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Apr 11, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 11, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 11, 2024
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44:24
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Fidlin. Hey-oh.
0:20
Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at the D. Did I say Numbers Game twice? I think I probably did. Yeah, whatever. Yeah, whatever. Um, we have a delay at Augusta. We do.
0:31
So we're gonna talk some Masters here, some more Masters off the top. This delay must be great for sports books, by the way, 'cause people who were already late to the d- to the, uh, window or the app- Yeah...
0:41
still have some more time. You got about a half hour more according to, uh, when we now see the scheduled starting tee time, the first starting tee time at Augusta.
0:51
Yeah, 10:30 Eastern, Erik van Rooyen and Jake Knapp will get out there. I'm surprised you didn't say EVR. You love calling him EVR, like people know who Erik van Rooyen is.
0:59
[laughs] Well, I had to, I had to dumb it down for the audience. Yeah. Okay, Gil? Come on. If it's just me and you, I say EVR. [laughs] 88th Masters, golf's first major of the year, of course.
1:07
Uh, we'll get into our bets, uh, bets that we added here and that we have, and, uh, a shout-out to a certain shop and asserting bet- a certain betting vehicle, which we wanna get into.
1:18
And, uh, Todd Wright, form- uh, a g- a guy who's been on the show many times, the greatest radio host there ever was, in my opinion, uh, back with All Night with Todd Wright.
1:26
He's not coming on the show, but he has a couple questions 'cause he wants to talk Masters at the, at the top here. So he's gonna do it via couple questions. Uh, Zach Cohen, Zach in Crack today.
1:34
Uh, we'll get some NBA thoughts from Zach as the season winds down. Everybody's playing tomorrow night. Everybody's playing Sunday night to wrap up the season. We do have some games today as well.
1:43
Um, and of course, Unscripted with the Crack Man. Oh, and one more thing today. It is UFC 300. Kelly. Boom, boom, boom. It's a banger. It is. 12 fights comprising a big banger at UFC 300.
1:55
Jordan Sherwood will, uh, be around, uh, to talk with us, co-host of the unnamed MMA podcast about the Masters. Um, I only have two outrights that I made pre-flop, as I mentioned, uh, before this week.
2:07
Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka. Uh, got 'em both just over 20 to 1, which isn't the best numbers. You, you got 'em a long time ago at better numbers. Hi- Hideki- It's a good number on Brooks.
2:17
Yeah, it's a good number. Both, both are, uh, just, just north of 20 to 1, plus 2050 if you wanna be exact. I added one top five in Scheffler and one top 10 in Finau. Um, those are my only top five and top 10 positions.
2:31
Here's where it gets fascinating, Kelly. And you, shout out to you. Can I do a shout out to you if you're right in front of me? [laughs] Hey, thanks, man. [laughs] Yeah. I don't know if that's proper.
2:40
I heard that shout out on the, on the Numbers Game this morning. Thanks. Yeah, I don't know if that's a proper shout out for him. [laughs] Um, so MGM, proud former sponsor of this show. Mm-hmm.
2:51
Uh, they have- And multiple books are doing this... And multiple books are doing this, correct. But here in Nevada- Yeah, right. [laughs] Yes Let's point that out... of options that we have.
3:00
Again, once this state gets legalized sports betting, boy, is it gonna be something. But here in Nevada, this is the only shop that has this. So they not only have first round leader. Mm-hmm.
3:08
But they also put in top five and top 10 first round. Yep. So after the first round, top fives and top tens. But here's the, uh, here's the rub. And I don't mean rub. Here's the good thing.
3:21
They pay out all ties, so it's not a dead heat if you finish in a massive tie at five, in top five, first round. It's not a massive tie at 10 if you finish top 10 in first round.
3:33
That is a, y- you are looking as a bettor for any kind of incremental edge that comes your way. So there's that. There's the fact that this is a smaller field to begin with than most tournaments.
3:48
It's also that it's a smaller field filled, I shouldn't say filled, but where a more than negligible portion of them are guys who won the Masters during the Eisenhower administration. Right, yeah.
3:58
A smaller field than even the field says it is. That's correct. So 89 total, but really less than that, right? 'Cause I hate to include Tiger, but I guess I have to.
4:08
I mean, for- The Tigers of the world aren't, aren't gonna lead after the first round, but I'm talking about, you know, the Bernard Langer types as well. Yeah, yeah.
4:16
Um- The, uh, uh, eh, like for one round, sh- could those guys go low? Yeah, they could. They could in one round. Right.
4:21
But you get the idea, that it's, it's a smaller group that you would think you would have to contend with. And you could say this for any tournament that looks to be com- So the US Open comes to mind, right? Mm-hmm.
4:34
US Open traditionally is one where the scoring is more difficult than your average tournament. Um, it is set up that way. That would be another tournament where this kind of thing is
4:47
just such a smart betting vehicle where- Yeah, where scoring's gonna be tough, right? Scoring's gonna be tough. Guys aren't gonna go really low. So it's not gonna be a wide variance of scores, right.
4:53
So, right, that's right. It's not gonna be, someone's not gonna shoot 10 under, then seven under, then four under. No, it's gonna be all tight.
5:00
And so having that ties pay off, you know, all ties paid, is such a big thing that you're almost, can I use the old Washington Nationals 2019 thing? You're almost obligated to make bets in these markets.
5:13
I, I mean, it's, it's been the market, the golf betting market that I've been the most fascinated with this season so far, and that I've been tinkering around with.
5:23
I haven't been heavily into it, but there's been a few tournaments so far where, uh, uh, the Valspar, for whatever reason, really comes to mind of where I kind of sunk, sunk some good money into it.
5:32
Uh, didn't really have good results at that one.
5:34
But it's really, it's kind of that process that I've been trying to develop through the season where you're like, "Okay, well, tournaments like you just laid out, tougher scoring.
5:44
If there's a sm- sh- smaller field, these make more sense in them." And I, that's not to say they're priced incorrectly. I, I, I'm not, I'm not making that leap at all. Oh, no, no, no. You know what I mean?
5:55
But I do think there is some quality value if you could isolate which tournaments the, the, these are more valuable in. And let me just also say real quick, I know Bernard Langer is not playing.
6:04
I was using him as an example, right? As, as a former- Yeah, he had an ACL tear or something like that? No, he tore his Achilles. Yeah. Oh. I got it on our Achilles, uh, email thread.
6:11
[laughs] Everybody who ever popped one- Sorry [laughs]... were like, "Bernard checking in. I just popped mine." Um, Todd Wright, again Former host of, uh, All Night with Todd Wright.
6:21
He did other radio shows too, but that's the most famous one, back into ESPN overnight back in the day. So he has a couple questions. Here's the first one. Um,
6:30
Scottie Scheffler, who is the short shot to win this tournament, average plus 450, we'd say, as a pre-flop short shot.
6:37
Oh, real, real quick, I guess I should say, I play- I played Hideki and Xander first round leaders today, and top 10s then with both of those guys. Oh, flash, let's put yours up on the board here.
6:44
I didn't have the first rounds up. Uh, I- Oh, you didn't? Yeah, no. Okay. Um, what did you have first round? Hideki and Xander, both first round leader, and then I played them in the top 10 market- Okay...
6:53
at about plus 250. So you basically proliferated them everywhere. Mm-hmm. Yeah, okay. As, as one should, right? One should correlate their, their outrights. I mean- Generally...
7:02
and what's awesome about that is, in theory, you could hit, I could hit three of, three or four of those. And in theory, you could miss out on all. Well, of course. Yeah. That's right.
7:09
But that's, I think that's how you, you obviously bet. So first thing Todd asked, and I think this is a valid question. We just came off an NCAA tournament, right? Where UConn was consensus best team in the country.
7:20
They were the short shot to win the NCAA title.
7:22
Um, some people had better numbers on them from, from the past, but there was some talk right before the tournament of people saying the exact same thing we're saying about Scottie Scheffler now, which is, "Yeah, but too short to play pre-flop."
7:32
In fact, we've said here on this show, "I'm gonna wait to see if Scheffler has a, you know- Yeah... not so awesome first round, and then perhaps jump in on him." Is this UConn all over again? Of course it could be. Yeah.
7:44
Like, it, it's got... Uh, uh, actually, l- I'll, I'll, I'll take it a step further. I would, I mean, obviously I know golf better than college basketball, but this would be way less shocking. Way less. Like, [laughs]
7:55
way less shocking- Yeah... if, if Scottie Scheffler just rolled through this tournament. I mean, on the one hand, yes, on the one hand, no. But it's, you know, it's the world number one.
8:04
UConn was kind of the world number one, too. But yeah, uh, anyway, we're, it's worth bringing up here within the delay- Like, yeah, Scottie Scheffler is that good... this week. Yes. Yes, because we haven't said it yet.
8:12
We're looking for other things that we haven't said this week. That's one of them.
8:15
Um, and I think it's worth bringing up because, yeah, a lot of us are gonna [laughs] sort of be like, like, cut to tomorrow, where he's up three strokes on the field. We're just gonna be like, "Oh, that was smart."
8:24
Right. Yeah. Uh- It could easily happen. Yeah. The other question,
8:29
uh, and this has to do with, well, it doesn't really, I don't know if it comes into play now or if it doesn't, 'cause, 'cause the weather obviously came earlier than we thought it would. Yeah, yeah.
8:38
So t- uh, let, let me clean that up a little bit. Yeah. So we're, we're gonna, we're gonna tee off here in about 20 minutes. Yeah. So slides everybody back today. Yeah. Right?
8:44
So there are likely, those last few groups are probably not going to finish today. Right. So I, it's not something that I'm running to redo bets or get a bunch of different bets in.
8:55
Uh, you didn't, you didn't em- let me ask the question. That's what Todd was gonna ask about. Oh, okay. Yeah. Now here's the question. You, you beat me to it. [laughs] Go ahead, Gill.
9:00
You have a question about the weather. No, this is what I was saying.
9:02
Does, this is, Todd's question was, does the first round leader value now shift to guys who will finish tomorrow morning, since weather tomorrow looks dry and less windy?
9:13
Although we're hearing conflicting things about the wind, too, right? He moved a play to Koepka as first round leader, thinking he gets at least his last four holes in tomorrow.
9:22
So there's that school of thought, and then there's the school of thought of people who start late-ish today, but not so late that they don't finish. I guess the whole question is,
9:32
do you even bother your brain with all of that? Um, a little bit. I actually would be going the other way from what Todd's doing. That's what I said to him. I'd go more the other way around.
9:42
I would, I, I would be targeting it. And we got a lot of questions about this yesterday. Yeah. I feel like we talked about this yesterday.
9:46
Now that we know what tee times are, and the afternoon actually looks re- looks relatively dry. I, it looks like it's gonna be relatively dry out there. The wind is going to be whipping around.
9:56
It will be a little bit more today than tomorrow.
9:59
But I'd rather rather have a guy that's gonna get out there and get a full, full 18 in today, instead of having to start his round, stop his round, get back out there tomorrow, uh, and play- Me, me too...
10:09
and play in the morning. My instinct says that. But, but again, it should be pointed out, this is all very gray area. Ri- exactly. Yeah. It is. And I'm also like, it looks like it's gonna be dry this afternoon.
10:19
Who the hell knows? I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but weather forecasting, not an exact science. Yeah.
10:24
I mean, I would, I mean, anybody but, was watching ESPN earlier this morning or anything like that, like I saw a, it was probably 6:00. No, it was like 5:00 our time. It was beautiful in Augusta.
10:33
They were still waiting, though, for one little rain cell to come through. So then they were gonna start play after that.
10:39
After you start the quarry that you're gonna start to, uh, surface tennis courts around the country- I'm gonna start the quarry. I want to invest in the company. Oh, invest in the company.
10:46
You don't want to actually do the digging? No, I'm not doing the digging. Okay. Uh, but after you do whatever you're doing with that. Do I look like a guy that could survive in a quarry? Quarry life? Actually.
10:54
[laughs] You, I mean, Fred Flintstone worked in a quarry, and you're kind of Flintstone-esque. [laughs] Wow, okay. If you want, if you want to know the truth. [laughs] I'm sorry.
11:04
Um, I say that in the most lovable way, by the way. [laughs] No, I was gonna say, then you, we should, we gotta start that service where you, like, track weather forecast.
11:11
Like, local weather person's predictions on weather. Someone has to start this service. Oh, yeah. Ken Pomeroy, by the way, Ken Pom himself used to be a, a, a meteorologist back in the day.
11:23
Well, he's still a meteorologist, I guess. You never lose that. But he used to really care about weather way more than college basketball. Yeah, that's- I think he made the right move... that's smart.
11:31
Meteorologist, great job. Are you offended by my Flintstone comparison? I don't mean to offend you. Not at all. You'd be great in a quarry. Better than I would be. [laughs] Let's put it that way. Uh, we'll come back.
11:40
More golf, basketball with Zach Cohen, uh, and this Cleveland Guardians bet still going. Update coming up. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:48
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. For a limited time, we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits for free.
12:04
Just sign up at vsin.com/splits. The VSiN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in all the action.
12:12
Find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money does not match the public opinion. You can check out not just today's action, uh, but future events as well, of course.
12:20
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12:30
Visit vsin.com/splits and start making smarter bets today. It's Gill Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Uh, it occurs to me, I was reading that promo perfectly timed because- You know who we got as our next guest? Who we got?
12:43
Some humans are just luckier than others. Former co-host of the great radio program and television program, Primetime Action.
12:51
Now current co-host of The Handle, which he does with Mike Somich, noon Eastern on the weekend, Saturdays and Sundays here at the network.
12:58
It's the great Matt Brown, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line in Atlanta, Georgia. How you doing, Matt? I'm doing well, man.
13:06
Glad to be on here with you guys as I, uh, as I make the trek over to check off a bucket list item here. [smacks lips] You have never been to the Masters, and this, the 88th edition, you are going.
13:16
Can you share with everybody, 'cause I'm sure, you know, 95%, if not 98% of the audience hasn't been there either, but they're trying to, how did you get so lucky this year? Well, Gil, so here's the thing.
13:29
Despite the fact that I am me, I actually do have rich and successful friends.
13:33
And, um, in society, what I've learned throughout the course of my years, is rich and successful people like to hang out with other rich and successful people.
13:41
[laughs] And, uh, and, and so somewhere along the way, my orthopedic surgeon buddy of mine, who was a, a roommate of mine in college, and, you know, despite all the facts that I know about him, I would still let him operate on me, uh, d- befriended some other doctors and, uh, whenever he was doing his fellowship, and one of the guys ended up at a practice here in Atlanta.
14:03
And, uh, they, throughout the course of it, they found a guy who was, who comes from...
14:10
You know how we talk about this, like, you, you hear about this in the South, but, like, this is really and truly one of those stories, like old money. Like, this guy came from, from old money. Whoa.
14:20
Like, the money has been in his family for, yes, like a, a couple hundred years and whatever. Um, it comes to find out this guy gets, you ready for this? This guy gets 40 badges a year. Oh my God. What? 40.
14:34
He gets 40 badges a year, which is, I guess, been in his family since this thing- [laughs]... got going or so- or whatever. So- They got the first 40? [laughs] And, uh... Yeah.
14:46
And so- Nothing, nothing good like old money. You know what I mean.
14:49
I guess there was four of them that, that came up, and the, their little, their text chain that they have going, some g- guy goes, "Hey, I don't know if anyone wants to go to the Masters, but it looks like I think I, I think I have access to four badges."
15:00
And- Oh... instantly like 20 people are like, "I'll take it. I'll take it. I'll take it. I'll take it." So they, they ended up chopping it up. So I'm going on Friday.
15:06
Someone had it for today, which unfortunately for them, because it is, uh, it is not great weather here, uh, currently.
15:11
But, and then we're taking them for Friday, and then someone else is taking them for Saturday, and someone else is taking them for Sunday. But I, I at least got one of the days of them, and I'm very happy about it.
15:19
All right. Before we get to your, your picks and your thoughts here, what is your Friday strategy? Are you a stay at one whole guy and let him play through, or are you a follow a certain player or two around?
15:29
So the only thing that I definitely have on the agenda is to at least go watch a hole or two of Tiger, because I can't shake that...
15:40
He hadn't announced anything obviously, but, like, I can't shake that this might be his last one. Yeah.
15:46
Like, if this goes very poorly of him trying to walk this course and his body just completely shuts down on him like it did, you know, the last time we saw him, he couldn't finish because, because of his body.
15:56
I, so I can't shake that maybe this is the last time that he plays this, at least competitively. You know, I mean.
16:02
And so, um, I'm gonna at least see a couple of holes of Tiger, but past that, I'm just kind of gonna take it all in. I, I'm just really gonna take it all in. No, no, no set strategy.
16:12
Just wander aimlessly and, and, uh, and, and take in all the beautiful things. All right. Got to do Amen Corner, though. Got to do that, right? Got to- Yes. Definitely got to do that. Yes. Yes. Absolutely. Okay.
16:21
All right. So how did, how did you bet this? So I made a c- i- i- I'm sure this is something you guys have talked about on the program throughout the course of the week.
16:30
It's, it's the only golf tournament where, where the odds have been up forever, right? So I did get a couple of guys a little bit earlier.
16:38
Um, and, and the numbers honestly drifted to a point where it wasn't, they weren't all that much better. Uh, I, I took Will Zalatoris at 49.
16:46
You could have gotten him as high as 40, 45, something like that, um, before tournament anyway, so it wasn't like I got that much better of a number.
16:53
Um, but the, the thing about Will Zalatoris is he is just unbelievably good at these big tournaments and hard courses and things like that.
17:02
You know, Kelly and I run models, and Wes runs models, and I'm sure a, a lot of people listening to the, to the show right now run models.
17:07
But if you, if you plugged in last 24, you plugged in last 36, you didn't, you didn't see Will Zalatoris' name. You really had to go back to pre-injury.
17:15
And he was playing through all of that injury stuff, and, and his numbers just, just tanked, and his play tanked.
17:20
But if you go back and, and plug in pre-injury Will Zalatoris, he was, he was likely in the top five of all of your models like he was for me. And so I believe he's healthy. He says he's healthy.
17:32
His play so far has shown that he is healthy. And so I went ahead and, and, and played some Will Zalatoris.
17:39
Um, the, the other guy that I, I played pre-tournament ended up being the, the super hot pick, maybe the pick of the tournament so far. Everybody's on Hideki. So- Mm.
17:47
Um, fade at your own, you know, you know, uh, fade, fade if you want to fade, you know, everybody else out there because H- Hideki is, is getting all the love.
17:54
I saw last night before I went to bed he had fallen down to, like, 14 to 1 in one of the books [laughs], which is just absurd.
18:01
But his, his form, as good as anyone in golf, I, I mean, just absolutely has the skill set because he's gotten it done here before, as we know.
18:09
And his putting is a liability all the time, but putting is neutralized on a course that is so incredibly hard like Augusta National. So, uh, really did like that.
18:17
A couple others, and I know Kelly bet, uh, Wyndham Clark as well. But for me, Wyndham Clark just checked all the boxes and, and everything I was looking for here. He's a long hitter, good with his long irons.
18:26
He's good around the green. He putts well, and that's just more of a bonus than anything else. Like I said, I didn't, I didn't put weight, put putting into my mo- model this week.
18:34
But he does every single thing that I'm looking for, and he does every single thing that I'm looking for well. And, and I, I look at a, a guy like Wyndham Clark, and I think that
18:43
He started out as just a, this, this cool story of, "Oh, there's, there's a guy who went to the sports psychologist, and now he turned his game around, and he's got his..."
18:51
And, oh, this, isn't this such a fun little great story to talk about?
18:54
To carrying it over into this year and competing yet again in big time tournaments against big time fields, like he might just be one of the 10 best golfers in the world right now.
19:03
And so I'll take advantage of that fat number that was attached to him. The last one's Cam Young, and it's, it was mainly just, it was just a fit thing. I know Cam Young has a one.
19:11
I know Cam Young is, is a guy that if you bet on him, has been super frustrating, but he just- the, the number drifted way too out.
19:18
55 to one on a guy that possesses the length and possesses the long irons, possesses all those things that we were checking and putting in our models this week.
19:25
I, I, I played the number, I played where he was showing up in the models, but, um, probably the one that I'm, I'm least confident in. Top 20 on Joaquin Niemann. Did you end up with any, uh, FRL or any match-ups? I did.
19:39
Um, I ended up, and I ended up playing a little bit of outright on, on Niemann as well.
19:43
This was something I mentioned on, something I mentioned on Long Shots this week that, that I, I didn't have it at the time that we recorded it, but did want to go ahead and, uh, but ended up doing it.
19:51
He drifted to 30 to 1 in a couple places before I took off yesterday, and, and it was, uh, a little bit too much for me, the drift on, on Joaquin Niemann.
20:01
If, if you talk about consistency, he's just been as consistent as, as possible out there.
20:04
A guy that you can, that you can absolutely, uh, seems like rely on week in, week out right now, despite the fact that all he has to live is results.
20:12
Uh, yeah, I mean, Gil, I don't, I don't have all of them off the top of my head, but I, I went after Collin Morikawa.
20:17
Um, any, any, any head-to-head, any head-to-head, any grouping, stuff like that, I, I attacked Collin Morikawa pretty good, and I went after Patrick Cantlay pretty good as well.
20:27
Um, two guys that have been really good on tour and have been really good players, but are not in form right now, and not only not in form, they are way, way out of form, and Augusta National's not the course where you walk out there and, and just fix all the things that have been ailing you.
20:43
So I actually went after both of those guys pretty good. All right. Uh, a fade of Morikawa and Cantlay in general from Matt. All right.
20:50
Um, I, by the way, I buried also the headline, not only the co-host of the handle, but of course co-host of the greatest podcast there ever, golf podcast there ever was, uh, Long Shots.
20:57
It's called Long Shots, which Matt, uh, hosts with Wes Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin. Um, and of course is available where all podcasts are distributed. Visit visa.com/podcast.
21:07
I said, Matt, uh, before I let you go, uh, that every one of those episodes ought to end with you and Wes in a shouting match, and then Kelly trying to break it up, and then it goes to black.
21:14
I think that will really step up the, the, uh, listenership to something that's already extraordinary. So kind of- Yeah. So just kind of Real Housewives it? Yeah. Something like that? Yeah.
21:24
Kind of in that, that sort of sense? That's right. That's right. All right. Real Housewives and Long Shots. Uh, listen, drive safely- Yeah... from Atlanta.
21:29
Uh, and remember, uh, pay mind, be mindful of the speed limit at all times, Matt. We, we hope you have a great- Yes. We'll do, we'll, we'll- Full- We'll do all of that.
21:37
I appreciate you guys, and, uh, and good luck to everyone out there. All right. Have a great time. Matt Brown's headed to the Masters, everybody. Yeah.
21:43
Kind enough to, uh, talk to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line from Atlanta, Georgia. He's at the, uh, airport, but you know how Matt travels. He's like in some lounge. That's why it sounded so good.
21:52
[laughs] I don't know. I think he's out of the airport. Yeah, he's, he's, so he's meeting- Oh. Yeah, he's meeting people, then they're going to Augusta. Yeah. Oh, I thought he told us he was at the airport right before.
22:01
Oh, you said Atlanta. You're right. Yeah. You're right, he did.
22:03
Okay, before we go to break here and crack, here's the, the biggest question I have for those who are, uh, y- traveling around and they might not be able to watch the Masters all day long, and they're gonna have to follow scores.
22:14
Should they be on the Masters website? Should they be on ESPN's website? What should they be on? What's the- Yeah, Masters app. Masters app. Yeah. Best scoring, quickest scoring of all of them.
22:22
For me, I mean, I don't think the other ones are horribly bad, but yeah, I, I know some people freak out about them. Some of them lag. Yeah. Big time. Yeah. All right.
22:31
First two-some's supposed to go off, and then it's three-somes from then on. EBR starting things off. Crack Man is next. Unscripted with The Crack Man.
22:39
Bill Krackomberger exclusively on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:21
Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for Unscripted with The Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger. [upbeat music] Woo. Good morning.
23:39
Good morning, sir. How you guys doing? All right? A little loud in my ears. Yeah. I'm not sure I have ear drums, but, uh- No worries. Oh my. Um, can we st- I, I, I want to start with this because- Yeah...
23:50
um, there are famous people who pass away. Sometimes we don't acknowledge it, sometimes we do.
23:56
This is one of the, uh, for, this is gonna be a, a very dicey one for, for people to, uh, go through, but I feel more awkward if I don't bring it up.
24:05
But according to the family, and I believe according to his son, this is a statement, uh, that we just got, and it looks like it is confirmed.
24:12
"On April 10th, our father, Orenthal James Simpson, succumbed to his battle with cancer. He was surrounded by his children and grandchildren.
24:21
During this time of transition, his family asks that you please respect their wishes for privacy and grace," a statement from his family said.
24:27
Uh, OJ Simpson has passed away, and of course, OJ Simpson, um, who, let's state the facts first, was, uh, was found not guilty of criminal charges, uh, of the, uh, the murders of, uh, Nicole Simpson and Ron Goldman, and then was found guilty in the civil case.
24:48
Um, but in the public court of opinion is largely believed to have committed the murders. I think that's probably the, the language one uses, uh, on mainstream media when they talk about this.
24:57
Um, but OJ Simpson Has passed away. So I don't want to not acknowledge it because that would seem awkward, but there you go.
25:04
Um, that is the breaking news of the morning for those outside of our little cocoon, because we're all concerned about our Masters bets this morning. Much more concerned about my Masters bets. Do you bet heavy on this?
25:18
I, I bet a lot on this. Yeah, I bet a lot on this, this, this week. Um, couldn't bring myself, I'll tell you. There, there's a bet that Circa offered.
25:26
Well, a couple places offered it, I seen it, but Circa had the best odds on it. The yes and no on Scheffler. All I'm hearing is everyone saying how great this guy, oh, he's playing Tiger-esque, and he's a...
25:37
I think the lay in 650 was a great bet. But I just couldn't blink, bring myself, you know, like do I lay 19.5 to win three grand? The 19.5 means more to me than the three grand means. Yeah. You know what I mean?
25:50
So, um- So repeat the bet again. The bet is what? W- Will Scheffler, you could have the field against Scheffler in the Masters. That's what you, that's what you're doing. You're betting the field against Scheffler.
25:58
I, I, I didn't do it. I- Oh, you didn't? I did not, but I think it was, I, I, I think I, I made a mistake, 'cause I, I just couldn't bring myself to do it.
26:05
And then when, then it went to 680, 690, this morning it was 700. Okay. The lay- laying seven to one, six- Okay, but you went 19, you immediately went to 19.5 to three.
26:14
Could you- Well- Would Bill Krackenberg have done less than that? N- n- no, I'm saying, yeah, I guess I could bet a dime, uh, to win a du- Now that's even, that'll even mean, you know, mean less, a dime.
26:22
No, I know, but I mean, was there a, was there a, I guess the proportion is the proportion and you don't care. Yeah. Yeah. I, I just thought that the, I thought it, I thought it was a good bet. I, I thought the no...
26:31
Listen, everyone bets yes bets on things because that's the only option they have.
26:37
Certain places like Circa, like, uh, there, there's like two other ones that have yes and no bets, or the field verse the, the, um, you know, a- against a certain person like Scheffler.
26:49
Um, but that being said, I, uh, I, I did bet, um, a plethora of matchups and, and, uh- I like it. I like it that you dive into this tournament. Yeah. Well, no, actually I bet golf every week.
27:02
I just, this is the one that's more publicized to talk about. Uh, let me, I, I think you could still bet this, so I'm gonna give the, everyone a play. I think it's a really good bet. Uh, Matsuyama against Spieth.
27:13
You too. Oh, you guys are on it too? Uh, well not that particular matchup, but- I'm on that exact matchup. [laughs] There you go. Kelly is. Oh, yeah. But everybody's on Matsuyama. All right.
27:21
Well, that's, well, that's dead. But, um- [laughs] No. No, Matsuyama- Yeah... Matsuyama, I think, uh, you know, he's one here. Spieth's one here too, but Spieth's one here I think 2015, a pretty long time ago.
27:33
But he- There was a moment, it, it is worth bringing up. There was a moment where w- as a golf
27:39
fan public, and not o- not only just bettors, but also as just golf fans, there was a moment in time where it looked like Jordan Spieth could be live to win every Masters every year.
27:48
Oh, during that three-year period- Yeah... he was, he, he was amazing too. And then he just kept talking and, uh, you know, he's talked himself out. [laughs] Yeah. No, I'm just kidding. No.
27:56
He's Ke- Kelly's favorite golfer because the amount he yaps on a golf course. Oh, okay. My favorite least favorite golfer. "What do you think? Should I, uh, what iron? Seven iron, six iron? I don't know.
28:04
Seven iron or six iron?" He just does not stop talking. Oh, wow. Oh my God. Okay. Um, yeah, s- so last year of course you guys know this, I mean, you know, you know I actually went, I went there last year.
28:13
Oh, how we do know. We had a great shot. How we still, can I just say a year later, thank you again. Oh, yeah. For those who missed it, uh, you're not allowed to take cell phones onto the premises. Correct.
28:24
How did we let you in on the premises, Bill Krackenberg? Right. So you're not allowed to take it onto the premises, so Bill stationed himself right outside of Magnolia Lane. Yes.
28:32
Uh, you could see that little scooter deal you were using. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. In the background. I c- But you held up your, your phone- I was on my phone... and you did what? Two, three segments with us?
28:41
I did a couple segments. Yeah. It was great. It was great. You know what it is? You have to wait things out. So the next week I go to Hilton Head every year, 20-some years now. Oh.
28:49
Uh, Hilton Head, which is the, is also the PGA Tour, the Heritage Golf Tournament, which by the way, went from a million-dollar first prize to four million after LIV was created. Yeah.
28:59
So every single golfer was there last year. I'm sure a lot are gonna be there, there this year. All the big names and, and, and I just love Hilton Head, and I'm gonna be there next week. Um,
29:09
so I just said, you know, until you go to the Masters, even me with, I have great connections at the Masters. So even myself, what do you think a week would cost there? The one thing that- Oh, we get a hotel?
29:22
Hotel, airfare, tickets- Oh, man... dinners out. Like what do you think that would cost? Oh, man. What do you think a week at H- at, at the Masters would cost? Great connections. Tickets at, almost cost-
29:33
I mean- $5,000... much more. Yeah. Almost double. Wow. Yeah. And that's at cost, about eight grand. You know, that's cost. So, um- [sighs]... it, it, a four-day Masters badge, [sighs]
29:45
you know, they're, I seen them going for 10 to 12,000 just for the Masters badge to get on the course. I can get that badge for anywhere from 500 to 1,000 a day, which is- That's awesome...
29:55
you know, it's, it's, I know it's, people are like, "What do you mean? That's still crazy. $500." Yes.
30:00
I think Wednesday's a great day to pitch and putt, and the, the amateur, the, the, uh, there's a lot of different things you can go for. I think Tuesday, Wednesday's great days to go.
30:07
Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and then, and, and then I just watch it on TV. But that's what I did last year. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. That cost me around three grand for the, for them.
30:17
The hotel room, the worst hotel room. [laughs] The worst one. I mean, this is what I was wondering about. Oh. You know, the hotels- No... and Airbnbs- No... or whatever out there. No, no, no, no.
30:26
R- really, Bed Bug Express is 549 a night. I mean, it's crazy. [laughs] Yep. Um, no, it, it, it, there's a Motel 6, which is 549. Now you can go up to- Oh my God. Oh, yeah.
30:36
Motel 6 is f- There, there's, there is a Motel 6 in Augusta. Oh, man. That's awesome. People don't realize this too.
30:40
You go outside the gates of Augusta, you're inside Augusta, the manicured greens and the, you know, the, the class and the, uh, the history of the place.
30:49
You go outside the place, it's, it's, uh, whew, it's not the best, it's not the best place. There's no four-star hotels. Yeah. There's Motel 6. It's, it's an old, you know, an old town.
31:00
I wanna say other words, I just don't wanna get canceled. Um, but, um, no, there, there, there's some... Listen, here's what it is too. Uh, Hampton Inn. I think that was Hampton Inn I stayed in last year.
31:10
One of the Choice hotels. So- One of the Choice hotels. [laughs] One of the Choice hotel- He feels like one of the- One of the Choice hotel brands... one of the Clarion hotels.
31:17
Yeah, one of those- Bill's very familiar with this... one of those, one of those, one of those hotels, uh, was f- I, I got a deal. I got a deal. I had to buy four nights, and it was 600 a night.
31:27
If you buy, if you didn't buy four, it's 700 a night. Now that, that was like the, by the way- Oh... that's the cheapest. So now you- You should...
31:34
now with taxes and fees and, you know, like I, I was trying to tell him, "Listen, I'm not using the gym. Trust me. I don't even talk to anyone named Gym." Resort fees. Resort fee, yeah. [laughs] So yeah.
31:43
Um- You should, uh, be so privileged, Bill Krackomberger... right. Right. So that, that was, uh, about 2,800. So let's, let's cost the, that, that's like three grand. So you're up to six grand now.
31:52
Airfare, which is, it's not e- there's no direct flights from Vegas to Augusta. Yeah. So, um- Yeah, we were trying to determine, Matt went to Atlanta, but we were trying to determine- Yeah...
32:01
if there, if a South Carolina destination, 'cause it's real- it's really close to the northeast. It's the northeast portion of Georgia. Yeah. So it's right next to South Carolina. Yes, yes.
32:09
There's a town down there that's a cool, it's a great town, old. It's so full of history and charm, and that southern hospitality, and great food, Charleston. So y- you can go to Charleston, I guess.
32:21
I have a buddy li- lives there. I could fly, and you could fly nonstop here on Breeze Airlines, which I love Breeze Airlines. I'm actually flying them next week. Um, they're a pr- a pretty new startup.
32:31
I think I talked about this before. You vouch for Breeze, huh? All right. Listen- Okay... the, it's, it's the CEO of JetBlue opened up Breeze Airlines.
32:38
They have, uh, nonstop flights to so many destinations that don't offer nonstop from Vegas.
32:44
And, uh, first class they have the first 10 rows, which you're talking 40 seats first class for, I don't know, I think it's like 300 each way. Three, I think I'm paying $300 one way. That's unbelievable.
32:57
I remember when Bill first brought this up. Like, like when you- It's unbelievable... like when the airline first started or whatever, you brought this up. Yeah, Hartford. I remember looking at tickets. Yeah.
33:03
Nonstop from here to Hartford to go to Foxwoods to bet DraftKings counter bets at DraftKings. Um, yeah, that's like, you can catch a 249 first class one way. It is. Which is great, so.
33:13
It's a beautiful history if you're one of us, of course. Yes. Yes. Thank you, Bill. Uh, Bill stays with us. Yes. Unscripted. O- OJ's gone, but I'm here.
33:21
Unscr- [laughs] Unscripted with the crack man continues with Bill Krackomberger, exclusively on the Numbers Game at VSAN, the sports betting network.
33:28
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSAN, the sports betting network.
33:44
There's never been a better time to have skin in the game with DraftKings Sportsbook because right now we have a VSAN exclusive offer for new DraftKings customers. Earn a $500 bonus bet for every $1,000 you wager.
33:56
That is a heck of a deal. You can earn up to $2,500 worth of bonus bets in your first three days on DraftKings. Don't wait. Download the app now.
34:02
Use code ANG when you sign up, and earn a $500 bonus bet for every $1,000 you wager. Now, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, um, getting ready for four days sitting in front of the TV and watching the Masters.
34:18
But if you want some UFC action, we got you covered. UFC 300. Woo-hoo, big one. 12 fights.
34:25
I, I saw some, uh, ranking of this list, and the Jessica Andrade fight was l- listed as the worst, and even that one's good kinda thing. That's how good of a card this is that Dana White has put together.
34:36
And as always, to help us, uh, navigate the entire card, it's our buddy Jordan Schur- uh, Jordan Sherwood, the co-host of the Unnamed MMA Podcast at ESPN Chicago.
34:45
You can follow him on Twitter @woodonESPN1000, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Jordan, it's as good as billed, isn't it? Yeah, top to bottom. Actually, one correction, 13 fights. 13. Sorry. Uh, for UFC 300.
34:58
Yeah, top to bottom, it's great. Every single fight, uh, i- is definitely worth watching. I mean, we, we, we open the card with two former champions. Uh, you never get that as part of a UFC card.
35:10
So, uh, Dana White certainly, he did outdid it, do himself, but I will say it, it does lack a little bit of star power.
35:17
There's no Conor McGregor, there's no Jon Jones, there's no, there's no casual MMA fan that's gonna bring him in.
35:23
But nonetheless, there's money to be made, and there's fights to watch, and I'm excited for Saturday night.
35:28
Well, since you alluded to the very first fight of them all, uh, in terms of the, uh, chronology of these on Saturday, uh, Deiveson Figueiredo and Garbrandt, this is supposed to just be mayhem, just fighters going at each other.
35:41
What do you got here? Yeah, yeah, absolute bonkers. I mean, it's silly that they... I mean, these two guys were actually supposed to fight for the championship.
35:48
Uh, about two years ago, Cody Garbrandt had to pull out of that fight because, uh, he had COVID. Now they, they meet in a new weight class for Figueiredo. Uh, and I like Deiveson in this fight.
35:57
I think he's gonna get the matchup stylistically that he wants. Uh, two guys are gonna meet in the center of the octagon and try and knock the other out.
36:05
Garbrandt's been touched up a bit, uh, a couple of times throughout his career. And Figueiredo, no matter if he's fighting at 125 or now at 135, he hits like a Mack truck.
36:16
He's not gonna be intimidated by Garbrandt's wrestling. So, uh, you know, Deiveson is a big favorite as we see, Gil. You know, he's a near $3 favorite in some books. You gotta find value.
36:26
I think he wins the fight via knockout. I, I think that Garbrandt's chin is gone, uh, and Deiveson just needs w- you know, one overhand right, uh, to end the night, and I think he's gonna do it.
36:37
I don't think he's gonna be threatened by wrestling or the speed of Garbrandt because Deiveson is as quick as him. So the value is, is, is Deiveson inside the distance, or my method of victory is gonna be v- via KO.
36:49
All right. That's part of the early prelims. That's the very first fight of the night. Uh, let's go to the, one of the prelims.
36:54
I'm curious because even the most casual UFC observer remembers, uh, the Ronda Rousey-Holly Holm fight from back in the day, and I've heard this one, uh, from some say, "Okay, this, this kind of calls to mind that."
37:06
It's Holly Holm, who's I believe 43 years old, uh, going up, uh, g- uh, g- going up, pardon me. What's wrong with me? Going up against Kayla Harrison here, who is making the move to UFC.
37:18
Uh, Kayla Harrison's a big favorite. What's your thought on a bet here?
37:22
Yeah, and the similarities also, you know, Kayla Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, and Ronda Rousey came from a, a judo background as well.
37:31
The, the only difference here, and, and the thing to note is you have to wait until weigh-ins to bet this fight. Kayla Harrison, for the first time in her career, is making the jump down to 135 pounds.
37:42
Prior to that she competed at 155 and 145. So how does the weight cut go?
37:47
By all accounts this week, she's looked great, she's said all the right things, but come Friday afternoon, does she show up early to, to the weigh-ins? Does she look drained or does she look right?
37:59
If she looks right, it's her fight to lose. I mean, she's gonna dictate where this fight goes.
38:03
She's likely gonna be able to get Holly Holm to the ground, uh, and either, uh, you know, control her or, and my method of victory actually to gain some value is that she's gonna get a, uh, a submission finish.
38:14
Holly Holm, very difficult fighter to get down, very difficult fighter to submit, but A, we're not talking about the same Holly Holm as you just alluded to, Gil, that knocked out Ronda Rousey all those years ago.
38:24
She's 42, 43 years of age, uh, and she has been taken down and controlled in previous fights. This is the best grappler that she's fought probably since Ronda Rousey, and I think Kayla Harrison shines in her UFC debut.
38:37
This could be a future women's star for the UFC, and why not showcase her at UFC 300 against a former, uh, champion in, in Holly Holm. Yeah, Holly Holm, 42 as you said, not 43. Let me not add a year.
38:49
Uh, okay, we go to the main card. The first of the fights on the main card is, uh, the biggest favorite on the board. Um, we got Bo Nickal fighting here.
38:58
I assume you think he's gonna take down Brundage, but how do we bet this? Yeah, yeah, I think he's gonna take down.
39:04
I mean, I think you were talking as, uh, with, with Kelly Bidlin about wrestling off the air prior to me coming on.
39:09
This is, and I've alluded to it with you before, this is King Kong Bundy versus Sam Jones, you know, in the old school way. That this is a squash match.
39:17
This is a showcase fight for Bo Nickal, and it's no discredit to Cody Brundage. He has a couple of wins in the UFC, but outside of a double leg takedown and a guillotine, he doesn't really offer much else.
39:27
Bo Nickal is a future star. That's why he's on the main card of UFC 300. That's why he's opening up the pay-per-view. Uh, yeah, 13 to one favorite. Uh, you know, y- you can't lay that money even in a parlay.
39:39
So what's gonna happen? Nickal's gonna get this fight to the ground, and we've seen Cody Brundage struggle when he's been put on his back. Nickal's gonna get a, a TKO finish.
39:49
He's actually more of a submission guy when he gets on top of people, but I think he goes for, uh, a TKO finish. A little bit more value in, in that prop. So Bo Nickal via TKO. You can even get cute.
40:00
Bo Nickal T- TKO round one if you want. This is going to be a quick fight, a quick night for Bo Nickal to showcase his talent. Yeah, we're seeing about plus 145 on Bo Nickal via TKO.
40:11
All right, before we get to the, uh, the
40:15
top of the card here, let's go to the one that in that same article where I was like, "Okay, they got the, uh, Andradé fight as the 13th out of 13," this is widely, uh, when you look at the consensus, widely considered to be the best fight of the night.
40:29
Potential for fight of the year all over this one. Uh, for the bad, for Kelly, it's for the BMF, the bad, meh, uh, title as well. Yeah, yeah.
40:38
[laughs] Uh, Gaethje, Justin Gaethje, who knocks out everybody, and then Max Holloway, who never has been knocked out. Gaethje is a minus 162 favorite. Fight of the night, lightweight bout, what do you got?
40:50
Yeah, it's a fantastic fight. Glad these two guys agreed because either one of them could make a case for fighting for the championship.
40:55
Gaethje in the lightweight division and featherweight, uh, uh, Holloway in the featherweight division.
41:00
Um, the way that I'm handicapping this fight is this is now the second time that Max Holloway has made the leap up from 145 to 155. The first time it did not go so well. It was against Dustin Poirier.
41:11
And, and the way that Max Holloway fights, Gil, is that he just keeps coming after you.
41:15
He's got one of the best chins, uh, ever in, in mixed martial arts UFC history, and he just over time just overwhelms people with his great cardio, his great fluid striking, and his ability to maybe, you know, take a fight to the ground when he needs to.
41:29
I think that experience going up, uh, in weight against Dustin Poirier, which he lost, is going to help him against a power puncher, a guy that's a knockout artist in Justin Gaethje that's going to look to inflict damage.
41:41
And I think over time, even though Gaethje's no slouch when it comes to cardio, I think over time in this five-round fight, uh, remember, it's a five-round fight for the BMF championship, Holloway's gonna be able to take control over time.
41:52
So I think there's tremendous value. Max looked filled up, uh, when I've seen him in the interviews this week. He looks like that the weight up is not gonna bother him like it did in the previous experience.
42:02
So I think there's tremendous value right now on Max Holloway as an underdog against Justin Gaethje the second go-around, uh, in the lightweight division. Wow, okay. And then the main event, Alex Pereira, Jamal Hill.
42:15
Um, I guess the question here becomes will Hill stand and trade with Pereira? Will he mix in the grappling? How do you see this going with this being pretty tightly lined?
42:25
Yeah, well he'll probably wanna mix in the grappling. I'm not that sure that he will. A, Pereira's shown improved takedown defense, and he's, he made his UFC debut.
42:32
Obviously, he's tra- he's training every single day with Glover Teixeira, former champion of the division. Uh, and was this too quick a turnaround for Hill?
42:39
I mean, he ruptured his Achilles tendon back in July of last year. Ouch. Now he's already back into the cage. Was he able to go fully committed to the camp?
42:47
All, uh, you know, pundits on, on one side say, "Yes, he's looked great in camp. He's prepared. He looks filled. He's ready to go." Others say, "Well, it's a little bit too quick of a turnaround."
42:55
I'm on the, the, the latter. I think Pereira, all he has to do is one, land one of those left hands, and Hill's lights go out.
43:03
I think there's value even in Pereira, what, $1.45, $1.50, to get the fight that he wants in the middle of the octagon, one guy going to sleep, and I think Pereira will be the champion.
43:12
And oh, by the way, Gil, there's incentive for Pereira to win because if he wins and he wins kinda unscathed, he has been promised a headlining spot next month in his native Brazil, uh, to f- defend the UFC light heavyweight strap there.
43:25
It's a big deal to Pereira. He wrote that into his contract. Wow.
43:29
He wouldn't take the fight unless he got that, uh, assurance, so I think he's, uh, uber motivated to take that fight, uh, next month, so that's why he's gonna knock out Jamal Hill Tom- on Saturday night. All right.
43:39
You said this earlier, but I just wanna clarify. So up to minus 150 it's a bet? Yes, absolutely. I love Pereira at that value. All right. Jordan Sherwood, UFC 300. We appreciate it, man. Enjoy the fights. Oh.
43:50
Good luck with all the bets. All right. Thanks for having me on, fellas. [upbeat music] My man, Jordan Sherwood, everybody, uh, joining us always. Uh, what a, what a card this is. It really is.
43:58
[laughs] Even you and I are getting excited. Yeah, I'm with you. Like you- Yeah... I mean, the prelims, you could just look over those and, like, there's crazy good names on there.
44:05
Eric Van Rooyen, Danny Willett, both two under. Uh-oh. Atop the leaderboard of the Masters, the 88th Masters, a tradition unlike any other. Enjoy the day. We've done all we can do.
44:16
Gojo and Golick are next from VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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