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Apr 26, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 26, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 26, 2024
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlin. Sup?
0:20
Live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas, on the morning after the first round of the National Football League draft. Ho- ho- ho boy.
0:30
Um, before we get into all of that, let me just say, Stats Joe, Tim Murray, his thoughts on that. Paul Carr, Premier League. Chris Felica will join us. Jason Weingarten. Dan Bespers, best audio in the biz on the NBA.
0:43
We'll get to all of it. Guardians update. We'll do it all heading into the last four games. But we gotta start with the absolute madness of last night, and the fact that... L- let me just say this.
0:54
We know people who did great in the draft. We know people who got destroyed in the draft. Mm-hmm. Kelly, you and me, kind of it was... It ended up being a nothing burger.
1:03
We just kind of [laughs] Well, let me, let me put it this way. If y- if y- yesterday on the show, if you told me I w- I would squeak out a few bucks, I'd be like, "Give it to me right now."
1:11
Remember I asked p- I asked some guests, I was like, "Do you take a $1,000 winner loss right now and move on?" And we got different answers for that. That's basically negligible loss on- Right... on, for, for me.
1:20
It's like a, like a rounding error. It... L- let's go through this one by one, and we'll obviously crescendo to the eighth pick in the draft, because that is where this went haywire. Caleb Williams goes to the Bears.
1:32
He goes into a great situation, uh, because they would draft, of course, Rome Odunze at nine later. So you have a wide receiver room, you always love the room- [laughs]...
1:42
with not only Odunze, but of course Keenan Allen, people forget. Yep. DJ Moore. Um, t- it's just a great situation for a guy getting picked number one. That doesn't typically work out that way.
1:54
You typically go to a really bad team. Not the case here with the Bears. W- we never really talked about it on the show either, but, like, did you catch all the stories about them, like, working out together?
2:03
Like, I thought it was a, it was kind of [laughs] you know, gett- getting ahead of yourself a bit. Like, Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams working out- Yeah... at, like, Bears facilities and stuff over the past few weeks.
2:13
Caleb Williams, my big takeaway from Caleb Williams last night was how he pr- he projected confidence. Like, that guy does not lack confidence whatsoever. Mm-hmm. He's like, "I've been here before."
2:22
Then Washington, this is, this was, it was nice to hit- Yes... a, uh, nothing-but-net elbow jumper to start off our draft betting.
2:28
Jayden Daniels goes to the DC Skins, and he does it, um, in a way that I, I don't think Washington ever wavered, quite frankly. And a week ago, I made my case as to why I never thought they wavered on that.
2:38
Uh, ended up getting that at a very low price when the market demanded that I actually bet it in a market that I had no intention of betting. Then it, the chalkity chalk continued. There were no trades at the top.
2:49
Drake May went to New England at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. went to Arizona at four.
2:56
And then at five, Kelly, and this is where I thought, "Oh, this is gonna be one of these epic drafts that I was so used to having for, like, three or four consecutive years."
3:05
We used to bet the draft on a numbers game before any other sh- Mm... and b- and I think before any other show on the network did. I really do. Like, that'll get lost in history.
3:12
But we used to crush this draft back in the day, um, years in a row. But Joe Alt goes to, to the Chargers at five, plus 450, and that was the one where I just stuck to my guns about. Jim Harbaugh said what he wants.
3:26
He said he wanted to start the franchise with a cornerstone offensive lineman, a 10-year guy. Boom, there it is, Joe Alt, plus 450, and I'm like, "Oh, [laughs] this is gonna be a great draft."
3:37
[laughs] The other flyer was the intel on Rome Odunze going six to the Giants. That did not happen. They go Malik Nabers at six. Then the Titans, who coveted an offensive lineman, they end up going with the
3:51
second-best offensive lineman by most people's draft boards, but really one, two. They go JC Latham from Alabama, 'cause if he couldn't get Alt, they would go Latham. Yep.
3:58
And that one, it should be noted before we get to number eight, remember that a lot of people, a lot of buzz on the Titans going wide out. Mm.
4:06
And remember my story when I made my first bets at stations where I was like, "Wow, it's 7-1," and there's all this buzz, and I was like, "Wow, should I bet?"
4:12
And then I, and I stopped myself and I'm like, "This is the last position they need." They have DeAndre Hopkins. Uh, they have- No, that was one of the we- uh, Ca- they got Calvin Ridley, right? It...
4:22
Calvin Ridley, Treylon Burks, uh, Westbrook Akine. They, that was one of the weirdest- Yes... rumors of the entire draft. I agree. Completely agree. And they end up going offensive lineman.
4:32
I, I mean, and before we even get to the big one here, i- I mean, this was... Where were all the trades, right? Like, we're sitting there like- Where were all the trades?... waiting.
4:38
All we're talking about for the past two weeks is all these trades that are gonna blow up these top s- you know, at least three through five. They were surely gonna come, and none of 'em, none of them came. Yeah.
4:48
By the way, at vsin.com, Adam Burke does a wonderful job. What happened in the first round? [laughs] Very simple title. What happened in the first round of the NFL draft?
4:56
[laughs] And he notes that by the end, there were six trades by the end of the draft, by the end of the first round of the draft, but not at the top. And then
5:06
I have no way of proving that this draft would've gone wildly different had this not happened. I mean, surely Dallas Turner's getting drafted here now, right, Gil? Everything's going to script. [laughs] Let's...
5:17
Our night's about to get even better. This pick forgi- We'll get to the football in a moment, but this pick destroyed three of my picks in one fell swoop. [laughs] It was Dallas Turner.
5:29
It was under four-and-a-half quarterbacks. When you knew this happened- Yeah... that was toast. I think there was another under I had on Odunze, something like that. Michael Penix Jr.
5:38
to the Atlanta Falcons, the picked, uh, the pick that shook up the entire 2024 first round of the NFL draft. What the what?
5:49
The Falcons, who had just committed $100 million guaranteed to Kirk Cousins, two of which, uh, two of those years guaranteed, go with Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington.
6:02
And the world was just when the, when it first, when the buzz first, when Schefter got on screen and said they are thinking about a quarterback and specifically Penix, everyone's mouth just dropped. Like what?
6:15
Now- What are you talking about, Adam? We're like, what i- what is going on?
6:18
Uh, Cousins' agent, Mike McCartney, told Pete Thamel from ESPN, he said the Falcons only notified the quarterback, Cousins that is, that they'd pick Penix while the team was on the clock.
6:30
McCartney said there's frustration and confusion coming from Cousins' camp because Atlanta did not use its first round pick to make the team better in 2024. Here's the quote, "Yes, it was a big surprise.
6:39
We had no idea this was coming. The truth is the whole league had no idea this was coming. We got no heads up. Kirk got a call from the Falcons when they were on the clock. That was the first we heard it.
6:48
It never came up in any conversation." Now, I wanna be clear about this. By the way, see this little piece of paper right here? This is when I'm, is making bets at stations.
6:56
You know, they do that thing where they print it out and they're like, "Hey, do you wanna keep this?" Right. And I was like, "Nah. Oh, yeah, let me keep it just in case." Yeah. This is when I did... So what was this?
7:03
Two weeks ago, less than two weeks ago. Position of Falcons first selection in 2024 draft, Kelly, quarterback 100 to one. [exhales] Right here. I, I couldn't believe, I couldn't believe we even had the t- 100 to one.
7:19
That's crazy. I can't believe DraftKings even had Falcons listed this short. Yeah, I can't believe it either. I mean, why, why? Why would you have them? [laughs] So let, let me be clear about this now.
7:29
Now, could Michael Penix end up being a good NFL quarterback and a really good NFL quarterback or even a great NFL quarterback? Yes. Let's hold two thoughts in our heads at the same time. So the, he might.
7:42
None of us are, none of us are that savvy enough to know what he will end up being.
7:46
Remember, uh, I was the guy, I think I was one of the lone voices who, I was like, Jordan Love might actually end up being good 'cause he's holding a clipboard for all these years.
7:54
But it didn't make the Jordan Love pick good either, even though the f- the, the way that it worked out for the Packers was that Aaron Rodgers ended up having two really good years right after they picked Jordan Love.
8:07
That's not the point. The point is, is that, and I... Lean in for this, Kelly. The object of the NFL, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, is to win a Super Bowl.
8:17
So when you have Aaron Rodgers moving in age, up in age, right? The idea was you should probably improve the team either offensively or defensively to advance your, your cause towards that goal.
8:30
Instead, what- I mean, he had plenty of wide receivers. Come on... instead, what they effective- [laughs] what they effectively did was draft a guy who wasn't gonna get on the field, essentially.
8:40
The Falcons are doing the same thing with Kirk Cousins. Imagine, imagine if, if, if yesterday the Jets had drafted a quarterback. Imagine, right?
8:53
We would be losing our minds even more than this, but the truth is this is the same thing. Right, right. I, yeah. It's the exact same thing. I was gonna say, yeah, yeah.
8:59
I mean, you just sunk all this money into i- i- into Kirk Cousins, and at the age that he's at. If you were going to do this, you should have never signed Kirk Cousins. Never. So, so- Never...
9:13
what's funny about it, this is the part I couldn't get over right away, is none of this w- We love Michael Penix Jr. You and I ha- Love, love is our- You and I, yeah. Love him.
9:20
You and I have talked about this for months- Yes... how much we love the guy. W- what both the Falcons and Vikings did,
9:29
w- if you, if I just did a time machine back to a few months ago, I'd be like, "Oh, well, this makes perfect sense. Surely J.J.
9:34
McCarthy is gonna [laughs] sit there and back up, back up Kirk Cousins for a year or two, and this is a great transition plan in Minnesota."
9:42
But now when you've got a 24-year-old quarter- rookie quarterback in Atlanta that you're drafting to sit behind him. After that, the draft just sort of became...
9:51
I have, ep- When that happened and it killed three of my bets in one shot, I was like, "Oh, all I have left is Jacksonville to draft a corner [laughs] for, like, whether I'm gonna win or lose this draft in the end."
10:02
[laughs] Would you, would you like to hear the Falcons GM explanation, uh, on, on the pick? Please. Is it, we have that one, right? Yeah. Absolutely. Let's hear. Fire it up, man.
10:10
That if you believe in a quarterback, you have to take him, and if he sits for four or five years, that's, that's, that's a great problem to have because, uh, because we're, we're doing so well at that position.
10:20
So it's, it's just as, as simple as if y- if you see a guy that you believe in at that position, you have to take him. That's Terry Fontenot, by the way, Atlanta Falcons GM. Gotta take him. No, you don't.
10:34
No, you do- I don't, uh... No, you don't. Kirk C- I mean, if you're Kirk Cousins sitting at home- I- This is like, this is like RG III, 2012, right? Skins draft him second pick of the draft.
10:48
Fourth round, they're like, "We're gonna take this Kirk Cousins guy to Michigan State, too." And RG III's probably like, "What?" Now this is Kirk Cousins. This is w- this is, that's a good comp. This is worse. Right.
10:58
This is worse. That, oh, this is way worse. Yeah. I'm just saying from a, from a coming back to Kirk Cousins kind of perspective, right? Cousins had to be sitting at home like, "Are y- W- we didn't, we didn't improve.
11:10
I thought we were trying to win a Super... What are we doing? What are you doing? You didn't help it, us." By the way- I can't imagine-... offensively, defensively, I mean, neither. Right.
11:17
I, I can't imagine thinking the call was serious. Whenever they got the call, I would've been like, "Stop joking. Stop. Like, it's draft day. This is a big deal. Stop joking around. Stop joking around."
11:24
You can quibble, like I, I would've, I thought the Jets were gonna draft Brock Bowers to improve, you know, to go for it. They ended up going offensive tackle. That's a fair debate- Sure...
11:32
but you're still improving your team. This was just off the charts bizarro. It sent the draft into drunkenness.
11:40
Uh, we'll get to some other things, including the Ra- including the Raiders pick and that odd trade at the end with the Chiefs and the Bills. NumbersGame Visa, the sports betting network.
11:48
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game live from Bar Canada at the D, Downtown Las Vegas.
12:06
Let's go, Alexander. It's Kelly Bedlam. Can you tell I'm, uh, stalling, Kelly? [laughs] Can you tell? Nobody could until you said it, Gil. [laughs] Well, I thought maybe, maybe you guys should know.
12:17
Uh, this is a, uh, great promo going on at DraftKings. Um, $5 to win $200. You bet $5, you get $200 instantly in bonus bets. You bet now at DraftKings. Great deal, but you have to use the promo code V-S-I-N.
12:32
It's promo code VSiN. Bet $5, get $200. New customers instantly. Bonus bets with the promo code V-S-I-N. Let's go, Alexander. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. We also get, uh, we also get texts.
12:45
We also are, like, aware of other people's tweet- tweets that aren't directly to us. Drew Dincic, uh, tweeted this. Uh, he said, "I think Fontenot is the only person on earth who had a worse draft day than I did."
12:54
Drew, Drew tweeted that out. [laughs] Uh, Cleve DM'd me. Cleve TA DM'd me yesterday.
13:00
Uh, he said, "I was on a YouTube show when the eighth pick happened, and it's literally the most stunned I've binned- I've been for a top 10 pick that I can remember. Just horrendous process. The guy is 24.
13:14
By the time Cousins is out, he'll be 27, and no idea if he can play. It's incredible." And then Cleve, uh, tweeted this out this morning, uh, and he's one of the best.
13:25
Cleve TA, one of the best football followers you could have. He tweeted out this morning, um, [laughs] this is great because he had time to sleep on it. He said, um, "Woke still stunned at Penix to Atlanta.
13:39
I've watched the draft since I was, like, seven, and can't recall a more flabbergasting pick. They knew they had the eighth pick and would be there when they [laughs] when they courted and signed Cousins.
13:51
It's not like he had a free fall into the 20s or something. Cor- correct. Just all of it is inexplicable. So, so, like, yes. I mean, how long were they thinking and planning this? It's incredible.
14:02
Al- also, if this didn't happen- It's surreal to a point. It, it really is. Yeah.
14:05
One, one of the things I'm, I'm thinking about right now as you're reading what Cl- Cle- uh, Cleve wrote you, would this have been kind of a boring draft if that didn't happen? Sort of. You know what I mean?
14:15
Like, it kinda played out at the top. Well, 'cause we don't know how it would've gone had it not happened that way. I w- right. Dallas Turner goes in, right? And then everybody's li- you know. Well, that's a good point.
14:23
Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, this is from Chris Jason. "Buffalo should grab, uh, AD Mitchell today. Uh, no loss by trading down. Franklin and Kool-Aid also available." Here's the thing about AD Mitchell.
14:33
Can we decide on what we're gonna call him?
14:35
Yeah, AD Mitchell, uh, then people say Adonai Mitchell, and then of course, those on the leaflet and those on the mishpocha, we say Adonai Mitchell, which I think is how you really should pronounce it.
14:45
Just wanna say it right now. Just wanna be clear about that. Um- Oh, man. That's good... Michael, uh, let's see. This is from Jack Locks. "Had Penix to go in the top five at 200 to 1 and him in the top 10 at 17 to 1."
14:56
Good for you, man. Ooh. Yeah, good for you. And then Steven, uh, Steven Vegas, "When the Cousins signing, uh, to Atlanta happened, I beat MGM to the line moves on Cousins MVP and Atlanta Conference Championship.
15:07
I'm the smartest guy in the room. Then I saw that Penix pick at eight and cashed out both those bets at no loss. Thankful for that option. Atlanta will never win anything." Wow. That's Steven Vegas.
15:18
I just wanna say this before we get to Paul Car. Here's the bow on the, on the draft for me as a guy who loved betting the NFL draft. And for year after year after year, if only we had the tape to prove it, right?
15:32
My pinned tweet is still me going after Will Hill for the bets. That was in 2018, right? We crushed the draft. 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022. Every year. Every year.
15:47
And then last year was a disaster, and this year there was no profit at all. And it coincides directly with the NFL becoming really tight-lipped about the draft.
15:56
So now, can you have a year where you do really well like Matt Humans did, w- like Will Hill did? Yes, you can.
16:03
But can you count on this being a tried and true, profitable, big time sports betting vehicle year after year anymore? And I believe the answer is no longer. I believe that is over.
16:15
I thought this, the past couple years have been interesting, and I think the talk around all that this year was really fascinating. I- we were talking about during the break, I did not...
16:23
I don't even know what his final tally was, but I do, I do wanna make sure we bring this up. Matt Humans, on his mock draft article, uh, his mock draft best bets article, nine and one on bets in that, in that article.
16:37
The only one he missed out on- That's, that's amazing... was a nine to one shot for the Bears to draft a li- uh, defen- or offensive lineman with their second pick. Good on you, Humans. Killed it.
16:48
Um, Paul Car joins us, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R. Comes to us from the Extended Value Podcast. Excuse me, the Expected Value Podcast.
16:57
That'd be a different podcast. The Expected Value Podcast, and of course, uh, True Media Networks. Paulie from Topeka, Kansas right here.
17:04
Uh, I want your Dolphins perspective, and then 'cause you're in Kansas, I want your Chief's perspective. What do you got? Dolphins perspective with my Dolphins friends, like Chop Robinson seems like a good player.
17:15
I have questions. Look, I'm not a huge college football guy. But I don't know if you're that good a pick, you only have four sacks your s- your last season. Seems a little weird to me.
17:24
Um, and then I'm- It's, it's a good point, by the way. I, I'm just ask- I'm genuinely asking. Yeah. Like, it seems odd to me. The, the stats seem lower, but again, I'm not, I'm fine with it.
17:32
The Dolphins need an edge rusher among- Well, he's a, he's a linebacker though, isn't he? Yeah. Different positions. I mean, that's, that's part of it, right? Yeah. Okay. Yeah, yeah.
17:38
It's probably usage as much as anything. Uh, now my Chiefs fans, my Chiefs friends fans were super excited.
17:45
The best part of the draft was, like, the minute between the Chiefs have traded up and the Chiefs make a pick, because it reminded me a little bit of when they traded up to get Mahomes.
17:53
You didn't know for sure who it was, but you know if Andy Reid's trading up, it's probably gonna be for an offensive weapon. So- That was super exciting.
18:00
So all my Chiefs fans are very happy that they seem to have a speedy deep threat who can actually catch the ball. So- Well, 'cause this- Yeah, more what- Yeah, this is- Right... this is their ancestry, right?
18:09
Tyreek Hill- Right... to Kadarius Toney to now Xavier Worthy, right? It's a, uh- Yeah... you can draw the line. Yeah, and again, a shout-out Mike Greenberg. Yeah, I just thought he was great. He- Yep...
18:18
so got it in the moment. Nobody else seemed to on the panel. He was like, "No, you just don't understand what happened. The Bills need a wideout- Right...
18:24
and traded that pick to the team they've been chasing desperately all these years, who then drafted Xavier Worthy, a wideout." It's just incredible. Fastest wideout- Yep... in the draft. All right.
18:34
To the other football, the beautiful game, the global football. Yeah. Um, Liverpool lost. Have we had a... We, we have Falica coming up. Do we have a health check on Falica about this?
18:45
I have been afraid to text him anything. No. This is one of those, you know, something bad happens to somebody, you just kind of let them be, and they'll reopen the lines of communication- Yeah... when they're ready.
18:54
Yeah. So I'm gonna listen with you and make sure he's okay before texting him about it. But yeah, they're pretty much out of the title race, like plus 3500 to win the title now, well behind Arsenal and City. Wow.
19:05
Man City minus 250, Arsenal plus 225, Liverpool 35 to one. It is over. Uh, Everton- Yep... was that who beat them? Everton beat them? Yeah. Big rivalry, yep. Jeez. Wow. All right. What do we got this weekend, sir?
19:20
We're gonna start with the Everton game. Everton-Brentford is on Saturday, going over two and a half at minus 120.
19:25
I know Everton is dead last in total goals this season, but it's still about two and a half per game, uh, on average. Uh, two-thirds of Brentford games have had three-plus goals. That's fifth most in the league.
19:35
I think both these teams will loosen up after Everton's win over Liverpool.
19:39
Everton's not completely safe from relegation, but it would take a very unlikely series of events, uh, for them to get relegated, so they're virtually safe.
19:46
So yeah, just like the trend of goals all season, I think that's what we have here. So minus 120 on an over two and a half is always gonna look good to me the rest of the year. It is an official Paul Carr segment.
19:56
We have an over two and a half. Everton and Brentford- Yep... tomorrow. Uh, and then you have a thought on Newcastle and Sheffield United. Yeah. Both these next two plays are, again, I referenced this, but it's the Dr.
20:07
Bob quote about if you must win, you must not be very good. [laughs] So Sheffield United is relegated with a loss here. So, you know, in theory there's some desperation. But look, they're just not good.
20:16
Newcastle, uh, I'm gonna lay the goal and a half, plus 125. They're the fifth-best team at home this season, multiple goals in two-thirds of their home games.
20:25
And if, if you throw out the top three teams, they've won half of their home games by multiple goals. So it's fairly straightforward here. Sheffield not very good, even worse on the road.
20:34
Fewest goals, worst goal difference on the road this season. I know Newcastle's a little bit tired and battling some injuries, but they're just that much better. They're at home. I'll lay the goal and a half here.
20:43
All right. And then speaking of Man City, and let me just go to the, uh, Premier League table. So right now, Arsenal with 77 points, four games left. Man City- Mm-hmm... 76 game, uh, 76 points, but five matches left.
20:59
Right. You have a play on Man City here. So City just won at Brighton 4-0 earlier th- during the midweek. Brighton is a lot better than Nottingham Forest, and now City is going to Nottingham Forest.
21:10
And to lay a goal and a half, you can get minus 115, uh, minus 120 maybe on Sunday. I, I, I played that. Forest is, again, much worse than Brighton. City's just starting to cook.
21:20
They've won their last four by a combined 17 to four, and those aren't fluky numbers compared to what their expected goals and their shots look like.
21:27
They've won half their league games by multiple goals, uh, and they've won all 11 t- games versus the bottom six teams, and eight of those 11 were by multiple goals. So this is pretty straightforward.
21:36
City crushes weaker opponents, and they're obviously chasing down the title, so they need to keep cooking.
21:42
And they don't have Champions League to worry about 'cause they're out of that, so there's no, you know, looking ahead to next week in the semifinals because City just has this title to focus on.
21:50
So I'll lay the goal and a half at minus 115 with Man City at Nottingham Forest. All right. Everton-Brentford, over two and a half goals tomorrow.
21:57
Newcastle giving up the goal and a half, minus one and a half, uh, plus money versus Sheffield United. And then Sunday, Man City laying the goal and a half at Nottingham Forest. Paul, always a pleasure, man.
22:08
Thank you so much. You bet. We'll talk to you next week. Champions League semifinals. Yes. Looking forward to that. Let's go. Paul Carr, everybody, courtesy the Progressive guest line. You know, I buried the headline.
22:18
You know what the most entertaining, or I shouldn't say that. By entertaining, I mean most cringey part of the draft was last night? The very first thing that happened, Goodell comes out, they're booing him.
22:27
Em- Then he br- they bring out Eminem, and Goodell refers to Eminem as, "Get out here, M." And I'm like, "Ugh." Somehow you missed all the commercials for the past two weeks. Says he called him M. Chris Falica next.
22:39
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
22:50
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Barcará, The Barrage, The D, downtown Las Vegas.
23:03
I just wanna read this one tweet 'cause we have, uh, Jason coming up, Jason Weingarten, Dan Besbris on the NBA playoffs. Kind of a ho-hum NBA playoffs night. Well, not completely. Well- But mostly...
23:13
it's just got- Yeah... the draft maybe can... I mean, Joel Embiid was ridiculous last night. Joel Embiid was ri- We have to talk about that next segment, yeah. That's, that's the biggest thing, was Joel Embiid.
23:21
And we got the Guardians scenarios to come up with, too. [laughs] That's exclusively on a numbers game at VSiN. You will not see this on major media networks. April baseball scenarios.
23:33
All the scenarios that need to happen for the team to have the best record by the end of the month of April. [laughs] That's right. They're not aware of this elsewhere. I just wanna read this one tweet. Dough Nation.
23:42
Dough, D-O-U-G-H. Get it? Ah. Uh, "There might be good value on worthy Rookie of the Year," Xavier worthy Rookie of the Year, "if he has even, uh, an above average season. Mahomes make everyone around him look better.
23:56
If the Chiefs have a better regular season than last year, people will say Worthy was the quote-unquote missing piece." And to that you say? I say I bet it about two and a half minutes ago.
24:04
18 to one here in town at BetMGM Worth a flyer to me. There it is. You could make Chiefs trade up for that pick. Xavier Worthy. Caleb, Caleb- Paul, Paul Carter was just talking about it off the air.
24:14
It could be, like, two catches a game and, like, a touchdown- [laughs]... and 80 yards. That's fine. That's right. Caleb Williams is 2-1. He's the short shot, makes sense. Marvin Harrison Jr. is actually 6-1.
24:23
Be f- uh, shorter than Jayden Daniels at plus 650. J.J. McCarthy 8-1 with the Vikings. Then it's Nabers 9-1, Drake May 16-1, 'cause I don't know if you know this, but he plays for the Patriots.
24:33
Then Worthy right there, you got him at 18-1. Bo Nix is in there at 18-1, again, just 'cause he's a quarterback and so he has the opportunity to do so. Odunze and Bowers rounds out the board at 25-1.
24:45
Let's bring in Chris Fallica. He is the Bear. I don't know if you know that. He is the Bear. Not a bear, the Bear. Uh, he's the host of The Bear Bets podcast over at Fox Sports.
24:53
He joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Chris, how was your draft? How did it go? It went very well. It wa- it was a really good night, and, um,
25:04
you, you, you asked me the question right off the bat, so I didn't get a chance to just drop in the, uh... Now, we don't have to f- we don't have to bother with these silly formalities, Mr. White.
25:11
That was a great Eddie Murphy Saturday Night Live reference- Thank you... earlier in the show. Thank you. Thank you very much. It, it, it did not get over my head. Thank you. I, I enjoyed great skipping.
25:18
But no, it, it, it was, it was really... It, it, it was great. I- the, the over quarterbacks, the, the over wide receivers, uh, Alt going five 'cause we knew it was gonna be an either/or. Yeah. Alt or Latham.
25:30
Um, Daxen Paredes-Johnson not getting drafted, uh, w- was huge. Uh, it, Latham going under four. It, it was, it was, it was a, it was a good night.
25:40
I got a little, a little silly trying to get a middle on Wiggins, um, 'cause he drifted up to 29 and a half, so I figured, uh, 26, 27, 28, 29 in three picks. And so I missed by one. And then of course Murphy getting, uh,
25:54
one pick behind Latu for the best top defensive player. Like, like, like that was the thing that the Penix, uh, pick really screwed up, was, like, picks 8 through 15 or so. Yeah.
26:06
Because I mean, the, the assumption, I mean, it was gonna go well. The quarterbacks were gonna go over anyway, 'cause maybe the Raiders would've taken Penix.
26:12
Someone was gonna take Penix, and it was gonna go over, uh, the four and a half.
26:16
But, but I think the fact that the, the Falcons didn't take a defensive player like they should have, nor did they trade the pick like they could have as well to recoup some picks, like they, that, that completely screwed up everything following down, including...
26:29
I, I think, like the Broncos, it, it did sound like, I, I heard you earlier, it did sound like Michael Lombardi had some pretty good intel that it was gonna be the Broncos- Yep... that took Nix.
26:38
But I think they were probably gonna tr- trade down a little bit, and maybe you wanna take him at, like, 19 or 20 or something. A- and once Penix went early, that kind of screwed some things up.
26:48
So, uh, but yeah, no, it, it was a, uh, it was a really good night overall for me. Good for you. Um, because as I, I'll say it a, for a third time, the widest variance in draft betting results there may ever be.
27:00
[laughs] Certainly there has been, but may ever be. So I mean, some people destroyed, some people got destroyed. And Kelly and I was like one big nothing burger, generally speaking. Um, let me ask you this question.
27:10
Okay, so Penix, we all a- I mean, I think we all agree. Like again- Mm-hmm... it's two different thoughts. [laughs] He may end up being good. That's not the point of the draft. Yep. Right?
27:18
It's, it's a Jordan Love situation. I was here defending Jordan Love for, for years. Oh, yeah. Like, when you hold the clipboard for three years, you usually turn out pretty good, and that turned out.
27:26
Doesn't mean it was a good pick, right, at the time. No. No. And, and that's the... And, and it's really not even a Jordan Love situation.
27:34
Like, like, I, I'm, I'm getting worked up when, when people talk about it that way. Like, the Packers were a perennial playoff team that didn't have a ton of, like, pressing needs. Jordan Love was 21.
27:45
It was the 24th pick in the draft. This is the eighth pick in the draft and you're taking a quarterback- You're right... that's gonna be 24. You're right.
27:52
And then for anyone to come out and be like, "Oh, well, if he doesn't play for four years, that's, that's a good..." I'm like, "No, it's not."
27:58
It means you're gonna have a 27, 28-year-old quarterback who you spent the eighth pick on the draft on with defensive needs a- and you have no idea if he can even play. It, it was, it was just a...
28:09
Either, either you had immediate buyer's remorse on Kirk Cousins and were like, "Yeah, I don't know if we should've given him $110 million guaranteed-" [laughs] "... or you screwed up the eighth pick."
28:18
It's one or the other. Yeah. I, no, no, no, I was, I was just bringing up the Jordan Love thing to again get to the whole thing of you have to hold two thoughts in your heads at the same time.
28:27
Just because someone- Mm-hmm... may end up being good- Right... doesn't mean it's the- Right... correct pick at the time. Um, so I wanna remove Michael Penix, because we're not gonna see.
28:35
If, if Kirk Cousins plays fine and stays healthy, we'll probably not- Mm-hmm... see much of Michael Penix this year. So I want you to put on, you go into the future here. Mm-hmm. Who is the first... Who, who gets,
28:49
as you see the season playing out with the Patriots and the Broncos, who do you think ends up getting crushed more? Drake May as a New England Patriot starting quarterback, or, or the Bo Nix era in Denver?
29:02
Where do you see this? Like, if we- Oh...
29:04
project to, like, guessing lines in the mega pod and we're in the middle of, you know, week four and then week five, who do you think gets destroyed first, where we're like, "Oh, this was horrible"?
29:14
Probably Drake May and the Patriots because he was third overall, and they just don't have any players around them on offense.
29:22
Now, I'm sure they'll address that today a- and take a wide receiver or so, but, like, May was viewed as a...
29:29
Like, if you listen to, to, to Mero Hodge and listen to other quarter- other, other draft Nix players before the...
29:35
Like, everyone's like, "He's got a city here," and he's gonna be thrown right into the fire 'cause they... I mean, they're not gonna... I mean, I would assume they're not gonna start Jacoby Brissett.
29:44
I mean, they, i- if they do, then more power to them and that's a great thing to do. But I think ultimately it'll be, uh, Drake May and the Patriots who wind up getting crushed a little bit more.
29:53
Because I, I, I do think Denver is a little bit further along in terms of the personnel, uh, that they have around Bo Nix.
29:59
But I, I was cracking up with the, with, "Oh, he's the highest rated, highest, uh, completion percentage ever." I... Yeah, he's throwing the ball four yards downfield
30:08
Of, of course you're gonna complete 90% of your passes if you, if you're throwing the ball four yards out of a behind the line of scrimmage. Yeah. Uh, there are some books that have second round bets available tonight.
30:19
Do you have any thoughts on that? I, I would think, um... So, so what have we got? We got Buffalo picking first, right? Yeah.
30:27
You would as- you would assume like wide receiver, wide receiver might be the play with A- with, with, with A.D. Mitchell or, or, or Lad Mckokkie, someone like that.
30:37
I, I think New- Newton, the, uh, the defensive lineman from Illinois will probably go off the board pretty early as well.
30:44
But, but I would think one of those wide receivers, whether it was, uh, whether it's Mitchell or, uh, or Mckokkie would probably be, uh, an early pick here. And then N- Newton is...
30:55
New- Newton, Newton was a pick that I actually... That was one of my, one of my, I don't want to say bigger losses, but that was something I was wrong about.
31:00
I did, I did play him to be picked in the first round, and he wasn't. So that hurt a little bit. But I, I think, I think those three, one of those three guys will probably be off the board pretty early today.
31:10
Who's gonna take the corner from Iowa? Cooper, uh, Cooper Dejean. Who's gonna take him? Um- And are we, and are they gonna keep him as a corner or are they gonna make him a safety? That's the real thing I wanna know.
31:22
That, yeah, that, that's the thing. Well, what are... The, the Chargers probably need defensive help there, right? Yeah. That, that could be a po- that could be a possibility. But again, they're another team that
31:31
we're gonna s- we're gonna see, like the f- the reaction to the first round might be a whole lot different after tonight when you see the Chargers take Joe Walt and then a wide receiver at the top of the second round.
31:42
Right. Or, or like what, what wide receiver the Patriots now get with, to pair with Drake May. Like, we're, we're gonna get a better, a more fuller idea of, of how these teams actually, uh, are built up. Yeah.
31:54
Like I said, every GM says, "I couldn't, we couldn't believe he was still on the board." [laughs] Exactly. It's like a Jack- it's like a, it's like a Jackie Mason thing. Um, what was the best...
32:03
You're a college football observer, Bart, and, um- Mm-hmm... above all. Mm-hmm. What was the best second half of the first round pick made in this draft, in your opinion? Oh, we just lost Chris.
32:18
I thought he- Or he's really thinking about it... I, I thought he was deep in thought. [laughs] We got a freeze frame on him with- Minnesota... Oh, he's back. Okay. Start again, Chris. I thought you were deep in thought.
32:27
Yeah. I, I was, yeah, I was deep in thought. Yeah. I was gonna say, I, I wouldn't... I, I don't like what Minnesota did to trade back up to get Dallas Turner, but, but I think he's the player that would, would...
32:38
I mean, I, I think he's an immediate impact player on that defense. Obviously, I think Xavier Worthy is gonna be the, the, the player that everybody points to there and, and, and obviously that, that is a great pick.
32:48
But I, I think if you're looking for like immediate, like super impact, Dallas Turner I think is a guy who we all thought was gonna go in the top 10.
32:54
And for him to be there at 17, and the Vikings gave up a lot both to get McCarthy and Turner, so it, it better work out for them as well.
33:01
The, the Falcons were the big loser in the draft, and we- we'll see how it pans out for Minnesota. They, they, they got the guys that they wanted, but they, uh, they gave up a lot of future equity to get those guys.
33:10
I don't know how much interviews impress or don't impress you, or how much you care about interviews. I'm always interested to see how these kids react to stuff. Mm-hmm.
33:19
I would say Caleb Williams, like just brimming [laughs] with confidence. Caleb Williams- Yeah... was like, "This is nothing. This is, um, first. Who cares?" Yeah. It's great.
33:25
Um, but I loved both cornerbacks who the Jaguars notably did not select, one right before them, one right after them. Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. Who did you... Who do you think is better?
33:38
Uh, I, I mean, I did not see a whole lot of Mitchell this year. I did, I did not watch a whole lot of Toledo.
33:43
But anytime you're taking an Alabama defensive back, and obviously the Eagles have a lot of experience, or, or the Lions rather, have a lot of experience with the Alabama defensive backs.
33:53
Like, like it, it, it's a, it's a good position. And to listen to, to Nick Saban last night talk about Arnold and the type of kid that he is- Yeah...
34:00
who's Miss Terry's favorite player at Alabama, I, I think in that scheme, he's got a bra- a, a chance to be good. By the way, we got a bet for today.
34:09
I'm gonna go with, uh, QPR winner draw plus 140 against Leeds in the, uh, the championship. Leeds is fighting for one of those automatic promotion spots. On the road, they haven't been a great road team.
34:20
QPR just looking for a couple of points to stave off relegation. QPR plus 140, uh, winner draw for today. All right. We'll repeat that back, and he looks okay that Liverpool lost. That doesn't seem to be a problem.
34:38
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
34:47
From the play-in tournament through the final, DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered with same-game parlays, live betting, odds boosts, and so much more. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code VSiN.
34:56
New customers bet $5, you get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code V-S-I-N, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bibble live from Bar Canada at The D. On a numbers game, we get tweets.
35:10
That beat of the book. Always appreciate everybody. Uh, best listeners. Honestly, you really are. We appreciate you so much. Uh, Trey Edge, "I had Bell's palsy recently. One eye couldn't blink for weeks.
35:23
Countless diet dues streaming down the outside of my mouth and down my face. Not a pretty sight." Ooh. Uh. "Usually takes months to recover, so what Embiid is doing is amazing." That's from someone who had Bell's palsy.
35:37
It's incredible. Thank you for that, uh, Trey. I know Embiid said yesterday too, it's, you know, he really started to feel it just before that play-in game, and that was- Yes, he started to feel... That's a good point.
35:47
Right before the Miami play-in game. 'Cause we, I, I... We were talking that day after, and I, I mean, I was- Remember? Yes... I was shocked watching that game 'cause he looked, it looked like it was more than a knee.
35:56
It looked like something else was going on. That's right. You kept saying, "He's a... Why is he so exhausted?" Yeah. That's right, and now it all makes sense. Now it all makes sense, yep.
36:05
Uh, Martel For your Cleveland most wins ticket where you borrowed, uh, Adam Burke's team for the spring, would you consider taking the Braves series price for a small amount? That's another way I could hedge it.
36:15
Yes, you're absolutely right. I- I'm glad that got tweeted. Yeah. I was gonna ask you about that, 'cause I think- That's another way. I- I think- Maybe I will do that... I think those series bets have become- Yeah...
36:22
a little bit more common, right, uh- Yeah... around the country, so. I'll s- I'll see what the price is, and I'll try to figure it out.
36:27
Because the other way to play it is if Cleveland somehow wins tonight, well, then I just delay the hedging one more night also kind of thing. Um, so we'll see.
36:38
I'll take a look at the pitching matchup, what the projected game two line will be. But yeah, we will not lose money on this, I promise you that. Uh, Robert Busa.
36:45
Oh, this is a great question, Robert, and you're thinking along with the host here. He says, "Can you ask Jason when Preston and Jason are gonna have their own docuseries on FX?"
36:55
So it's funny, 'cause Robert, as I was talking to Jason there and I was looking at the clock, if there had been time, I might have asked Jason this very question, 'cause I was thinking to myself.
37:04
And then when there was no time, I was like, "I'm just gonna wait for Preston to come on. If Preston is able to come on, I'm gonna ask him this." Preston and J- and Jason, and all those guys, and their buddy Sean,
37:14
who's, like, the real NFT billionaire of it all, they literally...
37:19
We went to dinner, and they were talking about doing a documentary on Crawley, and Preston's entire journey making this boatload of cash, buying a soccer team.
37:31
Just absolutely hated by the fan base, this Yankee coming in and trying all these money ball tactics. Here they are on the cusp of the playoffs now.
37:39
They were gonna do this entire documentary, and then this Ryan Reynolds dude comes in and basically bites their entire idea. [laughs] And now he's, like, beloved more than anything in his whole career for Wrexham. Yeah.
37:52
He totally tilled their idea. Power of Hollywood there. Totally gonna ask Preston about that. I think it's still a great, I think it's still a great idea just because of- Yeah...
38:00
the, the beginnings and, I mean, the NFT stuff and everything, which is- It's amazing... an incredible, a, I mean, incredible story. It's an... W- was it, uh, CryptoPunks was their thing? Yeah. CryptoPunks.
38:10
Yeah, CryptoPunks. Yep. I'd love to explain it all to you guys, but, uh, I have no idea how to. I think Matt, Matt owns a couple of those, I believe, CryptoPunks. Matt Brown? Yeah. Really?
38:20
Is he, uh, owning a soccer team? [laughs] No. No, no, no, no. Just a couple CryptoPunks. I have a, uh, tennis play, by the way. Uh, but- Tennis play... Braves minus 285 to win the series. Yeah, see, no.
38:32
I'm gonna, I'm gonna do it game by game. I'm gonna do it game by game. I'm gonna, uh... This is, they're two dollar favorites tonight. I'm gonna p- I'm not gonna do anything with that game, and if somehow Cleveland wins,
38:41
then I'll, then again, you've not hedged at that point, and we'll take one more game not hedging. And then if they lose that one, then we'll do it for game three, that kind of thing.
38:51
So I'll just prolong it as much as I can, but I promise you we'll lock in a profit. Um, so here's the deal. So we're about to hit our tennis highs. The hard court season was unbelievable.
38:59
Uh, up 26 units in hard court season. And then clay, uh, we're sort of spinning our wheels here in tennis. All of the picks of every host, every guest, in every sport at visa.com/picks. And then
39:11
a couple days ago when we were in that DraftKings meeting, I'm watching a score [laughs] about to hit the season high. She gaks, Anna Bogdan gaks a match point, and we lose that match.
39:20
And then ever since then, it's, like, four or five matches in a row now. Like, it's a handful of matches where I have not won. So we're off our season high. Mm.
39:29
Uh, so I'm almost hesitant to give this, 'cause it's like, "Okay, why hasn't this worked out this week in Madrid?"
39:33
But I do have one more play today, and it's one of those where if we win it, we're back to only being three units behind the, uh, season high. Um, so instead of 26 right now, we're at 21 units to the positive.
39:43
Uh, I am on Mariano Navone. Mariano Navone. He's an Argentine. He's a great clay court player. He has great clay court numbers. He's plus 193. I got him at two to one.
39:55
I got him at plus 200 last night, visa.com/picks, but he's at plus 193, still very much playable against Holger Nadskov Vitas Rune. [laughs] Kelly's favorite player. Do they still have all the names listed? Yep.
40:09
No, I mean, not in every place. We're, we've chopped down. [laughs] Did I say them in the proper order? I'm curious. I think you did. I'm trying to find the, the match right now. Oh, no, I said them in the wrong order.
40:17
Holger, Vitas, Nadskov, Rune. Dr- DraftKings has gone to just the two names. Most, most have. Yeah. But I'm never gonna just say the two names. Um, so the play is on Mariano Navone at plus 193.
40:30
Again, I got him at plus 200 last night for subscribers at visa.com/picks. That's the play, and that starts, scheduled to start, you know how tennis tournaments work, in about 30 minutes. Sorry.
40:40
Plus 205 over at DraftKings. Oh, there you go. Okay. So you can even get a better number. Um, NBA, the only... We didn't talk about last night, because the series between the Nuggets and, and Lakers is over, y'all.
40:50
It's over. No one has ever come back from a three to nothing deficit in the history of the NBA to win a playoff series.
40:56
Remember, the Celtics got close last year against the Heat, but, uh, they got stomped in game seven at home against the Heat. Um, it's not happening.
41:05
The Denver Nuggets are on the cusp of pulling off a second consecutive playoff sweep in two consecutive years against the LA Lakers.
41:12
And I just wanna say this, that Lakers got out to a lead yesterday, not quite the big lead like they did in the first two games.
41:17
But when the draft was petering out yesterday, and so then I think we all turned to the game, Denver wasn't exactly playing great in the fourth quarter.
41:25
Like, the Lakers had all the chances in the world, and there was just nothing. Yeah. Nothing there.
41:32
AD after game two killing Darvin Ham without saying his name, like, "Yes, there's a bunch of times, uh, a bunch of times we didn't, uh, for stretches where we didn't know what we're doing on either side of the court."
41:42
Um, Lakers are done. We, we said before the playoffs, Kelly, that this Western Conference playoffs could be epic. It has not been at all. No. With the exception of the Clippers and the Mavs being knotted up.
41:52
Let, let, let's give it a little time. Okay. Let's give it a little time. You're right. It's, it's early, but I'm just saying. And this sort of Phoenix could turn, too. I, I, I think that could turn into a series. Maybe.
41:59
I'm hoping it turns into a series, 'cause I got over five and a half teams. Let's put it this way. This isn't the start we expected. This has been...
42:05
I mean, we have, we have One that's 3-0, two that's 2-0, and we do have the Clippers and the Mavericks 1-1, 1-1.
42:11
I would just suggest that the Eastern Conference with the Sixers and the Knicks, and some would say the Pacers and the Bucs, I won't 'cause there's no Giannis.
42:18
But I will say to me, still, the Heat and the Celtics is still the headline grabber for me. Like, I'm more excited for that- Oh, totally. Yeah... than anything. I mean, we talked about that yesterday, right?
42:28
It's amazing how one win- It's incredible... you could just change, you change everything about that series. And I don't... That's not even just the fans' mindset.
42:36
That has to be, that has to be in the Celtics' minds right now too. Of course.
42:40
Like, you roll in the playoffs with all that confidence, and then you take one loss at home against the Miami Heat, and we are right back to where we've been so many times before. All right. The early game.
42:49
By the way, uh, we, we also got a, a tweet from, uh, PAW, who's like, "Oh, the reason that there's an early, uh, NBA game," he says, "is because of the NFL draft tonight." I go, "Yeah, but then why wasn't it yesterday?"
42:59
We don't care as much about the second round of the N- of the N- NFL draft. Yesterday they should've been an early game, like you said. Oh, okay. All right.
43:05
T- tonight, or this afternoon then, the early game, is the Pacers. Pacers are six-point favorites against the Bucs. Game three, series knotted up at one apiece, total 223.5. Any play? Nothing for me on that one.
43:15
Middleton is questionable if you are looking at betting this, um, and I think seriously questionable 'cause this line has mo- gotten, you know, pa- uh, through the five up to the six, um, here on the Pacers.
43:26
It, I mean it, sidewise, it'd be Pacers or, uh, Pacers or pass for me. Um, but noth- nothing in that game.
43:33
Um, Clippers Mavericks, I'm just gon- I was considering putting a game bet in on that one tonight on the Mavericks' side, but no Tim Hardaway Jr. tonight. Not great. He is out, uh, with an injury.
43:42
That is not- Mavs favored by 4.5 in game three. That series knotted up at one a piece Yeah, Gafford also questionable for them. That, that's gonna be interesting to watch how those injuries play out.
43:51
Tim Hardaway Jr., for as much as, uh, I might have ripped on him during the year, uh, for, uh, you know, sixth man consideration, him not really belonging with some of the other guys I thought, he's still one of the very few guys on the Mavericks roster not named Luka Dončić or Kyrie Irving that can score, that can score consistently.
44:09
So him not being in is kinda fascinating. I did play a, uh, I played a Luka 40-plus point prop at, like, 3 to 1, just I think coming back home. Lot...
44:19
Again, no Tim Hardaway Jr., a lot of the scoring's gonna have to fall on Luka and Kyrie. So I did play that in that game. I'd lean to the Mavericks side still though in that.
44:29
Suns four-point favorites trying to get off the schneid against the T-Wolves. I, I don't, I don't know how you can back the Suns right now. I'm hoping they pull it out.
44:36
I'll be rooting for them 'cause I got that series bet over five and a half games. Um, man, I- Timberwolves just looking real strong so far. So I, it, it's gonna be interesting.
44:45
Is this a classic NBA playoffs, come home, everything turns around, you got veteran players like K- uh, like Kevin Durant, like Devin Booker, able to take care of business?
44:54
I'm kind of expecting that, but I'm not betting on it. You laying the three with the Nuggets tomorrow, game four closeout? I am. I am. I'm glad you brought that up 'cause I'm, I'm going to.
45:01
I know, I think we said gentleman sweep yesterday. Yeah, maybe not. I think LeBron AD throwing in the towel. Let's just call it over. Are you taking the nine with the Heat in game three? No. Okay.
45:09
No, I'm just gonna be a Heat fan. What'd I say? I'm not betting on 'em or against 'em. That's right, 'cause I'm gonna crawl across this table- That's right [laughs]... and slap you in the neck. You told me I could.
45:16
Let's go Mariano Navone. Let's go Guardians. Go Joe and Golic are next. Enjoy.
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