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Apr 29, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 29, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 29, 2025
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34:48
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Ladies and gentlemen, it's radio's Gil Alexander.
0:22
Alongside our returning champion from Turks and Caicos, Kelly Bidlin, everybody, back in the fold. How you doing? Returning champion. And, uh, I'm, I'm glad to be back, happy to be back, Gil.
0:31
Uh, I only thought about leaving you and staying there about four times. [laughs] Really? I- And just, uh, continuing a career as a, as a bartender, uh, for some bar down in Turks and Caicos. It's a career.
0:41
I can't blame you, man. Blue waters. It's gorgeous. Oh, what a time. White, white sandy beaches. Fantastic. You, were you there, were you there long... Well, I guess you just answered it.
0:50
I was gonna say, were you there so long that you were like, "Okay, maybe I can't do this any longer"? Um- Or- The problem is when you go somewhere for a long period of time, right?
0:57
You have those, those first few days where you're kinda getting settled in, and then you get very used to things. Yes.
1:03
Like, the idea o- of removing yourself from the day-to-day life that, that you've, uh, grown accustomed to over the first few days, uh, that, that was a bit challenging.
1:12
Do you have that person in your life, I do, uh, Debra Song, fashion stylist, who, who claims that I cannot check out on an island? And I'm always like, "Oh, yes, I can." Oh, no, y- yes. Yes, I can. Yes.
1:20
But, but I will say it's like, uh, it's like a Jekyll and Hyde thing, right?
1:23
Because during the day, completely checked out, and then I'd be fu- uh, furious trying to figure out how to watch NBA games and stuff that night.
1:32
That was a li- a little bit more of an issue than I thought it was gonna be.
1:34
Well, speaking of which, your, your travels to, uh, Turks and Caicos did not prevent you from, uh, doing very well in this VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, which is continuing.
1:45
Vsin.com/challenge for all who, uh, wanna see the standings here. Uh, right now, as we get to the very end of the first round, or we're getting to the, we believe here, to the end of the first round.
1:56
Of course, the Clippers and Nuggets series is the one outlier that's two to two. Um, Doug Kazerian, 14 and three. Hoo. Stevie Fezzik, 13 and seven.
2:07
You are in third at 11 and six, with JBT right on your heels at 11 and seven. How about that? How about that? It's been- Kelly Bidlin. It's been a good first round so far.
2:16
Yeah, I, I think I mentioned, uh, on my final days here, Vegas was ushering me out of town. It was, uh, it's been good so far.
2:22
Hit JT, Justin Thomas, as soon as I left, so that was three golf outright hits in the, the past four tournaments. That was nice. And then, uh, NBA first round betting has been awesome so far.
2:31
If the Clippers can, uh, uh, win this series, it will be an excellent first round. Well, that's the thing, right? So, you know, I was reminded of this last night watching the, uh, the Stars and the Avalanche in hockey.
2:42
The, the Avalanche in that series, and this is somewhat anecdotal, but not really, I couldn't find one hockey person, right? Who thought that the Avalanche w- uh, who thought that the Stars were gonna win this series.
2:54
They haven't yet. It's three to two Stars. Um, and obviously there were injuries too involved in that.
2:58
But still, the, all the hockey hardos, I, I don't s- one person, I didn't hear one person give the Stars a chance in this series. And the NBA equivalent of that is, um, the Clippers and the Pistons, largely. Mm.
3:12
Anecdotal to some degree, but I think that's kind of the consensus. Pistons down three to one in a series where, quite frankly, that should be two to two.
3:19
Um, but it nonetheless down three to one, and now the Clippers, who play tonight. Tonight it's, it's four games in the NBA, three of which are potential closeouts, uh, in the Eastern Conference.
3:29
Uh, all, all series in the East are of the three to one variety. The Pacers look to close out the Bucs. The Knicks look to close out the Pistons. Um, and the Celtics look to close out the Magic.
3:42
By the way, Pacers eight and a half point favorites, Knicks five and a half point favorites, Boston 11 and a half point favorites in those respective series. And then it is the Clippers and the, uh, the Nuggets tonight.
3:51
The only two to two through four games in the entire NBA playoffs, with the Clip Show as a one and a half point road favorite. Do you have a play in any of these tonight? You know what?
4:02
I'd love to come back and be really exciting, Gil, but no, I have no bets at all tonight, uh- In any of them... in any of these four games. Yeah, nothing so far. Um, look, I think there are...
4:11
The Clip- the Clippers at this point, I'm just gonna be, I'm just gonna be riding my series bets with them.
4:15
I, I do think that we are, now that you're kind of looking at a best of three in that series, with Denver home court, I was surprised after game four what we saw series price get reposted as.
4:25
I thought it was gonna be a little bit closer, uh, to a coin flip. Still get money, uh, plus money on Denver. I wouldn't be w- I would still like the Clippers.
4:33
I think the Clippers should a- be up at least three-one in this series. But man, you're talking about best of three now with Nikola Jokic on one side, and you get two games in Denver po- potentially. A- that's scary.
4:45
I, I, uh, would be leaning, game-wise would be leaning to the Clippers tonight, but man, I really, I really don't have much there.
4:51
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Nuggets go home and look, look solid, uh, in Denver. I think the Celtics ca- take care of business tonight.
4:58
However, if you were gonna bet it, I think all series long, and I've made a couple of these, it'd be Magic or nothing. I just don't know how you can lay all these points.
5:05
Um, especially when you look at such, such a short total between those two teams with Magic-Celtics. Uh, I wouldn't be running to lay the points, but I do think the Celtics get done.
5:13
Bucs, Pacers, Pistons, Knicks I think are interesting tonight. I could see Knicks winning big. I think they go home. I think they've stolen momentum a bit. I think they could put up a big number on Detroit, uh, tonight.
5:25
But yet no, but yet no play from you. No play yet. I'm waiting to see where this number goes. If it hits five, it'd probably be a bet on for me.
5:32
And then the other one I'm waiting to see where this number goes is Bucs-Pacers. I think that there is, I think there's a lot of people running to overreact to Da- uh, Damian Lillard being out and Bucs season's done.
5:42
Yes, Bucs season is probably done, but when you're talking about catching seven and a half, eight points with this Bucs team, who keep in mind played a lot of basketball without Damian Lillard toward the end of the season, and really saw their offense come into form, um- I think this might get over-adjusted a little bit.
5:59
I'm gonna be watching this one today. It would be Bucs or nothing for me there from the game. But Pacers, Pacers series bet for me. I'll, I'll be rooting on that one getting home.
6:06
Um, I'm curious what your thoughts are on these other two three-ones out west specifically. Obviously the Cavaliers and the, uh, Thunder respective one seeds completing their sweep, so they move on to the second round.
6:17
But the, uh, the three-one series in the West are not built like the three-one series in the East because in, in all cases of the three-one series in the East, it is the home team, or excuse me, the, the lower seed, if you will.
6:29
Pardon me. I always get a lower and higher seed messed up.
6:31
The higher seed, uh, who came in with the home court advantage, they get chances to win it in game five tonight, and then if that fails, they have game six and seven to, to still, uh, get that opportunity, seven being back at home.
6:43
Out West, it is the h- it is the lower seeds that have the three to one lead, right? Respectively, the Timberwolves, the six seed with a three games to one lead over the Lakers.
6:53
Um, game f- game five headed back to the Lakers, uh, to, to LA rather, with Minnesota only getting home court, of course, in game six. That's how it works when you are the lower seed.
7:03
Same will be the case with the Warriors, uh, as they head into game five at Houston, not tonight of course, but only game six back in San Francisco.
7:11
So it's a little different, uh, uh, a little bit different of an alchemy obviously in those series. But I'm curious, because of that, do, does a adjusted series price on either the Lakers or the Warriors interest you?
7:24
Excuse me, excuse me. Pardon me. The Lakers or the Rockets interest you at all? The, uh, Rockets are what? About a pl- a seven to one shot. Is that right? Six to one, let's call it.
7:34
And the Lakers are p- Lakers are only b- you're only getting plus 350 on the Lakers to come back from a three to one deficit. Do either of those series prices, adjusted series prices interest you?
7:45
That, that Lakers price is a joke. Um- It is. Total joke... Rockets I would be much more interested in the, in than the Lakers.
7:52
I think you've got some W- I, I, I mean, w- Warriors game, and we'll talk about it from last night, it was incredible.
7:58
But Jimmy, you know, Jimmy Butler, you do have to say, he looked, he looked very much injured, playing through, playing injured through a lot of that game before fourth quarter Jimmy shows up and kind of puts things away.
8:08
But- 27 points, 12 of 12 from the stripe But I, I think there's still questions and concerns about that going forward, and this Rockets team, look, they, they gotta have.
8:17
They, we knew this was gonna be a problem heading into this. Where is this, where's the consistent offense gonna come from?
8:22
And Jalen Green, when you do nothing like you did last night, it's gonna be very tough for this team to win basketball games. But w- we see them dominating Golden State, uh, you know, on the offensive glass.
8:32
Steven Adams with huge games. They've unlocked something there, uh, a little bit, which is gonna give you extra possessions, extra opportunities. And in a playoff-type atmosphere, that is massive.
8:42
So, I look, I think, yes, Warriors probably get it done still, but if I had to bet on one of those, it would be Rockets.
8:47
And one, the one I'll bring up with the Lakers, Gil, I don't, I feel like this is a lot more the national media perspec- uh, y- uh, rhetoric that I've heard the past couple days, but what, what did...
8:58
Like, the Timberwolves have been constructed and have constructed this roster since the Karl-Anthony Towns trade. There is no, there should be no surprise about Minnesota having a three-one lead over the Lakers.
9:09
Everybody's freaking out about the Lakers' season possibly coming to an end. The trade wasn't for this year, Gil. [laughs] The trade was for the future of what to happen with the Lakers.
9:18
I, I have pointed that out a few times in your eyes. It's driving me insane. Everybody's like, "Well, they traded for Luka. What a disaster. What a disaster." [laughs] Kelly, Kelly's getting very angry.
9:25
I can't believe how much I'm hearing of this. It's like- Yep. If you had less than one segment for Kelly to get angry, it cashes.
9:30
The, I mean, the Lakers are playing w- they're essentially playing in my mind with house money this postseason. Like, this, this roster is a nightmare. Every... JJ Redick getting killed for playing those guys- Oh...
9:41
every minute in the second half, I don't necessarily blame him, Gil- Yeah... because where else is he supposed to turn to? You can't. You, and, and w- you have four guys scoring almost all your points.
9:49
It's not a recipe for, for long-term success this year. Back to your Jalen Green points. This is the four games in this series. Seven points, 38 points, nine points, and eight points. Yeah.
10:00
Um, that ain't gonna get it done. Last night, by the way, Butler 27, as I mentioned, on 12 of 12, uh, shooting from the line. Podziemski, what a game. 26 points, six of 11 from behind the arc.
10:11
Uh, Curry with only 17, so it was not a big Steph Curry game, and somehow the Warriors figure it out in the end. Uh, in defeat, Alperen Şengün, 31 and 10, dominating whenever he sort of wants to.
10:23
Um, he just backs up to the basket and gets it done. Didn't on the last shot. VanVleet, I mean, this was a game that the Rockets just squandered from, from Fred VanVleet. Yeah.
10:33
25 points on eight of 12 shooting from behind the arc, and that 12th was the desperation one to try to tie it. He was just insane. But the Rockets were only 19 of 31 from the stripe.
10:44
So that had a lot of bearing on the game last night as well.
10:46
Uh, in a game where Golden State was down seven at the half and started the, the third quarter on an 18 to one run, and still, you know, were down late, figured out a way to win it.
10:56
Just an unbelievable, uh, an outcome there. It didn't get the cover, though, as many of us who had the Warriors minus three and a half lamented. Mm-hmm. But they do win by three. And I, it just feels like
11:09
they might not be the better basketball team, but they're the most ex- they're the much more experienced, and that's what the handicap was coming into this series, and so far it's manifested.
11:17
I mean, just look at the end of that game last night, right? Kerr, awesome, going to, going to hack Adams to get him off the court. Genius.
11:22
But Jimmy Butler showing up in the fourth quarter, that's what you bring him in for. And then Draymond Green, shut down defense at the end of that game to seal it. Uh, Mark Borchers on the show to talk baseball with us.
11:31
Paul Carr, Champions League. Drew Dinsick on the NBA and tennis. We'll talk Browns week one starter odds. Uh, some hypothetical round two series odds in the NBA. We'll get to those on the other side.
11:43
It's the Numbers Game at Beason. The Sports Betting Network. Kelly's back. [upbeat music]The numbers tell the story, they always do.
11:59
So one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
12:06
Hour number two of Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's my little buddy Kelly Midlan everybody.
12:17
Kelly Midlan, still losing weight, yes? No, no, not at all. Oh, no. I was just gonna say, worst part of vacation, oh man, I stepped on that scale yesterday. Woo. It all came back quick.
12:27
Five pounds up from, uh, a week before, Gil. Oh, five isn't so bad actually. Yeah, well, yeah. Yeah, yeah. I wasn't happy about it. I actually, I actually worked out a few times on vacation, but the, uh- Good...
12:37
the amount of, the amount of, uh, frozen beverages and stuff by the pool that I was drinking was, and then eating a lot, it, it made sense. Checks out.
12:45
We get, we get tweets at Beating The Book, I'm sure you'll be back down in a, in a heartbeat.
12:49
Master of Puppets, "The problem with the 100 men versus gorillas thing is 20, 30% of the men will run as soon as the gorilla tears apart the first five men. So right there we're down to 65 men left.
12:59
Gorilla by a billion after that." I don't know. You gotta take it easy with the... I could t- I could do a five-hour show on this, 'cause I need, I need, I, I need to know how much planning there is for, for the people.
13:08
Again, I've answered all your questions. You have all the planning in the world. So they're all just thrown in right away. This is like Squid Games, or what's it called? Squid Games, right? Yeah.
13:15
Hunger Games, Squid Games. Pre-flop you have all the, the, you know, you'll schedule the event with the gorilla. He will abide by your schedule. You'll, you'll have as much chance to pre-flop plan it as you want.
13:25
Do I get to recruit the 99 other people? Absolutely. I'm assuming I'm a part of this. 99 humans.
13:30
Whatever, whoever 99 others you wanna be, you want, you wanna get, you're, that's all, the gorilla's winning every time, dude. Jamie Leyva, "It's great to have you back. Timeout, I have to make bone weapons out of Jim.
13:40
[laughs] This is the magic Kelly and Gil provides." Yeah, you're skipping over that part. I think my bone weapons is a, uh, it's a, it's a serious part of this, uh, equation. Have a fantastic day, gentlemen.
13:50
Thank you, Jamie. You too. Um, y- no, there's no, there's no, you don't have timeouts allotted. You can't, like, make weapons. Yeah, but you said I get all the prep time I want. Yeah, pre-flop, not during.
13:59
Right, so, like, J- you know, who is it? Jeff and a few of his buddies gotta go. Jim, Jim. Let's get it right. Jim. [laughs] Yeah. Jim and Jeff- Yeah... and a couple other people gotta go- Yeah...
14:08
so I can, uh, make their femurs into, uh, swords. Yeah, but that's already after it's started. You can't do that during the middle of it. No, I s- you said prep time. Pre-flop, before the event starts. Right, yeah.
14:17
So I'm gonna start with 97, because- Oh, you're gonna kill them prematurely? That's right, yes. [laughs] I don't think you're, I, you- I'd rather have 97 in weapons than 100.
14:26
I don't think you're allowed to have those weapons. Now, now you're just making up some nonsense. Now, now- I'm just asking questions... listen, suspension of belief was one thing, now you're going into nonsense area.
14:35
Drew Dincic joins us [laughs] ladies and gentlemen, um, from the LBC, where, uh, he, we haven't had a chance to talk to Drew about the NFL draft. Courtesy, comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
14:45
It's the Deep Dive podcast with Andy Molator. It's NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. How you doing, Drew? I'm good.
14:53
I've been spending my week equally fruitlessly trying to handicap, uh, animals and people, uh, although it's been for the Kentucky Derby. Um, I'm getting nervous now. Uh, I've spent about a, I've spent about half of my
15:07
full 120 hours of prep, uh, to this point. I feel like I'm, I'm, I'm in good shape, but, uh, I got a long way to go. And, uh, it is always a, uh, a wild and, uh, um, seemingly difficult, um, you know, balance, right?
15:23
To say, yes, this was time well spent. Yes. 120 hours studying a horse race that takes 120 seconds. Yeah. And, um, and, yes, I mean, will, will there be potentially more reward than handicapping gorillas and humans? Yes.
15:35
[laughs] Um, but, uh, ultimately it's, it's still as, uh, as ridiculous. [laughs] Okay. Well, so the, I feel that way too, but now let's be honest. You're gonna be on the broadcast, right?
15:46
Is this gonna be on NBC network or on Peacock? Which is it gonna be on? They, I'm just digital, man. You're just digital. Uh, they're- Okay. Yeah, I'm just digital.
15:54
But, but we're doing, I'm, I'm, in total I'm gonna record probably, um, I'd say like two or three hours worth of stuff in small chunks- Oh, my...
16:03
that'll go up, like, kind of throughout the, throughout the weekend on the, uh, the NBC News feed, uh, NBC Sports YouTube, and, and everywhere else you, uh, you look for information.
16:13
Um, but, um, yeah, no, last week I'd say, like, and, you know, last, excuse me, last year, um, the most successful piece of content I did, uh, f- in my five-year history of working for NBC was the, uh, the boots on the ground morning of the Derby.
16:27
Boots in the mud. Yes. I remember that. Um, kind of report, report live from the track. Uh, uh, lot, you know,
16:34
uh, handicappers, friends, uh, strangers, uh, alike, all kind of very, uh, thankful for, um, getting up early on Saturday morning to get out there and, uh, and review the conditions and talk about the, uh, the expected conditions for the race.
16:47
So, um, that'll be, that'll be for sure on the card on Saturday morning. We'll be out there looking at the, uh, the, the course. But, um, the good news is [smacks lips] not gonna be boots in the mud this year.
16:57
It's gonna be dry it looks like, uh, Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Uh, so we are expecting a dry and fast track for the races on Saturday. Okay. And you were, you were dressed for the part.
17:08
I remember this well. Mystic Dan. [laughs] Mystic Dan ends up winning the Derby last year. Y- [coughs] can you provide us, pardon me, I'm getting emotional.
17:15
Can you provide us with some of the results of your handicapping? Uh, sure. It's, uh, it's a really, really good race this year. Um, there are at least 16 horses that have a non-trivial chance to win.
17:33
Um, the current favorite is jour- journalism. Uh, Big J Journalism coming out of California, uh, is your three to one morning line shot. He is about plus 270, plus 280 in the offshore market.
17:46
Um, that is a huge, huge, huge number for implied winning percentage, considering how good this field is in my opinion. Um, so I am almost certainly going to be against journalism.
17:58
Um, the, um, the reason journalism has, has this huge s- huge price is, uh, and I, it's not a huge price, but the reason he has this huge implied probability is, um- 旗下ese åt, составля字幕
18:17
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25:38
That you- No, I'm not. You, you are. You are. Okay? I am not. If I get to recruit the 99, there's gonna be a lot of planning involved. Yes.
25:45
If, if you could plan a coordinated military strike on the gorilla, then okay, but that's not part of this. That's Jim's bones. [laughs] No. Coordinated military... By the way- Poor Jim...
25:57
would you like, would you like really quick 30 seconds of hilarious open bets in my Caesars account? Oh, please. These are the open bets. Yeah. I love doing this. Yes. They're still open. Uh, Giannis to win MVP 35 to 1.
26:07
Oh, maybe. Still a chance. But yeah, d- done or not done yet, Gill? You answer, okay? Luka Doncic 17 to 1 to win MVP. Ah. Nah, yeah, that's not gonna get there either.
26:15
Uh, there are three Tyler Hero to win Most Improved Player awards at 55 to 1. Yeah, pretty sure that's not a winner either. Good number. Yeah. Uh, Cornucopian 66 to 1 to win- I-... the Kentucky Derby.
26:27
Derby hasn't happened yet. You never know. Uh, and then the Oklahoma City Thunder plus 120 to win the Western Conference. That one could win. That one could win. That one's got legs.
26:35
Um, Drew Dincic joins us once again, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. All right, Drew, we got a lot to get to, so let's, let's try to, uh, we'll try to do brief on this.
26:42
One, uh, reaction to, real briefly, Defensive Player of the Year NBA ends up Evan Mobley. Your thoughts are? Hmm. [laughs] That's a brief response. Uh, I, hmm. Yeah. I don't know. I, I d- I never saw it.
26:56
I'm s- I'm glad, happy for him. He's a great young player. I would've given him sincere consideration for Most Improved Player and not Defensive Player of the Year, but, um, voting is a weird, you know? Yeah.
27:07
The fact that so much coalesced around him right in the wake of the Wemby, um, injury was, uh, enough to get him across the line, I guess.
27:15
Um- How did- I th- I love the Ca- uh, separately though, like love, love what the Cavs are doing. Yes. Well, we'll get to that momentarily. I wanna crescendo to the NBA. Yeah. How, how did your NFL draft go?
27:25
Oh, incredible. It was an incredible draft. You had a great draft. Good for you. Incredible draft. Uh, yes. I- What was, what was the big winners for you in the end? I, everything I bet. [laughs] Everything you bet.
27:35
Ooh, wow. I think I had like one, I think I had like one, I think I had like one loss and it was, um, a super long shot, and then, um,
27:44
I had found money in stuff like sh- I had Shooter Sanders to the Browns at six to one for April nine. Oh my, oh my goodness. I don't even remember, I don't even remember why I bet that, but that was like to win 500.
27:53
It was, you know, not, not, obviously it's not, you know, not, not r- not, not, not buying a boat with this money, but, uh, you know, still like it was like after the Browns took Dillon Gabriel, I was like, I, I literally like messaged somebody.
28:05
I was like, "Oh, I hope, hope Shooter just goes undrafted now so that I can get my $82.9- [laughs]... 82 dollars and 92 cents back," you know? Yeah. And, uh, and then he goes to the Browns anyway. I was like, "Wow. Wow."
28:16
So, you know, no, the NFL draft betting, basically everything broke in my favor. Uh, basically the same for, uh, for Luke, uh, Vegas Refund as well. Like his, his stuff was unbelievably hot. Um- Yeah...
28:29
avoided any kind of damage related to the, uh, the Jags trading up to two, which was nice. Um, that was a really, really good Thursday. Yeah.
28:36
You, you had the, the general narrative you had right, which is the last 48 hours was all noise in the end. The whole- Yeah... Gent to the Jaguars or Tet- Tedarrell McMillan to the Jaguars, all of that.
28:47
Uh, any tennis left today for you in Madrid? [lip smacks] Uh, I'm just sweating out the, uh, the Jack Draper future for Madrid, period. Uh, he comes through one-zero against Berrettini- My word...
28:59
who retired after losing the tie break. Walkover. Yes. Um, like what I'm seeing from Draper so far a lot.
29:04
Uh, I still think that, uh, if you can find a, a wonk, you know, a decent price on him, I, I still think he's your winner. Yeah. Matteo Berrettini did not have to lay down and Draper walk over him.
29:14
I know, I know that was your next question. [laughs] They need to add that rule. Come on. Um, okay.
29:19
T- to the NBA, um, how's that going for you, and what do you like tonight in a quartet of games, three of which are potential closeouts? Yeah.
29:29
Uh, overall up on the playoffs so far after an ice cold start, so I'm pretty happy right now.
29:34
Um, I think the major takeaways I've had so far, I'm, I've, I'm still not sure why the market is a little bit shy pricing these Cavaliers team. They are a super team.
29:45
Um, I think my fare for them against the, the Pacers is gonna be about minus 605.
29:50
Um, I think minus one and a half games, uh, against the, uh, actually minus two and a half games against the, uh, um, the Pacers is gonna be a bet 'cause I think that series is mostly 4-0, 4-1 outcomes.
30:03
Um, Celtics I do think come through tonight and close out the Magic, and, uh, I think they ultimately will face the, uh, the Knicks, uh, and likely come through 4-1 as well.
30:13
My price for that series is kind of similar ballpark as my Cleveland minus 605 against Indiana. So, um, the second round in the East to me looks a little bit, uh, a little bit snoozy, um, a little bit chalky.
30:26
Uh, the, uh, the West right now, um, I, actually I should mention it. Uh, as far as plays tonight, I very much like Detroit plus the five and a half points, but I think that's probably a closeout game.
30:38
Um, I laid the Clippers minus one and a half. I think they ultimately win in six. Uh, Indiana, I'm, haven't laid the eight, but I, I probably will. I think Milwaukee's drawing dead.
30:50
Uh, and then tomorrow I laid four and a half with the, uh, Houston Rockets against Golden State. I took the five and a half points with the Minnesota Timberwolves. I bet over 210.
31:00
Um, Minnesota I think can close out tomorrow, but maybe it takes till game six. Uh, Minnesota I think is just neutrally the better team than the Lakers, and they're still not being priced like that.
31:10
Um, and, uh, Golden State to me might be in a spot of difficulty despite being up 3-1.
31:17
Um, I like some things about what the Rockets can do in terms of shuffling their lineup, and Ime Udoka basically has admitted he needs to do that, which is good.
31:26
Um, which is why I think the Rockets game four, or game five is a good bet, and why they could force a game seven. It wouldn't shock me.
31:33
And now of any of the series to get to game seven, I think that's the most likely just because I'm not buying this Nuggets potentially being revived really at all.
31:42
Um, and, uh, I think Golden State Houston game seven would be a fun opportunity to see what kind of price we get on a total. Like, like would they, would they, would they go as low as 180? You know? Like it's possible.
31:55
It has f- first to 90 kind of vibe to it. Um, but, um, the Warriors to me look like they're running outta gas, and it's a little bit concerning.
32:02
And, uh, I kinda like the adjustments that Ime has left in his, uh, in his back pocket for, uh, lineups for the Rockets. So we'll, uh, we'll, we'll continue to monitor that situation.
32:12
But, uh, if the Warriors do come through, I think they are in deep, deep trouble against the Minnesota Timberwolves team.
32:18
Um, and, uh, everybody I think is, uh, miles behind the Oklahoma City Thunder right now in the West. What is a... I asked this earlier.
32:25
By the way, you did a great job of, of answering questions that I asked earlier on the show. So that was, that was awesome. That was very thorough.
32:31
The, if it is a Warriors Timberwolves, and I know you're, you, you're saying the Warriors have a lot of work to do here, but if it is a Warriors Timberwolves, after all both teams are up three to one, a six-seven matchup, if you will, with the T-wolves, the six getting home court, what would you price that series at?
32:47
Okay, let me pull that number up right now. Um, this is probably the one matchup that I just kind of a s- like gut says that the Warriors are in trouble. Um, my fair price says Minnesota minus 113 in that one.
33:03
But I think if, I think realistically you're probably gonna get around a pick them plus, plus 120 on, uh, on Minnesota there, just based on how there has been sort of a premium around Steph Curry and company.
33:15
Um, but, uh, I think they're in trouble in that series. If, if, if the Warriors were minus 175-ish or whatever they were against the Rockets, they will go all the way down to that against the T-wolves? Interesting.
33:28
Y- yeah, no, I think, I mean, the, the, the, the market has a lot more respect for Anthony Edwards and company than they have for the Rockets, period.
33:36
Um- The Rock- I think the Rockets were pretty much the seventh best power rated team, uh, only ahead of the Grizzlies of all the Western Conference playoff teams.
33:44
The Ro- the Rockets Warriors series is, is infinitely fascinating, and I'm with you, it's not over, and I'm a Warriors guy. Uh, even up three to one, the Rockets seem to control the boards at will. Um- Mm-hmm...
33:56
last night they shot terribly from the line. They missed 12 free throw attempts. That would've altered the outcome of the game, obviously.
34:02
Um, they seem to have just, uh, you know, Shane Gun can do whatever he wants, generally speaking, in all these games, and yet, and yet they're the Warriors.
34:12
So, you know, I know, I know it's an NBA hard opposition to be all about the, uh, all about the Clippers and all about the Pistons. The Pistons one isn't working out so well, even though that should probably be two-two.
34:22
It's fascinating. Been a great NBA playoffs, man. Been awesome.
34:26
Yeah, it, yeah, it, it has, it has been, uh, a, a lot of drama and, uh, again, like the Eastern Conference finals and the finals stand out as probably two of the potentially best series that we will, uh, we will get in the last 10 years.
34:39
Ooh, I love it. Congratulations on your NFL draft success. Drew Dintig, everybody, @whale_capper. Thank you, sir. Best of luck, guys. [upbeat music]
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