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Apr 15, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 15, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 15, 2025
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34:48
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. What did I forget? Sirius XM Channel 158. Looking forward to the show today.
0:21
I'm Gil Alexander, radio's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin to my left, everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. [laughs] He had his mouth open, so I just wanted to, I just wanted to drag it out.
0:34
That was well done. That was well done. [laughs] Hey, Gil, how are you this morning? Oh, I'm great. [laughs] Uh, Drew Dinsick will join us today.
0:40
Looking forward to that because, uh, we obviously have the play-in games beginning tonight, the seven-eights tonight, the nine-10s tomorrow, and then the NBA playoffs.
0:47
He will have projected series numbers from his sort of, uh, modeling standpoint juxtaposed against the actual. In that process, we will find value. Uh, his thoughts on the NFL draft, has he bet anything yet?
1:01
I, I, the last we spoke to him, it's like it's not liquid enough. I don't know if he has. We have. I have. We'll jump into those momentarily. Uh, Paul Car will join us, a little Champions League leg number two.
1:11
Do you have leg two fever? Let's go. Aggregate score fever coming up with Paul Car. Mark Borchardt from an undisclosed location in the desert talking Major League Baseball with us.
1:21
A lot of people don't know this, but, uh, he was, uh, one of the original members of NWA. I don't know if you know that. [laughs] It was... Well, we'll get to that.
1:29
It was, it was Dre, it was Eazy, and who am I forgetting? Who would forget that? Cube, Yella, and I think it was, it wasn't supposed to be Ren. It was supposed to be- No...
1:36
Mark Borchardt before he decided, "I'm doing baseball analytics." [laughs] Uh, we'll do conference finals in the NBA. Speaking of the NBA, we'll do conference finals exact matchups. These are kind of cool.
1:45
Uh, so not NBA title, not finals, uh, matchup, but actual conference finals matchup. And remember, Kelly, if you take nothing else away from this show, it's the NBA finals, and it's the Stanley Cup Final.
1:58
That's, that- Remember, one is plural, and one is singular... that is absolutely right. If you learn anything, it's that. Never forget that.
2:03
We'll also do MLB best and worst record, as, or as we like to call it, Fezzik's favorite segment ever. [laughs] He loves that stuff. Loves that stuff. We'll do that.
2:11
Uh, I have made a bevy of bets, though, I guess finally in the NFL draft? 'Cause- Yeah, I, I mean, I hear you, but that's the, uh, same thing with Drew, right? It's a thing.
2:20
Like, you're, you're just kinda waiting for stuff to- Yeah... well, fir- first of all, I mean, we always talk about them not posting stuff. Not posting.
2:28
But I, I don't, are, are there that many bets you were eager for them to post anyways? Like, the top of the draft is still very, very up in the air to me. Very up in the air.
2:36
So the only bet that I had, first of all, should we do the tennis one first? I, I, I had five tennis plays last night. N- I put them in too late. Bill was probably asleep, so they didn't get on the website.
2:47
But let's just say the sign, there are signs that clay is returning its earth to its axis. So I have one tennis play left. It was the only favorite of the bunch. Uh, I do have Varvara Gracheva a little later on today.
3:01
Varvara Gracheva is the, uh, is the remaining tennis play. Uh, they're playing, there are two m- there are two clay court tournaments happening on the men's side globally on the ATP tour.
3:11
There are two on the, uh, on the ladies' side as well, and, um, that's the only one remaining. So just let's say there were good results over, this is Varvara Gracheva taking on Sonay Kartal. Gracheva is French.
3:22
She's playing in Rouen, France. I know I'm not pronouncing that correct, but that's the play. Uh, minus 125 is what I got her at. She's about minus 120 now, so you can actually get her for a few pennies better.
3:32
So now the NFL draft, Kelly. Uh, the only play that I had, and it was for a good size bet, was Travis Hunter to go number two. I got Travis Hunter last week at minus 135.
3:44
He's now minus 350-ish to go number two, so I'm very happy with the CLV on that anyway. [laughs] You know what they say about CLV, don't you? So I'm happy with that. I added four this morning, and to your point, Mr.
3:58
Bidlin, about, like, you said eager, but my excitement level on these is varying.
4:05
And let me start with the very first one that I made this morning, which is Matthew Golden plus 140 to be the first wide receiver selected.
4:13
Now, we had a question yesterday on Twitter, which I think was very appropriate, which is, "Hey, what do you talent evaluation, you know, on these teams?
4:19
Do they go with the best player available, or do they go with a need and all that stuff?" And I went ahead and said, like, "We are no talent evaluators,"
4:26
but if you're asking me to be a talent evaluator at wide receiver, I think Tedarrell McMillan would absolutely be the first wide receiver I pl- I pick no matter what my needs are.
4:36
That's just me, but as I look at these mocks, Matthew Golden is going in front of McMillan in, in a c- in a few cases.
4:44
We, we brought up the, uh, the Mel Kiper and the Daniel Jeremiah most recent mock drafts as two examples of that yesterday.
4:51
So I went ahead and bet Matthew Golden plus 140 to be the first wide receiver selected, and as I'm betting it, even though I'm betting it because the object, this just in, is to try to make money, as I'm doing it, it goes against what I myself would evaluate talent-wise.
5:08
Todd McShay, who obviously has made a career of, uh, being a draft guru himself, he believes that if 12 comes along, if the 12th pick comes along, and the Cowboys are sitting there with the opportunity to draft either Golden or McMillan- Mm-hmm...
5:24
that they will actually go McMillan as a better complement to CeeDee Lamb. However, Jeremiah [laughs] feels that Golden would be the ultimate complement to CeeDee Lamb. McMillan.
5:37
So, uh, no, he believes that Golden, so in other words, McShay says McMillan is the better complement. Uh, Jeremiah says that Golden is the better complement.
5:45
So anyway, I went ahead and made a numbers play on Golden at plus 140 just because that's what I'm seeing out there, even though I [laughs] myself would not draft that.
5:52
Yeah, I, I mean, I think that's, you know, going back to the question we got on Twitter yesterday, I was sitting here thinking about that a- as you were reading, is it's also, you know, best player, team need.
6:01
These are two very different types of wide receivers, and that's go- you know, if you, let's say- Well, Golden has the best 40 time of any wideout, I think... right.
6:08
Let's say that everybody thought these were two e- very equal, b- very equal wide receivers, but very different skill sets. It depends on what your t- what, what your team needs- But does-...
6:18
then in the wide receiver room... but they can't even agree on that, right? So McShay is saying, "Well, with McMillan-" Yeah, but I think the Cowb- I think that's a Cowboys thing and a CeeDee Lamb thing.
6:25
Correct, but just use the Cowboys at 12 because nobody has a wideout going before 12 that I've seen So let's say that happens where the Cowboys do have the opportunity to pick either.
6:34
McShay is saying, "Oh, you want the bigger wide out in McMillan, who's not necessarily the burner who can catch all of the 50/50 balls."
6:42
Whereas, you know, I don't necessarily buy that Jerry Jones would not be seduced by speed. Cor- oh, me, me. Yeah, yeah. So I went Golden plus 140, even though, again, that's not who I instinctively would, would draft.
6:55
Uh, the other ones that I did draft, total first round running backs, I went with the under two and a half. I know you had this. Mm-hmm. The price is more favorable now.
7:03
Maybe not quite as favorable as some of the numbers that were out there. I laid minus 186 on under two and a half running backs. Shoot, I guess I'm glad to see it just came back up a little bit. [laughs] A little bit.
7:13
I mean, you know, like, like you said, you could've gotten even a better number, but you know, in my shoes, I was wondering what the hell was going on with that.
7:19
I just would find it unbelievable if three running backs were drafted in the first round. Me too. Me too. I just would. Um, Tyler Warren over nine and a half, his draft position, I laid minus 258.
7:32
The Bears are sitting at 10. They are the one that he is most, the team that he is most mocked to, if you will. So I went over nine and a half on that. I, I can't imagine Tyler Warren is picked higher than that.
7:44
Could be wrong, don't believe it. And then this is the one that you and Felika have already been on. This is Ashton Jeanty over nine and a half draft position at plus 165.
7:54
I went ahead and did this, and because this is also, like with all of these, they're can you imagine this happening? Are the Raiders really gonna take Ashton Jeanty at six? I can't, I can't believe it.
8:04
Are they really gonna take a running back as great as he was in college? Really gonna take him at six? I'm gonna bet no at plus 165 over nine and a half. I like it. I like it. Jump on board. I agree. Um,
8:18
the, the other one I wanted to mention with Golden is we brought this up I think quick on the show last week, but you and I were talking about it off the air too, is the other one that's interesting with the Golden-McMillan stuff, um, and I did see McMillan's, uh, draft position did come down a little bit.
8:34
But remember we were talking about this. You, you had McMillan as the, as the, a minus two something favorite to be the first wide receiver drafted, and yet Matthew Golden actually had the slightly lower draft position.
8:46
It was at the time 17 and a half for Golden. Mm-hmm. 18 and a half for McMillan.
8:50
So worth pointing out, as you, as you, uh, intelligently said, you know, there could be a team where that one t- that one player specifically fits that, fits better, uh, maybe in that team's range i, in the, uh, in the draft order.
9:03
But that, that's another one worth pointing out. I, I, it's the I love McMillan, I'm all over McMillan on bets. Um, I even took a flyer the other day for him to go top 10 at five to one.
9:12
But, um, I, I mean, look, they are two very different wide receivers, and depending on what your team has on the roster already, one could make more sense than the other. Um,
9:22
yeah, and I don't even buy the McShay again with the McMillan-Golden need to Dallas. I'm not even sure I, I buy McShay's reason- I, I, I buy his reasoning, but I don't think Jerry follows through on that.
9:33
Anyway, the draft, nine days away. This just in. Nine days away from Green Bay. Um, are you ever gonna attend an NFL draft? Would you ever attend one of those m- mosh pits?
9:42
Uh, I went to the one that was here in Vegas for a little bit, but I didn't stay long. [laughs] Yeah. Where did you go? Wait, was, that was on Koval? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. They did it, like, by the Sphere sort of. Yeah.
9:54
Um- Back when there was no Sphere... I, I went for a bit. I did not stay for the entire time. Yeah. Yeah, doesn't seem like a, seems great on TV. To, to your point, yes. Yeah.
10:02
It was like, "Cool, this is a cool spectacle to check out for an hour. Let me get out of this mash of people now." We'll, uh, deep dive on this with Drew later, huh. See what I did? Deep dive with Drew. Hey.
10:11
Um- Having said that, though, why are they putting NFL drafts in, in Green Bay? Like, with all due respect to Green Bay, Wisconsin, like, this is like, like, we've seen it become kind of a cool travel thing.
10:20
Like, a million people came out here. Well, they get their draft. Nashville was crazy, but, like, partially it's 'cause you wanna go party in these cities.
10:26
Yeah, but I mean, they'll never get a Super Bowl, so give them a draft. Okay. [laughs] Okay, that's actually a good, fair, fair and correct response, Gil. [laughs] New York. Thank you.
10:34
Um, did you add, we'll get the deep dive with Drew later on the NBA playoff series. Did you add any plays? Uh, bet the Warriors tonight. Or what do you have total? I did bet the Warriors tonight.
10:41
I do have the Warriors tonight as well, but I did that, uh, largely because Carl Sack came on the show yesterday. He said Warriors, and then he later released it to his clients about two, three hours later.
10:51
So pays to listen- Yeah... to a numbers game. Carl Sack, uh, he's all over the Warriors. By the way, I will say this, and we will get to NBA exact, uh, conference match-ups here, uh, momentarily, here on the other side.
11:02
There is one that I, uh, predictably love. You can almost predict it in advance. Yeah, there's one I li- there's one I like too. I really like on there as well. Okay. Yep.
11:10
But you didn't, you didn't add anything besides Warriors tonight? Yeah, I got Warriors. No serious? So Warriors six and a half. Uh, laid that with 115. Wanted to grab that before the six and a halves disappeared.
11:19
Did, well, I was texting, me and Drew were texting a little bit back and forth yesterday, just, uh, picking each other's minds on some of this stuff. He, I think he kind of s- see, we'll talk to him obviously.
11:27
We saw it a little similar to me. My numbers aren't far off from where it is. But I mean, I think match-up wise it is a bad draw for, for Memphis. Do like Gold- Golden State.
11:36
So played them, and I got Heat-Bulls in the other, under in the other play in game tomorrow. All right. There's a Carl Sack-Veesen NBA celebrity, uh, handicapping NBA playoff contest coming up. You in?
11:47
I, I, I gotta catch up on my text messages, yeah. You're in, baby. Exact match-ups next. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
12:02
This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on Veesen. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at Veesen, the sports betting network, Veesen.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
12:13
Gil Alexander with my little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Yeah. Losing, losing weight before our eyes. You doing good? You, you feel good? Feeling good. Looking good too. Oh, thanks, buddy. That's all that matters.
12:23
All right. What ma- what it matters if I feel good? Remember, it's better to- As long as I look good... it's better to look good than to feel good.
12:29
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, we will, uh- We will get into some, uh, baseball best records and worst records a little later on the hour, but we gotta bring in a gentleman, uh, 'cause we have much to talk about with him.
12:40
He is the co-host of not one but two podcasts, The Deep Dive, which he does with his buddy Andy Molator, Dincic Classic, as we like to call it, and then of course, uh, NBC Sports Bet The Edge with Jay Croucher, which now features a daily podcast each and every morning, which is why we have him at hour number two now, not hour number one.
12:57
It's Drew Dincic, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper. How you doing, Drew? It's going well. Um- [laughs] The, uh- That's contemplative, yeah. Nice.
13:09
Well, you know what I mean, like, uh, last two weekends, uh, Florida, big national championship. Didn't have any skin on that, so I was kinda, "Eh, whatever." And then, uh, you know, Rory, big Masters.
13:20
And while it, I, I'm conflicted on that one because, like, watching it was obviously, it was so big for sports in general, it was great for the sport of golf, um, but I was against him, so it's like I, you know, I, I didn't, uh, ultimately have any, uh, positive, uh, financial outcome there.
13:38
And so you're just like, "Oh, this is great. Great. Wonderful."
13:41
Like two, two time, two, two big sporting events in a row that, yeah, I'm kind of on the sidelines for and just have to, uh, you know, find some, some, uh, reason to care about them.
13:50
But, uh, but the Masters, I, I, you know, I gotta say that, that Sunday rollercoaster ride with Rory was absolutely wild. And, uh- It was unbelievable. Um, yeah. Yeah. Can, can...
13:59
Do you wanna briefly say, we'll move on from the Masters, but do you wanna briefly tell folks, uh, about the Calcutta, how that went for you? Uh, I mean, there's not much to say. Broke even. [laughs] Broke even. Okay.
14:09
Involved a lot of money- Had some, had-... and a lot of money. Yes. Yeah. Yes. That's it. And broke even. A lot, a lot in, a lot back, and ultimately, uh, nothing happens. Okay.
14:18
So, um, there was a moment though when, uh, we had a, a good percentage of the pot coming back to us and then- Ugh... uh, uh, Luka Oberg, uh, decided to, uh, play- [laughs]...
14:29
the 18th hole wreck golf style, and I think he puked something like 70K worth of equity- Oh... uh, back into the Patrick Reed bucket as, at the same time, Patrick Reed dunks it on 17- Yeah...
14:40
and Oberg ejects, and it was just like a f- straight one-to-one transfer of all of the profit we had in the pot, so that was lovely. Uh, since we're country clubbing, let's move to tennis for a second. Mm-hmm.
14:51
I was just mentioning to, uh, folks, um, there are signs now that the Earth is returning to its axis here on clay. [laughs] You have a, it's going the same way for you. Do you have anything left today?
15:03
Ooh, I don't think I do. Let me take a look. Oh, yeah, of course I do. Uh, I'm against, uh, Skamnori. Uh, Hatchinoff plays amazing tennis at Barcelona. Uh, I have him two-zero, uh, and I laid the games against Scam.
15:16
Okay. There you go. Drew loves a fate of Skamnori, the author of- [laughs]... the nickname Skamnori. Uh, I still have Gracheva to go today. That's my only favorite, uh, today. But it's, it, it, it's looking good on clay.
15:27
Clay to the rescue.
15:29
Uh, to the NFL draft, you have not fired away here, and we were just talking off air, 'cause I noticed it this morning too, and I started to bet some, uh, in a faraway place, or just, it appeared on Bookmaker.
15:42
But, uh, nothing too enticing, right, for you? Yeah, I mean, like, e- even if I knew I had the nuts in terms of information this year, the, um, the throttle is, uh, is really, really tight, right?
15:56
Like let's say I knew with pure certainty that, uh, some guy was gonna go fifth, right? And his over-under is five and a half, and it's like, okay, well, uh, I can get 200 a click, and it's already minus 250.
16:14
[laughs] It really- So it's like- It's really not that exciting. I get it. All right. So for, for 10 days I'm gonna lock up, uh, you know, what, $50,000 to win 10? You know?
16:26
It's, it's, it's tough, it's tough to really kind of, um, uh, to go that hard, uh, at, at this point with the fact that number one, a lot of the information is still very, very soft.
16:38
Um, and uh, you know, the liquidity is just very, very thin. Um, so it's, uh, it's, it's really, um, probably gonna be a very last-minute thing, if anything at all this year.
16:48
And, uh, I remember last year it was, you know, it's gotten gradually less- Yes... uh, you know, less, um, uh, you know, lower and lower liquidity year over year.
16:58
Um, so this trend has been coming for a while, so it's not surprising, and I'm not gonna be bellyaching about it because as I look at the board today and I look at the NBA bets I have, there's plenty for me to bet on.
17:08
[laughs] So nobody needs to shed a tear that I'm not getting action here. Yeah. Well let's- Um, but, uh-... let's get to that. Let's get to that. [laughs] Because, because there is plenty- But yeah, I know...
17:15
there's plenty of ways to- This time, this time next week though, let's revisit it 'cause- Okay... you know, we, we could have, we could, we, limits go up a week of, surely, so th- there might be some stuff.
17:24
Ellie, if I had a dime for every time you've said to me, "What am I gonna do? Bet 50,000 just to win 10,000?" I'd be so rich. It's, it's just a daily problem. You know how, you know how it goes. Oh.
17:33
Drew, I just wanna go back, you said the t-top of the board being pretty soft. Uh, where, where do you think, how many guys do you think are 80%-plus locked in?
17:43
Do you have, a-a, is there more than Cam Ward at that point? Uh, yeah, Hunter and Carter are two and three I would say almost certainly. You've g- Like people- Okay, so, so Hunter two.
17:53
I guess- You have Carter to the Giants for sure? Oh yeah, al- almost certainly. So this- I, the pe- so the people- So this Shedeur Sanders working out with the Giants is just a smokescreen? No.
18:04
They know that he could, his price went from third to, like, 30th. Third. So now he, he's back in play for them with their second pick, which is why they're doing their homework. Uh, almost certainly.
18:13
Like, this is not a we're not ch- we're changing our mind about pick three. This is a maybe we flip-flop and we go up to thirty-one, 32 with the, the Eagles, and we go take Shedeur there, right?
18:25
I think the Browns are thinking that, I think the Giants are thinking that, and I think they should because, you know, ultimately, um, both of those situations, both of those quarterback rooms are atrocious.
18:36
And, uh, Sanders at least is, uh, you know, is an, is a, is an upside possibility. I'll, I'll, you know, I don't have a strong opinion of his, you know, his actual football skill.
18:47
Um, but, uh, because he was playing in a nonsense offense with terrible players around him, but- [laughs]... um, outside of Hunter.
18:53
But the, um, the, you know, b- I- right now in a vacuum, I would put Sanders on the Browns, and I think that the likelihood is Eagles, Browns flip-flop 32, 33 so that they can have potential for a fifth-year option if it works out for them.
19:08
So- Okay, I just wanna-... that's, that's my general read. And I think the Giants are probably just thinking the same thing.
19:11
Like, maybe, like, what do we need to do to get above the Browns to take him at the end of round one? It has, I think it has virtually nothing to do with, uh, the Giants potentially taking him at 33.
19:21
I just, I just wanna stop it because I, y- y- you come with, with a great sense of confidence, and most listeners, if I'm going to represent them for a second, uh, just need to, to have that re- reinforced one more time.
19:33
So what you're saying is at the top of the draft, you are certain, you, you feel confident that it's Ward, Hunter, and then Carter 1, 2, 3, Carter going to the Giants.
19:43
What you are referring to should, with Shedeur Sanders, v- quite confidently it appears to me, is that he may last all the way to the cusp of the second round. That's what you're saying? Absolutely. Okay.
19:55
You- Uh, you want... H- here's, here, here, here are the soft [laughs] evidentiary points, uh, on that, right? The Saints didn't go to his workout.
20:02
Uh, the, um, uh, the Sanders camp, uh, came out and said, "W- we'll go anywhere."
20:09
W- as opposed to, like, "We like, we, we're, we're picking a spot for him," they, they changed their tune to, "Oh, w- w- w- whatever is the best, best fit for him is fine," right?
20:17
And then he doesn't get invited [laughs] to the draft, or he, uh, declines the invitation to the draft, knowing that, you know, kind of all of those things I think are, are signs pointing to him, uh, sliding at least until, uh, the mid-20s.
20:30
Um, but I think more realistically, he's, uh, he's the early 30s.
20:34
Um, and you know, the big question is, you know, does, does a team like the Browns, do they give up assets to go get him in round one so that they have the fifth-year option, or do they just wait and take him 33?
20:44
My guess is that there's a potential for a flip-flop of 32, 33 with the Eagles, because the Eagles, to me at least, seem like a team that ha- has...
20:53
They, y- you know, they would want that 33rd pick so that you can really kind of chew on anyone el- you know. That, that's, uh, that's a pretty high leverage pick for day two of the draft, right? Oh.
21:03
When you get a full, uh, you know, 15 hours to negotiate with every team- Mm-hmm...
21:07
who might want the first pick in round two to go get the guy that slid that they, you know, had, you know, had eyes for, um, is pretty powerful.
21:14
So I could see the Eagles just, and the Browns making that, uh, making that move, uh, f- for best of both parties. So last week, or was it the week before? I can't remember now.
21:24
You were very confident that the Browns were gonna end up with Kirk Cousins. You no longer feel that way? True. They've, they've signed Joe Flacco again? I don't understand it.
21:34
[laughs] I, I didn't understand the Cousins thing either. It was just that everybody who kinda had an inside track was, um, you know, was pretty high confidence on that.
21:43
And, you know, he was in Cleveland f- at a time of year that you would only be there if you were trying to negotiate [laughs] your spot as their starting quarterback next year, so. Okay. Uh, yeah.
21:52
It seems like, it seems like whatever, uh, kind of soft deal was in place there either fell apart or, um, just ultimately isn't gonna materialize. And so for that reason, they signed Flacco, I suppose.
22:03
But, uh, the Browns still don't have a starting quarterback for next year, and you know, I mean, if, if they go with Pickett or Flacco, that's- Kenny Pickett begs to differ with you.
22:12
[laughs] You just pulled up the quote. He begs to differ with you. [laughs] He's there to start. He's not, he's not going there to hang out- No... Drew. Quote, unquote. Well. There's that.
22:23
Shots fired at the city of Cleveland. Yeah. [laughs] Uh, real quick before we get to the break, because I wanna do NBA series and your projected prices versus the actual moving forward here.
22:31
Do you have anything in either of the play-in games tonight or tomorrow? Uh, yes. I think all four totals are too low. Uh, round robining the overs.
22:41
Uh, I laid the chalk tonight with the Magic and the Warriors, and I took the points, or took the dogs tomorrow with Dallas and Miami. Um, all of this is relatively, um, recreational money.
22:55
I don't have any major skin in any of these play-in games, because they're a little bit chaotic. And honestly, there's a premium on backing the Warriors at seven.
23:02
Like, you have to really, really work hard to make that a fair price. Um, but, uh, I just, I'm, I'm pretty convinced that they have, um, the tools to put, uh, Jaren Jackson Jr. in foul trouble in the second quarter.
23:16
And then at that point, uh, the, uh, the Grizzlies defense rates as, like, a 30th percentile defense, which means the Warriors can kinda pick their number. So laid seven with the, uh, with the good guys.
23:26
So both favorites tonight, both dogs tomorrow, and round robining all the overs tonight. Or all, all four games, I should say. All four games. All four games, pardon me.
23:36
Yeah, the adjustment to the totals is just outrageous. Yeah. They, those adjusted downward. Okay. Uh, NBA series prices projected and actual.
23:45
Looking for value with Drew next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Unlock your winning edge with an unbeatable offer.
24:00
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24:27
Get full access through August 1st for just $59 at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. American Airlines going, uh, free Wi-Fi in 2026 for its loyalty, uh, members. How about that?
24:42
Oh, boy, they will not stop emailing me. They, they're one of those. It- it's an interesting, uh, business tactic to be like, "Here's how we will get people to..." It, it might, it might actually be a pretty sound one.
24:53
Free Wi-Fi for everybody who's in our program. Yeah. Come, come- That is a good one... come with us, all things being equal.
24:58
Um, Drew Dincic kind enough to join us for an, a second segment here on A Numbers Game to talk NBA with us. Uh, Drew joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
25:06
Again, you can follow him @whale_capper, The Deep Dive Podcast, Bet The Edge Podcast, and Deep Dive... Uh, excuse me, Bet The Edge Dailies. Pardon me. Or is it Deep Dive Dailies? Wait a minute. I, I, I... I don't know.
25:17
It's Bet The Edge Dailies. Well, we're doing dailies, doing daily stuff with Da- with Andy- Okay...
25:21
on the Deep Dive feed, and, uh, doing daily, uh, videos with Jay that go on the, uh, NBC, uh, um, just the overall player news feed. Man. Um, and then- Thanks for making time for us... other places. For God's sakes.
25:33
So there's So Does and everywhere, yeah. Um, before we get to your projected series prices of the established series- Mm-hmm... NBA awards real quick. Um- Yeah... what is your read on Defensive Player of the Year?
25:48
Uh, ask me again in about four weeks. [laughs] There, this is so exceptionally close, I have no way to call it right now.
25:59
Uh, if you said, "Well, you must make a call," I'm gonna call it Mobley by, like, f- three or four points.
26:07
Um, I think the, uh, the Draymond support that I was expecting, uh, from TNT, 'cause TNT has 10 votes, which is insane. Wow. Um, but the Draymond support from TNT is gonna come through.
26:20
Um, however, there is an anti-Draymond contingent that just is flat out leaving him off ballot. [laughs] And so, um, there are... He's...
26:29
It turns out, I don't know if you guys know this, turns out Draymond Green, somewhat of a polarizing figure. What? No. [laughs] Yes. Crazy. Um, some people have him one, some people have him apparently not top five.
26:42
Anyway, um, the, um, uh, the Mobley support is weak, but it's there.
26:48
Uh, right now after counting 30 votes so far, I think it's exactly 50/50 in terms of first place votes between those two, but more down ballot for support for Mobley, so I think he's gonna take it.
26:59
There's a lot of support for Dort. There's a lot of support for Dyson. Um, and I think it's gonna, it really is gonna take... We're gonna ha- We're gonna have to count every hanging chad.
27:07
That's a, uh, a reference only Gil would get, but- [laughs]... um, we're, we're counting the hanging chads, and, uh, we'll, uh, we'll get back to you in a couple weeks. That's a, that's a Bush v.
27:15
Gore Florida thing, correct? Bush v. Gore- Florida... hanging chads. That's right. [laughs] Uh, by the way, for those who don't know, NFL 50 voters for the awards, NBA 100 votes for each award.
27:27
So, and Drew is tracking these actual, you know, the actual voters, what is- Yeah, super, super soft commentary, too. Yeah. There's, like, a b- like, a really...
27:35
Usually the NBA awards are more pr- a little bit more predictable of what the voting bloc is gonna do broadly, and a little bit more kind of long, like, reflection of the season, you know, type of a vote.
27:48
Really k- "We really wanna reward these teams. We'll find a player to give some, some reward, you know, some credit to."
27:53
Like, that's sort of the tone as opposed to the N- NFL, which tends to have, like, "Oh yeah, I watched this game on Christmas, and that guy did great, so he's gonna get my vote," right?
28:02
Like, there's a recency bias that's absolutely absurd in the NFL, and there's a s- surprise, I was wrong about team player whatever that kind of really influences the NFL voting bloc.
28:11
And usually that does not in, you know, kind of trickle into NBA, but that's not the case this year.
28:16
Um, we have a, just a massive amount of recency from what I'm seeing, uh, from, you know, kind of the early stuff that's out there. So it's, it's gonna be a weird year in the NFL. What about most improved?
28:25
You're, you're saying that, you were saying off air there, there might be a little anti-Cade Cunningham feel? There's a lot of anti-Cade Cunningham.
28:32
Right now your second choice isn't even Cade, it's, it's, it's Zubac came out of the clouds- Ugh... because he had an amazing last week of the season. That's what I'm talking about, the recency bias stuff.
28:40
Like, like, when this market was last open, I think you had to a- request Zubac to be listed.
28:47
Um, and now, like, he's, uh, you know, second choice behind, uh, Da- Dyson Daniels for a lot of, uh, uh, lot of voting ballots that I've seen.
28:55
And what's weird about that is that, like, neither of these guys fit the typical, prototypical mold, which is first time All-Star.
29:01
So, you know, all, all, all of the rules are being broken from what I'm seeing so far in the, uh, uh, in the MI- in the, uh, in the award voting.
29:08
Like, even MVP, there's a lot of people that are just like, "Eh, I'm just gonna go Jokic." And it's like, o- over the guy who has comparable advanced stats on a team that won 18 more games? Excuse me? Right?
29:21
Like, like, or, uh, the, like, uh, that defies all logic. I, uh, I'm really shocked. Okay. To the series prices, so the series that have already been established, the three sixes and four fives.
29:32
Um, Knicks four dollar favorite over the Pistons. Pacers right around $2. Lakers right around $2 over the D- T-Wolves. Pacers obviously against the Bucs.
29:42
And then the Clippers Nuggets has moved to a virtual coin flip after the Nuggets opened as a sizable favorite against the Clippers. Which is the one of the four where your numbers shows the most difference to the actual?
29:58
Uh, it's Clippers Nuggets. Um, that was the worst opener I've seen in a series price in a long time. Yeah. Um, Nuggets could still win.
30:06
Like, I don't wanna sound overconfident in this, and no one should be going and running out and making a bet based on hearing me talk about this by any stretch of the imagination.
30:14
Um, but, uh, the idea that this is a fair price with the Nuggets favored even currently is, is very, very hard for me to square numerically. Um- By the way, let me just interject... the pro- Yeah, sure.
30:24
'Cause we, 'cause we're showing minus 135 at DraftKings. I'm staring at a minus 110, minus 110 offshore right now. Yeah, yeah. It has moved a lot. E- even that, even that's no, even that's not, not correct in my opinion.
30:34
I, I have- Oh... the Clippers as minus 158 in this series price. Um- Wow It's not even really hard to kind of talk out.
30:44
Like, uh, yeah, we could go a lot of different directions, but here's the problem with the, the Nuggets. They have to, they have to play a sixth and a seventh and maybe even an eighth player in this series.
30:54
All of those options are absolutely poison for them. Um, you can't get away with 48 minutes from your five guys. It's just not possible.
31:01
Um, and even if you did to get away with 48 minutes from your five guys, you still have a defense that is barely better than average.
31:07
Um, the playoff rotation defense that you're getting from this, uh, Clippers team is just out- absolutely outstanding.
31:14
Um, the fact that you could have, uh, Kawhi, Zubac, uh, and Kris Dunn on the floor at the same time is gonna make life absolute hell for, uh, Aaron Gordon in particular.
31:23
Uh, I think they have the right personnel also to turn Jokic into more of a three-point shooter and less of his kind of master facilitator role, which brings out the worst of the Nuggets offensively.
31:33
Uh, and I think even more than just betting series price here for the Clippers, I like some of the exotics.
31:38
I did take a huge bet on the series a- on its own, just because they have a better coach, they have more pieces, they have more combinations.
31:47
Even if they do lose the two first games in Denver, the idea of them being able to adjust, uh, and come up with the right combinations to take advantage of the weaknesses is real.
31:56
Um, opposite is true for this Nuggets team. Um, if they lose one or both of their first two home games, this is like f- you know, this is sweep potential because they just don't have anything that they can do.
32:08
Like, there's no one sitting in the, in the film room that's like, "What if we give Julian Strawther more of a, a more of a role or response?" [laughs] No. No.
32:15
Like, they, like, there's no answers, uh, to, uh, what you have in terms of personnel on this team that, uh, reasonably puts you in a, uh, competitive series if you drop either of your first two games.
32:26
So I think there's a real world where the Clippers just run this one.
32:29
And, um, honestly, as I'm looking over my shoulder with a big old Oklahoma City to win the West ticket, um, my, my Clippers-Thunder series price is spooky. Like, it's, that's gonna be a series.
32:42
Um, so, uh, feeling a little, um, a little bullish on the Clippers in general, and, uh, uh, that, that one I c- I'm still kind of surprised that they gave us plus money prices to get down on Clippers series. Yeah.
32:55
Uh, Thunder-Clippers, a potential second round series, uh, in the Western Conference. So, um, besides the Clippers series price- Mm-hmm...
33:04
which I assumed you bet then, uh, strongly, were there any other of the 3645 series bets that you made in any of the game ones in any of those match-ups for Saturday? Uh, the, I'm, I'm a Bucks supporter as well.
33:21
I'm pretty heavy into the Bucks in this series. Um, my fare for this one, if Damian Lillard plays zero minutes the entire series, my fare is Indiana minus 119.
33:31
Uh, so I like the Bucks series price regardless, and I think it has one directional upside where, surprise, Damian Lillard's playing game one and he's fine.
33:41
Um, and so I think Bucks game one, Bucks series is a, is a good play. Um, and, uh, n- not exactly sure why there's so much support for the Pacers, if we're being honest. Interesting.
33:54
And, and any of the game ones then on Saturday? Have you played any of those games? Um, I have, well, uh, Lakers, I mean, s- yeah, the Lakers-Minnesota game is a, uh, or series is a tough one.
34:06
I don't think that the series is fair, but I, uh, did not play the Timberwolves in that one.
34:11
Um, I'm waiting for some exotics t- to pop, and I'm probably gonna play Timberwolves minus one and a half games because realistically, if they win that one, they're winning it in six.
34:18
I don't see them coming back and winning it in seven. Um, and, uh, yeah, for the game ones, Clippers to win outright, I make them small favorites in Denver. Uh, and, um, uh, Bucks to win outright, I make that one a pick.
34:32
Drew, beautiful. Well done. Appreciate it, man. Thanks for making the time. Best of luck, you guys. Enjoy the playoffs. You too. Man's got a busy schedule. Thrilled that he makes time for us.
34:42
There was an earthquake yesterday too. Oh, we should've asked about that. And by we, I mean me.
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