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Apr 10, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 10, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 10, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:19
This is a numbers game, un partido de numeros, for those, uh, listening in Spanish today. Oh, muy bien. JVT on the show, co-host of VSiN Prime Time, our senior NBA analyst.
0:31
Uh, coming up, Will Hill, all his plays in baseball and beyond. Come on, Guardians. Can't lose like that yesterday. Need a bounce back today. Ben Ross of Full Masters Talk.
0:40
Ben Ross from, uh, Stochastic and Oddshopper, talking 88th Masters with us. Jason Weingarten as well, he's got some golf bets.
0:50
Uh, we should probably mention at the beginning of the show, because we'll, we'll mention it a couple times, we're obviously, like everybody, in full Masters mode. We have not one, we have two podcasts.
0:58
Don't listen to it while we're on the air, but after we're off, you know, you can listen to it whenever the rest of the day.
1:02
Uh, but we have a Long Shots podcast that's out there with, uh, Kelly Bidlin, my friend over here, uh, Wes Reynolds, and Matt Brown. And then we also have the, uh, Beating the Book Masters podcast, the 88th.
1:14
We've done this for over a decade. Uh, you and Wes were kind enough to join me, as well as Sia Najad. Um, so there's a little of something for everything. How would you even distinguish?
1:23
Like, Long Shots is a little more, uh, uh, numbers driven. Um- Mm-hmm... uh, does every L- Long Shots, uh, podcast devolve into, um, Wes and Matt fighting at the end, and you screaming, and then it goes to black?
1:36
[laughs] No, no, it does not. No. But it should. No. That, that should be every Long Shots podcast. Yeah, every, yeah, it'd be more fun. That would be more fun.
1:42
And, uh, the Beating the Book podcast is a little more Jewisher, I think, is how I would distinguish the two. [laughs] I believe is- Yeah, I mean- 'Cause we talk about college basketball and somehow got in there as well.
1:52
Yeah, there, there, there was a little bit of a, a, a break at the golf talk. A little bit of a break in there.
1:57
But yeah, I, I mean, as you always do, I think you did a, you did a great job guiding me, Wes, and, and Sia- Well, thank you... through the kind of more general Masters themes and con- Oh, thank you...
2:06
you know, conversations. And yeah, Long Shots is definitely more detailed. Wes and I will be doing another one today to kind of recap- Oh my God... recap all the bets we ended up making. Enough already. I know.
2:17
Recap all the bets we ended up making. Um, I don't know, I might just hang out in the circus studio all afternoon and just bring in people. Yeah. Who knows? Yeah.
2:25
Gil, if you don't mind, I'ma go listen to Long Shots 'cause, uh, there's less of you and your kind on yours, on the, on that one rather than yours, if you know what I mean.
2:34
Uh, okay, like, can we start with the NBA for a second? Let's do it. I, I hesitate to do this
2:40
because it's really convoluted, even with two or three games left in the season, respectively for every team, um, as we near the, uh, the playoffs finally, or the play-in, more accurately.
2:51
But I'm gonna try to go through this because it could inform your make-miss playoff bets in the NBA. Could also inform something later in the week, which I wanna ask you about.
3:01
Um, so right now, let's just start in the East. Well, let's just do the West real quick. Wolves, Nuggets, big game tonight. Uh, Wolves own the tiebreakers over both the Thunder and the Nuggets. You should know that.
3:16
Right now, uh, Denver and Minnesota dead heat tie, 55 and 24, with the Thunder one game behind. Um, but again, Wolves own the tiebreakers over the Thunder and the Nuggets if it were to come to that.
3:29
Split the series with the Thunder, split the division record, um, but that, they could win that outright with a win versus the Nuggets tonight.
3:36
Uh, own the third tiebreaker conference record over, or, or over OKC, if you care. Um- Y- yeah, the only one that gets funky with that one, Gil, is if they all, so what if all three teams tie? Three-way.
3:49
Yeah, 'cause then the tiebreaker rules are a little different. Right, it would be, I guess, head-to-head sweep, division record, conference record, I believe. It, it's the, i- it's the division winner, yeah.
3:59
Division winner. So the division winner gets crowned. Division winner. That's correct, division winner. Yes. Um, Clippers, uh, who had a big win yesterday.
4:06
Clippers, [laughs] Clippers led their game yesterday against Phoenix, nine to nothing, 19 to two, and 34 to five. No, 35 to four. Pardon me, even worse. Yep.
4:17
Uh, Clippers two in the, uh, or up on the Mavericks for the four seed by two games. They own the tiebreaker over the Mavericks. Uh, Mavs have the tiebreaker over Phoenix.
4:25
Warriors with that big win over the Lakers last night, where they hit 26 threes. Warriors have a tiebreaker over the Lakers now for the ninth position, if you would, if you will.
4:39
Warriors, Warriors do not have a tiebreaker against the Suns, potentially. Suns would have it over the Warriors. Warriors yet to be determined versus the Kings. It's goes on and on.
4:47
Lakers tiebreaker over the Suns, have lost it to the Kings and Warriors. Still to decide against the Pelicans. You could do it from every team's perspective.
4:55
Pelicans have the tiebreaker over the Kings, have lost it to the Suns, have one game left to decide versus the Lakers, as we said. Suns have it over the Warriors and Pelicans. I mean, it's such a log jam, right?
5:04
Have lost to the Lakers. Still to be determined against the Kings.
5:08
And from the Kings' perspective, they have the tiebreaker over the Lakers, have lost to the Pelicans, split with the Warriors, and have a crucial game left versus the Suns.
5:14
So again, it's all basically you need to know where those seedings will land. The East is a little more interesting. So all that that I just said, you know, have fun with that. What, what? Jesus.
5:26
Oh, 'cause you're, my man is right behind. So again, we have 30 video poker machines, and there's a dude who's decided to play the one right behind Kelly and is coughing up a storm.
5:34
There he is, right behind Kelly, and Kelly is losing it. [laughs] All right. Bucs beat the Celtics last night. Celtics are the number one seed. Hey, we're having a, we're having a little security. There you go.
5:46
Uh, Bucs... So the Celtics are the number one seed no matter what, doesn't matter. They won't have the t- one of the top 15 records of all time. Don't worry about that.
5:55
But they will be the number one seed, the Celtics will. But the Bucs with that win yesterday, they still own the tiebreaker now over Orlando and New York. The Bucs inhabit the number two position in the East.
6:06
One loss better than the Knicks, two loss, two better in the loss column over the Magic and the Cavaliers. But while the Bucs currently own the tiebreaker over the Knicks and Magic, they do not own it over the Cavaliers.
6:19
The Cavaliers and the Bucs split. The Cavs have it on division record over the Bucs. Yep. Yeah, they still have.
6:28
And I'm going to, I'll jump in here as you're going through here with, with the just pro basketball reference does a great job of kind of going through what the probabilities are for each team to land in each seed.
6:37
So right now Bucs, Bucs 66.2% chance at that two seed. You're talking Cavs 16% and the Knicks about 12%. Right. Informed by all those tiebreakers. Correct. Yes.
6:49
By the way, it should be noted for those who are, you know, remember the in-season tournament, that the reason that the Cavs
6:57
own the tiebreaker over the Bucs is, and I said on division record, is because the Pacers beat the Bucs in the in-season tournament. And so if they hadn't done that, it wouldn't be the Cavs winning the tiebreaker.
7:13
So the in-season tournament actually has an effect on this. Just a side note. Yeah. The, man, the Cavs, the Cavs seeding probabilities are crazy right now. Oh, it's crazy. It's ridiculous.
7:23
It is 16% for two, 13% for three, 30% for four seed, 22% for five seed, 12% for six seed. We're talking there's only five more days left in the regular season. Okay. Because I'm already bored talking about this, right?
7:39
I want to move on to a more interesting subject. Now that should inform your, you know, yes and no's to make the playoffs. Yes, no's to make the play-ins, whatever markets you're betting in. By the way, one more thing.
7:49
Indiana does control its destiny for the five seed if they win out. One back of the Cavs, play them still this week, have a tiebreaker over the Knicks. It's a whole thing. But here's what I really want to ask you. Okay.
8:03
So let's say we get to the weekend, right? There's still, some of these are going to be determined a little beyond what we just talked about. Take a team like the Magic, okay? I want to ask you about this.
8:14
So the Magic right now are in the four spot. Mm-hmm. Do you believe that if they enter like their final game, do you think seeding will care with, seeding will matter to these teams?
8:29
So in other words, if the Magic can figure out a way to not get into the Celtics stack, let's just take the Magic as an example, right?
8:38
So if the Magic, right now they're in four, they'd have to play theoretically, right? They'd have to play the Cavs right now, but really then they'd have to play the Celtics in round two if all went out.
8:50
Do you think a team like, and it might not just be the Magic, but any of these teams, like, but let's just use them as example. If they can lose to assure themselves
9:00
a three rather than a two, or if they can win to assure themselves a, or lose to assure themselves a five instead of a four, just to avoid the Celtics in round two, do you think teams will do that just from a handicapping perspective this weekend?
9:16
No. Not losing. I mean, when you're talking in that range, the problem is it's home court, right? Like you're not- Four or five is home court. Right. But three, four would not be.
9:26
Or excuse me, two, three would not be for the first round. Yeah, for the first round. Correct. Yes. I don't, but I don't know if, I don't think they're not going to be in that position where they could have that option.
9:36
I don't- They might be. I don't think you're, you don't want to- Oh no, they won't be for two, three. Yeah... you don't want to fall back. I don't think you want to fall back.
9:42
I mean, maybe if you were, these teams are just going to be too closely clumped together is the problem. You know, even like, it's just one of the, I feel like we talked about that during the NFL season.
9:51
Even if you try to do something, you don't know what these other teams are going to do.
9:55
Well, the two, three thing could happen because they could be in a position where if they won, theoretically they could get the two seed, but instead they'll just say, yeah, let's not try to win this game. Right.
10:04
It wouldn't be like they'd be falling from two to three, but they would have the opportunity to go from three to two. Yeah, yeah. And would shun that. Yeah, I agree. That one a little bit different.
10:11
I think that if you're in that four seed, nah, you're still, especially with these teams in the Magic being as young as they are, that home court first round is going to be so big for them.
10:20
I just think that conversation is worth having every year. Plus they've owned the Celtics the past like two years. Because books do funny, that's right. Because books do funny things the last day of the season.
10:32
Even some of the more proud books who claim to take all kinds of action when it comes down to like money line parlay Sunday, they limit folks to like 25 bucks or something. Yep. And I'm talking about the big books.
10:48
So the books are well aware of these thoughts. And I'm just curious if we make more of seeding than the actual teams do. Um, no. Something to ponder, I guess is what I'm saying as you go into the weekend and stuff.
11:03
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think almost every team, every position, situation is different.
11:08
I don't necessarily would say in general though that we care more or less than the teams do about their seeding when you get to this point. I think we do sometimes though. Think so? I do.
11:18
I think like as betters, we tend to dive into every possibility. And so we ultimately end up making more of some things than our actual reality. But it's something to consider.
11:32
And I think every year you have to talk about that. But with two, three games left, my God, it's almost an impossible task to try to unravel. Hopefully we let some insight there.
11:41
JBT on the NBA on the other side and a whole bunch of masters right here on a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network.
11:56
With a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with the free VSiN Daily Newsletter. Oh, it's all Masters stuff. We've got stuff from Wes. We've got stuff from the betting primer.
12:05
We've got long shots, uh, promos, and, uh, every- all the podcast details that we've been doing, all Masters all week here, VSiN. Wow, you really diving. You really are into the newsletter today. Yeah, that's right.
12:16
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12:24
By the way, we should mention, and we'll bring JBT in here for this, uh, Giannis with the injury in that Bucks win over the Celtics last night, um, immediately everyone starts asking me, 'cause of the two Achilles popping, that, uh, "Is that an Achilles?"
12:38
We didn't get the Zapruder film of the, of the back of his leg, but my comment to, uh, Felika and Will was he didn't have the my Achilles popped expression, the expression of confusion.
12:48
And as we, uh, learned today that the, uh, left Achilles is intact, and, uh, he is good to go after the MRI. Not good to go, but at least it's not the worst.
12:58
Um, how quickly his left calf strain will heal will determine, per Woj, uh, when he'll be back. Yeah, the, uh, e- everybody...
13:06
A- I feel like everybody's instant reaction I've heard was, "Oh, this is Kevin Durant all over again," like before the Achilles injury. I, I, I guess I'm a lit- I'm convinced Durant's popped anyway the first time.
13:18
I, I'm a- Like it's- Well, and I'm a little...
13:20
Like, I guess I'm, I'm a little shocked by, by h- the a- just the initial reactions are still how m- h- like, there's a lot of concern over this, and not so much viewing this as, as good news that it's [laughs] the MRI came back clean.
13:35
I mean- I mean, don't get me wrong, I think he's gonna be banged up for the next couple of weeks. Oh, it's- But I, I don't think your season's over now, we're talking about It ain't good, let's put it that way.
13:43
JBT is our senior NBA analyst. He's also the co-host of, uh, VSiN Prime Time, which he does with Tim Murray each and every weeknight here at the network. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
13:52
How you doing, John? Jonathan Montoble. Should probably say his name. How you doing, John? I, I'm good. I'm good. And, uh, Gil, I think, you know, you could speak to this 'cause like you said, you had it, right?
14:00
'Cause there's also that thought, I think it was Kobe that said it, that he thought somebody had kicked him, right? Or something like that- Yes... when he popped his Achilles.
14:06
That's always, yeah, that's always the thought. There's that sensation that you think that somebody hit you in the back or whatever.
14:09
But I, I'd like to add real quick, I actually think there is reason for concern, only because I don't know if you guys saw Damian Lillard's comments yesterday.
14:16
Um, but he suffered the same injury, and he had told the media that it was about a two-week recovery process for him. A- and so two weeks puts you into the postseason- Yeah... puts you into that first round.
14:27
Uh, and if that's the case, right? 'Cause you don't wanna hurry him back 'cause a calf can be pretty touchy. And of course, as we learned, right?
14:33
If you're not fully healthy in a calf, then you use other muscles, then maybe that leads to further damage.
14:37
So if it's, let's say, a three-six matchup between you and an Indiana team that you're one and four against, and you're doing it without Giannis Antetokounmpo, a- at least for the first two or three games, I mean, guys, we saw the beginning of that Miami Heat series last year, right?
14:49
He got hurt at the beginning of that series. Yeah, Miami Heat bombed away at an unsustainable rate, but they ended up losing that.
14:53
So I do think there is cause for concern in terms of if Damian Lillard is correct in terms of the timeline, then that puts you on some shaky ground here if you're the Milwaukee Bucks. Yeah, for sure. For sure.
15:06
We, we were throwing this around a little last segment, not, not when it came to the Bucks, but I, I just used it through the lens of an Orlando Magic. Yeah.
15:13
Do you, do you think as bettors and as NBA observers, we overrate teams looking at the standings and jockeying for the seeding that they would want?
15:24
In other words, m- do we have late, and I'm talking about the last weekend of the NBA season, so the Friday and the, really the Sunday, where every team plays both on Friday and Sunday, but really the last Sunday, where a team can look up at the standings and say, "Okay, if we win this game, we're gonna be this seed, and that will match us up with Team X.
15:45
Uh, I don't know if we want that. Why don't we lose this and end up in a first round matchup against this other team? We'd prefer that, and then it might even help us later in the, in the playoffs."
15:55
Do you think that happens? I mean, I think we know it does, right? At, at least it, it doesn't happen as often as I think we believe it happens. Yeah. But Gil, my team, the Clippers, did it a few years back.
16:05
They wanted the Dallas Mavericks, and so they went and they tanked out the regular season. I think it was the last two games, if I remember correctly, uh, against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
16:13
There was, like, this tank-off where both of the teams didn't wanna win, [laughs] and they had, like, their C teams in. It was nuts.
16:18
So I don't think it happens as often, and I also think, you know, the Clippers kind of learned their lesson in tanking in that matchup because then all of a sudden they were in a first round series with Luka Dončić and they were like, "Holy bleep, this sucks."
16:28
[laughs] Like, "This guy's awesome." What have we done? So I, I think, yeah, right. And, you know, they eventually won the series, but I, I think that that's, we have seen it before.
16:36
I don't think it happens as frequently, though, as we might think it is.
16:39
And especially now, down the stretch of a season like this, where you have a team that in, like Indiana or New York, like New York's a great example. New York I think can finish as high as two and as low as eight, guys.
16:50
Like that's, that's insane. You don't have room to move around there. It's crazy. Yeah.
16:54
You should just win and let the cards fall as they may, and I think that's probably what we're gonna see here these last couple of games. I think I've a- I've asked this of Drew Dinsick on the show.
17:01
I'm not sure if I asked this of you, and I'd be curious your thoughts. As a bettor,
17:07
is there a series, first round series in the West or the East that you are praying happens because you know that the betting line is going to be completely different than what you would have it at?
17:21
I, I don't know if it'll be this. We actually talked about this yesterday on VSiN Prime Time.
17:25
I would be fascinated to see what the, the market would do with Phoenix and Oklahoma City, because I, I, I noticed that if you track the market, right, and yesterday was a good example, James Harden gets ruled out, that number really balloons up to, like, nine and a half for the Phoenix Suns.
17:38
We know what happens last night. But the market, I think the way I put it is it's been waiting for any opportunity for the Suns to be good, so it can kind of like jump on this team- Yeah... that we expect it to be good.
17:47
And you saw a little glimmer of that, and their market rating, like, skyrocketed.
17:51
So when you get a team like Phoenix, who had all these preseason aspirations that the market was very high on, that it's still very high on, taking on Oklahoma City Thunder team that lacks that experience, how cheap is that price for the Oklahoma City Thunder to win that series against the Phoenix Suns?
18:05
I don't think we're in a situation, remember a couple years back, I think it was against the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers were favorites even though they were, like, seven seeds against a two seed.
18:12
But I do think there's a reality in which we're probably getting some value on the Oklahoma City Thunder if that's our first round matchup, and get a pretty cheap price to lay with OKC.
18:20
That's the one that's at the top of my head. I think that that's, that, that was the answer when I first brought this up in February.
18:25
That was the same series that Drew brought up, which is Phoenix OKC, because it has all the elements you're talking about, right? Yep.
18:31
The, the market or the public, but the market, the betting market is desirous to have the Suns be this big three behemoth, and the, and juxtaposed against the lack of experience, as you said.
18:44
And that will be- By the way, that could manifest, right? Like, it could happen in the post-season- Yes...
18:49
where all of a sudden Phoenix becomes this, "Oh, look, they're so much better than these kids are," when it really comes down to it. Or it could just be what we saw in the regular season, and it's just a mirage.
18:59
I mean, go back to last year. Kelly and I, you know, we, we did this on the Harvard Handicappers when it was still going. Like, Kelly, remember, they were favorites over Denver in that series- Yep...
19:07
in the semifinals, right? Yeah. And you and I both were like, "I don't understand what's going on here." A- and that was Denver, who we saw signs of being a pretty dominant team.
19:16
And now in this time around, by the way, you have Bradley Beal mixed into the equation. That team didn't even have Bradley Beal.
19:22
And, and you get OKC that they had a big comeback last night, but has kind of fallen down by the wayside a little bit. I think they're like 5 and 16 against the spread in their last 21 games.
19:30
Like, this is something that I think is real. Again, I don't think they would be underdogs.
19:34
The market's done crazy things, so I could be wrong, but I do think we're gonna get a pretty cheap series price if that is a first round series, and that's one I'm hoping we get. Okay.
19:41
Denver and Boston are the presumptive favorites to get to the NBA Finals. If it's not Boston, and if it's not Denver, give me the teams in each conference that are more, most likely to get there, in your opinion.
19:53
Well, in the East, I think the, the fallback right now would be the, the Philadelphia 76ers, just because Joel Embiid is back. He actually looks pretty good.
20:00
And when he was playing, he looked like he was going to walk away with this MVP award had he been healthy.
20:05
Now, I will say Boston, I'm coming more around with the, on the thought that Boston should walk through this Eastern Conference.
20:10
It's setting up very nicely for them, so it should be the case, but I think right now Philly's the easy answer. In the West, I think it becomes a little bit harder, and I'll be somewhat stubborn.
20:19
Look, I do think that the, what is lost a lot of the Clippers' struggles in the last month have been the fact that there've been a lot of guys who have been in and out of the lineup.
20:26
Every single one of their key members has been in and out of the lineup.
20:29
And if we're believing what the Clippers are saying, which is MRI is clean, Kawhi is gonna be fine, he's gonna be back by the time the post-season starts, I, I don't know why I would come off of a team that has now won 9 out of their last 12 games, has started to turn things around defensively, and is starting to play very well.
20:43
Paul George is starting to play really well. You know, somebody who has invested in them at pretty good prices, Gil, I'll just stick by the fact that, look, it's, it's a large sample size of data.
20:51
I think they made it through the noise. They're starting to turn things around, and if you give me Kawhi Leonard in a playoff series against anybody, uh, outside of maybe the Denver Nuggets, I'll take that Clippers team.
20:59
All right. Uh, before we get to your picks tonight, thought exercise that I did earlier this week. Boston Celtics, you may just have hinted at your answer. Total number of losses through the Eastern Conference playoffs.
21:08
The line is set at five and a half. Under. Under. No, without hes- I, I said a three- Without hesitation... yesterday. Yeah. Wow. I set it at three yesterday, so. Wow.
21:16
Look, it's like, we, like we talked about, this is setting up for them, and I'll just say really quick because I know... But, like, th- this is one where you should not screw this up now if you're Boston.
21:24
[laughs] We have seen them stumble so many times. The Bucs are falling apart. Giannis is hurt. Every other team is jockeying for position, but they're all the same similar team power rated against one another.
21:33
The Knicks are banged up. The 76ers are a seven seed, are gonna be in the play-in. If you don't get out of this Eastern Conference with three to five losses, I, I think it's a failure with this team.
21:44
And if they don't make it out at all, it's an absolute failure. I mean, I was gonna say, a year ago, would- wouldn't we have said the same thing and then the Heat did what they did? Yep. Yeah.
21:51
What do you like tonight, John? Uh, so I haven't really bet. The only thing I did was I took a pretty good number on, um, on Miami here, and I put a little on the money line, 'cause here's the thing.
21:59
Dallas, their magic number to clinch that six seat or the five seat is only one, but they have Detroit in their next game.
22:05
So I actually think there's more of a reality, even though the Heat had a double overtime game yesterday, that they actually maybe sit some guys, don't really care about this game, 'cause all they need is one more win to clinch that five seed, and they're not surpassing the Clippers.
22:15
So i- it was just kind of a guess because there's a lot of noise with the injury reports today, but that was the only one here. Heat, and then a little bit on the money line.
22:21
Johnathan Vontobel, everybody, @meJVT, co-hosting, uh, Visa Primetime with Tim Murray, 6:00 PM Eastern, weeknights here at the network. JVT, thank you, sir. Enjoy the games. Good to talk to you as always, guys.
22:32
Thank you. Johnathan Vontobel liking his Angels, uh, start to the year as well, I would, I would imagine. I like that. Just quick, a couple injury notes real quick. Reports coming down.
22:39
Giannis expected to miss rest of the season. Kat, Trae Young back next couple days. He means regular season. Will Hill next. For a limited time, we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits for free.
22:49
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22:56
Find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money, once again, does not match the public opinion. You can check out not just today's action, but future events as well.
23:06
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23:16
Visit visa.com/splits and starts make- and start rather making smarter bets today. I think you're right. I think that's where you put it in. Oh, we found our rhythm. Unstoppable now.
23:26
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, live from Barca. At the end of the day, it's a numbers game. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Uh, Michael Harrison, "Just finished listening to the Masters podcast.
23:35
Gil is so professional and well-spoken on ANG that when I hear him swear on the Megapod, it feels like hearing your teacher or grandparent curse for the first time as a kid." [laughs] "Lol, keep up the greatness."
23:45
I got another tweet where someone was like, "I had you c- I had Gil cursing over one and a half times. I cursed early and then never again." He was like, "That was a really tough beat that he took." Ooh.
23:54
Yeah, it was a tough beat. That is tough. Tough beat.
23:56
The, uh, it's funny 'cause i- it, definitely when you're doing that podcast, the, the, the first one that you dropped, I kind of th- I'm like, "Oh yeah, like I can loosen up." Oh, just a bit.
24:03
But then I'm like, I had other show... Like, I had, I had to do the Long Shot show like an hour later, and I get really in my head about that 'cause you know me off air, like I c- Uh-huh... I could swear like a sailor.
24:13
And it's one of those like- I've heard you. Yeah, you're like, "Okay, stay dialed into on air mode so you don't go, don't go down that path." Nathan Henry, "Yo." That's his whole tweet.
24:22
[laughs] Matthew Mayberry, "I parlayed Gunner Henderson to steal a base and Mullins to steal a base, each separately with Scotty yesterday to win the Masters. They both stole a bag.
24:31
I now have Scotty 43 to 1 and 30 to 1 to win the Masters." I don't, I don't hate it.
24:35
It was, uh, it was, uh, Sammy P proc- uh, br- brought that up on, uh, on, on, uh, uh the Bear Bets, uh, podcast about doing like a top 10 with Scotty and parlaying it. I think that's a great idea.
24:46
So I think if this betting maneuver, people trying to in essence boost The ultimate, right? The Scotty part of it.
24:55
Like, or, but pick your, whatever your ultimate is in a, in a, in a let's say a three-leger like this one. I think this gets done more by people than we let on, right?
25:04
Like, I think this is a, a huge, like, like in- Oh... tennis tournaments. J Rod, for instance, does this all the time. He goes, "Now I have Eagle at 50 to 1," right? 'Cause he hit the first two leges of it.
25:13
So I think that's a betting behavior that we minimize. I, I, I think you're absolutely right. I think that I p- personally, I think we'd do it more ourselves if we had more of those options available to us.
25:24
[laughs] Hey, we don't know anything about it. We live in Nevada, and when we get sports betting legalized, boy is this gonna be a place.
25:29
And then Primetime, "Agreed that Augusta National is not a ketchup course, Gil, but a few too many egg salad sammiches there on a hot day and it becomes a mustard course." There you go.
25:38
Jason Weingarten joins us from another cloud of smoke in Southern California. You can follow him on Twitter @spreadapedia. Comes to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Jason, what's happening? Good morning.
25:49
The, uh, the parlay thing you mentioned with, like, Scotty and stuff- Yeah... I do that for the Super Bowl. Um, I did that- Yes... to the 49ers this last year.
25:57
Um, I don't get to do it a lot otherwise just because it's not an option most places to parlay stuff with, you know, golf futures. But you brought up an interesting point
26:09
which, uh, with these, with these parlays and everything, um, the stolen bases.
26:15
I'm seeing more and more this year of people attacking baseball through the most unconventional means, whether it's stolen base props or home run parlays or round robins.
26:26
Like, this is all stuff that didn't exist, um, you know, even two, three years ago. So- Yeah...
26:32
it's very, it's very interesting to see the different ways people are attacking things because you practically have endless options.
26:39
Like, I can sit here between now and when first pitch starts this afternoon, like the normal West Coast time- It's incredible... just going through books and looking for props, and I still won't find everything.
26:51
Um, it's, it's- It's, it's incredible. And you and I are old, and, and I say this jokingly, you and I are old enough to remember 'cause it's only, like, we forget
26:59
six years ago, like, five inning betting, first five was not everywhere. It really wasn't. Like, it, you couldn't even, like, give those out as plays because it didn't exist at every bookie.
27:13
People didn't have access to it. So that's how far we've come, obviously, with legalization, uh, and then the DraftKings of the world that have these, uh, these big menus. By the way, I've asked this question of others.
27:22
I'm not sure I've asked it of you. Does this rash of Tommy John surgeries make you not wanna bet Cy Youngs here early in the year? No. That doesn't bother me at all.
27:33
I mean, like, last week I bet 250 bucks on Shane Bieber, and I'm now out $250. Um, you know, that's gonna happen every now and then, but it happens in every sport, you know?
27:45
It, it happens in every futures market or whatever that you bet something and the guy's gonna get hurt.
27:50
So you obviously have to assume that there's a risk with the pitchers and especially the good ones, but, you know, odds are odds, and I'm happy to, uh, to kind of focus in on a couple guys. And,
28:04
you know, I think there'll still be a lot of, lot of volatility, but
28:08
I think the Cy Young market's the easiest market to, to bet because we have the Tom Tango stuff that basically tells you every week who- That's right... the winners are. That's right.
28:15
We've talked about this on this show, that the, the most tried and true predictor of ultimate Cy Young Award winners is Tom Tango's Cy Young predictor, and he listens to this show as well, and he would chime in when we would talk about it, which was awesome.
28:27
Uh, which was- So, like, when people ask me who's gonna win the Cy Young, I'm like, "Well, I could just repeat the Tom Tango numbers back to you, or you can go look at them." Yeah.
28:34
I mean, it's the- He was right last year... same thing. You know, my- Yeah. He's been right, like, the last five years. Yeah. You know, I mean, he, he pretty much, you know, you know who the top three are gonna be.
28:43
So it's just, like, you know, I, I, I don't really... I think most of the work's being done for me and for everybody else, so I, I don't know. I think Cy Young's easy to bet. Yeah, and it's a super simple formula.
28:53
We'll talk about that as the, uh, as the year goes on. It's, uh,
28:57
it's not nearly as complicated, although I would, you know, again, Blake Snell, smoke and mirrors last year, and good on everybody who had him that it kept going 'cause it sure didn't in his first start with the Giants, I'll tell you that, now that he finally drove up from San Diego to, to the Bay Area.
29:12
Uh, did you bet anything in, uh, baseball today? I did not bet anything in baseball today. I gotta go, uh, run some errands, and then I got Masters prep stuff- All right... to do the rest of today.
29:23
Unfortunately for me, I really wish baseball season officially started after the Masters because with March Madness and, and the Masters, it's just like baseball takes a backseat with, with the, the, the day games, the cold weather games.
29:38
Like, now I am, the, the thing I am paying most attention to though is, um, the loser teams seem to be losing a lot quicker this year. I don't- Oh, yeah... you know, one and ele- elev- one and 11 for the Marlins.
29:50
Their, their season's essentially over before it began. There's, you know, stuff with the, the manager, Skip Schumacher had a year taken off his contract. He's definitely not coming back.
30:00
It's just a question of when he leaves now. But there's, there's some teams that are just straight up disasters, and I'm kind of focusing in, you know, are, are they gonna get any better?
30:09
Are the Marlins gonna get better? Are the A's gonna get better? Are the White Sox gonna get better? Like, I don't think so. I think, you know, we have, we've identified the loser teams already this year. Yeah.
30:18
Throw the Rockies into that mix even though they've won three times as well. Um, okay. Yeah. That's always Rockies, though. Always Rockies, that's for sure. About, about the Masters,
30:27
what do you do pre-flop versus in tournament? I have a, I have a couple, uh, bets so far. Nothing, nothing really crazy. I, I did bet, uh, Phil Mickelson over Tiger Woods, just the matchup.
30:41
I think, you know, like, like, you're not gonna fool me, Tiger Woods. You, you don't have a, a viable leg. You're, you're a one-legged man out there practically in a golf tournament. Um- [laughs]...
30:52
I'll take Phil Mickelson, the actual guy who still golfs occasionally over the, the one-legged man. Um- Prove me wrong.
31:00
I've, I've been proven wrong several times in the Masters, so it wouldn't be the first, but I thought it was a cheap price. I got, I think I laid minus 120 on, uh, on Phil.
31:10
But you wait in terms of, like, you know, to win the tournament, you typically wait till the tournament starts?
31:16
Uh, I mean, I do a lot of pre-tournament golf betting, but in this case, like, like, I don't, I don't really have any significant edge on the Masters here. Uh, I, you know, like, I kinda like Jon Rahm, I kinda like DJ.
31:33
Um, I might actually bet a little bit of DJ today, but in general, like, I don't really have any, any insight on this better than anybody else.
31:43
Maybe after it tees o- it tees off, get an idea who's, who's playing well, I'll find something to bet.
31:48
But, uh, you know, I, I'm just gonna fire a couple bullets before and end up wasting money if I really bet on the Masters here. So I, I really don't have much. Okay.
31:59
Um, you have often brought up Rose Zhang on this show, on the LPGA Tour, but it's Nelly Korda who is destroying the tour. Four straight wins.
32:08
Have you been on, uh, her w- in betting, you know, in, in outrights at all, in any of these? 'Cause her, her numbers are always pretty low to begin with.
32:19
Um, but yeah, four in a row is super impressive for men, women, any- It's incredible... any sport, anything. Win four tournaments in a row.
32:26
Uh, the last one was the match play, uh, which, which I actually missed 'cause it started on Wednesday. I forgot, you know, that it was a five-day thing, so I missed that whole tournament entirely.
32:36
But no, I have not been betting her. Her numbers have never been great, but it's, it's really impressive to watch.
32:41
I've obviously been following it, and, you know, four is, you know, I, I can't recall anyone else doing that any time recently. All right. Did you have a first to 10 wins bet in baseball? Did you have any of those?
32:52
Nothing. Um, I just keep looking at adding some futures. I did bet a, uh, a futures parlay today at FanDuel. I bet Juan Soto MVP with Corbin Burnes AL Cy Young pays about 21 to 1. Um, yeah, that's a- Okay...
33:10
that's a good bet. 21 to 1 on that. Soto Burnes parlay from Jason Weingarten. Jason, a space shuttle docuseries on CNN. You'll love it. Thank you. I'll check it out. I'll talk to you guys later this week. I recommend it.
33:22
Fun week ahead. Masters, everything. Y- yes, indeed. Can't wait. Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke. I recommend it to Jason because he has a predilection for such things. We'll come back.
33:30
More Masters talk, name by name, next.
33:38
Action-packed fight card has taken over Las Vegas for UFC 300, and DraftKings Sportsbook, the official sports betting partner of UFC, is giving new customers a shot to turn five bucks into $150 instantly in bonus bets with any UFC 300 bet.
33:52
Download the app and use promo code VSIN when you sign up. That's V-S-I-N. DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside right here at, uh, Bar Canada at The D. Uh, tweets.
34:04
We got tweets of betting the book. Roger Jones, "Guys, forget about the Defensive Player of the Year. The narrative that needs to be pushed is Kelly's reputation as the cooler, William H.
34:13
Macy, so a comfortable show can take place." What is he referring to? I don't know. I don't know what that means, but, uh, it's a great movie. [laughs] I've watched it. I would watch that alone. I just read them.
34:22
Uh, it doesn't have to have an explanation. I just read. Kentucky Connection, "Nas will lose Sixth Man of the Year, and it'll be m- by more than just one vote.
34:32
All the Minnesota fan base is hyping it up, but he's not Malik." All right. Very angry is what it sounds like. So- sounds like there's no bias there at all. No, not at all.
34:40
Brad Billups, "Didn't Hootie Johnson call it the Masters tournament?" He did. [laughs] I always say that on the show when I do it. You do. I always say the tournament. Yeah, Gil said that 18 times this week. Yeah.
34:49
That's right. Oh, that's the word of the day, tournament. [laughs] Yeah. There you go. Michael Burns, "I've got Scottie at 28 to 1 and Hideki at 86 to 1 with UConn." See, there you go. Perfect example.
35:00
And then he says some stuff that I don't wanna repeat. [laughs] Chance Copperpot, "You had a guy on a little over a year ago that explained how he parlayed favorite futures. I've been trying it. It's worked out well.
35:09
I had Verstappen, the, uh, Las Vegas Aces, and the Chiefs parlay, and it put me in a great position. Uh, fun bets as well."
35:16
Chris Felika does a lot of that with the favorites, but what we were, what we were talking about was not just the champions. What we were talking about is, like, what Jason's example I think is very popular.
35:24
When on the run-up to the Super Bowl- Right... to boost, quote-unquote, your bet on the Niners or the Chiefs or whatever, people will play, like, two NBA totals that week and parlay together.
35:36
I'm not saying we do it, but it's a behavior that is very rampant. Yeah. I- I've gotten a lot of texts from friends, too.
35:43
Like, this is where it's the fine line because I think there are ways, like Michael Burns, like, I think there's some really intelligent ways to do it, right? I...
35:51
But I've also gotten texts with friends that, that have bet slips that are like, "Okay, cool. You have the next seven different championships, like, parlayed together in different fashions." Like- Yeah...
36:01
it could easily become an, a leak, too, that you don't wanna have. Last two here because it was Kevin Roth with a weather update coming up from Augusta.
36:07
Uh, this is from, uh, NH Better, "Eager to win the French, Scottie to win the Masters. As I write this, it dropped from plus 1150 to 9 to 1."
36:14
And then Jim James Sott said, "When I was going to Vegas for March Madness and I saw my plane was a 737, I thought I better not be on that plane." That goes down so Jason can- can't talk about it on ANG.
36:25
It's very dark Jason Weingarten humor is what that is. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, before we talk, uh, some more Masters, we're always thrilled to have this gentleman on the show. Uh, we were talking off air.
36:34
Typically, his big days are, like, the Friday before the NFL weekend when there's gonna be weather situations- Yeah... in, in multiple locations, but it works for the Masters as well.
36:43
From rotogrounders.com, it's our buddy Kevin Roth. How you doing, Kevin? Hey, thanks. Uh, I'm excited to come on, talk about this tournament with you guys.
36:51
Th- this tournament, yeah, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. All right, so what's the deal, Kevin, as you, uh, see it right now on the old Doppler? What do you got going at Augusta? Starts ugly, ends nice.
37:02
And when I say starts ugly, I mean I do not expect that this tournament starts when it is supposed to start. So tomorrow morning you've got this line of heavy rain and thunderstorms that should be moving through.
37:15
The good news is that the timeline on this has kind of moved up.
37:18
When I looked at it yesterday, I thought, "Man, they might get rain all day," and now I think that rain is mostly overnight and through the morning, and by the late morning or at least by noon, that rain, that storm system should be cleared out.
37:32
And so that gives us time to at least get some golfers back out there, assuming the course holds up okay. Um, a- and I do expect that we will see golf tomorrow, but I would almost guarantee a late start.
37:44
I, I cannot fathom a way where they're golfing on time- Oh, that's interesting... in that morning round. So when we're on air, it may not have started by then. But as you were saying- Yeah... Kelly, that that's more of a
37:56
you're looking for the guys in the middle then. So the guys, the guys who, would you say, Kevin, that the tee off late, there is a possibility they might not be able to finish their first round?
38:05
There is, and that's when it always gets so tricky trying to time out, uh, you know, who's gonna get the best wave, who gets the wind advantage.
38:12
Well, if there's gonna be a late start and everybody's pushed back, and now all of a sudden the times are not as cut and dry as they should be, we truly don't know.
38:21
And to that I'll add the wind conditions for the remainder of the day once golf can start, once the rain clears out, is pretty consistent.
38:30
It's 15 to 20 mile per hour sustained winds, gusts of around 30 miles per hour, maybe up to 35, and that's essentially through the remainder of the day.
38:39
So it's tough to try to say this is the edge to have, because we don't know the timing, and after the rain the weather's fairly similar. Does the wind continue into Friday at all? It does. Great question. Um, it does.
38:52
It's still pretty breezy on Friday. And again, I expect kind of a similar spot, 15 to 20 mile per hour sustained winds. Those gusts should be around 30.
39:02
And again, I don't really see a time, whether you're talking really early in the morning or really late, I don't really see a good time to avoid it. The peak winds on Friday are gonna be right around noon.
39:14
We'll say late morning into the early afternoon. But when you get the wind in that timeframe, it's just tough to try to pick a wave that doesn't have any wind impacts, 'cause everybody's gonna see it at some point.
39:25
Though i- though if I'm forced to make a handicap on all of this, it sounds like the late starters Thursday may get the worst of both ends. Maybe. Again, it's weather, right? So who knows. But it kind of sounds that way.
39:40
I, I would say so, yes. Yeah. Um, the question is, [laughs] are the late starters Thursday going to golf Thursday- That's right... or are they going to get pushed back- That's right... into Friday?
39:51
You know, it's, uh, really when you get these rain situations, it can just be really tough to try to parse out those details because the timing is inexact.
39:58
Um, for now, as I look at this, like I want there to be a weather advantage so bad, because I love it in golf when there is. [laughs] That's right.
40:05
There was a huge one last week with, with, uh, gusty winds at, at the Valero, you know, gusting over 30 miles per hour Friday afternoon. But I just don't...
40:13
I, I know weather's gonna be an issue, but I don't think that there's a way that we can play it to get the advantage from the bad weather. All right. @KevinRothWX is where you are on Twitter.
40:25
Uh, Kevin, by the way, do you bet the Masters? Do you have a pick for, for us before you leave? No, I have, uh, I, golf is not my sport. [laughs] I will tune in. If it's close on Sunday- Okay...
40:34
if it's interesting, I might catch the final round, but, uh, no, I'm more of a, a hoops and football guy. All right. Well, we appreciate it nonetheless. Thank you for that. Hey, thanks for having me on.
40:43
Uh, of course I'm gonna be keeping things updated, you mentioned on Twitter, @KevinRothWX and on RotoGrinders as well. Uh, guys, bring me back any time, any weather-related sport, I'm happy to join.
40:52
Very much appreciate that. KevinRothWX. Thank you, Kevin, um, for those... n- nice resource to go to- Yeah... as the weather, uh, as the, as the day today goes by and also in the morning.
41:01
Thought it was interesting listening la- you know, he, he brought up the Valero last week too, and was listening to a couple of former players talk about, talk about the wind and how it affects things.
41:10
And a- and Kevin we've had on so many times before. Did a great, always done a great job of, of kind of getting some numbers in my head, right? Of at what l- at what number does it start to affect a football, right?
41:20
Right. For kickers and everything, and that was always kind of over 15 mile an hour. Over 15 miles per hour. And what he always said for, you know, golf ball weighs less, less wind, right?
41:28
So he would always kind of say over 10 mile an hour you gotta be on the lookout for. Listening to some of the former players, though, talk about it is interesting, because it, with golf, they're all about the gusts.
41:39
They're like, as l- as long as there's consistent wind, every golfer can adjust for that. They're used to it. They know how to adjust for it.
41:47
But when you get these rapid gusts that spike up, that's when it becomes really difficult, you know, for the golfers to figure out exactly what, what, you know, what club to grab, what type of shot to hit, uh, all that kind of stuff.
41:59
So we don't know if this is our last two minutes before the tournament starts based on what he just said with the weather, but if it is, I just wanna close with
42:07
outside of Rory, I'm trying to think of who, who, which are the names that elicit the most groans from people when we mention, "Hey, this person has a good- Xander Schauffele.
42:14
So Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau, I would say. Finau you don't have any bets on. I have a matchup. I did put him- A matchup bet... in a matchup over... why can I not even remember this? Fleetwood.
42:27
Here's my real question, and this is anecdotal. But we have a lot of folks, including the great Wes Reynolds, who like Xander here. But we've had more than Wes say that.
42:35
Why is everybody seemingly coalescing around Xander right now? Uh, I mean, I think that's, that's pretty easy to explain. But you have a lot of the...
42:45
is, probably brought this up yesterday a little bit more, but okay, if you, if you feel like there's a lot of uncertainty with LIV golfers, well, the PGA Tour golfers, a lot of the guys that you would've expect to be the top-of-the-line guys heading into this event, a lot of them have had some up-and-down seasons.
43:00
And I'm talking about the Patrick Cantlays, the Max Homas, the Collin Morikawas, these guys that are massive names on tour that really haven't put together a lot of great tournaments heading into, into The Masters.
43:12
And then you go and look at what guys like Hideki have done, what, what Xander Schauffele, uh, has done this season, and, and in the history at The Masters.
43:22
I mean, you're six top 10s in eight events this year for Xander Schauffele. He's T10, T3, T17, and T2 in four of, four of his last five Masters. T2 in 2019. Yeah.
43:36
So I, I mean, when you're going what, what is his course history? What has he done recently? I- it's Scottie Scheffler and then it's Xander Schauffele on the PGA Tour.
43:44
Yeah, except one guy has a lot of ones, and the other guy doesn't. Yes, that's the big difference. [upbeat music] I just found it interesting that there was a lot of Schauffele love this week.
43:54
Oh, it, it, it shocked me here in town with what, what I saw numbers kind of reopen up Sunday, Monday at on Nationwide Books, and then how they got hammered here in Vegas, it wa- it, it was shocking.
44:06
Word of the day, tournament. Tournament. Tournament. We've done all we can do. GoJoe and Golick are next in Joy from VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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