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Apr 13, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | April 13, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | April 13, 2026
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45:08
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin in the hizzy on this Monday. How are you, sir?
0:22
Yes, sir. Doing good, doing good. Monday after the Masters. How was your Masters? It was good. It was good. Could've been great, but it was good. [laughs] Winning tournament. Oh, good. Good for you. Yeah.
0:32
Um, we will discuss Rory McIlroy's one stroke lead, uh, one stroke win, I should say, over Scottie Scheffler here momentarily.
0:39
Luke Swain will join us this hour to discuss the National Football League draft, which is happening in 10 days. Pumped. Let's get this going, Gil. Do you, do you feel like we, and again, it's the compressed schedule.
0:53
Yes. We just haven't talked about this nearly the same amount as we have in previous years. Not at all. It's just very strange. Completely on the same page as you.
1:00
Yes, it's crazy that this is next week already, 'cause you and I have seemingly barely talked about it. Barely talked about it.
1:05
And we- and, uh, Luke will give us, hopefully, some context and some thoughts on how to bet this coming up. Luke will also hopefully join me for the, uh, Beating the Book draft podcast a little later this week.
1:15
Wes Reynolds on the Masters, Greg Peterson, his Major League Baseball card today, and Adam Burke, all his plays in Major League Baseball as well.
1:23
Uh, and we have to talk about, of course, now that the NBA play-in and the playoffs have been finally set in stone, we gotta talk about that. And one final requiem for the tanking. Can we do that as well today?
1:35
Yeah, man. Last day we get to talk about it, or have to talk about it. I just pulled up Luke's page real quick, just to, for those who aren't familiar with Vegas Refund and Luke Swain.
1:46
Uh, past draft results, last year, 11 and one for- 10 units... it's pretty good. It's pretty good. The year before that, 13 and two for over 10 units. [laughs] That's adequate.
1:56
You know, he actually, he actually had a small loser in 2023. Oh. But then, uh, 2022- That was-... 20 and four, 16 units. 2023 was the year we all finally had a losing season after, like- I think you're right...
2:08
years and years of winning- Yeah... I think was the story. Well, congratulations if you had, if you had Rory McIlroy winning the 90th Masters in back to back. Do we have that audio, by the way, ready to go? Mm-hmm.
2:18
We do, yes. This is, uh, you know- Give these guys a minute... I asked, uh, what, what'd you say? I said, uh, let's give them a couple seconds to get everything- Give a couple seconds... they should be good, yeah. Okay.
2:24
Um, 'cause I asked a couple guests last week, one namely Wes Reynolds on this show, and then Matt Brown on, uh, on, uh, the Beating the Book podcast, because no one was really talking about Rory, right?
2:36
And I was, and I just sort of was like, "Hey, uh, are we missing something?" Rory ends up winning it, back to back Masters, the 90th Masters in the books.
2:44
Rory wins it 12 under, one stroke win over Scottie Scheffler, who was a lurker all day yesterday, was saving pars left and right.
2:54
Um, was just a par fest until the last four holes, when Scottie just all of a sudden exploded, birdie on 15, birdie on 16, an inch away from a birdie on 17. Let's remember that inch. It is a game of inches.
3:10
But more than anything, that, that was the one that was sort of most recent in our mind.
3:14
Here is, by the way, when I asked Matt Brown on the Beating the Book podcast, which you were kind enough to do with me, about the 90th Masters, just what about the defending champion,
3:23
about Rory getting the monkey off his back, winning the Masters, finally getting the long-awaited career slam, which that's all we talked about with him until he finally won it.
3:33
Is there anybody who's out there going, "Well, he's got the monkey off his back now, he can just play freely. Why shouldn't I bet Rory again?" To that you would say what? I, I would, I would say, sure.
3:45
I mean, he's o- our, uh, top five golfer in the world.
3:48
Any of these du- if you tell me that Rory, uh, we're talking on Monday, a, a week from now, and Rory wins the tournament, I'd be like, "Well yeah, it's freaking Rory McIlroy."
3:56
You know, you know, and of course he won the tournament. He's, he's awesome golfer. You know? So- Yeah... I would not talk anybody off playing Rory. He fits the course perfectly.
4:02
Same, all the reasons we talked about last year, same type of stuff here. If you wanna be a little bit worried about some injury stuff going on with all of that, but
4:11
I imagine he's, gets the very best of the very best treatment and the very best of the very best stuff to make sure that he's going to be able to perform optimally. And yeah, that, and that was the response, by the way.
4:21
That kind of response was what I got from everybody who I asked this question of, and yet I don't really think many people bet him- Yeah... in the end. Oh, I mean, I kept saying last week too, right?
4:30
It was like, "Well, let me see if this price drifts any more." Yeah. Let me see. And then there was some bu- there was a buyback point, you know, like, probably like on Tuesday, Wednesday, but then I missed it, you know?
4:38
It was, I was hoping to see a 15 or a 16. Never happened. And he, and he was like 11.50, plus 11.50, something like that. He, like, you know what, I know we got a couple tweets about this over the weekend too.
4:47
It's just, it's, it's, it, it, look, no excuses. Like, we, we t- we, we talked about him last week. But the, you know, what's tough with golf, with tennis, with, with a lot of these sports, injuries. You don't know.
4:59
You don't really know what's going on with these guys- Yeah... 'cause they're not required to tell you anything. Good for, good for Rory. C- again, good for you if you were a Rory backer. Mm-hmm.
5:07
I, I do think, you know, down the stretch of that tournament yesterday, that they didn't do a great job.
5:12
And by the way, generally they do a great job on the, on the coverage of this tournament, and, and golf in general on CBS.
5:17
But I didn't think they did a great job yesterday of just highlighting the amazing turnaround within that final round. Oh, I'm, I'm totally with you. Totally with you.
5:26
Because, because they just kind of glossed over the fact, right, that earlier in that round, remember on four, Rory missed a par putt left to drop to, to 11 under, which at that point, um, was one back of Cam- Cameron Young.
5:42
Then the comeback putt for bogey, remember he gagged that too- Mm-hmm... to drop to 10 under, two back of Young. Definitely wasn't off my couch clapping, yep. Yeah. So he g- he got to three back at one point. Mm-hmm.
5:54
And then Cam Young started messing up. Rory started, Rory birdied seven. Uh, but then you remember Justin Rose went on his little birdie tear. Right?
6:03
Where he, he birdied nine to get to 12 under, a two-stroke lead over McIlroy at, [laughs] at that point.
6:09
So you're about to round the, uh, uh, you know, uh, at least in terms of Rose was around to b- uh, to go to the back nine. McIlroy then birdied p- uh, the par five eight to get to 11 under, one back of Rose.
6:21
And then remember he gagged. Rory did a chip shot putt at nine for birdie to remain one back. So I just... By the end of the tournament where Rory was winning it with cushion, right?
6:32
And I know one stroke un- ultimately isn't a cushion, but Rory had a two-stroke lead- Yes... or more- Yes...
6:37
until the very end when he, when just when he got the bogey at 18 and he ends up winning cosmetically by one stroke.
6:43
But I just felt like down the stretch, I'm glad you agree with me, 'cause I thought I was the only one thinking this, where it's just like y- y'all aren't making a big enough deal about how this tournament changed, uh, like completely.
6:54
Well, well, it, it, so it's- It's that... within that day. It's, it's multiple things to me. It's absolutely that. Uh, not a big enough deal [laughs] was made of that. And then also, like nice, nice win, Rory.
7:05
Really don't wanna take anything away, but like there was a lot of chasers on Sunday that somehow, that either fell apart- Oh, yeah... just couldn't get back. They're like- Yeah...
7:14
like, like you just said, the fact that we went to 18 and this was over, like is almost shocking. Like, uh- Yep...
7:20
with how many guys were right there and then just couldn't get one more birdie to drop and put some pressure on him. Um, to your point, just sort of a timeline.
7:30
Rory birdied 12 to go to 12 under, two ahead of Rose, Young, Hud- uh, Hatton, and Henley at that point. Uh, Rose with an eagle putt at 13. This was the b- Mm-hmm... to me, this was the big thing.
7:40
Rose had the, to your point, Rose had an eagle putt at 13. He three-putted it to stay at 10 under. Just, like that's wild. It's wild. And they went into commercial. I don't know if you remember this.
7:50
They went into commercial, and I c- it wasn't Nantz, uh, who was doing the, uh, the, the lead into the commercial. Colt Nost. He did one. He did an extended toss to commercial. I don't know- Who, who did?
7:59
Colt Nost did on one. Maybe it was him. Yeah. 'Cause he, he immediately said, "Rory destined to win his second Masters." This is like by hole 11 or 12 after, after Rose blew that. Yeah. Rory immediately birdied the...
8:10
But by the way, Schef- Scheffler got his first birdie after 11 straight pars at, at, uh, at 15, an improbable birdie based on some of the birdie opportunities he had prior to that.
8:23
But Rory immediately birdied 13 to go to 13 under, three ahead of the field, including Scheffler at that point. Um- But like think about that, like the, the, every one of these guys we could talk about.
8:31
But like Scottie just goes quiet in the mid- Oh, uh, yes... in the middle of the tournament. Yes. You know? Like if he gets hot, if he stayed hot or e- he gets another birdie or two, he's right there.
8:40
Uh, and then, you know, Scheffler missed the birdie by an inch at 17, which I ment- mentioned. Even with breaks, right?
8:46
Rose got a massive break when he went way right on a tee shot at 17 that bounced back in the fairway. Cameron Young the entire- Again... the entire weekend was littered with bouncing off trees.
8:57
[laughs] The chair I wish I would get those breaks. Off the chair, back onto the green. It was- Like it was amazing that he was even in this, let's be honest.
9:04
Uh, uh, the final count was one chair and three trees, I believe. Yes, one chair and three trees. But, uh, but to your point, everybody was getting breaks, and they still couldn't, right?
9:11
Rory, Rory on the other hand, he, he did have his scare, flirted with the water- Yeah... on the third shot at 15, but he got it over. He parred, stayed two up.
9:19
He only needed, and, and the announcer pointed this out, uh, starting at 16, he only needed five more good swings up two to win the tournament. Mm-hmm.
9:28
And I don't know, you know, beautiful use of the green on the second shot at 16, maintained his, uh, his two-stroke lead. Rory went right and short of the green on approach at 17. He still parred that.
9:38
And then Rory up two at 18. He goes so far right he can go up the 10th fairway. Instead goes over a tree into the green side bunker, ball only partially plugged.
9:46
You know, a lot of lu- you gotta have some luck to win a tournament, not that you're not playing great besides that. Pitched out, got on the green, only needed a two putt, did just that. In at 12 under.
9:54
Beats Scheffler by a stroke. Back-to-back Masters. He joins the list, right, of Nicklaus, Faldo, Eldrick Woods, and now Rory McIlroy. Yeah. The only back-to-back Masters winners.
10:07
And Nantz's call, by the way, when he sinks the, uh, the final putt, "Rory is a rare repeat winner at Augusta." He really dug deep for that one. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, man, I, g- it's awesome to watch.
10:19
I mean, it was great tournament, was fun. I don't, like, you know, if we, we, we were talking about this Rory lead after round two. If you had told me- Oh, yeah...
10:27
I mean, if you had told me that he goes even par on the weekend, I'm like, "He not winning. He's not win-" like cool six-shot lead. He's not winning if he goes to even par.
10:34
How about, how about if I had told, how about if I had told you after the 15th hole on Friday for Scheffler, if I said to you, "He's never going to have- Yeah...
10:41
a bogey for the rest of this tournament," you'd be like, "Oh, I'd sign up for that," even though, even though he was 12 back, you know, heading into the weekend. So you know what? You know what?
10:49
The, the inside, this is, like I think we'd get a lot of questions about it. Maybe people find this interesting, maybe not, right? How are you, how are you live betting a golf tournament, right? I had my bets before.
10:58
I was talking about a- all week kind of if there was, for whatever reason, more of a drift on Rory, more of a drift on Scheffler, maybe I'd get in, otherwise I was gonna save something for live, right?
11:07
So Scheffler on that run on Saturday, I join you, pick up a nice Scheffler ticket at like 12 to 1. But then Sunday, Cam Young takes that two-shot lead, right? Mm-hmm.
11:18
I'm like, "This should be a buy point for me on Rory." But at that point you've got so much laid out already, I'm like, "I can't buy in here at this price on Rory."
11:24
So you end up, I end up not having a winner on Rory, but it was a nice tournament. Yeah. I didn't do anything live. I, I had, uh, what'd I get? I got the dead heat on Gotterup for debut time. Yeah, man.
11:34
Hit the Zach Johnson top senior. Thank you, Chris Falica. The dead heat on the, uh, low round on Thursday, uh, Thur- on, uh, Saturday with Scheffler. But for me, a net loser- Dude... despite all that.
11:44
And Henley, I had Henley out of nowhere in the picture. Woo. Dude, imagine if he had won this. Oh. Let's talk some NBA next on The Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge.
11:53
That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you.
12:03
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12:10
Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:25
Numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin. Uh, don't forget about the wonderful VSiN Pro intro offer that's being offered right now.
12:37
VSiN's intro offer, sign up now for as little as 9.99. Uh, it's the NBA play-in tournament that tips off tomorrow, NHL regular season coming down to the wire, playoff spots still up for grabs.
12:48
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12:50
VSiN Pro gives you daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop tools and matchup analysis, plus 24/7 video and show replays on the VSiN Watch app so you're ready before the postseason begins.
13:00
Get ahead of the action now. Start today for just 9.99 or save 50% with an annual subscription. Visit vsin.com/subscribe. That's vsin.com/subscribe. /subscribe. There. Now I would mess that up. Um, that's another one.
13:15
I meant to bring this up last week. Like, does the, is the NHL regular season always go a week longer than the NBA? [laughs] I thought you and the crack ANG investigation team were on that.
13:24
Someone, someone's really screwing, uh, screwing us up with this schedule this year, I'll tell you that, man. Well, they had the Olympics. Oh, okay. That one makes sense. They had the Olympics. The- Got it...
13:33
the NHL season will, uh, it- Good answer. That makes sense. Okay. You, so that's the only answer you wanted? Well, that's, I think it's, it's all you need, right? Okay. That's why it's longer. Yeah.
13:42
But I mean, the NHL season is coming to a close this week. Mm-hmm. The regular season. It's not that far behind. Uh, we get tweets beating the book. Always appreciate, uh, the feedback from everybody. Cheap prop bets.
13:52
"Listening to you guys from Portugal this week. I can't bet this week." That's it, that's the tweet. He's in Portugal, so he can't bet. Hmm. Thanks for listening though, still. Yeah. We appreciate that.
14:03
Uh, Colin Murphy, "I am not one to bash the announcers, but I could help, I couldn't help but notice that on every hole, Nantz and Immelman would say something about this hole suits Rory's eye, or Rory loves the way this hole [laughs] sets up, and then he would miss the fairway."
14:18
That's a great call, too. They were, it did feel like it was predetermined, right, like in their heads, that Rory was winning this thing from an, from way...
14:29
Like I said, they went into commercial after 12, and they're like, "Yeah, Rory poised to win," or whatever. Yeah. You know, destined to win, uh, back to it, I'm like, "Wait, there's six holes left." And then
14:39
acted like he didn't trail when he, when he was winning at the end, coasting in, acted like he wasn't down three strokes to Young earlier and two strokes to Rose at the turn. I'm with you. I'm with you.
14:49
It's just very strange. That was the only strange part, but it, but did kind of loom over.
14:53
Uh, Brian Young, "Rory winning was cool, but the highlight of yesterday was Sergio melting down and then carrying Jon Rahm's bag down the fairway. Keep up the great work, gents."
15:01
Oh, I didn't see the carrying Jon Rahm's bag part. I saw him melting down. Yeah. Yeah. Me too. Uh, oh, Bobby Knuckles has, uh, given us the Monty Hall explanation in under three minutes.
15:13
The thing is with Bobby Knuckles, before I even s- look at that, again, the Monty Hall explanation, what I am looking for is the magic way to explain it to folks who are, who doubt it so that it clicks into their brains, and I don't know that anybody has been able to find those magic words yet.
15:31
Well, he sent you a video- I'm searching... to try to help you out. No, that's what I'm saying. Oh. People have sent like three, four different videos.
15:36
The best one, I, I have my own way of doing it, which I'll, we'll perhaps get to, but I don't know how many people care. [laughs] Quite honestly.
15:43
Indiana, [laughs] that's what I was thinking the whole time I was talking to Fezzik about it on Friday. I was like, "Do people care about this?" Indiana Jet, "Stuck it out with the tank-a-palooza.
15:50
Finished up 26 and eight on bets plus 8.9 units." Nice. Damn, there you go. One thing I did was apply a pseudo martingale approach.
15:57
I raised or lowered my bet a quarter unit every time my profit increased or decreased by a factor of two units. Okay. Or Indiana Jet, you just, you avoided the minefield.
16:07
Ben Handorf, "Jim Nantz might be a nice guy, but his slurping of the Augusta brass is nauseating.
16:12
When he was rambling about CBS and the Masters' longest television partnership in history, I couldn't help but think this is the biggest y- [laughs] this is the biggest," I won't even say what he says next, "I've ever seen."
16:22
I'm with Kelly on the possessive pronunciation of names ending in S, by the way. Uh, s- uh, Gil is starting to sound like Homer Simpson saying the Flanderses. Flanderses. That's right.
16:32
Ladies and gentlemen, Wes Reynolds is kind enough to join us now. If he possessed something, it would be Wes Reynolds's thing. I've always thought that was awkward. But you have to say it. I think you do.
16:42
Wes Reynolds joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @WesReynolds1, the number one. Wes, how was your 90th Masters, sir?
16:50
Uh, in the, uh, words of the inimitable Jimmy Vaccaro, I want a ham sandwich. There you go. That's basically what I won. It was basically a little bit above break even. Uh, Cameron Young had a chance to put it away.
17:03
We were, all the long shots crew were aboard Cameron Young, and he was looking good through five holes, had a two-shot lead, cleared the field, and then just, you know, kinda got stuck, and, and everybody else was playing well around him.
17:17
And he had a chance to, I think, really put it away and get some distance between the guys, but just couldn't get it home.
17:24
There, there were, you know, not discrediting Rory, but Cameron Young and Justin Rose I think have gotta be the two most disappointed.
17:31
People will say Scottie Scheffler, but he was always kinda trailing and was always kind of the chaser pretty much throughout.
17:38
Those two guys at one point had a chance to put the thing away and win it, and didn't get it done.
17:43
And I was saying earlier, you know, in Cam Young's case, he, I mean, this was the tournament where it felt like if ever the gods were shining on somebody, the number of trees that he had favorable bounces on back into the fairway, the chair which bou- the ball bounced back onto the green.
18:01
Like, it was like, okay, he was playing great already, then to have the luck on top of it, I was like, okay, if the, the gods of Augusta are shining down on Cam Yo- and then not to be in the end.
18:11
Um, the Rose thing is interesting to me, 'cause I agree with you about Scheffler. Scheffler was coming from behind. When Rose went up two strokes there in the middle of the round yesterday-
18:22
And it's, it's funny to think about it now, but this kind of gets back to how I felt like they didn't really contextualize the broadcast very well down the stretch.
18:29
Rose, I was convinced he was winning the tournament at that point. Were you?
18:34
I was actually, because, uh, uh, Kelly, myself, and, uh, Matt Brown had a little text exchange going during the final round, and I was like, "You know what?
18:42
I'm just as worried about Rose as I am about Scottie," 'cause Scottie kind of got hot, and then he really couldn't make anything starting at the turn and into the back nine. I was worried most about Rose.
18:52
I was like, "Here he goes again," because we saw it just last year, where he had that stretch on the back nine where he had four in a row. It's like, okay, just avoid the mistake.
19:01
And then when he got to the 12th at, at, uh, Amen Corner, the par three, where he kind of just chunked that chip, that's when you kind of knew, okay, it's not, it's not gonna be here.
19:11
You know, he may make double on this hole. Ended up only making bogey. But yeah, you did, because he was driving the ball well. Yeah. He looked confident.
19:19
You know, was making putts, and it's like, okay, maybe it's gonna be his day. Maybe the gods are gonna shine on him, because he had...
19:26
You know, he's lost two playoffs, the only one to ever lose two playoffs in the history of the Masters, and finish runner-up. And it's like, no, man, maybe this is gonna be his time.
19:36
And now I'm kicking myself where it's like, he was, like, such the obvious play from, from last year if you just go on the basis of recency results. He was the obvious play, and I didn't even really take a look at him.
19:48
And then he just kind of, uh, it went away from him at the end. The one player I haven't brought up on the show that was within three strokes of the lead ultimately was Sam Burns.
19:56
Sam Burns, who looked super comfortable on Saturday, and then just Sunday it just kind of fell apart. Is this, was that sort of on brand for him, would you say? Yeah, I think so.
20:07
His, his best, his best performance, I believe, in, in Masters, h- his Masters history, uh, four appearances, was like a T29. So he's been a proven winner on the PGA Tour.
20:18
I think he has, like, five wins, but he hadn't won anywhere in the world in three years. So it was a little bit of a surprise.
20:24
And Sam is a guy with some power, can be a little bit erratic with the driver, and can be a really spiked putter.
20:31
Like, they call him Bermuda Burns, but he's bent grass burns too, because he putts well seemingly on all surfaces. And, you know, made some putts on the back nine.
20:39
When he went away and he was out of contention, like, he didn't completely fall into the abyss like Haotong Li or Shane Lowry did.
20:46
He kind of kept fighting, kept fighting, kept fighting, and then it's like, oh, there he is, you know, approaching the top five. But I did not think he, he, he was gonna win at that point.
20:55
He just hadn't been in the mix long enough, Gil, and I think when you hadn't really been in the mix in that situation, we found that with Cameron Young, who's the guy that I think we are, are gonna see win major championships, and he certainly proved it against an elite field at the players.
21:09
Sometimes when you're not in that mix, in the final pairing or the final two pairings at a major championship, sometimes you need a little bit of that scar tissue, and Sam Burns hadn't had that in a while.
21:20
Can I ask this? 'Cause you bring it up, and I'm glad you did, and so it triggers this in my brain. Uh, Scheffler had 11 pars in a row before he birdied 15 and 16, then came one inch away from birdying 17.
21:31
There was a hole there, and I can't remember if it was 12 or 13- 12 and 13, Gil. Yeah, you- You forgot to bring it up... you know where I'm going with this. Yes. Yes.
21:38
You brought up Haotong Li, who, who collapsed in the final round, but Haotong Li searched for his ball for a long time on one of those holes. Scheffler had to wait an interminable amount.
21:48
He even walked up to the green not once, but twice, before addressing his approach shot on one of those two holes. I mean, how much of that in golf
21:58
can you, can you s- at least include in your analysis of the event and say, "That's a bad break that we tend to gloss over"? Yeah.
22:07
Look, I think that, that, that probably had to at least throw him off a little bit, just because you're used to a certain pace or you're used to a certain rhythm, and when that gets out of whack, uh, when you got a, a playing partner, you know, looking for his ball.
22:22
It, it's one thing if you're, like, the last group, and they give you a little bit more leeway in terms of time. But I think he was, what? Like, the third or fourth to last group.
22:30
He was a couple holes ahead of the leaders. So then you're worried about, "Oh my God, are they gonna put us on the clock? Are we slowing everybody up?"
22:37
So that puts a lot of things in your mind there when that happens to you. It, it, it is hard to quantify. I think it was huge yesterday. I think it was huge.
22:46
It, it was the back nine par 5 scoring for Scottie Scheffler, and then Haotong Li on two holes. It was incredible.
22:52
What, what's interesting about that, as soon as you said his name, I immediately thought of it, and I see K- Forgot to bring it up earlier...
22:57
Kelly and I both, without ever having talked about it, immediately had visceral reactions. We were thinking the exact same thing. Uh, we'll come back.
23:02
I have one more Masters question for Wes, and then Wes does have a play in one of the play-in games in the NBA. We'll get to that. Numbers game. VSiN, the sports betting network coming back.
23:12
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Kelly and I still tripping over Haotong Li. It's funny, 'cause I- Can't believe I did that... you wanna get every detail- Yeah...
23:23
that you wanna get on, and then we inevitably will miss one, and that was, I was like, "Perfect. That's exactly what I wanna talk about."
23:29
It, it was such mixed emotions for me in the moment too, because I had the Young and Henley tickets, but like I told you, I bet, I bet Scheffler live on Saturday. So you're like, "All right.
23:37
Do I just want Scheffler to win this thing and get out of this now with, you know, just a little bit of profit?" But I'm like, "No, I got, I got these longer tickets, and much bigger tickets that are in action."
23:46
I was sitting there, I'm like, "This is, this is brutal for Scottie Scheffler." There were, there were two very relatable hack golfer moments in that round yesterday.
23:55
One was Haotong Li searching for his ball for way too long, which was totally me on a golf course, right? The other one, was it, was it Shane Lowry who couldn't- In the trap... in the trap. Yeah.
24:06
He hit the, he hit the lip of the... Not the lip, but really the bank. I mean, it wasn't even close, and it bounced behind him. I was like, "Yeah, I've done that." I think that was cool too.
24:14
It was like, "Oh, that's the one thing you can't do on there." Oh, he was, he was killing him. We get tweets meeting about Chris Heath. Bears to draft offensive lineman first round.
24:22
Dropped from 7/1 to 5/1 before my eyes, and Sadiq to the Rams went locked during the Luke Swain segment. Yep. Luke will do that Trip Tepper: "Rory's club choice on 18 deserved more criticism.
24:35
If he had a caddy with more chutzpah..." By the way, you get that? Mm-hmm. Chutzpah. I did. He would've hit three, a three wood or an iron. Can't hit the driver there.
24:43
I don't- I kind of agree with that I don't know how you tweet it, though, or how you text it. I don't know how you spell chutzpah. Oh, C-H. Oh, okay. U-T-Z-P-A-H.
24:52
I guess I would have guessed the ending there [laughs] but no, I'm still glad you ex- Yeah... uh, spelled it out. Harold Irving: "I caught the Rory comment like I caught you going full NEZCAK on Kelly's FSU grammar."
25:00
[laughs] NEZCAK, it's so great. And Torched D, the one who put the satin on your panties. He goes, "I can explain the Cooper Flagg odds flip for Rookie of the Year. People are idiots."
25:09
Well, we not only can explain it, we called it in advance here on the show. I was like, "If he gets a four- if he gets two games of 45 points or more, it's gonna flip," and that's exactly what happened.
25:18
Well, I don't even know what we're talking about at this point. It's flipped, like, four times in the past two weeks. Yeah.
25:22
Derby Day Day: "Outrights may not have come home, but big shout to Lil' Kelly Bidlin on the Long Shots pod for top debutant, senior, and African." Debutant ends up being a dead... [laughs] Did you have, uh, top African?
25:33
That was, like, when I get... Yeah, I like when I get credit for things I didn't bet. Yeah. Uh, I, I didn't bet that. I was gonna say. I, I, I don't know who it... Yeah, we got, uh, top senior, thanks to Chris Felica.
25:42
Yeah, thank you, Chris. We did dead heat debutant, which hon- honestly I thought we were gonna lose. I thought Ben Griffin was gonna cruise with that one. Well, the whole time I was fixated on Bridgman.
25:50
We had Gotterup, and Gotterup ends up in a, uh, in a dead heat with, um, Sam Stevens at two under. And Ben Griffin, right? No. And Mi- Oh, Griffin fell that far?... and Michael Brennan. Yes, yeah. Brennan played great.
26:06
He, he, he's been a po- Griffin, yeah, Griffin, Griffin went down to even par He's been a popular name on the Long Shots pod this year, but I thought Brennan was really, really impressive.
26:13
Yeah, two, two for f- uh, two out of three in top 10s, three out of five in top 20s, and won every single tournament matchup I made, so good Masters.
26:20
[laughs] Jason Stark: "Nantz is going to need surgery today to remove..." Never mind. You get, you can get where that's going. Yeah. Um,
26:30
Ben Handorf: "Sorry Gil, thought I could sneak that one past you, but your professionalism prevailed." What was that about again already? Ben already... Oh, uh, talking about the Flanders', that thing.
26:39
Was, uh, where's the other part of that? Yeah. Oh, no, the J- he also had a Jim Nantz, uh, colorful comment. Everybody with the colorful comments with Jim Nantz today.
26:48
Wes Reynolds joins us once again, Wes Reynolds One, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. WesReynolds1 is where you can find him on Twitter.
26:54
Last question on the Masters for you, uh, Wes, before we get your basketball pick here. And, and I don't, and I'm...
27:01
Listen, I didn't have Rory either, so I'm saying this as someone who just asked a question last week of, of folks, like, "Hey, you know, Rory, monkey off his back. Last year that's all we were talking about.
27:11
You know, career slam, he finally gets it. Is he playing loose and fancy free?" What's the level of regret for not having more on Rory here for you? Uh, a, a little bit.
27:21
Uh, I, I was a, about, was a bit concerned about, about the injury coming in, because we even saw it with Collin Morikawa with his back issue, despite the fact he had, like, five birdies in a row at one point on the back nine and got to nine under par, and then couldn't birdie either of the two last, uh, post a number.
27:38
You could see that he was wincing. Like, he was in pain. Mm-hmm.
27:42
Uh, and he was moving very gingerly, and I was worried that was gonna happen with Rory, 'cause it was a very similar thing to why he withdrew from Bay Hill and then of course did not really play that well at the Players.
27:53
But he didn't do a lot of the competition prep, and that was a theme for a lot of the guys. Usually guys like to compete in one of those couple events before le- heading to Augusta, and he didn't.
28:04
But he played the course, like, a ton. He made those trips up from Florida all the time and played this course and just, you know, had a lot of reps.
28:14
Had several different practice rounds, whether it was playing with his dad or going and playing just with his, his normal team that would go with him to an event. He was around for all the events.
28:23
He was around for the women's amateur event and, and all that stuff.
28:28
And, and I think just getting those reps really, really helped him out and, and he was a lot more prepared for this than I think maybe a lot of us thought.
28:36
Now do you guys have the s- the same come down as tennis bettors do after a slam when you go to the, uh, the ramp up to the next one? Do you guys have a bit of a come down for the next tournament or- No, not at all...
28:44
or for you guys are you pumped? The RBC Heritage this week. We got another signature event right after the Masters. Signature, baby. Yeah. Okay. So a lot of top players will be there. Long Shots out on Wednesdays, yes?
28:55
Uh, Tuesday night. Tuesday night. Tuesday nights. Yeah, Scheffler, your favorite, plus 350. Uh, Xander plus 1475. Cameron Young and Tommy Fleetwood 17 to 1. Fitzpatrick 20 to 1. Everybody else longer than that. Okay.
29:09
We'll wait for your calls on the Long Shots podcast released tomorrow night, uh, as it is each and every week here on the network. Let's go to the NBA, Wes. Uh, play-in games have been set.
29:19
The Magic end up having to go on the road to take on the Sixers, not tomorrow night 'cause there's a scheduling conflict with the Flyers, so this one will be on Wednesday night in the seven, eight game.
29:30
But the Magic, who all they had to do was beat the Celtics yesterday, uh, the Celtics who were sitting everybody, but Baylor Scheierman, Luka Garza, uh, Ron Harper Jr., they step up and they beat the Magic.
29:41
So the Magic are on the road against the Sixers. This is a pick 'em at this point. Who you got? Yeah, I, I like the Sixers here.
29:49
Sixers, by the way, did win two of the three, even though when you're looking at season series, you know, you obviously have to look at who plays because these guys, you know, sit and re- and rest, like, all the time.
30:01
The one meeting that the Magic won, 144-103, I think that was back in late November. You didn't have Embiid playing, you didn't have, uh, Edgecomb playing, you didn't have Oubre playing.
30:14
Paul George was still in suspension, so keep that in mind. I just look at Orlando, and I'm not taking too much into yesterday, 'cause yesterday, that's the most random day of NBA.
30:25
It's like the last pre-season game of the NFL- Yeah... uh, basically, when you have guys that are sitting out or whatnot.
30:31
But Orlando pl- pretty much played everybody Uh, and, and the Celtics, uh, w- w- with these guys, uh, uh, that you mentioned, uh, uh, the Luka Garzas and the, the, the Ron Harper Juniors, et cetera, et cetera,
30:46
or they ran away from Orlando- [laughs]... in the second half.
30:49
Like, like e- Orlando I think closed, like, what 13 and a half or 14 because Boston's sitting pretty much everybody in their normal rotation except for Scheierman, and Orlando couldn't do that.
31:00
And, and I still worry about Orlando. Even though they have Bane now, they're still not a great outside shooting team. And I also worry about them defending Embiid. I just don't think Orlando has the size.
31:12
Like, Embiid, there are still some times, and maybe he's not the player he was, but there's still that one game where he can dominate. And, and if he's rested and focused and ready to go, and this could be the game.
31:25
I just don't think Carter and the Wagners and those guys, I don't think they have the size to really, uh, contend with him. So I do like the Sixers in this spot. Here's my, here's my other NBA question.
31:36
I didn't bring this up early. Kelly, bring this in, bring you in for this as well. Mm-hmm. So the other thing that happened yesterday, uh, and by the way you were right.
31:42
The, the Sixers by the way for anybody who cares, Sixers get the seven over the eight because they beat the Magic two out of three times.
31:48
The Raptors get the five over the six Hawks in a tie because they swept the Hawks four nothing.
31:54
But the other thing that happened yesterday, I say on this show all the time, how many times do I say we tend to overrate seeding? I was waiting for this conversation. Seeding/positioning, right?
32:04
So the Spurs play the Nuggets yesterday, and they kinda know that the Nuggets are gonna limit Jokic to 15 to 20 minutes so they can get the 65 game minimum, and then they'll take him out.
32:16
The Spurs, if they beat the Nuggets, right, they got a shot then at putting the Nuggets as the four, and therefore the Nuggets in a conference semifinal would have to play the Thunder and not the Spurs themselves.
32:27
And yet the Spurs just decide, "Well, we're not gonna play Wembanyama.
32:31
We're just gonna be okay losing this game," which again just corroborates the whole thing, that we tend to make more of seeding here as, as fans and bettors than the actual teams do.
32:41
Do you view this, do either of you guys view this as a horrific minus EV move by the Spurs? Yes. 100%. Mm-hmm. So why don't they care- I don't know... enough? Why? Yeah. I, I just- If it is, and it's so obvious...
32:57
I just don't understand. I mean, now, now your road is harder, and it's not like the Spurs have that long playoff experience where it's like, okay, they've been to the West finals, you know? They understand.
33:08
So this is a team that obviously has potential to win it all. But yeah, I, I thought that was m- very much a tactical error by the Spurs, and it just made their road a little bit harder.
33:17
I, I just think, Gil, even when we go, when we say there's two, three, four games left, and that mapping out some of this is too much, I get it. But when it's the last game on the final day of the season- I, I-...
33:30
and one, one, a, a win or a loss can move things a certain way, yeah, I w- I was shocked they didn't care more about that I had two thoughts, and my first was that this is why I always say it.
33:38
Like, we just, we're so convinced teams care about this stuff. They clearly didn't. And then two, my next thought after the comma is what are they doing? [laughs] I have a Spur, I have Spurs bet to win it all- Yeah...
33:49
to be in the finals. Like, I, I like, I, I didn't like that move.
33:52
Now, for basketball fans, we ensure that we get a second round matchup between Wemby and Jokic, which would be fantastic, but- I'd have preferred the Thunder Yeah, you would. Yeah. You would know. You should.
34:01
[laughs] Thank you, Wes. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. You bet, guys. Thank you. Wes Reynolds, everybody. Coming back on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:18
Right now on vsin.com, completely free, no subscription needed, you can access MLB and NBA prop projections powered by Opta AI, plus realtime betting splits from DraftKings and Circa.
34:28
Pro level tools, zero cost, but only for a limited time. Head to vsin.com and start using them today. That's V-S-I-N.com. Today, we got tweets.
34:36
Maybe the book, Brian Young, "Here's the, uh, picture of Sergio carrying Rahm's bag." But why was he carrying Rahm's bag? I know he's spazzed. But did he- I don't know. I was not watching it, uh...
34:45
did he just pick up the wrong bag? I don't know. Jeff Holdorf, "My biggest Masters broadcast annoyance is when CBS treats taped action like it's live. Scheffler hits his tee shot on 16.
34:56
Five to seven minutes later you hear the roar. I turn and said, 'Scottie just made his putt.' Then CBS takes you to it as if it's live." Yeah.
35:03
I actually go the opposite on this 'cause- It's kinda tough in golf broadcasts- Yeah... they don't do it any other way. It is. It is. What's your other way on it?
35:10
Well, the, the problem is that I, I, like, I always have multiple screens going. So I always have the alternate feed. Ah.
35:14
Like, I have the Amen Corner, and then a lot of times you see it on there first and you know CBS is gonna cut to it, except sometimes CBS beats the alt feed.
35:23
So then, then you get real, like I get really confused when that happens. It also makes live betting a little funky, too. Mm-hmm. Uh, Brian Schaefer31, "They didn't have the top amateur player in the room with Rory.
35:33
Is that because no amateur made the cut?" I believe that's the case. Is that right? Oh. No amateur in the Butler Cabin. I didn't even watch that part yesterday. I, so I didn't notice. I didn't know that.
35:43
But yeah, but that, that would probably be the reason. Ah, the Butler Cabin. Yeah. Here we are again. Seen that enough. Seen that enough.
35:49
It was the, the most awkward Butler Cabin interview of all time was when Freddy Couples won the, uh, won the Masters, and Jim Nantz started his whole thing by saying, "What a moment this is, Freddy, for both of us.
36:02
You going to the University of Houston dreaming of winning this tournament, finally being here. Me, a broadcaster at the University of Houston." I was like, "Okay. All right. [laughs] Let's stop."
36:13
Adam Burke joins us now courtesy of the Progressive [laughs] Casino. You can follow on Twitter at skatingtripods. Let's get that right. Adam joins us now, uh, from his spot here in Vegas, no longer in Cleveland.
36:23
How you doing, Adam? I'm good. How you boys doing today? Doing very well. Um, you don't bet the Masters at all, do you?
36:31
I made a couple of first round leader plays, mostly because I wrote the article, uh, over at vsin.com. So, you know, if I put it up, I, I definitely, you know, wanna follow through with it.
36:39
But, uh, no, I, I typically don't do a whole lot with golf on a weekly basis and- You know, I'm not just gonna jump in on the Masters when I haven't really been paying that close of attention.
36:48
So, uh, you know, just kind of playing what I put out there in article form, and a couple of props that I played as well.
36:53
But no, I didn't have anything for the full tournament, you know, in terms of outrights or anything like that. You have been following baseball, of course, which is your, uh, want to do.
37:01
I, I have been as well, of course. Uh, we love this sport. It is, uh, roughly about a 10th of the way through the season now.
37:08
Give me a, uh, a headline or two for, from you that is sort of, you know, again, just a 10th of the season, so you don't wanna get too crazy, but something that you definitely are keeping an eye on.
37:19
Well, love is a strong word. I think it's kind of love/hate, sort of depending on the day, um, when it comes to baseball.
37:25
But I, I think, look, I think it's really interesting that every team in the American League so far has seven losses. Yes. Every single one of them has at least seven losses.
37:34
So this kind of speaks to a couple of different things, right? First of all, a lot of people like to play underdogs in the month of April because the good teams are still kind of trying to get into rhythm themselves.
37:44
A lot of times they played a long season the prior year, you know, making a deep playoff run, something like that. So, um, right now we'll call it parity.
37:52
You know, ultimately I do think water will find its level with a lot of these teams. But yeah, every team in the American League already has lost seven games. Uh, what's the best record?
38:00
Nine and seven, I think right now. So, um, you know, it's been a little bit tough sledding for some of these teams here.
38:06
The other thing I think is really interesting is so far the walk rate around Major League Baseball is 10%. Ooh. Which would easily be the highest in a season for a very long time, if not ever.
38:17
I didn't run that here this morning, but it's definitely much higher than what we've seen over the last few seasons, and much higher than what we've seen over the last few seasons in the first month as well.
38:25
Uh, slugging percentage also the lowest it's been since 2022 on March/April based on that split. So I don't know if maybe the walk rate has something to do with the ABS system.
38:36
Um, you know, maybe umpires are calling the zone a little bit tighter now because they don't wanna be embarrassed by having these reviews and stuff like that.
38:44
Or maybe it's just 'cause a lot of guys throw hard and they don't really know where the ball's going right now. We'll have to wait and see. We still have, obviously, more than half of the month of April left to go.
38:51
But a 10% walk rate is, is pretty high given that the strikeout rate is pretty much where it's been the last few years. Uh, but again, guys really aren't taking advantage of being ahead in the count.
39:00
They're not really slugging the baseball yet. That could change as it warms up here throughout the rest of the month. It's interesting.
39:05
I did a, uh, deep dive, just, you know, nothing show worthy necessarily, but I did a deep, deep dive on the ABS challenge leaders. They keep track of all of this.
39:14
So they, they do the, the batters, they do the pit- the pitchers, the catchers.
39:18
Um, Teoscar Hernández of the Dodgers, Marcell Ozuna of the, uh, Pirates, and Pete Alonso of the Orioles are the only three players in baseball. They're three for three as batters- Hmm... on, on successful challenges.
39:30
Uh, as far as pitchers, um, only g- guys are one for one. That's the best in terms of pitchers 'cause they don't, they don't challenge much. The catchers are the real headline.
39:40
Uh, Dylan Dingler of the Detroit Tigers, nine of 10 successful challenges from behind home plate, proving once again the catchers are the ones who know the best.
39:50
Victor Caratini of the Minnesota Twins, 8 of 10 in terms of his challenges. Um, Hunter Goodman of the Rockies, 9 of 12. And then you have J.T. Realmuto of the, uh, Phillies, who's five of five.
40:03
I mean, some of these guys are, are just perf- I mean, are just so good at this. And then the, uh, of course the, the more, maybe more interesting for others is umpires.
40:12
Umpires John Tumpane and Will Little have had 10 pitches challenged, only one have gotten overturned. So those two guys as umps are like, "Pfft, stop challenging my stuff. It's great."
40:25
On the other hand, the worst of the worst, [laughs] uh, Chad Whitson has had 11 pitches challenged, 10 have been overturned. Andy Fletcher, 17 challenged, 15 have been overturned.
40:37
Brock Belue, four out of four overturned. These are, some of these are fascinating. You're like, "God, some of these guys who have been ump- umpires since the dawn of time need to go away."
40:45
Mike Estabrook, 16 of 21 overturned. Anyway, on and on. You could just, uh, spend a half hour looking at that stuff. Let's get to the picks. Um, let's start with the Angels and Yankees.
40:57
You have a play in this game today. Yeah, I do. And I just wanna mention, you know, Andy Fletcher, I know Hunel- Hunter Wendelstedt had a really bad game the other day, Mike Estabrook, those are all older umpires. Yes.
41:06
So I think the younger guys who have had the ABS system coming up through the minor leagues and have also seen, you know, high velocity throughout their entire umpiring careers, uh, they're guys who should be better with this, you know, uh, throughout the course of the season.
41:20
So I don't know if there's a handicapping angle to that necessarily or not, uh, but just, you know, younger home plate umpires are definitely gonna do better with this than the old guys.
41:28
As far as this Angels and Yankees game goes, so I mentioned this before and I talked about this in my article, I don't really like playing run lines with home teams because if they're leading after, you know, eight and a half innings, they don't bat the bottom of the ninth.
41:41
So they may only have eight chances to score runs, whereas the other team's gonna have nine chances to score runs. But I think it's worthwhile tonight here with the Yankees.
41:49
Will Warren on the mound, Yusei Kikuchi going for the Angels. Yankees have actually been really bad against left-handed pitching here so far. Uh, pretty small sample size. They haven't faced a whole lot of lefties yet.
42:00
Uh, but this is a game where the wind's gonna be blowing out. It's gonna be pretty warm in the Bronx, at least relative to what it has been of late.
42:06
Warren's a guy, 54 and a half percent ground ball rate on the season here so far. Kikuchi's a guy who's had a home run problem throughout the entirety of his career. Yankees have a bullpen advantage as well.
42:17
Uh, this is just one where I just kind of looked at it and I thought, well, Kikuchi's not getting a whole lot of chases outside the zone. Yankees should make a lot of contact, quality contact at that.
42:27
Uh, Warren's a guy who's got more swing and miss than Kikuchi at this stage of his career. So I think the Yankees are gonna have more chances to put balls in play and put more balls in play in the air.
42:37
So that's the difference in this one for me. Plus, I think they can add on late off of an Angels bullpen that is okay, but certainly not on New York's level.
42:45
So- I took the run line here in this one at a small plus money price, Yankees minus one and a half in the plus 102 range out there. The rare home team run line from Adam.
42:53
Not only do they not bat in the bottom of the ninth, but they also, I, I always like to say, if they're up two runs in the top of the ninth, and let's say someone, you know, hit by a pitch or a walk or whatever, someone goes to first base, they literally call that runner going to second sometimes indifference, right?
43:07
Catcher's indifference. The home team's goals are not aligned with your goals as the better. They couldn't care less if that runner scores, right? So literally called indifference to get him to second base.
43:20
Uh, and then just a bloop gets him home and you, and you lose your bet. Marlins Braves, you have a play on the total here. Yeah, that's an excellent point, by the way, on, on home team run lines there, for sure.
43:29
Uh, so Marlins and Braves, I like the over in this game here tonight. You got two top five offenses against right-handed pitching. Yuri Perez gets the start for the Marlins, Grant Holmes for the Braves.
43:39
Uh, Perez has struggled here, 5.06 ERA, 5.02 expected, 6.20 FIP, 11 runs on 13 hits in 16 innings. Um, he's had a home run problem as well. He's given up four of those.
43:49
And then, you know, for Grant Holmes, a guy who, right now, you, you worry about a lot of negative regression for him. Batting average on balls in play is just 191, left on base percentage 86.4%.
44:01
Those are significant outliers that are going to regress to the mean, and he's a guy who's not getting a lot of swing and miss this year, and also has a very elevated walk rate.
44:10
It came out last year that he was pitching with a damaged UCL.
44:13
He's pitching through it, which is a good thing for the Braves, 'cause they've obviously had horrible injury luck on the starting pitching side so far, uh, here in 2026. But Holmes isn't healthy.
44:23
He's starting to elevate the baseball more. He's become more of a fly ball guy. I definitely don't like to see that when you have a walk rate problem. Uh, and again, this Marlins team, I, I think they're pretty good.
44:32
Honestly, I think offensively they're a little bit underrated still, and the Braves are back to being the offense that we thought they would be, uh, you know, over the last couple of seasons.
44:40
So didn't like to see that last night where they blew out my Guardians 13 to one, but the offense is getting it going here. I like the over in that Marlins and Braves game.
44:49
Over eight, paying a little bit of juice, but I think it's a worthwhile look. And just to, uh, add one, you are on the Guardians as well today, yes? Yeah, I am.
44:56
I didn't wanna sound biased, so I'm glad we're running out of time for the segment. [laughs] Thank you, Adam. Appreciate it. Have a good one, guys. You too. Adam Burke at Skating Tripods, managing editor here at VSiN.
45:08
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