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Aug 12, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 12, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 12, 2025
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34:48
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
This is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. Why am I talking in staccato? I don't know. I don't know either.
0:20
Keep it going though. It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Heyo. Kelly Bidlin. Good show today, Kelly. Yeah, man. Looking forward to it. G- Bet Bash week is here. Bet Bash week.
0:33
Betbash.co for everybody who's interested. Uh, I think their panels all start tomorrow. I think they have other events, probably the networking thing or the speed dating thing probably happens today.
0:42
I saw, I saw Spanky directing, like, traffic basically, uh, in the, in the garage mahal. Uh, too, way too busy for me to even say hi, so I had to just walk over here. Really? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, wow.
0:54
So it's in full effect. Yep. There's some stragglers in today. Um, and we have Captain Jack in studio a little later on. So we only, we, we have one Bet Bash guest today. Tomorrow it's a cavalcade. Mm-hmm.
1:03
At least three tomorrow. Tomorrow it's Dr. Bob and Rufus Peabody and- Ed Fang... Ed Fang tomorrow. Yeah. Captain Jack today on the state of the state, the state of the sports betting industry.
1:15
We have, uh, three topics I wanna get to in the span of one segment. Big to- big picture topics we'll get to with Jack. He, of course, co-founder of Unabated, uh, which we'll discuss as well.
1:25
Drew Dincic, as always, with his Tuesday set NFL tennis, whatever he's playing today in Cincinnati. Have you been able to catch any of the Western and Southern Open? Uh, watched a little last night. Not too much though.
1:38
Not too much. Uh, AFC East preview. Kelly and I are, uh, backtracking. We're going back, right? We're gonna go back to some of these divisions.
1:43
Yeah, circling around, make sure we hit everything one more time before the season gets started. See how we feel, see if thoughts have changed.
1:49
Mark Borcher from under, uh, from an undisclosed location in the desert talking baseball with us, and a little, uh, look at the, a couple baseball things. Home run leader, m, um, MVP, Cy Young.
2:01
By the way, there's a change atop the Tango rankings. Oh, really? Oh, yeah. There you go. Like it's- Where's little tease? Tom Tango, who has, uh, correctly picked with his Cy Young tracker
2:13
his, his ultimate numbers, I should say, at the end of the regular season, 32 of the last 38 eventual Cy Young winners, based on his formula. It's a very simple formula. We have a new leader.
2:24
Y- you kind of hinted at it yesterday though. It is just amazing where, I, like where these odds moving all the time of just, uh, nothing. There's so little settled. Oh, yeah. And we are August 12th.
2:35
Like, there is so little settled. Well, there's so little settled, but on the other hand, I have maintained the whole time- With the big ones, right. Yeah, with the big ones.
2:42
With the [sighs] We'll get to it, but it's like the MVP stuff to me has never changed in my mind, and I know because we do content, not just we, but the network and everybody else who does content, that you've gotta come up with some, oh, I don't know, you know, Manny Machado, NL MVP or, or Kyle Schwarber N- NL MVP.
3:01
I, I just, I've sta- stuck, stuck by what I've said the whole time, which is if Shohei... Well, we'll get to that next segment. I'm already starting that segment now. [laughs] Anyway, uh, tennis yesterday.
3:10
Can we do tennis real quick? Yeah, for sure. Uh, yesterday, um, was one of the more interesting tennis days we've ever had. I had four plays, and the first three sucked. Is that a correct term I could use on air? Yeah.
3:24
Is that all right? Uh, they all lost, and some of them in strange fashion. The Humbert one also, Humbert was like, he was up a s- he was up a break in the first set.
3:33
He was crushing Tiafoe, and then Tiafoe just pressed the button, and that was the end of that. And then a funny thing happened.
3:38
Pick number four was the plus 319 dog on Terrence Atmane, spelled for Americans Terrence Atmane, against your boy Joao Fonseca. Straight set win. So- Joao goes down...
3:51
so it was a complete salvage of the day, um, [laughs] with the plus 319 dog hitting, and today there are four more plays, Kelly, four more plays in Cincinnati as we are about to enter the business side of the, uh, the tournament in Cincinnati.
4:06
Again, the, uh, Cincinnati hard court tournament, the Western and Southern Open, is the prelim to the United States Open, tennis' fourth and final major of the year. Now, for those who are like, "Eh, this guy always..."
4:15
You know, if you're new to the show and you're like, "This guy always has tennis picks at the, at the beginning of every show. What's his deal?" Uh, uh- Dude likes to bet tennis, bro...
4:22
dude likes to bet tennis, bro, and he also does it via the data, right? I'm not, uh, I'm not just pulling these out from you-know-where. These are all based on hard court numbers, and today as it goes- [laughs]
4:35
Oh, man... four, four large dogs. I didn't, I didn't really [laughs] look at these earlier. Yeah, this does not usually happen, but this is what happens. Again, at vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
4:44
You get this the previous night, and, uh, typically it is a CLV fest, not that that always manifests in wins, by the way. That's- There are, there are three names on here I've never heard before.
4:54
Do you want a crack at the, uh, pronunciations of everything? Yeah, sure. Can I do that? Kelly Bidlin pronounces tennis names, ladies and gentlemen. B- b- b- bum, Adam Walton. Good one. Well done. Nailed it. Money line.
5:04
Going. Plus 311 versus Jiri Lehecka. Nicely done. Jiri Lehecka, that's right. Thank you. Uh, Adam Walton, did you bet him last week? Uh, last week and a couple weeks before that too. We- Okay...
5:16
when I was on vacation, he won as a big dog in some way, yeah. Okay, so I have heard of him before, then I just forgot about it. Uh, here's l- two names in the same match- W-... I've never heard of...
5:24
Adam Walton currently at the same price, plus 311 versus Jiri Lehecka. That's the only one on the men's side. All right, and we continue on the women's side, I believe- That's correct... with Ella Seidel- Mm-hmm...
5:36
money line plus 264 versus McCartney Kessler. That's right. Ella Seidel's six-month hard court number's fantastic. McCartney Kessler. She's another one. Sounds like a f- Yeah. Sounds like a fancy one.
5:48
You think McCartney Kessler and Jensen Brooksby should date? Yes. Yes, they definitely should. To have the most gentile children ever. Ah, we, we, we gotta create the, uh- [laughs]...
5:56
we gotta create Love Island of tennis players here with, uh, with, uh- Oh, I'd watch that... with Leylah doing her whole thing. Leylah. Leylah.
6:03
C- Leylah couldn't be more, couldn't be more adorable about her dates, by the way. And she was, she, she was wide open about it like-Like she, she's told everything.
6:10
All right, we got Ashlyn Krueger, money line plus 181, big Borussia Dortmund fan, versus Jasmine Paolini. Know that one. Krueger's a little less right now, but still playable, plus 170. Okay, Lucia Bronzetti.
6:24
Yeah, I think that's right. Or Lucia? Lucia? I think Lucia is probably correct. Okay, Lucia Bronzetti. Lucia Bronzetti, yeah. Plus 235 versus Jelena Ostapenko.
6:31
Yeah, uh, Bronzetti also a little shorter than that, but still playable, plus 221. Ostapenko is not playing her best tennis.
6:37
Neither is, neither is she or Paolini, both of whom are names that some might recognize as, uh, both are former top 20 players. Did Ostapenko ever make the top 10? I'm not sure. Maybe she did when she won the French.
6:49
Um, but neither are playing their best tennis right now, and they appear vulnerable to me on hard court. So those are the four, Adam Walton on the men's side, and then Seidel, Krueger, and Bronzetti on the ladies' side.
6:59
Nice. Um- These, these were easy today. This was... I, I should have passed. Yeah. I should have passed on this one today.
7:05
[laughs] You should've, you should've waited for the Anastasia, uh- Whatever match that was I- Pavlyuchenkova one. Whatever match that was I pointed out with Zhan Zhan last week, that match was- Loi Zhan Zhan...
7:15
that was one of the more absurd ones I'd ever seen. Yeah. Um, all right. So we'll see how those go. One of those is this morning. One of those is in less than an hour. Uh, MLB August wins.
7:24
We didn't really go through this yesterday, so I just wanna... We have the Rangers. That was my play. Let me just speak for myself. I have the Rangers 30 to 1.
7:31
The Rangers had come-from-behind win against the Diamondbacks yesterday to raise their August record, you ready for this? To four and six after getting swept this weekend by the Phillies.
7:42
So the Rangers are, are, are distant. But you know what this might prove to be, Kelly? Meaningless for 29 teams. Yeah, seriously. Because it, it wouldn't matter if I take the Rangers or anybody.
7:52
The Brewers are 10 and O in August. 10 and O plus 43 is their run differential in case you needed tiebreakers later. They're crushing in that too, and they've got the most, or a tie for the most games left with 20.
8:06
So you, we knew coming in they had the most games that they were playing, right?
8:10
Um, the interesting thing is when you go into the current odds, by the way, do- currently, the Mariners are second at eight and one, and I mentioned this yesterday briefly.
8:18
If you, if you have a Mariners ticket, we had Mariners in July. So once again, me mistiming things tremendously.
8:25
[laughs] But if we, you know, even if you have the Mariners and you're like, "Well, eight and one, only two wins behind," but you have two fewer games left. Yeah.
8:32
So it's like you're actually w- you're actually further behind. Phillies are eight and two, Guardians seven and two, and the Padres [laughs] who we had an earlier month, seven and three.
8:41
Sh- shout-out to Scott at the gym, I'll bring him up once again, who I was just on the treadmill, and he just jammed his phone, uh, phone into my face just said, "Mariners," on it.
8:48
They haven't lost since he done, he's done that. Yeah. Good. All right. You and Scott very close at the gym, by the way. Welcome to that. Yeah, we've just, we just met up once. Okay. So now you can still bet these.
8:57
This is- This is crazy... this is one thing to talk about in, in retrospect, but you can still bet these now because the DraftKings of the world keep these up, and good on them for keeping them up. Yeah.
9:05
The Brewers are only, can I say that in quotes, "only" minus 125. Now again, the Phillies, who are second here on the board at plus 270, have two fewer wins.
9:18
Um, but how many games left do the Phillies have, uh, compared to the Brewers? Brewers have 20 left, and the Phillies, uh, let me just check on that again. I believe the Phillies have 19 left. Am I correct in that?
9:28
Um, they have... Yes, no, they have eight, they have 19 left, correct. So the Mariners, who are third here, have 18 games left at plus 850.
9:36
Everybody else is 30 to one or longer, which is pretty interesting because in having 20 games left, I mean, you could still- Right... stink it up. Right. It's f- I'm, I'm not saying you should be running to bet- Yeah...
9:48
a long shot, but Gil, do you remember 12 days into a month, these two things? No. Having an odds-on favorite 12 days in, and then there are three teams plus 850 or shorter, and everybody else is 30 to one or longer.
10:04
Yeah. Though, if you said to me, "All right, who would you bet now?" I'm not sure I would have the, uh, the gumption, the chutzpah, the moxie to bet any of the long shots.
10:14
The Padres are the one that s- that kind of sticks with me a little bit. They're seven and three, but they only have 18 games left too, right? Mm-hmm. So it's, uh, also I should say. So
10:24
that's the thing with the Brewers, it's not a, if you have more games, it's one thing. It doesn't necessarily y- you're gonna mean a, you're gonna win a month. Doesn't mean that.
10:32
But if you come out 10 and O and you still have more games left than anybody else, it is a major advantage the way that they're playing baseball, and it doesn't hurt that they're three and O in one-run games.
10:42
The Marin- by the way, all this comes down to the one-run games. Mariners are three and O. Excuse me. Uh, Brewers are three and O, Mariners four and O, Phillies two and O, Guardians four and one, Padres two and O.
10:52
Those are the top five teams in, in one-run games. By contrast, our Rangers, one and four after their one-run victory yesterday. What's, what's, uh- So, so, so would I take the Padres at 35 to 1?
11:04
Would I take the Mariners at plus 850? The answer is probably no. What, uh, I gotta get a, I g- I gotta make a futures play, uh- On?... for baseball. I don't know. You know, any- I'm, I'm gonna leave this open.
11:16
I'm gonna l- no, for like a World Ser- I need a World Series ticket or something. I love my Tigers-Padres matchup. So, I, okay, I was gonna ask you was like, do I- Love... I'm feeling the Padres too.
11:25
I've been feeling them for the past, like, couple years. Yeah. I mean, it's kinda burnt me, but I think I wanna get involved with some Padres somehow. 66 to 1 is what I have that matchup at.
11:34
I, I, I just feel like the post-season setting with that bullpen favors the Padres. Knocking at the door. One game back in the NL West too, by the way.
11:46
Coming back, uh, baseball awards, and we have a new leader in the Cy Young tracker next. [upbeat music] A numbers game VSiN, the sports betting network Ah, yeah.
12:02
Survivor part six tonight. Circa Survivor: The Quest for $14.2 Million, 10-part documentary series following the drama, strategy, and heartbreak inside the world's largest legal football contest.
12:15
You can catch the final five episodes starting tonight through the 16th at 9:00 PM Eastern. So episode six is tonight. Missed an episode? You can watch the first five now at vsin.com/survivor.
12:26
You know, uh, we should really remind ourselves to get our entries. I feel like we- We're fine...
12:31
I feel like we've entered the period of time where we're like, "Oh, oh, oh, I'm gonna start to get dream," like wake up from dreams like, "Oh my God, I didn't enter yet." I'm not worried about it. I'm not.
12:39
After last year.
12:40
After last year, I'm no longer worried about it, 'cause I think we always had these concerns before, but then we, we were at The D last year, and the literally signup location was four feet away from where we were broadcasting.
12:52
Yeah And, uh, we just got that right down there. I'm not worried about it. I will be within the last few days. Well, I'm not worried about it. I can guarantee you I will be within the last few days.
12:59
Now, maybe I should be more worried about it, though. What was it, two years ago?
13:03
It was two years ago, Matt Brown and I were doing contest signups on the last day and hitting a couple places in town, and by the time we arrived at Circa, they were, like, getting close to the shutdown period, and I, we ran, we walked in here, Gil, and there were lines like 40 people back.
13:23
I, I had to maybe call in a favor. Oh, yeah, that's right. And by call in a favor, I mean I yelled at Jeff Benson behind him. That's right. "Hey, Jeff, I need help. I need help." I do seem to recall that.
13:31
We got tweets, me and the book, Larry Fresh. "A women's tennis Love Island would be amazing. Can we get Delicious on that Love Island, too? How would Kelly feel if Zane Bidlin was a contestant in 2047?" Zane Bidlin.
13:44
Is that what you named your kid? I thought it was Zizu. Yeah, I thought we were going with Zizu, too. Oh, hmm. ThreeJackH3131, "I'm sorry, but how can Kelly go to Arby's and not get roast beef?
13:53
Roast beef and cheddar with honey sauce is an all-time top five sandwich. There was a time when you could get five for $5. Talk about positive EV." No.
14:01
Would you, would you like to describe the roast beef sandwich that you were doing off air at Arby's? Uh, yeah, sure. I don't, yeah, I don't really care. Heck, I think it's a great restaurant.
14:08
I still eat at it every once in a while. I just get other things. But no, just the, the roast beef that's just been like, it's like the hot dog sitting in hot dog water, you know?
14:16
It's just, like, been, it's just, like, in water, and you get warm roast beef, like. Oh, that sounds delicious. I, I don't, it doesn't do anything for me. I'll take a cold roast beef sandwich, a deli sandwich any day.
14:28
Steven Brosek, 1870, "Tennis names are like the New York Times crossword. The pronunciations get harder later in the week." I'm not sure that's true. And Kevin Ryan, "Gil, do you or Kelly ever go to Scottsdale?
14:37
Because there's a Culver's and a Portillo's within a quarter mile from each other, and both of the restaurants are near the TPC where the Waste Management is held every year."
14:46
Well, we have a, uh, someone who's, uh, from an undisclosed location in the desert. Maybe it's close to Scottsdale. I'm not giving anything away. Mark Borcherd joins us now, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:56
You can follow him at Basewinner, basewinner.com. Mark, have you, uh, ever gone to a Portillo's or Culver, and specifically the ones in Scottsdale?
15:06
I have not been to that Culver's there, but there's a, there's a Culver's right next to my wife's office. So I'll hit that pre- every now and then. I'm sure it's really good for my health. I, I usually don't.
15:18
You know, I try not to poison my body, Gil. [laughs] But, like, that, gosh, they have a butter burger there. You know, they- Ooh... they put butter on the burger. I mean, that can't be good for your heart.
15:27
I, I didn't tell my cardiologist that, but, uh, no, I know, I know where you're talking about, the, the, the Porti- Portillo's and the Culver's.
15:35
But it's, it, more importantly from a baseball standpoint, it's close to Salt River Fields. So, yeah. Wow. Very close there.
15:42
You could probably, uh, you could probably walk off your meal walking down to Salt River Fields. A spring training staple, Salt River Fields as well. Uh, all right, Mark.
15:50
Yeah, you, and the one time you went there, you couldn't get me in. You're like, "Dude, I can't get you a ticket." [laughs] So I remember that. That was, yeah. Yeah. Could, didn't have many favors to call in back then.
16:00
Uh, all right, Mark, let's, uh, let's look at these divisions, and specifically, you know, again, your numbers have been pretty steadfast on the Yankees, as I recall. They've been s- pretty steadfast on the Dodgers.
16:11
Let's talk about, let's talk about the Yankees first. AL East, Blue Jays are atop the, uh, division. Red Sox are four-and-a-half back. Yankees are six back.
16:18
Is there a play on either the Red Sox or the Yankees, or do you think the Blue Jays get home on this? I think the Blue Jays are favored by my numbers. They're 56%, but the Yankees are 31% to win the division, and- Hmm...
16:31
you know, I think they're not priced like that. I think they're, they're priced, like, plus 400. I think that's a good bet, Gil. Four to one on the Yankees to win the divisions. Yeah.
16:38
It is, I like having Mark on because he is, there's a little bit of voice of reason with him, right? Yeah. Like, people like to- Yeah... to kill the Yankees when they're down, but okay, interesting.
16:46
By the- He says my Yankees bet is still alive... by the way. Yeah, that's right. What's your bet again? Minus 220 from, like, three weeks ago. [laughs] Betting at the worst possible time, Mark.
16:55
Mark, you gotta teach them how to run the bases in the field. [laughs] That's the other thing you have to do. Uh, what about the AL Central? Tigers, six-and-a-half game lead over the Guardians.
17:04
Tigers are still winning that, right? They're good, yeah. Yeah. They, I think they have, let's see. I'm trying to look and see what their... Oh, to win the division, Gil, it's 97.5%. Ooh. Man, okay.
17:16
So yeah, I think that they've got that, that sewn up. I think- And they got a good team. You, you gotta look at the components that, that kinda power the ratings and stuff, and they're, they're better than Cleveland.
17:27
So [laughs] I mean, you know, Cleveland's behind them, so it just, it makes sense that from, from a logic standpoint. AL West, Astros, one game lead over the Mariners, six-and-a-half over the Rangers.
17:39
Yeah, this, uh, this one's, uh, uh, 50/50 for me. But I have Seattle at 49.5%. I think there's s- there's a little bit of value. I think they were, like, plus 125. Uh, but I'm, I'm really bullish on this Mariners team.
17:53
You know, if you look at the, uh, you know, offensive components, the defensive components They're better than the Dodgers and they're number one in baseball, Gil.
18:03
So I think that there's, there's some opportunity in the futures market. It might not be in that particular bet, but, uh, you know, maybe to win, to win the World Series, Gil. Yeah.
18:13
That's the thing with this, it's like... Uh, by the way, I feel this way about the Washington Commanders.
18:16
I've likened them to a baseball team that it's sort of like they may not win their division, but if you get them in the playoffs, that's not the team you wanna play kind of thing.
18:25
And, uh, by the way, Astros minus 150 to win the AL West, Mariners plus 120, so priced similarly to what Mark was talking about. Not quite, but close. The rank- I, I think one of the things... Sorry, Gil. No, go ahead.
18:35
Sorry, I mean, to, to, to jump in there, but because I wanted to say this, 'cause one of the things that I'm not pricing in is the... I think there's a home field advantage in Seattle that we're not seeing. Hmm.
18:48
And because we, uh, we don't have, uh, a, the, the playoff data to kind of support this, I think they'll have a distinctive advantage if they get some home games in the playoffs.
18:58
You look at how they've done regular season-wise, uh, at home, this is since 2023, so the last three years, uh, if you bet 'em, if you blanket bet 'em, and you're, you're only down, like, two-tenths of a percent.
19:13
And you say, "Well, you're still losing," but y- that's really...
19:15
Like, if you can break even b- blanket betting a team with all the juice, that goes to show you that I don't think it's being valued enough in the market, uh, the, the home field advantage that they have.
19:26
So I think the Seattle team, I mean, gosh, you look at the best offense in baseball right now. Uh, and then bullpen-wise they're top 10, and the starting pitching's really good, too.
19:36
So you have to throw all that together. I think that that's, that's kind of the team to focus on for, for the postseason, Gil.
19:42
Uh, National League, Phillies have a six-game lead over the Mets, Brewers have a six-and-a-half game lead over the Cubs, uh, and then the Dodgers with only a one-game lead over the Padres.
19:52
Is there a bet in any of those three? There's a little bit of value. I just looked at that, and there's some value with the Cubs. I...
19:59
You know, the Brewers are just defying gravity, but they're, they have the advantage on the Cubs. Even with that, I have the Cubs with a 27% chance to win that division. So, uh, they're getting value.
20:10
I think it's, like, plus 450, something like that, in the market. And then, uh, the Phillies are 86.5 to win that division, and then- Oof... the Mets are the 13.5. And then Dodgers and Padres, Dodgers 68%, Padres 31%.
20:26
I thought that price was kind of lousy, uh, both ways for, for, for the Padres. But there's still a little bit of value with the Padres.
20:33
You know, I was lucky enough to get down on the Padres at plus 750, so I'm liking that. But, uh, that's kind of how the percentages shake out with those particular teams, Gil. Okay.
20:42
So Padres, still no value currently is what you're saying. Your, your numbers weren't saying- There's a little bit. It's like- Yeah... I think 31%'s, like- Yeah...
20:49
plus 220 or something like that, and then they're plus 250, so a little bit. But, uh, uh, there was a lot, uh, you know. Yeah. When they...
20:57
After the deadline, they really shaped up good and, and, uh, I think they still do. Uh, it'll be interesting to see, you know, how that N- National League, uh, plays out.
21:09
Uh, the Dodgers pitching's still so good, so, uh, it's, it's... They're gonna be hard to beat, I think. What do you play today, Mark?
21:17
Well, speaking of the Yankees, uh, I'm gonna go with the Yankees, a New York parlay, Gil. Uh, Yankees, Mets, uh, I think it pays, uh, well, probably about, about one-and-a-half to one. It, it, it...
21:30
Rodon's been really good. You look at his strikeout percentage, uh, last 17 median, it's n- it's in the 98th percentile. He's got really good command, uh,.19 BBK.
21:43
And then they're going up against this, this Minnesota team. I, I... Their bullpen, they got rid of all their guys, so they're 20th in baseball from a bullpen standpoint.
21:51
You know, the Yankees bullpens, they've blown a lot of games and, uh, uh, it's really kind of hit home, 'cause I've, I've had them in a couple games that they've blown.
21:58
But if you look at the component ratings for their bullpen, sixth in baseball, still really good, and their offense is third in baseball.
22:05
And then if you look at the Mets, well, the Mets, their bullpen's second in baseball. Offensively, they are second in baseball as well. So I think the New York parlay.
22:13
The other thing too is I w- I wanna do the Arizona team, uh, to go over, Arizona/Texas over eight-and-a-half. And I think that... Do we have a little bit of time? Sure. Just, just real quick.
22:25
Arizona's components would suggest an over team, but they haven't really done that over the last month, but I think that that's, that's an aberration. Uh, I think they're gonna be an over team, uh- Mark...
22:35
running the, running the season out. Yeah. All right. So New York/New York parlay, and then the Arizona/Texas over today from Mark. Base winner. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. Thanks. Thanks, Gil.
22:45
Coming back with some football talk. AFC East next on a Numbers Game with VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
23:01
This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network, visa.com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158.
23:13
However you're taking us in, we certainly are grateful for it. Any way pleases us. Kelly's still waiting for, uh, someone to do all those methods, all those platforms at the same time. That is correct. No takers.
23:25
People are like, "That sounds dumb." Zero. It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin, by the way, producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
23:31
Captain Jack standing by, the commissioner of sports betting, Kelly, I don't know if you know that, commissioner of sports betting, uh, to talk about the state of the state, state of the industry.
23:40
Little later on in the hour he'll be in studio courtesy of BetBash, Spanky's sports betting conference, the best sports betting conference there is.
23:47
Uh, and Drew Dinsick standing by momentarily to talk, uh, football, maybe have some tennis picks for us. We get tweets at BettingTheBook. JasonH11, "Come on, Kelly.
23:54
Arby's large roast beef with Arby's sauce is the shizzle. Add a large curly fry and a Dr. Pepper and you have a meal for a king." Yeah. Just can't, just can't get there. Can't get there with the, with the beef.
24:05
I loved Dr. Pepper as a kid. I don't like it as much as an adult. This is also, like, my mustard thing, though. Yeah. I know we're just, we're gonna not, we're gonna not stop getting tweets on this. No, don't do it.
24:13
Like, "I don't like mustard." Don't do it. I don't like mustard Nah And, and, and the al- the always the follow-up question, "Even honey mustard?" Like, yes. No, anything that has mustard.
24:23
I hate mustard Right now we're gonna have 30 mustard tweets. Michael Burns, "Derek Stevens is in Missouri today," oh, he amends it to tomorrow, "presenting to the Missouri Gaming Commission. We are getting closer."
24:34
All right, we shall see. This is from, uh, Futures Bet, BP @futures_bet, "Guys, are you worried about Minkah Fitzpatrick in the AFC East now? Biggest cheap shot artist in the league. Ask Nick Chubb.
24:44
He will take a shot at Allen when running this year. Guaranteed that could sink a Bills futures bet." Oh, that's interesting. I didn't think you were going that way.
24:52
Uh, Cleve points out that the Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jalen Ramsey trade is an interesting one in the sense that Minkah had his worst season last year. In the sense that they're both washed? Yeah.
25:02
Well, he said Jalen might not be washed. So Ramsey might be okay. Yeah, Ja- that, that Jalen might not be the... But that Minkah has show, shows signs now of just being on reputation. Yeah, I, I...
25:13
No, I'm not going to worry about one specific player headhunting a quarterback- No. No, I'm not gonna... in the, in the NFL.
25:19
JT, SpeedtoBurn725, "I only wanted to bet $50 at DraftKings to, uh, for, uh, someone to have any team to go 20 and 0 and have a perfect regular se- uh, perfect season in the NFL."
25:30
Any team to go 20 and 0, so all the way through the Super Bowl is I guess what they're saying here, 17 and 0 and then, uh, three playoff games. But you know how much- Is that, [laughs] that pays 50 to 1...
25:40
you know how much? It's only 50 to 1. You know how much they let him bet on it? $1.27. Oh, my gosh. Yeah, it's just a horrible experience. Oh, man. Eric- Get it together...
25:51
Eric Berg, "If you think the Bills only-" You're only giving him 50 to 1. 50 to 1, come on.
25:55
"If you think," uh, Eric Berg, "If you think the Bills most wins is a good bet and 15 to 17 wins is possible, then you need to sprinkle on McDermott Coach of the Year 40 to 1. Shop around.
26:04
I find a, I found a 65 to 1 last week." Yeah, but I think, Eric, that goes against Cleve TA's parameters. I don't think McDermott's gonna win it. The high expectations are there. Yeah. Yeah, I, I mean, I, I don't...
26:14
I should pro-... No, the sprinkle word though is m- is probably appropriate. I mean, if, i- if you think the Bills are gonna be as good as I do, then yeah, maybe a little bit on there.
26:24
Jeff Levine says, "I prefer 7 to 1 parlay from DraftKings. Padres reach National League Championship Series, Tigers reach American League Championship Series. What do you think?"
26:33
Oh, I, I see what he's saying because I have a- Oh... because I have a Padres, Tigers matchup at 66 to 1. Um, I, I like that, Jeff. I like that. Yeah. That gives me two teams to root for then too if I make that bet.
26:45
Tronsky, "Hey, Kelly- That's more than one... hey, Kelly, I don't know who's, uh, who are these hooligans that are keeping Arby's afloat. Gil should be shaming any listener that supports their meat.
26:54
Probably the most unsustainable beef in the country." Wow, okay. Wow, we got one on the other side. Drew D-... Oh, and then let me, this one will segue nicely into Drew. This is a tweet for Drew from Tim Bowers.
27:05
"Gil, I've been listening and enjoying Drew's Deep Dive previews, but the only thing I'm curious about is they seem to be pseudo-planning to save a lot of teams until later in the season, as I was wondering what his early season strategy is regarding Survivor."
27:16
Well, we have just the man, uh, @whale_capper on Twitter, Deep Dive podcast with Eddie Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. It is Drew Dincic, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
27:27
Drew, how you doing, man? Good, although I'm reeling. I had no idea Kelly Bidlin was an anti-mustardite. I, uh, I, I gotta rethink things here. [laughs] I, um, I'm, I'm, uh, I'm, I'm tilting.
27:40
Um, but no, I'm, I'm excited to talk about Survivor. It's cool that, like, the, the thank you to the listeners who are listening to the Deep Dive and giving us this feedback.
27:49
Um, I wanna qualify this entire conversation with, um, I am about-- I'm far from the authority on how to optimize and EV play Survivor. I'm not an [laughs] especially good Survivor player.
28:01
I think the deepest run I've ever made is probably, like, week eight. I've never shipped any pool, let alone the biggest and most aggressive prize pool in all of contests, football contests [laughs].
28:11
So, uh, it is a dream, uh, to ch- to, to, to, to, uh, to chase this, uh, championship. But, um, I, uh, I, I have been kind of lobbying for a lot of the good teams, save them for later because I feel like,
28:25
you know, there, there are kind of three things at play when it comes to picking your Survivor.
28:28
You obviously want a team, uh, that is likely to win their game any given week, but you also want to mi- maximize your EV by picking against, uh, the consensus, uh, which is to say, uh, not having the top choice on the board unless there are some weeks where you just don't have a choice.
28:43
Um, and then, you know, when it comes to specifically the circus Survivor where you pick a Thanksgiving and a, um, uh, and a Christmas game, like, you gotta save some teams. You gotta save the Chiefs. Yep.
28:54
You gotta save the Commanders so that you can pick them against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and Christmas. So to answer the gentleman's question, though, you're not...
29:02
So you're not purposely saving good teams for the end. That's just the way the cookie crumbles for you early on.
29:08
Well, uh, and but I, I think in general, uh, it makes sense to, um, you know, to lock in the good quar- the good teams s- as good teams as in, like, Bills, um, you know, well Chiefs is self-explanatory because of Thanksgiving, but Bills, Ravens, uh, Eagles, I, I do think kind of saving those teams for as late as you can, uh, in the calendar this year makes sense.
29:29
Um, you know, as you go through the season, and maybe I'm too anchored to what happened last year, but, um, by the time we got to November, it was, like, haves and have-nots where, uh, you know, you had the favorites go on just some absolutely hellacious run of, uh, of win, uh, you know, winning over even closing numbers in the market, uh, for money lines.
29:49
Like, it was, it was, uh, just a heyday for the good teams, uh, against the dregs over the last third of the season last year.
29:56
Uh, and I'm not saying that that will happen every year surely, but, um, you know, it does feel like the, uh, the quarterbacks in the NFL right now are pretty clearly stratified, and you g- you're gonna want the guys that are kinda rounding into playoff form, uh, to be carrying the, the torch for you in the, uh, final weeks of the season.
30:12
Of course, besides week 18 when a lot of those teams are gonna be playing for nothing.
30:17
But, um, yeah, I think ultimately, like, the, the month of December, if that's where it, what it comes down to to win your pool is you're gonna wanna have, uh, some of those options at play because future value is, like, the last piece of the puzzle where, um, you know, if, if there is a team that presents, you know, meaningful value at the end of the season when, you know, everybody else is, is down to the dregs, then that's your distinguishing char- that's, that's, that's how you win your pool Let's, uh, let's w- let's wrap this up with a little brass tacks here.
30:42
How many entries do you think you'll have in Circus Survivor? And- Yeah, yeah... and then how will you, uh, and what teams, like, what will be the percentage of which teams you'll be on?
30:52
In other words, if you get six, will three be on the Broncos? Will you avoid the Broncos entirely? Yeah. [laughs] Like, how, what are you thinking? Broncos week one is tough to- Week one I'm talking about. Yeah...
31:01
Broncos week one is really, really tough to, uh, to steer clear of because you're getting, of course, uh, Cam Ward on his first ever start on the road against the best defense on paper in the NFL.
31:12
[laughs] That's a pretty, it's a pretty, uh, a pretty nice spot to, to use the Broncos. Um, also Broncos future value is, is not that great. That's right. There's not another...
31:22
I don't think there's another game all season where they're gonna be favored by more than a touchdown, so you kinda might as well.
31:26
Um, I think my, uh, the answer is I'm probably gonna have six, uh, at least six, uh, Survivor entries. Uh, haven't entirely decided yet. Won't be signing up until the 21st-24th sign up weekend.
31:38
Um, and, uh, I'll probably split 50/50 where I'm gonna go contrarian with three of my six and try to find a team, you know, f- find surprise winners in the early few weeks of the season in the hopes that there is just carnage and chaos elsewhere.
31:53
Uh, and then use three of my entries and, and be a little bit more chalky over the first quarter of the season just to try to make sure I have some live entries for mid-season and beyond. I like it. Resonates with me.
32:03
I think I'll have six again, and I think that's kinda how I'm playing it as well. Uh, okay, you have done these deep dive previews for all, for the NFL teams. You're going team by team. Uh, all 32 will be done, and
32:17
I, I think the question I wanna ask today is which is the team that from the time you've done it, the time you guys did, you and Andy did the preview 'til now, is the one where you're like, "Ooh, I don't know if I should've been so strong about this team.
32:31
I kinda feel differently about them now." Is there a team like that? Uh, I'm not that far off market [laughs] with anyone.
32:40
Uh, so it's tough to say, but the two, the one that's changed the most to the good and the one that's changed the most to the bad are actually pretty obvious for me. Um, the good is the Seattle Seahawks.
32:50
All of the questions- Ooh... I had about, well, who's gonna, you know, like, i- is the line coming together? Is the offen- is Cu- Kubiak gonna be able to give you better offense than, than, um, uh, than Grubb?
33:00
Is, who, wh- who's the wi- what wide receiver's gonna emerge to take some of these targets, uh, that are vacated by Metcalf and Lockett?
33:07
And, you know, all, all of those questions to this point in the pre-season are being positively affirmed with what you're seeing in the joint practices, training camp reports, um, and to a lesser degree, the pre-season game.
33:18
Um, and so I think the Seahawks, uh, to me at least, are the bigger risers, biggest risers. Um, and, uh, to me the biggest fallers is, like, it's not even a question, it's the Cowboys. Ooh.
33:28
The Cowboys defense in the joint practice against the Rams was so bad, and I was like, I, I... It was, it was, like, staggering, like, the degree to which they were not ready to play.
33:39
And, uh, you know, you can point to the fact that they weren't full, full strength secondary, that Mike Parsons isn't out there. Okay.
33:46
Like, there are holes all over that defense, and, uh, if your answer if you're a Cowboys fan to how you're gonna compete is, "Well, Dak's back.
33:53
Our offense is gonna be able to go score for score with some teams," they wanna be a running team and they can't run the football.
33:59
Like, the degree to which their interior offensive line was getting zero, uh, 1B-1 wins against the Rams was, uh, was, uh, also, again, like, staggering. So, um, yeah, I think, um, my number's...
34:11
The biggest, uh, side edge I have for week one is Eagles over Cowboys on Thursday night, and, uh, I think betting against the Cowboys is gonna be a healthy exercise for me all season based on the way the market has them versus my number.
34:23
Music to my DC ears. I'm glad I asked that question. Wow, I did not expect those two answers. [laughs] Um, more questions for Drew about, uh, his going through the NFL teams on the other side.
34:33
Plus, does he have any week two NFL pre-season plays that are still, uh, playable? Mm. Anything in Cincinnati, in tennis today? Drew Dincic, well capper, on the other side, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:45
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