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Apr 28, 2025
Best Of A Numbers Game | April 28,2025
Best Of A Numbers Game | April 28,2025
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43:55
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The NBA playoffs are here, and so is the VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge.
0:14
We've invited 15 sharp minds from the world of VSiN and Killer Sports to go head-to-head, making 38 picks each from the start of the playoffs all the way through the NBA finals.
0:22
That's a total of 570, 570 NBA playoff picks, all available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
0:29
Picks are locked in one hour before the first game each day, so you'll have fresh insights to guide your bets every step of the post-season.
0:35
And right now, you can get full VSiN Pro access through August 1st for just $59. Don't miss this playoff edge. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
0:46
This, uh, VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge has been awesome. Obviously, the first round's still, uh, in full swing here, so everybody's trying to get... There were, there were 20, 20 picks in the first round.
0:56
Again, full game side, full game total. And right now, and again, varying degrees, you know, varying number of picks made by each person, because they have the first, the whole first round to make 20 picks.
1:07
But right now, Doug Kazerian in the lead. Uh, Doug is 14 and three. Killing it. 14 and three, he's in the lead right now.
1:17
Again, there's others who, uh, can try to get there, although he looks like he's almost clinched the first round lead. Almost clinched the first round lead.
1:25
Steve Fezzik, who has, uh, picked his allotted 20 already, 13 and seven. 13 wins in the clubhouse. And our own Kelly Bidlon in third place.
1:36
Kelly Bidlon at 10 and five, in third place, uh, with five more picks to make here.
1:41
Uh, folks better get their picks in, 'cause these, uh, [laughs] some of these, some of these games, with the exception of the Nuggets and the, uh, Clippers, uh, this round could be over quicker than we think, um, in the NBA.
1:51
Even though some of the series have been competitive, uh, but the, uh, when you look up at the scoreboard in the series, uh, tally, only that one two to two, although obviously the Rockets will have something to say about that tonight.
2:02
Uh, we will get to the NBA with Carl Sack. Let's talk some NHL, though, first, with Jake Hahn, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, Jake, the co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL, @jhan4.
2:13
That's J-H-A-H-N-4. Jake, how you doing, man? Yo, I'm doing great. I'm coming off of a hockey-filled weekend, uh, to be honest, so I'm, I'm fired up for another full week, uh, of NHL playoff hockey.
2:24
I was in attendance Saturday night at the Canadian Tire.
2:27
Nothing felt more Canadian than being at a place called the Canadian Tire Center to watch two Canadian teams, specifically from Ontario, Toronto, Ottawa, go toe-to-toe.
2:37
Fan base is basically a 50/50 split in the building, going back and forth, drinking Molson Canadian. So, uh, nothing, nothing was more Canadian than what I was doing on Saturday night. The Battle of Ontario, Jake. Yeah.
2:47
Everybody knows that. Toronto, uh, trying to win a Stanley Cup for the first time since 1967.
2:51
I just mentioned that, you know, the NBA, with the exception of the Clippers-Nuggets series, and again, we'll see about the Rockets-Warriors tonight, but that's the only one that's gone two to two, uh, through four games, as opposed to the Western Conference in the NHL, where all four series are locked up at two games a piece, 'cause they're hockeying.
3:10
That's what happens in the NHL- Yeah... playoffs.
3:12
And for those who missed it, the reason that it ended up that way is the Edmonton Oilers last night knotting up the series against the Kings, uh, with a four to three win in overtime.
3:24
They were down three to one, then they were down three to two. Uh, and Bouchard scores with 29 seconds left. Then they go to overtime. Edmonton just dominates the overtime period. They had a million chances to score.
3:36
They finally get a power play, and Draisaitl puts it in, and Edmonton wins it. It was unbelievable, and, uh, I was, we were talking a little bit about this off-air, you and I, Jake.
3:45
I'm no hockey X's and O's guy, but the, uh, the Kings' inability to clear the puck late in regulation that ultimately resulted in Bouchard scoring, the guys in the studio at TNT were just losing their minds over this.
4:00
[laughs] Anybody that played hockey any level, uh, is gonna be pulling their hair out, if they have any hair, at, at that specific play.
4:07
Whether you're a goaltender, we see a guy like Henrik Lundqvist on the panel from time to time, whether you're a defenseman, a forward who was supposed to get that puck out.
4:14
In that instance, it's, it's Quinton Byfield, a young player who's taken some major strides this year. He's actually been excellent for LA, and he's trending in the right direction.
4:22
So there's a lot of positives with Quinton Byfield, and he scored a couple big goals in the playoffs already. Uh, but he can't get that puck out at the line, and that just...
4:30
Y- Even if you ice the puck there, okay, you take the D zone draw. Not the worst thing. You kind of hit the reset button.
4:36
But there's a chance just to kind of chip it out to the neutral zone, kill an extra 20, 25 seconds. So, huge mistake. A great play by the Oilers on the other end to keep that puck in.
4:44
And they just seem to find a way sometimes in these situations. And even though LA's probably looking at this series, Gil, and thinking, "We should be up at least three one.
4:52
We feel like we could've won both of these games," in Edmonton, and maybe even swept the series. Ultimately, they let both get away.
4:59
Uh, you know, questionable challenge in the third game that led to an Oilers game-winning goal. So we're two-two somehow. It's probably been the most entertaining series in terms of drama so far.
5:08
And now it shifts back to LA, where LA looked really good in games one and two.
5:12
Maybe we're just looking at a homer-type series here where, uh, some, eventually Edmonton's gonna have to find a way to win LA, and they look really strong on home ice this year.
5:20
But huge mistake by Quinton Byfield there. There's no doubt. Let's get tonight's games out of the way. We have the final game four, if you will, and the first game five, uh- Yeah... in the NHL playoffs.
5:30
So it is, uh, we, we start with the final game four. It's the Lightning and Panthers. You liked the Lightning before this series started. This is the series where nobody has won on their home ice yet.
5:40
Game four here as, uh, Florida tries to take a three to one lead, and the Lightning try to knot it up. Which way are you going here, or are you doing something a little more creative? Yeah.
5:49
Well, I, I did like the Lightning before this series, Gil. You and I spoke about this.
5:53
But this was one of those, and, and I think when you're, when you're making picks for all eight series, sometimes you, you want a bit of a mulligan, or at least you want to see the teams play a couple of games and go, "Okay, maybe I misread this.
6:03
Maybe there's some new information I can take from what I've watched in these early games."
6:07
And I think my biggest takeaway from the first week of NHL playoffs was that the Panthers still look like the Panthers from last year. And maybe they were slow playing the regular season a little bit.
6:16
They weren't fully healthy. Now, Tampa does get that big win on Saturday to get themselves back in this series.
6:21
Obviously, the job's not done, and they're gonna have to win again tonight, uh, to get their home ice advantage back, bring it two-two back to Tampa Bay.
6:28
But- I've seen so much that I like, uh, in Florida in this series so far that I'm, I'm not ready to go to Tampa on the money line tonight. I think it's a stay-away in terms of a side.
6:37
But one prop angle I do like in this game, Gil, is Jake Guentzel for his over two and a half shots on goal. You just look at the minutes, the ice time.
6:45
He's been a playoff performer throughout his career, uh, mostly with Pittsburgh. Now he's playing with, with Tampa Bay in a great situation, uh, on that line, uh, on that power play as well.
6:55
He's been boom or bust through three games. We've seen six shots, zero shots, and five shots from him.
7:00
So he's, he snuck a zero in there with the six and the five, but, uh, I think he's gonna be firing tonight in a must-win game for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
7:06
So I like the value we're getting on, on Guentzel to get the three shots on goal tonight. All right, Stars-Avalanche, game five, series knotted up at two apiece. Uh, the Stars have won both of their games in overtime.
7:17
The Avalanche have won their games by a combined eight goals. So that's what this is. We're back in Dallas tonight, though, for game five. I- just anecdotally, I don't hear one person giving the Stars a chance here.
7:28
Are you among those? I think if I had to take a play on the money line, Gil, it would be... And again, I like Colorado coming into this series. Heck, I like Colorado to, to maybe go all the way this year.
7:38
But Dallas, plus money on home, there's been some disrespect to the Stars in this series. Now, a lot of it is injury-related.
7:44
They're down their best defenseman in Miro Heiskanen and one of their better forwards in Jason Robertson. But they do have depth o- on this Dallas Stars roster, and I think that's shown.
7:51
I think that's the reason why they're hanging in this series. They, they found a way to win a couple of close games, and that's what you have to do come playoff time. So full credit to Dallas.
7:59
Like I said, I think if I had to make a play on the money line, it would be the Stars as home dogs. I, I just think that's a pretty nice price. Uh, but the under is where I've been going in this series, Gil.
8:08
Now, the under six and a half has hit three of the four games so far, and in the game that it got really close was game one. It was a 5-1 final for the Colorado Avalanche. That was a 2-1 game with about 10 minutes left.
8:18
So that was looking like a dead set under. Got a little weird at the end, but it still ended up cashing that under six and a half.
8:23
So, uh, as we get clo- closer and closer to the end of these series as well, I think we see less penalties. Games just get a little bit tighter, mostly played at even strength. So I'm going under six and a half.
8:33
If you, if you can't find a good number on it, I'd, I'd play the under six, the flat six as well, but I'd try to find a, a good price on that six and a half if I can.
8:41
All right, before you go here, Jake, I want to go through some of these adjusted series prices and see- Yeah... if any of these interest you at all. Uh, Panthers-Lightning we just talked about.
8:49
Lightning down two games to one. They're a plus 210 adjusted series price, down a game. Ho- hold your, uh, hold your applause here till the end here, uh, Jake. I'm curious what you're, what you'd be most into.
9:00
Stars plus 135, knotted up at two apiece against the Avalanche. Ottawa, a nine to one, down three to one to the Leafs. They would have to pull off the amazing three to nothing comeback, right, if they were to win.
9:11
Uh, Devils 20 to one, down three to one to the Canes, the Hurricanes. Wild plus 175, knotted up with the Golden Knights at two games apiece. The Kings and the, uh, Oilers are, are a relative coin flip.
9:24
Uh, Canadiens 12 to one, down three to one to the Caps. And the Blues plus 155, I believe that is, uh, knotted up with the Winnipeg Jets at two games apiece.
9:34
A- as fun as it is to take a stab on one of those really big prices, right, like a New Jersey, I do... And New Jersey, obviously a, a tough loss for them yesterday. You go down three-one.
9:43
Okay, now you're staring down the barrel of, of probably losing in five games because Carolina's just so good on home ice.
9:48
They, they've shown me some signs in the last couple games that maybe, maybe they can find a way, and that's just a huge price. You wouldn't have to bet much to, to feel a little something there.
9:56
Uh, Ottawa nine to one, I, I think I would want a little bit bigger. I will be going to the game on Tuesday night to see if the Leafs can close it out. Now, the pressure is back on the Maple Leafs.
10:05
Now, they're pressure-free a little bit to try to sweep in Ottawa. Now you feel like you have to win on home ice, and sometimes this Leafs team has struggled with the pressure.
10:12
But, Gil, I think the one I would actually play is the Minnesota Wild at plus 210. I really like how they've played this series, uh, against Vegas.
10:19
I get that they're gonna have to win another game at the Fortress, but they showed that they're very capable of doing that already in this series.
10:24
And it's 2-2, Vegas gets the big win over the weekend, but I love the way that the Wild have been playing in this series. I th- I think they're extremely live to win this. Plus 175.
10:32
Let's not get crazy with the plus 210, but you still played a plus 175. Mm, maybe, maybe less so. I'm seeing some bigger numbers out there. Oh, okay. Yeah, shop around for sure.
10:40
Let's just say if you shop, shop it around, see if you can find that plus 200. For sure. NHL playoffs always lives up to the billing, man. It's been awesome. Yeah. Thank you, Jake. It's been great, Gil.
10:48
Al- always fun joining you. Have, have yourself a great week. We will do it again here momentarily, at least in the coming days. Jake Hahn on the NHL. Carl Sack, NBA playoffs next.
10:57
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:13
Don't forget about sharpplays.com, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. That's sharpplays.com. Check it out.
11:26
Skill Alexander, we got tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Sean's Fox plays.
11:31
With the latest Dame injury, is it time for the Bucs to trade Giannis, who is a, uh, free agent in 2027, but has a team with a cap over 72 million without Lopez, Prince, or Trent signed?
11:42
No first-round pick this year, no good young player to grow. Trade Giannis and rebuild, he says.
11:47
I think, I think a lot of our brains immediately went to that last night, uh, which is, boy, that's not gonna keep Giannis around. Um, but poor Dame, 'cause we just, as, as a player, who doesn't love Dame Lillard?
11:58
Who doesn't love everything he did in a Portland Trail Blazers uniform? The toddler wave, uh, leaping to mind, of course, maybe above all. It's just, it, it's sad to see that.
12:08
If it is the end of his career, um, you know, that's a tough thing. If it, if it isn't, he's probably never the same at his age. It's just a tough, uh, tough way to go.
12:16
Dave Hormel, and by the way, we were just talking with Carl off air. The broadcast really didn't get it at first either. They're like, "Oh, ankle injury." And I was like, "Uh, I couldn't get up.
12:24
That's probably something else." Dave Hormel, Gil, um, oh, talking about Jake Glazer, talking about Shedeur Sanders, um, all the different, uh, negative sort of, uh, scouting reports he got.
12:35
Stringfellow Hawk Brown's starting quarterback could be a fifth round pick with perceived first or second round value. Could the Browns be a Super Bowl contender soon with a rookie outperforming his rookie deal?
12:47
Well, Stringfellow, that is the positive spin of the day, that's for sure. Um, but I will say this. Again, like I said, there are things that people love about him, right? Tremendous accuracy, throws his receivers open.
12:59
Um, but again, that, that, that comment about the, the comparison with Caleb was interesting. A fraction of the athlete Caleb is, for all the similarities, a fraction of the athlete that Caleb is.
13:11
Um, Samuel Robinson, Wild series, the Minnesota Wild knotted up at two apiece with the Vegas Golden Knights. Talk about shopping around, plus 220 at a certain offshore, so definitely shop around.
13:22
Andy V., uh, "On today's..." Oh, this is great. We'll, we'll get this with Carl here momentarily.
13:26
This is a great question from Andy, uh, Vigil, who says, "On today's, uh, ANG, Gil, can we get a NBA Hardos Worry-O-Meter segment with, uh, Kelly?" Well, Kelly's not in, but we'll do it with Carl here.
13:36
Clips versus Denver, because again, the NBA Hardos love the Clippers. Um, Houston versus Golden State, uh, that one not so much. And Lakers versus m- and Minnesota. Yes, they love the Lakers as well.
13:48
We'll get to C- uh, we'll get to Carl here. Matter of fact, let's, uh, get to Carl Sack here, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He joins us now.
13:54
Um, and of course you can follow him @killercappers and killersports.com. That's where he plies his trade these days. Before we even get to the NBA, I must, but we must be transparent here, Carl.
14:04
Before we even got, we got on, we, we chat for a few seconds, and what is it that you said? What is it that you wanted to chime in on?
14:11
Oh, I, as far as, uh, Jason's question about 100 men versus a gorilla, I was curious whether or not, um, you could... I mean, I assume you can't use tools or weapons, but, you know, maybe boulders, rocks.
14:25
Maybe there's something that can be incorporated here that Jason's thinking about. You, you can't have weapons. Weapons, weapons pollutes the whole thing. I'm just gonna say this right now. It's bare hands.
14:35
100, 100 men, bare hands, could you, could you- Bare hands only... bare hands only, could you beat a gorilla? And the answer, Carl, just between you and me, is no chance. We have no chance.
14:44
They, if we as the 100 men, we got no chance. Because there's, there's not enough damage even the first wave of humans could do to one gorilla to then allow the next wave of guys to, like, win.
14:59
It, it's j- that, that a- it's too strong. We, we can't even... Even if we, like, had a... Because we can't put together a, a precise military strike with just our bare hands, right? So we had, we, we have no chance.
15:11
No chance. Gorilla. I read that a gorilla can bench press 400, 4,000 pounds. There you go. There you go. Crazy. [laughs] It's...
15:19
'Cause most people are like, "Oh yeah, the first 40 would have to bite it, but then we'd get..." No, no we wouldn't. No, we wouldn't at all. Uh, okay. To the [laughs] to the NBA playoffs.
15:26
Maybe I shouldn't have asked every guest about this. Uh, to the NBA playoffs, let me just say this. Um, yesterday... First, first of all, congra- again to you, thank you for the VSIN Killer Sports Challenge.
15:38
Uh, we're having a great time doing this. I mentioned, uh, Doug Kazerian in the lead right now at 14 and 3. Yeah. He is getting the job done. Yeah. Uh, I'm flipping coins. I'm eight and eight.
15:49
Um, Kelly's in third, which is great. Uh, you're in there as well.
15:52
You haven't made a lot of picks, so you're seven and four, but you've got a lot of, uh, work to do here the rest of the first round, um, with nine more picks.
15:59
You better, you better get to it, 'cause these, these series might end.
16:02
Part of that is because the Knicks yesterday, and the refs admitted this in the pool report afterwards, that should have been a foul on Josh Hart against Tim Hardaway Jr. in the corner.
16:14
And as a result of the non-call, the Knicks hold on and take a three to one lead in their best of seven first round series against the Pistons. Naked eye, you thought that was a foul, didn't you? It did look like a foul.
16:25
I, I, I was okay with it going either way. Um, but- They did let them play that game, that's for sure, man. They let them play. They, they certainly did. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
16:34
And, and it's, it's hard to just say like, "Oh, that's the one reason we lost the game." Like, well, there were 100 other possessions. There were 100 other possessions.
16:42
I mean, you know what was, uh, the other big, of course, finish of the weekend. Well, there was a couple others. There was obviously the review, the replay review that resulted in a foul on LeBron, on LeBron James- Mm...
16:55
late in the game against the T-Wolves yesterday. Uh, it was a, it was ruled on the court, you know, just to be a possession play. And, and we all... I was at an airport watching it, so I didn't have audio.
17:05
So we all assumed the Lakers were getting the ball. I think most people admitted that when they were watching the broadcast, they assumed that it went off Anthony Edwards and the Lakers were getting the ball.
17:14
But with replay, they called a foul. It looked like on LeBron's face that he kind of knew it was coming. Did you get that sense?
17:22
And as a result, Anthony Edwards goes to the line, and the T-Wolves win and take a three to one lead against the Lakers. Yeah, that was really a toss-up. That could have gone either way.
17:31
Um, I, I actually didn't see that coming as far as the foul call initially. Uh, I- I, I don't think most did. Yeah. Yeah.
17:39
And, and then the Lakers lost the timeout on that play, thus didn't have a timeout later when they probably could have used it. Um, yeah, that was tough. Yeah. But I, I don't necessarily...
17:51
You know, I like what Redick did with the lineup. Uh, I don't know about 24 full second half minutes, but I think that is their optimal lineup. But for, so that's the first time it's ever happened.
18:01
What Carl's alluding to, it's the first time in NBA playoff history that's ever happened, where five guys played the entire second half. And we're talking, uh, LeBron, Reeves, Doncic, um, Jordan, Finney-Smith.
18:15
Who, who am I forgetting? Obviously the fifth. Hachimura. Oh, Hachimura, right. Um- Yeah...
18:18
but already, even before that, when a couple other guys were playing, it's like almost all of their points were being scored by four players.
18:25
And, and to, so the NBA Hardos question that we just got from Andy Vigil on Twitter, that's not a long-term recipe for success, is it?
18:32
I mean, this version of Lakers, they're, uh, the, even if they got past the T-Wolves, this wasn't going further, was it? You know, I think that, um, Jackson Hayes doesn't match up well in this series.
18:46
I, I feel like they could have given Vincent or, uh, Vanderbilt some more time just to help rest because they were only going on one day's rest.
18:57
And then Luka is, you know, was in bed all day Saturday and, and sick and dehydrated and whatnot. And so I don't know if that was optimal to, to do that.
19:08
But I do think that the Lakers, um, the Lakers and Minnesota are two good, very good teams that I think once you, once you get past OKC, they're in the discussion. Okay.
19:21
Um, and then of course the other fantastic finish was Saturday, which I don't think we've ever seen before, which is the- No...
19:27
the dunk by Aaron Gordon right as the buzzer is sounding, right as the light is coming on the backboard.
19:34
And the way that the, that the official, you know, explained it, and he was right to explain it the way he did, is that, uh, the ball left Aaron Gordon's fingertips just before that light came on, just before the buzzer.
19:47
Because he had ve- if he had worded it differently, it would have left open this unbelievable possibility that the ball would have been in the hoop, but if Gordon so much as had a finger on it, it would have been discounted, which would have just been the most unbelievable thing that we'd probably ever seen.
20:04
It was interesting though, in the third quarter, the end of the third quarter in the Knicks game yesterday, it, it kind of almost happened again and they waved it off.
20:10
So it was two consecutive days where you saw something like that. But that was unbelievable and that knots up that series at two games a piece.
20:16
Um, so just an incredible, you know, dramatic, while, while the Shedeur thing was going on in football, um, it was just an amazing, uh, set of games in the NBA, or at least some of them were. What about tonight, Carl?
20:26
'Cause we do have two games tonight. Uh, it's the remaining two game fours, if you will. Cavaliers trying to close out the Heat as, uh, eight and a half point favorites on the road.
20:35
And then the Dubs, they getting Butler back here, favored by three and a half against the Rockets trying to extend it to three to one. It sounds like Butler's gonna come back. That's, that's the gist that I'm getting.
20:47
Um, it's hard to really pull the trigger on, on w- betting on this game until you really know for sure. Yeah. If I had to, I probably would still just back Golden State and anticipate Butler coming back. Um,
21:01
I think the best play on the board, I, I like Cleveland to take care of business. I think that they're probably, if I had to guess, I'm gonna guess that they're gonna rest Garland. Um, no need to force him back.
21:13
Uh, the series is over one way or another.
21:16
I like, uh, because, because Garland's out, um, and because of some trends that I have that, you know, Cleveland has just shot lights out and I, and I think they're due for a little bit of a regression here.
21:28
I, I think that this game's gonna go under the total and I, and I like Cleveland to take care of business. So the natural derivative here would be, uh, a Miami team total under, uh, 101 and a half.
21:39
Miami team total under 101 and a half as the Heat look to stave off the sweep in the Eastern Conference. Carl, thank you. Appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Yeah, thanks for having me on. Have a great day, Gil.
21:53
You too. The great Carl Sack, the, uh, the man who had the brain child for the VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge. Check it out at vsin.com/challenge. Coming back.
22:01
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22:32
Yeah, we're almost there. The first Saturday in May quickly approaching for the Derby. Skill Alexander via tweets @beatingthebook, always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everyone.
22:41
Uh, Chuckism1, "Whoever thinks Caleb Williams is a better athlete than Shedeur Sanders, I have a bridge in Arizona to sell you." I'm just reporting what the, uh, what, uh, Todd McShay said the scouts said.
22:51
Donnie Miller, "100 men versus a gorilla? Gorilla's benching 4,000 pounds? Did I oversleep and it's Friday already?"
22:57
[laughs] Don- Donnie is referring to our consecutive Friday discussions on, uh, picking the new pope, betting on picking the new pope, and WrestleMania 41, I believe, if I'm, uh, if I've got Donnie's drift correct.
23:09
Judd O'Connor, "100 men versus a gorilla. The first guy better have the heart of a warrior." Or way better, or the, or the head of someone who wants to get the heck out of there and not be the first guy, that's for sure.
23:19
Uh, Cspackler, "The Sanders old agent might wanna look into coaching instead." Talking about, uh,
23:25
uh, was it, uh, yeah, it was n- not, not Shedeur, but was it Shiloh who said, "Yeah, n- enough of Deion, enough of my dad being my, uh, my agent. I'm going to sign with Tampa Bay with another agent."
23:34
Um, and then of course there is, uh, there's this, which I will save. I'll actually save this 'cause this is about the, uh, Skins moving back to RFK.
23:41
But I wanna get to, uh, to Paul Spohrer here to talk Major League Baseball, of course. But first, by the way, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, you can follow him on Twitter @Spohrer. He works at FanGraphs.
23:51
And of course, The Sleeper and The Bust is the name of his baseball podcast. How you doing, Paul? I'm doing well, Gil. How about yourself? Good. I know we talked a little bit about this off air.
23:59
You, uh, you are a, obviously a big Detroit Tigers fan. You're a huge baseball fan. But as a Detroit guy, uh, by birth, if I'm not mistaken, or at least that's where you, uh...
24:08
I r- I remember your first Twitter picture was you and your dad, I wanna say- Right... with your Detroit, with your Detroit hat on. But you're also a Pistons fan. Man, you gotta be pretty bent about this. I, I really am.
24:19
You know, um, they've had an amazing year. I watched a ton of, uh, ton of hoops this year. They're a really fun team. I- my expectations are tempered. You know, a young team first getting there.
24:28
There's usually that stair step in the N- NBA playoffs- Yes... where teams take some time to get there, but it should be two, too, 'cause he's not missing the free throws.
24:37
Uh, Hardaway's not gonna miss those free throws after he gets them and I think it's ballgame then, 'cause he woulda gotten three if I'm, if I'm remembering correctly. He was behind the line.
24:46
He hits- Should've been a foul... he hits two of three, they win, yeah Yeah. So i- i- it's a lock. It, it's a darn near lock there. Now, I will say this.
24:54
I disagree with what I think is kind of the consensus of, like, uh, don't say anything. After they admitted they got it wrong, people were mad. Well, you know, why even say anything?
25:04
I, I wanna know that they can at least acknowledge they get it wrong. I actually despise that other leagues don't seem to let their officials, uh, acknowledge when they got something wrong. So I actually did...
25:16
It doesn't do us any good. I understand that. And I'm a we guy, so cry about it, folks. I, I know I'm not on the Pistons, but it's us.
25:23
Um, and I know it doesn't do the team any good, but I do think it is better to come out there and say, "Hey, we biffed it. It, it does suck. There's nothing to do about it."
25:31
But at least they can acknowledge that they got it wrong. And the Pistons gotta win the next, uh, the next one to kind of, you know, they gotta one at a time here now. One at a time. 'Cause three-one. Yeah. Two-two.
25:40
They gotta get to 3-2 before they can get to 3-3, of course.
25:43
Uh, and, you know, lost in that, though, also, I, I do have to say Carl Anthony Towns for a- for all those New York Knicks fan that hated, fans who hated having him or that trade for him, he was unbelievable yesterday.
25:56
The shots that he and JB are making, Jalen Brunson. The tough part, too, Carl Anthony Towns, quite possibly my favorite non-Piston, and I'm trying to muster up the hate for him this week.
26:06
[laughs] And I'm just, like, laughing, shaking my head at all these amazing shots that he's hitting. I do in fact s- sports hate Jalen Brunson because this dude does not miss. He makes the most crazy shots ever.
26:17
But Cat, I've always loved him. He's gotten heat undeservedly. I agree with you there. And so I'm like, damn.
26:23
If, if they do win, uh, if they do, if the Knicks do win, I'm gonna be rooting for them to keep going 'cause I really do like Carl Anthony- Yeah... Towns quite a bit.
26:29
He, he and Jalen Brunson obviously, uh, J- Jalen Brunson, the clutch player of the year in the NBA, just, just amazing down- Yeah... the stretch in that game. To baseball. Um, I've asked you about this before.
26:40
We're not even at May yet. I have to ask you again. The Rockies are four and 23. [laughs] Uh, boop, boop, boop, boop, quick math. Multiply by six. 24 and what is that? One... What is it? 24 and 138, I believe, on pace.
26:55
That, it, wow, you did that off the dome. That's impressive. Yeah. 24 and well, the 24 was easy. The 138, I had to do a little subtraction there at the end. But the, so they're not gonna, w- I mean, I say this.
27:05
There's a little voice in my head that's going like, "Are you sure you wanna say this?" [laughs] But- Uh... but they're, they're gonna win more than 24, right? The question is how bad is bad?
27:14
Have you seen, I mean, where does this rank? Just on sight for you these first 27 games, where does this rank for you in terms of, like, worst teams you've seen?
27:23
I mean, it's up, we just got done watching the worst team, uh- Yes... with the White Sox, of course, and I'm not sure that this team isn't worse by, like, a tangible margin. What do they have? What can you cling to?
27:36
There's a few fantasy relevant guys out there. Uh, Bretton Doyle, big fan of him. Legitimate, really good center fielder, good hitter. McMahon, kind of a stalwart veteran type now.
27:47
Hunter Goodman, kind of an on-the-rise guy. I'm out of names after that, Gil, with Ezekiel Tovar on the IL. I, I, I don't have anything else to really hang my hat on.
27:57
Chase Dolander, interesting pitcher, but he's a pitcher in Colorado, so how much can he really turn their fate? Like, what have they got going? And here's the really difficult part: that division.
28:08
Now, they are lucky that- Yes... the schedule isn't the way it used to be, or maybe they would only win 24. But it is still an unbalanced schedule favored toward your division.
28:16
People think it's balanced, meaning it's you play everyone the same now. You still play your division more. You just don't play them each, like, 18, 19 times, whatever it used to be.
28:24
But that division is going to beat the living hell out of them, the exact way the White Sox took it last year. That's why the, there were so many AL Central playoff teams.
28:32
You have to acknowledge that the White Sox were a big role in that. So the Rockies, they're in so much trouble right now.
28:38
Um, I don't know that they'll set a new lower, lowest record beating the White Sox, but, uh, they're gonna be around there. I, I don't have high hopes that they're gonna make a major transition.
28:48
Also, am I wrong, this is now going back to Sacramento now. Am I wrong to love watching games in Sacramento? I love, like, lots of scoring, generally. Obviously, it didn't happen yesterday.
28:57
But, but man, I, I'm really enjoying watching a scrappy team like that in what is an offensive environment typically when they're fly ball pitchers.
29:06
So, like, I thought I would think this was one big joke, but I actually really enjoy it. No, I enjoy it too, and I think part of why we both enjoy it is that there's a lack of offense in the game right now.
29:16
Um, you know, with so many strikeouts. It's the classic three true outcomes game. Homer, walk, strikeout. And you know, let's see some offense here. And this is an upstart interesting team playing in Sacramento.
29:27
They're not called Sacramento, but they're playing in Sacramento. This Athletics team is really fun. They've got an offense that's really interesting.
29:33
Bringing up Nick Kurtz this past week gives them their best prospect to go with the guys that were already hitting very well. They've got some compelling pitchers.
29:40
I, I, I still have a hard time kind of seeing the path to the playoffs without just a ton of, uh, good, good luck with the health because I don't think that the pitching's there.
29:49
But that offense is one to watch, and they are fun to watch. And I've found myself watching a lot more Athletics games than I expected to this year because of that offense. So I'm with you.
29:58
Me too, and a lot of it has to do with the fact that I'm betting on it a lot. Uh, this is the MLB, by the way. Do we have these guys? The, uh, the updated Major League Baseball March/April win standings.
30:07
Obviously, with, uh, three days left in April. Mm-hmm. Right now, it's, remember there were markers. There was March/April, and then there, at one shop it was just April alone.
30:15
April alone is between the Mets and your Tigers, who are both 17 and 7, followed by the Giants who are 16 and 9. I was never gonna bet into that. I was gonna bet into the March/April, and I did. Uh, I bet the Twins.
30:27
It was an awful play. I had the Mets first to 10. Oh boy, am I gonna regret it if the Mets win it. But the current March/April standings going into the last three days.
30:36
The Mets are 19 and 9, three games left, one at Washington, two versus Arizona. San Francisco's 19 and 10 with only two games left, both at San Diego. The Dodgers and Tigers, your Tigers, both 18 and 10.
30:51
The Dodgers have three home games against the Marlins. The Tigers have three at Houston The Mets gacked a big lead yesterday to the Nationals. Uh, they lose eight to seven.
31:02
That might end up being the difference maker at Circa. The tiebreaker is fewest wins followed by run differential. But do I, do I feel like that I'm right that the Dodgers might be in the driver's seat right here?
31:13
I, I, 100% in the driver's seat with three against Miami, one of the easiest teams to beat for them. And I know they're not playing their... The funny thing is, too, you hear a lot of consternation about the Dodgers.
31:22
Are they okay? They're losing a lot of series. They're 18 and 10. Like [laughs] because they're not like, you know, uh, 28 and 0 or I guess that, yeah, no, that'd be 28 and 0. I can do math.
31:31
Um, you know, people are acting like there's any trouble with them. No, they're fine. And they have the easiest schedule by far of the ones that you just named there.
31:38
And my Tigers are probably second because Houston just has not been that good yet. I'm not gonna bury them. I think, you know, and they're still lurking, but I think it would be Dodgers, Tigers, and then Giants, Mets.
31:50
I, I think e- even with the Mets being up there, I, I don't know. Like, that Washington team is scrappy, as we saw yesterday, and then Arizona's awesome. So I, I, I don't love their setup there.
32:00
I guess they do get to face Corbin Burns, which used to not be something that you would say as a positive, but right now it kind of is. So, uh, yeah, that's kinda how I'd handicap it.
32:08
Dodgers, Tigers, Giants, Mets from here on out for the, uh, for the April-May or for the March-April standings. DFS in 20 seconds or less. What do you got?
32:16
What are sort of tips- Looking at a Colorado game, uh, but don't take any of the Rockies 'cause they stink, so get all your b- all of your Braves in there.
32:22
My boy Jack Flaherty going into Houston against those Astros, and Bailey Ober going to Cleveland, and of course Dustin May against Miami.
32:28
So you got some top-end pitchers, you got a Colorado game to get into, and then Yankees against Tomoyuki Sugano. I don't really believe in his ERA or whip. He, he allows way too much contact. Paul, you're the best.
32:39
Appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Thanks, Gil. Take care. Paul Spohrer, everybody. Bent correctly about the Pistons. We'll come back.
32:45
Wes Reynolds and I wax on about the Skins coming back to the district next on A Numbers Game.
32:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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33:38
I believe Mel Allen was talking about this when he w- when he had that catchphrase. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. This is from, uh, this is from Rocky B.
33:49
"Magic Johnson catching a random stray from Wes this morning on the show." Yes. Uh, the, the, the most ridiculous Magic Johnson t- tweet of, of recent days. This was right before the NBA playoffs.
34:01
Jeff Parleh sent this to me. "Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers will be discussed when their opponents are determined." [laughs] He felt the need to tweet that. I don't really know why.
34:11
Uh, this is from, let's see, uh, LosVegas514, "Yo, is it me or does Wes Reynolds know his R&B and hip-hop history? Amazing. With the JJ Fad reference, you think he could have did a TJ- a DJ stint back in the day?"
34:24
Wes Reynolds coulda done anything he wanted to. That man is a pop culture encyclopedia. The fact that he knows who JJ Fad is is unbelievable to me. And JasonH11 has a different opinion.
34:34
He says, "There's nothing funnier than two old white guys waxing poetic about obscure '90s hip-hop."
34:39
Well, you know, when, uh, Tupac calls you brave or when Toni Braxton asks you if you're going to the party, eh, maybe you get back to me. But, you know, if the, when those things happen to you. So it's not exactly that.
34:49
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, Adam Burke knows a thing or two about hip-hop.
34:52
He also knows a thing or two about being a diehard Cleveland sports fan, and there's nothing like having a diehard Cleveland sports fan on the radio with you the morning after, if you will.
35:03
It's Adam Burke now, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Adam? I'm good. I'm good. I, I feel like I should just throw out Bone Thugs-N-Harmony just because- [laughs]...
35:11
they're Cleveland based- There you go... just to kind of fit in here on the program. Mike Palm was once on A Numbers Game and threw out a Bone Thugs-N-Harmony, uh, reference, and we all lost our minds.
35:20
So yes, we appreciate that. Skating Tripods, by the way, is where you can find Adam on Twitter, plus all of his great work across multiple sports, all of our guides, uh, but all of his work at VSiN.com on a daily basis.
35:31
I wanna ask you about the, the Browns, your Browns this weekend. Obviously first team ever, two quarterbacks, two running backs first five rounds. But you have a quarterback room.
35:41
We'll, we'll take Deshaun out of it 'cause he re-ruptured his Achilles, so he'll probably not be around. But Joe Flacco, right?
35:47
Uh, who they had two years ago and is Comeback Player of the Year, I won't even call it a season, but a five-game run. Uh, they've obviously got Kenny Pickett, who's already declared himself, "I'll be the starter."
35:57
And then they went and drafted, as part of that two quarterback, two running back thing, they drafted Dillon Gabriel, and then in the fifth round they traded up to draft Shedeur sixth in that round.
36:06
What say you about all of this? Um- [laughs]... you know, I, I, I can't really say what I told you off air before the start of the segment, but I mean, this is just mystifying, what, what they did here over the weekend.
36:21
And, and the thing that really upsets me is I love their first four picks. I, I love that they traded down, didn't take Travis Hunter because, I mean, look, Travis Hunter may be an elite player.
36:31
He may truly be a unicorn, but you're wasting his first year as a wide receiver because of what you've got going on at the quarterback position. So I'm okay with not doing that.
36:40
I'm okay with trading down, getting Jacksonville's pick. I really like that 'cause the Jags probably won't be very good again this upcoming season. So you get Mason Graham. I like it.
36:48
Carson Schwesinger may be a bad sign for Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah's availability going forward. I don't know. They still had needs at the linebacker position anyway. Quinshon Judkins, loved him at Ohio State.
36:59
Little biased, but great running back. And Harold Fannin Jr Is basically a tight end playing wide or, you know, a wide receiver playing tight end, kind of like David Njoku. Love it. Love their first four picks.
37:09
Then they take Dillon Gabriel, and I'm like, "What, what the hell are we doing here?" [laughs] And then they take Dillon Samson, where, you know, they had already taken Judkins. Jimmy Haslam is a big...
37:20
He's got significant involvement with the University of Tennessee. I don't know if that's why they took Samson or not. Good player. Doesn't really seem to fit here. And then Shedeur, I...
37:30
Jimmy Haslam probably stepped in with that one, too. So- Yeah... I don't know. I mean, I, I think Kenny Pickett winds up starting week one.
37:36
I think it's reasonable that he's the favorite out there in the markets that have that prop up. Um, Flacco's probably your backup, but it's just so on-brand for the Browns to start out pretty impressively.
37:48
You like what they're doing, and then you see the dysfunction that has made this organization inept for the last 30-plus years. We should have... I wish we had had...
37:57
There's no way to have anticipated the Browns taking Shedeur [laughs] but I wish we would've had, in retrospect, the Adam Burke cam.
38:03
You know how they had the Jets fans through the years, where every, every pick they make and then just losing their minds? You, when they pick Dillon Gabriel [laughs] and then Shedeur, would've been so funny to watch.
38:13
Well, so I, I was out in the arts district with our old pal John Goulet. Yes. And, um, we, we were a couple beverages in, but we, we both looked at each other with the Gabriel pick and we were like, "Huh?"
38:25
[laughs] Like, I mean, the guy's probably not even a backup quarterback in the NFL.
38:30
Like, I have no idea where that pick came from, and then to get Shedeur in the fifth round, trade up for him, like, you wasted a third round pick when you have big time needs at wide receiver and offensive tackle.
38:42
And look, I mean, this is a team that I don't think... I think their valuation of wide receivers is very different, right?
38:47
They brought in Jerry Jeudy, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, all via trade, all trading draft picks or swapping picks, stuff like that.
38:54
I don't think that they were ever fully believing that they were gonna take Travis Hunter that early if they view him as a wide receiver, 'cause they just don't value wide receivers that way.
39:03
So I, I get them not taking one early, but not taking one at all is just mind-boggling. Yeah, I agree with you about the Travis Hunter trade. I think the Browns fleeced them.
39:11
Obviously Travis Hunter could prove me terribly wrong in the years to come, but I think the Browns, any, anytime you give away a first round pick for someone who is trying to play both sides, you never know if he's gonna be great at either, I mean, I think that's a great move.
39:23
I, I will say this and, and we'll, we, we move on to your baseball plays, but there really is... I mean, I started by saying this. Your Jimmy Haslam point is interesting, too, 'cause who knows?
39:31
Maybe there was some owner intervention there. Um, but there is a scenario, right? Like, it is not outlandish to think that Shedeur actually gets some real live playing time this year, right?
39:40
He kind of ended up on a, for him, from his perspective, in the end, with all of that drama, he kinda ended up in a good place for him, didn't he? Oh, yeah, absolutely.
39:51
And, and not only that, I mean, Kevin Stefanski is a really good head coach/offensive mind who's done a pretty good job working with quarterbacks in the past. So it's, it's a pretty good spot for Shedeur to land.
40:01
I mean, and again, it's, it's not like anyone who's currently... You know, the, it's not like the two guys in the quarterback room in Pickett and Flacco are long-term guys. I mean, they're stopgaps.
40:10
And the question is going to be, what does the evaluation process look like for Shedeur?
40:16
And again, I'm throwing Gabriel out 'cause, uh, he may not even make it through the, the pre-season and training camp on this roster. Maybe he goes to the practice squad, I don't know.
40:23
But, like, now you've ca- you've painted yourself into a corner, right? At some point, do you have to play Shedeur and figure out if he's a guy?
40:31
[laughs] I know you only used a fifth round pick on him, but, like, if your plan was to use one of potentially two top 10 picks next year on a quarterback, like, what, is Shedeur just your backup?
40:42
'Cause that's gonna work out really well. I, it's, it's just, it's mind-boggling, man. This, this franchise, I...
40:49
Honestly, like, if Haslam is intervening again, and, like, you had all the Watson stuff already, Art Modell moved the team and may not be the worst owner in franchise history. [laughs] Uh, that, that's true.
41:02
For a, for a, a recent history that includes, sure, Kareem Hunt, we'll take you. Sure, Deshaun, uh, Watson. What could go wrong? And, and now Shedeur. We'll see.
41:11
Obviously those three things are all different, but they, the, the Browns are not shy about taking on a controversy, uh, let's put it that way. Obviously, uh, one of those they couldn't have anticipated.
41:20
Okay, uh, to baseball. Major league baseball. By the way, congratulations. The Guardians off to a nice start. Three games above 500. You and I are oppo on that season long. I have the under, you have the over.
41:30
So far so good for you. Um, I'm curious how you feel about them generally speaking, and then what did you play today in baseball?
41:37
Well, I mean, they're, they're in trouble right now because, you know, they're beating kind of the, the lesser teams. I know they took a series against the Yankees, but, you know, that was a little bit fluky.
41:46
And then, you know, they, they wind up losing two or three to the Red Sox there.
41:50
Um, they're, they're gonna probably end up beating teams in the central division, at least the, the bottom feeders, like the Twins, like the White Sox, and, and they'll play well against teams comparable.
41:58
They'll struggle with teams better than them, and it's just the way that it's gonna be. But Ben Lively is not a major league pitcher. Um, Gavin Williams is all over the place.
42:05
Tanner Bibee does not look good here so far this season for the most part. They have major problems in the starting rotation and, I mean, they knew that coming into the season and they opted not to do anything about it.
42:16
At least Shane Bieber is gonna be throwing here in the month of May, uh, out there at the Complex League in Arizona, so maybe he'll be back by the All-Star break, something like that.
42:24
Uh, but they gotta figure some things out, man. I mean, they can't ride the bullpen the way that they did last year, and the bottom half of this offense is a joke.
42:30
So, you know, I mean, I, I, I'm happy with where they are here so far, but you see on a nightly basis their margin for error is so thin.
42:40
If they give up extra outs, if they make outs on the base paths, they're probably losing the game because they just can't overcome stuff like that.
42:47
They gotta play really, really clean, and that's hard to do over 162 games. You play anything yet today, or are you looking to play something? Yeah, there's a few things I'm looking at here.
42:56
Um, look, I'm gonna take the Cardinals today, uh, over the Reds. I mean, this is just kind of...
43:00
Y- you don't get a whole lot of situational spots in major league baseball, but the Reds coming off of a three city nine-game road trip that finished in Denver. They got home at, like, 11:00 o'clock last night.
43:10
You gotta say hi to your family, kiss the kids, all that kind of thing, and then try to play baseball the next day.
43:15
And Nick Martinez is a guy, he's a, you know, kind of a, kind of a kitchen sink type of guy, but loves to throw changeups. The Cardinals are the best offense in baseball against changeups here so far this season.
43:25
Top five against four-seam fastballs. Not a big Andre Pallant guy, but I think it's a good situational spot to take the Cardinals here. Okay. Uh, Adam, always a pleasure, man. We'll see how it plays out with your Browns.
43:37
I, uh- Thanks, man... I, I wish you f- I wish the best for you. Adam Burke. I, I appreciate that. Have a good one. You too. Long-suffering, uh, Cleveland Browns fan. Always a pleasure to have him on the show.
43:47
We'll come back, we'll recap, uh, the bets that we've made on the show today, guests and otherwise. Coming back on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
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