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Sep 4, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 4, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 4, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Each and every way you take us in, doesn't matter which way, we appreciate it very much.
0:18
Shout out to the Game Plus folks in Canada, though. Oh, yeah. We're always tickled. Absolutely. We're always tickled by that. Uh, it's Gil Alexander. That is Kelly Bidlin.
0:25
Still to come this hour, Jason Weingarten on, uh, NFL awards, or NFL season long, some MLB thoughts as well. Does he think Jackson Churio is still in the, uh, NL Rookie of the Year race?
0:36
Uh, we will get into that with him, and Kelly and I have ourselves a little something we like to call an NFL awards draft, where again, we're doing a mythical thing where we're drafting, uh, 10 different bet- 10 mythical bets, $100 a piece, um, but we have to do a- Yeah, 10 spots open...
0:52
10 spots open, a minimum of five. Yeah, minimum five today. All right, I have a strategery- Yeah... that I'm gonna, I'm gonna beat you with here today, I think. We'll see. Maybe not. Maybe- We'll see...
1:01
maybe you will anticipate my strategy and block me from the strategy. No. Very- No, I don't think so... very exciting. I don't really know where you're go- where you're going with this strategy, so yeah.
1:10
Guess we'll find out together. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, this man's brain is much larger than yours and mine combined. Uh, he is the proprietor of the Power Rank.
1:19
It's our buddy Ed Feng, Stanchard, uh, Stanford graduate and PhD, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Ed? Nothing much. Thanks, guys, so much for having me.
1:29
Uh, Ed, would you, would you please, you know, we do this annually with you. Would you please tell people what your, uh, your thesis was for your PhD? It was the kinetic theory for, uh, polymers.
1:42
It was a, uh, a very theoretical study in how polymers move in liquids with pretty much zero application to the real world, uh, but it was a lot of fun. Kelly took that at FSU his freshman year.
1:53
Yeah, you, you never asked me- Yeah... what my thesis was on. What was your thesis? I, I, I just barely got a bachelor's degree at first. [laughs] It took, took five, it took five years, okay?
1:59
Ed, I love that you, I love that you have decided to, to devote your life though to the sports prognostication business.
2:07
When was it, when was it at, after you, you went through your academic life where you were like, the light bulb turned on and you're like, "Nope, this is what I'm doing"?
2:17
I think it was when I realized that I could actually apply all this math that I was learning to sports.
2:24
Uh, I actually have a pretty sophisticated algorithm, uh, for how to rank college football and NFL teams, and it's one of these things that, uh, I could have written a paper about, and I think it would've been publishable, and, and, uh, I think probably would've, uh, uh, gotten some attention in the academic world.
2:41
But Gil, I don't care about that. I actually wanna win some sports bets. There you go. And, uh, hopefully some of the things we'll talk about today are, are much less sophisticated models.
2:49
I will not get another advanced degree based on them, but they are very effective and, uh, I'm proud to be, uh, just play a little part in that. Polymers, Kelly. Polymers. Polymers. Um, okay, Ed, let me ask you this.
3:00
So you've, we've had you on before when you would do your guide to March Madness and how to win your bracketology pool, your bracket pool. Um, now you've done something called the 24-Hour Guide to Betting the NFL.
3:13
Explain to us, sir. Yeah. It's the 60-Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season. Uh, I wanted to create, uh, something of high quality, but an audio product. I feel like there's, uh...
3:24
And, and with some actionable, uh, betting information in there. So there's two deep dive stories into analytics that I've done, uh, that have betting applications.
3:35
The first one is how to predict interceptions, and I talk about, uh, Josh Allen in that case, and how he seems like a gunslinger, uh, but the reality is much different when you look at some of these advanced statistics.
3:46
And then the second story is, uh, how to make, uh, surprisingly accurate NFL spread predictions. This is based on the wisdom of crowds.
3:54
It's something I never thought, uh, in my wildest dreams would be an accurate way of making NFL spread predictions this week, like pouring through what sports writers are writing out there.
4:05
Um, you know, you can just Google NFL power rankings right now, and you get the subjective opinions of a lot of sports writers, but when you combine a lot of them together,
4:14
it ends up being a really, uh, powerful tool for predicting NFL spreads.
4:18
I certainly don't recommend just taking this model that a- actually has been 54-plus percent against the spread the first six weeks of the season and just betting on that. But I do think it is a really important tool
4:31
to, to assess team strength in the NFL, um, and that actually persists all the way through the play- playoffs. I got thrown off by the fact that it is the year 2024.
4:38
It is actually called the 60-Minute Guide to the 2024, [clears throat] pardon me, Football Season, The Ultimate Betting and Analytics Preview. Best way for people to get this, Ed, is at, uh, on Twitter at The Power Rank?
4:51
Yeah, you can do that. I mean, um, there, I have a URL, uh, thepowerrank.us, that'll take you to a place on my site.
4:58
And I actually think the most important thing here is if you have certain types of plans on Spotify, you can actually listen for free. Uh, you can check that out on my site. Nice. Or, um,
5:08
but also it's available for $4.99, um, a lot of places, on a lot of platforms in which you get your audiobook, and it's, and it's linked to my Twitter as well- All right... or my X.
5:18
Did I, did I catch in there that you actually had an interceptions, most interceptions bet on Josh Allen? Is that the case? Um, I looked at the market for Allen.
5:28
I, I wanted to kind of use Allen as an example for someone who seems like a reckless gunslinger, and I just, I took the example of his three-interception game to Jordan Whitehead to open the 2023 season.
5:39
Um, the truth is actually a lot different. Uh, I was actually thinking of betting a Josh Allen under, uh, for the season. It turns out there's not a lot of value there.
5:49
Uh, the guy's just healthy and tends to play 16, 17 games, um, so I didn't see a lot of value. Uh, but I'd be happy to share another season-long interception bet if, if you guys would be interested. Please, absolutely.
6:01
One quarterback that this analysis really highlights, and this is actually, I didn't put the, him in the guide, uh, is Baker Mayfield.
6:07
This is, um, the analysis of interceptions is based on how often, uh, a quarterback puts a ball in dangerous situations. Clearly, when the ball gets intercepted, it's a dangerous situation.
6:19
But also, when the pass gets defended, when the defense gets a hand on the ball, that is a situation in which the quarterback puts it, the ball in a dangerous situation.
6:28
Baker is, uh, the worst at putting the ball in dangerous situations. He does it at a very high rate. He does it at a rate higher than anyone else who's thrown 1,000 pass attempts in the NFL over the last three seasons.
6:42
Will Levis is actually worse, but, uh, we, you know, we only have a one-year rookie sample size for him. So, so Baker Mayfield is, um, is really the worst at, um...
6:53
I, I predict him to throw a lot of interceptions this year. Um, at one point this summer, you could have gotten on FanDuel Baker 16 to 1 to lead the NFL in interceptions. I think there's good value.
7:04
I think that number should be closer to, uh, to plus 750, which is where the favorite was. Uh, and I also, on FanDuel right now, you can get Baker over 10 and a half interceptions.
7:15
Uh, I think there's a lot of value there. I put it closer to 12 and a half, and that's only assuming he throws about 500 pass attempts. He actually threw 566 in the regular season last year.
7:26
Um, I also don't think he gets benched, 'cause I just don't think that they're gonna go with a Kyle Trask or, uh, a John Wolford there. And, uh, so
7:37
assuming he stays healthy, I, I definitely see him throwing 11 or more interceptions. I like it. That's strong conviction on Baker Mayfield most interceptions for those books that have that available.
7:46
Ed was quoting the FanDuel numbers. Uh, I remember you'd come on before. We'd had l- we've had long discussions on the most sacks market as well. Do you have thoughts there? I have a lot of thoughts about sacks.
8:00
I haven't actually looked at the most sack market. But, um,
8:05
Gil, I'm actually, this is one thing I really wanna get into this season, and the main reason is because quarterbacks have a lot more control over sacks than, uh, than people think.
8:14
People think it's an offensive line thing, and yes, they certainly play a role.
8:18
But when you look at a quarterback's sack rate allowed, so you just take sacks divided by, by, I think you need to do pass attempts plus sacks in the NFL. When you look at that rate, it's wildly predictive.
8:30
So it is on q- it, it is about equivalent to, um, a quarterback's p- completion percentage or, um, this, this, his bad ball rate, the, the rate that quarterbacks put the ball into dangerous situations.
8:43
It's about as sticky as those two quantities.
8:45
Now, Gil, when you take, like, sacks, and you add in quarterback hits on top of that, so you look at all the times that a quarterback gets contacted, and this is, this is just something that's in the NFL data, that contact rate is, like, twice as predictive as even the sack rate.
9:00
So quarterbacks have all kinds of control over how often they get contacted. You, you can kinda think about it in terms of the pocket presence.
9:06
Like, do you have a guy like Tom Brady that knows how to get rid of the ball, not take a hit, not get sacked? That's all on the quarterback, whether his line is, is good or bad.
9:16
And I think when you're looking, uh, my intention this year is, like, when you're looking at sack props to bet for the game, yes, you certainly wanna look who the defender is. Right?
9:26
Because there's a difference between Micah Parsons and, um, you know, the fourth stringer on the Cowboys. But you also really need to look at the opposing quarterback. I'm really interested to see how the market, uh,
9:37
uh, looks into that, and, uh, that, that is something I'm looking to build models for this year like I have for interceptions in the past. All right. I like that.
9:46
Some food for thought for folks from a week-to-week basis on, um, sack props of individual quarterbacks based on everything that Ed was just talking about. Ed, always a pleasure, man. Great to see you.
9:57
Um, and good luck with the 60-Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season: The Ultimate Betting and Analytics Preview, man. Thank you for coming on. Thank you so much for having me, Gil and Kelly.
10:07
Ed Feng at The Power Rank, Stanford PhD. Can I read some tweets, by the way? Is that allowed? Yeah, you can. Absolutely. Uh, we get tweets. Great stuff from Ed.
10:14
Ed, Ed Feng always, uh, putting out something that's, uh, a little different than the, the normal fare- Yeah... that you would get.
10:21
That's, uh, I did bet Levis most interceptions this year, um, which at least is a little bit in line with, uh, you know, what he, what he was bringing up with those guys.
10:28
But I, I can't, I, Baker Mayfield I think's a good bet in that market too. [laughs] This is from, uh, Todd Bubba Horowitz on Twitter. We get tweets. Uh, "Thanks for the great tennis picks.
10:38
Uh, the new studio will prevent me from barging in when I want. You now have a lock on the door." And then he, uh, sort of acronyms something, something- [laughs]... sort of badly, badly phrased there, uh, bad words.
10:51
Um, so I don't know that we have a lock on the door. Do we? Uh, yes, we have a lock on the door. Kelly, I forgot to mention it. [laughs] That's just taken- Uh, Lehman Forrest, who am I thinking of? You're regardless.
10:58
Don't bring it up, Gil. [laughs] Forrest Lehman. Forrest Lehman says, "Way more scared of Livvy than Skeens."
11:04
I guess he's got a Jackson Merrill ticket for, uh, off, uh, for, uh, rookie of the year, and, uh, he's way more scared of Olivia Dunn, I guess is what he's saying, Skeens' girlfriend, than Skeens himself.
11:13
I don't know why he's scared of Olivia Dunn. Dream K, uh, Dream K Rushers- Just that narrative. What's that? I think that, that, that's the part of the narrative- Oh...
11:19
that's gonna win out over Skeens' pitching right now. That's right. That's right. Uh, Dream K Rushers, "Hey, Gil. Just heard you mention my play on ANG. Your advice was solid and appreciated.
11:27
Oh, played 1,000 on Navarro and $200 parlay Navarro/Muhova. Like you, would be stunned if Muhova loses today."
11:34
That was the gentleman who, uh, wanted advice on his, uh, on his parlay, and so he, uh, at least got the Navarro money home yesterday.
11:42
We'll read more of your tweets on the other side, and our NFL draft, our awards draft, our awards betting draft between Kelly and me, that's next right here on The Numbers Game.
11:58
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network And don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
12:10
Looking at the front page, Tyler Shoemaker, our guy on the WNBA, uh, that's front and center, as is college football every which way. We must have double digits worth of college football best bets articles.
12:22
JVT's doing it, uh, up on there. VSiN staff, generic as well. Adam Burke is doing that. Steve Makinen, uh, Zach Cohen on his week one thoughts, Ravens and Chiefs tomorrow. He's also got tennis picks on there as well.
12:34
Um, it's all there. Every sport you could imagine, every betting thought you could imagine at vsin.com. Check it out. Uh, not only do we get, uh, tweets, Kelly, but we, uh, sometimes get emails from folks- Mm-hmm...
12:46
which is always nice. Uh, this email is from Danny. Danny says, "Ol' Reliable Gil, I've gotta ask the question, how do most books handle the settlement of the Tiafoe match at the US Open?" Specifically this play.
13:01
He had a two-leg parlay. He had, uh, Aryna Sabalenka on the money line parlayed with Tiafoe plus two and a half sets. Uh, I know you're super busy, but any, uh, input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks. Danny.
13:14
Danny, the, uh, the answer to your question is dependent on, well, I don't even know in the case of the two and a half sets if it's dependent upon the book that you are.
13:23
Yeah, in this case, um, what's gonna happen is your parlay is gonna reduce to just a s- it's gonna reduce to a single side play on Sabalenka. So you will get your Sabalenka money.
13:33
I'm assuming it was the Sabalenka match- Absolutely... from yesterday. Um, but Frances Tiafoe, even though he was going to win the plus two and a half sets no matter what, right?
13:44
Even if he l- ended up losing the match somehow, he would still have wo- you would still have won the plus two and a half sets.
13:50
But the fact that it didn't, that it didn't end, that it didn't close, my hunch is, is that your book will simply reduce it to the one side bet on Sabalenka. I know that stinks- Yeah...
14:02
but that's usually how that goes down. It's a, it's a great question. Uh, I mean, so much of a great question that I don't, w- I don't think you, neither you or I could answer that definitively- Not definitively...
14:12
right? But I think you're right. Yeah. That, now w- And it never makes any sense. Whenever I hear so- Yeah... some of those, like, come on, it w- it was gonna win regardless. Yeah. Like, just pay it out.
14:20
That's, that's usually, and now is there, might there be a book here and there might handle it differently? Yes, but that's st- that's generally how they would handle that.
14:27
Uh, we do get tweets @BeatingTheBook, not sure if you're aware of this. Always appreciate the feedback. Uh, best listeners in all of radio.
14:34
Forget just sports betting, best listeners in all of sports radio, uh, @BeatingTheBook. And again, uh, we appreciate everything. By the way, a huge amount of response on the mega pod yesterday. We'll get into those.
14:45
Uh, just read this one, guys, before. This is from Andrew D. Wrin. "Go back to Bar Canada so I can see the updates for Millions- [laughs]... and Survivor in the background."
14:53
He then adds with a subsequent tweet, "Just for this week, though." [laughs] Just for this week.
14:57
That was, that was funny the couple times you asked me that, like last week or the week before, and I was like, "Yeah, it's, uh, just let me look behind your shoulder real quick." Where is Millions?
15:04
By where is Survivor right now? We've passed the book. Well, now I'm, now, now I'm trying to look if they've got it up here. Yeah. We'll get you that answer.
15:09
This is from RoadKingKR, "Gil, new segment of Numbers Game, Kelly guesses college football lines and what man has the best body." [laughs] Oh, we, you know what I thought about that last night? Yeah. I'm sorry.
15:20
We, we forgot to br- uh, we, I forgot, not we. I'm not gonna bring anybody else into this. I forgot to- Yeah... uh, Tuesday's normally college football guessing lines day.
15:28
Oh, we gotta bring that- I guess we better start that next week... we gotta bring that back. We could've done it this week. Uh, that, that tweet, by the way, has everything to do with Kelly ad- Kelly admitting that, uh,
15:37
that, uh, he might, uh, be okay, very comfortable talking about good-looking guys. I'm just saying there's two good-looking Americans meeting in the semifinals of the US Open.
15:45
Wyatt, could you repeat that again in my ear about the Circa Millions and, and Survivor? 4,000 entries in Millions and 10,000 so far in Survivor, you said? Yeah.
15:57
Yeah, 10,000 are Survivor, so we- See, I can, I can literally see it in, uh, behind me in the screen- Yeah... but it's way across the other side of the sportsbook.
16:03
Uh, Doughboy, uh, says in, "Always wondered what happened to James Corden. Wasn't 'til you moved back into the time capsule I realized that he's your co-host, Gil."
16:10
[laughs] Okay, I've gotten that- And he does, he does throw that picture of James Corden-... I've gotten that once or twice as well. [laughs]... former, former late night talk show host.
16:15
James Corden don't, no longer does that talk show, does he? I was gonna say, former? I could not tell you who's on the air doing those right now. Nope. I don't think he does. I would gue- you don't think he's on anymore?
16:22
I don't think so. Oh, okay. Yeah, I don't think so. 'Cause I never see those car, those Carpool videos, like Carpool Karaoke anymore. Yeah, yeah. Oh, those were funny.
16:28
Uh, The Second Rower, "Host truth serum: Gil admits he gets paid to take vacations [laughs] in July." Oh, 'cause I s- I said that Colin Coward quote earlier- Yeah... where I said, "We don't get paid for football season.
16:39
We get paid for July." Uh, that's not what I admitted, The Second Rower, but clever. Jay Welch, uh, Jesse Welch, uh, "Whoa, whoa, whoa. I thought all politics talk would stay apolitical.
16:48
All week y'all keep talking about being left and right nonstop." [laughs] Yes. I hear you, man. These, uh, folks are upset with where we're sitting. Uh, not political, not political.
16:57
We should have more, uh, political talk coming up, apolitically speaking, as the, uh, as the election approaches. Uh, let's rifle through a couple more of these guys. J.R.
17:04
Stark3, "I've decided I'm just gonna watch A and G in a mirror so that Gil and Kelly are on the correct sides." We got a few of those.
17:10
We're now at the point, though, that I can't tell how many are serious and how many are just people a- like adding onto the- Yeah... jumping onto the joke. Just piling on. Yeah.
17:16
Oh, and this one here, BurnsM82, thank you, "Kids in a candy store, Gil." Yes, that's what I was trying to say, that we're at Circa. We're kids in a candy store. Okay.
17:25
[laughs] I, I got, we got a couple tweets about that, and I was like, "When did we talk about kids in a candy store?" I didn't know that's what- I was trying to s- Yeah, yeah, yeah... I was trying to come up with.
17:32
I didn't know that's what we were doing there. Uh, Giuseppe Bed 11, 'cause Giuseppe Bed one through 10 was taken. [laughs] "Not only different sides, but it's much brighter.
17:39
It's like you're doing the show in broad daylight. Also, I keep looking for a guy sneaking behind Kelly to play a machine that now isn't there." That's like, that reminds me of the classic Isaiah Wrinkle quote- Yeah...
17:49
because we have him directing the show today, about, uh, I believe it was Rob asking him if he had ever seen Ocean's 11. And he said, "Well, I've ne- I haven't seen one through 10." Heyo That guy, he was being serious.
18:01
[laughs] Um, and then Corbin also says, "Kids in a candy store," that's what you were going for, Gil. Let's, let's start our draft. We'll get to more... Thank you, Corbin.
18:07
We'll get to more of the, uh, tweets here coming up. But, uh, uh, NFL awards draft. Okay. So Kelly and I, we are tasked, Kelly has come up with this, 10, uh, total of 10 possible draftees right here- Yes...
18:21
in terms of mythical $100 bets. But we have to do a minimum of five, we can stop there if we want. Correct. Who gets the first pick? Because I wanna leave room for us to be able to add in season- Okay...
18:32
like we always talk about it being intelligent to do, right? That's right. So we're gonna leave a little bit of room. You can start first. I'll let you go first. Oh, why thank you. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
18:39
By the way, Joe Peta outside the studio. Really? Yeah, Joe Peta hanging out. That's distracting. Can't wait to say hi to him- Joe Peta... after this. Uh, we should get Joe on the show here either today or tomorrow.
18:49
Um, maybe not, [laughs] maybe not today. [laughs] Maybe tomorrow. Hey, Joe, uh- Um-... four minutes? [laughs] Uh, okay, so I get the first pick of this? Yeah. Okay.
18:56
Uh, first pick that I would like to go with, I actually, uh, I actually came up with a little list here yesterday. I am going to go with Brock Purdy 20 to one to win MVP. Okay.
19:08
Uh, the reason for this is that the 49ers are back intact. Um, he, before that sideways performance against the Ravens last year, was neck and neck in the MVP discussion.
19:21
20 to one, I am grabbing me some Brock Purdy at 20 to one. By the way, the, the, who determines the win here is what we have in pocket at the end, correct? Correct, yes. Okay. Yeah, yeah. By volume.
19:31
So yeah, I, I don't know about you, but I'll just say a strategy for, for this exercise right now, I'm looking at more, I don't wanna say a little bit longer shots than absolute sure shots at the top of the board- Hmm...
19:41
'cause we always talk about is there gonna be a better time in season to grab those, which I think there often is.
19:46
I, I can't believe it, every, every time we throw up the MVP graphics, I don't really ever consider betting him in this market, but man, Lamar Jackson feels long at 20 to one. Like, that is- Yep...
19:56
it just feels long with what he can do with his legs. All right, I'm- But, but is there part of, again, part of this discussion with Lamar Jackson is, are they willing to give him a third? Yeah. And that is a big part.
20:07
Yeah. It's a big thing. Are they- It's a big thing... willing to give him a third MVP? All right, my first pick- All right, so Purdy, 20 to one, number one...
20:11
Mike McDonald, Coach of the Year, and yes, I will go with the 10 to one that is listed to DraftKings. It is half of what I actually betted at.
20:18
Um, that is not a, you know, obviously a great thing to get in the, uh, habit of doing, uh, bet, betting, taking something at half of what you bet, betted at originally.
20:26
But, um, I know Gil's interested in it as well, so I'm, I'm gonna get the 10 to one now. Hmm. Especially the Seahawks are gonna start off as two favorites right in a row.
20:33
I, you know what, tip of the cap to Paulie Howard. I was listening to Follow the Money I believe it was two days ago. Look at headlines, week two lines, Seahawks.
20:42
Like, they're, they are playing the Patriots right now laying, they went, when Paul brought it up was laying two and a half on the road at New England. It's up to three now. I betted already at three, week two Seattle.
20:51
Uh, uh, so I think it's gonna get off to a strong start. I'm gonna w- wanna get r- uh, that bet in pocket now, so Mike McDonald, 10 to one Coach of the Year. Yeah. Do we get to smack talk the other person's picks?
21:01
Sure, yeah. Yeah, I wouldn't touch Coach of the Year. Okay. Are we snaking or is it my turn? Yeah, your turn. Uh- I'm gonna just go one away... uh, Tyreek Hill Offensive Player of the Year, seven to one. Let's go.
21:10
Self-explanatory. Reek trying to get to 2,000 receiving yards. Um, he is always in play for this award. Tyreek Hill seven to one Offensive Player of the Year. Wow. Okay, I'm gonna go same market. Ah. Not a bet I made.
21:24
Oh, I know, I know, I know, now I know- Ah... what you're trying to do. Ah. McCaffrey plus 850. You wanted to have both. I hate you. You wanted to have both and thought that would be a slam dunk.
21:32
You are an awful human being. McCaffrey, I, just after what you saw a year ago, I'm not saying this number's off, I mean, we have, I haven't bet it, you haven't bet it, right?
21:39
But, like, what, what makes you think that his production, barring injury, is going to slow down at all?
21:45
And I will, oh, I will still take the running back over the wide receivers, uh, both in front of him and behind him. So McCaffrey plus 850 for this exercise. Have I told you how much I hate you? Hmm? Yeah.
21:55
Uh, I'm gonna go same market, Breece Hall, 15 to one. Oh, see, now you stole one of mine. You stole one from mine. Breece Hall, 15 to one.
22:01
I think, uh, I think, this is not, uh, my own opinion, it's everyone's it seems to be, but Breece Hall I think is set for a monster year for the New York Jetropolitans, um, with Aaron Rodgers hopefully showing some skill level, modicum of a quarterback so the Jets can soar this year.
22:18
I think Garrett Wilson will have a big year too, but Breece Hall, 15 to one, rushing and receiving out of the backfield, give me that. You wanna do your third pick right here real quick? Yeah, real quick.
22:26
I will go Chop Robinson, Defensive Rookie of the Year. I'm coming around on this pick. I think that he is, uh, one of the limited, uh, pass rushers that the Dolphins will have. I think he could have a big year.
22:35
16 to one Defensive Rookie of the Year. Can't believe you blocked me on McCaffrey. Uh, we'll do more of this. Who you block- We'll read more of your tweets. [laughs] Jason Weingarten will join us.
22:43
It's a Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live here at Circa, the mothership, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada.
23:01
Derek Stevens, Empire, Skill Alexander, it's Kelly Billings, uh, where sports betting lives. Um, Kelly, have you ever, um, can I, can I say something heartfelt here?
23:09
Have you ever been humbled, um, by certain comments about something that you do? Um- No, I've never been that nice or done anything all that well. [laughs] Wow. [laughs] No, I'm playing around.
23:22
That's, so- I'm playing around. Yes, we get ex- excellent- Okay... excellent viewer, listener comments all the time that are very, very humbling.
23:28
Well, I, I've been doing the Beating the Book podcast since the dawn of time, since the dawn of podcast time. Mm. Uh, the mega pod is in, now going into its 14th year. Whew.
23:40
14th year of, of podcasting, and- Well, you had a good run[laughs] Had a good run [laughs] We're gonna tell you. No.
23:45
Uh, so yesterday we did week one, and it's me, Todd Wishnev, it's, uh, Will Hill, and then we have a rotating guest. That's always been the format. Um, Steve Fezzik happens to be the guest of week one.
23:54
Um, we go through our three best bets. We do our teaser of the week. We do our survivor pick. We have thoughts on Thursday Night Football. Every Megapod for 14 years has always ended with the same two questions.
24:05
Um, what's the big favorite that you think is the most likely to lose outright? What is the game if you had to...
24:11
in a bizarro world, you had to pick a side in every single game on the slate, but you had one free pass, one game that you wanted no part of, what would be that game?
24:19
So it's, it's a, it's a very formatted show, and it's awesome. And yesterday, I just wanna read through some. BigOATX, "The Megapod has returned. Let's go."
24:26
Uh, Brad, Detroit Lions fan, "3: It's not football season until we get a Megapod. Let's go." Jordan McBride, "Screw pumpkin spice season. This is the official start of fall." [laughs] Sam Lime, "Still the best.
24:36
Welcome back. Banshees of Atlantic City, our long national nightmare is over." Britain Hess. You know Britain Hess. Britain Hess. A fall tradition unlike any other, the masters of the Megapod.
24:46
Uh, Fezzik telling us that, saying that we, we say how we bet teasers optimally on the show, and what to do if all ties lose. Um, Snarky Fan, "Hells yeah, I'll be hiding out from my family and listening tonight."
24:58
Billy Shakes, "My only regret was being off the grid." Oh, he's talking about the tennis now. This, now he's on the gravy train, he said. Brandon Fear, "Love the Megapod per usual. Laughed out loud multiple times.
25:07
Thanks again for providing the fantastic content." And on and on. Durbin, "Todd is a national treasure whose genius will be appreciated more by future generations."
25:16
So I, I, I could go on, but they're, it's just so nice of everybody that still responds to the Megapod. So again, check it out after this show if you want, or s- well, at your own leisure.
25:25
Don't, don't do it in expense of listening to Stormy after this. But at your own leisure, uh, you know, check it out, Beating the Book Megapod.
25:31
Uh, W Stidman, "Football doesn't really start for me until I hear that first Megapod of the season. Todd needs to have a Monday segment breaking down his worst beats of each weekend. LOL." A lot of Wishnev love.
25:41
We'll get him on the show here as well. Um, this is from The Num Guys. Oh, hey K- [laughs] Kelly. The numbers guys. "Hey, Kelly- [laughs]... who's hotter? Who's hotter, Kelly? Adam Scott the golfer or Meg Ryan?"
25:54
Oh, man. No comment. What about Adam Scott the actor? [laughs] Uh, did anybody let Crack Man know that he shouldn't be going to the- Oh, this is such a good tweet. [laughs] What's...
26:03
Ah, I just wanna move on from that one. Jesse Welch, "Did anybody let Crack Man know that he shouldn't be going to the D tomorrow? Let's get him into the correct casino." Oh, man. That's a good point. Oh, we did.
26:11
I should probably let Crack know. What was that, the one day we had to rush over here to do the show, right? He went to the D. He went to the D.
26:16
We were like, we were like, I think at some point during the first hour I was like, "Hey, did either one of us tell Bill about this?" That's on me.
26:22
Dara76, "I was going through various long teasers at the books I have available in North Carolina. Prices varied for mu- from minus 115 to minus 150." Awesome. "Teas- teasing up was cheaper than teasing down."
26:35
Okay, so that's become a thing- Interesting... East Coast, yes. Can't wait for my first NFL season wagering at home. Good for you in North Carolina. Depending what numbers you're betting at, I've seen this, Gil.
26:44
It, it, it does, some of the numbers are priced differently when you're, when you're teasing up or teasing down. I, don't, don't ask why. I think it, I mean, I think the total, uh, has, is coming into play with those.
26:54
Um, but yeah, the, the, the teaser prices you guys have East Coast, though, uh, if, if that's what we're talking, I, I thought DraftKings was still minus one, minus 110. Maybe they went up.
27:05
Minus 115, though, that's a great price. It is currently, yeah. Well, our best one we can get in town is minus 125. Thank you for that question, Stringfellow Hawker, or that comment anyway.
27:13
Then, and this one, Wonging, "Does it have to be a line with a hook? So for example, Packers plus two and a half or one and a half, yes, but not two?"
27:20
No, anything between, so the two is, is also qualifies, that also qualifies as a Wong teaser leg. I'm guessing you and Steve talked about it on the pod. It's just if you go in tie, uh, on that one leg- That's right...
27:32
then it gets removed. Well, now, so we talked about this too. I didn't mean to talk about this on the show, but one of the things we talked about, 'cause we got into all kinds of things in an hour and 40 minutes.
27:39
It was a long week one pod. Um, one of the things is certain times when you do a two-leg six-point teaser- Mm...
27:48
it, there are certain books where if you lose one leg, if you lose on the first leg and you tie on the second one, let's say you do this example of, of hitting on the two, and you push the second one, most bettors immediately think, "Oh, I must have lost that teaser."
28:03
Yeah, no. Not true, because you can't, you can't reduce a two-leg teaser to a one-leg teaser. That doesn't exist. So it's a refund.
28:13
And so a lot of people throw their ticket away, and Fezzik, you can imagine, is one of these guys who dumpster dives for your tickets to get your refunds. [laughs] That's the kind of guy he is.
28:24
He'll also bring bouncy tennis balls when he gets crushed in tennis twice- I, have you-... so that he has an advantage over you Have you actually ever been dumpster diving? No. I di- I did it once. Did you really?
28:33
Yeah, when I was, like, 15 or something. Oh. At, at, like, like- Fezziks does, Fezzik does this as a grown adult. [laughs] Oh, no.
28:40
Don't forget being out, out in the back of, like, a Borders Books, and it was, like, CDs were being thrown out that weren't getting sold. Oh, yeah.
28:46
We also- CDs He also got into the strategy, and this is very Fezzik, where it's like if you had an open teaser and you lose the first one before they go and grade it as a loser- Oh, sneak in the second leg...
29:00
im- immediately sneak in a second leg that is not a hook- That's genius... that can be pushed so that you can somehow finagle a refund if you get lucky. Yeah, I don't have any other, I don't have any books- Oh...
29:12
av- the, that I bet at, uh, Gil, anymore that I can leave open teasers and open parlays, but those are nice, and that is a- Dude... smart, uh, smart strategy by our friend Steve Fezzik.
29:21
That dude, he's got- Minus 120 a price at, uh, DraftKings for teasers, my bad. Uh, let's finish our draft, shall we? Yeah. We shall. Number four. I'm getting the first pick on all these, huh? Yeah.
29:29
I have a bit of an advantage here. I like it. Thank you so much. Uh, number four for me, I am going with Jayden Daniels, Rookie of the Year. Uh, plus 475 is the number now.
29:39
I have him seven to one in pocket, but I'll take him plus 475. He should, uh, barring injury, which is a big phrase to use, barring injury- Uh, behind that offensive line.
29:50
I'm taking Jayden Daniels, Offensive Rookie of the Year, plus 475. I am going with a short shot next that I haven't bet.
29:58
We'll w- I don't think we'll be betting, but I really think there's a good chance this is the longest we see this number at. Um, and I know Jason's got things to say about it too next segment.
30:06
Aaron Rodgers, Comeback Player of the Year. I, if we think the Jets are gonna be good, you and I both do, I am coming more and more around to them winning this division.
30:15
I, plus 140, it might be, it b- that might be the longest number we see on him all year. So I will go Aaron Rodgers, Comeback Player of the Year, plus 140.
30:22
Uh, pick number five I'm completely unprepared for because you stole Christian McCaffrey from me. Mm-hmm. Uh- Well, you stole Brees Hall from me. Um, yeah, but that was my- You want, you want a snake? Should I go again?
30:33
Yeah, you go ahead. Don't worry, I'm not gonna steal anything you, uh- Yeah... you like. Mm-hmm.
30:36
Um, well, I mean, I've talked about it, I've bet it, and before the number gets shorter, we've gotta work in Anthony Richardson, MVP. Stop it. So 35 to one, let's go. Big week ahead against the Texans. Move aside, C.J.
30:50
Stroud, there's a new king of the AFC South coming. [laughs] Um, I'll go ahead. I mean- I love the false confidence I talk about Anthony Richardson with. Like, I don't know, he could be so bad.
30:59
Like, he could end up being so bad. You have Mike McDonald, Coach of the Year. Yeah. Um, I have him in real life Coach of the Year. Um, but just for the purposes of this draft, I'm gonna go with Shane Steichen. Okay.
31:09
Um, at, uh, what is that? Uh, 18 to one, is that what I'm looking at here, Shane Steichen? For- Steichen, 15 to one. Yeah, 15 to one. Yeah. All right, that's cool. Um, but he fits the, uh, Cleve TA- Mm-hmm...
31:19
uh, parameters on this in terms of the Colts being right in that pocket where you can actually win this award, what their record was last year, what they need to get to this year. So Shane Steichen, 15 to one.
31:31
I'm gonna go with that as pick number five. Okay, pick number five for me, and I will end it after this. Me too. The rest I'll save- That's it. That was the last for me... to add in season. Yeah. Yeah.
31:39
I like the, I like this- Yeah... 'cause you and I like to add in season anyways. Last one I would go is one, another one that I bet numbers moved on, though.
31:46
Keon Coleman, get up there and get those jump balls from Josh Allen all- Homer... all year long. What a homer pick. 35 to one. I'm hearing that's my sixth pick? Yeah, that, no, that was five. Wyatt?
31:56
Yeah, no, come on, Wyatt. What, that was six? No, it's five. Why, we have our intern saying that was our sixth pick. McDonald, McCaffrey, Chop Robinson. Oh, you had six. I had five. All right, fine, I'll do six then.
32:07
Leave six. I'll leave four, four- I'm leaving five... four spots out. Kelly's going six. That's fine. You're right. All right. That's fair. Good job, guys. Thanks. [laughs] Good job counting.
32:13
[laughs] Great radio when we're arguing with people you can't hear. It's, like, in our heads. [laughs] Um, uh, so Kelly will stop with six. Yeah, yeah.
32:20
I will stop with five on that, 'cause I do wanna, yeah, I wanna have a- I'm fine. It's the la- the, my last two were longer shots, so I'm fine with that. Here's the thing.
32:27
So w- we are, we are stuck with those five and six respectively for the entire year? Yes. This is not- Okay... like a baseball contest where you can change things. No, no, no. No, you're stuck. That's why.
32:35
You can only add on to. Yeah. So that's why you've gotta leave a bunch of these open. Yeah. Okay. We'll do it that way, and we'll see again.
32:40
Uh, if you hit multiple, obviously the aggregate number is what will, will determine the winner. What is the prize, sir? Did you think that through, that far through?
32:48
Well, we'll, we will, we will decide a financial, uh, arrangement- Okay... off to the side. Okay. All right. I'll ta- if, [laughs] if, if you win, I'll take you to my secret sushi spot.
32:58
You do not have a s- secret sushi spot. Zenshin at, uh, South Point. [laughs] I have eaten there before. [laughs] I think we all have. It's, it's okay. I'll leave it at that. [laughs] Uh, that's our awards draft.
33:10
Uh, we do these from time to time at different sports seasons, but we'll, uh, we will continue that as the season goes on- That one will be fun, yeah... when, when, when these come up, when we- Whenever we make a bet...
33:18
when we have a bet we wanna make- Yeah... or, and actually make. Uh, welcome back. Jason Weingarten is on the other side from Under a Cloud of Smoke. He has written a piece at vsin.com about NFL awards.
33:29
Also get his thoughts on NL Rookie of the Year. Does he think that Jackson Chio is part of this as well? That's on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network.
33:39
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back at Circa, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin right here on the Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network.
34:03
Uh, he comes to us from Under a Cloud of Smoke in Southern California, and he has, uh, he has really outdone himself today. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter, @spreadapedia, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, everybody.
34:13
It's Jason Weingarten. How you doing, Jason? A good week so far. What are we, Wednesday? Wednesday. We're Wednesday. Yeah. Yeah, we're good. All right.
34:24
Uh, Jason, let me ask you before we get to football, 'cause you wrote a great piece at vsin.com with some, uh, some thoughts on awards markets in the National Football League.
34:31
Um, what bets did you come up with in baseball today? So I got a couple things. Uh, first one I'll tell you, I have the, uh, the Diablo Rojos to Mexico City in the, uh, the Mexican Baseball League. It's a playoff game.
34:45
I think I laid 165 with them today. Um, I bet the Brewers. Brewers, I got plus 113 overnight. Now it's minus 115. I'd still play it, uh, smaller, much smaller, um, as a short favorite here, minus 115.
35:00
I've been following the Brewers, um, just the Brewers betting lines and stuff for the last week or 10 days, and somebody is betting the Brewers heavily, um, you know, on screen.
35:11
You could see some books are shading their opponents, like please come and bet whoever the Brewers are playing. Um, I've been paying attention to that.
35:18
They've been some competitive games, couple extra innings games, but, uh, somebody out there really likes the Brewers the last week or so. Um, and then I got the Tigers. Tigers plus 179.
35:30
I'm waiting for a first inning yes bet on that game. Yu Darvish, first game back, uh, wouldn't surprise me if he's a bit rusty. He also has a tendency to not be great in the first innings.
35:42
Um, so I, I kinda wanna take a, take a stab here at the Tigers at a, a pretty big price. You mentioned the Brewers.
35:49
Jackson Chio, um, do you think he will be- I know you're, you're a, you're a Jackson Merrill ticket holder, so I wanna sort of give that context.
35:58
Um, my, my working theory is that even though Jackson Merrill is minus 1,000 in the betting market, that this vote will be closer between Hitman Skeens than the betting market reflects. Do you agree with that?
36:11
And do you think Churio will even be, you know, competitive in this? I think Skeens will get some first place votes. I think, you know, he, he pitched really well again last night.
36:23
Um, at the end of the day, this is still the Rookie of the Year, and Jackson Merrill has been the best rookie all season. Uh, if, if the award mattered so much to the Pirates, they could've called Paul Skeens up earlier.
36:34
Um, as far as Jackson Churio goes, I think he's also a fairly legitimate candidate. I saw ESPN did a voting thing where they had, like, 18 votes, and the first place votes, I wanna say it was, like, 13, four, and one.
36:49
Mm. Um, you know, with Merrill, Skeens, and Churio. Um, but, but I've, I've discussed this, I've discussed this with you, I've talked to Doug Kazarian about it. Um,
37:00
if you think sk- if you think Merrill is the, the Rookie of the Year, which I do, and then you kind of look at Jackson Churio's numbers, you're more likely to, to put the Jacksons one and two and Skeens three, as opposed to Skeens in the middle of the two Jacksons.
37:16
Um, and I don't see a situation where you look at the, either of the Jacksons' numbers and you say, "Well, I'm gonna still give it to Paul Skeens and his 114 innings on a last place team."
37:26
But all that said, Skeens is really good.
37:29
And you know, like I've, I've said the last couple shows, there's nothing to prevent you making money betting on Skeens, on Skeens' props down the stretch, which I've still been doing.
37:38
So all things considered, where I'm at right now, just in case you, you're really wondering, um, Chris Sale, most strikeouts, 100 to 1. He's got four starts left. Seas has four starts left.
37:49
Cole Ragans and Tarik Skubal might both have five starts left, depending on what they do on the last day of the season.
37:56
Um, that bet's worth about twice what the whole Jackson Merrill position is, and it's a big position, so I mean, I'm, I, I got some really big positions coming down the stretch that, that I'm concerned about.
38:07
But, uh, Merrill is, is the second of my concern at the moment. You're not a, uh, one sport guy.
38:12
You wrote a great piece at VSiN.com, your thoughts on every single, I think it's every single, maybe not every single, but most of the NFL awards markets. I wanna just highlight a couple here.
38:21
Could you talk about your, uh, your thoughts and your pick on, for Offensive Rookie of the Year in the National Football League? Yeah. Blake Corum, what is he, like, 60 to 1 or something big? Yeah.
38:30
Um, he might be the Rams' starting running back. I mean, it's not, not like he has a ton of competition, and then there's that whole thing where the Rams said Kyren Williams is gonna return punts.
38:39
So you have to assume that they're gonna, they're gonna make Corum a big part of that offense. And I, I like the Rams' offensive line. Um, I like what the Rams have done just in terms of, of retooling year over year.
38:51
I think, I think they're gonna be good this year. I think they're a potential playoff team, and I think if they are, Corum's gonna play a big part of that. How about most rushing touchdowns? Let's go to a prop market.
39:01
Most rushing touchdowns this season. My, uh, my favorite player, Taysom Hill. Is that Taysom, right? Yeah. Taysom. Um. Yeah, sure. Yeah, Taysom. Uh, 250 to 1.
39:13
You know, I think it's, it's, it's the definition of a really, really long long shot. But, uh, you know, if you read the stuff they're writing about Taysom Hill this year, he's, he's a very athletic guy.
39:27
Like, he doesn't get credit for how athletic he is, um, how strong he is. One of the articles I was reading was talking about that he, he bench... or not bench presses. Uh, he squats 685 pounds.
39:39
That sounds like a goal line running back to me. Um, there's not a lot of competition on that team outside of, like, Chris Olave and what, Alvin Kamara, for touches.
39:48
So you know, I think there's some crazy situations where you see, uh, you know, Hill get a lot of goal line work, a lot of red zone work, and he touches the ball a lot. He had a career high in touches last year.
39:58
Um, if he improves on that this year, he could be a weapon. He, he reminds me... I wanted in the article, I think I said it's not fair to compare anybody to Shohei Ohtani.
40:08
Like, you just can't make that comparison and say, "Oh, this guy reminds me of Shohei Ohtani." He reminds me of a, a 1961 Paul Hornung- [laughs]... who, who won MVP. Yeah.
40:17
Yeah, that's a little bit of a, a deep reference for people. But, uh, the only difference with Paul Hornung, he was also the placekicker for the '61 Packers.
40:24
He won't be, he won't be, uh, kicking extra points or anything, but Hill will be involved in the offense in, in about 100 different ways. Taysom Hill added, uh, to the depth chart officially yesterday as a tight end.
40:36
So that's where they're listing him, Saints, but we've seen how they've treated him before. I think it's, I think they're interesting bets, Jason. I know you're looking at them in other markets too, but it's...
40:44
I, I mean, if you saw that Saints offense last year, and Derek Carr I think clearly has some limitations. There's limited weapons around him.
40:51
Yeah, I, I, sure, util- utilize him, especially when Jameis isn't sitting on the sideline anymore, you know? You don't have the obvious guy to bring in. I like it.
40:58
The, uh, the other way, you know, the other one, the other market I should say, that you're just absolutely not taking a long shot flyer on is, is NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
41:07
You are resigned to the fact that this is Aaron Rodgers to lose. I mean, I, I think it's just better off if I, if I don't bet this market anymore. [laughs] Yeah. Me too. [laughs] Yes.
41:19
But who, who, who do you make a case for outside of Aaron Rodgers? Aaron Rodgers, you know, tears his ACL or whatever, whatever, Achilles, um, first, first snap of the season and comes back.
41:29
Who else is it gonna be this award s- Well, it's the two quarterbacks, right? It shouldn't even, it shouldn't even, shouldn't even be betting on this anymore. I'm, I'm, I'm still slightly annoyed.
41:37
Talking about J- We move on. [laughs] Talking about the fact that Ja'Marr Hamlin did not win it last year- Yeah... is what Jason's referring to.
41:41
And then one more also, not quite as long of a shot as, uh, Taysom Hill for most rushing touchdowns, but you do have a really big long shot for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
41:52
I do, but I, I have to, uh, give a little, uh, little caveat here. Uh, as soon as I bet this, this was up at DraftKings at 200 to one,
42:02
I realized that the definition of a rookie means a player that hasn't signed a previous professional contract, and Kwontese Stigers- Oh... uh, signed a professional contract with the C- in the CFL.
42:15
So I have to go and check if he's actually eligible. I, I do like Stigers. I think his, his path to the NFL is extraordinary.
42:24
Anytime, anytime you find a guy at a premium position like cornerback who didn't play college football, like he must be really talented because NFL teams don't give out, you know, uh, roster spots to guys who, who never played college football.
42:38
But his path was through the Fan Controlled Football League to the CFL, where he won Most Outstanding Rookie last year, and now he's on the Jets roster.
42:47
I think there's just a ton of potential there, but as soon as I wrote this and, and bet this at DraftKings, I realized that I'm probably gonna get this bet voided 'cause I don't think he's a rookie. All right.
42:58
Uh, check out Jason's article at vsan.com. He's got more thoughts. Coach of the Year is in there as well. Um, but we'll let you go to the website to check that out.
43:06
I almost got through the whole segment without mentioning the, uh, tank top. I couldn't go any longer without mentioning the tank top, but the tank top is there. Uh, and you have no art, no art on the wall.
43:14
You have an art display at a museum. Is that right?
43:18
Yeah, the, the paintings that are normally behind me on the wall, if you've seen them the last couple times, they're, uh, they're, they're going on display this weekend at the Orange County Center for Contemporary Art, um, in Santa Ana.
43:29
They're, they're gonna be on display for the next month. Uh, five, five paintings from my art collection will be on a- Nice... on a exhibit called Painting in Real Time.
43:38
So I'm excited to go to the opening this weekend and see my- Jason, if you want to find out more about that, check out or contact Jason at Spreadapedia. Nice job.
43:45
A renaissance man, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. One more bet. I took Colorado this week on plus seven. Oh.
43:53
I, I still think they're frauds, but I s- I think they're gonna cover the seven here, so I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth. Okay. [laughs] Okay, thank you. Snuck that in as well. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it.
44:03
Um- Pleasure. Talk to you guys later. Don't forget, Stormy Bonatony on the other side here after Numbers Game, Money Moves. Uh, she's got Samich on there today with her, I believe. I'm not sure.
44:12
But Stormy will, uh, have her co-host there with her. Uh, Jeff Schwartz part of that on Mondays and Fridays. That's next. Stanford Steve from ESPN. She's gonna, he's gonna be on the show today on Money Moves.
44:23
Sharp Money after that, starting at 2:00 PM Eastern, and then of course Mitch and Pauley on Follow the Money starting at 4:00 PM. Let's go, Muhova. Let's go, DeMynor. Enjoy from VSAN, the Sports Betting Network.
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