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Sep 5, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 5, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 5, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. Always grateful that you make us part of your morning.
0:19
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bittling, and the Crack Man standing by. We got tweets first @BTTheBook. Haven't read any tweets this morning.
0:25
Buddhist Man, "While this makes for a good subtle reminder to Crack Man not to go to the D this morning, perhaps a text or a phone call might be in order just in case." The text was sent. Crack is here momentarily.
0:36
Uh, let's see, this is from- Gil did his job last night. I did. Crane Pool, um, oh, someone walking into Circa for the first time. He, uh, relates it to the Seinfeld episode, the Terry Hatcher episode, uh, Terry Hatcher.
0:49
Terry Hatcher, is that her name? Episode where she says, "They're real and they're spectacular." Circa is real and it is spectacular, I can promise you that. This is, uh, let's see, from- Yeah, Terry Hatcher.
0:58
That was her. Let's see. Oh, Prime Time, Cowboys_Cubs1, "Muhova paid 150 to 1 for the quarter at BetOnline as well, sources confirm." What? "Was only available for a few minutes before settling at nine to one."
1:13
That has to be a mistake. Had to be the extra zero. It has to be a, but it's two books, so maybe it wasn't a mistake, but, like, how is that possible? No, good point. Right. How is- Two, two, two books makes that weird.
1:23
That's, uh, wow. Um, Montreal Max letting us know that our picture is crystal clear this morning. Uh, Sa- We got a great crew... Sam @Swest96, uh, he says, "I'd love to get your updated view on Iga.
1:33
I don't wanna be seen as the Iga hater, but at what point do the fundamental results trump the data, again, outside of Clay? She's not a play anymore until something changes. Love to hear your thoughts."
1:41
This is, this is the Flicka theory, right? That she's been to, first of all, Flicka says, "Oh, she, besides Clay, she's only been to two, she's only won two quarters in 18 Slams."
1:51
So first of all, Flicka's, uh, wrong on his data.
1:54
It's, first of all, she's only played in 17 Slams, one didn't even occur, and then four of those other 17 were when she was 17 or 18 years old before anybody besides this show ever knew who she was.
2:04
So even if you take two of 13, right, let's just be clear about it, though. If you're gonna say something, let's be accurate. So two of 13 is what that is.
2:12
But I ask you, and this gets back to the whole Ravens thing, are you more interested in the Ravens body of work from last year and all the years, or the Patrick Mahomes hack thing? Like, what's...
2:22
We, we used to talk about the Triple Crown, right? Between Affirmed winning it in 1978 and American Pharoah winning it in 2015, everybody always said, "Oh, no one's won a Triple Crown in 34 years, in 35 years."
2:34
And I always used to say, "Yeah, but there's been so many close calls. What's the more important stat?"
2:39
So when it comes to Iga, I ask you, is this a more important stat or is it more important that she's won five Slams, um, she's won a US Open, she's won 10 1000's, which is essentially Slam field, but not, uh, not with the, uh, the sort of, uh, you know, what's the recognition of a Slam.
3:01
Uh, six of those were hardcourt. She won a WTA finals, which is hardcourt.
3:04
So I sort of ask you, like, are, i- is that, th- that's a, that's a sports mainstream narrative that people like to latch onto, when in fact the real data is that she is awesome.
3:16
Now, is she in her head way more than she needs to be? 100% I'm with you on that. But I just sort of say, he, he concluded his tweet this morning, Chris did, with that, by saying, "Betters should remember that."
3:25
No, betters should absolutely not remember that because that's exactly what's gonna take them off the scent of Iga. That's my viewpoint on that. And with that said, we'll read more tweets later.
3:35
It's time for unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Kragerburr. [upbeat music] Crack Man's- Here he comes... star jumps. Look at you. Good morning. How do you like this cozy desk?
3:54
I'm in the center. [laughs] I feel like a Oreo cookie. I said I feel like the- Awkward... a Double Stuf, the white- [laughs]... Double Stuf guy in the middle. Matter of fact, you, we're supposed to be on the outside.
4:05
You're supposed to be in the middle. Me? We're guarding our quarterback. You know- Yeah... you know that's what every, every, the people are very upset that I'm on this side. Well, yeah, let's ask Twitter.
4:12
Gil, let's ask Twitter. Yeah. They've, uh, they've all got opinions. They think I should be on that side. Oh. And now you're saying I should be in the middle for this. Well, thanks guys.
4:18
Nice to, uh, be part of this, and, um, I'm even hearing, uh, with this, all the big shakeups over here, I may even get my parking, uh, validated. Oh. All right. Do you have, do you have a pass to the secret Batcave?
4:30
Uh, no. I know where the Batcave is downstairs though. Yeah. Okay. You'll have, y'all, y'all have to show me that. But, uh, yeah, you know, this is, um...
4:38
I, I wrote down something this morning 'cause I, I have to write down things now 'cause I have so many things that, uh, little... You know, I'm, I'm a movie guy. We, we, we quote so many movie things. Mm-hmm.
4:45
So I'll start right out with the Rounders movie, which you gu- you guys have to know. Mm. It's gotta be in your top 20 movies I would think, 25, something like that. Um- Top 10...
4:54
at the sheriff's game, when they're at the sheriff's game in like, I don't know, Rochester or wherever they're at. Yep. Um, Worm says, "Wow, wow, wow. A lot of action." And that's exactly what's happening- [laughs]...
5:06
with this football. Wow. Wow. Wow. Here we are. Overlets, check, call, call, call, call. Yeah. There's lots of action.
5:13
Opening, opening day in the NFL and, um, I see a little bit of a major line move here moving, uh, as we get on air.
5:20
I see the, uh, the powers that be, uh, in the offshore worlds and moving Baltimore, Kansas City under to 46 and a half.
5:27
Probably, that's probably, you know, not, not, like, last year wasn't that the trend of the prime time games going under?
5:34
And I, I can see that probably for the Monday night game a little bit, little bit more than, uh, tonight's game. But I mean, I'm not, I'm not betting it anyway. I'm not betting under, but, uh, on tonight's game.
5:46
But I see, like, the San Fran game, 44, I would kind of lean to the under in that game more than tonight's prime time game. How many total bets do you have at week one going? Do you have any idea?
5:56
N- I didn't write them down, no. Yeah. I, I have a lot though. A lot. Yeah, yeah. I have a, a lot. I ask, I ask you this 'cause the first night I, the first time I ever met Crack- Mm...
6:03
we were watching a Monday night football game where the Pittsburgh Steelers were involved. This is more than 10 years ago. And, uh, I asked you that and I was like, "How many bets do you have on this one game?"
6:12
You go, "I have no idea." [laughs] 30, 40, I have no idea. Oh, well, well when it comes to the props and stuff- Yeah...
6:16
yeah, there'll, there'll be a, a, a bunch of bets, but the purpose of me saying about, wow, a lot of action is, um, I just put a tweet up on Twitter that, uh, saying that, you know, I, I know that everyone's gonna have, no matter what I tell them, you tell them, anyone say, everyone's gonna have, like, their bankrolls in action.
6:33
Like, literally- Yep... 100% of their bankrolls will be in action on Sunday. Ugh.
6:37
So it's, a- and I say bankrolls, I mean their, their gambling bankrolls, which for the hardcore guys that I grew up with back East, that's their entire bankroll. I mean, uh, you know, i- i- it's, everything goes.
6:50
The accounts are zeroed. Yeah. Everything- Yeah... everything goes in action. And, and, you know, it's, uh, it's, you get caught up. I mean, every network now is, gambling is fashionable.
6:58
You know, when VSIN's, when VSIN started up, they weren't talking about gambling on ESPN every day and, uh, you know, Fox, and all the different networks every day. Now it's fashionable.
7:07
Everyone's gambling, so, um- Yeah... you know, and, and, and the big sports books are behind it and, and, uh, you know, pushing some really bad bets on us. Uh, you know. [laughs] There's that. Yeah. Yeah.
7:19
Listen, w- Yeah... I, I, I'll not only use the big sports books, I'll use this town. I, I, you cannot bet a teaser in Las Vegas and tell me you're a profitable bettor if you're betting in Las Vegas teasers.
7:32
Because the juice is too high. They've priced us out of the market. Yeah. What's the average ju- what's the average juice price on a two team, six, uh, excuse me, a two team, six point teaser now? Here in town it's 130.
7:42
And it used to be even money back in the day. I c- I, I bet even money teasers at five different shops for
7:49
at least five years, maybe more, uh, back in late '90s, early 2000s, and, uh, I still have, you know, I still have some shops that I can, I could find that are 120 or less, 120 or maybe a couple.
8:03
I had Randy McKay on my podcast yesterday, which he's gonna be on every week by the way, giving out his NFL picks. Oh, nice. Oh, nice. Yeah, Randy's gonna be on at the end.
8:10
He had a gig last year somewhere back East and, and, uh, he said he, I went to dinner with him last week, and he's, he, he said he's not doing that anymore.
8:18
I said, "Randy, why don't you come on about, on, on the end of my podcast for 10 or 15 minutes every week and, uh, give out some plays." And plays did he give out.
8:28
I never expec- I figured he would come on slow the first week, we'd talk a little bit. No, Randy gave out like a [laughs] he gave out like five pl- six plays. Really? Yes. He gave out teasers.
8:37
He gave out, like, teasers galore, but Randy's laying a $1.10 on a six point teaser, so. Randy has time in between, uh, manipulating s- uh, you know, slot machines. Slots. Yeah. [laughs] Manipulating slot machines. Yeah.
8:47
By the way, the, the name of- I would've, I would've expected what Bill did. I would've th- I would've thought Randy was like, "Oh, two bets maybe the other half." [laughs] No, he had, I think he had like six.
8:54
I hate the- Oh... I hate to quote his games without, uh, knowing. Yeah, kind of. You could, uh, just check out, uh, wherever you get your podcasts there or on YouTube. Wisecracks. And, yeah, Wisecracks.
9:01
Wisecracks is the name of Bill's podcast. And it, it just, you know, the, the, we're, we're really a lifestyle podcast, very informative, but, um, his, his portion I think is gonna be very valuable.
9:12
Randy, Randy's a, a winning NFL, uh, player obviously. He, the guy's won countless contests in the NFL, college too, and we never wanna forget the 14 cars that he won. [laughs] Yeah, f- 14- 14... automobiles...
9:25
including this year- Yeah... at the M, which is, uh, Penn Gaming. You know, if you play so much you get a Mercedes lease for a year, so he's got, he has that going too. Put a quarter in and win a car.
9:36
Put a quarter in and win a car. Put a quarter in. Yeah. That's it. What was your, what was your first experience with Randy when you were at the last day of a super contest or something, Kelly?
9:42
Where you, you were watching him and he could, he was just- Oh, that was-... completely normal... yeah, that was down at the D.
9:47
We were doing a, we were doing a, a, uh, Sunday morning kickoff show, pregame show down there. It was m- myself and Mo Shaw, uh, and Adam Candy at the time, um, great little trio.
9:58
We were doing a little show, show at the D, and it was right outside of the McDonald's there. And like, we would often, we, we went right up to kickoff, right?
10:04
So a lot of, you know, we'd hang around and watch games at least the first half of the first games. Remember running into Randy [laughs] and it was, "Hey Randy, you know, how you doing?"
10:12
You, we run into him every few months, right? So catching up and it was, you know, "How you doing in contests? You got anything live?" And this was final day of the contest I think.
10:19
[laughs] And he's like, "Uh"- Oh, yeah... "well, yeah, you know, um, super contest gold's going pretty well. Like, I'm, I'm in second place right"... I'm like, "You're in second place in super contest gold?
10:29
Like, is there a chance to take home the big one?" He's like, "Yeah, there's a chance, but some things would have to go my way today." Little nodgle.
10:36
And I, and I'm like, in my head like, cross off the rest of my plans today.
10:40
I will be sitting right next to Randy as I see him sweat this out, and it was the coolest, calmest customer on the planet through the entire day, and- He did not end up winning... he didn't get there. Yeah.
10:49
Didn't get there, but you- Yeah... you wouldn't have noticed any change in his facial expression throughout the entire afternoon. Wisecracks with Bill Krackomberger, wherever podcasts are distributed.
10:58
Yeah, that, that, that'll, uh, that'll be fun to, uh, listen to that, him every week and his, uh, breakdowns of... He, he had a lot of teasers in his arsenal this week and I was surprised. Mm.
11:07
Green Bay, I remember Green Bay was one of them. Um, the Giants, which, uh, I'm actually on the, the other side of that game a little bit.
11:14
I'm doing some more sides this year 'cause, you know, I had some, uh, some, a little bit more edges. I see Minnesota went to two now at, uh, far off places, so. Those are both long, long teaser legs.
11:23
Yeah, the, the, the Giants- Yeah... was one of them. Of course, uh, you know, him and everyone else using Cincinnati, that just looks too easy- Yeah... and I'm sure it probably is. What could possibly go wrong?
11:31
What could go wrong? Indy maybe. Uh, the, there was a couple, I forget, guys, but if you can go to look exactly. I, uh, and then he gave out some sides. He gave out three sides too.
11:40
I, maybe I should look into them before I start I like Indy-... cold calls... in a teaser too. I haven't played it, but I do like it. There is a bunch of natural teasers there. Yep.
11:46
A bunch of natural teaser legs, you just named a bunch of them. More with Crack Man on the other side, Numbers Game, VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com, best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. If you look at the front page, Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA.
12:14
He's got plays in the W. Zach Cohen, uh, Ravens-Chiefs, in case you missed it earlier. He's got, uh, thoughts on the game. He's also, uh, talking college football and tennis as well.
12:24
JVT on college football, Shoemaker on college football. It's all there, vsin.com. Check it out. We got tweets that beat the book. I always appreciate the feedback.
12:33
Sports Savant, uh, was talking about Emma Navarro, that Pegula has been a top five player, and Navarro currently top 20, and that she'll be in the top 10.
12:39
He even says, "Uh, yeah, they said n- that Navarro will be top 10 after her win, sitting number seven right now for the WTA finals."
12:47
They, they let eight men and women into the ATP and the WTA finals based on your points for the season. So Navarro currently would be involved in that.
12:55
Rob Smith @RLS0669, "Just listened to the week one Megapod, and as a Cincinnati native, was pleasantly surprised to hear the jungle reference for Paycor Stadium and Don Gullett conversation."
13:06
Again, the Megapod, the Beating the Book Megapod, uh, wherever podcasts are distributed, Todd Wishnev, Will Hill, and I, with Steve Fezzik as the week one guest. Great response, uh, to the first week of the Megapod.
13:17
Um, this is from SteelersGuy. Says, "No Lions in your top 10? What am I missing here?" I had the Lions in my top 10. Lions were number three in the NFC. Uh, yes, they were number three for you. Yep. Yeah.
13:28
Uh, Johnny Ringo, "No Seeger. Video poker Sigma derby. I want the charm back. Go back to the D," he says. Okay. Yeah. The charm, the charm. We'll be sure to do that with the charm. After four days in here- Yeah...
13:40
uh, you could pry me out of the studio. Uh, Vegas DP, "Do you make your own power ratings?" I do, but not nearly as mathematically in the NFL as some others do, quite frankly, but I do have my own power ratings.
13:50
Yeah, I think, I think, what, Gil, you and I kind of tack it similarly. This is why we try to just do it in a more blanketed power rankings type approach each week. Yeah.
13:58
Uh, Evan Klein, "Nothing like a stiff bourbon in the morning to quench your thirst," quote, unquote, in thir- in thirst, he says.
14:04
And Brian M., "Let a can of Coke go flat, add some water to match the color, and replace the contents of the bourbon bottle. That's how we keep the bourbon all day." Ah, yeah. No, no, no, no. There you go.
14:13
Kelly might've had some of those ideas yesterday. It didn't g- it didn't go over well. [laughs] Uh, Mike Alvarez saying that the, uh, Commanders are setting a new NFL record Sunday. This is from Todd Furman, actually.
14:22
He's quoting. He says, "Commanders will set a new NFL record, uh, Sunday, for the most consecutive season openers with a different starting quarterback. Eight in a row."
14:29
And Mike Alvarez says to me, he goes, "You guys are number one." Yes. [laughs] Yes. Yes, we, we, if I may say, are. And then, uh, BM says, "Price on Pegula's a little steep. No? I like the Mahova side. Thoughts?"
14:39
Yes, that was the first thing I gave out today. Uh, I'm on Mahova at plus 140. And Mr. Bomb Apple says about the game tonight, "Every single expert on Vs and Picks page has KC minus two and a half as a best bet.
14:50
As you often say, what could go wrong?" Oh, boy. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, and the South Point has that minus 110, 'cause they don't move their juice- They do not... just the number. That's right. Minus two and a...
14:59
They took a $200,000 bet on Jimmy Vicaro posted the ticket on the plus three, so, uh, I'm sure they're pretty heavy on that, but- Okay. You have a prop to share, by the way, sir? Oh, oh.
15:09
So, uh, yeah, one of, one of our buddies just give out a prop here. Of course, you guys, uh, uh, will be chasing this now, I'm sure. McColl, McColl-Hardman, Kansas City, under eight and a half, minus $1.35.
15:21
MGM minus $1.10. Wow, I didn't see that. Um- Repeat it again. McColl-Hardman is what? Under eight and a half receiving yards, minus $1.35. Oh. $1.43 at DraftKings. Uh, a dollar, like I said, $1.10 a few... Okay.
15:35
Uh, the few books have a combo on yards, okay, which he also likes well on, so that's a, a, a winning, winning prop guy that, that, uh, I, I follow.
15:44
He, he, he just put that out about, about three, three, four minutes ago. Um, also, guys, going back to finish that teaser pricing thing, I just checked, 'cause I think Caesars was the last one at a dollar.
15:55
They were $1.20, went to $1.25. They may have went to $1.30 this year. I, I, I- They're $1.25. Are they $1.25? I checked that a couple days ago. I was gonna ask you- That's probably the cheapest...
16:04
is Wynn still at minus 120? 'Cause they were at 120 last year. Well, I'm gonna try to build one right now. Unfortunately, they don't open yet, even though it's- Right, of course. Yeah [laughs]... 8:20 AM.
16:14
No, and I love the Wynn. Let me tell you something. The Wynn was, the, the Wynn was taking some really good bets from me on their app, and then they, uh, still are.
16:22
Uh, I, I love Doug over there and stuff, but yeah, they, they don't open, um- Yeah, 'cause Bill, I think we hit the point last year. They open at 9:00.
16:27
By last season, it was only Caesars, Ce- you know, Caesars and William Hill. Yeah. Yeah. Caesars, William Hill, and Wynn that were minus 120.
16:35
I, I did this on the Megapod too, but I always wanna step in when we have this conversation, 'cause there's gonna be somebody who's new to betting who, who doesn't, you know, wonder what does it mean if the juice is s- s- still the same bet.
16:44
The point of this is, is that when books raise the juice on these types of things, so what used to be even money then went to minus 110, then went to minus 120, now minus 130. Some people have it even higher.
16:55
And the point of that is, is when books, mathematically, when books raise their juice, your win percentage incrementally gets, has to go higher and higher to, for it to become a winning long-term proposition.
17:08
So instead of hitting a certain percentage of your bets, now that bet percentage increases, and over the long haul, that then becomes a losing proposition because you're not going to get to that winning percentage, and that's what w- that's why, yes, for any one bet you can isolate it and say, "Oh, what's the difference?
17:26
It's the same bet." But you're not doing it right if you're sort of focused on it that way. Mm-hmm. Very good.
17:32
And, and, uh, unfortunately, you know, people love the bet teasers, and they think automatically, "Oh, it's 5 cents, 10 cents." No.
17:40
The sharpest minds in the world cannot beat teasers that are gonna be $1.30 on a six point, $1.50. I mean, there's places in this town that charge $1.60 on a seven-point teaser. I mean- It's incredible...
17:53
just to ship the money in. Yeah. Or, so, so Bill, do you think, if, if 125 is the best we get in town- No... do you think your teaser betting will be go- will be dropping this year? Definitely.
18:02
I'm not betting, I, I'm not laying $1.25. Okay. Yeah. I, I did a little, I did a little of this yesterday, but I wanna do it the day that the NFL season starts.
18:08
I wanna say again, there are places, and this is again just a PSA for bettors.
18:12
There are certain shops, know the rules, where if you're in a two-team, uh, six-point teaser, um, or any teaser, if one leg loses and the other one pushes, teasers cannot be t- cannot reduce to a one-team teaser.
18:30
That doesn't exist. So it's actually a refund. So a tie and a loss is actually not a loss. It's a refund. And so I just, again, we should, we should repeat this as many times as we can.
18:41
That exists, and so don't throw your ticket away in that case because, again, the Stevie Fezziks of the world go into dumpsters and- Dumpster diving... and dive for it. Half the shops in this town Fall under that rule.
18:52
Yeah. So half of them are charge, are, are, are giving you a refund and half are not, so- By the way, the half that are not, that should not be allowed.
18:59
Yeah, I, I, I don't know, I have plenty of shops that give you a refund, so- Yeah... uh, you know, a lot, a lot of times it'll, it'll revolve around the night game.
19:07
So you'll lose the early game, you get blown out by 20 points, take your ticket and throw it in the garbage can.
19:13
And, uh, at nighttime when you, you'll see a game land, uh, on 10 that was at 3 or something, people, [laughs] you know, that tease from 3 to 10, well, you know, that, that's a refund.
19:23
And then people will be looking at, at if they're in a, a house that has refunds on teasers. So, um, I wanna give some advice for the entire season now. Please.
19:33
And it's something I've said last year, that our eyes play tricks on us with these games. So a team never looks as good when they're winning. Conversely, they never look as bad when they're losing.
19:48
So instantly you'll say, "Oh my God, I'm betting against this. They look terrible. I'm betting against them next week." The line's not even up yet. It's going to come out- [laughs]... with that baked in already.
19:58
That's right. Like, you know, like, "Oh, they're ter- I don't care what they are, they're terrible." Trust me, our eyes play tricks on us, and every week you think, "Oh my God, this team is great.
20:09
They're going to the Super Bowl. They're gonna be... This is a playoff contention."
20:12
It, it doesn't matter because the line that night, and, you know, you're, you're saying this in t- I don't care if you're saying it in the fourth quarter, the, the line's not out yet.
20:20
The line's gonna come out in another six, seven hours. That's already gonna be taken into consideration and factored in in the line. So, um, you know, I know that that's just how people handicap.
20:29
That's how they handicap games. They say, "Oh- Yeah... you know, th- this team looked good. I was watching the game."
20:34
This is, well, this is, what you have just said is the single, like, if you did a, a NFL betting 101 to the, to the first time bettor, that's the topic sentence, right? Fight recency bias. Perfect.
20:45
It's the biggest single thing because, uh, Mark Odangelo used to say it on the Megapot all the time, "No team," like what you just said, "No team looks as good as it did one week, no team looks as bad as it did one week."
20:54
And the reason we did those power rankings earlier, again, and I know we're being repetitive here if you were on earlier, but it's worth r- it's worth repeating for newer bettors.
21:02
The reason we do those is 'cause they give us, give ourselves, 'cause everybody's susceptible to this, right? We're all human beings with a flawed human brain. We, we tend to be, get biased to what we've seen last.
21:12
But those, those power rankings allow us to sort of set back to the middle when we see a team lay an egg, right?
21:21
Um, the Ravens, we were talking about how great the Ravens' season was and w- in the top five DVOA season last year. They destroyed, right, really good teams last year.
21:30
Um, they blew out, the Lions was one of the g- the Lions were one of the teams they blew out. Um, they blew out the Dolphins, they blew out the Niners. Yep. They blew out the Jaguars.
21:39
And then remember the games they lost, they lost in just ridiculous fashion to, like, the Colts of the world and the Steelers of the world.
21:45
So I'm just saying, just because the Lions got destroyed by the Ravens doesn't mean the Lions all of a sudden suck, and you just have to fight that feeling on a week-to-week basis.
21:56
And it's, it's, it's not even, it's just everyone, just the way that people handicap, you know?
22:00
I heard someone say recently, um, a, a guy that's in media, and he, he actually t- even though he's been in media for years, this is the first season he said, "I, I, I've been looking at NFL wrong.
22:11
I've been watching the games on the weekend and doing my work based on me watching the games and watching clips of games and going back all week." Uh, listen, that stuff is all in the line already when it comes out.
22:24
It is. Everything you're seeing is in the line, for the most part. There may be little- Yeah...
22:28
nuggets, injury stuff, and stuff like that, but, uh, yeah, it's, it's, uh, it's like I said, it's factored in, guys, so just be careful. You know, be careful with your bankrolls this year.
22:38
You know, the, you know, you could be, uh, broke real early. And no sport has more recency bias to, to, uh, to sort of fight against than the NFL 'cause everybody's got an opinion.
22:47
More Unscripted with the Crack Man on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live.
22:57
It's Circa, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Hvidlum, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, and Bill Krackomberger on Scrip- Unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger.
23:07
@BillCrackMan with a K on Twitter. Wise Cracks the name of the, uh, podcast. Matthew Steinhart on Twitter, uh, we get tweets, "Best chuckle of the morning, quote, that's still around, unquote." What was that?
23:18
That's still around. Yeah. Huh. You have to explain to us, Matthew, what that was about. [laughs] Uh, since we're, since we made a chuckle. I say a lot of things without thinking, so, you know, we'll- I don't know why.
23:26
[laughs] Uh, fr- threejackh3131, "I only catch your show on iHeartRadio n- so no visual, but even my ears can tell you're on the wrong side of the screen." [laughs] Uh, Sean Higgs, "Yeah, uh, Bill has to be in your seat.
23:39
A Jersey guy needs to have his eye towards the door, and Kelly is right," [laughs] "He's in your seat. How did you guys flip like that? We need a headset in the middle of the desk like a football helmet."
23:47
People are really upset about that. Oh, here's one for you, Crack. Numbers Guy says, "Question for Crack.
23:51
Building on what you were saying about ESPN not referencing gambling five years ago, did you see a scenario where gambling would be thrust to the forefront and, more specifically, you would be in the spotlight after years of moving freely in the shadows?"
24:03
[laughs] Well, I don't, you know- In the shadows... uh, no, I probably did not see the, uh, so mainstream betting like it is, uh, talked about a- among all the major networks even, you know, once in a while.
24:14
Remember, like, Al and Brent used to say something on air and people, "Oh, was that a gambling quote?" Mm-hmm. "A gambling reference?" Yeah. That might matter to some. Yeah, that might matter to some. Here.
24:24
Right, that extra- The Chris, the Chris Fowler was, yeah, "Significant to some." [laughs] Yeah. Yeah.
24:29
But, uh, that, a- as far as, you know, talking about it, I, I, I was on in the late '90s with, uh, with, with a guy in town here that had a, had a show, [smacks lips] um, I don't know why I can't think of it now.
24:41
I did a show with, uh, with, uh, Lem Banker every Friday. Banker? Lem. Um, yeah, Lem and, uh, Larry Grossman. Larry Grossman. It was called You Can Bet On It. It was really the only gambling show out there that I knew.
24:54
Late '90s, early 2000s, and, uh, I, I did Yeah, I did, uh, did, did a show with him. Yeah. What were you saying? No, I was just... The, the camera's pointing at you right there. Oh, oh, okay. Yeah. I...
25:03
Am I on that camera? Yeah, yeah. Oh. Totally. Okay. So I, I've- Yeah... why would I be on the cameras directly in front of me? [laughs] Of course, I understand. But, um- [laughs] Yeah, no.
25:12
So, so yeah, so, so- Solid stage direction though, Gil. Yeah. Good job. Very good. [laughs] Very good. So- Oh, yeah, it's completely thrown off... I'll, I'll not follow back to that one. Yeah. So yeah. That's it.
25:21
So anyway, I was on that show every, every week, and it was really good. We had some really good times on, on that show. And, and Lem was like a legend of the town.
25:28
He used to do it from his backyard sometimes, hanging out with his dogs and on air, though.
25:33
And, uh, so I, I've been doing gambling shows for years, talking about gambling content, but I never thought it would be as mainstream as, as it is, and I never thought I would be so much of an advocate for responsible gambling, like I am.
25:45
Yes, you are that. Yes. Oh, no, I'm- No... I go after, uh, you know, these, these places for having their sports so much in the eye of children.
25:53
Because I always tell you guys, I've been gambling since I was a little kid. I was gambling on those parlay cards eight, nine years old. I worked on the Jersey Shore boardwalk town that we gambled every...
26:04
The gambling was part of our life. It was instilled in us. It was a rite of passage. So, um, you know, coming down from, uh, uh, North Jersey and, and, and going to Atlantic City at a young, young age.
26:15
Uh, I was in Atlantic City at 16. You know, most people were, though, you know? I didn't even have a fake ID, but I was in there at 16 years old. Mm-hmm. So, and you had to be 21. Oh- Yeah... the trips to Atlantic City.
26:25
Yeah, you had to have them trips, too, am I right? Oh, yeah. Yeah. What was it, like f- three hours, three hour-ish? Three-hour drive from DC. Yeah. Yeah. And, and were you there at under 21? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
26:34
Of course. And it was hor- horrific. [laughs] You've had those, we have had those- Oh... trips on the way back- Oh, yeah... where you were fighting for gas money with people, with tolls.
26:41
We were talking this conversation. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. The tolls, right? [laughs] Yeah. Yeah. We just gotta- Yeah, no, we have. Have we talked about- We'd buy McDonald's breakfast.
26:47
We did, we did the, we did the fake, uh, with the- Oh, no, everyone did the fake thing. Yeah. You, you hit the t- there was, there was a, a white basket at the toll booth. A white basket.
26:53
You used to hit the basket, honk the horn, and go. We would do it- There was no cameras... like we were, we'd be throwing money in, but we wouldn't- Over to the si- yeah. Yeah. Yeah, over, over the- Yeah. Yeah.
27:00
So have we talked about the hookers yet? Uh, no, we haven't, Bill. No. [laughs] No, I just- It's quite a segue. Oh. No, I just wanna know, 'cause it, it, it shocked me. I, I, I did not know we had this in town.
27:12
Uh, of, of course I know we have hookers in town, but I didn't know we had... I had a pimp come and sit next to me in the casino.
27:19
He was dressed very nice, and he opened his phone, and he called me New York for some reason. I guess 'cause I had the black hat on or, you know. He goes, "Yo, New York." He goes- [laughs] Referred to you as New York?
27:29
Yeah, New York. Yeah. [laughs] Isn't that great? Yeah. What's up, buddy? I'm playing. But, you know- Yeah... he sees the voucher in the machine. I just got a, I just took a marker.
27:35
So he, he sees there's a lot of money in my machine probably. Wait, where, where were you hitting at? And I'm outside the high limit room. At high limit, okay.
27:41
Yeah, or right out- right outside high limit, 'cause they have a 50 play machine I like there, so I'm outside. So, so he sees a large voucher. I guess I was the mark. Um, but he...
27:50
You know, I'm not gonna say mark, 'cause he was very nice. [laughs] Very nice guy. To you. Yeah, he was very nice. So- To you... sits next to me. He was a salesman. Yeah.
27:59
Opens his phone, a Rolodex, and he's, he actually ma- made the words, he goes, "Yo, New York." He go, "And it's funny, 'cause I seen a lot of girls walking around, very beautiful girls."
28:09
I was like, wow, these nice girls, beautiful girls going by. Great eye candy walking around. I like when Bill hits me in the middle of a sentence. Oh, sorry. [laughs] It's like this. You talk with your hands.
28:17
Are you paying attention? [laughs] Yeah. He grow, he grow up Jewish and Italian. You just start, so you talk with your hands.
28:20
So he sh, now he starts rolling his phone, and he's like, "Listen, I, these, these are the private stock girls." Private stock girls, and he's showing me photos. And I'm looking, I say, "Yeah."
28:31
He goes, "All right, I'm just telling you they're, they're, they're there. They're, these, these girls are here. They're all here in town. These are real pictures."
28:36
You know, and he called me again, "These are real pictures, New York." Like I, I just didn't know we had pimps in the town still. I didn't know we had that.
28:42
So you're just, you just wanted to share with us the charm of Las Vegas, is that what you're trying to tell me? I, I, I just wanted to share with you that we, that there's still- Okay... pimps around. Okay. Interesting.
28:48
I knew there was pimps in the '80s and '90s, but- Yeah... you know, I- I, I, to back him up, I have not encountered a, uh- I have not either... what I would consider a pimp in my- That's right...
28:57
six years of living here. I have not. Now, now the, the working girls, definitely. Oh, for sure. Yeah. But, but yeah, they, they seem to be out on their own.
29:03
You, uh, there, there's no artful segue to this, but you, we were talking about teasers in the last segment. [laughs] We're gonna go back to that? You actually- Oh. You actually did a whole, like, thing. Sorry. Yes.
29:11
Yeah. Was that un, is that bad, talking about what I just did? Oh, no, I'm just moving- No... on to teasers, Bill. Okay. Just naturally. Just teasers. All right. Just naturally. It was interesting.
29:17
It just occurred to me maybe we should talk teasers. Speaking of teasers. Okay, sorry. [laughs] Teasers. Draft- Yeah. Yeah... all right. So I did the East Coast price shopping for you guys. Yeah.
29:24
I know we got a couple tweets about this. DraftKings is -120 still on their six-point teasers. They are the big, big winner out there because- Definitely.
29:32
Can we, can we stop and just say that one more time, that DraftKings is the big winner on that- Yes... at -120? Yeah. So for all the incoming they take, there's that. Keep that in mind if you like to bet teasers. Yeah.
29:42
I wanna know if that... It, that's hard for me to believe, to be honest with you. You know, the, but not doubt, not doubting you, but you're right, I did remember hearing that last year.
29:49
Are they still, anyone that has a DraftKings account, let us know. Are they still minus $1.20 on six-point teasers?
29:55
Because, um, you know, that, like, like, uh, like you said, K- Kelly said, it's, that, that's the best price out there probably. Oh, wow. Six-point teaser, -120. Yeah.
30:03
Or you can build it, you can actually build the teaser. Yeah. Yeah. Just, just, just, I, I'd be- But that's a long-... I'd be interested to know if, is it a long teaser? Yeah, it was a long teaser. Oh, okay, good.
30:10
So I, I- 'Cause, 'cause we have, let, let's say that, we have noticed that some- Yes... shops may not be allowing long teaser legs to be involved in teasers. Right. Right. That is something.
30:21
Well, at that pricing, or, or you're right, not even take them at all. Not even at all. Yeah. Bro. So okay, after that, then, you've got- That's bad...
30:28
uh, Fanatics, I believe someone just, uh, tweeted in, they're at -125. I think someone just tweeted that in. So that would be the second-best. And then you're at BetRivers at -127. BetMGM- Again...
30:44
-130, and FanDuel, the big winner here, -134 on their two team six point teasers. Jesus. And by winner, you mean loser. Loser. Yeah. Yeah. No, that, that- -134, huh? That's sad. I love betting teasers.
30:55
There's higher in town than that, isn't there, Bill? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah, there is. Yeah. No, the, the... Listen, it's, it's, let me just be blunt.
31:02
They actually got their heads handed to them a little bit, uh, on, on these long teasers a few years back. I think it was three seasons ago.
31:10
And, um, they may have even lost a little bit last year, but they priced them accordingly to not lose them to get their money back and recoup their money, and these rules where ties lose and stuff, so. Yeah.
31:22
Um, and we probably talk too much about teasers, but, uh, I just want people to know that that's what's going on and, and we, you know, we're here to try to help you guys win and give you good nuggets of information.
31:35
So, uh- Yeah... be careful with teaser pricing. You can price yourself out even though you're betting through the key numbers. And also something we forgot, but we've always preached this, don't tease college games. No.
31:48
Do not te- Listen, people go after me for saying this. Don't tease NFL totals. There's, there's no... Don't tease NBA. Don't tease basketball. [laughs] I was just gonna ask. Yeah. Yeah.
31:57
Don't tease, you know, NBA to- anything.
32:00
But people love teasing, and of course I see these idiots in social media that are the influencers trying to put out things and, you know, these kids that are 25 years old think they know everything and- Yeah...
32:12
you know, uh- The, and, and just intuitively, again, just to make it easy for people, it's like you get that the, the volatility of scoring in basketball games, college and pro, is what it is, so the value of every point is, is minuscule by comparison.
32:23
Right. Right?
32:24
College football totals and games are more volatile than NFL games, so the point value is much less than it is in an NFL game, and you can really swing it more in your favor if you play the long teaser legs specifically.
32:35
Also, we should also mention, you know, there's a lot of- Well, the key numbers, right? Let's, and through the- Key numbers 'cause- Well, that's the long teaser legs- Right... through the key numbers.
32:40
So b- but I should also mention, you know, there's a lot of people who will automatically go to a tease.
32:45
Uh, they'll, they'll knock down and say, "Oh, it's two long teaser legs, seven and a half down to, to, uh, one and a half, and eight and a half down to two and a half."
32:51
Sometimes a money line parlay, maybe not just the example I gave, but sometimes a money line parlay will be a better pricing- Excellent... than a two-team teaser will be. Yes. Excellent. Yeah. So check that out as well.
33:01
Again, just little things to remember as the NFL season kicks off today. And with analytics and stuff now, these eights are in play, too, so- Yes...
33:07
you maybe even wanna, if, if you do have a, the shop charging the right juice, maybe you wanna tease through the eight, believe it or not. Eight to eight and a half.
33:14
Now, with college ball, I'm just gonna use, like, Iowa from last year as an example. Still, rule still applies. We're not touching college if you're seeing a total of, like, 32 on the board? There's always exceptions.
33:25
Eh, okay. All right. I mean, there could be, but I'm not doing it. Uh, I'm not- Bill's not doing it. No. Okay, I want- Yeah... that's the answer I was looking for. I'm not teasing any, any totals.
33:32
But once in a blue moon. I'm kind of with you on that, but yeah. Once in a blue moon, we'll come on here and we'll be like, "Well, in this case." There's no blue moons in Vegas. [laughs] More with the Crack Man.
33:41
Bill Krackomberger, It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, Gil Kelly and Bill Krackomberger.
33:58
We get tweets at Beating the Book, so many of these, uh, it's hard to keep up with, so I wanna try to get to as many as possible. GoodJujuJuicy, "Shout out DK for -120 teasers again."
34:07
David Shalifor, "Loved the Megapod this week till Don Gullet's name came up and I had a flashback of 13-year-old me dying watching the '75 World Series." Uh, DK, by the way, -120 six-point teaser he points out as well.
34:17
ScottyB726, "My PPH doesn't refund the teaser tie, but they are -110. Is that a good trade-off?" Yeah, kinda. I guess so. Kinda sorta. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I guess the 110, yeah.
34:28
Keno Walker, "Please call your sportsbook customer service and ask for a bonus before tonight's NFL opener." Most likely you'll get something. Uh, it may come with a 10-times rollover, but hey, they want your action.
34:38
Kevin- He's right. Yeah, he's right on that. Very good. Kevin Norman, "A team is never as bad as it looks when they're losing unless it's Florida State, right Kelly Biblin?" [laughs] That's a funny joke.
34:47
Jeremiah- Whatever, my Saturday's opened up for the year. Jeremiah Westgate, that is your real name. He told me it is his real name.
34:52
Uh, Jerry Westgate, he says, "Hey Gil, I always thought if a one leg of a teaser pushes, the other leg becomes a non-teased wager, so you win if the second team covers without the extra points.
35:01
I only win my teaser, so I haven't been faced with that scenario." Uh, no, that is not the case, no. That would, again, regardless, it cannot reduce to a one-team teaser.
35:09
Uh, Montreal Max, "To add what Bill said, an offshore bookmaker agents never cared if you won or lost week to week. They just waited for your bankroll to run out mostly, so tread lightly like Crack says."
35:18
And Matthew Steinhart, oh, explaining the, uh, the comment. I, I wasn't aware or you weren't aware what we, what he meant by, uh, what was that about again?
35:25
He was talking about sportsbook agent, [laughs] sportsbook.ag when we said that. [laughs] He said, "I think we all took a drive down that road."
35:31
[laughs] "I'm sure a lot of people who still don't have it legal in their state use it." I had no idea it still existed. I didn't know it was still around. Yeah. I would've bet it wasn't.
35:38
Uh, Indiana Jet, uh, one of the, uh, survivor choppers at the end of last year, uh, he said, uh, at Fanatic Sportsbooks you can get Hardman under 10 and a half receiving yards at -125. Thank you for that, sir.
35:51
Um- Oh, that's where I saw the 125. Yes. So disregard whatever I said about teasers at Fanatics. I have no idea. Don't win, though, because you're gonna get thrown out. Yeah.
35:58
[laughs] Steinhart's saying, "Brought back some early memories of sports gambling offshore," talking about sportsbook.ag. Um, Jason, JasonH11, "No Sigma Derby, no problem.
36:08
Every morning [laughs] someone should just ask you, 'Hey Gilly, we talk about hookers yet?'" Uh, yeah, no. Uh, Kip Eusterman [laughs] Hard Rock teasers -125.
36:17
And then, uh, Steven Brosek1870, "Five minutes in the Megapod, man I miss Todd. One hour in, Todd, shut, shut up. I know he means well and has our backs. Glad the pod is back."
36:27
Uh, how- How long is it gonna take Hard Rock to figure out that they could just keep raising that price and, uh, nobody's gonna do anything about it- They'll figure it out... 'cause they're the only book in the state.
36:35
All right, there, there's tons more. I'm sorry I can't get to all of them today. Uh, Larry Fresh does say, "If Gil, if, if Bill was New York, what state or random name do you think the pimp would call you and Kelly?"
36:44
[laughs] No idea. Kelly's Florida, for sure Kelly's Florida. Um- I get California a lot.
36:50
Hey, before I leave here today, I, I owe you, uh, I owe you money 'cause you- Oh, I forgot about the story we're gonna tell, or we're not telling it? You can tell it if you want.
36:57
Um, so yeah, so, so Gil owed me 1,200 bucks from a, a, a, a, a month ago or whatever. Yeah, I know. I made a bet for him. Yeah.
37:04
Uh, and, um- A- a- and j- he, he kept on telling the Thursday, "I'll give you the money," and then I didn't say anything 'cause I felt bad.
37:11
[laughs] He was walking around, the way he was walking around, he looked s- you know, dejected, so I didn't wanna say anything. I didn't look dejected. And he's like... No, I'm just kidding. No, no.
37:18
So then he, he, um, he said, "Oh, let me..." Now I, I walk in last week and he runs to the ATM. Yeah, a- and Gil never gets out of his seat during a show. During, yeah, you, you were wondering what he was doing.
37:27
Yeah, I was like, "Where, where did Gil go?" 'Cause the only reason he does is to go make a bet, and he didn't- Yes... go to the counter. No, he went the other way.
37:33
Well, it was because I didn't have any cash on me, and there was a match- So he went to-... starting at 8:00 AM. Oh, okay. So he went to the ATM. Yeah. Right. And the old Figazi move, "Ah, I won't give you no money."
37:41
You know? [laughs] You know? And then comes- It didn't, it gave me no money... comes running back and says, "Yeah, it says no funds available." I said, "Gil, do you need more money?"
37:47
He said, "Yeah, I need a, yeah, I, give me a dime," so I gave him a thousand bucks. He went to the counter. Yeah. And you, you made a bet. Yeah. And later on the day you said, "Bill, how much do I owe you?"
37:59
Because that bet won 30 grand? Did it win 30? The one that you... Yeah, the thousand you gave me won 22 grand. Unbelievable. Yeah. That's unbelievable.
38:07
Well, that was, that, was that part of your, that was pa- that part of your monster day? It was a monster day. Well, actually, yeah. It was like a bl- was it like a $100,000 day or something? Can we talk about that? No?
38:15
Okay. [laughs] All right, it was 22,000. So anyway, $22,000 and he said, "Hey," and on it, "And so I wanna give you a- another line from a movie."
38:24
You know, Bonasera, Bonasera, what have I ever done to- I said so because we had been talking about tipping... deserve this disrespect. So I'm like, "Bill- I don't want anything... how much do I tip you on this?"
38:31
[laughs] Yeah. Because I ended up making all this money. Right. No, no, treat me with no disrespe- Yeah. I'll, I'll have to get my dime back, though, but [laughs] Yeah, I gotta give you your money. Oh, yeah.
38:38
You're getting your outlay back. But- No, I, that was a, uh, that was one of the- It wasn't what you buy dinner next time... that was one of the great betting days in history. Yeah. It's great.
38:47
If not, if not the greatest. By the way- Wow, like a Banciro day...
38:49
by the way, because I went to, uh, the, because I wasted the time going to the ATM, the 8:00 match started before I could get that in, so it would've been, they saved themselves 30K additionally on that.
39:02
Oh, that's what you said. That's what you said. Yes. I was trying to show a bet here. Yeah. Boy, I tell you what, y- you guys had a talk about this Monday, I would think. So, or maybe not.
39:11
Alabama A&M, um, the Auburn Alabama A&M game, do you guys know what happened in that game? So it's, you know, obviously the college football's four 15-minute quarters. Mm-hmm. They're winning 52 to three- Yeah...
39:24
at the half. The coaches decide, "Let's just play two 10-minute quarters, the third and fourth quarter." Mm-hmm. Th- that's gonna null and void anyone's bets on the game. Null and void. Mm.
39:33
'Cause they gotta go 55, right? 55 minutes. Yeah. It only went 50. Actually, uh, they, they actually put a note in my account.
39:39
I was trying to [laughs] read the note in my account, and they were like, "Yeah, sorry, we can't pay you on that, that win." Um, now the same thing happened, the same thing happened for, this was at Circa, Kentucky.
39:51
Kentucky minus 24, the bet was canceled. I, I think this game did not go the full amount of time. Uh, a- and yeah, I know, betting three grand on games, I don't know how it happened.
40:02
But I know, like, that game didn't go the, because of lightning, which I understand. I think it was weather related.
40:07
But this changing the rules in the middle of a game, that, did, did you, did you know about the Auburn game, what they did? Yeah, I heard about it. Yeah. Yeah, but it affected- Yeah...
40:15
us who, who had, you know, Auburn laying- We're betting on this stuff, people. Yeah. We're betting on this stuff. We're betting on this stuff. And they do do that, what, time to time in college football, right?
40:23
They change the rules of the game? Like, what's the- I've never heard it before... like, running clock- Like, oh, like, guys, let's only play 10 minute quarters... there's weather concerns. It has happened before. Yeah.
40:30
Yeah. Wow. Yeah. Wow. I mean, it still, yes, it still goes back to we bet on these things, though. Like, that's a problem. We, uh, before we go. Yeah.
40:37
Chiefs Ravens, do you have, do you have a position on this game today? Well, listen, uh, I- To declare beyond that prop... I, I have a position because of the, of the two and a half minus $1.10. Right.
40:46
However, and I call it the voice, just like on the movie, um, uh, the Denzel Washington movie in Mexico, The Voice. My, my, my brain's always working that way. Um, there's a person on, on Twitter- Man on Fire?...
40:58
who I like to bet against, Man on Fire, uh, who I like to bet against, and that person just gave out Kansas City minus three. I mean, uh, you know, it's just- [laughs]... just, it's just, it's sad.
41:09
Now listen, it's just as good, we've talked about this on this show and in this spot- Someone who's a documented 0 and 15... just as good to find a losing handicapper- Just as good as 50-0...
41:18
than a, a winning handicapper, and this person is a losing handicapper, has buried people, has, literally, they have their own cemetery. I mean, they, they've just for, for their victims.
41:29
No, um, so when, when I see that they gave out Kansas City, really bothers me, and I'm not joking, it really does. But, um, only 'cause it's- Total keeps flashing... minus two and a half minus $1.10.
41:39
I just think that South Point, even though they took that $200,000 bet on Baltimore, they may go back to them. 'Cause if anyone's looking to bet Kansas City- Right. Yeah...
41:47
here, they're gonna be betting over there at South Point. At South Point. Minus two and a half, minus 110. Mm-hmm.
41:52
The, the entire market that I'm looking at looks like it's, like, three, ah, but maybe I just seen, uh, I just seen Chris move to minus two and a half, minus 11. So, um, you know, it... Listen, just don't go crazy.
42:04
It's an NFL side. Don't go crazy on anything. I, I, I will be rooting, uh, Kansas City, but you know, people have really high marks on Baltimore this year. I mean, people really think- Yeah...
42:14
that Bal- and plus is this is the revenge game, too. They were fan- they, well, yes, if you believe in that kind of thing, it's a revenge game. Yeah.
42:20
But they were, uh, we said at the top of the show, we said it many times, last year they were historically good. And again, this is, like, sort of the biggest thing about handicapping.
42:30
What is the part that you take away? With most, most handicappers, most, most people, they just, they immediately, their brains go to, oh, Lamar Jackson's never won the big one. That's Baltimore. That's their identity.
42:40
No, they were great last year. They were better than Kansas City until the ultimate time when it mattered. But for the body of the season, they were much, much better than Kansas City. Wow.
42:51
How does, uh, uh- That makes the handicap tough... and now you have a Friday night NFL game tomorrow. Brazil. In Brazil. In Brazil.
42:58
And by the way, you see they, they give warnings out to the players yesterday, do not go outside your room. This is on- Oh, yeah... this is on Wednesday they had the warning, do not go outside your hotel rooms.
43:07
There was an incident already that happened. So why even play there? I guess money, right? Is that a, NFL's involved with some big money or something there.
43:14
Um, yeah, this, this is, uh, the, there's just so much hurdles for the public and, and you know, a Thursday night NFL game, a Friday night NFL game, boy, Saturday all day college football.
43:28
I, I hope you have money for the late games on Sunday. That's all I can tell you. [laughs] Right. Get even or get even deeper.
43:33
By the way, a shout-out to Heavens to Bet City who points out that my, uh, Muhova bet over Pugula today at plus 140 is already graded as a loss on the picks page. [laughs] Is Wes Reynolds trying to knock me out?
43:43
What's happening on the picks page? Sabotage. That's awesome. Billy, thank you as always, man. Appreciate it. Yeah. No, this, this was, this was fun. I like the new, uh, the new digs over here.
43:51
It's- I'm glad you guys are part of the, uh, the big, the big picture here. [laughs] Thank you. Yeah. Appreciate that.
43:56
Uh, Money Moves is next with the, uh, lovely Storey Bonitatoni and Mike Somich, who's equally lovely, by the way. Noon Eastern, uh, right here after the show.
44:04
Today, VSiN contributor Matt Williams gonna break down the best NFL props you'll wanna bet on. Uh, then stick around for our brand-new show, Prop Points with John Hanson. That debuts today, 2:00 PM Eastern.
44:15
John brings his decades of fantasy expertise to our airwaves, and then Make It Rain right after that with Adam Shine. That's from 3:00 to 4:00 PM Eastern.
44:23
Adam has decades of NFL sports knowledge and will be a great addition to the network. Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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