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Sep 4, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 4, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 4, 2026 | Hour 1
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45:20
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Transcript
0:00
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Take the guesswork out of buying sports tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app and create an account to start searching for tickets to upcoming games and events. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story.
0:32
They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:40
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 189. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. What up? Good morning. What up?
0:53
Not a mucho, man. We, uh, we get in studio and we see already a spread in question. [exhales] The, uh, the WNBA on hiatus. That's right. For the, uh, the FIBA Women's World Cup.
1:07
Group D game between the United States of America and China. The US wins it by 33, 94 to 61. How about that? Man. The spread was 33 and a half. Yeah. China's, uh, China's w- they call her the, uh, the female...
1:25
Was that, was that her out at the line at the end? The female Yao Ming? Yeah, I don't know if they call her that, but that's what, uh- Zhang Zhu... us in the crew- Zhang Zhu... quickly started calling her this morning.
1:34
Uh, seven foot three inches tall. God, that's really, that's what she's listed at? She's not listed. I mean she- She is... she looked very tall out there. Uh, seven foot three.
1:43
She stepped to the line, China down 35 with just under, with just over one second left. [laughs] She hits them both, and if you had China plus the points, you're a winner. Oh, man.
1:55
Let me see if I can fit, uh, what was- Well- There's two thi- well, first of all- Little-... spread 33 and a half. Let me see if I can fit two, uh, betting cl- cliches in, in one sentence.
2:03
First of all, the spread was 33 and a half. How did they know? How did they know? Right? That's the first one. [laughs] And the other one is- Vegas, man. Vegas. [laughs] How do they know?
2:11
And the other one is, uh, clearly she had money on the game. Yeah, clear. [laughs] That's the other one. Oh, man. We win by 33. Sorry you didn't get the money though if you laid, laid the points.
2:20
I'll, I'll add another one. Always get the best of the number. That's right. I, I don't really know if 33s or 32 and a halves were available, but always get the best of the number. Oh, man.
2:28
Poor Chris Foster losing by the hook on a 33 and a half spread. Did he really? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. But don't worry, w- he covered the first half. He covered it in the first half. USA covers there.
2:36
[laughs] On the show today, Paul Carr will join us, Premier League three pack. Is he gonna f- is he gonna do this thing where he fades Hull City every week? I hope so. He's O and two in that department.
2:49
Uh, Christopher Felica, the Bear, college football and more from Fox Sports. Are we sure? Estamos seguros? A little later on the show Kelly's got some, uh, questions to ask. Are we sure about?
3:00
And, uh, a little country clubbing, US Open, Futures. I have some tennis bets coming up here momentarily, and of course it's Friday. You know what that means. Fezzik Fridays.
3:09
The only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest, Steve Fezzik, who I have been accused of multiple times in the last couple weeks of being too hard on. Listen- Um-... I spar with the dude.
3:20
He says some things that are just outlandish. I mean, yeah. You gotta give it to him. Does he deserve most of it? Yeah, prob- probably. Yeah, of course he does. Yeah.
3:27
But we, uh, we, we, we've beat up Steve a fair amount the past few weeks. Absolutely. By we you mean me. I relish it. He has lots to talk about though later on the show.
3:39
Some, some, you know, some- sometimes he runs into them. Mm. Good points. Oh, yes, he does. Yeah. He absolutely does. Oh, boy, I spot a, I spot a Gil tennis bet there. I didn't see these this morning. Oh.
3:48
I see one I am tail- auto-tailing you on. Kelly's great at cherry picking. Yesterday one and one, two dogs. Again, a little small little tick. The disaster day was two days ago. That was not fun. Yeah.
3:59
Uh, today two more dogs. One on the men's side, one on the ladies' side at the US Open, which we go into the third round today of the US Open. Third round today, third round tomorrow. Round of 16 starts on Sunday.
4:11
Third round today on the men's side, Alexandr Bublik plus 148 versus the American Tommy Paul. Bublik and Paul had a great match here last year, which Bublik won.
4:22
Bublik's not having quite the same year he had last year, but I've got Bublik on the number at plus 148 against Tommy Paul. And then on the ladies' side, Taylor Townsend, let's go, plus 144 versus Diana Shnaider.
4:34
So Bublik and Townsend, your two tennis plays of the day.
4:37
Sasha Zverev, the men's number one seed, in quotes, really it should be Carlitos, but, uh, Sasha Zverev with a second straight five setter deep into the night- Yeah... against, uh, Bautista Agut last night.
4:51
He is logging too much time on the tennis courts. That is not a portent of good things to come for Sasha. Yeah. That's- I was, uh, caught that. Taylor Townsend, this big a price? Come on. I'm, I'm in. Come on.
5:03
Have some respect. Absolutely. Have some respect for Taylor. Oh, that's the one you're doing? Yeah. Oh, I would have figured you'd go the other way. Okay. Really? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
5:07
Well, but you're good at cherry picking. I am. Yeah. Bublik and Townsend are your tennis plays of the day. Uh, Blue Jays, um, our Blue Jays play looking pretty good.
5:14
Two and one here in the early going of, the very early going of September. Mm-hmm. But it is a short month. Remember, we're just three weeks and change now left.
5:22
Uh, most games played by any team in the whole month is 25. Blue Jays had 24. Blue Jays, uh, after losing the first day win their next two against the Guardians. One of those was a Dylan Cease game, and remember
5:34
that part of the, or a big part of the handicap on the Blue Jays was that it timed out beautifully for Cease, and a bet on the Blue Jays at plus 23, 25, 'cause Cease first start in the month was on September 2nd, so we're gonna get five starts out of him.
5:47
One down, looking good. Uh, Blue Jays right now in terms of the c- and I have the Blue Jays at, Blue Jays, by the way, are two and one should read, uh, on the screen there. Um- My bad... Kelly Bidlin.
6:00
You got one job, Kelly. Yeah. Transcription Uh, Blue Jays are two and ones, but they are in fourth place based on the circuit tiebreakers, which is where we have the Blue Jays or where I have them.
6:08
They would win the, uh, the two and one tiebreaker. So, uh, right now in fourth place, uh, behind the Yankees. Oh, just went off the screen. [laughs] Right. So just- Yankees, Reds, and Rockies Thank you.
6:19
Yankees, Reds, and Rockies. Later we will look at, we were g- you were very anxious to do this category later.
6:24
Uh, b- last undefeated in the month of September, and by the time the night was over, we only were left with three undefeateds after, after ye- last night. It looked a lot cooler yesterday- Yeah...
6:35
when there were six still remaining. I, I figured that we wouldn't have the full six that I was saying yesterday, but man, chopped down to three. Chopped down to three.
6:43
But, but then there's s- some of these teams run into each other, so it's actually kind of interesting. Still wanted to talk about it.
6:48
We'll look at theirs, their next six games on the schedule, 'cause there's only three, three teams: Yankees, Reds, Rockies. Mm-hmm. We'll see what the prices are a little later on in the show.
6:55
Uh, college football, yeah, week zero was kind of a dud to me, and I don't, I'm not buying into the people who are like, "Oh, North Carolina looked good." No, they didn't. TCU just was i- inaccurate quarterbacking.
7:05
Uh, absolutely o- like overall dud, 'cause I know where- Yeah... I know where you're going here. You and I had dinner last night, and then I was locked in when I got home. Yes.
7:13
It was a phenomenal, uh, night of college football. First of all, uh, if you had the Buffaloes, which a lot of recent hosts did. Mm. Colorado Buffaloes, uh, they score- Saw Semi was on them, yep... they score late,
7:24
they score late to go ahead of Georgia Tech. Then Georgia Tech has a, uh, a field goal opportunity to win it, blocked. Colorado wins it outright. It wa- A lot, a lot of folks had Colorado plus the points.
7:35
Awesome play by Colorado, the old out and then up. Perfect pass. Yeah. Great catch, great touchdown, and then it's, oh man, if you're on the Georgia Tech side, just the...
7:46
I mean, the, the guy, L- like we have the over- Quick matriculation. Yeah... quick, yeah, quick matriculation. You have the, the graphic overlay of the field goal d- uh, distance one. Yeah.
7:55
I k- I know, I know someone grabbed him by the, by the shoelaces and he got tripped. He, it, it looked like on TV that he hit that green line and just went toppling over.
8:03
Like it was, he was one little arm tackle away from housing that- Mm-hmm... and y- would've covered if he were on the other side. Tough, tough week one beginning. If you had- Or great. Yeah. Yeah.
8:15
The, of course, the, the biggest thing last night though was Rutgers- Oof... going down to UMass, and by going down, I mean losing to UMass, and they do so, uh, as a m- as a massive favorite in this ballgame.
8:31
Uh, UMass snapping a 16 game losing streak, scored its biggest upset school history. They blast Rutgers. It was not competitive. 37 to 21 in the season opener, and that was in Piscataway, by the way.
8:42
Minutemen were 29 and a half point dogs, but completely overpowered [laughs] Big Ten school in every phase. It marked just the program's second win against a current Power Four program, first coming against BYU in 2018.
8:55
But BYU at that time was independent. UMass was just a four-point dog back then. The last time UMass actually beat a true major conference team, 1978 against Boston College. That's crazy.
9:08
So you take your 29 and a half point spread, like this comes down to part, part of the conversation I had with Wishnev earlier in the week, and then with Mike Reardon from Razz yesterday, which is, did anybody know anything- Mm...
9:18
before the season starts with these spreads? Now according to On The Banks, [laughs] Rutgers also, right, for the privilege of getting a patsy supposedly in UMass, they paid UMass- Oh, yeah...
9:29
$1.55 million to come over and play them. So- So you get your money and the win. Can I, can we talk about that part for a sec?
9:36
'Cause this is another one where it's, it's UMass, like, okay, just like everybody else, switching out a bunch of players, right?
9:46
Like, I don't, I don't know that I'm running to pay these cupcake schools that you think you're gonna go get an easy week one win against when all these- It's a different, it's a different era... rosters turn over.
9:57
It's a different team every year. Yeah. Like, they might look like a soft team four years out when you're making these contracts, but- Now you might, you might... That's a great point.
10:05
It's an absolutely great point, Kelly.
10:06
You, uh, and, and you might be wondering, the 29 and a half point spread, where does that, or you know, 29 and a half point spread winning outright, where does that rank in the annals of college football history?
10:16
Well, it's not even a top tenner. The- I, yeah... the top three, by the way, of all time, I can remember one and two. I have no recollection of three.
10:22
Number one, of course, when Visin first started, I'm not sure if y- this might be, might have been right when you got there- For me, yeah... Kelly. It was late, uh, it was obviously the fall of 2017.
10:32
Remember UNLV was a 45 and a half point favorite against Howard, and I remember all the UNLV fans clutching their pearls. Yeah. [laughs] I was going crazy for Howard. Howard. [laughs] Howard won it 43 to 40.
10:43
Kalen Newton was your Bison quarterback that day. That's the biggest upset outright n- in, uh, college football history. Number two was very memorable. Jim Harbaugh in his first year at Stanford, um,
10:55
Tavita Pritchard, now the Stanford head coach, was the quarterback. They broke USC's 35 win g- 35 game winning, uh, home streak. Yep... home, home winning streak. Okay. Remember that one.
11:06
Uh, it was a 40 and a half point spread in that game, and Stanford won it 24 to 23. That was in 2007. Yep. Those are two very memorable ones. Number three, I don't remember at all.
11:15
Syracuse beat Louisville as a 37 point dog, also in 2007, 38 to 35. I don't remember that one as much. Um, me neither. Um, and then you're just sort of, you're sort of thinking what were some of the...
11:28
W- w- last year, remember Vandy, some people might be like, "What was Vandy last year when they beat Alabama?" They were only a 23 and a half point dog. Okay. Vandy beat Bama 40 to 35 last year.
11:39
Um, 'cause remember Vandy was previously 0 and 60 against top five opponents when they won that. But really, you, you take all of those games, and if you think what's the b- what's the most significant
11:49
upset in college football history, most people would still say App State beating Ap- I was waiting for you to get there. Yeah... Appalachian, Appalachian State beating Michigan.
11:56
[upbeat music] They were the n- that's the ninth biggest upset, outright upset in the history of college football. It was a f- it was a t- uh, 33 point spread in favor [laughs] of the Wolverines.
12:07
Uh, App State won it 34-32, remember, punctuated by the legendary blocked field goal. Um, but again, the first time an FCS team defeated a ranked FBS opponent.
12:17
So that's probably still cream of the crop and the crop of the cream. Coming back[upbeat music]
12:33
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Football is back. Kelly, are you aware our VSiN NFL betting guide is out? What? Yeah, no, true. VSiN Pro gives you everything you need to bet smarter this season.
12:44
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12:54
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13:01
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13:12
You got that? Mm-hmm. Or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. I was very proud of, uh, Kelly yesterday because, uh,
13:23
he finally, uh, discovered the guy that I, I sometimes accuse him of sounding like. [laughs] When you say no to me sometimes- No.
13:32
Sometimes you say it that way, and I-- a couple times I've said to you, "You're just like that guy, like, on Instagram or TikTok or whatever." He's got videos everywhere, viral.
13:39
It- there's a guy on, on social media who- Yeah, Gil did say this, and I, it didn't- You, you had no- It didn't connect w- like, whatever you were talking about, I didn't get what you were talking about, but yes, you were right.
13:49
You nailed it. I'm tr- trying to explain what the video's-- they're, they're sort of-- he points out the illogical of sports things that we take for granted. Yeah.
13:56
So the most recent one is, "So here's a score in tennis, 15-15." Uh, or he says, "What's this score?" He, uh, the, the person says, it was- Mm... Chris Eubanks, uh, the actual former tennis player, now on ESPN.
14:07
Goes, "15-15." "What's this one?" "Uh, 30-30." A- and he goes, "What's this one?" So, so every score clearly goes up by 15. Yeah. Yeah. And Chris Eubanks goes, "40-40." He goes, "No." [laughs] That's right.
14:17
It's- I gave you the face, though, too. It's- 'Cause the face is like you're an idiot, but the voice is different. No. Basically, obviously that's deuce, right? And he does this for any number of sports things.
14:27
[laughs] It's so great. And Kelly, sometimes he'll throw out the no. Yeah, that's me. So now I have a feeling, like, every time you wanna be- Yeah, I'm gonna be leaning into it now. Yes. 100%.
14:33
Yeah, it's gonna get real annoying probably. What do you think the chances of, of us being able to get it-- w- how hard would it be to track down-- well, no, you just d- you just make a comment.
14:42
That guy you want me to get him on? Oh, that'd be fantastic. That guy'll come on in a second. Yeah, this is, like, uh- Not since the Jardiance girl- Yes...
14:48
will we have had a social-- well, actually, just a, a rando guest like that. Uh, De- De- Deanna? Was that her name? Is that her name? Deanna? Oh, boy, I feel bad for forgetting already.
14:59
Deanna was Todd's girl on, uh, Action. She, she did a great job with us, too. Yeah. She was great. Rob L. on Twitter, "Boy, have I been missing Estamos Seguros. Here's one for you.
15:07
Are we sure on X tweeted is actually the past tense of tweet? I'm not. The only thing I'm sure of is that my wife doesn't like how I conjugate that verb." It's gotta be tweeted, right? He tweeted.
15:18
Yeah, of course it's tweeted. Yeah. What else would it be? [laughs] I only want-- don't say it. [laughs] I don't wanna-- no, actually, forget that question. Strike that question.
15:24
[laughs] Uh, Jason Lewis, "West Virginia blowing a shot to play in the Natty as a 29-and-a-half-point favorite over Pitt in 2007 may be the most meaningful choke job." You know what? That, that's a great call, too.
15:35
That one is very memorable. Well, you see, like, do you think that first tweet was just really clever, trying to lead us into saying something? Uh, maybe. Is that, is that what you picked up on, too? Uh, maybe.
15:43
Okay, yeah. Okay, yeah. Thomas O'Toole, quote, "I bet you had money on the match," unquote. "I know Kelly had a little money on the game. He's tailing Uncle Gil through this US Open forest. Man has the map."
15:53
Yeah, Kelly's doing a great job. Kelly's doing better on the US Open than I am by just cherry-picking the right ones. Yeah, I'm just, I'm, like, break even.
16:00
No, I had a-- the, the day you had a bloodbath, I had a bloodbath. Well, yes. The, the Hod- the Hodar one coulda saved me, but no. I, I-- let me just lean into that match- Yeah... again one more time. Please.
16:10
The fact- As much as you want... the fact that you, Bonciuc I believe you pronounce it- Wow... that you, we'll just call him you, the fact that you- Boo... beat him, okay, upsets happen. Mm-hmm.
16:21
The fact that he beat him in straight sets, you gotta be kidding me. Right. The fact that he beat him, like, was it one, one, two? Six-two, six-one, six-two? Yeah, something like that, yeah.
16:30
Like, beat two breadsticks and two-- I, I don't know what it was.
16:33
It's just this shows you the perils of betting an individual sport, 'cause you just have no idea how that person woke up that day or what's, what's going on with them. And Rafa Hodar said, uh, "I wasn't hurt."
16:46
When does, when does Boo play next? "I wasn't hurt." Boo is a beast. Boo should be today, I think, right? Does Boo have a match today? It's either today or tomorrow. Mm.
16:54
Uh, Shrek McPhee, "Unsure if this has been talked about. I've been away. Any chance the Australia trip is so bad for the NFL that they go away-- that they, uh, go away with it?"
17:02
I mean, they do-- oh, yeah, I think he means do away with it. "What would need to happen for the international stuff to go away? Seems there's nobody but the owners and Goodell who want this, LOL."
17:11
Well, you know, Shrek, you are right. There's nobody, [laughs] seems like, but the owners and Goodell who want this, but guess what? It's all that matters. Right. Roger- There's that tackle. Look at Julius- Oh...
17:21
Jones is just like-- it easily could've been a touchdown for Georgia Tech. Sorry. We gotta keep it young here. Here's the, here's the 45-yard field goal attempt. Wow, that was such an easy block, too.
17:29
They were, like, right in his face. I know, right? Yeah. The, um- Um- Okay, it's a great question, but the-- here's the problem, Gil, and you know I get a- as angry about this as anyone.
17:37
D- do we remember a year ago when we sent the Philadelphia Eagles and, and Green Bay Packers right down to Brazil, and they were ter- they were complaining about the field the whole time? Yeah.
17:48
I mean, if these play- if these players went-- like, I take that seriously. I don't know about everybody.
17:52
I hate when we hear these players complain about fields as much as they do, and, like, they think it's dangerous, and we do nothing about it. Like, why are we not listening to the guys that play on these things?
18:01
Well, I, I understand als- And that extends to, like, the Meadowlands too, right? Like, when I hit you. [laughs] Well, Australia is a whole different level. It really is.
18:09
Anything with that kind of time zone difference is a whole different level, and, uh, the point-- ugh, just to answer the question again, it's not going away. Yeah.
18:17
Not only, not only is it not going away, Roger Goodell is, is obsessed- Right... with the idea of having franchises [laughs] in Europe. I don't know about Australia, but in Europe.
18:26
And if you think about the scheduling of that, this is sort of like when the, uh- When the New- when the Brooklyn Dodgers were going to LA in the 1950s- Hmm...
18:35
the only way that they could make it happen was to convince the New York Giants to go to California too, which they did, and became the San Francisco Giants. As long as you had two teams going- Right...
18:45
you could sort of get away with it, like, okay, well, they can all fly out here, you know, as far out as we are. You can play both teams, that kind of thing.
18:52
This would be, could you imagine, so the, the cross-Atlantic, the transatlantic travel of forget going that way, those teams doing their, like, extended road trips in the US. It's just, it just- Oh, it's crazy...
19:06
it's gonna be some massive- I think we, I, I don't, do you really think we see that ever in the NFL? I don't know if we ever see that. May- it's, like, one of those things, uh- The NBA, though, I think we do.
19:15
It br- it, you think it, it reminds me of, uh, what you just said reminds me of when I was a kid and they said, "Oh, we, uh, kids, we'll be at the metric, we'll have the metric system very soon.
19:25
You won't be saying 100 yards." [laughs] Everything in this country will be in the metric system. Um, yeah, never happened. No, never, never quite worked out. DraftKings and FanDuel will be in Nevada any d- And, yeah...
19:34
and what do you, when do you think that will happen? And d- Yeah, it's not happening... Gill, they got offices here. [laughs] They've got an office down the road. And last one, Mark Gilbert, uh, "Awesome.
19:42
What day is Bob on next week? I'll go listen to Crack from yesterday." Oh, he's, he was asking for Crack and Bob. Uh, Crack was, is always Thursdays. Bob will start, Dr.
19:50
Bob we're talking about, will start with NFL plays next Friday on the show. Okay? All right. There you go. Uh, let's look at the wild card races real quick. Major League Baseball.
20:01
Right now, again, three and, three weeks and change, right? Three weeks and one weekend left of the Major League Baseball season. That's it of the Major League Baseball regular season.
20:11
American League, Yankees inhabit the number one wild card position. They're three back of the Rays. They're good. Red Sox inhabit the number two position. They're very cu- they're very cushioned in their position.
20:23
Probably not gonna win the division, but look, their minus 10,000 to make the playoffs.
20:29
They have a f- they have a six-game lead over the teams that are outside, on the outside looking in, and I expect the Red Sox to have a good month. Guardians right now, here's where it gets interesting. They're in third.
20:39
They, they've got the third wild card position. They are 70 and 70. Need them to lose a few more games for our under on 79 and a half. Let's, let's do the job, Guardians. Enough of this 500 stuff.
20:49
Rangers and Blue Jays are both a half-game back. You know how I feel about the Blue Jays this month? I think the Blue Jays are getting that playoff position.
20:57
And by the way, you get to game seven of the World Series, maybe it's poetic that you do get into the playoffs again this year. You shouldn't be shut out. Yeah. I'd like to see them back in.
21:03
But I think the s- I think the schedule, as we've a- we talked about already, I think it favors the Blue Jays here. But the Rangers, who we need an over on at 83 and a half, they got work to do as well.
21:13
The Orioles are just m- you know, puddle, piddling along, a game and a half out of this. It feels like it's 10 games. They just can't seem to get over the hump. They're a game and a half out.
21:25
This is well within reach for them, and oh, by the way, the Twinkies, same story as the Orioles. They're three out of the final playoff position in the American League. They're 11 to 1 to make it.
21:35
I couldn't make that bet, though. The question is, I, the Blue Jays at plus 170 to make the playoffs, I would make that bet. But, uh, the Orioles at six to one, the Twins at 11 to one, uh.
21:46
You taught me in the Orioles before you could the Twins.
21:48
And, and by the way, the Mariners who are four and a half out of the final playoff position, of course, they have designs on the division as well, but in terms of the wild card race, they're four and a half out.
21:57
They're plus 650 to make the playoffs. Remember, they have two ways to make the playoffs. Yeah. But I am tired of the Mariners talk. They're 66 and 75.
22:06
Maybe they're just not that good at baseball- I was just gonna ask... with 21 games left. Can we just finally agree to that?
22:11
Yeah, it has been a roller coaster, I don't even wanna say season for the Mariners, just dis- of discuss- talk around the Mariners. Oh. Like, "Oh, here they come." Oh, people want to list- "Oh, no, they suck"...
22:21
Will had- "Oh, here they come." I think I shared it with Joe Sheehan when he was on. Will had the best line. He's like, "How, how," You know, the Mariners supposedly have all these great pitchers.
22:28
Why do they suck so bad then? [laughs] That was great. That was great. [laughs] That's such a great call. Also real quick, I don't know, I, I guess I'm just putting this all together.
22:35
My God, the rest of the American, like the AL East, every single one of these teams is in this playoff conversation, and it's September 4th. Rest of the American League, not so much.
22:44
I do think the plus 170 on the Blue Jays is the best bet there. NL wild card race is much clearer. Um, right now it's really a race. The, the only, the third one, same sort of story in the American League.
22:55
Really only the third one is up for grabs 'cause the Phillies and Cubs are entrenched- Mm-hmm... at one and two. Um, they have designs on divisions, too.
23:01
I don't know if they'll get there, but they're entrenched in the wild card race.
23:04
It's really the Diamondbacks with a half-game lead over the Padres, and it's kind of mano a mano, 'cause I really don't believe in the Marlins, Cardinals, and Pirates- Yeah... who are three, four, and five back.
23:13
But there's no bet there 'cause it's really a coin flip between the Diamondbacks and the Padres. Fun, though, with just over three weeks left in the regular season. Oh, show. Let's come back.
23:24
Let's talk with Paul Carr next. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Downtown.
23:42
It's Gill Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. You know, uh, producer in training, Drew "Cornbread" Maxwell, after our first segment, he immediately got in our H, "Oh, great, great stuff. Great stuff."
23:52
After the second segment, we heard nothing. So- Yeah... I don't know. I don't know how the second segment went based on Drew's, uh- Interesting... audio rating system. Well, we'll see what he says after the show.
24:03
That's right. [laughs] So we always get- That's right. Be scolded by, [laughs] by Drew. That's right. Yeah, may see. He's been positive so far- He's gonna be mad... this whole week. We'll see.
24:11
Uh, Chris Heath on Twitter, "Should I tear up my Colorado under four and a half season wins ticket?" Eh, I wouldn't yet. Do you think anybody, by the way, physically tears up their tickets when they lose?
24:21
That thing where, you know, like a, a central ca- you know, a movie would sh- depict it that way. Do you think anybody actually tears it? Uh, I, I mean, I've done it multiple times. Okay.
24:29
But, but- Like when it's definitely lost already. There's a difference between when we, when we like to say, "Oh, should I tear, should I tear up the ticket?" Yeah.
24:38
Or may- just tuck it away in that d- that desk drawer where you've got all those other tickets that you're hoping, uh, find a pulse one day. Here's what you should do. Mark it down as a loser in your spreadsheet- M-...
24:47
then it has a chance. There you go. Uh, Edward Lefevre. "All this tennis talk, yet no love for Paula Badosa." Oh, it's a Paula Badosa tweet from Edward Lefevre. He loves her. "I think she has turned the corner.
24:59
Next year." Okay, we'll go with next year. She was once the number two player in the world, by the way, Paula. Shooter McGambolin, "I don't understand what Goodell's best case scenario is with these international games.
25:08
Get a team in London, join the AFC East?" Bro, can I call you bro? I'm with you. I have no idea how this w- how this is in any way viable. No, it's just, it's money, money, money.
25:21
They just think they can get more, if they can get more people in Germany and Italy watching the National Football League, it's just gonna take over the world like it's taken over America.
25:29
Football though is y- all, let's forget the fact that it's 53 dudes on the roster, which is unlike any other sport, but it's all the equipment and it just- Yes... what a balagan. Yes.
25:39
It's a bizarro sport to the rest of the world. William Rosacrans, "Imagine the possibility of the Tottenham Jaguars traveling to LA in December where they could be competing for a playoff berth and/or seeding position."
25:49
[laughs] I know, man. It's like, this is a big one for Tottenham. [snorts] Here at SoFi. Tim Pow- uh, Tim Bowers, "I'm not gonna give Paul Carr too much crap about Hull City.
26:00
If I remember correctly, he's a Dolphins fan." That is correct. Oh, big but coming. But- And, and they will need all the good vibes they can this year. There's no but. Oh, no but. Okay. No but. All right.
26:08
Paul Carr, what a coincidence, joins us now courtesy of the Progressive- Oh, hi... guest line. Oh, hi. [laughs] Uh, you, [laughs] you can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr. He is the emperor of True Media Networks.
26:18
By the way, the reason I, I go with a title like that is because whenever the True Media Networks things come on, I'm blocked by the camera- Oh, okay... tripod. That's a good excuse then. So I just go with Emperor. Yeah.
26:27
Paul Carr joins us now. It's all right. How you doing, Paulie? Oh, I'm good. I'll take it. I'm gonna update my business card and go with that. Emperor, uh, we're not- Yeah... fading Hull City again this week, are we?
26:37
Man, I really wanted to, but it, they're playing Aston Villa, who's been really bad too in their first couple games. I picked them for bottom half, even though they were a Champions League team last year.
26:47
And through two games, small sample size, but they're looking like they're well on their way there. So yeah, I did not end up g- fading Hull City, but I will. Don't worry. I'll come back.
26:55
Does your surprise reflect the general Premier League fan base or experts'- Yeah... surprise as well in, in these first two games? Yeah, I think we talked about it.
27:05
They were minus 650 or, or shorter to be relegated before the season, and they're still, I think, the favorite or they might be second favorite now. Check it. Um, a little bit of plus money last I saw.
27:14
So yeah, and it's not like they've been dominant either, you know? Two goals against Manchester United were both on set pieces.
27:22
Uh, were outplayed by Coventry most of the game last week before they got a late goal on the counterattack.
27:27
So, you know, they're defending and countering reasonably well, but nothing in the underlying numbers from two games suggests that this is super sustainable.
27:35
But if you pile up points early, you know, this is what Sunderland did last year, they were super hot early, ended up, I think, seventh in the league. So you pile up points early, you can be safe.
27:44
Uh, Paul, by the way, is the senior director... Oh, I just took it down from the screen. Senior Director of Media, what was it? And what? Did I see it right before? Yeah, business operations or something.
27:52
Oh, there it is. Senior Director of Media and Business Operations at True Media Network. Uh, okay. Minus 230 to be relegated, by the way, right now. Minus 230. Yeah. Gosh, okay. No, sorry. I was way off.
28:00
Well, let me ask the opposite question, and I'm not suggesting Hull City is gonna win the Prem. Right. But just for historical context- Uh-oh... Leicester City won it at 5,000 to 1.
28:08
Do you remember what Hull City was- Ooh... pre-flop? I didn't s- check it. I'd be surprised if they were that long. I would too. Just because- I, I bet they, I bet they banned doing that, right, again. It, it really is.
28:18
Yeah. It's the Leicester City rule where- Yeah... like 1,000 to 1 is usually as long as you can find. I bet we can... I'll look into it. They are- We can come back to that probably... currently 2,000 to 1 at DraftKings.
28:27
Oh, maybe they were. Okay. I mean- Maybe they were then... it could've been. I mean, if anybody was, it was them. But generally, all the books cut the longest odds shorter because of that Leicester City thing.
28:36
And if somebody has a Hull City to win the Prem pre-flop ticket, or even current- All right. Let, let's see it... I, well, pre-flop. I wanna see the pre-flop. Forget about current. Right. I wanna see the pre-flop. Yeah.
28:44
Yeah. Maybe 3,000? I don't know. All right, so how- I mean, even, even like top four, top half would be pretty wild. How are you playing Hull City and Aston Villa tomorrow?
28:54
So, 'cause I don't like any, either one of these teams, and I don't think either one's very good at attacking, I'm just taking the under here, under two and a half minus 110.
29:01
Uh, these two teams have combined for 27 shots through two games each, which is about half of league average for a team. So 14 for Hull, 13 for Villa, or maybe it's the other way around.
29:12
But the teams are averaging about 27 shots through two games. Manchester United has 54 shots by themselves, so double both these teams. Ooh. So neither one's very offensive. We've talked about Hull.
29:22
They wanna defend and try to steal something on a set piece or a counter. Aston Villa lost their top two scorers from last year, uh, Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers.
29:29
They haven't really figured out a way to replace either one yet. They played Arsenal, who's obviously the best defensive team probably in the world. Uh, lost to Brighton as well.
29:38
Brighton, you know, a solid top six-ish type of team. So no necessarily shame in those losses, but Villa just did not look very good.
29:46
So I think both teams will be ecstatic to sneak a one-nil win out of this game, so under two and a half minus 110. Under two and a half. Did you just, let's, truth serum.
29:55
Did you consider, you, you consider taking Hull City here? You thought about it, yeah? Uh, no. I did not, no. Never thought of it. I almost took Aston Villa.
30:02
Oh, no, no, I mean, I mean fading Hull City by, by my- Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. I almost took Villa. I was, I was ready to do that, and then I was just like, man, Villa's just been really bad.
30:09
If it had been almost any other team outside of those newly promoted ones, I probably would've done it. But we'll just take the under here, and, uh, we'll watch Villa win, like four-nil or something ridiculous.
30:18
I was just gonna, I was, I was just about to say that same thing. All right. [laughs] Also, also tomorrow, uh, Brighton and Leeds, you have a play in Brighton and Leeds game.
30:26
Yeah, here's where I'll take the better team pick of the day. Uh, Brighton's thrashed Aston Villa 4-0, mentioned.
30:31
Uh, they lost 4-3 to Chelsea last week, while Leeds, uh, got a 1-0 win over Forest in the first week, and then drew Brentford, uh, pretty good 1-1 game last week.
30:39
Uh, Leeds has been really bad on the road the last couple seasons. I mean, there's always a split for teams, like just about any sport. Uh, their's a little bit worse. You know, they have more possession at home.
30:48
They outshoot opponents by three at home. But on the road, again, worse possession, get outshot. Uh, and Brighton's just a, a good, good solid team.
30:56
They're battling a lot of injuries, but they, there's this Brighton way that they kind of plug in the next guy, and he's m- able to do stuff. Uh, Leeds has a defender out.
31:04
So I think Brighton should just control this game, and you get plus money or even money. I got a, a plus 100 for them to win. I like that on a significantly better team at home. All right.
31:13
And as far as marquee match-ups go this early in a season, I guess Arsenal and Chelsea qualifies on Sunday? Big one.
31:19
Probably the two teams that have looked the best in some ways, you know, give or take a Manchester City. Uh, I'm going over here, which is a little, uh, you know, may make you throw up in your mouth for an Arsenal game.
31:30
But over two and a half at minus 125. Arsenal hasn't allowed a goal yet in two games. They're, have the fewest total shots, fewest expected goals.
31:37
Again, they love to get a goal and kind of grind the life out of the game. Uh, but Chelsea's two games were four to three and three to two, both wins.
31:44
So they're top five in the league in shots and expected goals, most goals so far. And just the way Chelsea's playing under their new manager, Xabi Alonso, has been a lot more chaotic, I think, than most of us expected.
31:56
Very open, which should give chances to both teams. Arsenal should have, you know, plenty of the ball and opportunities to do things.
32:02
Chelsea will love to, whether it's hit them on the counter or just use their big front three, that's been really good so far.
32:08
So I think we're gonna have goals here one way or the other like we have in the first two Chelsea games. So over two and a half, minus 125.
32:14
Uh, if Arsenal and Chelsea have looked the best thus far in the early part of this Prem season, who has looked the worst in your opinion? I mean, I think it's probably Aston Villa, really. I mean, again, two losses.
32:27
Not unexpected losses, but, um, just got torched by Brighton. And, you know, they were, they weren't that feisty against Arsenal. It's kind of hard to be, uh, that.
32:35
But I think they would probably be at the top of my list. Remind us who your golden boot play was, and how's that looking so far? Uh, Cole Palmer for Chelsea. He's got a goal in each game. There you go. So, you know.
32:44
Okay. I think the, stylistically it's playing out how I kind of hoped it would, where he's forward a lot more. Uh, it looks like he's healthy. Might've been battling injury last year.
32:52
So in this system, which, again, from new manager Ma- Xabi Alonso, looks different than we expected, but the end result has been similar.
33:00
The, he's getting forward, he's getting in the box, he's creating chances, he's taking shots. So yeah, at 40 to 1, I feel really good about that right now. I want to be the first to float this.
33:09
You are a Miami Dolphins fan, as was, uh- I am... not- noted in the tweet. Uh, famously, the Miami Dolphins, uh, pop wells. [laughs] Uh-oh. What was the old Chris Berman pop the cork champagne thing whenever the- Yeah...
33:21
final undefeated team since 1972, when the Dolphins went undefeated, won the Super Bowl, uh, beat the Skins in the Super Bowl 14 to seven that year.
33:29
The only undefeated team, the only undefeated team in the history of the NFL in the Super Bowl era, that is. I know where you're going. And so ever s- you know where I'm going. So ever since then- [laughs]...
33:37
they pop the champagne, or Mercury Morris would, or Larry Csonka, whoever. Yeah, yep. They'd come out and they'd celebrate it. If this team goes 0 and 17- Oh, gosh...
33:45
correct that we should never hear about that again, right? It negates it. Yeah. I mean, other teams have gone winless for a season, so- Yes, but this is the Dolphins... they're still the only one to go perfect.
33:55
This is the Dolphins, though. [laughs] Out of all the teams. First overall draft pick. No.
33:58
We're gonna need a, like in 2007, we're gonna need the Cleo Lemon to Greg Camarillo touchdown against the Ravens in week 15 or whatever it was to- Oh, God... salvage a win for the season.
34:08
They go 0 and 17, I will never hear it again. Never. Oh, gosh. Cancels out. I'm gonna wear my Bob Griese jersey on the show then. [laughs] With the, with that sweet face mask that he had going?
34:17
If you do that- Yeah, with single bar front. Yeah, yeah... you're welcome every day. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Baseball on the other side. Let's get back to it on the Numbers Game at VSiN.
34:25
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:41
Prior to placing a bet this week, ask yourself one question: Why this number? Not who you like, not your gut. Why is this spread actually worth betting? BTB Analytics gives you a real answer.
34:50
Their models independently price every NFL and college football game, then compare that projection directly against the market.
34:55
You get the model spread, the current market line, the cover probability, and the quantified edge, showing exactly where and by how much their numbers disagree with the book.
35:03
They've beat the market every year since launch. You don't believe them? Profitable three years running. It's verified through BetStamp. So there.
35:09
Scan the QR code or go to btb-analytics.com and use code VSiN for 10% off. That's btb-analytics.com. Check them out. Uh, we get tweets that beat the book. This is from, let's see, Steve the Proxy.
35:24
"I never want to judge someone for possible substance abuse, but Nick Kyrgios getting popped for, uh [laughs] yeah, for coke does pretty much explain his whole career. Life and money comes at you fast.
35:34
Have a good weekend." What, did that just happen? Oh, it was last week. Really? Yeah. Totally missed that. Yeah. He's, uh- Yeah, shocker. I, for one- Yes... am shocked.
35:44
No one has ever accused him of being a great guy, and yet rewarded with all kinds of media jobs. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but yes, all the talent in the world. I mean, no- That sucks...
35:55
I, I mean, I don't know who had more pure talent, but one of the, one of the great interview sort of exchanges ever was when R- when Rafa Nadal had won some match, and then some reporter asked him, he was like, "Do you think, like, if Nick Kyrgios, uh, you know, applied himself or did this and did that, like he's the be- one of the best players in the way," went on, droned on and on about Rafa, just up, the greatest answer.
36:16
He goes, "There is no if. If does not exist." It was just a fantastic, concise response. I remember, I remember that exchange. Yeah. You, uh, you just gave me a little bit of goosebumps a little bit. Really?
36:29
Yeah, that was, it was, it was a great exchange. It was so great. I re- I remember that. So great. Uh, Bruce Dobegan. People, it's so funny, the stuff we bring up and then what, what latches on with people.
36:38
The whole international NFL team really does Bother people. Bruce Dobing in, "Goodell's problem is NFL's talent pool." It's a great point. "Only major sport that produces no elite players outside of America.
36:48
They buy the merch, but they don't buy playing the game. Goodell wants to bear hug Brazilians at the draft." Well, I guess you could say that for other sports too, right?
36:57
There was a time when there was no international basketball talent, right, in the '70s, let's say. Yeah. So I guess he would say, "Yeah, well th- that'll take time." But yeah, it's much harder to do.
37:08
It's a lot easier to... I mean, 'cause basketball existed at least in those sports- Mm-hmm... right, in, in those countries.
37:14
They may not have had an international star yet, but I don't know, like are people playing football in- No, you-... enough countries? I mean, it would- You, you brought it up when we first were talking about it.
37:23
It's equipment. Yeah. It's equipment. I, it's just- Yeah... uh, we've talked about this with, with, with even in the US, right? And why can't, why isn't baseball more popular, uh, in certain locations, right?
37:35
It's, it's just, it's not, it's not cheap. Right.
37:37
It's, uh, it, right, and then a lot of, if we're talking about overseas, to get this equipment, there's like not like manufacturers are over there in Eur- in Europe building football helmets and shoulder pads and stuff.
37:47
Like, you'd have to figure all that stuff out. It has to catch on, catch on at the youth level. Like, it's just, I don't know. We're, we're years and years away, I think, from this being a reality.
37:56
Base- baseball has this exact problem, right? Right. Yes. Baseball, you know, demographically now is so much more different than it was in the '60s and '70s because of the, the cost.
38:07
That's why the, the RBI programs around the country are so important- Mm-hmm... to be inclusive.
38:12
But it, it, baseball also has the additional problem of, yeah, to get really good and make the pros, you gotta spend years usually in the minors. Yeah. Why would I play this sport kinda thing also.
38:22
There's, there's all kinds of hurdles to these things. Patrick Kelly, uh, we were talking about the college football big upset history earlier, putting the, uh, the UMass win over Rutgers last night in context.
38:33
Uh, he said that WV, uh, that WV, that West Virginia-Pitt game you, you mentioned in 2007 was awful.
38:39
West Virginia watch party, and I wasn't doing any sports betting, but a guy asked me in the third quarter, "Do you think the Mountaineers will cover?" And I say, "I don't give a blank.
38:46
They just need to win for a shot at the Natty." Sigh, cry, happy birthday. Yeah. That was, that was a, we all remember that, uh, that ballgame. And again, that ranked, what was that in the end?
39:00
That was, that was the ninth. That was the ninth largest spread of an outright upset in the history of college football, that, that game. Was that the ninth? Now I can't remember what it was. What did I say earlier?
39:12
It, oh no, I didn't even, it wasn't even on the list earlier. Yeah. Right? It w- it was like right on the edge of the top 10, but someone brought it up. That was th, w- was it 13 to 9 Pitt?
39:21
That score kinda rings out, and it was a, it was a Pat White, Steve Slaton West Virginia team. Ugh. All they had to do was beat this crap Pitt team, and I think Shady McCoy just destroyed them.
39:35
I think Shady McCoy had, like, 150 yards or something in that game. So we all remember that. College football- Yeah, tho- those West Virginia teams were- Oh... so much fun. So good.
39:45
Great college football is great college football. Or as, or as Jeff Pearl says, "College football, it is what it is," when he talks about the opposite of it. All right, back to baseball for a second.
39:55
So we, again, I mentioned this at the beginning of the show. Kelly was all prepared to do last team to lose a game in September, right? Great market that we've talked about in other months.
40:04
The problem is only three days in, I know it's the 4th, but only three day games, uh, games of, uh, or days of games so far in, we only have three undefeated teams left after last night. All the others toppled.
40:17
So the only three 2 and 0 teams [laughs] are, this is the only undefeated here on September 4th, are the Yankees, the Rockies, and the Reds.
40:26
Now, the Yankees to be the last team to lose a game in September versus the Rockies and Reds, you would assume they'd be the short shot, and they are, but not by much.
40:34
Plus 150 on the Yankees, two to one on both the Rockies and Reds to be the last undefeated in September. Um- So- Problem is the Yankees, their next three games are at Petco, at San Diego, for three.
40:50
Whereas the Rockies and Reds have home games. If you can go back to that for a second, guys. The Rockies have three home games against St. Louis. Um, and then- Yeah... and then what's the, uh, what do the Reds have here?
41:02
So j- so just money, money lines real quick. Reds have, Reds have three at home against the Brewers. So really based on schedule, the Rockies kind of have the built-in advantage. The Rockies could win this today.
41:14
They could. So today- But I'm not betting this. [laughs] It's interesting. I'm just not. It's like two to one is not enough. It is interesting, though. Colorado- Yeah...
41:21
Colorado plus arou- I'm gonna, I'm gonna average these out. Say plus 110 money line, uh, you're gonna get on Colorado at home. Yankees with Freed on the mound, about minus 115 on the road at San Diego.
41:36
So if you, wait, but if you had to, you'd go Colorado? No, becau- well, based on schedule, yes.
41:43
But then the next, I mean, before you even get to the period in the sentence, after the comma, after the comma it's, but am I really gonna live through a Rockies bet?
41:50
Yeah, you just c- these numbers, you c- you just can't bet this. You can't bet this. I mean, if you, if you li- Y-... if you like the Rockies, just bet, bet them on the money line here the next couple games, right?
41:58
This was a- I mean, the Yankees have to get through, I was gonna point out, it's interesting, right, if in theory, if both these teams win three in a row, they run into each other to settle this.
42:07
Oh, Yankees versus Colorado? Yeah. Yankees and, and Rockies. Each- But, like- Oh, I'm sure there'll be champagne in the locker room for that. [laughs] Right. Exactly. Yeah.
42:13
But, like, betting, betting a price right now on either one of these teams y- just to try to get to that point is a, is not a good bet. No. Money line rollover. No. We haven't said that since college basketball season.
42:24
Stop it. Stop it. Just do that. Reds have the worst of it, three home against Milwaukee, then three at Chavez Ravine against the Dodgers.
42:30
Anyway, that would've been a great mar- that would've been a great thing to highlight. You were r- you were well onto it yesterday, but then all the other undefeateds lost, so not quite as fun today.
42:38
The other thing that you wanted to throw [laughs] this is, this is a half segment of stuff we were going to have elaborate- Dude, I know... things to say about, but didn't work out. They had Triple Crown odds. Yes.
42:49
Which- In the American League... which we found very interesting to be as long as they were the other day. Do you remember what they, yeah, what was the numbers they- It was, like, plus 320.
42:56
Plus 320 on Yordan Álvarez of the Astros- Yes... to win the Triple Crown. Okay.
43:00
Well, just to give you an idea of how this is now very tenuous for Yordan, and then you can decide if that number, let's just assume it's that number when it comes back up, if it comes back up.
43:12
Yordan Alvarez has the lead in batting average, Triple Crown stats of course, average home runs and RBIs. Yordan Alvarez in the American League has the average lead. He's hitting 316 on the season.
43:24
Chandler Simpson of the Rays at 309 is the next closest. So pretty good looking on batting average. Home runs, he is tied now with Junior Caminero of the, uh, of the Rays, which we pointed out the other day.
43:35
They both have 37 ding-dongs. Ben Rice lurking at 35 for the Yankees. RBI now he has been tied by Pete Alonso of the, of the Orioles. They both have 94. Caminero is next with 88.
43:50
So he leads in average and he's in a deadlock with Caminero for home runs and with Pete Alonso for RBI. So what's Yordan's number last you saw, plus three something? Well, plus 320 on the yes was the last I saw.
44:01
I'm, once again I'm checking every single book that I have. I'd still bet it, but it's getting dicey. Okay. Uh, it's just- If anybody sees it out there, tweet it at me...
44:08
the thing about this, he was just destroying in these categories all year and now he's not, I don't know if he's gonna quite get to the finish line. I was looking forward to it. Yeah. Thank you for that.
44:17
Remember, there has not been a Triple Crown. Nobody has won the Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera did it in 2012? Was it 2012 or 2013? I was confused. One of those two years. Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers.
44:30
Before that it was 1967 when Carl Yastrzemski did it for the Boston Red Sox. That's why when Cabrera did it in 2012, it was such a big deal. Right. That was huge. And you're like, "We have to get..." And I remember
44:42
on the podcast, on the Betting Dog podcast at that time saying all this talk about Mike Trout, like, oh, this was a big thing. Mm-hmm. Oh, Mike Trout should win it over Cabrera.
44:49
You can't talk about this mythical- Yeah... Triple Crown thing for, at that point it was 45 years, and then all of a sudden decide it doesn't matter. Next year's a different story.
44:57
By the way, the other thing is AL West Division winner total is now 83 and a half. Save the world. With, with the over juiced. Astros are at 72 and 69. Remember Fez was on last Friday and he said over 81 and a half.
45:10
We'll ask him, we'll ask him about that one- Yeah... when he gets in here. Nice job, Stevie. Nice job. Chris Falica, the Bear, all his college football plays and more next on Our Numbers Game at Feast.
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