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Aug 13, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 13, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 13, 2025
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33:50
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, it's YouTube TV, by the way, not U2 TV. Sirius XM Channel 158. Yes. [laughs] It's Gil Alexander.
0:23
Just wanted to clarify in case you were looking for U2 TV. Gil Alexander. That is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. I kind of wanna punch in U2 TV in my browser right now- Yeah... but I'm a little scared of what might come up.
0:33
It's like Bono and then us. [laughs] And then back to Bono. I didn't even think about that. Uh, this, uh, this show is packed with guests. Overbooked.
0:44
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, on the show today, hour number two, it w- not even listed 'cause there's no room. No room. It's on a second graphic. Rufus Peabody will join us, maybe the best, uh, bettor of his generation.
0:55
What's he gonna do? He gonna keep on betting? I don't know. We'll see. These days with new tax laws, we'll find out from Rufus. Been traveling the world. Ed Thang from the Power Rank.
1:03
Uh, these of course are folks who are here for Bet Bash. Bet Bash V, Spanky Sports Betting Conference. So Ed Thang, Rufus Peabody, Kelly Country Clubbin' on the BMW as well in hour number two.
1:13
Greg Peterson, full MLB slate. Oops. Oops. Peterson with MLB. Did I look at the MLB schedule and see that everything is, like, an hour back today in the morning? Oh, really? Let me check that out.
1:24
Or did my phone just go on the fritz and start going at a different time zone? Put you at, put you in Mountain Time? Yeah. I don't know. Greg Peterson, full MLB slate. He'll be talking.
1:31
Paul Carr, this is w- this is my favorite Paul Carr appearance of the year. I'm pumped, actually. Like, really pumped. Yeah. Premier League season longs.
1:39
I was lis- I was listening to him, uh, uh, on the podcast for a little bit on my way in. The Ringer Podcast. The Ringer Podcast. Yeah. And they did, like, an hour and 45 minutes.
1:48
Uh, he'll- I didn't listen to the whole thing, obviously... he'll, he'll talk title, he'll talk top half, he'll talk bottom half, relegation, last place, Golden Boot.
1:56
He'll explain to us what top half and bottom half mean? Eh, I think that's self-explanatory. Oh, okay. It is? See, there's 20 teams, then there's 10 on top and there's 10 on the bottom.
2:06
Wait, th- th- those are like conferences? No, it's just you can make bets in those markets. Okay. No conferences. Um, and then we can talk about other stuff with him, too, uh, again, off-season main storylines.
2:17
We'll do it all Premier League. And Will Hill will join us, uh, before all of that for all of his bets across the ol' sports betting landscape.
2:24
Uh, there are no tennis plays this morning, Kelly, which, uh, I don't know, some people will say, "Oh, okay, how could you have none, uh, with the momentum?"
2:32
Yesterday, by the way, yesterday in tennis hit another couple big doggies. We were two and two, but the two winners were a plus 235 on Lucia Bronzetti and a plus 264 on Ella Seidel. Nice.
2:45
Could have even had a better day. Seidel won a, won a tiebreaker, a come from behind tiebreaker to win that match for us.
2:50
But the other two matches, which was, uh, which were a plus 311 and a plus 181, the pl- plus 311 lost two consecutive tiebreakers, and the plus 181 lost a tiebreaker that she had no business losing a set, th- that, that particular set.
3:03
But anyway, a plus 235 and a plus 264 yesterday, a plus 319 the day before, a plus 147, a plus 263, a plus 196, and a plus 142 to boot the last four days, so it has been a tennis cavalcade.
3:18
And yet, Kelly Bidlin, no tennis plays today. There are, uh, we're at the business end of the tournament in Cincinnati, which is of course the prelim, if you will, to the United States Open.
3:29
Um, and the reason is 'cause just I'm, I'm not just gonna force something because we're hitting a lot of dogs here and doing very well. Um, I could make a case for one play,
3:41
which is Anna Kalinskaya against Ekaterina Alexandrova, and this is a sort of a handicapping little case study where it's okay. Everything's going well.
3:50
The numbers are looking great on my end, obviously manifesting in some big wins. But even with some value that I'm showing on Kalinskaya, hey, if handicapping were only that easy, right?
4:01
There's a head-to- I don't usually pay attention to head-to-head competition. Oh, that's interesting.
4:06
But Alexandrova has beaten Kalinskaya six out of six times, so I'm gonna have the humility and the numbers here to say that maybe there's something I'm not capturing in this matchup. I think that's completely fair. Yeah.
4:16
I think it's completely fair. In, in baseball for instance, when I handicap baseball, a lot of people look at, uh, BV- BVP, batter versus pitcher stats, and I think a lot of handicappers overrate that. Mm-hmm.
4:27
'Cause unless you have 50 at bats or something like that, it's really noise in terms of a head-to-head matchup between batter and pitcher.
4:35
I always like to kind of pick and choose things that I can compare, you know, compare what we do, golf and tennis, with especially with them being individual sports, but of course that's not something that I'm el- I'm ever looking at with golf.
4:45
But, uh, that, that's interesting to hear 'cause I feel like I would, I w- I think I'd look at it the same w- the same way.
4:50
You're going, you're weighing recent form data way, way more than what you're we- weighing with those guys head-to-head lifetime.
4:56
Yeah, and so in other words, so why, why are you doing it for this one in this tennis match? Just because I have a, there's just a hunch on it that I, I also don't do well with Kalinskaya generally speaking. Mm.
5:08
There's, there's always a, a, a tennis player or two or a baseball pitch- you know, a pitcher in baseball. I always talk about Ervin Santana as my guy whenever I, all those years I had- Like Keith Mitchell in golf? Yeah.
5:19
Yeah, yeah. Ervin Santana was my guy in baseball. I always talked about, I was like, "When I, when I faded him, he was Cy Young. When I backed him, he was a gas can."
5:27
Um, so with Kalinskaya, I never seem to get her right, so I'm gonna, I'm gonna steer clear of that. Now, if, if she wins as a, what is she now? Plus 150 dog or whatever she is, plus 155, will I hate myself?
5:36
Yeah, probably a little bit. How do you, how do you, uh, how do you feel about these futures right now? We got Sabs plus 220 and Iga plus 275. Yeah. Anybody call her Sabs? Uh, just you. I'm gonna start that. Sabs. Um,
5:50
Iga hasn't played it feels like in a week 'cause she got a, uh, a walkover on these. Um, but uh, yeah. No, I think that's properly priced. I mean, I obviously think Iga's should be shorter, but you know, tomato, tomato.
6:02
Kalinskaya plus 150 at DraftKings. Yeah, it's, it's getting there. But yeah, I'm just gonna, I'm just gonna err on the side of caution today with no tennis plays. We'll be back at it tomorrow. Um, baseball.
6:16
The Milwaukee Brewers may never lose again. The Milwaukee Brewers now with an 11-game win streak.
6:22
They beat Paul Skeens, and by the way, that has some NL Cy Young implications perhaps, but they beat Paul Skeens and the Pirates by two touchdowns yesterday, 14 to nothing.
6:32
And that's the 11th straight win for the Brewers. They are now the first team to have two 11-game winning streaks since the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays.
6:40
It's been 10 years since another team did this in one season, two 11-game winning streaks. You know how long it's taken the Brewers to have those two 11-game winning streaks? A span of 38 days.
6:52
They did it, uh, wrapped around the All-Star break in July as well. Yep. You were out when this was happening. Yes. Matt Brown was in. Yeah. We got note of this.
7:01
Don't know if you picked this up in the ru- in the rundown. Oh, you did. George Webb's free burgers. You love this stuff. It's, I love this stuff. It's back on the line. Back on the line. Brewers need one more win.
7:11
I've never seen a George Du- a, a George Webb burgers. I, I don't even know what it is, Gil. We talked, we talked about some fast food, uh, earlier in the week. Never seen one, never heard of it.
7:19
Giving away free burgers, though, if, uh, they get, pick up a 12 win winning, uh, t- 12-game winning streak. Do you know how many times it's happened in the history of the franchises of Milwaukee?
7:30
Since you're asking like that, it's gotta be very few. Twice. That's amazing. It's amazing. And here they have two 11s almost back to back, but again, in a span of 38 days.
7:40
Again, it's the 2015 Jays, the 30- the 1935 Cubs, and the 1954 Cleveland Indians. Those are the only other teams that have done it twice, two 11-game winning streaks in the same season. That's amazing. That's wild. Yeah.
7:52
Um- Get those burgers. Don't let the f- the fans down, Brewers. Come on. And the Brewers, by the way, waited till August began to do the second one, so they are 11 and 0 in the month of August.
8:01
I have the Rangers, who are just miserable. They did not, they immediately stopped scoring runs. This is m- my worst call of any of the months.
8:07
But even if I had the Mariners, which is one of the other teams I considered, again, at nine and one right behind the 11 and 0 Brewers in August, the Brewers still have two more, two extra games to play than do the Mariners.
8:18
So this is a massive w- a massive lead in the August sweepstakes here between the Brewers and everybody else. Plus 57. [laughs] Plus 57. Look at those one-run records for all those teams up on that board right there.
8:31
Yeah. Yeah, that's cra- Man, Mariners, wow. Brewers three and O, Mariners five and O. Brewers to minus 170 in updated odds to win this month with 19 games remaining. [laughs] Just amazing.
8:43
Um, okay, they go for d- they go for 12 in a row tonight against the, uh, or today against the Pirates. So, um, two divisions in Major League Baseball, the big headline, two divisions tied at the top now.
8:54
Finally happened, Dodgers. A- AL West, NL West. AL West, Astros, Mariners. NL West, Dodgers, Padres. And that's the big news atop divisions.
9:05
And so there's also these interesting, you know, markets for the number six seed in each league, which I think are pretty interesting. Um, actually, can I do the NL one first, guys?
9:16
Sorry about that, a little curveball here, but- These also shifted drastically because of those results last night with the divi- Yes... you know, divisions getting tied up, right?
9:23
You get m- another wild card possibility more l- even more likely. The NL one to me is properly priced.
9:29
In other words, if you look at the NL right now, the NL standings and the way that it shakes out, um, I only think you, I only think there's two teams to consider here. I really do. And that's the Mets and the Reds.
9:41
The Mets currently inhabit the, uh, the number six position in Major League Baseball's, uh, in, in the National League's playoff standings.
9:49
The Mets are, are, the Mets are in sixth, where the Reds are two games behind them.
9:54
Now, the reason teams like the Dodgers or the Padres, who currently, again, the Padres would lose a tiebreaker, so the Padres technically are the number two wild card team, even though they're tied with the Dodgers right now.
10:05
The Cubs are the number one wild card team. Behind Cincinnati, who's two games out, you have the Cardinals and Giants of the world.
10:13
I don't think either of those two teams are good enough to catapult, some of them may even quit, to take the, the sixth seed, in other words, the third wild card.
10:22
And I don't think San Diego or the Dodgers, no matter how you feel about them, or the Cubs no matter, no matter how you feel about them, are going to fall because the Cubs have the t- have the third easiest schedule the rest of the way.
10:33
The Padres have the second easiest schedule- Oh, yeah... the rest of the way, and the Dodgers have the s- the single easiest schedule the rest of the way. So to me, it's Mets versus Reds. That's it.
10:42
And the Mets have the two-game lead, plus 160, Reds five to one. If there's any bet here, it's only on those two teams. Not feeling Cardinals at all? No. Four games back? Okay. By the way, Reds- Another good breakdown...
10:54
but here's, but here's the problem. The Reds have the single hardest remaining schedule in all of baseball. That checks out- So if you-... 'cause I was gonna say that number feels a little long for where they're at.
11:03
Yeah. Yeah, so if you're, if you're thinking about the five to one, keep that in mind. The AL, so, so that one's not very sexy bet, bet, bet-wise. This one's not very sexy bet-wise because it's a complete free-for-all.
11:13
Throw a dart, yeah. [laughs] Yeah. And I couldn't tell you, like, to me, the best value is probably the Rangers and then the Astros falling at seven to one to plus 750, but I have no conviction behind it.
11:27
Rangers can't hit. Astros would have to fall quite a little bit. Yeah. Um, Red Sox are probably the correct short shot, but this is a complete dart throw to me.
11:36
I don't see any particular value on any team, and I don't want to prattle on and make it a case for any of them. But those are interesting markets you can bet into for sure as well.
11:44
We'll get Will Hill's thoughts on that. Maybe he has a thought on the AL and all his bets. Next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:02
Taylor Swift on the Kelsey Podcast. Why can't you book her? She has a fever. VSIN and Winners Circle Proxy are giving away two grand prize packages for the Circa Millions 7 contest.
12:13
Each includes a fully paid entry, full season proxy service from the team at Winners Circle Proxy, and an exclusive behind-the-scenes tour of our VSIN studios in Las Vegas. It's free to enter.
12:21
Just go to winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin and fill out the short form before August 17th. Don't miss your shot to play for $6 million in guaranteed prizes this season. Go to winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin.
12:34
Kelsey's getting Taylor Swift, we get Ed Fang. Who wins? [laughs] Us. Clearly. I, uh, you just kind of brought up a challenge.
12:41
Now I'm gonna see, I'm gonna see how far up the, the as- levels of assistance that Taylor Swift has that I can actually get a human response from for a booking for this show.
12:52
[laughs] 'Cause I'm definitely not gonna hear from, like, her. You know, you know what the problem is? If, if you, if Taylor Swift actually says, "Yeah, I'll come on the show," I would have no idea what to ask her.
13:00
She's like the one musical artist I- Oh, it'd be fine. Yeah. We'd figure it out. "Hey, so remember that time that you had that one song where you talked about that boy?" I wouldn't know what else to say.
13:08
I'd, I have no idea. She did have a good promo for the pod today, though.
13:10
She brought up, she, like, her one line in the pr- little teaser they released was just like, uh, "Me ta- me on a football podcast, what every guy out there wanted to hear more of." [laughs] That's good. Good for her.
13:21
Uh, Paul Carr, ladies and gentlemen, joins us. It's been a long time since we heard from, uh, Paul on the show. He is, uh, part of the Ringer Soccer Podcast and, of course, at True Media Networks.
13:31
He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Gasline @paulcarr, C-A-R-R, on Twitter. What's happening, Paul? How you doing, man? Yep. This is one of my favorite shows every year. Get to do the Premier League preview.
13:43
Soccer never stops, but it's kind of starting anew, at least in this vein, so we're ready to roll. Soccer never stops. Let's just start with, uh, just a general, if, if you would, for- Yeah...
13:54
if, if we could, which is, you know, just in terms of the off-season, um, from a high level, what's, like, been a main storyline?
14:03
So far, and I put the asterisk that the transfer window i- is at the end of the month, so things could change in the next couple weeks, but so far, like, the rich are getting richer.
14:12
So your top four teams, you know, your Liverpool, Arsenal, City, and Chelsea, which are by far the top four favorites to win or to finish in the top four, are outspending everybody.
14:22
And, you know, almost all the big money transfers have been those four clubs and Manchester United, who are traditionally a big club, although they were terrible last year. We'll get to them in a little bit. So,
14:32
you look at the whole mid-table, and most of them are like, "Ah, we got a piece or two," but didn't make any big moves.
14:36
So it's just kind of the, the big clubs have been snapping up a lot of big players, both from in England and across Europe. So that, it seems like there's a big divide between the top four and everybody else right now.
14:47
All right. Before we dive in here, Tim Lawson, the Better Life, the Better Life. What, what was the, what's his new, uh, iteration called? The Better Life, A Better, Better something or other?
14:56
Oh, we gotta figure out what it's called. Now you're putting me on the spot. It's Better Life 2.0. He asks, uh- [laughs]...
15:00
a question for Paul Carr, how much does he consider teams coming in or out of European tournaments from the year prior when assessing season futures? Is that a big deal in your handicapping?
15:10
So if I understand correctly, or maybe I'll just go a different direction, when teams play in Europe, that definitely changes things. You know, your top clubs, doesn't really matter.
15:18
They have the depth and the money to manage two, three, four competitions at a time. But one prime example this year is Nottingham Forest. They were a surprise last year, finishing in the top half.
15:28
They almost finished in the top four. And this year they're in Europa League. They haven't been in Europe for a while, even though historically they've had some success winning a couple European cups back in the day.
15:38
I don't know that they have the squad depth. So that's an, one reason to kind of fade Nottingham Forest this year.
15:44
I'd be kind of surprised if they finished in the top half, in part because they've got to go play every Thursday in Kazakhstan or wherever they end up in the Europa League draw.
15:53
So it's a factor, especially for those mid-table type of teams that are not in these European competitions every year. All right, we got a lot to get to. Let's flash up that, uh, Premier League futures board once again.
16:03
Liverpool is the short shot to win, plus 180. Arsenal, plus 225. Man City, three to one. Chelsea, plus 850. Everybody else, starting with Man U, a distant long shot beginning at 30 to one. Who we got to win it all?
16:19
Yeah, so one of the reasons this season looks fun is those top three teams especially, like, there's a legit case for all three of them, and there's a legit case against all three of them.
16:27
For me, I'm going with Manchester City at plus, I have them at plus 320, plus 300 there, so right there in that range.
16:35
And the narrative part is, look, they had a down year last year, this is gonna be a bounce back year, and, you know, maybe this is Pep's last season. We've been saying that for a while. Their manager.
16:45
But it's a bounce back season. City's gonna be back to normal. They're gonna get 85 points and win the league. Uh, so that's, that's your narrative part.
16:51
But last year, as bad as it was, and we made a lot of money betting against them for a couple months, they finished with 71 points, which is, they were three points behind Arsenal, who was in second place.
17:02
So, you know, a few more bounces go their way, they're pushing 80, and they brought in a lot of attacking firepower especially. Uh, not that they necessarily needed more, but they got that.
17:11
Rodri, their defensive midfielder, who was the FIFA Player of the Year a couple years ago, is back. Uh, he'll get to full strength eventually.
17:19
So, so much went wrong, and they still finished in third place relatively easily. They can, they have room to improve.
17:25
Still not sure they can defend, but they're better in attack, and that's enough for me, getting plus 320 on City to win the title. All right. Man City to win the title, plus 320. Shop around.
17:36
Uh, we also flashed up on that table top four, top six. Uh, you're not touching either of those two markets. Yeah, I don't, I don't have a good feel for this.
17:43
Top four, like I said, there's, I think there's four clear-cut teams. I'd be surprised if any of them aren't in the top four.
17:49
The next group of four or so, Man United, Tottenham, Villa, and Newcastle, all have major questions, and it wouldn't shock me if any one of them, maybe a couple of them, finish in the bottom half.
17:59
So, and, and the mid-table is so jumbled that I don't feel great about any team particularly jumping that high.
18:04
So getting into the top four and definitely making Champions League, top five probably makes it, uh, I'm staying away for now. All right. But top half, bottom half, you do have plays in.
18:14
Yeah, I got a couple top half plays. So like I said, four teams locked for the top half, then four that are very much expected to, but I expect one or two not to make it. So you got two to three spots to play with.
18:26
Uh, so I have two of them. Crystal Palace and Everton I think can both make that jump. Palace was about as good as anybody the second half of last season.
18:34
One caveat for them is they are in Europe this year in Conference League, so that may test the depth a little bit. But they, you know, they played Liverpool to a standstill in the Community Shield over the weekend.
18:45
I think that's an indication of how good they are, and they actually ran bad last year from a underlying numbers standpoint. So there's room to improve.
18:53
So they can do better than their 53 points last season, make the top half. I got plus 170 on them. Everton switched managers.
19:01
They brought back David Moyes, and they were a solid, very solid top half team the second half of last year. They just gotta continue that and they can sneak back in. Brought in a little bit of attacking firepower.
19:12
Uh, you know, plus 210 is my price for them in the top half. Uh, they were kind of in the relegation area for a while, even though their underlying numbers were much better.
19:21
But I think they're a solid mid-table team and got a one in three shot at finishing in the top 10. All right. And that's bot- and bottom half, Man U. Yeah. I mentioned one of these teams has gotta fall.
19:31
Doesn't have to, but is likely to fall into the bottom half, and I think it's Manchester United again. Only had 42 points, finished 15th, I think, last season.
19:40
They spent over $200 million to bring in three attackers, which is nice, except their big problems were in the midfield and defense. They haven't really done much to address those yet.
19:49
So I don't quite know how this team's gonna fit together. So this is a shot. This is plus 330 to finish bottom half. But I, I just don't quite see them making the jump. They have a real tough start to the schedule.
20:00
Non-zero chance they change managers before Halloween or something. So under... Not under, but bottom half for Manchester United at plus 330 for me. Plus 330 on that. All right. Relegation, bottom three.
20:11
You've had success in this in the past. Yeah. What do I care? Let's go. Yeah, this is funny. So last two years, all the rel- all the newly promoted teams went straight back down.
20:21
So your prices this year on the relegated team, or the newly promoted teams going right back down, are pretty crazy. It's, I mean, trying to...
20:29
Burnley and Sunderland to get relegated are, they, like the price is just barely worth playing. Burnley's like minus 310, Sunderland minus 250. By far the worst teams in the league.
20:39
Uh, I'd be shocked if they don't go back down. Leeds is the other one. They're about even money, and that's, you know, I think other people are higher on Leeds than I am, but I can see them staying up.
20:49
So my shot is at Wolves at plus 320. And I think I've picked them like three or four years in a row to get relegated, and they just keep getting away with staying in the league,
20:58
and I think it's gonna catch up with them eventually. They didn't, haven't done a lot offensively or defensively r- r- really to upgrade. They lost their two best attackers during this off-season.
21:08
They do have a good manager, which is the only thing that gives me a little bit of pause. But they've been running so well the last few years that they're almost just due as much as anything, and I kinda hate to say it.
21:18
But Wolves plus 320, I like that price for them to go down. All right. So R- Wolverhampton relegation plus 320. Burnley dead last at plus 160. Yeah. Okay. Keep in mind- They ran so hot last year.
21:30
They gave up 16 goals last year in 46 games in the championship, which is the second division. But the underlying numbers said they should've given up around 40.
21:38
So their defense really wasn't very good, or wasn't as good as it looked, and a solid defense is the best indication of trying to stay up for these newly promoted teams. So I don't think they have that.
21:48
I don't think they have the ability to score goals. Their manager, Scott Parker, has gotten two other teams promoted before and gone right back down because they can't score. So I think we'll see the same thing there.
21:57
I think they're gonna be really bad. Uh, plus 160 to be last. It's them or Sunderland at plus 175 are, are really the two options. So I went with Burnley here. All right, and finally, 30 seconds. Golden Boot.
22:08
What do you got? Very price dependent. You can get plus 2800 on Cole Palmer of Chelsea to win the Golden Boot. He takes penalties. He's on a top team. Those are our two criteria.
22:18
So make sure you shop around and find the 2800. Don't play 17 or 1800 like a lot of places. But you can find that plus 2800. He could get 15 to 20 goals and add five or six penalties and maybe make a run. All right.
22:29
Paul will come back tomorrow with actual, uh, match plays, correct? Back-to-back Paul Carr appearances? Yeah. That's right. Let's go. I love it. Thank you, Paul. Great to see you, man. Thanks for all those. You bet.
22:40
Tim Lawson's podcast, by the way, the new version, The Better Life, better than ever. That's right. Want to make that clarification.
22:45
How about some baseball plays all day long with Greg Peterson next on a Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:01
Cirque or Survivor: the quest for $14.2 million. 10-part documentary series following the drama, strategy, and heartbreak inside the world's largest legal football contest.
23:10
You can catch the final four episodes tonight through the 16th at 9:00 PM Eastern, and if you miss an episode, you can watch them all now at vsin.com/survivor.
23:20
You can actually binge-watch them till the end if you'd like as well. They are all available there at vsin.com/survivor. I'm curious if my next guest, uh, is gonna participate in Survivor as well.
23:31
He is, uh, he objects to this, what I'm about to say, but perhaps, perhaps- Love it... he's one of the finest sports bettors, if not the finest of his generation.
23:39
It's Rufus Peabody, also co-founder of Unabated, part of the Massey Peabody crew. What else do you do? I don't know. It's Rufus Peabody, everybody. I'm just joking. How you doing, man? Trying to do less.
23:48
Are you doing Survivor? I, you know, I haven't decided yet. Have you done it before? Yeah, two years ago. Two years ago we did it. Um, it's so much fun, but it does take up a good amount of time to make those decisions.
23:59
Your brain space too, right? Like, you sort of become obsessed with it. Yeah. I mean, I, like, I would like to do it. I think it i- it is fun, e- even if it is negative EV a little bit. I mean- Yeah...
24:09
it's, it's like playing the lottery. You're, you're one of those players that is definitely a play to win guy. You would... I, I totally know the type of player you are.
24:17
You're like a, you're absolutely not gonna play the most picked plays on a given week. Usually that's- Yeah... generally your strategy?
24:25
Well, I think it's like, it's, it's like building a bracket, and you had Ed Fang on in here, and he's like the bracket specialist. Yeah. But you wanna deviate from what everybody else is doing strategically.
24:34
Um, you've been traveling. You're a little jet-lagged this morning. Very jet-lagged. Um, yeah, I, I got in, I flew in from, from Greece, what? Two nights ago. For BetBash specifically? For BetBash specifically.
24:46
Like, 10-hour, 10-hour time change is no joke. Yeah. Are we gonna, are we gonna get you in the, uh, sports, uh, gambling hall of fame one of these days here? Spanky's thing? I, you know, I, I,
24:57
m- you, I would love that someday, but- Yeah... I think hopefully that's a long time in the future. Okay. And let's speak about that for a second. Captain Jack, your other Unabated co-founder- Mm-hmm...
25:07
was in here yesterday. By the way, do you have an Unabated 30-second speech, or do you not wanna give it? I'm very bad at the elevator pitches. You really are bad at this. I really am.
25:12
I, I'm gonna let you give the elevator pitch. No, that's okay. He did a good job yesterday. I gotta stick to my strengths. [laughs] That's right.
25:17
Okay, so one of the things we were talking about is obviously the big beautiful build, the new tax structure, and, and Jack on his way out yesterday was like, "Yeah, you might wanna, like, uh, get a heat..."
25:28
He didn't say the words heat check, these are my words- Uh-huh... on Rufus. And so I think that's actually a good thing to ask you, which is does this in any way change?
25:35
Because years ago, you will remember, this is more than a decade ago, you and I used to have conversations even then when you were like, "Yeah, I probably wanna do more with my life at some point more important than sports betting."
25:49
Does this development sort of push you along that way? Yeah, I think it does to some extent, for sure. I mean, for, the first thing I think about are, like, what are the workarounds?
25:59
Because right now, like, I've, I've built this, you know, I've built models and this infrastructure so that I can-- I don't have to work that much, and I can still make good money right now. Mm-hmm.
26:09
And so it's kind of hard to walk away from that, but if I was forced to walk away, it is interesting to think about what I would do. What would you do? I don't know. [laughs] No idea. I, I mean, I,
26:19
I find a new adve- I'd find adventure.
26:22
And flying back from Greece, I kind of had this moment of, like, like, kind of intense depression, um, on the flight, and then I took a little nap and felt a lot better, but- [laughs]...
26:31
but it was, I think, this idea that, like, my life doesn't have adventure anymore in a sense. Rufus' remedy for depression, take a nap. It, it, yeah. Yeah. So- But, I mean- Wait...
26:42
look, when, when I started in this business, like, it was, there was so much adventure.
26:46
I moved out to Vegas knowing nobody, taking a job with, you know, oddsmakers, and then I was trying to make it in this industry, like, trying to gamble for a living and, and doing something that, like, nobody else is really doing.
26:58
And that, there was a huge amount of adventure in that, like, kind of going out and blazing my own trail. And now I'm kind of, it's just, like, inertia keeping me going- Yeah... and, and the money.
27:06
Life is happening to you. Life is- Yeah. Yeah, exactly, but I mean, I don't know what that other, what that adventure would be, but I f- I feel like I need something
27:16
that, like, with goalposts it's difficult to achieve that motivates me.
27:20
So the start of the new NFL season-- By the way, for those who don't know, uh, Rufus is referring to, uh, coming to, coming to Las Vegas from Yale, working with Ro- w- w- working with Kenny White, I think- Kenny White...
27:30
initially and then Roxy after that. Well, Roxy sold LVSC back in, like- Yeah... right around the turn of the century. So and then you, and then you decided to come to the other side of the, uh, the aisle, if you will.
27:41
Well, it was- Yeah. A natural progression. You know, it was, it was a tough decision at the time, but it, it, it was the best decision I ever made 'cause I quit...
27:48
'Cause this is when I met, like, you know, Zach White, um, Mark DeRosa, Scott Train- Yeah... um, and, and they gave me a free roll betting baseball in the 2009 season, and, like,
27:59
I, it was much more profitable than working for LVSC- And today-... making, like, $10 an hour... today you are primarily golf college bets. College basketball, college football. Yeah.
28:10
So now does the, does the new season of- A little NFL... college football and pro football, does that excite you to, like, make season-long bets or not really?
28:17
I haven't done anything with futures, and I do li- I, I actually enjoy futures betting and enjoy kind of like the, the having a reason to, like, root for something in a game. Yeah.
28:27
Um, but I haven't done anything with that yet, and I, I don't know if we will. You know, you do tie up money- Yeah... and credit. But also, I just don't know if...
28:37
I mean, I, I haven't done that much analysis, well, or, like, really any analysis for football yet. Golf, though, every time, every week, still doing it? Yeah, every week. It's, you know, it's the weekly rhythm.
28:49
Any, any thoughts on the BMW while you're here kind of thing? Um, yeah, I mean, I, I definitely have thoughts. I, uh- Would you care to share your thoughts? Well, I mean, Scheffler's really, really good at golf.
28:58
Thank you for that. Anything beyond that? And it's, and it's, it's crazy how high his floor is. Right. Do you-- I mean, because he has, like, his short game is, I mean, not putting, like he's a very good putter, but
29:10
you know, his short game is really, really good, and that prevents him from, like, having any sort of really, like, disaster performance, whereas like a Sepp Straka, very, very good player, not, like, not a good short game, not a gr- like, he's a below average bunker player.
29:24
And so he can have these bad weeks when his ball striking isn't perfect. But I think it, it, it's interesting.
29:29
I mean, I feel like we're approaching Tiger levels of pricing for- I was, I was just gonna ask you, with your numbers, does, does Scheffler come close to your recollection of what your Tiger numbers were back in the day?
29:39
Well, I w- I mean, back in the day, I wasn't, I wasn't doing this during Tiger's peak. Yeah.
29:44
But, uh, you know, Tiger won one in three tournaments over a 10-year span, which is, I, I don't know if anybody's, uh, ever gonna replicate that.
29:51
But I think where he is, how he's playing now is close to Tiger in that range or that, yeah, timeframe, but it's really hard to sustain that for a long period of time. Yeah. All right, so you're here for BetBash.
30:05
You are doing your podcast, I believe, at BetBash, you and Jeff? Yeah, tomorrow. Bet The Process. Bet The Process.
30:11
Um, by the way, Kelly had a great compliment for you I shared with you, which is you got to do a solo one, and you did it with, uh, the gentleman from Novig. Henry Karins.
30:22
It was maybe my favorite podcast I've ever recorded. Kelly said you were fantastic as a host. Well, and, and I, I mean, I had a great subject.
30:28
Like, Henry was super interesting and, and a lot of it came out of conversations we had had- Um, up in Canada a few weeks before.
30:35
And, and like, he's a really interesting guy and, and I liked being able to sort of talk about both the life stuff, 'cause he has some interesting opinions on things, and, and like, you know,
30:46
exchanges, trading, betting, how it all play- how it all kind of fits together. What is your, what is your sort of take on exchanges, sweepstakes, all those things that are out there now?
30:56
Do you, a- have you gravitated that way, or do you think you will more in the future? Yeah, I, I mean, yes. Like, I'm, I'm gonna go where the liquidity is. Mm-hmm.
31:07
Um, and I think sort of moving in the direction of, towards market-making, especially if the tax provision in the one big beautiful bill doesn't get repealed, uh, that, you know, if you're, if you're doing market-making, um, like at least, I don't wanna say institutional, but like, if, if, if you're doing it,
31:25
like, with a provider agreement and all that stuff, like that, that isn't betting income. And so, um, so that's an advantage.
31:33
But also, I, I do think, like, i- it's, especially for something like golf, it's, it's nice for, to be able to lay guys not to win, right? Yes. Like for example, this week- Oh, you, you-...
31:43
this week I very much don't like Justin Rose. Yes. What, there's a, there's a Twitter account that tracks these big bets, and every time they come on we always go, "Oh, Rufus made a bet." It's always you, pretty much.
31:55
I don't, I don't know if that's true. Well, okay.
31:57
We're gonna go with it, that's y- B- basically what we're talking about is a, you know, some big bet to win very, like a big minus price on someone, say, to miss the cut, that kind of thing.
32:07
Well no, I, I mean, I'd say more outrights. Okay. Like for example, this week we r- Or to not win, right? Yeah, we, we- Yeah...
32:12
really don't like Justin Rose, and you can get him at, like, I d- I don't see him on the screen here, but you can get him at, like, 45, 50 to 1 range, I believe, and we make him well over 100 to 1.
32:24
And I mean, we're low on him largely 'cause he's had a few really, really good performances this year and last year, like wins and, like, top fives, and then some really bad ones too, and so the market kind of is banking on the fact that he is sort of high variance and when he puts it together for a week he can win.
32:40
But if I wanna lay, like, you know, I could lay one to 100. I could, like, I can put up something, right?
32:46
Like if I, if, if I put up an offer on one of these exchanges to get where someone could take 100 to 1, like someone's gonna take that. Of course. Right? Yeah.
32:54
And I don't think that's the right strategy for me, because I think I could put a, put him up at 70 to 1 and probably get filled there.
33:00
But there, i- i- it's a way to sort of get exposure when you don't like a guy n- rather than, you know, on, like, normally- Yeah... at a sportsbook you can only bet on a guy to win.
33:12
Well, it's, it's so interesting because, you know, on a day-to-day basis, not only on this show but on most sports betting content, you know, we're talking about, "Hey, you know, we think the, i- you know, the Guardians are gonna win today," or something like that.
33:23
And so it's, it's a, you know, it's the daily fare. And for someone doing what you're doing, it's just always interesting to just get a window into,
33:30
you know, your purview on things and what you're willing to bet, what you're willing to lay on, "Oh, d- this guy not to win a tournament," maybe drift over to exchanges doing it. Rufus Peabody, everybody.
33:40
Well, you asked who I like, though. I think it, I'm, I'm seeing the odds out there. Yeah. I think I have a small edge on Matsuyama 40 to 1. There we go. We got one out of him. Thank you, Rufus. Appreciate it.
33:49
We'll recap all the bets next.
A Numbers Game
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