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Sep 4, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 4, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 4, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, apparently on the wrong side to many people.
0:21
[laughs] On the right side, Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. What's happening? Uh, nothing much. That is really messing with people, huh? Uh, it continues. The side thing, yeah.
0:29
It continues. People are adamant- Sorry... that I'm on the wrong side, because apparently there's an unwritten rule that the host should be where you're sitting. [laughs] But I was, I did not get the memo on that.
0:39
We're, we're also all over the place here at VSiN. We don't really have that consistent at all, so guess what? Give it a week, I guarantee you'll forget about it.
0:46
Uh, Sweet Lou Finicaro, uh, said that we as a gag should switch sides every day and like- [laughs]... mess it up, mess up people. Uh, on the show today, college football and baseball with Jonathan Vontobel, our own JVT.
0:57
Uh, some Major League Baseball and NFL with Will Hill coming up as well. Teaser time, uh, we will talk teasers. Uh, I don't know that we, uh, usually talk about it on a Wednesday.
1:07
Usually we reserve teasers for Tuesdays to get the alliteration in there, but we're doing it today. We'll, uh, define Stanford Wong teasers for you as well, for those, uh, who are unaware of what those are.
1:17
NFL awards draft. Oh, this is good. You and me- I'm pumped... in a draft, mano a mano. Yeah. What are the rules? We each get to pi- these are just award markets. Okay, we have $1,000 bankroll. Yes. Okay?
1:29
$1,000 bankroll, 10 bets that we can make, okay? We have to make at least five today- Okay... for this draft. Okay. And then we can leave up to five spots open to add throughout the season. Okay, I have a strategy.
1:44
Just, just knee-jerk strategy I just came up with. Okay. All right, and then Jason Weingarten a little later on. Jason is prepared. The smoke might not be as heavy today.
1:51
Uh, he's got some Major League Baseball [laughs] and NFL awards to discuss, uh, about his article at vsin.com. We'll do that.
1:57
We start as we, uh, as we have each and every day this week and last week with the US Open, the greatest show in sports, and, uh, as has been the case for us, one of the great betting vehicles of them all.
2:09
And, uh, yesterday, another winner, Taylor Fritz, as a plus 147 dog, uh, gets it done in four sets against Sascha Zverev. That was massive for us once again as the, uh, the winning continues.
2:23
Uh, so Taylor Fritz gets to his first ever Grand Slam semifinal. He will take on Frances Tiafoe, who, uh, advanced his first, by the way, Grand Slam semifinal. He advanced by walkover. Thought about you, Kelly. Yeah.
2:38
Uh, by walkover. Grigor Dimitrov couldn't continue. Uh, Tiafoe was up two sets to one, was up, uh, a break, and, uh, Dimitrov had it at that point. I think it was even a second break at that point.
2:49
So that, uh, is what the, uh, men's semi, the first set men's semifinal will be. So a winner on Fritz. We were not involved in the Dimitrov-Tiafoe, uh, match. We lost one of our quarter bets yesterday. Mm-hmm.
3:01
We lost on Paula Badosa at plus 550. Now, here was the thing that I, I mentioned this yesterday on the show.
3:08
Somebody had tweeted in, "Hey, I have both Badosa and Muchova in the respective quarters in a parlay, 200 to win 13,000. What should I do?"
3:15
And I said yesterday on the show, what I actually tweeted him back was, and I usually don't get involved in hedging discussions on Twitter, 'cause I don't wanna sort of weigh in on somebody's personal bets. Sure, yep.
3:26
But in this case, I said to him, I go, "Eh, probably bet a little on Emma Navarro just in case." I also, I agree with you. I don't like to give people too much advice on that. Yeah.
3:36
But you can give them, you can lay it out for the, hey, if you wanted to hedge, this is how you would do it, right? And that's what I did. And that's what I did. I said, put a little on Emma Navarro.
3:44
Uh, up to you how much. Your outlay, a little more, a little, you know, a little more than more, if you will. A little more than just a little, I should say.
3:50
And, um, in the end, what ends up happening is, and I, I felt for poor Zach, because Zach had Badosa in the match as well. Yeah.
3:58
And as someone who has had, and this is the thing about bad beats and sports betting, it doesn't have to just be tennis.
4:03
When someone else is having a bad beat and they're having a relentless run of bad beats, your reaction tends to be, oh, this person is exaggerating, right? Mm. Oh, this per- oh, the sure, bad beat's always a bad beat.
4:15
No, trust me, in tennis, there are, um, it, there, I've had, I had at least 15 or 20 matches where we're right on the doorstep of winning, and either someone quit, someone just gagged, some, the stage was too big, whatever it was.
4:29
'Cause you, if you bet hundreds of tennis matches a year, it's going to happen that way. This wasn't a bad beat yesterday, because it was only the second set, but Emma Navarro was up a set on Paula Badosa.
4:38
She was up, Badosa was, 5-1 in the second set, and she proceeded at that point to only have, to only get five points total for the next six games, as Navarro came back and beat her and won the match, won that set 7-5.
4:54
In fact, of those five points, I think the very first point was a Badosa point as well. So it was 24 of the last 28 points went to Navarro.
5:03
[laughs] Badosa said afterwards, 'cause you're like, I mean, is this really, are you making this up that the stage was too big? Yeah. She actually said it afterwards.
5:10
She's like, um, I, I'll give, I'll get the exact quote here 'cause I wrote it- Whoa, 'cause I heard Navarro afterward. Did you hear what she said afterward?
5:18
Uh- I was pretty shocked when she, uh, like, she didn't say it in a, you know, a- [laughs]... a cocky fashion or, or at all, at all, but she was like, "I thought it was gonna be done in two."
5:25
She- "I thought it was gonna be done in two," even when she was- She said-... done, down that...
5:28
she said she felt that Badosa was not as confident as sh- uh, yeah, she felt that there was a little something happening, that she could get it done in two sets.
5:35
Well, that's why I was like, man, that's a confident statement. Like, was there something she saw out there? 'Cause I didn't, I mean, I was only watching lightly. I didn't see anything.
5:42
Here, here's the quote from Badosa. "The court became smaller. I had a lot of negative phrases in my head. I wanted to leave the court." That is ungood. Yeah. That is not good. Um, and so, uh, g- You know what?
5:54
I'm glad to hear an athlete admit it, though. Like, that, I have never, like, never have a problem when athletes speak the truth like that.
6:00
It, it becomes concerning when you're betting on them over a long period of time, but, like- Well, there's-...
6:05
it's better than just a, a BS garbage answer athlete gives There's no way to handicap that, is the point, right? You, there's no way. So I, I felt for poor Zach.
6:12
Obviously, I felt for our, for our futures bet on her winning the quarter. Um, but I had this feeling about Badosa yesterday, and it d- it turned out that that was the case.
6:21
Badosa, by the way, she had to say something because she was tearing up. Mm. She was welling up with tears on the court while it was happening.
6:27
I saw none of this live 'cause we were recording the Beating the Book megapod yesterday, and thank you everybody for all the response on that. Um, so I did see the replay, and it was just brutal to watch.
6:37
I am very pumped today. Um, Karolina Muchova is the f- is, yeah, involved in the first match. That is our 10 to one in her quarter, so hopefully that future gets home.
6:47
And for those of you who, who tweeted yesterday, who said, "Not only did you have 10 to one on her to win that quarter, you have her at 100 to one," in one case, and somebody else said they had a m- uh, had her at 150 to one.
6:58
Good God, could you please tell me where you got these numbers? [laughs] Uh, not for this tournament obviously, but for future tournaments, if I wanna find out where a rogue tennis number might lie.
7:08
Uh, the only play today is on the men's side once again, and it's, this is again where I say it pays to be a subscriber at vsan.com/picks. This is only for survivors.
7:18
Every host, every guest, every sport, every bet on the network is at vsan.com/picks. And with tennis, more often than not, uh, we get a lot of good CLV, a lot of closing line value. Um, that is good.
7:32
For those who are wondering, "Oh, big deal, closing line value," the more you're able to do that, the higher the rate that you're able to do that, the theory is anyway, and the, and the math will bear this out over time, the, the more successful you will be, um, betting.
7:45
Now, are there times we come in here and we're five cents behind a line? Sure, that happens, but it's never more than that typically. Uh, here's another case. Alex de Minaur is the play against Jack Draper.
7:55
I kinda hinted at this play yesterday on the show when Zach was on. Uh, de Minaur I got at minus 127 yesterday over Jack Draper. He's about minus 147 now. You c- here's the thing.
8:07
If we're doing this correctly, you should not bet him at minus 147. Don't, i- if it's in the minus 130s, okay. But anything in the minus 140s, just to make it easy to, to think about, I would not bet this.
8:19
Now, I know inevitably, even as I'm saying this, some people are gonna bet him at minus 147. Yeah. And just so you know, that's kinda not the way we should do this. Um, but that is the play.
8:27
And again, if you are a subscriber at vsan.com, uh, vsan.com/picks, again, every host, every guest, every sport, once again, with all of our plays. Well, guess what? I'm gonna stay away then today. Okay.
8:37
I ta- I tailed you on Fritz yesterday. That was a nice hit. Um- Thank you, sir... and yeah, let's move on. Yes, you're right. M- a 20 cent move, that is not, not a practi- a habit you should get into.
8:45
Yeah, and the 20 cent move, for those who are like, "Hey, but when we had, when you had a plus 280, and then we, you said you can bet it at plus 250," that's not the same math- Yeah, ab- absolutely... on those bets. Yes.
8:55
So yeah. So in this case, I would stay away at this, but, uh, that's the play today, Alex de Minaur, for subscribers who got it yesterday.
9:03
Um, that's the only play in tennis today, and obviously this is the back end of the quarterfinals. The other future we have going besides Muchova this morning for the quarter is Iga to win the tournament.
9:11
She's taking on Jessie Pegula a little later on. Greatest tournament ever. Wish we were in New York City. What, what are your early thoughts on, uh, on Fritz and, uh, Tiafoe? 'Cause whew, I'm excited.
9:23
I mean, American's men's tennis. Let's go. Here's the thing.
9:26
Besides this de Minaur, uh, de Minaur, uh, match today, the Demon, as they call him, every one of these other matches, the f- the other three quarters today and the two semis that have already been established, the prices are all right.
9:39
Okay. Okay. Like, all of them are right where they should be, which is that Taylor Fritz is, is north of a $2 favorite against Frances Tiafoe, to answer your question. Hmm.
9:46
And I know there's, like, if you watch, if you watch m- the McEnroe brothers on the, the main broadcast, with that, you know, they're not looking at the data of these two, so it's like, "Oh, it's Tiafoe in New York," and by the way, that's why I stayed away from it, 'cause I do have some respect for the whole Tiafoe on American soil thing.
10:01
But against Taylor Fritz, the, the data is pretty lopsided. How, how- And so I think it's appropriately priced. How bad does that dude just wanna play without a shirt on? 'Cause I feel like- Tiafoe?
10:10
He, oh, yeah, i- it's off. As soon as, like, he gets to walk over, it's just like, "Oh, let me take the shirt off," and hey, I would too. I would too if I looked like that. A lot of guns- A lot of guns...
10:18
at the, at the US Open. I mean, that's a good-looking semifinal. I, I'm, I'm okay. I'm man enough to admit it. Wow. That is two good-looking men right there.
10:24
[laughs] Kelly Billings, everybody, uh, with a very honest assessment of things. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's like Adam Scott in golf. You can't deny that. [laughs] He's a good-looking man. Good-looking man.
10:33
[laughs] Maybe, maybe we should do a segment on this, Kelly. [laughs] Just you, guys that you think are good-looking. Man crushes.
10:39
[laughs] Um, one, one thing before we get to the break, 'cause we ha- we gotta get to JBT here. Uh, Paul Skeens yesterday started for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pirates shut out the Cubs five to nothing.
10:48
Skeens, um, went five innings of shutout ball, obviously. Was not the most efficient start for Skeens, but once again, 100 pitches, didn't give up a run.
10:58
And just the question of, 'cause I sort of slipped this in yesterday. We, we talked quickly about awards. I just have this sneaking suspicion.
11:05
I go, we, we saw Jackson Merrill's minus 1,000 in the, uh, in the NL Rookie of the Year market. Um, I just have this sneaking suspicion that this is gonna be closer than that market reflects.
11:16
And you, and you've got Churio down to 12 to one. Churio had a great game. A couple people tweeted me that. He had a good game.
11:21
We were asking Jason about, uh, Jackson Churio's candidacy here or, or his, his shots at getting the Rookie of the Year, not his candidacy. But I just think, I think Merrill probably squeaks home, but
11:33
I just think there's a lot of sentiment for Skeens that still exists among players. That's my honest- I think, I think Merrill squeaks home and Churio's not even close somehow. I would agree with that.
11:41
I would agree with that. Uh, JBT, college football, baseball on the other side. It's a numbers game at Vsin, the sports betting network.
11:47
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12:09
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12:26
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12:47
Kelly, this is our last day to do a show where there is no NFL game either that day or in the rear view. Yeah. Love. Let's go. [exhales] I can't wait for tomorrow, dude.
13:00
Uh, Colin Coward has this, uh, very famous line that he used to, uh, say behind the scenes, which is, uh, "They don't pay me for football season, they pay me for July," which I think sums up our, our lives here [laughs] very appropriately.
13:12
I, I think, I think you've dropped that, uh, roughly- I don't think-... 18 times over the past three months... I don't think I ever have on air. Not on air. Yeah. Not on air. Never on air. No. Yeah.
13:19
Um- Well, no, it's, [laughs] it is absolutely a good line. Not only, not only do, does our show get better, it gets easier [laughs] when we get into football season. That's right. So yeah, it's amazing.
13:27
Uh, do we have, we need a stall tactic here for JBT, by the way? Uh, yeah, well, let's- All right... let's- So now, ladies and gentlemen, it's time for Kelly's man crushes. No, we're good to go. [laughs] Oh, no?
13:35
We, we are good to go, James. Oh, I'm sorry. Well, top of the list, number one, Jonathan Vontobel, man crush. Oh, what a segue.
13:40
He's our, uh, NBA senior handicap- senior analyst, I should say, but also, of course, uh, the, uh, host of VSiN Prime Time, and, uh, just a guy who knows more than just the NBA, college football, writes a lot about college football at vsin.com, and baseball as well.
13:54
Jonathan Vontobel joining us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, JBT? Oh. Well. Okay, guess we're too early then. [laughs] All right. We'll get back to JBT. Yeah, we'll get back to JBT. All right.
14:06
Can we show the, uh- He clearly can't hear us... uh, can we sh- it's never too, uh, early to show the September, the early September three-day returns on the standings- Never too early...
14:13
for MLB [laughs] for MLB best record in the month of September. What is it, September 4th already? [laughs] My God. It's flying by. Uh, we have three teams at the top.
14:21
The Orioles, who have had the benefit of playing the White Sox, uh, they're just cruising along, plus 24 on the run differential.
14:27
Uh, you see, it's, it's so early that I haven't even gotten around to putting in games left and, uh- [laughs] Thank you. Yeah... and one run scores. I haven't even bothered yet. Guardians are 3-0.
14:36
By the way, how about the Guardians just turning around that, that threat by the Royals? Uh, they just, just punking them now. 3-0, also plus 13, uh, early start. And the Mets, the Metropolitans, 3-0 with plus 10.
14:50
Uh, Padres, Reds, and Phillies are 2-0, and then we, our bet, the Diamondbacks, they're the best of the 2-1 bunch. Uh, they are currently in seventh place at 25 to 1 odds. So there you go.
15:02
Jonathan Vontobel now, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from his, uh, his abode somewhere here in Las Vegas. What's happening, JBT? Nothing much, guys.
15:11
I, I'm excited, obviously, football's here, but I'm glad that you are not letting baseball die. I keep talking to people and saying, "Oh, you know, it's football season. I don't know about baseball." No, no, no.
15:20
This is a great season. There's so much going on. I, I will not let it die either. I'm very excited. I, I could not be more excited for October. Obviously, the pennant races are happening right now, races for awards.
15:31
Uh, did you bet anything in baseball today, sir? So I've only got one bet.
15:34
Uh, I laid it with, uh, Spencer Arrighetti, affectionately known as Spaghetti, uh, with the Houston Astros against, uh, Martinez and the Cincinnati Reds.
15:42
Uh, about a buck 35, and that's still plenty out there, and I don't know what the market's gonna do with it now, but, uh, as you guys well know and for your audience, Arrighetti, look, he's kind of all over the place at times.
15:50
We saw him a couple of starts ago give a four in runs to the White Sox, but dude, he might be their best pitcher. Like, the swing and miss stuff is absolutely incredible.
15:58
The ability to generate double-digit strikeouts in any given start, he's done it in three of his last five.
16:03
Uh, I trust him i- in against the lineup, that Cincinnati Reds, bottom of the league, bottom 10, uh, in terms of strikeout rate, weighted runs created plus.
16:10
I think he's gonna go out there and have a pretty solid showing after carrying a no-hitter against the Phillies r- deep into the eighth inning. So, uh, yeah, Arrighetti and the Astros are the only bet I made today here.
16:19
I'm gonna go with Spaghetti and, and have him keep my Astros afloat here and, and get that division lead up to seven games. Just end these Mariners, these fools. Uh, I assume, by the way- Fools...
16:28
you're talking, quote-unquote- [laughs]... "my Astros," you have them to win the division. Is that it?
16:32
Uh, so I got them to win the division, and then as part of that free roll blackjack tournament, I've got a 7,000- Ah... dollar free roll on them, 17 to 1, so, uh- There it is... we're very much pro Astros. That's right.
16:41
You were telling us the you and the wife. The whole household, yes. [laughs] You and the wife, the whole household, the kids, everybody. I mean, even the kid. Yeah, I was gonna say, even the kid, he's like, "Astros?"
16:48
I'm like, "Yes. Let me tell you about-" [laughs] "... Spencer Arrighetti and the pitch that Hunter Brown added to his arsenal that made him one of the better pitchers in baseball."
16:54
By the way, the best JBT family story is still you recognizing that you've, you have officially become an old man [laughs] when you f- fell asleep watching something, watching some game, and your son grabbed the remote and you're like, "Ah, I was watching that."
17:05
[laughs] It wasn't even a game. It was, it was, uh, it was a golf tournament. I fell asleep watching a golf tournament- Amazing... on a Sunday.
17:10
It was, uh, w- well, the golf tournament was on Father's Day, uh, but I fell asleep on that Sunday. Then I woke up, "Hey, I'm watching that." Yeah, US Open, yeah. It was the best.
17:16
You gotta, yeah, you gotta get the, uh, yeah, golf has to be added to the story. Hmm. It's an important part. If I could count the number of times that was said to me. [laughs] Um, okay.
17:24
Uh, college football, week two, sir. You have some thoughts- Yes... and some bets. Yeah, absolutely.
17:29
So first off, let's go to, a- and part of week two, and, and generally week to week it happens, but I think week one to week two you see the biggest jumps, which is, you know, the market does react to what we saw.
17:38
It's our first time seeing these teams. We've pontificated and prognosticated and done all this stuff over the summer. We finally get to see them play, and I think we tend to freak out a little bit about some results.
17:47
So let's go to a l- a night game first. Oregon, Boise State, this is the, the first thing I was looking for on this card. Um, if you go back, Oregon's win over, uh, Idaho State wasn't actually that bad.
17:57
You know, they turned it over in the red zone- They had penalties. I think they were called for about eight penalties for 60 yards, missed field goals, uh, stuffed on fourth down multiple times.
18:06
But in terms of total yards, in terms of yards for play, in terms of trips to the red zone, they, they did a tremendous job. And so I think that that score was a little misleading.
18:14
But the market really seemed to freak out here. In this matchup against Boise State, guys, last week it was hung up at Oregon minus 24 and a half. Mm.
18:22
It was as low as minus 18, uh, once we got through the Sunday openers and some of the action. So I thought that was a little extreme. I laid 18. I still think it's playable anything under 21.
18:32
I, I think that when you look at the Oregon result, I don't want to react too much to it. And on the flip side, it's not like Boise State went out there and dominated Georgia Southern.
18:39
They gave up over 450 yards, 45 points. They were a team that last year was 71st in EPA per play defensively. They were a very subpar team. They gave up 6.1 yards per play.
18:49
They are not, I believe, going to stop this Oregon offense. I, I think this is a massive overreaction for the market to say a week ago, like, "Yeah, we're fine with 24 and a half."
18:58
And after one result in which both teams failed to cover, that we're gonna knock this down to under 21. So I, I laid 18 again. I, I think 19 and a half under 21 I think is still playable. That was at the top of the list.
19:08
And I think the other that is worth mentioning at this point right now, uh, because I've got a couple that moved. Like I- uh, Charlotte, North Carolina, I went under 48. It's down to 46 and a half.
19:16
I think if it, if it makes its way back up there, like, to 48, I think that's a playable number. North Carolina's front seven's good, backup quarterback's not, and Charlotte offensively is still pretty beat up.
19:26
But the other one, I was talking about this with Matt, Notre Dame taking on, uh, Northern Illinois. I think one of the things that Notre Dame is gonna do is be somewhat Michigan-esque.
19:35
There's no reason to show anything anymore, right? Like, you're gonna be massive favorites going forward. Mm-hmm.
19:39
If you remember last year, Michigan was just running the ball, not showing anything, playing games boring, not covering numbers, and a lot of those games were going under.
19:46
So I bet this game under 45 a- and I think that's a really solid way to go. If you're looking at that total, I think Notre Dame has no way that they're gonna show anything.
19:53
They're gonna come out and just win a game in a really boring style and get out, and they're gonna suffocate Northern Illinois.
19:58
Playing that game under is a really strong angle, or betting Northern Illinois, but I think playing it under's the better way to go. I, I sort of mentioned this last week.
20:04
You might have even been on with me when I, when I mentioned this.
20:07
But my theory is that we know, I'm talking about, like, team sports, North American team sports, that we know the least about college football in the off season versus every other sport. Do you agree with that?
20:18
Oh, yeah, absolutely. Yeah. I mean, we, it was pri- it was prior to the tra- the, the portal, right? I mean, you're talking about a bunch of young kids.
20:24
Roster turnover is the highest amongst all these sports, and then now with the transfer portal, Gil, where you're getting new- Oh... faces in from different schools at key positions, it's, it's insane.
20:31
I, I, I completely buy into that. Completely buy into it. The transfer portal has sent it into, spiraled into a, a different place entirely.
20:38
Um, before I let you go, uh, it occurs to me that we, this is probably the last time we get to chat before Thursday Night Football. Between the Chiefs and the Ravens, do you have a bet in on this game?
20:48
Do you have thoughts on this game? So I don't really have anything. I, I kind of, r- at least for Thursday. I've got some stuff for Sunday. But at least for Thursday, I kind of just want to sit back and watch.
20:56
I do gravitate toward the simplest and thought of, like, you know, Chiefs minus two and a half at home. It seems kind of easy. Um, so I c- I think I'm on that side.
21:03
But for me, this is one where, like Kansas City where we know it's changing offensively. They have some more speed.
21:08
Baltimore, I think they're going to m- miss Mike McDonald, and I don't think they're gonna be as effective, uh, on the back end.
21:13
But I had, I didn't know enough about these two, and I thought this number was tight enough that I didn't have a strong enough edge one way or the other. What's your favorite play on Sunday that you have? So, oh yeah.
21:22
So we're gonna go to, so it was, uh, Arizona catching, uh, that seven. If it comes back, it'll be there. Uh, but for sure I think in that game too, I think that's playable over, uh, if you look at it.
21:31
47 and a halfs are out there, 48 too. We'll see what the total does. I'm seeing if it's gonna tick down, but Buffalo's got questions on the back end with their defensive backs, and I'm a Arizona guy.
21:40
Like, I think their offense is gonna be really good. I think Kyler Murray's undervalued. They fixed some stuff along the offensive line, and their own defense is susceptible.
21:47
I think this is gonna be a high-scoring affair. I think it's gonna be tight. So Arizona and the game over the total is at the top of my list, as well as Tennessee catching four against Chicago. Yeah. Cool.
21:55
I j- I just bet that over yesterday as well, added that to my week one, uh, slate, over 47 and a half. Agree with you completely, JVT.
22:01
Think that's, uh, two good offenses and the Bills, uh, a little banged up heading into, uh, early action here in the season. Absolutely. You in survivor, John? Uh, no. So I was debating.
22:11
I'm gonna have one more contest entry. I got a couple millions, but I'm gonna go back in with one more millions. I, I think that I wanna do that instead. I, I wanna stick around.
22:18
I can't, I can't lose in the first round, you know what I mean?
22:20
[laughs] I want part of the experience, but I, I wanna last, and, and I think there's a little bit more fun testing your skill in something like the millions.
22:26
I love that you're convinced that you would be a one weekend done person in survivor. Oh, yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Okay. Thank you, John. Appreciate it. Jonathan Vontobel, everybody. Thank you.
22:35
@meJVT, uh, his Twitter handle on, uh, the World Wide Web, the information superhighway, as they used to call it. Will Hill with all his bets across sports, that's on the other side.
22:46
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, the mothership. That's right.
23:03
Kelly and I are just like his new kids and, and what, what's the expression? Uh, you, I don't even know what the expression is. I don't know where you're going. I s- K- kids in a, I don't even know.
23:11
I said earlier- But it's like we're s- it's like Christmas morning for us... yeah, seeing some of the crew back here, it's like- Ah... a time machine. I feel like we showed up at the wrong studio.
23:17
We should be down at South Point where you see, uh, Rob Moreno, Isaiah Wrinkle, and Wyatt Tomchek- Mm-hmm... in the same room.
23:22
But again, a shout-out to, uh, Sean McCollum and- Oh, and Matt Hicks, Landon Mirror- Matt Hicks... all, uh, doing awesome work, still doing awesome work over at the D. Absolutely. Yep. Stuck in a closet back at the D,
23:32
but we still love him. Well- Um, Will Hill is here. We still love him, @notthewillhill on Twitter, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
23:39
Will is the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, where his guests are oh-so familiar. How you doing, Will? Gilly, what's going on? Uh, 100th episode today, so- Oh, cool... uh, exciting stuff. And,
23:52
a- and I listen to your show all the time. I don't really watch, a- and I've heard all the comments about people being thrown off by you guys sitting on different sides. Now I see it.
24:00
It feels like You ever try to put on like your, your right shoe- Trying to start... on your left foot or vice versa and immediately it just, it doesn't fit right? Oh. That's kind of what this feels like.
24:08
Right, right shoe on left foot here. Well, thanks for starting off the segment with that. Yeah, thanks. Now I feel awkward. You know what I noticed, Gil? Yeah. Is our posture looks a whole lot better over here.
24:16
I'm, I'm not doing like Larry King la- uh, lean in- Oh, I'm doing a little-... or like slouched back in my chair. I'm doing, I don't know what to do with my right arm, but other than that we're good. Mm-hmm.
24:24
Hey, Will, let me, uh, ask you a question here. Uh- Yeah... Kenny put this in the rundown, but I'm also reminded that I got more than one tweet about this.
24:31
Uh, that Francisco Lindor hits his 30th home run of the season, uh, steals his, uh, what was it? His 26th base last night on the Mets seven to two win over the Red Sox.
24:40
And I'm getting some people, right, on Twitter, who are like, "Hey, Lindor," our buddy Chris Felica texts, he j- he's joking I think, right? Oh. Every time he texts about Lindor he's like, "MVP Francisco Lindor."
24:53
This is not a thing, right? Like, he has no chance at this. Yep. That, that'd be an interesting question, how many votes would he get if, uh, i- if it ended now? Would he get some votes? He might get a couple. A couple.
25:06
But it's, i- it's one of those things where, uh, should it be minus 2,000? Maybe, maybe not. But is, is Lindor actually going to win barring something unforeseen? I don't think so.
25:15
It's a great, like, sports talk radio debate. I mean, I could think back to like, you know, the, uh, the late 90s, early 2000s, I, I could picture Mike and the Mad Dog doing, you know, six hours on this.
25:24
The, uh, the value of a defensive shortstop who, who also has power versus the DH and what's more valuable and, uh, I, I get all the debates. I think it was Buck Showalter, who's been extremely classy post Mets tenure.
25:35
He's praised the manager, said he should be manager of the year.
25:37
Said L- uh, manager of the year, said Lindor, uh, would get his vote for MVP 'cause he can go 0 for four and still win you a ballgame because of his defense.
25:44
But ultimately, I think Lindor maybe gets a vote or two, and, and Ohtani wins this probably going in a way, a- away here.
25:50
And I think, y- you know, if you ask Bear, Bear's probably tongue in cheek, but he, I, I know he thinks that Mookie Betts is just as valuable if not more valuable than Ohtani. So I mean, Ohtani is on a loaded team.
26:01
Are we overrating the steals a little bit? Like, do the steals matter as much as the defense? I think there's a case for Lindor, I just don't ultimately think he's gonna win.
26:08
Yeah, but I, I'm always amused by people who, you know, we have these benchmarks, you know, the, the baseball card stats- Yeah... of the Triple Crown numbers, home runs, RBIs, and batting average.
26:17
Uh, we've always had the mythical 40/40 thing, now Shohei trying to do 50/50. I, I love this thing about people who are never into analytics ignoring all of that stuff that they've been talking about- Yeah...
26:27
for their entire lives and be like, "What about war? Oh, war, it's very important." [laughs] You know, it's like, come on, no. It's not gonna happen. People are always gonna look for whatever- Yeah...
26:35
fits their, their angle, their narrative. And I asked you, um, I thought a great question, as I'm known to do, the other day when you were on with, uh, with Holden Kushner and I.
26:43
What do they open Shohei Ohtani MVP next year? Yes. Because you're gonna add a whole new position. By the way, oh, he's like a top five pitcher in the National League.
26:50
On top of the 50 and 50, and maybe he doesn't run as much because he's pitching, but I mean, I, can you make that even money? I don't know. Two- No... two to one is just like an automatic bet.
27:00
W- if you're, i- if you're the Gil Alexander Sports Book, what do you open that line at?
27:03
Well, I'll tell, uh, what I answered the other day when you guys asked me this, when you asked me this, was that he would have to be in the same way that Wembanyama is minus- Yeah... $2- I was just gonna bring that up...
27:14
in the de- in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year. You would have to make Shohei that. Because if you don't- Yes... first of all, everybody's betting it, right? Right- You make a don't- Yeah...
27:22
you make a don't bet this line. Do not bet this please. Minus 300. Yes. Right. Yeah. Go away. We don't want your bets. That's right. So it would have to be north of $2 to start with.
27:29
Because as you said, it's like let's take this guy who almost, let's say almost wins the Triple Crown, but gets 50/50, and now, oh by the way, he's going to play p- he's gonna play the other position, the other major position in baseball, and he's going to do it at a near Cy Young level probably.
27:46
So it's like, it's just ridiculous, this guy. Yeah. Yeah. Wemby minus 180 for Defensive Player of the Year. At maybe Shohei's minus 150-ish. But- I think minus 150 is too low as a start. Okay. All right. Yeah. I do.
27:57
I, I, yeah. I think they'll open at even money, but I don't know if that's the right line. Again, I'm just guessing. I have no idea. Yeah. It just, I can't wrap my b- brain around it.
28:03
Like, we see these awards markets all the time like, "Wow, that guy's three to one, that's short," or, "He's four to one, that's way too short." Like Mahomes, b- people go, "Oh, well, can't bet Mahomes at plus 475.
28:12
That's way too short." Minus money for MVP, a season long award, it's just, it's crazy to think about, it really is. But it's, but it's probably the right price. What did you bet today in baseball?
28:20
Uh, I bet the Royals with, uh, Lugo going against Ben Lively. And it's interesting with Cleveland, man. A couple times this month, you know, Minnesota got right there about to tie them for the division.
28:30
Cleveland got on a run, built themselves a nice little cushion. And the same thing, I think it was a week ago today, Kansas City was about to take the lead in division. Yeah. About to take first place.
28:39
I know we were on that group text like, "Oh, those K- those, uh, Guardians division tickets are confetti now." And Kansas City I think was up five-two in the seventh or eighth inning.
28:46
Cleveland comes back and wins that game to stay in first, and they've just kind of run away with it here, where now we're in a position where we've got the AL East race, which I don't want to talk about by the way, and we have the, uh- [laughs]...
28:56
nationally wild card race. Other than that, all of these races might be spoken for, but, uh, you know, back to this handicap here, I just think Lugo at home, uh, against Lively.
29:04
Lively, bottom of the league in velocity, exit velocity. Doesn't get any chases, doesn't get any swings and misses. Royals obviously hit much better at home. Their offensive numbers at home are much better.
29:14
And as somebody who's very unbiased, uh, an unbiased observer of the American League Cy Young race, I think if Seth Lugo and Kansas City win this game today, you have to give him the Cy Young.
29:22
[laughs] I think you'd agree, right? [laughs] Um, uh, e- th- by the way, that's a good, good recall on that. That the Guardians had beaten... Excuse me, the Royals had beaten the Guardians three times in a row. Yep.
29:32
It was tied, and the Guardians needed a five run eighth to tie the fourth game around. That's a great point on that.
29:40
You say you, uh, have no interest in talking about the AL East race, so let's talk about the AL East race. You are a Yankees fan. Uh- Are you feeling confident at all? At all. Confident, confident in what?
29:49
In, in them- Confident, confident in the other team when Clay Holmes comes in the game. [laughs] I mean, it just, I don't know if you saw the ball DJ LeMahieu dropped to kind of start things off- Oh, no...
29:56
in the eighth inning. It's a ball like a Little Leaguer would've caught, and I'm not even exaggerating. I don't know.
30:01
They p- you start to get down on them, they w- they rip off like four out of five, and you start to feel good ab- about, about them. They lose.
30:06
They really- Missed the window of opportunity to, uh, to expand the lead and, and it's a good reminder going forward, and you talk about it a lot. You have a, a month with a soft schedule, that doesn't always manifest.
30:16
And they had this past month, this August, where they played the White Sox and the Angels and the Nationals and the Rockies, and man, they're gonna run and hide.
30:22
Well, they, they basically, you know, split those games and didn't run and hide. So I favor Baltimore just because Baltimore has the tiebreaker right now. I, I think it's a toss-up.
30:30
I think Baltimore's now actually favored in the odds.
30:33
I wouldn't be shocked if the Yankees won, but, um, look, I've, I've been back and forth, and rightfully so, 'cause both these teams have been so strange, so up and down.
30:40
Right now, like, if you gave me truth serum and you asked me who wins the division, I, I think I'd say Baltimore. Orioles minus 125, Yankees even- Yeah... money at DraftKings. Uh, week one, National Football League.
30:49
Do you go pretty aggressively on week one? Do you hold it back? Is there no really pat answer to that question? Um, I'm, I'm less aggressive. I- I'm less aggressive.
30:59
'Cause as much as we think we know, I mean, that doesn't mean it's, we're gonna see it in week one and, and these teams play less and less in the preseason.
31:05
You, you have a good line I think of just, man, your, your natural instinct to take points should be the right one. Yes.
31:10
It's probably the right one where, and you're gonna lay points w- in these games, you, you're probably asking for trouble, so I, I'm a little less aggressive. What did you end up with?
31:17
What's the one you feel the most conviction on? I like that under in Steelers-Falcons just because I think you've got two defensive coaches.
31:26
Um, you know, m- most coaches now, fourth and two from the fifth year are gonna go for it. These two guy- these, these guys might punt.
31:31
Russell Wilson's a perfect under quarterback 'cause he's gonna take care of the ball. He's not gonna turn it over, but I don't know how much he's gonna move the ball.
31:38
Uh, Cousins coming off the Achilles against a pretty good pass rush, you figure they'll probably be conservative and, you know, the, the whole thing last year was they didn't give Bijan Robinson the ball enough.
31:45
Figure they'll get him involved. Arthur Smith's a conservative offensive coordinator. I just think a lot adds up to, you know, a, I don't know, 21-20, 20-17 type of game. I like the under there.
31:54
Uh, Will Hill, not only the host of the Should'a Bet More podcast, uh, not only part of the Chris Fallica BetBets pod empire over at Fox Sports, but a key cog in the Megapod wheel.
32:03
The Beating the Book Megapod wheel, we had our first one yesterday, Will. So much fun. So much fun. Just a blast. Todd Wishnev, um, not annoying at all, by the way. Not at all.
32:12
Uh, and Steve Fezzik was our first rotating guest of the year. So it was just, it was information, it was funny, it was awesome. Uh, so I- I think it was good because we all love Fezz and respect Fezz enough- Yes...
32:21
but we all know him well enough where we can need him a little bit. [laughs] Yes. It was just the perfect balance. Yeah, I might've, I might've started that within 60 seconds by calling him something. Um, yes.
32:28
Well, yeah, [laughs] that was perfect. Yeah. You just said it so casually. Yeah. And if anyone was wondering, hey, the, the first round of picks, is anyone gonna try to steal half a point, we make odds on it. Oh, yeah.
32:37
The favorite cash there, if you know what I mean. [laughs] Absolutely. You can imagine who that might have been. Uh, last thing. Yeah, yeah. 30 seconds. Your favorite college football play of the weekend.
32:47
Under Michigan, Texas has gotten bet here, but I'd still lean that way. I think the only way Michigan can win this game is just run the ball, bleed the clock, hopefully steal a possession.
32:56
Michigan team total under might be the w- better way to go, although I got burned on that last week with, I, I thought a pretty good handicap [laughs] with Notre Dame team total under, but I'm going Michigan-Texas under the, uh, 42 and a half.
33:05
Yes. Willie, always a pleasure, man. Thank you for, uh, thank you for doing this. Thank you for doing the Megapod. Look forward to a great year doing that, man. All right. See you guys. Thanks for having me.
33:12
@NotTheWillHill, that's The with two Es, on the Twitter machine if you want to, uh, check out Will's musings. Musings the correct word? His little pithy remarks- Sure, yeah... that he has on there? Sure. Musings.
33:24
Uh, we'll come back. Speaking of musings, teaser time. Ready for this? Yeah. Teasers for week one- Go... in the National Football League.
33:31
There are some, uh, how can I put this, obvious spots, obvious in quotes, as obvious as they might seem, and then not so obvious ones. We'll see how we tackle this. That's on the other side.
33:41
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. I really wanna emphasize this.
33:58
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34:44
SportTrade, minus 104 lines, high limits, get it now. Alex Kane, the CEO, uh, we will have him on at some point, either this week or next. Yeah. Kelly is efforting such a thing. Well, they, they, they...
34:56
I, I've, I've, I've spoken with him, but as you kind of just alluded to, they've got, they are very busy with some exciting things coming up. So yeah. Busy man. We will be working him in at some point.
35:05
Excited to have Alex back on. Great hair. [laughs] Absolutely. Great hair. Always gotta give a shout-out p- got the dudes with great hair. Great hair.
35:11
By the way, someone, uh, someone on Twitter said you look like James Corden. Yeah, I've gotten that before. Uh, the, the one that I get, uh, way too often is Seth Rogen. Really? Yeah. Yeah. No, I don't see it.
35:22
And not that it bothers me, but it's just, like, w- I don't see it at all. You know what I mean? Don't be too bothered. [laughs] If you know what I mean. The best is- Um-... I'll be, I'll be out with a friend- Yeah...
35:32
w- who actually looks like him. Yeah. So then they always say it to him, and I'm like, "I just gotta be out with you more often so I don't get this." Hmm. Yeah. Uh, we'll get to your tweets here momentarily.
35:40
Best listeners in the game. Love you guys. Um, again, good, bad, you can, you can murder us. As long as you're funny, we'll still read it. Yep. Um, teasers. Teaser T- it's not Tuesday, though. Nope, teaser Tuesday.
35:51
It's teaser Wednesday. Teaser time. It's teaser time Oh, I forgot how quick that was. Yeah, that was real, real quick and snappy. Boom, boom, boom. Nice job, Ryan. Great voice.
36:01
Uh, teaser time, which again, when we did, uh, when Kelly and I did Prime Time Action with Matt Brown, uh, some years ago, uh, we lost Teaser Tuesday in the divorce. Yeah, I just renamed it.
36:11
So- I forgot, remember we were talking about that? Was it a couple weeks ago? Yeah. I couldn't remember. Yeah.
36:15
That's, that's when I couldn't- So Kelly, in the divorce proceedings, just decided to be clever and call it teaser time. [laughs] Now, here's the thing. We will- Mm-hmm...
36:21
as we do this week after week, we will refer to something called Wong teasers. Yep. Uh, which I've been talking about on this show from its inception.
36:29
Uh, Stanford Wong is the pseudonym of a gentleman by the name of John Ferguson, who lived in, uh, southern California, and, uh, he wrote a book, Sharp Sports Betting. We talked about this on the Megapod yesterday.
36:41
Um, but he used the pseudonym Stanford Wong, which Steve Fezzik explained how he got there on, on the Megapod.
36:46
But w- the definition was, he wrote this book and he identified the, the most plus EV teaser legs back in the day. He did this, like, you know, way back in the '90s.
36:58
Uh, a Wong teaser is a, I don't know if you guys can put it... Thank you, guys. A Wong teaser's two games, six-point teaser in which teasing the spread moves through the two key numbers of three and seven.
37:08
In other words, um, and I'll ad lib here 'cause it's not exactly right, it's a teaser involving favorites, uh, home favorites, specifically, of between seven and a half and eight and a half teased down through the seven and three, or underdogs, either home or road, of between one and a half and two and a half, uh, two and a half points teased upward through the three and the seven.
37:29
Now, you'll see that one of the things that is o- that I omitted there, um, and just 'cause don't take that definition verbatim, one of the things I omitted is this does not apply to road favorites of between seven and a half and eight and a half that you tease down through the seven and three.
37:42
But those three, uh, teaser legs are the most t- tried and true. Now, when we say it now in 2024, we have to sort of add the caveat that things have changed. There are now two-point conversions. Yeah.
37:55
Coaches handle that differently, and it's also total dependent, right? Right, right.
38:00
So the, the s- the lower the total, the more valuable those points are, and that should make intuitive sense, that if a game is lined at, uh, I'll just use a crazy example, if a game is lined at 60 versus 40, that the points in a 40-point lined game are gonna be that much more valuable.
38:18
So Kelly, on a week-to-week basis, will throw out teaser options, some of which will be Wong-ish, Wong-esque. Not Wong-ish, they are Wong-esque. Um, some of which will not be. Kelly has, uh, poetic license to do this.
38:31
Yeah. So for week one, what did you come up with, sir? Uh, we started with, I just started at the top of the board and went down, so Ravens catching two and a half, uh, in Kansas City tomorrow night.
38:40
Packers two and a half against the Eagles, uh, in Brazil, although that is dropping a little bit. That, I think that got up to three yesterday, and then got immediate Packers action and came back down.
38:49
There are a couple twos out there right now. Giants, same thing yesterday. I think that, that line got up to f- uh, flat too, and the Giants money came back in. W- was mainly one and a halfs right now, um, on that game.
39:00
Even a couple ones out there. Bengals eight and a half, although there are, there are seven and a halfs out there right now with, uh, Ja'Marr Chase, uh, news still looming. Big day for that, by the way.
39:10
Practice, kind of official start, uh, of the regular work week for them, so if he's not there today, I think Sunday's very much in question. Colts catching two and a half at home.
39:18
Cowboys catching two and a half on the road at Cleveland. So these all qualify as Wong legs. Stanford Wong teaser legs.
39:26
Um, again, not with, not, uh, we won't get into, oh, well, this one has this total and this one doesn't just for the sake of time here on the show. It's also moved, right? From like the original- Yeah...
39:35
and we've, we've always talked about that the past couple years, where I don't know how much you really consider that when you're making your teaser plays. I- Um, I do a little bit. I do a little bit- Yeah...
39:44
but not real- not really unless we're talking well into the f- like, e- and- Yeah... we're into the 50s pretty much. I just wanna make people aware- Yeah... that these are sort of the, the- Yeah...
39:51
the guidelines, if you will. The guardrails of this kind of thing. Um, so our task then is to come up with our favorite two leg, six-point teaser, right? We are limiting it to six-point teasers. Yes? Yes.
40:04
Okay, just making sure. We do this on the Megapod as well, by the way. Everybody gives their, their favorite, uh, two leg, six-point teaser.
40:10
So for me, the Bengals, no longer with the teaser protection of a minus nine here, they are the obvious leg. I- if there's no Ja'Marr Chase, are they, is, are they still the most obvious leg to you? Yes, because- Okay...
40:23
I don't know if you know this, they are playing an outfit that I like to call the New England Patriots. Yep. So I'm gonna go, I'm gonna, the Bengals w- to me are the obvious anchor leg.
40:31
What could possibly go wrong, as I say that way too confidently about the Patriots? Um, so for me it would be the Bengals and someone else. The problem is, I don't love any of the other Wong legs.
40:43
Like, y- you know, if, if you told me the Ravens got blown out by the Chiefs, would I be surprised? No, I wouldn't be. By the way, I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens won it outright either. Right.
40:51
But again, the week one uncertainty leads me to, like, would I be surprised if in Brazil on Friday night, the Packers got beat by double digits by the Eagles? I would not.
41:00
Would, would I be surprised if the lowly Giants, as, you know, as mediocre as the Vikings are expected to be, would I be surprised if the Giants got beat by double digits? I would not. Nope. Yep. All right?
41:11
And so it, and, and it extends down. Cowboys and Brownies, same sort of thing. Sorry, Cowboys fans. Sorry, Dave Ross. Apologize for that.
41:18
Um, so for me, it became, all right, it, am I gonna lose my wise guy card, as my mishpucha Chrissy used to say. You're gonna lose your wise guy card here by pairing one Wong leg with a non-Wonger. Ooh, okay.
41:31
And so I, uh, I will tell you what I did on the Megapod, and again, I encourage everybody to listen to the Beating the Book Megapod with, uh, me, Will, Todd, and Steve Fezzik this week. Um, I went Bengals, Jets.
41:43
I took the extra points with the Jets. I'm already, and this should correlate with your handicap on the game line itself. So I already have the Jets plus the points, so in this one case I decided Uh, you know what?
41:54
I'm gonna pair the Bengals with the Jets. The Jets catching 10 in this case, and I'll play it that way. I, I, I think I play the four- the plus four and a half in teasers more, more than most people- Yeah...
42:05
that we talk to. [clears throat] I do, I do think getting through that 10, there is some value there. But the, uh, so the one I do, I do have one.
42:11
I think it's worth mentioning, too, like teasers historically not, not as valuable week one, early weeks, right? Just, just 'cause everything you s- uh, talked about with Will, right? How do you approach week one?
42:21
Some people like to dial back, like to see these teams for a couple weeks first, like to see where the market's gonna be rating these teams at, and then adjust, uh, uh, adjust properly with their teasers.
42:30
So I've got one. It- it's not even playable right now, though. Bengals are teased down, and I have the Vikings teased up 'cause they were a dog when I bet it. Um, they were a one-and-a-half point dog.
42:39
So it's Bengals and Vikings is the one I actually played. The only ones I would have interest in are bottom of the board are Colts and Cowboys. I, I do think you're gonna get the Texans...
42:48
You're getting the Texans coming into town, uh, in, in Indianapolis there. That's a...
42:53
Man, it's showing Houston a lot of respect early on, and I think there's been, there's been a lot of Texans money coming in, and you're still not seeing that move to the full three, uh, many places.
43:03
That's kinda surprised me. I think the books are kinda making a stand at that two and a half. I think being able to t- tease up the Colts at home to eight and a half would interest me, but I don't have a bet in.
43:12
And then Cowboys, I, we, we've talked about these past couple weeks. Are we sleeping on this team a little bit? I think so. Maybe. And the Browns still got a lot to prove to me offensively of what they can do.
43:22
Yes, the defense is scary, uh, but in what I expect to be a lower scoring game, that eight and a half points could be big. Yeah.
43:29
I mean, the, that's the overriding theme of this is we should all tread lightly with everything we think we know, not just in our sides, but also with teasers.
43:38
And so for me, I just went with, again, this is a week one thing, and yes, they will be barging in here any moment and taking away the wise guy card for going with a, uh, teaser leg on the Jets from four to 10.
43:48
By the way, I- they didn't have the four and a half yesterday- Yeah... when we were doing the mega pod. Um, so for me it's the Bengals and the Jets. But teasers, um, you know, still a very good way.
43:57
By the way, teasers are very price sensitive as well. Mm-hmm. Yes. Uh, you are tr- The higher they're making the juice on these, the higher your winning percentage has to be to break even.
44:07
So shop around for teaser prices, 'cause that is absolutely a thing. This two-leg six pointers used to be even money- Mm-hmm... long ago. Those days are far over.
44:17
But at least you can, uh, look for shops where the, uh, the juice is muted somewhat. Uh, but last year on the mega pod, uh, 13 and 7, 13 and 7, 11 and 5.
44:26
Uh, excuse me, 13 and 5, 13 and 5, 11 and 7 were our teaser records. Nice. So still a very profitable way to go. Uh, we'll come back. Ed Fang and the 24-Hour Guide to Betting the NFL next.
A Numbers Game
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