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Sep 4, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 4, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 4, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
44:50
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 189. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell- Heyo... live from Circa.
0:21
Fezzik Friday's coming up. Chris Fallica coming up. Lot of other stuff coming up as well. Uh, we get tweet speed of the book before we get to Fallica here.
0:29
Xavier82, "Speaking of the Toronto Blue Jays to make the playoffs from earlier, Caesars has a market up to be the sixth seed with Toronto at two to one." Oh, that's great. Femi mentioned it last night. He recommended St.
0:39
Louis at 30 to one in the NL. I don't know about St. Louis, but I sure do like his take on the Blue Jays there. More bang for your buck, right? Mm-hmm.
0:46
'Cause that's the only spot they are likely to make the playoffs in is the number six position, so an extra 25 cents, worth that? Uh, I don't know. Probably. Probably.
0:57
I like it just as much, if not better, than the plus 170. Oh, it's, uh, 30 cents better to make the playoffs. I like, I like what Femi's thinking right there.
1:04
Shrek McFee, "Not to harp on one backyard brawl, but wasn't that the Pat McAfee game? Two missed kicks? I'd say he bounced back [laughs] pretty good, LOL." He did, but wasn't it, like, early in the game?
1:15
So it was kind of like a footnote, but he did miss two field goals, for sure he did. But you're right, he's, he's doing okay. Whatever became of that Pat McAfee? Yeah, [laughs] never heard of him again.
1:25
Uh, Jason Stark, "I have, I have the O's to make the playoffs at plus 370. They pretty much sealed their fate when they lost two to the Rockies." Yeah, they did.
1:31
"Will be the third team right now if they won those games." I, I don't know if they sealed their fate, but I understand the point.
1:37
The fact that they're still one and a half out of this, so many people thought they were gonna be great. Uh, Jason McGinney, Jason McKinney with a, uh, tweet that's all over the place.
1:45
He said, "If Kelly would've watched the Little League World Series, he could comment on baseball growing globally. Curious how kids grow up playing baseball with broomsticks and bottle caps.
1:53
Curious how it's the most MLB, MLB players per capita. Other countries have pigs and coconuts, couldn't they make their own football equipment? Things that make you go hmm. I'm sure this is what Roger's thinking.
2:02
Plus, he doesn't care about Valentine's Day. Yes, I'm salty with a Super Bowl date this year. I'm a restaurant guy." Wow. Okay. All right. Oh, and listen to this.
2:11
Eric Biggio from William Hill Caesars has chimed in, "I am drunk with power." Listen to this. He said, "I have caved to the Numbers Game pressure. It's back up. Yordan Alvarez to win the, uh, Triple Crown.
2:21
The yes is four to one." Wow. "The no is minus 550." Thank you, Eric. I f- I feel- That's very good. That's very good of you. I f- Thank you so much... feel like the pricing is not coincidental either.
2:33
You hear, he heard us talking about how we kinda liked the plus 320, and was like, "Well, if I throw a four to one out there, I bet you I can get those suckers to buy in." Mm-hmm. Yeah.
2:41
Again, leads in batting average, pretty good cushion, tied in home runs with Caminero, tied in RBIs with Alonso. Come on, man. Let's go, Yordan.
2:52
Michael Lafon, "Gil, since you brought up the Triple Crown, it's a little-known fact, but in 2018, Christian Yelich came up with the bases loaded on his last at bat in the last game of the year, and if he would've homered, he would've won the Triple Crown.
3:04
336, 36, and 110 had that happened." Thank you, Michael. That's a great call. That's a great stat right there. I do not remember that detail, but he was, Yelich was so good that season.
3:15
I will never forget interviewing him when he was in single A, Gil, and the entire time I was talking to him I'm just thinking, "This little skinny kid is never doing anything. Like, this is, he's never going anywhere."
3:26
Yeah. Had a pretty good career. Not bad. Ladies and, ladies and gentlemen, you may know him as The Bear. El Oso. Fox Sports' Chris Fallica joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
3:34
Christopher, good morning, sir. Good morning.
3:38
And yes, that 2007, uh, college football, uh, backyard brawl game, I remember Pat was telling some stories about, uh, the number of death threats and everything that he got for, uh, missing a kick that really...
3:53
Like, it, it, the problem was is that the, the offense was just out of sync all night.
3:57
But yeah, that was, that remains to this day the most shocking result, uh, I have seen in college football, uh, in all, in all my years covering it. Wow. A West Virginia team that was unstoppable on offense.
4:09
Uh, Pitt was, uh, w- Juan Stead hobbling around on the sideline with a crutch. Yeah, Slayton and White, that offense was ridiculous, and, uh- So I don't know if you heard at the b-... keep us playing for the night...
4:20
yeah, I don't know if you heard at the beginning of the show, but, uh, inspired by UMass's big upset win over Rutgers last night- Yep...
4:25
I went through some of the, the, you know, the great historical upsets in college football history. So that, that's interesting g- from you specifically. This is, you said it's the most shocking upset.
4:34
Because I went- Right... I went- From, like, the, the, on, on a, like...
4:38
Yeah, it w- yes, last night may have been a bigger upset, but in terms of the stakes of that game, with how dominant West Virginia had been all year, with how lackluster Pitt has been, like, like, just shocking that West Virginia would lose that game and, and Pitt would pull the upset with a, uh, berth in the BCS championship game on the line.
4:57
You, you win on the stakes argument. I'm curious, was it m- m- maybe that's the, that, that's a differentiator.
5:03
'Cause was it more shocking than when [laughs] when Devita Pritchard and Stanford beat USC, USC had the 35 game home-winning streak, and the Appalachian State win over Michigan to start that season?
5:17
Yeah, m- yeah, uh, Appalachian State, that Michigan team had, had been coming off of a, they'd lost a lot of players from the previous year, and I, I think it was just all the, the whole FCS deal.
5:28
But that was a really good team. A- and, and people always talk, it's just the whole, it's Michigan and it's Appalachian State, so I, I think people kinda, kinda put that in their head as well, so. Yeah.
5:39
Yeah, but the, that, that national title on the line for West, I, I was just stunned to see the way that, the way that game went with the stakes that were, that were at, at home line.
5:46
It's one of the, it's one of those games too we all, it's, it felt like every human being was watching it at the time. Like, it was just so set up for- Yep...
5:52
West Virginia, and man, did they l- did they lay an egg for sure. All right, well let's start with college football- Yeah... your bread and butter. Let's start with your alma mater.
6:00
Tonight in Palo Alto, Miami 24 and a half point favorites against Stanford. Yeah, I hate that I'm laying so many points in a lot of these games, but I, I just have a hard time, uh, seeing Stanford compete tonight.
6:13
Um, offensive line injuries all over the place. I, I don't know how they're gonna be able to block Miami's front.
6:20
Uh, I don't know if they really have any differentiators at, at the skill position to be able to get open against one of the best secondaries, if not the best secondary in the country.
6:29
And it's not gonna be a situation like where Miami's gonna kind of take their foot off the gas. Like they, they've got guys, uh, second and third string who are looking for playing time.
6:38
They're looking to, uh, kind of establish themselves. We saw last year was like 35-nothing second half. Like this, I don't think it'll be a slow start. I, I think Miami comes out and takes care of business tonight.
6:48
All right. The man, the man's gonna lay a couple of these 24s and 24 and a halves here to start off. Yeah. Uh, the Ducks, the Oregon Ducks with their debut tomorrow. Uh, early game 12:30, uh, PM Eastern. Is...
6:59
Or no, that's 12:30 PM Pacific, right? Yes, yes, 12:30 PM Pacific. Not, not an early game. Not, not a super early start. But Oregon, uh, over Boise State, 24 and a half point spread here.
7:11
Yeah, I think this is another situation where, uh, the Boise offensive line I think is kind of a, a weaker unit for them. Uh, questions about how good their quarterback actually is.
7:22
Uh, Oregon, th- th- this is put up or shut up time. Y- you look at the, the defensive line that Oregon has, arguably, uh, the best in the country. Uh, wide receivers with that Stewart coming back, great.
7:33
One-two punch at running back, nothing more at quarterback. A couple years ago, remember the... Bo- Boise did go there and compete for a while.
7:40
But, uh, I, I think this is a much better Oregon team and a Boise team that is not as good. So, uh, I think Oregon will come out at home and, uh, and put, and put a big number up. Cal, UCLA, ACC, Big Ten.
7:55
Uh, Cal is a two-point dog. What do you got here? Well, my, my unscientific, uh, research theories of teams that open as the favorite and then go- close as an underdog, uh, I like that.
8:08
Whether it has any bearing whatsoever and actually proves to be true, I have no idea. But I think Cal's roster is better.
8:15
I, I think there's a little bit of a hesitancy because everybody's so high on Bob Chestny and UCLA, and they should be.
8:21
But I think at this point Cal's roster is better, and, uh, I will take Cal, Golden Bears, getting the, getting the two. Uh, I know the number's kind of fluctuated in a bunch of places, one and a half, twos.
8:33
But, uh, get- getting a couple points here at home, and I think Cal does win outright. Okay, let's get back to the, uh, larger double-digit favorites here. Let's start with, uh, FIU taking on... Oh, no, this is a...
8:44
You're going with the dog here. FIU as a 14 and a half point dog- Yeah... versus South Florida. Or South Florida, excuse me. Yeah, we, we stuck this one in there as kind of, kind of an ugly dog of the week.
8:55
Uh, first game obviously for Brian Hartline, uh, at USF. Completely new team as a majority of these, the- these teams are. Kind of a sneaky opener I think though for USF and the Bulls here.
9:06
Uh, Willie Simmons I think is creating a really good culture, uh, at, at FIU. They got, uh, transferred back from Georgia Tech who's pretty good. Uh, their secondary is deep in experience.
9:18
I'm not sure this is a straightforward easy win for South Florida like so many people might think. I, I, I like FIU here, uh, getting 14 and a half. Wouldn't surprise me to see, uh, Golden Panthers hang around here.
9:31
Okay, now back to the big favorites. Texas taking on the Pac-12's Texas State Bobcats as a 29 and a half point favorite. Pac-12's Texas State Bobcats. [laughs] That's right.
9:44
W- w- well, what did, what did you ju- what did you just say there? [laughs] Like i- that... Does that not represent like everything that's wrong with college football right now? Yeah.
9:52
Uh, ki- kidding as- kidding aside though, I, I... If you want it, I'll just lay a first half number with Texas. I could get to it there as well.
10:01
I think the, the common school of thought is that Texas is just gonna get up big and just bench starters. Uh, they're gonna look ahead to Ohio State next week. Uh, I'm not sure that matters though.
10:12
Like Texas' second string, third string, again, just like Miami, they, they're looking for playing time. They're looking to produce.
10:18
Uh, I, I think with all the questions that have come out lately about Arch and has he struggled, and, uh, i- is to this Texas' year, I, I think all of that kind of leads to Texas and Sark and that offense coming out putting up a big number.
10:31
Remember Will Muschamp, his first, uh, game back there as defensive coordinator there for Texas. I, I, I think they come out.
10:37
And, and like I said, I can get behind a first half bet only, but I do think Texas wins, uh, big. I think it's too easy to say that they just kind of coast and then, uh, turn their eyes to Ohio State the following week.
10:50
All right, a five-pack of plays from Chris. Now remind us, Chris, your, your... We'll, we'll throw out week zero. We'll still call it pre-flop. Your pre-flop top five would be what? Uh, um, Ohio State, Notre Dame.
11:10
Do I want to have Ohio State, Notre Dame, O- Or... Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame. Uh, I, I think were one, two, three. I believe I had, um, [smacks lips] Texas four. And who the hell did I have five? I, I, I forget.
11:25
All right. Well, we'll- I for- well, maybe Miami five. Might have been Miami five. Okay. Florida State? I wrote that, so. [laughs] Tufts? Were they in there? Flo- Florida State, fifth in the ACC. Fifth in the suit.
11:35
Who's that? The, the Tufts, Florida State. Were they in there at all? No? Nothing. Yeah. Just on the outside. Uh, Tufts, I have to wait and see how they do against Amherst- Okay [laughs]... uh, coming up next weekend.
11:43
That's a big one in the NESCAC. Uh, more with Chris. He's got, uh, NFL season long, and he's got some tennis, the US Open. Oh, boy. Next.
11:50
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:07
[laughs] Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander alongside the great Kalei Bailon. You can follow him on Twitter at KelleBydlon, K-E-L-L-E-Y B-Y-D-L-O-N. That's right.
12:22
Yeah. You can follow Gil on Twitter at BeatingTheBook. Hey, that was cute. What are we doing again? We have a, we, we have a TV on here in the studio, and occasionally we're distracted like squirrels.
12:33
And, uh, ESPN just- Easily... just had on, uh, they had a couple images where I, where I glanced over there. One is random, has nothing to do with anything. I guess they, they're promote...
12:41
They're teasing something and they're gonna talk about the Cowboys, surprise, in the next segment. No. [laughs] There you go.
12:46
[laughs] But the, but the shot that they showed was the, the typical NFL Draft war room, quote-unquote, you know, shot of Jerry Jones and all of the Cowboys front office
12:58
glad-hand, just congratulating themselves over whatever pick they just made. Oh, the best part of the NFL Draft. A- as if they won the Siege of Yorktown or something, right? Wow. Yeah, you're welcome.
13:08
And then, but then the other one, we'll bring in Chris Felica for this, is the other one was they, they're talking about the whole LSU, SEC deal. So, so it's been cleared.
13:16
These players who have put on pro uniforms can now come back, according to the judge, right? Can come back and play. And now, as you pointed out, Kelly Olvera, this comes down to LSU.
13:27
Are they gonna fly in the face of the SEC and actually put these guys on the field? Chris, what's your hunch? I don't know how you can play them.
13:36
I, I, like, we, we know this is gonna go to another court and they're gonna get ruled ineligible and the SEC's gonna win. Like, I try not to dive too much into this 'cause it's, it's all Greek to me. Yeah.
13:47
Tom Mor- Tom Mars, who is, like, one of the more prominent attorneys, uh, out there who does a lot of this, uh, he seems this is ultimately going to end with the SEC winning and these players being ineligible to play.
14:01
So I just don't know how you play them potentially. And then do you have to forfeit a game? You get a win vacated. Is it a loss? I, I, I... What's the upside? Uh, that, that's what I don't get.
14:11
The on- the one thing I would say, uh, is, like, does this may be an indication that Lane doesn't like his roster- Such a great point... as much as we thought maybe he would or should? Yeah.
14:22
Like, does he really think maybe they need this pl- these players, uh, to, to, to be the type of team that he hopes, or is it just, "Okay, I had these guys at Ole Miss.
14:30
I wanna do them a solid and, and, and get them back here"? So that... I, I... He, he is much of a renegade and a villain, and good for college football, by the way, that he's a personality.
14:41
I- I- as good as he is and a, a lightning rod, even Lane, I, I think, is gonna take a step back here and just say, "I can't do it." It's a great point about the roster. You are a Lane guy. We should establish that.
14:51
You are, you're a pro-Lane Kiffin guy. Yes. But the fact that you would say, "Even he would not" [laughs], that will be interesting to see if even he wouldn't.
14:58
[laughs] Anyhow, la- last thing before we get off college football, because I'm burying the headline, you are, as you are during the college football season, you come to us from a hotel somewhere.
15:06
Where's big news tomorrow? Yes. We are, we are in Bloomington, Indiana, home of, uh, it kills me to say that, home of the national champion Indiana Hoosiers. [laughs] Congratulations to Wes Reynolds.
15:17
But yeah, lo- the lovely, uh, lovely graduate hotel here, uh, in Bloomington. Very, very nice decor. They got the, of course the, uh, the Cutters, uh, banner hanging there.
15:28
You know, when Breaking Away, one of the great all-time sports and culture movies. Oh, wow. Yes. Yeah, but you, you, you a Breaking Away guy? I, I remember watching that in the theater as a kid.
15:40
It was the biking movie, right? Yep. Yeah. Yep. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Yeah, Cutters. We got, we got that there. But yeah, no, we, we'll be here, uh, tomorrow.
15:47
Not, not the greatest slate of games as evidenced by a lot of those big numbers that I'm giving out, but, uh, Indiana's season opener and, uh, away we go.
15:57
I'm glad you've gotten over the national championship game and your Hurricanes against the Hoosiers. At least, at least we got that going for us. Well, we, we, we have an agreement in my [audio cuts out]
16:07
bunch of luminaries in it that we are, we are allow... September 4th, today, is the last day that we are allowed to bring that game up- Oh, God... uh, and discuss it.
16:17
Once, o- o- once, once toe meets leather tonight in Palo Alto in front of 9,000 people... Are you, are you gonna go to the game, Gil? I'm thinking about it. You gonna have to ferry this weekend?
16:26
E40 halftime entertainment. Thinking about it. Yeah. You got to go. I don't, I don't know if I can. Come on. I... Do you wanna know the truth? I don't know if I can convince, uh, Deborah Song's fashion stylist.
16:35
I don't think I can, so might not happen. Tell, d- tell her to do it for me. Tell, tell her to go. She can root for my alma mater and have fun. If I do that, she'll be like, "Okay, for Chris? Sure."
16:43
[laughs] She'll do it. I pre- she really will. Sure. All right, to the National Football League, a late Chris Felica season-long prop. What do you got?
16:52
Remember last year at this time we were just sitting around talking about, uh, if Matthew Stafford gonna be able to play. Is he gonna be able to walk? Who knows. Oh, man. He takes one hit, his career could be over.
17:03
Uh, guy that went on to have an MVP season, had a great year, stayed healthy. And now it's just, like, we're just assuming that that's gonna happen and this is gonna continue? Like, I don't know. Hmm.
17:16
Chris, Chris is selling it. I, w- it just takes me... He's guy, guy's old, guy, guy is el- ol- old. He's been through a lot. Like, I played under 38.99 in terms of passing yards for Stafford.
17:26
Um, more things can go wrong than can go right. Uh, Adams is a year older. He certainly looks like he's lost a step. Puka, who knows what's gonna happen with him, if he's gonna face a suspension.
17:37
He certainly hasn't been, uh, healthy i, i- as well. Rams in general might be a team worth fading. Like, there...
17:46
I know DK has these props out there, and I use one of those Fast Future Boosts, uh, yesterday when I was, had multiple, uh, multiple hours to kill, uh, in the Delta Sky Club with, 'cause I'm here week one, hour and a half delay already, so we're off to a flying start.
18:02
So I bet more money and f- fired those apps up. But you can bet first five weeks how many wins will a certain team have. You can bet whatever team. I bet one win for the Rams at 14 to 1. Wow.
18:15
Uh, y- they have the Giants and they'll beat the Ra- they'll beat the Giants, but they've got the Bills in there. They got the Niners. They got, I think they got the Lions. They, they got Eagles, I think.
18:24
They got a pretty tough schedule. Right out of the gate. So 14 to 1, when it, it boosted I think to, to 21 to 1 or wherever the hell it was, I thought that might have been worth a shot.
18:32
Wait, repeat- But fading the Rams might not be a, a, a bad thing to do... repeat that bet again, for those who might have missed it, like myself? Uh, it's a fast future on DraftKings.
18:41
Any team, you can bet how many wins will a team have through five games. You can bet one, two, three, four, five. Yeah... whatever you want, or zero. And I bet 14 to 1 that they would have exactly one win- Oh, my...
18:54
through five weeks. Oh, my. You know they're gonna beat the Giants. Like, like if they- Yeah, yeah...
18:58
if they, if they lose to the Rams, they'll beat the Giants, they maybe can play around a little bit, uh, after that, 'cause you got a couple of road games, and then maybe Monday night.
19:07
I mean, could you imagine if they're sitting one and three hosting the Bills on Monday night? It'd be a pretty nice position. Man.
19:12
By the way, did you catch, I was about to, like, Malika was, was getting pounded in the corner.
19:17
I was about to step in like Richard Steele or Mills Lane and stop the fight, and then as soon as I was about to step in- Yeah, Clay threw back though... he threw, he threw an uppercut and he was right back in it. Mm-hmm.
19:25
Right back in the mix. [laughs] Nice, nice save right there. All right, let's go to the US Open. Third round matches- Mm-hmm... begin today. You have added a future.
19:34
I, I thought when you were saying you turned on the TV and you saw, you know, I, I thought you were commenting maybe on, uh, Sabalenka, Kostyuk, and Sorana Cîrstea being on the court right now ear- with the early 11:00 AM.
19:46
The Kostyuk up an early break, three-love right out of the gate. Uh, I think we're steamrolling towards an Alcaraz, Fritz final. Uh, Fritz has been fantastic, uh, in, in the tournament so far.
19:58
You're getting still a good price on this. I don't... Not sure if he's still 11 to 1. The price may have come down. You would've gotten a much worse price had Sascha Zverev lost. Uh- Yes...
20:08
uh, Fritz definitely would've been the second choice of that. So you can still get a decent price on Fritz. He was dominant yesterday. This is his best major.
20:16
I, I think he's super live to, to win and kind of break that American, uh, drought in slams.
20:21
He, he, he, he, I, if you could find an Alcaraz, Fritz head-to-head maybe, like name the finalist, that might be a, a, a way to go as well. Taylor Fritz, the American.
20:30
American, uh, not, not the American number one anymore. I think Ben Shelton is. I'm, I, I never know the rankings exactly, but I think Ben Shelton- Yeah. [laughs]... came in as, as American number one.
20:39
But Fritz to win the US Open 11 to 1.
20:41
Do you think, though, if they met in the finals, like if Carlos wins, if Carlos is playing well enough to have gotten all the way to the finals, isn't he in just supreme form at that point, though, do you think?
20:53
He mi- he, he might be. Yeah. Uh, he might be. But again, there, there's no guarantee- No... that he even...
20:58
I mean, I'm, I'm just trying to throw a bet out there, but I mean, he lost to, lost a set the other night against Freya.
21:03
Like, he, he, he's got, uh, Yibing Wu today who, who is someone who is a, is a pretty good tennis tactician and can throw a lot, uh, back at him. He's still working his way, uh, into the tournament.
21:15
He's a massive favorite today. So we'll, uh, we'll ultimately see. By, by the way, can I, can I just take a, go on the soapbox? Please. And go sports radio?
21:23
The state of men's tennis today, how soft are some of these guys? [laughs] This was Drew's thing. FAA. Yeah. Theis, uh, um, Musetti yesterday. Like- Hoder... even Shelton- Hoder... is, is- Yeah... Sinner is soft.
21:40
Hoder, I mean, what was that? Straight sets, w- two and one- I have no idea... in the second and third set. Like, well, g- give m- give me, give me some, some, some talk. Get Djokovic out.
21:52
Give me, give me Djokovic out there gutting it out after vomiting five... Like, th- this new school of player, they need to- I'm with you, Ben... take a little, uh, intestinal fortitude, as Gorilla Monsoon would say.
22:02
I, [laughs] I love it. Hey, man. A little generational knockdown is what that was from Chris, and I agree completely. Correct. Get off my lawn.
22:08
I mean- [laughs] And if you, and if you watch, I'll say it again, if you watch that Rafa Nadal docuseries just called Rafa on Netflix- Right... we, we knew how tough he was.
22:19
This dude played his entire career winning 22 Grand Slams thinking it might be the last time on his c- on the court every single time. Yep. Because his injuries were so bad. His foot condition was so bad.
22:31
And they- Yep... and Jannik Sinner just- Yeah, my foot could literally implode at any moment... and Jannik Sinner casually is like, "Ah, my knee kind of hurts.
22:36
I know the doctors cleared me, but this is the US Open, I can't play this." Yeah. Yeah. True. Nice soapbox, Chris. Well done. Thank you. The 45 to 75 demographic is back with us. Thank you, Chris.
22:48
Best of luck on week one, Chris. That's right, best of luck. Five pack of- Thank you, sir... college football plays. Coming back on a Numbers Game. Country Club [upbeat music]
23:03
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget about the Sharp Plays.
23:08
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Scan the QR code on your screen for more at sharpplays.com.
23:19
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets, we need a book. Larry Fresh, oh, he's playing, he's playing on the no guy. He said, "Darryl Strawberry's doing coke, we, uh, make jokes about him.
23:28
Michael Irving is doing coke, we make jokes about him. Nick Kyrgios is doing coke, we, uh, obviously make jokes about him." No. No. Oh, I shouldn't. I gotta let you do it every time.
23:36
[laughs] I gotta let you do it every time. Shooter McGavin, "I was too young for Pitt over West Virginia. The ones I remember," college football ups says, "uh, I think- Oh, shoot...
23:43
Baker Mayfield lost to Iowa State laying 31 and a half." I think you're right about that. Yeah. "And I remember a top five Wisconsin team," he says, "losing to Illinois."
23:52
Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panties, says, "Pre-flop Colorado money line plus 220 yesterday. There's 40 seconds left in the game. Georgia Tech getting the ball back down 14-13. I said screw it.
24:02
Took all my potential profits minus $20 and put it on Georgia Tech plus 440. My net position on no vig at this point was Georgia Tech minus 534.2%, $0 to win $900." Wow, that was a, that was crazy at the end there.
24:15
Great, great work. Yeah, I don't know what the final part was. [laughs] I don't know what part. A little, a little too much to come back. I don't know what we were going for. Yeah. Hey, great job. Great arbitraging.
24:24
Steve Cohen, @thestevecohen21, Mets owner, VSiN program director. Who knows? Says, "Coming into town to put in my Circus Survivor entries. Do I get one additional entry or go to Ito for dinner?" Oh, great call. Oh, man.
24:37
What do you do? You get one extra Survivor entry to go to Ito for dinner. I would say go to Ito for dinner. I didn't wanna answer this question. Go to Ito to dinner, for dinner. Yep. Telling you.
24:47
See- But make sure they set you up in the poodle room afterward, too. Enjoy the poodle room. Yeah, enjoy the poodle room. That is, do you know there's a m- that's a membership club.
24:56
You remember, do you remember how packed it was when we were in there? Not very. Thursday night at Fountain Blue. Not very. Fountain Blue Friday and Saturdays do very well.
25:03
Pretty sure the other five days of the week, it's a bit of a struggle. Mark Gupta, this is more of a question for you than for me.
25:09
He says, "Hey Gil, for your country club and segment, any early leans on the President's Cup, um, at Medina, where I'm a member? U- unusually hot and humid early September here. USA heavy favorite?
25:18
Maybe wait for match-ups?" What would you say, sir? That's a great question. Uh, the problem is the, the, how the question started, early leans. The early bet was to take USA, like, three weeks ago.
25:27
Uh, that, that, that number's just getting steeper, steeper, steeper. I think it's, like, minus 400 the last time I checked it, but that was even probably four or five days ago at this point.
25:36
It, it would be USA or nothing. I think you're just waiting for matches. I, I, I'll speak for myself, I'm just waiting for matches at this point. And finally, Bet Your Boots Off, apropos the Jardiance interview [laughs]
25:47
, "A&G should have a blind taste test with the bottled waters. I'm taking the under on all contestants." I don't get the under thing. I don't get the under anything. If we're doing a blind, a blind taste test.
25:56
Except that is now the third tweet I remember getting about a- Oh, yeah... a blind taste test of the bottled waters. 'Cause people don't b- people don't believe we, I can discern the difference.
26:03
Oh, I can if it's Fiji or Arrowhead, to the, to the band. You know what? Here's where I'll keep it real, Gil. I like to sit up here and make grand statements on what I believe about these bottled waters.
26:14
Do I really believe I'd be able to identify each one in a blind taste test? I don't know. Probably not. And I'm glad you brought up the Jardiance interview, uh, 'cause we couldn't remember her name earlier.
26:23
Diana Colon- Yes... was the, was the original Jardiance- It was awesome... and our director, Larry Meir, reminds us. He was like, "Do you guys remember how depressing that interview got?"
26:31
[laughs] And I was like, "No, kind of." [laughs] And he says she wrote the song- Yeah... and didn't get any payment for it. Right. And then Jardiance has gone on to have, like, 75 billion commercials after her.
26:42
'Cause she was, like, a do everything- Yeah... to be famous person, right? She was, like, she was a singer, actress, com- you know, commercial actress. Yeah. She had, like, a cooking show I remember we found.
26:51
She had a, she had a great attitude about it. Awesome attitude. But now you're trying to get the No guy. What are, what are you setting the odds at for us getting him on the show?
26:58
[clicks tongue] Uh, what'd I just tell you? I emailed him about 30 minutes ago. I'm gonna say two to one he's booked by the end of the show. Give me plus 200. Okay. Maybe a little longer.
27:07
It's F- it's a Friday, Labor Day Fri- you know what? I'm gonna reset those odds. Plus 350. Friday on Labor Day weekend, he might not be.
27:14
[laughs] If, I'm gonna say minus 200 by the time we're here on Monday I have him booked for next week. It's gonna be as hard-hitting as my Jay Cohen interview, I promise. I promise you. No.
27:25
[laughs] Uh, ladies and gentlemen, it's time for Are We Sure? Let's go. [upbeat music] You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure? I'm positive.
27:37
Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? Estamos seguros? All right. Swear Kelly, uh, has things on his mind. He's asking, "Are we sure?"
27:50
I just love the music at the end there. Was that a little dance there? Uh, it's, it's like the Dan dance. Is it, wh- This is the Danny dance... when you dance, do you do fingers? No, I don't at all. No.
27:57
But this is like the Danny dance. Oh, Danny Higgins. Remember that? Danny at the, Higgins at the bar. Danny, he's still talking about you. Oh, yeah, I am, man. Oh, a- and, and I got the call the other day.
28:06
Two days ago, I got the call. From? The Ben Wilson. Oh. For Kel- Kelly Bidlin's Great Real- Realtor Services. Remember, I g- I, he- Oh, 'cause Ben-... that's his house... Ben needs a client...
28:18
that I've had, I've, I've set up two recent people to live in. So he needs a new tenant, you're his guy. He, he needs a new tenant. He- Did he kick you back anything for it, or no? No, absolutely not.
28:27
He, we even went out to dinner one time. He didn't buy dinner or anything.
28:29
Ben Wilson who famously just walked in while Danny was a tenant because he's Ben Wilson, and Danny, a former police officer, might have had a gun. That could have gotten ugly. That could have gotten really ugly. Yeah.
28:41
It actually scared me. When he, when Danny first told me that story- Bro... it scared me. You know Ben. Ben's like, "Well, I'm so, what do you mean?" Nice kid. Yeah. [laughs] Wisconsin family. Everybody's so nice.
28:52
I love you, Ben. Uh, we love Ben. I, it was great catching up with him. Okay, Gil, are we sure- Yes... we will see former professional football players play- Oh... college this season? I just asked this of Chris Fallica.
29:04
I genuinely do not know. I am not sure. No, I'm not sure we will. It is, it, I cannot wait to see how this plays out over the next, when does LSU play? Is that, is that tomorrow or- Yeah... is it Sunday? Oh.
29:15
Oh, that's right, it's, uh- That's, I guess, screwed up 'cause of Labor Day weekend... it's the, yeah, it's the last college football only weekend.
29:20
So the one, um, you know, like, one of these guys, like Daquan Wright said after the hearing yesterday, like, he, he's, he's ready to go. Been working out with a team. He plans on playing. Plans on playing.
29:30
So we'll see what LSU and Lane Kiffin end up doing. I, I'm with Chris, man. What about, what about DeJon Love? Is he ready to go? Is that the, is that the Niners guy? [laughs] I think he's ready to go, too, yeah.
29:39
[laughs] I don't think anybody's playing him, though. LSU game, by the way, is on, uh, yeah, it's tomorrow. Okay. Mm-hmm. Uh, are we sure CJ Carr should be the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy?
29:51
I'm not sure about that, that he should be the favorite. S- I mean, some might feel that way. Um, but I, you know, he's not that big of a favorite either, right? No.
29:59
Like, Arch Manning is right behind him, plus difference is $7 on, excuse me, plus, yeah, seven to one on CJ Carr, plus 750 on Arch Manning. Darian Mens of Miami, 11 to one. Dante Moore of Oregon, 11 to one.
30:14
No, I'm not sure he should be the favorite. My mind is never gonna be able to get used to this college football thing with, like, the, just the Dante Moore example, and the fact that we don't talk about it more.
30:24
[laughs] That this guy could've been, like, the second overall draft pick, and he's like, "Nah, I'm gonna go back to Oregon." Go back to school. Remember we were arguing for- What do you mean I can-...
30:31
we were arguing for two months... well, I mean, if you're a, I mean- About him or Mendoza going one. Like, we didn't know. But could I, if you're-...
30:38
a college football big time quarterback and they're giving you mil- at this point, you're making millions of dollars, let's be honest. You're making a couple mil, let's say, conservative.
30:45
I don't know how much they're making. Right, yeah. But we don't know exactly, but let's say it's a couple mil. And it's still college campus with girls. Why rush it along?
30:53
I'm like, this is, okay, so like I actually- I know, I know injuries, I get it, but still. No, no, no. I actually think you're thinking the more logical way. Yeah.
30:59
I think Dante Moore probably was as w- I just can't i- like, the whole goal of your life, right, was to make it to the NFL, and it's like it's right there. It's a whole, it's a whole new world. It's a whole new world.
31:10
Uh, are we sure Miami, the University of Miami, should be minus 146 to win the ACC in a 17 team conference? I don't appreciate your tone. [laughs] Just can't believe these odds.
31:25
Kelly, this seems very, you seem very angry about this. Nobody's got a shot. It's like he went to FSU or something. 50 to one. Uh, I- Boy, that got more depressing... I am sure that, uh, they should be minus 146.
31:36
I apologize to you, but I am sure. Even if you broke it down by unit, they have the best offense in the ACC. Not only Mensah of course, but Malachi Tony, the headliners. They got the best defense in the ACC.
31:48
They, they lose Bain and Mesidor on the defensive line. You know what they do? Eh, we'll just replace them with these guys who are top shelf. All their corners are back. They got the best defense.
31:58
They got the best offense. They got the best defense. Yes, they should be minus 146, and there's nobody else in the conference that is, like, that awesome. Darnell, leave this graphic up.
32:06
Are we sure Florida State, after winning a game, should move from 35 to 50 to one? Eh, maybe. [laughs] Yeah, maybe. [laughs] I'm with you on that one. Maybe we are. All right, moving on. NBA now.
32:18
Are we sure Kawhi Leonard will make the Raptors a real contender in the Eastern Conference? Well, define real. They could make the Eastern Conference Finals. If you had said semifinals, I would've said yes. Okay.
32:30
Eastern Conference Finals? They're, I mean, they're a contender to make the finals. I don't know that they're a lock to make the finals. Yeah, I guess it w- the broad definition of contender, yes. Yeah. I'm with you.
32:41
Yeah. Cop out. Eh, whatever. Good answer. Yeah. Um, the point- By the way, the point, the point we didn't make about that whole Kawhi thing yesterday is
32:47
the, the NBA really fixed Steve Ballmer in the s- in the sense that the, only the player can bring it to arbitration. And so when, so when Kawhi quickly was like, "I accept responsibility. Sure."
32:57
Uh, the $700,000 shirt and then nothing else happened to him, it boxed out Steve Ballmer from having arbitration. He would have to go through the court system. Yeah. Dude, it's incredible.
33:08
I don't, I, I know I texted you this right away. I was listening to, listening to ESPN guys talk about, so Windhorst and stuff, and it was... Or no, I'm sorry. I was listening to Pablo Torre finally.
33:18
Yeah, w- after, after it came out. Take it. Pablo Torre and the guys. Take it as victory lap. And, and, like, no- like, was none of that, right? They were just reacting to the story. Mm-hmm.
33:27
And they said, they're the first ones to h- that I've heard say this, and it was what I... Do you remember what I texted you right away when it came down?
33:33
I'm surprised it wasn't worse, of just wh- what the, the punishment for the Clippers and Steve Ballmer was. And I know it's historic. I'm surprised it wasn't worse. Hmm. Probably doesn't take a team away from the guy.
33:45
That was a proper, proper harsh punishment. More are we sures on the other side? Sure. All right. I am sure. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
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34:11
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34:37
Bet sharp, look square. Kind of, uh, Drew Tabor, CEO of Ungambled, come on the show while you were gone, Kelly. How was that? It was all right. Oh, cool. [laughs] We'll go check him out. [laughs] Ungambled.com.
34:52
Uh, I don't know. Uh, Drew wasn't here for a full review, otherwise I would give you the, the, the Drew, the Drew Maxwell review. Uh, let's see here.
34:59
On Twitter, Tronsky, "Hey Gil, are we sure that this whole snafu with LSU isn't being blown out of proportion with the number of athletes and lawsuits around the country?
35:06
Couldn't the NCAA have made this a lot easier by granting a waiver to those students being left out of the new 5-5 rule?" Tronsky, it's a great point.
35:13
I mean, it's not outlandish because they're allowing this starting next year. So these kids do have a point. Mm-hmm. Right? It's like, "Hey, why, why are we being boxed out of this?"
35:22
I mean, that's the whole genesis of all of this. Yep. Uh, y- maybe they are, Tronsky. Maybe they are. Uh- Well, w- but what's, what's Tronsky's solution there? Just, just let them go? Yeah.
35:32
Like, let's just let these kids play? Let them play. Yeah. Let them play. Jared- No, it's, it's, I think we are making a too big of a deal about it. This goes back to our NBA conversation yesterday, right?
35:41
There, there is definitely a lot of these coaches, conferences, schools that are just upset that it's Lane Kiffin and LSU scooping up these b- these bigger names quickly, right? Yeah. Probably some of that.
35:53
Jared Still, "Here's my contribution to the bottled water conversation and entirely how I feel about Dasani." Oh, he said he's b- "Me being waterboarded. Gross, is this Dasani?"
36:02
[laughs] We, we have, we have to actually, we have to actually... So we, we're thinking about this.
36:08
So next Mon- this coming Monday is the last meh Monday c- I m- and no offense to the guest that we have [laughs] on Monday. I shouldn't say it that way. But what I mean is it's the last pre-football Monday. Yes. Right?
36:20
And it's Labor Day. Half of you guys are gonna be at home. Half of you guys are doing your stuff on Monday. Cooking out, not listening, not caring about me or Gil at all. That's right. Which offends me. Eh. See?
36:28
He's already getting upset. Yeah. He's already g- I'm gonna cry... the tears are coming.
36:31
So we, we were thinking about w- I, I think you had a great point off air, which is we can't line up five waters at the same time and test it. Yeah. Because the palate becomes sort of I don't know, uniform at that point.
36:46
But if we- Yeah, it's just gonna taste like water... but if we do a head- 3.48... if we do one head-to-head each hour, that's the proper way to do it. Okay, that's the plan. Okay. That's the plan on Monday.
36:55
All right, let's do it. People- Start at 7:15. Oh, the great, the great water test of a numbers game 2026. All right. Yeah, Chris, Chris Foster has fired away.
37:05
FIBA World Cup, he's going back after getting, uh, beat by the hook earlier this morning. Germany plus seven and a half taking on Spain. [laughs] He's in, just started. Chris Foster loves betting. I love that kid.
37:18
He really does. Here's the thing, if you missed it earlier. Team USA beats, uh, China by 33. The spread was 33 and a half. How do they know? How do they know? I love that you started [laughs] with that. How do they know?
37:29
Vegas, man. Vegas. Vegas, whoa. How do they know? Those guys are good. Uh, but, uh, the female Yao Ming, as she's referred to, um- Is that real? That really is the... she knocked down-... proper way to tell the female...
37:41
two free throws. China was down 35 with 1.6 seconds left or something like that.
37:45
She knocks down, coolly knocks down two free throws to make the, uh, final margin, um, 33, and Chris gets locked out of his minus 33 and a half. On like the final minutes whi- I, I was kind of scrambling back there.
37:58
I'm getting ready for the show and everything, and they're talking about this as it's co- you know, getting down to the wire, the crew is.
38:03
And Matt Hicks, one of our fine directors here, uh, was talking about how she, like she's just constantly living at the line.
38:10
And I'm like, w- once he said that, I'm like, "What, is like USA like intentionally fouling her?" Like, that seems bizarre when we, the, the talent gap, uh, is what it is, right?
38:20
You know, I didn't realize she was a full 7 foot 3. 7 foot 3 inches tall. Zhou Zheng is her name. Zhou Zheng. Wow. Hope I'm pronouncing that okay. Back to Are We Sure. What do you got?
38:31
Are We Sure, we got a few more left. Okay, are we sure the Dodgers and Yankees should be the favorite to meet in the World Series?
38:38
Okay, this is an interesting question because while I believe it's wide open, and while I believe, whi- while I would not bet on that matchup, right? I would bet, as I mentioned the other day, Red Sox versus Phillies.
38:50
Yes, I am sure that those two teams should be the actual favorites. Okay.
38:56
That doesn't mean that I would, that I think they're l- they're both likely, or either is likely to get to the World Series 'cause the nature of the format is the Yankees are gonna have to play a best of three if they don't overcome the Rays.
39:07
I think they're down three games right now in the AL East. And the Dodgers are in a dog fight with the Braves for the number two seed right now. They're both three wins behind the Brewers.
39:17
Remember, it's only the, the two top seeds that get the bye in the first round, so even the Dodgers might be subjected to a best of three. So it's a different question. Do I think they'll get- Right...
39:27
there, either or both? No, but they, yes. But, but, but yes, they both still should be the favorites based on them being the best teams.
39:34
And that, okay, and I think you just answered it, but I feel like one or two people out there is gonna be asking this question. That is just Gil Alexander would have them as the favorite.
39:42
Not the Gil Alexander Sports Book, right? 'Cause some people are gonna be like, "Well, everybody comes in with the- Right... Dodgers and Yankees." Right. But the- They're just the true favorites...
39:50
but the, but the best of threes complicates that. Mm-hmm. So I guess mathematically, I don't know. I mean- Ooh, okay... 'cause the, the, the, the best advantage you can have is missing that best of three. Right.
40:02
And that's a massive advantage. It is huge. Yeah, so I, I don't know. I mean, they're the best teams per c- per div- per league, pardon me, [laughs] best teams per league, but the best of three complicates things.
40:16
All right, JT tweeting in @speedtoburn725, and you guys, you guys are always welcome to tweet me, uh, Are We Sure suggestions. He, uh, tweets at me, "Are we sure that Arch Manning can play quarterback?"
40:29
Yeah, I think we're pretty sure. It'll come around. He was really good at the end of last year. Yeah, he struggled a little bit at the beginning, though. Yeah. Yeah, he was at the beginning.
40:34
I, I think JT's trying to get at is this another Bryce Young situation coming our way? Oh, no, it's not. That's four, four years- No, I don't think so... that I'm still not gonna be sure. No. Okay. Love the questions.
40:44
Uh, are we sure, here's a Kelly personal one, are we sure Anthony Richardson never starts in the NFL again? He got nam- named number two on the depth chart for the Colts.
40:53
I don't know about never, so I'm not gonna say I'm sure it's never, but it's, it's trending more that way than ever, let's put it that way. I really hope we get to see him.
41:03
That, that Jameis Winston 30-30 season, one of the greatest seasons I've ever watched of football. I feel like Anthony Richardson has that potential. You love Anthony Richardson. I do. I was- Are we sure?
41:12
I, I genuinely, this is a serious moment. I genuinely hope his eye is okay. Yes, seriously. I don't think we've made enough of that. No. Yep, you're right.
41:19
Are we sure the Cardinals or the Dolphins will have the worst record in the NFL? I am sure, and you, you didn't even have to say the Cardinals in that sentence. Yeah. I think it's, I think the Dolphins,
41:30
if the Dolphins do not have the worst record in the NFL this year, it's a pretty big upset. They might just be that bad. Three and a... I, I would go under on three and a half. I really would.
41:40
All right, Andrew Maxwell chiming in. Are we sure the Cronkes will improve the Angels? Yeah, I am. Okay. I mean, uh, first of all, you could insert any name besides Dan Cronke.
41:52
Anybody who made that purchase- Was gonna improve... is going to improve on Arte Moreno. Yeah. That's a great call. Arte Moreno had Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for six years together. They got nothing to show for it.
42:05
And you're in the best market in the... I mean, you know, arg- I mean, obviously arg- some people aren't LA fans, but you're obviously one of the best, if not the best market in the entire country. I know it's Anaheim.
42:14
It's not, uh, I know it's Orange County. It's not LA proper, but come on. Absolutely they will improve on this. All right, well, that's the end of Are We Sure. Thanks to our title sponsor.
42:24
Oh, wait, that's still available. Maybe a water brand. Sponsored by no one. Yeah. Open sponsorship opportunity here. Gave that horrible contract to Rendon. We can go on and on. Wanna hit the club? Yeah, let's do it.
42:35
Hit the club. [upbeat music] Speaking of Ben Wilson, his family. Oh, here's a look ahead at his wedding. [singing]Oh, when does the Ben Wilson wedding happen? One year away.
42:48
You know what one of my big regrets from this summer is? Missing Jason Weingarten's wedding. Yeah, I really wish you would've attended too. I am, we are really upset about that. That would've been nice.
42:59
I think Jason's a little offended, by the way, but I'll have to make good with it. Really wanna go to Ben's. I don't know if I'm gonna make the cut. He kind of warned me. It's limited. Big families. Big families.
43:09
And of course, of course, it's a nice location. Oh, really? Where is it? Uh- Oh, no, you can't say? Uh, yeah, I don't wanna s- Okay. It's at offset... I don't wanna say. But it's a nice location. Paparazzi might show up.
43:18
Sounds like a great wedding. Helicopters might show up. Sounds like one that definitely has an open bar, and I'd have a great time there. [laughs] Only two tennis bets today.
43:26
Uh, we split on the dogs yesterday, so very small gain. Uh, Bublik on the men's side, +148 versus Tommy Paul. Taylor Townsend, +144 versus Diana Schneider. On to quarters? Love it.
43:36
Let's, yeah, let's hit some updated quarter prices. We're a little short on time here. We can clean this up later, though. All right. Men's side. Yeah, let's hit first quarter. Um, uh, Sa- Done.
43:47
[laughs] The, Sasha Zverev has, Sasha Zverev has played two long five setters into the night, but he's winning that quarter still. There's, there's, uh, none of those guys is gonna topple him in his quarter.
44:00
It's pretty smooth at this point for Sasha Zverev to win. Okay, and just a heads up, these are currently down as matches have started, but these are what the odds were this morning for the quarter finals.
44:09
Let's put it this way. Anybody who could've beaten him, Hodar, Musetti, de Minaur, Alise, none of... They're all gone. So at -400, it's still his quarter despite the, uh, the toll on his body. Oh, is that all we got?
44:23
Okay. Oh. Yeah, well, yeah. We gotta go to break. We'll go do [laughs] more. We'll do more after Fezek, I guess. Yeah, yeah. We'll check on him- Later on in the show... in the last segment, yeah.
44:30
Because Steve Fezek is next. Boy, the timing was great there, huh? Yeah. One of our finer moments. Steve Fezek, the star of Fezek Fridays. I'll try to be nicer this week. Try.
44:41
Next on The Numbers Game at Visa, the eSports betting network. [upbeat music]
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