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Apr 6, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | April 6, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | April 6, 2026
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46:02
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
There's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. What'd I leave out? Sirius XM channel 158.
0:18
It's Gil Alexander alongside, to my left, to your right, the great Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Good morning, sir. Good morning. How we doing? I'm the great. Wow. Yeah, you can be the great. Wow, appreciate that. Yeah.
0:30
Lady Silkman. [laughs] Show's brought to you by Prophet X. Oh, so much to get into today. It's the Natty tonight, the national championship, UConn and Michigan. Not necessarily in that order.
0:42
Michigan favored by, well, it was seven and a half, six and a half behind us at, uh, Circa. It's a touchdown, seven exactly, um, depending on where you look in the, you know, thereabouts. And, uh, [laughs]
0:55
I'm just, I'm gonna do a lot of this. Mostly sevens out there, yeah. I'm gonna do a lot. I think I'm gonna do too much of this today.
1:00
But if you recall, I, I painted that scenario last week where I said, "Well, imagine if Michigan r- you know, goes back to how they looked back early in the season- Mm-hmm...
1:09
when they were here in Vegas and they beat Gonzaga by 40, they won a couple other games by 30. They didn't, they didn't quite do that on Saturday, but you get the idea. What would the number be?
1:18
And here's our answer: seven, seven and a half, six and a half, somewhere in that pocket. Yeah, yeah, it's a great call. You and I were playing that guessing game- Yeah...
1:25
and we, we had the look-ahead lines, and we- Yeah... we, we kind of said we, we thought it might be a little light, period, but then especially if something like that happened, that's exactly what played out. Yep.
1:34
That's exactly what played out. And UConn trying to win their third title in four years. Uh, Greg Peterson will join us here momentarily on the show to discuss. Wes Reynolds a little later on.
1:46
We'll also talk Masters with Wes.
1:48
Uh, you, Matt Brown, and I gonna have a little primetime action reunion, do a Beating the Book Masters pod after the show today, which is a precursor to your Long Shots podcast on the Masters. Let's go.
1:58
And Adam Burke will join us to ta- to discuss the national championship in Major League Baseball a little later on the show as well. Um, we'll do April, March-April Most Wins update. We'll do all that.
2:07
We gotta, [laughs] we gotta discuss the NBA awards market. By God, it's another one that I think I, I kind of foretold. We'll get into that momentarily. About the, uh, about the national championship. So one,
2:22
I'm out of Survivor, and I s- but I still have my UConn ticket, 16 to one. Ooh, so what, what'd you, what'd you end up doing with Survivor?
2:30
So Survivor, th- this is the, this is also the point about, um, NCAA Survivor is the greatest thing ever. March Madness Survivor is the greatest thing ever. It's very different from NFL Survivor in, in several ways.
2:43
We've discussed, we've discussed the, the, the main way, which is it's a bracket, so you have to, unlike the NFL, you have to be concerned with who you have left at the end in a way that you don't necessarily in the NFL.
2:56
You do in the NFL some, but in the, in, in the, you know, in the bracket format, you really have to have teams left available.
3:03
And so, um, what ends up happening, and I said this the last couple weeks heading into the Sweet, or after the Sweet 16 and then after the F- you know, heading into the Final Four week, which is,
3:14
you know, you, the, the, the pool happens to you at a certain point, especially if you f- if you're behind like I was. And I kept saying, "Even if I play it perfectly, I'm not sure I can get to the promised land."
3:25
So I ended up, answering your question, I ended up playing Arizona on Saturday hoping to save UConn for Monday night because that was the only way from 30th place that I would be able to catapult ahead because I knew most people would play it UConn then Arizona.
3:41
Now, there's only 25 spots that cashed. Anybody else who gets to the end gets 100 bucks just as, "Hey, way to go. You did what you, you could do." Mm-hmm.
3:55
Um, all I did by doing it that way was cost myself $100 by not doing that. Because if I had played it UConn, Arizona, I would not have advanced at all. And by the way, the pool is over. Nobody has anybody left to play.
4:08
Really? Everybody's used Michigan, everybody's used UConn. So if I had played it the other way- Wow... right, my only choice was UConn, Arizona or Arizona, UConn.
4:15
If I had played it UConn, Arizona, I still wouldn't have... I, I st- I woulda just gotten 100 bucks for, "Hey, congratulations, you got to the end with everybody."
4:22
The only way I could have catapulted into the top 10, by the way, I couldn't have won it. I would have gotten into the top 10, was by playing it the way I did, which was Arizona, UConn, which doesn't end up happening.
4:31
So that's the difference also betw- that's the difference between the NCAA, uh, Survivor and NFL. NCAA Survivor can be determined in rounds one and two. Mm-hmm.
4:42
Which is exactly what happened here based on people getting ahead of you. In NFL Survivor, it doesn't get determined in week five or week four or week six or whatever.
4:52
You just, you have to keep playing and playing and playing. Well- So that's, it's a, it's a fundamental difference between the two games. So there was really no...
4:58
That's why you, that's why I didn't talk about it much last week, 'cause I'm like, first of all, nobody's in it with me, and secondly, I can't really win this. Yeah.
5:05
I, I, f- fun as always, but, uh, a- I mean, and I guess you didn't know it ahead of time, but yeah, you, you ended up making the right moves. Oh, no. You know, it's the only way you could've played it.
5:13
I made all the right moves. Yeah. Made all the right moves. Only way you could've played it down to the end. It was so great. It's such a great contest.
5:17
I recom- and again, I hope we talked it up enough this year heading into it that folks are, uh, pumped to play it next year.
5:23
I do have that UConn ticket at 16 to one, and Will asked me yesterday on the group chat, he's like, "How, how are you gonna do this? How are you gonna play this?"
5:30
So for me, I had one future in college football, I had one future in college basketball. My one future in college football was Indiana. I got 'em at 10 to one midway through the season.
5:40
I think it was after the Oregon game, if I'm not mistaken. 10 to one. Going into the national championship, remember though, Indiana was about a, what? A seven-and-a-half, eight-point favorite against Miami. Mm-hmm.
5:50
So I took Miami plus the points. That is not a hedge, right? People refer to that as a hedge. That's not a hedge. A hedge, by definition, lowers the ceiling and raises the floor. That's not. I was just greedy.
6:03
I wanted to win both and I did. Had I played Miami on the money line, that's a hedge. Mm-hmm. Right? But I didn't do it that way.
6:10
You, you could if Miami doesn't cover it, you could have lowered your ceiling, um, but it didn't happen that way. I, I grabbed both. This is different. This I have the dog, right?
6:20
UConn is the ex- almost the exact same spread here in basketball but, you know, like seven and a half let's call it, consensus. UConn is the dog. So what do I do? So, uh, my answer to Will was my ideal scenario is
6:34
UConn takes a lead early. Takes a lead early, whatever the score is. By the way, it can't be too early 'cause then it won't affect the number enough. Right. Yeah. But early e- or early-ish
6:47
where the odds move and so then I can money line, 'cause remember Michigan's a $3 favorite on the money line right now. Then the money line gets muted, then I jump in live and I will bet Michigan to recover my outlay.
7:03
Now, the second part of that, which we don't talk about nearly enough when we're doing a show quietly here while sitting down with no game going on in the middle of the week before the game's actually happening is,
7:16
okay, if UConn does go up, let's say, I don't know what the score is. Let's call it 20 to 13 with nine minutes left in the first half, and then I get a favorable money line on Michigan.
7:28
Will I have the ability at that point- Right. Yeah... to, to say to myself, "Don't get too cocky, buddy. I know you're thinking UConn's gonna win this now." Yeah. "Don't not do what you said you were gonna do."
7:40
And so I am promising myself that in that scenario I will grab Michigan to at least grab my outlay so I don't lose money in any of this. That's my strategy.
7:47
Now, if Michigan g- if Michigan comes out of the gate and they, let's say it's 20 to nothing and this game is over, well, too bad. Then too bad for me 'cause I will just lose my bet. But Indiana was my only football bet.
7:59
UConn is my only basketball bet. Yeah. Good, good on you. I'd lo- I'd love to hit both of those. Good on you. Man, Will, Danny- Everybody... Dave. Dave Ross has it. Yeah, I feel like everybody's got...
8:08
I, I, I would be doing the exact same thing, uh, as you if I was in that situation.
8:13
I'd just, like you c- yeah, you could la- you could lay minus 300 before the game if you wanna just lock this in and, I don't know, just watch the game. Lock something in. But I would be doing the same thing you are.
8:22
Yeah. I could do that. I could. There's no, there's no, I mean, there's no harm in that. I'm just gonna let it ride a little bit. I would be doing the exact same thing. Yep.
8:33
Even the, even the amount that you're talking about buying off 'cause at that point, right, you're gonna talk about UConn's up. You're already- Yeah... 10 minutes into the game or whatever it's gonna be. Um,
8:43
not, not the greatest Final Four games obviously. Uh, UConn beats Illinois, just in terms of like a fan perspective.
8:48
UConn was, was for those of us, right, who had the UConn ticket, UConn beats Illinois 71-62 in a game that UConn got, I mean, Illinois got as close as four late in that game but they never got it to a one possession game.
9:01
And I don't know, w- when, when UConn would have their, their couple droughts in that game, uh, Raftery and Hill were both sort of like, "Oh, UConn's not doing this. They're not doing that."
9:10
To me it was just, "Oh, no, they just stopped making shots." Mm-hmm. I don't think they were doing anything differently. I th- I thought they played a brilliant game, uh, in winning that.
9:17
And then Michigan, Arizona, which [laughs] we, we were, was dubbed as the main event, right? Was supposed to be this, the two best teams in basketball. Yeah, apparently not.
9:26
Apparently Michigan is just exactly what they were in November at this point, and this is what makes this game tonight so fascinating. Will Michigan just roll the Huskies off the court, or
9:37
will UConn be able to do what the three teams that beat Michigan this year were able to do? So the three teams that beat Michigan this year, Kelly, Wisconsin, Duke, and Purdue.
9:48
Wisconsin shot 50% from the field in that game and 45.5% from behind the arc when they beat Michigan. Duke shot 45.5% from the field when they beat Michigan, out-rebounded Michigan by 12.
10:02
And Purdue shot 52.6% [laughs] from the field when they beat Michigan. So you have to have a game where you are shooting if not lights out, just really, really well from the field.
10:15
That's the first thing you gotta do- Yep... um, to hold your own against this Wolverines team.
10:20
Now famously, of course, if you, for those of a certain age, we remember 1985 considered one of the great upsets in basketball history.
10:26
Really wasn't 'cause Villanova actually played Georgetown twi- uh, tight twice that year if you were a Big East fan and, and you watched those games.
10:33
But Villanova [laughs] against Georgetown in 1985 shot 78.6% from the field and beat Georgetown by two. So UConn doesn't have to beat Villanova. By the way, no, no shot clock back then either.
10:50
Or if there was it was like a bigger shot clock. I can't remember the details of 1985. But just keep in mind, Villanova was nine of 10 from the field in the second half.
10:58
That's how, that's how different the game was at that point, so there had to have been a shot clock. Um, but, or, or no shot clock rather.
11:05
But UConn doesn't have to beat that, but they gotta be as, they gotta be as efficient as Wisconsin, Duke, and Purdue were this year. Let's put it that way. So I don't think it's an impossibility.
11:14
And if anybody can do it, it's Dan Hurley-led UConn team. And by the way, the formula, right, says Michigan, who's the only, what's the only college that destroys the formula? UConn. UConn.
11:25
Whether it's Kevin Ollie, whether it's Dan Hurley with the Sweet 16 provision, the 2014 UConn team in, in every which way, it's UConn. So there's that. If there's a team to bust- Yeah... the formula, it's this one.
11:37
Felt like I heard a lot about the, the Arizona physicality was gonna get to Michigan, and that's what teams had done before that had beat them. We'll see. See, UConn. And we'll- Arizona never really had a chance.
11:47
Boops Peterson will talk to us about this coming up. NBA on the other side. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
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13:11
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Oh, and I shortchanged Victor Wetmanyama. It's four out of five games against the Thunder. Sorry? Four out of five.
13:24
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13:58
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We get tweets beating the book from Ron Burgundy through, uh, through some tweets. What could go wrong? This is from, uh, Colin Murphy.
14:08
"Not a clean hedge, but you could lay the three and a half in the first half. And if it doesn't cash, you'll likely have a much better money line price on Michigan for the game. Could be cheaper than minus 300.
14:19
Or if it hits, just sit [laughs] sit back with a winner." Uh, I'm already, my head's already exploding on this. "Or play first to 25 or 30 with Michigan." No, I'm just gonna do it my way. I'm gonna wait for- Yeah...
14:30
see if UConn takes a lead and- We all get set in our ways, though. Yeah. I, I guess that ha- the first half thing is, is an approach you could take. Hedging, very, very personal thing. Yep.
14:39
Uh, Johnny B., "Is rookie of the year not same as May Stafford MVP?" I, I don't know. In, in, oh, in the sense that what? That Stafford grabbed it late? Is that what you mean? I, I don't know.
14:51
I don't think Stafford grabbed it late, though. I've got a lot of con- I got a lot of confusing tweets this weekend about this, [laughs] like comparing it to other things. Yeah. I'm just like, uh, I don't even know.
14:58
Or, or do you mean that May had a surge in the market late, but it was all for naught kind of thing? Maybe that's what he means.
15:05
Uh, Coach Brian, "Do you see a scenario where-" Yeah, yeah, that was more of a thing, right? Do you see a scenario where... Yeah, that was, I think.
15:12
"Do you see a scenario where Flagg and Kneppel could end up as co-rookies of the year? Seemed like that's where it's heading. I put some pizza money on that over at Cal.
15:19
She haven't seen any sports books with that option." Does Cal. She have a co? Uh, they do. Wow. We, we got this question probably two or three weeks ago, Gil.
15:27
Um, I think it was, like, I think it was on a weekend or something, someone tweeted at me. That was like f- I feel it was like 50 to 1. I don't know. And maybe you remember.
15:36
I don't remember how this was voted on 20, 30 years ago. There has been very, ver- I think we've had ties like twice, three times or something in the history of this award.
15:45
It's very tough to get a tie, though, when you have, uh, what, 50 vo- I think it's 50 voters for rookie of the year, 50 or 100. 100 and you're...
15:53
I mean, 100- if you have 100 voters that are picking one, two, for it to exactly land 50/50- It's tough... it's tough. Yeah. It's tough, but an interesting bet nonetheless. It- it's just- I should point out-...
16:05
it's different if the voting process was, "Here's m- my number one is, is, is two guys," right? "I'm giving it co-rookie of the year." Right. But people can't vote like that. NCI95 Gambler, "Thanks for the future, Gil.
16:16
Kelly not hedging the ticket, maybe looking in play to see if we can get plus money or plus points on Michigan. Otherwise, we ride till the end. We made it this far. He's got UConn at my same number, 16 to 1."
16:26
Yeah, that's the s- that's the strategery for me as well. Let's talk some Michigan UConn with Greg Hoops Peterson, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at gunit_81.
16:37
His tribute to Anquan Boldin back in the day. Greg joins us now from his lair somewhere here in the desert. Uh, what are we looking at, a purple background today, Greg? Is that our choice? We went blue today. Blue.
16:50
We got on a blue suit, so I went with the blue background. We always try to color code. Oh, I... This might be a poor tint of what ev- what he's about to pick then maybe. That's what I was thinking. Yeah.
16:59
But then do- it, does it clear it up? In, uh, a little bit. [laughs] Little bit because I think Michigan is more as- Go blue. [laughs]... more associated with the blue.
17:07
Uh, UConn Michigan tonight, seven point, uh, favorite are the Wolverines. Uh, 144 is the total. Before we get your thoughts on that, uh, any takeaways from the semis themselves?
17:18
Were you, were you surprised by one more than the other? Not really surprised that UConn was able to get the job done against Illinois.
17:28
Typically, three-point shooting just goes into the abyss when you have a football stadium that is converted for basketball. UConn has guarded the three-point well, lo- three-point line well all season long.
17:39
So them taking down Illinois was not a shock. Like, I thought whoever was gonna win Arizona versus Michigan, I thought it was gonna be, like, a one or two possession squeaker.
17:49
I thought that it was gonna be a nice close game. The de facto title game, that was not a de facto title game. That was an absolute beat down that Michigan absolutely put on.
17:57
And that's a big reason why I did land on Michigan in this game.
18:00
You can't just unsee what you saw a few nights ago, because this very Arizona team went on the road, knocked off UConn earlier in the year, and Michigan just absolutely romped them in that game.
18:12
Like, I thought that was gonna be an incredibly competitive game. Arizona zapping embarrass all season long.
18:17
They had lost just two games overall in overtime to Texas Tech and to Kansas on Big Monday, where they're quite literally 41 and 0 against themselves, and Arizona looked like a high school team out there. So I...
18:30
And that's a big reason why I'm in on Michigan in this game. Even though Axel Lundborg may not be 100%, they just have so much size down low. They do such a good job in terms of being able to control the paint.
18:41
And if UConn has to settle for a lot of three-point shots, I don't think that that's a forte of theirs, especially with Michigan also being one of the better three-point defense's in the country.
18:50
So Michigan laying the points regardless of, uh, Lundborg's injury and, and what status he is playing, by the way, again, to clarify, but to see, uh, to what extent he's, he's able to, uh, really be his full self, we shall see.
19:02
It's one thing to hit a couple threes after your injury the other day. It's not like he was, uh- You know, tomahawk jamming and doing, uh, all kinds of more athletic things on the court. The total's 144.
19:14
Are you playing that as well? Yep, I'm in on the over, and I do think that this is a very correlated play. Because if you think that UConn is gonna be able to hold in there, you're likely banking on a slog.
19:25
You're banking on them making this as slow as possible because these two teams have completely different tempos. UConn is about three or an eighth or so in the country in terms of total possessions per game.
19:35
Michigan is a top 45 team in the country in terms of total possessions per game.
19:40
Now, for Michigan, even with the Linderborg injury, I think that they're gonna be feeling right at home if they can get this game playing fast, if they're able to get those nice buckets down low in transition.
19:50
And for UConn, they're looking to make this game as slow as possible. They would love it if there were only, like, 50 possessions or so in this game.
19:58
So I do think that's very much correlated, and I do think that Michigan gonna look to be able to crank up the tempo a little bit more.
20:04
Michigan has gotten to 80-plus points in every single game here in the NCAA tournament. UConn has pretty much been playing exclusively unders aside from that first-round game against Furman.
20:13
So I do like the over in this spot with Michigan trying to be able to speed it up. So Michigan in the over. Okay, let's close with a little two-part.
20:21
Let's do a little sports talk radio, a little two-part sports talk radio question. [laughs] And I don't... Uh, you're the perfect person because if it's me, I'm gonna go back to the '80s and talk about teams then.
20:30
If Michigan wins this, in your lifetime, where does this team stack up against some of the greats?
20:39
Boy, that is a good question because I still think that you have to put that Kentucky team that lost to Wisconsin in the Final Four up there because they made the Final Four undefeated. Yeah.
20:50
They didn't get the job done, but they still made it to the Final Four undefeated, so you have to give them a little bit of credit where it's due.
20:57
And like that Zion Williamson Duke team, they didn't even make the Final Four, but that was a team that was stacked. The Duke team last year that did not make the national title game, they were stacked.
21:08
They don't get the job done.
21:09
I would say in my lifetime it's a top 10 team, but I'm just not in the business of really comparing, and I would need to really go back because it's not something I really take a lot of inventory of, to be honest. Okay.
21:21
I'm more of a one game at a time, one day at a time sort of guy, so I would need to think back.
21:26
Like, the 2018 Villanova team, that was a really good one with Jalen Brunson and the way that they just romped through the NCAA tournament.
21:33
We saw UConn just two years ago absolutely roll through the NCAA tournament as well. So somewhere in the top 10. I would really need to think about it in terms of where I'd put it in the top 10 though. Okay. All right.
21:44
That's fair. Well, that, that ruins the second part of my question because the second part...
21:47
By the way, Barkley, Charles Barkley said that he, uh, he's, he's only fa- He said he thinks this is the third team since he's been doing college basketball. He thinks this is the third in, in the group of the top three.
21:59
Uh, the Kentucky team with Anthony Davis was one of them. I think he said the second UConn team also, the one that you're referring to.
22:05
The, the second part of the question, and I, I will strike it from you 'cause I don't want you to have to answer it if y- if you don't feel comfortable, is if UConn wins it, right, it's three championships in four years.
22:14
That's its own stratosphere, so the same question could apply to them. So we'll, we'll, uh, sort of ponder it, uh, as the day goes on. Um, what...
22:23
It, it's so difficult to ask this in this day and age with players moving about so much, but as we look ahead to next year, since we're not gonna have a chance to talk to you here anymore in the college basketball season, as we look ahead to next year, is there a team who, short of knowing their full roster, you feel like their core is such that you might keep an eye on them in the futures market?
22:47
TBD. Like, the biggest thing is we don't know how this litigation that came down over the weekend is gonna be affecting things because last year 2,500 players entered into the transfer portal.
22:58
Like, it's not news when a player enters into the transfer portal. It's news when a player doesn't enter into the transfer portal in this day and age.
23:05
So you completely need to know, all right, is this guy gonna be entering into the NBA draft? Because, like, I would be in on Arkansas if Darius Acuff was coming, or t- if Acuff was coming back to school.
23:17
He's not coming back to school, though. So, like, it's a big, giant TBD.
23:21
I would not be tying up my money right now for about 12 or so months with this because a lot of people did that with Purdue this last year, and that did not go well for the people that tied up their money for 12 months with Purdue.
23:32
So I think the biggest thing is sit back, wait. You don't need to take a look at the futures market right now in college basketball.
23:39
Let these guys make their decisions as to whether or not they're gonna be going elsewhere. See what happens with the litigation that came down over the weekend, and ponder it from there.
23:47
Greg Peterson on Michigan and on the over tonight in the national championship. Greg, enjoy. Thank you so much. Always appreciate it. Thank y'all. Greg Peterson, everybody. Hoops Peterson.
23:58
Man's nickname is Hoops, for God's sake. Baseball update on March, April, and April markets next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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24:47
Download the ProfitX app, use promo code VSiNMM, make your first purchase, earn that bonus, get in on the action at Augusta. Download ProfitX today and use promo code VSiNMM. We got tweets beneath the book.
24:58
Uh, these guys are all setting me straight. Uh, this is from, uh... Well, these aren't.
25:02
Mike Rouse, "Remember the days, uh, when you would have the national championship game, MLB opening day, and the Masters all during the same week?" Yes, I do I owe you S 69. I have UConn 35 to one for $7.
25:16
I made this bet on a dare. I'm a Michigan fan through and through. I'm hoping UConn gets out to a lead, cash out my ticket and root for Michigan. [laughs] You gotta cash out that $7.
25:24
Hey, this is a g- great Swami- Made that bet on a dare. On a dare. I dare you to bet $7 on UConn. [laughs] Oh, it's great Swami Gator says, uh, "It's the most bestest time of the year for golf fans.
25:36
This Masters will be awesome. Weather looks great. For us golfers it's like our Super Bowl. If I was limited to only one sports event to watch all year, it'd be this for me."
25:45
You know, great Swami Gator, you are not alone. It's up there. There's... Is there anything better than Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday just sitting on your couch- Oh, it's fantastic... watching the Masters?
25:57
Just say, "Don't bother me." It's fantastic. Just bring me food, or get myself some food. I wanna watch the m- the majesty.
26:05
Chris Heath, "The best year was when WrestleMania, Masters round four, and Easter all fell on the same day sandwiched by the Final Four." [laughs] WrestleMania on Easter. Hey, let's put WrestleMania on Easter. Oh, man.
26:17
Hoops by Hoots, "Masters always the Thursday after the national championship because Jim Nantz always used to talk about how busy of a week he had." You are correct. Hoops by Hoots, that's exactly right.
26:27
That was Jim Nantz's thing. What a life I have. Yeah, sure. I go from the national championship and I fly to Augusta for a tradition unlike any other. Hello, friends. Holy Buckeye, Kirk Chamberlain, Masters in pockie.
26:40
He's got Oberer 22 to one, McIntyre 45 to one, Adam Scott 80 to one, Bryson DeChambeau 11 to one. Also, I have the Reds today. More first five. Jinx? LOL. Hey, come on, man.
26:52
Mikey P, "For as long as I can remember, the Masters has always been after the Men's Final Four.
26:56
Everyone was always enthralled/jealous of the quick turnaround Jim Nantz had going from calling the Natty on Monday, then going straight to Augusta." That's exactly right.
27:04
So it's, it's, it's the Nantz calendar that proves it. The Nantz break, yeah. Yeah. Yep. You're absolutely right. That's exactly what he did. Uh, David Allison, "Alexander, where's the tennis place? [laughs] You owe me.
27:14
Kids need spring clothes after spring break." Uh, you know what? And we're gonna do this in Country Club, but I handicap Monte Carlo. The men are now in Europe on the clay.
27:23
There is no more beautiful tennis venue than Monte Carlo. I didn't like a single play today, not a single play. Yeah. You, you- We'll be back at it tomorrow...
27:32
you and Drew and I are supposed to go there after the Delray Beach Open. That's right. Right after that we go to Monte Carlo. You, you want some WNBA bre- breaking note, news? Breaking news.
27:40
Let's bring Wes Reynolds in for this. Wes Reynolds, who knows himself some women's basketball. Wes Reynolds, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
27:46
[clears throat] You can follow him on Twitter @wesreynolds1. That's the number one courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Wes, we'll learn this, uh, breaking news together. What do you got?
27:53
Yeah, this is coming from Taylor Rooks, who you see on NBA on Prime. Uh, Angel Reese headed to the Atlanta Dream. A trade between the Sky and Dream. She doesn't have any details, but, uh- Oh...
28:05
yeah, they have agreed on a trade according to her. Wes, any reaction to that?
28:10
Well, uh, not really a surprise because, uh, Angel Reese, it seemed like her and Chicago were kind of at an impasse, you know, with whether, you know, she sat out a couple games and just wasn't working out, and the Chicago Sky were really bad last year.
28:25
So not surprised to see her necessarily on the move. Uh, but we are gonna see... Actually, we were talking b- before we came on air, guys, about how condensed the sports calendar is. Yes.
28:37
It especially is in the WNBA, uh, even if you're not a regular follower of it, because now you are having...
28:44
Because the, the labor agreement, uh, went a little bit of extra time, so now you have free agency, like, really rapid here o- over, like, the next week or so.
28:55
You have a trade market obviously with the Reese move, uh, to Atlanta.
28:59
You have, in college you have the portal opening the day after UCLA cuts down the Nets, uh, down there in Phoenix and wins the College National Championship, and then they're gonna be starting with exhibition season.
29:10
So, like, we're getting really close here because they usually start this regular season in very early May, kind of when the NBA ha- is really into the playoffs, like they're into the, kind of that second round.
29:22
But everything is very condensed right now, so you're gonna see a lot of these moves right now, and a lot of big names moving to different places in the WNBA over the next couple weeks. Yeah.
29:33
We were, what we were saying was it w- so in the end it wasn't the condensed for me wasn't National Championship, the Masters. The fact that the draft is only two weeks after the Masters.
29:42
That feels like it usually was three weeks. And then the Derby falls on May 2nd this year, so that's compressed up. So it's that whole, this whole month is awesome.
29:53
Um, as great as football is, the stretch between March Madness all the way through the Derby is, is phenomenal. Real quick before we get off, uh, women's basketball, obviously the women had their Final Four as well.
30:03
South Carolina breaks UConn's massive winning streak in the semis. Geno Auriemma does not handle it well after that game. It was kind of embarrassing. [laughs] Not kind of, it was to me.
30:14
Uh, they end up playing, South Carolina does, UCLA in the final, and then UCLA roll South Carolina. Could you have, uh, predicted any of that? Uh, I didn't think that they would roll them.
30:25
I thought they certainly would be competitive. But going back to Friday, uh, uh, Geno bought that, uh, North Philly out of Don Staley.
30:32
He, he absolutely did, uh, a- after the game, and, uh, uh, Don Staley looked like she was more than ready to go with Geno Auriemma with how he, he behaved.
30:41
[laughs] And, and I even tweeted that out because Holly Rowe did the interview in the third quarter, or at the end of the third quarter, and Geno was complaining, complaining how Don was cussing out the referees and they, they weren't getting any fouls called their way.
30:53
And I had the tweet and tweeted the video out. That handshake's gonna be pleasant. Little did I know [laughs] that that's what it would turn into, but- That's right...
31:01
but going into S- but going into Sunday, seniors win. And, and, uh, you know, what did, uh, Mike Brey, the former Notre Dame head coach say? "Get old, stay old." And that's what UCLA did.
31:11
They had six seniors on that team And, and, uh, just absolutely took 'em apart.
31:18
Uh, and you've got a couple people, speaking of condensed WNBA schedule, we're gonna have the draft here, I believe, I believe it's next week, uh, that we're gonna have that.
31:26
So you're gonna see Lauren Betts and Gabriela Jaquez, uh, go very early in that draft. So, uh, uh, doesn't stop, uh, in basketball, whether it's men's or women's right now.
31:37
Congratulations to our girl Danielle Olivari, our Primetime Action cohost- For sure... UCLA winning the national championship. As far as tonight's game, UConn and Michigan. Michigan favored by seven total, 144.
31:48
You, I am told, are not playing it either of those ways. How are you playing this? Yeah, I'm, I'm playing Michigan, but I'm playing it through a different way. I'm playing it through the team total, over 75 and a half.
31:58
Uh, I think Michigan's the better team. I think the number is fair. But the Dan Hurley fear factor I think is absolutely real. I think, I, I think I read he was, like, 10 and 0 on one day prep against the number.
32:10
The guy's the best in the business, and there's a reason why, you know, he's getting talked with some of the all-time greats, especially if he wins, if he wins this one tonight. But I...
32:21
UConn, what concerns me for them, and you saw what Michigan did on Saturday to Arizona, who's still, by the way, the number two defensive efficiency team. [laughs] And Michigan scored 1.17 points per possession- Yeah...
32:34
on them on Saturday. And that was even with a few minutes of walk-ons in at the end, so it could've been, like, 1.25, 1.3. What concerns me for UConn is they foul a lot.
32:44
I think they're about in the 300s in terms of foul rate. They had 21 fouls against Illinois.
32:50
Like, they got in the bonus very, very quickly, and Danny Hurley really had to coach, uh, very hard to kinda balance that foul trouble with some of his guys, and he did a great job.
33:00
I just think Michigan can score at all three levels. They can score inside. They could- Linderborg's a three-level guy. They could shoot the three.
33:08
So that's where I think UConn could get into a little bit of trouble, where maybe Michigan's gonna get this at a little bit faster pace than they want, and then the foul game, Michigan can absolutely live at the line.
33:18
So I played the team total, and, and I'm not wanting to get in front of them. That being said, I don't wanna lay [laughs] 10 big points against Danny Hurley in a big-time game, so Michigan team total over 75 and a half.
33:29
I asked this earlier of Greg. I'll ask it of you. Uh, if Michigan wins this, where does this team rank for you? And the same could be said for UConn, right? If they win, this is three out of four.
33:39
Where do they rank legacy-wise for you if that happens? Oof. Yeah, I would have to go a little bit more recency on that.
33:46
Uh, you know, they're probably, you know, certainly maybe the best team in, in, in I think the last 10 or 15 years.
33:52
I don't know if I'm ready to put them with, like, some of the great UCLA teams or the '76 Indiana team or anything like that, but this is a different game now.
34:00
It's much harder to have a roster balance, you know, with the NIL and with the- Sure... portal. So it's much harder I think right now to win, because you can't keep these guys together for very long. For sure.
34:11
And if Michigan wins, the reason I ask was Barkley said for him in the time that he's covered college hoops, which is obviously a short, uh, runway, but he said it was the, uh, the Anthony Davis Kentucky team, the second UConn team, and this Michigan team.
34:24
You'd put it up in that stratosphere as well? I would. I probably would. Yeah, that Kentucky team was loaded with talent, and they got beat in the semifinals, coincidentally enough, in Indianapolis.
34:34
So I think that that's a fair comparison, for sure. All right. Wes is gonna hang with us for one more segment. We gotta talk Masters with him.
34:41
Uh, the all-too-early part of the week, obviously the long shots coming up later in the week with Kelly and Matt and Wes.
34:47
We'll get Wes' preliminary thoughts on the Masters, the first of golf's majors, the most prestigious of them all, next on a Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:55
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:12
The Masters is almost here. Can we put the Masters music underneath this, or is that copyright infringement stuff? That's a great question. Matt? Probably the latter, but you know.
35:21
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35:25
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35:37
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35:46
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35:58
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36:13
Awesome contest. Yeah, baby. Splash does a great job. Highly, highly recommend you jumping in that. And yes, the music is copyrighted, so in theory we could play a bit of it, like right now.
36:24
This is gonna be fun television and radio rules for people at home. We could play it, like, right now, but not while we're, not while we're selling something. Oh, gotcha. Mm. Gotcha.
36:32
Do you know that Jim Nantz, uh, his spot, his, his home at Pebble Beach, that when you enter the, the driveway or the entrance area, he plays the Masters music? I have heard this, yes. I've heard this.
36:46
[laughs] Fantastic. The one, uh, uh- Fantastic... I, I was in- Hello, friends... I was in Isleworth neighborhood, which people might remember from the Tiger Woods, uh, cart incident.
36:56
Well, geez, the first cart incident I guess I should say. Um, [smacks lips] Vince Carter lives there. I, I thought, I, uh, maybe wa- wandered over to Vince Carter's house. Driveway is made of encased basketballs- Oh...
37:10
like, from his career. I thought it was like the most badass thing ever. Wow. Like, this significant ball for this game, this significant ball. I was like, "This is cool."
37:17
When he sells the house, do the basketballs stay? Good question.
37:21
I'm gonna, I'm gonna assume the, those go with him, but man, imagine tearing up your whole driveway Stuart Carlin informs us once again, the Masters has followed the NCAA championship, and he uses Jim Nantz as the, uh,
37:32
as the reference point. Yes, he would call the championship game and then travel to Augusta. John A. Cornell Jr., I knew n- I knew someone would not...
37:38
[laughs] I knew there would be at least one person that wouldn't let the west 1976 Indiana reference go. He goes, "Michi- Michigan would be a 10-point favorite over the '76 Indiana group.
37:48
Different, a different type of athlete today. They are the Pistons." Sorry. Why are the Pistons get- jumped into that? Why'd they catch a stray? Wait, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know either.
37:58
Wes Reynolds joins us now. Wes, you knew that was coming, right? Oh, of course. [laughs] Now, now probably they would be the favorite- [laughs]...
38:06
'cause look, sports science and sports nutrition has evolved over, like, the last five decades, so you would ex- expect that a team of today would be favored over a team in 1976.
38:16
Yeah But the, the all-time greatest team of the last 50 years, who by the way will be honored in Indianapolis tonight for the 50-year anniversary, is the '76 Hoosiers, because they are the last undefeated team.
38:27
Undefeated. Yeah. Uh, yeah, yeah. I mean, UCLA, John Wooden obviously had a couple in the late '60s, but, uh, yeah. Look, it's hard to go undefeated.
38:35
We mentioned it with that Kentucky team, uh, uh, that lost to, uh, Wisconsin in Indianapolis on that Saturday of Final Four weekend.
38:43
Uh, it's hard to do it now, but we'll see if the Wolverines are up in that, uh, in that tall of a class at the end of tonight. Give me that starting five. I can name three. Kent Benson, Quinn Buckner, Scott May.
38:55
Who are the other two? Uh, uh, Bobby Wilkerson, uh, wa- was, uh, was the, was the fourth starter, and, uh, I b- I believe it was Jim Thomas- Oh, wow...
39:04
uh, was, was the, uh, was the fifth starter for, uh, that Indiana Hoosier team.
39:09
And they always say that the '75 team was actually better, but Scott May broke his arm, and they lost to Kentucky in the regional final, so kind of a, a little known nugget.
39:18
A, a great team that never obviously got that recognition. [laughs] Could you imagine Scott May and his 1976 lamb chop sideburns trying to check La- uh, La- Yaxell Lendeborg tonight? That would be something.
39:30
[laughs] Uh, okay. With the, with the short shorts. Uh, to the Masters. The Masters, tradition unlike any other. Uh, Wes, I know you're gonna, you're gonna add bets as the week goes on.
39:41
You're gonna do long shots with Kelly and Matt here. Oh, by the way, what's the m- what's the long shots- Ba-bum... whole broadcast format for the week? Are either of you capable of answering this?
39:51
Uh, well, there might be th- some things added, but, uh, 3:00 PM Eastern Time tomorrow is when we will record- Okay... uh, our massive long shots episode.
40:01
Uh, so it'll be out, you know, whenever I can get around to it after that. And then, uh, we'll see what, uh, happens later in the week. Okay. We're gonna be doing a couple other things. Okay. Do,
40:09
do I need to program my Ring bot, by the way, like you were talking about Jim Nantz earlier- Yeah... to have that, my Ring bot pl- at my home play the Masters music? [laughs] I, I, I think I think I need to do that.
40:19
It'd be a lot cooler if you did. Yeah. Yeah.
40:21
I think I, I think I definitely need to do that for, uh, for all the people trying to sell me something, at least they get a, uh, pleasant, uh, form of music while I don't answer the door.
40:29
Well, to the extent that you're able to sort of tell us what you've bet so far, obviously you're gonna add as the week goes on, what have you bet outright so far, and then what...
40:38
And obviously most of this hasn't been posted yet, but what do you have an eye towards getting posted? Yeah, a couple outrights I did bet. One was a good price that was actually at Caesars, if you had that available.
40:50
Uh, uh, Jon Rahm was at 15 to 1 yesterday at Caesars, and he's as low as plus 850 at some places now. Uh, you, I think you could still get him, like, 10, 11, 12-ish to 1.
41:02
But this is a guy, and, and it's a little bit of a leap of faith on a great player and a guy that's won here before.
41:08
His average finish in the five events he's played this year on Liv, granted, they've all been overseas, 2.4 is his average finish. He has won once- Jeez... and five times, but 2.4.
41:20
[laughs] So that tells me at least his game is in good shape, and he feels confident. Now, is he gonna relish being back on the big stage?
41:28
You know, because he's been playing in the middle of the night and, like, you know, whether it's South Africa or Australia or Saudi Arabia. Now he's back on the big stage. I think he's gonna relish it.
41:38
I think he's gonna be excited to, you know, see all the eyeballs of the golf world on him, where he's not playing in the middle of the night. So he is one I bet.
41:46
Uh, Cameron Young, I gotta go with the guy that was good to me at the Players Championship. Uh, his price has obviously been slashed.
41:53
So you're gonna see some of these folks that have the, uh, the numbers that they've been betting for the last several months. So you're gonna see, like, 40 to 1, somebody has on Cameron Young.
42:02
That's obviously not available in the market. So if you're just looking to this week, that is one I played. Uh, Matt Fitzpatrick, who was good to Kelly at the Valspar, is gonna make my card.
42:12
So I'm gonna have probably what ends up being around close to seven or eight outright, just 'cause I have a couple that were in pocket at numbers that aren't available now.
42:22
But probably over the next day or so, that's where I'm gonna get into, like, low debutant or the low nationality markets- Mm-hmm... uh, once those become a little bit more widely available.
42:33
Debutante favorite will be who again? Should be- Chris Gotterup. I- Yeah. Yeah. Should be Gotterup. I'll probably be betting it no matter what. High on. Just, just 'cause you love him. I'm high on Gotterup.
42:42
E- e- even for, for this event. Gotterup.
42:44
This is, this is one even, I even took an outright bet on him a couple months ago, uh, for the Masters, which, uh, you know, never been done by a guy who's teed it up for the first time. Hey, Wes, real quick.
42:53
The, I think this is gonna be the most fascinating thing over the next couple days. We see it, Scheffler, Rahm, DeChambeau, McIlroy, Oberg, Schauffele. Is that the order you would have the top of the board in right now?
43:05
Uh, I don't know if I would necessarily.
43:08
I, I might put Oberg down there a couple spots, even though he was certainly in the mix at the, uh, at the Valero over the weekend, and likely should have been the guy that won the Players, and then just kind of gave it away.
43:18
But there is some concern, Kelly, I think, with, with the back nine, when his driver just kind of goes away from him I think there's some real concern. So I don't know if I would have- Yeah...
43:28
Oberg necessarily above Schauffele or above Cameron Young. Morikawa has obviously been the drifter.
43:34
He's gonna be the interesting guy in the betting market this week, because obviously he's got the game and he's been playing well, but how is that back injury?
43:43
And that is why you're now seeing where you gotta gamble a little bit. You're going on a hunch with Morikawa, because he can obviously play well here, and has done so in the past. 33 to 1 on Collin Morikawa.
43:54
I did not think that we would be getting those prices. But that injury factor is definitely real with him dropping out of the Valero last week. Mm-hmm. All right, speed round, three questions.
44:02
One, uh, is Scottie Scheffler priced too low? What should he be priced at, if so? Uh, I think it's relatively fair. Maybe you could make an argument that he could be six to one. Uh, he's not played poorly.
44:17
Like, we kind of think because of the standard that he set last year that he's played so poorly.
44:23
He really hasn't, just the approach numbers haven't been, like, off the charts historically good like they've been this year.
44:29
But, uh, uh, he does now have a second child, so does he have that little nappy factor, uh, uh- [laughs] That's right... there at Augusta. Remem- remember that happened two years ago, by the way. Yeah.
44:38
Where they just had their first child, Bennett, and then he won the darn thing. So I'm not worried about his preparation or his frame of mind at all. So I think probably 550 is fair.
44:46
To the person who says, "Hey, Rory's got the monkey off his back. He got the Career Slam. He won the Masters last year.
44:54
Boy, he, he could play free and fancy free," whatever the expression is, why shouldn't I bet Rory to go back-to-back? You would say? Well, he, he's dealing with, uh, his own back issue, uh, right now.
45:06
Of course, he pulled out of the, uh, API, and then really wasn't a, a factor in the Players. And then we haven't had anybody successfully defend the Masters title since Tiger did it in 2002. So that just doesn't happen.
45:19
Like, remember we saw Rahm after the year he won. He finished, like, 45th or something, his worst finish ever. So maybe Rory can, uh, you know, buck the tradition here.
45:28
But I just think that's so hard when you're the returning champion and you're hosting the champions dinner and all that. You've gotta be in, like, great form to do that. Yeah.
45:37
Last thing, will you have any exposure to Patrick Reed in the placement market? I will, for sure. He's always there. One of the best, uh, scrambling around the green games in the whole entire game.
45:47
I will absolutely have something on Reed. Wes, can't wait to hear Long Shots. Appreciate the time, man. Thank you so much. You bet, guys. Thank you. Wes Reynolds, everybody. Wes Reynolds1 on Twitter.
45:58
We'll come back, baseball, country club on the way.
A Numbers Game
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