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Apr 3, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 3, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | April 3, 2024
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41:38
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:17
It is Kelly Midland, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, live from Bar Canada at the D Downtown Las Vegas. What's happening? What's up? What's up? Big night in the NBA, Gil.
0:27
[laughs] Big, big night, big morning. Uh, by the way, on the show today, speaking of NBA, JVT will join us, talk, uh, some NBA awards and beyond. Mm-hmm.
0:35
We got baseball with Marc Borchard, Jason Weingarten, basketball with Will Hill. Also some baseball from Will too. Uh, Michael Montesano on, on college hoops as well. Um, usually though, let me just start here today.
0:47
Usually my Twitter timeline, my X timeline, whatever you wanna call it. I'm never gonna get off Twitter, by the way. Hey. Um, is multiple sports, right? People are throwing baseball, basketball, football, whatever.
0:58
It's a, it's a potluck. Not last night. Last night it was nothing but Wembanyama tweets, 'cause people expect me to talk about this.
1:07
[laughs] Because as you said, Kelly, now everybody's outraged about this, but you said it yesterday that when I started talking about it, no one was even willing to have a conversation with me- Yeah... on the show.
1:18
All right. So Victor Wembanyama, this comes on the heels last night of Victor, uh, Victor Wembanyama in a loss to the Nuggets, going 23, 15, 8, 9 and 1. So 23 points, 15 boards, eight assists, nine blocks and one steal.
1:37
He had- In other words, two assists and one block shy of a quadruple double. A quadruple double. It's coming. It's coming. It's only a matter of ti- I thought it was gonna be last night.
1:46
If Ice- if Ice Cube said you mess around and got a triple double, what do you think he would've said about getting a quadruple double? Oh, I don't know.
1:51
I, I thought that game was gonna go to overtime and he was gonna get it. All right. So let me just... Uh, here's what I'm gonna try to do.
1:57
I'm gonna try to minimize the, the anger, and I'm just gonna try to do this by fact. This will probably fail 'cause I'll probably crescendo. Uh, most stocks this season, stocks, the cool term now for steals plus blocks.
2:10
Victor Wembanyama has 321 of those. Um, next is AD with 248. Anthony Davis, um, way behind at 248.
2:22
Wemby's blocks alone would be next [laughs] at 235, by the way, and then Chet Holmgren back to the stocks at 225. You a- I mean, the crazy part about that is I don't even...
2:32
The, the vast majority of those have come in the past two and a half months too. Where would Rudy Gobert, presumptive defensive player of the year be, you ask? I know I asked it. 188.
2:45
By the way, the 252 blocks, by the way, Wemby's at 250. He should be at 252, I think on, on, on blocks. Um, not 235. But the, his blocks alone, maybe it's 235. I- Get it together, Wemby Muse. Either way,
3:02
more than the last three defen- no, 252 is... I'm sorry. 252, last three defensive players of the year combined in blocks, 252. Wembanyama currently with 235.
3:13
That's the last three defensive player of the years combined in blocks, 252. Wembanyama with 235. By the way, he's the first player with 200 blocks, 200 plus blocks in a season since Gobert seven years ago.
3:25
Last player with 300 plus stocks, and remember Wembanyama has 321 in a season, AD back in the 2017, 2018 season. He has more stocks than any of the last nine players in their defensive player of the year winning season.
3:38
Still six games left in the regular season.
3:41
By the way, if you wanted advanced metrics, and I don't know that you do need them, but if you did, something called defensive box plus minus, Wembanyama 3.2, Gobert 1.7, basically doubling him up almost.
3:53
And then to the question, because these are all counting stats, the question of, oh yeah, well, how much did they all play? Well, Gobert played 69 games at 34.1 minutes a clip this year. Wembanyama 67 games at 29.3.
4:06
I've done the math for us. Gobert's played 389.8 more minutes of basketball than has Wembanyama. By the way, Wembanyama is now what? 11 to 1 to win defensive player of the year.
4:20
Like, this thing has gone-- It's going the other direction- Let's see if that moved here last night... than it should be. He was plus 350. 12 to 1. 12 to 1. Oh, sorry, I sold it short.
4:28
[laughs] He was plus 350 at some skins, four to one, I think in legal shops a couple weeks ago, maybe even a week ago. And I'll say this again, and now I'm starting to get angry 'cause I feel it, I feel it getting in me.
4:43
When he crushes the numbers next year because he's gonna play 33 minutes a, a game, let's say, right? Yeah.
4:49
Instead of the 29 he's playing now, and the team finishes, I don't know, 18th in defici- uh, defensive efficiency, the voters are gonna say, "Oh, well, we gotta give the defensive player of the year to Wembanyama," and poof, just like that,
5:04
the whole narrative of, you know, gotta be on a top defensive team to get the award's gonna vanish in thin air, period. I will be betting him MVP next year at any price. I don't care when it opens.
5:16
I know, I know how unlikely it is to win. That game last night was the, the peak of where I've seen Wemby's skills get to. A- and yes, it w- it has something to do with playing Jokic, but he is, he was incredible.
5:27
He blocked Jokic four times. Four times. He made Jokic dunk three times, which just, I'm gonna put it like that because Jokic never dunks. Jokic knows. He knows. Why does he need to dunk? Yeah.
5:38
Because there's a tall Frenchman coming to block him. Again, this is not like a disagreement on football awards, you know, Brock Purdy versus Lamar Jackson.
5:48
Everybody sort of understood each other, and even the people like myself who, who like Bro- Brock Purdy as the guy using advanced stats, when he had the four interception game, we all waved the white flag.
5:56
We knew it was over. Same thing with Spencer Strider versus Blake Snell, National League Cy Young last year. Those of us who
6:03
Talked about the advanced stats and how Striders were so much better than Snells, and Snell was a ticking time bomb, and Strider just ha- needed enough time to have for his to manifest.
6:12
It didn't happen, and so we understand why it went the way that it did. Strider didn't even get into the finals, finalists. This is insanity, absolute insanity.
6:22
So I was prepared to come in on the show today, and I was, I was prepared to say, "Brian Windhorst, Tim Bontemps, Zach Lowe, all you, uh, got awards in this market. Use your platform for good, not evil.
6:35
[foreign language] that you should talk about something besides the Lakers." And then I find out this morning that Brian Windhorst on, on his pod says he is finally voting for Wembanyama. There you go, Windy.
6:45
I don't know if he went as solid as that, but he, he kinda hinted that's where his vote's going right now. And, uh, yes, Tim Bontemps and [laughs] Tim McMahon were not very happy about it.
6:54
[foreign language] that you should talk about something besides the Lakers. By the way, once again, ladies and gentlemen, I have wrapped up the coveted Sephardic Jewish demographic.
7:02
[laughs] All right, so the other thing that happened this morning, I just don't wanna talk about it anymore because it's so ridiculous.
7:08
It's so ridiculous that he's not the pr- that, uh, Wembanyama is not the favorite in this, and that it's going the other direction I may add more to what I already have. Now,
7:18
also long awaited, the ESPN NBA MVP straw poll. This is Bontemps, right? Yeah, this is the final straw poll. This is his thing. Um, there are some things to talk about here, not, not at the top, though.
7:31
Nikola Jokic, uh, has a comfortable 300-ish point lead when you talk about first, second, third, fourth, and fifth place votes. Remember, it is a tiered point system.
7:42
Uh, Nikola Jokic over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who just stopped scoring 30 a game. He might be dinged up. Yeah, he is. Um, and so I think that's correct, right? Jokic should win his third in four years.
7:53
Shai Gilgeous his second. Here's where the interesting part comes. Luka's third. By the way, Shai has the most second place votes. Luka has the most third place votes. Obviously, Nikola has the most first place votes.
8:05
But the interesting thing about Doncic, he has only one first place vote. One. A breadstick for first place.
8:17
And I don't know, but when I hear people talking about MVP, at least in betting media, they give Luka way more of a chance, or have given him- Right... way more of a chance here, and this says he's got no shot.
8:28
Yeah, it was a Sunday, Monday, the odds completely flipped. You had SGA drift all the way out to, like, I mean, he's 20 to one s- right now at DraftKings. Luka got cut down to, like, five plus 550. Um, so yeah, I would.
8:40
I- Based off of this, I think that- that's one of the biggest things you can learn. No- don't go running to make Luka Doncic bets right now. Giannis is fourth, got the most fourth place votes.
8:48
Jason Tatum is fifth, got the most fifth place votes. All right, whatever. Joke. [laughs] Sure. Uh, here's where it gets hilarious to me, though. Not Brunson at six, but Anthony Edwards at seven.
9:01
And the reason that that's funny to me- [laughs]... is 'cause Michael Wilbon keeps talking about how he's got Anthony Edwards second and always considering him for first. Uh, here's Anthony Edwards' line.
9:12
None in fir- no first place votes. One second place vote. I think we know who that is. [laughs] Third, none. Fourth, five. Fifth, five. So there you are on an island. [laughs] Michael Wilbon with Anthony Edwards.
9:24
Gil and I both started chuckling as soon as Gil walked in. I didn't even notice it at first. He's like, "Well, I guess that's where Wilbon's is at." [laughs] I know where, I know where Wilbon's voting. Kawhi is eighth.
9:33
And Domantas Sabonis is interesting at ninth. Yeah. He's got three fifth place votes on a double double tear. That seems a little weak. We, we've got just so warped by the, the- Yeah...
9:44
triple doubles from Jokic and Luka and what Wemby's doing.
9:48
We haven't rec- We haven't given the, the tr- I, and I've been the guy not really jumping out, in on this too much, but, like, Sabonis' double double streak, the most since the NBA-ABA merger- Yeah...
10:00
is one of the most, at least talked about storylines of the NBA season.
10:05
And just because we don't really care about double doubles anymore, I guess, it's really sad to me though that he's-- Yeah, look, if I-- My top five, he would be, he would be getting my fifth place vote probably.
10:16
Sabonis. Just for, for recognition- Yeah... of what he did with that this season. Um, obviously we, we, we, we read your tweets, pardon me, throughout the show, but I just wanna read this one from Bi-Week Picks.
10:26
So if you use this straw poll as a, as sort of a indicator- Again, again, it's 100 media, it's 100 media members. I believe 100 media members. Not every one of them have votes. Some of them have votes.
10:37
Th- this is really just to give you a rough idea of what the media is looking at, at this race as. Yeah. And this is f- this is a good way of doing it. Yes. This is fairly accurate.
10:47
Uh, Bi-Week Picks, for instance, says, "Question, uh, to the futures masters." I think he's talking about us. "I have a substantial wager on Jokic to win the MVP ra- MVP race at about plus 450.
10:57
Do you see any utility or insurance edge on Luka? My concern is voter fatigue and Joker sitting some games of late."
11:06
But again, and so now that you see this, the answer to that would be, yeah, I wouldn't, I wouldn't touch it. Not for Luka anyway. I was gonna say, I mean, if any- Yeah...
11:14
if anything, maybe you're taking a little bit of, of, of Shai at 20 to one, but only because he's 20 to one. I, I, I don't even think I'd do anything with the ticket though.
11:23
And isn't this stupid that they took it away from Jokic last year just so he couldn't have three in a row? And now he's back. Ah, three of four. That we can live with, says the NBA voters. It's absurd.
11:33
JBT, let's play a little, uh, Should Win, Will Win with him on all these NBA awards, his thoughts on the NBA tonight, and College Hoops Final Four. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
11:43
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with the free VSiN daily newsletter.
12:06
In today's newsletter- Well, we got Tooly's take on the Final Four and Masters primer coming at you, released this morning at vsin.com. Check it out. Oh, wow.
12:16
Get expert analysis and the latest odds delivered straight to your inbox absolutely free. Visit vsin.com/newsletter to subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Uh, you see Tooly, the picture, uh, that they had?
12:26
Randy McKay and him went to, uh, Andiamo's last night here at the D, and Tooly's plate, they showed his plate. Like, he had a porterhouse- [laughs]... and, like, massive gnocchi, and he, like, ate the whole thing.
12:36
Uh, I think he, I think he's one of those, uh, he's one of those guys that, like, can tackle, like, the 40-ounce steaks. Amazing. We get tweets that beat the book. I just wanna go back to last night.
12:45
These are all, these are all about Wembanyama. Troy Beale, "There's no way Wembanyama's 14-1 in the morning. This is a Joe Flacco fake. He's winning this award." From your lips to God, as my mom used to say.
12:56
The Truth 1980, "I just told my wife that Wemby almost had a quad double, and she replied, 'Gil is going to be so fired up tomorrow.' She knows he's the defensive player of the year." [laughs] I don't f- believe that.
13:09
Brandon Feard, "Nine more blocks for Wemby, #DPOY." Um, this is from Scott, New York Mets, "Nine blocks against the defending champs? I cannot wait till his team plays some D so he gets respect."
13:22
[laughs] Uh, Ray, "Even Jokic knows Wemby is defensive player of the year," Wemby talking about how he blocked him four times last night.
13:29
Um, I won't even say the name of this gentleman 'cause I don't wanna say something wrong. "I don't know if this is a conspiracy theory or the actual reason, uh, they're no longer on..."
13:37
Oh, he's talking about that A's thing. There's four guys with, uh, who are wearing paraphernalia supporting some shop that is anti-owners, and those A's, all, all the A's got demoted. Sorry about that.
13:48
Uh, Jason, "I've been, uh, taking the team total over for whoever the Rockies are playing. Only lost one so far. Um, guy on VSiN said to do it when they're at home. Thoughts?"
13:58
Well, no, it'll be adjusted for home, but it's a good thought in general 'cause the Rockies are horrible. Um, Dave sending out Wembanyama things. Jes- Jesse Welch, "Wemby DPOY. Come on, baby.
14:08
Feeling like Joe Flacco comeback player of the year dilemma all over again." Anyway, on and on with stuff. Oh, and this is, here's my favorite one. Roger Jones, "Hi, Gil. Uh, new listener.
14:18
What do you think of betting this rookie from the Spurs at 12-1 to win defensive player of the year? He had nine blocks last night. Thanks in advance." It just keeps going with Wembanyama.
14:26
JBT joins us, our senior NBA analyst, and of course the co-host of VSiN Primetime with Tim Murray every night here at the network. How you doing, John? What's happening? Uh, I'm good, I'm good. Baseball's here.
14:36
Uh, basketball season's almost coming to the postseason. To college basketball. There's so much going on. My Nashville Predators are red hot. [laughs] Somebody convince me to bet a ticket on them. Uh, let's go. I'm in.
14:45
I'm ready to go. That's like me and the Guardians. I'm borrowing them for a month from, uh, Adam Burke. [laughs] Yep. It's, uh, it's all through our bets. All right, JBT, uh, let us play Should Win, Will Win.
14:57
Let's do this with N- with, uh, NBA awards. Let's start with MVP. Uh, okay. Should win and I think they're both the same. Should win and will win will be Nikola Jokic. Uh, look, he's a rightful favorite.
15:07
The guy has been absolutely incredible yet again when you look at his numbers.
15:10
Um, the efficiency from the floor, the on-court, off-court numbers, their net rating when he's on the floor, his contributions, yes, and on both ends.
15:17
He is not, you know, he, I think we've gone past the point talking about him a minus defender. Uh, should win and will win will be Nikola Jokic. I don't think there's really any argument at this point right now.
15:25
Yeah, the straw poll that we just talked about from Tim Bontemps, uh- Yep... con- corroborates that. All right. Most improved player. I'm interested in your thoughts on this. So I, I think this is a little different.
15:36
I think should win should be Coby White.
15:38
I think when you look at Coby White and the leap that he has made from his last two seasons in the league, which he took a very strong downturn, was not playing very well, looked like he wasn't gonna be a part of Chicago's plans going forward, to the leap that he has made up to this point right now is absolutely incredible, and he's playing at a near All-Star level, and should be part of, like, a future building block for the Chicago Bulls as we move forward if he is going to play like this for the rest of his career.
16:01
Will win is Tyrese Maxey. I don't agree with it. Mm.
16:03
I think when you look at the leap that Tyrese Maxey made from his first to his second year, I don't know why then this leap from last year to this year is considered more most improved.
16:12
He couldn't win it his second year 'cause he was a second-year player. But I think given where Coby White was at in his career last season, I think that he should win, but I don't think he will win.
16:22
The reason we do this is not only to get JBT's opinion, but to capture the disappointment [laughs] in what we know is coming on [laughs] some of these. Uh- It's, it's, it's, it's asinine.
16:31
Like, oh, yeah, they're expected to make a leap. Not that kind of a leap. It's, it's, it's whatever. Ugh. Coach of the year. Should win, will win. This, this is interesting.
16:39
So I think, I think should and will are the same guy. Mark Dagnall's awesome. A- and what he's done with this team in terms of having them prepared ev- almost every single game, guys.
16:47
Like, there's not really a letdown for the Oklahoma City Thunder. You know, in recent days, uh, they've kind of had a little bit of a step back, but that's 'cause Shai's been dealing with a quad injury.
16:55
But this team has not let go of the rope in any way, shape, or form. Being so young and still competing for a one seed, they're well-schemed, they're a top 10 team in both offense and defense.
17:04
So much of that has to do with what Dagnall does. I think should win and will win is Mark Dagnall. I'll b- I'll throw in a caveat 'cause he is definitely worth mentioning here.
17:13
Jamal Mosley I think is a little bit more alive than Chris Finch.
17:16
What the Orlando Magic have done to get offensive-geared players to buy in defensively, to potentially have a, a home court advantage in the Eastern Conference, this team's so well ahead of schedule.
17:26
Mosley, I think, is, is very live to win this thing, but for me can and should would be Mark Dagnall. Sixth man. Okay, so this is where I also have some feelings. [laughs] So I would say
17:39
should win, and I will, I will readily admit that I am biased here.
17:43
However, when you look at the players that are in the race for this award, when you're talking about the most efficient player by a pretty decent margin in Norman Powell, a guy who closes out games for the Los Angeles Clippers, and, like, when we're talking about closing games, like, in clutch time is playing in these lineups because he is part of the most important lineup for them efficiency-wise, to me it should be Norman Powell.
18:06
However, will win it, just judging by what we see in media and people's commentary, it looks like it's gonna be Malik Monk. I don't think that...
18:13
I actually, no, I should say, I think that missing this time down the stretch should make a difference because this race is very tight, whether you think it's Malik Monk, Norman Powell, or Naz Reid.
18:24
But I still think that there are so many people, V- G- Gil, who view this award archaically as like, "Gotta be the leading scorer off the bench," when in reality, your role as a sixth man should be more important than that.
18:34
In fact, I think guys like Naz Reid should be getting more credit for playing well as a starter because a good sixth man can also fill the role of a starter if needed- Ooh... if somebody is injured.
18:45
So I think that when you look at it, should win is Norman Powell, but will win is probably gonna be Malik Monk because we can't look past scoring off of the bench. Yeah, that sixth man thing is a conundrum with Naz.
18:55
It's like Naz Reid, I'm sorry, he was a starter, you gotta dismiss it. And then JBT saying the opposite. It's like, oh, he's- Yeah, that was a disaster last year, right? Yeah.
19:02
It was, uh, Brog- Brogdon won it 'cause he was the, he was the true guy off the bench. Yeah. And not quickly 'cause he started too many games.
19:09
Well, K- and, and Kelly, remember last year, so he quickly had to start one game off the bench down the stretch. He had like 45 points against the Celtics, and people were like, "No, it doesn't count."
19:16
And it's like, the, uh, what, what makes a good backup quarterback? The fact that he could come in and start, right, if needed to be. It's the same thing here.
19:24
Like, you shouldn't be discounted for making spot starts here and there and performing adequately. I, I think it's such a weird way of thinking about it. Yeah, that's a tough one. That's a tough one.
19:33
Uh, 10 seconds on clutch player of the year. Some people bet this. [laughs] Anything? Uh, uh, let's go DeMar DeRozan 'cause he's the odds-on favorite. Sure. I, I don't know if you wanna do anything. [laughs] Yeah.
19:42
All right. Drum roll, defensive player of the year. All right, so should win it, Derrick White. No, uh, I think when you look... [laughs] I, I think when you... I, I'll say this.
19:54
I think Rudy Gobert, like, I think Victor Wembanyama deserves more credit for what he does defensively.
19:58
And when you look at his on-court numbers with where the Spurs are at defensively when he plays, you guys have mentioned the counting stats, blocks, and rebounds, and the way that he has impacted this team when he is on the floor, he probably should win defensive player of the year.
20:12
I also wanna state, though, that we should not lose sight of how good Rudy Gobert is defensively, and he is a very big reason why this Minnesota Timberwolves team is leading the league in defensive efficiency at this point right now.
20:23
But I think if you actually looked at it with some nuance, and you talked about literal defensive impact for a team that is as bad in, in a, in a entire picture as the San Antonio Spurs, it probably should be Victor Wembanyama.
20:36
But Rudy Gobert will win this because there's gonna be those old heads, they're gonna look at this and go, "He's a rookie. He can't win defensive player of the year," and that's what might get you. Old heads.
20:45
So ridiculous. NBA plays tonight. What do you got? Anything so far? Uh, so, no, I've, I've got a couple of things that, that I've got loaded up. We'll see if, uh, some of the line moves.
20:53
Like for example, um, the Lakers today are playing, uh, the Washington Wizards. Both teams coming off second legs of back-to-back.
20:58
Darvin Ham told the media yesterday that both Anthony Davis and LeBron James are gonna play tonight. Uh, LeBron James only, like, got out of the game at, like, nine minutes left in the fourth quarter.
21:05
Anthony Davis didn't play in the fourth quarter. So while it's a negative scheduling spot, it's a little bit better for them because they weren't active in that fourth.
21:12
And unlike the Milwaukee Bucks, guys, uh, the Lakers will take an opponent like Washington seriously. They got a plus 8.9 net rating in non-garbage time against bottom teams in terms of net rating.
21:21
Uh, they are 5 and 0 against those teams post All-Star break with a plus 13 net rating. They take care of business against these bad opponents.
21:27
So if we get LeBron and Anthony Davis, I've been lied to before, so I wanna make sure, uh, the, the Lakers are gonna be a play there. Uh, the other ones that are on the list for me as well, Cleveland taking on Phoenix.
21:36
Similar situation. Second leg of a back-to-back for Cleveland, but Donovan Mitchell didn't play yesterday. They took the night off. So you're gonna get him out there.
21:43
Hasn't been playing particularly well, but with the night off, starting to get his legs back underneath him. I can't figure out Phoenix for the life of me.
21:50
They go lose to San Antonio, then they go on the road and blow out New Orleans.
21:53
They're all over the place, but I still think the gap between these two teams, especially when Cleveland's at full strength, is a little bit tighter.
21:58
So those are the two on the radar right now, and I throw out an honorable mention as well of, uh, what was... Elsa was I looking at? Uh, oh, Detroit. Detroit. Uh, I, I, I took a, a different number.
22:08
This number's gone, but I think Detroit's pretty live here against Atlanta. I still think it would be playable at about 11 and a half.
22:12
All right, sorry to do this to you 'cause we only have 20 seconds, but your thoughts on the two Final Four games would be? Uh, Purdue.
22:17
I'm gonna wait to see if the number gets cheap, but I'm gonna lay this thing with Purdue. You know, eight and a halves are kind of out there. But Boilermakers have been riding the last few rounds. I'm gonna do it again.
22:25
Not touching Alabama and UConn? Uh, no, I don't wanna, I wanna bet Alabama, but I can't get in front of that train, man. I can't do it. [laughs] JBT, thank you as always. Appreciate it, man. That's great.
22:35
Good, good to talk to you guys. Thank you. Jonathan Vontobel, @meJBT, by the way, on the old Twitter machine. Little rapid fire. Should win, will win. Little baseball on the other side.
22:45
No one has better numbers than Mark Borchardt. We dive in next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, check out vsin.com.
22:57
Just a quick glance once again, just looking at the, uh, top here. Valero Texas Open odds, picks, and predictions. We'll talk a little Valero Texas Open later on the show. Yeah, we will. Masters primer out today as well.
23:09
Masters primer in there. Um, Live Miami Best Bets and Golf Odds from Wes Reynolds, and of course, just a plethora of NCAA tournament stuff.
23:18
Also, that Michael Lombardi piece on, uh, Now or Never For Trevor, all at vsin.com. Check it out, the new vsin.com. Check it out today. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
23:28
Um, so we mentioned the Stefon Diggs trade, uh, a little before, uh, we had, uh, Montesano on. So Stefon Diggs goes from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans. What were the terms of the deal?
23:40
Now we have a little more detail on this. Yeah, so it's, it's basically Diggs, a fifth and a sixth to Houston for a second, I believe is what it is. A second in 2025. Correct, correct. Yeah. Next year, second, uh, yeah.
23:51
Um, so C.J. Stroud now has at his disposal not only Stefon Diggs, but of course, you know, talking from, uh, from days gone by, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. So that's quite a nice little receiving core now for C.J.
24:08
Stroud. On the other hand, if you're Buffalo, you get out from under his contract, Stefon Diggs' contract, which I think they're probably thrilled about in Buffalo at this point.
24:20
But if you look at their current roster- Yeah... and we're what, April 3rd, we have a draft in front of us, and obviously there's still time to pick up other randos. But if you look at their,
24:32
just their depth chart at wide receiver. Curtis Samuel, welcome to number one. [laughs] Curtis Samuel becomes your, your wide out, your, your wide receiver one. Uh, yeah. Who, who else we got?
24:44
Curtis Samuel, former- Khalil, Khalil Shakir... former Panther, former Skin. Mack Hollins, of course, yeah. Khalil Shakir, and, and Khalil Shakir is probably your number two. But I mean, the rest of them are what?
24:54
Shorter and Hollins and Hamler and those kind of guys. Yeah, they gotta, they gotta make some additions, w- we'll say. Yeah, they got to. I think they'll be targeting that in the draft- They got to...
25:03
where there's, uh, supposed to be about 20 first round wide receivers. Of course, they have two great, uh, tight ends in, uh, Dalton, uh, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox as well, but still at wide out, a little thin now.
25:15
Yeah. Whereas Houston is robust. I still like the under on Houston, though, based on the season opening. Yeah, yeah. I'm, I'm also like, this is, you know I'm a big Josh Allen guy. I, I don't...
25:24
This whole Diggs thing, whatever's been going on there the past year or two years now, I am w- I'm wondering if they might be better moving on from him. Like, it is- It's just Diggs just always upset on the sidelines.
25:36
Yeah. Just always angry about something. And then there were, what, there were games late in the year where they, they, they just, he, he wasn't really a factor.
25:42
Like, he really- He, he was very ineffective this past season. I mean, and then the drop. The drop. Ugh. On that Josh Allen like 70 yard bomb right on the dot. Oh, yeah. And just boop, c- couldn't haul it in.
25:55
Could've, could've been one of the greatest plays we've [laughs] ever seen in football, and he hauls that in the... Can't catch it. Draft props are not robust quite yet.
26:03
Um, but we do have some interesting markets, specifically about specific players to specific teams. Yeah. Which team will draft JJ McCarthy? This is available at DraftKings. This got steamed big time yesterday.
26:17
Yeah, yesterday. Vikings are the short shot at plus 105, followed by the Giants at plus 275. The Commodores are three to one. Patriots plus 350, and then Broncos are plus 550.
26:30
Everybody else, [clears throat] and by everybody else I mean only one listed here, the Raiders, 30- Yeah. No, no, everybody else Everybody else, yeah... 35 to one or longer, yeah. [laughs] Okay, the Vikings got steamed.
26:39
Yeah.
26:40
I, I mean, I, I don't know about you, but I, I have seen in a few, few of the mocks I've been kind of reading up on recently that there's a, seems to be a strong belief the Vikings are gonna trade up into that top 10, um, a- and take McCarthy.
26:51
Um, and, and the most popular one I've heard I f- is, I feel like is the Chargers', uh, spot at number, what, number five they would trade into to grab him. Um- Would they have to?
27:01
The Chargers might not, wouldn't have to trade in to grab him at all. They could just sit at five and grab him probably, unless someone's bonus, you know, doing a smoke screen thing. Here's the thing.
27:09
Vikings currently have the 11th pick, right? Mm-hmm. Does JJ McCarthy fall to 11? F- Wow, I can't believe I'm saying fall to 11. No, I know. I know. It's crazy.
27:19
But like that's the way that it's being talked about now, he would have to fall to 11. So yeah, that- The Chargers are at five. Right. So that's what I'm saying. The Vikings, I think the, the...
27:27
What people are thinking is the Vikings need to trade up for, to that spot- I see... to get a- get ahead of the Giants. Gotcha. 'Cause the Giants might take him.
27:34
Chargers were, and the Chargers were not listed there because they have Justin Herbert on that JJ McCarthy list. As fond of JJ McCarthy as Jim Harbaugh is, I would think that Jim Harbaugh is go- I mean, to me the most,
27:46
the most connected team to a specific player to me is the Chargers and Joe Alt. I think the, I think it's clear they're going offensive lineman. So I, that to me is the, is the, is the biggest thing.
28:02
Now, it should be, it should be mentioned that what we, we were here a week ago- Man, I hope you're wrong 'cause I've got, I've got [laughs] a lot, that's where I've got neighbors going.
28:10
[laughs] You, oh, you have them drafting neighbors. Well, that could be. But I agree with you. I, I- That could be... I think one of the, one of those positions is where they're gonna attack.
28:17
I'm just saying if you're going to d- if you're going to dive into one of these markets and you made me do one of them right now, that would be mine. The, the JJ McCarthy thing, again, all of this is lying season, right?
28:27
Mm-hmm. 'Cause a week ago, wasn't, wasn't even a week ago. Remember we were all that steam on McCarthy to go number two- Yep... to Washington? Um, so that quickly has died down a little bit. Yep.
28:38
Um, you know who had a pretty- I mean, it ha- it has and it hasn't, right? I think the, the overall- Yeah... sentiment that he's still way, gonna go way sooner than we would've thought, right, a month ago seems to be...
28:49
I mean, at this point it kind of, it kind of seems like it's gonna happen from everything we're hearing.
28:53
You know what's the best line about JJ McCarthy going second is, and I don't quote him often on the show, is Bomani Jones. Mm.
29:00
Bomani Jones has a line about that he goes, about the buzz of JJ McCarthy going second to Washington. He goes, "Here's how I know JJ McCarthy is not going second to Washington."
29:08
He goes, "Because if JJ McCarthy was going second to Washington, JJ McCarthy would be going first."
29:15
And his point there is that if you are that enamored [clears throat] by a guy, [clears throat] pardon me, who won a national championship, the, y- your narrative for loving JJ McCarthy is he won a national championship, he made all the right decisions when he w- and when he was asked to make plays, he made all the right plays, right?
29:31
So it's not what was on the field, but it was he, he played as great as you can for what he was asked to do at the right times and they won a title. Right. And he's, and so I understand his point.
29:42
His point is if you buy into that so much as he is worthy of the number two pick, well, then why isn't he the number one pick either? That's his, his take on that.
29:50
And so there is a little kernel of wisdom in that where it's like, yeah, no, I agree with that. He's, he's not gonna be one or two is my point. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. No, I, and I get that. It is, it is interesting.
30:00
Um- So that's why the Vikings and other teams have come to favor. Yeah, 'cause you've got special play makers at the top, right? Yeah. With what, with what we would consider Qu- uh, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.
30:08
Um- The Bo Nix thing is interesting because- This one, yeah, this one is just as interesting to me... 'cause the Broncos are really the only team
30:16
That falls under the category of has shown tremendous interest in Bo Nix Like to a minus 150 event? To minus 150 [laughs] Wow. Vikings four to one, Raiders five to one, Giants seven to one.
30:29
But you, you, you get to, you know, if you hadn't had a feel for who's gonna draft a quarterback or who, who covets a quarterback, it's the usual suspects towards the top of these. Vikings, Raiders, Giants. Right.
30:40
Yeah, yeah. Well, yes. All the...
30:41
Which in all the t- you know, quarterback needy teams make sense, but, like, I don't know, for this one to manifest, like, there's, I don't know, there's a lot of different things [laughs] that's gotta go on for Denver to get in a position to get him.
30:54
Like- Denver's at 12 currently. Yeah. Like, I, I mean, is it, is it... I, I don't know. Like, are they- Wait, but Denver doesn't have to trade up for Bo Nix. No, no, I'm not necessarily saying that, but you- Yeah...
31:01
still gotta wait for 11 picks to come off the board, and then we're, everybody's assu- There's no other trades that happen, nothing else- Yeah... where this guy's just gonna fall to him at 12?
31:10
I'm just not running to play [laughs] minus 150- I mean, he would-... for something like that... he would be, he would be the fifth quarterback selected at 12- Yeah...
31:20
if they got him at 12, assuming Michael Penix wouldn't, you know, go before that. So it's just like, yeah, on the one hand, I hear what you're saying.
31:27
On the other hand, really, like, the five are gonna be picked before 12? It's insane. I know, it's insane. The, uh... I'm, I'm really wish I would've bet that, uh, the over four and a half heavier [laughs] than I did.
31:38
But, oh well. Over four and a half on, on, oh, quarterbacks? Yeah. Yeah.
31:41
'Cause when those markets opened, I, I bet 'em both in town just to pick up some free money, 'cause it was over f- over four and a half at even money, and then under four and a half in another shop here at plus 115.
31:50
But I don't... Like, there's five. Five are going. Of all the draft wisdom we have imparted, and I'm sure it's not just us, over the years, the single most
32:01
just consistently right one is teams justifiably, right, they go crazy for quarterbacks. Yeah. Quarterback-needy teams go crazy for quarterbacks. They go Coco for... Uh, what is it? Cocoa for Coco. What is it? Coco.
32:15
Cocoa for Cocoa Puffs for quarterbacks in the first round- There you go... because, what's the Chris Collinsworth line?
32:21
Most important position in football is quarterback, second most important position is backup quarterback. Like, you're nothing without a quarterback. You're nothing.
32:27
And if you don't have it, you are just a different category. Mm-hmm. And so it, it's justifiable, and they prey.
32:35
Now, the, the talent assessment of this is the other side of it, which is that is the most inexact science there is. So on the one hand, you're justified going after it. On the other hand, there is rarely any
32:46
s- like, the success rate of actually picking the right guy is super low.
32:51
And as our buddy Matt Brown has said, which I think is accurate, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow specifically in modern times, and I went through, remember I went draft by draft since that draft.
33:02
Nobody has drafted well with the exception of Tr- Yeah... you know, Trevor Lawrence was the first pick in the draft. He's the only quarterback since Burrow and Herbert were drafted that has done anything in this league.
33:14
So it's the most inexact science there is. And even that. And even with that- They're still gonna-... they're still gonna go crazy drafting these guys. So I don't know. I, I don't have any thoughts.
33:23
Like, I don't, I wouldn't recommend a bet on either of these at this point. I would recommend not betting, uh, the, the favorites in both of these markets right now.
33:32
Yeah, I wouldn't play minus 150 on the Broncos, that's for sure. We'll come back. The injury reporting in the NBA, and what to do with the Sixers specifically beyond that. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:50
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, check out vsin.com. Just a quick glance once again, just looking at the, uh, top here. Valero Texas Open, odds, picks, and predictions.
34:02
We'll talk a little Valero Texas Open later on in the show. Yeah, we will. Masters primer out today as well. Masters primer i- in there. Um,
34:11
Live Miami best bets and golf odds from Wes Reynolds, and of course, just a plethora of NCAA tournament stuff. Also, that Michael Lombardi piece on, uh, Now or Never for Trevor, all at vsin.com.
34:22
Check it out, the new vsin.com. Check it out today. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Um, so we mentioned the Stefon Diggs trade, uh, a little before, uh, we had, uh, Montesano on.
34:33
So Stefon Diggs goes from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans. What were the terms of the deal? Now we have a little more detail on this.
34:40
Yeah, so it's, it's basically Diggs, a fifth and a sixth to Houston for a second, I believe, is what it was. A second in 2025. Correct, correct. Yes. Next year, second, uh, yeah. Um, so C.J.
34:53
Stroud now has at his disposal not only Stefon Diggs, but of course, you know, talking from, uh, from days gone by, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. So that's quite a nice little receiving corps now for C.J. Stroud.
35:07
Sure is, yeah. On the other hand, if you're Buffalo, you get out from under his contract, Stefon Diggs' contract, which I think they're probably thrilled about in Buffalo at this point.
35:19
But if you look at their current roster- Yeah... and we're in, what, April 3rd. We have a draft in front of us, and obviously there's still time to pick up other randos. But if you look at their,
35:31
just their depth chart at wide receiver. Curtis Samuel, welcome to number one [laughs]. Curtis Samuel becomes your, your- Every-... wideout, your, your wide receiver one. Uh, yeah. Who, who else we got there?
35:43
Curtis Samuel, former- Khalil, Khalil Shakir... former Panther, former Skin. Mack Hollins, of course, yeah. Khalil Shakir, and Khalil Shakir is probably your number two.
35:52
But I mean, the rest of them are, what, Shorter and Hollins and Hamler and those kind of guys. Yeah, they gotta, they gotta make some additions w- we'll say. Yeah, they got to.
36:00
I think they'll be targeting that in the draft- Yeah... where there's, uh, supposed to be about 20 first-round wide receivers. Of course, they have two great, uh, tight ends in, uh,
36:07
Dalton, uh, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox as well, but still at wideout, a little thin now. Yeah. Whereas Houston is robust. I still like the under on Houston, though. Based on the season Yeah, yeah.
36:19
I'm, I'm also like this is... You know I'm a big Josh Allen guy. I, I don't... This whole Diggs thing, whatever's been going on there the past year or two years now,
36:28
I am wo- I'm wondering if they might be better moving on from him. Like it is- It's just Diggs just always upset on the sidelines Yeah... just always angry about something. A- and then there were, what?
36:37
There were games late in the year where they, they, they just... He, he wasn't really a factor. Like he really- He, he was very ineffective this past season I mean, and then the drop.
36:44
The drop, ugh, on that Josh Allen like 70-yard bomb right on the dot. Oh, yeah And just boop. Ca- couldn't hold it in.
36:54
Could've, could've been one of the greatest plays we've [laughs] ever seen in football, and he hauls that in the... No, can't catch it.
37:00
Draft props are not robust quite yet, um, but we do have some interesting markets, specifically about specific players to specific teams. Yeah. Which team will draft JJ McCarthy? This is available at DraftKings.
37:14
This got steamed big time yesterday. Yeah, yesterday. Vikings are the short shot at plus 105, followed by the Giants at plus 275. The Commodores are three to one. Patriots plus 350, and then Broncos are plus 550.
37:29
Everybody else, [clears throat] and by everybody else I mean only one listed here, the Raiders, 30- Yeah. No, no, everybody else... everybody else... 35 to one or longer Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] Okay.
37:37
The Vikings got steamed.
37:38
Yeah, I, I mean I, I don't know about you, but I, I have seen in a few, a few of the mocks I've been kind of reading up on recently that there's a, seems to be a strong belief the Vikings are gonna trade up into that top 10, um, a- and take McCarthy.
37:50
Um, and, and the most popular one I've heard I f- is, I feel like is the Chargers', uh, spot at number, what, number five they would trade into to grab him. Um- Would they have to?
38:00
The Chargers w- might not, wouldn't have to trade in to grab him at all. They could just sit at five and grab him probably, unless someone's bonus, you know, doing a smoke screen thing.
38:08
Here's the thing, Vikings currently have the 11th pick, right? Mm-hmm. Does JJ McCarthy fall to 11? F- wow, I can't believe I'm saying fall to 11. No, I know. [laughs] I know. It's crazy.
38:18
But like that's the way that it's being talked about now, he would have to fall to 11. So yeah, that- The Chargers are at five. Right. So that's what I'm saying.
38:24
The Vikings, I think the, the, what people are thinking is the Vikings need to trade up for, to that spot- I see... to get a- get ahead of the Giants. Gotcha 'Cause the Giants might take him.
38:33
Chargers were, and the Chargers were not listed there because they have Justin Herbert on that JJ McCarthy list. As fond of JJ McCarthy as Jim Harbaugh is, I would think that Jim Harbaugh is g- I mean, to me the most,
38:45
the most connected team to a specific player to me is the Chargers and Joe Alt. I think the, I think it's clear they're going offensive lineman. So I, that to me is the, is the, is the biggest thing.
39:01
Now it should be, it should be mentioned that what we're, we were here a week ago- Man, I hope you're wrong 'cause I've got, [laughs] I've got a lot... That's where I've got neighbors going.
39:09
[laughs] You, oh, you have them drafting neighbors. Well, that could be. But I agree with you. I, I- That could be... I think one of th- one of those positions is where they're gonna take him.
39:16
I'm just saying if you're going to d- if you're going to dive into one of these markets, and you made me do one of them right now, that would be mine.
39:23
The, the JJ McCarthy thing, again, all of this is lying season, right? Mm-hmm. 'Cause a week ago, wasn't even a week ago, remember we were all that steam on McCarthy to go number two- Yep... to Washington.
39:33
Um, so that quickly has died down a little bit. Yep. Um, you know who had a pretty- I mean, it ha- it has and it hasn't, right? I think the, the- Yeah...
39:40
overall sentiment that he's still way, gonna go way sooner than we would've thought, right, a month ago seems to be...
39:48
I mean, at this point it kind of, it kind of seems like it's gonna happen from [laughs] everything we're hearing.
39:52
You know what's the best line about JJ McCarthy going second is, and I don't quote him often on the show, is Bomani Jones. Mm.
39:59
Bomani Jones has a line about that he goes, about the buzz of JJ McCarthy going second to Washington. He goes, "Here's how I know JJ McCarthy is not going second to Washington."
40:07
He goes, "Because if JJ McCarthy was going second to Washington, JJ McCarthy would be going first."
40:14
And his point there is that if you are that enamored [clears throat] by a guy, [clears throat] pardon me, who won a national championship, th- y- your narrative for loving JJ McCarthy is he won a national championship, he made all the right decisions when he w- and when he was asked to make plays he made all the right plays, right?
40:30
So it's not what was on the field, but it was he, he played as great as you can for what he was asked to do at the right times and they won a title. Right. And he's, and so I understand his point.
40:41
His point is if you buy into that so much as he is worthy of the number two pick, well, then why isn't he the number one pick either? That's his, his take on that.
40:49
And so there is a little kernel of wisdom in that where it's like, yeah, no, I agree with that. He's, he's not gonna be one or two is my point. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, I, no, I get that. It is, it is interesting.
40:59
Um- So that's why the Vikings and other teams have come to favor- Yeah, 'cause you've got special play makers at the top, right? Yeah. W- w- with what we would consider Q- uh, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.
41:07
Um- The Bo Nix thing is interesting because- This one, yeah, I, this one is just as interesting to me... 'cause the Broncos are really the only team
41:15
that falls under the category of has shown tremendous interest in Bo Nix. Like to a minus 150 in fact. To minus 150. [laughs] Wow. Vikings four to one, Raiders five to one, Giants seven to one.
41:28
But you, you, you get to, you know, if you hadn't had a feel for who's gonna draft a quarterback or who, who covets a quarterback, it's the usual suspects towards the top of these. Vikings, Raiders
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