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Aug 14, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 14, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 14, 2025
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33:40
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:09
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. However you take us in, we are grateful. Thank you for making us part of your morning.
0:22
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell in the Hizzy. Hello. Cirque Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. How you doing? How's it going? How's, uh, you been to Go- you been to anything Bet Bash? No, not yet. Not yet.
0:31
I'll be around here all day on Friday hanging out. Um, hung out with, uh, Dr. Bob, the great Dr. Bob last night. He made it into town? Oh yeah, he made it into town. Hopefully we'll get him on the show tomorrow. Okay.
0:42
He's re- he was releasing college football season win totals. His big release is next week, so we'll definitely have him on after that. Uh, but hopefully we can get him in tomorrow.
0:50
Joe B- uh, hung out with him, his, uh, his right-hand man, Tanner, last night. Joe Peta, the great Joe Peta. Joe Peta will be here tomorrow. Will be in tomorrow, yep.
0:58
Uh, for t- for today, Spanky, the creator of Bet Bash and the, uh, host of the, what is it? The, uh, Be a Better Better Podcast. Yep. All these By- Be a Better Better, and then Tim Lawson has the Better Life.
1:12
Better Than Ever. It's lot, it's a lot to remember. I was, I was just gonna say, I alr- I already forgot- Yeah... again from yesterday. Spanky, Bet Bash creator, in studio here coming up.
1:19
Paul Carr, back-to-back appearances from Paul Carr. Did futures for the Premier League yesterday. We will recap those. Let's get that graphic ready.
1:27
And his Premier League plays for week number one in the new Premier League season. He from True Media Sports. Jordan Sherwood, UFC 319. UFC 319 coming up, uh, with Jordan. A big main event.
1:41
Kelly, can you pronounce the, uh, the names of the main event participants? Oh, man, no. Du Plessis and someone else. [laughs] Uh, Dricus du Plessis. Yeah, and, uh, who's he fighting? Hamza Chimaev.
1:57
Oh, yeah, I could've done Chimaev. I could've done that. Why didn't you do that? No, there's some names further down the card, though, where I am not nearly as plugged in anymore.
2:05
Yeah, there are Gerald Mir- Mearschart and Mikal Oleksyak. What just happened? You okay? Just pronouncing UFC names for you. Okay. I thought there was another, another medical event.
2:17
Uh, Crack of course, later on the show. Unscripted with Crack Man Bill Krackenberger, as is the case each and every Thursday.
2:23
Uh, typically it's Zach and Crack, but we're still giving Zach time off 'cause he's got a new baby girl. That's right. Yes, indeed. Uh, okay. Tennis. Yesterday came on the show
2:34
and I said I only had one lean yesterday, was Anna Kalinskaya against Ekaterina Alexandrova, and I wasn't willing to play it because she was 0 and six lifetime against Alexandrova.
2:47
I said, "I'm gonna sh- show some humility despite our amazing run here. Gonna show some humility in the numbers." But by the time the show was over yesterday, 'cause I went to bed, it was plus 140 on Kalinskaya.
2:58
I get a text from the aforementioned Tim Lawson right after the show yesterday. He goes, "Can I interest you in some plus 160?" And at plus 160, I'm like, "I gotta play this."
3:07
So for subscribers yesterday, we got the w- I did play it, vsin.com/picks. For all subscribers, I ended up playing Kalinskaya plus 160, bingo, bango, winner. Nice. So this has been the tournament of 2025,
3:23
uh, tennis-wise for sure. Uh, add that plus 160 to, uh, a group of bets now that is just, it's just a plus money cavalcade. Um, so far, I wanna get them all now.
3:38
Well, now I'm not, now I'm not gonna find them, but it, uh, the plus 160 on Kalinskaya yesterday is added to just a five-day span in which, uh, prec- preceding that, a plus 235 on Bronzetti, a plus 264 on Seidel, a plus 319 on Atman, a plus 147 on Griecheva, a plus 263 on At- uh, on Atman before that, a plus 196 on Townsend, and a plus 142 on Ito.
4:02
That's the last five days, dude. It's been awesome.
4:05
Today, two picks not nearly as sexy with the prices, and the reason that these are not on the vsin.com/picks page is because of Bet Bash activities, I sent these in to Bill Ade at midnight. So apologies for that.
4:17
We gotta put them on the picks page. But two, uh, one on the ladies' side, one on the men's side. On the ladies' side, Barbora Krejcikova, your girl. Barbora. You love Barbora. Barbora.
4:29
Uh, this is a rematch of last year's Wimbledon final. Obviously it has nothing to do with that, this is hard courts, but just to give you some historical context. Oh, yeah, [laughs] that's right.
4:38
Uh, Krejcikova is even money versus Jasmine Paolini today. Uh, Jasmine Paolini, who defies the laws of physics with her size and can still have a good serve at times.
4:50
Uh, but we're going Krejcikova here at even money versus Paolini. And then the other one's on the men's side, and this is a, a bit of a favorite here.
4:57
Ben Shelton minus 149 against Jiri Lehecka, who took down our, uh, an- another one of our plus 300, uh, dog plays on Adam Walton the other day by beating him in two tiebreakers as Lehecka stepped up his game.
5:11
But the, we're going Shelton. The, uh, I, I believe, is Shelton the American number one now over Taylor Fritz? Did he take that over? I think he did. Shelton minus 149 versus Jiri Lehecka.
5:21
So Krejcikova on the ladies' side, Shelton on the men's side today in Cincinnati, which is not actually in Cincinnati, Kelly, it's in Mason, Ohio. It sounds beautiful. Well, it's humid. A, I bet. [laughs] Yeah.
5:35
I don't know. I- if you gave the players truth serum, right? 'Cause the Tennis Channel does a whole number of trying to drum up this tournament. And I love you, Cincinnati, I'm not trying to offend anybody here.
5:44
But I do wonder if the players are like, "Oh, good God, we're in the middle of I don't know where, and it's humid, and we can b-," guys, uh, guys and gals are quitting in, in the middle of matches 'cause of the humidity.
5:55
"Just get us to the US Open" kind of thing. Well, the wea- the weather might be one thing. Yeah. As far as the location, I bet you they don't really care. These guys are, they're used to traveling all over the globe.
6:03
Maybe. It is really hard to get sponsorships for a tournament in this country that is not in one of the big cities on the coasts. Yeah. So this is, you know who owns this tournament? Who? Emma Navarro's dad.
6:15
[laughs] I knew you'd love that. Oh, yeah, that's, that i- that is, that is great to know, Gil, for going forward. [laughs] I was gonna make a joke, like, last week- No...
6:24
about Pegula, like, let the Pegulas likely owning, uh, you know, Toronto or whatever they were in. No. But no, no, no. No, this one is actually true though. Okay.
6:31
Emma Navarro's dad owns this one and the, and the tournament in Charleston, I believe. You've got, I mean, it's funny 'cause you've got similar, uh, the FedEx, the FedEx Cup, similar things going on, right? It's FedEx
6:41
sponsors the FedEx Cup, obviously, all year long. Okay, you go to Memphis, Tennessee, where they're based out of. Yeah. Tour Championship is where Coca-Cola's based out of. It all comes back to sponsorships.
6:52
I do actually have a couple first round leader plays- Please... if anybody wants to get involved. Ludvig Oberg, 25 to one. Kurt Kitayama, who, uh, is out on the course, but o- not off to a good start, 40 to one.
7:01
I have him, Matt. You can probably get him longer if you wanna get involved. He bogeyed his first hole. Uh, Chris Gotterup at 35 to one, so three first-round leader plays today. Nice.
7:10
Um, by the way, Cincinnati, I love you 'cause this has been the tournament. They're all Kelly's, by the way. Let's flash those up. These are all Kelly's BMW Championship bets that he gave out yesterday.
7:19
Um, a nice helping of Ludvig Oberg and Kurt Kitayama, who bogeyed the first hole today. Yeah. Is that what he did? Yeah. You and me were not happy about that when I walked in. Right. Um, baseball.
7:28
Still laughing at that Cameron Young matchup. I loved that so much until Rufus opened up his mouth yesterday.
7:33
Oh, by the way, shout out to Rufus and Captain Jack with a, uh, with a great unabated event yesterday from 6:00 to 8:00, which, uh, we all attended. But, uh- Oh, d- you went over there? Oh, yeah. It was great.
7:43
You were busy yesterday, man. Hey, man. You did a lot. Yeah, man. Podcast. Tonight, Legacy Club, baby. Let's go. Futures draft. Oh. You were at Legacy Club tonight. Oh, futures draft was great yesterday.
7:53
We had fun doing that. Watched the first hour. Yeah. Very entertaining. Yeah. Very entertaining.
7:58
You, shout out to Youmans, who, who, uh, pushed it along to make it a two-hour event rather than a three-hour event, which was a stroke of genius. Uh, yeah, that was, that was probably right. That was probably right.
8:07
That was probably right. Yeah, it was.
8:08
By the way- You- Youmans was the, uh, he was the guy who, who won and lost somehow in the first round because I, the most shocking upset to me, just producer back at, backside of the, uh, television, uh, rooms here, and we, over in the control room, most shocking upset was that Matt Youmans had the best-looking shot I thought of everybody remotely.
8:27
Oh, best video. Yeah, I was, I, I almost- [laughs]... fell off my chair when I saw that. He wa- he was also the guy- But then he was the first guy to screw up the rules, too. Oh, yeah.
8:34
So it was, you know, give and take, give and take. He, he, uh, usurped a couple picks fro- of that I was about to play.
8:40
Like, five picks before me, he grabbed the exact, like, Pittsburgh over, season wins he grabbed, and there was a, I think it was a Burrow pick also, where I'm like, "Ah." Yeah.
8:48
Yeah, your first one, you had to go chase touchdowns, right? Yes. Then you get a couple of those where- I had to, I had to adapt, yeah.
8:54
Baseball yesterday, uh, Shohei, four and a third innings, seven Ks, went one of four with a triple at the plate, but the Dodgers fall to the Angels six to five. Dodgers lost all six games to the Angels this year.
9:07
What price could you have gotten on that- That's wild. Yeah... uh, before the season? Uh, July 3rd, Dodgers had a nine-game lead over the, uh, oh, over the competition in the National League West.
9:18
12th division title in 15, in 13 years, I should say. Foregone conclusion, and guess what? Padres are up a game now. The Dodgers have only won 12 of their last 33. That is unbelievable.
9:31
So that's since, that's since July 3rd? I put a, a, yeah, so that's since July 3rd. That is wild, 12 of their last 33. Meanwhile, the Brewers will never, never ever lose another baseball game.
9:42
They win their 12th in a row yesterday and put up another 12 runs. This is, this is of the National League West standings, by the way. Padres still plus money to win the National League West, plus 125.
9:51
Dodgers still minus 165. Let's look at number one seed odds. Can we do that for the National Leagues- For sure... since I just brought in the Brewers?
9:57
The Brewers, who are now 12 and 0 in August, and by the way, the August monthly sweepstakes, this would be the month to snake it up, and I did snake it up with the Rangers, but it doesn't matter. Brewers are 12 and 0,
10:09
and no one else is particularly close, and they play more games. They've got more games left than everybody else. Um, number one seed odds, Kelly. Number one seed odds in the National League. Brewers are minus 250.
10:25
They're 76 and 44. They have a seven-game lead over the field. [laughs] Oh my God. Yeah, this stuff moves so much though. This, a seven-game lead. I get it. We have a quarter of the season left, but that's 40 games.
10:37
You've got seven games up. I mean, obviously we just talked about things changing, but the Brewers don't look like they're changing this brand of baseball anytime soon. Phillies are plus 650.
10:47
They have the, uh, second-best record at 69 and 51. Dodgers, the aforementioned Dodgers and Padres, both at plus 950.
10:54
Uh, the only thing you can say against the Brewers here is that everybody else has an e- a much easier schedule. Um, Dodgers have the easiest remaining in baseball. Padres have the second easiest.
11:07
Cubs, who are also on that list, have the third easiest. You get the idea. Milwaukee has the fifth hardest, but guess what? I don't even think these schedules matter at this point the way these teams are playing.
11:17
I just think it's sort of like a thing to mention. Yeah. But it is a thing. The, the, the movement, though. I sent, I sent this in yesterday. Danny updated the smart center.
11:24
Yesterday before games started, Brewers were minus 195 in the smart center. You gonna g- you, you fading that? No, I'm just like- Yeah... it's just wild. It's amazing. Free burgers for everybody. Free burgers.
11:36
There you go. Don't go today, though. George Webb, uh, had to send out a tweet. He's like, "Hold up. We're gonna set a date." Oh, is that right? Yeah. Okay. Spanky on the other side.
11:44
Bet Bash right here on a Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Don't forget Circa Survivor, the quest for 14.2 million.
12:08
A 10-part documentary series following the drama, strategy, and heartbreak inside the world's largest legal football contest. You can catch the final episodes nightly through Saturday, 9:00 PM Eastern.
12:17
And if you've missed an episode, you can watch them all now at vsin.com/survivor. I finally got out of the penalty box. Uh- Oh, are you back on? Episode one, absent till episode eight.
12:28
[laughs] And I, I managed to get through eight without cursing this time, so apparently I might be asked back- Oh, man... for nine or 10.
12:35
Uh, is there, uh, is there anybody outside of Matt Brown and Mike Somich that's in every single one- I-... from the network? I think Tim Murray might be in every one. Really? In every single one? Wow. Okay.
12:45
I, I mean, don't hold me to every single one. Yeah. But he's, he is prominently featured as well. Somich and Brown, and Tim Murray. Everybody else kinda cameo-ish. Right, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Cool.
12:58
Anyway, $14.2 million, last year's, uh, quest in Circus Survivor. You got your Survivor, we haven't, we haven't done our entries yet. We gotta do it. No, I'm real- Yeah.
13:07
You know, you know what's funny is I used to, I used to be far more concerned about that in the past. Yeah. I'm, I've gotten to the point now- Mm-hmm...
13:13
over the past couple years where I've signed up the last couple days. Clearly. Well, well remember the conversations we always used to have too of like, "Oh, the numbers. I don't know. Is there gonna be an overlay?"
13:22
[laughs] And I'm like, I don't even think about that anymore- Remember that?... because we know the push that final weekend- Yeah... always gets. Sure do. Uh, we got tweets that beat in the book.
13:29
Real Nicks, "I'm pretty sure I could listen to Kelly say Barbora the rest of the day, LOL. Nothing else would make the rest of my workday go better." That's a producer thing, man, too.
13:37
When you're like, when you're, when you have to type out names, even w- when I w- I mean, how long she been playing tennis now? Long time. Yeah, like- She's 30, I believe. Yeah... I mean r- okay.
13:45
So she was, I w- when I'd have to write out highlights back in the day for l- local news anchors to read, right?
13:51
Like you're just, uh, you just sit there writing these out, make sure you're getting the phonetic spelling out for these. Now all I'm thinking in my mind, Barbora. Like the, how, why- Barbora...
13:58
is this the name I need to emphasize? Michael Burns, "Love Prophet X. Got Barbora at plus 125." Good for you. Uh, Stringfellow Hawk, "Oops, I did it again. Your picks weren't up.
14:08
I played Zach's Lehecka oppo Shel-" No, Zach and I are oppo. Zach's back. Making picks. Zach's back. Zach's betting. The numbers, guys. Shelton, what do you know about favorite skill? He's, he's got betting ties.
14:18
[laughs] This is a great tweet. What do you know about favorite skill? That's true. Yeah, what do you know? I seem to do better with the dogs.
14:23
He says, "Hachinov surrendered yesterday thinking Shelton might wear down after Toronto. By the way, what a match last night, Kalinskaya versus Alexandrova.
14:31
I'm sure you were not listening with Bet Bash going on, but Jim Courier was announcing because apparently Lindsay Davenport called it a night, and they wouldn't stop talking about it. Must watch TV." Oh, okay. Hmm.
14:42
Guess they were just, uh, bagging on Lindsay Davenport for bouncing. Uh, and then this is Ray 393939. He says, "Speaking of Jason, where's Jason been?"
14:51
We said it before, uh, Jason, uh, Jason just decided he didn't wanna do it anymore. Still love Jason. We still text with Jason. Yeah. You know, he just didn't wanna come on anymore.
14:59
You know who does wanna come on it, on more and more? Paul Carr, everybody. Talking Premier League back-to-back with us on back-to-back days, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:06
He's on the Ringer Soccer Podcast, and of course, part of True Media Networks. How you doing, Paul? Yeah, ready to go. Game, season starts tomorrow. Liverpool, Brentford. No, Liverpool, Bournemouth is tomorrow. Oh.
15:17
And then the rest of the games Saturday and Sunday. We're ready. The beginning of the season. The global football before our American football. Let us recap for folks, by the way, Paul.
15:26
Uh, you came on the show yesterday. You gave us season-long plays. Uh, if we could flash- Yeah... those up on the screen for everybody, because it was a, uh, it was a dense segment of Paul Carr futures.
15:36
Um, if to, to win it all you had? I have Manchester City. I mean, they're the third favorite. Liverpool's the defending champion. Arsenal made a lot of moves and look like they're in good shape.
15:47
Uh, but I like City as a bounce-back year. They may have to win all their games, like three to two, but that's not off the table, and I think they'll figure it out.
15:55
Something defensively, even though there's still some question marks there. Yeah. Top half, you went Crystal Palace and Everton, plus 170 and plus 210 respectively. Bottom half of the table, Man U at plus 330.
16:06
Relegation, a Paul Carr staple category. Wolverhampton at plus 320. Yeah. Last place, Burnley at plus 160. And the Golden Boot, Cole Palmer of Chelsea at 28 to 1. You want any of them back, Paul?
16:19
Are you, do you regret any of them yet? No. Okay. Not yet. Not yet. Not yet. Talk to me on Monday. Give it a week. Yeah. We're, we're, we're not gonna go with the Erling Haaland, uh, top goal scorer- [laughs]...
16:27
since we're going Man City? I mean, obviously, if it's straight up, sure. But I mean, he's like plus 150, plus 130, depending on your market. So, I mean- He, he's glorious though. D- Glorious. Right. I mean, yeah. Yeah.
16:38
If he, if you tell me he's playing, you know, 35 games, I feel like there's almost no way. 'Cause I mean, last year he had a bad year and still had what?
16:46
20 some odd goals, and I think was second, maybe it was third in the Golden Boot race. So yeah, I mean, he's your clear-cut favorite. But I'm, I'm looking for something a little bit different there. All right.
16:55
Now, I've often described you, Paul, as the, uh, as the guy on this show, just quietly moves the chains.
17:01
Gentleman Paul Carr just comes in here, delivers a three-pack of soccer picks on a weekly basis, goes about his business, and we just move the chains.
17:08
And, and moved the chains last year to the tune of how many units to the positive? We were plus 15 units on your show last year. I think it was 19% over the course of the Premier League season. There we go.
17:19
Plus 15 units. Yeah. Yeah. Doesn't have to br- Love it... you know, doesn't call himself the g- the be- greatest bettor in ANG history like some others do. Yeah. Hey, you come in every week- Quietly...
17:28
and drop a two and one every week or- That's right... I, I don't, dead or done. That's what you j- just gotta do, just grind them out here. Yeah. It's a long season. It is a long season.
17:35
We just talked schedule off the air, too. Paul's locked in for the next 11 and a half months, 'cause we've got, uh, Premier League and the World Cup right after that. Ooh.
17:42
We're already making World Cup plans for next summer. Do you have any, do you have any World Cup, before we get into your Premier League picks here, uh, matches, do you, uh, have any World Cup thoughts this far out?
17:51
I mean, I'm probably gonna take Germany, right? [laughs] Isn't that- Of course you are... legally obligated on this show? What am I even asking for? Yeah. Yeah. Will, will, will Pulisic play?
17:58
Will Pulisic play for the United States? Yes. Okay, good. Yes. That would, that would be, that would be a shame. I would be stunned if any of these big names that have been in and out a little bit don't actually play.
18:06
I think it is just kind of the new coach Get to know you, feel it out. It's also weird 'cause the US isn't qualifying 'cause they're hosting, so they automatically get in. Oh, right.
18:15
So it, you know, it's, they're just friendlies and you just have fewer high importance games, and it kinda screws up the whole cycle from a rhythm standpoint.
18:23
Do we have any shot, in your opinion, any shot to like- At winning the whole thing? N- n- forget winning. To get to the quarterfinals. Yeah.
18:32
So the US is seeded as a host, which means they should get a more favorable draw than they might typically.
18:38
So they should be no worse than probably the second-best team in their group, whereas usually it's closer to third. Uh, so they should get out of the group stage.
18:46
I'm saying this without seeing who they're playing, but just in general now. They should get out of the group stage, and there's a round of 32 this year, so you'd have to win two on this year. Yes.
18:55
You'd have to win two games to get to the quarters. So you'd hope they get a decent draw in the round of 32, but there's so much, so many variables there.
19:02
But getting out of the group stage is like the bare minimum, and then you're, you really gotta win a knockout game, at least one on home soil.
19:08
I love nothing more than the, uh, the trajectory of a US World Cup team that wins a game, and like the entire nation goes crazy. Oh, yeah. In San Francisco, everybody spills out onto the streets.
19:18
They're watching these games, or... And then when we, uh, inevitably lose, everybody the next day is like, "Yeah, we don't really- [laughs]... we don't really care." Yeah. "We don't really care about this." Yeah.
19:25
Especially when it takes place in Columbus, Ohio, and it's like the, the- Yes... center of the soccer world. We have the strangest relationship- Yeah... with this sport. Yeah.
19:33
If the US can win a knockout game or two, make a run at home, it'd be an epic summer. Yes. Looking forward to it, though. It's always fun. All right, Premier League. All right.
19:43
It begins tomorrow, but you have plays- It does... on Saturday and Sunday. What do you got? Yeah. Not a lot of data, obviously, for this season.
19:50
So the first week or two, you're really kinda trusting your preseason reads, your priors, et cetera. So I'm gonna start with Manchester City. I would lay a goal and a half against Wolverhampton.
20:00
I'm, so I'm taking my title pick against the relegation pickup line. Uh, plus 120 to lay a goal and a half. City's got the firepower. There is no question about that.
20:08
It, and they're over, under d- they're over to score one and a half goals here is like minus 260 or something. So they've got the firepower. Will their defense hold up?
20:18
I think so against a Wolverhampton team that lost its two best attackers from last season. So this is, I'll start off, uh, on my classic foot. Take the better team here.
20:26
I'll lay a goal and a half with Man City at Wolverhampton, getting plus 120. [laughs] The old Paul Carr, they're just the better team handicap. Well, going off of- They're just the better team...
20:34
going off his futures yesterday, this is like us having an alt over on a, an NFL team and an alt under, versus an alt under team that we bet on in week one. That's right. So yeah, that makes sense. Checks out.
20:43
Absolutely right. Yep. All right, to Sunday. You have a couple totals. Yeah, got a total and- Or no, one total and one double chance. I'm sorry. Yeah, one total.
20:51
Nottingham Forest, Brentford, under two and a half, minus 110. So Forest was kind of the fairy tale team last year, almost made the top four.
20:59
Th- but their underlying numbers just went off a cliff the last half of the season. They've lost, uh, a couple of good attackers. Chris Wood is still back up top. He's their big New Zealand forward.
21:10
But he ran super hot, and he's well past 30, so not sure he can keep it up. Uh, so I think Forest is gonna try to keep it tight. Brentford has a new head coach.
21:20
Uh, they also lost some of their better players, so I think they'll be a little more defensive than they were last year when they were kinda wide open. So I, I think this is just tight.
21:27
You know, both these teams would love to win one-nil and get out with three points. So I think that'll lead us to a low total here, minus 110. I'll take under two and a half. Okay.
21:36
And then the old double chance, and for those, uh, who are unaware, again, the double chance is defined as? A win or draw. Some books will h- w- literally call it double chance.
21:46
Some books will call it plus half a goal on the spread, if you wanna play it that way. Should be all the same thing. I'm taking Crystal Palace on the double chance at Chelsea. I like Palace, mentioned the top half pick.
21:58
Uh, they look good. They outplayed Liverpool for much of the game in their Community Shield match last weekend. And Chelsea has a lot of questions, mostly at the back.
22:05
They, they picked up some players, more in the attack, but their center backs especially are really up in the air, some injury questions. So I think Palace can easily nick a goal or two and get a win, maybe a draw.
22:16
One or the other. That's all we need here. I get plus 135 on this one. Very nice. Saturday, to recap. Saturday, Manchester City, minus a goal and a half, plus 120 at Wolverhampton. Shop around for the number.
22:27
Uh, Sunday, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, under two and a half goals, and Crystal Palace, double chance, plus 135 at Chelsea. Paul Carr, everybody, back to back. Thank you, Paul. Always a pleasure. Let's go. Let's do it.
22:40
@PaulCarr on Twitter, by the way. Four, Paul. Some UFC, UFC 319 with our buddy Jordan Sherwood on the other side. It's a Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
23:04
By the way, uh, just to wrap up, uh, earlier before we get to Jordan Sherwood on UFC 319, uh, we were mentioning, uh, our thoughts on the number one seed in the National League, and how the Brewers, with a seven-game lead over the field, are minus 250, and we're not, what are we?
23:19
We're not even in the middle of August yet. Look at that. Look at those August numbers. 12 and 0 in August. The Mariners are the next best team, nine and two, but look at the games left.
23:30
The Brewers have two games in pocket compared to everybody el- well, not to everybody else, but to, they, they certainly have more games left than everybody else on that graphic there.
23:38
So this is just Katie bar the door, they're never losing again. But as far as the number one seed, they're minus 250 and with a seven-game lead over the rest of the field, uh, I'm not betting against that.
23:47
The American League, just to put a bow on it, Toronto is a half-game lead over the Detroit Tigers. They're plus 175 to get the number one seed in the AL. Detroit is plus 230,
23:59
followed by Houston at three to one, Seattle at plus 550, and then everybody else is 16 to one or longer. This, to me, is a Tigers bet. Oh, really? At plus 230.
24:10
Just because, and I know I, I mentioned how schedule doesn't seem to matter in the, in the NL But here, Toronto has the 11th hardest schedule the rest of the way in terms of the opponent's aggregate win percentage.
24:21
Tigers, sixth easiest in all of baseball. Um, I just think Detr- I just, I've never wavered from the fact that I think Detroit's the best team in the American League. Yeah. So plus 230 to me would be an interesting play.
24:33
I'm, I'm getting there with you, too. Just kind of watching these teams more and more this summer. Yeah. I, I think Tiger's been the best, uh, best looking team to me- As-... like projecting forward...
24:41
mediocre as they have been, there they are, just a half game behind the Blue Jays for the best record in the American League. Um, so there you go on that. Bet accordingly.
24:51
Uh, and by the way, this one tweet also we had about, uh, they, they logged, uh... Yes, to, to answer your question, um, talking to Jeff Staples, "Hey Gil, the Visa app has Paolini as your pick.
25:02
Before I fire away on Krajcikiva, I wanted to make sure the app isn't correct." It is. I am on Krajcikiva. So we'll- Barbora... we will correct that. Yes, being corrected right now. Barbora. Let's talk some UFC 319.
25:11
It is in Chicago. This man is from Chicago. He loves himself some Chicago. Is he going to the UFC 319 event? The answer is no, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, it's Jordan Sherwood.
25:22
Jordan, would you like to tell everybody why you are not going to this event?
25:25
Well, I mean, there's a, there's a bigger event, in my opinion, happening in Chicago, and that is the Savannah Bananas will be playing- [laughs]... at Great Field, home of the White Sox, on Friday and Saturday night.
25:37
I think it's actually gonna be selling better than the UFC. Uh, you know, I'm here in Chicago.
25:42
There, there isn't a lot of hype and talk about the UFC, you know, being here, returning for the first time to the Windy City in six years.
25:48
So, uh, no, I will not be at the United Center, uh, taking, uh, you know, in this, uh, middleweight championship fight we have tomorrow night. Okay. That doesn't mean you aren't betting on it, though.
25:59
Uh- No, of course not... and let's start with the main event. Dricus du Plessis and, uh, Khamzat Chimaev, with Chimaev a big favorite in this. Uh, and let me see if I get this right.
26:11
Uh, is it, is it one of these where du Plessis, um, has to just sort of survive the first flurry of the first round or second round, and then it sort of maybe tilts the advantage his way? Is that correct?
26:25
Well, that's, that's the main narrative. I mean, Khamzat Chimaev was a world champion before he even got to the UFC.
26:33
He burst onto the scene during COVID, and he, you know, he made the, the UFC record of quickest turnaround in back-to-back weeks of fighting on Fight Island cards.
26:42
Um, and when he fights, 'cause he doesn't fight that consistently, when he fights, he dominates. He, he gets former champions out of there, uh, in a round.
26:51
Uh, he goes, if he doesn't, he dominates them in 10, eight rounds, and then coasts to a decision because of his just unrelenting grappling attack.
27:01
Um, and Dricus du Plessis has never seen a, a, a grappler, a wrestler with these type of credentials. But we have seen Chimaev slow down in fights if he's unable to get his opponent out of there in the first round.
27:16
Uh, early on in his career, he went three rounds with Gilbert Burns, had a 10-eight round against Gilbert, but then kind of had to, like, survive and coast to a victory. Same with Kamaru Usman a couple of years later.
27:26
So yeah, the narrative is, is that if Dricus can survive the first round, round and a half, it's his fight to lose. And I, and I relatively agree with that. I think Dricus du Plessis is the champion for a reason.
27:38
He's beaten every, you know, former champion and rightful contender that's put, been put in front of him, and he fights with just such an awkward style.
27:47
He's a bigger middleweight, and he's gonna have, in my opinion, the, uh, the striking and the power advantage. The question is, is that can he survive the onslaught of that first round? A lot of people don't agree.
27:57
I mean, this price opened up about $1.50 for Chimaev. You see now it's $2.40. Wow. It'll probably be $3 by fight night.
28:05
Um, more and more money piling in on Chimaev 'cause they think he's gonna be the middleweight champion of the world. So what you just said there, though, that's the betting strategy.
28:12
If we're gonna follow you on the du Plessis angle here, on the du Plessis bet, should we wait till closer to fight time, then?
28:20
I think you wait till closer to fight time, and if you're one of those people that likes to bet these live, which I do, uh, as well, I, I think maybe even bet it after the first round, because there is a little bit of question marks about Ch- uh, Chimaev's cardio.
28:32
And I think du Plessis is a special talent, and I think when you're getting a special talent, a guy that's been successful defending the championship against every rightful contender, and he's plus $2, um, you gotta prove it to me.
28:42
I'm willing to risk the $2, uh, the bet there, plus, you know, get plus 200 back, uh, until Chimaev proves to me that he could run through a guy like Dricus du Plessis.
28:52
Jordan, I think I'm, um, I'm on top of this one with you. I, I like a $2 dog, if not even better than a $2 dog. Uh- Good strategy laid out there, too, right? If we- Yep... if we think it's gonna close shorter- Yep...
29:01
yeah, wait, and then I like the live betting angle, too. Yep. Absolutely. Wait if you are, uh, about du Plessis in this one.
29:07
All right, before the main event, featherweight bout between the, uh, uh, British Larone Murphy and the American Aaron Pico. Murphy a plus 154 dog we're showing here. Y- yeah, a little bit of a trend for me here.
29:20
You know, we, we've seen a lot of these high-profile talents make their UFC debuts and, and, and struggle, uh, with the UFC lights and the UFC talent.
29:28
And Aaron Pico is, is one of those guys that came over from Bellator, uh, a, a well-credentialed wrestler, Olympic wrestler, a big time phenom, and, and beat guys over there, but has never faced anybody as, as talented as in the top five, top 10 of the UFC featherweight division.
29:43
Larone Murphy is, is undefeated for a reason. You know, he's got a very slick, uh, striking style, excellent footwork, good takedown defense, familiar with five-round fights, so he's got good cardio as well.
29:55
And I think Aaron Pico being a, uh, $1.85 favorite is a little bit of a disrespect to Larone Murphy and the guys that he's beaten.
30:02
So this is, again, a, a, you know, a situation where, like, I love a guy that's undefeated, been in the top five of the featherweight division for a long time, at plus 154.
30:13
It's a bigger octagon, obviously, with the pay-per-view, uh, at the United Center, so he's gonna have room to operate. Uh, a lot of people believe that Pico will just, you know, wrestle him to death.
30:22
I'm just not one of those guys. I think that, uh, until Aaron Pico proves to me that he can beat high caliber featherweights, you know.
30:28
The guys that he's beaten, uh, over there in Bellator Would be in the top 10, top 15 of the, of the UFC's, uh, you know, featherweight division. So I'm on Lerone Murphy. So I'm on the dogs- Yes...
30:37
on the main and co-main event, 'cause I think Lerone Murphy, uh, is also a talented, uh, you know, competitor, and should be, could, could be challenging for a championship after this fight.
30:45
You, you figure like the, uh, like the main event, this also moves away from Murphy and we wait before betting, or is this one not as dramatic? This one you grab. This one you grab now. Yeah.
30:54
I, I feel like Aaron Pico's not gonna move the needle any further.
30:57
Uh, and you know, you know, the other thing, too, is it's a short-notice fight, so both guys were preparing elsewhere, uh, for, for a fight not scheduled.
31:03
So I think you jump on Lerone Murphy now, but if you wanna wait, you wait on, uh, Du Plessis closer to fight night. All right, let's go to the first bout of the main card. Tim Elliott, Kai Asakura.
31:14
You have a play on this as well. Yeah, I think this fight is great to open up the card, 'cause I think it'll be bonkers for as long as it lasts.
31:20
Kai Asakura came over to the UFC, another one of those guys that made his debut, wasn't the favorite, but lost, uh, pretty convincingly, uh, y- in his flyweight championship opportunity with Alexander Pantoja.
31:31
Got submitted for the first time in his career. Tim Elliott is a grappler, a awkward wrestler, looks for submissions as well.
31:38
Uh, but he's a guy that won't be able to handle the speed and the power on the feet, so I think it's a combination of this fight not making it to the judges' scorecards. I think we see a finish.
31:47
So I'm on the under, and, and playing it either as Tim Elliott's gonna grapple, get Asakura to the ground and submit him, or what I think is the more likely outcome, is Asakura's gonna, you know, land a body shot, a liver shot, or, or a KO and, and get Tim Elliott out, out of there.
32:02
So under two and a half, it's plus money right now. I think that that's the result we see in the flyweight opener for the pay-per-view, uh, or pay-per-view, or not The liver shot, Kelly. Yo, you like- I'd die.
32:12
I would die. [laughs] I, I got one of the hardest working livers in the United States, okay? The liver shot. No, I don't need to take one of those. Oh, Kelly loves the liver shot. Yeah. Uh, all right.
32:20
So to recap again, uh, Dragus Du Plessis, plus 200. Wait, perhaps, to bet that if you, uh, like Du Plessis and, uh, like what Jordan was talking about there against Khamzat Chimaev.
32:32
Lerone Murphy in the bout before that, plus 154 versus Aaron Pico, and then the first of the main card fights, Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura. Um, you're going, uh, you said, uh, over on that. The under.
32:45
No, the under two and a half. Under. Under. Pardon me, under. Two and a half rounds. Yeah, we're gonna get a finish in that, in that fight. Finish. Under two and a half on Elliott and Asakura.
32:51
Real quick, your Chicago Bears, season win total eight and a half, Jordan. Over or under? [laughs] Let's go nine. So we go over. Over. We, uh, we believe in Ben Johnson. Ben Johnson's the guy.
33:04
It's different up at Halas Hall this year, so we'll... The, the Bears will get to nine. Okay. That's bullish. In a very crowded division, Caleb Williams, year number two. Thank you, Jordan. Appreciate it, man.
33:16
All right, fellas. Thank you. Jordan Sherwood on UFC 319. Again, you can follow Jordan, by the way, @WoodOnESPN1000 on Twitter, co-host of the unnamed MMA podcast for ESPN Chicago.
33:28
We'll come back unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackenberger. It's a numbers game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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