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Aug 14, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 14, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 14, 2024
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44:24
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So many ways to take us in. Guess what? We don't care which way you do, we just appreciate that you do.
0:20
It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine. So much more than a producer, so much more. Sap- So much more. What's happening, man? You good? I'm good, man. How are you? Uh, I am, uh, I am fabuloso.
0:33
On the show today, we didn't have Drew Dinsick in his normal Tuesday spot yesterday, so he is with us today. Travel day for Drew. Well, let him t- uh, dr- travel day. Where was he going? Is he, uh- I have no idea...
0:42
his, his day job travel? Oh, good point. Maybe we get Drew in the nature today. I don't know. Oh, that's true. We could get him in the nature. Yeah. In nature. Um, we have had him in all kinds of- We really have...
0:51
natural habitats. You name it, he's been there. Yeah, the last time was, like, on a work site location, right? Mountains, work site, beaches. In the middle of California. Yeah, he leads a good life.
1:00
We'll let him, we'll let him take a victory lap for his Olympics, and then we'll get his thoughts on the NFL and tennis, um, which I have my, uh, picks coming up here momentarily.
1:08
Will Hill with all his plays, MLB and more, and then Steve Fezzik again. What? Do we book him two weeks in a row? Tell, don't tell Patrick and Dustin. We'll, we'll let him- Yeah... we'll, we're just borrowing him.
1:19
Just borrowing him. Just borrowing him. Uh, but we have lots of stuff to talk with Fezzik about. He will be here on the desk at the D here at Bar Canada. Uh, so looking forward to that.
1:28
Fezzik in the house a little later on. Kelly will talk F- uh, FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first of the three FedEx tournaments. 70 golfers qualifying for the s- for the, uh, FedEx St.
1:38
Jude, so we'll get into that as well. I do wanna start where I start, uh, every day here on the Numbers Game, when the tennis tours are in North America. Yesterday, gave out five plays. We went three and two.
1:51
That included a, uh, plus 187 winner and a plus 165 winner on, um, Ashlyn Kruger and Jordan Thompson respectively. So again, Kelly, I say as my New Year's resolution, please remind me. Um, we are, we're now up 40...
2:08
Uh, let me get this right. 42, more than 42 units. Do I have that right? Yes. More than 42 units on hard courts this year, and since the Olympics started, which is clay, so throw that in, over 16 units.
2:26
So again, I just ask you, please tell me not to bet grass next year. [laughs] You got it. Because most of that went back- Yeah, yeah, yeah [laughs]... in grass. That's it.
2:34
Same thing, 'cause I'm on a couple year streak with the NBA. When the playoffs start- Yes... just, like, take my phone away. Talk about betting leaks. Yeah. That has become my betting leak.
2:42
Um, three today, and ladies and gentlemen, as a preview to what we will do during the United States Open, I ask my friend Kelly Bidlin if he would please pronounce the tennis plays for today. Oh, man.
2:53
See, see, this is where you guys, you f- guys think you're tricky. You think you can get me, but Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova. Nice. No problem, okay? Beatriz Haddad Maia. See, I don't even need the full beast on that.
3:05
Okay, but let's, let's give the prices, too. So Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova, minus 141. Minus 141. If you're a VSiN subscriber, you get these last night, vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport.
3:16
She's about minus 146 now. She's a little, uh, worse off. I wouldn't let it get any higher than that. All right, and then we got Xinyu Wang- I think-... ov- plus 178 over Ludmilla Samsonova.
3:30
Uh, it's, I think we go Wang Xinyu, and I think we go Samsonova. Oh, sure. Okay. Yeah, absolutely. By the way, you can still play her. I got her plus 178. She's still up there in price. Not quite as high, but up there.
3:40
All right, and then, uh, I'm not gonna go long A here. I think this is a Fabian Marozsan. This one I definitely... I don't know these two dudes at all. [laughs] Fabian Marozsan over Corentin Moutet. Moutet.
3:54
Fabian Marozsan, Corentin Moutet. I was pretty close. Corentin Moutet. I'll give myself a pass on that one. Fabian Marozsan is Hungarian. You said- I, that, hey, I got that part right, though. Yeah. Not a Fabian.
4:05
He's not a Fabian. You did, but you, you went Marozan. [laughs] All right, so the picks again. Pavlyuchenkova minus 141 over Beatriz Haddad Maia. She's a little worse than that now.
4:16
Don't play it any higher than the minus 146 where she's at. Uh, Wang Xinyu plus 178, uh, over Ludmilla Samsonova. You could still play her at the, uh, slightly less bang for your buck price.
4:26
And then I actually got the worst of this one. You can get it at a much better price on Fabian Marozsan. I think it's closer to a coin flip than where I got it last night.
4:34
So we got the worst of the CLV, one of those rare times where we didn't get the best of it here. Those are the three, uh, tennis plays. By the way, Zach Cohen has his tennis plays at vsin.com as well.
4:45
Corentin Moutet is a cool name. Corent- Moutet? Corentin Moutet. He's French. Yeah, that, that's a cool name. Yeah. Kinda cool.
4:51
We're gonna- I gotta give props to a name after, after, uh, we crushed, uh, poor Asterisk yesterday. Oh, yeah, you, you felt bad about it. I called him a terrible first name, yeah. You felt bad about it. I felt bad.
4:59
It's probably, like- Yeah... a family name or something that's terrible. By the way, these pronunciations remind me of, uh, s- uh, my first year in Spanish class, seventh grade Spanish.
5:06
[laughs] Uh, we were going around conjugating verbs, and this kid Del Outman was sitting next to me, and the teacher, you know, going around, "You served," "You did whatever," you know, imperfect tense, whatever.
5:14
And he goes to Del Outman, and he, the teacher goes, "We worked."
5:17
And then, uh, Del Outman looked around the class, and he goes, ah, he's thinking about it, and he goes, ah, and he was so sure of himself, and he goes- [laughs]...
5:25
with a smile on his face, he goes, "Nosotros trava- jabamos." [laughs] We died. [laughs] Oh, that's awesome. Nosotros trava-jabamos. Oh my God, it was fantastic.
5:43
Anyway, uh, so the big news in the NFL, J.J. McCarthy, he didn't tell anybody while this was h- [laughs] while this was happening the other night, trava-jabamos. Oh.
5:52
He didn't tell anybody that he, that he kinda got hurt. Um, and so after the game, he had a great performance as we talked about in the Vikings', uh, preseason debut for the, uh, Vikings' first round draft pick, J.J.
6:03
McCarthy. Turns out he needs meniscus surgery, and the thing with meniscus is it's a blood flow thing, and so they don't know until they go in where And to what extent the meniscus is harmed.
6:18
And so only when they go in will we learn if he is out for a short period of time or for the entire season. It's always fascinating.
6:25
I was hearing more about that yesterday too, and it's, they also, all of that, plus because of that, they don't know how much repair work and what type of repair work is necessary- Yeah... till they get in there.
6:37
So I, yeah, it's very fascinating and, uh, we have to wait and see, I guess. We have to wait and see. And if he can't go, he wasn't supposed to start week one, but you did feel like he would start eventually. Yes.
6:47
And so the Vikings depth chart, for those wondering, is Sam Darnold, as you know, as the number one.
6:52
But then it would be, would be, if McCarthy can't go, um, Nick Mullens, who [laughs] you know, it's like what a career he has forged- Yeah... as an NFL backup. Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall.
7:04
Jaren Hall is your third string. I was thinking about those guys yesterday. Yeah.
7:07
Because they were, the Vikings were kind of one of those teams I had circled to bet on look preseason because of that depth at quarterback.
7:13
Um, but you know, you're kind of thinking all along, well, one of those guys isn't gonna make it through camp, whether it's Jaren Hall or, or Nick Mullens, uh, with them having bo- both Darnold and McCarthy.
7:23
But man, both those guys probably will now. I, I mean Ja- Jaren Hall might have just gotten another chance with the Vikings after we saw some pretty...
7:30
What, what did he play, like three quarters last year or something in one of those games? Yeah, I think he got in for a few quarters Looked, looked terrible. Yeah. Yeah.
7:36
And, and then the other thing, uh, well first of all, does this make you feel differently about the Vikings? Sam Darnold was supposed to be the week one starter anyway, but it kind of makes me feel different about them.
7:44
It, it does. Yeah. For me it does. Me too. I'm not, I'm not one of these- 'Cause I expected him to c- to play at some point. Me too. So I mean, I've never been super down on this Vikings team.
7:55
I also feel like there's others we've talked to that have been very high on them, where I'm not n- I'm not super high on this team, but I think if you were high on this team this year. Am I high on this team?
8:05
I mean, going over their win total, actually competing for a playoff spot, right? Right. Right.
8:08
I think if you were high on this team this year, you were thinking like we were that McCarthy's coming in at some point, right? I don't think that season long handicap is based off of Sam Darnold. No.
8:19
And we'll see if, again, if it's season ending or if he, he's only gonna be out for a short period of time. But if it were season ending, it would make me feel a little different about them.
8:27
I'll tell you again, let's go back to seven days ago. But, but you're also right. Like if he's out eight weeks, does it matter at all? I don't know that it matters at all. Right.
8:34
It might have been, that might have been the game plan the whole time anyways. And we have to wait till the results of the surgery before we know any answers.
8:40
What, what obviously mattered more in terms of your perception of a team, or at least to me it did, a week ago, uh, when you were off, I talked about the whole Brandon Aiyuk thing with San Francisco.
8:49
And at that time, uh, Matt Maiocco reported that Brandon Aiyuk, there was a f- there was a deal, a framework was in place for a deal for the Niners with Brandon Aiyuk with the Browns and the Patriots both, and that it was up to Aiyuk to decide.
9:05
And I mentioned, and I, I retweeted the video of me, of me talking about it last week. I mentioned in that video, I'm like, "But here's the thing about all this.
9:12
The Niners and/or Aiyuk can still decide they want to, they want to make a deal themselves." Mm-hmm.
9:18
And it looks like now a week later, it feels like cooler heads have prevailed, and that the only team out there where a quote unquote framework is in place for a deal is the Steelers of all teams, not the Patriots or the, or the, uh, Browns.
9:33
But that the Niners and Aiyuk may be closer than even that to coming to a deal themselves.
9:40
And the reason that this obviously is big to me is because, I went through this last week, the Niners window is this year and next year, period. Period, as the kids say. Right? That's it.
9:52
Because th- after that, that's when you have to pay Brock Purdy.
9:55
And once you pay Brock Purdy money, then you've gotta make economic decisions elsewhere that are not gonna have as, as great of a football team around you, right? This is what we always say about winning Super Bowls.
10:04
Surround yourself with a, uh, with quar- surround a quarterback who's overperforming on a rookie deal or have a Hall of Famer. Well, obviously, uh, Brock Purdy falls into the first category, and once that's over, uh-oh.
10:15
So I don't know, I want you to lean in for this, Kelly. The object of all of this, you ready for this? Is to win a Super Bowl. And so if you lose a piece like Brandon Aiyuk,
10:27
and a lot of people say, "Well, he's not the key cog in the wheel," you don't know. If you're not watching all 22, you don't w- you don't really know the chicken and the egg on every play.
10:35
You know, is he creating the space for Kittle- Absolutely. Right... and Deebo? Correct. Or are they creating the space for him? We don't know this answer. Mm-hmm.
10:43
Um, I used to say that about when Kirk Cousins played for Washington. Is it Deshaun Jackson creating the room for Jordan Reed underneath? Like you don't really know unless you can analyze the footage.
10:51
That's, that's almost always been a thing with any- Yes... any great offense with multiple receivers, right? That's absolutely right.
10:57
It's, it's both o- Yes, they're all individually talented, but yes, they're also creating s- they're creating separation and space and distracting defenses because of their ability.
11:06
So I think given the window and given what the object of all this is, to win a Super Bowl, and this just in, the Niners have still not done so with this current group. I think they'd be nuts to let Brandon Aiyuk go.
11:18
Yeah, me too. So- Me too. It does, uh, I mean these, these reports are weird, right? 'Cause we don't see this like in other sports. [laughs] Like the fact that reportedly Steelers and 49ers have a deal in place. Yeah.
11:28
Yet the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk are talking off to the side. And I don't think heart of hearts, I don't think he ever wanted to leave. He just wanted his money.
11:34
I just can't believe your first reaction wasn't like mine, and it was, "Sure, the Steelers, absolutely. We total under th-" [laughs] Kelly has walked off the set. Drew Dincic is next.
11:46
Uh, we'll give him an Olympics victory lap and his NFL thoughts next. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Hey, uh, Kelly, uh, we're in town, so when you do a contest you don't need a proxy, but those that are not in town do. Say what? Yeah, man, it's true. And you know what we prefer? Winners Circle Proxy, uh, here at VSiN.
12:13
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12:44
So head over to winnerscircleproxy.com now and book your appointment. Again, that's winnerscircleproxy.com, VSiN's preferred proxy partner. Why are you, why are you looking at me like... Oh, sorry. Sorry.
12:58
I thought you were... I thought you were staring at me. [laughs] Uh, we get tweets that beat to the book. Pulling up golf notes. Sorry. [laughs] Sorry. Mr. Bob Apple. Mr. Bob Apple. Mr. Bob Apple? That's what he says.
13:07
He says, uh, "Gents, when is Todd coming back for content? Nothing makes me happier than Gil beating Todd up as he constantly interrupts. Also, Todd's announcer voices are gold.
13:18
I also wonder if Todd resembles a younger version of, uh, famed comedic actor John Lovitz. Cheers." He also adds, "Thanks again for the tennis profits. I owe you a McMuffin- John Lovitz. [laughs]...
13:27
when I'm out there for Labor Day." John Lovitz. I don't know why that's funny, but- That's the ticket... they could be cousins. They c- they could be cousins. I could see that. What are you, what are you trying to say?
13:36
I could see that. Um, Todd Wischnev is who he's referring to, and Todd will be with us on the Megapod, on the Beating the Book Megapod every week.
13:42
Me, Todd, Will Hill, every Thursday before every week, um, we're on with a rotating guest, some of the best names in the industry, uh, doing week by week analysis on all the games. I was stupid good last year.
13:57
Two, by the way, we have our own contest, three plays a, a year. Oh yeah, that was funny last year, right? I mean, not funny though. Oh, I crushed last year. 'Cause you, you crushed- Crushed...
14:05
but then, like, s- you got extended to five for Circa Millions, and... And that's exactly right. [laughs] That's where, that's where I was going. So if it was a... It was... If Circa Millions were a three-game contest,
14:15
I, I would cash without question. But once it goes to four and five, I fall off a cliff. It's that fifth game every week for me. That's, that's the problem with those contests. That's why it's so difficult.
14:25
Um, so Todd says, by the way, since I was so good last year, he's like, "Fade Gilley." He's like, "He's gonna get crushed this year." That's his, that's his prediction. So we're gonna do that, and I wanna...
14:32
I'm, I'm, I'm trying to convince Todd to do something additional with me. I can't really talk about it yet because he hasn't agreed to it. Todd is a tough guy to get to agree to stuff, 'cause, you know,
14:44
he's big time, so we'll see. Uh, this is from, uh, this is from Skateboarding Is a Crime. "Pretty sure it's Fabian Maruchan." Sorry, I said Maruchan. My apologies. Um, "Three Jack, H3131.
14:58
Snagged a Diamondbacks number one seed this morning at 22 to one. That's good, right? Uh, who is your week one survivor pick? Have a great day, guys."
15:05
I do not have a week one survivor play yet, but as far as the Di- The Bengals. The Bengals? Is that yours? I haven't played, I haven't played it yet, but it's definitely, it's definitely, uh, on the shortlist.
15:13
Matt Brown, Matt Brown pronounces Bengals incorrectly. Yeah, the Bengals. The Bengals. Did, did you get a tweet phonetically? Is that what that was? Yes, a phonetic tweet. Okay. Said Maruchan, yeah.
15:21
That's, that's pretty impressive. By the way, did you see the Diamondbacks last night? They refused to lose. Down a run heading into the ninth, one out, Corbin Carroll with the triple, of course, then a strikeout.
15:34
So two down, man on third, a walk, a walk, so bases juiced, two out, down one, and Jake McCarthy with a two RBI walk-off, and the D-backs win again. Yes, 22 to one is great.
15:46
By the way, when I was giving the number yesterday on air, FanDuel didn't have it up for number one seed, only DraftKings did. So I got a much worse number. I got 12 to one, but it was 24 to one.
15:55
It was double at FanDuel, so I got a little of that too. Not quite as much as I did on the 12 to one. Um, this is from Justifolo Vsin, who I believe we met recently.
16:06
Uh, "My father-in-law played defense in the NFL for seven seasons. I thought I understood the game and could watch all 22. All I keep learning every game we watch together is how little I really see.
16:18
Your take on Aiyuk's value is so spot on. We just don't truly know." He adds, "Maybe." We'll see. Maybe it's- Right, right. [laughs] Maybe you're right. Maybe, maybe it isn't right. Maybe, maybe he's the product of it.
16:29
Um, Clone Bone, "Earthquake starts. Kelly stiff-arms Gil to get out of the building first. What does Kelly's arm swing look like now as he runs out of the building?" Oh my gosh, like never before.
16:37
Yeah, we love you, Kelly. Like never... I mean, like, we're like, we're up here at that point. [laughs] Like, like Mario style. Knocking folks out. [laughs] All right, let's talk some golf. The FedEx St.
16:48
Jude Classic in full effect. These are the, uh, 70 guys that qualified now. This is the first of the three tournament arc that is the FedEx Cup itself.
17:00
70 gets cut down to 50 at the BMW, then we go 30 for the actual, uh, third and final tournament, which is always in Atlanta. What do you got here at the FedEx St. Jude, sir?
17:09
Yeah, uh, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna start with a initial note that, uh, Matt Brown had after, right after we were done recording long shots, and he said, "By the way, guys, thank God Keith Mitchell isn't in this field."
17:19
Oh. And, and completely agree. Keith Mitchell, take the rest of the summer off. Thank God. Like, work on the putter a little bit.
17:25
Maybe we can come back stronger next year, 'cause your ball striking numbers were, uh, messing with my brain the whole time. This, this is a commentary on how much your model spits out Keith Mitchell.
17:33
Uh, he, uh, like he was, he was a...
17:35
Look, I- I'll, I'll have to go back at the end of the season and look at all my numbers, but for a long time, w- one of the few things that was working well beginning of the season were Keith Mitchell top 20s and Xander Schauffele top 10s, and then, like, the putter went from bad to, like, the worst thing on the planet with Keith Mitchell, and he became very difficult to handicap.
17:53
So we'll start right there. Thank you, uh, Keith Mitchell for not being here. What, what percentage of the audience when we say Keith Mitchell immediately thinks of former San Francisco Giant great Kevin Mitchell?
18:02
80% Yeah, probably Yeah, okay Yeah, probably something like that Nice Um, yeah, so you hit it. We got 70 guys here, no cut event, so we'll be all four rounds, everybody hanging around, uh, for this.
18:12
Um, my card pretty light this week. I'm gonna... I do wanna follow up something we talked about yesterday, though.
18:18
This is usually always great to look at tho- We, remember we were talking about to win the FedEx m- uh, uh- Yes... Cup market? Yes. Oh, boy.
18:25
I did a deeper dive into that, though, and looked at the points and the standings. Schof- Sh- Scheffler and Schauffele have such- Are so far ahead... a big lead.
18:34
Yes That, like, I am gonna, I am- It's not as fun this year... I am backing down a little bit from what I said the other day.
18:38
I actually did bet Morikawa, but I kind of did it before I looked at that [laughs] stuff too closely. Morikawa, along with everybody else in the field, would have to win- Yeah...
18:47
and they'd still be behind where those guys are in the standings. So I think it's- It was our biggest omission from that conversation. Yeah, I th- Yeah... I think that if you are...
18:56
Look, if you think there, there's a guy that's gonna win here over the next two weeks that's more of a long shot, yeah, sure.
19:02
If you wanna play in, a, a guy in that market, fine, because maybe he's only starting two s- two or three strokes behind Scheffler or Schauffele, but you have a 90 to 1 on him, great.
19:12
Maybe that's the only way I'd consider it. This year, though, I'd probably pump the brakes on that market and kind of ignore it. Unle- unless you're just going with Scheffler.
19:18
"Hey, you think Scheffler's just gonna win the thing," uh, which he easily could. Uh, but you're getting not even even money on that right now.
19:25
And again, part of that, for those who missed it, is in the third tournament here, it's a s- it's a staggered leaderboard to begin. Correct. Yes. So you're already getting strokes. Yeah, so, so really the...
19:34
If you were able to grab the third spot, like if you're already slotting in Scheffler or Schauffele, but you- You got a puncher's chance at that point... yeah, but you knew your guy was 80 to 1- Right...
19:42
three shots back, that'd be cool. That's a bet. Yeah, but, like- Yeah... I don't know if you want, like, my Morikawa ticket at 16 to 1, three, you know, three shots back.
19:50
So, um, as far as what I did this week, like, I think if you guys are at home looking at stats modeling this event, this is actually one of the easier ones to look at. Uh, there's a lot of water.
19:58
That's where the variance comes into this tournament. But otherwise, you're looking for pr- uh, premium, uh, drivers. Accuracy off the tee is gonna be a big, uh, big time thing this week. You need heavy approach.
20:08
This is one of the most ap- uh, approach correlated courses on the PGA tour, so you're looking at guys that are great with their irons, anywhere between 125 to 200 yards. Um, really important proximity ranges this week.
20:20
Uh, you got small greens. Around the green play is gonna come in, into play. You're gonna look at guys who can scramble and around the green a little bit. I didn't really look at putting too much this week.
20:27
You got smaller greens here. These are always talked about as some of the easier greens to putt on. Um, so I kind of knocked all that, all my putting stats, uh, out of my models this week.
20:36
So re- again, really, really looking at accurate drivers, good approach players. Um, Collin Morikawa is my only outright bet this week that I made.
20:45
I think that there is so much win equity at the top of the board at this poi- at this point in the season.
20:49
Gil, I know we talk about that a lot, but how well, how well Scheffler, Schauffele, Rory, especially those three, but I'll even throw Morikawa in there, how well all four of those guys have played, and have done it pretty dang consistently- Yes...
21:01
the entire year. Yes. It is tough to argue in a s- like, a 70-man field with no cut that not, that one of those guys isn't gonna be around there at the end of the week I, I, I think is, is tough to go against.
21:13
I'm only going with Morikawa, one outright play for me this week. Shop around. I got 14 to 1. I played him in the outright market at 14 to 1. I also played him 11 to 1 without Scot- to win without Scottie Scheffler.
21:24
So you're gonna see a lot of 12s out there. If you can go 11 to 1 and knock Scheffler out of the, out of the market, I think that's a no-brainer and you bet that d- uh, as well. So went Morikawa outright and then top 10.
21:36
Um, and then top 20 is on a few guys I like this week. Corey Conners I've been, been betting a couple times here recently. His game's really come around this summer. T-9 at the Olympics.
21:44
He's got eight straight top 30 finishes going back before that. Uh, and at this course, T-6 and T-28 the last two years, so has played pretty well here. Like a top 20 on him. Like Tom Kim this week as well.
21:55
Played him in top 10 and top 20 markets. Uh, eighth at the Olympics. Couple good runs here over the past couple years as well. Sungjaim, I'm interested.
22:03
That's a smaller bet for me on the top 20, but his game's been turning around a little bit. Uh, and then some match-ups. Brian Harman over Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim over Russell Henley, and Tony Finau over Billy Horschel.
22:15
Love it. Love it. Which I think I'm gonna add to that one, Finau this week. Do you love yourself some, uh, Billy Horschel as well? Not quite as much as Keith Mitchell. I like... No, I like Fade Billy Horschel.
22:24
I don't think, uh- Oh, really? Oh, well. He's had a couple good tournaments in a row here, and I, I don't think it's going forward. Will Hill joins us on the other side with all his, his bets.
22:31
He, of course, is the host of the Wish I Had Wagered an Additional Mount podcast, but Now I Have Regrets. That's on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:42
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Steve Fezzik doesn't need a proxy 'cause he's in town, but if you're out of town, gotta come here before the season to sign up for these.
22:51
But then once the season starts and you're back to your house, back wherever in the United States or beyond, you need a proxy. Winners Circle Proxy is VSiN's preferred proxy partner.
22:59
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23:07
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23:15
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23:30
So head over to winnerscircleproxy.com now and book your appointment. Again, that's winnerscircleproxy.com, VSiN's preferred proxy partner. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, Steve Fezzik kind enough to hang out with us. Um,
23:43
what did I want to say about this? Oh, remember that documentary? Did I t- talk about this yesterday, Kelly, at all? The documentary that's supposed to come out about last year's Survivor contest, remember?
23:54
Oh, we started talking about it. We started, and then we just- I don't think we-... and then we just went off because he-... 'cause I don't know that you- Yeah... or I heard you say those words- No, it's a funny-...
24:00
that it is coming out finally. So, so I said, "It is coming out." And I said, [laughs] "That's funny." I feel like you guys shot, like, three of them for, like, 400 hours, and, uh, none of it got used, but.
24:09
Brian, Brian Musburger says to me, he goes, "It's either gonna be on Netflix or on VSiN," he said. [laughs]No difference there. [laughs] That's what he said to me. So we'll see. I, we're looking forward to see.
24:21
Todd Wishnev is part of it, so I'm excited to see his, uh- There you go. Same audience size, both of those websites. [laughs] Either Netflix or Amazon. Uh, Steve Fezzik kind enough to, uh, hang with us.
24:32
We talked, uh, week two preseason about the Dr. Bob thing, which is if you're coming off a loss versus if a team coming off a win. Steve, if you could repeat those five games, 'cause we did them real quick at the end.
24:40
Yeah. Cleveland, uh, these are the teams. Yeah. So these are your betting teams, so the Browns, uh, Washington, Carolina, the Chargers, and the 49ers.
24:49
Now I always have a personal bias with this trend to play the underdogs, and that of course would land you on Carolina and the 49ers. Okay, Carolina and 49ers. The other three were Cleveland, Washington, and?
25:02
The Chargers. The Chargers. But Carolina and Washington fit your, fit your, uh, optimal. Okay. I'm always trying to, like, reverse engineer the Dr. Bob secret subset, you know?
25:13
Well- Seems like the dogs were more, you know, powerful.
25:16
He's, he's the w- he's the guy, just for, for those who don't know what Steve is referring to, he will give you a set, uh, from, again, he has the, he has the Buckeye database.
25:23
So Bob does his handicapping two ways, uh, in tandem. One is his mathematical model, which is all his layers that he's put together through the years, taken in, taken out, like tried and true.
25:35
And then he does what he calls, [clears throat] pardon me, technical analysis, which is a fancy way of saying trends. And most people, and we're not a trend show, but most people, they get upset about trends.
25:44
But Bob has the Buckeye database, which goes back to 1978. And some trends, n- nothing is black and white, nothing's 100% on this, some trends make intuitive sense.
25:54
And when you talk about preseason from week one to week two, that actually does make some sense. And so, uh, we, we like to highlight it.
26:01
The other thing we, we referenced to you earlier in the week about week two is you texted this immediately. You banged all the overs. Yes. Uh- Explain. Well, two things going on.
26:12
So I know week two in preseason pre-COVID, and it should be post-COVID, is gonna be higher scoring. It just makes sense.
26:18
Uh, the defenses are ahead of the offenses, and oftentimes the starters don't play at all that first preseason game, or at most they play one series. So what's this?
26:28
I wake up all groggy Monday morning, and I'm looking at the totals, and they're anywhere from 33 to 37. I'm like, "It's just too low."
26:37
Um, now subsequently I did the research, but I didn't have time to do the research, so I j- I banged, I played every game over because, uh, I was busy. And I was like, "The numbers are wrong. I'm just gonna hammer it."
26:46
And so I got down, but I went back and looked. So last year, uh, there was the point of demarcation was 39 and a half. Half the games went over 39 and a half, half of them went under 39 and a half.
26:56
This is week two preseason. So think about this. Even with these totals having risen up, every total now is still sub 40. Every single one. They vary from 33, the Charger game- Yeah... up to 39 and a half.
27:08
Half of them went over the 39 and a half. Now, there were four that were fiddling in the middle, 36, 36, 38, 39, and there were four of the games, one fourth of the games just dead nut unders 32 or less.
27:19
So the bottom line is even at the current numbers, with the new kickoff rules, which I personally have forecasted it's gonna increase scoring not three points, but by one and a half points.
27:29
I heard you talking to Drew about this. Uh, the field position is going to be significantly and, and help the, the, the team, you know, receiving a kickoff.
27:37
The problem with that is that even if you say it's worth an extra third of a point on that possession to get the ball on the 30 on average or close to it, um, and you multiply by 10 kickoffs, you'd say that's 3.3 points.
27:49
Well, it's only worth that if you score on the drive. If you punt, it's a negative expectation because now the other team gets worse field position. So you really have to dial that back considerably from that 3.3.
28:00
Okay, so this is a nice little preseason microcosm.
28:03
But once we get to the regular season, again, we talked to Drew about this earlier, how many weeks, assuming you feel like it's going, that they're, the books are not gonna be up to snuff right from the beginning on this, how many weeks do you think it will take for the market to get in line with what totals ought to be pre-flop?
28:21
What a, what a great question, and I have to caveat the answer. It depends. And what does it depend on?
28:26
The preseason this week and next week, because we've had a situation where almost 75% of the games went over the total week one presea- um, under the total. We had a very low scoring first week.
28:39
If that happens again, the books are gonna be very slow to catch up. All right?
28:43
If we have, like, all heck breaks loose, which I hope it does this week, and we have a really high scoring week two of preseason, you're gonna see pressure on a lot of the games week one of the regular season, and they're gonna start to get hit over immediately.
28:56
Okay, so that, that then begs this question: Would you rather cash big this week doing your overs, or would you rather take a smaller hit just so that you can exploit it greater come regular season? I'd rather
29:12
take the money right now. Take the money right now. And, and, and here's why. The problem is that I, I directionally I agree completely with Drew, but I don't like banging week one and week two overs.
29:20
It's historically it's a lower scoring time in the NFL. Yeah. I think, I think the c- the really clever way to get at this is look at these games of the year where there's totals up and bet overs in October and November.
29:32
Yeah. Now, I know you're tying up your money. By the way, could I borrow some money? I'm [laughs] kinda, kinda, kinda all in with a whole bunch of bets already.
29:40
Um, but I think if, uh, like back with what, uh, Drew said, I think if you played every game the first week of November over, I'm much more confident you're gonna win than playing every game week one over.
29:51
It's gonna be very interesting with this. It's gonna be very interesting to see. Books were slow to react, though, last year, right, on when it was all the unders coming in, right, Steve?
29:59
I mean, that was, I mean, that was pretty shocking last year when it was, it felt like under, under, under every week we were seeing. It's, it's a great point about how the, how it started last year.
30:07
Also, remember there was a...
30:09
And, and we hate to do this 'cause we wait all year for football season and so we feel terrible about making this comment, but remember early in the season last year, I don't know if it was weeks two and three or three and four, but we actually came in here on a Monday And it was kind of universally agreed upon.
30:24
I remember Drew was saying, "Oh, yeah, you're absolutely right." There was a couple Sundays where it actually felt like work watching those games, 'cause the games were so bad.
30:33
If I recall, the grand salami, where you bet the total points- Yeah... it was like every week was going under. Yeah. Week after- Why? Yeah... even into week five, six, seven.
30:42
And, and to give the bookmakers credit, um, you know, the public loves betting over, so it's not unusual just by even the pros are betting unders, they're still, they're, you know, look- They're still cleaning up...
30:53
parlay liability. Yeah. Think about every parlay is gonna lose on totals from the public, and they're just making, making profits left and right. Did you want to, uh, tell folks about this?
31:04
This is a little off subject, but you, you, you, you wanna talk about exploiting promotions. Yeah. You had an experience. And, and stacking promotions. I love stacking multiple promotions. Uh, let me give an example.
31:16
So I got back from Lake Tahoe. Love Lake Tahoe. So went up there. I'm a Seven Star, um, at Caesars, so- The sky is so clear in Lake Tahoe. Oh, the water's so clear. I know. Ugh.
31:26
And so you get a retreat, and on the retreat you get airfare up to $1,200. So of course the family flies Business Select, $1,199 [laughs]. Uh, they pick you up in a limo. It's all part of your annual retreat.
31:39
So you limo... I, I mean, who needs a limo in Vegas? I mean, maybe Derek Stevens will send me one, but I doubt it. Um, maybe if I'm with GRP, you know, with George, he would. Um, but I limo from Reno to Tahoe.
31:50
Now that is value. I mean, that's a, that's a good hour trip. Um- That's an hour drive? Wow. Oh, at least. Yeah.
31:57
And the, uh, a- and you get a $500 food credit, so we hate, ate at Hell's Kitchen, and a Friday station, and a Sage room overlooking the lake. You know, used the $500 up.
32:07
But we're going there, all right, we're gonna use a retreat 10 time tier credit. I, I wanna keep my Seven Star, so s- 10 time tier credit. Um, normally if you put through, you know, you know, $20,000, you get 2,000...
32:19
On a video poker machine, you get 2,000 in tier credits. Now you get 20,000 in tier credits again, so you stack. You do everything to, um, to take advantage of, um, m- of promos like that more, more than one at a time.
32:32
This is a, uh, personal question. I hope you don't mind that I'm asking in front of, uh, all these listeners, but, uh, does your wife ever say to you, uh, "Stevie," I assume she calls you Stevie sometimes. No, never?
32:42
Um, does she say, "Stevie, um, can we take a proper vacation where actual money comes out of your pocket as an expression of love to me? Like, enough of this exploiting, you know, the, the holes in the system- Wow...
32:55
so that we can enjoy our lives. I want a true expression of romance." We went to Disney, Disney World- Yeah...
33:02
in Orlando, and we went to Universal Studios in Orlando, so we had a, a mega super expensive vacation, nothing comped.
33:09
Is part of this, though, what, what we were talking about earlier, where it's like, "Hey, uh, honey, let's have this great trip, uh, because for the next four months I'm not gonna be available"?
33:16
You know, the Whale Capper nailed that one. He did nail that one. He, he, he, he, uh- He did nail that one... he's on top of that. Uh, but Stevie does have a bone to pick with the Whale Capper.
33:26
Uh, we'll talk about that on the other side. Oh. It's a Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:31
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It is a Numbers Game.
33:45
Live from Bar Canada at the D, Gil Alexander, Kelly Pidlin, and Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest in history, uh, kind enough to join us.
33:53
He's usually on Sharp Money with Patrick Maher and Dustin Sweetolson. We're borrowing him here in the, uh, preseason. W- first of all, I wanna congratulate you.
34:01
You went two entire segments without mentioning that you and I played tennis yesterday. Um, we played two of what we call our sets, up to 21. It was 17-17 in the first.
34:11
I, of course, then coughed up the next four points and Stevie beat me. And then in the- But the wind broke. Oh, it was really windy out there. Wind. And he- You had to battle through the elements...
34:19
and, and Fezzik, 'cause he's game theory, right? He got the, he got the good side on the second half of that.
34:24
[laughs] Uh, but then the second game, uh, I had a match point on him, 20 to 19, and of course I, I completely gagged it and he beat me 20 to 21. Is he earning his money on these games? No. No.
34:34
But he's, what a gracious man. He didn't bring it up. Yeah, he didn't. He's, he's about- He's still got it... he's about to be not gracious with some other people, though. Before I do that- Yeah...
34:41
um, for all those who might be still, uh, not just young at heart, but young- Yeah... uh, I'm on the wrong side of 60, so every time I can play tennis with Gilly or my son- Yes, yes...
34:51
it's, I appreciate it to, d- and, and Gilly sees me, like, like, literally, like, I'm slumped against the fence when I'm done. It's like I'm spent. I asked him afterwards, "When is the next time we're playing?"
35:00
He goes, "I have no idea." [laughs] I, I go on the DL, like, like, like, after each match.
35:05
So, um, if you, um, if you're still able-bodied and you want an excuse, like you're in your 40s, you know, it's like, like, hey, you know, time passes you by, and one- you blink, and all of a sudden you're not gonna be able to do the things that you wanna do, so take advantage.
35:18
Uh, real- Did, did Steve just say he's older than 60? Yeah, he is. Oh, God. Look at that hair. Full head of hair. Older than 60. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
35:26
Um, real quick before we get back to you, Steve, uh, because we, I teased this earlier. MLB best record, you can actually bet this at, uh, DraftKings and other places. Uh, Dodgers are the short shot, plus 180.
35:36
Yankees plus 275. Orioles plus 370. Phillies plus 450. Everybody that you would think would be at the top. The Guardians are plus 750.
35:45
By the way, if you look at the current MLB standings, uh, and again, just about a quarter of the year, we're at the quarter pole, almost exactly at the quarter pole as the, uh, teams round the bend here.
35:55
If you look at the standings right now, it's kind of a scrum at the top. Um, and now my computer's not working, so I can give you the exact numbers on these.
36:04
Um, but if I'm betting this, Kelly, I go deeper down and I go to the Arizona Diamondbacks at- 45 to 1. I fully endorse this one. Yes. And think about how good this is.
36:18
If you, you could bet Arizona to win the division, and I, I imagine the number, Kelly, maybe you could look it up, is around eight to one. All right?
36:25
If you told me right now, correlated parlay, you can par- or how likely is it if C- if Arizona wins their division, they'll have the best record in baseball, I would literally say 50/50. 50/50. I would s- I agree. Yeah.
36:38
Something, somewhere around that.
36:39
Because if they catch the Dodgers and they beat the Padres, they're gonna be like 20, it's gonna take like 24 games above 500, and I think that's gonna be sufficient to beat the Yankees, and beat the Orioles, and beat every- Yeah...
36:51
I don't think any of these teams are gonna get m- th- that's kind of the baseline of where they're gonna, they're gonna get to like 96 wins. Absolutely. Diamondbacks.
36:57
Right, right, right now, yeah, it's Dodgers 71 and 49. Sorry, Kelly, were you about to just say this? I'm sorry. No, s- eight to one to win the division. You were spot on with that, Steve.
37:05
And then they have the 11th toughest remaining schedule. 11th toughest remaining schedule, but here's where it stands now. D- Dodgers 71 and 49, Guardians 71 and 49, Yankees and Orioles both...
37:16
Oh, excuse me, Yankees 71 and 50, Orioles 70 and 50, Philly 69 and 50. Those are the best teams. You know what the Diamondbacks are? 68 and 53. We have a quarter of the season left. 45 to one? Give me that. I like it.
37:28
I like it. All right. Sorry about that. Uh, all right. So, uh, Drew came on earlier and, uh, we were talking about Jayden Daniels, and, uh, you were not happy about this conversation. Yeah, well, here's what happens.
37:40
When you're in the media, you're paid to have opinions on things. All right? So Drew has an excellent opinion. Jayden Daniels with style and played very well. He's on top of it.
37:48
We wanna be looking to invest in Jayden Daniels. Fantastic, and I know you just invested in Jayden Daniels. I did. There was a stray number here. Yes. So you grabbed seven to one.
37:57
Seven to one Jayden Daniels Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now, there are, there's been a move at a lot of books, and they're as low as plus 450. Plus 450. And you asked Drew- Yeah... oh, is plus 450 okay?
38:07
And this question gets asked in, throughout sports betting media everywhere, and universally the answer is, "Oh, it's..." More often than not, "Oh yeah, I would s- yeah, I'd still play that." This drives you crazy.
38:19
Yeah, that, that answer is wrong. It is wrong. I, it could be right if you bet 150 to 1 and it's still 120 to 1. He just took a pen and put an X. It, it was just an X. Yeah, nobody could see it on the camera.
38:30
You missed that as well. That's all, that's all you were missing. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, yeah. If, if you bet Goff MVP at 40 to 1 and is, is he still good at 28 to 1? Of course not.
38:38
I mean, the, the bottom line is if, the truth is if, if, if all of these other bets were that, uh, had such high positive expectation, the sports books would go broke. I mean, there's just, um, the bottom line is that
38:53
futures, my, my friend Brad Feinberg taught me this, futures bets actually, I used to poo poo them. Mm-hmm.
38:57
They're actually wildly profitable if you're on top of it, but you've gotta get in and get the seven to one on the Jayden Daniels the day after or right after he plays really well. You can't be playing plus 450.
39:10
And the point you're trying to make is that even if Jayden Daniels goes on and, and, and, you know, midway through the season, let's say, he becomes like this wildly big favorite, and he ends up winning the Rookie of the Year, it is not the result that matters to what Steve is saying, it is the fact that if you, if you exhibit that behavior, getting the, the lesser of the number over and over again, you will be negative EV over the course of everything.
39:33
Because the truth is Jayden Daniels probably has somewhere between a 15 and a 20% chance- Yeah... of winning, and given that seven to one is outstanding, and four and a half to one is insufficient. Yeah.
39:45
I tried not moving it by, you know, going a little under a dime, and it still ticked a little. It just, yeah, the, I don't... Did you use your players card? No, I didn't. Yeah, stayed, stayed incognito also, Kelly. Ooh.
39:56
Ooh. And we, and, and some, Jeff Benson and his folks, they're watch- they're watching you. Ah. They're paying attention. Uh, moved a little bit. Moved a little bit. Yeah.
40:04
I, I got a note from, uh, from Steve the other day. I'm sorry, were, were you finished, Hugh? No, I'm done. I'm done. Yeah. Conversation, the, uh, on the Even Money Podcast with Ross Tucker. Great podcast. Check it out.
40:13
Steve Fezzik does it- Yeah... every week with Ross. Um, [smacks lips] hey, Steve, what do you have the difference between Deshaun Watson and one Jameis Winston? I have them right around one point.
40:22
Oh, I thought you were gonna say absolutely nothing like you did on the podcast. [laughs] I backed off. You backed off. Okay. Okay. I, I want the, the, the- He took, he took some incoming on it...
40:31
the one, I, I actually looked up my numbers. So, so the bottom line is that the, they asked all the oddsmakers and they had it at 3.1 points, and I was like, "I, I'm not even sure that Watson's better- [laughs]...
40:43
you know, than Jameis Winston." That was how he reacted. Yes. But- But, but I mean, but, but certainly not, the, the line's not moving a field goal if Watson's not playing.
40:50
I know he was fantastic at Clemson and in his rookie year, but he is like, it, it, it's been years since I've seen him play good football, right?
40:59
Uh, since we have you for another three minutes, is there anybody else you wanna say something, uh, negative about, that you wanted to kill? Yes, I do. Uh- [laughs]...
41:05
smartest, smartest guy in, in, in gambling, Rufus Peabody. Our- Tremendous sports bettor... our buddy. Not, not in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame yet. Not in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame.
41:15
Uh, but I was talking to Rufus and, and he said, "Oh, I played, just played golf at Angel Park," which is a local's favorite, but it's like, it's like a value, not s- not so nice.
41:24
And I said, "But what, now, Rufus, you're a Seven Star. Why didn't you just play Cascata or Rio Secco? You're comped.
41:29
You get, you get to play t- you know, f- two free rounds, you know, um, first half of the year and the second half of the year." And he had this sick look in his, in his, in his face- [laughs]...
41:38
like he'd just eaten bad chicken. And he said, "What?" And I said, "Yeah, it's right on the website." And so he did, and, and he's like, "Oh, I didn't know."
41:46
So, um, we gotta, we gotta, we gotta work on Rufus's comp wizardry. But you know what?
41:50
No matter how smart you are, Kelly and I were talking, and I'm such an idiot, I completely missed something in terms of, you know, a promo that we, that we're doing together, and I just feel like the dumbest man in America because of it.
42:01
Yeah. Hey, we learned after t- after time one, okay? What, what did Stevie miss? What did he miss? Ju- just, just some fine print stuff. Oh, okay. I, I- So even you. Ah. Even you can miss something. Ah.
42:11
But it's nothing we would've known ahead of time. Right. It, it was nothing you could've known until, until- But he still, he still didn't get it till you just told him. Yeah. So, yeah. Yeah.
42:19
So I mean, the point is, and this, and this is really, you know, going back to my man here, Think Like a Pro, Logan Fields, there's stuff that's obvious that nobody does, and then once you learn about it, you're like, "Why haven't I been doing this?"
42:31
Did you just try to buy it? Is it out of stock at Amazon? What's that? Did you just try to buy it? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, I tried to buy it. It's now, it's out of stock at Amazon. We're lit- Manasado has an extra copy.
42:39
He's literally sending us an extra copy 'cause he's satisfied As, as Manasado, he has Beyond Counting by Grosjean. It's like, it goes for, like, $1,000 now. It's like it- Wow. What?
42:48
It tells you how to beat, like, the big six wheel and three card poker and, like, exploiting casino misdeals of things. It's, it's fantastic. Last thing, 30 seconds.
42:57
Uh, DraftKings, uh, came out yesterday and they said... By the way, did you get that, uh, stray email from DraftKings, too? They were sending out random emails to everybody. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
43:05
They completely had a glitch in their system. Uh, which I definitely didn't text anybody about and should have. Yeah. They- It's okay. Glad you got the same thing. Yeah...
43:12
they sent out an email to, like, every human being that's ever been, uh, you know, had an account there, even for us VSiN with our contests, whatever. How'd you figure that out?
43:19
W- was it people- Because I saw in my inbox that I had some weird DraftKings email. Me too. Like, "Hey, that dead heat you were involved in." I'm like, "What? I, I can't even bet at DraftKings.
43:28
What are you talking about?" [laughs] It's a ghost entity. Yeah. And apparently they sent it to thousands. But, uh- Oh, that's funny...
43:31
they decided, so FanDuel's not doing it, so DraftKings is like, "Yeah, we decided upon further review we're not gonna do this 3% thing." So get this.
43:38
After, after 50 years, so when you do a 3% surcharge, famously it's like laying -113.6. So they, so, so don't think about the -100.
43:47
Think about, like, you're, if you're betting to win 100, you're being charged $10 of vig. That's been the case for 50 years. Yep. 50 years, and they wanted to raise it from 10 to $13.60. Shocker, that isn't gonna work.
43:59
They're, they're still gonna try to weasel it into, like, same game parlays now, right? They should've done it quietly that way before. Yes. I'm sure they'll try that. Um, thank you, Steve. Always a pleasure.
44:09
Steve Fezzik, current Las Vegas Invitational champion, awaiting Todd Wishnof to show up so he can play him. Um, thank you. We've done all we can do. Best Bets is next. Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network.
44:21
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