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Aug 14, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 14, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 14, 2026
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45:41
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Good Friday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. No Kelly Biddle today.
0:29
Kelly on vacation. Kelly on his way or already has arrived in Nash Vegas, in Nashville for a, uh, a little trip with the boys. So we wish Kelly well. Hope he, uh, all the travels are safe.
0:40
Kelly will, uh, be back with us, I guess, uh, week from Monday. That's the story. Taking, uh, today off, and then all of next week. That doesn't mean he didn't leave all the good guests behind, 'cause he did.
0:50
Jensen Lewis is gonna join us. Jensen, you just heard on By the Books, co-host with Dave Ross of, uh, that show that leads into ours. Peter Fornatale will join us this hour to talk horse racing.
1:01
You're like, "Peter Fornatale? Why are we talking horse racing?" There is a global scandal in horse racing. Oh, my goodness. We gotta get to the bottom of this.
1:09
Again, I, I mentioned it the other day, but he's, uh, from Sky Sports Racing. He's gonna help us talk about this because I'm not a horse guy, so I'm gonna miss some of the details.
1:18
But essentially six horses, four of which finished in first place, uh, four won their races, long odds, all trained by the same dude, odds dropped, heavy betting in Britain. It's a whole thing.
1:31
It's a whole attack on the sport of horse racing, the integrity. Peter will, uh, talk us through that. Jordan Sherwood, UFC 330 in Philadelphia, PA this weekend.
1:40
And then Chrissy Andrews, my mishpocha, his triumphant return to the show after how many years has this been now? A few years, uh, not on the network. Triumphant return.
1:51
He has just written his fourth, count 'em, fourth book. Uh, first it was Then One Day, then it was Then One Year, and now it's Then One Life. Also has a novel on the side as well. Then One Life.
2:04
Chrissy will be in studio to talk about that, uh, talk about, uh, all things betting. Looking forward to that. And then, of course, it's Fezzik Fridays, the, uh, star of the show, Steve Fezzik, on Fezzik Fridays.
2:14
Everything on his mind. And apparently those two are gonna have to meet. Chrissy's gonna leave the studio while Fezzik gets in, and that could be exciting in and of itself.
2:21
Maybe we'll have a camera rolling, uh, outside the studio. So much to get to with all those guests, so much to get to here. I gotta pack it in real quick into the first segment.
2:29
Let me just start with football last night. Uh, NFL preseason week number one gets underway in earnest. Again, overreactions left and right.
2:38
But if you're fans or, uh, have bets, season-long bets on some of these teams, you might get excited about some of the performance.
2:44
Arizona Cardinals fans, that was-- I don't know, it might not get any better than this, but that was a heck of a performance from Jeremiah Love, 11 carries, 58 yards, 5.3 yards per carry.
2:54
Uh, three catches for 14 yards in the, uh, Cardinals game against the Raiders last night. Nothing to be upset about there. He looked great.
3:03
Raiders, on the other hand, Kirk Cousins looked great in his one drive, 10 plays, 68 yards. Um, s-68-yard drive, I should say. He completed five passes for 50 yards, 13-yard touchdown pass to Michael Mayer as well.
3:16
Um, and then in came Fernando Mendoza, first pick in the draft out of Indiana, the national championship quarterback for the Indiana Hoosiers. And first drive wasn't great, two incompletions. Raiders forced to punt.
3:26
Second drive, though, completed a 19-yard pass to rookie wideout Malik Benson, fit the ball through a really, uh, tight window, looked good there. And then after, uh, running back Mike Washington Jr.
3:36
scampered for 53 yards, Mendoza zipping the ball to, uh, to Beck for a six-yard touchdown pass on third down. Third drive then was a third and out. Uh, three and out, pardon me.
3:47
Fourth drive, just like the second drive, really, really good from Mendoza. Uh, put the Raiders into field goal range, finished the night completing 10 of 16 passes for 97 yards.
3:57
Uh, he did struggle against pressure, if you were looking for, uh, a negative. Uh, 38.9% of dropbacks, he was pressured. He went two for six for 11 yards, 42.4 passer rating, so-- and he was sacked once.
4:08
So there was good, and there was bad, but again, let's not, let's not read into too much of any of that, uh, in any of these preseason games. Just a couple other notes from last night.
4:17
Uh, Drew Aller of the Steelers, uh, led him to three touchdowns in his first appearance.
4:23
There was a, uh, third and seven in the third quarter where he connected with, uh, a fourth-round receiver, Kayden, uh, Kayden Waitlin, where 74-yard catch and run.
4:34
Two plays later, Aller kept the ball, read option, ran it into the end zone for a three-yard score.
4:39
Uh, next drive, Aller and Wetchin, uh, connected again midway through the fourth, this time in the end zone, five-yard touchdown.
4:44
Then Aller, uh, third, you know, third touchdown of the night, four-yard pass to rookie fullback Riley Nowakowski. So nice game from Drew Aller in the race to back up Aaron Rodgers.
4:55
And then the only other note I would sort of say, Dejon Stribling of the, uh, Niners, who a lot of fantasy players have seized on in the, with the, uh, Ricky Pearsall injury or surgery ending season. Um,
5:09
not addressing the knee from last year in Pearsall's case. Stribling played the first three series for the Niners, all against starting Titans D-backs, seven catches, 62 yards before calling it a night.
5:19
Uh, also included in that, a great 32-yard over-the-shoulder catch, uh, an 11-yard catch and run for a first down to set up San Francisco's first touchdown. So some of the highlights from last night.
5:30
Uh, if you are looking to bet tonight, tonight there's only three games. Dolphins, Commanders, Malik Willis going for the Dolphins. He's set to start.
5:37
Jeff Hafley, head coach, stating that the, uh, wider roster should be ready to play, expecting to include key offensive pieces like running back Devon Achane tonight, uh, for the Dolphins.
5:47
Um, skill players expected to see limited action under the new coaching staff's baseline plan, but they will play because he said, uh, Coach Hafley did noted a need for extensive reps for a younger roster.
5:58
So he wants overall starter exposure, uh, even though it's gonna be brief. Commanders, yeah, not so much. Nobody's playing.
6:04
Jayden Daniels [chuckles] embroiled in his off-the-field LSU shenanigans, which we'll get into later. Uh, not a good look. Not a good look. Uh, no big players on the Commanders expected to play.
6:16
So Dolphins, um, expected to go with starters for a few series. Commanders, not so much. Broncos-Falcons tonight.
6:23
Uh, no Bo Nix, but Broncos other starters are expected to play roughly 10 to 15 snaps, uh, in this ballgame.
6:31
Kevin Stefanski for the Falcons said he plans to give his starters some run tonight and then again in week three of the preseason. That's how Stefanski plans it for the Falcons.
6:39
So they're going to, uh, it's gonna be a brief stint tonight for the starters, but they'll play nonetheless. Uh, he says they'll see one series or about 10 plays, whichever comes first. Tua Tagovailoa will get the start.
6:50
No Michael Penix Jr. He will not play as he, uh, continues recovering from his knee injury.
6:54
And then, uh, by the way, the, uh, Broncos four-and-a-half point favorites in that ballgame against the Falcons in Atlanta tonight. Buccaneers-Jets, the third of the three.
7:02
Uh, Buccaneers not expected to play any of their regular season starters in tonight's game at MetLife. Head coach Todd Bowles say he's gonna kee- he's gonna sit everybody, including, uh, the likes of Baker Mayfield.
7:11
So you'll get Connor Bazelak and undrafted rookie Jaylen Daniels handling the snaps. Jake Browning has a back injury, so he will not be playing. So it's younger players, those fighting for roster spots.
7:21
Reuben Bain Jr., their first-round draft pick, expected to see little to no action. And unlike Tampa, Jets, they're, they've announced the starters will play at least for a series or two.
7:32
So Aaron Glenn saying, "Yeah, let's see what, let's see what Geno Smith, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson and all these guys look like for a couple, uh, s- a couple series."
7:41
Kenyan Sadiq, their first-round draft pick, not going to play. Uh, Sadiq with a, uh, core surgery hernia issue this off season.
7:50
By the way, I don't know if, uh, by the way, Jets favored by five and a half in this ballgame against the Bucs. A lot of that informed by the way the coaches are handling it with starters tonight.
7:58
But, uh, the word out of the Jets camp, the big word, is that their first-round draft pick, David Bailey, absolutely having his way with the Bucs offensive line in joint practices this off season.
8:06
So they're excited about that. Those are the three games tonight, preseason. More games, of course, tomorrow. Tennis, whole bunch to talk about here. Yesterday, Iga Swiatek wins the Canadian Open.
8:17
It's her eighth 1,000 out of 10, where she's won 12 1,000s, 'cause she's won some multiple times. But of the 10 1,000 tournaments, that's the level right before Slams, this is the eighth different one she's won.
8:29
She beats Elena Rybakina in straight sets. Um, I immediately after the first set yesterday grabbed some seven to ones on Iga to win the US Open that were available at Skins. She wins it in straights.
8:42
BetMGM had seven and one available. I'm not sure what's available. Best price, shop around.
8:47
But I said it, uh, earlier in the week, her match against Marta Kostyuk this past Saturday, something unlocked after the first set. You could almost see it live if you're a, a keen observer of her,
9:00
and it all, all the, whatever was happening in between her ears seemed to just disappear, and it was vintage Iga. I'm making her sound like she's 40 years old. She's only 25.
9:09
But I made the bet seven to one, Iga Swiatek to win the US Open. Zach Cohen, our buddy, said that he found some eight to ones. This was yesterday, so shop for the best price. Um, get it while you can.
9:20
I'm not sure you can still get the seven to one or eight to one, but if you can get anything above five to one, man, grab it. Uh, yesterday, three and one in tennis. We had four, uh, we had four picks on the show.
9:30
Three and one, including a plus 230 winner on Martin Landaluce. Um, Landaluce I believe is the way you pronounce that. So big day in tennis. The only person that lost for us was Adrian Mannarino.
9:41
Hit on Taylor Townsend yesterday as well. Hit on Dion Pari. We have one holdover pick from yesterday, Tallon Griekspoor. Uh, you can still bet that.
9:50
I, again, VSiN subscribers, it pays to be a subscriber, vsin.com/picks, because honestly, that's the only price right now that is anywhere close to where I gave it out to subscribers at VSiN.
10:01
Griekspoor, I got at minus 101. It's about minus 105. These others, man, I don't think you can play them anymore. In fact, if you're doing this right, I would just suggest you, you shouldn't play them anymore.
10:11
But again, those interested for, it pays to subscribe. It's sort of my billboard for why you should subscribe at vsin.com/picks. Cindy Kraus on the ladies' side, minus 115 last night is what I gave it at, at.
10:24
She's minus 145 now, 30 cents CLV. What could go wrong? But I wouldn't play her at that price.
10:30
And then on the men's side, two plays, Michael Zheng minus 130 versus Fabian Marajan, and Coleman Wong minus 131 versus Daniel Altmaier. Minus 130 and minus 131 have turned into minus 154 and minus 172.
10:47
So I don't think we can play any of those three anymore, I'm sorry to say. Again, pays to be a subscriber, vsin.com/picks. Sorry about that. We don't usually play four favorites in a day.
10:57
It's kind of a rare day anyway, and three of those have just absolutely soared off the pl- off the, uh, off the page. Um, Detroit Tigers win another series. Beat the Guardians in the rubber match yesterday.
11:08
A shutout with no strikeouts. Unbelievable. There's only been nine of those since 1995. Incredible. Tigers have had three of them, by the way.
11:17
That was the first one, I believe, in nine years, uh, maybe 12 years, if I'm not mistaken. Tigers win another series this month. We have them at 60 to one, of course. They are now eight and three.
11:27
They're two wins behind the Tampa Bay Ray leading August 10 and one Rays. Um, all looking good. Now it's a three-game set against the White Sox in Detroit.
11:38
Again, one and the, Tigers right now are on the inside looking out of the American League playoff picture. They'd be the third wild card, but they're two and a half games behind the White Sox.
11:48
You sweep, you're in the division lead, looking at least to win two of three, not only for themselves to be as close as one and a half after this series, but also for our bet, of course. Coming back on a numbers game.
12:00
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12:09
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12:19
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12:27
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12:35
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:51
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis. It's the sharp plays. We invite you to check 'em out. Real-time global betting info, alerts directly from the pros.
12:59
Scan the QR code on your screen for more, sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander with Chrissy Andrews in studio. The band is back together again, triumphant return to the network. Uh, we get tweets of beating the book.
13:12
Most of these are, are on you. Uh, Dalgo, uh, I was on Cincinnati, uh, radio or, or YouTube channel, The Crown, this morning.
13:20
So he says, "Seeing Gil with James Rabion on The Crown was a blending of two worlds I didn't expect. Good," blank, he says. Thank you. Uh, thank you to them for having me on to talk Cincinnati Open.
13:29
Uh, this is from, let's see, Jay Green. "Gil, you gotta guess a, you gotta guess a line. Any line, doesn't matter, but we need to know- [laughs]... if Chrissy likes your number better. Let's go."
13:39
[laughs] Thank you, Jay Green. That's a throwback to the old Guess the Lines Day, uh, Days. Bushy Head, "Welcome back, Chris. Does Chrissy have any thoughts on the horse racing scandal?" Are you familiar with this?
13:49
Oh, oh, yeah. So we had Peter Fornatale on earlier. I know. I miss Peter 'cause I, I actually gotta get in touch with Peter 'cause in this book- Yeah...
13:56
I have a whole chapter on horse racing, on my thoughts about horse racing. Oh. Some good and bad, you know, I, you know... [laughs] Where does, where does this scandal rank in the pantheon of horse racing scandals?
14:07
Well, I think we're still kind of going through it. We are. You know? Yeah. I mean, uh, the, they, it came out yesterday that they gave him some illegal drugs, but it was a month before the race. Oh.
14:16
So I don't know how... I- I don't know the physiology of how that works. You know? Right. I don't know, but there's something going on, I know that, so, um...
14:24
But I, I think before we start making, you know, concrete accusations, I think there's still a lot of investigation that needs to be done.
14:31
Chris Heath, "One of my favorite then one day stories is the huge pick five ticket at Bay Meadows where Chrissy's father- Well, it was pick six... pick six, [laughs] where Chrissy's father-in-law gets in on the action.
14:41
[laughs] Yeah. That's the one where s- where, is it Pam who was, who was, uh, cheering, and you're like, "Oh, no." That was, well, my first wife who was cheering. Oh, your first- Yeah... I'm sorry. Yeah. I apologize.
14:50
Uh, let's see. [clears throat] Pardon me. [clears throat] MoneyGunGus, "This brings back so much nostalgia and great memories from the Monday Football lines. How does Chris feel about his Steelers this year? Great show."
15:00
Well, they sure looked good last night, but I'm on with a bunch of guys, you know, from Pittsburgh. There's like 20 of us. Yeah. Those boys. You know, and I'm a Penn State fan, so I thought Aller was fantastic.
15:10
He looked terrific. Uh, I, I, you know, I don't wanna jump on, you know, knocking James Franklin, but I don't think he ever really developed quarterbacks. He had Christian Hackenberg, too, if you remember. I do.
15:21
Was- Who could forget? Well, okay. Yeah. But coming out of high school, he was like the number one quarterback. Yeah. And he never developed. And I, and- Yeah...
15:27
you know, they said the same thing about Aller, he just never developed under Franklin. Well, maybe he's developing under... Listen, McCarthy, we could knock him on...
15:34
But, you know, he's had some great quarterback play under his tutelage, and maybe he found...
15:39
Well, I mean, I heard some guys, I'm not a scout or anything, they said Aller's footwork wa- was bad, but now it looks like it's much improved. That might be something that he's- Yeah...
15:48
um, worked on, but he looks great. Maybe. I don't know. I'm gonna... I'm cautiously optimistic. How's that sound? Um, you can't get away from a, from a bookmaking, uh, question, though. Yeah.
15:56
Bobby, Bobby, uh, Ricigliano, and thank you for the question, Bobby. First row, mez. "Can you ask Mr. Andrews," you're Mr. Andrews, by the way- Yeah... "about the two and a half..."
16:04
Oh, that just got knocked off my screen just there. Uh, "Can you ask Mr. Andrews about the two and a half and three and a half point line for the NFL- Yeah... years ago at South Point?
16:11
To clarify, that if the line opens at plus two and a half and stays all week, you take the dog. If the line opens and stays all week at minus three and a half, you take the favorite. Thank you both."
16:19
Yeah, no, that's a great question, and that's something I get all the time. Listen, obviously if a game's sitting at two and a half, if you can get three, go get the three. Mm-hmm. You know?
16:27
But the, the thing is, i- if the sharp money was on the favorite, that money, it'd be three everywhere, but it's not.
16:35
So whenever you see a three, you know, the wise guys take it, or maybe they're betting the money line or something like that.
16:40
So the right side, and you know, the right side loses all the time, but, you know, probably, you know, 58% of the time the right side would be the dog in that situation.
16:50
Conversely, if a number's sitting at three and a half all week and never goes to three, and once again, of course you wanna lay three if you have the opportunity. Mm-hmm. Um, that...
17:00
A- and sometimes you'll see a game that's like three and a half, the money line might be like a $1.90 or something like that. That's a strong three and a half.
17:07
That means that the favorite's the right side, you know, a- according to the sharp money.
17:12
And again, probably, you know, you're gonna lose 40, 42% of the time playing that, but the right side is probably the favorite in that situation. Very interesting.
17:21
I, I love some of your old, uh, some of the old tenets that you've learned through the, the decades that we wouldn't necessarily know instinctively like that.
17:27
Well, I was on something, you know, this was about a month ago, and guys were asking about, like, a lot of new guys in the, you know, that we saw on Bet Bash, you know? Well, you weren't there. I wasn't there.
17:35
And what a... Anyway, I said, "A lot of these young kids, their, their IQ is certainly much, much higher than mine, you know?" Yeah. But they don't have the wisdom that I have mo- from experience. From experience.
17:46
You know, from experience. Yeah. Um- You know, just being around this business a long time. By the way, I call you my mishpacha. You're the, uh, sports book director of the South Point. I, I bury the headline.
17:54
You are in the sports gambling... Let me just, let me be distinct, uh- Yeah... make a distinction. This is the Sports Betting Hall of Fame here. No, I'm in the Sports Betting Hall.
18:03
You're in the sports- This is the sports gambling one. Oh, right. The, you're in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame. Right. And so Spanky had to name his the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame. Right. Correct. Right.
18:10
So you're a Hall of Famer, for God sakes. I should, I should have introduced you like Joe, Joe Buck introduces Troy Aikman- Oh, yeah. [laughs]... with the Hall of Famer Chrissy Andrews. Yeah. All right.
18:18
Then One Life- Yeah... is the third book. This is the new book. Yeah. Um, I immediately read the last chapter first. Okay. [laughs] That was a VSiN chapter. Yeah, it's a, that's a chapter on VSiN. Yeah. I told the truth.
18:30
What is... W- 'cause what is... How do you encapsulate one life into one book? Uh, it's hard. You know, and I, again, I, you know, I followed Anthony's. I kept, kept this under 90,000 words.
18:41
I coulda had nine billion words, [laughs] you know? Yeah. But I kept it under 90,000. Really, the inspiration for the book, what, what started me on this path, was my wife had that brain tumor.
18:52
And there, I think it's the third chapter in the book, Pamela, my wife. And, uh, while... I mean, you have to kind of read it, but it, it's, it's hard for me to read it.
19:04
It's very touching, you know, what we went through. And that was really- You were telling me off air the other day when we- Yeah...
19:10
we were hanging out at the South Point, you were telling me that's, like, the one chapter you can't reread. I can't reread it. And I, and, and her...
19:17
W- we were sending out an email, 'cause she had a lot of people asking. So this was, like, you know, three, four months of me sending out an email every night. And fortunately, her cousin kept all the emails.
19:28
So I had to r- I had to reread those to write the chapter, and it's hard for me to get through them, 'cause sh- what happened to her is, was devastating. Mm. You know? And when I...
19:40
And I, I told you, my, my writing process, the way I write something is, you know, e- even in my head I know it's just a draft, and then go back and add adjectives and similes and whatever.
19:53
Uh, but that one I, I couldn't do. And I knew it while I was writing it. I said, "I just have to write this as best as I can the first time through." Mm. 'Cause I'm not gonna be able to go through this thing again.
20:03
And even now, I, I, I'll go to reread it and I can't get through it. You know? It's just, it's hard for me. It's really difficult. Both of you have, uh, both of you have been dealt tough cards in- We-...
20:12
in the health department... we have. Yeah. And, uh, so that, that, that was probably the inspiration. And when I started, I started thinking, "I wonder if I could write a book on this?"
20:22
And, uh, I got to about 6,000 words in that, uh, chapter a- and I said, "You know, I really, I can't make a book out of this." Now, do you know Mary Roach? Do you know who that is, by any chance? Sounds familiar. Yeah.
20:33
She, she's written, um, some science books, but to, to guys like us- Right... who are not scientists, you know? [laughs] Right. You know? But I mean... And I've read two or three of her books, they're really good.
20:43
If, if this was her writing this book, she could get 300 pages out of it, going through the history of, you know, h- how they operate on brain tumors and et cetera. By the way, she had...
20:56
I don't know, know if I mentioned it, it was a brain tumor that she had, and it was not cancerous. And as, as soon as I found out it wasn't cancer, I says, "Oh, this is gonna be a walk in the park." No.
21:05
There's a lot of other variables that I kind of go through, and it seemed like every one [laughs] for her was bad. You know? Uh, but anyway, she's- But she's doing gr- just to let everybody know- Yeah...
21:14
she's doing great now. She's doing well. Yeah. I mean, she lives her full life. Yeah. You know? And, uh, there's certain things that she has to deal with, you know, that she never fully recovered. Mm-hmm. I mean, she...
21:25
When, when she went in, she was, uh, she was the retail manager of, uh, Moana Nursery. And anybody knows in, in Reno, that's the biggest nursery in Reno. I mean, she was a, an executive, you know?
21:35
And then, you know, she just, uh, you know, she couldn't do that anymore, you know? And even now there's some things, like she can't drive at night, and some things like that.
21:44
You know, there's some, there's issues that, that have lingered, but overall she's doing well. So that was the inspiration that got me going. Then of course [laughs] I had my episode of, uh- Yes... you know?
21:54
I mean, and- Hey, man, you were, you were- [laughs]... kind of touch and go there for a while. Oh, man. There's a picture of me in the book, and you can see, "Oh, man, he don't look so good," [laughs] you know?
22:03
Well, I also remember... I mean, not to, not to be, like, I, you know, too, too s- serious about things, but yeah, I remember you even saying to me at some points, like, "Gil, Gil, if they... If I... You can just give...
22:12
If you can guarantee me 10 more years right now, I'd take it." Oh my God, yeah. Oh. Man, they gave me, 2017, they gave me two years to live. Yeah. And by, and by 2019, that was two years later.
22:24
I mean, I always say I was in my last couple of months. Pam says, "You were in your last couple of weeks. You weren't gonna make it any further." And I had the bone marrow transplant. You were green, man.
22:33
I was, you know, in bad, bad shape. Yeah. And now, some people tell me about it now. They don't wanna tell me about it when you're going through it. Oh, of course. What are we gonna say? Yeah.
22:39
But I've seen some guys with cancer, which, you know... And by the way, my, uh, MDS, the, the thing I had, it, uh, if you go look it up, some people define it as cancer and some people don't.
22:51
When I asked my doctors at USC, and I talk about them, God bless them, they said, "Well, I don't know about anybody else, but we treat it as cancer." [laughs] You know, that's...
22:59
And by the way, USC at this point, and this is even before I was con- After two years, you're considered cured, you know? Even before I was part of the statistics, they are now the number one bone marrow transplant, uh,
23:12
um, uh, you know, success rate in America- Mm... which, and, and maybe the world. You know? So I was very lucky to fall into their hands. Yeah. And it was, it's, and it's a painful thing also. Oh.
23:23
Like, I just remember you going through that. Those first couple of weeks, it... I don't know how much- Thankfully we'll, we'll, we'll come back... yeah, we got a couple more things we need to get to. Yeah.
23:29
There's, there's much more in this book than just that stuff, though. You're right. Exactly. Uh, Then One Year, which again, does end with a VSiN chapter.
23:36
Chrissy Andrews, the Hall of Famer, on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget our VSiN Pro Early Bird Special offer.
23:51
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24:13
Now, usually, uh, I go to, uh, the old Twitter machine here at this point and read off some tweets, uh, that are dedicated to this show.
24:19
But a bit of a firestorm was started this morning on the show that preceded us on By The Books with Dave Ross and Jensen Lewis, and the feed is overrun with some stuff.
24:28
Uh, we'll get the background here from Jensen on it. Jensen Lewis joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow Jensen on Twitter at jlew50. You gotta write out the 50, though.
24:37
Don't just put 5-0 in there. Gotta spell it out. Jensen, good morning to you. What did you do this morning? What happened here? Uh, ver- always great to be with you. I, so I'll set it up.
24:46
I, I was, uh, co-hosting on LV Network Radio yesterday, and we had a chance to interview Minnesota Twins manager Derek Shelton. Uh, he has a weekly appearance, uh, on our Loud Out show.
24:57
And he is live, Gil, from the outfield of the Field of Dreams in Dyersville, 'cause obviously the Twins and the Phillies are playing there, and kind enough to give us the expanse of everything.
25:08
We're talking Moonlight Graham, you know, talking the house. You can, you know, all the things that you can do and soaking in the atmosphere.
25:15
And of course, in his week before, uh, a great colleague, uh, and, and friend, Ryan Spillborgs and CJ Nikowski asked him, "Okay, are you play catch or have a catch when you're talking about it?"
25:29
And so I just threw it out into, uh, you know, the Xverse, Twitterverse, whatever we're calling it now, this morning, tagging all of our, our weekday talent and, and our weekend talent.
25:39
Okay, you know, are you team play catch? Are you team have a catch? And I have to say, uh, with about, uh, 50% of the precincts reporting here- [laughs]... uh, Gil, we, we are too close to call- Come on...
25:53
on, on- No, you're not... which way it is. Are you really? I, I [laughs] It's too close to call? I- This is, this is not a- I think we're- Jensen, this is not a debate...
26:00
I think we're leaning, I think we're leaning play catch here. That's at least mine. Leaning? What are you, Gil? Are you have a catch or play catch? Okay, let me just say this. I, I probably didn't say either.
26:10
I probably was like, "Hey, you wanna just, you wanna go outside?" And we just have the mitts and the glo- and the ball. We probably understand- Yeah... what we're doing anyway, so I probably don't say either.
26:17
But I will tell you what we absolutely- Okay... have never said in our lives, nor have ever heard growing up, was have a catch. What is that? Nobody says that. Come on, stop it.
26:25
What a, what American-born human ever said that? It doesn't, it doesn't happen. It's, it's play ca- You, let's, let's g- let's go and, yeah, let's go play catch.
26:35
Uh, play catch sounds stupid, too, by the way, but I would take that over have a catch. [laughs] Uh, Jonathan Von Tobel with a winning, uh, response to Dustin Sweetelson so far.
26:44
Dustin Sweetelson, I don't know if this is to stir the pot further, uh, but Dustin did chime in and he said, "Have a catch. Playing catch makes the coolest thing in the world sound lame."
26:55
And then JVT with a, a very firm response of, "I'd understand you had a good summer of Swede, but let's not try too hard and be contrarian on purpose." Uh, so we have [laughs] I don't know- I-...
27:07
if this will sweep the rest of the day, uh, Gil, but I apologize for the feed being, uh, littered with responses one way or the other.
27:13
This is one of those, I'll, I'll leave it at this, 'cause I don't wanna, I don't wanna belabor it, but this is one of those where I don't even think it's a binary choice.
27:18
It's like when people say, "Do you say soda or do you say pop?" I'm like, "I don't think I say either." I was like, "You want a Coke?" Right? And I say, I think with- Yeah...
27:25
uh, I think I'll, I would say to my buddy, "Billy, you wanna go out, throw the ball?" I think I would say that. I don't think I'd say either of them. But anyway. There you go. But have a catch. Perfect.
27:31
Get it, get out of here. Have a catch. Nobody. I think we settled that. So good. Before we get into your plays, Jensen.
27:37
By the way, thank you for joining us, 'cause I know you just did the show, and so this is, this is extra time for you. Um, and we, and it, it's added time.
27:44
You don't know how much the refs are gonna put on the clock sometimes with this stuff. Right. So I appreciate it. Um, the Detroit- Yeah... I, I just seized on the Detroit Tigers briefly there before the break.
27:53
Once again- Mm... I don't know. I, I have them for most wins in August at 60 to 1. They are two wins behind the 10-and-1 Rays, who thankfully are out of Sacramento now, so they can actually go play real baseball teams.
28:03
Um, but I'm just curious, 'cause Joe Sheehan and I have a little bit of a disagreement on this, and I'm curious where you stand on this. At the trade deadline, when I gave out that pick- Mm-hmm...
28:12
I said, "Here's what the, I believe the Tigers are gonna do." And this was as, this was because two years ago they traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers at this point.
28:20
By the way, they end up getting Flaherty back, by the way, as it turned out. But they traded him to the Dodgers two years ago, and they accidentally made the playoffs anyway.
28:29
And I think with that as a backdrop, I think what I said was, "They're going to trade Tarik Skubal 'cause it's the responsible thing to do," but I actually think- Right...
28:36
they believe they're going to make the playoffs, that they can thread this needle. Joe sa- Joe says that, no. W- which side do you come on?
28:45
Oh, I, I think they do, and it won't shock me if they contend for this division title by the end- No, no, no. He believes they will contend. The, the point is- Okay...
28:52
do you think that their mindset was, "We're still going for it even though we're trading him"? 100%, and, and the, you, you illustrated it perfectly, the responsible thing to do. We did not pull- Right...
29:04
you know, a, an Angels of years past by not trading Shohei Ohtani and thinking that all was going to end well. It did not, and we obviously know where they are as a franchise right now. The responsible thing was done.
29:15
They also knew, though, Gil, they were getting Jackson Joe back- Yes... to bolster that rotation, and then, you know, having the emergence, I think, of Troy Melton and Cater Montero to go along with Robert Valdez.
29:27
You had, you had the depth, in so many words, and, and the personnel in a very weak central division. And as you know, we've talked about it for months here, it is a wide open American League. So 100% think they contend.
29:41
I love your 60 to 1. I have Tampa at 10 to 1- Ooh, nice... uh, for most wins in August. I even couldn't imagine a perfect road trip.
29:48
You would, you would think you'd slip up somewhere, but the way that offense is going, going from Coors to Sacramento, uh, job well done by that pitching staff being able to limit both offenses, uh, for the home teams.
30:00
But yes, Detroit Is hitting. And now, Gil, this is a larger sample here even before the All-Star break, but more so the start of the second half into where we are currently.
30:10
The offense is now hitting the way I think they envisioned it would at the beginning of the year. Mm-hmm. And it's coincided with this rotation turn in and turn out.
30:19
They have the number one rotation ERA in baseball right now. Uh, and, and I know there's... part of Tarik Skubal is involved in that, but still, that's a credit to this group as of late.
30:29
They have the number one, and the lowest, I believe, team ERA in the month of August at 220. There's only three teams that have a team ERA under three. That's Detroit, Atlanta, and Boston.
30:41
So yep, they're right in this thing and, and they're gonna be a handful. Yeah. And again, by, by sequencing, by Pythagoras, by things that I look at, they should be 20 games over 500 at this point. Literally 20 games.
30:52
Oof. Wow. And they had ex- they're expected well, but which obviously Tarik Skubal had nothing to do with, hitting was top five in all of Major League Baseball heading into the month. Right.
31:00
So anyway, let's get to your picks. Uh, by the way, Jackson Jobe, who you referred to, hit triple digits on the gun in his first start back from Tommy John.
31:08
Uh, he is on the hill today against the White Sox in the first of a three-game set, which is huge in the AL Central, with the Tigers two and a half back in, now inhabiting the third wild card position. Unbelievable.
31:18
Cardinals- It is. Uh- Yeah. Go ahead. I'm sorry. No, I was gonna say, I, just, it's unbelievable to see where this division has been.
31:24
And considering that Tigers blew the 15 and a half game lead last year, and they may come back from double digits this year, uh, you can't write that script. Just unbelievable what they've done.
31:34
Cardinals, Cubs at Wrigley, day game at Wrigley. As the folks who are in the Midwest and who love the Cardinals and Cubs say, it's the greatest rivalry in all of sports.
31:42
Which I always snicker at, 'cause I'm like, "Really? Is it?" Not even the best in baseball, I wouldn't think. But they think it's that. Cubs are minus 175 favorites. Cubs having a great month.
31:51
How do your, how are you playing this one? Uh, I played an alternate run line, uh, at minus one at $1.24. Cubs last eight of their 10 wins at home, Gil, since July 1st, have been by at least two runs.
32:05
They get Matthew Liberatore on the other side, who's got about a 6 ERA in his last four starts, and the Cardinals have lost three of those last four. So pretty straight up here.
32:14
I'll ride the hot offense, albeit hat tip to Cade Cavalli, was absolutely filthy yesterday. Had that no-hitter late into the game.
32:21
I like the Cubs offense early and often against Matthew Liberatore this afternoon at Wrigley. Like the Cardinals, Marlins and Reds are on the outside looking in of the NL wild card picture.
32:31
You have a total play in this ball game today.
32:35
I usually don't go unders at Great American Ball Park, but when I get this kind of swing and miss capability, Gil, with Sandy Alcantara and Chase Burns going head-to-head, uh, I'll take it.
32:43
By the way, Sandy Alcantara, three straight scoreless starts in which he's allowed just 11 hits in his last 20 innings. 10 total runs combined in those three starts between those teams.
32:54
Under eight and a half is gonna be the play because we get Chase Burns on the other side. Uh, just a, a smidge under a 3 ERA his last four starts.
33:01
But Gil, nine straight starts at Great American Ball Park allowing three earned runs or fewer. Alcantara might not be the best pitcher in baseball, but man, when he's good, he is good. That's for sure.
33:11
Pirates and the Red Sox. Red Sox break the five-game skid yesterday. Um, they are taking on the Pirates. Pirates have had it, uh, not so good of late. You're on the Red Sox here or the Pirates?
33:23
I like the Pirates at, at a nice money line price here. Home dog here, Bubba Chandler, and, and the way he's pitched, especially his last five at PNC. Pirates have won four of those last five.
33:33
Jake Bennett has trailed off a little bit, starter for the Red Sox. Last four in ERA over five. He's given up 26 hits in 23 innings. Red Sox have looked vulnerable. Toronto exposed him a little bit.
33:44
I think you get the power pitching of Bubba Chandler and that big offensive outburst for the Pirates in the series finale. I think they get it going here tonight. All right. And then the Dodgers, Dodgers game tonight.
33:53
Uh, you have a total play in this one. The Dodgers, Brewers, where the Brewers took the first in dramatic fashion yesterday. Uh, Edwin Diaz, thanks for blowing my under eight and a half yesterday. Yeah, really.
34:02
Let's go right back to it, though. Robert Gasser, last four starts, a 3 ERA, but three of his last four starts, Gil, have gone under the total. Yoshi Yamamoto on the other side. Buck 88 ERA last four starts.
34:13
Dodgers only averaging 3.7 runs a game in August. Under eight, let's rock and roll. Let's see another low-scoring one tonight. Jensen, thank you for staying late. Appreciate it. And get have a catch out of here.
34:23
Get out of here. [laughs] Get a catch. Thanks, Gil. Get off my, get off my feed. Thank you, Jensen. Appreciate it. [laughs] Thank you so much.
34:30
Uh, Jensen and Dave Ross, By the Books, each and every Monday through Friday that precedes us here on the network. Horse racing scandal next. Let's go.
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35:09
Um, ladies and gentlemen, this man is, uh, not only an Eclipse Award winner in his own right and the US analyst at Sky Sports Racing, but he's also the son of legendary disc jockey Peter Fornatale Sr., who used to work at WNEW.
35:24
Uh, it's Peter Fornatale Jr. I don't know if he goes with the Jr., but it's our buddy Peter Fornatale to help us through a horse racing scandal. How you doing, Peter? I am doing really well.
35:33
You know, it's always a pleasure for me to be on the airwaves with you. And yeah, not a junior. We had different middle names, so I've been able to eschew, as you like to say- Oh... the junior tag for my life. Very nice.
35:45
Eschewing the junior tag. Okay, I don't wanna, I don't wanna waste any time because this is a very detailed story. We don't usually on this show go crazy horse racing, or certainly not global horse racing scandals.
35:57
But you wrote a fabulous piece about this. I mean, it was super detailed. It was everything anybody needed to know, and you were kind enough to, uh, give us 10 minutes here.
36:05
Can you Explain it to us, to, to quote Denzel Washington in the movie Philadelphia, could you explain it to us like I'm a two-year-old? [laughs] Start from the beginning. Speak slowly. This is fascinating.
36:17
It's a wild story, and it's a developing story. We just had a big break in it yesterday. Ooh. And this will go on to have many more chapters, but here's where we are.
36:29
Last Sunday, I was pulling one of my shifts at Sky Sports Racing, and I saw a most unusual betting pattern on a horse that I had just liked off the paper.
36:41
Uh, this horse, very unusual in, with, with bookmakers to see a horse go in a matter of minutes from, you know, 13 to two, so more than a six-to-one shot, all the way down into two to one.
36:52
You see that kind of thing in tote betting, but not with bookies. And I just filed that away in my brain, like, "That's interesting."
36:59
Two races later, the same trainer who had sent out that winner sent out another horse that had a similar profile to the one who'd just won. What was the profile?
37:12
These were horses shipping in to Saratoga, uh, from out of town, off of long layoffs, all associated with one trainer.
37:21
They did not all run in the name Angel Quiros, but they had all been associated with him in recent races. Well, it turns out it wasn't just those two. There were eight of them overall. Six of them ran on Sunday.
37:35
Four of them won, and then there were two more horses with this sa- same sort of profile entered on Monday that, uh, racing officials ended up scratching.
37:47
Not quite sure what authority they were able to do that on, but those, the last two did not run.
37:51
Well, I started digging in, making phone calls, got a lot of gambling contacts around the world, and got the news from somebody familiar with the world of English bookmaking that there had been, surprise, surprise, large wagers connecting- Hmm...
38:08
all eight of these horses. Parlays in England are not like parlays in the States, but I think this isn't too down the rabbit hole to explain to you and your audience. The way they have parlays over there
38:22
is you c- you can do bets.
38:24
There's a bet, for example, called a Lucky 15, which is 15 different wagers connecting four legs of a parlay, where you're betting the win, you're betting the d- the, what they call the doubles, which is, you know, parlaying two of them, trebles, parlaying three of them, and, and then another bet parlaying all four.
38:43
What it turned out was tho- tho- those type of multiple bets were made across all of these different runners.
38:51
Now, what's fascinating about this is the way these bets were made, they weren't attached to a single liability figure the way that you would expect with a traditional bookmaker.
39:03
Usually, a bookmaker gives you odds on a parlay. You know what those odds are right away. You, you get a ticket saying, "Here's what you stand to win."
39:11
Well, in English bookmaking, especially on these American races, they don't price them up in advance in the same way. They agree to honor certain bets based on what they call SP, which is starting price.
39:27
Basically a closing price, not entirely dissimilar from how tote betting works. So that's how they were able to not detect the fact, and we don't have confirmed numbers on this.
39:37
What I have confirmed is on Sunday they were taken for at least mid-six figures. Some estimate it way higher than that.
39:44
And that had those horses won on Sunday, excuse me, Monday, the last two legs of the parlay, that liability would've gone into the millions. Wow.
39:52
But because of the way these bets were placed, you don't have to bet a whole lot. You don't have to outlay more than 50 or 100 pounds to get to those kind of numbers if you do it, um, cleverly, like they did.
40:04
Apparently, it was across multiple betting shops. They were American tourists.
40:10
They had American IDs, and they were able to bet these relatively small multiple bets, 10, uh, uh, excuse me, but 50 or 100 were the estimates I heard on the, the, the size of the bets being made, but they accumulated to where they were on the hooks for, for millions of dollars.
40:27
Can, can I inter- You're hearing stories about other money being bet offshore, et cetera. I haven't heard any confirmation of that, but I can confirm that these bookies in London were, were hit pretty hard.
40:36
Let me interrupt, and then I'll let you riff some more. But, uh, a few follow-up questions.
40:40
You already answered my first one, which is if those l- if those horses were allowed to run on Monday and won, how much more would it have been? You already answered.
40:45
It would gone s- into the stratosphere, into the millions. Uh, Angel Quiros, the trainer in question, does he have a nefarious background of any kind?
40:56
Well, this is where it gets really fascinating, and it relates right to the new development in the story that, uh, that I'm gonna tell you about right now, which is I, when I researched him, he didn't have any suspicious positives in his past.
41:09
But just yesterday it became public knowledge that there was a dirty test for one of his horses, an out-of-competition test on a horse back on July 10th. Hmm. I...
41:21
[laughs] And this is where it gets really fascinating, and we're, and we're hitting a moving target. I don't know why that wasn't made public until yesterday.
41:30
I do believe that information is supposed to be released sooner than that. But this is where we're getting into the weeds and have to figure out all the particulars.
41:37
But it makes you wonder, did he know he was going to get popped for a dirty test and decided to put this coup into action, or whoever he's working with? We can't say. It's, it's, it's unknowable.
41:51
But the timing is wild that this guy who did not have any medication, significant medication violations now we know had one back on July 10th. And it's a weird one, too.
42:02
It's for a substance, I think it's called albuterol, that, like everyone on the backside would know you cannot administer to a horse without getting caught.
42:10
Like- Is there- There's definitely a lot more to be connected in here. But what we know for sure is these eight horses, they were set up to run well. Six of them basically did. Four of them won.
42:22
Bookies got taken for a lot of money, and we're left with a whole lot of questions I got, and I got some of them. Here are some questions. Uh, are the six races on Sunday, where four of those six won.
42:32
And by the way, I love the defense, "Hey, these two didn't. I'm not doing anything wrong." Um. [laughs] Where they, they were at a short span of time, right? Like in 90 minutes all those races were run, right?
42:42
So it was like this- Yeah... just a bundle. You couldn't even react to them, correct? It was, it was kinda crazy. The, there was... Yeah, I mean, it really was within, I think, a three-hour window. I have that.
42:53
I believe that's all detailed in the At The Races piece. Yes. It's not sticking to the top of my brain right now.
42:57
And the nature of it, and the nature of these races being parlays was, was fascinating because, you know, at, that means as you go on, they became more and more important.
43:08
And I think part of the reason for that big money on the Classic Rock horse, I can only assume that s- funny enough, since those bets were struck at SP, we didn't, they didn't know what they were liable for.
43:22
Some of that w- win money I saw on that horse was probably from the bookmaking industry itself, 'cause by betting that Classic Rock horse, they were accomplishing two things.
43:31
They were, obviously they were laying off money and recouping some of their liability if that horse wins, but they're also making that starting price smaller by betting more on the horse, therefore reducing their liability while recouping.
43:46
It's, nobody from the bookmaking industry is really talking about this on the record. I, I, I think that's- This is, yeah... they're, they're, they're pretty laconic about it.
43:52
But I, I, I have to assume that's what went on there. Two final questions. Is it your professional opinion or your, or your professional instinct
44:00
that this is an absolutely, this i- this looks ter- it is a absolutely a coordinated attack? One, uh, a coordinated attack, one trainer, six horses. Clearly something nefarious is going on with the juicing or whatever.
44:13
Obviously, and all, and most of the money being bet in Britain, um, makes it even more difficult for what is already a murky regulatory system with horse racing in the US to even, to even do anything about it.
44:24
You believe that, that this is some- some- this was absolutely coordinated, you think? Well, it was definitely coordinated.
44:31
The question we had until yesterday, you know, there's nothing illegal about betting on your own horses and, and setting up a horse to, to run well through legitimate means of training.
44:40
And while I will admit I never thought that was the most likely scenario, I was sort of hoping for that.
44:45
You know, I'm a person in life who wants to root for the, for the wise guys, wants to root for the bettors- Right... if they're doing it on the level, right?
44:52
But I think yesterday's knowledge about the guy popping a positive shows that that's naive, unfortunately. Yeah. And yeah, th- th- this is, uh, now long, long...
45:02
I, I mean, it's, it's certain to be nefarious at this point. And here's the last thing, though, in all of this. So they, they made their bets. They won their money. You can't get that money back. They won their money.
45:12
You can't take the money back, right, at this point? That's, it's over, right? I believe that is the case from, from the money from those English bookmakers.
45:20
What's happening with any money they supposedly bet offshore or books elsewhere, I'm not certain, but I think they're gonna be able to collect. It sounds like the bookies are gonna pay out on that money. Yeah.
45:30
It's a longer conversation as to why that might be the right thing from a commercial point of view. Beer gotta run. It's fascinating, man. Yeah, thank you so much. That is fascinating.
45:38
The world of horse racing right here on The Numbers Game. Coming back.
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