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Apr 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | April 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | April 15, 2026
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46:16
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Transcript
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[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
1:04
It is a numbers game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlan. Heyo, good morning.
1:15
In the hizzy on this, uh, lovely morning after the greatest day in NBA play-in history. It was a fun one, man. What a- It was a fun one... what a doubleheader of basketball. We'll get into it momentarily.
1:28
I, I asked yesterday, 24 hours ago, I'm like, "What's your favorite," you know, I was sort of deriding- Yeah... derisively, "What's your, what's your favorite moment in play-in history?" Meaning there was none.
1:36
Here's the thing- Now there is now... is it all doesn't count too. So like nothing counts.
1:40
This is all just if it, if it's a great moment for you, it's just in your imagination five years from now, 'cause it's not statistically in the record books anywhere. That's correct. That's correct.
1:48
Uh, but there are betting implications, which I wanna get into. Uh, on the show today, Will Hill will join us, all of his bets coming up this hour. Stormy Bonatoni. There we go. Getting Stormy on the show. Nice job.
2:00
Uh, she'll talk NHL playoffs with us. Two more days of the regular season, but everything is set in the East. Nothing much but one series set in the West with just two nights left, including the Pacific Division.
2:13
We'll talk to Stormy about all things NHL playoffs. Todd Wishnev a little later on. Toddy, talking MLB with us. Paul Spohrer on Major League Baseball. Nick Whelan a little later on on the NBA playoffs.
2:24
Uh, and Kelly and I, we, we always do this. We were like, we don't know if people care that we do this, but we have a ball doing this. Mm-hmm. This is going to be our top 10 NBA power rankings heading into the playoffs.
2:36
Obviously, you know, a night of play-ins still to come tonight, and then play-ins being resolved on Friday night, but we're just gonna ra- we're just gonna power rank our top 10 teams. Yes. And
2:48
we'll repeat this when we do it later, but let me just say this. I predict that everybody on Earth has the same five teams in whatever order in the top five. Ooh, interesting.
2:58
And then I believe no one has the next five teams the same because it depends how you do this. The way that I did it is- Who's the fifth team? I feel like I could see four of them. Oh, that's true. I don't- That's true.
3:10
Yeah. I, I, I shouldn't say that about the fifth team. I think you could make a lot of arguments for the fifth team. Yeah, maybe you can. Maybe you can. I will say this.
3:15
The next five though, it really all depends on what [laughs] you're, what you're prioritizing. For me it's can the pl- can the playoffs work out in a certain way?
3:24
The, the, I, you know, obviously me, me and you should have te- uh, texted- We should have-... about this... we should have texted. But I did it that way too. And, and not necessarily path either.
3:32
It's more like if all things gelled for those teams. Well, we'll get into it. Yeah. When we do it. Ki- kind of confidence rankings, right? Of, of making it to the finals. That's right. And we might have, we might have
3:43
some big golf news coming down the pipe during the show today. I don't know. I don't really know either. I, I, I- Yeah...
3:48
I was, uh, I'll tell you, two hours ago it felt way more likely that, uh, we were gonna be hearing something official about Liv going away during the show today, but it is a lot of back and forth on Twitter right now with reports.
3:58
Liv may be kaput. Yes. We shall see. We'll keep a... We'll monitor that situation.
4:04
Uh, as far as the games last night, let me, let me just start with the second one first, because that's the easier one to get through just in terms of time spent on it. Deni Avdija, what a night of basketball for Avdija.
4:16
That's awesome.
4:17
Um, you may recall a couple, uh, Super Bowls ago when I went on vacation too, I was out for two weeks, and the very first thing I said on air when I came back was, "What was the greatest thing that happened during my two weeks off?"
4:25
And you're like, "I don't know. What?" And I said, "Deni Avdija tickled the strings to 43 balloons in a game for the Wizards at the time." [laughs] And that was forever ago at this point- That was forever ago...
4:35
man, in the career of Deni Avdija. And my comment at the time was, "That's like 80 s- that's like an 86.9 for a Gentile," right? [laughs] That was amazing.
4:42
And I couldn't believe that the Wizards let this dude go in a trade. Yeah. I'm just, I'm just absolutely outraged by it. And the only conclusion I can come to, young Kelly Bidlan, I'll say it out loud.
4:55
They judged a book by its cover. Mm. In more ways than one. Deni Avdija last night, 41, baby. 41 points for the Portland Trail Blazers. You said it best, uh, via text this morning.
5:07
More than 37 people finally got to see him play basketball. Yep.
5:11
41 points, seven boards, 12 assists, including the, uh, the layup that put up, that, uh, gave the Blazers the lead at 109-108, and then when the Suns retook it at 110-109,
5:22
three the hard way from Avdija to the rack with 16 seconds left. That held after Jaylen Green missed a three. Blazers are in the playoffs as the seven seed. They win the 7-8 game.
5:33
They were the eight in terms of the standings, but they become the official seven seed now in the Western Conference [laughs] playoffs, and for their efforts, they get to play a best of seven series against the Spurs.
5:44
But, but, but if you just want the quick, the quick highlight recap of Deni Avdija if you haven't been watching the past couple years- That last play, especially this year, the man leads the NBA in drives to the basket- Mm-hmm...
5:58
has done it all regular season. Downhill player. Carved up... H- how many Suns defenders did he go through- Oh... in that play? There was, like, four of them. Getting knocked around the whole time. Yes.
6:08
Just getting banged up. Now, is that gonna work against Spurs where Wembanyama waits under the, under the r- rim? It's gonna be a little tougher. Probably not. Probably not. I, I'll tell you what, though. This was the...
6:17
We, we talked about it yesterday, Gil. Like, this was... I was hoping that the Blazers would win this game, 'cause I think that they will at least put more pressure on the Spurs than I, than the Suns.
6:27
Me and Drew completely disagreed on that. That... I actually think that with, with Donovan Clingan in the middle, it makes things a little bit tougher for Spurs to get to the, to get to the rim easily. Yes, eight...
6:39
No, I don't think the Blazers are gonna win this series by any means, but they could keep, they could force a couple close games, I think, against the Spurs. I was, I was going nuts.
6:46
I was going nuts watching the end of this game. Um, now the Suns are not eliminated. Suns await the winner of the 9-10 game tonight between the Dubs show and the Clip show.
6:56
You know what the only one I just realized real quick? We get to see. It's the Scoot-Wemby matchup that everybody's been waiting years for now. [laughs] Finally. Number one verse number two. Finally, it's come. Finally.
7:07
The day we went to- Scoot verse Wemby [laughs]... Dollar Loan Center arena. It's all coming back around. It's all coming around.
7:12
Um, Blazers will get that best of seven series against the Spurs, and the, uh, the Suns await the winner of the Clippers and Du- and, uh, Warriors tonight.
7:21
That game will determine the, the ultimate game between the Suns and the winner of that game will be Friday night. That will determine the eight seed, who will have a best of seven against the Thunder.
7:30
Uh, the game before that, though, was the headliner, as it turned out. Heat-Hornets. This was the 9-10 game in the East.
7:38
Remember, loser eliminated, winner just, uh, advances or at least survives one more basketball game till they play the loser of the 7-8 tonight between the Sixers and Magic.
7:51
Second quarter, first minute, nip and tuck game, Bam Adebayo off balance, you know, corralling a loose ball and trying to pass it, and LaMelo Ball sort of instinctively grabs his...
8:04
Now, I'm giving him grace here by saying instinctively. Oh, y- no, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I do think there, it was instinctively. Some people are gonna say it was a dirty play. It's somewhere in that world.
8:12
I, I, I heard a couple, a couple players say, "Hey, this is kinda something you do instinctively to make sure your hand doesn't get stepped on or any- Yeah... or someone falls on it." Yeah.
8:22
I think there is some instinct to it. Uh, there is some footage of him doing it to Bam in 2024 as well. Oh, I, I was gonna wait, I was gonna wait for that. [laughs] I was gonna wait for that.
8:28
Uh, Bam falls awkwardly with no way to sort of impact his fall. Hurts his back- Yeah... never to return in the game. Again, the author of the 83-point performance here in the last month of the NBA season,
8:42
gone from the Heat lineup from that point forward, first minute of the second quarter. So the Heat are hamstrung. Does that in any way deter the Miami Heat? Of course not, 'cause they're the Miami Heat, for God's sakes.
8:55
We just f- we, let's just fast-forward. 102-102, just over four minutes to go. What a flurry, what a flourish to the finish of this game. Wiggins three, 105-102. Wiggins three, 108-102.
9:09
Brandon Miller three, comeback, 108-105 Heat. Hero three, 111-105. The Heat actually have the ball up six with less than two minutes to go. They cannot capitalize. Miles Bridges three, 111-108 Heat.
9:21
Heat with the ball up three. Hakeem fouled. With less than 30 seconds to go, he makes one of two. It's 112-108. Brandon Miller three with 19 seconds left. 112-111. Hero fouled. He makes both.
9:34
It's 114-111 Heat with 13 seconds left. And then the Hornets, and you gotta figure, are the Heat gonna foul? What are they gonna do here? The Hornets inbounds. They don't give the Heat a chance to foul.
9:45
It's a inbounds, inbounds catch and shoot, Coby White turnaround splash three. [exhales] One of the most amazing threes you'll ever see given the stakes. Yep. Kept his feet inbounds, too.
9:58
They didn't really emphasize that enough, I don't think. Welcome back to c- North Carolina Coby White, right? Coby White just put them within the border. But 114-114, 11 seconds left. Hero misses a three.
10:08
We're going to overtime. And then in the overtime, you know, it does the w- what happens? O- uh, underdogs go to die in overtime. It felt that way. Yeah. Right? 120- I was hoping... 123-118 Hornets.
10:20
With the ball with under a minute to go in overtime, Bridges airballs, the shot clock winds down, so the, uh, the Heat get the ball. Davion Mitchell played great. Drives to the hole.
10:29
It's 123-120 Hornets with 48 seconds to go. Timeout, and then Amazon technical difficulties. Dude. Dude. Lasted one minute and 50 seconds. Did they miss the LaMelo Ball bucket- Okay, so, so-... on the broadcast?...
10:47
from people I've talked to, it d- I think it was a little dependent on your Amazon and maybe your location, 'cause me and JVT seemed to miss the same amount of time. I missed one minute and 50 seconds.
10:59
I missed a LaMelo Ball drive to the bucket. They didn't- And that, that's what Danny and I were discussing the mor- this morning. It felt like we missed two possessions, one bucket.
11:06
No, I missed one possession, one bucket- Okay... which was, which was Ball... 'Cause it was during a timeout, so there, so it was only one possession in the end. 125-120.
11:15
Amazon thankfully comes back with 26 seconds left. It was one minute and 50 second of real time, 22 seconds of game time that were missed. Wait, Zach missed mo- more than this, though. Oh, really?
11:24
Like, he was telling me he missed more than this. Oh, my God. Anyway, Hero, insane three from the corner, as impressive as White's was. 125-123 all of a sudden with 24 seconds left. Hornets bringing up court.
11:38
Larson steals it from LaMelo, gets it to Hero. Hero races to the corner, three-point attempt fouled by Ball. Ugh. 92% free throw shooter Hero hits them all. 126-125 Heat with eight, with under nine seconds left.
11:52
Ball to the rack. LaMelo, that is, got it. 127-126 Hornets. Under five seconds left, Mitchell sprints into the front court to the bucket, blocked by Bridges. Ball game. What a classic. Dude. What a game. Heat eliminated.
12:06
Hornets await the winner of Sixers-Magic loser to play for the eight seed. Mitchell 28, Wiggins 27, Herro 23 in defeat.
12:13
Ball 35 and 10, Bridges 28, nine, Miller 23, White 19 off the bench, five from eight from behind the arc. And I wanna talk about this after the break.
12:22
Khan Knieppel, six points on two of 12 shooting, zero for six from behind the arc. Benched. We mu- Benched, Khan. We must discuss Khan Knieppel. We got eight more things to talk about. We must discuss Deni Avdija.
12:37
Do you know where I'm going with this? Yeah. Oh, I know where you're going. Oh, you know where I'm going. You know where I'm going. Next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:45
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12:52
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13:00
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13:08
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:23
Don't forget, you can access VSiN, free access that is, for a limited time with Opta AI projections, MLB props are free, NBA props are free, betting splits, free DraftKings and Circa, all of that at vsin.com.
13:38
Same pro-level tools serious bettors rely on. Tonight they go away, Kelly. That's it. Tonight, last chance on this. Free access ends today, but with a VSiN Pro subscription, you have full access to all of those tools.
13:49
Find out more at vsin.com. That's V-S-I-N.com. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin on a Numbers Game. Uh, it's not often that we get, uh, this young lady on the show, but we're always thrilled to have her.
14:00
She is the co-host of Money Moves, which is an hour after we're on. So after we go off at 10:00 AM Pacific, 1:00 PM Eastern, then it's Prop Points for an hour with Nick, Waylon, and Jeff Erickson.
14:11
Then it is Stormy Bonatoni and JVT. We got the Stormy portion with us today. You can follow her on Twitter @StormyBonatoni. Good morning. How are you? Morning. Great. Thank you guys for having me. I appreciate it.
14:23
You just, uh, threw in a little, uh, tidbit here before we went on air when we were just chatting off air. You are a Charlotte Hornets fan? How is that? Not by choice [laughs] Oh... necessarily.
14:34
I lived in Charlotte for a handful of years. My husband is from Wilmington, North Carolina, so he is a diehard Carolina Panthers, Charlotte Hornets fan, all those things.
14:46
So it's been thrust upon me through our now 11-year relationship. And so you brought up, "Did you see the technical difficulties yesterday?" And yeah, we were freaking out.
14:56
[laughs] Now is not the time, especially with the chaos that ultimately ended up ensuing in the final minutes of regulation and then obviously overtime.
15:04
I am now actively rooting for this to happen a few more times so that streaming live sports goes away entirely. That is my hope.
15:13
And I mean, it's consistent, I feel like every time everyone gets really excited about a big event, there's always a spinny wheel or a technical difficulty or a something or other.
15:23
Remember when everybody was on Netflix to watch the Tyson fight [laughs] and half of the country couldn't even watch it- That's right... because of how glitchy and weird it was.
15:32
I'll give them credit, it's gotten better, but if you're really gonna invest in these streaming services, especially for live sports, it has to be perfect.
15:41
You can't have this kind of stuff creep up, especially because those services ultimately end up taking what is usually more high leverage games. Absolutely, 100%.
15:51
Uh, you are in a different life besides doing VSiN, of course. You work for ESPN. You do multiple sports, one of which is hockey.
15:58
You obviously have a steeped history with the Vegas Golden Knights as well, doing hockey for them. I wanna ask you about the NHL. Two more nights of the NHL season with the playoffs- Yeah... right, uh, right after that.
16:08
Let's just start with you have a couple preseason futures that are still alive. What do, what do you have going?
16:15
Yes, um, and I still like them, although I'm not sure if I should, in both the Minnesota Wild at 40 to 1 and the Vegas Golden Knights at 10 to 1, and obviously those numbers are shorter now.
16:26
I think Vegas is still available at like nine to one, though. Their preseason number hasn't shifted significantly.
16:32
Um, but after the way that this team has kinda shifted mindset and mentality since bringing John Tortorella on, I, I like where they sit potentially.
16:41
It stinks that both of the teams that I have things invested in are coming through the Western Conference, and you still have to go through the Colorado Avalanche, which are gonna be an absolute bear.
16:49
The Wild's path is very difficult, being an underdog to the Stars right away in round one, and they're not gonna have home ice advantage against that team. But I think they could be live in that series.
16:59
I wish there were some better ways for me to bet it, because even the plus one and a half games on the series spread for Minnesota is minus 185.
17:08
Um, the, you look at the total games, five and a half, it's like minus 230 on the over for what I think is gonna be a long series.
17:15
So still need to do a little bit of tinkering about how I m- might want to approach that series when all is said and done, but I think the Wild at its core are awesome and have a lot of potential to be kind of one of those upset players as we go here throughout the postseason.
17:28
What they did in bringing in Quinn Hughes midway through the season, the high-end talent of their young star in Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, they have so many levels to their game that I really do feel they could be kind of a plucky, sneaky contender through this thing should Colorado get caught up, although I don't know if that's gonna happen.
17:50
A- and Vegas, meanwhile, on the other side, like I said with Torts, they, they just seem to have had something click for them and They have all the talent in the world.
18:00
It's just been the goaltending that's been their issue, and if Carter Hart can continue to play at the level that he has, and if Torts can get the most out of this veteran squad, I think they could be a little bit chippy as well.
18:12
Wild-Stars, the only Western Conference playoff series that you just alluded to and just talked about that is set.
18:18
All of the Eastern Conference playoff series are now set, Sabres-Bruins, Lightning-Canadiens, Hurricanes-Senators, and Penguins-Flyers. But we only have that one, Stars-Wild, so far with two nights left, uh, out west.
18:30
Um, you brought up the Avs, the Avalanche. Let me ask you a question. How many teams in your opinion can actually win the Cup, and are you considering adding another future play at this point?
18:43
I don't want to give you an exact number, but I do think there are a handful. Um, Colorado is the rightful favorite. They are a freaking wagon.
18:51
They have done it from start to finish throughout the course of the year, maybe had a couple wonky, streaky times throughout the course of the season.
18:58
But more often than not, they have been awesome, and they're getting healthy at the right time, too, right? We saw Cale Makar get back on the ice yesterday. He had three helpers in that win.
19:07
Uh, Nazem Kadri as well, we thought that he wasn't gonna come back potentially until the postseason started. He's back as well.
19:14
They have Nathan MacK- they, everything that you could ask for, Colorado has, offense, defense, goaltending. Um, so I get why they are in the position that they're in, but I think they're...
19:26
I mean, I said I don't want to put a number on it. Probably five teams that at least come, maybe six, that come top of mind that could really go on to win it all for me.
19:34
A team that I'm really confused about and want to know if I should reinvest in is the Carolina Hurricanes, who every year, Gil- [laughs]... I think they can win it, and every year they disappoint.
19:47
I have, uh, maybe, you know, Michael Lombardi would always call it a St. Jude's play. Maybe that's just what this is. I am better off donating to St.
19:54
Jude's or others than betting on the Carolina Hurricanes for what they have done to me over the years, just s- a sinking ship, because they either can't get out of the second round or get swept in the Eastern Conference Final if they make it, ultimately, there.
20:07
Last year, I think they still ended up losing that series four games to one, but it was the first time that they had won a game in the Eastern Conference Final in, like, 15 games since Rod Brind'Amour was a player.
20:17
And so they just haven't been able to get it done. That said, I feel like I'm ready to get hurt again. I like this roster so much. [laughs] They're built great.
20:25
They added, could Nikolai Ehlers be the missing piece of this roster? I don't know. Like, I am such a fan of the type of hockey that they play. They play hard. They roll four lines. They play good D.
20:39
Goaltending has been a little bit tricky for them this season, but I, I think that they can overcome that, and I don't know. I'm just, should I get hurt again, guys? You tell me.
20:48
You, uh, you sound like the NBA hardos with the Clippers. This is your Clippers, the Hurricanes. Yeah, yeah, except for the Hurricanes are second on the odds board. Yeah, yeah. I'm like, eh- Little different...
20:55
I don't think you should buy back in, Stormy. Little different in that respect. [laughs] Fair. I, I mentioned the- Fair, and I do work with JVT, who's a diehard Clippers fan, so I feel like I get that a lot.
21:03
[laughs] Money moves, JVT on the Clippers and Stormy on the Hurricanes. Uh, I mentioned the three, or excuse me, the four Eastern Conference playoff series that are set.
21:12
Was there one of those that you wanted to bet above all? Yes, um, I think that plus 140 is a pretty nice price that you can get on the Philadelphia Flyers as a dog to the Penguins.
21:23
Kind of fun, Pennsylvania East versus- Yeah... Pennsylvania West. Um, [laughs] but I think Vladar in net has been a real difference maker for the Flyers, 13.9 saves above expected.
21:34
Porter Martone has provided an obvious spark for them down the stretch as well, and just the way that they've been playing recently, won six of seven to close out the regular season.
21:44
Since, since March 11th, they have done everything right to put themselves in a position to make the postseason and be peaking at the right time, which I think is one of those qualities you really look for this time of year, whether it's the NBA or the NHL.
21:57
When you get to this time of the year, you want to be playing your best, 18, six, and one since March 11th.
22:03
And, uh, I, I know that the postseason is better with Crosby in it, but I think they get knocked out in the first round.
22:08
You know what they say about Pennsylvania, uh, Penguins in the west, or excuse me, Penguins in the west, Philly in the east, and Alabama in between. [laughs] That's the word about Pennsylvania.
22:17
[laughs] Also known as Pen- The more you know... also kn- known as Pennsyltucky, I believe is the other thing that it's called. Ah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Learning today. Yeah. Yeah. It's what you're here for.
22:26
Big-time series. Uh, there is two more nights of the NHL regular season, obviously. Tonight there are games with implications. Are you betting anything tonight?
22:35
Um, I'm contemplating adding Vegas puck line against Seattle today.
22:40
Just, I mean, they should've cover, won and covered the puck line against Seattle when they played, uh, last week, and they ended up losing in overtime in that game.
22:48
That is the lone loss that they've had under John Tortorella. So I think they get some redemption in that spot today, especially trying to still seal up the Pacific division. And then I think you'll like this.
22:59
I'm, I, I might go down the road of a little brain dead parlay NHL edition today- Let's do it. I love it... with [laughs] the Lightning and Red Wings money line over the Rangers and Panthers. That's plus 195.
23:10
If you add in the Senators against the Leafs as well, plus 355. Leafs need to stay in the top five to keep their pick in the lottery. Otherwise, it gets shipped to Boston for trade condition reasons.
23:20
A loss would move them to six. Panthers need to stay in the top 10. Otherwise, that pick goes to the Blackhawks, and the Rangers are currently third in the draft lottery.
23:30
A win tonight would move them to four, with the Flames moving ahead of them. So a couple gotta lose it games [laughs] on the card today in the NHL. Let's roll. I love it. I love it.
23:41
Uh, what can we expect on money moves today with you and JVT? Anything specific? Uh, lots of stuff. We will get into all of that with the NHL.
23:48
Obviously, with JVT being one of our NBA analysts, we'll talk play-in, we'll talk series prices, and a couple great guests, Noops Christensen. Oh, Noops. Um, we're gonna- Yeah. Yes, we're gonna talk NBA with him.
23:59
We'll get NFL draft talk. We're covering the whole gamut for our two hours today. All right. Love it. Thank you, Stormy. Appreciate the time. Stormy Bonatony, everybody. Co-host of Money Moves right here at the network.
24:11
Kelly and I coming back on a Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget about our VSiN Pro intro offer.
24:27
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24:39
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24:55
Beat of the book. I haven't even looked to see if we have tweets, but let's g- let's get to some tweets, shall we? Uh, let's see here. This is from Chance Copperpot was saying, uh, oh, he's, he's giving a date now.
25:05
"DK added injury protection on August 1st, 2025." Huh. Okay. Yeah, he brought up, I know- For, for, for whatever reason I remember it being earlier than that. No, I di- he just tweeted again.
25:16
I know what he's talking about. Oh, he did. Chance is, is absolutely right.
25:19
What we would see in the past, remember, 'cause we'd yell about this too, is Draft, DraftKings and like would- wouldn't be consistent with it, right?
25:25
It would be a star player in a big time game that would go out, and they'd be like, "Oh, insurance or protection," like, "We're gonna pay you back." Now they actually have it in their house rules.
25:34
[laughs] Uh, James Fessler, "Gil, if Liv collapses after their Masters performance, you have a once in a lifetime obligation to combine both your Hootie Johnson voice with the Urkel voice." Okay. Oh, the Urkel quote.
25:49
Hootie with Urkel. Yeah. God, that's hard to do. Yeah, I was gonna say. "Did, uh, did, uh..." [laughs] Y- you got it. You got it. Did I do that? [laughs] Uh, Joe, Joe- That was pretty good... Joe Zacag?
26:02
Joe Zacag, or I, I'm sorry, I hope I... Joe Zacag, "Gil, as someone from Western Pennsylvania, I can't totally disagree with your statement.
26:08
It seems your logic would then make the State College, Pennsylvar- Pennsylvania area Tuscaloosa." It's not me, it's James Carville.
26:15
Kenny Dillingham Sexual, "Sorry if this has been discussed already, but have you guys seen the odds moving on NBA Rookie of the Year?
26:22
Should/will Con be penalized for last night's performance for a regular season award considering ballots are still out?" Kenny Dillingham Sexual, if that is your real name,
26:31
I did talk about it early on the show during the second segment, I brought it up, of the fact that because of the 65 game appeals with all these awards, the delay has happened with the voter deadline.
26:44
And so these games last night, namely Deni Avdija for Most Improved Player
26:49
and Con Kanneple as it relates to Rookie of the Year, did that game, do those one singular performances by both of those players affect their candidacies for those awards in the minds of bet- in the minds of voters
27:03
with Most Improved and Rookie of the Year respectively? And right now we're seeing Deni Avdija in prediction markets soaring. He's down to a, by, by the last I looked it was, like, about 17 to 1.
27:15
We closed in legalized sports book at 75 to 1. And Con Kanneple is now the plus money f- you know, plus money price against Cooper Flagg. Cooper Flagg is, like, 60 percent-ish. Yeah. If not higher.
27:25
And that, that flip, flipped from last night. Con was, like, 56. Yeah, so there's that. Donnie Miller, "DraftKings now has Caleb Downs over nine and a half plus 140, under minus 185." Brain explode emojis.
27:41
Um, oh, and there's the Chance Copperpot clarification, "Some occasions when people were complaining they would do it." I see. But so now officially August 2025. Got it. Got it.
27:50
Thank you for that explanation, Kelly Billy. Archie Green, "What do you think about Gary Player calling for the, uh,
27:56
the golf balls to be rolled back to 60 yards, saying it's a tragedy that par fives don't exist anymore?"
28:02
Uh, this has been a, this has been something we've been talking about for years and them trying to put limitations on the golf balls, drivers, all this type of stuff 'cause people are hitting it too far and they're hitting it too far for how the courses are desi- uh, designed.
28:15
Martle Jay, "Seeing contracts for streaming agreements would be fascinating.
28:19
Typically, you have service level agreements baked into contracts when outsourcing technology, often with financial penalties or opt-outs if they can't deliver." Yeah, if they can't deliver, they can't deliver.
28:28
You can bounce out of that. Ladies and gentlemen, Paul Sporer, kind enough to join us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He's in Austin, Texas at his lair, his new lair there in Austin, Texas.
28:37
You can follow him on Twitter at Sporer. He is, of course, the host of the Sleeper and the Bus podcast. He works at FanGraphs. And of course, at, uh, O- O- always, hi, I always get it wrong. [laughs] It's OO.
28:48
OO, what is it? OOTP. OOTP. There we go. O- O- OTP. Out of the Park Baseball. Out of the Park Baseball. OOTP. You're down with OOTP. Very easy, Gil. That's right. You're down with OOTP. Uh, Paul? Mm-hmm.
28:59
Thanks for joining us. We appreciate it. Got the Brooklyn Dodgers gear on today. Let me, uh, let me ask- That's right... let me ask you this to start things out. Um, the most
29:11
smoke and mirrors team in baseball thus far this year is the? Ooh, um, probably the Twins. Twins. I know they're hitting well. I d- I, I just don't think that they've got the pitching, you know?
29:24
I kind of figured, you know, that they were better than they were last year. Obviously before they sold, it's like, "Oh, they're gonna come out of this. They're gonna come out of this," 'cause I liked their lineup.
29:31
Um, and th- that was definitely the case last year. But this year, the pitching is the problem for me. I like Joe Ryan, and I'm actually a big Taj Bradley guy, but it really falls off after that.
29:41
I give Mick Abel some love, but you can only really run three deep. I think Bailey Ober's basically cooked any time he's running sub 90 miles an hour.
29:48
Simeon-Wellons Richardson, honestly, even if you really wanna put a rosy picture on the rotation, I, I got nothing for you in the bullpen.
29:55
I think Rick Aguilera and Steve Reardon are gonna be pitching, uh, Jeff Reardon I think are gonna be pitching it later this week because it's bad. Uh, and that's really the problem with them.
30:03
And so I know that they have either the best or tied for the best record in the American League, yet they're 11 and 7. That's the second-best record in baseball, best in the American League.
30:13
I just don't see how they can hold up right now. Right now they happen to be beating up a bunch of interesting pitchers. By the way, they, they cooked Crochet this week. Mm-hmm. Skubal. Yeah.
30:20
And Framber in the Tigers series. They got to both lefties there. So they're hitting well. I just don't see how they've got the long haul in them, though, in Minnesota April wins market exclusively.
30:29
The Padres lead at 10 and 2. The Twins are at 10 and 4. Just talking about April, not March, April. Uh, but April alone. Mm-hmm. That's, that's where the Twins are. 10 and 4, just behind the Padres.
30:40
Here we are s- uh, as we throw it up on the screen. Dodgers right behind them for April most wins at nine and three. March, April, a little different, where our 35 to 1 Reds are in sixth place.
30:50
I thought you were gonna say Reds. I thought that was gonna be your answer. Because, uh, you, you think they're fraudulent? I, I do. I think their pitching is, is a bit of a problem.
30:59
I don't, but they, they just can't h- And, and they also, like, they get these offensive droughts, too. They won yesterday with- Yep... three hits, right? You know.
31:07
I, I- That, that's the frustrating part, though, too, is that lineup runs deep. Yes.
31:10
Uh, like, in, in the fantasy world, we are gushing about this freaking lineup every year it seems, to the point where, you know, we're, we're being like, "Oh, well, they have too many players," this and that.
31:19
Where's Christian Encarnación gonna play? I don't know. He's gonna be sold to the Orioles for eight bucks. Like- [laughs]... they, it just has not come to fruition. Yeah. Joey Marte, oh, fantasy god, in the minors.
31:29
You know, they got some guys working. Sal Stewart. Obviously, Ellie's always, always good. I think Matt McClain's been unlucky, by the way. I think he's gonna explode. He's still tearing the cover off the ball.
31:38
But I agree.
31:38
Like, when their offense falls short, that makes it even tougher because their starting pitching has just been dealt blow after blow after blow, and I don't know how they're gonna make it through the whole year either.
31:47
This was a team I loved coming into the year, but with the injuries they've already suffered and the struggling offense, I think that's a fair number two there.
31:54
But Minnesota was a team that I didn't really see anything for this year, so the fact that they're even off to a hot start has surprised me. Um, Sal Stewart of the Reds.
32:03
Should folks bet him NL Rookie of the Year after his blazing start to this season? Oh, yeah, I got no problem with that. I, I buy him- Okay... as an absolute stud. Like, I, I think he's very much in the mix.
32:14
Now, it's a deep rookie pool, so you know, you're gonna have a challenge, uh, AL or NL, wherever you're going this year.
32:20
Looks like there's gonna be a battle with multiple guys that can get there, but Sal Stewart is, is chief among them. This guy came up, ripped five homers last year in just 58 plate appearances, showed off his power.
32:30
But that was kind of an all or nothing power. He's got a real dynamic offensive profile that makes him a fantasy god, that makes him a real life potential god. Five homers, three steals already. Great slash line.
32:39
Sal Stewart is a monster, and he's a big piece for Cincinnati. Uh, he can paper over some of their troubles, but again, you can't pitch, and that's my concern with the Reds long term.
32:49
Yeah, and Sal Stewart is now the short shot for NL Rookie of the Year. I didn't even see this. Plus 220. Even shorter than McClain- Wow... and Connor Griffin and Weatherholt, all these guys.
32:57
So yeah, maybe not the best price anymore. Uh, you know how I feel about those- Yeah... those favorites early. It just- Yeah...
33:02
it, it's always so tough to jump on such a heavy favorite there, especially when you see what McClain did in LA. I mean, at that point, once he's not the short shot, maybe I look his way.
33:11
I love what JJ Weatherholt's doing. You know, the numbers aren't off the charts, but the, the, the professional at bats, a- as it were, he really just looks the part right now.
33:19
So yeah, it's a deep pool, and again, you go to the AL, it might even be deeper. Uh, the teams that were supposed to do very well that have been floundering-ish in the early going of the season. Mm-hmm.
33:31
Is there one of those teams that you are legitimately worried about despite the small sample size? Well, uh, you know, I, I called Houston the, uh, the horror movie villain.
33:42
You just can't kill them, 'cause I really thought that they had a good off-season and put some things together. That's been wasted away by injury. A- and again, some teams just get the injury bug.
33:49
All teams get injuries, but some teams get it worse than others, right? Like, no team, to, to, to the pros' credit, no team uses that as an excuse. They're always, "Next man up. We gotta do what we gotta do.
33:59
Every other team's dealing with it, too." Because you can't. Like, you can't sit around moping about it.
34:03
But you can sit back and assess and realize that teams like Atlanta and Houston have certainly eaten the bigger share of the injury bug right now, and very much to the detriment of Houston, because they simply didn't have the depth to sustain this.
34:16
They already basically kinda had to stay as healthy as you can and maybe get a, uh, 90th, 85th percentile, uh, injury outcome already, and the fact is they're nowhere near that, and it's only getting worse.
34:26
You know, with Imai struggling to adjust to the States, which is totally understandable, by the way, moving halfway across the world. Like, I, I feel like we just assume everyone's gonna be great when they get over here.
34:35
That's a big adjustment. Hunter Brown getting hurt. Again, they don't have the depth to deal with this.
34:39
The, uh, unfortunate part for Houston is their offense has absolutely been blazing hot, but you can't out-hit bad pitching. Mets fans thrilled that you did not answer Mets.
34:50
[laughs] Who are also 7 and 11 along with the Astros. Real quick, yes or no answer. Yeah.
34:54
Is this the year where another reliever, first since Eric Gagne, and I'm talking about Mason Miller, can possibly w- w- can possibly win Cy Young? Yes, but only because voters are stupid.
35:06
Relievers shouldn't win Cy Young. [laughs] He's awesome. He's amazing. No shot, though. That's a great answer. Thank you. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Coming back. Thank you, Paul. Going to Numbers Game.
35:13
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:26
Don't forget to check out the sharp plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Scan the QR code for more.
35:36
Sharpplays.com. We got tweets beating the book. Always appreciate it. Mm-hmm. This is from, uh- I got another fun NBA stat for you after the tweets, too Oh. Oh, exciting. That's exciting. Two drinks in. What's this?
35:48
Todd says Gil won't get to 40, to a 40 in any of the games. Yes, he will. Get to 40 is minus 165, no plus 150. Somehow, some way, please get a streaming crew out there to document this match. You should steam the yes.
35:59
There's no chance I'm not getting a 40. He's... Just stop it with that. He, he acting like he's... He's acting like he's a regular Roscoe Tanner. You know what I'm saying, Kelly Bidlack? For sure, yes. Totally.
36:09
Mike- Roscoe Tanner... Mike Rouse. Now people just egging me on to do. He says, "How about a Hootie Johnson, Foghorn Leghorn, Urkel into one quote?"
36:16
Yeah, well, we'll save that for the, for my Vegas act, my lounge act that's coming later this month. Reggie Vegas. "Talk about negative variance, Gil. I own a dog that runs at Wheeling racetrack.
36:27
It is drawn into post five, six, seven, or eight 17 times in a row. Going for 18 on Friday. Of course, everyone knows you want the inside post at Wheeling.
36:35
I need Wishnev to go down there and shake things up so my guy can get a good post. I think if he draws a five, six, seven, or eight this time, that's like a one in 500,000 chance." That's crazy.
36:45
There's a lot to break down in that tweet. Absolutely. Greyhound racing? This is what we're talking about? Eh, he used the word dogs. And he, and- I don't know what that means...
36:53
he owns the Greyhound, or does he just like to bet on- He owns... this one? He owns. Okay. He owns. Nevada Azar, "Maybe I missed you saying it, but any idea when this ridiculous appeal by Doncic will be ruled on?"
37:03
Supposed to be this week. Supposed to be before the playoff games start on Saturday. But I don't know. And it's like- Hey, he's on his way back to the United States, okay? [laughs] It's like- He's got a lot going on...
37:13
I think he has landed in North America. I'm sure it's the first thing he'll do. Listen, [laughs] it's the first thing he'll do. Nick Whelan joins us now.
37:21
He's the co-host of Prop Points, which follows us here on the network, uh, top of the hour, which he does with Jeff Erickson.
37:26
Nick joins us courtesy of Progressive Ga- uh, Guestline, where you can follow him, by the way, on Twitter @Whelan, just substitute the number one for the letter L. Nick, an, an epic night in play-in history last night.
37:38
How about that? Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah. How about it, guys? I mean, this is, this is the reason we do the play-in tournament, right? It, it's not to maintain more competitiveness throughout the regular season.
37:48
It's to set up these, these incredible games, [laughs] uh, which we got last night. I mean, Hornets seed honestly was an all-timer.
37:54
And I, I tweeted this last night, like it, it felt like they should've just let the Hornets fans storm the court. You know, they, they need this, right?
37:59
[laughs] It's been like 10 years since there's been any meaningful basketball- They need this [laughs]... in Charlotte. And it, it just, it really, really felt like they were close. We, you don't see that in NBA games.
38:07
But wild, wild game late. You know, I thought both teams had multiple opportunities to put this game away.
38:12
For Miami, you know, Haase missing a big free throw with under a minute left, you know, a four-point lead could've become a five-point lead. And obviously, you know, the Hornets hit two crazy threes back to back.
38:21
And then Charlotte's in control late in overtime. LaMelo Ball has... Honestly, that was like watching, like a mid-major college turnover, right? Mm-hmm. Where you just, he can't handle the press.
38:29
He, he just, you know, throws the ball away, and all of a sudden Miami is in control. I, I have no idea why Tyler Herro basically passed on a layup to then [laughs] dribble out to the corner, but of course got fouled.
38:39
Uh, but it, really an incredible game. I, I was on the Hornets to, to win in cover. Obviously, that did not happen.
38:44
Uh, but kind of a fitting end it feels like to what is just such a weird, convoluted season for the Heat. You know, it never really felt like they coalesced.
38:52
You know, when, when Tyler Herro comes back, then all of a sudden Norman Powell is hurt. Like, it, it just never really felt like this team fully came together.
38:58
And I, I, I honestly think this is kind of the result that most NBA fans want. Like, we, we wanna see more of the Charlotte Hornets. Uh, two things.
39:05
One, I guess if you're a 92% free throw shooter, you're like, "Nah, I'll take more time off the clock 'cause I'll make my free throws," right? Yeah. That's a Tyler Herro decision.
39:12
Um, the other one though is you say [laughs] storm the court. You know how, like in the Major League Baseball playoffs we always, we always laugh at the fact that those teams pop champagne every series they win? Right.
39:23
So it'd be great if- Yeah... like the Hornets cut down the nets. Became that. We win the 9-10 game- Okay [laughs]... we cut down the nets. Love that. [laughs] Uh, we also didn't talk about this part of the game earlier.
39:31
Yeah. Did you guys catch, and I'm sure there's some great, like, memes out, uh, on Twitter I missed. Did it, did you guys catch the d- the different faces of Dell Curry? Oh, yes.
39:40
Sit- sitting in the stands looking- Oh, yeah... defeated as hell. And then they're going to overtime and he's back on the Hornets bandwagon. He was- And he, then he was nervous eating most of the time.
39:48
[laughs] Dell Curry. Poor Dell. Hornet, Hornets legend. Um, all right. So let, let me just talk, let, let's finish that thought here. So tonight we have play-in games.
39:59
Obviously we have the 7-8 in the East between the Sixers and the Magic. We have the 9-10 out West between the Clippers and the Warriors. How are you playing these two games, Nick? Yeah.
40:08
I, I will say I'm a little less excited for these two compared to last night. I, I think those were kind of on paper the two best play-in games. So hopefully we can match the, the overall intensity.
40:17
But Magic-Sixers to me is probably the toughest of the four to figure out from a side perspective. You know, who knows what's going on with the Magic in any given night.
40:25
You know, there was some loose reporting yesterday that if they don't fire Jamal Mosley, then Paolo Banchero's gonna demand a trade.
40:32
Um, I, I think we were close to, to getting like a Taylor Jenkins, Michael Malone situation from last year, where, you know, I, I thought there was, it was possible that the Magic would've just made that decision down the stretch.
40:43
But e- every time I'm, I'm ready to just do a full fade of the Orlando Magic, who I, I do still have plus 245 to miss the playoffs, by the way. So I will be rooting for a Sixers win tonight.
40:52
But every time I'm, I'm just ready to say there's no way this team can keep pushing through all these injuries and all these locker room issues, they, they find a way to turn it around.
40:59
So nothing would really surprise me tonight, especially with no Embiid. This is gonna be more of a prop spot for me. I'm looking at Banchero over eight-and-a-half boards. Might even look into a double double at plus 130.
41:09
Sixers are just not a good rebounding team, whether you're looking at, you know, total rebounds given up per game, total rebound percentage.
41:15
And it doesn't really change one way or the other with or without Embiid, which was a little bit surprising when I dug into some of the on/off numbers.
41:22
You know, both of these teams finished the league, or finished the league, finished the season near the top of the league in pace over the final month of the year. So I, I do think we get a back-and-forth game.
41:30
We get a lot of shots up. Should be a high-minute night for Banchero as well. Uh, and then I'm looking at Tyrese Maxey over 29 and a half points. Just a volume play here, guys. He's gonna play a ton of minutes. Mm-hmm.
41:40
He led the NBA in minutes per game during the regular season. Nick Nurse is not afraid to play him, like, 46 minutes tonight. Uh, and obviously without Joel Embiid, he needs to be the primary engine for that offense.
41:50
We do have some big on/off splits with and without Embiid for Maxey. Uh, when Embiid does not play, he averages, like, six and a half more points per 36 minutes. Does see a pretty big drop in his assist production.
42:01
So that is why I'm on the points tonight for Maxey. What about game two though? The Warriors and the Clippers. The 9-10 game out west.
42:08
The winner, of course, will play the Phoenix Suns on Friday, uh, to determine who- Mm-hmm... the eight seed is, is out west. I know I'm supposed to play the Clippers and lay the points here.
42:17
I just cannot bring myself to do this, Nick. How are you playing this game? If I had to pick a side, it would be the Clippers, and yet you, you just know Golden State will somehow find a way to muck this up- Yep...
42:29
and, and make it closer than it should be. I, I do like the under, and, and the total's up a couple points. I found 222 and a half at BetMGM this morning. You got two bottom 10 teams in pace.
42:38
You know, Porziņģis being out there for Golden State, that does give them a little bit more of an offensive punch, but still not really sure I, I trust the overall offense for the Warriors.
42:47
And, and the Clippers, you know, really did regress offensively later in the season as well. I mean, they were basically a league average offense over the last month. So I, I do lean on the under here.
42:55
I, I think it will have that playoff feel. Uh, in terms of props, Chris Dunn over one-and-a-half steals, two-plus steals, plus 105.
43:03
Warriors had the third highest turnover rate over their final 15 games of the regular season. Dunn went over this number in 15 of his last 20, uh, including the last two matchups against Golden State.
43:12
I think he sees a heavy workload tonight chasing around Steph Curry. And then you gotta play something for Kawhi.
43:17
You know, I, similar vein to Paolo Banchero, where I think this could be a rare night where we could see 40, 41, 42 minutes out of Kawhi Leonard. It's, it's do or die for the Clippers.
43:26
So I don't mind the over seven and a half boards, the over 36 and a half points plus rebounds. He has not played 40-plus minutes since December 26th, but it has happened. There is precedent for it.
43:35
I think we could see that tonight. I will say, though, the Warriors have defended Kawhi pretty well this season.
43:40
You know, his, his worst shooting game of the year came against Golden State, 0 of 8 from beyond the arc in the middle of the year. But, uh, this is in a, in a one-game setting, Steph versus Kawhi.
43:49
I'm just, I'm not betting against Kawhi Leonard, uh, in this type of, type of setup. Uh, before you go here, Nick, four series established that begin on Saturday. Mm-hmm.
43:57
Actually, now it's five with the Blazers and the Spurs. It's the 7-2 in the West. Mm-hmm.
44:02
Uh, winner of tonight's Sixers-Magic game will have the joy of playing the Celtics in a best of seven, but we don't have that one yet. So of the five that have been established, is there a series- Mm...
44:12
price that you want to bet, or short of that, is there just a series you're looking forward to more than the others? Yeah, i- in terms of the overall series prices, there's not anything that really jumps out to me.
44:25
You know, the, the odds for, for Knicks-Hawks, I think are interesting, especially when you compare it to Cavs-Raptors.
44:31
You know, I think the Cavs and the Knicks have kinda had parallel seasons in a lot of ways, where i- you like a lot of the names, you like the...
44:38
You know, if you, if you catch them on the right night, they look like maybe the best team in the East. If you catch them on the wrong night, they look like they could lose to anybody.
44:44
And, you know, the Cavs are minus 550 to win their series against Toronto. The Knicks are only minus 275 against Atlanta, and I, I think those are honestly pretty comparable opponents, right?
44:52
They, they basically finished with the same record during the regular season. And I do wonder if the Hawks are just a little bit inflated because of how crazy soft that schedule was over the final 20 games.
45:02
So I, I actually think you're getting a reasonable price on the Knicks to, to win that series relative to the Cavs. I think both of those could be pretty similar.
45:09
But, uh, my favorite play, guys, in round one, you know, I know we, we kinda talked about it at the top of the segment with Luka. I, I just...
45:15
I don't think Luka's gonna be back, and if he is back, I don't think he's gonna look like himself. Same goes for Austin Reaves. The under five and a half games in, in Lakers-Rockets.
45:22
Even as a LeBron guy, it pains me to say it, uh, I think that's where that series is headed. God, well, I haven't heard one person say that's gonna be a competitive series. Not a one. Uh- We, we all hope it is, though.
45:33
We all hope it is. Yeah. I hope so. Uh, Nick, very basic question to, to send you out. Who's in the NBA Finals? Who's in the NBA Finals?
45:41
I will take the easy road out, guys, and say it's going to be the Thunder and the Celtics. The Thunder win that series in six games. There it is. Calling his shot.
45:50
Nick, we all look forward to Prop Points coming up at the top of the hour. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Nick Wale, everybody, co-host with Jeff Erickson, our other buddy there at the top of the hour for Prop Points.
46:00
They'll have all breakdowns of multiple sports, not just the NBA. Kelly and I will come back, we'll recap the bets next on The Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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