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Apr 16, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 16, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 16, 2024
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate it however you take this in this morning. It's a numbers game. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin- What's up?
0:21
What's up?... producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Live from Bar Canada at the D, struggling with apps in Nevada, just getting a bet in right before the show. Well done. Thanks, man.
0:31
[laughs] You timed it perfectly. Let me tell you something about the MGM app. Can we just talk about the MGM app? Oh, it's always an experience in itself.
0:36
Used, used to be a proud sponsor of the show, and I hope one day they'll be a proud sponsor of the show again, but I'll tell you this.
0:41
That app, oh my God, I have to delete it completely from my phone now and re-upload it to make a wager. Yeah, it's silly. I don't know what's going on with that one recently. Okay. All right.
0:52
But, I mean, we could go on and on. We could go on. None of, none of them are perfect. [laughs] That'll be a, that'll be a theme throughout.
0:59
Uh, we got a lot to get to, uh, on the show, not only NBA playoffs, uh, with Judensick and the NFL draft with Judensick coming up. Uh, we have added our own NFL draft bets, which we'll get to here momentarily.
1:10
Uh, it's pretty much draft and NBA focus today, though, uh, we gotta update that Guardians bet, if you know what I mean. Looking pretty good here in the middle of April.
1:18
Don't wanna get too ahead of ourselves, uh, but we'll go through that. We've got a whole bunch to get to. Um, let me just really start, though, again, with vsin.com/picks. Every host on this network, every guest,
1:31
any sport, they're all at vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
1:37
And when it comes to tennis, as you know, when we were doing hard court season, most of it or much of it was here in the United States, so I could give out the plays on the show before they actually happened.
1:49
Um, but now that most of the clay court tournaments, not most, all, are in Europe, some of the matches are going to start before the show, some are gonna happen during the show, some are gonna be after.
1:59
Uh, we hit a plus 210 dog overnight on Joao Fonseca against Lorenzo Sonego. Um, hope everybody got in on that. We do have two ladies matches that have yet to begin.
2:11
Uh, the Egyptian Mayar Sherif will begin the match sometime during the show against Yuan Yue, who is a player that, uh, a Chinese player who we played a lot on hard courts and won with.
2:23
But now on this surface, Sherif is the clay court specialist. It, it's not Yuan's favorite. We got Sherif at plus 110, but here's the deal. She is now in minus money, and this has moved about 30 cents, so I'm not...
2:36
Depending on where you can find it, uh, if you can play it anywhere below or minus 110 or below, maybe a couple pennies above that, I would play it, but if it's minus 120 or minus 125, I would not play it.
2:48
And then Yelena Ostapenko a little later on got in really short plus money. She's about minus 120, but same thing applies to her.
2:55
If you can get her at, like, minus 110 or below, I would play it on Yelena Ostapenko going up against Linda Noskova. So, uh, the clay court numbers at, at, the hard court season was spectacular.
3:07
We're back up to 26 units up, so clay has been sort of spinning the wheels, but we got back to our season high with the Fonseca win overnight.
3:15
Hopefully, the clay court numbers that are now manifesting on the men's side will manifest on the women's side. I have no reason to believe that it won't, but we shall see here with Sherif and Ostapenko. All right.
3:25
NFL draft, Kelly. Yeah. Let's put it this way. I made a conservative bet early. Yesterday, I made the sort of friskier bets. Ooh.
3:34
And I plan on making more conservative bets starting today so that if my frisky bets just turn out to be crap, then I can still turn a profit. Okay. So first bet I made was at Stations.
3:47
And by the way, shout out to Stations here in town. They were the first book to put up NFL draft props. They did it weeks, plural, ago. They take a bet beyond what others take.
3:59
Um, Caesars and Circa have capped your bets to this point. Stations does not. I made the bet on the Jaguars picking a cornerback in the first round, picking a cornerback with their first pick, in other words. Cornerback.
4:13
Um, every mock draft, literally 100% of mock drafts that I've seen, have the Jaguars taking one cornerback or another with their pick at 17. Could trades bust that up? Sure.
4:29
Trades are the problem with the frisky bets that I made yesterday, which are revolved around two things that are conventional wisdom, mock draft wisdom, um, you know, consensus right now, unlikely to happen.
4:45
So what I did is I have stuck with the Jim Harbaugh. I believe that I need to draft a offensive lineman as a cornerstone of a franchise team, and I bet Joe Alt to be the number five pick in the draft at plus 450.
5:01
Now, I've contended here, ever since we've talked about this, that Harbaugh has said this, and that while he is praising J.J. McCarthy, um, ultimately, if they keep the pick, they will go offensive line.
5:15
Now, most folks have Joe Alt going to the Titans at seven. If a trade happens with the Chargers out of five, I'm screwed right on that one immediately right off the bat. That's why he's plus 450.
5:27
But I'm gonna go with that. I'm gonna go with Jim Harbaugh's thoughts, and I took Alt the number five pick at plus 450. I took Rome Odunze as the sixth pick at plus 325.
5:38
This was a Chris Felica-focused thought, where he, uh, he said he had some intel, uh, that the Giants are really focused on Rome Odunze at number six. [clears throat] So those are the frisky bets.
5:51
And by the way, then I went to Circa. Circa released theirs yesterday. They have Rome Odunze, uh, draft position under eight and a half. I actually have a worse number that I got yesterday that is available right now.
6:02
I got that at minus 170. The hope being that he either goes to the Giants at six or someone, uh, decides to pick him prior to the, uh, the number eight pick, either who's there already or will do so via trade.
6:14
Um, so those are again, the, the Jaguars is the conservative bet. The Alt and Odunze plays are the more risky ones.
6:23
And then I believe what my strategy will be here today or tomorrow, Kelly, is that position of Jaguars bet, I may add more to it.
6:30
By the way, I was allowed to bet more on that [laughs] than the, than the, uh, less conservative ones. And I have my eyes focused on a couple other things, uh, specifically Dallas Turner at number eight to Atlanta.
6:45
Um, some variation. I don't know what prop is gonna be best in town, but I'll, I'll sort of do a cross check for every book that... By the way, we have six books that are offering NFL drafts. Circa joined yesterday.
6:57
Stations was the first. Um, so some, some combination of, of adding to the Jaguars cornerback, Dallas Turner going at eight.
7:06
B- bets focused around that, and, um, one more that I'm gonna ask you about later, 'cause it's a, a deeper dive. I like it. Yeah, the, uh, Dallas Turner bet, I made that, uh, last, end of last week I believe.
7:19
So n- uh, number eight pick for him, plus 320 I was able to get on that.
7:24
Seeing as Circa here, though, Circa g- they posted a ton of player draft positions, which is awesome, 'cause you're not getting these almost anywhere else. Yeah. Um, [tsking] I think what I would play there, I...
7:36
So I play, I played him number eight at plus 320, and then a top 10 pick at minus 115, but I'm looking right here, uh, and they've got him under nine and a half at plus money, so at plus 160, under nine and a half, uh, on Dallas Turner.
7:51
So that's probably a good bet. I might be adding a little bit more to that position. Um, okay, I've got, yeah, early bets I made, Marvin Harrison Jr.
7:59
to the Cardinals, not fourth overall pick, but to the Cardinals, 'cause that was one of the first markets up. Grabbed that minus 170.
8:06
You and I will be going a little bit head-to-head on that number five pick, 'cause I do have league neighbors there. Uh, but, you know- And we both could be wrong... Maybe we both could be wrong. You and I- Yeah...
8:13
were texting about this yesterday. Like, I think there's, I think it's very possible that you're talking about the, you know, three, four, five all looking to b- to trade out, right?
8:23
And if, and- Patriots, Cardinals, Chargers... and if that happens, and I think that's the macro thing that I wanna say about this draft.
8:29
I think we all have a sense that Caleb Williams is going one, and, uh, probably Jayden Daniels at two. Some people think Drake May. Whatever. I wish I would've bet it. I wish I would've bet Daniels at two.
8:38
I think he's going two. But I think the, the trouble begins, right, right after that. And then sort of to, for lack of a better word, re-solidifies afterwards. I, I agree. Yeah. And I think that those, the, that,
8:52
the reason that I'm getting the plus, the big plus money on the Alts and the Odunze is because it's so confusing there, and no one really knows. Mm-hmm.
8:59
No one has any sense of what's gonna happen, and those trades will blow up everything. Yeah. Um- I, I'm with you, though. I mean, on five.
9:05
If it, if the, if it's still the Chargers, it's c- it- it's wide receiver or offensive line. Gotta be. Like, I, I do think that. So I think one of us is winning [laughs] probably. Well, yeah.
9:15
Unless, of course, then they go Odunze and then, and then we both circled around it and none of us want it. Yeah. I don't, I, yeah, I still think it's neighbors ahead of Odunze, but who knows?
9:25
And there's so many good wide receivers in this, in this draft class. Actually, I just, I just added- I'm doubting this... I added over six and a half wide receivers this morning at plus 190 in the first round.
9:33
Oh, you did? Yeah. Okay. Almost two to one. That, that number's worth it for me, uh, for me to bet. I think there's a ton that... E- every, you're talking about mocks.
9:40
I feel like every mock I see, end of first round there's a new wide receiver in there from someone that I haven't seen in any other mock draft. Like, it's just incredible.
9:48
Like, the, I, I saw yesterday, like, the, the second kid on Washington being thrown in there at the, at the end of the first round. There's, like, multiple t- multiple college teams that got two wide receivers going.
9:58
It's incredible.
9:59
Um- And, and for those who have just landed on this show for the first time, it's sort of like [clears throat] with my bets, I, I sort of, you know, hearkening back to the old anti-drug campaign commercial.
10:07
Uh, baseball is my brain. Tennis is my brain on crack. And this is, the NFL draft is some other kind of drug. Right. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, totally. Absolutely.
10:15
Um, yeah, the only other things I'd bet then, I just grabbed those, uh, those quarterback bets as soon as they were posted here in town.
10:21
So over, I wish I would've hammered the over a lot heavier than I did, uh, at even money, 'cause that's way high, uh, way high now. Um, and then- Spoiler alert, this is what I'm gonna ask you about later. Okay.
10:31
And then under, under four and a half at plus money, so I've got a little, a little free roll on that one. Dallas Turner, eighth I said already, plus 320. Top 10 pick, minus 115.
10:40
And then this morning added over six and a half wide receivers plus 190, and Keon Coleman, my guy, under 46 and a half right here at Circa on the draft position.
10:49
Keon Coleman, who unbeknownst to him was playing exhibition football all of last year. [laughs] That's, that's, that's right. Um, C.J. Stroud has chimed in on those, this is true, C.J.
10:58
Stroud has chimed in on those who are considering drafting his ex-teammate, Marvin Harrison Jr., and who are supposedly wavering on whether or not to do that or considering other options. Uh, the C.J.
11:12
Stroud quote this morning was, "Don't be dumb." [laughs] He's like, "You got..." Basically, he's like, "You gotta be kidding me." I kind of- "Draft him."
11:19
I kind of feel like I was never that guy, Gil, like, for the past two years that was like, "Whoa, Marvin Harrison Jr., he's the greatest thing on planet Earth." But, like, I'm just, I'm believing those kind of comments.
11:29
But that's how- You know what I mean? Like- That's how I feel about Odunze. Like, every time you watched him, were you, was there any thought other than this guy is awesome?
11:37
You know, no, no, I'm saying I didn't have that necessarily- Yeah... when I watched Marvin Harrison. Right. But I'm listening to people that are like, "Don't be an idiot. He's the clear-cut number one."
11:46
Trust in the evaluators. Yeah. Drew Dincic's got thoughts. NBA and NFL next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with the free VSiN daily newsletter. In today's newsletter... The NBA playoffs betting primer is here.
12:11
Zach Cohen, JBT, myself break it all down for you. Get set for the NBA playoffs. That and more. Let's go. Get expert analysis and the latest odds delivered straight to your inbox absolutely free.
12:19
Visit vsin.com/newsletter to subscribe. No chance for small talk. Too much to talk about with Drew Dincic.
12:27
He is the co-host, of course, of not only the Deep Dive podcast, which he does with Andy Molator, Dincic classic, but also new Dincic NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher, @whale_capper on Twitter, comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
12:41
Let me just start here, Drew. Um, how smug are you right now that you're gonna win your Go Bear Defensive Player of the Year award? It's gonna come home for you, isn't it? [laughs] I think so.
12:53
Uh, but, uh, not very smug at all, man. I've been just eating hum- humble pie for going on a month and a half now. [laughs] Um, I just took, took an absolute bath in the Masters.
13:02
Uh, the-- I finally capitulated, uh, and kind of gave up the, the ghost that the Thunder were gonna win the one seed and bought all of this, uh, Nuggets, uh, um, to win the Northwest, and then they lose to the Spurs in a collapse in the fourth quarter on Friday, and I was just like, "I can't believe what I'm seeing."
13:22
Uh, and, uh, ultimately, um, yeah, there are... I could go on and on. There are so many examples of the way things kind of broke against me.
13:29
If, if, uh, uh, if the Magic had choked that, uh, seemingly im- insurmountable lead to the Heat in the S- in the Southeast, uh, I would have been, uh, like, "Oh, man, I need to take a serious break here."
13:40
[chuckles] Yeah. Well, I will say this, that that Spurs Nuggets finish might have been the most unlikely, given the stakes, right- Yeah... that the Nuggets had.
13:50
Maybe it was the most unlikely stretch of basketball of the entire season. So, um- Yeah... you, you can't be blamed necessarily for that. Let, let us begin with the play-in games. Western Conference play-ins tonight.
14:02
Eastern Conference play-ins tomorrow.
14:04
Uh, tonight we have the, the seven-eight between the Lakers and the Pelicans, where the Pelicans are one-and-a-half point favorites, and then we got the nine-ten, where the Warriors, on the road, two point favorites at Sacramento.
14:16
Any thoughts or bets on these? Yeah. So I will say that the, uh, the later game is the easier one to just kind of file for, for now, because I think those are pretty much perfect numbers.
14:26
Uh, they opened that total about four points too high, and it's adjusted to almost exactly where my fare is, so I'm, I'm pretty fine with, uh, you know, Warriors small favorites total in the, uh, low two-twenties.
14:37
Uh, the opening game, uh, that will, you know, give you a date with destiny here. Uh, a win puts you, uh, directly in the crosshairs of the mighty Nuggets.
14:47
Um, yeah, the-- I'm surprised that, uh, the Lakers, uh, don't have as much support as they did on Sunday.
14:53
Uh, that was one of the more interesting kind of individual game markets on Sunday, where, um, you know, you saw them head into New Orleans and, you know, the stakes were pretty high for New Orleans in that game, obviously.
15:03
And, uh, the Lakers got bet aggressively into the close, and they ultimately, you know, kind of won going away.
15:10
And, um, if you-- You know, I, I've been paying attention to Lakers and Pelicans a lot down the stretch here just 'cause of various, you know, random bets and, um, I wasn't surprised to see the Lakers have so much support in that market.
15:22
And I actually thought this game was gonna come in closer to a, a pick'em, uh, and, you know, opening betting kind of sh- uh, suggested that.
15:29
But, uh, there's been late Pelicans support here and, um, you know, I, I can make a very soft argument for why a Pelicans number might be a little bit, uh, appealing to people.
15:38
Like, if you're using, uh, the season-long sample where Brandon Ingram was fully available for this team, uh, and you basically had this roster, like, yeah, the, their power rating was better than the Lakers'.
15:48
Uh, they have the home court. Uh, like, you know, there, there are definitely ways to get to a fair where the Pelicans are small favorites here.
15:55
But I, I personally think that the Lakers and the way that, particularly the way that that supporting cast is playing right now and the fact that you have, uh, you know, your key players peaking at the right time, this is, uh, this is a bad matchup for New Orleans.
16:06
And, uh, New Orleans is a little bit of a flawed team.
16:08
They're a little bit of a sol- solvable team, uh, because they really just-- they have some structural flaws with the way that they have to use Zion Williamson, and I think ultimately the, um, the matchup that the Lakers bring to the table with, uh, you know, kind of anchoring that defense on Anthony Davis is pretty perfect to stop these guys.
16:26
And it's gonna take, uh, you know, a, a positive shooting performance from the likes of the Trey Murphys of the world and, um, you know, you're gonna need, uh, uh, you know, g- Herb Jones to just completely and totally take, uh, D'Angelo Russell out of this game if the Pelicans think they're gonna get a win here.
16:42
So, um, yeah, I mean, I, I wouldn't be shocked at all if we see a lot more of, like, a, a repeat of what we saw on Sunday. Nothing on the Dubs and the Kings? Nothing tonight on that? Yes.
16:51
Well, I have under, but it's not at current market. [laughs] Okay. Okay. All right. Uh, I'm, I'm, I'm holding under two-twenty-six. I don't think this was, uh-- I, I don't really understand how that one got there, right?
17:05
So this is a, um, um, a rematch, obviously, of last year's, uh, you know, first round playoff series, and that was a f- really, really fun series in so many ways.
17:15
But, uh, that was a full-strength Sacramento Kings team, uh, and in general, it was, uh, just a kind of a wide open just offensive, uh, series to start and then kind of wound down in possessions as they kind of figured each other out.
17:27
And, uh, I ha- I was expecting this one to kind of open in the two-twenty-two range and, uh, opened at two-twenty-eight and a half.
17:34
That's one of the bigger misses I can remember in any kind of, like, high stakes, uh, market like this. So, um, yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm holding some pretty significant under here. I hope it's a close game.
17:44
I hope the fourth quarter kind of slows down a little bit. And just in general, without the firepower of Kevin Huerter and, um, Malik Monk, the Kings have had to pivot to being a more, uh, defensive-minded team.
17:55
Uh, when they do kind of let things go and just kind of have a little bit more offensive flow, uh, their defense, and particularly in transition, is just h- completely habitable.
18:03
And so, um, you know, for the most part, they've tried to slow things down, uh, and they've tried to just in general get a little bit more defensive coherence, and it's not really working especially well.
18:13
And I think the, uh, Warriors, particularly with, uh, you know, Curry and, uh, and Draymond kind of anchoring offense and defense is, is gonna be a tough, uh, thing for Sacramento to handle in this one.
18:24
And, uh, ultimately, I think, uh, Golden State as a small favorite makes sense to me. But I wouldn't go and, you know, go nuts and lay, lay the points here with Golden State.
18:32
I think they're gonna come through, but I think it'll be a competitive game. Real quick, 'cause we won't have a chance to talk to you beforehand. Uh, tomorrow night's the Eastern Conference play-ins.
18:38
Seven- seven-eight, Sixers-Heat, with the Sixers favored by four and a half. Then the nine-ten between the Bulls and the Hawks, with the Bulls favored by three. Yeah, I think the, uh, number in Miami-Philly is right.
18:49
Four and a half is, is where I would be at. I played some under there as well, and that's still kind of in range. It's at 206 and a half right now. I bet into 207 and a half. Um,
18:59
I really, I- I'm just not exactly sure what you're gonna see, uh, from the Miami, uh, bench unit in that one. That's kind of the deciding factor as far as I could tell you.
19:07
The, um, the Sixers', uh, starters have such a clear and obvious advantage over the, uh, Miami starters that, you know, kind of expecting the Sixers to get out to a decent lead, maybe pa- play the Sixers first quarter w- minus one and a half is, is kind of in the, uh, in the cards here for me.
19:23
But, uh, I think, you know, Philadelphia could take advantage of their match-ups, uh, when Embiid is on the floor, and I think, uh, Miami's gonna really, really need their bench unit to step up to make this game competitive.
19:34
Uh, I think they play it on April 4th, and that was really kind of the tale of the tape there.
19:38
Like, the, uh, the bench unit, kind of anchored by Kevin Love, were able to kind of claw back, uh, some pretty aggressive deficits and make that a competitive game, and I think that's pretty much where Miami sits in this one.
19:48
Um, I w- you know, their, their best case scenario, can Miami win? Yes. Uh, you know, like, if they're within a bucket and, uh, you know, Jimmy puts his cape on in the fourth quarter, uh, can they steal this one?
19:58
Absolutely.
19:59
Like, there are definitely still some questions about a lot of what Philadelphia's trying to do offensively, um, you know, particularly in the end of game that they didn't get a chance to work out 'cause they just didn't have Embiid available for the whole second half of the season.
20:10
And I, I think ultimately Miami could, uh, find a way to steal, but they're gonna have to be close, which means the bench is gonna have to close gaps.
20:17
And, uh, so I think kind of watching those minutes, particularly in the first half, and kind of gauging whether Miami's up to the task is gonna be, uh, kind of helpful for making a second half bet there. Okay.
20:27
Hawks-Bulls nothing? Hawks-Bulls, I played the over. 220 is kind of disrespectful. Atlanta's got a very, very, very capable offense, uh, and a very questionable defense.
20:37
Chicago's players in general, like everybody that's in their closing five, I have huge questions about all of their defensive limitations.
20:43
I, I really don't understand how this one's staying under 230, and, uh, that's probably the biggest edge on the board for me at currently, at current price. Okay.
20:51
Uh, wanna get to the four series that are already lined and that begin on Thursday night. Of the four, two on Thursday, scheduled, uh, two on Friday.
21:01
Of the four that exist, just so we could squeeze in one before the break, which is the one that you have the least thoughts and/or bets on? Uh, I... Least thoughts or bets? Ooh. Uh, probably the Magic and the Cavs.
21:16
Um, I don't think there's a case to be made for the dog there.
21:19
Uh, it's pretty obvious, at least to me, that, uh, kind of the specific, the, the singular impact of, uh, of a Donovan Mitchell in the series like that is, is gonna be tough for the Magic to match.
21:30
And, uh, the Magic's kind of, uh, struggle, their, their kind of stumble into the close was, uh, it was a tough hang.
21:37
Uh, and the end of se- end of game, uh, high leverage moments where, you know, basically they gave the ball to Paolo and said, "Hey, man, go do something."
21:44
And he would have, uh, pretty obvious opportunities to drive, drove halfway down the lane, turned his back on the basket, and looking around for anybody, anybody, anybody gonna do anything? No?
21:55
Okay, I'll just take a, you know, a last second heave into the clock is just, it's, that is, is, you know, kind of classic, like this stuff will doom you, uh, in the playoffs when you are watching it at the end of the regular season.
22:05
And, uh, you know, I, I don't think the Magic have solved anything. I think this is gonna be pretty likely the Cavs, uh, to lose.
22:11
And, uh, you know, close games will tilt in their favor because of Donovan Mitchell particularly.
22:15
And, uh, and then there definitely could be some games where the Cavs are just clicking, particularly at home, and, and the Magic can't answer. All right.
22:22
Cavaliers four and a half point favorites in game one on Thursday in Cleveland. They are minus 185 series favorites, best of seven against the Magic. That's the four-five of the East.
22:32
We'll get to the Suns, and the T-Wolves, and the Mavericks, and the Clippers out West, and that Pacers-Bucks series as well.
22:37
Plus Drew's NFL draft bets, what he's made, what he's looking for, how he feels about the draft, all of that. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do.
22:53
One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV.
23:05
However you're taking us in, we are very grateful. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D in downtown Las Vegas. Still to come this hour, uh, Paul Spohn on Major League Baseball.
23:15
Paul Carr about to join us for some Champions League. I should probably read some tweets. We get tweets at Betting The Book. Uh, this is from, uh, Jesse Welch.
23:22
"Man, what a day for most wins by the end of April for our Guardians. Yankees, Dodgers, Pirates, Brewers all lose, and Cleveland, uh, takes down the, uh, marathon Monday from the Sox." Oh, yes.
23:35
Aware of all of it, and it has got me so locked into baseball this bet, it's incredible. That's great. We'll upda- we'll update the standings here momentarily.
23:42
It's a great bet to start the season 'cause it just b- it just brings you in. Locks you in. It locks you in immediately to tracking baseball. Absolutely. Absolutely. When there's so much other stuff going on too.
23:49
And then I worry what happens May 1st. Do I just check out? I'm like, "Oh, that was fun." [laughs] No, you won't because it'll be one of the few things actually going on. Yeah. That's right.
23:56
JasonH11, uh, here's a summary of the MGM app. Oh, he doesn't like it.
24:00
He said, uh, iPhone facial recognition doesn't work, the iPad thumb recognition doesn't work, betting options that are half or two-thirds of the other two. Big ones, DK and the other one.
24:09
Does it make me a bad person to th- uh, to, to say I'm glad to hear there's people h- outside of Nevada having issues? [laughs] Nope. Nope.
24:17
A Wolf Named Wayne, "Sometimes when the numbers for your tennis bets have gotten away from us, I will wait for the match to start and if our opponent takes the first game, you can jump on with a better number."
24:27
There you go. Brad, uh, Brad Billups wants to talk more baseball. We will with Paul Spohn coming up, I promise. Uh, Bill Hooker, um,
24:35
it's a scavenger hunt sometimes to find your tennis bets 'cause you gotta click on your name, I think is what he's saying. So he wants more accessibility to them. And then, oh, this is a great one.
24:45
[laughs] This is from Jason. "Drew, ask for the name of the sushi place before you agree to another segment."
24:51
[laughs]Paul Carr joins us from the heartland of Doug Champions League with us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
24:58
He is the host of the Expected Value podcast, and of course, he works at True Media Networks, spreading the analytics gospel across North American sports. I believe that's your company motto, is it not, Paul?
25:10
Yeah, close enough. We'll go with it. Yeah. Yeah, we go... Sure. Yeah. Okay. Close. All right. And Gil, I have to ask. Oh, yes, please. Do you know what team has the best run differential in baseball?
25:17
Uh, that would be the Kansas City Royals. Uh- The mighty Kansas City Royals... edging the Cleveland Guardians. Uh, I know- Right... yes. This is how obsessed I am with this bet, that every night I will update.
25:28
Y- yeah, Paul. Yeah. This is how he knows. Yeah. Because he writes them down- Yeah... every single night. No, 'cause I wanna see how, how screwed we get at the end, right? We're gonna be the best. Yeah. Like, we.
25:38
I'm just borrowing them for a month, Adam Burke. Just borrowing the tribe for a month. I'll give them back May 1st. Um, yeah, no, it's the Royals. It's the Royals- Yeah... who, by the way, are in this as well. Hm?
25:49
They are the fly in the- Yeah, all the way... the fly in the ointment I didn't expect, the Kansas City Royals. My, uh, annual Bobby Witt MVP bet. Looking good right now. It actually is. It sure is. Yeah.
25:59
By the way, the- I got, like, plus 2,000. Last I looked it was, like, plus 700, so. Quiet, quietly a little-known player by the name of Mike Trout also in a, a co-leader in the home run race should be- Heard of him...
26:09
pointed out, you know. Yeah. Um, but Bobby Witt having a great start to the season. All right. So this is the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals. First leg we had couple draws.
26:21
Arsenal-Bayern Munich, Real Madrid-Man City. You called one of those, right? Uh, let's see. The Man City, yeah. Madrid-Man City had the draw. Yeah. Yeah, that was the one I got.
26:30
Arsenal-Bayern had the under, and that ended after, like, three minutes or something ridiculous. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah. That wasn't fun. It was a bad week for unders. [laughs] That's right, it was.
26:39
Uh, Barcelona beat PSG 3 to 2. That's Barcelona, Kelly, by the way. And, uh, Atlético Madrid beat Dortmund 2 to 1. So those were the results in the first leg. Now explain to the party people out there, as we always do,
26:53
what that means for the second leg. What is the, the thing you have to watch out for now? Yeah, it's aggregate goals. So it's total goals over the two legs.
27:03
So in the case of the draws, you know, it's fairly straightforward in that you win, you advance, you draw, you go to extra time.
27:10
But it gets weird in things like Barcelona-PSG, where Barcelona is completely fine with a draw because they will go through.
27:17
So that's where you'll see the numbers get a little wonky, when a draw is enough to put a team through. It gets weird. Got a little weird, didn't it, Goldfinger? Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] That's right, yeah, at the end.
27:28
Uh, okay. So that said, um, you have thoughts on all four. Let's begin with today's two matches. Let's begin with Barcelona and PSG. Once again, just to update where the score is, Barcelona won that first leg 3 to 2.
27:44
This one should be maybe the most fun of the four just from a pure entertainment standpoint because the first one, again, it was 3 to 2. Neither team has a lot of teeth in the midfield.
27:53
You know, they don't have that enforcer type, so it was wide open with lots of people running free.
27:58
Uh, Barcelona, one of their starting center backs is out suspended, had a midfielder out suspended in Christensen and Sergio Roberto, so that should make things even a little more open.
28:08
Uh, and I just think that's what this one's gonna be like, too. Kylian Mbappé is on PSG. You expect him to, you know, do what he does, run free, uh, get a goal.
28:17
You know, he's roughly even money for a goal, which is, just tells the likelihood there. So I just think one way or another we're gonna get goals here. I could see this going either way.
28:25
If I had to pick a side, I'd probably lean Barcelona a little bit, but I'm just playing the over three and a half at plus 110. I just think one way or another, this is, like, a 3-1 type of game, could go either way.
28:36
2-2 would be fine with Barcelona. So I think we get goals here. All right. We get goals. Barcelona-PSG over three and a half. Short plus money there for Paul.
28:45
Uh, and then the other one is the Dortmund-Atlético Madrid match, uh, which again, first, uh, leg of this. Atlético Madrid won 2 to 1.
28:55
Yeah, and Atlético got a couple early goals 'cause Dortmund kind of forgot how to pass the ball at the back and gave Atlético a couple easy chances.
29:01
Uh, once Dortmund finally started pouring it on the last 15, 20 minutes, they looked pretty good. They got one goal, could've easily gotten another.
29:08
They're going home, which is one of the most intimidating environments to play in in all of Europe. I just think Dortmund gets this done here, and by get this done, I mean win the game in 90 minutes.
29:19
That doesn't necessarily mean they're going to advance. This is a to win the game bet at plus 125 that I have. So if they win, say, one-nil or 2-1, we go to extra time, but you win that 90-minute bet. Okay.
29:31
Good clarification. Sure. Now let's go to tomorrow. Uh, Bayern and Arsenal. By the way, uh, Kelly, Bayern and, uh, Dortmund, do you know what league they're in, by the way? Uh, that would be, uh...
29:40
Oh my God, why am I blanking on it right now? Just want to hear you- The Bundesliga. That's what I wanted to hear him say. The Bundesliga. I just want to hear him say it. [laughs] God. I love how he says it.
29:48
Uh, all right, so, uh, on the, in, in terms of the Bayern, uh, Arsenal game tomorrow, which again was a 2-2 draw in the first leg, you don't have a play in this one? Nothing yet. I, I kind of lean Arsenal on the whole.
30:00
The big question mark here is Martin Ødegaard in midfielder for Arsenal. Uh, it's, it looked like he wasn't gonna play today. It's kind of looking like he is, but the game's not till tomorrow, so we're not really sure.
30:11
So I'm staying away from this. It's a weird game because Bayern historically is the team you trust, and Arsenal's the team you don't.
30:18
For most of this season, it's been the other way around, but then Arsenal laid an egg in the Premier League this weekend, uh, losing to Aston Villa.
30:25
Bayern, you know, looked pretty good, got a couple goals against Arsenal in the first leg. So I'm, I'm staying away for now. Bayern has a lot of injuries. Arsenal may have a couple key guys out.
30:34
So I'm staying away, though I, I lean Arsenal on the whole, even though this one's in Germany. The way that Kelly says Bundesliga, it sort of, like, shudder, I guess shudder goes down my spine. You know what I mean?
30:42
You know what I'm talking about? [laughs] Um, all right, and then it's, uh, Man City and Real Madrid, which again, that resulted in a 3 to 3 tie in the first leg.
30:50
You do have a thought on this one, and you do have a play. I do. This, this game was drunk, really. I mean, there was 3-3, but the total expected goals were 1.5. You know, there, there were deflected goals.
31:01
City's three goals all came from outside the box. Jeez. It's one of those where, like, everything goes in Uh, great finishes all around. It was very entertaining.
31:07
Uh, bad if you had the under, but obviously good if you had the draw. Uh, I, I mean, I'm not going out on a limb here, but I like City just to win this one. You know, they just have to win to advance. Uh, last year
31:18
these teams drew in Madrid in the first leg, and then City won the second leg four-nil. Now it wasn't...
31:23
They got a couple at the end when Madrid just was desperately pushing forward, but City really controlled that game. I think we'll see more of the same here. Uh, the front line for City is all healthy.
31:32
And yeah, they've scored multiple goals in 18 of their 23 home games this season, so they, you know, they just get things done.
31:38
And despite Madrid's talent, really good coaching, Ancelotti can know what to do, I just think City, uh, especially if they get Kyle Walker, one of their better defenders, back, I just think they find a way to win this one in regulation.
31:49
So I took the City win at minus 155. All right, so to review, Barcelona PSG, the over three and a half today. Uh, Dortmund and Atletico, uh, you got Dortmund beating them, plus money, plus 125.
32:00
Dortmund over Atletico today. And then tomorrow Man City to win outright against Real Madrid. You'll have to lay a little juice on that one. Yes. But you got Man City there. Okay.
32:10
Um, is there a play to win the Champions League in the outright market that you like right now, or are you staying away from that? I mean,
32:17
all the teams on the, I'll call it the weak side of the bracket, all those odds are pretty decent. It just kind of depends which way you wanna go, because one of those teams obviously has to get to the final.
32:27
So, you know, if you think, for example, PSG is gonna come through in Madrid, you can get a PSG price at plus 1,400, which is pretty crazy.
32:35
Um, th- there's not one I particularly love, but I think you could justify anybody on that half. You know, Atletico plus, what is it?
32:42
Plus 800, plus 900, something in that range, that you can get, and they're, you know, ahead going into this game. You wanna get nuts and take Dortmund plus 3500?
32:51
You know, it's not terrible because I, like I said, I think they can easily win this game. They're about two to one to advance, and then they'll be a slight underdog in that next round. So there's, there's nobody I love.
33:02
I do have a PSG, I had a PSG 10 to one before the first leg, so that price doesn't look great now, but that's the one I'm just kind of standing on right now. All right. Premier League, same question. Nothing right now?
33:15
I mean, this is the time. I, I like an Arsenal option more than City. I think Arsenal's like plus 340, give or take. Um, I have an Arsenal future already from preseason.
33:24
So I think Liverpool, they're, they may have just run their course with the injuries. Sorry, Felika. Um, but City's the clear favorite. [laughs] But if you need to take a shot, Arsenal is the way I would look there.
33:33
Oh, he's listening. He just heard that. Shots fired. I know. I hear a good angry text incoming. Man City, a two-point lead currently over both Arsenal and Liverpool with six matches to go in the Premier League.
33:44
Uh, one, uh, off league soccer comment. Let's go Crawley Town today. This is huge. Oh. Uh, yeah. For- Where they at? Uh, they're, they're taking on Barrow, is it? Barrow? In, uh- Yeah. Sure...
33:59
in, uh, in Football League Two, Kelly. This is big for those, for some of us around here because our buddy Preston Johnson is the owner of this team. Yeah.
34:06
And this has huge implications in terms of, I don't know, what is it? Moving up to the next league, or, uh, you know- Yeah... he, he did it all by- Trying to get up to League One. Trying to get up to League One.
34:16
A, a owner that was criticized and reviled when he first got there for being a Yankee owner who was trying all these new tactics, and now through Moneyball, look at them now. Come on, Crawley. That's for- All right.
34:30
Let's go Crawley... that's for Preston and Jason and all those guys. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it, man. Courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Yes. We'll come back. NFL draft with Kelly and me next.
34:39
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. And then Kelly, Will Hill says to me, "Yours is the last show I'm gonna appear on live in person."
34:56
[laughs] Oh, sorry. For a limited time, we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits for free. Just sign up at vsin.com/splits.
35:03
The VSiN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in all the action, find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money does not match the public opinion.
35:12
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35:23
Split bets. Uh, don't strike out on potential winnings. Visit vsin.com/splits to start making smarter bets today.
35:30
By the way, uh, Will Hill was on, uh, was on, uh, Sharp Money yesterday, and I think he's gonna be on every other show. And then, uh, tomorrow he'll be with us, I'm told. He's a popular guy, man. Yeah, man.
35:40
He's, uh, he's like the Sambo bomb. He's on, they're on every show. Sambo bomb. It's what happens. They're g- they're g- they're, uh, good guys to have on. Yeah, man. I understand it. Can't wait for that. Um, okay.
35:51
Can I just put this up first before we get to Spoor? This is the updated for those who have, uh, jumped on the Guardians bet. Again, this was posted by Circa. Shout out to Circa for putting this up.
36:02
Most wins, March and April. Remember the March part of this, there was like three or four games at the beginning of March, unless you were the...
36:08
Excuse me, I think it was like three games, unless you were the Dodgers or Padres where you already had two games in hand because of your two games in Korea.
36:15
And so, again, this was a very, this is a, a different sort of bet, uh, like my Braves one a couple years ago to win the division where I bet it every day.
36:23
This was just, I always love baseball bets because it requires sort of a little bit of multidimensional thinking. And so with the Guardians, the, the price was 65 to one. To me, that was a number you had to bet.
36:35
Their schedule was such that they played the Athletic seven times, they played the White Sox three times, and I didn't have the Red Sox rated very highly.
36:42
They played them seven times, at least that's what the schedule was moving forward. So to me, based on schedule alone, I believed that that was a great bet at 65 to one.
36:50
Now, along the way, and this is with the Dodgers having a couple games in hand as well- I forgot what number you got on. Were the Dodgers big favorites in that market?
36:58
Uh, the Dodgers and the, the Dodgers were the short shot. Okay. Not only because they had the two games in hand- Right. Yeah, yeah... because they're the Dodgers. By the way, they split those games in Korea.
37:05
Um, so here's the deal. The tiebreaker is fewest losses. If you end up tied in wins, the tiebreaker is fewest losses.
37:12
Along the way now, the Guardians have lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery And, I've got to say we, [laughs] and they've lost a game due to weather in Minnesota.
37:24
Part of the handicap on this was also that they didn't play a home game in Cleveland until April 8th. That was my way of trying to minimize the effects of weather. But we still got got in Minnesota.
37:34
So one, basically teams either have 14 or 13 games remaining. The Guardians, because of that loss of a game, have 13. They're in the 13 pool.
37:44
But right now they are in second place here at, uh, the middle of April with 15 days left and either 14 or 13 games left respectively, 13 for the Guardians.
37:54
Second place behind the New York Yankees, who took a series from the Guardians over the weekend, two games out of three, which featured a dramatic Guardians comeback on Sunday, down 3-0 and also down 7-5.
38:08
Though they were an out away from winning in the ninth, I should point out.
38:11
And then a really bad called strike in game one against Florian Esteval that probably decided that game, and the Guardians, preventing the Guardians from having a chance. Anyway, here we are. This is awesome.
38:24
Either way, it's a great bet. Let's get it on. Let's go, man. Paul Spoor joins us, ladies and gentlemen, @Spoor from FanGraphs, the greatest baseball Bible there ever has been. Asleeper and The Bus podcast.
38:35
He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Paulie? I'm doing very well. How about you guys? I'm, I'm well. Are you excited for my Guardians bet? Are you excited by this? A- absolutely.
38:44
I like the Guards, man. You know, I was, uh, I, I was of the mind that every Central team has a case except for the White Sox, of course. So those other four, you can make a really strong case for them this year.
38:54
Royals looking strong as a nice little upstart. My Tigers are at least pitching well. Twins are fine, and the Guards are kind of one of the, uh, the hottest teams coming out of the gates. Yeah. So yeah, I, I like it.
39:04
Uh, it sucks about Bieber. Pitching is usually their thing. I'll tell you what, though, the reason that you're, you're in this and feeling good so far is their, their hitting's really stepped up. Yes. Yes.
39:13
Hitting has stepped up, for sure. And, uh, they are a, they're a very complete baseball team. We knew they'd be a complete baseball team.
39:19
And because of the short runway, um, and the schedule and all the other factors, including, uh, weather, I just thought it was a good bet. So we shall see if that gets there. But every night, this is an obsession.
39:29
You brought up the White Sox. Um, God, they're bad. Like they are really bad. Uh, we have a few bad teams. Chris Falica was talking about the Marlins to get the worst record, uh, when all is said and done this year.
39:42
Still 25 to 1. They're 3-14. Obviously, the Marlins, Rockies, and White Sox are the worst three teams in baseball record-wise thus far.
39:51
Would you make a 25 to 1 bet on the Marlins to have the worst record when all is said and done? I think it's viable. I mean, they just sent out their best pitcher, too, in, in Max Meyer. And
40:02
I, I don't think it's entirely, you know, uh, contract manipulation type stuff. He was never gonna just be up and, and ready to go f- you know, entirely for the whole year coming off TJ.
40:13
In fact, it was a kind of a surprise that Max Meyer broke camp, but they had so many injuries that they just kind of had to. I think we could actually see something similar with Casey Mize in Detroit.
40:22
We'll see how they handle h- uh, him. He had kind of that extended return from TJ. But yeah, I mean, you look at this, you look at this Marlins team, they can't hit for anything. So they have some good pitching.
40:32
They got some guys coming back. 25 to 1 is enough to take a look. I don't think it's gonna come in, which should you, how many bets should you really do that if you don't think they're gonna come in?
40:43
But I think the odds are pretty good considering, uh, where this team, you know, some people had them making the playoffs again this year. Yeah.
40:50
By the way, last night, and we had a transcriber on, the Dodgers are actually 11 and 8. The Dodgers were 11 and 8, not 11 and 7. I, I actually transcribed it wrong. My bad, uh, Kelly.
41:00
Um, they're 11 and 8, which for the Dodgers doesn't sound all that dominant and really- Sure... quite frankly isn't.
41:06
And last night, depending on where you looked, they were either north or just south of a $4 favorite against the Washington Nationals, and the Natties took them down.
41:15
Because it seems like in our lifetime, whenever there is a team that is flirting with or either exceeds a $4 favorite in any one baseball game, the dog always seems to come home. It's really unbelievable.
41:28
I think we've talked about this before. We have. Um, I think in the context of the Dodgers and how we would never take the Dodgers then. No. We would take any team.
41:37
We would take a Triple A team, I think we had gotten so far as to saying, just because the simple odds of it, uh, are, you know, you keep hammering that all year. That's the right move when it gets that high. Yeah.
41:47
And like you said, you know, they haven't shown the outward over-the-top dominance. Now, I understand why it got that high yesterday.
41:53
You got Tyler Glasnow pitching some of the best baseball that we've seen out of him versus somebody who may or may not be a real player named Mitchell Parker. [laughs] I can't confirm or deny.
42:03
Uh, he has a picture here, but AI is very handy these days. No, no, no shade to Mitchell Parker. Went out there, threw a gem. Five innings, two runs on four hits, no walks, four Ks.
42:12
And Glasnow got knocked around a little bit, uh, obviously against expectation there. But yeah, I'm never, never taking a $4 favorite. I'm barely taking a $3 favorite ever, to be quite honest. Uh, two questions.
42:23
What's your cat's name? Cat is making an appearance behind your right shoulder. That, that, that is another dog. Oh, it's a dog. That is a dog. I'm sorry. It was a dog. [laughs] That is Henry. Oh, Henry.
42:30
I thought it was a cat when I looked. Oh, look. [laughs] I just stabbed my head up. Charlotte disappeared. I was like, "I haven't seen a cat before." No, Henry. No, no, no cat. I'm allergic to cats. That's Henry.
42:37
He's a King Charles Cavalier Spaniel. He's- All right... he's a real sweetheart. He's hanging around. I don't know where Charlotte is, but yeah, they're, they're both here.
42:44
My girlfriend works, uh, in the office on Monday and Tuesday, so the dogs actually hang out with me for a little bit. We, we have a history- They have to... we have a history of Paul Spoor dog appearances on this show.
42:51
Yes. [laughs] Charlotte once vomited while we were doing a, uh, hit on this, [laughs] on this show. And I had to prevent her from eating it. Yeah, it's- Sorry to be gross...
42:58
and it was you, you were multitasking very well. So by the way, if you are a Dodgers fan, I, I assume there's no reason to panic. But what, I mean, there is reason for concern, right?
43:07
Like the back end of the lineup- Oh... isn't spectacular and the pitching has holes. Yeah, but it's, it's the full season grind.
43:14
And I, I know I'm gonna have to update my reference at some point, uh, 'cause I keep going back to, like, uh, load management Spurs, and obviously the Spurs haven't been good in quite some time.
43:23
But I'm, you know, I'm thinking of the peak Spurs there, where they kind of coasted through the season, still would get a top seed. That's kind of where I think the Dodgers are these days, though.
43:33
Like, they know it's a buck 62 with the six months. They just lost Bobby Miller, which is nerve-wracking because they're pitching for, for a team that like them, that, you know, are they gonna win 120?
43:45
No, they're not, by the way. But, like, you know, that was, that was the kind of chatter before the season. They didn't quite have the rotation on lock to garner that kind of talk, in my opinion.
43:55
You've got Glasnow, who's never thrown more than 120 innings. Bobby Miller going into his sophomore campaign. Yamamoto coming over from halfway across the world. And then rookies and, and retreads.
44:05
You know, Gavin Stone, uh, who I really like, Michael Grove, and then James Paxton, how mu- how many innings can he get? What's Kershaw gonna be?
44:12
So a lot of questions in the pitching for a team that is expected to easily clear 100-plus wins. That said, they probably still will, just by sheer virtue of, of their overwhelming force of volume of talent. Yeah. Right?
44:25
They have made it so that they can lose a Bobby Miller and barely flinch. Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough will do tandem starts. And I'm not saying that they'll be Bobby Miller, but they'll be pretty darn good.
44:37
You know, they gave away Michael Busch to the Cubs, and they do not feel it. They- 26-year-old just mashing homers five games in a row. It does- They- You mentioned the bottom half of their lineup could be better.
44:47
Sure, and maybe he would be at second, kicking the ball around and hitting homers instead of Gavin Lux. But they do not feel that loss- Yeah, they-... uh, by, by just giving him away. They're so deep.
44:56
And I just wanna mention, you're right, they probably will flirt with 100, but they also flirt with 60 wins. They will lose that many times, you know? 60 losses, yes. Yeah. Um, all right, real quick, DFS, rapid fire.
45:05
What do you got? Um, so a lot, a lot of pitching today that I, I'm definitely interested in. Jared Jones against the Mets. They've been hitting a little bit better, but I love what Jones is doing.
45:13
Uh, Tanner Bibee, somebody I really like. And then attack, you know, go with those Dodgers against Patrick Corbin. Hunter Brown looks horrendous. Pick up your Braves.
45:21
Braves-Dodgers, pretty obvious, but I'm just gonna play the chalk today and keep it simple. All right. Let's go, Guardians. Let's get it done. Paul Spohrer, @spohrer. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it, man. Thanks, guys.
45:32
Take care. One of great numbers game moments when he is, uh, I'm peppering him with Astros questions, and he's trying to prevent his dog from eating his bobbin. Kelly on the NBA next.
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