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Apr 16, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 16, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 16, 2025
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33:51
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. I'm radio's Gil Alexander. That's radio's Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
0:24
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's happening, man? Not much. How you doing? I'm good. Um, you have play-in fever yet? I do. That was a, uh, heck of a game last night.
0:36
Felt like it went on for seven hours. I gotta talk to you about that game. Uh, we'll, we'll talk about both games here briefly, momentarily. More play-in games tonight, the nine, tens tonight.
0:44
Uh, we are jammed with guests today. Jam. Will Hill joins us, host of the Should've Bet More podcast. Uh, give all his plays, Major League Baseball, NFL draft, whatever he's betting.
0:55
Always a pleasure to check in with Will.
0:57
JVT, uh, VSiN host, senior NBA analyst, samesies on him, everything he's betting, including not only the NBA play-in games tonight, if he has a play in either of those two ball games, but also, of course, the series, which now we have established series prices for the two sevens as well after last night.
1:14
Bro, he hit a ridiculous player prop bet. Uh, remi- remind me once we get to the Warriors game. Is this the Zach Edey thing? Yeah. The rebounds? 17 plus rebounds he bet. [laughs] Yeah.
1:25
It was- I don't even know what odds he had... it was at 14, w- 'cause, uh, 'cause Brian Musburger was tracking this as well. I happened to be with Brian Musburger last night at Circa.
1:33
He was tracking it as well, 'cause I think he was on it. I think he said it was plus 180. Oh, wow. Okay. But it was, it was 14 with five minutes left in the game, and then Zede- Edey just had tremendous...
1:44
Yeah, he soared past it. Uh, Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke, Raheem Palmer from The Ringer today, baby. Let's go. Talking NBA with Raheem. And our own Mike Somich.
1:54
Uh, we don't get to talk to Mike very often, but Mike's got thoughts on multiple sports, maybe even some hockey thoughts- Yeah... as the, uh, the NHL playoffs begin this weekend. I love what the NHL does.
2:03
They finish the regular season tomorrow, and they barely blink, and the playoffs are underway. You know what? I was thinking about this yesterday. I actually kind of like the NBA takes this, like, week.
2:14
L- it allows you to kind of reset. I think for, for the new pe- for the new NBA pe- uh, audience- Yes... it allows them to, like- And there is a new NBA audience...
2:21
yeah, come out of the Masters, get into the play-in games, and then ramp up to the playoffs. For us who bet it all the time, it just gives us a little bit of a break to reset and evaluate these series and everything.
2:31
But your hockey doesn't mess around. [laughs] They're like, "Regular season's over. We're starting two days later." I love that. Um, and then, uh, yeah, so the, we are, we are overbooked with guests.
2:40
Uh, Kelly Bidlin, violation, 15 yards, overbooking of guests. Okay. No, I love that. I love it, actually, 'cause these are tons of great guests today. Uh, let's start with the play-in games last night, the seven-eights.
2:49
Both favorites win. Both favorites do not cover. Warriors do not cover, uh, the spread. They only end up winning by five. We'll start with game one, where it went under, by the way.
3:01
Well, first game went under, second game went over, but the Magic get it done against the Atlanta Hawks. Um, and the Magic do it behind Cole Anthony's fine performance.
3:12
And, and the funniest part of that game last night, by the way, the Magic end up winning this by 25. They were up 22, the Hawks got it within three, and then the Magic pulled away to, to win by 25.
3:24
So it was one of those kinds of NBA games, and Trae Young handled it very well at the end of the game with, uh, two consecutive technical fouls where he acted like a seven-year-old.
3:31
Yeah, yeah, it's a perfect description. It was great. Perfect description. He- No, my ball. He threw the ball at one ref and then he kept it away from the other. I'm leaving. [laughs] That's right.
3:41
I'll see you on Friday. Cole Anthony and Anthony Black off the bench combined for 42 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds on 66% shooting. Th- th- that's pretty good. Yeah.
3:51
The most comical part of this, the play-by-play guy, Brian, uh, Brian Anderson, when Cole Anthony, Cole Anthony had a particularly awesome stretch during the third quarter- Mm-hmm...
3:58
of this as they were building the lead back up.
4:00
And, uh, as they were going to commercial break as the Hawks, or they had to call time out on one of these Cole Anthony flurries, and I think it was, it ended with a beautiful pass to W- to Wendell Carter for a jam.
4:09
And, uh, Brian Anderson into break goes, [laughs] he goes, "Cole Anthony has arrived." And then there's this pregnant pause, and he goes, "In the play-in tournament." [laughs] I just, out loud, I'm laughing.
4:21
I'm like, he had to catch himself. Uh, so the Magic advance, and the Magic take on the Boston Celtics in a best of seven 7-2 series in the East, where the Celtics are huge prohibitive, uh, series favorites.
4:32
And I guess I'll, I'll wrap this one on quickly, up quickly by just asking you, uh, season series, Magic actually beat the Celtics two out of three.
4:40
But in the two games that the Magic won, there was no Tatum in the first, and there was no Tatum, Brown, or Holiday in the second. Yeah. And the Celtics beat them by 27 in the game that they did have those guys.
4:53
Uh, minus 6,000 on the Celtics, 16 to 1 on the comeback for the Magic. Would, is there any bet here? Would you bet the series total over ga- over, over five and a half games is plus 320?
5:05
So this is either, what the market is saying is sweep or gentleman's sweep. Yeah. I, I, I think it's most likely Boston 4-1. You know what? I'll go, I'll go more likely 4-2 than 4-0, though. Oh, really? How about that?
5:17
I'll go, I'll go that. The Magic, we've seen this team and this core, uh, give this Boston team some trouble over the past couple years. And the bigger thing to me, Gil, is, uh, Jaylen Brown.
5:27
There, there's some questions about his knee and the health of the knee right now.
5:30
And, uh, it, it, you know, early in the playoffs with a team that's expected to make a deep run, right, you can be cautious with things like that. So even if he's not all that injured, maybe they limit minutes.
5:42
Maybe there's, uh, you know, a game missed or two from Jaylen Brown. Uh, just something to monitor. I wouldn't be rushing to, rushing to bet Boston 4-0, like they're gonna sweep the Magic absolutely no problem.
5:53
Um, I think last night was a good example of what you can see out of this Orlando team. They're gonna play tough on defense.
5:58
They, they're the best team in the league and have been for about the past two seasons of limiting three-point opportunities and limiting three-point success, and we know that's what Boston likes to do and how they win games.
6:09
So- I wouldn't surprise me at all if, if Magic gave him trouble for a game or two, but that, I think realistically that's probably all we're talking.
6:17
Um, I was surprised to see the opening game one line at 13 and a half- Wow... and then it actually got bet up. Yeah. It's like 14 and a half now. Over two touchdowns.
6:26
Celtics, by the way, to win in six, just to fo- follow up your, uh, little, uh, talk there. Six to one. Yeah. Celtics to win in six. And then there's the dub shell.
6:34
The Golden State Warriors, uh, win the seven, eight game out west. Uh, they beat the Grizzlies, but they only beat 'em by five. Spread was seven in the end, six and a half I think is where it closed.
6:44
Um, Golden State led this by 20 with just under seven minutes left in the second quarter, by 12 at the half, by three after three quarters.
6:54
They actually trailed by a bucket and then by one point early in the fourth, and they really only felt good about things when Steph hit a dagger three with just under a minute left where he faked out Scottie Pippen Jr.
7:06
twice with the splash to put the Warriors up six. By the way, if that's Scottie Pippen Sr., that shot is blocked twice. [laughs] Yes. Um, just to, just to make a generational call there.
7:16
[laughs] But anyway, the Warriors goes- Be, be like your dad. Be better. [laughs] Yeah, be better. Be, be legendary.
7:21
Um, Memphis though did-- It wasn't over though, 'cause Memphis did get a chance to tie the game, uh, getting the ball back down three points with 5.1 seconds left. Was it 5.4 or 5.1?
7:31
Uh, 5.1 here left in the game, and a five-second violation called. Uh, Santi Aldama was, uh, inbounding the ball for Memphis. Uh, it didn't feel like a five se- I, I don't know.
7:44
That whole end of that game, by the way, they call it the five-second violation, that was Katy bar the door, and the Warriors win it.
7:49
What a, what a strange f- this was-- W- whatever the opposite of a classic was- Yeah... is what this was down the stretch of this game because- Refs had to get involved... refs were completely involved.
8:01
And even if the Warriors got a bunch of calls during the body of the game, the, the final stretch of this game, Draymond was a really weak sixth foul to foul him out.
8:13
Podziemski totally blocked that shot late on the, which is a beautiful block. Mm-hmm. And then Looney gets bizarrely called for a foul when Moody corralled that rebound and he's on the ground.
8:24
We couldn't even tell watching on the big screen without the audio, like, "What, what are they calling?" Um, and then conversely, that five-second violation [laughs] of the Grizzlies felt to me more like a, uh...
8:35
How can I put this? A 4.6-second violation. And even, it should be noted that even, you know, the NBA is famous for, "Well, you don't make that call at that point of the game." Yeah.
8:44
[laughs] The fact that they even made that call is amazing to me. No, I'm with you. It, it is, it is wild, uh, whether it's NBA or college, right?
8:51
Whenever you get the, the very loose or tight five-second call, it's, it-- Five seconds should always just be five seconds.
8:57
It should never feel like four, and it should never feel like seven, Gil, but it happens all the time it feels like. Yeah. It, it, it felt quick.
9:03
But anyway, the Warriors win, and so the Warriors now take on the Houston Rockets in a seven-two that has been really anticip- I, I, I wanna say this. Has there ever been a series where
9:15
you feel like the Warriors, this is the team the Warriors wanted to be matched up against, and maybe the Rockets actually wanted to be matched up against the Warriors also?
9:25
Because there's a case to be made on either side. And the answer to the question of where did this series price end up landing is dubs minus 200. Rockets, the two seed, plus 165 as the dog.
9:39
Uh, let me just say this, for what it's worth, season series, Warriors won the season series three games to two. Uh, they won in November.
9:47
They didn't have, certainly didn't have Butler then, and they didn't have Curry in that game. And the, uh, the Warriors won, you know, 127-121 at Houston. Hield had 27, Kuming had 23.
9:59
Then in December, the Warriors won again. They didn't have Curry or Green, let alone not having Butler then. They won by six. Uh, December at Houston, this was an NBA Cup game.
10:09
Remember there was weird officiating at the end of that game, and Steve Kerr got all angry. Mm-hmm. And Houston ended up winning by a point. Uh, Warriors won again at Houston. Curry and Butler now together in February.
10:20
They won at Houston by seven.
10:22
And then this past week, right, so the Warriors up in the season series three to one, but this last game where the Warriors were soaring, uh, Houston stopped them in their tracks with a 10-point win at Houston, where they held Curry to three points in that game.
10:37
I think it was one of 10 shooting, if I'm not mistaken, from the field. Do you agree with this line? Minus 200. No. This is higher than I imagined it would be. It is high.
10:46
I, I, I think the most shocking thing to me about the, uh, about this opening, Gil, was that we talked to a lot of s- or, and I t- asked a lot of smart NBA people that w- And we were p- pretty much all in the same range of, like, minus 140 to minus 170.
11:02
Like, everybody I asked and I respect were in that range. And I saw openers last night.
11:06
There were-- I believe there was an offshore that opened at minus 400 on the Warriors, and then FanDuel was, like, plus 105 on the Rockets, as low as that. Wait, there was an offshore that opened what?
11:16
Minus 400 on the Warriors. What offshore was that? I don't know. I didn't catch, I didn't catch who it was. That's, that was quite offshore. Y- yeah, exactly.
11:22
So I, I was surprised at the wide range o- o- of openers here.
11:26
Um, man, it's an awesome opportunity for, for the Houston Rockets, who are s- a two seed seemingly playing with house money against the Golden State Warriors. Yeah. It is the Warriors, though.
11:36
I'm not running a bet either side, though. This is- No, it's, it's a little higher than I, and I'm a Warriors guy. It's h- higher than I would have imagined. Yeah.
11:42
Uh, we will of course revisit this m- many times on the show today with our guests, beginning with Will Hill next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
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12:03
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12:10
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12:19
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12:32
Um, we went through a whole bunch of tweets last time this guy was on, and we kinda gave him short shrift. And by we, I mean me. So I'm not gonna do that again. Ladies and gentlemen, a full...
12:40
fledged segment with our buddy Will Hill, the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, and of course, the star of the Megapod and, uh, Chris Felica's podcast empire over there at Fox Sports.
12:49
He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @NotThee, that's with two Es, Will Hill. Where you coming to us from today, Will? Cary, North Carolina, Gilly. Beautiful down here.
13:02
Uh, great weather. Had to come here for a, a wedding and just turned it into a little, little mini vacation. We came here a few years ago, too.
13:08
Uh, my wife's side of the family has some, uh, uh, wife's side of the family has some family down here, so, uh, nice. Nice to get away.
13:14
K- it's ki- I guess it's really cold and, uh, like snowy back in Connecticut- That's good... so it's gonna be sort of warm when we get back as, uh, people get the, uh, appreciate getting the weather report here.
13:22
But yeah, good to, uh, good to get away for a few days, but was able to bring all the equipment, still able to bang out some work, so excited. Will's down there trying to get some, uh, Lorazepam.
13:31
He heard there was some down there- [laughs]... after watching White Lotus, so that's why he's there. Uh, okay.
13:35
You have, we don't know you necessarily as an NBA guy first, but we do know that you bet everything, and you are all in on, on a lot of NBA bets here.
13:43
Walk us through some of these, 'cause I know you have some exact series prices as well that you're looking at. I'll start with Warriors-Rockets. Like you guys, I was surprised.
13:53
I was really surprised this opened minus $2.00 or is minus $2.00. I was thinking Warriors maybe a slight favorite, maybe $1.30, $1.40, maybe that's a little high. Uh, to see minus 200 is, is surprising.
14:03
Now, part of this, I have some Warriors futures. Part of this is a mini hedge. I like the Rockets plus a game and a half. I just worry from a Warriors standpoint
14:12
that the Rockets have a edge in athleticism, physicality, size, offensive rebounding, and how much can Curry and Butler, Draymond, how much can the big three do over the course of a long series and not get worn down and not get beat up?
14:28
You know, if, if there was ever a, a prop on over/under for ejections in a series, I would look towards an over here.
14:34
I could see Draymond get thrown out of one of these games, 'cause Houston is a very physical, very feisty team. Their coach is feisty. Their coach was talking trash to Kerr and Curry, telling them, "Hey, stop whining."
14:45
Uh, so this could get ugly.
14:46
Th- this is, uh, you know, this has been a great rivalry with diff- different iterations of at least the Rockets, which speaks to the Curry and the Warriors, their, their, their longevity, their ability to, you know, withstand the test of time here.
14:58
Uh, I do think ultimately the Warriors win just because they do have Curry, they do have the experience. I'm gonna go with the rare road team wins game seven, but I, I think this is a tough series.
15:09
I think what helps Golden State, too, is they play on, what, Sunday, then Wednesday, then Saturday, so there's a little bit of a break here where Golden State could, could use a break. It's an older team.
15:19
They've looked a little gassed down the stretch. So I think taking the Rockets plus one and a half is a nice hedge, and I also, uh, think it's the right side. So I think we're looking at a long series here.
15:29
Rockets plus one and a half, and you, you did say you are taking the rare Warriors to win on the road in seven. That would be around plus 550. That's the price- Yeah... uh, we're showing at DraftKings.
15:40
I, I mean, I have the Warriors, I, I have a nice number on the future and it's funny how you fall into these sometimes just for, for the wrong reasons.
15:46
I [laughs] thought they were gonna get Durant, and from all accounts the Warriors agreed to it, the Suns agreed to it, and Durant just squashed it.
15:52
So I have a nice number on the Warriors, so I don't know if I'll double down and add them to winning the series, but I, I will take the Rockets plus a game and a half, and, uh, I, I do think this has a ch- a, a good chance here to go seven.
16:02
And I, like, life on the line, I would still pick the Warriors to, uh, to get through. Uh, I did play Boston-Orlando game one. I took the Magic under team total 94 and a half.
16:11
I'm curious what Kelly thinks, 'cause Kelly, I had you on a week or so ago on my podcast and you said you were looking forward to this series, which I understand. Orlando's giving them fits.
16:19
I just don't know if they can score. Yeah. Outside of Paolo, I mean, Boston just doesn't have anybody they have to double. They can just say, "You know what, Paolo, shoot the ball 30, 40 times. Do whatever you want.
16:27
W- we're not gonna help off anybody." I know Orlando shot the ball last night and got some outlier performance fr- from some of their shooters, but this is an awful shooting team. They're gonna be on the road.
16:37
So I played Orlando team total under 94 and a half game one. It's only up at DraftKings now, so you don't have the ability to shop, but I didn't wanna
16:45
lo- not lock myself into something and then it moves and opens up, you know, 92 and a half, 93 and a half o- other places and you missed the 94 and a half. So I did play the team total under 94 and a half.
16:54
What are you talking about? Brian Anderson proclaimed that Cole Anthony arrived in the play-in game. [laughs] I love that part.
17:00
Um, the KD thing, by the way, just to go back to that for a second, you think if you gave him truth serum right now he'd be like, "Man, I wish I went to the Dubs. I wish I went there"? I don't know what he thinks. Yeah.
17:10
I, I mean, he said- It's probably true... he, he was such a likable guy early in his career. His, his approval rating was through the charts. There was nobody who disliked him.
17:17
You know, you remember he was living with his mom and playing video games, and he wasn't one of these guys that w- was, uh, involved with drama.
17:24
He just played basketball, put up his 30 points, and we all, everybody loved him, and his career just really got strange. He got strange. He just, he, he, he always seems unhappy where he, wherever he goes.
17:36
It's like the, uh, the drama, the unhappiness follows him around, whether it's the Warriors where he was winning and still unhappy. He left OKC, wasn't happy with the Nets, not happy now.
17:45
So I, I, I don't know what he's thinking. Yeah. It's probably the rec- probably the right answer. He's an, he's an odd bird.
17:50
You had an exact, uh, if I'm not mistaken, and I, I think I heard this, in the Pistons series, don't you have an exact, uh, bet as well in that?
17:58
I took Pistons plus 330, and I think for the most part, like I just said, I think the Warriors maybe can break this with their experience and winning on the road, but for the most part, if you're gonna pick the lower seed to win, they're usually gonna do it in six, uh, exactly.
18:10
Because, like, if you're gonna upset the Knicks, barring an injury or whatever, you're not gonna win in four. You're not gonna sweep them. You're probably not gonna win in five.
18:16
It would be hard to win a game seven in Madison Square Garden. The sweet spot is winning six, and winning six pays nine to one at DraftKings, plus 850 other places.
18:25
I just think they've got to steal one early, hold serve at home, and put yourself in a position where you can close it out in six at home, and I think they're live here.
18:33
They went three and one against them in the regular season. I know it's dicey trying to take what happened in the regular season and apply it to the postseason. I get that. But I think the Knicks are really good.
18:42
They've got a legitimate star in Cunningham. They're gonna have a really good home court advantage. I think the Knicks are, are certainly flawed defensively. So you know what?
18:50
Steal one early, hold serve, and I- I, I would say if you like the Pistons, maybe put half your bet on the plus 330 and, and part of your bet on the nine to one, because if they're gonna win, it's very likely that they're gonna win it in six.
19:01
I like that, uh, strategery there. Anything else NBA? I like the home teams tonight.
19:07
I, I think the Heat are getting benefit of the doubt just based on the uniform, the, the, the past history of, uh, it's Heat culture, it's Spoelstra. This is not the same team.
19:16
I mean, they got Adebayo, but they, they don't have much else. Uh, so I, I think the Bulls win that game tonight, especially at home. So I like the Bulls. I know all of these totals come down.
19:25
I, I like the unders early, but when they start to move four or five points, it's hard to still play the unders. Um, and, and I like t- I, I like the Kings too. I mean, what...
19:33
The Mavericks, what is their life like day-to-day, where everywhere they go, they get booed. Everywhere they go- [laughs]... like social media is like, "How did you trade Luka? We hate the GM. We hate everybody."
19:42
Their fans are miserable. That's gotta be a miserably, miserable experience to be the Dallas Mavericks. Couldn't you sense there being a little like one, two, three Cancun with them tonight and just say, "You know what?
19:51
This has been a disaster of a season. Let's just get the hell out of here." If they get down 10 early, it's, it, it's exit stage left. So I think the Kings roll it home here tonight.
19:58
I, I, I, I question what kind of effort we're getting here from Dallas and what has been just a disaster. It must be a disaster day-to-day these last couple months.
20:06
And you remind us with one, two, three Cancun, it's the last playoffs with the TNT crew inside the NBA, man. It's gonna be sad. It's gonna be sad this, uh, this postseason. Um, okay. But they're staying, right?
20:17
They're going to ESPN, I thought. Is, is that a done deal? I thought so. I don't know. I don't think all of them. Yeah, I don't think all of them are going.
20:25
Yeah, I, I don't think it's, uh, it's necessarily intact, but we shall see. Uh, time will tell.
20:30
Um, where are you, real quick, on the NFL draft and what has been a very weird sort of NFL draft run-up in terms of what has been available, what you like being really all that sexy 'cause you have to lay a lot of juice.
20:42
You have-- Do you have any bets thus far? I can't remember the last time I've had this few bets this late in the process, which I'm okay with.
20:50
I mean, you start getting in this situation where you're chasing information and you, you put yourself in a position where you, you...
20:56
It, it's hard to bet every piece of news, so it's kind of been a blessing in disguise that not, not much has been offered.
21:00
The one thing I did add this week, uh, Raiders to draft a defensive lineman with their first pick at 10 to one, just because I, I heard the bear. I had Chris Fleek on with you, you know, last week or the week before.
21:11
He's talked about he doesn't buy the idea that Gentry is gonna be their pick, and he's odds-on to be the Raiders pick, just with how deep the running back class is, how much stuff the Raiders need.
21:20
So if you don't think that Gentry's the pick, I just think that there's a chance they go best available player a- and they get a defensive lineman or a linebacker or something like that. Uh, y- those pay good prices.
21:32
Defensive line pays 10 to one. I think linebacker play- pays, uh, seven to one, like you said.
21:36
There's hasn't been much available, uh, so it, it's hard to sit here and, you know, get into stuff and try to read the tea leaves and stuff when there's not much you can really bet.
21:44
But there's starting to be which team could draft what position, over-unders. A little more has started to pop up offshore, things like that, but, uh, it's just, it's not been the same.
21:54
I don't, I don't know if it'll ever be the same. The books just don't have the appetite- Yeah... to book this stuff. They lose on it. They just... That's how they operate. They take their ball and they go home.
22:00
So I, I don't know. I, I feel like the, uh, the, the draft betting, the toothpaste is out of the tube. I don't know if it's ever gonna be as good as it was. Uh, real quick before you go, any baseball today yet?
22:11
Uh, Blue Jays, Braves under four in the first fr- uh, uh, first five here. Strider is back. He looked great in his rehab outings going against Bass, who's been pretty good. So under four in the first five.
22:21
It's like minus 118, minus 120. You gotta pay a little juice, but I think we get a low-scoring start here, Blue Jays and Braves. Will Hill, everybody. The podcast is called Shoulda Bet More. Um, man is great.
22:32
Man is great at what he does. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it as always. All right, see you guys. Thanks. Will Hill from North Carolina, and not the Will Hill. JVT's got his NBA thoughts. We will get them in volume next.
22:45
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23:39
It's my little buddy Kelly Bidleman, everybody, alongside here on the Numbers Game.
23:42
Circus Sports, uh, Circus Resort Casino, I should say, with the beautiful Circus Sportsbook behind us, and of course Stadium Swim for those who have not, uh, experienced Stadium Swim outside.
23:53
Just a great way to watch and bet on sports.
23:56
Uh, this gentleman is not only the co-host of Ready, Set, Bet, but he, uh, he does a, a horse racing show each and every week that we want to, uh, highlight here, and he has bets in multiple sports.
24:05
It's the great Mike Somich, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, about to regale us with Som-O-Bombs. How you doing, man? I'm doing great, Gill. I'm doing great. This is a phenomenal time of the year.
24:16
We've got the Kentucky Derby headed to- toward the post here in a couple weeks. We've got NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs. This is one of my favorite times every single year.
24:23
I feel like it's underrated because it's not March Madness and there's no NFL, but there is still just a plethora of sports to be able to fire at. Completely agree.
24:30
Beginning of N- NBA and NHL playoffs, draft, it's awesome. Um, tennis on clay, let's not forget. [laughs] I just got destroyed this morning. How can we forget that?
24:39
Um, okay, let me, let me just say this out, off the bat. Let's start with the horse racing. When is the horse racing show for everybody?
24:45
Yeah, so VSiN at the Track, Road to the Kentucky Derby every Friday at 2:15 Eastern, 11:15 Pacific. We're live over on the YouTube page @VSINLive. Make sure you subscribe, hit the notifications.
24:55
You can be there every time that we go live. You can talk in the chat to us, so we'll answer questions during the breaks and during the live show as well.
25:02
So just a great time talking horses over there and getting ready for the, uh, first Saturday in May. Who's your guest this week? Uh, we're not sure this week, but, uh, your boy Chris Felica- Yeah...
25:11
coming on next week for us. Yeah. So we're gonna have Felica on the show as well, get his opinion.
25:15
Uh, we're, we're trying to actually get Griffin Johnson, who is a huge YouTuber and, uh, and a, a big TikToker as well, over three million followers on each, and he actually owns one of the Derby horses this year, Sandman, who's one of your top contenders.
25:26
Okay, so let's d- let's do five sports, and let's start with, uh, Derby thoughts from you. Journalism's gonna be tough. Right now, four to one, he's your favorite.
25:34
I, I think that he should be closer to five to two, three to one, so if you do wanna bet him, I suggest getting a future ticket in now. But it's gonna be a really interesting run for the roses, specifically pace-wise.
25:43
We've got a couple Bafferts and Citizen Bowling, wa- Rodriguez that want the front, and then East Avenue able to qualify through the Bluegrass, his final opportunity to do so. Another horse that injects pace.
25:53
We've already seen one of the international horses bow out, and that's where a lot of the pace has come from the last couple years. So going to be very interesting what type of pace we get. I do think it is...
26:02
If it's not journalism, I think this is absolutely wide open. I like Tappan Street.
26:06
I like a horse named Sovereignty, who has an amazing turn of foot, but he's gonna come from way back in the pack, so he'll have to deal with a lot of traffic.
26:12
And I think Grande for Todd Pletcher and Repole, who had the favorite last year and the favorite from Forte the year before, before he had to scratch, is a interesting long shot as well after finishing second up in the Wood.
26:22
As soon as you said journalism is tough, I, I wonder how many people in the audience thought the same. I was like, "Yeah, in this day and age, journalism is..." [laughs] "Oh, it's a horse. Oh, I s-" Yeah. Um, uh, NBA.
26:32
You too, uh, have a thought on the Clippers series, sir. Me too. I mean, I, I, I, I was on Vsan Live yesterday over on, uh, at, uh, Vsan Live with Patrick Meyer and Dustin Sweetelson, and I love this Clippers team.
26:45
I can't help it. I don't trust them to, like, bet a 30 to one future to win the title.
26:49
I don't trust them to bet the West, 'cause at some point, this house of cards does fall down with Kawhi Leonard trying to be healthy for two straight months and what we've seen from James Harden in the playoffs.
26:57
But this first round matchup to me is just a, a matchup made in heaven for the Clippers. I played them plus 145. I know Raheem got a better number than me. I missed the really open on it. Uh, it's at minus 110 now.
27:08
I have this series as Clippers minus 135 as the fair number, so I'm still betting the Clippers at minus 110 here, and I even went a little overboard. I, I played two and a half games with the Clippers.
27:17
So Clippers to win in four or five, that's a plus 400. This, for me, matchup-wise, this is the dream matchup here for the Clippers.
27:23
Uh, you've get a, got a Denver team that is just in flux right now with everything that's happening inside the organization. I'm not sure how they're going to be able to stop the Clippers' offense as well.
27:33
Zubac has been phenomenal inside. Harden has pretty much the perfect setup for Harden. You've got the big man who can catch lobs.
27:39
You've got multiple three-point shooters on the outside, and then you've got Kawhi Leonard, who's playing like Kawhi Leonard from 2019 right now. Now, will it last four rounds?
27:47
I doubt it, but I, I'm willing to bet them here in the first round at the, the minus 110 price, as well as laying two and a half games. All right. To Major League Baseball, you have a total today.
27:55
[laughs] Yeah, let's go to, uh, a band box down there in, uh, in Tampa Bay. We've got the Rays taking on, uh, the Red Sox, and, and Sean Newman on the hill for the Red Sox, one of my favorite pitchers to be able to fade.
28:06
I thought this total should be sitting at nine and a half or 10. Right now, you can get nine minus 115 on the over.
28:12
Uh, so I'm gonna take the over here with the Red Sox and Rays, two teams that, that have been able to hit the baseball recently. So I expect some runs down there in Tampa today. All right. NFL draft, eight days away.
28:21
I know you love the draft as much as anybody. Um, this has been, you know, it's been janky. I think that's the technical term in terms of what's been available, what you, what is, what is very appealing with bets.
28:31
But you have found a trio of bets that you like, um, and the, and the first couple have to do with teams, specific teams' first picks. What do you have here? Yeah, this whole draft is janky, not just how it's come up.
28:43
I, I think this is the worst draft we've seen from a talent perspective in the last decade. I, I just, I- There's one player in my mind that's actually a marquee blue chip player. That's Abdul Carter.
28:51
After that, kinda feels like a crap shoot here, but it does set up well for a couple teams to be able to address needs. The first one, the Dallas Cowboys sitting at 12. Uh, wide receiver is plus 110 for their first pick.
29:02
They need offensive weapons, and when you look at the board, Jeanty probably goes six to the Raiders. Warren probably goes 10 to the Bears. That leaves T- uh, Tet McMillen sitting there at the 12 spot.
29:12
I don't see him going any higher than that. You've s- you know, uh, war room's really kind of going back and forth on whether or not he is that number one wide receiver.
29:19
If he's there at 12, I think the Cowboys kinda have to take him, and I believe he is going to be sitting there, so I'm hel- willing to take the plus 110 price there on the Cowboys to take a wide receiver.
29:28
And then I kinda like a flyer a little bit later in the draft. You guys talked about running backs and how high will Jeanty go and, you know, is there going to be this resurgence in the, in the, a couple segments ago.
29:37
Like, to me, Washington Commanders are sitting in a perfect position to take a running back. A running back is a finishing piece.
29:43
That's the key to when you really wanna bring that running back in, because you don't get eight, nine years of production.
29:49
You're looking for that three, four, five-year window where a running back is very effective, and it's like a luxury pick. You don't need to address a bunch of other needs, but it can really help out your offense.
29:58
To me, that's describing this Commanders team to a T. They need to add a running back. They need to get younger at that position.
30:04
You've got the wide receiver weapons, you've got the quarterback, and you have a shot at having the number two running back sitting there on the board when they come up to draft.
30:12
And Hamilton, I think he makes a ton of sense for this team. We've heard both of the Ohio State running backs talked about with this Redskins org- or, uh, sorry, with this Commanders organization as well.
30:21
[laughs] I think Commanders taking a running back first pick at 10 to one is a, a, quite a bit of value because I do see it as one of those needs that they can fill to really complete this team.
30:30
It's interesting, uh, because they are, you know, I, I don't know what the, what the, uh, Commodores brass, uh, thinks about the, you know, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, I guess Chris Rodriguez, Jeremy McNichols.
30:41
So they've got backs that they like. I wonder if they would actually draft a running back in the first round. It's an interesting thought. And then you had a, a player in terms of his draft position that you like.
30:50
Yeah, Calvin Banks Jr. right now the third, uh, offensive line, offensive tackle really, on the board in a lot of places. But we've seen Membu drop and Banks go up over the last two weeks.
31:00
I think we're gonna continue to see that move. We've seen a scout, scouting report come out recently which has Banks as the number two offensive lineman on the board versus Membu.
31:09
I think that 13 and a half is way too high right now for Calvin Banks Jr. He's minus 150 to the under. I think there's still quite a bit of value in that.
31:16
If you look at the draft board, teams between seven and 13 need offensive line help, and I wouldn't be shocked if Banks ends up being the second offensive lineman off the board, not the third one.
31:25
You can get second offensive lineman on Banks at plus 600, but I, I like, I love the under here sitting at 13 and a half.
31:31
I think he's off the board, if not early in that, that seventh pick, I think he ends up going nine or 11. Okay.
31:37
The NHL playoffs, a special numbers game investigation reveals the NHL playoffs begin this Saturday, the Stanley Cup playoffs. Um, and there are a couple, there are a few series established already.
31:49
Uh, namely one of them, the Vegas Golden Knights, our own Vegas Golden Knights here in Las Vegas, um, taking on the Minnesota Wild, I believe it is, in a first round series? You are correct.
31:59
That's some hard-hitting investigative journalism there, Gil. Nailed it. Thank you. Great work. Thank you. You're just crushing it.
32:03
[laughs] Uh, yeah, we got the Golden Knights taking on the Wild, and to me this is just a, a mismatch. I think the Golden Knights, one of the two best teams in the West.
32:10
The Wild, while they had started to play a little bit better down the stretch, they've still had issues scoring the puck, and, and Vegas at home is just an absolute bear.
32:17
I think it's gonna be very difficult for the Wild to be able to take a game in Vegas. Uh, right now the Wild have a pretty-- or I'm sorry, the Knights, a pretty heavy favorite for the series sitting at minus 190.
32:26
I think this is over in four, five, or six here, so I'm happy to lay the one and a half with the Golden Knights. You can get them minus one and a half games at the plus 110 price.
32:34
So we'll, we'll lay the game and a half with the Knights in this series. And the Hurricanes and the Devils are established in the East as one of the series. What did you play there? Very similar handicap here.
32:43
Uh, again, the Hurricanes a heavy favorite in the series. I think they should be. I think they have a chance at, at sweeping their home games. That means that it's three wins in five games.
32:50
I expect they're able to take one from a younger Devils team here as well. Defensively, they are dominant. Offense is going to be the issue with this Hurricanes team, but the Devils not great on the defensive end.
33:00
I think they have enough offense to get this done, make this a quick series as well. So we'll go Hurricanes minus the game and a half, minus 115 in the spot.
33:07
Man, you got a lot of picks to log for the, uh, G Bank Best Bets column. [laughs] I- Um- Even Kelly's busy... coming to you after this segment. Who, who's in, who's in the Stanley Cup final, Mike? Ooh, good question.
33:17
Uh, I'm gonna go with the Tampa Bay Lightning versus the Gold- the Vegas Golden Knights. Tampa Bay Vegas. Not mention the Washington Capitals. Omitted from that sentence the Washington Capitals. Thank you, Mike.
33:29
Yes, sir. Appreciate it, man. Have a good one, guys. Five sports deep with Michael Salmiche, everybody.
33:34
Uh, ready, set, bet, and of course, uh, now doing a weekly horse racing show where he was able to book Christopher Feliken. Wow. Tough get. That's a tough get right there. One of the toughest gets there is.
33:45
Uh, we'll recap all the bets, and there's a bevy of them, next right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music]
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