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Apr 12, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 12, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 12, 2024
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44:34
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
There's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Live from Bar Canada, the D. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. It's a numbers game. Muy bien. Muy bien.
0:24
Spanish. Kelly Bidlin, how you doing, man? You good? I'm good. We've just, you know, you and I have just been here for hours settling in and preparing. Oh, prep.
0:32
Just sitting here talking and prepping for- I feel like- I'm gonna tell you this about Las Vegas... I feel like we haven't done this since F1, so go ahead. We have not. Thank you. Because, because there- Thank you...
0:40
there's good reason for it. It is as if the city of Las Vegas wants you to be late for work. It doesn't matter how much time you allot before you have to be somewhere. It's, first of all, it's where I live too, right?
0:54
I'm right in the middle of the strip, so the construction of getting out- It's not just you, though... Okay, this is so, it continued.
0:59
So it took forever to just get out of where I am, and then the rest of the way here, typically I leave enough buffer that I can just, you know, I don't even have to take the freeway.
1:08
W- Since we moved to the D, I didn't, but South Point was always freeway. But here, you typically go Dean Martin. They decided to cone it off to a one-way street. Yes. One-lane street- Yes...
1:20
pardon me, with zero construction happening simultaneously. So just the cones. Just the cones. Nothing actually being worked on.
1:28
I took that same route up today bec- I took that same route up because the other day, 15 was such a mess- Oh... because of construction they're doing there. Sorry.
1:35
I'm sure this is ri- I'm sure this is ri- Yeah, I know it's riveting- Everything's okay, Paul... riveting conversation here, but it has been chaos. Just to let you know, we're, we're of the people.
1:41
We, we were almost late. Um, on the show today, so many things. Chris Fallica, who apparently is also traveling, uh, we will talk to him about multiple sports. He, of course, from Fox Sports, the Bear Bets Podcast.
1:53
John Legasse on baseball. Paul Carr on the Premier League. Lou Finicaro. Oh, sweet Lou, Gamblu, with some UFC 300 thoughts. Uh, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke.
2:05
And Jason Weingarten, nonetheless, or excuse me, no less, will talk about, uh, not only his bets, but, uh, Jason Weingarten I'm sure will have thoughts on, uh, God forbid I ask him about, uh, OJ and about Shohei,
2:19
and anything else under the sun. Let me just say this, we will have later on the show, 'cause in case you missed it yesterday, uh, the news of OJ's death, uh, came on while we were on with Crack yesterday.
2:29
I stated the facts, and then, uh, the next thing out of anyone's mouth was Crack immediately went back into golf, and that's how we treated it, right?
2:37
Like, oh, guilty of this, uh, or excuse me, acquitted of this, guilty in civil, uh, court of public opinion, and then we moved on.
2:45
I do think it gives us entree to, for a couple minutes, I think it's like three minutes long, play the numbers game classic Nick Bakay story. We will play that later in the show. Yeah.
2:56
Oh, it- We'll get Jason's reaction to that. It's, it's good stuff. I think it- Yeah... I think it encapsulates a lot of people's feelings- It does... uh, when it comes to, uh, to OJ.
3:03
Nick Bakay, who, uh, is responsible for, among other things, uh, what is the... Paul, what was the, was the name of that movie? Mall Cop? Paul Blart. Uh, Paul, Paul Blart. Paul Bart- Paul Blart Mall Cop. It's a mouthful.
3:17
I, I think that's it. That's it. Yeah. [laughs] Paul Blart Mall Cop. Um, and, uh, so many other things, including, uh, he was, played the voice of the cat in Sabrina the Witch. Anyway, he's behind Bookie also on Netflix.
3:26
They're shooting season two. So we'll play his old... He's a, he's a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan, and he had an encounter with OJ that really represents how media had to sort of
3:36
deal with the con- the conflicts in their head about OJ yesterday. Um, the other thing I bro- I brought up Shohei, before we get to the Masters here and the Masters update.
3:45
You know how we come, I come on this show and I'm like, "Oh, this story, I don't think people are making enough of this story"? I think the Shohei thing is the opposite.
3:52
Like, I am just not nearly as interested in this, the, the Shohei interpreter betting stuff as most people are because, and I'll go back to the very first day when we, when the news broke, um, and I, we juxtaposed it, we did against Ja'onte Porter- Yeah...
4:08
in the NBA. Yeah. And I remember saying, "Oh, Ja'onte Porter, g- guilty," right? Like, I can see how this is a thing. He doesn't make a lot of money. Okay, the props were manipulated.
4:18
Shohei, we came on the next day and I was like, "Listen, those of you who are so convinced that it's Shohei doing the betting and not the interpreter, um, maybe you're right.
4:27
Maybe you're right, but I'd like to present a different world in which everyone's just telling the truth here, and that Shohei didn't have anything to do with any of this."
4:35
And it is a really ca- it's a case study for, we do this in politics. If you're f- if you're left, if you're right, it doesn't matter. We have confirmation bias in our heads. That's our flawed human brains, right?
4:48
If, and if we get fed information that confirms our preexisting bias, we, oh yeah, we latch onto it. If it's something counter to it, we tend to come up with reasons as to why it can't possibly be. Yep.
5:00
And I think the Shohei thing is, we found out yesterday, I mean, the mechanics of the betting were fa- [laughs] were sort of fascinating. [laughs] Yeah, we've been talking about that for a long time.
5:07
$10, $10 to $160,000 bets. Uh, was it Andy Molitor from The Deep Dive was like, "That sounds like a horrible Martingale gone wrong."
5:16
[laughs] And then Roxy, Roxy Roxborough was like, "So did he think he had an edge on the 160,000 and not so much on the 10?" Uh- I, I, the, the, from the gambling perspective- Yeah...
5:28
I had so many of those internal questions. There's so... Yeah, that was amusing. Like, is your one, is, is $10 your one unit bet? Like, you know what I mean? Right. Did you go to 16,000 extra- That's right...
5:37
on your, uh... [laughs] But in the end, everything they have, the interpreter said, even when, even when the bookie Boyer accused him, like, "Oh, I..." Not accused him, but said- Right, yeah...
5:45
"Oh, I know where this money's coming from. You're clearly, it's a cover-up." He's, he's like, "No, technically I stole from him."
5:50
Like, so all the evidence suggests that, that this was not Shohei, and there's no baseball. Right, yeah.
5:55
So until you can tell me Shohei Ohtani bet on baseball and was playing games that he either did or did not have a bet on, to me it's a big nothing burger, but Jason will come on and tell me I'm wrong. [laughs] Maybe.
6:04
Maybe. I don't know. I, I mean, I do think that the...
6:07
You know, when we first talked about that story, it was, "Hey, look, I, I- There's, I don't, I didn't think anything was gonna happen to Shohei from what we knew when it first came out, unless something came out in this federal investigation, right?
6:18
So they, I think the feds did a good job, and they, they said it during the press conference yesterday of, hey, they knew there was a lot of national interest in this story, so they wanted to, you know, clear it up as, as quickly as they possibly could.
6:30
Um, and really were, made it very clear yesterday that Shohei Ohtani was being treated as a victim and not part of, you know, these gambling allegations that are going on with the, with the other people involved.
6:42
All right, first round in the books now at the Masters, after it was, uh, cut off at the end of the day yesterday.
6:47
They got, they got more than they thought they would in yesterday, so, uh, the weather was by and large circumvented, but not completely. But they got it done today.
6:55
DeChambeau was your first round leader, Bryson DeChambeau at seven under.
6:59
Scottie Scheffler, the world number [laughs] one at six under, uh, was in second place, and neither of those two guys have tipped, uh, have, uh, teed off yet today. They will a little later on.
7:09
But if we go back to that thing, the last 19 years, Kelly, only the top 10 golfers can win this tournament, or the top, uh, 10 after the first round.
7:16
It's DeChambeau, Scheffler, um, Hoagard, Homa, Max Homa with a five under, two strokes back, uh, Davis, Willett, Fox, Pavin, and Young. Or there's a, there's a big tie I guess at eight, right?
7:31
Pavin, Young, um- Yeah, you got a few guys... s- a few guys are still on there. At two under. Connors and Fleetwoods of the world. But that's, that's the list, right? That's it. Um, on as well at two under.
7:45
So th- it's from that group if you believe in that trend.
7:48
The only thing I added yesterday, and I, I texted, uh, I texted you, texted my buddies about this too, is when Scheffler got to three under, I hated myself so much for just abiding by the, "Oh, well, he's plus 450 pre-flop.
8:03
Ah, that's not good enough. I'm gonna wait for him to screw it up in the first round and then do it." Nope.
8:07
When he got to three under, which was at that time four behind DeChambeau, I'm like, "I can't take it anymore," and I grabbed him at plus 240.
8:14
So that's the only thing I've added, because the rest of this for me has been a disaster. Yeah. 'Cause the, the two guys that I backed are gonna have to do work to make the cut today. Yep.
8:24
Matsui- Matsuyama for real, 'cause he had a four over first round, and I believe Brooks Koepka wrapped up his first round at one over, if I'm not mistaken. Oh, let's check that. Brooks- Yeah... is one over. Yep.
8:34
We're in that weird thing where the scoreboard is tough to sort of interpret this morning. [laughs] Well, yeah. Yeah. Like, like I say, I think we're finally done with round one. I think we are, yes.
8:41
We did have the oddity when I was driving in, where you're listening to guys finishing up their first round- Yeah... while other guys are starting their second round.
8:49
Yeah, Matsuyama's a disaster with the putter yesterday, and then- Yeah... yeah, I saw it with him. I saw it with a couple, a couple guys yesterday. Man, it is, it's always the major pressure I feel like that it heats up.
9:00
And man, some of these guys look like they're chasing. Like, there were a couple times yesterday with Dech- Dechy hi- hits, misses fairway.
9:07
He's in the pine straw, and then he's pulling out a wood to go for the green, and I'm like, "Oh, man," like, "what are you doing?" Yeah.
9:13
And then he's in the water, and they're like, you can just so, you can compound errors so easily here.
9:19
Neiman and Zalatoris, by the way, also in the group, that was two under, so I should add them to that list of these guys can possibly win this tournament based on that trend.
9:26
So generally, my tournament boils down to, with Matsuyama and Koepka, well, I shouldn't say Koepka, but Matsuyama definitely, again, you sh- shouldn't say definitely either, but looking like he will not be part of this.
9:38
Um, I'm relying completely on the Scheffler top five pre-flop, the Scheffler in tournament, and the Tony Finau top 10. Tony Finau was one under.
9:47
Yeah, he was another guy I, uh, we wrote up some stuff last night at theasin.com, just kind of some thoughts. I think Matt Brown, Matt Humans, and myself all contributed.
9:54
He, he was one guy that I, I pointed out just looking at what the, what he did first round, really good on approach. Thought Finau, uh, I have him in a match up, you have him in a top, top 10, right?
10:04
I think a live top 20 bet or a top 10 bet on him is still really solid. He, him and Cantlay, kind of similar rounds yesterday.
10:11
I think either one you could kind of make a case for in that live top 20 or top 10 market if you wanted to get involved. Really good, uh, approach numbers yesterday, like they often do.
10:20
Um, just kind of missing a little bit with, with the putter and off the tee. But both those guys you expect to be better off the tee.
10:26
Get a couple spike putting rounds in there, they could easily fall into, into those top 20, top 10 by the end. Yeah, and Eldrick Tiger Woods yesterday. Tiger, um, he had 13 holes in yesterday.
10:38
13 holes before his round had to stop, before they, uh, uh, blew the whistle, as I believe Too Short once said. Uh, and, uh, Tiger ended up, he was, what was it yesterday? He was even
10:49
after 13, and he ends up giving one back. Or actually it was one under, I believe, and then he gave two back this morning. Yeah. So he's one over for the first round, which is exactly where Phil is.
11:00
So a lot of folks played that prop where they thought, you know, the Mickelson number was way too short, and they bet a lot of Phil Mickelson head-to-head against Tiger.
11:10
Uh, at least after the first round, it is even between those two. They are both one over. Obviously, one round of golf, uh, perhaps left to determine that, because one of them might miss the cut.
11:21
Both of them might miss the cut. We'll see. I don't know. Maybe they both make the cut. But right now that is very much up in the air, the old Phil Tiger prop. Still awesome to see him out there. It is.
11:30
I, I, like I'm rooting so hard for that guy to make the cut and be around for the weekend. As he walks, does a little part of you every step he takes goes, "Oh, oh."
11:38
Yeah, but he also looks like he could bench me right now. Oh, he could totally crush you, and me. I also want to ask Kelly about this NBA theory I had earlier in the week. Revisit that in the last weekend of the NBA.
11:48
Felika as well next. Numbers game. Vs. The Sports Betting Network.
11:58
VSiN, the sports betting network Tonight you can download the Long Shots podcast for our After the Cut Masters coverage. How many podcasts did you guys do for this tournament? For this tournament. A lot.
12:10
[laughs] Host Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidling- We love it... dissect the leaderboard, analyze key performances, and discuss the best betting opportunities for the weekend ahead.
12:18
From the contenders making their move to the surprises of the tournament, our expert panel provide in-depth insights and strategies to help you bet the Masters smarter.
12:25
Download the Long Shot podcast tonight at vsin.com/podcast or whenever or wherever you get your podcasts. For continued coverage, check out vsin.com/masters. VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:36
Oh, yeah, again, we, we wrote, uh, there's some, uh, stuff written up at vsin.com from Matt Brown, Matt Humans, and myself for round two and on, and then yeah, Wes and I will be recording whenever we get done with play today.
12:48
I know we get a lot of questions on timing, so whenever play ends today, Wes and I will be recording, and it will be up as soon as possible. A labor of love. That's right.
12:56
We don't wanna give any indication to the, to the opposite of that. All right. And Matt Brown, I hope you're enjoying the Masters. [laughs] And Matt Brown is, today, this is his day. He is president of Augusta- Yeah...
13:05
and he said he's gonna follow Tiger around, for at least a little while. Yeah. 'Cause he fears it might be the last time. Tiger Woods, who has never missed a cut at the Masters as a professional golfer.
13:14
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is The Bear. He is, uh, known to you as such. The host of the Bear Bets podcast at Fox Sports, it's Chris Fallica, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Chris?
13:26
Uh, I, I'm doing well. I'm sit- I'm standing here in Atlanta right now in the, in the airport, unfortunately not going to Augusta, but I'm on, I'm on my way home.
13:33
I was, I meant to, I meant to say last time I was on with you, when I was in the Vegas airport, there's a big, like, billboard and sign for Bar Canada, and, and you, you weren't on it. Like- Yeah. [laughs]...
13:44
that's a, that's a huge miss in my, in my opinion. Like, like, you talk about a great promo for Bar Canada. It sh- it should be you a- and Kelly with the, uh, the Numbers Game crew there- Yeah...
13:53
pro- promoting Bar Canada. So might want, might want to get on the, the, the, uh, the promo and marketing people and the, uh, the, the Vegas Transportation Committee to really do a better job promoting Bar Canada.
14:03
Suggestion box. There you go. [laughs] Yeah, I guess they felt that the promotion of Bar Canada didn't need us, I guess, yeah? Yeah. What can you do? What can you do? It's a... There we go.
14:11
Chris Fallica always looking out for us. Hey, uh, where are you at? You're headed home. Would you like to tell people where you were? Yeah. Would you like to tell people what you were doing?
14:18
Yeah, yeah, you know, nothing, nothing major. Um, I was down in Miami the last couple of days. Met with some of the, uh, football coaches, which w- which was good to see on Wednesday.
14:27
And then yesterday there was a, uh, like the school, like the part of the, of, of, uh, sports management and such had a big, uh, like networking and panel and career advice type, type deal, and I was fortunate enough to be, uh, be a part of it with, uh, Bobby Marks, who...
14:42
N- NBA insider, and Mike Ryan, who, uh, heads up the, uh, Dan Le Batard Show. So it was fun.
14:46
And, uh, I, I like doing stuff like that because I, I was one, I was one of them once a- and, and I know you're just kind of looking for a break and looking for advice and figuring out how to, uh, to, to get into this racket.
14:58
So, uh, it, it was good to sit there and talk and tell stories and give advice and, and, uh, offer some assistance wherever I can. So it was fun to do. Good for you, man. Good for you. Um, let's talk Masters first.
15:09
There's always multiple sports with you, so we wanna get through all of these. Um, do you agree with me when I texted you yesterday, I'm like, I just, I just took Scheffler plus 240 in game.
15:16
"This tournament's over," I said. [laughs] Do you- Yeah, I, I- Do you agree with that generally?
15:22
Yeah, I, I think if you poll 10 people right now w- who's gonna win, you give them the leaderboard and you say, "Who's gonna win?"
15:29
Like, I would think nine of, nine of the 10 would probably say Scheffler, and I think the odds kind of, uh, dictate that, uh, w- where, where they are, and, uh, we, we'll see.
15:38
But I wouldn't expect Bryson DeChambeau to go out and gain, what, three and a half strokes on the field, uh, with his putter again today.
15:44
And, uh, Scottie got a huge break there on, on what was it, uh, 13, when he, uh, didn't go in the, uh, didn't go in the water and everybody thought he did, and he wound, he wound up making- Yeah...
15:52
making birdie, and that was a great time. But I, I would think, uh, uh, like the, the, the price obviously...
15:58
It was funny, I was texting with Humans the other day too, after I saw that he was, uh, Cam Smith, Zalatoris were a couple of guys that he had liked, uh, as had I. I go, "Boy, we're weighing these guys down."
16:08
And, and I said to him, I go, "The, the funny thing is that I think we're all maybe trying to be a little creative and just pick someone other than Scottie, 'cause we don't wanna take plus 450 on Scottie, and then we're gonna be sitting there on Sunday afternoon saying that, 'Well, n- now we know why he was plus 450, we just should have taken it.'"
16:25
But, uh, 54 holes to play, and certainly there are some, uh, Max Homa was a surprise.
16:29
That, that was, uh, one of the biggest surpr- I mean, as well as DeChambeau played, and he'd never played well at Augusta the last eight rounds or whatever, been terrible. Homa's been even worse, uh, in Augusta.
16:39
So to see him play well was a, uh, good sign. The only thing I got a chance to look at today was, uh,
16:46
just 'cause I was flying in the rounds where it wasn't finished, I, I did play Zalatoris over Justin Thomas in a head-to-head, and I think they both go off, uh, like 145 or something like that, so you still have time to, to, to get that in.
16:59
I mean, Zalatoris is someone who, uh, is well, is, heard as he's been.
17:05
If you look at his career at Augusta, I think with the n- the nine rounds that he's played, I, I think he's been inside, like, the top 15 after every single round. I mean, the guy just loves that golf course.
17:17
He gave a couple back on 17 and 18 yesterday, uh, to, to fall back to two under. I'll take it really ki- kind to be in this thing for a top five. But, uh, I, I like him over, uh, over Justin Thomas today.
17:28
I think it wa- it, like, it was, it was minus 110 both ways, so, uh, nothi- it sh- shouldn't be, uh, too much different than that, I would think.
17:34
Maybe, maybe you just answered this, but my last Masters question was going to be, if you had to bet someone right now to win the tournament not named Scottie Scheffler- [laughs]...
17:44
given the leaderboard, who would it be?
17:47
Yeah, it would, it would probably be Zalatoris, just 'cause he, he, he, if he, if he makes putts, and he did for the most part yesterday, he has the ability to, to reach those par fives in two and make eagle, like he did on 13, and just missed another eagle on 15.
18:00
He can, he can gain strokes on the field on those par fives. And, uh, he had an opportunity to do better.
18:06
So yeah, I think it probably would be, uh, Zach Taurus who's only five back at Bryson and four back of, uh, of Scheffler right now. All right.
18:13
We wanna do 60 seconds on each of these, Chris, 'cause I know you're at the airport, can't see the clock. Let's talk soccer. What did you bet this weekend?
18:20
Um, the only thing I'm going to bet, I, I did look at the schedule yesterday after Liverpool. Oh my God, that, that was a, uh, a gut punch yesterday losing 3-0 at home to, uh, Atlanta.
18:31
So they're, they're up against it and probably gonna be knocked out of, uh, Europa League. But, um, I, I'm gonna lay, I'm gonna lay two and a half with, uh, Man City against Luton.
18:40
I mean, City, City's in a spot now where, uh, I think they can see the potential to win the league.
18:45
Uh, they're gonna be looking up to make some goal differential up against both Arsenal and, uh, Liverpool, should they end in a tie with one of those teams, and I think Luton's the perfect op- two opportunity for them to, uh, to put up a crooked number per se.
18:57
So, uh, it's City minus two and a half against Luton. All right. UFL, you're following this and you're betting this. Yeah, no, I, I, I am. I, I, but I play- I played, um, I played St. Louis minus one against San Antonio.
19:12
San Antonio's 2-0, but they're really, i- it's miracle type 2-0, total, total fluke. They had that Brad Wing fake punt, uh, to an offensive lineman week one.
19:23
Last week they scored 12 points in the final 48 seconds to come back. I, I, it, it's kind of unsustainable. They're like 4 of 20 on third down this year.
19:32
Uh, the, the, the, the nu- the numbers do not back up the fact that they're 2-0. And I, and I think, uh, AJ McCarron, Marcel Ateman, a really good offense for St. Louis.
19:42
I, I think they'll, uh, they'll get the win, the win. And I know, uh, people probably are familiar, or maybe you're not a Birmingham, Birmingham Stallions two-time, uh, defending now spring football champion.
19:52
They've won nine games in a row, uh, dating back to last year.
19:55
They're laying seven against Memphis, but Memphis is a kind of a tricky matchup for them because, uh, if you look at Memphis' box scores, uh, they very easily also could be 2-0.
20:05
They were on the wrong side of that 64-yard field goal by Michigan week one. Um, that, that game, they controlled the ball for 39 minutes. Last week they controlled the ball for 36.
20:15
Like, they may do a good enough job keeping the ball out of Birmingham's hand to hang with them in that setting. All right, we got, uh, two minutes here.
20:24
NFL draft, I feel like, and I might be prisoner of the moment, but I feel like I have fewer bets right now, the grand total of one, than I did last year or any other year at this time.
20:35
What have you bet so far, and do you feel that way as well?
20:37
Yeah, I, I've bet more than one, but it's probably a result of, A, me being in Connecticut and not having access to whatever DraftKings and FanDuel have up right now.
20:48
But yeah, a lot, a lot of the, uh, the faraway places don't have as much up, uh, as they have in the past. I, I... The, the only thing that I would say right now that I have...
20:59
Well, there, there are two things right now that I have that probably are within the playable range still and, and haven't moved. I would look at the over six and a half wide receivers in the first round.
21:09
Uh, I got that at plus 139. It, it's probably a little less right now 'cause that since then we've had the Buffalo trade where now it looks like they may be in the market for a wide receiver.
21:20
So like, if you look at the mocks, like Ladd McConkey's moved into the back end of the first round in a lot.
21:26
Uh, my, my guys, Texas, kind of feel that both, uh, AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy are gonna go in the first round. So, uh, it gets up to seven pretty quickly i- if things break right.
21:36
And then the other, the other thing, you know, like the Giants to take a wide receiver a- and specifically Rome Odunze.
21:43
Uh, he's someone who they've been connected with, and I know, uh, that, that player team matchup was available out there in faraway places. It's somewhere around plus 375 or so, I think it was.
21:55
So, uh, tho- those are two things that are still kind of in the plus range that I would consider looking at.
21:59
And then, uh, I was having a conversation with a, a, rap- a very prominent, uh, ANG follower on, on Twitter, Trip Tepper, who, uh, twee- tweets the show a lot, and he's a really good, sharp handicapper in himself.
22:11
And, and, and he and I were going back and forth, and he's like, "Are we really sure that JJ McCarthy's gonna go in the top five?" And like, like, "Is this a Will Levis thing all over again?"
22:21
'Cause you can get JJ McCarthy at good plus money over five and a half. So, uh, that might be something else that, that Trip has talked me into. Chris, beautiful spot. Appreciate it as always, man. Safe travels.
22:33
Take care, take care, guys. I'm boarding now. Be well. I'll listen on the flight home. [laughs] Chris Velika, boarding. Seems to know something about that Giants Rome Odunze thing, by the way. It's a man in the know.
22:43
I would read between the lines on that. Coming back, instant offense with John Lagassa next on a Numbers Game at Vsain, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on Vsain, the sports betting network.
22:54
An action-packed fight card has taken over Las Vegas this weekend for UFC 300.
22:59
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23:10
Download the app and use promo code VSAIN when you sign up. DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is your skill. Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. I do mean that, uh, sincerely.
23:22
This is from, uh, Colin Murphy.
23:24
Colin Murphy said, "If Odunze is going to the G-Men," which is what Velika just told us, that he, uh, thinks it's a good bet at a juicy plus 340, "I have heard several compelling cases for the Titans to go with a wide receiver, and Malik Nabers to go seventh is a very juicy 15 to 1 at certain spots."
23:44
So let me just, uh, let me just, uh, address that, Colin. The only bet that I made is the Jaguars to pick a cornerback, cornerback first. Got it at even money, plus 100.
23:54
The other bet that I was thinking of making that very same day was the Titans to draft a wide receiver with their first pick.
24:00
But as I was thinking about betting it, I then thought to myself, "Okay, of all the positions this team needs- Why would they draft a wide- Like, I get that there's buzz. I'm not disagreeing with you that there's buzz.
24:12
Right, right. There is, there is buzz. There is buzz- I've heard the same, yeah... to find that whatever it is. But, like, they have DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley.
24:19
Yeah, Hopkins, who they brought in last year, Ridley this year. And then- Treyvon Burks, right. Uh, not to mention, by the way, um, uh, my man with the, uh, with the two names. Westbrook-Akine. Westbrook-Akine, right?
24:34
Of all the positions, isn't that the last position they should be drafting? I, I would sure think so, Gil. 'Cause they got, they have needs at offensive tackle, defensive line, linebacker, everywhere else.
24:45
They're gonna draft a wide out? I'd be a little surprised. But I, again, w- I've heard, I've heard the same buzz. I've heard the same buzz. So I, I thought about it because I heard the same thing.
24:54
I'm like, "Well, it's a number and everybody's talking about it. It must be true." And then I'm like, "This doesn't make any sense." Yeah. It was like- But Neighbors I bet fifth overall.
25:01
I bet, that is one of the bets I have, is for him to go fifth overall to the Char- Yeah, the Chargers... yeah, the Chargers. I mean, the, that's technically fifth overall. Right.
25:08
So maybe things happen, but Chargers, who just traded away wide receivers, right? [laughs] Yeah.
25:13
All right, ladies and gentlemen, uh, we, uh, hemmed and hawed about, uh, Masters pre-flop bets for, uh, the better part of a week. And, uh, as it turns out, Paul Carr might be smarter than all of us.
25:24
Paul Carr joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
25:26
He's from True Media Networks and of course, the host of the Expected Value podcast from Topeka, Kansas, not dead center middle of the country, couple hundred miles away from dead center, should be pointed out, as we learned last week.
25:38
How you doing, Paulie? I'm good. Bryson DeChambeau first-round leader plus 1800, cash that. What, this golf betting's hard or something? [laughs] But I think there's some betting wisdom.
25:49
So we, y- listen, because of the nature that we have content, we must fill the content, we must speak about these things. Sure. You know, sometimes we're right, sometimes we're not.
25:58
Um, hopefully we're more right than we're wrong. You, though, were smart where you... How long into the tournament yesterday did it take for you to bet DeChambeau? Uh, one hole.
26:10
He birdied one, and, you know, I wanted something on the first round. So just kind like, "Well, maybe it's one of those days." W- remember the
26:18
Bryson DeChambeau of, you know, a few years ago who could just, like, torch any course- Yes... on the day? Yes. So it was kind of like, "Yeah, well, maybe it's his day. Let's throw a little bit on that."
26:27
Well, so, no, there's gonna be people listening to this who are like, "Oh, he just got lucky. How did he know he was gonna go seven under?" Uh, kind of. Okay, kind of, but not really.
26:35
Because it's the equivalent of any in-game wager, right? You had one hole, so he was, he was one under. You had that stroke already in your favor. Right. And because of just what you said, right?
26:45
Because we remember a time not long ago at all where we like, "Oh, this dude could absolutely destroy this course," that with that little nudge- Right...
26:58
might have just been a m- i- is more of a plus EV bet than anything we discussed outside of Scheffler. Kind of a Malcolm Gladwell blink sort of thing. Yes. You know? It just, y- it's your gut reaction.
27:10
There's some history, there's something behind it. You know, it's not just out of nowhere. It's a guy who has shown the capability of doing this before. Yeah.
27:17
So again, I'm not gonna say this was, like, a brilliant handicap- Right [laughs]... or anything like that. But there's some wisdom in it. But it's- Yes... there's worse ways to do things.
27:24
That's a- Let's say it that way... that's a beautiful way of putting it. If, for people who would, who would crap on that, there are worse ways to do things, for sure. And please hit me up on Twitter.
27:32
If you're, if you're the guy who's been the Bryson DeChambeau fan who's been having to hide- For the whole week... for, like, for- Yeah... for, like, four years now, like, let, let me know. [laughs] I told you.
27:39
I was thinking about you y- all day yesterday. [laughs] I told you it would come. Uh, okay. Now, on the flip side, Paul, you were on a bit of a tear in the old soccer, and then the Champions League hit us this week.
27:51
What, what, what ha- happened there? Right. [laughs] It's funny. The previous round, like, the under, seven out of eight unders hit in the first legs, so it seemed like that was kind of the trend.
27:59
And it wasn't just this year. The last few years had kind of been that way. So I was under heavy in the first rounds this week, and I think all the overs hit. So 0 for 3 midweek on Champions League.
28:10
We'll reevaluate, put ourselves back together, and come back next week looking to do better. Yeah. The, the, the total specifically, right? That was the one, under two and a half. It was, like, two to one in the blink.
28:20
Right. I was like, "Oh my God." Right. I, I missed... I had a horribly scheduled dentist appointment and missed the first half. [laughs] So come back- Yeah... check my phone, and there's, like, 112 goals.
28:29
And I was like, "Oh, well, there we go." I hope the dental work went okay. What'd you get done there, Paul? Well, it went much better than the bets. Yeah. Just a routine checkup. Okay. All right.
28:37
Premier League, back to your bread and butter this weekend. Right. Uh, you got a couple tomorrow. You got one on Sunday. Let's start with tomorrow, and I see a total right out of the chute. Total out of the chute.
28:47
We're at the point in this Premier League season where if you can get over two and a half on pretty much any game and anywhere close to even money, I think I would jump on it, so that's what I'm doing here.
28:56
This is really the lowest scoring game of the week from the projections. Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton, over two and a half. I got it -120. It's probably closer to -130 most places now, which I think is still okay.
29:08
Again, we've talked a little bit about how this Premier League season is just higher scoring for a variety of reasons, on average about 10 more goals per team this season. Amazing. Amazing.
29:16
So o- over two and a half close to even money, you just gotta jump on, I think. Uh, you got a couple teams. You know, Forest is fighting to stay out of relegation.
29:23
Chris Wood is a veteran guy who's scored in four straight games. He's kind of filling in for some injuries for Forest. Uh, Wolverhampton only has a couple away shutouts all season.
29:32
They're not as good defensively or, uh, as intentional about their defense as they have been the last couple years. Uh, they also score in about three-quarters of their road games.
29:41
So I think we get, you know, three goals one way or the other in this game. Forest, Wolverhampton over two and a half, -120 was my price. What'd you get there, Paul? A cleaning, a whitening, a root canal, a cavity?
29:51
What happened there? Just a routine checkup. Okay. All good. All right. Got good teeth. No cavities yet in my life, so still got that going for me. For your life? That's true. Never even as a kid? Yeah. Nope. Nothing.
30:01
Oh, Paul, Paul, you're, I'm, I'm in that group, too. I'm in that group. All right. I've never had one. Nobody ever believes me. I think you're both due, as they say. [laughs] You're both due. Yeah I, I brag about it.
30:11
[laughs] I brag about it enough that I'm past the point of jinxing it. [laughs] But yeah, whenever it happens, I'm gonna get a lot of people who are gonna be- He brags about it... yeah, happy about it.
30:18
[laughs] All right. Uh, ooh, I like it when you have a draw. You have a draw on Saturday too, tomorrow. You know I love a draw when it gets around plus 300.
30:25
This one's not quite there, but I like Bournemouth, Manchester United at plus 290. Uh, United's in sixth, Bournemouth's in 12th, but Mor- Bournemouth's underlying numbers are actually better this season.
30:35
United is just such a, a weird team. They're obviously a big name, so, you know, they get a little bit of public money in that sense. But they've given up the second-most shots in the league this season.
30:45
The only team to give up more is last place Sheffield United. And United's just been really lucky on the whole. You know, they got a 2-2 draw against Liverpool last week.
30:53
They scored on their first shot of the game, which came from midfield, 'cause the keeper was out. Uh, ended up getting out-shot 28 to nine, but pulled out a draw. Week before, they lost 4-3 to Chelsea.
31:03
Should've lost that one. Could've won it, though, 'cause they were up late. They drew at Brentford when they were out-shot 31 to 11. So just a lot of results going United's way.
31:10
I don't think they're as good as their record or their standings are. Uh, and Bournemouth's been solid at home. They've won three straight there.
31:16
They're eighth in the standings since the new year, and even a little bit better in expected goal difference.
31:21
They're playing like a solid mid-table team, which is wild for a team that probably should've been relegated once or twice in recent years. So I like the draw.
31:28
I think Bournemouth's just a little bit better, but they're at home. United's got that United luck going for them, so plus 290 on the draw.
31:35
Yeah, Man U a distant sixth in the, uh, on the Premier League table, and, uh, Bournemouth 12th, right in the, uh, middle of it all. Um, okay.
31:44
Speaking of that Man U, Liverpool match from last week, uh, or from this past week. Here's Sunday, Liverpool is taking on Crystal Palace. Now at the top of the Premier League table- Yeah...
31:53
Arsenal and Liverpool, 71 points each, with seven games to play, seven matches to play. Man City one point behind them, also with seven matches to play. Uh, Liverpool taking on Crystal Palace here. Yeah, so this'll be...
32:10
I like the over here. I think there's gonna be goals one way or the other. Liverpool obviously trying not to blink again. Uh, so over three and a half at even money is the price I got.
32:18
Nine of Liverpool's last 11 games have had four or more goals. Uh, again, they're great offensively. Their defense is, is okay, not great. And Palace is decent defensively, but not against good teams.
32:29
Gave up four to Man City, three to Tottenham, uh, three to Chelsea, five to Arsenal. Uh, they do tend to score. They scored in 14 of their last 16 games. So this feels a lot like a 3-1 Liverpool type of game to me.
32:40
I think we're gonna get goals regardless, so over three and a half at even money on Sunday. All right, Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton, over two and a half goals tomorrow.
32:47
Bournemouth, Manchester United, the draw at plus 290. Shop around for that price. That's tomorrow. And then Sunday, Liverpool, Crystal Palace, over three and a half goals at even money.
32:57
From Paul Carr @paulcarr on Twitter, C-A-R-R, the Expected Value podcast. Thank you, Paulie, and congratulations on DeChambeau. Yeah. Have a good weekend. You too. Paul Carr from Topeka, Kansas, the heartland.
33:11
Uh, you know what I wanna do? Before we talk to Lou about UFC, before we talk to, uh, Jason about Shohei and beyond, we gotta talk about this guy, Michael Pena from The Ringer, who's an NBA awards voter.
33:22
He has revealed everything, all his thoughts on his official ballot. We shall review next on a Numbers Game at V- the Sports Betting Network.
33:33
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. Don't forget to check out our new, vamped, revamped website at vsin.com.
33:49
Uh, everything on there that you could possibly imagine. Today, front and center, mid-season college baseball odds and futures from Aaron Moore. How about that? All right. I like it.
34:00
Yeah, you want some college baseball, that's probably the only place you can go on Earth, really. Yeah. Vsin.com. Not to mention everything, uh, on the Masters, all of our Cold Masters second round predictions.
34:10
Uh, EPL, obviously the Premier League, Monte Carlo tennis, all of it. Michael Lombardi on Trevor Lawrence, of course. Vsin.com, check it out.
34:19
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides, it's all there. Did you catch, uh, who was it? Uh, Sebastian Korda got robbed or something at Monte Carlo? Oh, I didn't see it.
34:29
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, no, I didn't see it. Yeah. Like, uh, oh, I'll pull up the actual story so I get- Wow... the facts straight, but I think he got a bunch of stuff stolen from his room or something. Oh, man. Can I...
34:38
Okay, can I ask one question before we get to Lou? 'Cause I wanna get to UFC 300. Aloud. Uh, the wind is- Yeah, it's gonna be bad-... pretty bad... this afternoon. Yeah, it is going to be...
34:46
We were talking about it during a break. Have, have- Glad you brought it back up... have we reached the point where, like, recommending anything is just ridiculous at this point with the wind?
34:54
It, it, it might be tough today. It might be really tough. Yeah. You have... Emiliano Grillo right now in his second round is seven over par through nine holes. [laughs] Jesus. There are, like, there are plenty, uh...
35:05
It's only gonna get worse this afternoon, too. Actually, these are not, it's not too horrible out there yet. The best rounds going right now are Pavon and Cameron Young, both two under through four.
35:17
Adam Schenk also two under. That's as good as you're seeing, though, right now on the, on the s- uh, leaderboard. All right. Let's talk some UFC 300 with one of our favorites, one of the nicest guys in the biz.
35:27
Uh, it's Lou Finoccaro, everybody, VSiN contributor. You can follow him on Twitter @gamblou. That's G-A-M-B Lou. And he comes to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Lou, good to see you, man.
35:39
And literally as I said that, we went to, uh- [laughs] We went to [laughs] went to the bars. We were talking to Lou the entire break. The whole time. Just drops. Right to the bars.
35:48
[laughs] Well, it's an exciting intro, ladies and gentlemen. Uh, we'll try to work on getting Lou back. Uh- I am, I am excited for this fight card. I, I, I haven't bet anything.
35:56
I'm so wrapped up with Masters and NBA, like- You and I are very, very open about- Yeah... we're, we're not as big UFC guys as others are.
36:04
But this 13 fights deep, and I was saying yesterday, I read a whole thing about, like, ranking them in terms of interest The, the last is Jessica Andrade, and, and that's a g- like, a great fight still, and she's, like, ranked as the last of the 13- Yeah...
36:19
in terms of, like, interest. But the main event, which Lou has thoughts on, um, Pereira and Hill, that's not even considered the best fight.
36:28
It's the, it's the Gaethje-Holloway fight, which is for the, uh, BAD, uh, title. That's the one that is the, uh, the marquee matchup of all of it. So what Jordan was saying yesterday was it's a, it's an outstanding card.
36:42
It might lack star power to some, but not to the diehard, um, who is, uh, just going up and down this card for sure. So, um- But there's so many names on there, though, like of...
36:55
Y- you know, so many names that were pandemic stars and stuff like that- Oh, for sure... you know, that all... When everybody was watching UFC 'cause it was the only thing going on. Pandemic stars is so true.
37:07
Such a thing. Who was your favorite pandemic star? There were so many of them. Oh, man, there's, uh, uh, Peter Yan. Peter Yan. Peter Yan. Peter Yan was a pandemic star.
37:16
Was Peter Yan the one that was in the w- Was he the guy that was in a fight where he clearly lost and they gave it to him? I, yes, I believe so. Yes. That's how we remember him? I, I believe so. Yeah.
37:24
I think that was a robbery win I had on a bet one time with him, yep. Yeah. I believe you, I believe you are, uh, remembering that exactly right. Let's, uh... I'll tell you what I'll do here.
37:33
I'll give you the, I'll give you the fights on the early prelims and the prelims that Lou likes. Shall we do it that way? Sure, that works.
37:41
All right, let's do it that way, and then we, and then when we get him, we can... he can talk about the, uh, the main and then the, uh, the BAD, the BMF title fight. Uh, he likes... Let's go to the, uh...
37:51
I'm gonna do this off the cuff here. Let's go to the early prelims. Early prelims, he likes, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo. Bobby Green. Bobby Green -185.
38:06
Bobby Green is going up against Miller in this one. Miller, I think, is the guy, if I'm not mistaken, he is the fighter that was in UFC 100 and UFC 200, and he, and he was like, "I wanna be in UFC 300."
38:19
He's the only guy that was in both 100 and 200. And so, uh, Lou is, uh, fading Miller on this. He's going with, uh, Green. Do we have Lou? Lou Finicaro, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive g- uh, guest line.
38:29
Sorry about that, Lou. Hope you're okay. I'm sorry about that, too, doggone it. I don't know what happened with my Skype, but, uh, the, your producers were, uh, great enough to get me on the phone. My apologies.
38:44
That's okay. And, and let's just start. I, I w- I was about to give your thoughts on early prelims and prelims, so let's start with Bobby Green -185.
38:51
Am I correct that Miller is the guy that fought in both UFC 100 and 200? Yes. 40-year-old guy, great experience, extremely well-rounded. This is the fourth time these guys were scheduled to fight.
39:05
Miller's expressed disappointment in Green for some of those misses.
39:10
Uh, Green took one of those fight misses on, like, seven or eight days notice, lost 30 pounds, went to the hospital, and now Green has a chip for Miller on this fight.
39:21
Uh, even though Miller's 40, Green's 37, but Green is faster, quicker, more athletic, much more violent, though he definitely will have an advantage striking.
39:31
And while most people will give Miller the advantage on the ground, I will not. Bobby Green's wrestling's tremendously underrated, and he's every bit the favorite that he's lined at currently.
39:44
All right, let's do 30 seconds on these next three, 'cause I wanna get to the two big ones, but you are fading Jessica Andrade with Marina Rodriguez here. Yes, I am.
39:53
I think, uh, Andrade, the key to this handicap, Gil, is that this is Andrade's sixth fight in 15 months. She's gone through a divorce. She's had to pay for it herself. She needs the money.
40:06
I think she's compromising herself against a much longer striker in this matchup who's well-matched against her. Aha, the divorce fade, Kelly. The divorce fade. Uh, you like Calvin Kattar as a dog against Sterling. Yes.
40:21
Kattar opened +100. Excuse me, Kattar opened -120, and now you can catch him +135 to 155 depending on where you shop.
40:33
He is the legitimate 145-pound athlete, while Sterling moving up in weight from 135 really needs to try and wrestle.
40:42
He'll be outmatched on the feet by a deft striker in, uh, Kattar, and I really, uh, favor Kattar here in a strong performance.
40:52
All right, and the last prelim we'll discuss, the light heavyweight, the c- most closely lined of bout of the night. Uh, you like Jiri Prochazka against Rakic here.
41:01
Yeah, Jiri has been the more active fighter, and he's gonna have a little bit of size on Rakic. Rakic blew out a leg two years ago against Jan Blachowicz, and he's coming back after a long time of being inactive.
41:18
I don't believe in ring rust, but this is a long time to be away. Rakic relies on ground control time.
41:25
32% of his fights have been in ground control, and I think Jiri's too big and too strong for him to get to the ground, and for that reason, I like Jiri Prochazka in this fight.
41:36
All right, what most consider the best fight of the night for the BMF title, uh, Gaethje and Holloway. Your thoughts?
41:45
A train wreck r- waiting to happen is Gaethje, and Holloway is a pure warrior willing to take on anyone.
41:52
His first foray into 155, he fought Poirier about three or four years ago and put the weight on irresponsibly and took the fight with too short a notice. This time he's learned. He's put the weight on correctly.
42:05
He's chiseled and ready to go. Gaethje, meanwhile, the legitimate pedigreed 155-pounder. This is- Speed and precision, Holloway, against power and aggression, Gaethje.
42:19
And I fully believe that even though this is five rounds, it exceeds the total and goes all the way to decision, where perhaps Gaethje wins a close decision based on the fact that the judges are trying to rule based on damage, and Gaethje has the power.
42:36
Your favorite n- your favorite fight of the night, the one you're most looking forward to? Will be the main event, Pereira versus Hill. And, and this handicap is pretty simple for me, Gil.
42:48
Uh, Pereira is a very powerful striker, and he's a monster at 205. The fact that he fought at 185 is a miracle.
42:57
Uh, and really foundational to his fight game is the fact that of all his striking, 23% of his damaging blows come from leg kicks.
43:08
In Jamal Hill, we have a fighter that was playing basketball last July and ruptured his Achilles tendon. Ooh.
43:15
He's been sitting on the shelf trying to recover from a ruptured Achilles tendon, which I believe you know all about.
43:22
And, uh, you, you couple that with the fact that he was targeting UFC 301 at the end of May to make his return.
43:29
But because the UFC was struggling to try and find headliners for this event, and there's plenty of money and fame and notoriety involved with this event, Hill decided to accept the main event challenge, take on Pereira with only a six-week camp coming off of a ruptured Achilles eight months after he injured it.
43:51
I believe fully that Hill is not 100%, and it would be irresponsible of me to suggest anyone bet Hill. I really think Pereira is a bargain in this spot. Lou, sorry it was the truncated version, but we love you.
44:07
Thank you so much for coming on. Thanks for having me, you guys. Have a great, uh, UFC 300, everybody. You too. Lou Finnecaro at Gamblu.
44:15
Once again, in ascending order from the early prelims to the main event, he's on Bobby Green, Marina Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar, Jiri Prochazka.
44:23
He liked Gaethje and Holloway to go to decision, and Alex Pereira in the main event. Kelly will have them all at visa.com/bets. Jason Weingarten next.
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