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Sep 9, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 9, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 9, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
0:22
Uh, and once again, Wyatt Tomchek, the voice of UNLV women's basketball, UNLV men's and women's soccer, women's volleyball, softball. Did I miss anything? I think you got them all.
0:34
Once again, it's Wyatt Tomchek in for the ailing Kelly Midlin. All jokes aside, we like to, uh, poke fun at Kelly, like, "Oh, you got the Vegas flu," that kind of thing. Uh, Kelly dealing with
0:44
102 degree, uh, temperature, the sweats, just out of it.
0:49
Yeah, I feel, I, he, uh, we, [laughs] we were trying to w- text him yesterday and, uh, he didn't get back till about 10:00, so he, you know, you know that was a, uh- Yeah... a little bit feeling- We hope, we hope-...
0:59
down in the dumps a little bit here... we hope our little buddy feels better. Yeah. I know what he's doing, he's losing weight on turbo, that's what it's all about. That's what he's trying to do.
1:05
I don't think he wanted to lose it that way. [laughs] No, I don't think so either. I don't think so either. Uh, Mark Borchardt on baseball coming up later this hour.
1:11
Drew Dincic in the house, uh, after a week off, after he did the honeydew thing before the football season started, where he was like, "Where can I take my wife so that I get 20 weeks of football unfettered, or at least through January anyway unfettered?"
1:21
Uh, Drew Dincic will join us to talk, uh, football, week one past, week two ahead. Maybe he has some tennis plays, I'm not sure.
1:27
Jeff Erickson, uh, senior editor at Rotowire, founder of Rotowire, to talk some fantasy implications with us, and also his thoughts on the National Football League, some bets that he has prop-wise this week.
1:38
Todd Wright, the greatest voice in sports radio of all time, to join us with his division futures in the NFL. Tyler Shoemaker a little later on.
1:45
It is loaded, it's packed, and we'll talk Survivor as well, adjustments in markets based on week one results, overreactions in markets to awards and that kind of thing. I love- We'll do it all.
1:56
I love the overreactions of week one. Ah, it's fantastic.
1:58
Speaking of overreactions, I know we're gonna get into it, but that, that Bears-Vikings game, just watching the, the tweets come in, in the first quarter and seeing how they had changed in the fourth quarter- Oh...
2:07
was fabulous. Two and a half, three quarters of JJ McCarthy slander. Oh, I loved it. All, [laughs] all quickly erased. Take that, Todd Wushneff. I'm kidding. That's great. I like you, Todd.
2:15
Well, let's get into it, 'cause I have much to say about this game last night, but, uh, for those who missed it, the Minnesota Vikings, who looked dead in the water against the Chicago Bears, down 17 to 9, score, [clears throat] pardon me,
2:27
21 unanswered.
2:28
Not unanswered, but 21 unanswered for a stretch until Chicago had a, a late touchdown, to beat the Chicago Bears 27 to 24, uh, in a game that didn't look like it was going over, it was, it was gonna, gonna go close to being over, and soars over in the end.
2:44
Um, Minnesota started with a three and out. Chicago got the ball early in this 10 play, 61 yards, in a drive that took a little less than six minutes.
2:52
On a third and five at the Minnesota 30, uh, Caleb flushed out to the right, perfect dime to Rome Odunze on the sideline, where he tiptoed it, 17 yard pickup, amazing throw and catch.
3:04
Three plays later, Caleb in for nine.
3:06
It was seven to nothing Bears, with 7:04 left in the first quarter, and Wyatt, I think everybody's first reaction was, "Oh, wow, Caleb six for six on this drive for, uh, for 51 yards.
3:17
Maybe this is going to work out with Ben Johnson. Maybe this is, maybe this is a new Caleb here." That was, that was a perfect 10 out of 10 drive for them. I think that's exactly how they wanted to start the game.
3:26
You talk about that throw that he had to Rome Odunze. Yeah. That was so tough, rolling to his right, just dotting it down the sideline, Odunze with a great catch.
3:33
I mean, I looked and I was like, "All right, look, it looks like the Bears got some confidence here." Six for six on that drive. He would g- he would complete his first 10 passes eventually.
3:42
Um, couple punts exchanged, and then Minnesota, uh, after a PI from Chicago to start the second quarter that accounted for 42 yards, they settled for a Will Reichard 31-yard field goal, 7 to 3 Chicago early second quarter.
3:57
Then Chicago with a fourth and three at the Minnesota 24. This is the first Ben Johnson gaff, in my opinion. Uh, fourth and three at the Minnesota 24. They're up seven to three. This is second quarter.
4:06
The Bears' eschew, there's their first eschew of the year, field goal try, after the play clock had, uh, rolled too far down, and they were forced to use a timeout. Then they go for it anyway. Bad throw by Caleb.
4:17
After 10 completions to start the game, as we said, had DJ Moore wide open in the middle of the field, completely missed him, and that is the Caleb experience in a nutshell, which I'll get to.
4:26
Um, for every good pass, there is a bad pass. There's more to it than that, but that's, that's the first sort of sign of that. So Ben Johnson, I, I would say, just take the points at this point.
4:36
Minnesota looked so absolutely anemic. Um, exchange, Minnesota three and out, Chicago three and out, Minnesota three and out, then Chicago fourth and two at the Minnesota 24.
4:45
Again, this time with 28 seconds left in the second quarter. This time Ben Johnson says, "Yeah, we'll take the points." Cairo Santos, 42-yard field goal.
4:52
It's 10 to 3 Chicago with 24 seconds left, and then JJ McCarthy makes his first good play of the day, his first real pass.
4:59
With 19 seconds left, you figure Minnesota will just go to the locker room down seven and feel happy about being just seven.
5:04
Instead, to Jalen Nailor for 28 yards, nice pass, and it sets up a Reichard 59-yard field goal, which he sinks. So it's 10 to 6 Chicago at the half.
5:16
Second half, after a Chicago three and out, Minnesota third and eight at the Chicago 32.
5:23
JJ pick six, looking to the left, Nishawn Wright, who was on the practice squad for the Vikings last year, with the Bears now 74, uh, 74 yards to the house. 17-6 Chicago with 12:51 left in the third quarter.
5:38
Minnesota three and out, Chicago punt, Minnesota three and out.
5:41
After a, uh, I wanted to ask people about this, 'cause this is neither here nor there on the game, but it was a Minnesota three and out after a first down play where McCarthy went to TJ Hockenson for two yards.
5:50
Do you see this play, Wyatt? And it appeared that Noah Sewell cleanly punched the ball out of Hockenson's hands, resulting in a Bears fumble.
5:58
Uh, he was ruled down, and again, well, I talked about this with Tariko and Collinsworth on Sunday night. Joe Buck did a lot of this last night, too, where he's like, "Oh, clearly I don't see anything there.
6:05
He's clearly down." And as they go into commercial, I'm like, "Yeah, but if he punches the ball without touching the body-" Why is he down?
6:12
And ESPN never really gave a good ex- ex- really never gave a good explanation as to why that was down yesterday If I had to think, I think that once you possess the ball, I think the ball is part of the body if he's, if he's, uh, on the knee.
6:24
I could be completely wrong. Someone's- That's, that would be my interpretation of it, but I think that's something, now Gil, w- don't be surprised if that gets, uh, brought up in the rules committee in the off season.
6:32
S- someone's gonna have to explain the logic behind that, which may... Anyway, uh, Chicago gets the ball back. They're up 17 to six. Santos misses a 50-yard field goal wide right.
6:39
That was the first play of the fourth quarter. So fourth quarter begins, Chicago misses a field goal, 17 to six, and this is where the game completely turns.
6:47
Uh, Minnesota short field from their own 40, six plays, JJ to JJ from 13 out after a, uh, McCarthy to Jefferson 17 yard completion earlier touchdown.
6:56
17 to 12, two-point conversion fails, but illegal use of hands on D, so they try it again from the one, and Jonathan Owens, Mr. Simone Biles, makes a great tackle in the flat on Josh Oliver.
7:06
So it's 17 to 12, Chicago, 12:13 left in the fourth quarter. Chicago three and out after two negative plays on first and second. Minnesota takes over at midfield this time.
7:17
Four plays, McCarthy to Aaron Jones from 27 out, 18 to 17. The Vikings somehow take the lead. Two-point conversion to Thielen, 20 to 17 with 9:46 left in the fourth quarter.
7:29
Then a Chicago punt that's partially blocked by Eric Wilson, stuck his hand out, got a piece of it. Minnesota starts at their own 32 with 7:24 left.
7:36
Nine plays, McCarthy himself in from 14, and the Vikings are up 10, 27-17 with 2:53 left. And then Chicago takes over at their own 35 yard line with 2:43 left.
7:48
Quick drive, takes 51 seconds, a grand total of five plays for 65 yards to Kmet to begin the drive for 31, and then Caleb follows it up by missing a wide open DJ Moore downfield.
8:01
Again, perfect illustration of the Caleb Williams experience. Uh, incomplete, then consecutive Minnesota penalties on defense. Caleb to the 13 to the doorstep, then to Odunze from one out, touchdown.
8:12
27-24, Vikings with a 02:00 left. So north of the two-minute warning, the Bears have one timeout left. So you gotta on...
8:24
By the way, just side note, me and Wishnen and Fezzik then had a three-hour long argument after the game as to whether or not it is proper to go from four to two in that situation, right?
8:34
'Cause Fezzik's like, "Oh, Ben Johnson doesn't know to go from four to two," which I, by the way, disagree with. I'm a 14 to eight to six guy, but I am not a, I am not a 10 to four to two guy.
8:45
We'll g- that's a whole nother sidebar. Anyway, he kicks the extra point. Point is, 02:00 left, Bears have one timeout, and the two-minute warning.
8:53
Ben Johnson gaff, you kick the ball out of the, you, you f- you kick, you, you attempt an onside kick here 'cause you absolutely want to have that opportunity. Instead,
9:06
they kick it to Ty Chandler in the end zone, who then conversely, Kevin O'Connell properly telling him, "Come out of the end zone, bleed the clock south of the two-minute warning," which is exactly what he did.
9:17
So, uh, bad for, by, bad on the Bears, good on the Vikings. Uh, the, uh, what ends up happening is the Bears end up getting the ball back with, uh, mere seconds left, nine seconds left in the game from their own 20.
9:27
Pitchy, pitchy, woo, woo fails, and the Vikings win it 27-24. My, I, I have to say it, Caleb 21 for 35 for 210 in defeat. Um, one touchdown, no picks, six carries for 58 yards and a touchdown.
9:40
JJ McCarthy ends up 13 of 20 for 143, two touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked three times.
9:46
McCarthy became the first starting quarterback to record a comeback of 10 points or greater in his first NFL start since Steve Young did so in 1985. He's also the first since 1950 to do that on the road.
10:00
So there you go, a little history from JJ McCarthy.
10:02
For me, there were so many takeaways, perhaps the biggest of which is the Caleb factor, because I think the Vikings obviously have a lot to be thrilled about how JJ McCarthy ended that game.
10:11
Brian Flores, to me, is still playing chess on defense. He needs to be a head coach. He needs to be a head coach stat. Yep. Because he, he never overreacted early. He didn't blitz early, right? He waited to pounce later.
10:24
But for me, the Caleb experience is, I, I just, again, and I try not, and Bears fans hate me for this, but I'm sorry about, you know, obviously the Meryl Hodge thing. He's nothing special.
10:32
But Caleb Williams makes some great plays, and then he follows them up with wildly inaccurate passes.
10:38
But the bigger thing about Caleb Williams, and Troy Aikman tried saying this gently on the broadcast a couple ways yesterday, was pre-snap stuff.
10:47
He does not appear to see the field in a way that is required cerebrally by a quarterback.
10:53
Tom Brady, when he was first taking the job at Fox as an analyst, said that the biggest pet peeve he had about analysts on NFL games, and this is where mere mortals like ourselves who are not in an NFL lock- locker room or are not quarterbacks in the NFL, we don't see these things.
11:05
But Tom Brady's thing was a lot of quarterbacks get praised by analysts because they end up making this unbelievable throw in a tight spot or something like that, and his point is, no, it was a terrible thing that they ended up in that situation because they don't see pre-snap what the defense is gooi- uh, doing.
11:22
They don't adjust properly, therefore, on offense before the snap, before the ball is even snapped. And this is the Caleb Williams problem. He does not appear to see any of that.
11:32
And you can tell that when you contrast it with other quarterbacks, yes, like a Jayden Daniels who was drafted the pick right after him.
11:40
Um, that is the biggest takeaway for or better for me is Caleb Williams is everything that we think he is at this point, and that confirmed it to me last night. We'll come back baseball with Mark Borchardt next.
11:50
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting- The NFL season is officially underway, and the edge goes to those with the best data.
12:06
VSiN Pro delivers real-time DraftKings and the Circa betting splits so you can see where the public and sharps are putting their money.
12:11
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12:20
Sign up now for just nine ninety-nine or save fifty percent with an annual subscription. Visit vsin.com/subscribe today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander.
12:30
We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate it from y'all. This is from, uh, let me begin with, uh, Tenalach Jobren. Uh, "I had no idea about the Falcons fan singing victory song minutes out.
12:42
Uh, what's worse, the thousands that walked out of the Bills stadium game down fifteen." Yeah, Josh Allen let him hear about that as well. He says, "Great to digest the game with you on guessing lines.
12:51
Brilliant summary, Gil." Thank you.
12:53
Uh, guessing lines, uh, 'cause guessing lines doesn't appeal to everybody, by the way, but it sure does in podcast form, outpacing the first megapod already this year on the Beating The Book feed. Wow.
13:03
Uh, Brian Heap, "I'm sure you'll be all over this as usual, but props to KOC, yes, for the next level coaching move to direct his return guy to run it out, even that deep in the end zone to burn this two-minute warning.
13:12
At least twenty-eight out of thirty-two coaches missed that. That's winning football." Yes, I did mention that, uh, last segment. Tronsky, "Yo, Gil, another chance to rail on reffing.
13:20
The player down with a knee secured the ball, but first contact with the defender is punching the ball. Who was that player called down? Uh, replay occurred over commercial, and we got zero explanation.
13:29
That was a fumble." I mentioned that last segment as well, Tronsky. Uh, again, that was, uh, [lip smack] that was Hock-- that was, uh, TJ...
13:37
That was TJ Hock-- um, yeah, Hockenson, who had caught the ball, and it was punched out b- uh, by Noah Sewell. And again, the, the explanation, Joe Buck is like, "I see nothing," and then there was no proper explanation.
13:49
Even the referee official said, "Oh, yeah, yeah." No proper explanation on that as well. I'm with you. Um, this is from Fred Currier, "We need a wellness check on Kelly." Yeah, Kelly's ailing.
13:58
He's, he's not doing too well. We, we wish him a speedy recovery. Um, but I know he was out of it this weekend. He barely watched any football, and that's how you know.
14:05
Wet Willy Colon, "Did you touch, did you touch on Carlitos' complete domination yesterday at," oh, this is, uh-- oh, you're talking about Sunday, he means. "I may have missed it." Oh, did I talk about it yesterday?
14:17
I did not, and I went home thinking, "How did I not even mention it?" Uh, but for those who missed it, Carlos Alcaraz beats Jannik Sinner in the US Open men's final on Sunday in four sets. We were all watching football.
14:28
I didn't watch one point of that tennis match because of football. Um, but just to give you the historical context, we'll talk about this with Drew a little bit later on.
14:37
Carlos and Sinner have now won the eight Grand Slams of the last two seasons, four apiece.
14:44
Um, before that, the previous seventy-nine Grand Slams, sixty-five of them were won by the Big Three, Djokovic, Nadal, [chuckles] and Federer.
14:55
So tennis has now transitioned from the Big Three to the Big Two in a very dramatic way. Congratulations to everybody who had Carlitos at the US Open. Ayella Vynell, uh, "We have seen enough.
15:06
Eighteen games next five years build around who? Caleb or McCarthy?" Yeah, I got more to say about Caleb than that.
15:12
Vegas Vice, "You correctly identified the Bears making an error on the final kickoff, but if Santos could not kick it out of the end zone, he should have angled it so it would go out bou- out of bounds either near the goal line.
15:21
That way, the ball would be put on either the thirty-five or forty, but no time would be used." Correct, Vegas Vice. You're absolutely correct. The next best option besides the onside kick would have been that.
15:31
Agree completely. Jack Oloquire, "As a lifelong Bears fan, I wasn't thrilled when they drafted Williams, and now it's looking like Meryl Hodge was a hundred percent on the money. Gonna be a long season.
15:39
The only good news was my six-point teaser hit." I, I, a-and Single Strap, one more, "I thought Aikman was perfect with his breakdown and did it in a way that didn't crap on the kid, but he's absolutely right.
15:49
He has no field vision unless he's out of the pocket and scrambling. Can't hit a wide receiver on time from the pocket." I thought the same thing about Troy Aikman.
15:55
I thought he was really dignified about how he, how he tried to do that. He didn't crap on Caleb. I agree completely. He did it in a very kind, sort of, uh, constructive way. I thought that was good.
16:05
Let me just say this one thing before we get to Mark Borchardt here and talk baseball. I, I don't wanna put it all on Caleb because it does fall on the head coach as well, right?
16:15
You have to be able to, for me, if you're hiring an NFL head coach, you have to be able to hire and identify someone who is able to make adjustments.
16:27
That, to me, is the biggest single quality of what determines or what, what separates a great coach from a good coach, and that's a massive separator, right?
16:36
There's a lot of good coaches, Marty Schottenheimer, Chuck Knox in the past in NFL history, that get so far but can't get to a Super Bowl, let alone win one. They believe their way of playing football is the only way.
16:48
Any coach that is so, so myopic in their vision of how football is supposed to play but then doesn't make adjustments based on personnel, that falls on that coach, right? That's not on the guy.
17:01
That's not on the, on the quarterback to some degree also. Part of it's Caleb for sure, maybe even most of it, but part of it's the coaching staff to be able to say, "Okay, this is what this guy's good at.
17:13
We should tailor what we do to the personnel we have." And yes, I'll say it right here because I know people are expecting it. The greatest of all time to do that, the great Joe Jackson Gibbs back in the day.
17:23
Didn't matter if he did a one-back offense with, with Riggins. Didn't matter if he had the three great wide recei- receivers on offense.
17:29
Whatever the defense was doing, he would throw out his game plan in the first half if it didn't work, the, the game plan that he worked on all week long, because he was able to see the X's and O's well.
17:39
And we'll see if, uh, the la-- if the, uh, Bears' new coach, Ben Johnson, can do that. Let's talk some baseball. Mark Borchardt joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert.
17:48
You can follow him at basewinner, basewinner.com, and he's got his Bet US baseball show on a daily basis. Comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, man? Gil, I'm doing good.
17:58
You know, it's, I, I'm looking at this Yankees thing and I, I can't believe some of the lines. I think the Yankees are super valuable. You can play them in a lot of different markets. It's, it's pretty, pretty crazy.
18:08
Well, let's talk- So I hope- Yeah... maybe, maybe other people think the same thing because, uh, the, the numbers are strong on those guys. Well, you've been all over this.
18:16
So the whole run-up, the last month or so, right? As, as, as bad as the Yankees were playing, Judge was out of the lineup for a while. Um, you know, and, and we were saying, we were going division by division.
18:27
We're like, "Okay, where's... If there's any value, if, if the 12 teams that are currently on the inside looking out, who's the team on the outside looking in that could..."
18:35
I- in terms of a division now, so it's a difference- different topic, but maybe we'll get to that as well.
18:40
But in terms of the divisions, which of the, [clears throat] pardon me, of the six division leaders is the most vulnerable? And you, you stead- were steadfast about the Yankees.
18:48
And look up at the standings right now, they're down two games. So explain all the different markets that you would play in a- play them in right now. Well, there's...
18:56
Okay, well, first of all, they're, I can't, I can't believe they're plus 220 in the division market. Okay? And then they're... And number one seed.
19:04
So f- just, just kind of a background, if you guys don't know who, what I do, is I run the simulations based on the component ratings, uh, for each team.
19:13
And so the Yankees number one in baseball for me, but it also takes into account, uh, the, the difficulty of the schedule, or in the Yankees case, the lack of difficulty in their schedule.
19:25
So to win the division, I've got the Yankees 62% of the time, and they're priced at plus 220. And I, I say, "Well, maybe there's, maybe there's something wrong about these ratings."
19:34
But then I go to BaseRunner Expected Standings, and this is kind of a fun page that I do. It's, it's what their st- what their record should be.
19:42
It's real quick and dirty based on weighted runs created plus, XFIP minus, and defensive run saved.
19:46
Well, the Yankees number one in baseball throughout the season on th- on their body of work, 87.2 wins, and they only have 80 wins in the standings. They're actually just ahead of the Dodgers.
19:57
Uh, the Dodgers are the second-best team based on that, 85 wins. So I think just, you know, and, and you look at these components, you, you, you look at the bullpen.
20:05
And I was tr- I was comparing this, maybe we could talk about this next segment when we talk about the Detroit, 'cause they play each other, Detroit and the Yankees, the, the difference in the bullpen.
20:13
I can go g- go, go line by line, but their bullpen's really good. Of course, the offense is, is the best in baseball by my numbers. Uh, and the starting pitching, very formidable.
20:23
So yeah, all that, all that thrown in there, you got two really good plays on a, on a Yankees division. You got a Yankees number one seed. I think that's a really good play, Gil.
20:30
So Yankees division and Yankees number one seed you threw in there as well. Interesting. Does- Yeah, I've got the seed percentages at, like, 51% to win. They're plus 400. That might be a better bet.
20:41
Plus 400 to, to win, to get the number one seed. What are they in the market at? We'll check on the... Is that the market price currently or that's what you have them? That's what they were. Yeah. That's what they were.
20:49
I, I just- 401... I mean, that's why I'm so, I mean, I'm s- I'm sound- I'm sounding, like, really excited because I am. And I'm like, you know, I, I don't, like- Well, let's, let's extend this trade...
20:57
I'm trying to look at a flaw in the method, right? You know? Yeah, no, no, I love this. 'Cause plus 220 to win the division, four to one to be the number one seed.
21:03
By the way, the Yankees have the fifth easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball. Fifth easiest remaining schedule. If you ask where are the Blue Jays on that, the Blue Jays have the 12th hardest.
21:14
509 aggregate win percentage against, whereas the Yankees is 478 aggregate win percentage against. The only really tough teams the Yankees still play are the Tigers and the Red Sox remaining.
21:23
Would you extend it further, Mark? Would you extend it into the playoffs? Do they, in your opinion, do they have the construction of a team that can win the AL or the World Series? Well, World Series might be...
21:38
I mean, I think that, uh, you know, running all that stuff, uh, they've, they are priced about where they need to be. Like, I think they were plus 700 in the market. I've got them at plus 747.
21:49
I actually have Seattle, uh, with, at plus 694. So I like Seattle's team too. They're right there with the Yankees, uh, from an offensive standpoint. A- and, and the pitching goes in, into that as well.
22:02
So, uh, and then there's a couple starters like, uh, oh, uh, the guy that pitched yesterday, uh, uh, Ric Flair, uh, Brian Wu. [laughs] And, uh, and yeah. Him a- and, and of course, and of course Gilbert are good too.
22:13
So a- and I, I think that the Dodgers are, are, are, are really, they're overpriced still, uh, a- as bad as they've been.
22:20
And you're, uh, maybe they're, they're not as overpriced as they have been, but I got them with the, to win the World Series plus 562.
22:26
So I, I think the World Series market's a little bit different, which is interesting on the sims. Uh, I've got, I, I would say I would go with Seattle to do that. Uh- Okay.
22:35
So Yankees to win- I, I mean, they're 14 to 1, so that makes the, that makes the, the main, the main difference, Gil. Yeah. Yankees to win division plus 220, number one seed four to one.
22:42
But in terms of World Series, the Mariners the best value according to Mark at 14 to 1. We'll get his picks from today and more next with Mark. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:17
That's spelled B-R-A-C-C-O, playbracco.com. Gil Alexander, we get tweets, beating the book. Best listeners in the game. Y'all seriously most intelligent, most witty, uh, listeners a, a guy could, uh, ever want. John A.
23:31
Cornell Jr., uh, "Brian Flores failed as a head coach in Miami," he says.
23:35
"And Johnson, rather than onside kick, could have given the ball to Minnesota at the 40 or kicked it out of bounds and given the ball at the 35, thus saving the two-minute warning clock was at 02:02."
23:43
Yes, John, we covered the, uh, the onside kick. I would say onside kick was the first, uh, option because you got to try to get the ball back at that point.
23:52
Um, but yes, the second one would have been not to kick it to an actual player. Uh, don't run any time off the clock for sure. Um, as far as Brian Flores, you said he failed as a head coach in Miami.
24:04
Um, as memory serves, he went 5-11, 10-7, and 9-8. Is that really failing? I know there was off the field stuff which are unlikely to repeat, but those last two seasons ain't bad. You know what I mean?
24:21
Um, Brandon Webb, "Sounds like a solid workman's comp case for Kelly Bidlin. Forced to breathe paint fumes [laughs] for several days and then fall sick." Oh, I forgot about the paint fumes thing.
24:30
He might be right, might be onto something. Uh, Bruce Dobegan, "Es ju, gesundheit." Yes, I used the word es ju. Brian Schaefer31, "Hey, Gil, I wanted to send some soup to Kelly Bidlin from your favorite sushi place.
24:39
What's the name of it?" [laughs] I see what you're doing. And then Jonathan Doe, "The ManningCast is a must-see for Monday Night Football if you want a change up from the conventional broadcast.
24:47
I laughed out loud many times as usual. The stories, videos, whiteboard guests, Saquon, Randy Moss, et cetera, was awesome." Uh, yes, you are absolutely right. We've talked about the ManningCast before. It is great.
24:57
I forgot completely to watch it last night though, I must admit. Uh, let's talk more baseball. Mark Borchard joins us once again, @basewinner, basewinner.com, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:08
Uh, Mark, where can... If, if folks wanna listen to your Bet US daily baseball show, what's the easiest way to access? Just go to YouTube and s- and search for, uh, Bet US Baseball Show and you'll get there.
25:21
Are you solo? You doing it with other people? How do you, how do you roll with that? Yeah, no. Oh, no. The, the, the host, he's not as good as you, but he's a really good host.
25:27
[laughs] His name's Kyle Purvans, and he does a pretty good job. And, uh, and then the other two analysts got Corby, Corby Craig and Kenny McAndrews. So it's good. We all differ- have different styles of handicapping.
25:38
So, you know, I'm really analytical and, and model, model-driven, and the other guys u- use a little bit of that, but, but it's just, it's good because we, we don't have the same plays. We're not...
25:46
It's, it, it, there's some controversy on a daily basis- I like it... which is always good, I think, for a listen. Yeah. I like a little controversy. All right. What did you end up with today?
25:53
You already, uh, you already gave us a taste that you're on the Yankees against the Tigers? Yeah, you know, a show [laughs] would not be complete, Gil, on your show without giving a base winner parlay. Yes.
26:04
And so the base winner parlay today is the Yankees and the Mariners, the two teams that I just talked about on the earlier segment. Uh, and you just play a full game, nothing, nothing fancy.
26:14
Uh, and, and when it hits, it's gonna play pay plus 148. Uh, but, you know, the, the thing that I wanted to kind of bring out about, and this is one of...
26:22
This comes in the simulations with Detroit and the Yankees kind of leapfrogging Detroit for that number one seed, is the lack of bullpen, uh, anything, really depth.
26:32
I guess they have one c- one guy in the, in the bullpen for Detroit. So anyway, Detroit's, uh, bullpen unit is, is ranked 25th by my rank- rankings, and the Yankees are ranked number two. And I...
26:45
Just kind of going down, and I, I'll spare, like, everybody's rating, but the, the...
26:49
If you look at the, the col- collection of bodies in that Detroit bullpen, the only guy is their closer that's be- that's better than average based on last 150, uh, strikeout, uh, plate appearances strikeout percentage, last 300 plate appearances walk percentage, and last 150, uh, uh, plate appearances ground ball percentage.
27:09
So really, I think numbers that stabilize and are, are reflective of the talent in that bullpen. Anyway, Vest is 24% better than average. But you look down the rest of them, Montero, Melton, Holton, Conley, Hanafy, Horn.
27:23
They actually have another Montero. There are two Monteros in the same bullpen. Who would've thought? They're all below average pitchers. Then you look at this Yankees bullpen, and they go Bedner, Weaver, Cruz, Williams.
27:34
Those guys are all... Not only are they better than average, there's three of those guys, Bedner, Weaver, and Cruz, that are 30% or better than average, uh, from, from those using those metrics numbers.
27:46
And then they have Leiter and Yarbrough who are, who are better than average. So you have this really deep bullpen, uh, uh, against a Detroit bullpen that that's really concerning if you're a Detroit fan.
27:54
But anyway, it all kinds of comes out to, into the mixer today. Uh, the model's really not showing that much value on it. Uh, I have it right about where, where it is.
28:02
But I, I really like that, uh, uh, playing the good bullpens, uh, late in the season. And of course, Yankees number one, uh, offense in baseball, Gil. So Yankees against the Tigers.
28:13
The Mariners are hosting the Cardinals, so it's a Mariners-Yankees parlay.
28:17
And again, I can hear Steve Fezzik saying, "Mark Borchard, such an intelligent guy, this base winner, and then he comes on your show and he always gives a parlay." Uh, but that's his play. Yankees Marlin.
28:26
Uh, excuse me, Yankees, pardon me. Yankees-Mariners, let me get that right. Yankees-Mariners, which would play, uh, pay around plus 148. Uh, always shop around for the best prices on each.
28:34
Y- before you move on to another pick, I just wanna say this about the bullpens, 'cause I think I had this conversation with Spohrer earlier and not with you. First of all, I completely agree about the Yankees bullpen.
28:44
When I was sort of ranking the bullpens of the 12 teams that are currently in the playoff, in playoff position in both leagues, um, I said, I think I have the Yankees as one of the top bullpens in baseball, and I took a little incoming.
28:55
And my point was, people tend to get, uh, colored by the Devin Williams blowups. But it really is a, a, a bullpen with a lot of depth.
29:05
If you had to, because I think bullpens might be the biggest handicapping category for the postseason, the way that you structure, the way that you can actually throw a starter into the bullpen.
29:15
But let's just take bullpens in a vacuum right now.
29:18
Who have, uh, what are your rankings with the bullpens, and which of the p- current playoff teams, if the, if the playoffs were to start today, are the worst of the bunch? Well, the, the, the Tigers are the worst.
29:30
Uh, if you... So Yankees are two. The best bullpen, I don't think they're gonna get there, I think it's just too late in the season for them, are, are the Tampa Bay Rays. And then the third bullpen is Boston.
29:41
They're, you know, I think they'll get there, so that might help them out. And then the Mets are number four, Gil.
29:46
But the, the worst bullpens of, of teams going into the playoffs, uh, and that's decidedly, uh, the, the Tigers. And I'm just kind of looking down 'cause I'm, I'm looking at the card right now.
29:58
You know, the Brewers aren't that great either. Yeah. They're awful, uh, but they're 16th in, in baseball. Uh, and so they've...
30:05
I think, you know, gosh, the Brewers, I bet against them so many times, and they, they, they, the, the back end of that wouldn't give up a run, and I'd, I- I, I would double, triple check my numbers.
30:15
They weren't bad, you know, for on the advanced metrics, but they, they weren't elite. So I, I think that might, that might come home to roost in a bad way for Milwaukee, Gil.
30:23
No, that, that's all interesting 'cause I would have both the New York teams up there as well. Um, where do the Mariners rank in that group? Where do you have the Mariners bullpen?
30:30
'Cause people are sort of at- They're-... odds about them. Yeah, they're, they're top 15. Okay.
30:36
I, I think that they're better than my ra- there might be a, a guy that's injured that's, that's kind of like on the g- I'm looking at the current rating. Uh, but, uh, I don't know. I mean, Munoz, you know, people are...
30:48
He was tipping his pitches against the Yankees, so that's another, that's a whole different conversation. God, if we, we talk about 15 minutes on, on the Yankees.
30:54
I didn't even put that in the model, Gil, how [laughs] how they can pick up pitches, how they can tip pitches the best- Yeah... in, in Major League Baseball, right? Ah, don't look now. I love that phrase, Mark.
31:03
Don't look now, but the San Francisco Giants, who basically traded them all away, right, at the trade deadline. Yaz to the, uh, Royals. Are we allowed to call him Mike Yastrzemski, Yaz by the way? Uh, to the Royals.
31:14
[laughs] Obviously Tyler Rogers to the Mets, Duval to the Yankees. Late Night Lamont before that to the Angels. Uh, they're three out, but they still have seven left against the Dodgers in their remaining games.
31:27
Can this possibly happen? And if they did, where does their bullpen rank in all this? They're, they're top 15, but the prob- and they're not a bad team, Gil.
31:37
So they're 12th in baseball if you take the, you know, the offensive ratings minus the defensive ratings, the plus/minus on that. Um, and, and I mean, it's kind of, it would give it a little bit of intrigue.
31:47
There's really not much intrigue in this postseason picture. But I ran everything and, and I think they're priced about right.
31:53
I got 'em 8.6% chance to make the playoffs, which is the, they've got the best potential of all the teams. The Reds are 3.1%. Ah, that's- But I think that these things are, are locked in. I mean, but do you know what?
32:05
You can't, you really... As good as I am, I cannot quantify that Giants magic. That's right. You know something about the garlic fries- That's right... and the marijuana in the stands really kind of puts- [laughs]...
32:15
the other team to sleep, Gil. Oh, I see you've been then. Uh, yes. No, so you- Oh, absolutely. Yes. Yeah. 8, 8.6%, so you're saying there's a chance. Yes. There is a chance.
32:23
And you're always, you're always low on the magic that you put into your model. I've scolded you on this for many years.
32:28
Uh, last thing, do you have a straight bet today that people can, uh, latch onto besides the parlay? L- let's, let's give something for the masses here. Yes. You know, I'm gonna go, I'll give you two.
32:37
I, I like, uh, I like the Mets at plus 132. And M- Minaya still rates high, and when we talked about that bullpen, they're, they're better than the Phillies' bullpen.
32:46
A- and the Phillies, you know, missing Turner is, is a big, is a big deal in that lineup. So that's, you got that going. And then, uh, th- this Cade Horton versus Spencer Strider, I think the Cubs are value here.
32:57
I've got it priced at, like, minus 130-ish. They're p- they're pick 'em in the market. So, uh, the Cubs and the, and the, and the Mets, Gil. Those are good plays.
33:05
Cubs and Mets, two teams, again, on the inside looking out of the, uh, of the National League playoff, uh, picture right now as we head into the final few weeks. Uh, a little less than 20 games for everybody.
33:16
18, 19 games about there remaining for everybody else. By the way, last thing in five seconds. Spencer Strider never gonna be a thing again?
33:23
He's gotta s- switch from being vegetarian to eating meat, and then he might have a chance. There it is. There it is. That's the kind of analysis you like on the Bet US Baseball Show that Mark does.
33:32
@basewinner, basewinner.com. Thank you, Mark. Always a pleasure, man. Thanks, Gil. Appreciate it. Have a good one. My man. Coming back, football.
33:39
Overreactions from week one and some markets next on A Numbers Game with VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
The season may have started, but you can still jump into the VSiN Average Joe contest sponsored by Edge Boost. Each week you make seven picks, NFL or college, and the best score of the week wins $500.
34:05
Have an Edge Boost account already, then it's $1,000 every week.
34:09
And if that's not enough, there are quarterly prizes too, airfare to Las Vegas and a free two-night stay at Circa Resort, and your chance to be on a VSiN show. Say what now? A VSiN show? Free to play.
34:20
You can enter any time at vsin.com/joe. We got tweets that beat in the book. Wyatt, by the way, Wyatt is, uh, tripping off, uh, Mark Borchardt [laughs] saying that it smells like weed in San Francisco at the ballpark.
34:32
Josh Hamilton in the 2010 World Series for the Rangers playing right field complained about that. He said, "This whole place smells of weed." And everybody in San Francisco was like, "Yeah."
34:41
Yeah, this is a regular Tuesday for us. Well, 'cause you have to remember in 2010 it wasn't yet a common thing and it wasn't legalized in, in so many states.
34:49
But in California, especially in the Bay, we're just like, you know, this is kind of a way of life. I ju- I just love every time Mark's on he gives a, a great one-liner. Always.
34:57
We need to create the, a, just a, a record book of what he has. You mean like this one right here? Oh, you... You gotta... Oh, come on. [laughs] No, I don't have anything.
35:04
I don't think Darren knows we have- We don't have it ready to go. No. [laughs] You mean like this one right here? Got my mind on my money and my money on my mind. There it is. That's Mark Borchardt, everybody.
35:12
The, the rap is the better one. Baseball- Uh, Sonny Gray Oh, we don't wanna hear that one, do we? No. Ryan Hunter- Yeah... uh, loves it. He uses it for h- uh, his audio check, uh- [laughs]...
35:19
in the afternoons every, every day. Uh- It's my hook... we got tweets that beat you to the book.
35:23
Charles in Connecticut, "When huge tennis fans d- uh, don't watch the men's final 'cause opening day of the NFL, it's a huge problem for the sport. Uh, how many others like yourself move to Sunday night?
35:33
At least people may change the channel during Sunday Night Football commercial, uh, half the time, and if the match is good, maybe stay for a few minutes." Yeah, Charles, uh, you're right.
35:41
I mean, look, I'm, there's no bigger tennis fan than I am, but that's always been the tradition, right?
35:47
A tradition unlike any other that the US Open men's final is always smack dab in the middle of week one Sunday of the NFL for as long as I can remember. That's always how it's been. You're probably right. Listen, I...
35:59
And maybe it's 'cause I do a show the next day and I wanna know all the details for guessing lines of everything that I didn't watch it. Otherwise, I would've. But yeah, certain... I mean, football is football, man.
36:09
As much as I love tennis, football is football. It's the same thing f- with me for NASCAR. I, I'm a hu- I love NASCAR, I love to bet it and whatnot, but once the NFL season comes on- Oh, yeah...
36:17
it's like I, I gotta remember to put it on la- if I don't put it on a laptop, it's not- I'm not gonna be able to watch Football, I, I just, and I hate to sound corny, but it's like- But it's, it-...
36:25
football, the first, I'll say this again, the first time I ever laid eyes on football, I could think of nothing else. Mm-hmm. I'm six years old. Like, so that's not going away.
36:32
I, I think also the thing is, is we only have 17 weeks of it. Like, you only get a certain amount. That's right. That's right. 17 games. By the way- 17 games, yeah...
36:40
speaking, speaking of that, I short-changed Brian Flores when I was going through, uh, his records. I said 5-11, 10-7, 9-8. It's actually 5-11, 10-6, and 9-8 in a 16-game schedule there in year two.
36:52
Uh, Real Nicks, "Before you totally get off baseball"... Ugh, Real Nicks, you're right.
36:57
Says, "Before you totally get off baseball, my Cleveland Guardians," or as he calls them, my Clevelands, [laughs] 'cause he refuses to say Guardians, "are 73 and 70 and play 16 of their final 19 inside the division where they thrived this year.
37:11
I can easily see a path to at least 500. Sorry, brother, they're not going away." Dude, every night I have this reminder.
37:17
I look up at the Guardians score and I'm like, how is this minus run differential outfit flirting with their season win total of 82 and a half? Go away, Guardians. Lose some ballgames. Come on.
37:28
And by the way, their opponents, come on, Royals, show up tonight. Dan Groeschel, "My biggest overreaction to week one, I worry about my four to one ticket on the Saints to win the fewest games.
37:37
Which is more im- which is more impressive, a team successfully having an intentionally bad year, for example, the Saints, or a team accidentally having a terrible year, [laughs] for example, the Dolphins?"
37:47
Well, I think you know the answer. It's the latter. Phil Blundell, uh, "The period where they had the US Open final at 3:00 Eastern on the Monday before Monday Night Football was the best. Just move it back then."
37:58
Um, okay. So a little adjustment in time you're selling, you're saying. Uh, all right, Wyatt, I'm going in blind to this segment.
38:04
This is sort of overreactions or, or not, n- I shouldn't say overreactions, but this is just some markets now after week one in the NFL. And we're, you and I are both seeing this for the same time, or at least I am.
38:13
I don't know if you're seeing them for the same time. I, I- Yeah... took a look yesterday. Oh, okay. [laughs] This is, this is for the AFC number one seed.
38:20
So obviously the Bills with that amazing comeback win over the Ravens, 41 to 40. So it d- if it does end up in a tiebreaker at the end of the season, the Bills on the head-to-head would get the number one seed.
38:32
And remember, the number one seed in this current NFL format, so important because you get the bye. Remember, it used to be the one and twos. Now it's just the ones now here for several years.
38:42
The Bills are even money, and the Ravens are plus 475. Now a lot of folks are gonna look at that and say, "Wow, that's a, that's a massive adjustment based on the win." But think about it.
38:54
They get the tiebreaker in the event that that happens, and the Bills' schedule is as easy as it gets, and the Ravens game is in the rear view. So even money on the Bills to be the number one seed.
39:08
Wow, the Ravens all the way to plus 475. Um, for full edification here, Chargers 701, Broncos plus 850, and the Chiefs at 0-1 are nine to one. Hmm. Would you bet the Ravens there at plus 475
39:25
one game into the season knowing that they wouldn't have a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bills? No, I- And that the Bills have this easy schedule.
39:32
I think, uh, yeah, the, the, the schedule part for the Bills is, is going to throw me off here for the Raven. I, I just don't know- It's gonna tempt a lot of people. Yeah. I'm not saying I'm not tempted- Yeah...
39:40
even knowing all that- You know-... 'cause it's one game... you know what I'm kinda tempted by? Yeah, I know it, obviously we're overreaction to week one.
39:46
The Chargers at plus 700, you look at their next, uh, handful of games here, and, and really a lot of their schedule, s- it's, it s- sets up pretty nicely. Remember they finished, did they finish second or third?
39:57
I believe they finished third in the AFC West last year, so obviously that helps out with the, with the scheduling. But I liked what I saw with them. Herbert, uh, uh, the defense, an impressive win against Kansas City.
40:08
I mean, their next three games are against, uh, the Raiders. Uh, the Broncos did not look very good. They play the Giants. The Commanders game will be tough. Then you got the Dolphins and the Colts.
40:16
I mean, like, there's- I'm just, I'm just gonna stop you and just say I can't do the Chargers as a number one seed. No, no Chargers? Okay.
40:22
I ca- I, un, listen, and it's one of those where if, if it happens, I'm happy to let it get away from me. Mm-hmm. 'Cause the, it just, I, of all the bets I could make, I'm not sure that's one I would.
40:30
That was the only one that I could- Yeah... uh, look at and be like- Yeah... "That might be tempting with the number." I think you might.
40:34
I mean, I think you're probably right that it does tempt some, but that's interesting. Plus 475 on the Ravens. Uh, what's next here, uh, Danny? Do we have, uh, the equivalent for the NFC number one seed?
40:43
I'll just follow your lead. Here's the NFC number one seed. The Packers and Eagles are co-short shots for the number one seed after just one week [laughs] of the NFL season. I love it. Put all the money on Green Bay.
40:54
[laughs] Packers and Eagles, Wyatt is a Packers fan, are both plus 390.
40:58
The Niners, and we'll get to the Niners here when we do Survivor because they have a Brock Purdy injury problem now, uh, heading in perhaps to week two.
41:07
Niners are plus 450, but remember, the Niners, if there's a schedule even easier than that of the Bills, it is that of the Niners. So the Niners are plus 450 based on schedule more than anything. Bucs six to one.
41:19
Washington Commodores seven to one. The Rams plus 750 rounding out the single digits teams. Um, I do not believe there to be a bet there except for the Packers and Eagles.
41:34
And then the Niners I want to with the easy schedule, but look, they, they have this injury history problem here in recent history, and it is already massive this early in the season again.
41:44
And just to, uh, for those who missed it with the Niners, uh, George Kittle got knocked out of the game against the Seahawks on Sunday. He's sidelined for multiple weeks with a hamstring injury.
41:54
Uh, maybe even gonna put him on IR because of the, because of the nature of a hamstring injury.
41:58
And then Brock Purdy day-to-day with a left shoulder and a toe injury, leaving his status uncertain for the upcoming game against the Saints. Um, Mac Jones- Who?...
42:09
your, your QB two in San Francisco if Brock Purdy is unable to go this week- That, that-... against the Saints... that is very concerning that we're already one week in and the 49ers are just decimated with injuries.
42:19
Losing Kittle for a handful of weeks- Huge... with a hamstring, that is massive. And all of a sudden now Purdy is banged up. It's like I, I, I- This is the most cursed franchise with injuries. Um- Su- sure has been.
42:30
I, I was w- curious. W- I wanna ask you, uh, any thought about the Rams? I know it wasn't great offensively.
42:35
I know they have a lot of new pieces that it will try to bring together, mainly Stafford and Davante Adams, but a nice- I, I-... nice win against the Texans...
42:42
I'm perfectly comfortable saying that I have no handle on the Rams. Okay. Whatsoever. I may not have a handle on anything [laughs] but I certainly don't have a handle on the Rams. Gotcha. Let's put it that way.
42:51
Uh, any others here, Danny? We wanna go b- past the number one seeds, or was it only the number one seeds that we had here? I think we might do MVP. Uh, let's go MVP. Yeah. Let's do MVP real quick.
43:00
Uh, this is, this should be fascinating after week one. [laughs] Josh Allen with the frenetic comeback. Actually, not even that frenetic.
43:06
He looked as calm as could be, just picking apart the Ravens', uh, defense on the comeback. 40 to 25 deficit erased by Josh Allen and the, uh, and the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen plus 320 to win his back-to-back MVP.
43:21
Lamar Jackson plus 380 to win what would be his third in four years, and quite frankly, would've been his fourth in four years if people were doing it right. Here's where it gets pretty interesting for me.
43:33
The two quarterbacks taking on each other Thursday night, Jayden Daniels and Jordan Love, are both 10 to one. Then Mahomes and Burrow at 11 to one. Herbert 12 to one. Hurts 15 to one.
43:43
Jayden Daniels, now I'm gonna be accused of being a homer here. Okay, Allen and Jackson are the obvious short shots.
43:51
But Jayden Daniels, who lots of folks, right, "Oh, he can't be as good as he was his rookie year," and I kept saying, "Y'all didn't watch him then. This is not a candidate for a sophomore slump. He is cerebral.
44:01
He makes quick decisions. He's always making the right decision. He has the athleticism to get out of jams. He has the arm to get out of jams."
44:10
If you think about Jayden Daniels here, 10 to one to get ahead of it, like he has a mass- If he has a great game Thursday night, that ain't gonna be 10 to one anymore.
44:19
That's a consideration for me, as a guy who had him as Rookie of the Year last year. Hey, look at our guy, Aaron Rodgers, 50 to one. Come on, Gil. Yeah, no, that's all right. [laughs] That's all right.
44:27
I mean, I li- I, I think he's good, but he's- [laughs]... not what he used to be, let's put it that way. Drew Dincic on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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