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Apr 18, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 18, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 18, 2024
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44:19
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's all proudly brought to you by DraftKings.
0:17
Here from Bar Canada at the D, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midland. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's up? How you doing, man? Doing well. How you doing? Well,
0:29
had a tennis match this morning where, uh, the lady we were backing, Varvara Gracheva, I know you're very familiar with her work. Oh, yeah. Me and Varvara go way back.
0:38
Plus 140 dog, she's up six four in the third set tiebreaker, and she yacks it. Ugh. So yeah, I'm thrilled. I mean, I'm very happy right now. Oh, very happy. How'd your big match go yesterday? Which was the big match?
0:49
The one you played in. Oh, oh, with Vez? Yeah. Oh, what a... Talk about match point staved off. [laughs] It was beautiful.
0:57
These are the two or three months in, uh, in Vegas where the weather is spectacular, so just great to be outside. Oh, I hate the... I, I, I, in the fall we get the nice decline, though.
1:06
In, in the spring here, like I, I was talking with Randy, Randy, the great valet guy outside that- Oh, he's the greatest... we talk to every day. Yeah. Uh, when I showed up yesterday morning, it was 58 degrees.
1:15
When I left, it was 82. It was beautiful. Beautiful outside. And it'll, you know, two months from now we'll be in hell, but right now it's wonderful. Uh, okay, we'll get into a whole bunch of stuff today.
1:26
Uh, Crack will join us, not in studio, but he is on the East Coast. He's at the RBC Heritage. Uh, we were promised a shot in front of a lighthouse. We will get that today- [laughs]... from Bill Krackomberger, unscripted.
1:36
We will talk with him, uh, for a couple segments. Uh, Joe Sheehan on, uh, Joe Sheehan on baseball. Bad day for the Guardians yesterday. Oh, boy.
1:46
Braves come back from behind, Yankees come back dramatically from behind, and the Guardians got Tanner Houck, which we have to get into.
1:53
Uh, Zach Cohen on his, uh, tennis and NBA thoughts, and Luke Swain, I saved the best for last. Luke Swain will join us. Many of you are familiar with, uh, Luke Swain as Vegas Refund on Twitter.
2:06
Uh, if you go back, and we did, and look at his NFL draft performances and his NBA draft performances, we'll throw those in as well, it's nothing but plus, plus money, and dramatically so, with the exception, just like us, of last year's NFL draft.
2:22
Uh, has it caused him to ratchet it back this year? Uh, I don't know if it has or not. We will get all of his thoughts on the upcoming NFL draft one week from tonight. How about that?
2:33
So looking forward to talking to, uh, to Luke about that. By the way, before we get to the NBA, did you hear about what the, uh, the Commodores did? You hear about what the Commodes did?
2:42
They let- yesterday was the last day to invite draftees into your, uh, into your spot. And instead of them, you know, just doing it individually, like we wanna really spend time with Jayden Daniels, right?
2:55
They invited four, so not Caleb Williams, not Bo Nix- Right... but the other four guys, Drake May, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix, and JJ McCarthy, all at the same time to see how they would like interact with each other.
3:12
Now, I'm sure, I'm, I shouldn't say I'm sure, I'm hoping they already know who they're gonna draft, but like what did that accomplish?
3:17
They were getting crushed by pe- by even, even Jayden Daniels', most notably Jayden Daniels' agent liked a couple very critical tweets about this, including one from Mike Florio from Pro Football Talk, and then one that was a little more colorful, let's say.
3:33
Oh, man. So there you go. We, we, we just hit day one in the life of Gil Alexander, where he brought up a comment or a like of a social media post as newsworthy. [laughs] Oh, man.
3:42
Well, look- Oh, well, but it's from his agent I know, I know. The, it w- Yeah, I know... it is a weird story because I, I mean, this was, it w- w- what it was a day or two ago at this point?
3:51
I've heard, I've heard m- mixed reactions from former NFL people. Like someone that, I, I, like I heard someone say that this is not that abnormal. Not for Adam Peters. He did the same thing in San Francisco. Okay, okay.
4:05
And then, and then I've heard from others kind of like, "Well, you don't do it this late in the process. Like what's going on?
4:10
Either you don't know, y- you, you have question marks of who you thought you were, were zeroing in on," and I, I kind of agree with that.
4:18
Well, what would have to happen for you to know who, think you know who you're going to draft, watch the interaction and be like, "Oh gosh, we cannot draft that guy"? [laughs] Like what would have to happen?
4:29
Would you just go crazy on the other three people? I mean, well, like, like, I, I mean- Well, we were, we were-... they do the simple like film study stuff with them sometimes, right?
4:37
Like, I mean, if you go over on some of the tests and questions, it might be a little concerning. I don't know.
4:43
But like, uh, but my, my point, I d- the, or the point I agree with is why, why now and not two weeks ago, three weeks ago, four weeks ago? I would, I would agree with all points. Why now? Why ever?
4:54
Would be my other point. Yeah. I, I just- So add it to the list- Yeah... of, uh, pick numbers that I'm not sure about anymore. I mean- [laughs]...
5:02
Jayden Daniels, I hope, didn't like pour his beverage over the other three guys, 'cause I just don't want him to eliminate himself. Anyway, that was an interesting thing.
5:08
We'll talk to Luke Swain, all NFL draft, a little later on. Uh, the NBA is, I mean, the only story here is injuries- Ugh... at this point. This is just unbelievable.
5:19
So two nights ago, Zion, at really, and we probably didn't make enough of this as much as we- Yeah... did talk about it, but really like at the height of that game, he jams it, 95-95 with 3:19 left.
5:31
The Sixers call a timeout six seconds later, but Zion goes straight to the, to the locker room because he pulled his hammy. Mm-hmm.
5:39
And he is out for the elimination game tomorrow night between the Kings and the Pelicans, uh, with the Kings one and a half point favorites now at New Orleans.
5:49
New Orleans without the great Zion Williamson, who scored 40 in that game before having to exit. Um- Against, uh, against the, uh, the, uh, I'm sorry, I'm already forgetting who they played, for God sakes. The Pelicans.
6:01
Lakers. The Lakers. Thank you. God. Good God. It's hard to, hard to remember the Lakers. Um- It's been a couple late nights of basketball... okay. So that's two night, that's two nights ago.
6:09
And then, you know, this on the heels, right, of Giannis having a calf strain a week ago. A week, actually nine days ago, uh, in their game against the Celtics, the Bucks game against the Celtics.
6:20
Giannis has already been ruled out for at least game one of the Bucks three, six series with the Indiana Pacers.
6:27
One of these series, one of three NBA post-season series now, playoff series, where, uh, the team that is favored in game one is not the actual series favorite.
6:36
So the Pacers are favored, uh, in game one of that g- uh, of that series by one and a half points at Milwaukee, whereas Milwaukee is still a tick of a favorite, a tick of a favorite in the series because we don't know how long Giannis is gonna be out for.
6:48
Uh, and then last night, in the seven-eight game between the Sixers, uh, and, uh, the Miami Heat at Philly, Heat, Jimmy Butler's doing Jimmy Butler things, playoff Jimmy Butler.
7:02
Uh, m- just stealing the ball, easy breakaway dunks. But, um, Kelly Oubre and him sort of tangle up. No fault of Oubre. It's just one of these basketball plays that happens.
7:14
And as we learn later, Butler ha- gets an MCL injury. He's writhing on the court in pain. He decides to play through it. Plays the rest of the game. Looked really affected in the second half, though.
7:26
Uh, bottom line, the Sixers come back to win that game 105 to 104. A little bit of drama at the end, but not really.
7:33
Uh, Sixers won it 105-104 in a game where Joel Embiid, who remember missed eight weeks of the regular season with a left knee meniscus issue, he, I don't know if he tweaked it the second to last day of the regular season.
7:47
Whatever happened, he had to miss, or they decided for precautionary measures that they were gonna take him out of the last regular season game.
7:52
So he sat there, and he shows up yesterday, and he's, he's messing with his knee first in pre-game warmups. You're like, "Is that, you know, gamesmanship? What is that? Or is he, is there really something going on?"
8:03
And then as you pointed out, Kelly, he also just looked tired playing in that game. It was bizarre. I, I, I, I thought it was bizarre. I, I mean, you, I knew he was, I mean, I know Friday he left the game, he tweeted.
8:15
And I, Sunday I thought it was really more precautionary because he had, he like, he had played, you know, 30-ish minutes or less since he returned, which you would expect. You're ramping a guy up.
8:25
But he had been extremely effective in those games. And it was, I mean, you're talking six minutes, seven minutes into that game last night, you're like, "Why does, why does Joel Embiid look so tired?
8:35
Like, he looks gassed." And then I don't know if you heard it, but Doris Burke even mentioned it on the broadcast that he got, he got gassed with warmups. Yeah.
8:43
He was out there in warmups for like seven minutes and got gassed. So I- She's like, "Embiid looks gashed." It was [laughs] I'm like, "What?" Um, so- It was bizarre... but here's the thing.
8:52
He ended up 23, 15, and 5, and he hit a huge three down the stretch. So and he had a big rebound and a put back. I mean, he made huge plays in the end. Uh, in the end now, the Sixers end up with the seven seed.
9:03
They will take on the New York Knicks. Again, another one of these series where the Sixers are two and a half point dogs in game one, but are a tick of a series favorite. We thought minus 140, that was my guess.
9:14
You said minus 130, I think. Yep. Me, you, and JVT. It ends up being shorter than that, minus 115 on the series price. Maybe because of the- Oh, I see...
9:23
question around Embiid, the, is worth those 15 cents, and I think that's true. I guess the point I'm getting to is, so we have a Kings-Pelicans elimination game coming up without Zion. Yep.
9:34
We got a Bulls-Heat game without Butler. Butler's gonna be out weeks- Yep... if the Heat continue. Um, we already have the Giannis issue.
9:44
Remember when I put out that w- that f- fictional prop where I was like, "Celtics five and a half losses Eastern Conference playoffs." [laughs] I still, I'm still on the over now.
9:52
[laughs] And now, and now it was, and Giannis, this was before Giannis' injury, before Butler's injury, and before Embiid has shown this strange, you know, sort of wobbly- Yeah...
10:03
literally na- nature of, of being in these games. That five and a half is what now? Four and a half? Oh, less, uh, probably less than that.
10:11
Well, I don't think you can make the line too much less, but, but it's definitely not five and a half anymore. Definitely not five. I'd, I mean- Yeah... I'd go three and a half probably. That's probably where I'd go.
10:20
I, I mean, they could, they could be cruising to the Eastern Conference finals. This is, uh, I, I mean, the Heat, it's a real shame. I mean, they were, I-
10:29
I- for as much as I've gotten on this team over the past couple years, there are, I mean, add the Sixers to the list of Cel- I mean, Celtics, Bucs, uh, the Heat are living rent-free in their heads. [laughs] Fuck's sake.
10:40
I mean, as soon as, as soon as that game tipped last night, and I can say whatever I want about Joel Embiid, he was definitely ineffective. Yeah. That was definitely part of the problem.
10:48
But the Sixers just saw this zone like a week ago from Miami.
10:52
They're prepping for this, and still they come out there and the Heat go into full zone mode, and the Sixers look like they've never seen it before in their lives. That zone, that zone was pretty cool.
11:01
Someone described it as a blob yesterday. Yep. It was very interesting to watch that zone. It really was. Uh, bottom line, Sixers minus 115 against the Knicks in the series. Do you like a Sixers bet? No.
11:11
I, I, I mean, like- 'Cause you can't do it... I have my Sixers futures. How can you do it right now? Yeah. I, I bet the Knicks in game one.
11:16
A- as soon as ga- as soon as the game one price got released, I laid two and a half with the New York Knicks. If Joel Embiid is gonna look anything like he did last night, uh, the Sixers are in major trouble.
11:26
I, and seemingly not, I, I don't feel like a lot of people are not making enough of this. I mean, he was very ineffective on offense outside of free throw shooting and the couple threes that he made.
11:35
In defense, he couldn't close out. They kept him on the perimeter and he kept allowing open, wide open threes.
11:40
We'll get Zach Cohen's thoughts on the elimination games tomorrow night, where injuries abound, maybe some tennis. NBA with Zach Cohen next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:56
Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with a free VSiN daily newsletter. In today's newsletter, sir,
12:05
we, we- Made all kind of things about the play-in tournament, playoffs, and much more All right. Started out that sentence without hearing you, but we got there in the end. [laughs] All right.
12:13
Uh, get expert analysis, the latest odds delivered straight to your inbox absolutely free. Visit vsin.com/newsletter to subscribe.
12:19
Bill's late nights become your early mornings each and every morning with the VSiN newsletter. Uh, it's Gil Alexander. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the feedback.
12:29
Bobby Gettys, "I've brought this up to multiple people now, what would the trade have to be from the Celtics to get Wemby?"
12:36
This, uh, this followed a tweet of his where he said, "Would the s- would the Spurs take the entire Celtic starting lineup for Wembanyama at this point?" To which I said, "Probably not," given his age, given the future.
12:48
I'm gonna take the easy way out here and say the finances don't work- [laughs] That's it... so you can't even enter- entertain that conversation. [laughs] Oh, terrible answer. Square Bob, I never bet total- Wait...
12:59
oh, sorry. Wa- wa- I'll add on to that, though. Yeah. Like, I... Were you not... I almost texted you th-this at, like, the... during the third quarter.
13:04
But, like, I- probably the third quarter of the Hawks-Bulls game, I'm like, "Can we just get Trae Young to the Spurs already?" Like- Oh...
13:10
accept your role as Scotty Pippen to Victor Wembanyama and, and roll your little pick and roll floater lob game with Wemby and, and let's just get this done already.
13:21
By the way, we didn't even mention that game, or I didn't mention in the first segment, the Bulls are playing the Heat in the, uh...
13:27
If y- you're wondering who's the Heat's opponent, the Bulls, 'cause they won against the, uh, Hawks last night.
13:31
The Bulls and the Hawks, you're watching that game last night and you're like, "Okay, neither of these teams deserves to be in the playoffs." No, no, it's gross. Like, what are we doing? It's gross. Someone play defense?
13:41
Anybody? No? No one? Okay, great. Uh, Square Bob, I never bet totals, but, uh, Drew Dincic screamed- Oh, killed, yeah... screamed the Bulls over last night.
13:48
Thank you, and in case you didn't hear, Drew, we need you to hold Gil captive for a sushi reveal next time he wants you for more than one segment. I'm buying.
13:54
Yeah, that was his favorite bet, uh, of these first ga- but play-in games and first round games. So yeah, he, he was all over that one. You could in-game over that all night last night.
14:03
Mickey Baca, "NBA is setting up perfectly for a Nuggets Mavericks West finals and a Sixers Celtics East finals. Let's get one of these four home."
14:10
Brian Schaefer, sorry for the grammar yesterday, uh, "Phillies three straight ties with the Guardians." Three straight ties with the Guardians. "Now they have a date with the White Sox for three.
14:19
They will be there for the final week for most wins Apr- uh, March and April." I don't know what he meant by the ties part. Uh, Dback48, "Do they ask all the quarterbacks..."
14:26
[laughs] He's gonna have to send a second apology tweet now. Yeah. [laughs] Let's go with third time's gonna be the charm, Brian. We'll get this. Uh, we'll, we'll update those Guardians, uh, Yankees standings.
14:37
Yankees, Orioles, Bra- Braves are now. It's Yankees, Braves, Guardians in that order right now. Uh, Dback48, "Do they ask the...
14:44
Did the skins ask all the quarterbacks which mother they would sleep with out of the group?" That's a Zach Wilson tribute, I believe that is. Yeah, I believe so, yes. [laughs] Los- LasVegas514, "Yo, what are we doing?
14:55
Just pick Jayden Daniels already. It's not rocket science, or is it? Sheesh." That's a Redskins fan. Uh, and then, uh, Nemesis Enforcer, "The Doris Burke was spot on." I meant the commentator. Oh, that's pretty good.
15:06
Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he is a, uh, he's, like, one of the... I should say Wes Reynolds and he, but there's, there's several guys, Adam Burke being that.
15:13
But Zach Cohen is also part of the glue that holds this entire operation together here at VSiN. Uh, he is kind enough to join us now. You can follow him on Twitter at BettingOnX.
15:23
VSiN writer and editor and just a guy who writes with volume courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. How about you guys? We're doing well.
15:32
What, uh, tennis bets are, are you sweating today? Uh, I have two left today. I didn't know if they were gonna play, but I have one in Munich.
15:39
I have Botic van de Zandschulp and, uh, Jan-Lennard Struff to go over 21 and a half games, which is, you know, tough to say both names. Yeah.
15:47
I don't know how I got through it, but, uh, [laughs] I think it's gonna be a pretty close match. Uh, van de, uh, I'll just call him Botic, [laughs] is a solid clay court player.
15:54
Uh, he came off a really big win last round. Uh, just a little bit better from the baseline than Struff is, but Struff has a really good serve.
16:02
Uh, I don't see him losing this match without at least making a pretty big dent in the scoreboard, and his baseline game has been holding up pretty well over the last few weeks.
16:10
Has played some really good clay court matches against really good clay court players. So I think it's under, uh, over 21 and a half is a pretty reasonable bet. It's a low number.
16:18
And the second one I have is Marta Kostyuk plus four and a half games.
16:22
Then I also sprinkled the money line at plus 210 against Qinwen Zheng, which is just a match where, you know, Zheng went to the final of the Australian Open, uh, hasn't really looked the same since.
16:32
And Kostyuk has been cr- incredible in 2024. She's 16 and six. Her break percentage is up over 40%. So if Zheng is not making her first serve, she's gonna make her pay for it.
16:43
And it's just a match where both players hit with so much power. It's gonna be really fun to watch. Just, you know, a lot of haymakers in this match.
16:49
But I do think Kostyuk keeps it close, and I do think that she potentially wins it, because I think she's a better mover than Zheng and just a little bit more of a creative player from the baseline.
16:57
And Marta Kostyuk against Zheng Qinwen, uh, Kelly, just a really, a match that, uh, you should probably watch is all I will say. Oh, okay. Yeah. [laughs] Just a real- Where are we at? St- Zach described this as-...
17:06
Stuttgart for that one? Stuttgart, yeah. Stuttgart. Yeah. Zach described it as a, uh, as a fun match to watch, and I would say it is fun to watch. Uh, okay, NBA. Tomorrow night we have elimination games.
17:19
Sacramento one and a half point favorites against the Pelicans. That number, of course, informed by Zion's absence for the Pels. Then the Bulls and the Heat.
17:28
The Heat only one and a half point favorites at home against the Bulls. That l- number largely informed by Jimmy Butler's absence. Butler, again, reportedly will be out weeks, uh, if the Bulls are...
17:40
excuse me, if the Heat are to advance here, uh, into the first round of the playoffs. Do you have a play on either of these games tomorrow? I do have the Kings in that game against the Pelicans.
17:50
I just think I, I don't wanna pick against Kelly's Pelicans. But I do think it's gonna be hard for New Orleans to s- you know, find the offense that they need to win that game with Zion out.
17:59
Uh, Willie Green no longer seems to trust Brandon Ingram. He's not playing big minutes, not playing the end of games.
18:05
So I do think the only way that the Pelicans could really overcome that is if they just kinda get a lot of threes up. They play Trey Murphy, you know, 35 to 40 minutes.
18:12
But they just haven't done it all season, so I don't trust them to play the rotation they need to just kinda keep up with a Kings team that we know can be explosive offensively.
18:21
I think Sabonis is gonna be a problem for Valanciunas in this game. I think that, you know, Valanciunas is another player that Green has been benching a lot. He doesn't wanna play, you know, a slow-footed center.
18:30
But whoever they put out there, if it's Valanciunas, Sabonis is a little too quick for him, and whoever else they put in, uh, you know, V- Sabonis is a little too big.
18:37
So I just think this is a really good matchup for the Kings. Uh, and I think the Kings-Thunder could be pretty fun. And then the other game, uh, it's a tough one. I think I'm kinda leaning with the Heat right now.
18:47
I know that Butler's out, but I think that Alex Caruso is also in th- a danger of missing this game. And I think that they said he has a significantly sprained ankle- Geez... and if he does miss it- Another one. Yeah.
18:56
Geez. Yeah. That's just, you know, you just talked about it, like neither of those teams were playing defense the other night. Well, Caruso's the only one that does play defense- That's right...
19:03
on the Bulls, especially on the perimeter. So I think that I would trust Spo to come up with something that works.
19:08
Yeah, I, I'll tell you, even, even if it's playoff basketball and I'm running back on defense, uh, Gil, I, I'm watching where Andre Drummond's running to because, uh- Yeah...
19:15
that's what happened last night, where Drummond just went full speed into Caruso, and you're like, "Oh my..." That's like getting hit by a Mack truck coming down the lane. It was bad.
19:24
Well, it was the, uh, the, the Bulls were up 18. In a blink they were only up six, and then before you knew it, they were back up more than 20 after that. Um, okay.
19:33
Do you, by the way, do you have a play in either of the, uh, the, the elimination games tonight? No, no. Just curious.
19:36
I, I would, I would probably lean both, both ways that, uh, that Zach just said, but man, the injuries make this gross. Yeah. It, it makes it gross. That's exactly right.
19:44
All right, of the six first-round series that have been established, half of them, Zach, half of them feature a team, again, that is favored in game one...
19:51
Excuse me, that is a dog in game one, is, but actually a series favorite. So we're talking about Sixers-Knicks, where the Sixers are a fir- uh, a game-one dog, but actually a tick of a favorite in the series.
20:02
Uh, that also relates to the Suns and the Timberwolves, where the Suns are a dog, uh, in game one of the series, but actually a slight favorite in the series.
20:09
And then, uh, in the case of the Pacers and the Bucks, again, largely informed by the Giannis injury, 'cause we know he's out game one.
20:15
Uh, Pacers are a slight one-and-a-half point favorite game one, but the Bucks a tick of a favorite in the series. So that's half of your established series already have that strange anomalous thing happening already.
20:26
Do you have a play in any of those series-wise, or games one, if you will, or any of the other three series? I have plays in most of the series. I don't have anything in game one yet.
20:35
I'm still writing up [laughs] series previews. I'm not done yet until we get the Kings-Pelicans result. So I'm still looking at the series mostly. Um, I do have the Sixers to beat the Knicks.
20:45
Uh, I'm not adding too much to it because I added the Sixers at 20 to one. I wrote it up in our NBA playoffs, uh, primer that we put out on draftkings.com.
20:53
But I did pick, uh, the Sixers at 20 to one to win the Eastern Conference. Was hoping that they'd make it through that game last night. It was really ugly. But I do think it's a really tough matchup for the Knicks.
21:03
It's nothing against the Knicks.
21:04
They're missing a guy that makes $30 million a year, you know, their second most offensive pl- you know, second best offensive player in Julius Randle, and I do think that you're going to be missing him in a series against the Sixers, where I think that Tyrese Maxey can kind of keep up with Jalen Brunson over the course of seven games, and I don't think that the Knicks [laughs] have someone that can keep up with Embiid.
21:23
I think that Tobias Harris arguably the third, you know, the best number three in this series. So I think it could be ugly.
21:29
I mean, it's gonna be a, you know, a series where all of the games are probably gonna be close, but I do think Philadelphia's the better team as long as Embiid makes it through it, although he looked horrible last night.
21:37
I thought that he was looked slow. He looked like he was in pain, and I just didn't think he should be out there. But he got through it, so, you know, maybe a few days of rest will help him.
21:45
Anything else in the first round? I have the Nuggets minus one and a half against the Lakers. It's about minus 140, so you have to lay a little bit of juice to take it.
21:54
But I, I don't know, like I know the Lakers are a little bit better than they were last year, but they still got swept by the Nuggets this year.
22:00
I still don't think that they have an answer for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in that two-man game.
22:04
And I like that, you know, the, the Nuggets have Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to throw on D'Angelo Russell, who has been scorching hot for the Lakers lately.
22:11
But Russell's not a guy that can really shake free from a really good defender like Caldwell-Pope. He needs to have open space. So I do think the Lakers are gonna be in a little bit of trouble offensively in the series.
22:21
All right, I'm taking a survey. Celtics total number of losses in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the new line is four and a half. Over or under?
22:30
I'll go over because I do think that they could have, they could run into a little bit of trouble in the Eastern Conference finals. Okay, the number is five and a half. Over or under? [laughs] Under. Ah.
22:38
[laughs] We're, we're price discovering is what we're doing. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Joe, Joe Sheehan on MLB next.
22:45
For a limited time we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits for free. Just sign up at beaston.com/splits. Split bets. The Beaston betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes.
22:54
You can see changes in all the action, find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money does not match the public opinion.
23:00
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23:09
Don't strike out. Do not, on potential winnings. Visit beaston.com/splits. Start making smarter bets today. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, it's The Numbers Game live from Bar Canada at the D.
23:21
Always a pleasure to have this gentleman on the show. Um, writes for The Action Network. He, uh, you know him on Twitter as Vegas Refund.
23:29
We know him as Luke Swain, and he joins us now to talk NFL draft courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Good morning to you, Luke. How you doing, man? Good morning. Thanks for having me.
23:38
Uh, we were joking about this off air, as poor form as this to start the interview, I'm going to start by not asking you about your opinion, but that yesterday you were on a conference call with Daniel Jeremiah.
23:50
Uh, first of all, who gets invited to this kind... How many people are allowed on this conference call?
23:55
Yeah, so like every year he's done it where it's a two-hour long basically Q&A that he's gonna be do- he does with I guess the media, um, where really it's just, it's two, it, it's, the, it's tough to listen to.
24:09
And there was a link for the live video that I guess anyone could listen into, um, which it was kind of buried, um, and hard to find, but I found it, got in, listened to the entire thing.
24:21
Some of the questions were tough. I mean, some of the reporters were asking questions like evaluations on Canadian players in the draft. It's like, I, I- [laughs] Like, next question, please. But, uh- Oh, good...
24:31
there were definitely some, some good nuggets taken away from the two-hour long conference call they did.
24:37
And right now we're kind of scraping for anything worthy, um, in terms of like betting off of, and this is definitely the best thing we got. All right. Well, but before we get to your thoughts, give us his good nuggets.
24:48
What did you learn? Yeah.
24:50
So a couple nuggets that I think are all bettable off of were, the first one was Byron Murphy being a top 10 surprise pick that you wouldn't be shocked to happen, which his top 10 odds right now I think are 7 to 1, um, maybe higher depending on the book.
25:04
There might be a, a 10 to 1 out there. Um, and then he also, I think one of the most notable things he brought up is
25:11
he spoke to like the consensus wide receivers in like the 20s, which maybe they're a Donte Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, and he kind of got into thinking that
25:21
what the consensus is to the media or public on what receiver's gonna go away in the first, he thinks might slide out of the first, and guys that we have projected in the second might sneak in, um, which could create first round bet values as well.
25:35
And the common narrative we've heard a lot is that the receivers are gonna go later than we think due to just the depth at that position in this draft and the scarcity of guys like offensive linemen. Um- Hmm...
25:48
then the last one, and th- this one was honestly a shocker, uh, but DJ puts out his top 50, and outside of his top 50, like, you really don't know his rankings.
25:58
Uh, and he dropped a nugget on Tanner McLaughlin out of Arizona to be his second ranked tight end, um, which I immediately looked up second tight end to be drafted. And, [laughs] and at the time he was 100 to 1.
26:15
He's not that anymore.
26:17
Um, the, it's still juicy, but, um, he admitted that he was probably higher on him than teams, but again, like Jeremiah's probably the closest thing we have to what teams are thinking, um, in terms of like the mainstream media, and him saying that, uh, when we really wouldn't have a view on his, like, positional rankings, was very notable.
26:39
Um, he had Bowers going to the Jets. He thinks it would be Fagawa, Fitano in that order if Bowers isn't there. He had Chop, Chop Robinson, or Riser could be the second edge off the board.
26:52
Um, and that's pretty much, that's pretty much it. But it's a, there's a transcript online if you're a big control find guy. Um, it's like, I think 40 pages long. Wow. Um, worth going through.
27:03
I guess, and I guess he does it because rather than answering everybody's inter- in, you know, individual interview requests, now he's just like, he sits on his throne and he takes all comers- [laughs]...
27:13
and they can get it all in, uh, in once. Uh, good for him. Okay, so Tanner McLaughlin, second tight end, another prop we don't have in Nevada, Kelly, anywhere. Yeah. I was like, second tight end?
27:21
[laughs] I was gonna say, second tight end. What kind of, what kind of sci-fi props are you talking about? [laughs] All right. Okay. All right, Luke, let's get to your thoughts.
27:29
Let me begin with the Denver Broncos at number 12. There was so much talk about them falling in love with Bo Nix. What do, what do you think? Yeah.
27:38
So I think one of the better value opportunities out there right now is going to be the Broncos positional odds. So Broncos to draft a tight end first, wide receiver first, whatever it is.
27:50
And right now if you look at those odds, quarterback is heavily favored. Um, I think it was about minus 110, maybe higher a week ago. I think it's even odds now.
28:02
Uh, but if you're of the opinion, like myself, that Bo Nix isn't gonna be drafted by the Broncos at number 12, uh, then these odds have value.
28:10
Um, I think offensive line, which could be is nine to one, ten to one depending on the book, or corner, which is five to six to one, are great bets.
28:19
And I mean, defensive line, I wouldn't be against that either, which is three to one currently.
28:23
And if you just remove quarterback from the equation in terms of these odds and it wasn't as heavily favored, probably all three of these positions' odds would be cut in half.
28:33
O-line would probably be like four to one instead of the 10 to ones.
28:37
Um, so I'm of opinion they're not gonna take a quarterback at 12, assuming they draft there, um, in that the other positions have a ton of value currently. All right.
28:46
We just talked about, uh, Tyler McLaughlin and, uh, uh, going second in terms of tight ends. Who, who would be your second offensive lineman going in this draft? Right now I think in terms of the...
28:59
I think Fitano has the best value, which would be the Jets at 10, um, assuming they don't take Bowers if they don't. But right now I think the most opportunity is with the offensive lineman 'cause it, it is so elite that
29:14
a different per- every person you ask is probably gonna have a different order. The second lineman, I would probably say Fitano or Latham have the best value.
29:21
But if, if I was making a mock draft, it would probably be Fagawa. By the way, I said Tyler McLaughlin. Of course, I meant Tanner McLaughlin. Okay.
29:28
What about, um, do you have any specific thoughts on draft positions late in the first round? So with, there are, like Circa's one book that has, uh, h- all the way up to, I think it's like 130.
29:44
Uh, but right now, like, I think, like, my best advice to that is there is a lot of value, they're hand moving each one.
29:50
I would definitely default to big boards over mock drafts if you're trying to bet an over-under outside of the first round. Uh, but- I think the receivers are gonna fall, like, off of Jeremiah.
30:02
So whether that's Xavier Worthy. They think Adande Mitchell is a little bit overvalued right now at 27 and a half.
30:09
Um, I wouldn't bet the under, even on guys like Schefter, who to me is too mainstream to really value, um, and bet off of his opinion.
30:17
Uh, but I think the overs on the late w- receivers are probably, uh, the way to go currently. Okay.
30:23
Uh, and also in th- in that same vein, we talked obviously about the Jeremiah intel that Byron Murphy could be a surprise top 10 pick. His position is, is slotted at 18 and a half, so I assume you would go under there.
30:36
Yeah, so, uh, that was actually my first bet I made of this draft season, was Murphy under 18 and a half. Now it's at 16 and a half. I still would only bet the under.
30:46
A lot of mock drafts have him going to the Bengals or the Rams, which is 18 and 19. And m- Jeremiah said it a couple weeks ago.
30:55
Rugler came out today on a podcast saying his range is eight to 18, which is in that sweet spot of the over-under, and also ironically, um, starts with the Falcons, which is kind of the same vein of what Jeremiah said yesterday with the Falcons being that surprise team to take Murphy.
31:11
Um, but yeah, I, I, I don't see him. He's the guy that it seems like every guy we trust is touting that he's going to go way earlier, um, than what the media thinks.
31:22
Uh, Jared Verse of FSU, who, uh, unbeknownst to him, played exhibition football here last year. Uh, we were watching, Kelly and I w- saw an ESPN graphic about who Atlanta was gonna pick at eight.
31:32
Everyone had Dallas Turner with the exception of one person who had Jared Verse. He's at 14 and a half. Which way you betting on Verse?
31:39
So I, I'm on the, I would like the over on the Verse prop, where to me this is, there are rumors that he's gonna go in the top 10 to maybe the Bears.
31:49
But for me, if he doesn't go to the Bears at nine, then he's going to fly over, um, and not go, and probably go in the range of, like, 16, 17, 18, maybe later.
31:59
Uh, but Verse it's like, do you wanna pair Jared Verse to go top 10 or to go number nine with the over? I think that's, uh, a good hedge that I'm not doing, but it could be fun.
32:10
But I think Verse is a over or bust, and the only way I would go un- under is just better playing, like, exact odds- All right... in the top 10 for him. All right, Luke, we got 60 seconds. Let's do these rapid fire.
32:23
Graham Barton is at 23 and a half. Over or under? Under, definitely. JC Latham, 14 and a half. Over or under? I would say, I would, under. Um, at, I would not lay juice with him, though, heavy.
32:40
If you can get plus money under, you'd lay it that way. Yeah. Okay. Um, Quinyon Mitchell. I think that, that's still a, that's still an over. I think Terrion Arnold has a lot of steam.
32:51
Um, if you asked me the same question a week or two ago, I would definitely say under. But with the Arnold hype, um, I think Mitchell is definitely an over play at this point. And he's set at 13 and a half, I should say.
33:01
And lastly, Tyler Guyton at 29 and a half. Uh, that is a under. I think it should be 24 and a half. Luke, I appreciate it. We all appreciate it.
33:11
Vegas Refund, again, by the way, giving him the street cred that we gave him earlier.
33:15
Nothing but pl- nothing but positive money gain in all NFL drafts and NBA drafts with the exception, like so many of us, of last year's NFL draft. Let's get back at it. Thank you so much, Luke. Appreciate it. Thank you.
33:27
Luke Swain at Vegas Refund from The Athletic. Appreciate that. Interesting Daniel Jeremiah intel as well.
33:39
Don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:46
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33:54
New customers bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code VSIN, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback.
34:05
By the way, what are we seeing on, uh... [laughs] We're immediately, whatever Luke said, we're, like, r- s- rushing to see what's available here in Nevada.
34:11
Well, yeah, it was, uh, well, Byron Murphy top 10, plus, plus 650 at DraftKings. The only book that has, uh, I think the only book. I could be wrong, but I think the only- I th- I think it is...
34:20
maybe the only book here in Nevada listing top 10, uh, props has him at plus 350. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah. So there were, there, there was that one.
34:29
And then we were laughing about the, the McLaughlin second tight end, uh, to be drafted, but that is the only tight end, uh, uh, prop actually that's up at DraftKings right now, because number one's just assumed to be Brock Bowers.
34:43
So he is 20 to 1 there, where he had mentioned he was 100 to 1- I mean-... y- what, yesterday? But it's so funny, 'cause when he said that, we, you and I didn't lock eyes on this. We thought the same thing though.
34:54
[laughs] Like, here in Nevada, him saying second tight end drafted, he might as well have said the fourth place kicker drafted, or like, you know, like, some, some thing, something ridiculous. Yeah, exactly.
35:03
[laughs] That might actually be easy. But like the, the seventh k- you know. Yes, no on will a, will a- Yeah... other college athlete- [laughs]... other than a football player be drafted in the... That's right.
35:13
Uh, it might as well have been the same thing. G- who will be the third holder drafted? [laughs] Uh, we get tweets at Be the Book. Always appreciate the feedback from everybody, really. Best listeners in the game.
35:23
Lu- Luke is awesome. I- He's awesome... he is. However you can consume his information for, in this time of year- 100%... is well worth your time if you are betting on the drafts.
35:33
And he really acted as a reporter for us on the Jeremiah- Mm-hmm... uh, conference call, 'cause that, I mean, that's awesome.
35:39
And by the way, he wanted to talk about it, just in case you're like, "Oh, that was bad form asking him for the opinion of someone else." Yeah, no, he, he- He wanted to talk about that...
35:45
yeah, he prefaced it with saying he thought there was a lot of betting nuggets in there well worth it for us. We get tweets.
35:50
Corbin, "Sorry, Gil, to be the bearer of bad news, but I believe that your Guardians win total is now officially jinxed. Uh, if it does lose, you can solely blame it on, uh, J-" What is this?
36:00
Is this a, oh, there's a Twitter, there's an Instagram page that mistakenly posted a Guardian's GIF that had them with the best record in baseball at 12 and five. Well, they were yesterday. Ugh. Not anymore.
36:12
Uh, Cowboys_Cubs1, "I'm guessing Bill Crackman is in Toasty's gallery just like VJ. Uh, he sees Crack in all black with a Kangol and he's thinking the mob is following him." [laughs] Do you remember that story? Yeah.
36:21
The VJ Singh story? [laughs] VJ Singh, like, looking at Crack, like, "What the heck?" Oh, man. I, I miss VJ stories, period.
36:27
Re- remember when the, remember, like, the whole, like, six-month period where deer antler spray was the th- was a thing? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Remember, like, Alabama football got tied up in it? Yeah.
36:35
And then, like, somehow VJ Singh was, like- [laughs]... the only golfer that was like, "Yeah, I use deer antler spray. What's the problem with it?" Bruce Dobingen, "Bo Nix the elder," he says. Yeah.
36:45
Oh, Jordan Pagel, I'm so glad you brought this up. Tara McLaughlin down to 18 to one. Good job, audience. There you go. [laughs] McLaughlin is 18 to one now? I just ha- I just had it pulled up in front of me.
36:55
Tam- Tara McLaughlin, tight end, Arizona, now down to 18 to one. Didn't we do that? Jordan Pagel, "I can't believe you guys haven't discussed this." Oh, he's so right, because every morning I've meant to discuss this.
37:06
You know, Caesar's revolutionary strategy to put up draft props and have you guess the player you're betting on. Oh my gosh, yeah. Okay. Yeah. So Caesar's has pages of draft props.
37:17
The only problem is that about four of them have- I- it's specifically with d- with draft position So there's, yeah, so there's- With, so draft position- We sh-...
37:27
you will, you will get a number I- it's over 16 and a half, minus 195, under 16 and a half, plus 155. There's only one problem. [laughs] There's no player. How have we not talked about this yet?
37:37
The next one, over 26 and a half, minus 330, under 26 and a half, plus 250. Oh man, I gotta bet this! Except I don't know who they're talking about. There's pages of this.
37:46
Thank you, Jordan for, uh- I, I, I wish I could say that's the only sport and market I've encountered that problem with there. Uh, if you wanted to look at the exactas for the NBA championship, same thing. Yeah.
37:58
Same, I think you get one team. It's like Boston Celtics 30 to one, and you're like, "Well, who are they, who are they beating?"
38:03
But it's like when somebody, they're like, "Oh, Caesar's has tons of draft props," except, uh, no one knows what they are.
38:08
I don't know if you've had the same reaction as I have when I, I've pulled those up and I'm like, "Well, I'm moving on to the next book 'cause I'm not spending..."
38:14
[laughs] Like, you actually could, you could hit over, go to your bet slip, and then I think it shows it there, but I'm not going through every single one of those. Oh, it does if you put it in a bet slip?
38:22
I believe so, yes. It magically appears in the bet slip? Yeah, the name will appear in the bet slip. Oh, that's ridiculous. But, like, I'm not going through every single one. Eric Biggio, you should know about this.
38:31
[laughs] Chance Copperpot, "You speak of age being a factor for the quarterbacks in this draft.
38:36
I feel like you guys are forgetting about the illustrious career of one Chris Weinke, pride of Creighton Durham High School and FSU." Yep. Chris, Chris Weinke was twenty- Chris Weinke was great...
38:44
six years old playing at FSU when he won the Heisman. He won the Heisman, Kelly. Yeah, he did. Oh, New York Morty, good one. "Just a heads-up for next weekend, MLB's playing in Mexico City April 27, 28.
38:56
Uh, last year, remember they kept, uh, the, the books didn't, uh, really acknowledge the fact that they were in Mexico City with the high elevation." Really? And so the totals remained at eight and a half.
39:06
Let's keep our eyes out for that. Altitude, elevation. Elevation, Kelly. [laughs] Remember, elevation is above sea level, ladies and gentlemen. Altitude is, uh, how far up I am from the ground right now. Oh, man.
39:16
Just wanna point that out. That was, that was one of my favorite moments on Prime Time Action, the history. Reopened. Oh, me and Matt were getting into it.
39:22
Oh, that, that wa- it, the most you have ever, I've ever witnessed on-air or off-air Matt Brown- Matt Brown... and Gil Alexander argue about something was altitude verse elevation, the definition of each.
39:32
But, and what we determined is it's, it, they u- they're used so interchangeably now that no one cares and both are accepted. Yes, pretty much. Right? Okay.
39:40
Uh, "By the way, that eight and a half last year reopened to, to 15 and a half a few hours later," uh, New York Morty points out. So something to keep an eye on. He's absolutely right.
39:48
And then Keen Crane Pool, uh, "Earthquakes in the-" Oh, the baseball total? Yeah. Oh, got it. In Mexico City next week.
39:53
"Earthquakes in the northeast, uh, NBA players making $5 parlays, pineapple on pizza, and now, uh, Crackman appearing on sans his trademark Kangol instead of a, uh, instead with a Masters baseball cap.
40:06
I don't know if I can go on," he says, basically. Hey, Raj Body, nice to be back. He goes, "Beautiful dynasty," I was talking about the Warriors, um, talking about my Warriors comment- commentary from yesterday.
40:16
He goes, "A beautiful dynasty that also changed the way NBA basketball is played now. Thanks for this, Gil." Yeah, thank, thank you for everybody who, uh, wrote in about the Warriors tribute.
40:24
Pouring out a 40, DRS, Gangstaline, for those who are in the know. Uh, can I mention one thing about this Jontay Porter thing? Of course. Uh, so the NBA has banned Jontay Porter.
40:34
When this first came out, this story, uh, we talked about it juxtaposed against the Shohei story, and my whole thing was that day I was like, "Oh, Jontay, he's completely guilty." Like, I immediately, I was like- Yeah.
40:42
[laughs]... "He's, the, the, the elements are in place for this to be completely guilty."
40:47
And then with Shohei, I was like, "Hey, y'all might be right that he's doing it, but actually he could be telling the truth," right? Yep. That was, that was the very first day what we said on this.
40:53
So the NBA has, as you probably didn't miss it, um, you probably heard that they have banned Jontay Porter, and I just wanna say one thing about this reaction, which is, and I think it needs to be said, because a lot of people are saying, "Well, this is exactly,"
41:07
you know, a lot of people with a, with a very, think they have a very evolved take when they say, "This is exactly what regulated sports betting markets are there for.
41:15
This is precisely why they, you know, got him," oh, you know, eliminating the fact that they took $80,000 on this prop bet. And I just wanna add in that, that it does, it does conveniently leave out one element, which is
41:31
they're given, you're giving regulated sports markets credit for the policing of this. But on the other hand, it's the regulated sports market that are creating the vehicles
41:41
that make this kind of thing even possible, right? The construct of same-game parlays or props on marginal players creates an environment where this kind of thing can happen.
41:55
So again, when the people talk about, oh, regulated versus unregulated, it's actually, in this case, it's actually not a complete argument.
42:01
I just wanna point that out, that same-game parlays don't exist in unregulated markets at all, where you can manipulate something, right? Mm. And props on lesser players,
42:13
I w- I don't wanna say they don't exist at all, but they certainly don't exist nearly to the extent.
42:18
I haven't checked recently to see if you would, and I, my, my instinct is that those don't exist very often either in terms of the, the pillars.
42:24
I don't know about the, the lesser, uh, offshore shops, but I'm talking about the pillars.
42:28
So I just wanna say that has to be added to that conversation where it's like, "Hey, yeah, like this is going to happen if a player who's making, relatively speaking, very little money," Jontay Porter making low s- you know, middle-ish six figures as opposed to eight or nine figure contracts, right?
42:46
That a guy like that is, is...
42:50
There are gonna be guys like that that can't resist the temptation of either th- you know, by themselves or through a gambler that they're feeding information to, trying to exploit those kinds of things.
43:01
So just when you hear people making that argument, I just wanna point out that it's a broader conversation.
43:07
Yeah, no, I, I mean, I think that, that the way you just put it, too, goes back to the way we ta- w- our initial reaction to the discussion about banning props on college players, right? It's only- Yes...
43:17
you're only talking about a, a marginal step up when you're talking about a guy like Jontay Porter. Yeah. Right? You are...
43:23
Uh, y- I think you put it really well that w- that, that, p- put it really well that day, unlike I'm doing right now, um, [laughs] just take the temptation away from the college kids, right?
43:32
And I, it, it does, it gets tricky when I think you make that- Yeah... jump from college to pro, and where do you draw the line, and- And that's already banned in many states. Right, yeah.
43:40
You can't, you, we don't have props on college sports in many ways. Yeah, I mean, we, I, I- Yeah...
43:43
you know, some of this stuff, it, it's a great conversation because where do you draw the line i- is something that we've gotta figure out with this, with all of this. You're staying away from the two games tonight?
43:53
Nothing in the play-ins? A- actually, tomorrow night, the, uh, elimination games? Yeah, nothing. Nothing. My brain is so fried- I'm sorry... from late NBA. I'm sorry. I'm like, "What day is it?" [laughs] Me too.
44:00
As you can tell, it is that, yeah. So the elimination games tomorrow night, and again, injuries abound. That's how we started this show. That's how we will end this show.
44:07
The Celtics mythical prop of how many losses in the Eastern Conference falls to four and a half now, I think. We've done all we can do. GoJoe and Golick are next. Enjoy, from Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
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