Transcript 0:00 The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 0:08 Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 150. Oh no, pardon me, 189. I almost did it. Got it. Thought I was through it. 0:22 189, Gil Alexander. Kelly Midlan- Hello... alongside live from, uh, Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Uh, we got tweets, beating the book. Drew Dinsick standing by. We got tweets. 0:32 Judd O'Connor, "Speaking of birthdays, I'll be in Vegas this weekend for mine. I'll be on the lookout for the Beating the Book crew in the wild." Yeah, Toddy Wishnev will be here. The wild. 0:44 A lot of tennis gonna be played. Great Swami Gator, "As a sports fan, and more notably a novice gambler, isn't this week like being a kid during the week of Christmas? Just the best." 0:52 I usually say the NFL Draft is like Christmas morning, but I get you. It's fantastic. It's fantastic. Mariners Geek, "A Megapod first, Gil murders Todd through the computer screen, LOL." Could happen. 1:02 Brad Magnus, "Survivor talk is great. Genuinely curious with your guys' number of entries, do you feel like you have a legit chance to win after meeting all the buying groups [laughs] in the finals last year? 1:11 I've never been more turned off. My four entries can't compete." Well, there's definitely, listen, Brad, what you're saying is what I was talking about several times this off-season. 1:20 Yeah, look, um, what had always been going on was more out in the open last year, where you knew in Survivor Classic there was groups that had, you know, 150 entries. 1:29 By the way, don't think it's past Grandisimo either for there to be groups even in that small pool of players. So it's the reality. Nothing ever rem- remains quaint, right? These are people trying to get an edge. 1:44 That's always gonna be there, and even knowing that, you still wanna play. 'Cause there's no guarantee, right? There's no guarantee. 1:51 Even though it does, it does game the game, to use the old Sean Griffin line, John Patrick Griffin. It, it does game the game, but yes, is it a guarantee they can get to the promised land? Absolutely not. 2:03 Is there a chance that you still could? There s- there sure is. Do we feel like you have a legit chance to win, Gil? Whew. I am winning, Brad. You p- you play to win. Am winning. You play to win. That's right. 2:15 You play to win the game. Kelly already called his shot. That's right. He's winning. Winning. We should, we, uh, just give him his money. I didn't even specify a Survivor or Millions. Oh, no, he's talking Survivor. 2:23 Yeah, Survivor. Ladies and gentlemen, back from Hawaii, Maui specifically, it is Drew Dinsick, his triumphant return to the show after one week off. 2:31 He is the co-host of the Deep Dive podcast, which he does with Andy Molitor. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @whale_capper. Drewski, what's happening? 2:40 Oh, look at this guy. Tan. Savage tan. [laughs] Um- Uh, yeah, yeah, these, uh, I was just, uh, just out in, in the desert with you guys and, uh, signed up for the Survivor myself. 2:53 Uh, I met, met with, uh, Jeff and Mike and, and Derek and, um, you know, they all agreed I'm, I'm gonna win this year. 3:01 And they thought, you know, maybe just write the, write me the check now, but, you know, they figured it, for, just to keep up appearances, we're gonna play it out. Yeah. Um, and- A script... 3:11 you know, see if- A script... see if anyone, yeah, see if anyone will, would s- will split with me. Is this your, uh, first Survivor? No, no, I do Survivor every year. I was gonna say. Yeah. 3:20 It sounded like you were saying your first. I don't know, you s- she's apparently Drew gets the whole cavalry. Well, I, it'll be, it'll be my first, yeah, it'll be my first win. Oh, got it. [laughs] Got it. Yeah. Sorry. 3:28 Thank you, thank you for clarifying. Yeah, yeah. It'll be your first win- First win... at Survivor. How many Millions are you doing? One entry in Millions as well? 3:35 Uh, yeah, I got an entry in Millions, a couple of t- couple other team entries in Millions, so, um, I'm, I'm, I'm pretty, I'm pretty well exposed to this, uh, record prize pool. [laughs] Okay. 3:46 Uh, hope- let's, let's put a needle, uh, what's, a pin in that for a second. Let's get to tennis. Do you have any tennis today? 'Cause we have some matches starting this morning. No, the US Open has been miserable. Dude. 3:55 Hate it. Me too. [laughs] Hate it. Me too. Uh, tennis season is over early. Me too. Yeah. Um, thankfully football starts on Wednesday, and I can just completely tune out. No, this has been an awful tournament. Me too. 4:07 Um, I think the only- Why do you think, by the way, why do you think? Why? Why do you think both of us have gotten destroyed in this? 4:15 Well, it's, I mean, it's a chaotic dogs out of no- out of the blue type of tournament in a good year. 4:22 Uh, this year's just been even more so, and like all of the fun young players p- I mean, really the, the problem, the, the women's side, the week two is gonna be awesome. Yeah. 4:31 Um, you know, outside of, outside of the upset to Yiga, I think we've pretty much had, um, the best players come through, and so we're gonna get some unbelievable quarterfinals, semifinals, finals here. 4:42 Um, but the men's side is just the state of the game is just a problem right now. 4:46 Like, there's just not, you know, the, the good young players who showed supreme promise through clay season, and then on the early part of the hard court season, were all wildly underperf- underperforming in rounds one and rounds two. 5:01 So like, like, the excitement and, like, the future of tennis is just not here. 5:05 [laughs] And instead you have a number of guys who have, you're just like, "Okay, well," I mean, congratulations to, you know, some of these player- Yeah, Alex Michelsen, great example. 5:15 Like, hey, he's made his first quarterfinal. This might be his only [chuckles] quarterfinal of his career. Yeah. 5:19 So it's, you know, it's, it's, it's tough to say that, uh, um, you know, that there's like, we're gonna build, we're building something [laughs] here. Um, I think Shelton has very small chance against Alcaraz today. 5:31 I think Tiafoe comes, Tiafoe winning Q3 is gonna be the only thing, I think, a- any of my futures that have a realistic chance of hitting. 5:38 Uh, I have some Pegula Q2 that I think will win also, but, uh, other than that, my entire futures book is red, and, uh, um, yeah, I've taken a beating. 5:47 Uh, I've, I've had a couple of decent live entries on some comeback matches, but, uh, you know, we're, we're, we're clearly in, on the men's side tacking towards an Alcaraz-Rera final that's gonna suck, and I'm- That's-... 6:00 not happy about it. Yeah. And that will be in the middle of week one of the National Football League Sunday, so I doubt any of us- [laughs] Yes... will be watching it. That's the thing. 6:09 Uh, let's get to the- That's right... let's get to the NFL. Uh, how... You had said you have one survivor entry. One, yes? Uh, no, three. Three. Three. How are you gonna play it survivor-wise? Let's start there. 6:21 Um, well, here's the thing. Uh-oh. He's winding up. Uh, y- Well, [laughs] 'cause it's, ties into the week one handicap, which is that, 6:34 I mean, there's one side on the board that's just, like, not right, and there's... And it's... I, I don't want... I, I gotta... 6:42 I, I don't wanna g- like, go down in flames week one on all survivor and lose a bunch of money betting it, [laughs] so I'm not sure how, if I'm gonna go all of my survivor entries on one team or if I'm gonna spread it out. 6:55 But, uh, you have the options up on the screen now if you're, if you're listening and not watching. It's Jags, Lions, Chargers, Raiders, Steelers, Eagles. I agree, that is, like, your pool of six to choose from. 7:06 Uh, for me, the Chargers are a must-pass, not because I think they're re- re- realistically going to lose to the Cardinals, but there's way too high of a proportion of the pool on the Chargers, and the Chargers have way too much future value to burn them week one, in my opinion. 7:21 Uh, I think that, um, you know, the Lions and, uh, Jaguars are both fine choices. Jaguars are getting a little bit high in terms of, uh, the, you know, proportion of the pool that is, that is choosing them. 7:34 Uh, Lions, for me, are, are a bit of a question mark with how weak their secondary is going into the early part of the season, so I'm gonna save them as far as future value goes, uh, which leaves me with, like, Raiders, Steelers, Eagles. 7:45 Eagles are playing the Commanders. I, I laid the Eagles. I think they win the game, um, but I would not burn them against the Commanders, especially because I think they're playing on Thanksgiving and Christmas. 7:56 I don't exactly remember if it's both or one, but, um, you know, Eagles have to be saved for future value. So I, I honestly think your choices week one are Raiders, Steelers. Hoo. 8:05 Which is tough [laughs] because- [laughs]... the Raiders are not a good team. They just happen to be playing a Division III college football team. Uh, and the Steelers are the kind of obvious choice here. 8:20 I'm surprised that more of the pool is not on the Steelers. I'm surprised the market is sitting at three-and-a-half after we got the confirmation that Tua is going to be starting. And I don't understand this number. 8:31 I don't understand why people aren't kind of coalescing around the Steelers as the, uh, you know, the straightforward chalk. They don't have a lot of future value. 8:40 Um, you could convince me that, you know, they may be worth, uh, you know, saving for later in the season when they get, I don't know, the Titans or the Browns or something like that, but, um, I don't know. 8:52 I think this is kind of the optimal time to fire Steelers and, um, you know, I feel like I, this is narrative-y and not... 9:00 I, I'll, I'll, I'll circle around to, um, you know, to w- why my numbers say the Steelers are the side here, but- Yeah... 9:07 like, the idea that Mike McCarthy is not gonna be the talk of all of the reactions week one going, you know, ret- his grand return to his hometown and getting a, you know, a, a throttling victory over Tua, Tua and the Falcons. 9:21 Um, let's recap the Falcons preseason for a second, Bill. [laughs] Okay. Sure. They gambled that Tua was gonna be a for, a reasonable stopgap until Penix was healthy. The returns were immediately disastrous- Yes... 9:38 in terms of his performances at the joint practices in particular. Uh, he, Tua played so poorly in the joint practices in the preseason that he lost the quarterback battle 9:50 to no one, and yet they are forced to start him because they don't have another choice. 9:56 That is a remarkable kind of sen- you know, s- kind of signal about where the Falcons are right now in they're kind of, uh, you know, starting the season. 10:06 Um, they're, they're f- being forced to start a quarterback that they don't want to start on the road against the Steelers' defense that has a very violent pass rush and is going to have some new looks given that they have some f- you know, new, new, uh, minds in the building there calling that defense. 10:21 And, uh, and the Steelers' offense, this is one of the most solved problems in handicapping. The rubric for betting Aaron Rodgers is very straightforward at this point in his career. 10:33 Is he up against a pass rush that can generate quick pressure? If yes, then bet against the Steelers. If no, then bet on the Steelers. 10:41 And the Falcons right now, I don't know if you've been following, uh, they lost their young pass rusher, Jalen Walker, to a, a season-ending injury in the preseason. 10:50 Uh, their other young pass rusher, James Pierce, suspended for the first eight weeks of the season, probably nine weeks of the season because their ninth game, by the way, is international, and I don't think that James Pierce is gonna be allowed into the country of Spain with his felony convictions hanging. 11:03 So realistically, the only two players that can rush the passer for the Falcons are not going to be available. 11:09 They don't have a third pass rusher who's gonna be able to step up and, and be the guy that disrupts Aaron Rodgers. 11:14 So I realist- I just, I just am not seeing a world where the Steelers are threatened in this game at all. Laying the three was an easy call before they made the Tua announcement. 11:24 After they've made it, it only moving to three-and-a-half I think is shy. Um, I don't see a difference really between this game, Falcons and, and Steelers, and Browns-Jags. Like, how is it that much different? 11:37 Like, you're s- you have a quar- a team starting a quarterback who can't play football, uh, against a team that's at home, uh, that is trying to set the standard for their season. I'm shoving all six on the Steelers. 11:47 Maybe. [laughs] Maybe not. More Drew on the other side. Coming back. 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ShopToyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. 12:45 [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 12:59 If you are serious about betting, you need Edge Boost, the financial platform built specifically for players. A Visa debit card with no usage fees. No more declined deposits, no waiting on bank transfers. 13:09 Edge Boost gives you real-time access to your funds 24/7/365, even on nights, weekends, and holidays. Use it across all your favorite sports books, prediction markets, DFS platforms. 13:18 Optimized for licensed US gaming, land-based and online. Earn up to 0.5% cash back on eligible deposits, and daily deposit limits up to $5 million per transaction. Kelly, that's good for you. 13:30 Up to 5 million per transaction. New users, sign up with promo code VSiN, make a minimum $100 deposit into your Edge Boost account, and Edge Boost will match your deposit up to $100. 13:40 It is the smarter way to manage your gaming bankroll. Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code VSiN to get started today. They're limiting me to $5 million on my transactions today? That's what, that's what they're doing. 13:51 It's, the Billionaire Bowl is being played later today. It is. It is. I gotta get millions on it, millions on it for the Billionaire Bowl? Chuckism1, "This just in, Gil is old enough to be Kelly's father?" Question mark. 14:04 Uh, I would be a young father, but yes. Yeah. I'd be a, I'd be a young father. Yeah. Yeah. You'd, you'd be like, "Wow, you're a dad?" But yes, it's possible. It'd, it'd be a fun high school story. [laughs] That's right. 14:17 Uh, Jody Boggs, can I just, before we get back to Drew here, Jody Boggs, you know, every, you know, we, we have the best listeners. We really do. 14:23 I say it as, e- every day if I, if I remember to, and I should say it every day. It's the best listeners of anything I've ever been involved with. Um, you guys make it so much fun to come in every day. 14:35 I think I'm speaking for Kelly when I say this. Uh, clever, witty, um, intuitive, you know, inquisitive, uh, just curious, just really smart, ultimately, in every way. 14:48 And then every once in a while you get a, you know, you get a tweet that sort of stops you in your tracks. Jody Boggs, @TexasJoe80, uh, this is a photo from his hospital room. He has chemo infusion today. 14:59 He says, "It's chemo infusion day, but it's a little less stressful because I'm pumped to listen to the Megapod, baby," he says, "With Gil and the gang." 15:06 So literally on one of his screens there, with all of the chemo equipment, there's a image of the Megapod. Man. And it just sort of hits you as, as... 15:15 Uh, Jody, I just, uh, I hope you get better soon, man, and, um, if we can make it just one iota better for you, man. Yep. Amen. I hope so. Try to ignore the part where I scream at Todd, if you could. [laughs] Yeah. 15:25 I don't wanna, I don't wanna cause you any stress. Um, but yeah, Jody, get better soon. We, we love you, man. Uh, Drew Dintzer kind enough to join us once again for a second segment. Drew @whale_capper. 15:36 Uh, and we were just talking Survivor. I just wanna say this, Drew. It, it's like, so we, we're talking to you, and then we have a screen here to our right. Mm-hmm. And every once in a while, worlds collide. 15:45 They immediately go to you, you were just talking about- [laughs]... how you can't understand why the Steelers are this, that, and the other. And they, they c- have an Aaron Rodgers segment. 15:52 And they point out Aaron Rodgers with the Jets and Steelers, 16 and 19 win-loss record. Um, obviously those are two other years. In the case of the Jets, it's another team. This is obviously a different Steelers outfit. 16:03 But it was just, like, almost a sign from the universe that are like, "S- hold on- Mm. "Before you shove all in on the Steelers." Do, are you a shove guy? Are you putting all of them on one team? 16:13 You haven't decided yet is what you're saying. Yeah. Well, I, I, between all the different 16:19 pieces of action that I'm gonna have across different, uh, pools, I think I'm gonna probably have a couple of Chargers, a couple of Jaguars, but mostly Steelers. 16:27 I don't, I'm not touching the Raiders, even though, again, I get why they would be the play. This is the only time you could conceivably use the Raiders all season. 16:36 Um, and I completely understand betting against the Dolphins- Yeah... considering how disastrous their camp has been and how bad that roster is. Um, but, uh, uh, for me, it's a two-sided... 16:46 It's, the Raiders is a one-sided bet where you're betting against the Dolphins. The Steelers is a two-sided bet where you're betting on the Steelers, you're betting against the Falcons. Well said. Yeah. 16:55 The Dolphins thing is interesting, because I brought this up on the Megapod too, which is the, the first year of- Mm-hmm... Circa Survivor, 2020, uh, right after- Mm-hmm... 17:02 the pandemic, or during the pandemic, some might say, that was the year where there, there was the fewest number of Circa Survivor entries. I think it was 1,300 plus. Mm-hmm. And a lot of us got really far. 17:14 I got to week 14- Sure... and then the Rams lost to 17-point favorites to the Jets. But that was the year where you could- Who could forget? Who c- [laughs] who could forget, Drew. 17:21 Who, uh, that, that was the year- I still don't understand how that happened. I don't e- trust me, I don't either. [laughs] Um, I don't wanna talk about it. It's too soon. 17:28 [laughs] But you could, you c- you could, uh, you could fade the Jets and the Jaguars all year long until you couldn't, right? With the Jets-Rams case. Sure. Sure. 17:38 I wonder if that Dolphin, I wonder if the Dolphins things becomes that- Mm... this year. [sighs] I would say that the Dolphins fair rating for me is still kind of in the minus five range. 17:55 The teams, like, b- by the time we get to November this year, with how important it is for so many of these teams to get to the top of the draft to take the, you know, kind of narrow band elite talent at quarterback and wide receiver that's coming out next year, um, and the needs that those teams will have at those positions, I think there's gonna be a pretty ex- aggressive tank-off in November, December, January. 18:18 Mm-hmm. Um, which means I think when we get to that part of the season, we're probably gonna have some teams rated in the minus seven, minus eight range. 18:25 Like, the Jets last year when they were starting Brady Cook They were like a minus nine for me. Mm. Right? 18:30 There's very, it's very rare that you have a team that hangs out in that basement in terms of fair neutral rating for the entire season. 18:39 Like, even the season that the, um, you remember when the, um, the Dolphins were just completely lost and got blown out by the Ravens week one, and then blown out by the Pats week two? Yeah. 18:48 And then they were like 20, 21-point dogs week three [laughs] against the Cowboys. 18:53 Like, that's probably as low as I've ever had a team rated, and the Dolphins didn't finish at a, you know, as a minus 12 or minus 13 or whatever their fair was that year for me at, at that time. 19:03 So, you know, teams' ratings change over the course of the season, and the Dolphins are probably gonna come a little bit higher as they get some continuity on their O-line, uh, and as they develop some of their wide receiver threats. 19:14 Um, they, but, you know, they, you know, there's, there's young players who could eventually pop and be a factor as far as a pass rush goes. 19:22 There are young players who could develop as far as the secondary so that they're not just a completely lost team. 19:28 Um, and then, you know, there are other teams that I think are going to, you know, be trying to lose, a la Jets and Brady, Cook last year. 19:35 So, um, you know, I wouldn't, uh, I wouldn't make sincere decisions about who you're gonna eventually fire week 12 beyond, and I think that, um, this year's gonna look a lot like last year, where if you can get over the hump and get to, like, week 11, get past Thanksgiving, basically. 19:50 If you can get past Thanksgiving, I think you, uh, you're in really good shape to get to the finish line because of how many tanking teams there are gonna be in the last third of the season. 19:59 Um, I think if you have a bunch of entries, you have to circle one of the coin flip Christmas games, save both of those teams. You know? And save, you know, basically save... Let, let's just pick an example. 20:10 Um, Bills are playing the, the, um, uh, the, uh, uh, Broncos, I think- Yeah, I think so... on Christmas. Yeah. Right? 20:18 I think if you have two, ha- save half your entries, save Bills on half, save Broncos on the other half, and then just sacrifice half your entries on Christmas, and then you'll... 20:26 I think that's, I think that's generally the, um, you know, the right strategy this year, because I've, my guess is there's gonna be times to use teams that you would never conceive using now in weeks 13, 14, 15, just based on, uh, how the tanking unfolds. 20:41 Final score, Bills 16, Broncos 16. There goes your season. [laughs] Oh. [laughs] Oh, God. Don't say that. Yeah. Geez. Oh, God. Oh, God. Yeah. Oh, God. [laughs] That would be the worst. Oh, my God. What? Hey, get, hey. 20:52 Yeah. Uh, as I learned- Yeah... uh, when it comes to that point in the season- Yes... Circa- Circa will-... nice enough to offer a three-way line [laughs] on the money line- You know?... 21:01 so that people can hedge with the tie. And you know who we credit for that? Joe Peta, who was the first one to ask about that. Ah. Yeah, like, "Well, give me some, give me some tie insurance." Very good. 21:10 Uh, what did you end up betting week one? I know you gave us some totals before. What did, what'd you bet sides-wise? Yeah. How, those two have moved. My goodness. [laughs] Yeah. 21:17 I think we need to go back to the well there. But, uh, I'm on, uh, Bengals under, I'm on, uh, uh, Eagles under, and those two have both moved, like, three, like, point and a half, two points. 21:27 Uh, so good, good looks there. Um, I like the Cowboys-Giants under on Sunday Night Football at 48. 21:33 I'm not sure how much people are following the breaking news about, uh, guard, uh, injuries, but, uh, the only good offense of the, well, I wouldn't say the only good, the by far the best offensive lineman on the Cowboys, Tyler Smith, is out for six weeks with a thumb surgery that came very late in the process. 21:50 Mm-hmm. There's Cowboys actively moving pieces around on their offensive line, so no continuity with that unit. And they're up against a good pass rush, so that'll make that game very interesting. 22:00 Uh, and, uh, I'm s- not surprised that the market has moved in favor of the Giants there. I think that close is two and a half. Uh, and, uh, but under 48 is the stronger play for me there. 22:09 I took a couple of overs on the opener. Um, it is ticking up. Uh, I played over 44 and a half for Pats-Seahawks. My fair is actually closer to 50 here. I think it's gonna take, uh, 27 points to win this game. 22:22 Both teams, to me, I think are rostered well to take advantage of, of absences, weaknesses on the, uh, you know, defensive personnel on the other side of the ball. 22:32 Um, and, uh, I think the Patriots in particular are gonna be able to put some scoreboard pressure on the Seahawks in this one. Um, so over 44 if you can get it, uh, very solid bet in my opinion. 22:42 Uh, I took over in Bills-Texans, uh, which I, again, I think- Hmm... Bills are gonna be more of a, uh, a boat racey team this year. 22:50 Uh, they, I think the move from McDermott to Brady with Josh Allen's blessing makes them an all gas, no brakes offense. 22:57 Uh, and so that one I think is gonna be a fun, uh, back and forth with the Bills' defense having question marks in my mind. Uh, and then for sides, I laid the, uh, Eagles against the Commies. 23:08 I think four and a half, uh, should be closer to six. Uh, and then, uh, for the, um, uh, for the dogs on the board, uh, the Jets stand out to me. I think the Jets win outright against the Tennessee Titans. 23:19 Uh, that one should be Jets minus one and a half in my opinion. Drew Dincic, everybody. Solid. Next time we talk, we'll have football under the belt for the first time this year. Let's go. 23:29 Uh, Drew, thank you so much @whale_capper. Again, Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, a must-listen podcast for NFL junkies and beyond as well. Thank you, Drew. All right. Best of luck today, guys. 23:42 Coming back on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 23:59 Don't forget about the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. 24:07 You can scan the QR code for more right there on your screen. Sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin in the house. Um, just wanna react to, uh, Drew's segments here. A couple things. One, 24:20 I do not, I'm, I'm, unlike other people that we know that are out there that take, I don't know what it is about the DNA strain of sports bettors- Mm... but some people, it's not enough for them to win money. 24:30 They al- they also want the other person to do badly. Mm-hmm. I don't want other bettors to do badly. 24:35 So I'm, I was not rooting for Drew to, I didn't know how his US Open was going Oh, no, I know where you're going with this. Yeah, yeah. But the fact that he said that he's getting killed too- Right. Yes, yes... 24:44 there is a little bit in my head that's like, okay, so it's not just- No, it- You know? No, because when the opposite happens, your immediate thought is, "What am- I'm doing something wrong. What am I doing wrong?" 24:54 Well, again, I also have, like, the four plays that's a nine-unit swing that I had no business losing. Mm-hmm. And there's that. Anyway, there's that. That doesn't mean you're not doing something wrong. 25:01 But I'm just saying. [laughs] That's right. You could be just doing something terribly wrong. But like, no, I know that feeling when I- Yeah... I feel like it happens often, 25:10 uh, I think, but I will actually use the Hardwood Handicappers group more so than golf, but it's, you know, Zach or JVT are on a run, espe- especially with, like, a couple specific teams. 25:20 And you're like, "What am I not seeing in this team that they're seeing?" Well- You know? By the way, I hope Zach is doing great. I hope Zach is doing well- Yeah. Yeah... at the US Open. One of us should. I, I hate... 25:30 Yeah. Can, can we revisit a couple things Drew said? Oh, yeah. No, I'm going more back there as well. Okay. What, what I was gonna say was- The Steelers thing's in my head, man. Okay. 25:36 So first of all, great survivor deep dive- Mm-hmm... from Drew, 'cause now, and also he's got me thinking about millions now, 'cause you gotta fill out five millions plays, right? That's the thing. 25:45 Even the year where I crushed on the mega pod, it's only three picks. I dropped off a cliff once I had to get the fourth and fifth picks. B- you know, mega pod record versus circa millions record. 25:57 Because, you know, you gotta go five deep on these. Yeah, yeah. But now he's got me thinking about the Steelers. He's got me thinking about the Jets. He's got, you know, so that, that was a lot of food for thought. 26:04 What I am always impressed by with Drew is the confidence level- Yeah... that he has going into this season. This just, and we have not seen a, a, a live play yet, right? Pre-season is pre-season. 26:18 And I l- I really admire his conviction. I wish I had the strength of that conviction. That's the f- that's my first reaction. What was yours? I completely agree with his point about 26:31 how you should attack Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers offense this year. Completely agree with that. Atlanta absolutely down to pass rushers. 26:39 I think this whole summer, we were talking about this during a break earlier even before Drew- It's kinda how you should play Jared Goff also, by the way. Yeah, yeah. Pressure versus non-pressure. 26:47 I feel like the, I feel like the vibes were higher on Atlanta earlier in the off-season. 26:53 These past couple weeks, as Drew laid out, I think for what a, a lot of what you've seen in the pre-season and this quarterback debacle is, is fair. 27:00 Still think there's enough talent on that squad that, man, I'm, I'm scared, but his point of, and I'm just talking survivor now. Millions, millions different story. 27:09 I think absolutely they could be a fair, fair, uh, fair play to look at. His point about where, where else are you using them the rest of the season is, is spot on. 27:18 I mean, there is not, like, late in the year, you're talking- You're talking Steelers now... Steelers. Yeah. Week 17 at Tennessee, week 16 Carolina at home. 27:26 Other than that, man, I, I mean, it's week eight you got Cleveland at home. There's not a lot of looks here, but- They're, they're not a futures value team... Gil, what do you always say about survivor and the name? 27:39 [laughs] It's a misnamed game. Why, why so, Gil? Because the object is not to survive, Kelly Bidlin. The object is to win. I can't do it though. This is- [laughs] I'm gonna raise my hand. I'm gonna raise my hand. 27:51 Week one- Yeah... I can't do it. I think he's made great points. I made up that little list earlier this morning. I've been hearing all this Steelers love. I'm going to play the Raiders already. 28:02 I cannot jam all of my entries on the Steelers and the Raiders- Jam... week one. I can't, I can't do it. He does bring up another good point about the Chargers. And I'm playing it wrong. 28:11 But- That's me raising my hand if I might be playing this wrong... by the way, we don't usually go back to the previous segment and just- Yeah, yeah... 28:16 recap it, but this, but he did make another good point about the Chargers because I've, I've gotten into this habit. Look, we've been talking about the NFL for months now. Mm. Months. 28:24 We don't do this for any other sport, right? And so I've gotten into the habit of saying Chargers week one, week two, then it's a gauntlet, right? And I keep saying that. But you know what? Drew's right. 28:33 There is other spots to play the Chargers after weeks one and two. Week one and two it is home Arizona, home Las Vegas, right? And then it is the gauntlet of at Buffalo, at Seattle. There's Denver. 28:43 There's at Kansas City. There's at the Rams. There's Houston. There's Bal- at Baltimore. But then after that, we're talking late November, you know, it's home Jets. Then there's an at Raiders later. 28:57 There's an at Dolphins later. So there's a, there's three other spots besides these first two weeks. Yeah. So you don't have to, you know, you don't have to panic with the Chargers. Yeah. 29:08 Now it's- All, all on the road besides that Jets game, though, right? Yeah. I'm, I'm, I'm very okay burning them early. Okay. Yeah, and they are the Chargers. What- whatever goes wrong with that franchise? 29:17 Well, so I was gonna say you could make, there's two arguments to that, right? Is they're pr- they're already kinda banged up, Gil. Mm-hmm. Maybe save them for when they're healthier. 29:25 Or it's the Chargers and they're just gonna get worse. Yeah. Like, this is gonna get worse. And I know how you feel about Justin Herbert. You know, I'll trust him early in the year against a, uh, Cardinals or a Raiders. 29:35 Ladies and gentlemen, mea culpa. I probably failed to promote the most exciting thing on the show today. It's time for the return of Kelly Bidlin's College Football Guessing Lines. [upbeat music] Ah, yes. 29:48 Darnell Glen ready to go. [upbeat music] We probably should- [laughs] We probably should do this before NFL Guessing Lines returns, right? Yeah. Well, listen, you know, this is a play on NFL Guessing Lines- Yeah... 30:01 which begins on Monday. Monday, yeah. But, uh, old Bidlin over here wanted to get his, his flowers, as the kids say. I'm just thinking about that now. [laughs] All right. 30:09 Ne- next year we're gonna start this after we do our offic- our first official- No... guessing lines. No, people like your- Okay... College Football Guessing Lines. Sure. Steal the thunder. 30:17 Well, it's the, it's definitely the most comical time of the year. It is fun. And we're- Because I, I, I learn enough doing this exercise. Yeah. It is not watching the games. 30:25 I learn enough doing this exercise weekly that w- what, we usually burn this segment by the time we get to week nine. What do we do, three games here? Well, we built out four, but- Okay... 30:34 you know, we do, usually do three to five. Uh, let me, let's just remind people how this started. Uh, obviously NFL Guessing Lines. Yeah. 30:39 We've done it for a decade and a half Um, with most famously with my meshpucha, Christy Andrews. 30:44 And then Kelly, one day when we were back at the South Point when he was behind the glass, right before a segment started, he was like, "Hey, Gil, what, what is, what's the, what's the number on, on some random college football game?" 30:52 Mm-hmm. And I go, "14," figuring Kelly would, would, would, would, uh- I do that quick ru- run around to run back to my desk- Yeah... and then look back to Gil And says, with pregnant pause- Plus or minus. 31:03 [laughs] And that's why College Football Guessing Lines was born. [laughs] All right, you ready to do this? Oh, let's do it, baby. Let's do it. Game number one, Mr. Bidlin. 31:13 Fire it up, fellas, for College Football Guessing Lines. What is game number one? Game number one, Ohio State and Texas. Oh, marquee matchup. The big one. The big one. There it is. 31:22 Andrew Maxwell taking this over this, uh, this year- That's right... from Wyatt Tomchek, who would love to be involved. Oh. This year he's out, though. He's out, Gil. Wyatt always had a UNLV game in there. He always did. 31:32 He said he's too busy for us this year. Yeah. He's way too busy. Sorry, Wyatt. Uh, okay, Ohio State, Texas, number one verse number five. Big game. I wanna make sure you are aware of that. We never talk rankings, okay? 31:43 [laughs] I know you're behind on rankings in college football. That's all I like to talk about. Have you heard about, uh, Arch Manning? Th- th- M- Peyton Manning's nephew. No. Did you know this was a thing? Really? 31:52 Yeah, playing at Texas, man. That's kind of a big deal. Wow. All right, week one, Ohio State beats Ball State 56 to 3, 49 and a half point favorite. I can't really take much from that. 32:00 Texas beats Texas State in the classic SEC Pac-12 matchup, 59 to 7 as a 29 and a half point favorite. They looked pretty good from what I saw. I don't really know what to take from this. 32:11 I'm gonna guess, Gil, from all the smart people I listened to throughout the summer, that Ohio State was either one or two in the power ratings. So I'm gonna go four and a half is what Ohio State would be on a neutral. 32:25 Let's bake in home field. I'm gonna go Ohio State one and a half point favorite at Texas. One and a half is the correct line, but in your, uh, in your parlance, it's the wrong team. Oh, okay. 32:35 It'd be Texas minus one and a half. They are, they are at home. All right. That was close. That's not bad. That was close. We do have to get a better, uh, picture than Fat Kelly up there. Oh, boy. Yeah. 32:44 Ooh, look at that guy. Yeah. All right. That was pretty good. Okay. Let's do, let's do another one. All right. Oregon, Oklahoma State, next one up. Ducks, I, I know a lot of people are like, "Hey, the Ducks." 32:56 I didn't think they looked all that great against Boise. They looked terrible. I watched a lot of that game. And Dante Moore, I, I'm gonna bring this up a million times. 33:02 It's become a, it's gonna become a Bryce Young thing for Gil or whatever. Like, I just still can't believe this guy was like, "Yeah, NFL Draft number two pick last year? I'm good. I'm going back to school. 33:10 I know there's a lot of money." I don't know that he's all that impressive to me though either. Mm-hmm. Like, he's okay. Uh, okay, Oregon beats Boise State at home, 34-27, massive favorite. 33:20 I lost on that one bet in that one. Oklahoma State at Tulsa wins 24 to 10. They were 15 and a half point favorites. I kind of remember Oklahoma State as, like, middle of the pack in the Big 12 odds before the season. 33:34 Oregon's way up there. This is at Oklahoma Sta- State. How many points could you possibly be laying with Oregon on the road at Oklahoma State, which is still, like, I mean, it's a program, big time school. 33:46 It can't be that much, right? Going 17. Oregon is what I, 17 is what I landed on. [laughs] Well, I guess you see, I guess you see- Oh my God... I guess you see value on O- on OK State then. 33:57 Nah, it's too early in the season. 'Cause it's 22 and a half. It's too early in the season for the Kelly value plays. Can we squeeze in one more? Yeah, we'll do one more. Uh, okay, Iowa State, Iowa. This is a brutal one. 34:06 Okay, Iowa State beats SEMO 38 to 10, week one. SEMO's from where, Gil? Uh. [laughs] Southeast Missouri, I think. Southeast Missouri. Right, yeah. [laughs] All right, 29 and a half point favorites. 34:17 Oh, was that a trick question? No, I was gonna actually ask you. Iowa shuts out NIU 40 to nothing, but doesn't cover as 52 and a half point favorites. Anybody remember Paxton Lynch's Heisman run for N- Northern Iowa? 34:27 Oh, man. That was a fun year, right? Uh, Iowa laying 11. Big Ten team, better program, no idea. Uh, how about 14 and a half? Sure. Sounds good. Val- value on the Hawkeyes per Kelly Bidlin. 34:40 [laughs] Coming back with Jeff Erickson. Let's talk some NFL week one with him as well, maybe some baseball. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. 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Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. 35:50 [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The wait is finally over. College football is back, though at Florida State it takes a little extra time. 36:08 Whoa. And the NFL season kicks off tomorrow. Wow. Now's the time to get your edge with VSiN Pro. Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today. 36:14 Get instant access to our updated NFL betting guide with post preseason updates, week one betting systems, contest strategies, and fresh best bets from VSiN's experts. 36:23 You'll also receive our college football betting guide and previews, all 138 FBS teams in there. Sign up now. 36:29 You'll also get daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop tools, 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app, and you can get started for just 9.99. 36:37 That's $9.99, or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. That's a VSiN subscription. You ever, uh... You were too young for this. 36:50 Eddie Murphy, among his many Saturday Night Live characters- Mm-hmm... played a, a character called Velvet Jones. [laughs]... who had books. [laughs] He was, he was hawking books. 36:59 One of which was, uh, You Can Be a Ho, right? [laughs] He had this kind of thing, Velvet Jones. But one time he, Eddie Murphy messed up his line and he said, uh, 37:08 he said, "You can have a new prescription," and then he caught himself and he goes, "And a subscription, too." [laughs] He would do that on the fly. So and it's a Visa subscription. Oh, yeah. 37:16 I kind of came close to saying prescription there and somehow that came up in my head. Uh, Jeff Erickson, uh, among his many accomplishments, of course, is, uh, co-host of, of course, uh, you know, Prop Points. 37:28 Not necessarily this time of year- Mm-hmm... but other times of year- That's right... which he does with Nick Whelan. But what he is really all about, and he doesn't brag about this ever, he is the founder of Rotowire. 37:38 Co-founder of Rotowire. Let's give him his flowers, as the kids say. It's Jeff Erickson, everybody. You can follow him on Twitter at jeff_erickson. That's Jeff with a J. Jeff, good morning. Good morning, Gil. 37:48 Good morning, Kelly. Kelly, great to see you, uh, a couple, a week and a half ago at, at Circa there. Uh, wish I could've hung out with the late night crowd. 37:55 I heard the hot, the, the craps table was pretty hot, but, uh, missed out on that experience there. It, it was, but it was a party in Barry's. It was a party. 38:02 There was li- there was like 90 people, uh, from the contest weekend down at Barry's one night. Where was I? You were not here. Oh. Oh, I was not here? Yeah. Yeah, you weren't here. Here in Vegas? Yeah. Oh. Okay. 38:13 No, no, no, that weekend you were. Yeah. I don't know why you weren't there. Eh, no one calls me. I don't know why you weren't Friday. 38:17 Uh- Jeff, to the, to the few people on earth, to the few fantasy leagues that have yet to have their fantasy draft, that are having it tonight, you say to those leagues what? 38:29 Uh, they make sure you just read everything that the last second there, 'cause there's always injuries, there's always something new that's happening there. 38:36 Like, the whole New England running back situation, that's changing, uh, some of our ranks there, for instance. It doesn't look like Henderson's gonna be able to play. 38:43 Uh, it looks like Stevenson will be the lead guy, and he might be the lead guy for a while too. That's where we finished the season with them in the playoffs, when Henderson was healthy. 38:51 So little things like that are always huge. I would always say, like, go in, if you know your draft slot, know the league rules, know how... 'Cause every league is different. 39:00 Um, and know, know exactly, have, have a little bit of a plan. You don't have to be, like, wired out, "Okay, I gotta take a receiver here, I gotta take a running back there." 39:08 But ha- have a general idea how you wanna tackle the player pool. Okay. 39:12 Um, before we get to baseball, 'cause I know you have a bunch of baseball for us, what is the, what is the most outlying Jeff Erickson season-long NFL take? 39:22 What do, what do you believe that you haven't heard much from elsewhere on, on the same level? Okay. Um, I am a Rashee Rice fader. Um, I w- don't have any shares of him in, uh, my 20-plus leagues. 39:34 He would, he would have to fall into the late fifth round for me to draft him this year, and I know that could keep me up at night. I mean, he could have a great year with the Chiefs. 39:41 But I, I have plenty of layers of skepticism with him, whether it's his own health. He looked really stiff at the start of training camp coming back from yet another procedure. 39:50 You know, one misstep and he may be out of the league. I have concerns about whether Patrick Mahomes is gonna be the full Patrick Mahomes right away off, off the jump. 39:59 Uh, and, and after week one the schedule does lighten up for the Chiefs, but they finish really in a tough spot as well. So I, I really don't have a whole lot of the Chief's offense this year. Okay. 40:09 Let's go to Major League Baseball. Uh, today we have a prop. You have a Freddy Peralta prop, and I was... [laughs] It's just, it's, it's, uh, it's at four and a half. His Ks are at four and a half. 40:21 Um, how are you playing Freddy Peralta, over or under? I'm taking the over. Uh, I'm taking the over on Freddy Peralta's Ks at four and a half, minus 111 at FanDuel is the best price I saw. 40:32 Uh, since joining the Rays, he's nearly doubled his K per nine and nearly s- cut his walks in half. He's just throwing more strikes. 40:40 It's w- it's almost like the Rays are good at this and getting the most out of their pitchers, and I, I, I c- I think that continues today against Atlanta. 40:47 Uh, you know, it's a, it's a tougher step up for him, for sure, but I, I, I like almost everything that he has done. Uh, w- s- in the last three starts he's been a lot better of a pitcher. 40:56 It was, it was bumpy at first, but keep in mind his first Rays start was at Coors Field. His second one was in Sactown and it was steaming hot. 41:04 So you start there and you look at his game log and you're like, "Okay, the Rays didn't fix him yet." Well, you look at what he's done recently, he's been a lot better. 41:10 And he, he went one inning too long in a start against Baltimore, but the K to walk has been so much better. 17 to 1 in his last three outings. Rays and Braves each respectively with four game leads in their divisions. 41:22 Rays four games over the Yankees, Braves four games over the Phillies. Um, 18 games left for the Braves, 19 left for the Rays. So they have a bit of a cushion here as they start this inner league set. 41:34 And they of course have designs on the respective number one seeds in their leagues. 41:39 Rays in the driver's seat right now in the American League, Braves still gotta get past the Brewers, and the Dodgers by the way, as well. But a number two seed would be just as dandy. 41:49 Not just as dandy, but also great to have that bye and miss the best of three to start the post-season. Uh, okay. Against the Cubs no less, by the way. Against the Cubs no less. That's right. That, that, that's brutal. 42:01 Uh, okay, you have a team total today. Are we going to Sactown, I believe? We are. Um, and hey, I, I'm gonna keep going back to this well. Uh, and Jack Perkins at home is the, is the real, uh, factor here. 42:15 I, I, Jack Perkins has skills. He is someone that I, you know, that I think could've been, uh, you know, a quality pitcher this league. He still knows how to miss bats. 116 strikeouts in a 98 innings this year. 42:26 But if you look at the home road splits, he's getting butchered at home. 7.04 ERA, 1.60 Whip. The, the R- the Ray, I mean, the, excuse me, the A's have moved him up and down out of the rotation, into the bullpen. 42:36 For a while he was a closer, then he wasn't. They just really don't have a cohesive plan with him, and I think it's really messed with his results this year. 42:43 They just sent him down, but then they had to call him back up because T- JT Gin went on the, uh, IL with an elbow injury. So Perkins back in the line-up, uh, back in the rotation today starting against the Jays. 42:54 I was gonna think ab-- you could, you could also take a look at the, uh, total in the game. 42:57 It's nine and a half, but José Soriano's on the mound for the Blue Jays, and I think at least he, he's one of their better pitchers. 43:02 So we'll avoid that aspect of it there and just go with the team total on the Ray- on the Blue Jays against the A's instead. All right. Too many Rays and Jays and A's in my mind. I keep conflating them. 43:10 [laughs] Uh, d- I didn't get a Blue Jays win with Dylan Cease on the hill yesterday, but I do have the, uh, Red Sox with five wins here in September, Blue Jays with four, so both in contention. 43:21 All right, I have, uh, two pre-flop season win totals, neither of which is on the right side of 500 right now. I have the under 79 and a half on the Guardians. They're a game over 500. How, I have no idea. 43:34 And then there's the Rangers, who I have over 83 and a half on. They're 71 and 73. So these are still in play, but they're not feeling very good. But you are on the Rangers today? Yeah, this is a Bryce Miller fade. 43:47 Uh, he's in the rotation only 'cause Hemi- Emerson Hancock, uh, landed on the IL with a groin issue, and they, th- the Mariners, they're stubborn. They, they stick with the six-man rotation. 43:56 Uh, they trade away Luis Castillo, but then they call up Kade Anderson. I... The whole Ma- the whole Mariners season is, is a study in frustration. You wanna talk about a team that has underachieved. 44:05 You know, the, you know, the Tigers are there, the Mets are there, but here are the M- the Mariners deserve their scorn as well. 44:10 And Bryce Miller, after coming back from the IL to start the season, was really brilliant for about six weeks. He hasn't been the same pitcher since then. 44:18 He was okay in his last time out, still gave up a decent number of, uh, base runners, couldn't get through five. We're getting plus money on the Rangers to win straight up. 44:25 I know Cody Bradford hasn't been great on the, in the, in his own right since coming back. 44:29 But at plus 122 on FanDuel, I, I think, I think they're, the Rangers are at least the equal of the team as the Mariners, and I'm fading Bryce Miller. 44:37 Mariners the most disappointing s- uh, team in all of baseball this year, would you say, Jeff? Right there with the Mets and the Tigers. 44:43 Tigers, I mean, they deserve a little extra scorn because they were right there, and then they decided to sell off at the trade deadline anyhow, and you can simultaneously like what they got in the Scubal deal and hate that they made it in the first place. 44:53 Yeah. Mariners five and a half out of a wild card, six out of the division now. It is looking bleak for the Seattle Mariners. Jeff fading them with the Rangers today. 45:03 And then finally, uh, we have a, uh, a wild card race obviously in both leagues. The NL one is kind of mano a mano right now for that third wild card spot between the Diamondbacks and the Padres. What are you doing here? 45:15 How are you betting this? So it's interesting because I wanna talk a little Diamondbacks. Uh, I wanna use this as a platform to talk about them. 77 and 68 this year. 45:23 Uh, they're, you know, it, it's, they're kinda beating the odds. They have a exactly even run differential on the season. Their starting pitching isn't great. 45:31 We're talking about Aaron Judge coming back, but Corin Burns makes his return today as well. Yes. And this was a little bit, little bit of a surprise because he had a setback earlier. 45:39 Probably he's not gonna go very deep in this game. I think he threw, like, 43 pitches in his last outing, which wasn't even a rehab start. It was this, uh, like, uh, simulated game basically. 45:49 Um, he, he's, he, he, yeah, uh, but he's trying to jump in and try, and jump in time for the playoff race here. 45:54 I, I think the Diamondbacks are a fascinating team because, you know, they, they, it's been a, you know, the Ketel Marte thing has been a big mess. 46:01 The k- the guy that opened the year as the closer is no longer on the team. Again, this is, like, a Diamondbacks thing that they do. Their starting pitching is just lukewarm, and yet here they are, nine games over 500. 46:12 They're like the anti-Mariners. Jeff Erickson, everybody. Jeff, sorry I missed you when you were here, man. Woulda li- would've liked to have, uh, met you in person for the first time. Always appreciate- Thanks, Jeff... 46:21 always appreciate you coming on. Thank you so much. My pleasure. Jeff Erickson, everybody. Jeff underscore Erickson, and not the G-E-O-F-F, as we always say. That's right. But the real Jeff with a J. 46:32 I don't know which is realer. [laughs] I just felt like saying it. All right, how about some one-two exactas? NFL divisions. Let's do that next on The Numbers Game.
