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Apr 30, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 30, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 30, 2024
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44:17
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you take it us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's up? Live from Bar Canada at the D. What's happening? Doing great, man. No power drills this morning. Ready to roll. Ah, free to do
0:32
unfettered radio. There's actually, like, nobody in here today. It's a little bizarre. [laughs] Please, please, come back drills. Um, okay.
0:40
On the show today, Drew Dinsick will join us to talk, uh, I don't know, we'll see if we can coax some tennis out of him. I don't know if that's gonna happen or not. NFL draft fallout- Mm-hmm...
0:50
let's just say, if he wants to say two words about that, 'cause he didn't have a good day. Maybe he wants to just wrap it up. Uh, and then NBA, we'll talk with him as well.
0:57
Plus he'll be the, uh, onsite and numbers game reporter live from the Kentucky Derby. And the big thing, the Kentucky Derby. Yeah. Yeah. Why are you looking so serious at me? Just, just us sending it out there. Oh, okay.
1:07
He's not going for any other reason, Gil. Kelly- Just for a numbers game... Kelly stared at me with a stern expression. Uh, okay. And then, uh, Paul Carr on the Champions League, Paul Spoor on baseball, and
1:18
the headline of today's show, the Guardians are still alive. It is April 30th. I don't know if you know this, this is the last day of April. It's a 30-day month. I mean, it did sneak up on me a couple times. We are live.
1:33
We are not there by any stretch. We'll go through the scenarios for circa players like myself and dead heat players alike coming up on the show af- after a unbelievable night of baseball.
1:47
I was gonna say, that went about as well as it could have for you, right? It went perfecto yesterday. Okay. [laughs] Yankees lost to the Orioles, which was always a possibility, right? It was in Baltimore. Yeah.
1:55
Orioles shut out the Yankees. Did they shut them out at the end? Yeah, I think they did, uh, two to nothing. And then, um, then you had the simultaneous games where the Angels came back
2:07
from a three to nothing deficit in the first inning to beat the Phillies. So the Yankees and Phillies are of no matter to those of us at Circa. We'll get into it later. And then, uh,
2:16
the big one, the Atlanta Braves and the Seattle Mariners dueling no-hitters through six, the Braves manufacturing a run- Oh...
2:26
to go up one to nothing, and you're like, how many different ways can this ball club win baseball games? And Mitch Haniger, San Francisco Giant great, kidding, two-run Jimmy Jack in the ninth. Let's just put it this way.
2:39
So everybody at the Aria Sportsbook- Let's go, Haniger...
2:42
Ari- Well, everyone at the Aria Sportsbook is watching the Lakers game on the big screen, and there's this totally obnoxious Lakers fan who's, like, making enemies with everybody, and then they go after him at the, when Denver finally wins, and he wants to fight him.
2:51
It's this whole thing, but I'm, they let me go up in the little VIP area, which is elevated. They can't see me, and when Haniger hit the home run- [laughs]... they didn't even know I was up there.
2:59
I let out this guttural scream, like I'm going bananas. Ah. And you could tell they were all like, 'cause it had nothing to do with the basketball game. They're like, "What? What just happened?"
3:08
Uh, okay, we'll get to that. I like that bar outside. I don't, I don't hang out in the sportsbook there very often. You are a total bar outside guy, yeah.
3:13
Well, I, uh, y- if you got a good TV set up and I can get a video poker in front of me- Yeah... but I'm, I'm good. Okay, we'll get to that. NBA last night. Uh, let's get to the ones real quick that we can get to.
3:23
OKC completes the sweep against New Orleans. One, two, three Galveston for the Pelicans, the Zion-less Pelicans, and, uh, this Western Conference great playoffs that we were expecting, uh, sure hasn't happened yet.
3:35
We get a sweep with the T-Wolves. We get a sweep, uh, with OKC, and, uh, so there you go. The number one seed Thunder, first franchise playoff series win since 2016. Good on them. Yeah, great on them.
3:50
Um, I mean, I think this is, like you said, no Zion, that totally changed everything for New Orleans, but hey, OKC, Minnesota, for, for all the doubters out there, it's a, it's a clean sweep in the first round onto the second round, where I think we're gonna get some better series, Gil.
4:04
Oh, I think we are. Celtics, uh, before that took down the Heat, no problem. They take a three to one lead now back to Boston to try to complete the five-game series.
4:14
They're 102 to 88 in a game that wasn't quite that close, to be honest with you. Derrick White went crazy in this game.
4:20
Um, the only thing though is this, and I r- I wonder if you remember this exchange we had a couple months ago. I said, "The only thing that can stop the Celtics in the Eastern Conference is a Porziņģis injury."
4:31
And you looked at me and you said, "Yeah, but everybody says, like, why is everybody saying Porziņģis get hurt?" Porziņģis got hurt. Yep. And people were of course doing the, uh, the, "Hey, was it an Achilles injury?"
4:39
I'm apparently the official Achilles doctor- Of course he is... of the United States of America. Yeah. He had a calf strain. We have to go to you on that.
4:45
He had a, he rolled his ankle the previous possession, so that already makes you think, well, it's not an Achilles. It was whatever happened there.
4:51
Plus, he had that tape over his calf, so you couldn't really see what was going on with the calf, and then they never really showed a shot of his face afterwards that I saw, which you, you need that confusion.
5:00
So- He w- Yeah, he was grimacing- Yeah, so-... on the sideline. MRI today, I- they- they're saying that it's not that, and I don't believe it is either, but I mean, that's a big loss if it's extended. Yeah, it sure is.
5:13
Um, you know, it, it's, I think he's got time. You know, how, how much is it gonna matter? When's it gonna matter?
5:20
Those are the big questions this time of year, but yeah, man, I mean, that was the big addition for them this season, and sure, they've got more than enough firepower still that you could make an argument for that they could easily get through the Eastern Conference without him.
5:31
Um, but like you said, that was the big addition, big addition this year with all the other pieces, um, around, around, uh, Brown and Tatum and him. And yeah, man, that would be big if he mi- he missed significant time.
5:43
And then the big one last night, the Nuggets and the Lakers.
5:47
Nuggets look, looking to close out the Lakers with a gentleman's sweep in what is the most ungentlemanly of gentleman sweeps based on the fact that the Lakers ended up leading in this series 76% of the time
6:00
4:11 left in the game, 95-95. Jamal posterizes LeBron. 97-95 Nuggets. 97-95 Reeve- Reeves. Bounce, bounce. Good. We're tied at 97. Murray drives the whole. 99-97 Nuggets. 99-99 now, 3:04 left.
6:15
AD called for a foul on a Jokic bunny. Lakers challenge it, win the challenge, but lose the timeout. A horrible rule in the NBA where on your second challenge, even if you win, you lose a timeout. Bookmark that.
6:29
Later, Jokic baby runner. 101-99, 2:36 left. Nuggets on top. Reeves then from three, and the Lakers are on top. 102-101 with 2:12 left. KCP from eight. Moment might have been too big.
6:40
Ball goes seven, but grazes the front of the rim right to Jokic who lays it in. 103-102 Nuggets, 1:46 left. LeBron r- uh, tough to the rack in traffic. Lays it in. 104-103 Lakers. 1:33 to go.
6:51
Could that have been the last field goal? As a professional. We'll get to that momentarily. Murray elbow jumper, no good. Gordon fights off both LeBron and D'Angelo, gets the board back to Murray from three. Bottom.
7:02
106-104 Denver, 1:06 left. Reeves misses a six-footer. Jokic misses a four-footer. LeBron fouled by Porter Jr. Hits both free throws. 106-106, 26 seconds to go.
7:11
Denver does not call timeout just like they didn't in game two. This time Murray fading to his left in midair. Hits a 15-footer with 3.6 left. Lakers no timeouts left. Remember that challenge?
7:22
LeBron impeded by Jokic, gives it up to Taurean Prince. Half court heave, no good. No foul either. They weren't gonna call that. Ballgame, series Nuggets in one of the strangest gentleman sweeps ever.
7:34
And somebody asked me yesterday on Twitter, "What is the origin of a gentleman sweep?" And somebody, uh, they traced it back to a blogger, uh, at CBS Sportsline in 2011.
7:41
It's actually a dude on Twitter in 2010 that they saw before this. Some random dude's like, "I call that a gentleman sweep." Um, plus 38 the Lakers were in the first half in this series.
7:53
They led by at least nine points in every game, and they led at halftime in every game. And Jamal Murray, who hits the game-winner in games two and five. This is from Nick Wright over at Fox Sports.
8:04
I thought this was an interesting tweet. And Nick Wright is, like, the biggest Lakers apologist and biggest LeBron guy there ever is. So for him to, uh, come out and be so, uh, I guess gracious about it.
8:16
But he was really, I think, a great tweet about putting Jamal Murray in context. He says, "Jamal Murray is one of the most unique players in NBA history.
8:23
Zero All-Star appearances, zero All-NBA teams, no regular season accolades at all, yet only MJ, Wilt, and AI have more 50-point playoff games than Murray.
8:34
He's got one iconic playoff run under his belt, two other awesome ones, and now this year with a true walk-off buzzer beater and another near buzzer beater and 32 points on one leg. Legendary." I think that's accurate.
8:47
Wasn't gonna play. Had a calf injury. Emotional conversation with Malone, Coach Malone before the game. "Uh, I'll play." And boy, did he ever. Malone didn't want him to go. Sounded like the Nuggets didn't want him to go.
8:59
Uh, Jamal Murray's one of the... I know we talk about these e- everybody gets the playoff tag, or aren't they even doing a commercial on it now, like making fun of it?
9:06
But like Jamal Murray in the playoffs- Not a thing... is a different thing. Sorry. Yeah. Like, he is a different guy in these, in these big time moments.
9:13
Like you're just talking about the walk-off buzzer beater shots [laughs] like he makes over and over again. There's not a lot of guys you'd say you'd rather have in that position than him.
9:22
Well, we have one conference semifinals set now. And by the way, do you wanna run the La- we wanna run the bl- little... I can't even say it. Yeah, yeah. LeBron- The LeBron sound first before we move on to that? Yeah.
9:33
LeBron exiting the season, you know, not making anything dramatic and- No, not at all... leaving it up to the future. So LeBron after the game. This would've been your last game with the Lakers? Um,
9:46
I'm not gonna answer that. Appreciate it. All right, well- And he's out. [laughs] This, there's bad audio, but he was asked, "Are you gonna be with the Lakers, uh, next year?"
9:55
He was like, "Mm, I'm not gonna answer that." Um, he's done this before. He knows exactly what he's doing. Um, he ain't leaving LA. He's just setting it up so that he can get whatever he wants with management.
10:08
Let's get this guy, let's get that guy. Yeah, I mean, he does- It's LeBron... like you said, he does this every time. Yeah. It's always calculated. He knows exactly what he's saying.
10:15
He knows ESPN's gonna run that soundbite, uh, soundbite 900 times between now and the next season. Um, I don't know what happens with this Lakers team. Sure, there's all the Bronny James stuff out there.
10:24
Um, you know, I, I would assume LeBron is back, but man. By the way, how about that thing where, like, Michael Porter Jr hits AD's arm and then he crashes to the ground as if he's been shot?
10:34
Haven't we seen that before with him too where it's like, did he really get hit that hard? Oh, it was like... That was weird. I was like, I, I- It's the second time... I guess he had a stinger or something, right?
10:41
Didn't we see that last year also? Yeah. Where it happened in the playoffs. We're like, what happened to him? Well, I, it looked weird. I, I mean, if, if, if...
10:48
I, I won't re- I'm not gonna entertain this for long because I really don't think it's the last we see of LeBron James, but man, if we do, it is not age that forced him into retirement. No, he's fantastic.
10:56
It is Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets that have forced him into retire. LeBron will be 40 in December. Yeah.
11:02
Uh, Minnesota-Denver, the two-three in the Western Conference is set, and Denver's series price is north of $2, Kelly. Is this where... We're showing 230 here at DraftKings. Was this where you thought it would be?
11:15
Yeah, it's like exactly where I thought it was gonna be. I'm a little...
11:18
[laughs] I, I was itching to get in on, on something with Minnesota this price that was about right, right where I thought it'd be, and it's actually coming down a little bit.
11:26
At minus 210 a lot of places here in Vegas on Denver. Probably will just be a series I end up attacking, uh, uh, game to game. All right. I think Denver has an advantage in game one.
11:36
I might end up on Minnesota series price after that. We'll get Drew Didsick's thought on that price and everything NBA and beyond. Tennis, NFL draft. It's a numbers game at Vsiz, the sports betting network.
11:47
Guardians two coming up. Back on a numbers game live from Bar Canada at The D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. One correction, by the way. It wasn't Mitch Haniger, it was
12:03
Garver, Mitch Garver who hit the home run. I was so out of my mind. [laughs] I was like, "Yeah, whatever. Whoever hit it." [laughs] I was like- Get your Mitchs right, okay? What's that? Get your Mitchs right.
12:16
Uh, Minnesota Twins great Mitch Garver, it should be pointed out. Um, so thank you for everybody making that correction. Um,
12:22
but I also buried the headline when I was talking about we're gonna update the scenarios for both Circa bettors and for, um, dead heat shop bettors on this Guardians March, April bet. So you know how I said
12:36
I wasn't going to make a May bet, most wins in May, 'cause at this had been so mentally exhausting, and surely whatever I do in May is not going to be nearly as exciting. The odds aren't gonna be nearly as long. Yep.
12:50
Chances are we aren't gonna get nearly as close to the finish line. You did say all this, yep. Yeah. [laughs] Let me just show a tweet before we get to Drew. This is, uh, from Mr. Lucky. Now, Mr.
13:01
Lucky, uh, I love you, and I hate you. Um, I'm kidding about the hate, but you, you'll understand what I mean here. I had no ins- Peer pressure...
13:08
I had no intention of getting in on this, and I, and I did m- I did s- hold true to my promise that I would not do it at a dead heat shop, okay?
13:16
But apparently, not apparently, evidently, middle of the day yesterday, uh, Circa put up their numbers for the first time for most wins in May, and Mr.
13:25
Lucky on Twitter, Mr._Lucky_777 to be exact, he, uh, throws this up with an LFG, and posts a screenshot of several teams in the most May wins market at Circa in Major League Baseball.
13:40
And my only response was, after looking at it- [laughs]... oh, no. So ladies and gentlemen, not only will we update the Ap- the March, April Guardians play, but I will reveal my play for May as well.
13:54
Dear God, I can't believe I'm doing this again. Drew Dincic joins us, everybody.
13:57
He's the host of not one but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molator, Dincic Classic, and of course, the new Dincic, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher.
14:05
He joins us now from his lair in the LBC, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Drewsky, how you doing, man? Not too bad. That Orioles, uh, 11 to 1 is kind of tasty. Uh, Orioles playing some pretty good baseball right now.
14:17
I don't know. And I'm, I'm a- I'm, I'm intrigued to see where you're going here. Yeah, Samich on the show yesterday s- said he might play the Blue Jays 28 to 1. I think he did.
14:24
So he took the Blue Jays 28 to 1 most wins in May. Um, before we get to the derby, which I... By the way, you going to Churchill Downs for this? Yep, uh, getting on a plane tomorrow about this time. What a life.
14:36
What a life. Do you, uh, have one of them, uh, mint juleps? Do you, do you dress up for this, Drew? What do you do? Uh, dress up, yes. [laughs] That's part of the pomp and circumstance. Yeah. No question. Yeah.
14:47
Uh, mint juleps are disgusting. Yeah. Um, they are way too sweet of a beverage. They have, uh, some other alternatives there. The Woodford Spire is a pretty good one.
14:56
Um, but, uh, just in general, I, I like a, a drink with a little less heat when it comes to the sweet. Uh, and, uh, so for those reasons, one mint julep just for the tradition is about all I can do.
15:08
Um, because I, you know, look, like the flavor profile, it's fine, but the way they make them there is just, it... The simple syrup is just over the top. So, uh, I can't, can't do it. Uh, can't do more than one.
15:18
Any man who uses the phrase flavor profile knows what he's talking about. [laughs] Well, let's, let's bookmark that. We'll get to the 150th Run for the Roses here momentarily, and get your thoughts on the race.
15:28
Uh, but first, and then we'll see if you have any tennis, we'll talk NBA. Would you like to do a brief postscript on the NFL draft? It did not go- Oh, sure, sure, sure... did not go well for you- Yeah...
15:38
as, as you were very transparent about. Um, what ha- happened? Well, uh, so first of all, it should be very clear that, uh, uh, I take draft betting very seriously because of just historical kind of, uh, reasons.
15:52
And, uh, it's embarrassing to lose on a market that is informational, but, you know, information based.
15:58
Uh, and last year I got caught up in solving the puzzle and like kind of overthinking things as opposed to just listening to the guys with the information who came through in spades on the day of, uh, and, uh, I paid the price for it last year.
16:11
So this year, my plan coming in was, well, I'm just gonna wait for the mail.
16:14
Um, and, uh, in general, uh, as far as getting l- decent sized betting, you know, bet, bets in on the draft, you're kind of stuck just betting the top.
16:24
Uh, like exact picks two three had something like, what, 10 times the limits per click, uh, that, uh, over-unders did and things like that offshore.
16:32
So, uh, I was really just kind of preying on those markets, hoping that the mail was correct, and it turned out it was, uh, it was all poison. Uh, and that is the way it goes. I will do it again next year.
16:42
Same approach, I think. Uh, and I, and ultimately, um, yeah, it was a, it was a rough, uh, rough way to go. I mean, the, the swinging for the fences on the, on the big prices failed.
16:51
And then, uh, and then to make things worse, uh, you had, uh, a late run of wide receivers that sunk my bridge jumpers- Oh, I, I've-... which, uh, really, really stung. So- I was- It's a... Yeah.
17:01
I was thinking of you the whole time that happened, Drew. Oof. Oof. I was like, "This dude does not deserve to have this happen to him as well." Oof.
17:09
[laughs] Um, I was like, uh, with apologies to Kelly Bidlin, who was the beneficiary of such things, so. Yeah, yeah. You, you know, you know when I knew I was in trouble was when the Chiefs traded up, uh- Yeah...
17:18
'cause then you're like, "Oh, oh God," like they're only doing this if it's to take a wide receiver, and it was. Yeah.
17:23
And it was like, oh God, that, uh, now like anyone who has eyes for a wide receiver is gonna reach and, and sure enough, you have the Niners of the world taking the Ricky Pearsalls, who I've learned is a player.
17:34
Ri- Ricky Pearsall. Um, yeah. Yep, from Florida. Yeah, yeah. And, uh, yeah, you know, it was, it's a, it was a, that was a tough way to go down.
17:41
Uh, and uh, I think I had some over nine out, nine and a half offensive linemen that didn't come through.
17:47
Um, my threading the needle on some of the, uh, over-unders for offensive defensive players missed 'cause there was a record number, what, 23 or something offensive players and, uh, yeah, it was, uh, it was just all around gross.
18:00
Uh, and uh, funny enough, like, um, Thur- Thursday night I was just on like full tilt. I was like, I just have to like close every account- Put away my phone. Like, I'm gonna do something stupid. [laughs] And so- Yeah...
18:14
uh, and then Friday, Saturday, Sunday rather than like get involved betting-wise, uh, ended up going to the, the Congressional Cup, uh, here down in Long Beach. We had a, you know, very famous sailing race.
18:24
You of course know it because the winner of the Congressional Cup gets the, uh, crimson blazer. Sure. Uh, and, uh- Sure. Who doesn't know that, Drew?
18:30
There was the 56th, yeah, 56th running of the crim- of the, uh, of the Congressional Cup in Long Beach. And, uh, this is sailing match racing.
18:37
[laughs] Uh, and there was no way to bet on it other than like $5 with my friends who were there watching with me.
18:43
And it was, it was kind of a good way to sort of reset and not, uh, just kind of tilt and dump, uh, you know, on, uh, considering the, uh, state of mind I was in after losing all the Met draft bets.
18:53
So, uh, it was a- I have- It was a fun weekend. And a hat tip to Chris Poole, uh, for taking down his second, uh- Sure... uh, Congressional Cup. And, uh- Well, K- Really and truly. It was a passing of the baton, uh, Gil.
19:04
Obviously. Uh, he beat, he beat seven-time world champion Ian Williams. I mean, like- Whoa, this man. This, this kid, this kid from Connecticut, he has got something.
19:11
I don't know if ultimately this will translate to Olympic success, uh, in Paris, but I will be b- I will be watching the sailing quite closely. [laughs] W- what's the specialty cocktail out at the, uh- Like what?
19:22
At the Congressional Club? [laughs] Okay, so they sell the little splits of, uh, champagne, and they give you a little funnel to put on top so that you can sip it like a, a gentleman, yeah.
19:33
Ian Williams won seven in a row, Kelly. Clearly that guy has not bet anybody in my tribe. [laughs] Um, let me just say this. Uh, one, first of all, Rufus is someone who I think sailed at Yale.
19:44
That be Rufus Peabody, I believe. Possibly. So like he tried to- Really? Yes. I think he tries to handicap sailing as well. Like, it's a whole thing.
19:52
Um, I, the last question is about the draft before we move on, and, and you, you answered in there. You answered it already, which is you said, you know, you want to...
20:03
Y- you will be betting this next year again, and I did wanna ask that r- just a little more clearly because one of the things that I said was, are, is anyone capable of having a good year in a draft now? Sure.
20:15
Um, our own Matt Humans just destroyed it, right? Yeah. But there was this, uh, so good on him. Uh, Will Hill did very well.
20:22
But are the days of just knowing that it's going to be a winner every year, them days are over, aren't they? Uh, yeah, maybe. I, I don't know. It's p- it's, uh, I guess it probably depends on the year, but for me, yes.
20:36
[laughs] Yeah. I guess that's the answer. Yeah. Uh, our friend, uh, you know, our friend from the, the Mega Pod, Luke, uh, he went like 15 and two or something. Did he really? We're in, we're in all the same chats.
20:47
We're in all, we're getting all of the same information, and he was just, uh, he was just picking his spots more effectively. Good for him. He was like, "Okay, this guy's gonna get buzz.
20:54
He's, he's gonna, he's going up boards. I'm taking a, I'm taking an under now. This guy's going down. I'm taking an over now."
20:59
And like, you know, uh, not, not to, you know, uh, like unit shame or anything, but like- Yeah...
21:05
and, and he's in a legal market, so he has access to more books, and, you know, you can, I'm sure he, he made, he made it all worthwhile.
21:11
But like while he was making most of his very, very good bets on the draft, I had one option, Mr. Irrelevant.
21:18
[laughs] Like I think that was kind of like the world that I was living in, uh, as far as, you know, just, you know, the menu of choices, so. When the wide- Uh, that- When the... W- I'm, I'm sorry to interrupt.
21:27
When the wide outs thing happened at the end, Drew, it was one of those moments, and if you've bet long enough and you have friends who bet, you know this feeling where you're like, "I'm not going to text Drew.
21:36
I'm just not going to text him." [laughs] "I'm gonna give him time, and he'll come out whenever he's ready to come out."
21:43
Uh, real quick in, uh, 60 seconds before we go to break, 'cause we'll talk NBA and Derby on the other side. Anything in Madrid, or you've, you've completely steered away from Madrid in tennis? No, no.
21:52
Madrid has been amazing. Are you kidding? Oh, good. Okay. This has been a great tournament. Well, you- Like shockingly good.
21:57
Um, and the match-ups left here are, are very im- very good and very important, I think, to watch. Um, uh, on the women's side, I have a big old bet on Aryna Sabalenka to, to ship at I think five to one.
22:09
She of course is the defending champion here. Uh, and she's got a match-up tomorrow again after, after ending the Danielle freaking Collins streak yesterday. Yes. Yes.
22:19
Uh, she's got a re- a rematch of last year's, uh, beat down on, uh, uh, Mirra Andreeva, uh, tomorrow, and I think she can come through.
22:25
So, uh, still a long way to go 'cause Iga's playing darn good tennis, but, uh, Madrid has been phenomenal. She sure is. Iga Swiatek, the world number one. All right. So Sabalenka against Andreeva.
22:35
He's got Sabalenka, uh, tomorrow. We'll come back. NBA, Derby with Drew. It's on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Kelly Bidlon, that's B-Y-D-L-O-N.
22:49
Trying to big you up, Kelly, for everybody listening out there. Thanks, man. Kelly Bidlon. Appreciate that. You're very welcome. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. This is from, uh, this is just from everybody, man.
23:00
Everybody's great. Rich PSM, "Tomorrow's my birthday and I've got my 18 to one Guardians dead heat, but I won't celebrate until my leader [laughs] sees some Mariners W. Hopefully easier than last night and Saturday.
23:12
Foresight should be rewarded. Go Gil." Uh, Michael Burns, "What percentage chance do you give yourself of winning this bet? Curious." I don't know, Michael. We're a dog. For sure we're a dog. Yeah.
23:22
I was thinking about the- We're a dog... I was thinking about the, if you had the dead heat, how would, how many teams would you accept? How many... [laughs] Accept? Yeah. Like, like would you take it now?
23:32
Would you take it? I do not accept this four teams, this four team tie. No, like, you know how we always do the would you take your money now, like take your money back without the betting?
23:38
Well, this is what I was asking earlier. Where, what position would you rather be in? I prefer mine. I'd rather be in yours too. But I want everybody to win this.
23:46
I hope I, if we can't, I hope the dead heaters get, will get some profit out of it. Yeah, just like, just like only one team, one team tie in or something like that. It would be okay.
23:55
Bro, could you imagine if like it just broke our way? Paper Mike, "DraftKings had a promo," yeah, so everybody, DraftKings did have the March, April.
24:02
Paper Mike, uh, "DraftKings had a promo for the April most wins where they offered you $3 per win back in free bet at the end of it, and I took the Braves eight to one the day before you posted yours."
24:14
He has vomit emojis, but hey, uh, Paper Mike, you might win it. Joe Ryan, DK did post. He got the Guardians at 50 to one. 50 to one. So did James Sott. He said D- DK did have it up for the Guards April bet, 50 to one.
24:28
Yeah, thank you for everybody correcting me. By the way, March, April is what it was. Uh, Jesse Welch, yes, DK did have most wins by end of April. I have Guardians 50 to one pre-flop, and 18 to one for mid-April.
24:37
LFG Cleveland Burps. [laughs] Adam Burke, I love you. That's great. Cleve TA, I love you. I love everything about you, Cleveland. Scott Weston, "Dear Gil Pachino, just when I thought I was out, you pulled back in.
24:50
Let's go Guardians." And then Chance Copper Pot, uh, yes, they did have that at DK Sportsbook. Most wins March, April.
24:56
Got it in there before you started talking about this market, so I was very excited that you jumped on board, especially considering you don't bet baseball anymore, Gil.
25:03
[laughs] Oh, and then Brad Billups talking about my May bet on the Guardians. He says, "Why not the Phillies for the May bet? They play Miami, Colorado, and the underachieving Gigantes for 13 of the games.
25:15
Washington, the Mets as well." I think you answered your own question with that underachieving Gigantes thing. Giants magic, it's coming for you. We'll see. Let's get to April 1st before we talk May.
25:27
Ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us from Austin, Texas. You can follow him on FanGraphs, where he does the Sleeper and Awake podcast, and writes in volume for that bible of baseball, Saber Metrics.
25:38
He, of course, can be followed on Twitter at Sporer. He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. It is Paul Sporer wearing his Birds hat. O's, baby. Not an old school. What, what would you call that? It's...
25:49
'Cause they had the, you know, the... I grew up on the friendly Oriole face hats. Mm-hmm. Those to me are still the best. But I guess they had a similar bird before that. This is the more newfangled bird.
26:01
I think this is supposed to be a, a, a throwback hat. I believe it was from their, uh, from their Mitchell & Ness series, uh, that, that they did. I picked this up in the Washington DC airport randomly.
26:13
Um- Oh, I know, I know. I think I know exactly the stand you're talking about, too. It has everything. Yeah. Um- Yeah, it was aw- I couldn't believe what they had in the airport, and I was like, "Must scoop."
26:23
You're talking National, not Dulles, right? Yeah, I think I know exactly where. All right, um, Birds. Let me just talk about, let, let's just talk about everything.
26:32
To win the World Series, 'cause we rarely talk about that, you and I, but right now, is there a team that is not among the usual suspects? And by the usual suspects, let's limit that to Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves.
26:46
Any w- any team beyond that, including the Birds, including the Orioles, Phillies, Mariners, Rangers, Astros even, 'cause they've gotten off to such a bad start this year. The Twins are surging.
26:58
The Cubs are looking great. Of course, the Guardians as well. Is there a team out there you'd take a flyer on? I mean, I would take, I would take a shot on the O's. I think they're, they're so unbelievably stocked.
27:10
I mean, they called up Heston Kjerstad this week. They have no room to play him right now. You know, things work themselves out, doesn't mean they have to trade. You know, we did this all winter
27:20
with Cincinnati about how they have to trade a bat. They have too many bats.
27:23
And then, uh, spring comes, injuries hit, and, you know, no shade, but also kind of shade, like Nick Martini getting plenty of burn at age 33, right?
27:32
Like, if they had traded Jonathan India and Spencer Steer because they had too many hitters, uh, they would be really struggling right now.
27:40
The reason I bring that up with relation to the O's is people think they have to make a trade. They don't have to. However, they are well-equipped. We saw it with the Burns deal when they dealt Ortiz and Hall.
27:52
They don't really feel that. Now, that doesn't mean that Milwaukee got nothing. It's one of those situations where the surplus of the O's is such that they can give D.L.
28:00
Hall Joey Ortiz for a rental Burns, and everyone feels like they gave nothing and got an ace. Well, they did get an ace. They did give something, though. They could do another one of those deals is my main point here.
28:11
If the pitching does not come back as expected, mainly with Bradish and Means, to join Burns and Grayson Rodriguez, they can go out and get another big arm. Not sure who that'll be.
28:20
It kind of depends how the market develops into the summer, and still barely feel it. Trade a Kobe Mayo. Trade maybe Kjerstad himself.
28:28
Kyle Stowers is a 26-year-old who could go be in the middle of at least 12, 13 lineups. So they still have a lot of flexibility, and they're already an excellent team.
28:39
So yeah, I would say the O's among the, the, you know, non-usual suspects. They're about to beat down that door and make themselves the usual suspect.
28:48
I would've bet, if I was allowed to bet on your answer, I would've bet on the Brewers. Brewers 45 to one. I d- I do love those Brewers.
28:56
You know, this was a team that I thought wasn't getting enough credit in the off-season. I think it's because they traded Burns. I get it, and obviously they were gonna be without Woodruff.
29:04
And hey, that pitching is a little bit scary. It's Freddy Peralta and a, and a band of guys that I could throw some fake names at you, and you might not know if they were the real pitcher or not.
29:14
[laughs] Tobias Myers, congressman or fourth starter for the Brewers. [laughs] Who can say? Uh, can be, just never know there. But Colin Ray, Joe Ross, Tobias Myers, Bryce Wilson, solid guys for the back end.
29:26
But that's the two through five right there. So that's my issue with that ball club right now. They themselves could go out and make a move.
29:32
They don't have nearly the depth that the O's do, but they have a good system that they can trade from, uh, and go get some pitching if they need to.
29:40
It was a retool, not, not a rebuild this year when they moved, um, when they moved Burns. I do like that lineup, though, and I think that in that Central, they're gonna be frisky all year, the Brewers. I agree.
29:51
I'm gonna go second term congressman is the answer to that question. Um- Yeah. Okay, let me ask you about a couple players. I did Cy Young yesterday with, uh, Borchardt. I'll, I'll actually ask you about that too.
30:00
But first, Elie Dela Cruz, 13 to one NL MVP. Would you consider that? I mean, I'm, I'm open to it. But w- you know, we're seeing the hot version again
30:15
and kind of forgetting maybe what, what, what that looked like when it slowed down last year. Listen, now I came in being against Elie Dela Cruz from the fantasy perspective.
30:25
He was a second round pick, and hey, that's working out, a- and how so far with eight homers and 18 steals.
30:32
It's a profile that we've seen before that just kind of concerned me with the ton of swing and miss and no real walks. Here's the key difference, though. His walk rate is up nearly 2X, up to 14%.
30:42
And if he has more control of the strike zone, I am less concerned about the strikeouts. It's when you strike out 30-plus percent and you walk 7, 8% that I have some major concerns of those huge slumps.
30:53
Already early on right now we're seeing Elie Dela Cruz tighten that up a little bit. If that is real, if that sticks that he's gonna take walks at a 12 to 14% clip, that is a whole new dynamic.
31:04
So to answer your question, yes, th- there, there is reason to look at that as a potential MVP candidate because he is so electric.
31:11
This team a- is capable too, so even though we don't think that the, the team context should really bring guys in or out of the MVP conversation, the simple fact is that it does.
31:21
But at least Cincinnati should be sticking around all year to kind of keep Elie in that playoff chase as well, because that is a big deal for some of the voters unfortunately. Okay.
31:31
And I asked Borchardt about this yesterday. I'll ask you about it. NL Cy Young. Logan Webb is 8 to 1, and Shota Imanaga, whose FanGraphs page is just a thing of beauty, 20 to 1. He looks incredible right now.
31:47
I still like Logan Webb quite a bit. That's kind of the guy that I'm riding with right now. Me too.
31:51
Um, weirdly, I mean, I don't know if we're gonna get to it or not, but, you know, if you ask about DraftKings today, he, he's only at 8,300. I don't, don't really understand his price today.
32:01
He's like the ninth highest guy out there. I'm easy all over that. Love what Shota Imanaga's doing, but again, it's early. Now,
32:09
what we saw last year when, when Senga came over was he struggled early, then dialed in and took off.
32:15
I, I wonder if it's gonna be a little bit of the reverse this year where Imanaga's great early, but then as the weather warms up, the ball starts flying. He'll, he will have some regression.
32:23
I'm not saying he's gonna fall apart, but home runs are his main concern, and that's kind of the quickest way to really scale an ERA up.
32:31
So I really, really want to see some more before I really get on the Imanaga train as far as a Cy Young bet goes. Love what he's doing.
32:37
He's been a fantasy bargain at this point, serving you well in DFS, been great for the Cubs, all of that.
32:43
But as far as Cy Young, I stop a bit short because we haven't really seen the warm weather or the wind blowing out much in Wrigley to know if that home run problem is going to be quelled or not.
32:53
DFS, can you do it in 20 seconds? Sure. Again, uh, Webb, way too cheap. I, I like the DraftKings and I love the two pitchers. Cole Regan's 7,800, also like 12th or 15th on the board there. Go for those two guys.
33:06
Uh, there is a, there is no game in Coors if I recall correctly. Be careful with Cubs-Mets. A lot of rain potential there. And definitely attack, uh... I'm sorry. You gotta attack Mike Soroka. I like him.
33:18
[laughs] I root for him, but you gotta go Minnesota Twins to stay hot against the White Sox as far as your hitters. God, could you imagine if there was rain in Seattle tonight? Oh, that would be spectacular.
33:26
Thank you, Paul. Yeah. Appreciate it. Take care, guys. Thanks so much. Talking about the cards bet, of course. NFL rookie of the year and NBA next.
33:38
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33:44
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33:52
New customers bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code V-S-I-N, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil and Kelly from, uh, Bar Canada here at the D.
34:03
Uh, Michael Montesano checking in, uh, letting me know also that I was, uh, just sort of instinctively dead on about the A's as it turns out. He says, "Per team rankings, projected wins,
34:14
just one place that projects total wins. Colorado 54.2, the White Sox 54.5, the A's 62 on the button." Um- So yeah. Yeah. It's the- Like seven and a half more. Yeah. You know?
34:28
Rockies and White Sox are just the worst of the worst. Uh, we get tweets. This from a Brian M.
34:34
"After the German soccer conversation sending a shiver down your spine, it's ironic that Paul Carr said it would be difficult to go to Paris and get a win since, you know, history." [laughs] Too soon, Brian. Too soon.
34:45
Uh, Mr. B.
34:47
"When the Guardians win tonight, if the Mariners take the lead, you can take the Braves plus one and a half runs on the live line or pregame or adjusted line with heavy juice and guaranteed profit or scoop the pot.
34:55
Good luck." Yeah, it's not that clean because it's only a 90-minute stagger, so you don't know if Cleveland's winning. You know? Oh, 90-minute staggered first pitches? Yes. Yeah, yeah. [laughs] We're, we're a p- we're...
35:13
To answer your question mathematically, we're a plus 420 dog to win. Okay. Plus 420 dog. It's a significant dog.
35:21
But I would argue that Houston should not be as nearly as big a favorite as they are against Carlos Carrasco and the Guardians.
35:29
And again, I know Carlos Carrasco has been shaky, but Hunter Brown has been the shakiest of the shaky for the Astros. And then Luis Castillo of the Mariners,
35:39
I mean, he's like a top 10 Cy Young guy, so if he's like good Luis Castillo, anything could happen. But it's the Braves. Uh, you can't expect to win. You can just hope it falls your way.
35:48
So are you do- are you doing anything more hedging wise before game action tonight, or no? I, I honestly don't know what I'm doing. Okay. [laughs] Because I don't, I don't f- on the one hand, I don't feel compelled.
35:59
Right. Right? But people are so, "Well, uh, I know you locked in something, but you gotta lock in more." I mean, if- Uh, I don't know if I do...
36:07
I mean, you would maybe have the opportunity Guardians win live bet Right, the Braves game later Yes, yes To do something like that. It would be nice if one game was complete- Yeah...
36:17
and then you could focus on the second game. Yeah. Yeah, things would be a lot simpler for you- Yes, they would... if it was a [laughs] early- Yes, they would... early afternoon or something. Yeah.
36:23
But the fact that we could literally get... If the Guardians win, that's a big if, if the Guardians win, I have good hopes about it, though,
36:31
um, there's a reason we bet on them in the first place, that we would get to the very last game of April with a decision. And- It's wild, man. It's great.
36:40
It's a great bet Uh, before we get to the NBA, NFL Rookie of the Year, we talked about this briefly last week. Oh, by the way- Can we shout out Greg- Greg Lake real quick? Greg Lake, everybody. Yeah.
36:48
Thank you for the Masters cups. Yeah, man. Crow's Nest. He didn't believe that Matt Brown was gonna bring us anything, so he, uh, said he was- Is that what he said? Yeah, he said he brought us a couple cups.
36:56
And you know what, Greg? You were right, as far as we know. [laughs] Uh, Caleb Williams is your short shot, 2-1. Marvin Harrison Jr., 6-1. Jayden Daniels plus 650.
37:07
So Jayden Daniels, because everybody knew where he was going, or pre- pretty much figured he was going to Washington in the end, his odds remain basically the same as they did pre-draft. Now, JJ McCarthy is 8-1.
37:18
That moved a little shorter. That got a little shorter. So four quarterbacks of the... No, excuse me, three out of four of the top are quarterbacks.
37:24
Caleb Williams, uh, obviously the number one pick, going to a good situation in Cleveland. Uh, excuse me, in Chicago. Got Cleveland on my mind. Chicago with great receivers. Mm-hmm. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze.
37:38
Um- But, like, you could cross that name off right away. It's too short. It's too short. No, no, I'm not even going with Caleb Williams. I'm going with Rome Odunze. Like, he's not winning it before Caleb Williams is.
37:47
Oh, we didn't even get down to bottom. What you're referring to is Rome Odunze. He's 22-1. Right. I would agree with you. For- I haven't really thought about that before- For-... but, like, it's- Right.
37:54
For Rome Odunze to win it, either, God forbid, Caleb Williams would have to get hurt and somebody else would do it, would be a quarterback, or such a ridiculous percentage of Caleb's numbers would have, would be Rome's.
38:07
Right. And even in that case, they wouldn't give it to Rome. Even, even in that case. You're right. So he's probably the worst pick on that board, in some respects.
38:14
Um, but Malik Nabers at 12-1 for the Giants is the fifth shortest shot. Drake... B- Shorter than Drake May with the Patriots at 16-1, 'cause New England's not supposed to be any good.
38:24
How about Xavier Worthy still sitting there at 16-1? We talked about that. And Bo Nix, of the quarterbacks drafted, um, with apologies to Michael Penix Jr., who is not listed, because he won't start, Kirk Cousins will.
38:36
Bo Nix 16-1, starting for the Broncos. He's, Penix is still only, like, 40-1, which is shocking. Like, that should be- Oh, he's... Yeah... what, 200-1, 300, 500-1.
38:46
Um- How many, how many bad games would it take for Cousins to have before people are like, "Penix"? Oh, boy. [laughs] Not many. Not many. Yeah. Three in a row- Three in a row... to start, to start the season.
38:58
I think that's it. Yeah, yeah. I think that's the answer. Um, I, this part fascinates me. I, like, I've already made two bets. I've made two bets. Bet Worthy. Bet Worthy Friday on the show.
39:07
I think I brought it up Friday, but maybe not. Keon Coleman I bet l- later at long odds. Oh. 50-1, 60-1. Super, super excited to play real football next year.
39:16
He's [laughs] yeah, he's excited to play real football, going to Buffalo. Could be the guy for Josh Allen. Uh, I like both of those. And there's still... Like, Jayden Daniels at over 6-1 just staring you in the face.
39:27
That's, to me, that's... I mean, now, again, homerism, little bit, right? But that's the best bet to me. I, I, I don't disagree.
39:33
Just because you are a quarterback who will start immediately, so you have the opportunity, the path is right there for you to win Rookie of the Year at good odds.
39:44
I wanted to jump on, I wanted to jump on Worthy and Coleman before they moved, 'cause I had a feeling they'd move at least a little bit.
39:50
Um, Daniels I might still, I might still add him, Gil, before season starts, but I'm, I'ma wait for the rest of the shops here in Vegas to open up numbers and actually compare.
39:58
[laughs] Like, we've got, like, two shops we can compare right now. Oh, man. When we get legalized sports betting. [laughs] Uh, do we have Defensive Rookie of the Year, too? Yeah, we do. All right. We do.
40:05
Good luck on that. Which those have, those have shifted. Um, when we first looked at those- Uh-... I feel like there was a tie at the top. Dallas Turner's, like, b- moved into the significant favorite. 4-1.
40:18
Did he go eighth, by the way? I'm curious. No, he did not, Gil. Oh, okay. Did something happen at eight that I should know about? That would've been cool. [laughs] That would've been cool.
40:26
Uh, Latu Latu of the, uh, Colts, 7-1, is the second shortest shot. Quinyon Mitchell of the Eagles, 10-1. And then Jared Verse, 11-1 with the Rams, out of FSU, of course.
40:40
Chop Robinson, Byron Murphy, Terry Arnold of the Lions, Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, Kool-Aid.
40:47
I'm not saying it's gonna be one of, you know, one of those two names at the top, but it sure feels like there's a lot of defensive backs in here. I have this just sixth sense about Quinyon Mitchell. Okay.
41:00
I, I love the Eagles today. I j- I just think he is awesome, and I hate to say that 'cause he's an Eagle. Mm. But I, I, there's no bet for me here, to answer your, to answer your final question.
41:08
Well, I, I mean, I, I, I, and why I brought that up about the DBs is just 'cause I al- I think you automatically look for a pass rusher- Yeah... right, of who's gonna rack up the sacks first to win this.
41:17
That's more likely than one of these guys. I mean, what do you need for a defensive back to win this award? He's gotta end up with four interceptions, five interceptions to even be in the conversation.
41:25
Oh, I think you, I think more. Wasn't that Tariq Woolen, right? Yeah. Just a c- you know, a couple years ago.
41:29
Um, that's how you end up in the conversation, so you gotta try to [laughs] figure out which one of these DBs- And as s- as soon as-... is gonna end up with that luck.
41:35
And as soon as Tariq Woolen stopped picking off passes, he faded- Right... off the list, right? Yeah. So I, I mean, there might be some value in some of the edge rushers, but... Man, that's the only thing I'd look at.
41:45
All right, Kelly, let's, uh, close how we began, with the baloncesto. Let's do it. Very simple game, this baloncesto. You put the ball in the hoop and you score. Mm-hmm. I don't know if you know that.
41:53
So tonight- Just do it more times than your opponent That's right. Tripleheader. Um- Beginning with the Knicks trying to close out the Sixers at the Garden. Four and a half point favorites total, 203 and a half.
42:05
Yeah, this one complete stay away from me. I think that's what Drew, uh, Drew said too. I, I would... I mean, Knicks, I just don't have them favored this big of a number. It's a closeout game, though, I get it.
42:14
I don't know what, I don't know what you're getting with Joel Embiid in the fourth quarter. You're finally getting the Jalen Brunson that I expected in this series.
42:21
Um, I mean, they, they, this, the Sixers should have a difficult time stopping him, and they have the past couple games. I'm not sure it's gonna stop, uh, uh, tonight.
42:28
At the same time, though, would we be surprised at all if Joel Embiid had a massive game- Nope... and this turned around? Nope. So this one's a complete stay away. Could be a massive game.
42:36
Could be his last game as a Sixer. Mm. We don't know anything. Uh, then Cleveland and Orlando, game five. Series not at an up at two a piece. The Cavs five point favorites.
42:43
Now it's ticked up half a point since we started the show. I did it. I did it last night. [laughs] I did it. I did it. I, I laid the four and a half with Cleveland. [laughs] It's the, it's the...
42:52
And this is the brain dead playoff analysis of, "Okay, this is, this is what they wanted, Gil. This is what they wanted. They wanted the Orlando Magic this entire time." They tanked for it. They tanked for it. You, I...
43:05
Drew's absolutely right, the Donovan Mitchell stuff is concerning, and he's, I, I think we're gonna hear more after this season finally comes down on what he's really been dealing with over the past, uh, you know, month, six weeks injury wise and trying to come back.
43:17
He struggled big time in Orlando. I really doubt... It, it, this is a pretty heavy lean to the under two for me. I'm not gonna play it.
43:23
I just, I think it's a real, real hard time imagining Magic replicating what they did on offense in Orlando.
43:29
Big thing, though, between, with this series and the Knicks and Sixers, I know you and I were texting about it a bunch, the rebounding's becoming a big thing again. Right.
43:37
Just like that Knicks Cavs series from last year. And then Pacers Bucks. Pacers trying to close out the Bucks, but it's at Milwaukee for game five. Pacers favored by four. You can't touch this. I can't. No.
43:47
I think, I, I think Drew Ditzik pr- put it perfectly of if I had to bet this- Yeah... it would be the Bucks side because I can't get there on this rating for the Pacers. I agree with that. But oh boy, is it a gamble.
43:57
Yeah. It really is. And the Pacers defense just isn't good. So there's a chance the Bucks just shoot, shoot lights out for a night and steal one. Watch how I do this right here. You ready? Watch this.
44:05
We've done all we can do. If you're on radio, Gojo and Golick are next. If not, if you're watching pictures, Best Bets is next. Enjoy, from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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