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Apr 19, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 19, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 19, 2024
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate you taking us in however you're taking us in this morning. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
It's Kelly Midlan live from Bar Canada at The D. Kelly Midlan, ladies and gentlemen, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. What's happening? Not much, man. Not much.
0:30
There's a, there's like a rogue walkie-talkie going on behind us right now- [laughs]... that's really distracting. We were just, we were just breaking down the, the essence of that name. Yeah. So that, that, that stuck.
0:40
What do you call that device? Walkie-talkie. [laughs] So great. One of my favorite stand-ups ever is the Brian Regan- Yes... stand-up on the walkie-talkie. Oh. You can just watch the two-minute YouTube right now.
0:50
[laughs] It's hilarious. So great. Uh, all right, this is such a great time of year as the, uh, the run-up to the NFL draft is coming. Uh, we will talk to, uh, so many... We'll talk to Frank Schwab about that.
1:00
I have added a bet this morning. We will get to that momentarily. Uh, we'll talk to Frank Schwab from Yahoo about the NFL draft. Jason Weingart will be here to talk all of his bets.
1:08
Nick Whalen on the NBA playoffs, which after the two elimination games tonight, begins in earnest tomorrow. Paul Carr on the Premier League. How about some UFL with Stormy Bonatony? Yeah. We're covering it all today.
1:22
Stormy, uh, on the table or is she, uh, is she- On Skype... uh, calling on Skype? Yeah, on Skype. She's calling on Skype. Okay. Uh, we'll do all of that. Uh, we'll update the Guardians bet as well.
1:30
We have to start with the, uh, NFL draft movement that happened this really overnight f- regarding the number two pick in the draft, and this involves my, uh, my boyhood team, the Washington Commodores.
1:42
Um, Jayden Daniels, at one point yesterday, the Jayden Daniels-Drake May, who will be the second pick in the draft market, who will be the number two pick in the draft, was minus 115 on each side. Yeah. Got to that.
1:55
Saw that here at Circa. I think I saw mi- someone tweet out minus 110 each way over at DraftKings. Yeah. So yeah, it, uh, ooh, it got, got exciting last night.
2:05
Well, I didn't think I was gonna make any more bets in this NFL draft after my flurry earlier in the week, but guess what? I just bet Jayden Daniels minus 125 at Caesars this morning to go number two. Um, why the steam?
2:18
Let's start there.
2:19
Some are speculating that it's 'cause Daniel Jeremiah, uh, said something specifically that he's personally leaning towards the Commanders drafting North Carolina quarterback Drake May over Daniels, so maybe that was the movement.
2:32
I, I think it's more perhaps what I was talking about earlier this, this week about Jayden Daniels' agent liking a couple tweets, uh, one from Mike Florio, m- one from Mike Florio from F- Pro Football Talk, the other from just, uh, someone chiming in on that one a little more harshly about how, uh, Adam Peters and the taco holders brought in four quarterbacks all at once, uh, amongst a group of 20, by the way.
2:57
But, uh, besides Bo Nix and Caleb Williams, they brought in the other four, uh, remaining quarterbacks that are speculated to perhaps go in the first round at the same time, and Florio didn't like that.
3:06
And, and Jayden Daniels' agent liked the, the ne- the tweet about that, you know, criticizing it. He also then, uh, it was also reported then that Jayden Daniels met with the Vikings thereafter as well.
3:20
So I think if you put all those three things in- Mm-hmm... including the Jeremiah, um, comment, because people do pay attention as we had Vegas Refund, uh, Luke Swain on yesterday.
3:29
He reported back about the, uh, Jeremiah news conference. People obviously pay attention to what Jeremiah has to say. He's like the EF Hutton of the NFL draft.
3:37
And so put all that in the mix, and it moved, and it moved dramatically because Jayden Daniels was over a $2 favorite to have gone number two, and then all of a sudden, here we are near, near a pick 'em, even though Daniels is just a tick of a favorite now.
3:53
And Kelly, I just, I feel like in all this discussion about this, 'cause people are speculating, 'cause w- w- what are people looking for? The mainstream media guys like Peter Schrager, like Adam Schefter,
4:05
they're all using the language of, "My intel says," or, "The signs that I'm hearing around the league, that I'm picking up on, are, is that Washington is going with Jayden Daniels."
4:16
So the mainstream guys are still using that kind of vague language. Uh, and I hear, I'm hearing folks this morning saying, you know, they're not sure what's gonna happen.
4:25
I feel like in, in all the discussion on this, that one major point is being left out, and that is a human one more than a football one, which is that if you're Adam Peters, and I get it, you have no history with this franchise, and you have a new owner, and supposedly you have carte blanche to pick whoever you want at number two.
4:44
But a human characteristic is that as much as you want to do s- something that succeeds, you are equally, if not more, motivated by not doing something that will be a failure, and the repercussions that come with that failure.
4:59
Now, that's not to say that no matter who you pick at number two, if it fails, you're not gonna have repercussions.
5:05
But I am here to sort of offer this as my take on it, which is I think in the end, Adam Peters is either tacitly or verbally, but I'm gonna say it's gonna be unspoken. I think it's gonna be tacitly.
5:19
He is gonna make the calculus that if I pick Drake May, and that fails, and/or Jayden Daniels becomes this great player for another team, that the repercussions of that for him personally starting out as the new GM of the Washington football team is going to be that much worse than if he picks Drake May, and that happens to fail over time.
5:44
Uh, excuse me, that if he picks Jayden Daniels, and that happens to fail over time.
5:49
Because I think with the j- if you pick Jayden Daniels, and that fails, you can still fall back on, well, he won the Heisman, he's multidimensional, um, played for a bigger program.
5:59
I think there's ways to talk yourself through that and overcome that more cleanly than you could if you took- A little bit more of, dare I say, a reach, let's put that in, in relative terms, on a guy like Drake May.
6:14
Not to mention, not to mention that even though Adam Peters doesn't have history with this franchise, that he has to be well aware of the muscle memory of that fan base, which is, well, when we last had the number two pick and picked a quarterback, a gentleman by the name of Robert Griffin III was outstanding, was the rookie of the year, and until he got hurt was everything you could have possibly imagined him to be.
6:39
And the flip side of that is the last North Carolina quarterback that they drafted just a couple years ago, well, let's just say Sam Howell wasn't exactly- Yeah... in the Hall of Fame.
6:50
So I j- I just wanna s- I, I put all that in the mix for me, and I think the motivation of that fear and that m- and that precipitous drop of credibility if it goes wrong, if you pick May and it go, and it, and it goes badly, I think that's as much of a motivating factor in all this than anything.
7:10
I think Washington is gonna take Jayden Daniels, and I bet it this morning at minus 125.
7:16
I'd hate to think that if I just hired a new GM that that's their attitude, but you know it's gotta be in the back of their head a little bit, right? We're all human. And we're all human.
7:26
I think the big- I think the big one with that, like the way I would almost spin it is, is 'cause I think we've seen this more recently with guys like Justin Fields.
7:34
Jayden Daniels' legs are gonna be a w- a weapon enough that his rookie season, even if the throwing doesn't develop right away, it buys you more time as a GM, right?
7:46
Like, that, I think that's the whole Justin Fields thing. Once we saw him running the ball, you're like, "Whoa. Okay, he can get it done on the ground. We c- let's give him a little time for his arm to develop."
7:54
And I think, I think Daniels bails you out a little bit more in that sense than what Drake Maye does, right? 'Cause Drake Maye isn't amazing right off the bat.
8:02
I think you're immediately gonna get a lot of those questions of, "Oh, what did we do here?" When Daniels, I think, gives you a little bit more time, uh, to, to, uh, to allow him to develop.
8:13
I think it's really interesting. I think with all this stuff, yeah, ev- everything you just brought up, I mean, I, I've kind of been, you know, th- thinking it's Daniels number two all along.
8:21
I don't really think that there's any of that. I wasn't gonna bet this, but now- Yeah... the market moved in a way where I'm like, "I gotta bet this."
8:26
Well, and, you know, I'm, I'm, how many times have I brought up and I'm like, "It's minus 270 now. It's minus 300 now." Right.
8:30
I think I'm going to be joining you with on this bet today 'cause I, I think you, I think we just listed everything that's a factor here. Well- None of that's big enough to really take me away from the bet.
8:39
Well, one more, and this piggybacks what you were saying, is this is not a horrible offense. This is an offense that has the incomparable Terry McLaurin- Mm-hmm... as your wide receiver one. Jahan Dotson, Dyami Brown.
8:53
You have wide outs. Yep. You also have now in a backfield, and I know people say, "Oh, Austin Ekeler, you pay, you overpaid for a third down back." Well, maybe you did, but you still have him.
9:02
And you have Brian Robinson as your workhorse. So you have pieces. Then you say, "Oh, but your offensive line stinks."
9:07
Yeah, but this team has the 36th and the 40th pick in the draft as well, which they, even if they d- if they stay there, they draft an offensive tackle.
9:15
But you could package those two and trade up for an offensive tackle as well, the one that you like the best, in the late part of the first round, 'cause that has contract implications.
9:24
So you have it set up where if your rookie quarterback is actually good, I'm not gonna say top 10, but if it's like top half of league good, good, you're a playoff team. Yeah.
9:37
And then you have the prospect, what do we always say? You can only win a Super Bowl if you have a quarterback that overperforms on a rookie quarterback or is a Hall of Famer.
9:45
Then in the subsequent years, 'cause they're not a Super Bowl contender. They're a playoff contender, not a Super Bowl contender.
9:51
But you could also then get your mind into, yeah, but in two or three years if he's really good- Right... maybe we are that. So I just don't, I don't get the Drake Maye movement at all. Don't get it.
10:03
I don't get that it's, it- I, I get it literally by what I said at the beginning of this. Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I understand why it is, but I don't, I... Let's put it this way. To the level, right?
10:11
I, w- people will... I mean, it doesn't take a whole bunch to move NFL draft, uh, markets. But let's just put it this way. You've moved it enough now where I'm in. Mm-hmm. Yeah.
10:20
I, I guess I was surprised by how much it moved. I, that- Yeah... that was really mine. And, uh, I mean, the third overall pick odds now [laughs] are, this is, this is a crapshoot, right?
10:29
I mean, you're tell- we're sitting here less than six days away from the draft and you're talking even money on Drake Maye, plus 115 on Daniels, and plus 275 on McCarthy, and I got no idea.
10:39
Well, also with the Patriots, uh, there's some speculation, and I don't know this to be the case, but it's, you know, speculation like all speculation is, that if Daniels is the guy they really want and they're not as high on Drake Maye- Right...
10:51
do they trade out of there? Well- Because they have an early second round pick. Um- I think they're a major trade candidate... I wanna say it's 34. They have 34.
11:01
So y- they may very well be thinking to themselves, "Well, if we like Bo Nix kind of more than everybody else, maybe we can just get a quarterback at 34."
11:12
So I don't know if there's all k- you're right, it's a domino effect no matter what happens here. Yeah.
11:15
I mean, we've been saying it all week, but I, I, I think three, four, five, that they are all major trade candidates, and that's why you're seeing some of the McCarthy odds like that, right?
11:24
'Cause that's the expectation, is that they're gonna be able, uh, Vikings gonna be able to trade up somewhere in that range. Just when I thought I was out, Kelly- Yeah... the draft pulled me back in.
11:33
I'm probably gonna be joining you. I kind of wanna see what, how the market reacts today during the a- like, during the full day with that market. Well, after that silly tweet just now, expect it to spike.
11:42
[laughs] We'll start things with the Premier League and Paul Carr next. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:49
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
12:07
From the play-in tournament through the finals, DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered with same-game parlays, live betting, odds boosts, and so much more. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app, use code VSiN.
12:16
New customers bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code V-S-I-N. Only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Uh, we got this, uh, tweet from...
12:28
By the way, Topher Baron has, uh, has decided to, uh, bet some tennis, and I think it's going well for him this morning. Good for you, Topher. Hope it works out.
12:36
Jason H11, "When the Ginger Ninja puts the hand up, step back." He's talking about what I was talking about before we had this sign. [laughs] Our big security was Kelly going- Halt... with his hand, halt.
12:45
[laughs] Uh, and he called you the Ginger Ninja, and I, can I just shout you out for people?
12:50
Uh, people who are with us every morning and see you on camera, much like I see you in person, it, it, we don't notice it because we're with you every day- Mm-hmm...
12:57
'cause it's imperceptible, but you have lost how much weight? About 30 pounds since middle of December. Good for you, man.
13:05
I'd like to say thanks, but I'd also like to shout out the pharmaceutical companies out there- Sure... 'cause, uh, yeah, the, uh, yeah, I'm on the old Wegovy right now, and it's, uh, it's working quite well.
13:13
It's working quite well. So, so I will not be seeing you, like r- like, running Forrest Gump style through Las Vegas. Yeah. Right. Yeah, yeah. That's not what's happening.
13:19
What I like to tell people is if you watch Always Sunny with Philadelphia, the, uh, if you know the scene where Mac is just injecting himself with insulin while eating a big burrito, that's kind of like me still.
13:29
Like, yes, the, yes, the exercise has increased. I'm eating a little better. Yeah. But oh boy, do drugs, uh, drugs help. That's for sure. Good for you, man. Thanks. I appreciate it. How do you feel? You feel better?
13:38
[laughs] We, we were laughing about that out there. Do you feel, do you feel better? I've never been one of those people, like, people lose the five pounds, and they're like, "I feel so much better.
13:47
I've got so much more energy." I'm like, I, I feel exactly the same. Good for you, man. I drink, like, a pot of coffee every morning- Keep on going, as they say... so I always got energy, right? You have a goal weight?
13:55
Do you have a goal weight? No? No? Yeah, a lot more. Okay, a lot more. [laughs] Uh, this man has never had a weight problem, I'm guessing.
14:00
Uh, from Rotowire, it's our buddy Nick Whelan, who you can follow on Twitter, one of the, uh, great Twitter handles. Uh, it's Whelan, but he replaces the L with a one.
14:09
Uh, senior analyst at Rotowire and a host, of course, at SiriusXM NBA joins us to talk NBA playoffs. It's your time of year, Nick. How you doing, man? I'm doing well, guys. I'm doing well, man.
14:20
This is, this is one of the best sports weekends on the calendar. I, I always say that. And I, I think you have to be pretty in the weeds in the NBA to, to put this on your Mount Rushmore.
14:29
Obviously, there are a lot of other candidates, but the, that opening weekend of the playoffs where you get four games back to back to back to back Saturday, same thing on Sunday.
14:37
Uh, and especially this year, guys, where it, it doesn't feel like we have, you know, that, that series that you just don't wanna pay attention to, right?
14:43
You know, maybe, maybe if the Bulls end up beating the Heat tonight and we get Bulls Celtics in round one, yeah, you could probably skip that one. I, I know a lot of people would point to Cavs-Magic.
14:51
Yeah, maybe it won't be the most exciting series, but I think it's gonna be really competitive. We, we have so much parity in both conferences. So I'm, I'm really, really excited to get these playoffs going.
14:59
Yeah, to your point, I usually say, I mean, the r- the first round is interminable. Do we really need a best of seven? But this comes to our, from our buddy Blake over at sportshodshistory.com.
15:09
He said, "This year there are five first-round NBA series prices where the favorite is less than minus 200. Going back to 1988, the previous most was three series done seven times.
15:21
We still need two more series prices, but this would be the lowest average price for the favorite for a first round on record." So there you go. Wow. Quantifying it there, and obviously he's right.
15:31
We don't have two series prices. Let's start before we get to the ones that are intact. Anything in the elimination games tonight?
15:38
Yeah, I, I got a few spots here, and, and, you know, I think the headliner for both games, unfortunately, is, is the injuries, right? No Jimmy Butler for Miami, and no Zion Williamson for New Orleans.
15:49
So I, I think that makes this a, a more difficult evaluation.
15:52
We'll have to wait and see on Alex Caruso, who th- there seems to be a little bit more optimism that he'll be able to go now, uh, as opposed to, uh, 24 hours ago. But he's gonna end up being a game-time call.
16:02
I think without Jimmy Butler, the Bulls, we have to acknowledge it. They have a real chance here, right? They looked impressive the other night against Atlanta, but I still think I would take Miami to win this game.
16:11
They are one-and-a-half point favorites at home tonight. We have to keep in mind Chicago shot 57% from the field the other night. They got an, an all-time game out of Coby White.
16:20
They had two other starters score 20 plus. They had Ayo Dosunmu have one of his best scoring and efficiency games of the entire season, and it was still a relatively close game, right?
16:28
It's like if Atlanta gets a, a marginally better effort out of Trae Young, there's a chance that they still could have stolen that.
16:33
So I, I do kind of look at Wednesday night as almost a best case scenario for Chicago, and now you're going up against a significantly more difficult opponent on the defensive end especially.
16:42
Mi- Miami was number two in defense over the final 15 games of the regular season. So I do think there might be a course correction coming tonight for the Chicago Bulls.
16:52
On the prop side of things, I like Tyler Herro over three-and-a-half threes. I, I don't know if I'm gonna take his points prop all the way up to 25 and a half. Obviously, he took a ton of shots the other night.
17:01
You remove Jimmy Butler, you think that volume should sustain. Chicago has given up a ton of threes all season long.
17:06
They, they've done a decent job of defending them, but in terms of volume, you know, on the year they've been number one in the NBA in terms of three-point attempts allowed to opponents.
17:13
So I like Herro over three and a half made threes tonight, and I'm also looking at Bam Adebayo over 32 and a half points plus rebounds.
17:21
Wasn't good the other night, uh, against Philly, but this should be a much better matchup for Bam. He went well over this number in both of his matchups against Chicago earlier this season.
17:29
He did miss two of their four games. And keep in mind, guys, these teams have not played each other somehow since mid-December.
17:34
They played four times in the span of less than a month early in the year, so th- there is a little bit of unfamili- fa- unfamiliarity there, I should say. Uh, and then in the, the Pelicans-Kings game,
17:45
I, I, I still think New Orleans has a chance here. We can't completely write them off without Zion, but I think we'll know pretty early, right?
17:50
We're, we're gonna know, all right, is, is the Zion injury just completely taking the wind out of their sails?
17:55
And a lot of it's gonna come down to does Brandon Ingram look remotely like himself, which he did not the other night against the Lakers.
18:01
He did not against the Lakers in game 82 of the regular season when he came back from injury. I'm staying away from Brandon Ingram props. I'm looking at Trey Murphy over three and a half threes.
18:10
You're getting that at plus 100 tonight. He's gone over this number in 12 of his last 25 games, which is pretty good for a part-time starter. And, you know, you're taking Zion Williamson out of the mix.
18:19
He had a 40% usage rate the other night, guys. That was his second highest in any game this season. So there will be shots available for guys like Trey Murphy Toying with the idea of maybe buying low on C.J.
18:30
McCollum after that terrible game on Tuesday. You can get his points prop at 23 and a half tonight.
18:34
It's so tough because he, he looked terrible against the Lakers, but prior to that game, he'd averaged 27 points per game in his last 13.
18:42
And again, you know, you take Zion Williamson out of the mix, you think some of those shots trickle down to C.J. McCollum.
18:47
And lastly, guys, one sneaky spot I'm looking at tonight over at DraftKings, you know, Jonas Valanciunas double double is plus 135.
18:55
Now, if you followed the Pelicans, you know Valanciunas' minutes have been all over the place. You know, they've kind of taken him out of the rotation at times.
19:02
But he played a season high 33 minutes against Sacramento when they met just over a week ago. His most, uh, in any game this season, of course.
19:09
He has a double double in all five match-ups, uh, against the Sacramento Kings this season. And as you know, the Pelicans are 5 and 0 in those match-ups.
19:17
And the Heat, by the way, 13 and 9 straight up without Jimmy Butler this year, should be pointed out as well.
19:23
Uh, normally, Nick, I would, uh, go one by one through each of the six o- uh, series that are intact already and that we know, uh, are starting this weekend.
19:32
Uh, four already, uh, scheduled for tomorrow and two on Sunday. Obviously, that will be filled up on Sunday by the end of tonight.
19:41
W- without, in the interest of time, instead of going one by one, you tell me what your favorite ones are here, either in terms of a series price or in a game one play.
19:51
You know, in terms of series price, guys, uh, the one that I, I feel like I'm starting to zag on a little bit because everybody I, I talked to and, and listened to seems to be, uh, you know, on the Philadelphia 76ers, I'm backing the New York Knicks in round one to win this series.
20:04
It's, it's now minus 110 either way. And, you know, I understand why Philly opened as a favorite, but do we really trust Joel Embiid? I, I'm not sure I do.
20:13
I don't think Joel Embiid looked like himself, uh, the other night i- in that win over Miami. I thought he looked completely winded. He looked completely tired. That knee didn't look quite right in the second half.
20:22
And e- even if you take that concern out of it, guys, at what point in Joel Embiid's career has he ever played remotely close to an MVP level in the post season, right?
20:31
I think it was two years ago, he averaged like 10 fewer points per game in the post season compared to the regular season.
20:36
I think the way that officiating has changed throughout the season, I don't think that benefits Joel Embiid.
20:40
I think he's still gonna get more calls than anybody, but he's not gonna get the same type of calls he was when he was at his peak and healthy earlier this year. I know there's no Julius Randle for the New York Knicks.
20:50
I don't know if that's that big of a deal, especially in round one.
20:52
It's like, yeah, maybe that, that hurts their ceiling a little bit, but they've been just fine without Julius Randle, who also, by the way, has not been a very good playoff performer throughout his career.
21:01
So I know everybody just wants to say, "All right, Philly, they're, they're a dangerous seven seed. They, you know, they're, they're probably more like a two or a three seed at heart."
21:07
I think the Knicks win this series, guys. What were you just telling me off air?
21:11
That I don't think there are, I, I don't think there are enough people in the NBA community and even betting community making enough of what they saw out of Joel Embiid the other night. Yeah.
21:20
And Nick, I completely agree with you. I mean, I've got 76ers futures in pocket, but I am loaded up pretty heavy on the Knicks side in game one.
21:27
Um, and maybe Joel Embiid returns, you know, gets back to form middle of the series. I could see that happening.
21:33
Uh, as of right now, though, and we're heading into game one, I c- completely co-sign everything you just said. Well, the other thing with Philly, guys, is they don't really have a third option, right?
21:42
I mean, I, I guess it's supposed to be Tobias Harris, but he was terrible the other night, right? It's like De'Anthony Melton- Yeah... 's been banged up. He's just not really a part of the mix right now.
21:50
They got bailed out by Nick Batum. Like, they don't win that game u- unless Nick Batum plays the way he did the other night against Miami. And, and the Heat didn't even play well, right?
21:57
It's like Philly was a- I think in a lot of ways lucky to win that game, and y- you just, you can't depend on Nick Batum to be your third guy in a series like this.
22:04
And, you know, the Knicks don't have a ton of depth, but I don't think that matters in the playoffs. They're, they're really gonna play six, six and a half guys w- who play really well together.
22:11
So I'm, I, I think people are gonna be surprised when the New York Knicks get off to a good start in this series. I need a five-second answer, Nick. Who's in the finals? I'm gonna cop out and say Denver, Boston, guys.
22:22
Oh. But Dallas is the team that I'm keeping an eye on to knock them off. That seems to be very consensus NBA expert thought right there. Thank you, Nick. Appreciate it. Great seeing you, man. Hey, anytime, guys.
22:31
Enjoy the weekend. Nick Whelan from Roto Wire. How about some UFL next with our own Stormy Bonatony. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do.
22:44
It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV.
22:57
However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D, brought to you by DraftKings.
23:04
Uh, still to come this hour, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke, Frank Schwab from Yahoo on the NFL draft, and our own Stormy Bonatony in moments talking UFL. Yeah.
23:13
I don't know if you know this, but the XFL and the USFL, they got together and they said, "Let's merge." I did know that. Yeah. Um, I didn't know they were sticking with conferences, though.
23:20
Like, isn't one conference the XFL Conference and one, one the, uh, USFL Conference? Maybe s- And you're making a face now like I'm making that up. No, no, no, you're completely right. Oh, okay. All right. Well, then.
23:28
Stormy will clarify that for us. I, like, th- that doesn't feel very unified to me, right? If you were gonna unify- It's a good point. Well-... you, you shouldn't keep yourself separated like that. No, very good point.
23:38
We get tweets, Master of Puppets. "Hey, Gil, great idea here. You let me buy into your Cleveland play. If it wins, you share the sushi spot. If it were to lose, I'll pay half your bet."
23:47
[laughs] Oh, I see what he did there. [laughs] Steven Vegas, "Last year I won the same March APEL bet with the Rays, who if you, uh, recall, started 13 and 0. I got them at 14 to 1.
23:55
Turned out to be fairly easy, except for the Pirates, who shockingly kept pace. This year is much more of a sweat. Let's get it." You got it, man.
24:03
And then, uh, Chance Copper Pot said, "It's Friday morning and I'm trying to decide what's better this weekend, Taylor Swift dropping a double album or Kelly perfectly referencing Mac on All With Sunny in Philadelphia.
24:14
I'm going with Kelly. Insulin and chimichangas, baby." Boom. Let's go. Kelly Bidlin down 28 lbs. And A Brown, uh, "I envision the next," this is such great Numbers Game knowledge right here.
24:25
"I envision the next Wegovy commercial- Starring an ecstatic Kelly Bidlin dancing down the strip, singing the praises of the little pill. Imagine the escalator backups filming would cause as he sashays- [laughs]...
24:37
across the pedestrian overpass. So many little nuggets in there. Then James and Miles can tell me I'm overacting the entire time.
24:43
Ladies and gentlemen, she is the co-host of The Lombardi Line, along with the great Michael Lombardi, and of course, sideline reporter for the UFL. Uh, the world is just keeping her down.
24:53
The sky is the limit, and it will happen. It's our own Stormy Bonatony. How you doing, Stormy? Courtesy, by the way, of Progressive Guest Line. I'm great. How you doing? I appreciate you guys. This is, this is so fun.
25:03
Like, I'll just sit here and listen to you guys go back and forth. This is great. [laughs] Um, let's... So can we get a sense of your schedule? Do you, do you travel every Friday to do this?
25:14
Yeah, that's what I'm doing right now. Uh, travel every Friday, or if my game is, like, a Sunday night, which I've had a couple of those so far, then I'll leave on Saturday.
25:22
But pretty much, yeah, I do Monday through Friday on The Lombardi Line, and then I'll head out Friday afternoon, Friday evening, for whatever city that I'm randomly sent to.
25:32
So it's, it's nice that I can actually get the full Monday through Friday versus college football season, where the games can be Saturday morning, let's say, and I have in-person meetings on Fridays.
25:43
So then I have to come back from my Saturday game and work a 7:00 AM Sunday morning show. So this schedule's actually way easier than college football. Wow. Um, it's just us talking here, Stormy. Nobody's listening.
25:52
Um, do you get tired of the travel? I think that because I have scoliosis, my back gets tired of sitting in plane seats all the time. But no, the travel itself, not at all.
26:02
I, I actually really enjoy it, and I love that at Vsain we have the little combination of I get to do the studio work and I get to have fun in a home base, and then I get to explore some new cities on the weekend.
26:13
All right. So let's talk some UFL. First of all, Kelly's right, right? One division is USFL and one's XFL. Correct. Yes.
26:20
Although, I do think it's a little bit criminal that in the USFL conference they still have the Houston Roughnecks instead of maintaining the USFL Houston Gamblers, considering that the UFL does prioritize that we include talking about gambling in our broadcast, and that's something that they like to use to sell the league, that just a real missed opportunity there in my brain.
26:41
Yeah. Agreed. Yeah. Yeah. But now you get to go, "Gotta watch out, gotta get a Roughneck." [laughs] Do you know about that? What do you know about that? Nothing? Okay. Um, but you're right. The Houston Gamblers.
26:50
'Cause they did keep Michigan Panthers. Mm-hmm. And they did keep Birmingham Stallions, right? Yeah. So why they decided to go different on that, that's interesting. A- and you have, you...
27:00
To what extent have you, Stormy, personally sort of nudged them towards gambling?
27:07
Honestly, I think a big reason why I was selected for the project is because they view it as something that's important and something that they wanna grow and something they hope can help get more eyeballs on the product.
27:18
Because obviously it's not the NFL, it's not college football. It's a different entity. It's a different thing.
27:24
And they have to have their different things that they can include in the league to get more people interested and invested in it. And I love being a part of it. You guys know I geek out about it. Yeah.
27:34
Talking about live betting opportunities throughout the broadcast is something I can honestly say I never imagined doing on a national football broadcast, but here we are.
27:43
And I, I love every second of it, and it's been fun for me to kind of share that knowledge with a lot of the people on my crew specifically that aren't usually accustomed to that. Okay.
27:52
So for the uninitiated, we're three games into a 10-game schedule.
27:56
And before we get into your thoughts on the futures market and the games this weekend, um, what is a rule difference between this and the NFL that a person landing on it this weekend will be like, "Oh, that's kind of cool"?
28:09
Uh, well, considering that the Eagles have submitted an application at the owners meetings to have a fourth and 20 in the game instead of a, a converted onside kick, we have a fourth and 12.
28:21
I do think that it was a little bit better personally last year when they had it be a fourth and 15.
28:26
I think that the fourth and 12 is maybe a touch too easy, as we've seen two attempts so far, and both of them have been successful and led to that team winning, which is interesting, right?
28:35
Because these games are never really over until they're over because of that opportunity. That's one that definitely stands out, and the point after touchdown is a really big one, too. They don't kick extra point.
28:47
There's no PATs like that. You can go for one, you can go for two points, or you can go from three points out. Yeah. Which for us from a betting perspective, too, is really different.
28:55
We don't have key numbers like we're used to seeing in the NFL. You're not, like, doing a teaser and you're like, "I really need to get through the seven or get through the three."
29:02
We don't have enough sample size of what those numbers might be at this point. And because the scoring structure's a little bit different, it's a little more free-flowing. I love that extra point rule.
29:11
You may remember this, Kelly, from a couple years ago. Uh, Stevie Luckbach Fezzik won a bet- Yeah... because a team converted a nine-point, you know, play basically with a three-point, uh, extra point.
29:22
Um, and of course we're like, "Ah, the old nine-point comeback- [laughs] The old nine-pointer... of course on the final possession." Okay, so let's go to- Well, well hold on, hold on, guys.
29:30
I lost a bet last week- Yeah... because the team that I bet in Arlington was up 10 with two minutes to go.
29:36
The DC Defenders score, they convert a two-point conversion, they get the fourth and 12 and kick a walk-off field goal to win the game, and I lose Arlington money line by one because of that in two minutes.
29:48
I'm losing my mind. Oh. [laughs] Do you throw a tantrum on air, Stormy? 'Cause this is what we would tune in for. Do you throw a tantrum on air when that happens? Fortunately, that was not my game. Oh.
29:58
So I reined it in professionally- Okay... for my own game. But at, at my hotel room the night before, yes, I was- [laughs] There were a lot of expletives being thrown. [laughs] Okay, so the futures market.
30:07
Birmingham, which is the only undefeated team through three games. They're 3-0. The Birmingham Stallions, they're plus 140. They're the short shot to win this. Uh, St. Louis Battlehawks are, uh, 2-1.
30:18
They are plus 250, all the way down to the Roughnecks, who are 35 to 1. They are the long shot. Is there value here on any team? Uh, I think that there could be a number of places.
30:28
I will say this is probably the last week that you're gonna see a plus money price on Birmingham. They're, they're the two-time defending USFL champions. You mentioned 3-0 straight up, ATS.
30:39
All three of their games have been won by seven or more points, two of them by 13 or more. They're just-... looking like a juggernaut. I joked the other day, I was like, "I think they're Scottie Scheffler.
30:48
Just price them at whatever because you can, because they're just gonna keep winning." They're ridiculous, and they've got it together.
30:56
As far as, like, other teams on the board, I think that some of these odds are a little bit misleading. Like, the BattleHawks are two and one, but are they really that good? I don't know. A.J.
31:06
McCarron and that offense, when they're clicking, they're pretty solid, but defensively there's really not a whole lot there. The Defenders were the best team in the XFL a year ago, and they have looked completely off.
31:18
They should have lost that game to Arlington. They were out-gained by, like, 160 yards, and, uh, I, I don't need to rehash what happened in the last two minutes.
31:26
But, like, a lot of these teams that are at the top of the odds board, I don't have a ton of faith in really being a team that is the team to beat per se. So I have no problem looking a little bit farther down.
31:37
And I know Arlington's O and three, but 22 to one, I wouldn't mind a little bit of a sprinkle on that, because there's- Oh... a lot of runway left here this season, honestly. Little sprinkle on the Arlington Renegades.
31:49
Just a sprinkle. Just a sprinkle. But, I mean, Birmingham, like I said, plus 140. I, I, I don't know if, how long they're gonna be a plus money price 'cause they're just gonna barrel through this league.
31:57
Yeah, I was watching a bit of them last week. They have, uh, they're rolling with the old dual quarterback system, right, Stormy, of Adrian Martinez and Matt Corral, uh, on the team.
32:05
I was like, "Hey, those are two names I recognize," and they're g- Wow... they're both pretty good. Yeah. So yeah, they're, they're, they l- they look strong. Okay. I would say that. Yeah.
32:11
Adrian Martinez had like 400 total yards the other day, and then they're gonna shake things up and I think start Matt Corral this week, at least based on the depth chart I saw come out. They're that good.
32:20
They can just do that. So guys we recognize- Yeah. Mm-hmm... playing quarterback in the UFL. All right. So let's talk about a few of the games this weekend. We have three tomorrow, one on Sunday. Um, St.
32:30
Louis, the aforementioned BattleHawks, six and a half point favorites against the Memphis Showboats, another carryover name from past football leagues.
32:37
Uh, the Stallions, nine and a half point favorites over The Defenders at home. Michigan is a one-point favorite at San Antonio, the Brahmas of San Antonio. And then Sunday, uh, the Renegades and the Roughnecks.
32:50
Oh, something's gotta give at the bottom of the UFL. The Renegades are two and a half point favorites. Any thoughts on any of these?
32:58
Uh, I love the Renegades, as you can tell by everything that I've said throughout the course [laughs] of this conversation.
33:03
Those teams are both O and three, but not created equal, so I have no problem laying the two and a half with the Renegades there. I think the Roughnecks are the worst team in the league.
33:10
Uh, I do lean the Panthers plus the one or money line in San Antonio.
33:16
The, the Brahmas, their starting quarterback, Chase Garbers, who led the league in compl- completion percentage touchdown passes, he was injured last week. He's not gonna be available largely the rest of the season.
33:26
So I think this could be a good bounce back spot for Michigan. Um, Birmingham's got bet up too much for me. It was... It's opened eight, and now you just said nine and a half.
33:36
But guys, in the NFL postseason, I was crushing it with same game teasers, and I know that those are frowned upon, teasing totals and whatnot, but I would not hate a same game teaser in Defenders Birmingham.
33:48
Bring the Stallions down and go over 40, 40 and a half, whatever the number would be there. Um, same game teaser on Defenders and Stallions. I'm all in. Does "I would not hate" mean you would bet it?
33:58
Is that what that means? Yes. Okay. Yes. But, but the, the, you know, that's saying the quiet thing out loud. Gotcha. So. Totally understand. Try to bring that in. [laughs] Stormy, we, we appreciate you making the time.
34:07
Thank you so much. Thank you, guys. Appreciate you. Have a great day. Stormy Bonne. Tony, you too.
34:12
Uh, she of course the co-host of Lombardi Line every weekday here at the network at 1:00 PM with Michael Lombardi, and of course, she does the UFL sidelines.
34:20
You know how I always say Ben Wilson is gonna be the most famous pl- uh, person ever at VSiN? Stormy is already the most famous person at VSiN. Not, not if he keeps golfing with Nick all the time. That's true.
34:29
That's true. We'll come back, NFL Draft next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. You know what I do every morning, Kelly? I, uh, wake up and I go to vsin.com just to see what's up there.
34:47
That's a great place to start your day. 'Cause it's beautiful. Uh, Adam Burke, uh, who of course does everything on the website, he's talking NHL playoffs first round series previews and predictions. How about that?
34:59
Skating tripod. [laughs] That's right. [laughs] That's, uh, his Twitter handle. You're right. It's tripods plural, by the way. Uh, NHL playoff betting concepts with Steve Makinen, so a real primer on the NHL.
35:12
And of course, the same for the NBA, uh, first round series betting trends from Steve Makinen, also JBT's thoughts, Zach Cohen on the NBA. Everybody's in on the NBA. Uh, check it out at vsin.com.
35:24
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides, it's all there on the website. Uh, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bilin. Uh, you know what's starting to bother me?
35:34
I don't know if I've said this on the air before. Certain things with the English language... Well, first of all, let me just say this.
35:38
As it's coming out of my mouth, I'm like, "No one likes an English teacher," so already I've- Whoa, no, please continue-... already full regret... because I, I tweeted one out yesterday and- Oh, you did?...
35:46
I don't know the difference between... It, it was, it, we... And I got a couple of these responses. It's basically the elevation, a- altitude things- Right... where it's like nobody even really cares that much anymore.
35:55
No one cares. No one cares. We're like, okay, so I'm watching RBC Heritage and they've got a sound. Oh, that's right. And I'm like, "Well, what's the difference between a bay and a sound?"
36:03
And then I go and Google it, and I'm like, "Well, now there's four other words that I've never even heard before." A fjord and a bight. Yeah, yeah. That was- Yes. [laughs]...
36:09
when I sent it to you, and I'm like, "I-" That's great. Like, I, w- do we really need like a fifth definition to the word sound? My thing is, you know, like, people who instead of saying supposedly, they say supposably.
36:20
Mm-hmm. Or people instead of saying forward, say foward, right? Like, stuff like that bothers me. So the latest one like that is when did we all decide that the word important is pronounced with a D, important?
36:33
Have you noticed that? Everybody pronounces it that way now. I did not get the memo. I have noticed that. [laughs] It's very important. Seriously, keep an eye out for it. All right.
36:42
Ladies and gentlemen, he has no such English problems. He just wants to talk NFL draft with us. From Yahoo, it's Frank Schwab, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Frank?
36:51
I, I just wanna hear you yell at the clouds more, Gil. [laughs] Like, that, that was impressive. You... Okay, Boomer. I, I'm a Boomer, but that took the cake. I am not a Boomer.
37:00
Just for definition's sake, I am not a Boomer. Get off his lawn, though. That's right. I am, I am a Larry David get off my, get off my lawn kinda guy. Um, okay.
37:08
Let us begin with, I wanna start with two questions on the NFL Draft. The first is the question that I ask everybody, which is, what do you think you know for sure? Let's start there. Nothing. Like, I, I really like...
37:19
Okay, Caleb's going number one. Uh, we knew that. We went through our phase earlier this off-season where it's like, Drake Maye might be number one. No, no, it's always been Caleb.
37:27
But after that, I don't even know what the Commanders do at number two. I wonder your thoughts on that, because, uh, being a Washington fan, I, I just wonder what you think they should do, what they will do.
37:37
Because you hear smoke coming out of e- everywhere. It's like, Drake Maye's suddenly g- getting trashed. What's that all about?
37:43
He's really the only quarterback, as my coworker Charles McDonald pointed out, he's the only quarterback getting any criticism this draft cycle. So I wonder if that's completely all smoke with Drake Maye.
37:52
You hear some J.J. McCarthy stuff, uh, that Washington might have him as their quarterback, too, on their board. Obviously Jayden Daniels, heck of a player.
37:59
I don't know what Washington's gonna do at number two, so how can I be confident about anything else?
38:04
I will say the one thing I am confident with, this will set o- obviously a record for offensive players in the first round. It's 19. I think it could blow pa- past that, too.
38:13
You see 21 and a half out there for offensive players. I think we could get to, like, 24. You start doing the math, 12 offensive linemen could go in the first round. I think six quarterbacks could go in the first round.
38:22
Ooh. We all know about the receivers. One of the tight ends. Like, I, I mean, it...
38:26
You just start doing the math on the offensive side, and then you start doing the math on the defensive side, you say, I, I think 21 and a half, uh, over that, it, it sounds pretty good to me as far as taking the offensive players.
38:37
By the way, I started the show with a Jayden Daniels, Washington, uh, Commodores talk, which is, I just don't- Yeah... I didn't understand the betting movement.
38:45
I mean, I understand the elements that created it supposedly, right?
38:50
Um, I won't go through it again, but I bet this morning, I bet Jayden Daniels minus 125 to go number two, because I think in the end, the ultimate piece that most people aren't saying, which I just th- think is a human thing, which is, I think Adam Peters in his head, even if he doesn't say it out loud, is gonna be like, "If I fail here, better to fail with Jayden Daniels than to fail with Drake Maye."
39:12
Uh, a- and I agree with that. It's, it's kind of, it, it's, it sounds weird to say, but it's a safe pick. He's the Heisman guy. Yeah. He's, he's obviously electric. And you know what? Somebody...
39:21
I, I was out in New Orleans a, a few weeks ago a- and I was posed the question of, "Why do we think Caleb Williams is that much better than Jayden Daniels?" And honestly, I didn't have a great answer.
39:29
Like, if you look at it, like, Caleb's awesome, uh, obviously, but Jayden was great last year. I mean, you talk about a guy, had what, 40-some touchdowns total. He can, he can run it.
39:38
He, he obviously makes great plays in the passing game. He's accurate. I, I like everything about Jayden Daniels. I think he's a very, very good player. I, I worry a little bit about him getting hurt.
39:46
Uh, and maybe I'm shook a little bit by Anthony Richardson getting knocked out of every game and, and he's more of a slender guy than Anthony, obviously.
39:52
But, uh, I mean, the, there's that piece of it when it comes to Jayden Daniels. But as a player, there's not much to nitpick there. He, he is a heck of a player, heck of an athlete.
40:01
I think he's gonna be a good quarterback in this league. But you know, so not all these guys are gonna hit, and it's hard to, uh, you know, pick and choose and say, "Oh, that guy's gonna bust."
40:08
You just do the best you can if you're Adam Peters, and I, I do think- Yeah... the best they could do is take a Jayden Daniels number two. Yeah, there's no talent evaluation in what I'm talking about.
40:17
I'm just talking about what I think he'll do draft-wise. Right. And I think that's the way to go. Let, let's go back to what you were saying about quarterbacks, though.
40:23
Uh, 'cause I think you're right, like, it's gonna be a big offensive draft, uh, certainly up at the top. But what is, what are you hearing now?
40:31
Like, if, if I put it to you right now and I said, "You must decide what's gonna happen, Frank, with the quarterbacks beyond May." So where does J.J. McCarthy end up? Will either Bo Nix or Michael Penix...
40:45
The big thing for bettors, obviously, is that prop at four and a half with quarterbacks. Will Penix and/or Nix actually go in the first round? What's your instinct?
40:55
Uh, y- absolutely yes, because you look at the teams that need a quarterback, and you have the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders all sitting out there, right? And we all know a quarterback's going with the top three picks.
41:05
Like, that, that's going to happen. And then you get McCarthy's gonna go somewhere, too, i- in the top, mm, 10, probably five. I think the Vikings move up. There's a reason they got that extra first-round pick.
41:14
We all know. It's, it's not a big secret. I think the Vikings move up either to four or to five. They get J.J. McCarthy, and then a game of chicken starts. Do the Broncos really like Bo Nix?
41:23
Where, where does Michael Penix go? I was surprised to see the odds that Penix is now thought of ahead of Nix. I, I, I've always thought Nix would go ahead of Penix. I actually punched a ticket on that.
41:32
I think, I think Nix is just a better pro prospect. We'll see. We'll see if I'm wrong there.
41:36
But I do think, I think six quarterbacks go in the first round just because of the needs, the desperation, and the fifth year option, too. We talk about this every year.
41:44
There's such a value, especially with quarterback salaries, of having that fifth year option.
41:49
If you are a team that needs a quarterback and one of those picks late in the round, uh, Kansas City at 32, whatever, where- wherever we're talking about, you say, "If we can move up from a early pick in the second round to the last pick of the first round, grab a quarterback, we have the fifth year of opt, uh, of contract control."
42:05
We've seen with Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It's important to have that from a first-round pick.
42:11
You'd rather have that than a guy from the second, third round where you only get four years and then you gotta play the franchise tag game.
42:15
So I do think that, uh, the, the prop on quarterbacks goes over just because of the desperation at the position with some of these teams. Hmm. Interesting. Okay.
42:23
Well, for, for my bet's sake, 'cause I went under, I hope you're, I hope you're mistaken, but, uh, this is why I wanna get different perspectives on this. And it could be w- Gil, we know nothing. We all know. Yeah.
42:31
We know nothing about this. Like, draft surprises us every single year. I'm just leaning into the whole idea that the Broncos and Raiders, well, what are you gonna do?
42:39
You gonna say Jared Stidham and Aidan O'Connell are starters opening day? No. You wanna sell your fans on something better than that. Handicap this for me as best as you can.
42:47
So let's say, um, Caleb Williams goes to Chicago, Jayden Daniels goes to Washington.
42:54
You have New England at three- You have Arizona at four and you have Los Angeles Chargers at five, all of which have been rumored at different times by different people to consider trades, right?
43:05
The Patriots, maybe they don't like Drake May, maybe they trade and they do what you just said, which is get a quarterback early second round 'cause they have, uh, one of the top picks in the second round obviously too.
43:16
Um, obviously Arizona, who, you know, most mock drafts have them staring Marvin Harrison Jr. in the face, but maybe they're open for business. Some have said they are.
43:26
Chargers, even though Jim Harbaugh out loud has said, "We wanna start with a, you know, a solid franchise offensive lineman that can be here for a decade plus," but many a mock has them trading out to a Minnesota or some other quarterback hungry team.
43:41
Which of those three is the most likely in your opinion to stand pat? Which is the most likely to make a trade? I, I think the Patriots are, are taking a quarterback. I, I don't see how you don't. Like I, I...
43:53
You gotta talk yourse- I, I don't wanna say talk yourself into 'cause that's bad, but Drake May is a good prospect in my mind. Even J.J. McCarthy brings some t- things to the table.
44:01
I don't know how the Patriots trade out. I know they need a lot of guys. They're, they're very talent poor right now, but just start with a quarterback. I think I, I, I'd be shocked if they move out of three.
44:09
It, it could happen, I suppose. I wouldn't do it. I'd take a quarterback at three 'cause you don't wanna be on that hamster wheel forever. Where it gets interesting to me is four.
44:17
I'm sorry, I'd go trade the Marvin Harrison pick. I, I... If I'm Arizona, I'm not... Yeah, you can get an extra first round pick out of Minnesota, whatever. Nope, Marvin Harrison to me is a gold jacket type of prospect.
44:28
Like I love him. I think he is as good of a receiver as I've ever seen in college. I'd draft him and I just, uh, that, that's good. I, I feel great about my draft. But they could trade down.
44:37
I think they're gonna be enticed by that extra first round pick Minnesota's dangling out there. And then I think that why wouldn't the Chargers trade down? If, if it gets to a point where J.J.
44:45
McCarthy's out there and the Vikings or Broncos, maybe even the Raiders are on a phone with you saying, "Let's trade down," the Chargers need dudes. Like they really do.
44:53
I know Joe Alt is a really, really good tackle and fits their need, but w- why if you're the Chargers would you not trade down? So I think the most likely to trade down is the Chargers. Least likely is the Patriots.
45:02
And I don't know what the Cardinals are gonna do. But me personally, I draft Marvin Harrison 'cause I think he is phenomenal. Who's the second wide out? One name answer. Second wide out drafted behind him will be?
45:12
Nabers. I just think his play making is just there for him. Okay. Frank Schwab from Yahoo Sports, always a pleasure. Thank you, Frank. Appreciate it, guys. NFL draft six days away. Next Thursday, first round.
45:24
Cannot wait. Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
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