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Apr 15, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 15, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 15, 2024
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46:40
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Transcript
0:00
You always follow the money Follow the money That's what I always say, you always follow the money. Yeah, yeah. This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Paulie Howard on VSiN. [rock music] Here we go.
0:12
Welcome in, it is Follow the Money on VSiN, V Sports Betting Network. This show is brought to you by DraftKings. Mitch Moss along with Jonathan Von Tobel this week, as Paul Howard is on vacation.
0:23
We're live in downtown Las Vegas from the Circa Resort and Casino. A little bit of everything today on the show. What a time of year.
0:32
Get into the golf, Masters recap, looking ahead to betting the PGA Championship next month.
0:39
NBA, the crazy final day of the regular season, moving forward to the playing games, and, uh, first round playoff series prices as well. NFL Draft, Major League Baseball, card. Can we start right there?
0:53
I- how sneaky good is April on the sports calendar year?
0:57
Oh, it's, especially when you add now the last, what, this is the eighth year of the NFL Draft betting, so you get, like, that final event at the end of the month where we're all getting ready for it.
1:05
We've been talking about it ad nauseam forever. Oh, it's absolutely tremendous. It's exceptional. It's gotta be one of the best on the year now. Right.
1:11
We all think, like, maybe September, October, very top of the list, football starting, baseball's winding down.
1:17
You get the beginning of the NBA and the NHL seasons, weather's great, generally speaking, in a lot of spots still. March comes to mind because of the madness. There are so many things going on, there's no...
1:28
We don't have a down period at all until, like, what, after the NBA finals at this point, after the NBA draft? Yeah, pretty much. I mean, you could argue that once the, uh, the series thin out, right?
1:37
And you're only talking about four teams in action once you get to the conference finals maybe, but outside of that, n- no.
1:42
This is, arguably this time then of course, like, I think, like, peak sports viewing, just in terms of volume of events, obviously in winter when, like, college football, NFL- Yeah...
1:49
hockey, start of the NBA season, all that stuff goes on. But in terms of the magnitude of the events we're getting here, too, Masters, draft, everything in between. No, April's awesome.
1:58
I thought after the madness or around, like, probably after the first round of the men's tournament, I'm like, "Okay, now my accounts are gonna take a break for a minute. I'm not gonna have a zillion bets.
2:09
I'll wait 'til..." Not the case. Hmm. It's only ramped up. Yep. Oh, everything.
2:13
Be- 'cause, 'cause again, with baseball every single day, the NBA stuff finally coming to a conclusion yesterday for the regular season, and the NFL draft around the corner.
2:22
Hey, dummy, you're gonna have 100 bets on the draft now as well. So forget about it for, you know, another month or so.
2:28
But the Masters turned into, I thought Saturday's action was absolutely brilliant for about a two-hour window when we had five guys, short amount of time, tied for first, and it was a little hairy whether or not Scottie was gonna be able to pull away, and then he eventually did yesterday.
2:44
But this guy has been fantastic the entire year. We talked about this back in March.
2:50
Maybe this was going to be boring, JBT, and we're gonna get a lot of chalk this time of year, and I tied it into South Carolina women, winning the women's. Yep.
2:59
UConn winning the men's, and now Scottie taking down the Masters, and all three of those things came in.
3:03
Right, and when you looked at it on the surface, too, I mean, you, you kind of think, like, "Wow, plus 450 to win a golf tournament," you probably don't wanna get in there, right? Yeah, I know.
3:09
You think it's, it's too short. You know, maybe if, for example, like, uh, minus 200 to finish inside of the top 10, you could... That's somewhat more palatable considering how good he can be, but that, it's, it's nuts.
3:19
And the fact that you watched the play, and I thought, like, Sunday was wildly impressive.
3:23
When you get to that stretch on Sunday where it's what, a four-way tie approaching, like, you know, the turn, and he bogeys and you're like, "Okay, cool, maybe this is gonna get interesting." It's like, [laughs] "Nah."
3:33
Birdie, birdie, birdie, some of the most impressive shots I've seen- Oh... from a golfer ever. And then he's j- and he just sails the rest of the way. The only blemish of course on 11. That, that was brilliant.
3:42
Like, great- watching greatness transpire to that level- I agree... is so cool to watch in the moment, and I w- I was transfixed. I thought it was incredible.
3:50
You're right, because he wasn't even playing well to begin yesterday. Yep. And I thought to myself, "It doesn't look like it's gonna go well for Scottie today." He just, he did not have it right away.
3:59
I think he maybe had some nerves out there. As he did two years ago, he woke up on the final day of the Masters two years ago and told his w- he started crying, and he told his wife, "I don't know if I'm ready for this."
4:10
And it kind of was playing out like that to begin yesterday, but then after he corrected it, and all of those players were making a run at him, Ober for a little while, Homa was right there.
4:20
How about that shot on 12 for poor Max Homa? Yep. Who went 32 holes without making a birdie.
4:25
He was right there hanging tough the entire time, and then he's seven under right there with Scottie, and then somehow on 12, it just ricochets off the back of the green and into the, you know, the unimaginable difficulty with the rough back there.
4:41
Um, and so he couldn't, he could never recover from that, obviously. And then Morikawa talked about how he got too gritty after the, the round was done with. He learned that lesson.
4:50
And so Scottie now is basically in Tiger Woods territory with these numbers. And you look at this good tweet from Todd Dewey, who covers gambling for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. So he was four to one,
5:02
well, a little bit higher than that, to win the Masters. He's four to one now at the Westgate to win the PGA, the shortest favorite to win that event since Tiger was four to one in 2013.
5:13
Scheffler is plus 450 to win the US Open, five to one to win the British. If he wins all four and takes down the Grand Slam, which will not happen, it would be about 164 to one. That's it. [laughs] Yeah. That's nothing.
5:26
And, and, like, you look at it, too, like, the numbers for him yesterday for, like, the, for, for, excuse me, for the entire tournament, strokes gained tee to green, he almost doubled up the second golfer. Yeah, yeah.
5:37
He's, he was incredible. Watching that happen, and you watch and you're like, "Okay, cool. He's doing really well." And then you look at the statistics and how well he had been playing there.
5:44
It, it's, it's incredible to have the precision he did with those irons, which, um, uh, it's too early in the morning. Which hole has the, uh, the water right in front of the green? Was it 12? I think it's 16.
5:53
I think it's 12, right? Where he's, where he's sitting there and he's got, like, this kind of tough shot.
5:57
He's right on the rough, and I think they had, I think The Athletic had a great quote where he asked his caddy, he's like, "What do you think we should do here?" He's like, "Do what you've always done."
6:03
Carries the water. He's like, "All right, let's go." Boom, just go straight over, right in the middle of the green. Like, the guy was incredible. Imagine if he gets it down to where his 8, 10, 12-footers- Yep...
6:13
are going in. In that range, then forget about it. He's going to be unbeatable. Now, having said that, I'm not gonna be betting him at the PGA. That number to me is too short.
6:24
Uh, also he is going to be, I mean, the big deal that was made this weekend is could Scottie Scheffler leave the Masters even if he's leading, if his wife goes into labor? And he talked about this- Mm...
6:34
uh, with Jim Nantz afterwards, and how he doesn't even know what it's gonna be like. The feeling of being a dad for the first time is gonna be incredible.
6:41
Like, the, when the PGA comes around, his newborn child is going to be what, a week old, two weeks old? Yeah. Maybe three weeks old. You're a father twice over.
6:49
What were you like in the first two weeks after having your first kid? Well, I was, uh, I was a mess. I was watching 1913 at, like, 3:00 in the morning, you know, on HBO.
6:57
I will say I don't have the financial backing of Scottie Scheffler to potentially- No... get some help there. I don't think he's gonna be chilling in a two-bedroom apartment with, you know, a two-year-old watching HBO.
7:06
I, I'm sure he'll be involved, but- [laughs] I don't think, uh, I don't think he'll be dealing with the same things I will. Right, but you could tell that he's a total family man. Oh, of course. Yes.
7:13
You know, he's, he's a, uh, religious guy. Um, so it does mean the, the world to him. I just, I... That's one reason why, along with the number here, and I did parlay, and I talked about this in March. Sure.
7:25
So I parlayed Scheffler along with UConn, and it got there. I'm not gonna be doing any parlays with Scottie Scheffler to win the PGA Championship. I'm gonna have to look elsewhere. Yeah.
7:35
I mean, it, like, it's just, uh, again, you go back to those numbers, it is hard realistically in a golf tournament to, to do that.
7:41
Although statistically he's at the peak of his powers, when you look at every single metric and the way that he's been playing, uh, it is equivalent to what we've seen from Tiger Woods.
7:49
But, you, you know, and I thought this was the right strategy for this tournament, Mitch, even if you wanna bet on Scheffler, the way to do it in these tournaments too would be after round one.
7:56
I mean, there is a good shot he gets to win, obviously, every single one of these, but there's also a pretty good shot that after a round one, the price does, um, you know, the, the price itself balloons, the odds decrease, and that you can get something a little bit better than four to one.
8:08
Sure. That's if he comes out, has a bad round one. Right. And is- Or even just, like, two under and somebody else is, you know- Yeah... up ahead. Yeah, if, if Scottie Scheffler is six strokes back going into Friday.
8:19
I don't think I'd ever doubt it. You scared? No, not at all. He can't make a run? [laughs] Not, not at all. Of course, he can, and you're gonna get a much better number, to your point, then.
8:28
Uh, what was it like for you watching Tiger yesterday? You're w- you're much younger than I am. Yeah. So I grew up in Tiger's prime. I will say that that was a little difficult to watch yesterday and Saturday.
8:39
I, so I, you know, it's funny, when you brought the, when I knew we were gonna talk about this, I was thinking about this a little bit more, and to your point, that was the first thing I thought of.
8:45
Like, Tiger for me, it was never, you know, in, in my younger days, I didn't really watch a ton of golf, right? It was more in my, in my later years. So I never experienced, like, the peak of what Tiger was.
8:54
So I don't wanna say he's always been this, but he's never been that dominant figure. I've never seen that really. Yeah. Never taken it in live.
8:59
It's just going back and watching things and whatnot, but it's still, I think it's just still tough in general when you know about the history, you know how good he is.
9:06
I mean, again, we're talking about these odds to win these tournaments and where he was, and then seeing him struggle with some of these simple putts, can't get anything down.
9:13
I think it was, I think it was Saturday, he talked of, they, they asked him after his round on Saturday, and the answer to like, "Hey, did Friday essentially take a lot out of you?" And he just goes, "Yeah."
9:24
Like, he just, he, he just doesn't seem to be healthy, and that's the, that's the part that sucks. It's not even struggling.
9:29
It's that he's continuously trying to push through this, and obviously he's taking a hit in terms of the returns on his, on his game. Yeah, playing 23 holes on Friday- Yes...
9:37
no doubt came back to bite him, 'cause he was actually in pretty good shape, uh, on the, on the leaderboard, right?
9:43
Um, not looking too bad going into Saturday, and then when he's out there, and the, the video that probably, you know, made the rounds, and if you missed it, he's lifting his shirt up, and you s- you can see he's got a big patch on, on his lower back.
9:54
Yep. And he's, even with that big patch on to help the pain, he's rubbing whatever it was, the Icy Hot or whatever he has, Biofreeze.
10:02
Beyond that, he's probably got something that's 10 times better than what we can get at the, you know- Right... CVS down the street. But it just, it wasn't, and he just fell apart on Saturday and Sunday.
10:11
And so I ha- I was watching, I had two TVs on at the same exact time, and it was, um, I think it was either yesterday or Saturday. I'm getting my days now mixed up.
10:21
But the one TV, they were revisiting 2019 when he won, which I still argue would be just one of the best sporting events of all time. The 2019 Masters was as good as it gets.
10:31
So they were showing that at the same time that, as he was actually playing real, live golf this year. You wanna talk about a juxtaposition- Yeah...
10:38
that blew my mind, because all those golfers waited for him at Butler Cabin, and they, it was, like, one of the highlights of their lives to, to have a narrow loss to Tiger, but they were so excited for him to win in 2019 and how well he played compared to this year, where it's just
10:54
feeling awful for the guy. Yeah. And we're never g- we're never gonna get back to that spot where he was only five years ago.
11:00
Yeah, and that, that Masters, like, that's the closest thing that I can get to, like, you know, watching, like, what that was like for him, and I'll still f- I'll never forget, it was one of the, one of the holes down the stretch where he almost, he almost holes it from the fairway.
11:10
And you could, and the camera cuts to him that year he wins the Masters in 2019, and you can kind of see he's cursing, and you're like, "Oh, he's mad that he didn't hole it." Oh, yeah. Hell, yeah.
11:17
Like, he's, he's, like, that's how great- He expected to. Yes, that's how great this guy is. That, it's incredible. Up next, NBA first round series prices, and what happened on the final day of the NBA's regular season.
11:30
It was wild and somewhat inexplicable. I know people who are not happy. I don't blame them, but guess what? That's sports betting and gambling. This is Follow the Money on VSEN, V Sports Betting Network.
11:39
[upbeat rock music] Always follow the money.
11:59
That's what I always say. You always follow the money. Yeah, yeah. This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Paulie Howard on VSEN. Welcome in. It is Follow the Money here on VSEN, V Sports Betting Network.
12:13
This show is brought to you by DraftKings. Mitch Moss along with Jonathan Van Tobel this week. Paulie is on vacation. We're live in downtown Las Vegas from the Circa Resort.
12:22
And casino, and the NBA's regular season is finally over with, which means we get the play-in games tomorrow and Wednesday night. We also have the first round playoff series numbers available.
12:34
And at DraftKings, the menu at DraftKings for everything is gigantic. Yep. And they did not mess around at all with the NBA playoffs as well.
12:41
Like, to bet these series, you can find pretty much anything that you're looking for. And they put them up almost immediately. Yeah, they're up- Yeah... bang, just like that. So let's begin in the Western Conference.
12:50
My prediction, not so much for the series at this point, but my prediction is going to be, and I think yours as well, right, is going to be you're not going to find too many people make the case for the Clippers to beat the Mavericks in this series.
13:04
No. And I say that because Dallas has been red hot, and I think when ESPN sends out, like, the pr- I'll use them as a, the example here.
13:11
I think when they send out their predictions overall, they probably have between, like, 15 and 20 people at the network give their predictions.
13:18
My guess is going to be it's gonna be something in the 15 to two range- Sure... of people picking the Mavericks compared to people picking the Clippers. Yeah, I think so. I think that in...
13:28
We also, and to be fair too, because we have a- we've seen this series price. Some spots open the Clippers as a small underdog. Uh, DraftKings opened them up a small, like, $1.20 favorite. It's not, like, about a pick.
13:37
Mm-hmm. Uh, and the, there is, we, we don't know what's happening with Kawhi Leonard. That's, like, the big thing that hangs over this series. Now, the Clippers have said the reports are MRI was clean. He's fine.
13:48
I will also remind everybody that last year they lied about, just flat out lied about his knee, right?
13:54
[laughs] He allegedly injured it in game one in that win over the Phoenix Suns, played game two without popping up on the injury report, and then game three was out, and then they said he hurt it in game one. Uh-huh.
14:03
So I wouldn't trust them as far as you could throw them.
14:05
[laughs] But I will say this, if, if he is healthy, let, let's just, let's assume the truth, and let's just say that he's going to be out there healthy and ready to go for game one of this series, the Clippers can win this series, obviously.
14:18
Of course they can. They should be favored to win this series. And there's kind of this weird, like, this thought that the Mavericks and Luka Dončić own the Los Angeles Clippers.
14:28
They got a winning record against them the last three seasons. They're 2-0 against them in the postseason, uh, you know, the Dallas Mavericks, and the Mavericks have gotten much better.
14:34
And for me, that's the fascinating part. You mentioned how good they are. So their new starting lineup, Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Jones Jr., P.J.
14:40
Washington, Daniel Gafford, at about 400 possessions total played together, Mitch, a plus 15.9 net rating, and the, the most impressive part, a defensive rating that gives up just barely over a point per possession.
14:51
Like, that's how good they've been. And that, for me, is where it starts, 'cause the reason why I like playoff basketball so much, it's all about those match-ups.
14:58
So, like, if you're the Clippers, in past years, Ivica Zubac has been eaten alive by Luka Dončić. He picks on him every possession down the floor. Can you play small ball? Because if you put, like, P.J., uh, P.J.
15:08
Tucker in there, well, then all of a sudden Daniel Gafford's gonna be catching lobs all over the place- Right... and absolutely destroying you.
15:13
And so the intricacies of those match-ups and what they're gonna do, I'm absolutely fascinated by what this series is gonna be.
15:18
So people that make the case for the Mavericks, I think they're also gonna say it's gonna be maybe a five or six-game series. I'm not gonna buy into that. Yep.
15:25
However, you can bet the Mavericks minus one and a half games at DraftKings, plus 155.
15:30
And you're right, if you go back to, like, March 11th, that was the game against the Bulls where it really flipped for this Mavericks team. Mm-hmm.
15:35
They blew out the Bulls in that spot, and that's when the defense really just looked like it did a total turnaround. They're basically the best team in the NBA- Yes... right, since that, since that point.
15:46
Um, but if, if Kawhi, that's the biggest if of the entire playoffs probably, if Kawhi plays, total game-changer. Mm-hmm. If not, they're not gonna win the series in my opinion. Uh, and I ran this by you last night.
15:57
I don't like laying big prices. However, the Mavericks plus two and a half games is minus 475. I can... No, I totally agree with what, everything that you just said. I can see the Clippers winning this series.
16:12
In fact, if Kawhi plays, I think they're going to, but I don't think the Clippers are gonna beat them in a sweep or a five-game series. No. I think, I think if the Clippers win this series, it's gonna be six or seven.
16:21
You can get two... I know it's minus... Nobody ever wants to talk about laying big numbers, me included, but minus 475 on plus two and a half games, I don't hate it.
16:30
No, I, I don't at all, especially when you look at the way that the Clippers, I'm gonna pull up the exact number, but the way that they've been playing defensively, we'll call it, like, since the post, the post All-Star break, hasn't really been great for them.
16:40
Post All-Star break, they are 24th in defen- non-garbage time defensive efficiency. Now, their offense has still been very good, but their defense just hasn't been there.
16:47
And so when you're going to have these certain mismatches that Luka Dončić is gonna be able to pick on, well, you yourself are gonna be able to do that, too.
16:54
Like, each one of these series that they had played with them was extremely tight. Remember the last time they played, they were down 3-2 going back to Dallas. Kawhi Leonard scored, like, 45 points. Yeah.
17:02
It was incredible, pushed to the seven. They eventually won that series, too. Like, no, these are gonna be hard, tight, like, fought.
17:08
The, this is a series in which even if Kawhi Leonard plays, I'm sure the Clippers will probably only be, like, a dollar, $1.30, $1.45 favorite.
17:15
I, I would argue it should be higher, but either way, it's gonna be a tight series if Kawhi's gonna be out there and down to the wire. It- I would agree with that sentiment at all.
17:22
It sounds to me, though, like you don't have a bet on this yet. No, 'cause I just- 'Cause you, you need to know. You, I need to know. Now, and I think, too, instead of, uh, 'cause you said, what, now what, what was it?
17:29
The Clip- or Mavericks plus two and a half games? Plus two and a half games, yeah. What's the, what's the series total? 'Cause you could also do that, right? Yeah, I think it's, uh, yeah, you can.
17:36
Oh, they got everything. Yeah, so, like- It's absolutely incredible... so you can go over, you know, a certain amount of games, like, uh, something like that, in that nature.
17:42
I think you would totally look at something there in terms of total games played for the series. It's five, five- I think it's totally probable... five and a half over is minus 195. There you go.
17:49
Like, see, something like that. You could also find over six and a half at a- Yep... uh, pretty nice plus price. Right. So essentially asking, yeah, is this game, is, yes, no, will it go seven?
17:56
And I, I think that's a, it's a very plausible- Yeah... reality. Okay, so this is incredible. Great tweet from @ powertripbets. Power Trip is a morning show in, uh, Minneapolis on KFAN.
18:10
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been underdogs in an NBA longest 22 consecutive playoff games. The streak goes back to May 19th, 2004, and the Sacramento Kings Western Conference semifinal series.
18:24
They opened up a two-point favorite against the Suns in game one. Will they go off the favorite here in this game? They're not even the favorite to win the series- It's crazy... and here they are.
18:32
They've been one of the best teams in the NBA the entire year. I mean, that's the fascinating dynamic, right? You're like, yes, two is a coin flip. It's, it's barely being favored.
18:39
But you're favored to win your first game, and yet you're a small underdog for the series against Phoenix. Yeah. And I'll say this. Look, I think from a matchup standpoint, Minnesota, it pro- did not wanna see Phoenix.
18:49
Like, it, when you have guys who can, are elite shot-makers, no matter who is defending them, that, that's a problem. And as good as Mike Conley is defensively, he's very sound.
18:58
He's not shutting down Devin Booker or anything, and maybe that's An- Edwards' assignment. When you, we've seen him play in the past, that's kind of the guy who's picked up.
19:05
But, you know, the way I've been putting it, Mitch, is the market has been waiting for the opportunity to bet on Phoenix, to ratchet up that power rating.
19:14
I was hoping they were gonna get Oklahoma City so I could lay the crap out of a very short price for the Oklahoma City Thunder against Phoenix 'cause I, I just, I think the market is too high here on the Suns, and I, I, like, I find myself gravitating toward Minnesota.
19:26
Like, I th- I get the matchup is poor. I get they played them poorly the last few times that they have played them as well.
19:31
But you give a guy like Finch, Chris Finch, their head coach, time to get ready with a defensive scheme, and you get a Suns team that, yes, down the stretch has played better, but over the grand scheme of things has also fallen flat on their face multiple times.
19:44
Oh, [laughs] yes. You're losing to the Clippers the way they did in that game against Phoenix. Remember, two weeks ago, uh, Shaedon Alexander gets ruled out. Jaylen Williams isn't playing.
19:52
They go to Oklahoma City, get boat raced by the Oklahoma City Thunder. There's so many different spots in which this team has fallen short, but the market's been waiting for them to be so good. I've, I've...
20:01
I wanna say that Phoenix is overvalued coming into the series. Okay, so you're holding Timberwolves at a nice big number to win the Western Conference this year. Yeah. You grabbed that right away this season.
20:10
What is your advice here for others who are in the same boat? Uh, it sounds to me like you almost wanna add more Minnesota in this series. I- part of me wants to.
20:17
I mean, the, the real, the perfect thing is that you can't do anything, right? You need them- You can't do anything, no...
20:22
at the very, especially if, if you have something to win the Western Conference, at the minimum, you need them to make it to a Western Conference semifinals.
20:27
You need it to be the second round so you can take a piece off of this, but you don't wanna start taking things, you know, stay, taking outta your stake, you know, three rounds in 'cause by the time it gets to the Western Conference finals- I, you can't, you can't do it...
20:37
you're gonna have nothing left. Right. You can't do it.
20:38
So, e- like, that's part of my push and pull with this as well, is I feel like there is some value here on Minnesota, but as somebody who already has something on them, do I just wanna sit back and wait and see what's gonna happen with this series because I've already got an investment that says I think they are better than what the market believes?
20:52
Okay. If you did not have the Wolves though 30 to 1, you'd be betting them here? Yeah, I think so. Okay. And I would, and I'd be fascinated to see.
20:59
We got a couple of days, right, obviously, until the series begins, and what the market does with this, right? I mean, we're talking about Phoenix minus 115.
21:05
Does it get up to the point where you might get, you know, even money plus 105- Yeah... plus 110 on Minnesota by the time we get to the tip-off? Might. Yeah. Might. How about the Eastern Conference?
21:13
The Bucks and the Pacers play in the first round. It's the three versus the six. It did not go well for the Bucks against Indy in the regular season, and yet the Bucks are, at DraftKings, a 245 favorite.
21:27
The Pacers plus 195 on the take back now. By the way, ha, so this is, I tweeted this out yesterday. How about this little nugget?
21:33
Average closing total in the regular season series between the Bucks and the Pacers, so they played five games. Let me guess, 248 and a half. 254.9. That was the average.
21:42
The, the average closing total, this one opened up for game one 238 and a half. [laughs] Oh, yeah. So, like- Yeah...
21:47
we've come a long way, but what I'm interested in is while the Bucks are one and four against Indiana, they haven't played since January 3rd. Yeah, it's been a long time.
21:55
So yeah, so they have not faced Pascal Siakam with the Indiana Pacers, and the Pacers have not played them since Doc Rivers has taken over.
22:02
And while it hasn't gone particularly well, Doc has a losing record, the one thing you could say, Mitch, is they've gotten better defensively. With Adrian Griffin, they had a defensive rating of 117.8.
22:12
They gave up 119.2 points every 100 plays off of live rebounds defensively.
22:16
With Doc Rivers, 114.2, so about 3.6 points fewer per 100 possessions defensively overall, and off of live rebounds, their transition defense has gotten way better.
22:26
In fact, 5.1 points fewer per 100 plays off of live rebounds.
22:30
So you're playing an Indiana Pacers team that is not playing as fast anymore 'cause Pascal Siakam likes to play through the post, and they, they're effective, but they've got better defensively.
22:38
Uh, Giannis, again, is the big thing, right? Is he going to play? If you take Damian Lillard at his word, after he got hurt, Lillard told them that he suffered the same injury.
22:48
It caused him, it took two weeks for him to recover. That would put you right at the start of this series.
22:53
And if Giannis isn't gonna be available, I, I understand the price moving in favor of Indiana, but if you're telling me Giannis is gonna be there at start of game one, I don't know.
23:02
I, I feel like we might get to a point where the, if the price gets low enough, you could talk me into getting back here on Indiana, or excuse me, on, on Milwaukee.
23:08
You know, so I'm, I was watching the NBA show last night, the playoff special on ESPN. Mm-hmm. And I, I totally agree with what Stephen A. Smith said.
23:16
He, he says that just by watching it, doesn't look like Damian Lillard even wants to be there. Sure. And we should note too, by the way, since Tyrese Haliburton's injury, remember he got hurt really bad. Yeah.
23:24
He went from 23 points a game, essentially 24, to just 17. Yeah. 40 fun- 49% shooting from the floor, 45% since the injury. He's not been the same. NFL draft up next. It's coming up Thursday, next Thursday.
23:36
Could this be a tell for who this team is drafting in the top 10? [upbeat rock music] This is Follow the Money on VSiN.
23:52
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24:05
You don't even need a pro subscription, so you can check out where the money and bets are moving today in Major League Baseball and future events as well, so you can get an early look at the play-in games in the NBA.
24:14
Check it out now, vsin.com/splits. April is awesome. Next Thursday already [laughs] we get the NFL draft. I can't believe it. It came quickly and slowly- Oh... at the same time. You're right. Yep.
24:23
Okay, so the quarterback market here in the first round, the... All right, here you go. This gets you fired up more than anything, I, I believe. Yes, it does. So here in Las Vegas at sta- Station Casinos, the-...
24:35
prop opened up a long time ago. Uh, I wanna say that was either late February or early March. Yeah, Chuck opened up pretty early. He did, yeah. He did a great job with all these markets, right?
24:43
And that, I think, peaked late last week over four and a half quarterbacks to go in the first round. What was the biggest number you saw? Uh, on the overs, like minus 320, I wanna say. I think I saw minus 350.
24:55
Okay, yeah. W- we're somewhere in that range, yep. In that range. So the under was plus 260 at the high point. That's for sure the high point, yep. Yeah. That's coming down here.
25:02
Also at DraftKings now, over four and a half quarterbacks is minus $2. The under is plus 160 this morning. So you've been saying this since the... I think, I think the college football season was still going on.
25:13
Well, [laughs] he- When you were basically saying, "I can't wait to bet the under on the quarterback prop." Well, so this is my thing for, for years now.
25:20
I have, I, I have bet under on quarterbacks in the first round every single year since the draft has started. Oh, good, good for you. We've done this. I have not. Good for you.
25:26
And, and my, my whole thing, and for those who don't know, so we've had seven years now. This will be the eighth year. In the last seven years, six years we've gone under the total for quarterbacks in the first round.
25:35
And as I always point out, there's a caveat. The one year it went over, that was Lamar Jackson's year, the number actually closed five.
25:41
So if you got the right number, you're actually sitting at 6-0-1 to the under if you've played this the right way since NFL draft betting has been a thing.
25:49
And my thing has just always been, like, you know, we, we give quarterbacks too much credit, right, when it comes to the conversations around them. We also overvalue where these guys might end up going.
25:57
And you get, like, perfect examples. You know, Mitch, the mo- the... I always think the perfect example is the Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett year, right?
26:04
Where everybody and their mother was telling you, "You know, I watch these guys. I don't think they're first round picks." And yet the market's like, "That three and a half shaded to the over."
26:11
One guy goes in the first round. I think, was that also Desmond Ritter? Yes. Yeah. Desmond Ritter, I think it was the Matt Corral draft as well, if I remember correctly. Yeah, I think you're right. Yep. Yeah.
26:18
I mean, you go back to last year and, and, and it's even around the, the mock drafts and the information that are out there. Th- there's headlines. "Will Levis, Indianapolis Colts," right?
26:26
That was supposed to be the connection. Will Levis was supposed to go number four to Indianapolis. A year ago next week, it took off on Reddit. Yep, the Reddit thing. [laughs] He might go number one overall.
26:35
He's telling these guys. My cousin told my milkman that, uh- [laughs]... time to fill up. Will, yeah, Will Levis is telling people he's going number one overall. And, and by the way, obviously the market fell for it.
26:43
But, like, this has always just kind of been my thing is we kind of, we do this all the time and, and sure enough, it happened again this year.
26:49
So I, I've actually been very, like, uh, somewhat alone on this, where I actually kind of feel like we're doing this again with J.J. McCarthy, where I don't think he's actually gonna go as high as we expect.
26:58
You know, a lot of people keep going, "You know, one, two, three, four could be quarterbacks." We're starting to see some pushback on that.
27:02
Uh, Dane Brugler, for those who don't know, works at "The Athletic," one of the more respected NFL draft guys out there. Hell yeah. Came out with his beast. He's got J.J.
27:08
McCarthy as actually the 21st select- you know, 21st overall. He's got him on a first, second grade. First round, second round grade. Yeah. Yep. Yep. So I think he's gonna go a little bit later than we expect.
27:16
But guys like Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., solidly second to third round guys according to Brugler.
27:22
You see guys like Todd McShay, I know you guys played the audio right last week, where he's telling Ryan Russillo, "Everybody that I have spoken to has a," what, "at best a second round grade on Bo Nix."
27:32
Well- And they're calling him a backup. Yep, they all think he's going to be a backup. Penix, polarizing, but again, consistently...
27:38
By the way, I think it's crazy, but consistently behind Bo Nix in a lot of the different things in terms of- Which I don't get. Right. But either way,
27:45
I have become more and more, because of the returns over the last six years, but also just because as more information comes out and as we get closer to the draft, it's becoming more and more likely that, again, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr.
27:58
are going to be second to third round selections. And I think it would ju- it just makes more sense. Let me ask you this. I- if a book posted five and a half quarterbacks
28:06
and the under w- like, how high would you bet that to the under? I mean, that's, I, to, to me- Would you-... the value would be insane on five and a half. Would you go- You'd have to set it- Would you go, like, under...
28:14
You would easily bet, like, minus $3. Yeah. Oh, yeah. I mean, I- Would you bet, like, minus $5 on that? I think, yeah, if you had the bankroll to do it, yes. I mean, 'cause...
28:21
And I was texting with Doug Kazerian about this, and he brought this up to me too, where on five and a half, like, given the way the market opened, theoretically you should be opening that on, like, minus 1,000 on an under or something like that.
28:31
Like, if, if you really look at how that should be priced.
28:35
So, oh yeah, like, if for whatever reason you got five and a half under minus, like, 350, I think the actual, like, value in that percentage would be astronomical. Here's what I'm gonna do.
28:45
Because, uh, there are so many books, I don't have access to all of them, but if anybody sees that number out there, can you please tweet the show? Yeah. Uh, with a screen grab of that. @VSINLive, @MitchMossRadio.
28:55
He's @meJBT. I'm looking specifically for how many quarterbacks will go in the first round if a book has five and a half.
29:02
I'm curious of what the juice is as we sit here now a week and a half before the event takes place. Now, this is a good tweet from Steve Palazzolo, Pro Football Focus.
29:12
He pointed out, did the math on this, looked at all the numbers. New Falcons head coach, Raheem Morris, his Rams defense had 355 snaps where at least one edge defender dropped into coverage last year, most in the league.
29:25
He broke down the most coverage snaps among top edges this year in the draft. Look at this. Yep. Uh, Dallas Turner sticks out like a sore thumb.
29:34
It's 238 JBT, and nobody else is even cl- this is like he, he's lapping the field by five times the amount. Yes. So he seems like a, you know, uh, this is timely reference, um, he seems like a hand-in-glove fit, right?
29:46
You know, with Raheem Morris. So, so when you look at what Raheem Morris wants to do with some of his edge rushers, I think it makes a lot of sense.
29:53
And by the way, like, I've seen two mock drafts that have Jared Verse at that position i- in terms of for Atlanta instead of a guy- Yeah... like Dallas Turner.
30:02
Lance Zierlein, one of them, and he said, "I'm gonna plant my flag on Verse going eighth overall to the Falcons." Sure. And, and look, it makes sense, but this to me pushed it over the edge. So I, I added a little bit.
30:10
By the, by the way, the numbers moved. I know I was texting about you this last week. Dallas Turner to go eighth overall at one point was plus 340. It's now plus 250 to go eighth overall. Oh, it came down a bunch. Okay.
30:18
So the nice number. So it came down almost, you know, a full buck. But, like, I, I think that's still worth it.
30:22
When you're talking about, again, just like a plus price, and going back to what we're talking about with the quarterbacks, you know, like, betting under at plus 260, totally worth it when you have the history that we do with quarterbacks.
30:32
Same thing here where you have this at least fit. You have a team that's clearly looking for an edge rusher, that a lot of people think are gonna go that direction.
30:38
You have a coach that likes to use his edge rushers in certain situations, and you have an edge rusher coming out that has experience dropping into coverage and doing those things.
30:47
And I thought at, like, at plus 340, I actually still think at plus 250, that's still worth putting something on here with Turner going eighth. And by the way, specifically it's Turner to go eighth overall.
30:55
So if the Falcons trade back and draft him, obviously you get screwed because you're not gonna be there. Right.
30:59
I don't think there's any reason for the Falcons who are gonna get their first pick of the best defensive player to move out of that spot. I don't know if they're gonna trade out Right, you know?
31:07
I don- I don't think that's gonna be a team that does. Maybe they do. Maybe I'm wrong on that, because so many trades can happen. I think they're gonna stay put at number eight.
31:13
You're gonna get your pick of every defensive player. And if they... You're exactly right, and if they do, like, the edge position to be selected by the Falcons, I saw at minus 250. Yep.
31:22
So if it's gonna be an edge player, if that's... If it's that big of a favorite, well, it's probably going to be Turner or Verse. Yeah. Well, and it's, it's so cool.
31:28
Like, it's, it's crazy how, like, so stuff like this shapes markets. So for example, if you actually look at the first defensive player drafted market, the three edge guys are actually all the top three picks.
31:38
So it's like- Yeah... so it's, it's, uh, Dallas Turner, it's Jared Verse, and it's Laiatu Latu who are those top three selections, because we just know that, hey, Atlanta seems really likely- Yeah...
31:46
that they're gonna have the first defensive player off the board, and they want an edge rusher. So it's more than likely gonna be one of these three guys. I'll give you another one, too.
31:53
You can find the first position drafted by the Chargers. Offensive lineman is minus 125. That number actually sc- I like it so much it scares me. Yeah. I mean, it, it...
32:05
Is J- Jim Harbaugh the biggest BS-er in the NFL by his comments two weeks ago, where he basically said he was talking glowingly about the offensive line and how important it is to build success, and they're gonna run the football.
32:18
Greg Romans, the new offensive coordinator, based on his history with other teams, they love to run the ball.
32:23
Everybody just thinks because there's no more Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, they're automatically gonna go wide receiver fifth or wherever they might pick in the first round if they trade back.
32:31
That's, to me, it's not gonna be the case. To me, it's gonna be offensive lineman. Yeah. And, and I also think, again, uh, I would say the only re- the reality in which they don't is if Marvin Harrison Jr.
32:41
is there at five, right?
32:42
If they actually go quarterbacks for the first four picks, which I don't think is gonna happen, and then you're sitting there if you're the Chargers, and the best wide receiver prospect in a while is just sitting there, that's probably where you get burned.
32:51
But I would agree with you, and I would actually say, too, if you trade back, that would, say, that increases the likelihood of them potentially going after one of these offensive linemen. It's a deep class. Sure.
32:58
That's, I mean, that's, by the way, that's also one of the ones I bet, uh, over nine and a half offensive linemen first round at about minus- Oh, you take that one? Yeah, minus 140. Okay.
33:06
Um, I haven't seen anything less than, like, 10. In, like, every mock you're seeing 10 or more? Yes, everything I've read. Yeah. Okay. How about the cornerbacks prop? Did you do anything with that number?
33:19
No, I haven't- 'Cause those, those are the three big ones that are available, the offensive line- Yep... the cornerbacks, well, the wide receivers are in there as well, along with the QBs.
33:25
Yeah, the, the common number that I've seen in these mocks that I've put together is, is five for the corners. They're...
33:30
On the low end, it's four, but, like, five is the most common number that you see in the first round, and I think you're looking at five and a half as the number for them. Yeah. Yeah, so- Yep...
33:37
I think I, I guess you'd lean under, uh, 'cause it doesn't seem like there's... It seems to be strong, but it seems to be top-heavy. Also tempted by a big price on the under safeties, under a half.
33:45
[sniffs] The only kid that might come in is, uh, I think it's, uh, the, the safety out of Minnesota. I think is the one that might- That's the only guy... yeah, that might sneak in there.
33:52
I've seen actually some mocks of the Packers taking him there. Really? Uh, who knows, because the Packers' pick has been all over the map. Yeah.
33:58
Either offensive lineman, cornerback generally is the number one pick, but also people are making the case for linebacker as well for Green Bay.
34:05
So you still like the Titans' offensive lineman at, even though it's minus $3 now? Yeah. Think it'll be worth it. I, uh, some spots are as high as minus 500. It, they seem- Is it that big, okay.
34:13
Uh, given, given what you've seen them add, given where the market's going, if you can find, like, $3 or better.
34:17
Again, in the NFL draft, you mentioned it, you don't like to lay poi- In the NFL draft, it's based off information. You're gonna be laying prices a lot. I thought that was worth it.
34:23
All right, so up next we're gonna do door number one or door number two. JBT is gonna be great on this. He has to pick one. Which quarterback is going as a first rounder? We'll ask him coming up next.
34:34
[upbeat rock music] Always follow the money. That's what I always say. You always follow the money. Yeah, yeah.
34:51
This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Paulie Howard on VSiN. Welcome in. It is Follow the Money here on VSiN, the sports betting network. This show is brought to you by DraftKings.
35:04
Mitch Moss along with Jonathan Von Tobel. He's in for Paulie. Paulie is on vacation this week. Starting this hour off talking about NBA, the play-in games, and the first round series prices.
35:14
Tom Byrne does a great job covering this sport on Mad Dog Sports Radio, SiriusXM. He joins us here on the Progressive guest line. Uh, Tom, thanks for the time today. How are you? I'm very well, gentlemen. Fired up.
35:24
I tell you, they got lucky again, the NBA with this play-in tournament. LeBron, Steph, Joel Embiid, it's crazy. It really is. Must-watch television tomorrow night and on Wednesday.
35:34
Let's begin with the Lakers game as they are currently, well, pretty much a one-point dog at New Orleans. JBT and I were speculating earlier, we think that the Lakers are going to go off as the favorite here.
35:47
Uh, do you agree with that? Who do you like in the game? Yeah, I definitely think the golf is the favorite, but I don't know that it'll be much more than a point. I think it could be pretty firm. Hmm.
35:57
I took the point and a half, to be honest with you.
35:59
I know everybody's annoyed about this in New Orleans, all the Lakers, "This is not the matchup we want, they just pummeled us," but I think what you guys wanna get into is fascinating, and that is the idea that the Lakers might not be as motivated as you'd assume in this sort of spot, because the winner gets Denver, and that's a harsh reality for the Lakers, who are not beating the Nuggets.
36:18
That's a five-game series. All due respect to LeBron and AD, that's not lasting that long, and I think the Lakers know that.
36:25
And this isn't to kill Oklahoma City, 'cause they're a young team that doesn't make a lot of young team sort of mistakes. It's weird.
36:30
You can kind of trust them, but they're a thin front line, and most importantly, they're incredibly inexperienced.
36:36
And if you're the Lakers, you feel much better about the Thunder, and so that's a little wrinkle that you gotta remember in this game. So how, Tom, how do you think that manifests, right?
36:44
Like, I don't think that we're going to get an injury report tomorrow and LeBron James and Anthony Davis aren't playing. Maybe it's a possibility. Wow. But is this more of like a- Yeah...
36:51
"All right, we're down by, like, eh, 10 in the last couple of minutes. Instead of pushing for this, we're gonna call the dogs off"? How... If that does... If that is a thought, how does that manifest in a game like this?
37:01
Exactly. How do you quantify it exactly? Yeah. I, I don't know. You know, we probably spend too much time as handicappers trying to dissect this sort of thing, if we're fair about it. But- I think that's what it is.
37:11
If they're down, it's getting later in the game, I don't know if they would go as hard in that spot as they would otherwise.
37:18
Like, they might think about starting to get some guys some rest here, thinking, "All right, not the end of the world. We'll rest up. We'll play Sacramento or Golden State."
37:25
Now, that is, you know, that's dicey whether you play Sacramento or Golden State. They're gonna be dangerous in their own way. Now it's one and done.
37:30
They haven't played well against Sacramento all year, and Golden State has Steph. And so yeah, that's the question. How do you quantify that? That's what I've been asking myself with this entire handicap.
37:40
How do I quantify the old heads? Hmm. Because I'm seeing value with all these teams playing the old heads. I like the Pelicans plus one and a half.
37:47
This is gonna be a little surprising to many, but I like Sacramento plus two and a half. I'm thinking about taking Minnesota against Phoenix and Kevin Durant minus a point and a half.
37:57
I wonder if that could get a one somewhere in some shop.
38:00
You know, maybe I'm underrating the idea that these old heads, Durant, Steph, and LeBron could take it to that next level that they haven't been willing to show in the regular season, but I'm not 100% sure I'm buying that, and the numbers certainly don't support it.
38:13
Okay. How about in the Eastern Conference, then, the playing number with the Sixers, the seven as we speak, the Heat the eight, the winner here will move on, uh, the Knicks looming.
38:23
Now, the Sixers are a four-and-a-half point favorite in this game against the Heat and the play-in side. What do you make of that number? Yeah, I made it the same number. That's a great number.
38:31
I, I don't know that you could play that.
38:33
I think the Philadelphia 76ers are the ultimate wild card because when Joel Embiid's 100%, I've never seen a Sixer in my lifetime, and I go to a lot of games, has had more impact on both ends of the floor.
38:42
The reality is he's usually about 80% of himself in the postseason, and just that difference alone is the difference between losing to Toronto in seven or beating them, plus he missed time, losing to Boston or beating them as he was banged up again.
38:53
You know, always dragging a leg, broken faces. And so this year the question is was he out yesterday because the Phillies...
39:00
I'm sorry, the 76ers were confident enough they'd win the game anyway, and they, you know, were gonna do that, so it probably makes sense, or that little tweak that we saw the other night that he came back and played, is that a bigger deal than we know?
39:13
And so it's hard to really say what we're gonna get, but, I, I think Miami is dangerous. I don't think we're gonna find a 50,000 on their shoulders again this year.
39:21
I think Philadelphia survives and advances and plays with New York. All right. But four and a half is a good number. So what about this one? Uh, talk me off the ledge here.
39:28
I, I bet on the Hawks to win the division before the season started. They stink. They can't do anything. [laughs] But Trae Young's back, and we've seen them flex their muscles in the play-in.
39:36
They smoked the heat last year. What do you make of their matchup here with Chicago? Uh, this game is awful, is it not? [laughs] The only people who are gonna be watching this are the handicappers.
39:45
This is like the Cleveland-Orlando series. Just give that to NBA TV and go away. Um- [laughs] Listen, you know, neither of these teams are any good, so, uh, it's hard to trust either. The number to me is right on point.
39:58
I see what you're saying. Maybe Atlanta, they've been through these sort of battles before. The Dejounte Murray-Trae Young pairing, though, JBT, has been a massive disappointment. Yep. They just don't gel well at all.
40:08
You know, Dejounte Murray's a good two-way player, but he hasn't impacted winning the way I thought he would in Atlanta. Trae Young is just a horrific defender.
40:15
It's the same sort of trouble that Milwaukee's having with Dame Lillard out there on the perimeter. He just can't defend and it kills you. And so this is a stay-away game for me.
40:23
You want to play an in-game, try to get a feel, that might make a little bit more sense. Follow the money here on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
40:30
Our guest, Tom Byrne, does a great job with the NBA on Mad Dog Sports Radio, SiriusXM. You can follow him on X. He's at, number one, Tom Byrne. How about some series prices, then?
40:39
And JBT and I were also kicking this around, Tom. We're, we don't think that many people are gonna make the case for the Clippers.
40:46
Like, when you see ESPN's poll come out probably later on today, like, let's say there's 16, 17 of their experts picking, I think maybe two will pick the Clippers because of the Mavericks' recent play, but it's basically a pick 'em.
40:57
Right. Uh, do you give the Clippers a pretty good chance to win this series, though? Yeah, I have them winning the series in five. Okay. Wow, there you go.
41:03
I th- yeah, I, I think we can trust Kawhi Leonard, and then we saw last year before the injury he was taking it to Kevin Durant. I mean, it was, it was embarrassing, the man. Yep.
41:11
And so I think you're gonna get that version of Kawhi back. And listen, James Harden is not somebody you wanna trust.
41:16
I get it, but, hey, if, if we're gonna be fair about this, I mean, how about the game one performance with no Embiid on the road in Boston to step back to win the game? Game five, I was in the building.
41:25
Game goes to overtime. He's the best player on the floor. So, I mean, there are times when he plays well enough.
41:29
Paul George is another guy who's got that reputation as a choke artist, and okay, but if you go back to his Indiana games, everybody thought he was gonna be the next great postseason player.
41:38
So these sort of things could change on a whim. Russell Westbrook coming off the bench is a much better spot. He's not forcing things. We all love Ty Lue. Well, let's see him figure this thing out.
41:48
I know Dallas is red hot, and they are scary because they're defending. That was always their discernable weakness, and now they are defending. But home court advantage was worth 2.2 points a game in the regular season.
41:58
It's always worth over somewhere between four and five per 100 possessions a game. I gotta knock that down a little bit because the better team usually has home court, but home court is a, still a big deal in the NBA.
42:10
Um, uh, so l- actually, that leads me to my next question for you.
42:12
Overall, so we saw last year, Tom, like, uh, home court advantage in, in the regular season, uh, was fine, but then they really ratcheted up in the postseason, and I, we, I think- Yep... I was looking at it.
42:22
I had it about, like, five, maybe four and a half points. What do you think the, the r- ratcheting up home court, what do you think it's worth here in the postseason? I have it at 3.7 right now. Okay.
42:32
Um, yeah, I lowered it. I had it at 4.3 based on points per possession last year.
42:37
It was 4.6 two years ago, 4.3 this past year, but I'd knock it down a little over a half point just based on the reality that more times than not, the better team's gonna be home.
42:47
If it's a best of five, three out of th- three to five, the better team's home, right? If it's a seven, four to seven, the better team's home.
42:53
So I knocked it down a peg, uh, but 3.7 is still a massive adjustment, and so I do think that's necessary. You can't handicap it the same way you would in the regular season.
43:01
And I do think that applies to the playing game. Do you agree with that, JBT, not just the playoffs? Oh, I think absolutely. I mean, they're mini game sevens, right? Yeah. It's, it's win or go home, essentially. Yeah.
43:10
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I, I absolutely agree. I've heard people say otherwise. I don't know why. Uh, anyway. All right. Well, you mentioned that you are looking at the Timberwolves here.
43:19
Uh, at a very small number at home against the Suns. They played yesterday. Was, uh, Suns blew them out. What do you make of the series price then, too?
43:25
You wanna add a little Minnesota to the, uh, portfolio, as the Suns are about a buck 15 favorite here? Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. You could put a little something on Minnesota.
43:34
Now, look, here's the thing that worries your bets about Minnesota. They have long stretches where they don't score. Yep. And that's the problem.
43:40
They got a middle of the pack offense, but defensively, all right, you wanna make a big deal about Orlando, that's great, but you can't give Isaac 35 minutes. I think this is the best defensive team in the game.
43:50
They're so big up front, and Anthony Edwards, man, he's the ultimate wild card. Now, there are games where he can lose some games. He's just so darn inefficient. But other times he looks like the next Michael Jordan.
44:00
It's ridiculous. Fun guy to watch. Everybody wants to kill Gobert.
44:03
Everybody's into analytics and everybody watches, thinks that Victor Wembanyama should be Defensive Player of the Year, and I think they have a great argument. Uh, but Gobert, nonetheless, is a great defender.
44:12
He's a definite big-time impact maker with his ability to protect the rim and help side and everything else. So Phoenix is a team that hasn't stood up all year. Now, they did show a little gumption the other night.
44:21
They're down 35-4 first quarter to Clippers. They did bounce back. They got their revenge, if you will, a couple days later. What a good g- pardon me, good game a couple days ago.
44:29
But I haven't trusted this Phoenix team all year. Beal's shot, I think that makes a lot of sense. All right, Milwaukee, we're under 250 now, minus 245 against Indiana.
44:38
We don't know about Giannis yet, but what do you make of this series? I was shocked at the opening price. At, JBT, I actually saw you put out the series price.
44:47
I was shocked, and I wasn't surprised you came out maybe an hour later with the adjusted price, 'cause I think a lot of us were looking, oh, wow, okay, so we gotta make sure we get in on this.
44:55
I mean, why are the Pacers... I, I know you don't wanna make too big a deal about the end-season tournament, but they beat them on the way there, okay? They've got maybe the best offense of the sport when it's cooking.
45:05
Now, the other thing is Milwaukee is 17 and 19 since Doc Rivers took over. Yeah. Have a good laugh about that, by the way, 17. [laughs] I mean, are you kidding me?
45:13
They fired a guy who was 30 and 13, and Doc Rivers comes in and he's beating his own chest and he's 17 and 19? That's a little tough to take. But they're not playing well at all. They can't defend out on the perimeter.
45:23
I thought they'd be marginally better in the off-season because they feel the loss of Jrue Holiday and their starting two guard. I don't even know that they are better.
45:30
I think ultimately they get by maybe a seven-game series, uh, but there still was a ton of value in Indiana and, and the series. Uh, I forget what it was. What was the one and a half games?
45:40
I forget what the price was now is what I looked at right away. Uh, let's see. One and a half, I got Milwaukee, excuse me, Milwaukee minus, uh, let's see. Even money.
45:49
M- Milwaukee minus one and a half, even money, and if you wanna lay one and a half with the Indiana Pacers, you get three to one. Yeah. The plus one and a half with the Pacers was good, too. All right, yep. Yeah.
45:59
That's another one with value. All right, pal. Good talking to you. You can follow Tom on X. He's @1TomByrne, B-Y-R-N-E. Catch him on Mad Dog Sports Radio on SiriusXM as well. Thanks, Tom. We appreciate it. Thanks, man.
46:10
Anytime, fellas. Be good. There you go. Uh, he joined us here on the Progressive Guest Line. That's the one that sticks out to me big time, everything he just said- Yep... about the Bucs and the Pacers.
46:19
We'll recap the betting action from the weekend, the huge prices, the names to miss the cut, the upsets in the NBA, EPL, UFC next here on Win- on, uh, Follow the Money.
46:39
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