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Sep 5, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 5, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | September 5, 2025 | Hour 3
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45:44
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Transcript
0:00
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0:56
They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:03
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. Sure do appreciate y'all, uh, taking us in this morning.
1:14
Very grateful as always for making us part of your morning. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlan behind the glass on hour number three of a Friday. Why? Because it's time for Fezzik Fridays, y'all.
1:27
Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. Oh, yeah. I don't know if you guys know this.
1:36
The only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. Has that ever come up before? Um, Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen, in studio.
1:43
Uh, Stevie, you are the first ever Survivor player to get knocked out without ever having entered Survivor with the Eagles win over the- [laughs] It, it's devastating... over the Cowboys.
1:51
[laughs] It's just devas- So th- th- the reason being is I was gonna come in and max bet my 10 Survivors, get my wife to put in 10. Yeah. Go crazy because, uh, in the Westgate, they got, like, 100 people in the Survivor.
2:04
28 people took the Eagles, all right? Now, I don't think it'll be that high here in the circuit contest, but certainly, you know, with the Eagles, g- g- to be fair, the line did steam up to minus eight.
2:14
That c- that corroborates- So that changes-... what your opinion, what your prediction was, that, that it would be a higher percentage than most thought on the Eagles.
2:21
Well, it, it, I, I, I s- But, but Circa has the Thanksgiving quirk. I, I- That's the problem... I don't want, I don't think, I don't think we should use the word corroborate.
2:27
I, I think I g- I got lucky that the Parsons trade happened. In, in terms of I predicted that- Yeah... there would be a sizable, un- a, a not insignificant amount on the Eagles.
2:37
Now, when the spread was seven, like you said, the fact that the, um... You, you wanna say the Eagles, so maybe only 7% of the people are gonna take the Eagles.
2:45
But when the line goes up to eight, maybe it was, it's gonna be 11%. Yeah. We'll see. It'll be a significant percentage. But now when I'm entering- Yeah, now you're done. [laughs] I'm behind. These guys are 1-0.
2:53
This 11%- [laughs]... or 9%, I don't care, or 7% that took the Eagles, I'm losing. They have advanced. It's like, it's, it's like Squid Games.
3:01
They have made it across the gla- the glass bridge, and I have to try to navigate it now. You're done. So what are you gonna do? You gonna get two entries? What are you gonna do? Two or three, yeah. Two or three.
3:10
And probably I'll end five in, in the millions. Yeah. You're, you're so upset about this. I don't wanna be, I don't wanna be, I don't... The fear of missing out, I don't wanna be locked out.
3:16
[laughs] A- and it's, and there's so much dead money. I mean, there's people that won't turn in their plays. There's people that will [laughs] play the underdog, you know, in week two in some games.
3:26
Uh, you have to still enter.
3:28
What do you, what do you feel about these, uh, folks who are gonna take a, uh, favorite of less than three points, um, say in, in week one, thinking, "Okay, i- if you start with the premise that nobody knows anything," some people are gonna go, quote, unquote, "contrarian" and take some plays that are not among the favorites.
3:45
What do you say to those people? Not a fan. Not a fan. Um, oh, they're having fun. Hey, have fun. You know, come to Vegas and, you know, bet the hard ways on the craps table or whatever.
3:55
It's, it's, it's, it's basically the same thing. Oh, and here's why. Because you gotta... It's a 20-team parlay. You gotta hit a 20-team parlay to win this thing. Mm-hmm. Probably.
4:04
Maybe, maybe there's a lot of upsets and only an 18-team parlay, who knows? But probably gonna have to go the whole way. And it's a lot easier to hit a 20-team parlay when you're playing 77% chances each and every week.
4:17
When you start putting in fif- 50/50 chances, my goodness, it's gonna be difficult. And I don't... If a, if a game is pick 'em, you know what?
4:24
If, if, if you truly feel, "Hey, that team's gonna win 60%," putting them in your Survivor entry is probably the worst possible way to invest $1,000 in that.
4:33
Just bet $1,000, um, at pick 'em and, and, and invest in it that way. And you know what? You'll, you'll get your ticket cashed immediately instead of having to wait 19 weeks.
4:43
The bottom line is at the end of week one, there's probably gonna be... I'll, I'll simplify it. If there's gonna be, uh... I- if your ticket is worth $1,000 to start the season, it's probably only gonna be worth $1,500.
4:55
Do you really wanna, you know, go ahead and lay minus 200 on the Indianapolis Colts to win? That's essentially what you're doing.
5:02
I know y- and I know your past a little bit better, so maybe your ticket isn't worth 1,500. Maybe it's worth 1,625, but it's not worth more than 10% more than everyone else's.
5:11
Um, I don't know why this got triggered in my brain while you were talking about this. This is something different, but I'm always, uh, amused is not the word. I'm always, uh, interested when you have this to say.
5:21
When you are taking in sports betting content, you always say something drives you crazy.
5:26
When people say they have something in pocket, not necessarily that verbiage, but all I'm saying is, um, if that line is no longer available, this drives you crazy. It does, and I, I go purple Wishnev.
5:39
Full purple Wishnev, which if, for those who don't know, when Todd's on the mega pod, he filibusters and he just keeps talking and talking and talking- Doesn't take a breath... without taking any breaths. Yeah.
5:47
And he starts turning purple because he gets so upset- Wait, do we-... and the point is if- We have a li- we have a shot of this. Do you guys have that? Are we allowed to put that up again? Oh, yeah.
5:55
Yeah, we gotta- This is- We gotta, we gotta pull up purple Wishnev... this is Todd Wishnev, uh, looking, uh, looking quite purple on the mega pod. We'll throw that up there with him and Chance.
6:01
And, and, and the point is I'll, I'll use- There he is. There he is. Look at him. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So, like- I bet this morning Northwestern under 51-and-a-half. It's gonna be very windy on the wa- on the Lakeville.
6:11
Mm-hmm. But that can't be a best bet because I'm sure it's dropped, and it's probably 49 now. And for me to say I've got it in pocket doesn't do anyone any good.
6:19
And I tell my friend, um, Brad Feinberg, who's a, who's a genius guy, uh, Brad's, um... I forgot his Twitter [laughs] I'm sorry, Brad. Um, but he's, um, uh, I ask him, "Who do you like?"
6:30
And then, a- a- and I stopped asking him, I s- I said, "Current numbers, who do you like?" It doesn't help me any to go ahead and tell me a, a bet that you played that's long since donezo in terms of the line. Right.
6:42
But you understand that, that people are doing shows not just at the moment you tune in, that they're doing them previous days, and so we have a log of those that we, you know, "Oh, two days ago, I gave away," and we still put them up on the air.
6:54
Um, uh, where I will agr- so, so I don't completely agree with you because some people have already talked about it, right? And so hopefully you tuned in for that.
7:03
I, where I do agree with you is you will get some folks every once in a while who, "Huh, he always seems to be ahead of the line every time."
7:12
The survivorship bias is, is, is, it, it angers me to, to, to the point where what, what do I mean by survivorship bias? I gave out a crappy bet.
7:20
I gave out Chargers, Chiefs under 46 to my clients, and now it's 47 and a half. So I, I gave out a number that's worse than what the market number is. That's terrible, all right?
7:30
But what I'm saying is, like, people, like, they never talk about their bad bets. It's, it's unbelievable how it's, it, in pocket they all have Arizona minus four, you know?
7:41
Every- everyone, "Oh, yeah, I, I played that minus four." It, it- I would say it is 85% of their bets, they have beaten the closing line by two points.
7:50
But yet, Gil, I, I never hear the same people when they're actually on live giving me bets that are going to move going forward. So, except for Dr. Bob, who tends to, you know, be very predictive, like- Yeah...
8:02
like Arkansas will probably close 24 t- tomorrow. But for the- how is it that they're so good at getting all this closing line value on bets in pocket- Yeah... but then when they come on- No...
8:12
they're incapable of predicting a line move? Be- beware of the person who is 100% of the time ahead of a line. [laughs] Oh, my God. It just does not happen. Back to, back to Survivor for a second.
8:22
This just occurred to me, and for- forgive the stream of consciousness, but, uh, Grandissimo went over 50 entries, right? Who knows?
8:28
Maybe it ends up at 75 for all we know, 'cause there's, apparently there's a lot of poker money out there that's about to pounce here.
8:34
Um, I'm curious, you, you made a comment, "This is how we know there's a lot of soft money out there." What do you mean? Well, everyone can't have an advantage, right? Right.
8:45
I mean, it's a zero-sum game, and the fact that people are, you know, so willing to invest $100,000. And I thought you brought up a great example, that $100,000 to a Dana White- Yes...
8:57
is like you and I, you know, you know, dropping 50 for a lunch. It's our 100. Right. It, it, my- For those who don't know, I, I forgot to play Last Man Standing one year, because it was 100 bucks.
9:07
So 100, my 100 bucks is Dana White's 100,000 bucks or whatever the multiple is, right? Exactly. So yeah, so somebody could forget. Yeah. Someone could forget to put it in- Yeah... or someone could just wing in.
9:17
They're just having a good time, and they're having fun, and they're gonna... And, and, it, it, I get it.
9:22
There's gonna be some very serious people that are mapping out optimal, you know, strategies and paths and, you know, one thing I'll say w- with, with Survivor, it's rarely wrong doing this, just a square ball strategy of saying, "I'm gonna take a really big favorite of a team that's not that good," you know?
9:39
That's, that, that's rarely gonna be, not be like, like, Denver qualifies. Mm-hmm. Denver's not an elite team. They're, I think they're elite, but most people don't.
9:47
But the fact, like, um, I don't think you can go wrong playing Denver, and here's why. If you wanna be contrarian and say, "Everyone's gonna take Denver, I'm gonna go the other route," then that makes a lot of sense.
9:59
But, but this, these, these contests are full of contrarians. Everyone wants to be too cool for school. They all wanna play the non-optimal path, because they wanna be clever.
10:08
Well, so we had this discussion yesterday, Kelly and I, which is in Circa Survivor Classic, if you will, which has, what, 17,000 entries now, something like that? Mm-hmm. I haven't looked back there.
10:17
16,000-plus yesterday. Um, you, you are incentivized to go contrarian. I wanna get back to Grandissimo for a second. This is le- this is fewer than 100 entries, right?
10:28
When all is said and done, it's gonna be fewer than 100 entries, we believe. You are not incentivized, despite the entry fee, right, $100,000 entry fee. Despite that, you are not incentivized to go contrarian.
10:39
At least, you know, not unless you see a specific situation late where you know what the other person's gonna do, whatever. But generally speaking, you should be as conservative as possible, right?
10:49
Well, y- because you don't, yes, because you don't know how, how long you're gonna have to go. Yes. You might see the champion on November 18th, right? I mean- You might be... with only 50 people.
10:57
Do you, do you think Gr- Joe Pita and I were talking, we're throwing this around. Do you think Grandissimo lasts till Thanksgiving? Yes, but it's gonna be close. So I, my initial reaction was no. Hmm.
11:10
And then he said it will, and, and I b- and I agree with him now, which is he thinks there will be, like, two people left that will almost go mano a mano down the stretch for, like, a few weeks.
11:23
And I think he's probably right. Well, let's do the math. So you've got about a 50/50 shot to survive two weeks. So- Yeah... so if you start with 100, after two weeks, we got 50. After four weeks, we got 25.
11:33
After six weeks, we got, um, uh, I just, I just messed up, so 50 di- 12. After eight weeks, we got six. Uh, after 10 weeks, we got three. So w- it, basically it's 50/50- Yeah... to get, to get past Thanksgiving. Right.
11:46
And that's assuming a 70.7% chance of winning every week. I heard a rumor that somebody in Survivor Classic is attempting c- to, to control some obscene number of entries.
11:59
To use your math example, to the point where even if they went oppo on all their entries, they could almost get through three-quarters of the NFL season. Sure.
12:07
And, and then that would be a horrible strategy because- Yes, it would be... because all those oppo picks would be like, you have nor- enormous negative EV compared to- Right... everyone else.
12:15
And- I'm, I'm just giving you the- Right, right... the outlandish example. Uh, but, but it does- Yeah...
12:18
make sense that if you have a, a whole bunch of entries, I mean, ideally, um, you know, you could use that since you s- The, the extreme example would be there's, there's five s- five entries left and you have two of them, right?
12:29
Yep. And then, and then the last week, everyone's an eight-point favorite. You'd say, "I'm gon- I'm, I'm not gonna duplicate. I'm gonna play two different eight-point favorites and be more diverse."
12:38
Coming back with Steve Fezzik, his thoughts on wh- why Baltimore is gonna win Sunday night. First of all, tell us that, and something he said on the Megapod was interesting. That's next.
12:45
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:01
By the way, Caleb Williams, just to add a stat, 20, last year, 27% pressure to sack ratio, third-highest in the league, and even with a clean pocket, second lowest EPA in the NFL.
13:12
You know, one thing to watch for this Monday night game is how the Lions do. All right? I think there's a correlation.
13:18
So if the Lions play very well on Sunday, then we, I think we can conclude maybe Ben Johnson wasn't that important. Oh, come on.
13:27
[laughs] That's, uh, that's from the Megapod, by the way, the Beating the Book Megapod available where you get all of your podcasts.
13:34
Uh, our week one episode, live from the Wynn, Steve Fezzik and I, Steve was the rotating guest this week. We're at the Wynn at the Sirius Studios, and that, uh, "Oh, come on" at the end [laughs] was from Todd Wisniewski.
13:46
Uh, Steve, explain this to folks.
13:48
So what you were talking about, just to refresh your memory, 'cause I'm not sure if you heard it, uh, on the Megapod, you brought up correlation between the Lions-Packers game Sunday afternoon and the Monday-nighter between the Vikings and the Bears.
14:01
Explain. Yeah, so the, um, the Lions' offensive coordinator becomes the Bears' head coach, right? And by all accounts, he is God. He's great, right? So
14:12
should have a very negative impact on Detroit and a positive impact on the Bears. All right? But we're not sure. So let's watch this Lions game.
14:20
Let's say the Lions just stink on offense, and they're, and they play a really bad game against Green Bay, then our hypothesis is being confirmed here that this dude's really important, and he really is a great coach.
14:32
Mm-hmm. And I'm now more bullish on the Bears. However, let's say the Lions upset the Packers, and it was, like, no big deal, and they're not even missing him. Well, now the Bears are still the Bears, right?
14:44
And what are they doing? You know, b- being pick 'em against the Vikings. So it's the case where I believe there's a strong correlation, Detroit to Minnesota or Green Bay to Chicago.
14:57
And Todd, Todd Wisniewski's, "Oh, come on," to you was because he feels like observing one game ought not lead you to that conclusion.
15:09
And I would agree with him if the Detroit-Green Bay data is, is, you know, close to the spread. We can't really glean anything from that. But if we get an extreme- Mm-hmm...
15:19
example, if we get [laughs] a North Carolina Tar Heel type of game against TCU, if we get a complete one-way train blowout in that game, I do think there's a clear correlation. That's a great clip from the Megapod.
15:31
I wanna see that on TikTok and Instagram. That's what I wanna see. Um, okay, Steve- Todd disagreeing with me. Yeah. What a, what a shocker. Rock. [laughs] I love, I love his willingness to not care about what...
15:40
Oh, come on. Um, about the other primetime game, Sunday night, uh, we talked about this earlier. Kelly and I were talking about Baltimore and, uh, Buffalo.
15:49
He and I are on opposite sides, and then we got a text from you midstream, where you're like, "I will come in, and I will tell you why Baltimore will win." Why, sir, are you so sure?
15:57
So revenge is meaningless for the most part in the NFL, but I actually think it's meaningful in this game because what a bad taste in the mouth of, um, Baltimore, and they come all the way back and, in a game they probably should've won anyways, and then they, Andrews drops the two-point conversion, and, and then they lose 25-27.
16:15
This, and this is their n- very next game they're playing.
16:18
So advantage Baltimore, and if you look at Buffalo, my goodness, um, I mean, you shouldn't be having cluster injuries week one of the NFL, but that's exactly what's happing- happening. So you got Tre'Davious White.
16:32
You know, their best cornerback is hurt, probably not gonna play. Benford, another cornerback, has a groin injury. He's gonna play. He's not gonna be 100%.
16:38
So I've got the team that has the immediate revenge, and Baltimore is an analytics darling. I mean, Baltimore s- somehow only won 12 and 5, but they were the best team in the NFL regular season- Yeah... last year.
16:50
Um, old-school YPP, yards per play, they outgained their opponent by, like, 1.6 yards per play. Buffalo's, like, a half yard per play. It's not even close.
16:59
Baltimore is the regular season champion, uh, so Baltimore's gonna win this game. Okay.
17:04
Uh, you also now, given the CMAC news, the Christian McCaffrey news where he did not participate in practice yesterday, this was enough to put you on the Seattle side. Absolutely. So I've, uh, and it's not just CMAC.
17:17
It, it's the Niners are having the same problems that they had last year. It's started already.
17:21
It's, I mean, obviously Ayuk's not gonna be back for a while, but, um, here's a team that is already crip- getting crippled with injuries.
17:28
It's interesting because normally we'd say, "Okay, on, on prop bets, we're gonna bet CMAC over because we got... Someone's gonna have to get these yar- these yards, right?"
17:36
And now he's compromised, a- and you gotta feel they're gonna have load management and not give him that many carries and that many touches. And so I've completely flipped.
17:46
I, I, I told my clients [laughs] "I'm sorry I gave you San Francisco during the summer-" Yeah... "minus one half," and last night I'm like, "Go ahead and bet Seattle plus two and TE Seattle." And, and that happens.
17:55
I mean, you gotta check your ego at the door. You can't be pot committed and say- Well-... "Hey, I really like one side"... and isn't this a great example of what you talk about with contests
18:06
The reason you put in picks at the deadline is 'cause you want perfect information. This is a great example of something that you might have made a pick one way, right?
18:15
But you get information between the lines, uh, between the lines being, uh, released for the contest and the deadline on Saturday. And so this is a great...
18:25
I'm, I'm, I haven't flipped to Seattle, but it certainly is taking me off San Francisco. And I, you know, I'm a proxy for someone, and they wanted to play, uh, because they wanted to play the Thursday night game.
18:34
And I was imploring them, you know, "You really should wait till Saturday." Oh, God. You're someone's proxy? Yeah. Oh, my God. You would be the most annoying proxy ever, 'cause you have opinions on stuff.
18:43
[laughs] No, I, I, I literally, you know, Greg Jones did a great job with Survivor, and, and, and I, to be fair, I think I dr- I drove poor Greg. How he put up with me- Oh, I have no idea... can you imagine?
18:55
Oh, I have no idea. Because I would be having these discussions with Greg, and he would throw out a team, and I, and, and, like, I, I, and I would try, like, my- Then I had to hear about it from you.
19:03
Oh, and so Gil and I are on- Yeah... like, the treadmill, and he, he sees me going to higher levels- [laughs]... because I'm getting so worked up- He's like, "Steve, okay"...
19:10
about how we can't play the Vikings this week. Yeah. And the, like, um, but, uh, but I, I mean, I, I s- so I submitted it, you know, with the Thursday game. But I, but now all of a sudden you got...
19:21
It's a great example with the San Francisco game. If you would've told me, "Who do I like?" two weeks ago, I like San Francisco. Well, now I like Seattle.
19:27
Um, college football, Kelly and I, we, we, uh, I remarked, I remarked on this the other day, and Kelly was like, "Oh, I'm so glad you brought this up," which is we've had a lot of college football people on the show this week, as we do every week during the, during the season.
19:39
And, you know, there's a billion... No, not a billion, but you get it. There's tons of college football games. And for whatever reason, almost everyone to a man has gone to this Duke-Illinois game- [laughs]...
19:50
with a pick. I don't, I don't recall ever really seeing this where some game, which is not the marquee matchup of a given week. It's- It's Duke-Illinois, for God's sakes. You have a play on this as well.
19:59
Now, is this a Stevie aggregation? Is that what this is? All, all of my college football is Stevie aggregation. Oh. For the most part.
20:04
Every, every now and then, what, like, I, I'll be, to be fair, I did give out the Northwestern under this, this morning, and that was a Stevie original. But, but that's because I went to Northwestern, so I'm paid.
20:12
But you, you're not, uh, recommending that one anymore. I would still lean- Okay... strongly into the under- Okay... whatever the number is. But just because, uh, windy, not excessively windy, 15 miles an hour.
20:21
But having lived there, I know there's wind gusts on the lake, and those, it's a temporary stadium, so the s- stands are so low, it's not gonna knock any of the wind down.
20:28
So all 15 mile an hour winds are not created equal. Mm-hmm. This is a case where if, if it is 15 miles an hour, it'll play a lot windier than a typical stadium.
20:37
Noted wind expert Michael Lombardi has shared that with us in the past. Mm. Crosswinds versus other winds. He violently disagreed with me on winds before. Yeah. Violently. Well, it was- I, uh, uh, but by the way- Sure...
20:48
the one game you should live wager is the windiest game because that's the one who- That's right...
20:52
probably gives you the biggest advantage, especially if you're betting quarters, and some team is getting the tailwind, and some team is going, you know, into, into the wind. But back to the, the, the Duke-Illinois.
21:01
The, um, I mean, every square ball is gonna say how... Illinois's good, you know?
21:05
I- Illinois's gonna win by more than three, and the fact that this line's leaking downward from three, and a couple two-and-a-halves are popping up, I think is extremely telling that, um, I think they head to overtime, and this is a pick'em type game, and Duke plus three is where the value is.
21:18
Uh, what about this thing that folks have been bantering about about quarterbacks who don't play a lot in the preseason as being a great fade opportunity in week one? This has started off well, right?
21:30
We, w- yes, but I think we can, we can attribute m- a lot of that to the weather in terms of, so you make four, you, you make two bets.
21:36
If a, if a quarterback, Stafford, for instance, for the Rams, doesn't play in preseason, you bet the team total for the Rams under, and you bet Stafford under for his passing yards, okay?
21:45
So if you did that last night, obviously you got ultra lucky on the team totals. You pushed with Talus under 20, and you won with the Eagles under 28.
21:54
Um, but both quarterbacks did indeed go, Dak only got, like, 188, and Hurts got under 200, so both the quarterbacks went well under. So basically two bets.
22:03
Um, and, and what's interesting about, like, the games this week is there's two games where both quarterbacks didn't play. So Buffalo, Baltimore, neither quarterback played in preseason.
22:13
And in the Atlanta game and Tampa Bay, neither quarterback, Penix and Baker, neither one played in the preseason.
22:19
So that would land you on the game under and each individual team total under and those quarterbacks under. Okay. Uh, who else is that apply- Detroit also applies, too, 'cause Goff didn't play a bunch, right? S- right.
22:29
Exactly. Um, Lamar Jackson, I guess? Well, well, yeah, that's the game we talked about, Buffalo. No, it's the Baltimore-Buffalo double. Right.
22:35
So you could just play the, you- Tampa Bay-Atlanta and Baltimore-Buffalo are doubles. So you just play the game under- Yeah... instead of the team totals under. But yeah, you, and you play the quarterbacks.
22:42
And it makes a lot of sense right now. What, the reason I love the Stafford the best is that he didn't just not play in preseason, he didn't even play in practice. Yeah. So you might consider playing his first...
22:52
And I like the first half under for these quarterbacks' pass yards to be ultra-rusty and to work them in and to run the ball more than they might normally.
22:59
Would you like to rail on this Las Vegas convention commercial before we go to break? Worst commercial in the history of Ve- I, you know what? So it, it, it, it's a musical. This gal is, like, playing the piano.
23:09
She's suddenly in Vegas, and she's, winds up on a gondola, you know, by the Venetian, and, and she, it doesn't look like she's having much fun, frankly, at all.
23:17
Contrast that to the Circa Time of Your Life commercials, where there are people at Stadium Swim, and there's people dancing, and they're in the pool.
23:25
[laughs] And they're seeing fireworks at the Legacy Club, and they're watching the big screens and, and the TV, and they're gambling. And I want, give me some Circa.
23:33
Fire everyone who made that commercial and hire the people that are making these great Circa commercials. Wow. Do that dance again, Steve. What was that? That's Steve Fezzik dancing, everybody.
23:42
Uh, Steve on why college football experts are smarter than pro football experts. That and more. We'll recap all the bets as well. It's the Numbers Game with VSiN.
23:49
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Ah, the voice of the legendary Brent Musburger, always a pleasure to hear that each and every intro into segment here at VSiN.
24:06
The NFL season is officially underway. The edge goes to those with the best data.
24:10
VSiN Pro delivers real-time DraftKings and Circa betting splits so you can see where the public and sharps are putting their money, adding an email recapping all the daily best bets from our show hosts and guests, 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app, and exclusive pro tools at vsin.com, and you've got everything you need to stay ahead all season.
24:24
Sign up now for just $9.99 or save 50% with an annual subscription. Visit vsin.com/subscribe today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, we get tweets. At Beating The Book, y'all are the best.
24:37
Ryan Hyatt, former, uh, silent producer of, uh, Primetime Action, says, "Happy Friday, y'all. We're claiming Dave Ross as an honorary Texan this week.
24:46
His loyalty to the Cowboys is impressive in the face of the slings and arrows coming from the likes of Gil." Oh, yeah, that's probably true. I, I'll, I'll accept that.
24:54
Steve, are you anxious to get to listeners quest- listener questions here momentarily? I am. I'm just contemplating Dallas' loss last night, but should their season win number of them or the Eagles move?
25:04
I would make the- No... I, I would make the case no, because Dallas outperformed and, and Philly underperformed, but that win's still significant.
25:11
Well, but you see, this is the thing, is be- before, you know, we now take adjusted wins, season win totals for granted.
25:17
This only started, like, five or six years ago, when we were on Primetime Action, during those years. Um, before that, this was the, the thing of, like, smoke-filled backroom- Mm-hmm... things.
25:28
And, uh, you know, it was the old, uh, Wall Street s- stock market thing that I used to talk about, that I used to participate in, and this famously, when they first started doing this, they didn't really get that.
25:38
There was a Broncos-Giants game famously the first year they put out these adjusted season win totals, and they totally didn't get what you just described, which is, "Wait, the Broncos just beat the Giants as they were supposed to do," and they adjusted the Broncos' season win total up three games.
25:55
Mm-hmm. I was like, "You gotta play under on this." Like, it was the easiest thing in the world to exploit. Now they're smarter to it. Yeah.
25:59
Read, um, Joe Peta's book, Trading Bases, and he talks about trading these season wins in excellent and, and Wall Street context. Joe, Joe Peta knows a whole bunch about this. I'll leave it at that. Mm-hmm.
26:08
Michael Harrison, "Watched Unknown Number. Infuriating." Talking about the documentary I recommended on Netflix.
26:13
He goes, "That woman ruined lives all over the place for years, and in my opinion, got off easy by both the courts and the doc filmmakers.
26:19
There's a feeling of, 'It's over now, carry on,' that I just don't agree with at all." Michael, I could do an hour on that documentary. I agree with everything you're saying.
26:26
Why did it take them so long to go to the FBI? On and on and on. I have so much to say, but you're 100% right. Uh, this is from Get The Money Racing talking about ripping up tickets.
26:35
"Been around the sport of horse racing a long time. You have no idea how many times that happens daily.
26:38
Winning tickets lost, rip-ups, water spills, leave voucher in machine, et cetera, all coded with barcode and confined within the system. Love the show, guys." Thank you.
26:47
Jeff Levine, "Time to rethink the Bills-Ravens teaser. Ravens have lost zero games in 2023 and 2024 by more than seven points.
26:55
Of nine total losses, all but two were six or fewer, so wait for the semi-inevitable return to a pick, then tease Ravens. Hope not mushing this one." Nope, nope. That's like the Bru- the Springsteen song.
27:06
The, the, the, those, those spreads are gone, boys, and they ain't coming back. Believe me. Um, if, if you see a Bills plus... If, if you see a Ravens plus one, run.
27:16
Don't walk to the window and tease that sucker up to the plus seven and a half, because they're gonna close the favorite as sure as the sun's gonna come up tomorrow. As sure as the sun's gonna come up tomorrow.
27:25
Uh, this is from, uh, Mike Salvino. "Are we sure that Pierro's has the best meatballs in Vegas?" He says yes. I'm not sure. A lot of good meatballs in Vegas. Mm-hmm. Carbone. It used to be Rao's.
27:36
Rao's used to have great, great meatballs. Nothing beats the wagyu tacos at, at Nobu, but they're like- [laughs]... $100 an ounce. And R- And Wish never refuses to, to, to eat them on Food Network.
27:44
And Wish wants some, like, a Burger King, [laughs] Happy Meal. Michael Lafon, "Gil, I'm a huge Chiefs and Marty Schottenheimer fan. I thought his son was great last night," Bryan Schottenheimer.
27:53
"Bryan's first play from scrimmage last night was his dad's favorite play, the power O to Javonte Williams for eight yards." Great point, Michael.
28:00
Um, Xavier82, "Make sure you ask Fezzik on his segment what his favorite season win total is." Ooh, I've cau- been, been caught by surprise there. I... So I always play unders- Yeah... more than overs. Um, you know what?
28:13
I'll, I'll go contrarian. I'll play the, I'll play the Bills under B- I, I think you can get a 12. Ooh. Let's go Bills under 12 at this point. Direct shot at Kelly Bidlet. Ooh, he's going over?
28:22
Yeah, he loves the Bills every which way. Easy schedule. Yep.
28:25
Do- Donnie Miller, "Can you ask Fezzik if his love of fireworks was born on the banks of the Ohio River with the big WEBN fireworks show in Cincinnati on Labor Day weekend?" Ah, y- th- th- sh- shout out.
28:35
I was staying in Ohio, so we didn't get to Cincinnati that often, but that was...
28:38
Uh, well, I did go to that sh- that show once, um, and it was tremendous in the summer, and, and gridlock for hours trying to get out of there. Oh, yeah. It's, it, it- D- C- From the Mall fireworks? Oh, my God.
28:50
Same thing. So much fun, though. Love the fireworks. Uh, JasonH11, "Here in New York, Caesars now has the best two team six-point teaser at minus 125.
28:58
I love teasers, so I'll still play one per week, but man, they're just sucking the life out of sports betting." So I talked about this earlier, Steve. I don't know if you heard it.
29:05
Um, the difference now in teaser prices between legalized shops and offshore is just a, a chasm- Mm-hmm... because offshore, it's minus 120 standard, and I c- I find some minus 110 still.
29:19
And here, I mean, in, in the real world, minus 130. I mean, he's, he's pointing out one minus 125 that exists, but generally now, now that DraftKings has gone to minus 135, they're unplayable.
29:29
Yeah, and t- and let's quantify why it's unplayable, because people are like, "What's the big deal? Minus 120 versus minus 125." Well, the, the household, the entire household is based upon 10 cents a vigorous.
29:39
That's a 4 1/2%, um, hold for the house. So it's, uh, you know, rounding, it's, like, 2.3% to add five cents a vig. All right? Mm-hmm. I'll round it down to 2%. All right?
29:50
Think about six to five blackjack, total sucker game that no one with a brain would ever play. It's just, you know, for any, any sizable amounts. That, that, that bad rule on the six to five blackjacks, only 1.4%.
30:02
So laying an extra five cents a vig, having to play, you know, -125 instead of -120, or -115 instead of -110, all of a sudden you're not getting six to five on your blackjacks, you're getting even money- That's right...
30:13
on your blackjacks. You're playing even money blackjack. Good luck winning. Uh, cheap prop bets. What would you...
30:18
Fezzik, he says, "What would you consider," I'm not sure if I understand this, "large pool groups for survivor contests? Some sites have many different size contests."
30:25
Oh, I guess he's just asking for what's a definition of a large. Eh. Well, I- th- That's subjective... my answer would just be, obviously- Yeah... your strategy has to be different with your path. That's right.
30:34
And you talked about this with the- Yep... with, with, with Grandissimo, with under 100 people, I don't think you have to sweat too much who you're gonna take, you know, week 17. But 17,000 plus, you should be sweating.
30:44
Exactly. Yeah. Charles in Connecticut talking about the commercial you brought up. "That commercial was horrible. Was watching game with a few friends. Universal negative reaction." God, I gotta see this commercial. Um,
30:55
Steven Brosek1870, "Someone should buy all four 15-second ads on Red Zone. Seven hours of commercial-free football brought to you by Coca-Cola." You're right, someone should. Uh- You know, what is the outrage?
31:04
Now, the Masters used to be n- no commercials, and then they had, like, two minutes or the like. It's- The, the outrage was stupid because...
31:10
Well, it was stupid on Scott Hanson's part to go on, on, uh, Pat McAfee's show and act like there was gonna be rampant commercials, not really refute the point, or for, you know, the network to get in front of it.
31:23
And what it is in the end, again, it's only 15 second, four 15-second spots over seven hours. That's it, and it's not even full screen. Hopefully they won't be playing the Vegas commercial, 'cause it's terrible.
31:32
[laughs] Um, Roger Jones, "Sorry Kelly, I thought I was already pushing it for time, but Gil is 100% correct. In our case, if they can read the numbers off the ticket, they can type it manually."
31:43
Yeah, I'm talking about even if you lose your ticket, if you get there before someone steals your ticket out of the waste bin, you'll still get paid. I, I, I just lost a ticket- Yeah...
31:50
and I went to, I went, uh, William Hill. I went over there. People at the end were super, super nice and processed it immediately for me, matched it. Just tell them for how much, where you bet it, that's kinda the thing.
32:00
They, they, they had it locked up within five minutes- Yeah... and, and, and I think they broke the rules. But, you know, but, but they, they, they, you know, they confirmed with me, "Hey, w- it's good.
32:08
It hasn't been cashed. We're all good, Stevie." So I'm, um, I... So New Year's, um, everyone gets a little Christmas bonus [laughs] over at the, um... Thank you.
32:16
All right, let's talk about, uh, Gil, it's not Rao's, it's Rayo's, making my New York Italian heart hurt. Is that right? Is it Rayo's, the old place, with the meatballs? Or- Yeah, it was spelled R-A-O- Rao's...
32:26
apostrophe S. Oh, my, my bad. It used to be back in the bowels of, of Caesar's. I think that's where- Yeah... the Peter Luger- Back in the bowels- That's- That's right...
32:33
uh, uh, um, I, b- I think the secret of meatballs is, you know, are part pork, part beef, correct? Yeah, it's a little filler. Yeah. Yeah. A little filler. Maybe some veal. Okay. My bad, NJND107_ on that one. My fault.
32:45
Okay, last thing. I brought this up, uh, y- as a tease to this segment. Brad Powers and other college football experts, you think they're way smarter than, than s- experts who try to do more than one thing.
32:56
Yeah, pulling back the curtain, and this just makes sense, right?
32:59
Like, like, on sports or people hate sports or there's people that sell picks, because the industry is rife with, like, pretenders and scammers and the like, and, and generally that's correct, and Spanky's been very, you know, vocal about that.
33:11
But there's r- there's certainly really hardworking people that win, all right? But the ideal person, like, as, as an example, Gil Alexander should have a tennis service, because you love tennis.
33:21
And so you're looking at Sabalenka and you're probably gonna bet against her tomorrow, I'm guessing. I'm not sure yet, but- [laughs] I mean, I can't be sure- [laughs]... but I'm pretty sure that that's gonna be the play.
33:31
Um, and the, and the point is, because you're living and breathing one sport specialization, obviously Brad Powers is gonna know so much more about it- Absolutely... than Stevie Fezzik is about college football.
33:41
Why the hell, why the heck would you... Potty mouth. Why the heck would you buy my college football and not buy Brad Powers? Buy Brad Powers first, because he's living, breathing, eating college football 24/7.
33:54
It, it's so true. I just, the time, I'll just take my...
33:56
The time spent handicapping tennis, and particularly at the beginning of tournaments when there's a million matches, right, on, on some of these slams or, or the bigger tournaments,
34:05
you have to be completely immersed in that to the point where you can't even begin to handicap other sports, at least not more than, like, one other, right? But you've seen Coco Gauff serve. She can't serve a lick.
34:15
She's got the yips because that, you're in- And you're watching it- Yeah... you're, you're in the numbers. You're all these things. Kelly, Kelly and Matt Brown and West Reynolds, they do the same thing with golf. Yes.
34:23
Right? Kelly is in his, in his golf models doing that stuff. You, p- a- and I really even feel like pe- people don't really realize how much time that takes, and then you gotta do a show on top of it.
34:34
130 teams, two minutes per team. Four hours. Do you think two minutes per, uh, per team is, is sufficient? That's, that blows four hours a day right there. I've been places with Dr.
34:43
Bob, he disappears, uh, you never see him 'cause of that. Steve Fezzik, everybody. Thank you, Steve. Thank you. Coming back, recapping all the bets.
34:49
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:05
Numbers game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Kelly, it's our final segment before a weekend of football. Can't wait.
35:13
How much time will your behind be on your couch watching college and pro football this weekend? I don't really wanna admit that number- Yeah... 'cause it's gonna be very high.
35:23
I mean, I, I believe I told you, I c- you know, I love that we can't remember if we said things on air or off air- Oh, we have, we have no idea... it's one of my favorite parts of doing this show, right?
35:31
It's the beauty of it, yeah.
35:31
But, uh, I said to you at some point last week, 'cause it, it's been several weeks of, we've had a lot of fu- we've had Bet Bash, and the contest week, and it's been great seeing people last week. It was Labor Day.
35:43
We had, I had family in town, friends in town. Uh, it's been a lot of, like, entertaining and things go, things going on. Me too. I cannot wait- Me too...
35:52
to not move from the couch this weekend and watch football as much as humanly possible. [laughs] Me too.
35:58
And I'm also, and I'm also like, okay, I'm glad that, uh, as great as the tennis run has been, it's been spectacular, I'm glad that it's dwindling, right, in terms of the, uh, the slam, the US Open, and now we get to focus full bore on, on football.
36:11
Oh, you, we, the, the, the country club sports schedule is extremely long, both for golf- Yeah... and tennis. It, the break is needed every year Yeah.
36:19
By the way, the Palm Readers, uh, Palm Readers tweets in, "If teasers are so unplayable at regulated books, why do we spend so much time talking about them?
36:27
It feels like teasers get a lot of air time despite being unplayable." And I will read you exactly what I wrote him, which is, you know, "Hey, we're not talking about them that much over here, quite honestly.
36:37
We don't, we don't really spend all that much time talking about it," but when we do, uh, we do because, as I was pointing out, we're playing at places where it's minus 110 and minus 120.
36:46
So- Also, I'd be sitting here lying to you if I d- if I said I didn't play him at minus 125 the past, what, last year? Two years? When did William Hill make the jump from 120? I think that was two or three years ago.
36:58
Oh, yeah, see I won't do it. I will... Now, I will fully admit in live betting, I will be paying more juice than I ought to be- Mm-hmm...
37:05
because I'm doing it in the moment, and I wanna get it down, and so, uh, yeah, I'm not as price sensitive. But on something like teasers, I, I'm pretty price sensitive on those.
37:14
Yeah, 'cause that, that will catch up to you.
37:16
Uh, let's recap all the bets, all the best bets on the show today from every host, that's two of us, every guest, [laughs] uh, and every sport, which, uh, we do courtesy of G Bank each and every day on the show and every show on the network.
37:29
Again, the tennis play today coming off another winner yesterday. I think it's seven of eight now, uh, in the run here on the back end of the US Open.
37:36
It's been a phenomenal tournament, it's been a phenomenal hard court season.
37:40
Uh, yes, the, uh, the futures didn't get home on, on Iga or Muchova, but we got the future home at Wimbledon, so that just comes out of that pot.
37:47
But, uh, today after the, uh, the winner yesterday and the over in the Pegula-Sabalenka match, I have it over again, and this is this afternoon. This is the daytime match.
37:56
So it won't cut into any of your Kansas City Chiefs, LA Chargers viewing. Alcaraz and Djokovic midday in New York, um, that's the, uh, that's the first of the two men's semis.
38:08
The, the night match, Sinner and Auger-Aliassime, Sinner's gonna run him out.
38:11
But I got the over, 37 and a half games between Carlitos and Novak this afternoon, and I think Carlitos is, uh, is in for a, a tough match as he seeks revenge against Novak, who's beaten him the last two times.
38:24
My football bets that I have made. Uh, Lions plus two and a half minus 116 against the Packers. Steelers minus two and a half at, uh, minus 123 against the Jets at New York.
38:35
Falcons plus two and a half minus 117 hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those are the three contest plays of my three of my five contest plays, and those are three bets that I've made.
38:45
I also have a Falcons-Lions six-point teaser at plus eight, at plus eight points each. I actually have a three, uh, three-legger with the Eagles from last night, but that's the one that remains, uh, in that.
38:56
By the way, three, three-leg teasers, also another pricing thing, right? You can go places that pay plus 150, you can go places that pay plus 160. I have a spot that pays plus 170. You gotta be aware of this stuff.
39:08
I made a three-teamer as well yesterday, and it was three-teamers six and a half points pl- uh, plus 135. Six and a half. I'm talking about six. Yeah, six and a half, nine now. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Kelly's got a bunch. Yeah.
39:20
Uh, let's see, Broncos, Bills six and a half point teaser 'cause, ha, Bill's up to seven and a half. Come on, get outta here. Um, you know, I, I, I get the revenge angle thing, by the way.
39:30
I get it, but like, it's not like the Bills are coming off celebrating a Super Bowl victory or anything. Like, you know, B- they got business left to do this season as well.
39:39
Uh, Broncos, Bills teaser, absolutely might be tying the Broncos into another one or two. I, I will go back to, I know we're talking about pricing with teasers. I will just also bring up that I'm usually...
39:50
I love playing teasers. You will see me play a lot of teasers throughout the season. I do back off usually, though, these first couple weeks because things happen in the NFL we do not expect to happen.
40:00
So that's one for me. And I, I'm not... Just don't go crazy with them. That would be my warning for, for teasers these first couple weeks. Dolphins money line for me. Dolphins, Colts over 46. Like the offensive weapons.
40:13
Do not trust those secondaries whatsoever. Texans, Rams under 44. I think Texans are the best or second-best defense in the NFL right behind, uh, the Denver Broncos.
40:23
Rams, Stafford's stuff, it's a little interesting to me. Uh, we'll see how he does. I like 44 going under that. Panthers, Jags over 46 and a half. [laughs] I'm la- I'm laughing 'cause I'm like, "Uh, go easy week one."
40:35
He's got the whole, it's all the page done. [laughs] So, no, but like- Yeah... no, but like, Gil, it's a- Yeah... it, it's a good, it, it's a good point, right? Yeah.
40:40
You will not normally see m- me bet this many games- Yeah... dur- in week six of the NFL season, but it will be much higher staked, right? So these are lower stakes, more volume of bets, though, for me this week.
40:51
49ers money line, talked about this. I'm gonna stick with it. I'm not gonna jump off this, but I'm not going to add to it.
40:56
I did mention yesterday I was probably, I was gonna add to this bet with the McCaffrey news, though I will stay away from that from now.
41:03
Uh, and then sorry, Steve, but I did bet the Cardinals at four and a half, and I said four and a half- Yeah. [laughs]...
41:07
when four and a half was on the board still, and it's been on this graphic every day since then, okay? That, that's why I tried to say gently, I'm like, "I get it. When you're punching in, you don't wanna hear...
41:17
So if you're punching in for the first time, you don't wanna hear someone- Right... talk about a stale line." But if they've been talking about it all week, that's kinda how content works. Yeah.
41:23
So it's like, sorry about that. Also, like, I don't know, G Bank might not be very happy if we had no bets to go over. [laughs] Dave Ross. Uh, Dave Ross, Captain America. What was his other nickname? Super Dave.
41:33
Super Dave. Uh, Chargers plus three tonight, Friday night in São Paulo, Brazil. What a g- Oh... what a nice little sports day. I've got a- Little tennis in the afternoon and then, uh- Oh, it's-... football at night...
41:43
it's great. Update on that game, by the way. Um, but Kai Becken added to the injury report this morning. Ooh. This is, this- I feel like this is a Dave Ross narrative all the way. He's on the Chargers.
41:53
He's not gonna like to hear this. This is might be like a hashtag keep football in America sorta thing, though. Update, added to the injury report with an illness. Questionable for the game now tonight. Ooh, an illness
42:04
#KeepFootballInAmerica. [laughs] Is that what you said? Yeah. [laughs] But don't drink the water? Is that what you're kinda- Yeah, yeah. I don't know Uh- Water or something. Dr. Bob was on the show.
42:13
He made a v- what I thought was a very... He's always compelling, right? He always makes compelling cases. Yes, he does. But I thought this was a particularly compelling case for Arkansas minus 23 against Arkansas State.
42:23
Not only, um, does his math model lead him to it, but so too does a technical analysis, otherwise known as a trend.
42:32
Uh, he won't reveal exactly what the parameters of the trend are, but it's a 39 and three trend that would favor Arkansas here minus the points, and he added that this is...
42:43
There's also a narrative here that, uh, his, his quote-unquote, "Arkansas insider" and Arkansas booster told him about, which is that Arkansas State has basically goaded the Razorbacks into m- having this matchup with him, uh, with them, basically saying, "Oh, you're too scared to play us.
42:56
Too scared to play us," and here they are playing them. So he's Arkansas minus 23, uh, and he made a great case for that. And then the under in the Lions-Packers game on Sunday, under 47 and a half points.
43:07
Uh, and then we did have, uh, by the way, a shout-out to Chris Velika. Hope his, his travel went well- Oh, gosh, yeah. Seriously... or is going to go well today the rest of the day. He couldn't join us today.
43:15
Steve Fezzik, Seahawks plus the points now, plus the two against the Niners. Bears plus the one and a half against the Vikings.
43:23
Interesting, uh, little, uh, sidebar he had there on the Megapod about the correlation, or what he feels will be correlation between the Lions' performance on Sunday and then what you can do in terms of a bet on Monday night.
43:37
College football. Hey, Kelly, look, there's another Duke-Illinois bet. Nice. Duke plus three. Is, is this the game of the year? Game of the year, guys?
43:43
Did we, did we miss that this is the most spectacular game- [laughs]... in college football season? Everybody has a bet on this game. Duke plus three. Of course, Steve is aggregating.
43:51
Western Illinois-Northwestern under 51 and a half. He still leans that way, uh, but he, uh, he has a play on Western Illinois-Northwestern under 51 and a half. It's all brought to you by gbank, the official bank of VSiN.
44:05
Again, every, uh, host, every show, every guest, every sport all brought to you by gbank, the official bank of VSiN.
44:12
Uh, and once again, don't forget regarding gbank that, uh, not only can you, uh, know that they're built with sports bettors in mind, but right now you can earn a $50 cash back reward bonus once you're approved and your account is open with the gbank Visa Signature card.
44:25
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44:35
Plus your earn, you will earn, pardon me, one percent cash back on all eligible sportsbook and gaming transactions, and two percent cash back on everything else you buy. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank.
44:44
That's vsin.com/gbank. Uh, just wanna remind everybody the Megapod is out there, the Beating the Book Megapod, so the Beating the Book podcast feed. Uh, the response has been awesome, as it always has.
44:56
There's, uh, it's, uh, it's available in video on YouTube, but the audio version, the, uh, standard podcast at the Beating the Book feed. Doing really well on the iTunes top 100 shows. Nice. Uh, which is really good.
45:07
Let's make it even higher next, uh- Up on the YouTube? Uh, what do you mean up on the YouTube? The show's up on the YouTube? Show's up on the YouTube. I just mentioned, yeah. Yeah. L- leave a little thumbs up- Yes...
45:15
comment. Yeah. Um, oh, they comment, that's for sure. Talk about how purple Todd is. Uh, purple Todd is, and other things. So, uh, just again, a shout-out to The Win and SiriusXM Studios.
45:25
Such a great, uh, great deal doing it from there. Uh, and then don't forget Monday right here on a Numbers Game, the first guessing lines of the season for week two. Can't wait for that.
45:37
In the meantime, Prop Points is next with John Hanson. Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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