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Apr 21, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | April 21, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | April 21, 2026
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41:40
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Oh, this sounds like a, uh, Kelly Bidlack contest right here. The Sharps Invitational is a season-long NFL bankroll tournament.
0:17
Think poker meets football. Here's what you do. You start with 10,000 chips. Okay. Put them to work on spreads, totals, parlays, and even props. NFL week one through the Super Bowl.
0:26
Stack your chips, climb the leaderboard, compete for real money. Three tiers, three champs, three prize pools worth playing for. Sign up today at jointhesharps.com. That's jointhesharps.com. Like it.
0:38
Scan that QR code for more. Where poker meets football. Where poker meets football. Uh, we get tweets to beat of the book.
0:45
I just wanna- I got a correction here, and, and Scott, New York, Best Success is absolutely right. I, I made the mistake of saying there was a two-point margin at the half of the Denver game.
0:52
Of course it wasn't, 'cause Jamal Murray hit that three-quarter court shot. Mm-hmm. Um, or half court-ish. Whatever it was. Somewhere there. It was, like, half court. Yeah. Yeah. Tied it at 64.
1:02
64-64 at the half of that game. Uh, I, I beg your pardon on that. My apologies. Uh, let's see. Jim Campbell, "Kelly, you don't have any golf bets for the Swamp Blogger Classic in New Orleans? Yeah, me neither," he says.
1:15
Yeah, we were just talking about it with Jake. Uh, Fair Hay, Matt and Wes got you on long shots today. I'm taking a week off. This is, uh, this is usually a good week to take off.
1:22
See, you've, you've been working too hard, man. I've been working too hard. You should take a- Yes. That's right. Dell Bythegapradio, "Fishy. Flyers minus 150, game three up two to nothing," [laughs] he says.
1:31
By the way, with an algae, I can't go... [laughs] It's very difficult, 'cause I can't breathe. Um, and on and on with, with the, uh, with the tweets.
1:40
We'll, we'll get to Jake Hahn, though, first, because we gotta talk some hockey. Jake Hahn now joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at JJakeHahn4. That's H-A-H-N.
1:49
Co-host on The Point, The Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM, NHL co-host of NHL Fantasy on Ice podcast as well. Jake joins us now from the great white north, although not so white now. How you doing, Jake?
2:00
[laughs] I'm doing great, guys. Good to join you this week, and, uh, obviously lots going on with the NHL playoffs here. I heard you talking about the NBA playoffs as well.
2:08
I've been dabbling a little bit there, but obviously the focus for me on the Stanley Cup playoffs. And, uh, like Kelly, this is the week I take off for golf.
2:16
Unless I get tempted into somebody by Wednesday night, you know, one of these teams that maybe catches my eye a little bit, I'll, I'll, I'll dive in, but especially with the playoffs going on, my, my focus is there.
2:25
So it's a nice week to take off of golf, and we've got a lot of big tournaments coming up. Team golf doesn't excite you, Jake? Is that what you're, is that what you're- [laughs] You getting at?
2:32
I, I don't mind the change of pace, guys, to be honest. I know they're doing some things with the p- PGA schedule moving forward. I saw Hawaii, unfortunately- Mm. Yes... is off the, off the schedule for next year.
2:42
I, I loved watching Hawaii up here in Canada. It's cold in January and I get to watch a little Hawaii golf, so I'm personally gonna miss that. But I like the change of pace, team golf. I loved match play.
2:52
I was a little upset when they took that away. I, I get that the final can be tough to watch at the end with only, you know, two guys playing golf, but I love the match play format.
3:00
So, uh, there's things I miss about the, the, the schedule, and I don't mind mixing it up from time to time. So I'm okay taking a week off here, um, in terms of, uh, of golf betting.
3:09
And again, maybe if, uh, somebody jumps out to me. It is a pretty nice course, though. Yeah. I actually like the course. I wouldn't mind if they played it, um, as a single stroke play event.
3:18
But, uh, yeah, the team event just doesn't get me going as much as some of the other skill.
3:22
I just, I just think with what Jake's saying there, right there though, it is the, with, with the schedule changes that are coming, that is such a reflection of what the golf, golf fan and golf bettor.
3:31
I mean, if we, the people like us who bet it every week, you're expecting us to watch every week. Okay, you're talking about 40 whatever events it is during the course of a season.
3:39
It's a lot, and then when we're just handicapping individual stroke play, you mix up to a team event, this makes it an easy week to take off. And if you're a sports league, you don't want people thinking that way.
3:50
So understand why they're gonna change the schedule up. What, uh, yeah, PGA Tour will not be in Hawaii in 2027 for the first time in 56 years. Yeah.
3:58
And- And ex- and expected that we're gonna get a much more, uh, shorter schedule. Okay. Overall. All right. Uh, to the National Hockey League. I wasn't gonna start with this game, but since we have the board up, I will.
4:08
Uh, the Flyers take a two to nothing lead on the Penguins in their best of seven first round series. They do so at Pittsburgh, so Philly with a chance to close it out with two games at home.
4:21
I believe Toddy Wishnow, my buddy, was at this game, and when it, once it was one to nothing yesterday, he was like, "It's over. Penguin season's over." How do you see it, Jake? I see it kinda similar.
4:31
Maybe not as quickly as, as he did last night at one-nothing in that game. I'd still give the Penguins a chance to come back at, uh, one-nothing in a hockey game.
4:38
But at two-nothing in this series, going back to Philly now, I love the Flyers in this series, guys. They were my favorite underdog pre-series price of any of these teams going in.
4:48
I do have a touch of bias here, because I do have a, a, a really good friend on the Flyers, uh, so obviously I'm rooting for them. But all bias aside, I genuinely loved how they were playing coming into this series.
4:58
They were one of the best teams in the NHL the last month. Now, Pittsburgh's been a great story all year, but Philly's commitment to defense, Rick Tocchet has this team playing a really tight style.
5:07
Uh, they're getting the goaltending from Vladar as well, and Porter Martone, this kid coming straight from college, injected into an NHL playoff race, injected into NHL playoff games, and he scored in both games.
5:17
One, uh, actually both of them beauties, but, uh, particularly the, the goal in game one was real nice, crossbar and in. And I continue to play the Porter Martone, uh, point prop here. So I'm gonna play that every game.
5:26
They s- they're still sitting it at plus money. If it's plus money again for the next game, I would be a little bit surprised, but I'm just gonna keep playing it almost regardless of odds at this point.
5:35
And, uh, Pittsburgh might have a bit of a push back here, guys, but I, I think this is Philly's series. All right. And no interest at the plus 310 on the Flyers adjusted series price?
5:43
I, I, look, I, at this point I'm sticking with my Flyers pre-series bet. I, I, like I said, I do think that the, the Penguins will have a punch. This is a team led by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin.
5:53
They, they've got a lot of great veteran players. They're not just going to roll over and let the Flyers sweep them in this series. But I j- I just think Philly is the better, more complete team at this point.
6:02
And, you know, maybe the long season's getting to those old, uh, tired legs in Pittsburgh a little bit, and, uh, Philly just seems a lot fresher at this point. Yeah. Uh, let's go back to a f- another game from yesterday.
6:12
This was the first of the, this was actually the only game one of the yes- of yesterday's games. The Oilers and the Ducks, a tale of three periods. Oilers scored twice in the first.
6:23
Ducks come story back in the second with three to take the lead, and then the Oilers score twice in the third to win this one, uh, four to three.
6:32
They do so with, uh, under two minutes to play, uh, with, uh, Kasper, uh, Kasper Kapanen scoring his second goal of the night for the, the eventual game winner here with, uh, 1:56 left, I believe it was.
6:45
Um, and w- the Oilers take the one to nothing lead over the Ducks in that best of seven series. Any interest in the Ducks at plus 160 down a game?
6:55
I, I do believe looking at game two, I might have some interest in Anaheim on the money line here, guys. I think they showed me enough that they could win some games in this series.
7:03
Last night was just a classic Oilers game. They kinda play with their food a little bit. They actually dominated the first period, probably should've won the game easily, then they let Anaheim back in it.
7:12
And like we've watched a lot from the Oilers this year, they're chasing the game in the third period. They're down a goal, sometimes two goals, but they have the ability to come back and win those games.
7:20
So the, honestly, the Oilers are a great in-game live bet.
7:23
If you're watching the game and you see Edmonton down a goal or down even a couple goals, you could probably grab decent numbers on the Oilers throughout these po- uh, this postseason, because it's not gonna really ever look perfect for them.
7:34
Uh, they don't tend to start games all that well, even though they did have a good first period last night, and just kinda your classic Oilers comeback type win.
7:42
And if you told Anaheim you'd, you'd hold Connor McDavid off the score sheet- Yeah... you'd probably feel like you had a real good chance to win that game, no points for McDavid.
7:48
He was minus 700 for a point last night, guys, and obviously didn't hit the score sheet. Leon Draisaitl did return, though, and get two points in that game, so I think nice for the, for the Oilers to have Leon back.
7:58
I think Edmonton has no problem winning that series, guys, but I do feel like you could probably jump in on Anaheim a, a game or two throughout it.
8:05
Uh, this is the, uh, by the way, Dra- yeah, Draisaitl with two assists, by the way, doing Draisaitl things yesterday as well. This is the only series that's knotted up at one a piece now.
8:12
Wild crushed the Stars at game one six to one. Stars come back, win it last night four to two. Where do you stand on this series? I still really like Minnesota in this series, guys. I like them coming in. It's one-one.
8:24
They took a game in Dallas. I think I would say mission accomplished. Obviously they would like to take both, and I thought they had their chances last night.
8:31
They were, to me, the better team through 40 minutes of that hockey game, and Jake Oettinger, who was really not good at all in game one between the pipes for Dallas, was much, much better in game two.
8:41
So credit to Oettinger. He bounced back.
8:43
He is one of the better goaltenders when he's on in the National Hockey League, and a lot of what Dallas is hoping to accomplish this year is gonna have to come on the back of Jake Oettinger.
8:51
So bad at game one, much better in game two, and, you know, Dallas' top players stepped up, scored some big ro- big goals, including Jason Robertson. So I, I figured there was gonna be a pushback.
9:01
Dallas wasn't gonna lose both games on home ice.
9:03
Wasn't shocked by the result last night, but I, I would still say Minnesota's been the better team through two games in that series, and I'll be looking to back them as the series now shifts to Minnesota.
9:12
Trying to break a very long streak here, guys, of, uh, first round exits for the Minnesota Wild franchise. They're, they're due for one. Hope m- maybe this is finally the year they get one. Maybe this is the year.
9:21
The, uh, the one we left out, the remaining one from last night, the Hurricanes take a two to nothing lead over Ottawa. Took 'em two overtimes to get that second win last night, but they
9:32
s- hold serve on their home ice two to nothing. By the way, now the, uh, Senators, Ottawa is plus 450 on the adjusted series price.
9:40
I might need an entire hour on my show today, guys, to break down what happened in this hockey game. [laughs] It was just absolutely wild. Carolina won the game, and we go to a, an offside review.
9:51
I think a th- at least 1,000 people left the building thinking the game was over, and I don't think they came back, because there's a lot of empty seats the rest of the overtime, ul- ultimately into double overtime.
10:00
So I think some, some Canes fans probably driving home and realizing, wait, the game is still on? And ultimately, Carolina did still win, uh, so the result remains the same. Canes up two-nothing in this series. I, I...
10:12
Look, I'm heavy Canes on this series, heavy Canes in terms of, uh, possibly winning the Cup this year and, and going on that deep run, so I'm not shocked they're up two-nothing.
10:20
I- Ottawa did impress me at times throughout these couple of games. Linus Ullmark to me looked really good between the pipes.
10:25
So as much as I still like the Canes to take care of business and advance into the second round, I think Ottawa could be live to win a game, maybe even both games, uh, back in Ottawa and, and at least make this a long series, ask some questions to Carolina.
10:37
Okay, we got a quadruple header tonight. Three of those series, the game ones were just awesome. Um, curious your thoughts on all four of those.
10:45
We will get to that, including, uh, of so much interest around here, the Vegas Golden Knights and the Utah Mammoth, which, uh, Vegas might have stolen that first game. See how Jake sees it on the other side.
10:56
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
11:06
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11:14
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11:22
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bender.
11:40
Uh, turns out breathing is very important. I could barely breathe today. It's tough. You're s- you're struggling. Oh. You struggle a bit. Allergies so bad. Yeah. It's tough out here, man. Curses, Vegas.
11:52
[laughs] Uh, you have some breaking news in the NBA. We do. Billy Donovan stepping down. Uh, this is from ESPN. Billy Donovan is exiting as head coach of the Chicago Bulls after six seasons.
12:01
Sources telling Shams Charania Donovan elected to step down after extensive meetings with team ownership in the last week.
12:07
Sources said, uh, this is kinda, kinda sad for the Bulls if you're a Bulls fan, especially after we got those reports about a week ago that o- ownership was backing up Billy Donovan, and anybody coming in here to be GM was gonna have to work with future Hall of Famer Billy Donovan.
12:22
Uh, and you know, there, we, we all thought he was gonna take the North Carolina job, so I- This raises a lot of questions, I- I guess for me, what- what's next for Billy Donovan, who I still respect as a great head coach.
12:33
You and I were talking about it off air, though. Like, [laughs] the idea of him being in Chicago six years and nothing- Six years. It's rather- Not a lot of fun memories there in that time Rec- record wasn't that great.
12:40
Yeah. Yeah. Kings of the playing tournament, so. Sorry guys, gotta do this on air. This is, uh- Go ahead... yeah, that- that's big. I'm interested to see where he goes next. And then we got NFL news a little bit too.
12:49
Mike Tomlin heading to the broadcasting side, headed to NBC. Top studio analyst on Sunday night pregame show Football Night in America, sources told- telling The Athletic this morning.
12:59
Top studio analyst, Sunday night pregame show, Football Night in America. So the, it, so he's taking over the Tony Dungy role kind of thing? I guess, yeah. How do you think that's gonna go?
13:09
You think Mike Tomlin will make a good studio analyst? Oh, I, I think he's gonna be fantastic. Yeah? I do, yeah.
13:13
I just hope he breaks out of that whole, you know, the way he spoke as a coach where he was always like, "We gotta do better as a football team," you know, like, uh, he's gotta- He's gonna have to... he's gonna have to.
13:21
He's, he's gonna have to. He can't talk like that on the studio show. [laughs] I think he'll be good. I think he'll be good. Uh, speaking of football, this is a, uh, [laughs] this is a question on Twitter from RichPSM.
13:32
He says, "Gil, did anything big change for you with your IADOA and, uh, Theadabid draft plays, or would you call, or would you, or would you take them now? Thank you."
13:40
He wants to know if he wants to ride my plays on Theadabid over, uh, at 17 and a half. I can't remember where, uh, I can't remember exactly where I, IADOA, IADOA was.
13:53
I, I wanna say it was 14 and a half, but I'm not sure. Yeah, I bet that one too. Yeah. 14 and a half. I bet that yesterday as well. I am not, by the way. Uh,
14:01
nothing has changed for me, but I do think, and we're gonna talk to Drew Dinsing about the NFL draft here coming up.
14:05
I do think we have reached the point s- a little more than 48 hours before the draft, first round of the draft in Pittsburgh on Thursday night, where I think we have to admit none of us may know a damn thing.
14:19
The only one I'm upset about, I, I, I saw you ended up making, was the, basic- the top five pick on Love. Uh- We, we sat here talking about that for a week and a half- I've-... and I never made it...
14:27
I have timed, like, three bets perfectly. Mm-hmm. I've got, like, the best price on all of them. I still don't know if they're gonna win. But, but, like- That one I think is gonna win... I think so too. Yeah.
14:36
But other than that one, yeah, I'm kinda, like, I have two bets. I have two bets, and I'm not really rushing to add any, mu- much more right now. Still don't know what's gonna happen at two.
14:44
We'll talk to Drew about that. Yeah, yeah. Jake Hahn kind enough to join us again, uh, to talk about the, uh, quadruple header in the NHL tonight. Yes, Jake, those of us here in America, we bet on drafts.
14:54
That's, [laughs] that's what we do. Uh, all right, let's talk about these, let's talk about these tonight, beginning with the Canadiens and the Lightning. Canadiens won game one.
15:03
They won it in overtime, was a great hockey game. We're back in Tampa tonight, where the Lightning are minus 185 favorites. Tampa here, guys. You do not wanna go two-nothing back to Montreal.
15:15
Friday night at the Bell Center, regardless of the result tonight, that place is going to be an absolute zoo on Friday night, uh, in Montreal. So, a mission accomplished for the Habs already.
15:26
At worst it's one-one, going back to the Bell Center, and they're taking home ice advantage, so, uh, certainly Tampa needs to get this one tonight. I like Tampa to get it done. I don't love the price on the money line.
15:35
It, it's tough to lay that kind of chalk with Tampa with the, to me, how close I think this series should be priced. It's not been priced close. Uh, Tampa opened about minus 250 on the series price.
15:45
I thought that was way too steep. You know, maybe a slight lean towards the under six and a half. I know we had a high-scoring game, but that was mostly penalty induced in that first game between Montreal and, and Tampa.
15:55
If they put the whistles away a little bit, I do think that this game could be played a little tighter at even strength. Two guys I like, one on each side in the prop market here, guys.
16:03
Darren Raddysh for the Tampa Bay Lightning, defense been about minus 110 to pick up a point in tonight's game, and you could play him on the shot prop, plus, uh, three plus shots, four plus shots.
16:12
I like any of those angles. Raddysh was firing the puck in game one. And of course, Juraj Slafkovsky for the Montreal Canadiens.
16:18
The hat trick in game one, I think Tampa's gonna continue to try to take away Cole Caufield, and if you're trying to take away Cole Caufield, that leaves Slafkovsky much more open.
16:27
I like him for at least three shots again tonight. I believe it was seven he finished with, including the three goals in game number one.
16:34
I am contractually obligated to mention that the last Canadian ta- uh, s- Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup was the Montreal Canadiens back in 1993. Canadiens. Uh, Sabres- [laughs]...
16:43
Bruins, which faces off half hour after that, 7:30 Eastern, 4:30 Pacific.
16:50
This was the game of the, the first weekend of this, where the Sabres scored not once, not twice, not three times, but four times in the last eight minutes to overcome a two to nothing deficit.
17:02
They win this four to three. Unders go to die for bettors. Yes. [laughs] Sabres minus 169 in game two tonight. Maybe one of the best environments I think we've seen in the NHL in a very long time, guys.
17:15
I had to remind myself watching that on Sunday night that this is just round one, game one. Yeah.
17:20
And then you realize, well, you know, a lot of these fans, especially the crowd shots outside, you know, these guys are, they're probably 19 to 25 years old, out there drinking, outside watching the games.
17:29
They probably haven't seen a Sabres playoff game, or if they did, they were five or six years old.
17:33
So you could see this was a tortured fan base that finally got a chance to, to live through a playoff game, and it, I guess it was worth the wait.
17:41
It didn't look like it for a while, you know, two-nothing like you mentioned, Gil, and then all of a sudden a bunch of goals.
17:46
Uh, so to do it in that fashion, I think that's what created the scenes we saw on Sunday night. I would expect another raucous environment, especially now that they got game one in Buffalo.
17:54
Going to be a tough environment for these Bruins players to play in. I, I'm gonna go back to a, a, a play I had in, in game one that cashed very easily. Jeremy Swayman on the save prop.
18:02
I think if Boston has any chance here over on Swayman saves, whatever number that you can find, I think Buffalo's gonna continue to fire a lot of rubber the way of the Boston Bruins.
18:12
And Swayman showed he was up to the task until it got away from them a bit in the third period. So I'm gonna continue to play that angle here. If you're looking for a Boston angle, I think you just go with the big boy.
18:21
I think you go with David Pastrnak. In a game they feel like they probably have to have, I'd expect him to be firing.
18:26
I like Pasta for four shots on the Bruins side, but Swayman over saves would be my favorite play in this game. Swayman over saves. Okay, the Sabres-Bruins, game two tonight.
18:36
Let's go to the Knights- And the Mammoth, the Golden Knights, who, uh, won game one here at, uh, T-Mobile. They were down, the Knights were, 2-1 in the third period. Mark Stone got the equalizer.
18:47
Uh, then it was Nick Dowd who got the go-ahead goal at an empty netter. 4-2 Golden Knights. They were clinical in that third period. Should Golden Knights fans be, uh, be bullish? Minus 148 favorites here in game two.
19:02
I think you take the good with the bad in that first game. Uh, Gil, like you said, Utah had their chances.
19:06
I thought they actually played a, a real solid game for 40 minutes, and then they take the penalty, and credit to Vegas, they, they capitalized.
19:12
Their, their one power play they got in the entire game, they score on, and then Nick Dowd ends up getting the winner, a bit of a, a depth, uh, appearance there, and that's what Vegas has been known to do over the years in the postseason.
19:22
It's not always just the big boys. They get scoring from other areas, so kind of a classic Golden Knights-type victory.
19:27
But I think I saw enough from Utah where I might be interested in the money line here to, here, uh, tonight, guys. I, I... You know, plus 133 I'm seeing on your board right there.
19:35
I think that's a pretty fair price for Utah tonight to try to take one and, and win their first playoff game as the Mammoth. So I think these games are gonna be tight between these two teams.
19:43
If we're looking for prop angles, you mentioned Mark Stone. He just, he just seems like a playoff guy. If you wanna play him for three shots, uh, you know, mix in a point in there as well.
19:52
On the Utah side of it, Dylan Gunther, he's, he's gonna be firing for, for the Mammoth again. Tons of shot attempts in game number one. I don't see that changing in game number two.
20:00
So I like Gunther on the Mammoth side, and Mark Stone is a guy I'm gonna continue to back throughout this series. Keep an eye on Rasmus Andersen as well.
20:07
On the back end, it was Noah Hanifin that had the big game offensively for Vegas on the back end last game, but Andersen was really good heading into the postseason, so I, I don't mind a look at him as well.
20:16
And then finally, the Avalanche and the Kings, where the Avalanche won game one 2-1. Can you bring yourself at all to, uh, to consider the Kings here at all?
20:25
It wasn't, it wasn't dominant on the scoreboard, but it, it felt more dominant- Yeah... on the ice. It, it did, and the Kings get the goal with a couple minutes left, and you go, "Okay, here we go."
20:33
You know, they backdoor the, uh, the plus one and a half for anybody that, that was, uh, brave enough to play that.
20:38
It just, it, it is hard to look at this line, guys, and not have a little interest in the underdog, just because this is a playoff game, and the Kings aren't a bad team.
20:47
They're certainly not to the level of the Colorado Avalanche, so it does, it does entice me a little bit to think, "Hey, could they get a good goaltending performance, maybe score a couple timely goals, get the power play going?"
20:56
Uh, there's ways that they could win this game. I'm certainly not backing, uh, the Avs at that price. It's, it's just way too steep. There's no value on it, in my opinion.
21:05
Um, I would be looking at a couple prop angles from the LA side of the ledger here, guys. Scott Lawton, who's actually the third line center for LA, five shots in the last game against Colorado.
21:15
Uh, you could get him at plus money for two shots in this game. I think that's pretty nice value. Alex Laferriere is another guy I'm looking at here. You could play him for three shots.
21:23
I don't mind his point prop as well. Quinton Byfield you could take a look at. Uh, I think there's some value in the prop market on LA.
21:29
They might not win this game, but I think the fact they're playing Colorado is pushing down some of the odds on these individual players. I, I think that's a market where I'll be going, uh, late tonight.
21:38
Jake, you're awesome. Really appreciate it. Uh, since the Leafs are not in the, uh, playoffs, could you give us the, um, in one word, could you give us the buzz on the Toronto Raptors in the NBA playoffs before you go?
21:47
Nope, no buzz, especially after losing those two games. [laughs] Guys, I think everybody here just wants the Jays to get going. I'm going to the Jays game on Saturday. Let's win some games in LA this week- Get going...
21:56
and, uh, get, get the Jays back at, uh, 500 at least or something. Gil, credit to you for battling. It's playoff season. Way to get in there and, uh, and fight today. I'm a hockey player, Jake. That's right.
22:04
I'm a hockey player. Yeah, that's the right. [laughs] Thank you. Appreciate it. Thanks for acknowledging. NFL draft, maybe some tennis, and some NBA with Drew next.
22:13
Can we show the April, uh, the March/April standings as we segue into Marc Bouchard? Or can we do that?
22:19
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, yesterday, once again, the Cincinnati Redlegs win another baseball game to up their March/April, meaning the entire season thus far, to up their record to 15-8.
22:30
Dodgers and Braves also won, so we have a four team log jam at the top. Wow. Dodgers, 16-6, plus 57 run differential. Braves, 16-7, winners of six in a row, plus 62 run differential.
22:44
Padres, who were off yesterday, 15-7 with a plus 17 run differential, and then it's the Reds with a minus three run differential who are 15-8. Remember, this is most wins. That's a dead heat. Come on, Reds.
22:55
Should be noted, the Dodgers and Braves not only have a one-win lead, but they also have one extra game to play, so we can't get too excited yet, but the Reds take on the Rays again today. Let's go, Redlegs.
23:04
Marc Bouchard joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
23:11
You can follow him on Twitter @basewinner, basewinner.com, and of course the Bet US Baseball Betting Show. Marc, hello, sir. Gil, it's the most amazing thing I've ever seen. No, not I've ever seen, but it's very...
23:24
It, it is amazing, though, uh, as far as how this Reds team has performed, and I'm really glad you're on them, and I hope you can hit your bets, um, because it would be the best story to tell for years on end, because the Reds, while they're 15-8 in, on the, uh, in the standings, on the base winner expected standings, and you can, you can just go, that's free on my site, they should be 6.5 and 16.5.
23:51
[laughs] In fact, it's the worst team in baseball, and so, but what a story that would be to tell through the years, right? Well, after missing the 65 to 1 two years ago with the Guardians by one out,
24:08
I feel like I'm not gonna apologize if and when it happens. So there you go. Reds 15-8. Oh, well, absolutely not. Yeah. No, sometimes luck- Yeah... is good, and, and but it's, it's really, I, I...
24:18
It's almost unfathomable, because you have the weight... So I don't use all these, any bizarre numbers or underlying three-layer stuff. It's just basically weighted runs created plus, X fit minus.
24:28
Those are pretty good numbers. I don't think any would, uh, would argue with me. And, uh, weighted runs created plus, the Reds are worst in baseball. xFIP minus, they're second worst in baseball.
24:38
And then, well, how's their defense? Well, their defense is fifth or sixth worst in baseball. So, um, y- you got all that and, and, and that's why I'm rooting for it so much because I think it- [laughs]...
24:47
it, it, it, it goes to tell you that this sport is very, very difficult to bet and to handicap, uh, Gil.
24:54
What exactly- And, and as good, and as good as you can be, and as, and as, and as good as the team could be, they can still lose.
24:59
And, you know, so the conversely, there's, there's a, there's probably another couple teams that, that should have more wins than they do, right? Yeah. Well, and I would also say this about the Reds.
25:07
While, while they have been lucky, they also have pretty solid bullpen with the exception of maybe the closer. They've had some, some fairly credible starting pitching, although not always, right?
25:17
Chase Burns hasn't been his best. Uh, obviously they're without Hunter Greene.
25:21
But I will say this again, the, the comebacks that they had against the Twins, the reason that they're able to have some of these miraculous wins is the competition, right? And that's part of the handicap.
25:31
It's just a really easy schedule here this first month and change of the season, and the Reds without question have been fortunate. But, uh, it helps when you're not playing the cream of the crop, let's put it that way.
25:41
Uh, by the way, April only, Padres, Braves, Dodgers, Reds in that order. So same four teams, just in a bit of a different order at the top. Uh, what did you land on today, sir, in Major League Baseball?
25:54
Well, I'm gonna do a couple things with this Toronto game, and, and there's... I talk about really interesting stats.
26:00
You know, that's the one thing about baseball that's so good is, is there's a different story every day.
26:05
And I think for me, the story today is first of all, uh, we, we talked about those expected standings and, and I think the Blue Jays have been rather unlucky if you were, if you will.
26:15
Looking at their ex- their record is 9 and 13. Their expected record should be 12.6 and 9.4. So what did I do for this game? Well, I don't like Kohanowicz. He's got about a b- 5.41 base winner ERA.
26:29
Uh, so I went with the Blue Jays total over four and a half. And I also played, I don't do this much on your show, Gil, I also went with Vlad Guerrero over one and a half total bases. Ooh.
26:40
You can get that about even money. And here's a real interesting thing about Vlad, and I, I'm, I'm gonna go back to, to a little bit of subjective analysis, but let me give you the objective numbers, uh, first of all.
26:51
So objectively, at last four years at Anaheim Stadium, it's called Angel Stadium now, it used to be called Anaheim Stadium, Gil, uh, 58 plate appearances, an OPS of 1,114. Well, that's pretty good.
27:05
And then he's played ni- uh, 10 games in that timeframe, and the over total bases one and a half has hit nine of them. So you got that going on.
27:14
But I think for me, that's one of the reasons I'm wearing my Angel shirt right now. You know, Junior grew up around the clubhouse of, of Angel Stadium, right? Yeah.
27:23
So I think that there's some, uh, not only does it come through in the stats, but, uh, I think there's also some subjectivity.
27:30
Um, and if you believe in that sort of thing, if you're familiar and you're comfortable, uh, in a location, you tend to perform better, and I think he's comfortable there.
27:38
So I think that that's, those are two plays i- in that game that I'm, that I'm going with, Gil. So Guerrero, Vlad Junior, over one and a half total bases. And was that correct? One and a half total bases. Yes, exactly.
27:49
And, and, uh- Yep, about even money. Uh-huh... and the Jays over team total four and a half runs. Blue Jays at Angels at Angel Stadium today. Almost a coin flip. Angels just a slight tick of a favorite in that ballgame.
28:02
Uh, okay. Do we, do we not have a base winner parlay today? I can't, I can't believe it's not happening. Is it happening? Oh, I'm gonna do this for you, Gil. Oh. [laughs] And you're gonna like this one. Okay.
28:13
So I'm going first five, uh, and the first team is going to be your Cincinnati Reds. First five. Let's go. Um, I, I really like Burns.
28:22
I, I think, uh, you know, arguably there's some baseball hipsters that are pushing back on this, but I have him th- rated third, uh, in the base winner numbers.
28:28
And if you look at his median last 17 game strikeout percentage, 36.6%. I think that's, that's good enough for me to put him as, as the first guy, uh, in the base winner first five parlay.
28:41
And then I'm gonna go with, uh, the Mets and Nolan McLean, who Nolan McLean's numbers are good, and I think the Mets, uh, are gonna regress to the better.
28:50
I think that there's too many, uh, good players, good talent, and, and really good analysis from a, from a fr- a front office staff that's spending the money. So I look at the Mets to get better.
29:00
I look at them to get, get good today. [lips smack] And, uh, so it's first five Cincinnati, first five Mets, uh, and it's plus 177, Gil. Okay. I like it. First five Cincinnati, first five Mets. Let's go Red Legs.
29:14
Let's get it done. 35 to one best record March, April. Very much alive.
29:20
Uh, if the Reds are the team by your numbers that has overachieved the most, who is the most, who's the biggest underachiever thus far by the base winner numbers?
29:28
Well, I've, as, as far as expected, uh, the record to the what they should be, it's the Mariners. R- Mariners are 10 and 14 in the standings, but, uh, their xFIP's pretty good.
29:39
xFIP minus is 90, and that puts them fourth in baseball. Uh, the weighted runs created plus better than average at 102.
29:47
And then, um, so they, they put that together and they, so their expected wins, uh, should be about three more than they are, Gil. Three more than they are.
29:56
Uh, Braves to win NL East a good price by your numbers currently? Yeah, I think so.
30:03
I think that, uh, you know, not only are they ahead in the s- in the standings, but, uh, if you look at the, the underlying numbers, um, I've got them projected, uh, runs scored per game 5.16, runs allowed per game 4.19.
30:18
When I looked at that, it's minus 140. I, it should be probably closer to minus 200 in my opinion. Okay. So yeah, I think, I think Atlanta's a, a, a good idea. I agree with you. That's why I ask. Mark, thank you so much.
30:32
Mark- My pleasure, Gil... Mark Borchardt, otherwise known as Base Winner, right here on the show. We'll come back, more NBA on the other side, NFL draft as well. It's the Numbers Game.
30:45
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31:21
And at just $59, that's 50% off the regular monthly price. Visit vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Skill Alexander, "Playin' hurt." We get tweets, maybe in the book.
31:34
Wahoo Don Meredith, "Go to the drugstore and get some Sudafed, Gil. Has to be the little red pills that you take the card up to the counter for. Store brand is fine.
31:43
Take two every six hours until you stop the sniffles or can't feel your head, whichever comes first." That's good advice. There you go. Thank you, Wahoo Don. Everything's behind the dang counters these days, you know?
31:52
Geez. Everything. You been to a Walgreens in San Francisco? Yeah. You gotta ask for every item. You know what?
31:58
Like, I get the drugs, but the things like where it's like, do I really have to, razor blades, like, have to be locked up, I have to get someone for this? Come on. Yeah. It's sad. Those I could see.
32:07
Johnny Rigo, "Have to give you a hat tip as someone else who's getting absolutely obliterated by aller- allergies. I couldn't imagine having to try to walk," or, uh, excuse me, "talk my way through the workday.
32:16
Keep up the amazing work." Thank you, Johnny Rigo. I'm a hockey player, so I'm out here. Sam Ginsberg, our buddy from Pittsburgh, PA, "You guys are concentrating on the wrong Pittsburgh event.
32:25
Yeah, the NFL draft is coming, but more importantly, currently in my office building lot is a major visitor, the world's largest inflatable duck. Hopefully you see the pictures I tried to attach." What?
32:35
Sam Ginsberg has the world's largest inflatable duck, inflatable duck in his office? That's big news. That's pretty awesome, actually. John Balducci. I'll Google it again, that's for sure.
32:43
John Balducci, "Nothing worse than baseball hipsters." [laughs] Oh, yeah, I meant to bring that up, too. [laughs] What a line by Mark. I really wanted to know what was getting to Mark when he bro- brought that up.
32:52
Yeah, it's so great. Who, who's tweeting at him nonstop or something and he's not liking it? These baseball hipsters. Are they the same guys who call him a stuffed shirt? [laughs] Read it like that.
33:01
Colin Murphy, "So Gil and Kelly, doesn't sound like you're interested." Oh, I think he's talking to you.
33:05
He says, "Doesn't interest- it doesn't sound like you're interested in a Desmond Bane 200 to 1 Eastern Conference Finals MVP ticket or Bonkero at 80 to 1.
33:12
The path is fairly reasonable to meet up with the Boston Celtics or New York Knicks there." Yeah, not, not, not in, not for me. Not for me. Chris of St. Barts, "What did you find on Cal? She missed that."
33:23
Oh, it was Dedi Avdia Most Improved Player last week right after the play-in games. Right, yeah, look at this, look at this big ass duck.
33:29
Mama Duck, world's largest inflatable rubber duck, standing over six stories tall- [laughs]... will be making an appearance at the NFL draft. [laughs] Big ass duck.
33:38
3ZachH313 went, "Gil, you left out soon-to-be Cy Young winner in front of your Mason Miller reference. 12 to 1 sounds great until the Padres perpetually stay one and a half games back of the Dodgers all season."
33:48
Well, they're one back. They exactly one back of the Dodgers. Is this a sporting event thing? I've never seen that duck before. How is that in your office, Sam? That thing is huge.
33:57
I'm gonna go with outside his office somewhere. Oh, outside his office maybe. All right. Well, we had some drama, not only at the top of the Prem, but also at the bottom of the Prem.
34:05
Paul Carr is here to walk and talk us through it all, both walking and talking. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R.
34:15
He works at True Media Networks where I believe his title is Czar of Media Operations, something like that. Paul, good morning. Yeah, nailed it, Gil. You got it. Czar of Media Operations.
34:25
So okay, so the scenario that you sort of spelled out for us last time you were on is- Yeah... is more than halfway home here. Uh, Man City beats Arsenal 2-1.
34:37
So Man City is now three points back, but it's essentially a tie because they have one game in pockets. All they have is the next win, they will be deadlocked, Man City and Arsenal. Correct.
34:47
Drew, Drew Ditzick was on earlier. He said he thought Arsenal outplayed it, but Man City got the result. Do you agree with that? Uh, that's why I say it was a little closer to even, but I mean, he's not far off.
34:58
Arsenal had the better, especially early on and, and couldn't find a goal.
35:02
Um, they didn't generate as many scoring chances ultimately as I would've hoped in the end when they were chasing the game, but that's kind of been their problem when that happens this year. So yeah, he's not wrong.
35:11
Um, Arsenal still has, I, like again, you do this in the NFL where you pick like the best unit on the field. Arsenal's defense is still the best probably in the world, and between those two teams for sure.
35:21
Um, but City's offense is really good and, and not that far behind though. Uh, you have a ticket on Man City. Kelly has a ticket on Man City, yes? Yes. Tailing Paul, yep. Tailing Paul.
35:30
Still sitting, I think it was plus 320 before the season, so- Right... I'm riding that. If I did have to make, if I had to make a play now, you know, I would still lean Arsenal actually. Ooh.
35:39
Now you're getting plus money on them. I mean, look at the various, you know, supercomputer projections, et cetera, and they usually favor Arsenal a little bit now. Uh, it's the best defense in the world still.
35:49
As Drew said, they were good against City and they have a, they've played one less game, which is kind of now an advantage. City still has to win that game tomorrow. Right.
35:57
And, and their schedule's a little bit softer the rest of the way. So I'm not saying I'm rushing out to it, but if you want something just to kinda root for the rest of the season, I would look at Arsenal at plus 120.
36:07
Arsenal with five games left, Man City with six games left of the Prem schedule. Arsenal plus 120 to win the Prem.
36:13
I was, I was going to say to both of you, "Tell me how you guys are gonna lose this bet," but then I thought about my, uh, my old defeatist Arsenal valet guy at the building. Yeah.
36:21
He, he'd be like, "Oh, don't even say that. We're gonna lose. We're gonna lose. There's no chance." Yeah. "We're never gonna win this."
36:25
I, also don't worry, Gil, 'cause as we've gotten, as we've gotten closer to this point that Paul has been kinda spelling out here over the past few weeks, I keep thinking the season's like almost over, almost.
36:34
No, there's still like a month, a month of matches left. Right. So yeah, still a lot of time to sweat. You just like saying matches, don't you? Yeah, I gotta, just gotta make sure I'm right. You know? Matches. Fixtures.
36:43
[laughs] Fixtures. [laughs] The, the fun way to lose this or win this, I guess- Yeah... ultimately the fun way to win or lose this would be if it comes down to goal difference. Oh. Ah. 'Cause if they're level on points-
36:54
Then you're looking at that. So- And that is-... that would be pretty fun... that is Arsenal plus 37, Man City plus 36. [laughs] Yep. Tight. Yes, that, that would be fun if it gets down to that.
37:06
All right, now the really fun stuff. What about the drama at the bottom for relegation? What do we got going on there? Gosh. I mean, Tottenham's still in the relegation zone.
37:14
They dropped points late over the weekend, so they are now two points deep after West Ham got one yesterday. Uh, Wolves is done, so cash those Wolves tickets if you're with me before the season. Touché.
37:24
Only took three years for that to actually happen. Um, Burnley's virtually done. They could be done this week. And Tottenham's in trouble, I mean, lots of trouble.
37:33
They're the favorite to get relegated, and rightfully so. Changed coaches again. Hasn't really changed the results, so- Geez... it's hard for me to think that they're gonna dig out.
37:41
I know it's only a two-point hole, but they've looked so bad for so long. They haven't won since, I don't think all calendar year, or maybe not early January, so they've just been a wreck.
37:52
Uh, West Ham, Irons 33 points, Tottenham 31 points for that final relegation position at the bottom, if you will, the 18th place position. Uh, I, I think I mentioned this last time.
38:03
If you ever want to amuse yourself, uh, TikTok or, or it's Instagram- Yeah... whatever, Tottenham fans just- Oh, goodness... going nuts about their s- [laughs] You sent me one, yeah. "I can't believe it.
38:16
It's an abomination." [laughs] Uh, it's just, it's, they just are brutal about their team. Uh, Tottenham- It's really set in the, the last, I'd say, two, couple weeks for Tottenham fans, you know? Yeah.
38:27
'Cause at some point you just have to, like, "Oh, wait, this is real." 'Cause sometimes, you know, a team can be in relegation and fight, you know, two-thirds of the way through the season, but it's not real.
38:34
Like, oh, it's real now, and they're just in a giant hole, and I don't know if they can get out. And, and when, they've never been relegated before? Uh, last time was '77- '77... more or less, give or take a year.
38:45
So it's- Yeah, not in my lifetime. So imagine that. People, people's lives, they've never faced- Right... that possibility of just not having a team at the- Right... at the top level. It's amazing. All right.
38:55
Uh, to the prep itself, a three-pack of plays. Are we coming off a sweep, or was that the time before that we had a sweep? We swept Champions League- Yeah...
39:03
midweek last week and went one and two Premier League over the weekend. I guess so. Okay. Well, sorry to bring it up, but we did go one and two. That's all right. We got the- All right... we got the City win.
39:10
We got one today. Brighton- Yeah... Chelsea, what are you doing? Taking Brighton here. Chelsea, uh, sixth place. Brighton's in ninth. Chelsea's Champions League hopes, though, almost gone.
39:19
They're seven points back of fifth place Liverpool, I think, plus 600 or so to get top five. I mean, in, in some ways Chelsea's been unlucky to lose four straight.
39:27
They haven't scored in any of those games, but they have put up over five expected goals. So again, a little bit unlucky, but also their shot quality's been really bad, like bottom of the league bad in that stretch.
39:38
So that, you know, that makes your variance that much more variable. And so little unlucky, little not. Uh, Brighton's been one of the top four or five teams in the league since March.
39:47
They've won three out of four, five out of seven, and they still have something to play for 'cause that, we're getting to that point in the calendar. You gotta look at that. They're chasing a Europa League spot.
39:55
And Chelsea has a FA Cup semifinal Sunday, so they might rest a few guys who are already injury doubts.
40:00
I don't think Chelsea's attack and transition will work well against Brighton, so I'll take Brighton to straight win this, plus 145. Brighton plus 145. By the way, Brian M chimes in.
40:09
He says, "The real fun way to lose an Arsenal bet would be Man City gets dealt a 60-point deduction with a week left of the season." [laughs] "Then they appeal, then they appeal so it hits the next year." 26-27. Yeah.
40:19
Yeah, okay. Yeah. That'll be fun. Uh, tomorrow you have a couple plays, including a Man City play, but let's start with Bournemouth and Leeds. Yep. We'll take Bournemouth to win at home against Leeds, plus 105.
40:29
Bournemouth's in eighth, also chasing a Europa League spot. They're unbeaten in 13 straight games, so they're cooking.
40:35
Leeds is on a decent run of their own, unbeaten six straight in all comps, almost safe, eight points clear of Tottenham.
40:41
Leeds also, again, they have an FA Cup semifinal Sunday, so this is the proverbial bad spot for Leeds, I think. So- Bad spot... Bournemouth is better. They're at home. You get plus money. I will take that at 105.
40:51
All right. Then you lay the serious wood with Man City. Yeah. This, this feels very square. Um, I have Man City laying two and a half at plus 125.
41:00
Uh, it's down to plus 110 this morning, so want plus money on this regardless. Uh, I'll mention this again. Goal difference is the tiebreaker. Uh, so, you know, City's up two-nil in the 75th minute.
41:11
W- they may not have a better chance this year to pile on two, three more goals if they can, because that could be the difference in winning the title. Uh, beyond that, City's really good. Burnley is not.
41:20
They're probably the worst team in the league. They might get relegated here. If Burnley can keep this close, good for them. I will take the far better team here. All right.
41:26
Brighton today, though, versus Chelsea, then Bournemouth versus Leeds tomorrow, and Man City laying two and a half goals at Burnley tomorrow as well. Paul, thank you, sir. I appreciate it very much. You bet.
41:38
Paul Carr, everybody. Coming back.
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