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Sep 5, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 5, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 5, 2025 | Hour 2
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45:45
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It's my little buddy, Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Yo, losing weight? Yeah? Yourself? No, I've been bad. You've been bad? I've only been in the gym twice in the past week. It's not good. I, I have, uh...
0:28
I saw you in the rear view mirror, so I have, uh, knocked it down several pounds. I refused to let you pass me. Oh, I was like, "You saw me in what mirror? What are you talking about?" No, no, no.
0:36
I'm, I'm like- [laughs] I saw, saw you in my rear view figuratively- [laughs]... and I'm like, "I gotta lose some weight. Kelly cannot pass me." Yeah. Um, but that's good. That's what...
0:44
You inspired me to lose some weight. JC- Well, good... we get tweets at Beat The Book. By the way, coming up, Dr. Bob, Steve Fezzik. Uh, Dr.
0:51
Bob is gonna talk to us about one college football game and one pro football game. Like it. After his, uh, Utah State winner on the show last week. And, uh, Steve Fezzik, lots on his mind, from- I mean-...
1:04
from survivor, to plays in pocket, to, I don't know, the Las Vegas convention having terrible commercials. Hey- He's got it all on his mind today... still confused by that text message a little bit. Yeah, yeah.
1:16
But the, um... Yeah, hey, look, Bob's love for Utah State last week, it really, it really impacted my college guessing lines performance this week. Did it? I see. I, absolutely it did.
1:25
I was like, "Bob was high on these guys." Yeah. Well, Wyatt's very crafty with the games he picks. Did you call it your college football guessing lines performance? Is that what you called it? Is that what I said? Yeah.
1:33
[laughs] Performance. Wyatt's very crafty with this. He does a great job of picking the games, and I always, I always wonder how much he's thinking about stuff like that.
1:41
I'm like, "Does, did he know this was gonna be in my head because Bob just talked about these, uh, this team last week?" 'Cause if so, he did a great job. It was in my head. Hmm. We get tweets at Beat The Book.
1:51
I was wildly off. JC at JC562076, "Watched Unknown Number on Netflix per my recommendation. Wow. That is all." That's all you can say about that. It's a non-sports betting documentary. It's on Netflix.
2:04
It was brand-new last week. It will blow your mind. How many documentaries does Netflix put out a month would you guess? Great question. Great question. Because it's several, right? It is several, but like- A month...
2:17
but you can tell w- where the good... which the good ones are and which the bad ones are. Like, I'll give you an example of a bad one. Yogurt Shop Murders, not worth your time.
2:27
Like, the Donna Summer documentary, not worth your time. But, like, the good ones I'll let you know, and Unknown Number on Netflix: A Catfish Story is just out of control.
2:37
Are any of these condensed to, like, an hour and a half, or are they all, like, eight-part series these days? Bro, this is what you watch. After a day of sports betting, this is what you watch late at night.
2:46
I'm just telling you. This is how you do it. No, no, I'm like... No, I'm with you. I go another direction, but I need something that has absolutely nothing to do... It's, like, meditative, right? No.
2:53
Nothing to do with sports. Take your mind off sports and sports betting for an hour or hour and some- This is what it is. Yeah. Yeah, just a little over an hour.
2:59
Spence, Spence CC, "We need a Seinfeld-style deconstruction of the loogie." People are really fascinated by this. Oh, this is very nice.
3:05
Weston, Guy in Cornfield, says, "Mark it up at FanDuel," talking about most wins September. Thank you. Thank you for letting us know. So right now- Oh, okay...
3:14
right now most teams w- most team wins in September is up at FanDuel, the adjusted prices, and the 4-0 Tampa Bay Rays are your new short shot at plus 550. The Yankees are seven to one.
3:26
The Yankees are two in one, and their schedule is among the easiest in Major League Base- well, not, not among the easiest, but the at least easy third. Um, so it's easy-ish, if you will. They are seven to one.
3:39
The Phillies are plus 850. The Phillies are currently two in one. The Cubbies are plus 950. The Cubbies are two in one thus far in September. And then the Giants, the 4-0, excuse me, the 3-0 Giants are 10 to one.
3:53
The problem is with the Giants, as I've said, even though they're only four back of the Mets in the NL wild card race, they got seven games left against the Dodgers, so that's the, that's the issue with the Giants.
4:04
So there you go. FanDuel, thank you, uh- Yeah... for that. Good, good for them. This is from Jeff Cam, "Free on YouTube app on Fire Stick tonight," he says. Ballgame tonight, the football game.
4:14
Million Dollar Rob, "Kelly don't trust those pitches- Mm-mm... with a P. Mm-mm. Never. Prime Time has a little issue with you. "Cowboys_Cubs won. Gil, yo, hey man, I'm sorry.
4:25
Leave it to habitually rule, habitual rule breaker Kelly Bidlin to accuse a Walter Payton Man of the Year of shenanigans.
4:32
If Speed Racing Manslaughterer wasn't three yards past the scrimmage line and near the boys' huddle, LoogieGate never happens." That's kinda my opinion of it as well. It, they were both...
4:40
It, it was some excellent gamesmanship on both sides before the first game of the season. Oh, there's more. You're, you're taking incoming. Okay. Sky High- What's Sky- "... better brewer.
4:50
Kelly's vitriol over Dak spitting in the huddle on the ground in Carter's direction and near apologetic tone about Carter because it wasn't in the face is pure comedy."
4:58
[laughs] "Please tell me it would be the same if they threw punches in the same direction." [laughs] Oh, man. Jason Stark's happy that I hung up. Yeah, I loved it. Like, I loved it. Like, I don't like the spitting.
5:07
I love by Jalen Carter before the first play of the game, he's barking at the rook. Like, "I'm gonna be in your face all day." I loved it. Hmm, wasn't that exciting? Jason Stark, "Nice job, Gil.
5:18
I know you won't be surprised to hear this. I also have the Steelers in pocket. Here we go." He's a Steelers fan. He's the guy that ha- hated that we were all against the Steelers last year.
5:26
It's Kelly who does it every year. I'm not, I'm not against them this year. Okay. Now you're just trying to rile them up. Now you're- Just trying to rile them up against you...
5:33
now you're just trying to grab- [laughs] Now you're trying to give them all pitchforks at this point. Pitch, [laughs] that's what I'm going for, pitchforks. Pinch forks with a P.
5:40
Uh, let's see, and this is from, uh, Kip Heisman. "Hey Gil, what odds do the two team teasers become disadvantageous? Is it anything above -120?" Yes. By the way, offshore, this is the teasers thing.
5:52
The epidemic of teasers regulated versus non-regulated- Yeah... is a massive gap at this point now that DraftKings no longer offers the -126 point, uh, 6.2 leg teasers. They've went to -135.
6:05
Offshore, though, you know, where some of us live- It's -110 and -120 on these everywhere. So it's just like, it's just a massive gap between, uh, regulated and non-regulated.
6:18
So- Man, so you're still gonna, uh, you're still gonna see some teasers from, uh, from me and Gil- Yeah... plenty of times this year. Well, uh, once again, the very thing they wanted to eradicate, right?
6:26
Is what they are promoting. Yep. Everyone will gravitate towards where the, where the proper price is. Uh, let's continue with week one.
6:32
This is the game that on the Megapod I answered too, the question, one of the final Megapod questions of what's the game you want no part of?
6:39
If you had to bet it- if you had to bet the spread, you lived in a bizarro world, you had to bet the spread on each and every one of week one games, but you get one free pass, one game you want no part of.
6:48
Dolphins, Colts is that game to me, and it's reflected in the pick-up. Uh, well, I'll go back. Chiefs, Chargers is... It, it's 1A or 1B for me. Yeah. It's tied with Lions, Packers. Okay. It's right there for, uh, for me.
6:58
But don't- It's interesting though because we've had guys on the show this week, Will Hill, right? Big opinion on the Dolphins if I'm not mistaken. I've got, I've got two bets in this game. What are they? Dolphins side.
7:06
Yeah... and the over. Oh, so how can it be the game you want no part of? No. I said the, the, it's Chargers, Chiefs for me- Oh... and Lions, Packers for me this week. Oh, I'm sorry. Okay. Yeah. All right.
7:14
But I understand. I, I get it. I... Look, I think Will broke it down well. Uh, while the Dolphins are healthy, [laughs] as I think everybody expects them to be injured at some point, um, I'm looking at...
7:26
Look, I think the over, I really like the over in this game. I, I would love it more if, if it was Anthony Richardson going instead of Daniel Jones, but I mean, Gil, these are...
7:34
This is another game where you are getting match-ups where offensive skill weapons versus secondaries that do, cannot keep up, uh, with what the wide receivers are g- a- and tight ends are gonna be bringing at them.
7:46
So I expect to see a fa- fair amount of points scored in this game, even with Daniel Jones going on the, on the Indianapolis side. And I think the Dolphins, this is a game... Man, everybody, everybody's hating on them.
7:57
You roll in here a li- a- way under the radar as far as the AFC playoff picture goes. You go into a dome, Tua, Tyreek, fast moving offense in the dome. I, I think it's...
8:07
I think I like the spot for the b- uh, Dolphins to start the year. He likes the spot. He's already got a spot on the Dolphins. Inside is that spot. Next, uh, let's go to, uh... Let's go to that grid.
8:16
We'll, we'll do them in order of the, of the grid that you guys had, 'cause otherwise- It's the Circa Millions lines too, yeah. Mm-hmm. Um, 'cause otherwise we'll bounce off. Okay, don't put up the grid.
8:23
I'll just go and find... Oh, there they are. Thank you. Panthers and Jaguars. Jaguars favored by three and a half.
8:28
This has bounced between three and three and a half it feel like all summer, but certainly in the last month or two it has. Um, I didn't quite understand why it was three. It's a non-play for me.
8:37
It is a non-contest pick. I am not touching this game either. Over 46 and a half for me on this game. Uh, this is the,
8:45
uh, the, the, just the perfect example of two teams that are both on my graphic of I cannot dare begin to think about betting unders. I will go over when they fa- when they face each other.
8:57
Uh, maybe, maybe Bryce Young, uh, Panthers got something with him.
9:00
I still gotta see it a little bit more, but I do think this Jags offense is gonna come out strong, and both these defenses I think are an absolute train wreck. Also Sunday morning, Giants at the Commanders.
9:10
Washington favored by six. Anecdotally, and certainly on the Megapod, a lot of Giants plus the points love against Washington. Okay. I took six and a half with the Giants, but it's not a big bet for me. Okay.
9:24
Um, still on Sunday morning. Probably a con- a to- contest play though, just 'cause I don't know that I'm gonna find five others I like better. So far in the contest I've given you the Steelers for me. Bengals at Browns.
9:36
Lot of love for the Browns this week. Very popular side, it feels like. Browns plus five at home against their division rival Bengals. Bengals have never done anything to people week one, have they? No.
9:47
It's always worked out. Nothing here for me, Gil. Nope. But, um, it would be Bengals or nothing for me. I, I... You're right, I've heard a lot of Browns love this week. I, I... You brought it up before.
9:58
I, I think it's a s- I think it's a sneaky survivor play this week. I- it is kinda- It is, it is the most contrarian of all the bigger favorites. Big favorites. Yes. Yeah, obvious big favorites. Yeah.
10:08
Road team, division game. Bengals have killed people in the past, most notably last year- Yeah... weeks one and three. So it has those three strikes, quote unquote, against it. So in many ways going with the Bengals.
10:19
Every time I say that I get at least one tweeter like, "Don't do it." I think just even if you're betting this game the side, playing it in con- It might be, it might be a contest play for me, actually.
10:29
The Bengals f- side might be. Um, or survivor. I, I, I mean, I do trust, I trust what my eyeballs have seen and what my ears have heard, right?
10:37
And what, what I've seen and heard this summer is the Bengals know this is an issue, and they played guys in pre-seasons- Yep. That's right... that they have not played before to avoid these type of early season issues.
10:48
I think we can say sort of the same thing about what we saw out of LSU last week in week one. Same thing. They had had for years week one, uh, fall on their face performances.
10:58
They come out and put up a, have a good game against Clemson. I think the Bengals have telegraphed what they've been doing all along.
11:04
I, I expect the Bengals to be ready to play this game, and I think they can put up a big number against the Browns. I do too. Also in the morning, Raiders at Patriots. Patriots favored by two and a half here.
11:14
Between two teams that, uh, certainly the fan bases think are gonna have good seasons. A lot of people high on Drake May. Raiders going to Geno Smith at starting quarterback. New coaching staffs. You playing this at all?
11:26
No. Lean to the over. Excited to watch this game actually though, Gil, 'cause I, I think these two teams could be halfway okay. I'm excited to watch it all. It's football, baby.
11:36
Like six weeks into the season, these two teams, they might be surprisingly okay. Afternoon games, night games.
11:42
I've got more plays coming that I've made, as well as contest plays and survivor thoughts are we sure as well it's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:51
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[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:01
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros.
13:10
We invite you to check 'em out, sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book, always appreciated, uh, from everybody. Best listeners in the game.
13:19
Eric Biggio from William Hill Caesars, he says, "Adjusted September wins up at William Hill Caesars as well. Enjoy." Apparently Kelly Bidlin did not, uh, scour the earth for them is what I'm- Nope... is what I'm hearing.
13:30
Well, I, um, I'll make a bet they weren't up at 4:30 in the morning when I checked. [laughs] Oh, maybe that's what happened. That was four hours ago, but- Brian Schaefer, "Gil, have you ever been to The Sphere?" Yes.
13:40
"Wizard of Oz is playing there now. Went online to look at tickets and prices are outrageous. Plane ticket, hotel and tickets, 3K total." So I have been to The Sphere. I went to see the Eagles at The Sphere.
13:52
I'm not an Eagles fan, but, but the, the visuals are just out of control, and I do wanna go see the Wizard of Oz at The Sphere. Totally wanna see that. Yeah.
14:02
That would be one of those things where if I was a, uh, a fan of The Weed, that what you would do and then you'd go watch it. [laughs] A fan of The Weed.
14:07
But here's the thing, the, the, the reviews are kinda mixed, the ones that I've seen. Oh, on Wizard of Oz? Yeah, but I'll, I'll go see it for myself. I'm not gonna listen to those. So- Yeah...
14:15
look, I know it can get pricey when you start talking about hotels and flights and The Sphere combined.
14:21
I have, I haven't met a single person yet that's gone to one of the shows at The Sphere though and has said this was a waste of money and- No... complained about it. Not one human. Not, nobody. Yeah.
14:30
Unless you sit under the overhang, which you don't wanna do. That defeats the purpose. Yes. Uh, James Fessler, "Gil, can we really trust Kelly on Spitgate? He still believes Jameis paid for the crab legs." Great point.
14:41
[laughs] Great point, James. Uh, let's see. That's a good one. Rob Graham- He didn't know they were... He thought it was just part of being a Florida State quarterback, that you could just grab crab legs.
14:51
Rob Graham, "Happy, happy Friday, Gil, Kelly, Fez, Dr. Bob. So I went one and one on the, uh, Canadian Football League picks I recommended you last weekend. This week I have the Ottawa BC over 55 and a half.
15:03
They're both coming off a bye, so there'll be fireworks," he says. All right. Se- Senators verse Alliance there. Oh, Senators versus Alliance. Thank you for that. Re- Red Blacks. I confused my hockey and CFL.
15:12
Oh, this is great, The Auburnist. He's killing me. He goes, "Kelly thoroughly enjoyed Gil struggling with the MMA names after being tortured with tennis players for a number of years."
15:19
You know what the thing was, The Auburnist? I knew these names, I just couldn't execute it. Nassourdine Imavov, Caio Borralho, Mauricio Rufi, and Benoit Saint Denis.
15:31
I'm glad The Auburnist- I just couldn't, I just couldn't execute it. I, I choked. I'm glad The Auburnist caught it 'cause I- He did... I was just smiling into the camera the entire time. It's bad.
15:38
I totally- I ve- I very, very much enjoyed that. I totally botched it. Jacco Bellis at Wapeezi Capital. Oh my God, this is a great tweet. Do we have this one?
15:45
"Live look at Todd Wisniewski as he does his weekly play by, play-by-play on the Megapod."
15:51
I kept calling Todd purple on the Megapod because he would do his play-by-play, and he does th- he does these fake play-by-plays to kill other people's bets after someone gives a bet, and he was just...
16:01
He loses his breath, and I worry about him. He needs oxygen. He turns purple. [laughs] And so Jacco Bellis went ahead and put this together. That's awesome. This is so well done. It is so well done. Is this, is this AI?
16:10
It looks like him. Like, what, what are we... What are you talking about? It looks like him. That's amazing. By the way, that, that is gonna be Ke- Kelly old man j- just for the next 10 years. Okay.
16:19
I'm just gonna continuously ask that. I'm gonna be like, "Is this AI?" About anything. But uh, no, the shirt. The shirt though, like I've seen Todd wear that shirt at least seven times. Nailed it, purple.
16:30
Oh, at least seven times. Yeah, yeah. He's, he's not a s- he's not sartorially, uh, talented. He's not one for fashion. Uh, LFC Title Records, "Kelly has 99 problems and the pit, but a pitch ain't one." That's right.
16:44
PS, Wizard of- Football field... he says, "PS, Wizard of Oz was excellent last week." Thank you. Now I will go. Fezzik's South Point Runner, [laughs] I love that.
16:51
"Thank sweet baby Jesus for someone mentioning- [laughs]... the Bengals. I have them in survivor as well as a contest play.
16:58
Burrow and the Bengals are very aware of their slow starts to seasons and are looking to get off to a good start." I'm with you, man. Um, and then Steve, "New York football Giants 42.
17:07
Any early thoughts on the women's final tomorrow? Sabalenka minus 225 and Anisimova plus 187." Oh, I've got thoughts, I just haven't given it to VSiN Pro subscribers yet, so I'm not gonna do it right here.
17:17
Other one, c- a couple injury notes that we should bring up. Myles Garrett missed pr- missed practice yesterday, which like I... We, you know, week one injuries, you're always like...
17:29
I don't know about you, I keep get- I get alerts on my phone and it's like- Yeah... it's like the person who was questionable cleared to play week one. You're like, "Yeah- Well, the big-...
17:36
obviously, 'cause they didn't have to give official injury reports until this week, right? The, the big one was Christian McCaffrey. And then McCaffrey, yes. Which we'll get to here momentarily, which is...
17:44
Well, now I don't wanna take the Niners in a contest play. Um, by the way- [laughs]... cou- couple more tweets real quick. Uh, Corbin, "Good morning, fellas.
17:52
Definitely did not think the big topic after the first game of the year would be Spitgate, but here we are.
17:56
Also, bonus about being in Canada is if you have cable or TSN, you get every big-time matchup without having to cough up more." Yeah, that's nice.
18:02
Adam Orpin, "Yes, the visuals are amazing at The Sphere, but as someone who's attended thousands of concerts, the sound at The Sphere," yes, "is absolutely incredible. It's a must-do for anyone who loves music.
18:11
And yes, Kelly, no one complains about the price after seeing a show there." All true. Uh, okay, back to the games. Cardinals at Saints, these are still early games on Sunday.
18:20
Cardinals are six and a half point road favorites. Again, will it be a big survivor play?
18:25
It'll be one of the top five, but, but there will be a section of people who will say, "Nope," 'cause it's a road game, so we don't want any part of that.
18:31
I, I'm even getting a little bit more backed off my initial position on that.
18:34
Would it really surprise you if at 1:05 Pacific, 4:05 Eastern, I wanna say Will might've said this on the Megapod too, would it really surprise you [laughs] if the Saints have the ball with a chance to win? I mean, no.
18:49
Yeah. But I think I could say that about e- any game- Any... week one in the NFL. Yeah. Okay? Yeah. We're... Why... The reason that I'm- He, he might have said it about another game, too, yeah...
18:57
the, the reason that I'm getting a little softer on my position on this one, Gil, is because they do have the Panthers the following week, too. Like, I, I think there- Yes...
19:05
are options, and options early, that you're gonna wanna look at using the Cardinals. Okay, last morning game. Bucs at Falcons. I have, uh, been on the Falcons for a long time. I bet it. It's gonna be in the contest.
19:15
The only issue is here is that now it seems like everybody's on the Falcons. Every human being I've talked to. I haven't heard any Bucs love. You even went off your Bucs position.
19:23
I [laughs] I heard a lot, a lot of smart people- What-... on the Falcons, yeah. [laughs] What could possibly go wrong? [laughs] Um, Cleve TA did the... I won't go through it again.
19:31
I did it on the Megapod for the last time. He, he, he did a great sort of dissertation on how lucky the F- Bucs were last year, how unlucky the Falcons were.
19:39
Um, division game, big division game, one could say, first thing in the, of the season, between the, uh, two teams that- Hate that... people think will be above the, the, uh, the fray in the NFC South.
19:49
So, uh, yeah, I'll take the two points and the home team. I, I don't mind, by the way, like quick aside on this, like, I, I don't mind one or two. Like, the game last night.
19:58
You wanna give us a divisional match up- Yeah... and it's a standalone primetime game, great. Why do we need so many huge divisional match, matchups- Agree... week one, though? Agree. You're right.
20:07
Like, that's a massive game stuck in the middle of the 1:00 Eastern window. Let's go to the afternoon games. Titans at Broncos. This will be the most popular survivor play. The Broncos, that is.
20:18
They are eight-and-a-half point favorites, uh, in this ballgame against the Titans. Um, will I have a, an entry or two in survivor on them? Yes. Me too. But- I will have at least one on the Broncos...
20:30
uh, because it is, after all, a rookie quarterback in his first game, in elevation, against a great Broncos defense. So there's that. So it's hard not to play them at all.
20:39
Uh, w- again, what could possibly go wrong, right? But, uh, let me go to, uh, to Tanner, who is, uh, Dr. Bob's right-hand man, and the stat that he gave, if I can find it right now. I wanna, I wanna be exact about it.
20:52
Denver at home, weeks one and two, going all the way back to 1980. Denver at home, since 1980, weeks one and two. 42 and 10 straight up. So for survivor players, good to know. 42 and 10 straight up.
21:09
And it makes sense, right? Intuitively. Not all trends make sense, but this one does because it's guys who are used to the elevation against guys who are not. Mm-hmm. Coming off an off-season.
21:18
Now, as far as against the spread, though, here's the deal. Since 1980, weeks one and two, at home for the Broncos. 31, 18 and three overall ATS, which sounds great, but here's the breakdown.
21:32
17, four and three when they're three-point favorites or lower. In other words, three-point th- favorites all the way to being an underdog.
21:41
Only 14 and 14 against the spread when a favorite of greater than three points weeks one and two since 1980. Thank you to Dr. Bob. Thank you to Tanner for that. So there you go for the Titans and Broncos.
21:54
Teaser leg and survivor for me, Gil. Okay. By the way, I'm seeing a lot of nines on this game as well. Yeah, they're sa- the teaser protection has started early. Teaser protection. They don't, they don't care.
22:03
Uh, they don't care about if they mo- uh, moving their teaser prices. They're still gonna hang a go to nine real quick. So this was gonna be a contest play. I n- I'm, I'm happy I never bet it. Uh, Niners at Seahawks.
22:14
Niners are two-and-a-half point favorites. Christian McCaffrey only on the sidelines yesterday. Is this already starting with the Niners? Dude, sounds like it, man. It sounds like- Good God...
22:21
I mean, th- this was enough to make this game move. This is two, one and a half or two everywhere now. I, I said yesterday I was gonna be adding. Or I had a bet on the Niners.
22:30
I said yesterday I was gonna be adding to that at some point. Well... Um, I haven't bought off my original bet, but, uh, sure ain't adding right now. Jeez. It's already happening, Niners.
22:40
That also could end up being one of the most played sides in millions now, Seahawks. Could be, right, 'cause of the stale Wednesday. Yeah. That's right.
22:47
Lions at Packers, also, uh, one of the four afternoon games in week one. I am on the Lions. Got 'em at plus two and a half. I have 'em in a teaser with the Falcons.
22:57
I actually have a three, uh, team teaser as well with the Eagles last night, but I do have a two-teamer as well with the Lions and the Falcons. Again, I, I've, I've said it on the Megapod.
23:05
I think I said it here yesterday. I just feel like that Washington destruction of Detroit in the playoffs has kind of soured people on the Lions in a way that I feel is a bit irrational. I do concede.
23:16
Uh, they don't have their offensive coordinator or their defensive coordinator from last year. No Johnson, no Glenn. So that could rear its head. The offensive line has big, uh, changeover. And yet,
23:27
I still don't get why they're two-and-a-half-point dogs against the Packers. I'll believe it with the Packers when I see it. So Lions for me. Contest. It's a bet. It's a teaser leg. All of that. Yeah, nothing for me.
23:37
Slightly into the over here, but I will just be... Have fun watching this one. All right, one more afternoon game, the two primetime games, and are we sure? Next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN's exclusive betting splits cut through the noise, pulling real-time data straight from Circa, DraftKings, sportsbooks.
24:07
Circa caters to sharp bettors and big wagers, while DraftKings reflects the broader public market, giving you a unique look at both sides of the action.
24:14
Track the percentage of bets and handle on every game across every major sport, so you can make sharper, more informed bets. Start your edge today for just $9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe. Let's go to Alex An.
24:26
Kevin's fiddling alongside. We got tweets and Betty the book. Uh, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. This is from Xavier82. "Of the undefeated teams," he was talking baseball September here.
24:36
He says, "Even though I'm invested in the Cubs this month, keep it going, Rays. My family are all White Sox fans, sadly. But go away, Guardians. Just keep losing." [laughs] Yes, he was all over the place on that one.
24:46
Uh, the Guardians just hanging around. I have the, uh, season win total under on the Guardians. I also have the adjusted season win. The adjusted season win is fine. That's at 87 and a half.
24:56
But the, uh, my, my favorite pre-flop- Season win total in baseball was the under on the Guardians, and they are, what are they, 500 exactly? What are they, one game under 500 now?
25:07
Uh, one game under 500 are the Guardians. They are 69 and 70, which means, what's that? They have 23 games left. But, like, they, they have the, uh, the run differential of a 62-win team.
25:19
So this is a needless sweat, and they're making us sweat the rest of the way. Gotta get under 82 and a half, so we're still in the driver's seat on this. Yeah, uh, who's got... Uh, so Burke's gonna buy you dinner?
25:30
Burke would have to buy me dinner. If, if they go over, I would have to buy Burke dinner. Yeah. I'm gonna send him a, uh, I'm gonna send both of you a Texas Roadhouse, uh, gift card right now. [laughs] Thanks so much.
25:40
Can you personalize it and put your face on it? Down be- Yeah, y- absolutely. It's saved. Don't worry. Texas Roadhouse has it saved for me. Last name Nash.
25:46
"Sportsbook's going to minus 135 on six-point teasers is pitch made. That's pitch, but really it's with a B." [laughs] That's great. Oh, I like it. Uh, let's see.
25:56
Oh, and, and Futures Bet BP says, "Just thought this was a good time to say Pritch, please." Yes. It, well- When-... it is a good time- Whenever, uh- Oh, that made me sad...
26:04
whenever I used to do, uh, segments with Mike Pritchard, I would always stop in the middle of something and go, "Pritch, please." We were gonna make it a segment. Oh, remember that? Yeah.
26:11
It was just gonna be the whole segment. We were gonna put graphics- Yeah... and everything up there. Ah. A little mismanagement like that. I like Pritch. Oh, Mike. Oh. Oh, we just had a moment, but we just had a moment.
26:18
I ran into him a couple weeks ago. Yeah. But... Love Pritch. Love Pritch. Uh, last afternoon game, Texans at the Rams. Rams are favored by three in what is a, uh, sneaky good game. Yes.
26:30
I mean, in a, in a schedule that has the Lions-Packers and the Bills-Ravens, among other games- Mm-hmm... that's a sneaky good one. The, another one I'm beyond fascinated to watch, right?
26:39
How good will this Texans defense be? How good can the Texans offensive line be? Is it gonna be as big of a disaster as everybody expects? What's, uh, Stafford gonna look like?
26:48
What's Stafford gonna look like with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua out there? Uh, fun game. I bet the under yesterday, actually f- under 46. More totals for me this week than you're gonna normally see. Uh, under 46, I...
26:59
Look, I think Texans defense is great. I think the Rams D's pretty good, and if Stafford is banged up or limited at all, uh, that offense could have issues.
27:06
Oh, by the way, Roger Jones puts out a great tweet there, uh, 'cause of the weather delay yesterday. He goes, "I'm sure this will have been mentioned," It hasn't been, Roger.
27:12
He goes, "before you get this, but just in case, the Super Bowl between the Niners and the Ravens seemed to be affected by the delay. Not sure it could be considered a weather delay, though." No.
27:20
No, it was a, a lighting delay. I was in- And there's all kinds of conspiracy theories about it. I was in attendance for that, Gil. Yeah. Uh, it was terrifying. Really? Uh, we all thought it was...
27:29
I was, I, I was in a press box when it happened. Oh, wow. I mean, everybody thought it was terrorist related or something- Wow... like, 'cause no- m- nobody...
27:36
I mean, when had you ever seen lights go out like that in a stadium? Well, you know, all- You all, everybody immediately thought the worst. It w- it was a scary couple minutes.
27:44
I had the Ravens, and I wasn't thinking about that at all. I was like, "Are you kidding me?" [laughs] There's a whole bunch of that. Uh, watching it with Niners fans, by the way, who were like, "Crabtree got flat.
27:53
He, he got- [laughs]... in- interfered with." I was like, "Shut up." Uh, okay, Sunday night. By the way, Texans-Ra- Rams for me, completely I'm just gonna sit and watch.
28:02
I just, I don't, I don't purport to know anything about anything, but certainly not about this game. Sunday night, Ravens-Bills, marquee matchup of the week. Ravens, one-point favorites now, at the Buffalo Bills.
28:12
You and me are gonna be oppo on this. I'm on the Ravens. They will be a contest pick. They will be a bet for me as well. Yeah, right now it's, it's the Bills teased up for me.
28:22
Uh, but I, I will m- I, I will repeat exactly what I told you during the break. If I have a good Sunday, I'm gonna probably end up with a irresponsible amount of money on this Buffalo side.
28:31
I, all, all I have heard is everybody, everybody I respect, including the great Gil Alexander this week, talk about the Ravens and how terrible of a matchup this is for Buffalo.
28:40
I need, I need my guy Fezzik to come in here and explain the m- the market side of this. You're catching a point at home with the Buffalo Bills, who I d- e- we're saying this is three, four on a neutral.
28:52
I don't have that big of a separation between these two teams. So I, I, from a...
28:56
This might not even be a contest selection for me, Gil, but from a betting standpoint, you're gonna give me even money or plus money on a money line with Buffalo, I'll be on it. So I, I just counted.
29:05
I had four contest picks, so I need a fifth. The Niners were gonna be the fifth. Now I don't. Now I have to search for a fifth. I don't know if I can do the Niners anymore. All right, last one. Yeah, good point.
29:13
I don't know if I can either, but I'm probably gonna have to between Bu- bu- I just said that about Buffalo and San Francisco. I'm probably gonna have to pick one of them. Last one, Monday Night Football.
29:21
Now, I know I'm the first person to say this. I hate how many times people say, "Oh, it's a must-win situation." As Dr.
29:29
Bob says, who's gonna join us momentarily, uh, "If you're in a must-win situation, you must not be that good." Well, to me, this is the bizarro must-win game of the week.
29:38
Because I think if you lose this game between the Vikings and the Bears, it could start a horrible spiral into oblivion for your season. This is a great point. Vikings-Bears.
29:49
Vikings are one-and-a-half-point road favorites at Chicago, uh, w- in a division that's, uh, that it is assumed, you know what they say about assuming, that the Lions and Packers, pick your order, are the better two teams.
29:59
Now, there's a lot of, uh, a lot of disparity in terms of what we've heard about people's opinions on the Vikings. Big variance on that. I have season win total alt unders on both of these teams.
30:10
And so, um, because I do think there's a bad tail to both of their seasons given their schedules and given their talent levels.
30:18
So this is a, in, in my opinion, a bizarro must-win because I think if you lose this opener against the worst opponent in your division, oh boy, it could go bad quick.
30:29
I, I mean, the narrative around whatever team loses- Yeah... especially Chicago. But whichever, what- whichever team loses. Well, uh, is it es- you're right. It's probably especially Chicago- Because of Caleb Williams...
30:38
'cause people like to crap on Caleb. Yeah. But if it's J.J. McCarthy and he plays badly, it's bad that way, too. It is. Yeah. So- I agree with you.
30:45
I mean, it's a very competitive, we expect it to be a competitive, tough division. So yeah, whoever lo- But I think almost everybody agrees that's third, third and fourth best team in the division.
30:53
Whoever loses that, not gonna be a good look. Let's do some more are we sure? Estamos seguros? No worry You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure?
31:05
I'm positive Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? [upbeat music] All right. Steve Fezzik texts in, "Baltimore will win," and he's gonna explain why.
31:17
Balti- We got that to look forward to. Yeah, there we go. Steve Fezzik will explain it. [laughs] We don't even have to watch the game now. Don't even have to watch it. [laughs] Fezzik's gonna explain it to us.
31:24
There it is. Chalk up a win. All right, Gil, are we sure, I'm gonna jump around here a bit, are we sure the Eagles can win this division if the defense continues to look like it did last night?
31:34
Uh- Carved up left and right by Dak Prescott...
31:35
I, I mean, not, not if they, not if they look like that I guess they wouldn't win, but I still think they're the division favorites and they're one and O, and I have never wavered, right?
31:44
Despite being a Washington guy, I've never wavered on the fact that I think the Eagles are gonna be the first back-to-back NFC East winner in a quarter of a century.
31:50
But no, th- I mean, listen, again, that was my biggest takeaway from that game, besides spitting and besides what, you know, the fact that it didn't go over, which was almost miraculous for, for the under bettors, is that I'm worried about the lack of adjustments on offense for the Eagles.
32:06
That worried me more than the defense, 'cause the defense didn't have Jalen Carter. So I, I can't really make a proper evaluation of the defense.
32:13
So I wanna say that, but at the same time, man, I, uh, it, there's a lot of pieces on that D and, and I was surprised at the Dallas offensive line really pushing those guys around seemingly all night.
32:25
Yeah, but that's how good he is. Yeah. Um, okay. Are we sure the Cowboys aren't a playoff team in the NFC? Yes, we're sure. Stop it. Don't know if I'm 100% sure, but I'm 95% sure, yeah. All right.
32:36
Are we sure the Broncos is the safest play in Survivor this week? Hmm. Ye- [clears throat] yes, but not by the margin that one might think. 'Cause there is a world, right, where the Titans... We talked about the Titans.
32:52
The Titans had horrible quarterback play last year. That torpedoed their season time and time again. Will Levis was just atrocious.
33:00
So if Cam Ward is even, like, better than average and everything else remains the same, that's a big if, but you get the idea, the Titans could be a respectable football team. But it is elevation. It is the Broncos.
33:11
It is an opener with that defense. They're probably the safest play, but I w- If, if the Bengals roll, if, you know, some other teams there that are big favorites roll, it wouldn't shock me.
33:25
But yes, to answer your question, they're the safest play. Are we sure we're all gonna be able to live with this new world of the NFL RedZone with commercials? Oh, I'm so glad you brought this up.
33:36
Yes, because as it turns out, what we found out, and I don't know why Scott Hanson went on McAfee- This was so weird... and, and made a big deal of this, and everyone lost their minds. You know what it is in the end?
33:46
It's four 15-second commercials in a seven-hour window, and the commercials don't even take up the whole screen. Yeah. What are we talking about? It's the golf commercials. Who cares?
33:59
So you're not even gonna notice that. You're not, you're not, you're not. What was Scott Hanson thinking? I'm not even gonna blame it all on them. What are the E- what was ESPN and the NFL thinking?
34:08
You had to know this w- you had to have a plan, right? Right. You had to know people were gonna be concerned- Yes... about the commercials.
34:14
You should, as soon as that, uh, deal was announced, you should have been a, had a statement about this immediately and what it was g- actually gonna be like. What a botch by them. People assumed the worst. Yeah.
34:24
Scott Hanson goes on McAfee, and then they basic- he basically confirmed the, uh, people's, uh, worst, uh, w- worst thoughts, and then it comes, and then we finally get details yesterday. Not that big a deal.
34:34
That was, uh, how can I put this? Stupid, is what that was. None of us are gonna notice a damn thing. We'll do more Are We Sure later- Mm-hmm... but first, Dr. Bob, one college play, one pro play. He's next.
34:46
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:48
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:06
Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billings alongside everybody. Hey. How p- how the feeling of football is just different from the feeling of any other time of year.
35:17
Oh, it's so great. So great. Um- I even, I even expected to be exhausted this morning, but no, I'm not, Gil, 'cause we got another game tonight. Another game tonight. Just getting jacked up for it. Let's go. Sao Paulo.
35:28
Uh, we got tweets made in the book. Roger Jones about the, uh, ripping up the tickets thing. He goes, "Guys, years ago we had four or five guys drive down south to visit the tele-theater and bet some races.
35:37
We had a show parlay going with about $60 on it. Horse ran fourth. In disgust, I ripped... In disgust, I ripped the ticket into 50 pieces and shoved it into a beer bottle. About five minutes go by. Objection.
35:48
One of the riders claimed foul. Waiting for the result of the inquiry," and our horse- Oh... "was promoted to third. Had to go outside, smash the bottle, put the puzzle back together. Live and learn."
35:56
By the way, I should mention that the... if this happens to you in a sports book- Wait, wait, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Is that the conclusion of that story? That was the conclusion of that story. They...
36:04
And they took that? Well, I'm, I'm about to tell you. In, in a sports book, if you lose your, if you rip up your ticket, right? And you throw it, let's say you throw it in a bin- Mm-hmm...
36:14
as long as someone else doesn't get to your ticket first and cash it- Right... in, in a similar situation- Right...
36:20
where something gets reversed, you can walk up to the ticket, to the ticket window that you made your bet at, tell them, "Hey, I had this team minus these points.
36:31
This happened with the objection, 55 minute," you know, whatever the thing was in these rare circumstances in sports where it gets overturned, "Uh, but I threw away my ticket.
36:39
I made it at this time and at, for this amount of money." They will pay you out. Everyone? As long as somebody doesn't get your ticket beforehand that you ripped up, the wa- what do you call them?
36:51
The waste basket, uh, divers or whatever. Yeah. As long as someone doesn't cash that ticket before you do, they will pay you.
36:58
So you would've had to have given, at least given them a player's card then or something- You-... so they could confirm. No, I've done it before without a... I...
37:05
Years ago at the Hard Rock, there was a game between the San Francisco Giants in Col- and the Colorado Rockies at Colorado. I had a- A, an over ticket, right? The game was, uh, or I had an under ticket.
37:16
Either way, it doesn't matter. The game was soaring either way. I think I, it was, I think it was soaring over. I, I knew I was gonna lose, right? 'Cause I had the under.
37:24
Then a, a freak windstorm came into Coors Field, and they couldn't finish the game, and so I was entitled to a refund even though it was a losing day.
37:33
I said, "Hey, I bet this amount on the Giants-Rockies game at this time from this window." And they're like, "Oh, yeah, yeah, we got a record of that. Here you go." Wow, okay. Yeah. You can do that.
37:44
I'm just letting you know. Hey, Benson, I bet, like, 10 large on the Cowboys last night, but I lost my ticket. [laughs] Just, if you could have, if those guys could have that ready.
37:51
They, they'd be like, "Sadly, we don't have a record of that, Kelly Bidlin." [laughs] Dr. Bob joins us now from just outside of Denver.
37:57
He is a pioneer in the sports betting industry, a man who uses his mathematical model and some technical analysis to predict the outcome of sporting events. You can follow him on Twitter @DRBobSports. That's Dr.
38:09
Bob Sports, or drbobsports.com. How you doing, Bob? Good morning. How about them Cowboys? That my first NFL bet of the year cash as you got... That's a good omen, I hope. There you go. There we go. Nice.
38:21
Um, you probably could've, they almost won it outright. Maybe should have, for God sakes. Yeah. Yeah, that fumble, I thought, "Oh, no. Is this gonna come back and haunt me?" But it did not.
38:29
That fumble when they were in field goal range or in ter- you know, Philly territory. Uh, but it did not come back to haunt me, and they, yeah, dropped passes, and yeah, they, they played well. Ugh, the dropped passes.
38:40
The CeeDee Lamb epidemic of dropped passes, uh, in addition. Uh, so let me, uh, let's as- let me just say this. Last week, uh, was a great representation of, uh, the, the just great luck you have on this show.
38:51
What is your career record on this show, Bob? Oh, I, I, let's put it this first. I'm 55% over many, many years on all football plays, but on this show, on football plays since you've been on, I'm 123 and 93.
39:04
That is a 57% win rate. You are a 2% boost. Yes. It's what I am.
39:10
It's what people- And last week- So the- Last week was a great example because I gave out Utah State as the play on this show last week, the only play I gave out aside from the win totals.
39:18
Utah State handled UTEP pretty handily.
39:22
And, uh, I had a bad week, but the o- I, well, I lost, you know, when you lose four games by, you go O and four in games decided by five points or less, you're gonna have a bad week. But I won the play I gave out here.
39:33
So even in a, even in a down week, I still, you still give me the luck. Thank you very much. Kelly, what, what lady has not said that to you before? You, Kelly Bidlin, are a 2% boost. Oh, yes, everyone. Everyone.
39:44
Every one of them. Okay. Bob, let's start with your college football this week. Um, what did you land on here? Well, I know the game. You'll tell us which way you're going. Arkansas State at Arkansas.
39:54
Arkansas coming off a big win over, was it Alabama A&M, that football powerhouse, last week? Uh, SEMO, Southeast Missouri. Oh, what did I, what was I looking at? Duh.
40:05
I'm, I believe it, I believe it was Southwest Missouri, unless I'm mistaken, but nonetheless, Arkansas State beat up on an FCS team. It might have been A&M, but now you got me wondering if I, if I wrote it down.
40:16
It was Alabama, it was Alabama A&M. Yeah. Oh, Alabama A&M. Yeah. Okay. Um, despite, uh, you know, they, it, it, they won that game 42 to 24. The offense played well. Jalen Raynor played well.
40:30
But giving up 24 points in that game is a horrible result. Uh, I do think Raynor's improved this year.
40:37
Last year, um, he only averaged 5.7 yards per pass play for the Red Wolves against teams that would allow 6.8 yards per pass play to an average FBS quarterback. So he was 1.1 yards per pass play worse than average.
40:48
He was better than that the year before, and has been better than that this year, just a little bit below average quarterbacking. But Arkansas State cannot run the ball, and Arkansas stuffs the run.
40:59
So they're gonna force Raynor into a lot of obvious passing situations which he did not have to face last week. And, uh, I think Arkansas's defense is, is, is gonna do a good job here.
41:10
They're also better than average against the pass, but they really stuff the run, setting up those third and longs. So I think it's gonna be a long day for Arkansas State's offense.
41:17
Now, on the other side of the ball, uh, Arkansas State's defense is horrible.
41:23
They gave up 5.4 yards per play last week against a team that would average only 4.4 yards per play on the road against an average FBS defense. So that's 1.0 worse than average.
41:32
I had them going into the season at 1.1 yards per play worse than average, so they played to form last week.
41:37
And Arkansas, balanced attack, I don't think they'll be quite as good as they were last year, but they'll be close. Jalen Green is back at quarterback.
41:44
They always have athletes, uh, uh, out on the wide receiver position and, and, and at running back.
41:49
So I think they'll be close to as good as they were last year, and I think they'll move the ball consistently well in this game. And I also think they're gonna run the score.
41:57
First of all, they love the games in Little Rock. The, the fans get excited about that once-a-year game. And I, from my, my Arkansas insider, he told me this after I'd released the game already. Ooh.
42:06
I already had, liked Arkansas. But he says, he says the boosters... First of all, Arkansas State has been, has been chirping at Arkansas for years to play this game. I think this is the first time they've ever played.
42:19
And they even, "You, you, you're afraid to play us. You're afraid to play us." Arkansas's like, "Fine, we'll schedule you."
42:25
[laughs] And so the boosters apparently, uh, apparently the boosters have told Sam, and he, my friend's a booster, has told Sam Pittman to run up the score if he can- Oh... just to shut them up.
42:36
So I said, "Oh, well, that can't hurt." I already released the play, and he caught wind that I released the play 'cause he subscribes.
42:41
[laughs] He goes, "By the way, there's a lot of talk amongst our boosters that," you know, telling Pittman to run it up. So if they can, they will.
42:48
And also, KG Jackson's the backup quarterback, so if it does get out of hand, I think they'll continue to, to score.
42:53
So I t- I have Arkansas by 27 and a half, and there's a, a, a Game two situation that's 39 and three against the number over the years, so that, that doesn't hurt either.
43:02
So I like the value, and the situation, I think, is good. Um, so Arkansas minus 23 or less, and right now it's sitting at 23, and even a half-unit bet up to minus 24. Okay. There you go.
43:13
For all the reasons mentioned, and those were some great ones, uh, including that big, uh, subset that, uh, Bob will not reveal exactly what it is. But what was it, 32 and three you said? What was it? 32 and three?
43:24
39, 39, 39 and three. 39 and three at a week two subset, uh, from the database. Okay.
43:30
Um, Arkansas minus 23 against Arkansas State, goaded into playing their in-state, uh- And I won't even say rivals, but just another in-state school. Detroit at Green Bay in the National Football League.
43:42
What's your play here? Yeah, I like, I like the under, and I, and I released the under at 48 and a half. And I was already determined that I was gonna play the under before Micah Parsons was traded.
43:53
So this was already gonna be a play, and then Parsons got traded. The line went down from 49 to 48 and a half. I didn't want it to go down any more, so I fired it to clients at under 48 and a half.
44:02
Now the line is down to 47. I still see good value to bet this game. Um, obviously Parsons is one of the best pass rushers in the league, and he's valued at 1.6 points if he played the full game.
44:14
He's not gonna play the full game. So let's just say it's half a point, because he'll probably just play on the critical late downs. So a half a point boost for having Parsons on the defense.
44:22
Um, but this bet mostly based on the assessment that the Lions' defense is now better than the Lions' offense. So I think the Lions' offense is gonna relatively struggle, and the defense is gonna be much better.
44:33
Jared Goff has been the beneficiary of two of the league's best play callers throughout his career, um, and he's averaged 6.8 yards per pass play in his career.
44:42
Goff had Sean McVay in Los Angeles after a terrible rookie season. Then McVay comes along. Uh, Goff all of a sudden is not a bust. He becomes a Super Bowl-participating quarterback. And then he gets traded to Detroit.
44:55
Now in the first half of 2021 season, Goff struggled. He only averaged five and a half yards per pass play. Anthony Lynn was the offensive coordinator.
45:02
They fired him at mid-season and put Ben Johnson in place to play calls, to call the plays, and the rest is history. Ben Johnson's one of the best play callers in the league.
45:11
Well, Ben Johnson is now with the Chicago Bears, and I don't see the new offense coordinator John Morton as a genius level, um, play caller.
45:19
So I like the under in this game for other reasons we won't get to, but Aidan Hutchinson being back certainly helps a team that finished seventh in EPA per play last season. Now they have their best player back.
45:28
So the under in the Detroit-Green Bay game. Dr. Bob, ladies and gentlemen, @drbobsports on Twitter, drbobsports.com on the World Wide Web. Thank you, Bob. Appreciate it. Yep. No problem. Steve Fezzik on the other side.
45:43
It's a numbers game right here at VSiN.
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