit'll be fine. It's no big deal." Like, those two things can't exist together. That's a problem for me.
11:42
And then I might as well throw a little salt here, 'cause I know where you stand. There we go. I don't like your Commanders. I don't like your Commanders at all this season. No. Big, big fraud in Washington. Ah.
11:51
Big fraud. God. You look at the, you look at the quarterbacks, your crap defense beat up on last year. [laughs] It's a different story this year, my friend. That division still belongs to my Eagles Yes, it does.
12:04
Geez, could you have more energy next time? [laughs] This is terrible. Geez. Well, here's the thing. I'm sleepwalking in this. So, so listen, I- I- I'll let you in on a little secret.
12:12
So in order to try to keep things organized in my life, I go to couples therapy with my wife on Wednesdays. Couples therapy is freaking miserable. If I could use the F word, I'd have used the F word.
12:23
[laughs] It's just miserable. You go in there and you get criticized. So to get me after couples therapy, you know you're gonna get an animated Joe Fortenbaugh. I love it. Oh, man. Joe, uh- Well done, Joe...
12:32
Joe Fortenbaugh, star of ESPN Bet, with a, uh, a porn stache to say the least. That is fantastic. He will not shave till he gets knocked out of Survivor. Thank you, Joe. Appreciate it. Love you, boys.
12:44
Thanks for having me on. Good luck this week. Outside of couples therapy, comes on the show. Love it. We'll come back. Head to head NFL props next. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
12:55
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:00
Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
13:07
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:13
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:19
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:29
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
13:36
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. ShopToyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
13:45
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This paint inhalation thing is really getting to you, isn't it?
14:02
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14:12
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14:19
First Bet's in-app tools give you win, place, and show probabilities for each runner, so you can quickly and easily identify good value plays and improve your ROI. That's what you want.
14:28
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14:42
Gil Alexander, "We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the feedback." Best listeners in the game, Kelly. Have I ever mentioned that before? Chris Lee Miller, "How do I find the Megapod on X?
14:50
Will it be on your site, Gil? Thanks, really enjoy your show." Uh, it, the VSiN Live Twitter, uh, handle will put it out first. Yep. I will retweet it for the, uh, the Twitter Live portion of it.
15:00
But as far as the podcast is concerned, again, wherever you get your podcast. It is called the Beating The Book podcast. Don't look under Megapod. Look under Beating The Book. Um, and, uh, that is how you will find it.
15:13
Martin, uh, Bernstein, "What happens if Soto hits 50 homers and the Mets win the division? Is there a shot for him?" Yeah, well, the Mets aren't winning the division, I don't think, and I don't think he's hitting 50.
15:24
But the Mets, Mets winning the division is not, not something I think will happen. Um, but no, so I will say no. Kevin Ryan, "Gil, when can we get Todd and Fez on the same show? You and Kelly won't have to say a word."
15:35
Well, Todd and Fez will be on the Megapod today together. Will and I will just try to squeeze in words where we can. They've done, they've done stuff together before, right? Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah, okay. Oh, yeah.
15:43
JasonH11, "Gilly's lucky to have Todd.
15:45
He's willing to come on the show to boost ratings, and he hosts the Megapod, all while maintaining his number one tennis ranking in the 200 plus, uh, 250 plus pound renounced, uh, Orthodox Jew division."
15:56
And, uh, Todd corrects him, said, "Over 300 pounds." Kevin Ryan, "Gil, Burrow will win the award for the most ridiculous outfits worn each week on the way to the stadium."
16:06
Uh, Bill Margielewsky, "Megapod is a must listen to prepare you for your NFL week." Thank you, Bill. I appreciate that.
16:13
Jesse Welch, "Sorry fellas, but I had to pause ANG to go listen, uh, [laughs] to that Pablo Torre clip. I cannot wait to see what the Clippers conjure up to prove how pro- provably false- I, right?...
16:23
the accusations are." I mean, I'd real- I, I would really... A- after complimenting his journal- journalistic skills and integrity- Yes...
16:31
Gil, I really don't wanna say I watched a four and a half minute video and it seems like a slam dunk, but oh boy, it sure did.
16:37
[laughs] I think I might be, I think I might be getting a headache from the paint just now, just now as you speak. My eyes are burning. [laughs] Uh, let's do... I don't know if we're gonna make it.
16:43
Uh- [laughs] All right. Who are you higher on? Oh, this is, this is especially applicable right now- Yes... since, uh, we are- That's right... [laughs] since we are huffing paint.
16:51
[laughs] It should say, what are we higher on? Paint would be the answer. But who are we higher on? This is a head-to-head NFL prop segment here that we'll do for the whole season here. Again, this just in.
17:00
A special numbers game investigation reveals that the NFL season begins tomorrow with Philadelphia and Dallas. Who are you higher on? I like- Let's, let's start with, uh... Oh, I'm sorry, what were you gonna say?
17:11
I was just saying I like that, like I'm putting these together, right? Yeah. And I, I'm interested to see where you go because, yes, I looked for similar or exactly the same numbers for both pa- passing yards.
17:23
We're gonna do yardage. Okay. Uh, receiving and rushing touchdowns, I believe are the other ones I had in there. But these two are...
17:30
It, it, well, it's gonna be a pair, a pair of players, and, uh, I don't see them equal at all, Gil. We got five of these. Got five. Five of these head-to-heads. Yep. Let's begin with Jayden Daniels versus Sam Darnold.
17:42
Both are lined at 3400.5 passing yards. Exactly the same. Jayden Daniels of the Commanders, Sam Darnold of the Seattle Seahawks. Remember that. Little Photoshop.
17:56
Is that a Photoshopped picture, or is that from pre-season? I'm gonna go pre-season. Over 34 and a half. They're lining a great job. 3400 and a half passing yards.
18:03
Last year, for edification's sake here, Jayden Daniels threw in his rookie year for 3568. Was over that number by- There you go... 168 passing yards.
18:12
Sam Darnold, you may recall, with the Minnesota Vikings, of course, had a banner season, before it wasn't at the end. He threw for 4,319 passing yards. My answer to this one, who am I higher on?
18:23
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders. Yeah, me too. Um, I don't know that I, I don't know that I could consider an over bet on Darnold's number being that high.
18:33
How many times has he go- has he gone over this number in his career, Gil? That would be once. Once. That's right. Last year. And that's- With Justin Jefferson.
18:41
With Justin Jefferson, and he's gonna have, he's, he's got Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but that's out of the slot. Besides that, can we count on Cooper Kupp to be Cooper Kupp? I don't think we can.
18:50
I just don't think that he has the weapons, and I worry about him reverting to Sam Darnold of old. Me too. Ab- So for me, it's Jayden Daniels...
18:57
absolutely me too, and it is, is Jayden Daniels, look, it's not, it's not an over bet for me. We got Nick Whalen coming up next. He's a lot better with this type of stuff- Yeah...
19:04
with the season-long props and bets this, these kinds of things way more- Maybe we'll just throw these at him after this too... way, way, yeah, way more than we do. Okay. But I can't...
19:10
That was one where I'm like how are these two lined at the same number? I, it would be an under or no- a, an under or nothing for sure on that with Darnold. All right, let's do this.
19:18
Both of these guys are lined at 3,450 and a half passing yards, 3450.5 passing yards. Kyler Murray of the Cardinals, Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins. Who are you higher on?
19:33
My answer was Tua Tagovailoa. It is a per- it is a anti-injury bet in terms of head-to-head here for me. So this is, so okay, who am I higher on? Kyler Murray. I, I will go with Kyler. I think he has the better season.
19:49
But the reason for bringing, I wanted to put this one up is, okay, look at what the books are telling you the num- the number is.
19:55
They're telling you these two are lined exactly the same, and all you've heard all offseason is love for the Arizona Cardinals and how the Miami Dolphins are gonna fall right on their face.
20:05
And the books are li- lining them at the same, same yardage prop, so. May I give you my reason for why I go Tua? Kyler Murray has said openly this offseason, "I'm gonna run a bunch more this year. I was hurt."
20:17
That's one thing. The other thing with Tua, right, so Kyler had 3,851 passing yards. So in a year where he says, "Now I'm gonna run more," he exceeded this by just over 400 yards- Mm-hmm... last year.
20:29
Played a, played a, a relatively full season also, right? Tua only played in 11 games. He had 2,867 passing yards, so only 600 or 700 shy here roughly.
20:42
So I just think if Tua can just play, you know, y- Tua, you can even miss a month. I think Tua- Right... Tua will go over this number, but I think Tua will exceed... It, it all comes down to the injuries, right?
20:52
Both of these guys have been often hurt. Sure, right, yeah, yeah. Oft hurt. I, I will- I'll go Tua here... I don't know that I could actually bet an over on either one of them- No, I don't think I can...
20:59
because of that, like. Yeah, but you're just asking me who's, who am I higher on. Right. It's Tua. Here's another one. These, these guys are not exactly aligned, but they're close.
21:06
Geno, Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders, 3,575 and a half passing yards for the season is where he's lined. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos, 30, uh, 3550, so 25 and a half yards fewer is where he's lined.
21:22
Last year Geno threw for 4320 with the Seahawks. Bo Nix in his rookie campaign, 3775 for the Broncos. I'm going Geno here. Indoor, uh, indoor home games, he's great indoor career.
21:36
Cleve was going through some of those numbers. He has, he has interesting indoor-outdoor splits. Geno is great indoors, and Bo Nix, l- he had a...
21:43
Listen, by any measure, he had a much better rookie campaign than I thought he would- Mm-hmm... than most people thought he would. Um, good on him, but I'll go Geno no problem there.
21:54
Yeah, th- this is one, and you know, maybe, but maybe this one we'll ask Nick about, but I think Geno, it's Geno slam dunk for me. Yes, he's lined 25 yards higher. We can play the whole sophomore season with Bo Nix.
22:05
C- as you rightfully brought up earlier- Yeah... I think there are, there are questions. I don't think we should just assume he's gonna be great. Yeah.
22:10
Me and you are both high on the Broncos, but I'm not assuming he's gonna be awesome. What I, what I do think's gonna happen though is Geno's gonna...
22:17
Geno has shown over the past few years, a- and yes, he's had good weapons in Seattle, but like he's become a professional quarterback who can stand back there- Yeah...
22:25
and sling the ball around and put up big time passing numbers.
22:27
And coming n- coming to Las Vegas, getting to play indoors, and I know they're gonna wanna run the ball with Ashton Gentry, and that's what they're gonna want to establish this offense around.
22:36
But Gil, do you really believe this Raiders team ain't gonna be playing from behind a lot? Oh, right. And Geno's gonna have to throw the ball. 100%. He's got Brock Bowers to work in.
22:43
I and G- I think Geno's set to have a good, a big, big time year here. Here's two more. Uh, let's go to rushing. This is rushing touchdowns. Yeah. Christian McCaffrey of the Niners, seven and a half.
22:53
James Conner of the Cardinals at seven and a half. I went Conner here. Me too. Because this is specifically rushing touchdowns.
23:01
McCaffrey has had a couple years where he has gotten way more than seven and a half, right, in double digits in terms of rushing touchdowns, but I can't count on that from him, especially after all the injuries.
23:12
Whereas Conner's a, he's an eight, seven, eight kinda guy every year. D- it's incredible. Yeah.
23:17
I, I, ever since he came from Pittsburgh, I feel like a- all, all I've heard every offseason is, "Well, James Conner's getting a little older. He's not gonna be able to do the same thing."
23:25
And it's just every season, the consistency you get out of James Conner. I'm w- I'm with you. It's Conner for me.
23:31
Um, I don't really know how many seasons [laughs] we could have this conversation in the past where I said, "Yeah, give me James Conner," in any type of conversation over Christian McCaffrey.
23:38
But yes, for rushing touchdowns, as you appropriately pointed out, that's all we're talking about here. Conner's gonna get a lot of those looks a- uh, in the red zone and at the goal line, and- Yeah...
23:47
for a Cardinals team that you and I are high on. If it was total touchdowns, I would probably go McCaffrey- Yeah... 'cause of the receiving game. Um, but I'll go Conner there. Have we agreed on all four of these so far?
23:55
Is that what I'm hearing? No, we disagreed on one. What was it? K- Good... uh, Kyler Tua. Kyler and Tua. Kyler and Tua.
24:00
Uh, here's the last one, receiving touchdowns, seven and a half both for CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys and Malik Nabers of his division rival Giants.
24:08
I went CeeDee here, um, for The same reason you just mentioned in the last one, which is the Cowboys are the proverbial over team. That defense is gonna be terrible. That offense is gonna be slinging it.
24:21
They're gonna be behind. CD's just gonna have more opportunities. Malik, I'm not saying anything bad about Malik Nabers, but I'll go CeeDee Lamb here.
24:28
Yeah, this is, this is Lamb, and man, it, it's just, I know he hasn't scored as many touchdowns as a Ja'Marr Chase, or has really matched his numbers when it comes to catches, targets, yardage.
24:39
That's a low to- uh, touchdown number. We'll ask Nick Whelan from Rotowire about those and all his thoughts week one and beyond. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network, coming back.
24:49
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back with the Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling alongside.
25:05
Uh, we got tweets from beating the book. Gen X millennial. Hey, both Gen X and a millennial he says. Does that work? Okay. J-H, uh, Rickerson says, "Megapod means football is all the way back."
25:15
Yes, uh, Todd tweeting out that he'll be on the show here later at, uh, 9:15 Pacific, 12:15 Eastern here on the Numbers Game, and then the Megapod at 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific. A tradition unlike any other.
25:28
Andrew, @fixmychipgame, he says, "Regarding Sceens, has there ever been a Cy Young winner on a last ta- uh, last place team before?" Yes, uh, famously, one time, Steve Carlton, I wanna say 1972 was the season.
25:42
Don't hold me to that. But he won 27 games on a Phillies team that won, like, 61 or something like that. They're insane. He won the Cy Young.
25:53
And I think Felix had a year where he won it, but it might have been second to last place in the division. So n- so it's a very short... It's not even a list.
26:00
It's Steve Carlton, I believe, is the only list regarding Sceens, but I think Sceens will be number two here in the National League. Let's talk some more football. Nick Whelan joins us.
26:08
Uh, he, of course, part of the Prop Points, uh, version that he does with Jeff Erickson when we have that here on the network.
26:15
More importantly, these days, of course, he's a senior analyst at Jeff Erickson's Rotowire, which he founded. Uh, and also a VSiN host, uh, when we need him. It's Nick Whelan, everybody.
26:25
@Whelan on Twitter, but spell the Whelan with a one instead of the L. He joins us now courtesy of Aggressive Guest Line. How you doing, Nick? Doing great, guys. Doing great.
26:34
Uh, looking forward to, to joining the show throughout the season. Obviously, football is back, uh, tomorrow night, in fact. And, uh, looking forward to getting to it, guys, so thanks for having me.
26:43
All right, we have a bunch of... We have so much to get to with you, uh, betting and fantasy. Real quick, though, let's do this rapid fire, 'cause Kelly and I just went through this. Mm-hmm.
26:50
And I wanna see if your, your instant reaction is, is what ours is. Uh, we have five of these. Who are you higher on? If you had to play one of... If y- if this was a head-to-head, who would you go with here? Mm-hmm.
27:00
Jayden Daniels over 3400 and a half, or Sam Darnold over 34 and a half? What do you like better? I think it's Sam Darnold. Ooh. First reaction. Ooh. Oh.
27:10
Uh, I, I think you have, you have more wiggle room if we're comparing this to last season, right? I mean, Sam Darnold cleared this by what? Like, almost 1,000 yards? 700, yeah.
27:18
So even if you expect some regression, like I do, it really comes down to does he just remain the Seahawks starting quarterback for the entire season?
27:25
Every quarterback who started 17 games last year ended up hitting this mark. So I think it's doable. I don't think we see the Sam Darnold from last season.
27:33
I also think maybe some of those big plays, some of those kinda outta nowhere deep balls to Terry McLaurin. I know this is maybe a touchy subject for you, Gil. Uh. I do wonder- Dare you...
27:41
how much those carry over year over year. [laughs] Dare you. Jayden Daniels, he likes to use his legs. Sam Darnold doesn't have that option. I'll go Darnold. Uh, Murray, Tagovailoa, three f- uh, 3450 and a half.
27:51
Who, who are you higher on here? Man, th- these are two guys that I'm, I'm actually fading both in, in fantasy this season. I do like Murray a little bit more.
28:00
You know, there's just no, no real change to that Arizona offense. We're going into, like, year four of Michael Wilson. Is, is he actually the number two? I, I think I would lean, I would lean Tua.
28:10
I- if you think Tua stays healthy, I think he has a much better chance, of course, to, to clear this number, but he's also the biggest health risk at quarterback in the NFL right now.
28:18
He's als- he also led the NFL in passing, what, two years ago. So we, we know what the upside is here. Miami, to me, it, this season's either going to be a disaster or it's going to go really well.
28:26
I, I don't see them just being average. We'll lean into the variance here. I'll take Tua. Okay. La- last one, because we wanna get to your plays. We'll just keep it to the quarterback ones. Geno versus Bo Nix.
28:35
Geno's line 25 and a half yards higher, but which one are you higher on here? I think I would take Geno here. Yeah. Gotta be Tua. Uh, I, I like Bo Nix quite a bit, but I, I think Denver wants to run the ball more.
28:47
I think that's why they invested in the running back position. You know, Amari Cooper is, is now in Vegas, so that changes everything. Giving Geno. Okay.
28:54
Uh, you mentioned fantasy, uh, in terms of, uh, you know, you were high or, or not high on some. Mm-hmm. Let's talk about, uh, week one fantasy. Who's a potential sit that might be rostered everywhere?
29:07
Yeah, you know, one guy I'm thinking about, and it's a player that I have a ton of, because I'm somebody who likes to wait on the quarterback position.
29:13
I don't typically, you know, invest in Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, et cetera. Wanna be, wanna be hitting the running backs and receivers early on. I have a lot of Dak Prescott.
29:23
I don't necessarily love this spot for Dak in week one. I think you could look at it one of two ways. Of course, the Eagles, you know, should be one of the best defenses in the NFL again.
29:30
Maybe that means the Dallas Cowboys are trailing throughout, and they're throwing the ball a ton in the second half.
29:35
You know, there, there could be some incongruency between, you know, a good quarterback game in real life and a good fantasy game. So I, I do recognize that potential.
29:42
But look, Trevor Lawrence, Drake May, these guys have great match-ups.
29:46
You know, I, I think if you, if you are somebody who takes two quarterbacks late in the draft, you know, I, I have plenty of teams where I have Dak and Lawrence. The idea, of course, is you're starting Dak most weeks.
29:55
But I, I'm considering keeping him on the bench in some of my leagues. I want Trevor Lawrence going up against the Panthers. I might want Drake May going up against the Raiders.
30:03
So that, that's kind of the big one at quarterback this week. You know, for the most part, any quarterback you drafted ahead of Dak Prescott, y- you're just plugging that guy in just about every week.
30:11
Which rookies are you high on fantasy-wise? Yeah, I, I, I'm high on most of this class, to be honest.
30:18
You know, I think the, the big riser, of course, over the last month has been Emeka Egbuka, and part of that is what he's been able to do in preseason and in training camp.
30:26
But it's also coincided with, you know, the news on Chris Godwin getting worse and worse. Like, there was a time a month or two ago where it was like, "Yeah, all right, maybe Chris Godwin could play week one.
30:35
If not week one, maybe week two." Now it feels like he's going to miss multiple games to begin the season.
30:40
Jalen McMillen, you know, who had some, some signs last year, he's gonna miss probably the first half of the season. So things are breaking really, really well for Emeka Egbuka.
30:48
If you're playing in a high-stakes league, a competitive fantasy league, you now have to make a point to get Egbuka. He's not just gonna fall into your hands anymore.
30:55
Same goes for Treveyon Henderson at the running back spot. I mean, this was a guy going in the, you know, 70s, 80s not that long ago. I [laughs] I've seen him go in the second and third round of drafts now.
31:06
I, I'm pumping the brakes on that. That's a little bit too high for me, but I, I think, again, both of these guys have really nice match-ups in week one.
31:13
And, you know, with Chris Godwin not out there, Emeka Egbuka might have a full month where he can really establish himself as that, that number two behind Mike Evans.
31:20
Treveyon Henderson, of course, gets the Las Vegas Raiders this weekend. I don't think that is going to be a very good defense. Then the other guy I'm keeping a close eye on, specifically in week one...
31:30
Look, I, I could talk about targeting the Carolina Panthers and that terrible defense.
31:33
Jacksonville was almost as bad last season, so I, I think this is a really nice kinda o- opening landing spot for Tet McMillen and Carolina. Last thing on fantasy, is there a DFS recommendation or two for you?
31:45
Yeah, there, there are a few guys that I think will be quite popular. And, you know, as you guys know, these prices for week one, you know, on a lot of sites, they come out in late July, and they don't change.
31:54
So we, we have a lot of information coming in over the last month.
31:57
And, you know, comparing what we know now to what we knew in late July, someone like Emeka Egbuka, who is way below where he'd normally be priced, he's going to be extremely popular.
32:06
I think we're going to see a lot of Ricky Pearsall in DFS contests. I think the Cardinals defense is [laughs] going to be very, very popular going up against Spencer Rattler and the Saints.
32:15
And this might be the one week, guys, the one week where you are loading up your lineup with Cleveland Browns. Wow. Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Joe Flacco.
32:23
If you're kinda punting the quarterback position, I think we're gonna see a lot of stacks with the Cleveland Browns goin'- going up against Cincinnati. All right. Uh, Nick, I might ask you to stay for a second segment.
32:31
I wanna get in all the betting stuff. Week one, let's start with this week, and then we'll get to the season longs. Uh, let me ask you a Megapod question. Whi- which games do you want no part of?
32:41
Ooh, love the Megapod, by the way. Thank you. Appreciate it. And, uh, looking forward to, to diving back in on that this season. There are two for me.
32:48
Uh, Raiders-Pats is one of 'em, and, uh, you know, we, we have some injury questions with Christian Gonzalez. I, I think if he ends up being out there, I, I do lean New England at home.
32:57
But the real stay away for me is Dolphins-Colts. Uh, we, we've been... Jeff and I have dubbed this the Variance Bowl. In week one, I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen.
33:05
You know, I think on paper you probably feel a little bit better about a healthy Dolphins team, but you're on the road, but you're also in a dome, and Miami plays well in those situations. Do you trust Daniel Jones?
33:14
Like, both of these teams have had terrible off-seasons. The vibes have been brutal for both of them. I don't really trust either defense.
33:21
I think we, we talk a lot about Tyreek Hill and Tua and, and Waddle and the injuries. The Miami Dolphins have had a ton of injuries on defense. They might have the worst secondary in the NFL.
33:29
And I, it seems crazy to back Daniel Jones in week one, but I, I think there are, there are areas where you could really exploit this Miami team defensively.
33:37
It's like, yeah, you shored up one safety spot with Minkah Fitzpatrick, but trading away Jalen Ramsey, I, I think they have the worst cornerback group in the NFL. I think that's my answer to that question, too.
33:46
You did mention Bengals-Browns when we're talking fantasy. You have thoughts on that game? Yeah. I do. I do.
33:52
And it, it's a tough one to, to take a side because obviously we know the history with Cincinnati in week one, and really that extends to week two as well.
34:00
Uh, this is a, a, a must-win, a must-win for Cincinnati because I, I think the, the seat becomes incredibly hot for Zac Taylor. He might be going week to week after this if the Bengals do find a way to lose this game.
34:10
But this is one that I'm gonna be attacking in the prop market. The Bengals have told us, you know, all summer they wanna get Chase Brown even more involved as a receiver.
34:18
Chase Brown, four-plus receptions in this game at plus 125 is something I'm looking at. Average close to five catches per game over the second half of last season.
34:26
I also like the over 20 and a half receiving yards for him.
34:29
And if you're looking for kind of a sneaky anytime touchdown prop for, for Sunday, David Njoku anytime touchdown could get that plus 250 right now over at FanDuel. Uh, we have a minute here.
34:40
Uh, let's, let's squeeze in the Friday night São Paulo game between the Chiefs and the Chargers. Mm-hmm. How are you playing that? I'm on the Chiefs, guys. I'm on the Chiefs.
34:48
I tend to be a, a Chiefs backer, a, a Mahomes backer. I, I think this looks a lot like the two games we saw between these two teams last year. They were both lower scoring.
34:56
Neither of them hit 40 in terms of combined score, so I do like the under here as well. I, I, I am a believer that the Chiefs offense can kind of return to being 2012-- or excuse me, 2022, 2023.
35:06
I don't think that happens until Rashee Rice is back, but I think we get a relatively close game here.
35:10
Chargers 0 and 9, guys, in games decided by three points or less over the last two seasons, so this is a Chiefs spot for me. I think it's a grind-it-out type of game. Nick, can you hang out for one more segment?
35:20
'Cause I got a whole bunch more to ask you here. Is that cool? You bet. Let's do it. Okay. Got a couple more, uh, week one games, Falcons-Bucs, I wanna ask you about. I wanna ask you about the Lions-Packers.
35:29
And then season-long, uh, player prop, Rookie of the Year, that kinda thing. Nick Whalen joins us once again on Twitter @Whalan. That's Whalen, but instead of the L, put in the number one.
35:40
Rotowire Senior Analyst coming back on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:55
[upbeat rock music][upbeat music] The Sports Betting Network Don't forget, the NFL Betting Guide 2.0 Pro Edition updated, ready for week one.
36:10
Inside the NFL Betting Guide 2.0, you'll find post preseason team updates, proven betting systems, contest strategies, and host best bets for opening week and beyond.
36:18
Get access to this and the College Football Betting Guide for as little as $9.99 for your first 30 days. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to see which subs- uh, which subscription, pardon me, works best for you.
36:28
That's vsin.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, Nick Whalen, senior analyst at RotoWire and of course, VSIN host, kind enough to join us for a second segment here courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
36:38
Uh, we've got more week one to get to and season longs from you, Nick.
36:41
Before we do, uh, Kelly and I were talking about the, uh, Pablo Torre finds out investigation where he alleges, and he doesn't only allege it, he backs it up with receipts, uh, that the Clippers have, uh, tried to circumvent the salary cap, not only have tried, but have done so by funneling $28 million to Kawhi Leonard, uh, through, uh, improper channels.
37:02
You have a reaction to this? 'Cause I know you're a big basketball guy. I am a big basketball guy.
37:07
Uh, my initial reaction was, well, like knowing what we know about Kawhi Leonard, it's not that far-fetched to think that he could be working a landscaping job- [laughs]... in his downtime out there in LA.
37:17
It was like that, that wouldn't be that crazy, right? Um- Hey, is that Ka- Like, making that kind of money doing it Is that Kawhi Leonard? Yeah. Yeah. It's like, "All right." You know, the guy, the guy has hobbies.
37:25
But, uh- Yeah. But first of all, I, I don't... I, my guess is that this has probably happened before, right? And this is just coming to light.
37:32
Uh, you know, there, there are, you know, obviously these owners have such deep pockets. I'm sure there are, there are sweeteners, uh, that have been handed out, uh, you know, over the years.
37:40
But, you know, I, I'm very interested to see how the NBA reacts to this because like you said, this isn't just somebody, you know, s- uh, blurting it out on a podcast. Like, this is real- Yeah...
37:48
reporting from a reputable guy in Pablo Torre, and I, I think we could see, we could see major ramifications, right?
37:54
We could see a, a hefty, hefty fine, which probably doesn't really matter all that much if you're Steve Ballmer, but, you know, docking draft picks- Mm-hmm... you know, things of that nature.
38:01
It's, it's a, a relatively unprecedented situation. It'll probably take a long, a long time for this to all play out, uh, at the league office and, and legally, but i- it's a, it's a terrible look for the LA Clippers.
38:12
Sure is. And, and some of the reaction to this has already been, man, there, there are teams that wondered at the time, you know, how, how did they land Kawhi Leonard? You know, he was interested in the LA Lakers.
38:21
There were other teams, you know, that, that could have offered perhaps a better situation, and, uh, if you rewind the clock, you know, now it makes a little bit more sense. I'm- So- I'm worried about Pablo.
38:29
He's not making friends everywhere he goes, everybody- Oh, yeah. I love it. I love it. I, I love him, but I'm worried about him.
38:35
So last time there was proven salary cap circumvention, this is 25 years ago, it was Joe Smith and the Timberwolves. Mm-hmm. Smith's contracts were voided with the Timberwolves.
38:44
The team lost its first round draft picks for the next five years. Man. And the NBA fined the Timberwolves a then record $3.5 million. I have no idea what that number would be today.
38:54
University of Maryland great, Joe Smith. Oh, yeah. Let's get back, let's get back- A short great... to the NFL on a couple, uh, couple more marquee games and how you're playing them.
39:02
Let's go with the Bucs and the Falcons, where the Bucs are two and a half point favorites. Mm. How are you playing this? I, I am recklessly in on the Atlanta Falcons this season, guys, and I- Me too...
39:12
I'm prepared to be hurt, but I...
39:15
Th- this is a team that got to eight wins last year, swept the Buccaneers, by the way, in the regular season, and did so with extremely substandard quarterback play for a good chunk of the year.
39:25
You know, got a win over the Eagles early in the season, were starting to feel a little bit better about Kirk Cousins, but they, they basically had to go into game manager mode with their highly paid starting quarterback for, for most of the season and just kinda try to grind out these games.
39:37
I, I loved what I saw from Michael Penix at the end of last season, just in terms of being willing to sling it.
39:42
You know, he, he's somebody I would look at [laughs] right now in the most interceptions market, because he has job security. He's not afraid to throw it downfield.
39:49
But I, I don't think the talent gap is, is all that large between Tampa Bay and Atlanta, especially to begin the year, where you have Chris Godwin out, you have McMillan out, you have Tristan Wirfs out, a huge piece on that offensive line for Tampa Bay.
40:01
So I think this is actually a pretty good spot for Atlanta in week one. Tough divisional game, of course, but you get it at home.
40:07
You're catching the Bucs with these injuries, and I just think we see a significantly higher powered version of this Falcons offense. Uh, the big question is, did they actually fix the pass rush, right?
40:16
They, they, they made the investments. They took not one, but two edge rushers in the first round. We actually need to see that pay dividends before we just assume it's going to work.
40:24
But I, I like when a team at least identifies and recognizes, "Hey, this is a major, major hole for us. We have like 50 fewer sacks than any other team over the last five years." So I, I'm high on this Atlanta team.
40:35
I like them as, as a semi-dark horse to win that division. Get that close to plus 250 right now, and I think that starts by stealing a win this week.
40:43
Lions, Packers, one more in week one, and then we'll move on to some season long props. Mm-hmm. What do you think about this? Look, I'm on Detroit here. I am. I...
40:51
Y- you guys know I'm, I'm stationed in the state of Wisconsin. I, I spent my weekend at, at a wedding for my college friend, which was just Micah Parsons central. That's all we talked about- [laughs]...
41:00
for three straight days. Hmm. So every- everybody is, i- is, is, you know, fully in, uh, on the trade, as they should be, but I do wonder, does it pay immediate dividends?
41:08
You know, Micah Parsons might need an epidural just to be out there on Sunday afternoon.
41:12
I, I would imagine he could still be on a relatively limited snap count, and I, I just have a, a lot of questions about this Packers team.
41:18
I, I think if things hit, of course they're a Super Bowl contender, but it starts with quarterback. You know, Jordan Love, of course, coming off of, you know, a somewhat average year.
41:25
You could chalk it up to injury if you want, but the consistency was never really there.
41:30
I, I think there are a ton of questions in the secondary to the point where you had to convert your fifth wide receiver into a guy who's going to play real snaps at cornerback.
41:38
I, I think this is a really tough team to take on in week one given those holes in the secondary in Detroit. Now w- with the Lions, we could of course question losing both coordinators.
41:46
You know, how much regression is there post Ben Johnson? But you're bringing back what might be the, the best skill group in the NFL.
41:53
You know, offensive line probably takes a slight step back, no Frank Ragnow, but the, the Lions have owned the Packers over these last few years. I mean, they're 5-1 in the last six games.
42:02
They, they've won the last three at Lambeau Field. So I, I, I know everybody's gonna be on Green Bay. They have all the momentum post Micah Parsons trade. I will happily take the points with Detroit.
42:11
Nick, you and I are simpatico on a lot of these. Falcons, Lions, it's, uh, w- we will, uh, see if we are correct on some of these.
42:18
Speaking of the Falcons, um, we are bullish on them, not just here week one, but also for the, uh, for the season. You have a, uh, Drake London season long that you like? I do. I do.
42:29
Drake London, 10 plus receiving touchdowns. Uh, I believe that was plus 220 was, was something I was looking at last night. Got to nine last season.
42:37
You know, a guy who's targeted plenty in the red zone, but a lot of those targets ended up being inefficient, uncatchable balls from Kirk Cousins.
42:44
And like we talked about with Michael Penix, I mean, this is a guy who is not afraid to throw the ball downfield.
42:48
I mean, 31 targets over the last two weeks of the season for Drake London, and they might not have Darnell Mooney to begin the year. You don't really have a strong third option as a pass catcher in that offense.
42:58
It might just be Bijan Robinson, right? Depending on how you feel about the Ray-Ray McCloud's and the Kyle Pitts of the world.
43:04
You know, to, to kind of give this a fantasy spin, guys, if there's a player right now who's going in the second round who I think we could be talking about as maybe the fifth or sixth overall pick, you know, joining that elite tier of receivers next year, for me it's Drake London.
43:18
Okay. And now speaking of the NFC South, so Kelly and I, we, we were throwing around, like which of the eight divisions do we feel the most confident, one, two, three, four? Mm. I was thinking about that this morning.
43:28
And of all the divisions, like I think I came down to the AFC West for me. Like I think it's Kansas City, Denver, Chargers- Yeah... Raiders. But I don't know.
43:36
Um, this isn't that, but this is specifically a slotting of a third place team that you feel the best about in terms of a bet. What's that? It's the Carolina Panthers, guys, finishing third in the NFC South.
43:49
I, I, I'm with you on the AFC West. I think that makes sense. You know, Chargers, Broncos to me, I, I think those teams are, are going to be the two and three in some order, and I do give a slight edge to Denver there.
43:58
But to, to me, the NFC South, it's, it's Atlanta and Tampa Bay on one level, it's Carolina on its own mini tier, and then you have New Orleans, which on paper to me is like one of the worst teams that we've seen, one of the worst rosters over the last, you know, five years or so.
44:12
So I, I would be shocked if New Orleans doesn't finish fourth. I would be shocked if Tampa Bay and Atlanta don't finish one, two in some order. You know, I know there's some momentum with this Carolina team.
44:21
You know, people like what they saw from Bryce Young over the second half. I, I'm just not that into it.
44:25
I, I, I couldn't see Carolina, you know, surpassing Atlanta or Tampa Bay, and, and both Atlanta and Carolina have similar schedules, by the way. It's not like Carolina's is significantly easier.
44:34
I, I think we're, we're grading Bryce Young on a significant curve.
44:37
Like yes, he looked better than he did, uh, early last season, he looked better than he did as a rookie, but he was still playing like league average at best.
44:44
You know, it's not like he was lighting it up at the end of the year. So I, I, I think Carolina, yeah, maybe they could get to, to five or six wins. New Orleans to me is like a three or a four win team.
44:52
But I, I see both A- A- Atlanta and Tampa Bay, you know, somewhere in that 9 to 11 win territory. All right.
44:57
Let's go to offensive rookie of the year where Ashton Jeanty is the short shot, followed very closely by Cam Ward, who of course is gonna start, uh, very opening of, of the, at the very beginning of the season for the Tennessee Titans, not one of these rookies that's gonna have to sit.
45:14
Mm. Uh, you have gone a couple other directions with this. Who did you land on bet-wise? Yeah, I mean, Jeanty makes some sense of course. I j- I just don't like the value right now, you know, in the, in the low 200s.
45:26
And, you know, obviously Cam Ward i- is installed as what should be the permanent starter as long as he stays healthy. But quarterbacks don't just win this award by being a starting quarterback.
45:35
Like you actually have to play pretty well in order to be the rookie of the year. You look at the last 10 years, we've had five quarterbacks, three running backs, two wide receivers. So it's fairly evenly distributed.
45:44
You know, I would look at TreVeyon Henderson, I would look at Tetairoa McMillan. Those are two of my favorite values.
45:49
I mean, Emeka Egbuka, if this guy hits to the degree that people in the fantasy world think he will, I think he could be a value at 18 to 1. And then the other guy I would throw out, uh, for your Denver Broncos, R.J.
45:59
Harvey. You know, if, if he really takes that job and runs with it. I'm, I'm not a huge J.K. Dobbins guy at this point in his career. You know, if Denver does get back to being kind of a run first team, I, I think R.J.
46:08
Harvey will have a shot at 25 to 1. Wow. Did not expect to get, uh, R.J. Harvey love from not one- Yeah... but two guests on this show today. Both Will Hill and Nick in their own ways, uh, seizing on R.J.
46:19
Harvey of the Broncos. Nick, appreciate it. I know you got, uh, other shows to do. I appreciate you hanging out for a second segment, man. Thank you. Hey, my pleasure, guys. Thanks for having me.
46:29
Nick Whalen, senior analyst at RotoWire. Again, follow him on Twitter @whalan, but replace the L with a 1. The two most opposite human beings on earth next. Warren Sharp, then Todd Wishnell.
46:41
Football, football, football next.
A Numbers Game
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