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Sep 5, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 5, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 5, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. [clears throat] Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin
0:21
on a Thursday morning of football. Let's go. So pumped. Football, as the coaches say down south. How you doing, man? You good? I'm good. I'm ready to go. Uh- Slept like a baby last night. Did you?
0:33
It's like Christmas morning. Oh, wow. That's news. Yeah, I was di- I was dying the past couple days 'cause I wasn't sleeping. I don't know why. That's right. Slept like a baby, ready for some football tonight.
0:41
Thank God it's back. Football. Uh, unscripted with the Crack Man today. Bill Krackomberger will be here. Uh, Zach Cohen will join us to talk both US Open and NFL.
0:50
We will go through, Kelly and I, our AFC and NFC power rankings, and later, the Larceny Bourbon Smooth Play of the Week, Kelly. I like it. I like it. This is one, uh, we'll be doing this every week.
0:59
Larceny Bourbon on as a sponsor here, uh, the Smooth Play of the Week, and it's a, it's a play that you and I are aligned on, so we'll talk through that. Oh, okay. That's cool. We'll do that.
1:09
Uh, real quick because I wanna talk obviously Ravens and Chiefs. Uh, special Numbers Game investigation revealing that the Ravens and Chiefs kick off tonight. Uh, US Open real quick yesterday, uh, good and bad.
1:20
The good far outweighed the bad. We hit the Karolina Muchova quarter at 10 to 1, baby, and some people online- Nice... apparently got it at 100 to 1 or 150 to 1 at the, uh- [laughs]...
1:31
at the offshore shop, I'm told, Sportsbook.ag. Oh, that's still up and running? So, uh, that's what I said. [laughs] So apparently, apparently they probably put an extra zero in there- Yeah, uh, the extra zero...
1:42
'cause there's no other explanation for it. But congratulations [laughs] to those of you who hit on her at 100 to 1 or 150 to 1. My God. Uh, those of us mere mortals hit it on 10 to 1, so that was the good thing.
1:53
It was easy-peasy in the morning. Uh, so that was the good one. The bad, uh, Alex de Minaur lost in straight sets, so we lost on that match. Uh, the announcers, uh, were saying he was probably hurt the entire time.
2:03
Yeah, that's what I kept hearing. So that kinda sucks. Yeah. Um, not really anything you can do about that.
2:07
Uh, and then we lost our future on Iga, who played, Iga Swiatek, world number one, played probably the worst match I've ever seen her play in her entire life. Just an unforced error of grade.
2:15
Jessie Pegula deserves credit, too, but, uh, Iga gave her a million free points, and so we lose on that. Um, but all dwarfed by the 10 to 1 on Muchova. Nice hit.
2:27
Um, and, and Chris Felica continues his slander of Iga online- [laughs]... with really irresponsible tweets, which we'll get to with him tomorrow. That's a whole 'nother story. All right. Uh, today we do have one.
2:36
I didn't think we were gonna have any more plays because I thought Iga was gonna advance, but now we do have a play. I could not wait for them to put out the Pegula/Muchova line. The women's semis are today.
2:46
It came out Muchova plus 140. Give me that. If you are a VSiN subscriber, you got that at plus 140, VSiN.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every pick in every sport. Uh, Muchova at plus 140.
2:57
She's about plus 129 right now, still on the edge of being playable. Don't let it get out of the plus 120s. Don't let it get lower than that. But we have Muchova at plus 140 against Pegula.
3:07
Not only did Pegula sort of capitalize on a lot of unforced errors, but Muchova's, uh, hard court data, six-month, 12-month, much better than Pegula's. Um, Pegula's are good. Muchova's are great.
3:19
So Muchova's the play as a pretty sizable dog. Uh, to the National Football League, the Chiefs and the Ravens. I sort of wanna couch this on the morning of, um, as really where does your handicapping brain go? Mm.
3:35
Because in the Chiefs you have the defending two-time Super Bowl champions, of course, who in Patrick Mahomes sort of have a, a hack to the entire sport of football. I don't mean, like, he's, he's a hack.
3:48
I mean that he hacks the entire- [laughs]... sport itself. I got it, but- Let me just be clear... a good clarification probably. [laughs] Yes, let me just be clear.
3:55
Um, and then in the Ravens you have this, uh, the analytics community darling from last year historically speaking. Let me explain.
4:04
So with the, with the Chiefs, the Chiefs end up winning, uh, the Super Bowl ye- last year back-to-back.
4:09
By the way, history of the NFL for those who, uh, are, love these kinds of things, um, back-to-back in the Super Bowl era, Green Bay Super Bowls One and Two, Miami Super Bowls VII and VIII, Pittsburgh IX and X and XII and XIII, Niners XXIII and XXIV, Cowboys XXVII and XXVIII, Broncos XXXII and XXXIII, Patriot Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX, and then these Chiefs.
4:31
So this is, what? That's the ninth occurrence of back-to-back. None of the previous eight have ever gotten back to the Super Bowl. I- Have never gotten back to the big game, as they call it. The big game.
4:42
[laughs] Don't, don't worry. We don't have to worry about that till, like- No... late January. I'm sorry. That's right. You're right.
4:46
[laughs] Uh, so the Chiefs, uh, last year win the Super Bowl while enduring all of the following. Um, their wide receivers were just an absolute mess. Let's quantify that. What do I mean by that?
4:59
Uh, their, I, I talked about this on the Megapod. Their receivers, and that includes Travis Kelce at tight end and the running backs, dropped 35 passes last year, the most in the NFL.
5:10
Other sources place the drop total at 44. That's a pro football reference. Sports Info Solutions put it at 39. Either way, you get the idea. Yeah. They dropped a mess of passes last year.
5:23
Uh, they also fumbled the ball away nine times, the wide outs did.
5:29
Mahomes to Kelce to Tony, you will remember the most famous play involving Chiefs wide receivers last year pre-Super Bowl, the hook and lateral for a game-winning touchdown against the Bills that was eventually called back because of an illegal formation.
5:40
So the Chiefs overcame all of that. That is an unbelievable amount of drops and fumbles. Um, they also overcame the Taylor Swift distraction. Say what you will.
5:50
I'm not blaming Taylor Swift, but there's a big distraction on the field. Mm-hmm. They, uh, they overcame everything that Kadarius Toney was involved in off field.
5:57
They, they overcame, uh, the big contract dispute with Chris Jones now in the off season.
6:02
So this is a team that is You know, again, no matter what seems to go wrong, there's Patrick Mahomes to just defeat all other, you know, logic that would, uh, would torpedo other teams because he is the great Patrick Mahomes.
6:17
Now, in the case of the Ravens, let's take a place like, uh, FTN Sports where Aaron Schatz does his DVOA now. He, the founder of Football Outsiders where he first had DVOA. The Ravens were 13 and four last year.
6:30
Um, that was the best DVOA, his proprietary stat that's, it analyzes every single play, every down against league average. The fifth-best team in the history of the National Football League during the regular season.
6:42
The only teams that were better, Kelly, the 2010 Patriots, the '85 Bears, the '85 Super Bowl Shuffle Bears, the '91 Skins, greatest team of all time according to Aaron Schatz, the 2007 Patriots, which remember only lost an undefeated season in the Super Bowl itself, and, uh, that's it.
7:02
That's the list. Ravens of 2023 were the fifth-best all time according to DVOA.
7:08
So you have this Chiefs team that overcame everything because they have this unbelievable once in a generation quarterback, and you have the Ravens that over the course of a season, at least analytically speaking, were historically great, fifth-best against all of those great teams of all time.
7:22
And then what happens? The Ravens get to the playoffs and they play the Chiefs.
7:28
Um, Flowers, if you remember the details of that game, Flowers had the, Zay Flowers had the ball punched out while reaching for the end zone. Uh, Lamar threw an end zone pick in triple coverage.
7:38
Um, and then was at the end of the game, remember the, the thing that sealed it, Roquan Smith tried to do the, uh, the chess move by the final drive by, uh, picking up an offsides call to prevent a game icing first down, but he ran the play so well that he got called for unsportsmanlike or unnecessary roughness.
7:53
Mm-hmm. So that's how that ended.
7:54
Um, so with any great team like the Ravens, you lose players, you lose Clowney, Jadeveon Clowney, you lose Odell Beckham Jr., um, you lose Patrick Queen, you lose Geno Stone, and of course, you lose your great defensive coordinator, Mike McDonald, which had people coming from everywhere in that defense, even though they actually only rushed for or fewer 80% of the time, but it was the disguise that made his defense so great.
8:17
He's taken that to Seattle now. What elements of that can the Ravens still execute properly is the big question. Um, who did the Ra- the Ravens, by the way, have done great in replacing many of those guys that left.
8:28
The biggest acquisition, of course, this year, uh, Derrick Henry in the backfield, and I've been in- intimately involved in the Ravens running back depth chart all off-season. Yes, you have.
8:38
[laughs] Uh, so it's Derrick Henry, Justice Hill, and now the fifth round draft pick Ali, uh, Rasheen Ali is the, uh, is the number three running back. So, um, that's what you have tonight essentially.
8:48
You have this, you know, this historical team in the Ravens coming off a historical season, let's put it that way. Still have John Harbaugh as a coach. Still 12 and four against the spread in openers.
8:59
Um, still should be respected as one of the great franchises in the National Football League, but it's against Patrick Mahomes, who's this otherworldly thing.
9:08
And so you put all that in the wash, and the spread is what the spread is, which is, you know, what, three points right now at this point. Yep.
9:15
And so that's your NFL opener, and quite frankly, I'll ask the question, if this were in a middle of a early slate of Sunday games, and it was Ravens three-point favorites over...
9:26
Excuse me, uh, Chiefs three-point favorites over the Ravens, would you have a bet on it? Yes. You would? I would, I would. I have a bet on it tonight. I did lay the two and a half with Kansas City. Um, it would...
9:36
It, it's, it's week one. I, it's not a massive bet or anything, but I did expect this to be, uh... I expected the Chiefs to be laying three, uh, maybe even three and a half on the other side here.
9:46
I think this is a Kansas City team. You talked a lot about the receivers, that they did upgrade in that position.
9:51
I think this is a Kansas City team that is a little bit better overall heading into this season from where they were at last year, which is crazy to say when they won a Super Bowl.
9:59
I, just br- we're gonna do our power rankings later, but it just brings it to the point of how can you doubt this team after what they did last year?
10:05
Winning a Super Bowl with that, the lack of production at the receiver position was just incredible. Um, so- But, but that's, but that's the question, right?
10:12
Do you take the team with the body of work, or do you take the team that could essentially, quote, you know, turn it on at any time with Mahomes in any one game?
10:20
Well, and the other thing to keep in mind, so a- a- look, I, I'm on Kansas City. I think the other thing to keep in mind is y- you talked about that, that AFC Championship game last year.
10:28
That was a very, very bold game plan that Baltimore entered that game with, where they d- essentially didn't hand the ball off. It was they wanted to test Kansas City through the air. Mm-hmm.
10:38
And it, it kinda backfired for the most part. [laughs] I'm very, I am a, I am very interested to see how Todd Monken addresses that tonight when they roll into Kansas City.
10:47
You would think there's a lot of pressure on him and kinda that coaching staff to, I, I mean, not make the same mistakes they did, I think, last year with that game plan.
10:56
So- Although you say that g- the, the biggest thing that made the Ravens historically great last year, at least during the regular season, was Greg Roman to Todd Monken, right? 'Cause Todd Monken at least instituted...
11:07
I mean, w- it, it didn't work against Kansas City, but the fact that he was able to spread the field and allow Lamar Jackson- Oh, totally. Yeah... to be great was the whole key to why they were great offensively. Mm-hmm.
11:16
Yeah, absolutely. I just think- Yeah... they, they've al- they were always more balanced than that. I mean, it was, like I've got it pulled up. I mean, it was Gus Edwards three carries, Zay Flowers two- Yeah...
11:25
Justice Hill three. Yeah. Like that's all they had from running backs- Abandonment... in that game. Yeah. Abandonment. With Derrick Henry in the mix, I'm very interested to see how that works this year.
11:32
Um, should be great. We'll get, uh, Zach Cohen's thoughts on the game momentarily, as well as his US Open thoughts, as he on the hood like I am today. Uh, we'll get to that on the other side.
11:43
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:45
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12:02
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12:36
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12:47
So you, you got the, uh, Chiefs minus two and a half today locked in already from earlier. Yeah, laying two and a half. Looking over some of the props right now, like, uh, player props.
12:56
I don't know if there's anything I'm gonna bet here, but, uh, minus 105 and, uh, for anytime touchdown for Isaiah Pacheco, minus 125 for Derrick Henry. That feels aggressive. I don't wanna... I don't...
13:07
I'm very intrigued to see how this Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson running game works. Like, that is... I think it's gonna be very different from what we've seen with the Ravens the past few years.
13:15
Minus t- 125 anytime touchdown Derrick Henry. Yeah. You feel like, you feel like that's aggressive? I feel like that's, uh, low for that guy. I, I do feel like it's aggressive- Yeah...
13:23
but only 'cause I haven't seen it yet. I, I, uh- Yeah. I don't know. I would rather take plus 215 on Lamar to s- to score one. Let's- Not just 'cause of the number.
13:30
I guess I think he'll, will be active with his legs, too.
13:32
I know the whole idea is that Derrick Henry now on the roster allows them to be more aggressive running the ball at the goal line and not use Lamar Jackson as much in those areas.
13:41
I think there might be a little value on that Lamar number, uh, here early in the season. We shall see. Let's find out where, uh, Zach Cohen falls on all this.
13:48
Zach Cohen comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, betting on X on Twitter for some, uh, tennis and football talk. Zach, how you doing, man? I'm doing well. How about you? Doing good.
13:58
What, uh, let us, uh, remind us, if you would, uh, where you stand on this game, where your bets are tonight. I, I like the Chiefs minus two and a half, so I'm with Kelly there.
14:07
I think the Ravens are breaking in a new defensive coordinator. Uh, they also lost Adavion Claudia and Patrick Queen. So last year's, you know, top defense going to look a little bit different.
14:17
It's also a defense that really struggled to contain Travis Kelce last year, so losing some talent in the middle of the field and losing your play caller could hurt a little bit there.
14:24
So if we're looking at a player prop, I think I mentioned it on the show Tuesday, I like over 56 and a half receiving yards for Kelce.
14:30
He went over in nine of his 15 regular season games last year, went over in all the playoff games last year. Uh, went way over [laughs] when he played against the Ravens in the playoffs last season.
14:39
Do either of those two props we just brought up, I don't know if you heard, uh, Derrick Henry minus 125 anytime touchdown, and what was the other one? Lamar? Lamar was plus 215. Any, either of those interest you at all?
14:51
I think I'd be more interested in the Lamar one than the Henry one. I just would be surprised if they get all the way down there and they don't run some type of fake where they get Lamar going outside. All right.
15:00
So- Yeah, read option or something. I- Yeah... I just think there's a lot there that that feels like, that feels like a pretty big number. I'm interested to see with the Kelce stuff.
15:07
Like, week one I think that's no problem, Zach. I am interested to see how much they dial back and try to save his legs as the season goes on.
15:14
You've heard a lot of those reports kinda through the off-season, that they're trying to, you know, dial back a little bit his usage.
15:20
I don't think we're gonna see that night one, but it'll be interesting to keep our eye on here through the season. What beyond tonight did you bet, Zach? Uh, I have the Eagles minus two and a half against the Packers.
15:29
I get that at minus two now. I know that you're not very high on Philly this year, but it's actually a, a kind of a combination of me being high on Philly, not as high on others on G- as on Green Bay.
15:38
I think that the Eagles are going to look a lot more like the football team they looked like early last season. I think that they're going to get back to being top five or so in offense.
15:46
I think they're gonna be league average defensively. So I think that that's a game where I kinda trust them to get the job done.
15:51
I think that a Vic Fangio defense matches up very well with a Packers team that wants to throw the ball deep, because Fangio's not going to let his corners get beat over the top.
15:59
And then I also like, uh, under 42 in Steelers-Falcons, which is, you know, n- nothing bold there. I think Pittsburgh, we saw them in the pre-season, they could not score.
16:09
Uh, I do not have a lot of faith in Russell Wilson leading that offense, which is sad for me as a Wisconsin, you know, alum.
16:15
I really like to see Russell succeed, and I think that the Falcons with, uh, Cousins coming back off an Achilles, playing with a defensive-minded head coach, I don't see them going crazy in that game either.
16:24
That is a, that has become a very popular pick, the under in the Steelers-Falcons game. Are you in Survivor at all? Are you playing Survivor? I'm playing Survivor on my own. I'm not in the circus Survivor. Okay.
16:35
[laughs] Would you like to share with us what you're thinking for Survivor, for your non-circus pool? I, I'm go- I'm going with, I, I'm going with the Bengals. I, I, I, it's, you know, it's, it's lame.
16:43
I know everyone's going to take them, but I don't wanna be out in week one. I think that that's the safest play.
16:47
By the way, I'm, I'm not as high on the Eagles, um, but I do like them against the Packers, and I, I have always said about the Eagles, even though I'm not high on them, I still expect them to win the division.
16:56
I do think there is a, there is a scenario where if they don't play well in the early part of the season, though, Nick Sirianni is toast. With two new offensive...
17:05
Oh, excuse me, with a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator in Moore and Fangio, I think that scenario exists for Sirianni. Um, okay. Yeah. United States Open tennis.
17:16
Uh, you have Pegula winning it all, right? Yep. I have Pegula winning it all at 12 to one.
17:22
So, a tough match-up coming up here, especially because I, I, I kinda like Pegula to win again, and I've had a lot of, you know, failures so far this tournament where I'm picking the player that I have at a future at a singles match.
17:34
But I, I do think she's gonna beat Muchova. Uh, they played against one another in Cincinnati. I know that those conditions are a little different. Uh, Muchova joked that they played in a parking lot.
17:43
But I thought that that was a match that really lined up well for Muchova to win. It was, uh, you know, Pegula coming off a 1,000 level win. Nobody would've blamed her for going out early in that match.
17:53
Uh, she played a pretty lousy first set, dropped that first one, but from there she kinda ran away with it.
17:58
And I know that Muchova's playing a lot better in New York, but I just think that Pegula, the way that she's playing, I... She looks like a top player in the world to me. I think she kinda always has.
18:07
It's just one of those, you know, best player without a major thing. So I think that this is a really good opportunity for her to get to the final. Uh, I would have to look into doing something with the Sabalenka one.
18:16
Uh, I don't think she's going to beat her, but- Yeah, but, but happy to have the ticket at this point Remarkably consistent numbers over time for Jessie Pegula. Absolutely give, give her that for sure.
18:26
Um, $7.5 billion dollar hei- uh, heiress, uh, Kelly, in case you were scoring at home.
18:31
Well, you know, I was, I was sorry to see your, uh, your Eagle ticket go down, but I don't know if you caught the, the video last week about her having to take the subway over to the US Open. Jessie Pegula?
18:42
Yeah, Jessie Pegula. Yeah, I felt bad for her. And, and it kinda broke my heart, 'cause I'm like, what... You know, she really needs a private helicopter to get there, get her there.
18:50
So hopefully as she racks up these wins, we can get her that helicopter- Yeah... and she doesn't have to worry about the subway. She's, she's really roughing it right there. Yeah, really roughing. It's tough to watch.
18:58
Yeah, you have in two semifinalists, again, a $7.5 billion dollar heiress in Pegula and a $1.5 billion dollar heiress in Navarro. [laughs] And yet these two girls, I'm serious, this is phen- I think it's phenomenal.
19:08
It's incredible. These two girls, who didn't have to do anything in life, have become, in Jessie's case, a top five player, and in Navarro's case, a top 20 player, probably will get to the top 10. It's unbelievable.
19:20
It's an incredible story. I, I'm on your side with this, by the way, and I've got in so many arguments about it.
19:24
I think that it's impressive to, you know, have the drive to be a top something in the world when you don't have to be. So I, I know that there's the other, the end of the coin where they don't have resources.
19:33
It's hard to get out when you don't, but it, it says something about their work ethic. Absolutely. Well, the, what's the counterargument? The counterargument is, "Oh, they have all the advantages." Yeah.
19:41
"They get country clubs and all this." Yeah, but there's a million other people that have that, too. That's incredible that they're able to be this skilled. Yep. Uh, okay, any college football this weekend, by the way?
19:51
I have Oregon minus 19 against Boise State. I, I think that that Oregon team, uh, really played a lot better than the score suggested against Idaho.
20:00
Uh, Gabriel threw for nearly 400 yards, uh, didn't throw an interception, had two touchdowns. They were marching down the field and just making a lot of mistakes in opponent's territory.
20:08
I think that they're gonna figure it out this week. I think that Will Stein's one of the best offensive coordinators in the nation.
20:12
I think that Gabriel, you know, is gonna be more comfortable in his second week with the Ducks.
20:16
So I think that that's gonna be a game where Oregon's gonna hang a really big number on Boise State, and I think defensively they're gonna know what to do with Ashton Gente.
20:24
Like, they can throw bodies in the box and not worry about, you know, Maddock Madsen beating them over the top. I don't think that Boise State has the best quarterback play in the world.
20:32
So I think that the, you know, Oregon's gonna be aggressive about trying to stop Gente from just shredding them on the ground the way he did last week, uh, in that game.
20:40
One of the most ridiculous college performances you'll see. But I, I think as long as you're laying, you know, anything less than 21, I'd be pretty, you know, happy grabbing Oregon.
20:49
Gente, six touchdowns last week, 13.35 yards a carry. Not too shabby. All right, uh, Kelly and I are about to do our AFC and NFC, uh, conference rankings. We're gonna go 10 deep in each conference.
21:01
Um, so I ask you here before the season starts, and we just, I just laid it out with the Ravens and the Chiefs that...
21:07
And even the most, by the way, even these analytics, you know, pro football guides this off-season, even if their numbers keep showing Ravens and Niners specifically better than the Chiefs, they all then have the sentence, "Yeah, but, like, we thought this last year, too, and then Patrick Mahomes comes marching in."
21:24
And so, like, even our numbers, our hearts kind of override our numbers. So if I just ask you the basic question here before the season starts, wanna get you on record, who is in the Super Bowl this year, Zach Cohen?
21:35
I, I think it's going to be Chiefs and Niners. I, I don't know how it's gonna work out. It's really boring to pick the two from last year, but I'm kinda with everybody.
21:42
Like, I, I had the Ravens last year, and I just don't really wanna go against Mahomes again. Uh, 49ers are a worse team than they were last year, but I still think good enough to represent the NFC.
21:52
Uh, if I wasn't going with the 49ers I'd probably say Eagles, but I, I think I feel a little bit better about the 49ers getting there, and I do think that they're gonna win it if they do.
21:59
I, I think that, you know, the last couple of losses will be enough [laughs] for them to get over the hump now. It's just kind of a...
22:05
I've, I've said it before on here, you give yourself enough bites at the apple, you're eventually gonna break through. I think that Shanahan gets a lot of flack for his post-season coaching. He's gonna figure it out.
22:13
If I took the Chiefs and Niners off the board, who wins it? I, I think I'd go with the Eagles. I, I st- I think that Philly has the potential to be really good this year.
22:23
Uh, there's definitely some, you know, potential disaster there, but I, yeah, I'm kinda with you with, like, I think that Sirianni's kind of on the hot seat just because they're a really aggressive front office, and we saw what they did with Doug Pederson.
22:34
But I do think that the talent is there, and I think the coaching will be a lot better with the new coordinators. All right. Lot of Lions backers out there, Jets backers. Gonna be an awesome season. Zach Cohen.
22:42
Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it, man. Good luck on Jessie. Thanks, guys. Even though I'm on Mahoa. Conference rankings next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. SportTrade, minus 104. They used to be an exchange, by the way. Now they're just really kind of like a low vig sports book.
23:53
That's the way to go. Minus 104. Just, uh, just catching up on my email, too. Just got a, uh, email from Alex Kane about 30 minutes ago. He'll be joining the show 7:30 Pacific time next Friday. Next Friday. Next Friday.
24:05
All right. Eight days from now. We like having Alex on. Yeah.
24:07
I mean, they got, like you, like you just mentioned, there's a lot of exciting things going on for them right now, so I know they're kinda trying to wrap up a couple things, wanna come in next week and ha- have some announcements for us.
24:16
I did a, uh, panel with Billy Walters on it.
24:18
Spanky was kind enough to have me moderate the panel at Bet Bash with Billy Walters, and Alex Kane was on the panel as well, and he sort of commanded the room more than even Billy did. Really? Dare I say.
24:28
Well, when you got hair like that, you c- Yeah, yeah... you command everybody's attention. Come on. Yeah. He's also, like, 6'4" or something like that. Oh, one of those sneaky tall guys, too? Yeah. Yeah.
24:36
I was like, "Dude." Really? Spurs, sneaky tall, yep. All right. Conference rankings. Plug it in. [machine roaring] 103.1 The Bone. [laughs] Did we come up with different ones every time or no?
24:52
That'll, that'll never, that'll never get old. [laughs] I keep, I keep mixing up the frequency, though. Yeah, you do. Yeah. 103.1 The Buzz. That was the one down in West Palm Beach. Oh, The Buzz? Yeah. Yeah.
25:00
The Bone, very popular in San Francisco for so many years. Uh, what am I doing? I'm doing first, AFC power rankings? Yeah, we'll g- we'll go you first. We'll do AFC and then NFC. Yep. Okay.
25:08
Uh, let's start from one going down to 10 because now remember, when we go 10 deep on conferences, we're essentially getting into the, the, the nether regions, if you will, of a conference. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
25:19
Wait, wait, can I, can I ask you a question before we even start this real quick? Yes, sir. Super Bowl...
25:23
Like, I don't think either you or I are the type to often make a to win the Super Bowl bet before the season, or if we have- Not often... it's been pretty sparingly over- Yeah... the past five years.
25:35
I feel like this year, that is even tougher to do, especially after this exercise yesterday, where I'm like, "I, I don't know.
25:41
I'm not super confident in any one team [laughs] winning either one of these conferences- Well-... much less the Super Bowl."
25:47
I keep getting back to the same point, so I, I apologize for being redundant on this, but when you have Mahomes- I- it's, yes... it is the life hack of this, right? Right. Yeah.
25:56
So it's sorta like y- all your numbers can say one thing, but then he'll just come sauntering in, and he'll throw the ball from his hip, you know, if it goes key time of a game.
26:05
Or w- I, I mean, as we roll into yours, like, how is it, like, how is it po- not possible to have them number one? Like, it- It is not possible... it, it's not. Uh, not for me anyway.
26:12
I have the Chiefs at number one in the AFC. I got the Bengals, as Matt Brown says, the Bengals, uh, at number two.
26:18
This is because Joe Burrow is the only person to have shown himself to be a Chiefs killer, and until that's proven otherwise, and by the way, obviously, the rest of his career has been hampered by injuries, I've got the Bengals at number two.
26:31
The Ravens, uh, they deserve number three because of their body of work. I get it, no Mike McDonald, but, uh, they were good before Mike McDonald as well, and they, they deserve that kind of street cred credit here.
26:44
Uh, the street credit. Ravens at three. Jets are four. I actually think the Jets are the team to watch this year.
26:51
That is a commonly held opinion, but that defense was sick last year when they had horrific quarterback play.
26:58
Now, if you can get some modicum of a perfo- of a performance from Aaron Rodgers off the Achilles, they are number four.
27:04
Again, the Williams brothers and Sauce on that defense at every level is just spectacular, and I think Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson just go nuts this year. Jets at four. Texans at five. C.J.
27:14
Stroud is just everything that we saw. I don't think it was a rookie... I don't think we'll see a sophomore slump. I really don't. Me either.
27:22
I think he's that cerebral of a quarterback as well as having the physical skills. I got the Texans at five. Dolphins are a bully, right? They're a team that will crush, like they did last year.
27:31
The Dolphins and the Cowboys are the same team. They're bullies. They crush teams that are far worse than them, and they get punched in the mouth when someone their own size picks on them.
27:39
But I got the Dolphins right now at number six, 'cause that offense still has the greatness of Waddle and Tyreek, uh, Mostert in the backfield as well, and A-Chan, so they are as fast as could be. Dolphins at six.
27:50
Browns, the jury's out. Mm-hmm. But I'll give them seven because they ought to be able to grind their way.
27:56
Now, remember, when we get to seven or eight in the conference, we're actually talking about a middling team in the conference. This is the spot, can you get into the playoffs or not? Right. This is the make- So-...
28:05
this playoff spot. Yeah... by doing it by conference, it sort of throws off your, your, you know, you're a little off-kilter with it. So the Browns at seven is can they make the playoffs or not? The Jaguars get eight.
28:16
Trevor Lawrence, what's it gonna be? You gonna fumble the ball season long or you gonna hold on to it? What's the story? Uh, they're number eight. I'm down on the Bills more than others.
28:25
I've got them at nine, and because there was really no other viable candidate- [laughs]... to put at 10, the Colts get 10. Um, yeah, we have the same 10- Yeah... 'cause I think I felt that way, too.
28:37
Like, I, like, no matter what you feel about the Colts, and, and, I mean, I don't even wanna say that.
28:42
I'm not, I'm higher on them than most 'cause I think there are some people o- uh, here- You're higher on Anthony Richardson than most. Uh, exactly. Yes. I'm higher on Anthony Richardson. Yeah. But I felt the same way.
28:51
Like, it's, it's them and 10 and those top 10, and then it felt like a pretty drastic drop-off from there to me.
28:56
Well, when, when we did the, uh, you know, the preview of every team this year, the Colts, I mean, the Colts season comes down to him and him alone. Chris Ballard basically did nothing in the off season. Yeah.
29:05
So it's like how good or bad is Anthony Richardson gonna be? Yeah, it, it really is that. Yeah. I, I would be higher on the Colts as a team if they had done more in the off season, right? Yeah.
29:13
And I know there are some smart people saying, "Okay, well, i- if they didn't go out and make those moves that they kinda needed to, it tells you a little bit about where Anthony Richardson's really at, and he's not progressed far enough."
29:24
Seems, seems like you already lied to us, Kelly. You have the Colts at nine. No, I d- but same top 10. Oh, I see. Just in different order as usual. Oh, I thought you said Colts at 10. I'm sorry.
29:32
So right at the top it's different. I mean, Chiefs we got number one. We share that. Gil, the longer and longer we've talked about the New York Jets- Oh, yeah... like, they- They could've been two for me, too...
29:41
this two through six range is very, very difficult for me to order at this point, uh, w- we're heading into the season.
29:47
So I am gonna go Jets number two because I do think they have the most well-rounded roster of all those teams that we're talking about.
29:54
Now, Ravens are right there, so it's really hard for me to put them any further down than three. You had them at three, too. I think that's understandable.
30:01
They were a team I don't think I was willing to drop further than that. Uh, but I did put the Jets two, Ravens three. I went Texans four. Agree with everything you said. I think that pass rush is gonna be dangerous.
30:12
They have probably the best wide receiving corps in the league. C.J. Stroud I do not ta- expect to take a step back at all. Watch out for Houston.
30:19
I think it's another year that they're gonna be a strong, strong contender. Bengals number five for me. I have definitely cooled down a bit on them since we made those bets early- Mm-hmm...
30:28
and we've got this whole Jahmyr Chase thing going still. We'll see, but w- a healthy Joe Burrow, like you said, we've seen him actually challenge the Chiefs. Then the Bills at six, uh, for me with Josh Allen.
30:39
Uh, Bro- these ones were tough, then the next two. Browns, Dolphins. Did you have the... You had Dolphins up a little bit higher? Yeah, you and I are a little different on the Bill- 'Cause you had Bills down...
30:47
Bills, the Dolphins, yeah. That's why. You had Bills down, yeah. So Browns, Dolphins, I'll flip a coin to b- like you said, Browns may be the toughest team for me to figure out as we're heading into the season.
30:55
How, how good is this offense going to be? How good is Deshaun Watson really going to be? Big question for me. Dolphins, can they replicate the high level of success they had on offense last year?
31:05
And how bad is this defense gonna be? 'Cause I do have concerns. And then I have Colts and Jaguars filling it out. I think one of those two teams, wouldn't be surprised to see them make the playoffs.
31:13
So it, it occurs to me that some people listening are gonna be like, "Why do you guys do power rankings? Like, who cares what your power rankings are?"
31:18
What power rankings do, whether you do them mathematically or just off the cuff, they should be able to give you guardrails from week to week and, and prevent recency bias.
31:27
So if you have a one to 10 as, uh, one through 10 as, as we have just outlined, whatever your one through 10 is, if a team at four has a horrible performance, they shouldn't fall all the way to 10.
31:37
It should help you keep in mind what their true sort of rank is.
31:40
Now, over time, if they have three bad performances in a row, whatever, they should fall accordingly, but this just gives you some sort of guideline to go from week to week. Here's the NFC version of this.
31:49
I got the Niners at one. Uh, as low, [laughs] as low as I am on the Eagles compared to the, uh, conventional wisdom, I still got them at two. I got the Lions at three. I love Jordan Love. Maybe there's a...
32:00
Maybe he, the Packers are higher here because of a small sample size. I can concede that, but as of now, I believe in Jordan Love. He's number four. Uh, he's not number four, the Packers are. Cowboys are at five.
32:11
They're the bully. They're the Dolphins' equivalent. Rams with Matthew Stafford still at the helm have got to be number six.
32:17
Seahawks with Mike McDonald as the defensive coordinator are number seven to me, and again, this is where you get into will they make the playoffs or not.
32:23
I got the AFC South best, Falcons, at eight, but only eight, and then nine and 10 were just a ridiculous exercise.
32:31
[laughs] I w- I happened to go Cardinals and Saints, but honestly, if you threw in Washington or whomever, I wouldn't have an argument with you. Uh, yeah.
32:40
Real quick, so at the top, like, this is all, like, NFC's just tough for me. Like- Yeah... I think there are three teams kinda that stand alone.
32:46
I went Eagles, Lions, Niners, but I, I, y- I'm not gonna argue with anybody who wants to, wants to switch around any of those three teams, uh, to put as number one.
32:56
Um, I, I, I am high on the Eagles this year, though, so I'm putting them as my number one team in the NFC. Cowboys, we, I feel like we've come around to this conversation the past week.
33:04
I, I just think people are, people are maybe, uh, just, uh, n- you know, not seeing them at, like, the team they were last year, and I know they played a bunch of bully ball, too.
33:13
I think we're expecting a big drop from this team that I'm not fully expecting. I got Seahawks number five. I think that's the surprise one, Gil. I do expect big things out of Seattle this year.
33:22
I got Seahawks five, Packers six, Rams seven, Falcons eight. As much as I got bets on Falcons in that division- You and me both eight. Yeah... but where do they stand in the conference?
33:30
I still think it's around that number. Cardinals nine for me. They were definitely gonna be my top 10. And Bears? Sure, Bears. Nine and 10 is just ridiculous. Just ridiculous.
33:39
The Larceny Bourbon Smooth Bet of the Week next on the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa right here in downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Vidalin, and it's time for the Smooth Bet of the Week, presented by Larceny Wheated Bourbon.
34:08
[upbeat music] Oh, yeah. Lock in a win and seize the night. Bardstown, Kentucky. 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely. It's your Smooth Bet of the Week from Larceny Bourbon. Kelly?
34:23
Getting thirsty over here, Gil. I'm getting thirsty. Is that the o- I see glasses. I see a bottle of bourbon in front of me. Is thirsty your overriding emotion when you say that? Is that what it's about? Thirst?
34:33
Well, I mean, I'd li- I'd like to taste it, you know? I- Okay... I need a little, just a, a, just a little taste. Little taste. Bourbon- Yeah... in the morning? Yeah, [laughs] a little bourbon in the morning. All right.
34:41
I mean, come on, it's 7:45, uh, AM in Las Vegas. It's party time, baby. I endorse it. Please drink responsibly, of course. Um, our Smooth Bet of the Week from Larceny Bourbon- Mm-hmm...
34:52
is the Arizona Cardinals plus the points against the Buffalo Bills. How do you like that? We both are on this, right? Well, and usually I, you know, w- w- it's Gil's show.
35:01
We're usually gonna design this around Gil's bet, your favorite bet, but I figured we might as well pick the one that we actually match up on this week- Sure... so we both talk through it. Sure.
35:10
Um, mine comes to, really based on the fact that, [clears throat] pardon me, I, I think the Buffalo Bills, again, if you've listened to this show throughout the off-season, I don't think the Bills are making the playoffs this year.
35:21
They're, again, you, there's seven spots, and somebody's missing it, and I think this is the year that the Bills do.
35:27
I think the proverbial window has shut, or at least has closed enough that this is not gonna happen anymore. Josh Allen has worked miracles.
35:35
I think the absence of Stefon Diggs, as I said many times, while, while there are many who will look away at that, I think it's an actual big deal. He spread the field. Mm-hmm.
35:44
It allowed for Josh Allen to use his tight ends, whether it's Dawson Knox, whether it's Dalton Kincaid over time, uh, to maximum usage, and now you have an issue where you have a, a bunch of wide outs who do not really spread the field.
35:58
Their answer for this, by the way, the Bills were well aware of this aspect of losing Stefon Diggs, and I get it. If you lose Stefon Diggs, you know, I, I understand why they had to.
36:06
Stefon Diggs was upset because he just wasn't getting targeted in the same way that he had been, uh, prior to, uh, prior to his, you know, days in Minnesota.
36:16
Although, to be honest with you, the stats don't bear that out. That's more his impression than it is actual reality, but nonetheless, he's gone. Yeah.
36:25
And so the Bill's, uh, response to this was, "Let's get Marquez Valdes-Scantling."
36:29
Doesn't scare anybody, and the issue is they also have guys like Keon Coleman, who does not, for all of his, you know, 50/50 catches that he was able to get at FSU, he is not a guy who spreads the field. Right, yeah.
36:40
Um, and so, uh, I just believe Josh Allen has to be more of a Superman than ever, and in a stacked AFC, even a stacked division, right? Which already includes the Jets now with Aaron Rodgers and the Dolphins.
36:52
I don't think they're gonna be as good as we remember them this year, and I think on the flip side, I think the Cardinals with Kyler Murray are not as bad as one remembers them to be when he is healthy behind center.
37:04
And so I think your North Star in week one is give me as many points as possible- Mm-hmm... in any of these games. I got the Cardinals plus six. We're showing six and a half. Give me the points.
37:14
Yeah, I'm w- I'm with you all the way around, and I think it's gonna be really interesting to see how Buffalo comes out offensively this year, because like you talked about, I think we are expecting to see...
37:22
They tried this last year, but they had to deal with some injuries, so it wasn't something you're able to lean on as much. But you're gonna see two tight ends a lot.
37:29
Some of those wide receivers, I think you get a key on Coleman because you're hoping to match up a big body wide receiver with single coverage, and hopefully that works out.
37:37
I think we're gonna see a lot of running b- r- uh, running game fr- from the Bills, at least early in the season as this offense develops.
37:43
So that, that might already slow down their tempo, kinda slow down what they're able to do offensively. And look, the Cardinals are gonna give up a lot of points. Oh, yeah. A lot of points.
37:53
But that offense with Kyler Murray, James Conner been on the field together end of last year, very efficient offense, uh, very dangerous.
38:00
You add Marvin Harrison to the wide receiving corps, I think this offense is gonna be a top 10 offense in the NFL. And when you're...
38:06
I think when you're talking dogs in week one especially, Gil, talking the over, so six points, over six points, uh, with the Cards, with a team, that offense is always gonna be able to kinda keep them around and in that game, give me that week one.
38:18
I li- I like that, this bet a lot this week. Let me just back up some of the stuff I was saying about the wide receivers. Khalil Shakir, 4.4 speed, but his ADOT, which is average depth of target- Mm-hmm...
38:28
an advanced stat that people like to throw around, uh, under 10 yards in each of the last two years, and it was lower last year when he had the expanded role, um, as compared to his 2022 season.
38:38
And then Keon Coleman, as I mentioned, at Florida State, his ADOT, his average depth of target, 201st among qualifying receivers in the nation in college football.
38:47
By the way, Curtis Samuel is also rostered as a wide receiver. And for those of us who have rooted for teams that have had Curtis Samuel on, no one has ever mistaken him for a guy who spreads the field.
38:57
So that's the story. And then there's Marquez Valdes-Scantling, that's their answer to this question.
39:01
So the Arizona Cardinals, ladies and gentlemen, plus the points against the Bills, are your Larceny Bourbon smooth bet of the week. In order to have a nightcap, you need to have a night first.
39:10
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39:18
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39:28
Find a bottle near you at larcenybourbon.com and seize tonight. A numbers game brought to you by Larceny Burby. Uh, Larceny Bourbon, pardon me. Bardstown, Kentucky, 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely.
39:41
There you go, Kelly. That's our smooth bet of the week. Like it, I like it. I think we're both on it. What happens to, what happens to that bourbon now after the show? What happens?
39:47
Oh, Dar, if you don't think I already asked Miles about that- Oh... I was like, "So I'm assuming I'm just taking this home with me." And he's like, "No, we need other shows to promote it." I'm like, "All right." Oh.
39:55
"I know." Oh, we don't get our own bottle. Yeah, no, no. Okay. All right. Just curious. Uh, you- I got a thermos, though. [laughs] I got a thermos, too, as a matter of fact.
40:03
We, we, we got a thermos, so thanks, Larceny Bourbon. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, you were very kind in some of the questions you were asking me about said thermos. I won't get into those on, on air.
40:10
Um, baseball update for the month of September. I have the Diamondbacks 25 to one. Uh, I'm curious to see what, uh, teams have been selected by our loyal numbers game listeners for the month of September.
40:22
Most wins, a market that we have bet into every single month, the sixth month now. Yes, that's how long a baseball season is. Baseball regular season, six months of your calendar year.
40:32
The New York Metropolitans are in the early lead at 4-0. Look at that. 22. Uh, by the way, it's twen- the, the number on the, uh, far right, I'm sorry, is games left, uh, in this month.
40:45
So obviously, tons of games left to go. Too crazy about any of this. The Mets are 4-0. Uh, the Reds, Padres, and Phillies are all 3-0.
40:53
And then you got the Orioles, Guardians, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Rangers all with three wins, and then you see the run differential there in the middle.
41:02
Um, that is how, again, with, i- if you did this at Circa, the tiebreaker is fewest wins followed by best run differential. If you do this at William Hill Caesars, it is a dead heat.
41:14
The, the run differential stuff, whenever we look at these early in the month too, it, they're- Oh. It's always kind of amazing. You get, like, 3-1, but you're plus 17 in run differential, like that is, uh- Or-...
41:25
that's pretty impressive. You had a couple big games... or you're 3-1 and you're plus five, right? Yeah, right, [laughs] that's what I was talking about. So, yeah.
41:30
Um, as far as Major League most wins, I also have the Diamondbacks in this market. Uh, Diamondbacks did win yesterday, Dodgers lost, so they're within five again.
41:38
Dodgers are the best team in baseball, 84 and 56, but there are two National League teams right behind them.
41:43
The Phillies are a half game behind them at 83 and 56, um, with, you know, again, three plus weeks left in the Major League Baseball season.
41:51
The Brewers 81 and 59 right after them, and then you have the dance that the Orioles and Yankees have done all season long. These two teams are just magnetized to each other. The Orioles are 81 and 60.
42:05
The Yankees are 80 and 60. Flip a coin at this point between these two teams. It's just 140 games in, they've never seemed to be far away from each other at any point.
42:15
And then the Guardians, give the Guardians credit at- Yeah... 80 and 60.
42:18
They have, it appears that they have, even though they lost yesterday finally to the Royals, it appears as though for now, and again, three and a half weeks left, three, three weeks and some change, the Guardians have fended off the Twins and the Royals.
42:30
Now, they do have four game, they have a four-game set later this month with the Twins, but they're done with the Royals. That's it. We- we- were they the lowest win total on this board of these teams?
42:41
Uh, no, I think the Padres were. Oh, okay. The Padres were 81 or 80 and a half. Remember, that was my favorite season win total- Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah... for the whole season. Guardians had a higher one though?
42:50
The, the Padres are 80 and 61, meaning they need to win either one or two ball games, depending on where you got the number, for us to have already cashed that bet with three plus weeks left in the season.
43:01
I think you'll be okay. I think. I think we're gonna be okay. Uh, the Cubbies, uh, are the, was the second worst, and that, that's trending towards it, but we'll see if we can get the Cubbies home as well.
43:10
They were 84 and a half. By the way, the Diamondbacks close out that list of the top eight records in baseball, the Diamondbacks five behind the Dodgers now at 79 and 61.
43:20
So that's gonna be an amazing race, 'cause you have- It's insane... eight teams within five games of each other.
43:25
Now, we first started tra- I mean, we're tracking, but we first started bringing this up on the show regularly, what was it, two weeks ago, something like that? Yeah, yeah.
43:31
Like, I mean, historically, where does this stand up, stack up with, like, tight races down to the stretch for the most wins just overall?
43:39
Pretty, pretty tight because we're not going to get a team that even comes close to winning 100. Right. So because of that, because the top is muted, 'cause what now?
43:48
The Dodgers are on pace for what, 95-ish, 96-ish, depending on what your projection is. That's, that's kind of different this year. Mm-hmm. And so because of that, you have this scrum, 'cause there's a lot of teams.
43:59
And then you, I mean, you look at other teams like the Orioles and, and Yankees, they just cannot gain any momentum- Yeah, yeah... right?
44:06
Um, and the Phillies and Brewers are, are, you know, there to, to, to take the title, if you will, MLB best record away from the Dodgers if they falter.
44:15
But I, I would say the Padres and Diamondbacks once again are the, uh, sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear on this. Eight deep, five games
44:23
separate the Dodgers from the Diamondbacks at the top of Major League Baseball for the best record market. We'll come back unscripted with the Crack Man Bill Krackinberger.
44:31
It's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network.
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