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Apr 3, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 3, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | April 3, 2025
00:00
33:51
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. They get the of course. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
It's producer number nine, so much more than a producer, Kelly Midland to my left. Hello. How we doing? What's happening? Not much. Excited to do NFL season win totals today. Yeah. Let's go.
0:31
You got into that, didn't you? I did because I was... I, I don't know if you had this experience. I knew they were trickling out. Yeah. And then I also was like, "Okay, it's too early," right?
0:41
We don't have the sequencing of the schedules yet. And then I'm like, "Okay, I'll look at them." I'm like, "I love this." [laughs] Same thing? No. [laughs] Oh, okay. You didn't love it so much?
0:51
I mean, I love, I love the process. I love thinking ahead. Yeah.
0:55
I think what irritates me with this stuff, we've, 'cause we've talked about it with a couple other markets, is they're getting stuff out so fast now- Yeah...
1:01
that it's, then it's up for so long, and by the time you really feel like you can go and sink good money into it, it's stuff is moved and things like that. So I don't know.
1:10
It's- Well, the caveat here is we have not bet any of these yet. Yeah, haven't bet any of these yet. Yeah. Yeah. This is so early that we're just glancing at it and giving first reactions. We'll do that here momentarily.
1:20
Zach and Crack on a Thursday, Zach Cohen with his NBA thoughts, uh, his college hoops thoughts, and, and maybe some tennis. He's the one guy that is betting, uh, tennis. I, I lost my want tennis.
1:29
I don't know why I dipped my toe back in yesterday. [laughs] Uh, I'm never winning another three- Was that your feeling right away?
1:34
What is it, like, how many years of sustained tennis greatness here and then all of a sudden I can... I'm never winning another one. Um, Zach, though, has some thoughts. Final Four with Tim Murray as well.
1:44
Tim will join us. Maybe Tim will have something to say about JBT's unprovoked attack on him yesterday- Yeah... here on the show. Yeah. We're big dorky nerds or something like that. You, you and, uh- Me and Timmy...
1:52
you and Tim. That's right. JBT from the, from the top rope. And then of course- Mr. Cool...
1:57
the Crack part of it, unscripted with Crack Man, Bill Krackenberger, our number two, who, uh, the last three, four weeks he's been in here, he has had a list of things that he has tried to take note to himself that he wants to get into, and we never get to any of them.
2:10
So I don't know, maybe we'll get to some today, maybe we won't. But he usually starts the show by saying, "I'm angry." [laughs] That's been the past couple weeks, that's for sure.
2:16
And so it just flows, it just flows from there. [laughs] So we'll get into that. Uh, you did make a couple, uh, uh, NFL draft bets. Yeah, I went draft betting yesterday. Yep. Yeah, William Hill, Caesars, hit 'em both.
2:27
Um- How much, how much they let you put on those? Uh, I, I was able to get down okay. Okay. I was, I was- Counter, at the counter? No. Oh. Kiosks. Oh, kiosks. It was, it was okay. Okay.
2:35
That's where I was complaining to you about the process. Like, it's so silly when you go into- So dumb... like Caesars, your kiosks, I, I think- So dumb... I think from a user-friendliness, like, they're great.
2:44
They're awesome. They're very easy to use. But, like, you pull up an interface that looks exactly like your app looks like, and then if you go and bet a certain amount of money, they force you to enter your rewards card.
2:57
So as soon as you do that, they know exactly who you are, just like they know who you are when you're on your app. So why can I only make a $30 bet on my app, but I can go in and bet at the kiosk? They don't even know.
3:08
It's so- They couldn't answer it for you. Yeah, I, I, I don't understand. So anyways, uh, between there and then I also hit a William Hill shop 'cause that, uh, had, uh, had some, the same props up, yeah, uh, too.
3:17
We, I know we were discussing that yesterday. I thought William Hill had maybe moved off of Caesars just copying what they're doing. Nah, that's still, that's still going.
3:23
It's, I told you, it's the, you know, it's the same thing, right? Yeah, someone told me they had moved- Yeah... and, uh, yeah, no, it's the same thing. Yeah. So I'm in on, let's see, quarterbacks I bet over.
3:32
We talked about that a little bit, but I did bet that, yes. Over two and a half. Over two and a half. How much you lay? I'm la- I'm laying minus 300. Yeah.
3:37
Um, and then I have running backs under two and a half, laid minus 310 on that. And then McMillan under 18 and a half, I bet that one already, minus 190, and then I hit it again yesterday minus 210.
3:47
All right, so you're just jumping on some ones you already mentioned. Mm-hmm. Um, Jaxson Dart, some mocking to go to the, uh, Steelers perhaps late first round as the third quarterback.
3:56
Um, the, the fly in the ointment on the running back most say would be TreVeyon Henderson of Ohio State. Yep. And then we, we love Teddaro McMillan, so good for you.
4:06
Yeah, I mean, I've got a long shot bet Dart to go too, but, like, I, I don't think there's any way he's falling out of the first round. I think we se- I think we get three quarterbacks.
4:14
It's, I know it's not a great quarterback class. The, y- we say it all the time, Gil, right? You ain't nothing without a quarterback. Gotta get a quarterback. Some of these teams, like, you gotta get one. You gotta try.
4:24
Can I familiarize your, uh, can I familiarize you with the Washington franchise? They're, they are case in point number one. Yep. Yep.
4:31
What happens when you don't have a quarterback for a quarter of a century and then when you get one? And I always, I always bring it up with the Cardinals, where, how quickly they were to move on from Josh Rosen, right?
4:39
Like, I, I always respected that. Yes. Throw in the cards. If it's not there, like, you gotta move on. You can't waste years. Well, they must have really figured it out quick with him. Yeah.
4:48
[laughs] It must have been like, "Yeah, there's no, there's no getting around this." The Rosen one, right? Who, what else they have? The chosen one. Yeah, the Rosen one. Yeah.
4:55
I, that's what they did or- I see what you did there... he threw the ball on a Rosen rope. Um, okay. [laughs] Um, he'll always have that game against A&M, though, that, that game on, at UCLA. Oh my God, was that amazing.
5:06
Uh, okay, I hope you hit the, uh, the over. I hope you rode the over in the, uh, game in Sactown yesterday, um, from LA to Sactown, Bay Area back down. Bay Area to Sactown? Um, Sacramento.
5:17
We talked about the ballpark yesterday and the lack of foul ground. That went over in the fourth inning, and, uh, we'll look for those opportunities moving forward, uh, in Sacramento.
5:26
So I hope everybody rode that, cashed on that. Um, and then there's of course the Dodgers, who come back from a five to nothing deficit.
5:34
I got in on 'em at 5.2 yesterday, a plus 222 money line, uh, plus two minus 106, so I played both the money line and plus the runs at that point.
5:44
They both cash because of the heroics, late heroics, Max Muncy with a, uh, two RBI shot to tie it up in the bottom of the eighth with two out on a one-two pitch.
5:56
He goes into right center to tie it up, and then Shohei in the ninth. Shohei Solo, solo jam. Dodgers are 8 and 0. Padres are 7 and 0. The Giants are 5 and 1 in third place in their division.
6:10
And then the entire AL Central's 2 and 4, by the way. I, I'm, I'm kind of surprised by the way. So the Dodgers 8 and 0. Yeah. Topping the 1933 New York Yankees- Yes...
6:21
for the longest winning streak to begin a season for a reigning champion. For a reigning champion is the caveat. What's the longest winning streak period to start a season? You have any idea? Oh, that's a great question.
6:31
I could tell you the longest losing was the Orioles, 0 and 21, I wanna say, in 1988. 21? Yes. Ooh. The Cal Ripken Sr. led Orioles, I believe, in 1988. Um, so
6:49
there's, so I, I just wanna say this about, again, the, we did the ro- the, uh, race to 10 and then March, April. 13 is the record to begin a season. 13, okay. 13 wins.
6:57
I would've- Uh, 82 Braves, 87 Brewers, and tw- 2023 Rays. I was going to guess a Brewers team went 13 and 0, but I didn't have the, uh, the onions to say it. Um, so three teams did it 13 and 0? Mm-hmm. All right.
7:09
Well, the Dodgers are 8 and 0. With the race to 10, um, remember the thinking on the race to 10 was those two games in March in Tokyo where the Dodgers and Cubs preceded the rest of baseball.
7:19
The hope on the race to 10 was that the Dodgers split those with the Cubs. As soon as they went 2 and 0, it's like, okay, we're behind the eight ball.
7:25
At that point, the race to 10 market becomes a, well, if the Dodgers just hold serve, there's nothing any other team can do. And guess what? The Dodgers have held serve for the l- for the next six.
7:36
So even the Padres, who are 7 and 0, right? The Dodgers are 8 and 0. They're like, imagine if you had the Padres in the race to 10 right now. You'd be like, I cannot bel- It's crazy. [laughs]...
7:43
I cannot believe we're gonna lose this. This is ridiculous. The, um- Even though, by the way, we're not anywhere close with the Mets.
7:49
I, I know we've talked a lot about, like, the o- you know, the odds and quickly these fa- these big favorites getting out, uh, uh, pretty far to start the season. Where's the buyback point with the Dodgers?
8:00
Like, when does that happen? How f- I mean, w- how f- big is this gonna get? Well, we, we talked, we had the video on it. We put the clip on Twitter also.
8:07
We talked about this, which is, and I had related it to when they play the White Sox. Remember, this is before- Right... the season. I said, when they play the White Sox in July, is that gonna be minus 700, right?
8:19
Forget about July. Yeah. Uh, this month, they host the Rockies April 15th, three-game set at home. Okay. They host the Marlins three-game set at home April 28th.
8:30
That first game against the Rockies, let's say the Dodgers don't lose before then, or let's say they lose once, right? 'Cause eventually- And they've got the Phillies- This just in...
8:39
Nationals Eventually, eventually they'll lose, right? This just in. But what is that line likely to be? And we went through the historical, the biggest lines in, you know, in modern baseball history.
8:50
We did 2005 through t- 2022, and there was only one, there was, there was 24 examples between the years 2005 and 2022 of individual basebil- baseball lines being north of minus 400.
9:03
By the way, the favorites went 18 and 6 in those games. 18 and 6. And the highest was an Astros line when the Astros were super good in 2019, which was, like, minus 521, I believe it was. This was according to MGM odds.
9:18
Minus 521. I don't think it's a stretch at all. By the way, only one of those 24 lines that was north of minus 400 between the years of 2005 and 2022, only one of those was pre-June.
9:33
So one in April and May, and it was a Yankees game in April one of those years. But I would think that this Dodgers team, this Rockies line mid, mid-month, that, that's easily minus 500.
9:45
Seriously, like, I really believe it will push b- minus 500. I mean, what do you think? So they have series against the Phillies and the Nationals on the road, right? Two, two, two decent teams. Yeah.
9:56
Two good, two quality teams, right? Phill- Phillies for sure.
10:00
But, okay, if they, if they win every one of those games and they come back and they're the Cubs Friday night at home on April 11th, I mean, like, what's that, what's that line?
10:09
Well, that's why I keep pointing to the Rockies one- [laughs]... which is like, imagine that line. Imagine that line. The Rockies are up a six. And we don't, and we don't have to wait that long.
10:15
We have to wait 12 days for that. So we'll see. We'll see what that could be. Uh, do, do we wanna squeeze in one NFL season win total here or is it not enough time? Probably not enough time, huh? Yeah, probably not.
10:26
Okay. Got, got any thoughts on Ovechkin? Um, yeah. I think it's, I think it's one of these great moments, by the way, Alex Ovechkin now two away from tying Wayne Gretzky, three away from breaking.
10:36
By the way, there is a props at DraftKings. Alex Ovechkin to record his 895, 895th career regular season goal in the regular season. The yes is minus 425. Really glad I didn't get in on the no price on this.
10:48
Remember I brought that up in a week or two ago? Well, I'm curious. We, we should have Jay Conner at some point to ask him, is this hurting the Caps? Yeah. Is this hurting the Caps?
10:57
Is, is the need to feed, uh, Ovi hurting them when it comes to, okay, they're going to the playoffs. Uh, a team with, with the exception of one year, a horrific postseason, uh, you know, history.
11:11
It's just the, I, I wonder if this has made them a little janky as a team. But as far as Ovechkin, I'm, I'm, I, first of all, you know, I went to a Caps game their very first year.
11:22
As I could ba- I could barely even talk, right? And I went to a Caps game. So this team has lived for all these years. So this matters to me. I think it matters in sports. It certainly matters in hockey. Yeah.
11:31
Gretzky's attending every game at this point. I will turn the channel and I will absolutely be locked in for when he will do this. It's massive for hockey. Massive. This, I mean, this is one of sports' great records.
11:44
Um, so it's huge. Let's get Jay in though to find out about the effect on the Caps. NFL season win totals next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:41
The Cowboys have made a move for a quarterback. Oh. Did I hype it up enough? You did. Okay. You, the, the perfect amount. Uh- Tell us, tell us what the deal is.
12:49
The Patriots have traded Joe Milton and a seventh round pick to the Dallas Cowboys. The Patriots get a fifth round pick in return. Say that last part louder. Patriots get a fifth round pick in return. Okay.
13:00
The C- the Cowboys have no, have no sense of what a draft pick is valued at, right? What was it, the fourth for Mingo, right? Yeah. And now they're trading a fifth for Milton.
13:11
By the way, I love Milton because I think, I've always said this, Joe Milton throws a football longer than any human being I've ever seen throw a football.
13:18
I have no idea if he knows where it's going, but he can throw it farther than any human being I've ever seen. I mean, do you remember the, do you remember the pre-season hype from Patriots fans last summer?
13:27
It was like, "Oh, could he push for the starting job?" I'm just saying, like, the Cowboys, they, they, they loved to trade for Trey Lance. Trey Lance, by the way, now plays for the Saskatchewan Roughriders- Yeah...
13:36
in case you're scoring at home. Um, and now they're trading for Joe Milton, and it's like, you know, they traded a fifth. I, I get it, they got a seventh back, but I just... What are you doing?
13:45
This is a genius move by the Patriots, actually, 'cause this is, I mean, ge- genius might be a strong word, but, uh,
13:51
with Joe Milton, with how excited some Patriots fans were about him last year, just get him off the roster, right? Like, don't let any, any attention be taken away from Drake May- Yeah...
14:01
and what, and what he's gonna build there. Like, this, and you're getting, and you're getting a fifth round pick. It's not like you're getting nothing in return. Cowboys quarterback room, Dak, Will Grier, Joe Milton.
14:11
Also, on the Dallas side, like, I wouldn't read anything into that, like, of, like, I don't think Dak Prescott's, like, I think he's going to be fine.
14:19
I'm not reading into this like they're, they're worried about Dak returning from injury. By the way, uh, I just wanna say this about the Max Muncy hit yesterday. Max Muncy tried a torpedo bat yesterday.
14:29
He had a horrible slash line heading into the game. He was, uh, 095, 208, 143, batting average on base slugging. So he tries a torpedo bat. First three at-bats.
14:39
First of all, he's committing two errors in the field, by the way. He tries a torpedo bat. He goes 0 for three with a strikeout. He comes up in the eighth, Dodgers down two, two on. He's like, "Forget this."
14:49
I almost said it. "Forget, [laughs] forget this torpedo bat. Give me the old school lumber." Two RBI knock.
14:56
I don't understand how, 'cause, 'cause I've heard guys talking about this, of how we could even, it, you know, we could see guys using multiple bat, you know, it along with other bats in a game.
15:08
Like, that's, that's wild to me. I would, I would think these guys are such creatures of habit, you would not wanna do that. Well, if you're batting, if you had that slash line, you'd try anything. Right.
15:16
Well, it's different, right, when you're trying it out- Yeah... and it goes that badly. It's like, "All right, get me, get rid of this thing." Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for NFL season win totals.
15:23
Here's our big intro. Ba, ba, ba, bum. There we go. Okay, let's do these five, four, three, two, one. It's our first glance. Full disclosure, we have not bet any of these yet. Correct. This is just looking.
15:33
Now remember, we don't have sequencing either. The sequence of schedule has not come out. We just know who the opponents are.
15:39
Um, and remember, these are done, uh, you play, uh, the other three teams in your division twice, that's six games. Uh, you play each team in another division in your conference on a rotating basis.
15:49
That's four more games, so that's 10.
15:52
You play a c- a, a division in the opposite conference, all four of those teams once, that's 14 games, and then the other three are determined by, uh, the two divisions that you don't play in your conference.
16:03
If you're a second place team, you play the second place teams in those two divisions, that's 16, and then a rando second place team in the second place example of a team in the opposite conference.
16:13
Those are your 17 football games. Boom. Our fifth favorite NFL season win totals. For me, Kelly, [laughs] I can't even say it without laughing, under on the Pittsburgh Steelers, under eight and a half minus 135.
16:27
I know someone told me that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, that can't possibly be true. I know. I know. It's crazy.
16:37
Um, and I know last year that I v- I vociferously thought the Steelers would not get to, uh, nine wins. Well, guess what? I don't think they will this year.
16:45
Uh, if I give you a two and four in their division, remember they got the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns in their division. I'll give you two and four.
16:52
I don't think you're splitting those games if you're the Pittsburgh Steelers. Oh, no way. Okay, I'll, yeah, two and four sounds right. But I'll, I'll be more generous on the other home games, right?
17:00
The other home games you got, you got Buffalo, you got Green Bay, but you have Minnesota, Miami, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Let me be super generous. I'll give you four and two on those.
17:08
Then you gotta figure out a win, a way to win three other road games to beat me between Detroit, the Chargers, Chicago, New England, and the Jets.
17:18
So for me, everything has to go perfectly for the Steelers to get to nine. I will bet under eight and a half minus 135 on the Steelers. I like it. Um, I, Pittsburgh, Gil's gonna do it again. I, I'm done. I'm done.
17:31
You've, you've defeated me. I can't do it again. I, it is not on my list of five, Gil. I will already, uh, I will already peel back the curtain a- and reveal that. It is not on my list of five.
17:41
I will not be battling Mike Tomlin, uh, anymore this year. 'Cause you've done it for years. I've done it for years, and I've got my ass kicked by him, and it is not happening again in 2025.
17:49
No matter what they do this off-season, I will not have an under, uh, on the Steelers' season win total. So that is the biggest old tip of the cap I can give to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
17:58
Um, Raiders, yeah, under six and a half at plus money, give me that one. I think a lot of these, I, I attacked, Gil, looking at just divisions mainly and how they're stacking up right now.
18:08
Uh, Raiders Uh, y- you could say, you could argue with me if you think it's a better team than what they had a year ago. Brock Bowers is absolutely amazing.
18:16
Um, you bring in Geno Smith, I, I don't, I think it's gonna be a mistake you going out to draft Ashton Jeanty with how, with how many holes are on this team still.
18:24
But the biggest point of this, Gil, is the rest of the division's gotten better. Uh, Broncos are better, the Chargers are better. The Chiefs are still really good.
18:29
I think they're gonna struggle to get through this division. I think seven wins is a lot to be asking of this Raiders team. So under six and a half at plus money, give me that one.
18:37
And I'll just propel it forward by saying that's my fourth favorite season win total, the under on the Raiders as well.
18:42
Um, if I give you one in five in the division, based on everything Kelly was just saying, and then I'll be generous and I'll give you three in three in your other home games, that's Dallas, Jacksonville, the Giants, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Chicago.
18:54
So I'll give you three of those, but then you still have to win three other road games to beat me between Philly, Washington, Houston, Indy, and New England. You, you get to seven, tip of the cap, under- Mm-hmm...
19:05
Raiders six and a half. Yeah, and Giants, again, number four for me. This is another p- more of a play of overall how I view the NFC East.
19:12
I, look, we really don't know what their quarterback situation's gonna look like yet. The draft is going to shift this team a lot.
19:18
Uh, but standing here today, this would be one of my favorite win totals on the under five and a half for the Giants. And this is a lot o'- uh, it's a lot of respect for the division.
19:26
I don't expect the Cowboys to be absolutely terrible, uh, this year.
19:30
I, I, you know, I do think they're probably the third-best team in the NFC East, but when you're going up against Dallas, Washington, uh, and Philadelphia, Giants very clearly still in last place in that division.
19:40
So under five and a half. Wow, let me just say we match on that coming up as well. Let's go to our third favorite, uh, NFL season win totals. I'm on the under train once again, this time with the aforementioned Cowboys.
19:49
Sorry, Dave Ross, co-host of By the Books, Cowboys under seven and a half. Uh, if I give you two in four in the division, remember you got Philly, Washington, and the Giants, so I give you two in four.
20:00
And let's say two in three against your other home, your other home games are hard, man. Yeah. Green, Green Bay, Kansas City, the Chargers, 'cause remember, the NFC East plays the AFC West.
20:09
So Green Bay, Kansas City, the Chargers, Minnesota, and Arizona. Let's say I give you Minnesota and Arizona. I'll be generous. So two in four, two in three.
20:17
That means you gotta win four of the rest of you are on the road. Denver, Detroit, and then it gets easier. Chicago, Vegas, Jets, Carolina. In other words, for me, again, you have to beat me with eight. Mm-hmm.
20:31
Things have to go almost perfectly for the Cowboys to get to eight. Under seven and a half, minus 125. Joe Milton ain't helping you.
20:38
Yeah, this is one, uh, g- I'll be honest, I, I kinda circled the Cowboys to go look at an over, but you just ran through the schedule. I, once I started going through the schedule, I'm like, "I can't.
20:46
I can't go, get there on an over." So, um, Texans are my number three, over nine and a half. I'm gonna count, I'm gonna count on a rebound, uh, year from the Texans a little bit.
20:55
I mean, uh, what did they still finish with 10 wins last, yeah, 10 and seven last year. Still went over this last year in a year that we all thought, uh, kinda went badly.
21:03
Uh, I know Nick Whale was on with us yesterday talking up the, the, the Jags and the AFC South a little bit. Sorry, Nick, I can't get there yet. Uh, unless Anthony Richardson becomes the MVP, I think he might be.
21:13
I think this division's still owned by Houston. Goes through Houston, I think nine and a half, I will look at the over. Guys, we're gonna save the number ones for after the break, so don't reveal those.
21:22
But our number twos, Kelly, I match with you, under on the Giants. Under is, uh, under the Giants, so that's my fourth straight under. Um, eventually I'll get to an over, but under on the Giants.
21:33
Y- you, this team's getting to six wins? Stop it. If I gave you two in four in the division, and remember, it's the Eagles, Commanders, and Cowboys. I'll give you two in four, I'll be generous. Mm-hmm.
21:44
Here's the rest of your home games. Green Bay, Kansas City, the Chargers, the Niners, and the Vikings. Say I give you one of those. So two in four division, one in four rest of home games.
21:54
I think I'm being generous on all that. You still have to figure out a win, a way to win three of your other road games. Denver, Detroit, New England, Raiders, Saints, Bears. Again, it's another one of these situations.
22:07
You pretty much have to run perfect to get to six. Giants under, five and a half minus 120. Yeah, I li- I, I mean, I love it. Obviously it was on my list, too.
22:15
I have a feeling, uh, this was Steve Fezzik's wi- uh, all, under I tailed him on last year. I think I'll be looking at the same one. Like, I'll go under four with this team. I think they could be that bad.
22:24
Uh, for me, it's NFC West. Uh, going back to where we first looked at NFC West odds, Gil. Rams, Rams over nine and a half. This is just a play on what, how I vi- view the division as a whole.
22:32
I think the Rams are the best team in the division. I'll go over nine and a half right now with that team. All right.
22:37
Our number one season win totals, Kelly's and mine, on the other side, plus Zach Cohen, and I promise I'll finally have it over. Four unders for me to start things. An over, hmm, who will it be next?
22:48
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. You can get more NBA prop analysis like this at Unabated. Oh, like what?
23:05
Including expert profitable player props projections for every game real time, NBA news, regularly first to release breaking news that helps bettors find edges on markets, sit/start projection scenarios to see how a player's status will impact the projections of their teammates, access to Unabated's expert team, including Justin Fan, through their Discord channels and regular interactive live streams.
23:25
Go to unabated.com/vsin for subscription info. That's unabated.com/vsin. Seems like that promo starts mid-sentence. [laughs] Oh, yeah, may- maybe your producer should check on that, that sort of thing. Maybe he should.
23:38
Yep. [laughs] See if I would check on it. Maybe. Uh, Justin doing great work, uh, on Money Moves on Tuesdays with those guys, coming on for a regular spot. Justin Fan? Yeah. Yeah.
23:46
Yeah, caught a good spot from him the other day. Did we ever have him on, or we couldn't get, we couldn't get it, uh, right away? I believe, I believe we've had him on once or twice. Once or twice. Yeah. Yeah.
23:53
We tried doing it regularly, but it didn't work out. The, uh, by the way, uh, Captain Jack, Rufus, all, uh, behind The Unabated, uh, Surge. Tom Viola. Tom Viola. How dare you leave out Tom? Good buddy Tom Viola.
24:06
Um- Vsin legend... Vsin legend. Um, Gina Fiore working over there as well. We had tweets that beat in the book.
24:12
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, you'd be remiss if you forgot to mention that Max Muncy, who started the season in a tremendous slump, switched the torpedo bat prior to last night's game."
24:19
Yes, but as I told before, the game win- or the game-tying hit was without the torpedo bat. He discarded it. LosVegas514, "Yo." Yo. "So you're saying you have to take the dog just on principle with a minus 500 line?
24:32
Colorado it is. Thanks." [laughs] I did not say that. Jason Stark, "Glad to hear you smartin' up on the Steelers, Kelly. You should follow his lead, Gil." [laughs] JasonHJ- JasonH11, "Yo.
24:42
Call me crazy, but if the Steelers get Rodgers, isn't there a good shot people will bet their win total up this summer, getting us a better under number if we wait?" Great point, Jason. Yes. The numbers, guys.
24:53
Joe Milton, he won a September Heisman back in his Ann Harbor days during COVID. Did you know the University of Michigan has more September Heismans- [laughs]... than any school in history? I did not know that.
25:03
And Larry Fresh- That's good stuff... all these under bets, Gil. The Undertaker, Alexander. [laughs] That's good stuff. Uh, wanna do our number ones real quick before we sign off? Let's do it, yeah.
25:10
Number one favorite season win total, it isn't over for me, finally. Over on the Denver Broncos. Ooh. Yeah, over nine and a half. Um, obviously it's a tough division, but I really like what the Broncos have defensively.
25:23
Bo Nix in year number two. Um, let's go three and three in the division. Let's go conservative. Let's say they split their division games, right? Three and three. Four and two, though, I give 'em remaining home games.
25:34
Here are the remaining home games: Dallas, Jacksonville, the Giants, Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Green Bay. I'm gonna give 'em four and two.
25:41
And then they got, they only have to put together three more wins in the other road games. The other road games are the Jets, the Colts, Texans, Philly, and Washington.
25:51
Gonna be tough, but I think the Broncos are a 10 and seven football team. It's my only over. I think I like it better than all the rest, too. Like it. This is, I'm goin' back to the NFC West.
26:01
T- talked about liking the Rams over. Uh, this is a little bit correlated. Seattle under eight and a half for me would be my favorite one on the board right now, Gil.
26:08
I, I, this feels like we're in f- f- almost full rebuild mode with what's goin' on in Seattle. I think eight and a half is a line that is, uh, pretty dang high for, for a division where I don't see any bad, bad teams.
26:19
I, I, I think Arizona and San Francisco, well, San Francisco might've taken a step back, I think both those teams will still be decent, and I think the Rams are a pretty good football team.
26:28
So under eight and a half, uh, Seattle, uh, for me, Sam Darnold, prove it to me. You can do it with all the, without all the weapons you had in Minnesota. By the way, I love all my five.
26:36
I wanna re, I wanna redo my rankings. I think I like the Giants under better than anything. I probably do, too. Yeah. But I, th- that's another one, though.
26:43
You know, all these teams, or a lot of these teams, with the Giants is another one where I wouldn't sh- I wouldn't be shocked if it goes up a half win no matter what they do in the draft 'cause people just get excited.
26:52
Again, we haven't bet these yet, but those are out. Zach Cohen now joins us, the first half of the Zach and Crack comedy duo here on, uh, Thursdays, here on The Numbers Game.
27:01
He joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Betting On X is where you can follow him on Twitter. How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. How are you guys? Doing very well, Zach. Congratulations.
27:09
I know you had a, uh, you had a Joker future in Miami, but you properly hedged with, uh, Mensik in the final, so mazel tov to you, sir. Yep, I did.
27:19
I thought you were bringing up the Practical Jokers again, and I'm like, "Do not congratulate me for anything I've said about them in the last two weeks." [laughs] Okay.
27:25
Since you bring it up, since you bring it up, I just wanna say this, ladies and gentlemen. Never, a never sees on Zach Cohen's favorite TV shows, because some awful things will immediately happen.
27:37
[laughs] Starts building him up, and then, geez, everybody goes down. Wow. This man can curse a TV show like no other. The greatest Veesin curse I've ever seen. This is amazing.
27:47
Um, not a laughing matter, but in the case of Zach Cohen, cursing it, it is a laughing matter. Um, okay. Any tennis, uh, on clay or fake clay this week from you?
27:57
Yeah, I have Stan Wawrinka today against Pedro Martinez, which is just more of a fade on Martinez, who's the second seeded player in that tournament and just has been terrible since the start of 2025.
28:06
He's seven and nine since the start of the year, has not played well on clay, which is where he's supposed to play well.
28:11
Uh, Wawrinka had a win yesterday where he struggled to kinda get to the finish line but did end up winning, and I do think that's a match that he can win. So I grabbed it at plus money odds.
28:19
I'm not even sure what it is now, but I think it's worth a play on him. Stanislas Wawrinka, one of the greats, by the way.
28:25
It gets lost because he was in the, uh, in the Federer, Nadal, Djokovic era, but still won himself three Slams, the only guy to win multiple, uh, during that era.
28:35
Okay, um, considering this era is no longer that with Sinner and Alcaraz. Um, let's go to the NBA. What do you like in the association tonight? I have the Warriors tonight. Mm.
28:46
And it kinda contradicts something that I said o- on, uh, with JVT last night, where I said I think I'd pick the Lakers over the Warriors in a first round series.
28:53
But I do think Golden State, the way that they're playing right now, is a good bet against Los Angeles.
28:58
The Warriors, you know, you break things down from March 1st and beyond, have been a top seven team in the NBA, top 10 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.
29:06
The Lakers haven't been quite as good lately, trying to work LeBron back into the mix. That's a really dangerous team in Los Angeles.
29:13
I think JJ Redick's gonna be able to do a really good job in a playoff series, where you're gonna kinda be able to put his, you know, X's and O's acumen to the test.
29:19
But I think Golden State's the right side tonight with the way the two teams are playing. I am also on the Dubs tonight, uh, catching two. This is a, this is a huge game tonight, I mean, for both teams- Yep...
29:28
but especially on the Warriors, right on that bubble, Gil. F- potentially falling back in the p- uh, into the play-in tournament. Gotta avoid, massive game in LA. I'm on Golden State as well.
29:37
Potentially falling back into the play-in tournament, but also potentially moving up to four or three. Exactly. That's where all this stuff's at right now. Yep. Yep. It's unbelievable.
29:44
Right now, if the playoffs were to start right at this very moment, it would be the Warriors and the Nuggets. Um, but that is a fluid situation for sure. Is that the only one in the NBA for you?
29:53
Uh, I think I'm gonna take the Heat against the Grizzlies. I, I, it, it's a tough spot. Miami's coming off the second leg of a- To back. Uh, played the Celtics last night, did beat them.
30:02
I do think this is still a spot though where Miami's won six in a row. Memphis is really struggling. You know, I, I just don't really trust this Grizzlies team right now.
30:10
I think it's really hard to kind of adjust on the fly to a new coach. So I think the Heat getting the points and the Heat on the, on the money line is worth the sprinkle.
30:17
Did you s- I, I didn't bring this up yesterday, but did you see the Ja Morant thing again? When making like a- It's wild... miming gun, you know, gun play again.
30:25
I don't know if Buddy Hield started it or whatever, but like what are you doing? How stupid are you? I saw someone say to put him in a room and tell him to get it all out of his system for like four hours.
30:34
[laughs] He'll never do it again. Yeah. We go to commercial against the Warriors and Draymond immediately goes to the refs. He's like, "You see that?"
30:39
The, the, the- [laughs] So the one o- like the overhead broadcast shot I guess is the only one I've seen.
30:45
Oh, oh my, man, the more times you watch it though, it sure looks like Buddy Hield kinda got, got him into it, you know? But, but you know what? So what if he did? I know. No, I know. I know. So what if he did? Really.
30:54
I believe my kindergarten teacher told me two wrongs do not make a right. [laughs] Pretty sure that, that applies here. Um, okay, let's go to the, uh, let's go to the final four. How many plays you have here?
31:06
Have you jumped in both games? I have a bigger play on the Houston game. I did take some Auburn plus 135 yesterday, but I really like Houston plus five and a half. Also played plus 222.
31:17
That's my bigger one of the day and really the one that matters to me. I think that the Cougars are being a little bit underrated offensively.
31:24
I think that when you kinda rank the players in this game in terms of the way that they're able to create offense, it's Flagg, and then I think it's the three Houston guards.
31:32
So I think that for as good as Houston is defensively and for as much as we wanna label them a defensive-minded team, that's a team that if this is close late, I kinda trust them a little bit more to create offense.
31:43
And I think that something else that's being overlooked a little bit is Houston has a guy named Joseph Tugler, who is this year's NBA draft prospect that is like an elite defensive wing that can't play a lick of offense.
31:54
But he's gonna play 25 minutes in this game. He's going to guard Cooper Flagg. It's going to be the best defender that Flagg has seen all season long. So the other guys on Duke are going to need to create.
32:04
I think that Proctor can do it. I'm not sure the other guys can. So the play is? Houston plus five and a half and Houston plus 222. Okay. And in the other game? I took Auburn plus 135. Okay.
32:16
I, I'm hoping Broome is healthy. I have doubts about that. I thought that when we watched him, you know, against Michigan State, that right arm was just dangling by the side once he came back into the game.
32:26
You know, he's had a week to get it right, and he did knock down a three after that injury, but obviously if he's not healthy, they're not gonna be able to win that game.
32:34
But took a shot on it just because there's SEC familiarity.
32:37
I don't think much separates the two teams based on what we saw all season long, and I don't think Florida in the tournament has looked quite as good as the team that we saw in the regular season and in the SEC tournament.
32:48
All right, last 30 seconds, Zach. Back to the NBA 'cause this is what we've been talking about, those of us, uh, who are making these bets off air.
32:54
Um, if the Thunder win their last six and they win 70 games, should Mark Daigneault be the coach of the year? I actually wrote this in an NBA check-in I did a few days ago.
33:04
I said that if they win 70 games, he should win coach of the year. It's kinda been Atkinson's all year, uh, but I do think if they win 70, that he should get the nod.
33:12
I also, I did wanna say that I'd keep a close eye on the six and seven seeds in the Western Conference because there are teams like the Timberwolves and Grizzlies that I think are very close to being the second-best teams in the Western Conference.
33:24
Oh, wow. If they can avoid the OKC match up, those are teams worth taking on the futures market. Wow, okay. Grizzlies? No, not Grizzlies. Just Clippers and, uh, just Clippers and Timberwolves. Oh, okay.
33:35
I misheard Clippers. Who, who's your defensive player of the year? I think it's Daniels or Zubac, but Zubac isn't getting any love, so it seems like a waste to even say it. Okay. I think the correct answer is Dort. Dort.
33:46
Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Coming back with Tim Murray on the final floor next.
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