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Aug 11, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 11, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 11, 2026
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Transcript
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1:00
This, uh, next gentleman is big on playing the Circa contests. Uh, he's also big on putting out what I love, uh, every year.
1:08
I was talking about it earlier how, you know, we have a decent NFL preview guide here at the network. Our buddy Aaron Schatz has done one for many years. Warren Sharp has done one for many years.
1:19
But, uh, this gentleman is, is developing a tradition of doing this as well. It's been a handful of years now.
1:24
It's our buddy Cleve TA on Twitter, C-L-E-V-T-A, uh, known throughout the football betting community, and he's got his new free, free 2026 NFL preview guide out at cleveanalytics.com. TA, what's happening, man?
1:42
What's going on, guys? We were rehashing, uh, the Bet Bash week last week, and you kind of hear it in my voice.
1:47
I'm still, uh, still recovering, but it was a, it was a really fun time, and got some really good compliments on the guide.
1:53
So it was, it was really, really nice to see and, and I appreciate it from, uh, from everyone who, uh, stopped and, and talked to me last week.
2:00
Well, I, I was telling you off air, I got more than a few folks who texted me. They were thrilled to meet you. Um, so that, that alone, right? Mm-hmm. People were like, like, 'cause they'd never seen you before, right?
2:10
So they were, they were happy to see you, and they're i- influenced by your work. How much are you enjoying, I think I've asked some version of this in the past, doing the guide itself?
2:19
Because I think you, you would, you would answer, "Well, you know, it's part of my process anyway, so might as well, aw shucks, put out a guide." But it seems like you're really enjoying this more and more every year.
2:30
I don't know if enjoy is the right word- [laughs]... because it's a, it's a, it's a labor, labor of work in the summertime. I've got two young kids now, and you know, you got a lot of their activities to, to attend.
2:40
So I've been pushing it off later and later in the summer. It used to be I would release it around 4th of July. Now it's, you know, I think this year it was late July.
2:48
So, uh, it just, it's getting harder and, you know, I've added more things to it.
2:53
I've, you know, instead of one-page, uh, team previews, I've added kind of a second kind of cover, you know, page with, with some more data and, and charts and, and numbers and things like that to, to spruce things up.
3:05
But, uh, but yeah, I don't... The, the actual process itself gets a little, you know, can wear on me, but it does help for my process.
3:11
And again, just hearing, you know, everyone, uh, with the compliments and, and, and how much it, it helps them and, and things they can get out of it, I, I, it does make you feel good.
3:19
And so that's the satisfaction I get personally from it. So, um, yeah, the, the, kind of the output is where I get, uh, I get that satisfaction.
3:27
Well, we're gonna talk about some of your picks, both, uh, team futures and some awards here coming up.
3:33
Uh, but I wanna talk about one of those things that you have going on on the site, which is your survivor optimizer, which I, I know you, I think you started to dabble in this in a previ- in previous years, or at least last year I remember you did so.
3:47
But now it's all tricked out. You can actually toggle to the rules of varying contests, right? Including Circa, which we just talked about moments ago. Yeah.
3:59
So I had a, kind of a basic version last year which would, you know, just helps...
4:03
Obviously, we know survivor is a combination of, you know, pure math when it comes to, you know, uh, uh, pa- you know, op- optimal path and all those sorts of things you have to plan out for the full year.
4:14
And, you know, you don't wanna get stuck without, um, certain teams available during the holiday weeks and just towards the end of the year, especially with this many survivors, uh, you know, in the contest.
4:24
So, um, you know, I've, I've kind of advanced things a little bit more. I've added...
4:29
Yeah, you can, you can either, if you're in Circa survivor with their sp- you know, specific rules with the holiday weeks, you got that.
4:36
You can drop down to the new, you know, Splash sports survivor, uh, rules, which have, what, eight double weeks- Yeah... that you have to choose from, and they're like random weeks. Mm.
4:45
Like weeks three, six, nine, and then I guess 12 through 16. So, um, you know, I've got that a- The fact that they make you do week three is so cruel. Right? [laughs] Double on week three. I know. Yeah.
4:57
And, and then also just if you're in, like, an old school standard 18-week pool, just kind of pick one team a week, I've got that option as well. So, you know, that, that is in there.
5:05
And then just, uh, just added a handful of features that I think is interesting that I l- you know, I wanted to use and, and, and look for. Things like, you know, you can, you can start from different weeks.
5:16
So if you're, uh, in a contest that, you know, a second chance pool, for example, you can start, you know, mid, mid-season. You can, you can pick a week there.
5:25
And then also, like, I know people wanted to see, like I wanna... I know specific weeks that I know for sure I'm going to pick a team, or I think I'm gonna pick a team.
5:34
You can lock those teams in for those specific weeks- Oh... and then rerun- So cool... the, the path to see what it looks like.
5:41
So, and then I, the final thing I have that I think is really, I don't, I don't think I've seen anywhere else.
5:45
Now, this is a little bit more detailed, but obviously understanding where the rest of the pool is going to be on certain weeks. So essentially the pub- I call it the public- Yes... uh, pick percentage.
5:55
Um, you know, you can cr- you can insert your own percentage for any game of any week and see how that affects the, the algorithm, uh, and the path.
6:05
Because obviously the more You know, uh, uh, saturated, uh, a certain pick is a certain week, and you can use, you know, public pick information that's out there, uh, aggregate that, or just insert your own and just see if that changes the path, uh, going forward.
6:20
You can do that as well. So a bunch of different things I have. And then I just qu- you know, the, the qualitative, uh, aspect of, you know, just kind of talking through the different options.
6:30
I, I have that, uh, and I've had that for a number of years. So that's all on there.
6:34
And like I said, it's not, you know, a lot of people have this information, and, uh, uh, you know, it's a little bit more art than science, uh, to some, some s- uh, re- uh, respects, but, you know, at least understanding the path, I think you've got a tool in your back pocket, and that's what I try to provide.
6:49
Super cool. Yeah, I love the, I love the be able to lock in a team for a certain week down the road. Yeah. Like, that's great because it, so many times we're writing notes off to the side with that stuff.
6:58
And then, yeah, the percentages, Cleve. I think that's a, it's a great bonus. And for anybody playing in these contests, yeah, definitely go check that out. It's simple, easy to use, free to use. Go check it out.
7:07
And just, well, uh, is it, is it free to use? I want to clarify that. Oh, that's the subscriber reaction there. The, yeah, the guide is free, but the- Like, Kelly's giving away for free. Goodness. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah.
7:16
Spending other, someone else's money. [laughs] Um, so yeah, no, no, the Survivor Optimizer is behind a paywall. Yes, yes. Yes? The preview is free, yeah. Yeah.
7:24
The, the optimizer, so I have, I have, uh, uh, the survivor tool with the analysis along with, um, you know, just my, if, if you're in, in a ATS pick pool, I, I pick all s- all games every week, uh, with kind of the Circa Millions frozen lines, um, for the people that, that wanna participate.
7:39
So that, that's on the, uh, on the site as well. That's, um, that's one of the options. So- Okay... that, that's up there. It's fantastic. All right.
7:46
Let's get to, uh, I mean, we'll, we'll get a bunch more after the break here 'cause you're, you're kind enough to stay with us for two. But let's just start with the basic. Who you got in the Super Bowl this year?
7:55
[laughs] So I've got, uh, the Rams over the Texans, which, man, when I was putting this preview together, and I, I put some nuggets out there, um, you know, during the process that I did like Houston more than the market.
8:08
Uh, and then a- as I release it, you know, we get Aaron Schatz has Houston. Uh, and we've, there's others who have talked about Houston as kind of the, quote, kind of sexy AFC team.
8:18
So I'm a little bit, uh, taken aback that so many are on them, and maybe see the same qualities that I do.
8:24
But, um, but yeah, I still think it's just such a flawed AFC, you know, between Mahomes', uh, injury and just so much defensive turnover on that roster.
8:32
And then I, I think Buffalo, outside of Josh Allen, I think the roster is really, you know, mediocre. Um, just a ton of new starters on defense. Uh, and then Baltimore, obviously new coaching staff.
8:44
Lamar, you know, who knows if last year was an aberration, but, um, he's slowing down. I just think there's a lot of holes in the AFC. And, you know, the one thing I know for sure is the Houston defense is elite.
8:54
Uh, and they are going to be elite again, and they play a very manageable schedule.
9:00
And, you know, adding David Montgomery on offense, getting, uh, you know, potentially Tank Dell back, I think really adds to this offense. They can be at least above average. Uh, I think they've got a shot to get theirs.
9:11
And then the, you know, NFC, the Rams are kind of the clear and obvious choice. I ha- initially had San Francisco.
9:16
I actually have San Francisco winning the division and the Rams coming in second, but then the Rams making the Super Bowl, so a little bit of a quirk there.
9:23
Um, I, I just think at the end of the day, like, it'll take some time to gel.
9:28
I think the front part of the Rams' schedule is really brutal, especially from a travel perspective, and for an older team, you know, could cause some problems.
9:36
So I can see them having a little bit of a hiccup early and then hitting their stride late, getting into the playoffs, and then making, making a run with the best roster in the NFL.
9:43
So, uh, I do have the Rams there, uh, from the NFC. Yeah, we were talking yesterday extensively about, uh, how they're choosing to travel to Australia, trying to just minimize jet lag by getting there late.
9:54
We'll see if that, uh, works out. One thing before the break here. We have a minute.
9:57
You, you, you casually threw in a little nugget there about Buffalo, and you had a, you had a section in your guide, which teams that made the playoffs last year do you expect to miss the sea- uh, to miss it this season?
10:08
And you said the Panthers and Steelers, and I think a lot of people hearing that would be, like, nodding their heads. "Okay, I could see both of those teams."
10:13
But as you continued, you did get to the Buffalo, and I think your sentence was, "I wouldn't be that shocked if they missed it." Yeah. I mean, I just think the roster is, is pretty poor, uh, uh, around Josh Allen.
10:25
They've got, I mean, D.J. Moore is kind of the big upgrade. He was a shell of himself last year. You know, he'll help, but, like, that's still a weak wide receiver corps.
10:34
Um, you know, you've got Joe Brady obviously taking over for Sean McDermott. Uh, defensively, you got Jim Leonard as a new DC.
10:40
I mean, they, no, no team had more turnover on defense from a snap pers- uh, percentage perspective than the Bills, and they didn't really add anybody that I would call, you know, say is a, a needle mover.
10:51
So they're really relying on a lot of young guys having to step up, especially in the secondary. So I'm dubious that they fix any of their, especially in the run, run defense perspective.
10:59
I think the defense will be, you know, you're gonna need a lot of work from, from Jim Leonard- Okay... to, to upgrade the defense. And then schedule-wise, I mean, it went from a top 10 easiest schedule last year.
11:08
Hang, hang, hang tight, Cleve. I'm looking at his schedule, and it's- Hold that thought. We're coming back. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real.
11:16
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11:26
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11:35
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
Back on the numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
11:53
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin in the house, and, uh, Cleve TA kind enough to join us for a, uh, second segment where he's rudely interrupted by commercials. My God. That's right. This is not allowed.
12:04
Biggest takeaway from that first segment though, Gil, is that Josh Allen is the most valuable player in the history of football. I was gonna ask you how you took that news. Yes.
12:13
Cleve, by the way, with his free 2026 NFL preview guide available at Cleve Analytics. That's C-L-E-V Analytics. Yes, he's from Cleveland, or he lives in Cleveland. cleveanalytics.um,.com.
12:27
And, uh, continue, by the way, finish your, your Bills thought if you would. I know you were... said something about schedule there at the end. Yeah, yeah.
12:34
So o- outside of the roster, just that, you know, they went from one of the 10 easiest schedules last year to, to one where 11 of the 17 teams they're, they're playing this year are favored to make the playoffs.
12:44
If you look at, they've got two really brutal stretches. So the first five weeks you got at Houston, Detroit, Chargers, New England, and the Rams. That's- that's a brutal way to start the season.
12:55
You get a little bit of a reprieve, but then from weeks 10 to 16, you've got the, um, one of the, the worst kind of rest situations in the entire NFL.
13:06
Um, I think 46 total rest days in seven weeks, which is the single toughest, um, stretch when you also consider who they're playing in that stretch. It's a bunch of playoff teams as well.
13:16
So, I mean, they literally go from, like, a Sunday night to a, a Saturday, and then there's a Christmas game. Like, all different days of the week. It's a really, really tough s- s- tough stretch.
13:25
So, you know, I, I just think it's a, it's a tough schedule to navigate. Obviously, they have the new home field, so that, you know, I don't know how that's gonna play out.
13:33
But, uh, I just think, you know, I know it, it's, it's tough to say outside of, you know, the best quarterback probably in the NFL in Josh Allen, uh, things are not great for this team.
13:43
Uh, but, uh, he does so much to raise that floor that I... You know, if they don't make the playoffs, it wouldn't stun me, but also he's like Superman at this point.
13:52
So he's probably gonna carry them, uh, on his back and, you know, win their typical 11, 12 games and, and make the playoffs, but- It's like-... it shouldn't be an easy stretch.
14:00
By the way, biggest takeaway from the first segment, Kelly, was that you tried to give away the survivor tool for free. That's right, yes. Yeah, yeah. That, that was the biggest takeaway. Quality promotion from Kelly.
14:08
I don't wanna, I don't wanna give away everything that you have in the guide, but one more team question because you, you go through a bunch of stuff. You do, you know, based on...
14:18
You look at headlines and current market win totals, which teams are you higher on than the market, which teams are you lower on than the market. That's all in the guide.
14:24
Just one last team question, which is you, you always mention, since 2008, talking about betting lines here, at least one team has made the playoffs each season with a pre-flop, pre-flop number of plus 280 or longer.
14:38
If I recall correctly, last year that was the Tennessee Titans. Who would be your pick this year?
14:45
Well, last year was tough to, to find, um, a sleeper, and actually I think, uh, you know, this year I, I even write about it. I pick the Titans again. [laughs] And it's only because honestly the options are so limited.
14:57
Yes. I, I was talking to somebody, uh, last week- It's flat... at Bet Bash about how- Yeah... I think what's going on is Miami and the Cardinals are sucking out.
15:07
Like, they're lo- they're such long shots with their strength of schedule and how poor their, their rosters are.
15:12
They're such long shots to make the playoffs that they're flattening the odds a lot more towards the middle.
15:19
So normally you get a team like, you know, the Vikings or, you know, teams that are y- might normally be a little longer shots. Those, those are, those teams are barely, you know, um, favored to miss the playoffs.
15:30
Like, you've gotten a lot...
15:32
And even with the Seattle and New England last year at seven and a half and eight and a half, you know, uh, wins expected and, and them making the Super Bowl, I think a lot of people are starting to find those, you know, those New Orleans Saints of the world.
15:44
Like, the teams that, um, normally would much be longer shots are closer to, you know, even odds than you would expect. So to me, it, I tr- I pick the Titans again. Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment.
15:57
Again, not that I expect it to happen. I actually am not predicting it, but if I had to pick one of these longer shots, I went with them.
16:03
Just, you know, you get Brian Daboll in there to help Cam Ward maybe get the one-year bump. Um, they add Wan'Dale Robinson, Carnell Tate on offense, you know, real weapons.
16:12
And defensively, Robert Saleh, we know he may not be a great head coach, but we know he can coach defense. Um, you know, they, they might have enough defensively to, to main things, maintain things.
16:22
And then, you know, the schedule went from the single toughest last year, one that should be much easier, uh, you would expect this year with a last place schedule.
16:30
So I pick the Titans, but I don't feel confident this year. I usually have a, a strong sleeper, um, and I don't feel confident.
16:36
I do think the Jets are gonna be really scrappy, and if you wanna ask me what was the single most surprising kind of team chapter, it was the Jets.
16:44
You can read all about that, but there's so many interesting factors for them. Uh, I think they'll be better.
16:49
I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but, you know, that is one if you really wanna go deep, uh, amongst the really bad teams, that one would be the team that I think, uh, has some level of a, um, of a chance to be scrappy at least.
17:02
Every week that goes by I'm getting higher and higher on the Jets, and it's, uh, it's, it's not a good feeling. It's not a good feeling. Yeah.
17:07
And by the way, it was terrible of me, I highlighted the Titan, that he picked the Titans last year, but you had a lot of great calls last year and in previous years too.
17:14
Uh, LFC Title Records asks on Twitter, "Can we get Cleve's opinion on the Browns win total of five and a half?" Uh, he says he's pounding the under. What do you think about the Browns?
17:26
Yeah, it's, uh, I think the number's right on. I have them right around six wins. I think that the talent, um, you know, they've really upgraded from, from the draft the last two years.
17:34
They've got really good talent, and it sounds like by all accounts that their two young wide receivers, Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion, are, are playing really well.
17:42
Like, they're legit starters in this league, uh, along with Harold Fanin. You've got, you know, you've got makings of a solid offense.
17:48
Obviously the quarterback situation is, uh, the big, uh, question mark, and Deshaun Watson is favored, uh, from all accounts. Sounds like he's going to be starting. So who knows how that goes?
18:00
But, uh, I just, I think the talent is, is just upgraded. The defense obviously takes a hit without Myles Garrett, but they still have...
18:06
You know, Jared Verse is not a, you know, he, he's, he's not Myles Garrett, but he's still one of the top call it 12 to 15 pass rushers in this league.
18:15
So I think they've got enough defensively to, to keep them in games, and I- You know, I, I think the schedule should be fairly, um, soft. So I don't know.
18:26
Uh, this is a team that i- you know, is really banking on next year being, uh, where they get their quarterback of the future, two first round picks.
18:33
So, you know, you, you kind of bump into that thing where how much are they really gonna wanna win at the end of the year? Are they gonna sit some of these, some of their starters late?
18:41
That causes some issues with the win total. So, um, you know, I'm right on the number. I don't think there's really much value either way.
18:47
I think they're better than most, um, consider, um, after the Miles Garrett trade, but I, I wouldn't... I, I think their window is pretty narrow.
18:57
I think five to seven is really, like, uh, there, there's not a lot of volatility, uh, either way because of, uh, the talent, but then also bumping into, you know, expectations for the team going forward.
19:09
Uh, let's talk some awards. I noticed you did every award. I noticed you, [laughs] you did not do Comeback Player of the Year, I don't believe, in the guide. I don't think you wanna be part of that. Is that true?
19:17
I did not. Yeah. I don't wanna dabble in that market, to be honest. Yeah. It's, it's really tough. Uh, let's talk about a couple. Let's do MVP first. You have Drake May as your number one choice.
19:29
Yeah, I'm actually surprised his number is, is as low as it is, um, double digits. He's behind, like, Justin Herbert, which I don't understand at all.
19:36
Like, I, I get that Mike McDaniel, um, is a big upgrade, but, like, that's still a big leap. Drake May should've won the MVP last year.
19:43
Anyone, uh, I think, that pays attention to the numbers, and look at the surrounding talent he had versus what, uh, Stafford had, uh, with, between coaching and, and Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, et cetera, I think Drake May did way more with, with, uh, much less.
19:57
So to get him at double digits, I think, uh, is, is a nice bargain.
20:01
You know, and we've gone through all the, I know you've talked about all the different, uh, profile of winners, um, you can, you can see, uh, on, on the, uh, in the preview, and obviously on your show we've talked about a number of times.
20:11
He, he checks all those boxes, and I think it's pretty interesting that, you know, lately it hasn't been any of the teams with the, the biggest win totals or the, the teams with the highest expectations to ma- to, to win the Super Bowl that have won MVP.
20:25
It's, like, kind of that second tier of quarterbacks that are winning. It's, like, outside of the top five when it comes to playoff odds. It's, it's interesting.
20:33
It's like you've got to be good, but not kind of the, uh, elite expected team, um, to win it all. Those are the...
20:40
That's where the, kind of the, the, the bucket of quarterbacks have won the most recently from, from MVP, and he's kind of sticks out, uh, in that as well.
20:48
So I think Drake May is, um, I think he's a really good quarterback. You add A.J.
20:51
Brown, Romeo Doubs, an improved offensive line, I think he's gonna put up big numbers again, and I think he's, um, he's my favorite at this number. At this number, and you also mentioned Brock Purdy at his number.
21:02
So Drake May, 10 to one, Brock Purdy, 18 to one, uh, your best bets for that. Let's do one more. We have 60 seconds here. Coach of the Year I thought was pretty interesting. Who'd you end up with there?
21:13
So I took Brian Schottenheimer.
21:14
Doesn't totally fit the, the historical narrative, um, of kind of the, a really bad team that, uh, improves or jumps up a bunch of wins, but I mean, they were seven and nine last year, Dallas.
21:23
Look, if this team gets to 11, 12 wins, it doesn't take much for the media to over-hype a, a Dallas c- head coach. And I actually was impressed with what Schottenheimer put together last year.
21:33
I thought he did a nice job with that offense. Um, you know, improving on the defense, uh, through the draft, uh, and obviously adding Rashan Gary as well.
21:40
You know, this doesn't have to be a great defense for them to improve four or five wins. So I think at this number it's interesting.
21:46
I also had Kyle Shanahan [laughs] as a long shot, which again, doesn't fit the historical narrative, but because of his car accident and maybe he gets that narrative if they win the NFC West- Oh, interesting...
21:56
um, at a long shot could be worth a look. So those are two that I like. Unless Tony Farmer puts him in jail beforehand, then that's a pretty... No, that's another thing. [laughs] That's a whole nother thing.
22:04
Cleve, I'm sorry I missed you last week, my man. Thank you so much for the time. It's Cleve T.A., cleveanalytics.com. That's C-L-E-V-E analytics.com is where you can access his Pro Football Preview Guide.
22:15
On Twitter, of course, it's Cleve T.A., C-L-E-V-E-T-A. Thank you so much, man, and we'll get you on the Megapod this year again. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. My man, Cleve T.A., the best in the biz- Oh...
22:26
on the football side of things. So good. Mark Borchert, baseball next. You know who, uh, does baseball lovingly?
22:31
This guy, Mark Borchert, a base winner, who's on the road today just outside of Whitefish, Montana, joining us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Mark, thanks for the effort, man. Appreciate it.
22:43
Gil, I wouldn't miss it for the world. Actually, I would if I was driving with two dogs for 20 hours last week. [laughs] Oh, man. But, uh, glad to, glad to have you back. And I, you know what?
22:52
I haven't been able to congratulate you on your month long with Boston. Thank you, sir. What, that's gotta be a play of a lifetime.
22:59
I was telling Kelly, I think you probably have, like, 20 years of monthly betting before, you know, the break even hits at 80 to 1. I, I don't know, maybe the math's wrong on that, Gil. No, it's probably true. Yeah.
23:09
That's why, that's why I said, like, the, the guy who, uh, tweeted after the first day, "The Red Sox lost the first day of July by eight runs," and he sarcastically was like, "Yeah, Gil's monthly play off to a blazing start."
23:18
[laughs] And I was like, "That dude," I was like, "You c- you should take a break for 80 months now, because there's nothing you could say." Yeah, no, I appreciate it.
23:25
It, it was a, it just worked out as perfectly as you would want all of your bets to ever work out. We'll see if we can't do it with Detroit again here in August. Have you done your, uh, August simulations at all?
23:36
Yeah, man, and you know, I've, I've, I've really kind of [laughs] delved into it. You can go to my site.
23:41
You can read the division odds, not only the division odds, but the, um, or the, or the, or the regular, the whole odds. B- but DraftKings doing division, by division odds the month of August. Yes. Yes.
23:52
And I, that's so intriguing, and I have all these, these odds, uh, processed, and, and I, I updated it today, so I'm probably gonna put a, a, a, a post up there about the division odds.
24:02
But if you're looking at, like, the overall odds, I know you have Detroit, and, uh, I've got Philly. So, so I'm looking at Philly right now, plus 800. I've got them plus 336, and I, so there's still value. Hmm.
24:14
And, uh, that's the team. I mean, it, it really, like, changes your whole perspective. I, I love this. Yes.
24:20
I'm so happy they did this because it gives you, what, I guess there's six months in the baseball season, last I checked, and, uh, it gives you six shots at it, and it's really, really fun. And it's fun to handicap, too.
24:31
So I- So check out my site. I think I'm gonna probably have a, a division odds update, and I'll, maybe I'll do the league, uh, the, the overall odds as well today, Gil. I cannot r- I, I wanna echo what you just said.
24:42
The, the monthly markets, yes, we've won a couple now, including the big one last month.
24:47
But the monthly markets have allowed me, and this speaks to you, you, you and I have been following baseball and handicapping baseball since the dawn of time.
24:57
And after years and years and years of doing that, you are a human being. You're going to run into a wa- the game changes for me. I stopped doing daily baseball.
25:06
And it's tough then to sort of process a 162-game schedule. This was the perfect tonic for that.
25:13
It immediately broke up the season so perfectly into ways that I could not only digest it and learn, but also love it again in a different way. Not that I fell out of love with it, but it rekindled the love for it.
25:26
So I just, I can't recommend it more, even beyond betting, what, what the monthly perspective does. What did you, uh, what did you land on today?
25:35
Well, today I'm gonna, uh, talk about this Toronto team, because I think that they're showing value in the, the, uh, futures markets as well. Uh, but today I really like 'em.
25:46
I, I've got 'em, uh, it's an interesting play for me. I've got 'em on a run line, minus one and a half, plus 147, but I also have the under seven.
25:54
And, uh, if you're looking at, uh, at Dylan Cease, I, I think that he's gotta be the front runner, Gil, at least, uh, by my numbers to, to win, uh, the AL Cy Young.
26:05
And then, you know, they, they really, still their, their lineup is, is, is not great. They got rid of a couple pieces, but they're like 15th in baseball. And then the bullpen I have for Toronto, sixth in baseball.
26:16
So I, I wanna just check real fast because I, I'm, I'm, I'm flipping around here, Gil, on my laptop, and it's a little bit different for me.
26:22
But I have 'em, uh, 20% to make the playoffs, so plus 382, and I think that they're at DraftKings at plus 550.
26:30
So I think that that's a pretty, uh, good opportunity to get an underdog, uh, with a, with a decent chance, a 20% chance at plus 550. And, you know, you look at, and they picked up Soriano, which was a weird trade.
26:42
I don't know what you, what your thoughts were about that trade. It was a weird trade. They, uh, they, they ended up upgrading. Yeah. So I think you got a good one-two, Dylan Cease. Your Savage is good.
26:50
And, and, uh, you know, you've got three pitchers that are, that are, uh, quality pitchers there. And so I think that's a pretty good futures play as well. Plus 550 to make the playoffs on the Toronto Blue Jays.
27:01
It's interesting, a lot of these teams, I, I... By the way, Soriano was this early season- Mm-hmm... Cy Young play for a lot of people, and I pointed out at the time, like, "His ni- he has a 95% strand rate.
27:12
Like, this is not gonna last." Uh, and it didn't. But yeah, that's a, it's definitely an upgrade for them. Um, but I think, like, even Detroit, right?
27:18
With w- it's, they, they trade Skubal, they trade Mize, and everyone just assumes again, like, "Well, they're giving up." No, no, no, no. It's like sneaky. They get Jobe back from an injury.
27:29
He was hitting triple digits on the, on the gun the other day. Um, Melton, while being very fortunate, has pitched great for the Tigers, and obviously Valdez, if you ever get Framber to do his thing.
27:41
So it's like these, these teams under the radar, like, there's always a way that it breaks completely well for you and breaks completely poorly in that spectrum.
27:48
And so if it breaks well for any of these teams, it could go very well, to your point about the Blue Jays. No, no parlay of the day from Base Winner? Is, are we deprived of that? Like, you know what?
27:57
I'm gonna go with the, I'll give you, I'll give you the parlay, 'cause, 'cause it's just, it's your first day back after- Thank you [laughs]... what seems like, uh, months off, Gil. Like, you know. Months.
28:05
Yeah, I'm gonna go with, uh, with Aris- [laughs] I'm gonna go with Arizona Dodgers. And, uh, it's, it's basically a little bit better than even money.
28:12
But, uh, I'm looking at Arizona today and, and, uh, they've got a guy, you're gonna love this one, Mitch Bratt, Gil. Oh, yeah. And every time I look at this guy, I'm thinking Funkdafied, DeBratt, 1994. DeBratt.
28:26
What do you know about that, Kelly? Nothing.
28:27
And, and I, and I, and I thought, you know, I thought Dustin was gonna be on the show today, and I thought, well, you know, I wish Gil was on the show 'cause maybe you had DeBratt in the studio. I did. 1994, Funkdafied.
28:36
I did. I met DeBratt, yeah. I bet. Oh, and, and so that song, so I listened to the song a little bit today. It's a great song. Really good.
28:44
I, I don't know, Big Poppa, and they use the same Isley Brothers', uh, you know, sample. I, I think DeBratt might be a little bit better. But you're looking at DeBratt, he's a lot better pitcher today.
28:53
[laughs] You're looking at Mitch Bratt today. [laughs] A lot better pitcher. I've got the game priced at minus 201. And then, and then Snell makes his return. I've got the Dodgers heavy favorite.
29:02
Even, mine, they're minus 265 in the market. I think it should be over minus 300. So put 'em together in a parlay. Uh, it's plus 120, Gil. There you go.
29:11
You have Mark Borchardt with a Funkdafied DeBratt reference on the show today? I did not, Gil, but I'm never gonna rule Mark Borchardt out from, uh, making a solid, uh, music reference, okay?
29:19
We- Wes Reynolds, the ball is in your court. Now- This is, it's a battle... I wanna let you know, if I was in my studio, I could probably rap something about this parlay to the DeBratt. Yeah.
29:28
And that would be really epic. But, but I'm, you know, since I'm on the road, I, I figured I'd, I'd, you know, the degree of difficulty would be tough on that, Gil. I love it. Yeah, you're on vacation.
29:36
Take it easy, Mark. You're right. By the way, Funkdafied still stands the test of time. Sounds good.
29:40
By the way, about the Diamondbacks, um, not a, not a person who usually puts out great tweets, but he has a, he has a point on this one.
29:47
Um, Felika just texted me this, and Will, which is, oh, a- and the group chat with Fez and, uh, Todd also, Bob Nightingale.
29:54
The Diamondbacks, your Diamondbacks who you just mentioned in your parlay, battling for a wildcard berth, are 14 and three this season against the Rockies and the Giants, so they're feasting on the bad.
30:04
They also still have nine games remaining against the Rockies and the Giants, um, who are a combined 48 games below 500. Advantage Diamondbacks. Do you like them as a playoff bet?
30:17
I don't, which is really weird, because I've be- I've been so high on them- Yes, you have... to make the playoffs, Gil.
30:21
But, but if you're looking at, at, uh, a playoff percentage for me, it's 35% plus 182, and I, so I think that the, the market value is actually the other way to bet the no.
30:32
But one of the things I did touch upon was Lovullo, and if you remember the, the show that we did, uh, uh For, for Vsin, I, Lavello was my manager of the year at 22 to 1, and if he can do it with this component, you know, they, they're starting pitching's like 25th to me.
30:47
Uh, the offense is decent, but 10th to 12th, and so he's been doing it with smoke and mirrors, and I think Lavello is, has been really under- undervalued there. Uh, for, for me, he should be the, the manager of the year.
30:58
But to make the playoffs, I, I'm not showing value on him, Gil. Dodgers still winning this whole thing once the playoffs start? I, y- I think that they will.
31:08
Um, you know, I, I think that when I did the simulations yesterday, the Yankees actually showed really good value winning the American League. Hmm.
31:18
And if you look at their pitching, you talk about a, a top three boom, boom, boom, and you've got that. So I think that, that, that one...
31:26
And, and again, that's a, that's a health thing because, you know, Bellinger with the hamstring, and you've got St- Stanton who knows, and then Judge, of course. Um- Judge... so you have, you have those health issues.
31:34
But I think if, if everything goes good for them, I think the Yankees to win that, that AL, that, that value. I- I think. I, plus 100, right, to win it. I so agree with you about the Yankees, though,
31:44
being the, the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear. It all comes down to when does Judge come back? Sooner the better, obviously, but they are stacked when fully healthy. Thank you, Mark.
31:53
Thank you for Funkified as well. Mark Borchardt, everybody. Baseball- Yeah, my pleasure... coming back on a Numbers Game.
32:02
Let's start with that with our next guest, Joe Sheehan joining us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at Joe_Sheehan. The author of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter at joesheehan.com.
32:12
He's got a bunch of picks for us. But Joe, uh, first of all, hello. Welcome to the program. Uh, I would like to- I wanna know who narced on my joke. Who, what's that? Who told you? About the tweets.
32:23
Who, who narced on me? Oh, I ca- I can't say. I cannot say. I cannot say, Joe. Um, maybe I'll tell you off air. The, uh... I have to ask you, though, that you're a baseball hardo. You love baseball. You know baseball.
32:38
Would you have known or did you know if you were watching it live? Did you understand what was going on in the moment in the strange scenario last night at Fenway? No.
32:51
And I actually stayed up all night studying and looking at the play because I have four or five, uh, media hits today, and everybody's gonna ask me about it, so I had to get to an answer.
33:03
I- i- in the end, they actually did make the right call even if it feels wrong. Yeah. And just to, I know we don't have video here, but first and third, one out, but everybody thinks it's two outs.
33:13
Fly ball, Red Sox runners run because they think it's two outs. Play made. Uh, Blue Jays double up the runner at first, but they don't make a play on the runner at third.
33:25
And basically because they left the field without appealing at third base or making a play on the runner at third base, that runner, as long as he crossed the plate before the out at first was made, as a le- legally scores.
33:38
Now, it doesn't, doesn't sound fair. The Red Sox made an egregious base, two egregious base running errors and they get the run anyway.
33:46
But by the book, the Blue Jays had to make a play on the runner at third, either directly or on appeal, for them to get that out. And because the run crossed the plate before the third out was made, the run counts.
33:59
It becomes a timing play at that point. It, it's just, it's- Yes... it's fascinating because, uh, all of us who have watched a bajillion baseball games, it sort of goes against our baseball instinct.
34:11
And then I, I guess I'm just thinking about this now, if, if you've watched this many baseball games as we all have, the fact that I don't remember ever seeing that ever before is also amazing then, right?
34:25
Like, of all the games, I've never seen that happen before.
34:28
And, uh, what I was saying to Kelly earlier, and I don't know if this he- this helped, but it helped me a little bit, is I think I would've, it would've felt more natural if it was the ball that was trapped in the outfield, then it would've felt more natural.
34:41
Like, "Oh, I get it," and you know, then, then they should've appealed, but they walked up. But, but since it was so routine, it seemed odd. I think that was part of it for me.
34:51
Had the Blue Jays, had the Blue Jays made a play at third, it would've been the fourth out of the inning, and there is a rule on the books that allows a fourth out to over, supersede what happened before, and the run would not have scored.
35:02
A fourth out play, I wanna say, happens maybe every four or five years. Hmm. You know, a couple times a decade.
35:07
Apparently, there was a similar play when John Schneider was ma- the Blue Jays manager, was managing in the minor leagues. This actually did come up in, you know, 10 years ago when he was managing in A ball.
35:17
So, you know, maybe he should've known, you know? Yeah. [laughs] But, uh, it, it is a very rare play. It is an edge case in the rule book.
35:23
And, uh, while the umpire's got it right, it's definitely one of those where you're like, "Did they really?" Yeah.
35:28
Well, it makes me feel better that you and Jensen Lewis, who precedes us on the air, played at the highest level in the majors, neither would've sort of picked up on it, like, instantaneously.
35:38
Um, Red Sox go on to lose two to one, even with that run counting. They've lost three in a row. And as Kelly said earlier, they suck three in a row. They suck. Yeah, it's true. Get it together. Get it together, Red Sox.
35:50
Um, there, by the way- Vikings... just real... S- sorry about this, Joe.
35:53
[laughs] We just did a whole thing on, uh, who's starting first quarterback, first, uh, quarterback, uh, starting quarterback first week of the season.
36:00
Adam Schefter reporting just at this moment, the Vikings have named Kyler Murray their starting quarterback, so there you go. I assume that means for the regular season. I would assume that too. Yes, I would say that.
36:08
Yeah. Okay, so there you go. Uh, let's talk baseball. Let's, let's go to your bevy of picks. Pirates are at the Marlins. Which way you going here?
36:17
And before we start, let me just make the point, Gil, these are all sides and a couple of futures. I'm not betting totals anymore, and there's been some really good research done over the last couple of weeks.
36:27
Uh, Ballpark Pal, who, uh, your guy, Steve Fezzik, has brought up on the, on the show before- Yes... looked into the performance of the baseball Coming off the bat.
36:34
This isn't drag issues, this is actually co- coefficient of restitution, how hard the ball comes off the bat, and it's definitely something that's been going on with the ball since, uh, since the break.
36:43
So I don't play totals right now. With all of the machinations with the baseball this year, I don't think totals are playable at this point.
36:49
So these are all gonna be sides, starting with Paul Skenes against the, the Marlins tonight down in Miami. There's been all this conversation about Skenes. He hasn't pitched well.
36:58
The ERA, the baseline numbers are really bad. But when you look underneath, you see that there's a two-run gap between his ERA and his FIP over the last couple of months.
37:08
The last four starts, he's given up a 444 batting average on balls in play. He's pitching fine. You look at the strikeouts, you look at the strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he's somebody I want.
37:19
If I'm getting him at minus 112, I think that's a steal. Skenes is actually just as good as he was a year ago. He's just getting crushed on balls in play, and that's mostly about the Pirates' defense and luck.
37:30
Let's go to the Yankees and the Mariners. Yankees, we talked about a little earlier with Borchard. I just feel like they are... They're, they're always the team that has reinforcements coming, right?
37:39
Whether it's starting pitching, um, whether it's, of course, the looming specter for the rest of the league of Aaron Judge. When will Aaron Judge come back is the real, the real question.
37:48
They seem like at full strength, they're still the best team in the American League, despite not helping at catcher or at relief pitcher, uh, before the trade deadline. Uh, you've got them today against the Mariners?
38:00
Yeah, it's mostly, it's mostly because of that, the starting pitching depth, just an incredible rotation. When we get to the playoffs, they'll have Carlos Rodón back as well.
38:05
You're talking about a team that goes six starters deep. They'll have Ryan Weathers going tonight against the Mariners. The Mariners are a bottom five team in baseball against left-handers.
38:14
Neither one of these teams is scoring a lot in the last k- uh, month or so. The Mariners have had issues all year. Their best hitters, Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Josh Naylor just haven't shown up this year.
38:25
Uh, the Yankees, you know, it, it's not a good lineup, but I think it's gonna be a little bit better against Brian Wu.
38:31
Wu has a large home road split this year, but like Skenes overall, it's mostly BABIP, so I wouldn't put too much on that. But we've got both of these teams coming off an off day.
38:40
I think that's an edge for the Yankees, who have the deeper bullpen. So a lot of reasons to take the Yankees. It's at a small number tonight.
38:46
A's gacked the game in a big way to the Rays last night, gave up an eight-run frame to take a four-run lead to a four-run deficit. They lose 10 to six. But they would've won on first five for bettors at plus money.
38:56
You're taking them first five today at plus money against the Rays. Yeah, they've been a little competitive for half a game, sometimes the second half, sometimes the first half.
39:05
Uh, they took two from the Red Sox over the weekend. Uh, I think that, uh, Nick Martinez has been way over his head. You look at the gap between his ERA and his underlying numbers, and that hasn't been very good.
39:15
He's somebody who has typically been fly ball prone and home, and homer prone, and that hasn't been the case this year. Put him in Sutter Health Park tonight.
39:22
I think Mason Barnett can hold down the Rays, who aren't a particularly good offensive team, um, in this park tonight.
39:28
And again, I'm getting a good plus number on a team that, you know, is facing a pitcher who's a bad fit for Sutter Health. So give me the A's at plus 140 for five innings. Just hold on.
39:36
And Brewers over the Padres at Petco tonight. Yeah, they lost a tough one last night because they basically had no bullpen available.
39:43
They let Logan Henderson pitch into the seventh, which is not, you know, that's an off-label use of, of Logan Henderson. He gave up the lead in the seventh. Tonight they get a fresh bullpen back.
39:53
We'll see maybe Abner Yribarren isn't available, but everybody else will. You've got a better starting matchup with C- Kyle Harrison going against Walker Buehler.
40:00
So I think the Brewers could win this one from the front with Harrison out-pitching Buehler, and I think it w- win, they can win this one the back with a good bullpen performance. So give me the Brewers tonight.
40:09
All right. Make me smile with your futures. What do you got here, Joe?
40:13
Listen, I keep thinking about our buddy Paul Sporer, who was on here about a month ago talking about how not only would the Tigers win the division, they would win it going away. And I kind of laughed at the time.
40:23
I was gonna reach out to him, but I let it go, and now I think he was ahead of all of us. The Tigers now plus 410 to win the division, plus 7,000 to win the World Series.
40:31
I think a piece of both of those makes sense because the division, look, they're still the best team in that division. And you said yesterday, you know, they would go for it. They didn't really go for it.
40:40
They traded their best two pitchers, uh, starting pitchers. But they do have some depth. Um, they're gonna get some hitters back. I, I still worry about the bullpen, but they're just chasing teams, like the White Sox.
40:49
You got the, the Guardians, the Twins in that mix. They're just better than.
40:53
But give me the Tigers to win the division at plus 410, and then if they get into the postseason, I think they got as good a chance as anyone else, and 70 to 1 is a big number.
41:00
Yeah, I distinguish it from two years ago when they traded Flaherty, then they really weren't going for it, and they made the playoffs. This year I think they still had an eye on it.
41:07
They still figured, "We can still do this even if we do the responsible thing." That was the distinction. Thank you, Joe. Appreciate it.
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