Search
Login
Sign Up
Apr 10, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 10, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 10, 2025
00:00
33:51
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
0:21
Oh, is this man happy that this tournament has started. Let's go. [laughs] Play some golf, Gil. Oh. We're done talking about it. Let's settle it on the course. We done started, man. Uh, on the show today, Zach and Crack.
0:32
Unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger. Uh, we thought he might be at Augusta. He is taking a flight to Augusta, not direct, but you know what I mean, headed towards Augusta right after the show today.
0:42
So he's in studio with us. Unscripted with the Crack Man. Zach Cohen, our VSiN senior editor on, uh, tennis and the National Basketball Association. How about the Warriors losing last night to the Spurs? Yeah.
0:53
And all- 17-and-a-half point favorites... and all of a sudden find themselves in a play-in. What the, what the? I mean, that is the Western Conference standings right now. Every one of these games is a big deal.
1:04
What the what was that? Are we sure Estamos Seguros? It's coming up a little later on in the show. We'll talk NFL draft bets as well.
1:11
Um, before we get to the Masters leaderboard, let me just say this, baseball yesterday was not fun because we, uh, we lose the, first of all, our first under in Sac Town, uh, two to one, Padres- Mm-hmm... beat the A's.
1:23
Padres had all kinds of chances early in this game. I think they were what? Two of 14 with runners in scoring in, uh, with runners in scoring position, so just couldn't cash in on opportunities.
1:32
But great p- uh, pitching performance by Vasquez for the Padres, two to one. So way under the total yesterday. We finally, uh, hit the, uh, road bump there.
1:40
And then in that Padres win, the Mets had already lost, so our ro- s- so our race to 10 was already eliminated because the Cubs play the Dodgers tomorrow. So no matter what, with the Mets loss yesterday, we were done.
1:54
But I guess there's some strange solace in the fact that we couldn't have gotten past yesterday anyway.
1:59
Uh, the Padres and Dodgers both win, and so if you had a Dodgers or Padres ticket for race to 10, you are dead heated. Mazel tov to you. Congratulations.
2:08
Dodgers are a dead heat race to 10, and they're in third place in the NL West. What a trick they pulled off.
2:13
Man, there is, uh, uh, once it's happened to you multiple times though, even when you win and you get dead heated, there's just this meh feeling. I have, uh, it, it really is true. It really is.
2:23
Like, you are not exaggerating that. The, the dead heat is so punitive. Like, the dead heat, again, is not a, is not a, oh, you get half the, the s- the, the money between two teams, right?
2:33
It is not you, you get a third if it's a three-way tie. It is that minus your initial stake, um, with the math on some of these. So it, it's, it, it ends up being a, exactly that reaction that you, that you said- Yeah...
2:46
which is like, "Oh, cool. We won." Cool. Yeah. Cool. It's like a push, like almost. Sweet. Kind of, yeah. But anyway, congratulations to, uh, Padres and Dodgers folks nonetheless. To golf.
2:56
Augusta, first round of the 89th Masters, a tradition unlike any other, and we'll be updating the, uh, the scoreboard, the leaderboard I should say, each and, uh, you know, all through the morning.
3:05
And let me just say this also. Please, it is early. It is so early. [laughs] And we've already, we've already had some folks, uh, what was it Kelly said? It was like, "The oldies golf experts, like through one hole.
3:16
They thought this guy was gonna win." [laughs] I wa- I walked in and saw, saw a tweet come across- [laughs]... and we were like, and I, I know they tweeted, me and a couple other people, who didn't bet Kevin Yu.
3:25
I have bet him multiple times this year, didn't bet him. I walk in though, and I'm like, they're like, "Everybody tipping Kevin Yu this week. What are they talking about?"
3:31
I'm like, "Man, we're, how bad did Kevin Yu do in his first couple holes? Pull up the leaderboard. One over through one." I'm like, "All right. Let's, uh, let's maybe calm down a little bit."
3:38
It's a long tournament, folks. Well- Kevin Yu is two over though through eight now. Uh, what's that again? He is two over through eight now. Who is two over through eight? Kevin Yu. Kevin Yu is two over through eight.
3:48
Why do you bring him up specifically? Because, uh- Oh, that's who the guy was talking about... because he was tweeted about, yeah. Yeah. Um, we have a, uh, a tie, two under. Again, early. This is like, uh, what?
3:57
The first part of the first quarter of a football game. Um, you have Zach Johnson who's two under. Zach Johnson won the, uh, won the Masters back in 2007, a two-stroke winner over Retief Goosen back then 18 years ago.
4:10
Zach is, uh, two under. He is tied with Kirk Kirk, uh, who is two under as well. Uh, we have an amateur, Noah Kent, who is also two under. Um, by the way, Zach Johnson and Kirk two under through s- through, what is it?
4:24
Uh, through six holes. Kent two under through five. Aaron Rai in his Masters debut. Is that right, Aaron Rai in his Masters debut? Yeah, Aaron Rai Masters d- debut, yep.
4:33
Through four, is, uh, through four holes is two under. Trying to become, what is that Masters, uh, comment made every year? The last debutant- Mm-hmm... to win a Masters. Uh, Fuzzy Zeller back in 1979.
4:45
And, um, let's see. Also, uh, you got, uh, well, through three holes, Brian Harman is now two under as well. What if Brian Harman just never loses again, Gil? What if he wins every golf tournament- That's right...
4:57
for the rest of his career? He has a streak of one right now, correct? Yep. Yep. Um, and then just now, uh, Nicolai, uh, how do we pronounce that? Højgaard. Højgaard is- Check out this round...
5:06
the Dane, is, uh, he's two under through eight, but as Kelly is alluding to, he was three over through two, and has birdied four of the next five holes to get to two under, so he's all over the place.
5:20
Five of his n- five of his next six he birdied. That's where he's through eight right now to, yeah, two under through eight. One, two, three, you're right. Five of his next six. Pardon me. That's an insane round.
5:30
After- Another debutant... three over through two, and then two under now through eight. There you go. You're absolutely right. Um- Chris Kirk and Harman are interesting. Those are good starts for those guys.
5:39
I mean, look, they got, they got the game to c- at least to get in the mix here.
5:42
I'm more fascinated by the folks who are, some of the folks who are one be- or one back at one under, including Bernard Langer, who is sticking it to Kelly. He's like, "Achtung, Bidlin." And you know what?
5:52
Joe Pete has just texted me too. He's, he's tied currently with old Steven Yeager. It's not like, uh, it's not like he, there's a six-stroke separation. It's okay.
6:00
We just want Bernard to give you a sweat That's all we want. No, just talk- 'Cause you're so rude to him... Chris Hartman's just stopped by and said hi, uh, uh, tweets into the show all the time.
6:08
Oh, that was Chris Hartman? Yeah, it was Chris Hartman. I'll take- Oh, I walked by you guys. Yeah I didn't think, I didn't know that was him. He brought me super glue for, for my cracked fingers. Oh, man.
6:14
Uh, it was a very nice, uh, gesture of him. I'm sorry, Chris Hartman. Um- Corey Conners, your boy, is one back. That's right. Yeah, he's one back.
6:20
But yeah, we were talking about it, and he was, he was laughing about that bet.
6:23
And I was like, "Yeah, honestly, I don't even know why I made it," because it's gonna be so, it's gonna be the bet I check in on the most over the first, like, two days that, a- and you're like, am I really sweating out Steven Yeager versus Bernard Langer in something like that?
6:36
[laughs] There's bigger things to worry and care about in this tournament. Oh, don't lie. That's what you're fixated on. I mean, like, that's where your money's at is where you're gonna care the most.
6:44
I, uh, I added last night, remember, I only had Sepp Straka to win the whole thing and Sepp Straka top 10 going into yesterday. I did add Rory to win it at plus 750. Let's go.
6:55
I did add Rory to win at plus 750, and the only other thing I added was Min Woo Lee to be a first round leader, and when I looked up, when I walked into Circa this morning, his first, uh, shot was in the woods.
7:07
Not really in the woods, but behind a tree or two, so I don't know where he ended up after the first hole. Um, oh, he, he bogeyed it. So Min Woo Lee, uh, one over after one three back, early stages of the Masters.
7:20
Did you add anything between yesterday and today? No, I don't think so. Okay. I, I think everything by the time we did the show yesterday, I had made every single bet, and I didn't add.
7:29
I did one last look around last night, and man, there's so many.
7:34
[laughs] Like, this is, I don't, I don't even wanna know what my betting card would look like if I was on the East Coast and had some of these other books available.
7:40
But even MGM and Caesars just continuing to post new markets leading up to the event. So I did do the, like, too long on the couch last night scrolling through markets where I'm like- Yeah... "Ooh, that's interesting.
7:52
That's interesting." But I'm like, "Kelly, you're good. You got enough." You got enough. "You got enough." And there's, and there's plenty of time to add more tomorrow or the next day- Yeah, exactly... as well.
8:00
Um, how many media spots did you do the last, uh, 24 hours, including your debut on By The Books this morning with Dave Ross and Jensen Lewis? Uh, five others in the last 24 hours. Oh, my God. Yeah.
8:11
What was, what was interesting about what you said, though, is that we find this in betting all the time, is that when you are asked to do things in the non-betting space necessarily, the different levels of knowledge you were saying.
8:24
Yeah, and I, I just thought of a, a couple of the conversations I had was it, like, it's tough. I understand.
8:28
Anybody who loves golf, whether you're a bettor or not, when you hear someone's betting Rory McIlroy to win the Masters, of course from us doing media for years, that is the number one thing you wanna latch onto.
8:40
But you're, you're kinda sitting there like, I'm like, "Okay, but you bring me on as a betting, like, a more of a betting expert." Like, you- They just wanna talk about Rory.
8:47
Right, like you guys just wanna talk about Rory.
8:49
[laughs] And I understand why, but, like, you bring me on because we're wanna talk about how to make money in this event, and that's just one very, very small piece of the pie this week.
8:57
You should just scream it on your way out, just be like, "That's not what I really care about." [laughs] There was one I did. There you go.
9:01
I was like, "By the way, top 20s that I really like this week, Sepp Straka, Robert McIntyre, Corey Conners." Uh, back to the basketball thing for a second here 'cause we got tons of guests- Yeah...
9:09
and we got, uh, we gotta squeeze it all in. But I'm just curious, do, so the Warriors fall to seven. Clippers win last night. Um, Lakers win last night, uh, in, in Luka's, uh, revenge game back in Dallas. That was crazy.
9:26
Game was crazy. Scores 31 in the first half, 45 for the game. Lakers win by 15. Uh, but the Spurs beat the Warriors by three. Warriors, as you've said, were 17 and a half point favorites. The Warriors fall to seven.
9:37
By the way, the Nuggets win their debut post Michael Malone. [laughs] See what I did there? You're the first one I've heard it from, Gil. First one. Um, Clippers, Clippers crush the Rockets by 17.
9:49
I mean, that's, uh, significant, too. But do the Warriors, now I'm not gonna say do they care, 'cause obviously they do. They gotta play extra games- Right... if they end up at seven. But would they hate a 7-2?
10:00
Oh, not at all. That's the thing about that, right? Yeah. 'Cause then they get the Rockets, and if you b- basketball hardos are so skeptical of the Rockets, that ain't a bad thing.
10:12
So we've had this conversation in years past, though. This is the, yes, if, if that's how it ends up, I, I think the Warriors will be perfectly content with that.
10:20
The problem is, and I, I, this is where we had all the questions about do, do we like the play-in tournament? Do we like the in-season tournament? This is where, like, the play-in stuff's great, right?
10:31
Because yeah, that seed would be awesome, and they'd be happy with it. But you can't.
10:35
Like, you wanna do everything possible to stay out of that play-in tournament 'cause you don't wanna let two basketball games decide your entire playoff.
10:43
I'm just always fascinated by how, again, we as, and this is in multiple sports, not just basketball, how we as bettors, and as sports fans, by the way, just beyond betting, we s- we often tend to focus on seeding.
10:55
And I always wonder, do these teams, are they playing chess while we're playing checkers, or do they not care at all? Um, and I do wonder with the Warriors what their preference would be.
11:06
And by the way, if you finish seven, you still gotta beat the Timberwolves in a 7-8 to get to seven. But that's what I'm talking about. Yeah. That's what's so great about the play-in term- Yeah... 'cause you can't- No...
11:14
w- however much you wanna think about different stuff, there's a, there's a line in the sand at the six seed, right? I, I'm- You need to finish top six... I'm not suggesting they wanted to lose to the Spurs at all.
11:24
But what I am suggesting is this morning they're like, "Eh, you know, maybe not the worst thing in the world." That's what makes it all very interesting.
11:31
Two games left in the NBA season for, uh, almost all the teams that are still involved. We'll come back, uh, NFL draft positional stuff, and we'll update the, uh, Masters leaderboard throughout the morning.
11:44
It's the Numbers Game at Vsiz, the sports betting network.
11:46
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Back on the numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada.
12:06
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Uh, do not forget, by the way, about vsin.com. Here we are prattling on, Kelly, about this, that, and the other thing, and, uh, vsin.com just lives.
12:18
Check it out, Greg Peterson's MLB picks, Steve Macaden's Food City 500 NASCAR simulation. I know you're all about that. Food City 500 NASCAR simulation?
12:27
Uh, I'm gonna go with the Matt Brown line of somebody with a last name starting with B will win. Today's Keeneland horse racing picks.
12:35
Coming up today, Masters round one recap, round two best bets, Zach Cohen's NBA best bets, and Jonathan Davis's NHL picks, all that at vsin.com.
12:43
If you go to vsin.com/subscribe, you'll get the summer special for full access until August 1st for only $59, $59. Vsin.com/subscribe. Check it out.
12:54
We at tweets @betonthebook always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody.
12:58
Dan Groeschel, "For those in v- interested in knowing, the White Sox losing streak reaching seven yesterday after having the tying run pull a hammy rounding third to make the final out of the game yesterday.
13:08
Some of us would not be upset to see another Cleveland win today." He sounds like a guy who may have a White Sox longest losing streak over. S- I did see that, uh, play [laughs] that pulls the hammy. Oh, man.
13:19
That's- Talk about, we were talking about the Masters this morning, not to overreact. That's when, when the White Sox won a couple games early, people were like, "Ah, maybe they're really good this year." No, not quite.
13:28
Uh, Jason H11, "Yo. Well, Kelly, I'm on the East Coast, and I was doing just what you said. The new markets popping up had me to the point where I had to lock up my phone and iPad. #IThinkIBetOnEveryone."
13:40
Sorry, I had- [laughs]... had to sort of navigate that. Uh, and New Jersey/New York GV, "Not a fan of the, uh, for the play-in for the NBA, however, and I'm sure Paul Carr will attest to this.
13:49
With the new Champions League format, the incentive of getting the sixth seed is more just avoiding the jeopardy of two games potentially going wrong than any advantage with who you face round one."
13:57
Oh, there's no question about it. I'm not suggesting anything else. Absolutely. I mean, the, the biggest advantage in any playoff, we say this in the NFL, is not having to play a game. Yeah. Right?
14:05
That's why the number one seed means so much. I think when they first rolled that out, though, Gil, I think there was... Uh, I, I don't wanna speak for anybody else.
14:12
For me, I thought there was gonna be a lot of excitement with the, "Okay, give the ch- uh, give a chance to that, the eight, nine, 10 seed teams that, maybe a team that was out of it, to get a chance if they catch, uh, maybe they get hot late in the season.
14:26
Give them a real chance to make the playoffs and see what they can do."
14:29
But no, right away it's just been the, it's been more of the top of the standings trying to avoid, at the end of the season, falling into that range. Um, cannot recommend the Masters app enough this morning.
14:40
It's, like, the best app ever. Best app ever, uh, for leaderboard and for, uh, for other things as well. What, what is the TV coverage like before ESPN goes on air today? Uh, ESPN plus multiple, um, feeds going on there.
14:54
And that is annoying as all get out, isn't it? Yeah, I think you've got, uh... Well, the one that gets tricky is they try to name each one, but then, like- Oh, right...
15:00
when it's really early, they just start the main feed basically. And so, like, I think it's holes four, five, and six, you go to that feed right now, and it just has the whole, the whole main feed going. Hmm.
15:10
But, like, in two hours or three hours it's gonna be, like, four different feeds you can look at. Yaeger, birdie. Yaeger, two under also now, won a stroke. Crushing it. I heard of Bernard Langer.
15:19
Where do I cash my ticket, Gil? It's over. Cash out option available. [laughs] Um, okay, uh, NFL draft. This month, once the Masters clear, it's kind of all about this. Um, I have made one bet.
15:33
I have bet Travis Hunter to be the second overall pick at minus 135. You have made multiple bets so far on this. I have. Yes, I have. Yes. Um, let's see. I've got a entire $30 on Cam Ward to go number one at minus 190.
15:45
Oh, you should be making a lot of money on that. You want security out of the building on that one, Cash? Uh, please, yes, please. Okay. Please, I'm scared to, scared to cash that one. Uh, let's see.
15:52
I do have a long shot on Jaxson Dart to go second overall at 80 to 1. See if that holds up. Second overall, wow, okay. Yeah. Uh-huh. Uh, and then the more realistic bets, how about that?
16:00
Ted McMillan under 18 and a half, uh, for his draft position at minus 190. Um, we're gonna talk about, uh, a draft position with Matthew Cohen. Yes, yes we are. I'm like, all right, 'cause this is interesting.
16:11
You're Ted Aroa and McMillan- Yeah... it gets a little interesting here. Yeah. Uh, I'm with, I'm with my man Falica. I went Ashton Jeanty over nine and a half, which you can get a much better price on now.
16:21
I just think some of these teams in the top 10, that they, they're too many weaknesses across the board to be addressing running back. It's nothing against Ashton Jeanty, just how many holes are on some of these rosters.
16:32
I'm a little... I wouldn't be surprised, uh, if he drops a little bit. I don't think, I don't think he's gonna fall far.
16:38
Still think you're gonna get a two running backs in that first round, but I, I think I'd, I'd be a little surprised if he goes top 10. I could be dead wrong. I didn't bet that one too, too heavily.
16:47
Um, and then the position totals, I did load up on these. Obviously had to at the prices that I paid, but running backs under two and a half. Uh, only think it's Hampton and, uh, Jeanty that go in the first round.
16:57
And quarterbacks over two and a half, and feeling more and more confident about that one, Gil.
17:02
I mean, I would probably bet it again at current price, but I'm, uh, I'm, that is my biggest position, uh, so far is the quarterbacks over two and a half laying three, minus 300.
17:10
So Mel Kiper put out his, uh, mock draft, uh, like 26.0 yesterday. [laughs] I think it's four. Something like that. But yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Feels like it, yeah. [laughs] Oh, it's t- it's four only? Okay.
17:20
Um, and, and again, it's one guy who does a mock draft. There's obviously plenty. You may not prefer Mel Kiper over some others, um, perhaps Daniel Jeremiah is your favorite, whatever the case may be.
17:31
Uh, Kiper came out with it yesterday, and we'll just use it as a barometer for some of these positional plays. Mason Graham.
17:37
Mason Graham's number, uh, position number is, uh, in terms of, uh, his positional draft number, over, under five and a half.
17:45
Uh, Mason Graham, the under five and a half is juiced at minus 155, and the reason that the under is juiced is that picking fifth is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
17:57
Um, and Mason Graham, the, uh, Michigan defensive tackle is Is someone who they apparently covet, and so that's why his position is five and a half. The under's five and a half, uh, again juiced at minus 155.
18:10
It feels like, and when the question comes up, and we will ask this question many times of many draftniks here between now and the actual NFL draft later this month, you know, what's the biggest team to player match beyond Tennessee taking Cam Ward at one?
18:27
And it might be Jacksonville and Mason Graham at five. So I understand why the under is juiced at minus 155. These are a little crazy. I think always, always with these compare.
18:36
So, so, uh, you know, we were talking about the, you and I were talking about this with a couple other ones yesterday, but compare, if you're looking to play an under there, com- uh, compare it to what the top five, odds to go top five are.
18:49
Correct. Yes. Or, or if you think it's going to be Jacksonville exactly, right, you go fifth overall pick. So- So many ways to bet these things and try to figure out what maximizes your bang for your buck. Absolutely.
19:00
Yeah, absolutely. Right now number five, he's minus 125. There you go. So you're getting 30 bu- 30 cents better if you, if that's where you think he's gonna go.
19:07
Obviously they're building in 30 cents extra 'cause he could get drafted before that. But something to keep in mind, Gil, I'm just, I'm scrolling down. DraftKings has player exact pick, right?
19:18
So number one pick, number two, all the way through seven. There's a odds-on favorite in every single one of these now. Shedeur Sanders. We'll just do the draft positions for giggles for this, for our purposes here.
19:30
These are all numbers according to DraftKings. Uh, Shedeur Sanders. Mel Kiper, so again, a Graham number five to Jacksonville per Mel Kiper's last mock.
19:40
Shedeur Sanders, the often talked about and discussed and, and really a big variance in where folks thinks he's getting, folks think he's getting drafted. Mel Kiper's last mock, he goes ninth to New Orleans.
19:54
His draft position at DraftKings is eight and a half with the over, meaning again, you have to do a little, uh, word puzzle with over and unders. Eight, over eight and a half means nine or beyond. Yes.
20:06
[laughs] Just, just to make sure if there's no, there's no confusion there, 'cause sometimes it gets a little dicey in people's heads. So Shedeur over eight and a half is now minus 200.
20:15
Remember, he up until like a couple weeks ago, he was mocked to go top three. Also caught a report from Jordan Schultz yesterday saying Shedeur Sanders still in play for the Browns at number two.
20:25
However, quote, "Travis Hunter, Travis Hunter seems to be the favorite." Um- Which I know you like to hear. Yes. There's a, and there's a bunch of these that are really interesting.
20:32
So by the way, under eight and a half for Shedeur would be plus 160, but again, Mel Kiper had him ninth to New Orleans.
20:38
Ashton Jeanty, the aforementioned Ashton Jeanty, uh, you and Falica have him going over nine and a half. Right now over nine and a half is, is plus 200, two to one. Much better price than I get.
20:49
Um, Ashton Jeanty mocked by Kiper in his latest to still go number six to the Raiders. Yeah. Um- And he is, so if, I brought that up before, number six overall, Ashton Jeanty minus 150.
21:04
Tyler Warren, tight end, uh, wearing John Riggins number 44 in tribute. His draft position is nine and a half. The over, meaning 10 and beyond, is minus 160.
21:15
Kiper had him going exactly 10th to the Chicago Bears at number 10. Hmm. Makes sense. Okay. Matthew Golden.
21:23
Now here's where the Tetairoa McMillan stuff becomes interesting, 'cause you have him as number one wide receiver, and you laid a lot of juice on that. No, no, no. I played draft position.
21:31
Oh, draft position under 19 and a half. Correct, yeah. Oh, pardon me. Okay. But if you compare- Yes... to the number one wide receiver odds. Well, Matthew Golden's draft position is 17 and a half.
21:41
Over 17 and a half is minus 165. Kiper has him going 16th to Arizona ahead of McMillan, who he doesn't have going till I think past 20. Well, what does he know? What does he know?
21:54
I'm just telling you- [laughs] I'm kidding. I'm kidding... take it for what it's worth. It's one person, right? Colston Loveland from Michigan, over 19 and a half is plus 140.
22:01
The under is juiced at minus 175, and sure enough, Kiper has him going 14th to Indianapolis. Wow. Heard a, heard a lot of love for Colston Loveland. I know. And, and directly to the Colts.
22:13
Jackson Dart's position is 24 and a half, the under heavily juiced at minus 210.
22:19
Kiper doesn't have him going until 26 to the Rams, which mean the over plus 165 would indicate value if you are to go with Kiper's latest instinct. And then finally, Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State, the wideout.
22:33
Draft position's at 29 and a half, the under slightly juiced at minus 140. Kiper does not have him going till the second round. Yeah, I think he's- 36. 36 to Jacksonville.
22:43
So the over would have a little value there as well. Interesting to look at anyway. We'll come back. Zach Cohen, tennis in the NBA next on a Numbers Game at VSiN.
22:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:01
Get NBA prop analysis at Unabated, including expert profitable player props projections for every game real time. Say that three times fast. Ready, Keller? Expert profitable player props projections.
23:12
I, I'm not even gonna try. For every game real time.
23:15
NBA news regularly first to release breaking news that helps bettors find edges on markets, sit/start projection scenarios to see how a player's status will impact the projections of their teammates, and access to Unabated's expert team.
23:27
See how we cleverly like waited to tell you what it was? Unabated is what we're talking about, through their Discord channels and regular interactive live streams. Go to unabated.com/vsin for subscription info.
23:38
That's unabated.com/vsin. I cannot say enough about their, uh, variety and, uh, strength of their tools over there at Unabated. Everything. Yeah. Captain Jag, Rufus, all them. All them dudes. Thomas Viola. Thomas Viola.
23:55
Love old Tommy. Haven't seen him in forever. Great guy. Where you been, Tommy? Great guy. Great guy. Yeah. Love them all. Um, okay.
24:03
Let us, uh, let us discuss multiple sports with, uh, the great Zach Cohen, VSiN senior editor. And when I say multiple sports, um, I will start hesitantly with golf 'cause I'm not even sure that he has any golf bets.
24:13
Zach joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @BettingOnX. Did you make any Masters bets, sir?
24:20
Yeah, I, I took, I think I told you at the, uh, before the show, I took Sepp Straka at 70 to 1. I do not follow much golf. I watch it a little bit. I, I can't give you much analysis.
24:29
I just saw a lot of people smarter than me saying that Straka was a great value, so I jumped on it to have a little something for the Masters, and, and I'm in a few Masters pools too, but, you know, just for fun.
24:39
Okay, so just Sepp Straka. Uh, tennis, Monte Carlo, this is a 1,000. Again, there's the Slams, and then it goes to 1,000, so it's a big tournament in Monte Carlo, in what you describe [laughs] as like playing in sand.
24:51
Uh, did you see, before we get to any of your picks, did you see the point between Carlitos Alcaraz and Alejandro Tabilo this morning? Might have been the- No... greatest point I've seen all year.
25:03
No, I thought you were gonna ask me about the Berrettini and Zverev point, which was also unbelievable, a 48-shot rally. There's been some good stuff at this tournament so far.
25:11
Oh, this, this rally had about four shots where you're like, "There's no chance he's getting to it." It was, but it's c- but it's clay, right? It's amazing. Yep. Um, okay, what did you end up on today?
25:21
Uh, so the only thing I have left is a parlay with, uh, Tsitsipas to beat Nuno Borges and Alejandro Tabilo plus one and a half sets against Grigor Dimitrov.
25:30
Uh, I ended up winning on Arthur Fils this morning, and I lost a, a parlay with Ruud and Tsitsipas where, man, I was just watching that Ruud match, and he completely outplayed Alexei Popyrin for, like, 85% of that match but just lost some of the big points in, you know, typical Casper Ruud fashion, where he, he looked so good and then just kind of unraveled a little bit.
25:50
Yeah, Alcaraz was playing Cerundolo, pardon me, earlier. So it's a- Yeah... it's a Tsitsipas and who, uh, parlay? Tsitsipas, uh, to win against Borges and then Tabilo to win a set against Dimitrov. Gotcha. Okay.
26:03
Um, that's in Monte Carlo. To- Yeah... the National Basketball Association, only four days left in the NBA regular season, only two or three games left per team depending on what that team is.
26:13
Um, do you have any plays today? Yeah, I have a few. I have the Pistons minus three and a half against the Knicks. Uh, this is a play that really just has a lot to do with the injury report.
26:23
Uh, New York will be playing without OG Anunoby and Josh Hart tonight. Those are two players that I don't really think they can miss.
26:29
I, I think Brunson probably goes off in this game and maybe the same for Towns, though I do think he might pick up some early fouls and really get into trouble. But you're missing Anunoby, and you're missing Hart.
26:38
Those are two of your best defenders.
26:40
It's not a team that I really believe in defensively to begin with, and the Pistons coming off a bad loss to the Kings at home, I think they're gonna end up winning this game and winning it somewhat comfortably.
26:49
All right. Was there any more? You said, I thought you said you had three. Did you have three? Uh, I have two. Okay.
26:54
I, I have, uh, yes, the other one that I have is, uh, Timberwolves minus one and a half against the Grizzlies, and, and this is a similar situation where, uh, we just saw Memphis lose Jalen Wells on a play that you might have saw- Yeah...
27:04
I was very angry about on Twitter.
27:06
Uh, I, I think that Wells is a very good defensive player, uh, has been one of the best rookies in the class this year, and, you know, you're, this is a team that's already missing Brandon Clarke for the rest of the season, has slipped defensively in the second half of the season.
27:19
I'm not sure they can afford to lose him, but I think Minnesota's another team, like I said after Detroit, they, th- this is a team that needs to get back in the win column, has an opportunity to move up quite a bit in the Western Conference standings with every win the rest of the season.
27:31
So I think that the Timberwolves are the stronger team, and they find a way to get it done. Okay. So we are this close, right?
27:37
This close, meaning no space in between those two words, to the end of the NBA regular season, which means play-ins begin next week. Towards the end of next week, it's the actual playoffs.
27:47
Um, usually we don't have a lot of value in the futures markets. You see it differently this time.
27:55
Yeah, I, I think this has been a really strange year, and the, uh, the bunching up that we have in the Western Conference means that we're going to have a lot of uncertainty in terms of playoff match-ups.
28:04
With one team, I don't really care.
28:05
With the Clippers at 17 to 1 to win the West, 50 to 1 to win the NBA title, if they have to face OKC in round two, I mean, I'd rather them not, but I do think they could win that series.
28:15
I think if you look back to March 1st and on, there's three teams in the NBA that have a net rating of plus 12 or better, uh, in terms of efficiency differential over at Cleaning the Glass.
28:25
That's Boston, that's Oklahoma City, and that's Los Angeles. This Clippers team has been unbelievable, uh, on both ends of the floor. I believe they're third in both offensive and defensive efficiency in that span.
28:36
Uh, Kawhi Leonard is healthy.
28:38
James Harden is playing unbelievable, and I think that, like I said a few times on a few different shows, I think they have the best defensive center in the league right now in Ivica Zubac, and obviously this is a team with a lot of depth, a really good X's and O's coach, and a, a strong home court advantage when they do play at home.
28:53
So I think the Clippers can beat anyone. It's just a matter of betting on, you know, Kawhi Leonard's health, which can go at any moment, but he has looked very good for the last few weeks.
29:02
And we have a lot of, you know, look, and justifiably so, right?
29:05
JVT calls the Western Conference playoffs the, uh, the Thunder Invitational famously, and we have a lot of others, uh, including my friend Kelly Billings here, who, who was very bullish on the Thunder and, and, and everyone understands why.
29:16
But to your point, when they did lose in the fashion that they lost to the Lakers and the Rockets this past week, was that enough for anybody who had any anti-Thunder sentiment or, or pro any other team sentiment to just sort of nod their head and be like, "See, there it is.
29:32
That's what they're also capable of. I knew it was coming at some point." And if they play like that, like they did in those two games, forget the, the Western Conference. They could be bounced early.
29:43
Yeah, and I forget the exact stat that I sent to Kelly and JBT the other day, but I think they're something like 12 and 9 against some of the best Western Conference teams with size.
29:52
So I, I think that they can struggle in the right match-ups. A lot of the, you know, the, the lack of belief I have in the Thunder is just kinda price related.
30:00
Like, I do think they are the best team in the Western Conference, but I, I don't think they should be priced the way that they are.
30:05
I think that we saw last season when they faced the Mavericks, Shailen Williams and Chet Holmgren both disappeared a bit.
30:11
And obviously this is a much better team than it was last, uh, last year with Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso in the mix.
30:17
I just don't think that they are unbeatable, and I think that the Clippers especially are playing right on the level of the top teams in the league. Yeah. So I thought that was an insane value at 17 to 1 to win the West.
30:27
I also th- I also think it's a good value at 50 to 1 to win the, uh, the All title. I can feel Kelly seething a little bit at my, uh, my anti-Thunder stuff. That, and he's like, "That's poppycock. That's malarkey.
30:37
It's hogwash." I agree with everything with the Clippers, though. Okay. [laughs] There you go. What was the other future that you, uh, had your eye on?
30:44
I, I think the one that I like is Pacers 32 to 1 to win the Eastern Conference, which is- Oh, wow... something I've kinda been saying all season long.
30:51
Uh, I wrote it, uh, I think it was two months ago that I took the Pacers to win the, the East also.
30:56
But it, it's not necessarily a play that I think is going to win, but I do think there's a decent chance that they end up in the Eastern Conference finals just based on match-ups.
31:05
Like, they really should win if they face Milwaukee in the first round. I don't really see them losing.
31:10
And then you get Cleveland in the second round, and I think if you wanted to get a team, uh, between Cleveland and Boston, you'd rather it be the Cavaliers just because we have not seen them do it in the post-season yet.
31:20
And for as good as Kenny Atkinson has been with this team, as much as he has changed the offense, it's largely the same team that we saw last season. And I think that this Pacers team is really deep.
31:30
Uh, Tyrese Haliburton is playing great, and Rick Carlisle is a really good X's and O's coach in the post-season.
31:36
So I wouldn't be surprised if they make the Eastern Conference finals, and then you're sitting there with a plus 3,200 that you can hedge if they face Boston.
31:43
Now that, that preempts my question which is, okay, if I came to you from the future and said neither the Cavaliers or Celtics wins the East, who does? I guess there's your answer with the Pacers.
31:52
Um, Pacers, Clippers NBA finals match-up anyone? What would that pay? Oh, man. Check it. I have no idea. [laughs] Forget the exact, just the match-up itself.
32:01
That must be, I mean, that ma- must be great odds on something like that if you're, if we're to follow, uh, Zach's advice there. Um, the Warriors losing yesterday, falling to seventh.
32:10
Who knows if it will hold through the weekend. Maybe they climb back up to sixth. It doesn't take much here 'cause there's tiebreakers involved. Uh, but if they end up seven,
32:19
um, I sort of threw this out with Kelly earlier, okay, then they get the T Wolves let's say in a seven, eight. Oh, boy. Um, on the one hand you don't wanna play these extra games obviously.
32:31
On the other hand, as I said, if they win that they get the Rockets. Not the worst thing in the world or, or, or bad.
32:38
No, I, I, I think you really wanna be the seven seed this year, and I'm not saying that to try to disrespect the Rockets.
32:43
I think Houston is unbelievable in a lotta different ways, like defensively that team can play with anyone. I love the way Eme Iudoka coaches.
32:50
I just think it's a general consensus around the league that that team is a piece away from winning, and that piece could be Kevin Durant playing right here in Phoenix with me.
32:58
I, I, I think that that's a team that maybe would beat the Warriors. I would like them in that match-up. But if they faced Minnesota, I would like Minnesota's chances.
33:06
But I do think that Golden State probably wants to see Houston in the first round too. All right. Zach, appreciate it as always, man. Do we have any, uh, match-up? We didn't find a match-up did we? Oh, I did.
33:14
Uh, not the match-up. Do, they only have exact result, uh, posted DraftKings. Uh, it is 900 to 1 for the Pacers to beat the Clippers. [laughs] Well, it's the other way around. I- 600... I, yeah. 600 to 1? Ah.
33:25
I don't think the Pacers are gonna w- are gonna make the finals. I just think it's a, a good enough play that you could hedge later. Pacers and Knicks much more live in the East now than they were two months ago.
33:36
900 to 1 and 600 to 1. Any time anybody gives you 900 to 1, Zach, no. [laughs] Um, all right. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it very much. Betting on S- Thanks, guys...
33:44
for Zach Cohen, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. We'll update the leaderboard at the Masters and some are we sure next
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
