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Aug 15, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 15, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 15, 2024
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44:24
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So many ways to take us in. We appreciate the way that you are doing so. It is Gil Alexander.
0:20
It is Kelly Midlin, live from Bar Canada here at the D. What's up, man? Downtown Las Vegas. How you doing? You good, man? I'm good. Yeah? Had to readjust. You look a little fidgety over there.
0:29
I had to readjust the headset. Okay. I didn't realize, uh- Uh-huh... the hair was looking weird with it. Your hair looks pe- y- dude, you never have one hair out of place. What are you talking about? Right.
0:37
Th- thanks, man. I- it bothers me, though. I appreciate that, but I'm going, I'm going to the barber shop today. I think I'm gonna, I think I'm gonna cut it, cut it short.
0:43
I'm not, I'm not going JVT short, but I'm going shorter. Oh, man. Are you really? Y- yeah. This- Okay... li- as you kinda hinted at, like, this sculpting takes a while every morning.
0:51
Well, the headphones have forever changed the- Th- that, that is true. Yeah. It's like- That's a- sadly true... it's like topiary now, not a hair, not a haircut. Uh, coming up on the show, Crack Man, Zach and Crack.
1:01
It is Thursday. Zach Cohen with, uh, his tennis thoughts. Also, Bill Krackenbergers unscripted, an hour number two, exclusively here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
1:11
Uh, Kelly did something, uh, kinda cool. We're gonna go through, we're just, how many different ways can we sort of analyze the NFL betting season from a betting perspective?
1:20
I thought your idea was a great one, which is let us isolate, you and I, a team that is minus 150 or higher to miss the playoffs in the make miss market, and a team that is plus 150 or longer to make the playoffs.
1:36
We'll do that coming up on the show, which is kinda cool. We'll also take a stab at some, uh, some passing stuff, which, which might not be as clean, but I like that first idea.
1:43
It might be, it might be quicker, but there fu- there's a couple fun ones on there I wanna discuss. There's definitely one I like. Yeah. Yeah, okay. We, we might be thinking about the same exact one. [laughs] Maybe.
1:51
Uh, we'll get into that. Uh, first though, as we do now that the tennis tour is stateside, we give tennis picks. Uh, yesterday, two and one on the tennis plays. Um, ho-hum day, two and one, picked up a unit.
2:02
The day before that it was three and two, where we hit a couple big dogs, so that was a, uh, much bigger day. Today I have four plays. This is in Cincinnati.
2:10
Uh, someone was pointing out on Twitter, which I, which Felika just sent me, where they were going through the, uh, the b- the, the wonderf- the wonders of the tennis tours, and talking about, you know, all the beautiful locations that all the 1,000 tournaments of the Grand Slams were in.
2:24
Uh, Paris, London, New York, Rome, Palm Springs, Shanghai, Monaco- Monaco... suburban Cincinnati. Yeah. I was like- [laughs]... "Oh no, here we go. We're gonna dunk on Ohio here." No, we're not.
2:35
We're just saying it's, one of these things is not like the other. And I love the Chris Collinsworth commercials, I just wanna say. Corny as ever. [laughs] Uh, but I have, I have four plays today.
2:42
Two are on the men's side, two are on the women's side. Uh, two of these are w- kinda way better than I got 'em at last night.
2:49
All of our picks at vsin.com/picks, uh, every host, every guest, every sport, every play that we have is for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. I put in my tennis the night before.
3:01
Usually, and by the way, this hasn't resulted necessarily in wins, but usually we get the best of it, uh, CLV, closing line value. Um, in one case we did here.
3:10
So on the men's side, Pablo Carreño Busta was my play last night against Max Purcell. I got him at even money. He's, like, minus 130-ish right now. Well, minus 125 is the lowest I see.
3:21
I, i- if it's any higher than minus 120, I, that's not, I wouldn't bet it. You can go ahead and do it, but it's not a sanctioned parameter bet, if you know what I mean, 'cause I got it even money last night.
3:31
So even money was the play on Carreño Busta. Subscribers got that last night over Purcell. Gets better for th- though, on the other side, 'cause I, I'm on the wrong side CLV of a couple of these.
3:40
Casper Ruud being the other. I got him at plus 109 over Felix Auger-Aliassime. You can get him at a better price this morning, and kind of significantly better. Um, the market really likes Auger-Aliassime. I do not.
3:54
I like Ruud at the price. Ruud is about plus 130 now, so you could absolutely go to town on that. Um, on the ladies' side, I have Anna Kalinskaya going a, uh, going up against Paula Badosa.
4:05
Paula Badosa, if you know what I mean? Yeah, Badosa. You know what I mean there, Kelly?
4:09
By the way, this is one of these tennis matches, Kalinskaya versus Badosa, where you should really watch it, if you know what I mean. [laughs] Uh, I got Kalinskaya at plus 125.
4:17
You can get a few pennies better on, uh, Kalinskaya than I did as well. Let me just make sure how many pennies. Yeah, she's, like, plus 139 I'm seeing. So you can do significantly better on that one.
4:27
So those two, Ruud and Kalinskaya, I got a much worse price last night. That usually does not happen. And then on the, uh, ladies' side, the big dog I'm taking is Yulia Putintseva. I got her at plus 275 over Coco Gauff.
4:39
She's about plus 250-something right now. You could absolutely play that still at that price. Yeah. So Carreño Busta and Ruud, although Carreño Busta's out of whack in terms of price.
4:48
Kalinskaya and Putintseva on the ladies' side. One, I can't see, I can't see that name without thinking about, like, Bruce Buffer, like, announcing, like, "Pablo Carreño Busta."
4:59
[laughs] Uh, and then, uh, wait, man, you, I, I can't wait to talk to Zach. Are, are, are, all, everybody in the tennis betting world, uh, fading Coco right now?
5:08
Well- It's what it sounded like between you and Drew yesterday. Well, here's the thing. She was b- she won the US Open last year famously.
5:15
Before that, on the hard court season, so after clay, after grass, the, the second hard court season, if you will, of the year, she was spectacular, and that led, was the portent of things to come with the US Open.
5:26
She's just not there. Yeah. And she has this, oh, she has this extra sort of thing where she, she gets in these fights, if you watch these matches, she gets in these little, uh, little fits with her coaches- Yes...
5:38
first of all- Yeah, yeah... when she's looking for help. That became a b- I mean, that became a thing, what, each of the last two Grand Slams, right?
5:44
Yeah, and Brad Gilbert's not one to, like, m- be demonstrative about it during the match.
5:47
The other thing is people are, y- in, in France she's gotten the worst of it in terms of calls, and so people are kinda killing her for that, which is kind of unfair, 'cause she's- It, it w- yeah...
5:55
she's justified in that. Yeah. That was- I think... go back and rewatch those. Yeah. Yeah, it's hard not to feel bad for her, actually- It is... on those.
6:02
She, she's not in top form, and Putintseva's one of these players on hard courts where if you're giving me plus 270, I mean, Coco should be favored, don't get me wrong.
6:09
But Putintseva at plus 275 is ridiculous, so you gotta play that Uh, so those are the tennis plays. Uh, Aaron Judge hit his 300th home run last night.
6:17
Uh, just because I'm a baseball nerd, I like to, I like these kinds of things, has nothing to do with betting. Or it does have something to do with betting, 'cause Kelly has under 43 and a half home runs, and he's on 43.
6:26
You're still alive, baby. Still alive, baby. Still alive. [laughs] Pretty sure he'll go homerless, [laughs] uh, for the rest of the year. He got a shot.
6:34
We actually shouldn't say that out loud 'cause then you, you, poor thing, if he gets- Yeah, all right, yeah... poor th- poor guy, if he gets hurt, right? We're like, "Oh, no, we shouldn't have said that out loud." Yeah.
6:41
Um, but Judge, 300th home run in ni- in his 955th game. By far the fastest of any player. Ralph Kiner previously, uh, the record, 300 home runs in his t- in his 1,087th game. So what's that? That's, um,
6:58
f- 132 fewer, fewer games.
7:01
The problem is, is that there, is that when we throw out that stat with games, what it doesn't s- what it doesn't say is that Aaron Judge missed basically the better, uh, most of two seasons- Yeah...
7:12
of injuries, and he's 32 years old getting to his 300. Hmm. So if your brain goes to, which mine did, can he ever, could he ever break Barry Lamar Bond's 762 home runs? I mean, he's still not even halfway there- Right...
7:24
and he's 32 years old. Is it impossible? No. Is it improbable? Highly.
7:29
Uh, Barry Bonds got to 300 when he was 31 years old at a time when he wasn't even considered a home run hitter, and only at age 31 moving forward in the next nine years, he hit over 400 home runs.
7:42
Of course, there are those out there listening to that are like, "Well, yeah, how did he hit those home runs?" Well. The, the, the, I, I'm with you though. Not impossible. But it- Very improbable, but not impossible...
7:52
not impossible.
7:52
Because especially anything in today's day, I mean, say whatever you want about Barry Bonds, but like, I mean, today's day and age of the athletes with, with some of these guys that we've seen in e- uh, every sport across the board, who knows how long Aaron Judge could be hitting home runs, Kelly?
8:05
I mean, the first thing, he's just gotta stay healthy. Yeah. He, and he's 32, so you, you can't lose many more seasons, you know?
8:11
By, and when I say lose seasons, like he was playing, you know, very few games in a couple seasons. Um, but tremendous 300 in 955 games. Well- Had he not had those injuries, my goodness, where could he be right now?
8:22
A- and if anybody at home, and I'm sure there's a lot of people, uh, are wondering why the hell would Kelly ever make that bet? Yeah.
8:28
It's 'cause rem- rem- I don't re- I don't regret it at all, Gil, 'cause remember we sat here during spring training and Aaron Judge kept telling reporters about how he had these nagging injuries- That's right...
8:36
that were gonna bother him all season long. Remember the toe injury? Yes. We were like, "Are they, are we not making enough of this?" We kept saying that, and it was like, "All right, I'm gonna bet this finally."
8:44
Like, if th- this guy who gets injured often is telling, telling the media that he's gonna be dealing with injuries throughout the year- Yeah... yeah, I, I, uh, I liked that bet. It, it blew up in my face.
8:54
That's what happens sometimes. Big trade yesterday in the NFL. Matthew Judon goes from the Patriots to the Falcons for a 2025 third round pick. Uh, Judon and the Patriots were at a stalemate over a contract.
9:07
Um, seventh most, seventh highest pressure rate over the last three seasons in the National Football League. The Falcons as a team are the worst team in terms of pressure rate.
9:15
If you remember when Aaron Schatz, uh, the creator of, uh, Football Outsiders, DVOA, now works at FTM, when he was on, he talked about both of these teams, and he had controversial opinions on both the Falcons and the Patriots.
9:26
The Patriots, he said, he's got them winning seven, [clears throat] pardon me, seven games, when their season win total was four and a half 'cause he said the defense is so good that they're going to stay in enough games to actually bleed to seven.
9:37
Now, I was skeptical of that then. Now, you know, now even more reason to be skeptical of that because now you're taking a key cog of what was their defense.
9:44
And yes, he, he did miss, uh, he did, he was out for the season last year with a bicep injury, with a torn biceps injury. So, um, you know, obviously he didn't complete last season. This is the final year of his deal.
9:56
The Falcons are gonna try to sign him beyond this year. But you remove that from a Patriots defense, that was the strength of that team. Hmm. Strength in quotes, right?
10:03
'Cause the, everybody, you know, the market suggests they're gonna be the worst team in the league. We were talking about them being the last winless also. So you remove him from the Patriots, makes a bad team worse.
10:13
Aaron Schatz probably gonna have to change his assessment there also. And then Judon to the Falcons, remember Aaron Schatz's comment about the Falcons.
10:20
He's, his controversial take on them was, yeah, everybody loves them and yeah, their schedule is what it is because they're in the NFC South, but their defense, he had ranked dead last in DVOA. But they got Judon now.
10:33
I loved the trade. So this is just perfect in terms of a trade for the Falcons, on paper anyway, right? Um, the q- So one thing I did wanna check on, Christian Barmore back at practice, so that is big for the Patriots.
10:46
'Cause, you know, if you were talking about, talking about the possibility of missing him and then Judon leaving too, like that, uh, that's a major... I mean, I, in my opinion, they lost their best defensive player.
10:56
I mean, that is w- Yes... that's how good Matthew Judon is, and that's, yes, you're right, he missed time, and this defense was still good last year. So if you are a Patriots backer- Yeah...
11:04
you do have that you can put, you can hope for. And Christian Gonzalez back, obviously- Yep, huge... he missed a lot of time last year as well.
11:11
Um, it's kind of funny just seeing this from Atlanta though, 'cause you're like, what was the plan? Before the draft- Well, so I g-... what was the actual plan? So I got that question on Twitter this morning.
11:20
I didn't have a chance to respond, which is, was this always their plan, go panics, and then make a trade for a defensive player?
11:25
They lost Braelon Trice, uh, the rookie third round pick, uh, Friday night with a knee injury against the Dolphins. It doesn't sound that significant, but do they absolutely make this trade unless that happens?
11:36
I don't know. I think that's a bigger point, yes. Yeah. I mean, maybe not, right? But that happened, and so it's like, okay, let's jump in on it. Um, big trade for betting implications for sure.
11:47
We'll come back, Zach Cohen and some football props next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live at Bar Canada, here at the D, downtown Las Vegas.
12:05
Gil Alexander and Kelly Bentley. We got tweets at Betting The Book. Always appreciate the f- Three Jack H3131. Oh, he was the guy who asked. He goes, uh, "So do we still roast the Falcons for the Penix pick?
12:16
Was this their intent all along?" Talking about the Judon trade. Uh, we still roast them for the Penix pick, yes, and this was not their intent at all. That's what I'm going with. Yeah.
12:24
Because again, if they don't have the, uh, the injury to Braelon Trice, I'm not sure they make the move. By the way, the Falcons, the last, the last player they had with a double-digit sacks...
12:36
Have not had a double-digit sack leader since Vic Beasley in 2016. [laughs] That was the year they went to the Super Bowl. Okay. And Judon, what was it last year? He had 15 and a half sacks.
12:47
No, it wasn't last year because he had his injury. Two years ago. Two years ago, 15 and a half. 2021, he had 12 and a half. Yeah, I'm with you. I, I think that, the, I think the injury is a bigger reason than the...
12:58
I, I feel like the masses are coming to this whole this was the plan all along thing. It's like, it's August 17th. Like, this was not the plan all along. Like they- Yeah.
13:06
It is, it is the way- Clearly it was bu- clearly for whatever reason, defensive end pass rusher was- Yeah...
13:11
below, uh, a backup quarterback or their quarterback of the future e- on their priority list heading into the draft. It is a gentle reminder though for all of us. It's like, you know, what is it? Uh, it's August 15th.
13:22
The Ides of August today, right? August 15th. Hm. And it's like, think about, you know, you go through a summer just breaking down team after team after team. We did every division. Right. We did every team.
13:33
And it's like, n- stuff can still happen. Like, like that's a fairly major piece to move, yes. Fairly major piece, yeah. And even if you were high on the Falcons, this should just bump it even...
13:40
You know, you should just corroborate. Oh, I'm very happy with this trade, Gil, 'cause I do have the Falcons division bet. Yeah. And then I've got Patriots under on everything. Uh, Jason D., "Not going to overreact."
13:49
He sounds like a Falcons fan. He goes, "Not going to overreact just yet. 32 years old, coming off a season-ending injury," again, it was a bicep injury, "and has no contract extension in place.
13:57
Not going to overreact yet," he says in, uh, capital letters. I, I mean, I think if you're a Falcons fan or backer out there, that's the way you should react. But you know what?
14:05
You know the way I read into it a little bit, Gil? Is keep all of that in mind, and a third rounder, rounder was still traded for him.
14:13
Like, these days, like that's, that, that's a fair amount of draft equity that you're, uh- Yeah... that you're giving up for a guy who's coming off of an injury at 32 years old. I j- I just, I think he is that good.
14:23
Prime Time, "I'm sorry. When you referenced the big NFL trade yesterday, everyone was obviously expecting two segments dissecting the Cowboys heist of the Giants' Jordan Phillips."
14:33
Uh, J- [laughs] Jared going, going, uh, going off this season. Uh, the Cowboys are gonna be fascinating.
14:39
See that, Jerry now trying to, like, do the, uh, the backtracking on the whole, uh, CeeDee Lamb thing, when he's like, "We're not"... What was his, his thing on Twitter?
14:46
He's like, "We're not, we're not really, that's not really a priority right now. But we're C- CeeDee Lamb-" Yeah. "... was LOLing it. And he was like, "Oh." Now he's like, "Of course we want...
14:53
He wants to be a Dallas Cowboy and, and, uh, and we want him to be a Dallas Cowboy."
14:58
So some of these guys that are very used to being, uh, being in front of a microphone for so many years, th- they need to figure out when it's time to, to not get in front of the mic as often and- Oh, he will, he will never figure that out.
15:08
Yeah, yeah. [laughs] Jerry's at that point, unfortunately.
15:10
And Charles in Connecticut, yeah, "Is there a line set on the bump your ratings are going to get tomorrow 'cause you're announcing your sushi restaurant if now there should be?" It is not tomorrow. It's next week.
15:20
It's next week. It's the end of next week. Why is it the end of next week? I have no idea. Just 'cause I wanted to promote it like a boxing match. Right, yeah, exactly. That's all. Exactly. That's all.
15:28
A- and, and remember again, we're, uh, we're, we're, we're, uh, suckering people into listening on a Friday, so [laughs] you gotta watch. You gotta watch, listen on a Friday. Sushi, baby.
15:38
I'll give my top three, by the way. All right. I'll give a third, I'll give a two, and I'll g- and that'll be the one. What was the other move the Cowboys made? Carl Lawson, right, uh, signed today?
15:45
Yeah, so ex-New York Jet. Let's do these. This is a great prop. Uh, this is not a great prop. This is a great Kelly question, which is, all right, of the teams, talking about make, miss playoffs now in the NFL.
15:56
Of the teams that are minus 150 or longer, who's gonna miss? And of the teams that are plus 150 or longer, on the opposite side, who's gonna make? Um, which side would you like to start with, sir?
16:10
Let's go with the big favorites to make it, and who do we think is actually gonna miss? Wait, big favorites to make it, you mean? Mm-hmm. Yeah, to make the playoffs. So who's gonna miss from this group? Yes, yeah.
16:18
Ah, that's very... The word, the word salad here is very difficult to navigate. [laughs] All right, I actually, I actually feel strongly about this one.
16:26
I mean, I could have used the odds to, to miss the playoffs, but this felt more let's just look at all the odds to make the playoffs.
16:31
These are f- these, these are favorites of minus 150 or longer to make the playoffs, and we're going to pick a team of this group to miss. I select the Buffalo Bills to miss the playoffs.
16:47
Oh, it's funny, we are both going AFC East. Uh, Miami- I-... Dolphins for me. Oh, okay. Interesting. My explanation on the Buffalo Bills is, is... Well, we talked about the AFC East, I talked about this.
16:57
One of the big things with the Bills is they lose Stefon Diggs. And if you're like, "Well, they can sort of replace that."
17:02
Well, Stefon Diggs did one thing very well, which was spread the field for the Bills on, on offense. And as great as Josh Allen is, they're going to need to do that.
17:12
And w- we went through the, the other receivers on the team. Um, Khalil Shakir, when it come...
17:18
Yeah, great speed, 4.4 speed, but his average, average depth of target has been under 10 yards in each of the last two years. It was lower in an expanded role last year than it was even the previous year.
17:29
Keon Coleman, when he was at FSU, when they were playing exhibition football there for the Seminoles last year, his 2023, uh, average depth of target, 201st among qualifying receivers in college football.
17:42
Curtis Samuel, anybody who's rooted for a team that had Curtis Samuel, he's not a threat to, uh, to spread the field. And so their answer to this was getting Marquez Valdes-Scantling in mid-May. He's not scaring anybody.
17:53
So that's... I, I don't know how they really overcome that. That's a, that's a deficit on offense. On defense- I think they'll try to utilize Keon Coleman in that role, though.
18:03
'Cause that w- that's where he had a lot of success at Florida State, were those d- were those kinda deep jump balls, throw it up to him situation. Oh, no one's saying, no one's saying he can't win the jump balls. Yeah.
18:12
The problem is can he spread the field- Mm... and make it, you know, and, and then allow Allen to go to his tight ends, which he's so great at, uh, over the years with, uh, Knox and Kincaid.
18:22
So I don't l- I just think that's a problem on, on, um, on offense. On defense, they lose Jordan Poyer to the Dolphins, who you're about to talk about. Um, and the w- you know, they also had...
18:33
The, the one thing that Bills fans can hang their hat on is that they had a lot of injuries last year and they still performed okay. But I don't know if you can continue to expect that.
18:43
The strength of schedule, like everybody in that division, is, is difficult. The Bills happen to have the single most difficult.
18:48
I think this is the team that gets lost in the shuffle in a crowded AFC East, where I believe, Kelly, only one team, this is somewhat controversial, only one team is getting to the playoffs.
18:59
And it's not because I don't like the division, it's because I just think it's so crowded, they're gonna beat up on each other, and only one team is gonna get there as the division winner.
19:08
And I think the division winner ultimately will be the Jets or the Dolphins. So I'm gonna say Bills, miss.
19:13
Well, I think that we have similar thoughts on the AFC East, it's just different teams for the answer of this question. And it's really why, why I can't even consider the Bills when, when, when some of this.
19:24
It's just one, it's just one name, [laughs] Josh Allen. Like, I think he's... I still think he's that good that I can't ever count that guy out.
19:31
I also think it's a reason, unless I'm betting on the Bills, I don't even...
19:35
Like, I- as long as Josh Allen's in the league, it feels like at this point, I don't know that I'll be making a bet inside of this division other than the Bills. And not that...
19:43
Like, that is to say I haven't bet the Bills. Hmm. I think there's enough talent in these, on these teams, I'm just staying away from that market completely.
19:49
Um- The reason I didn't go Dolphins, 'cause I think that offense is still gonna be so ridiculously good that they will continue to be a bully- Hmm... and beat so many teams.
19:59
By the way, they might not make the playoffs either, but I'd rather pick the Bills than the Dolphins in this. Are you, are... Now, in, in big things, so we're talking these divisions, right?
20:07
Like, you and I both th- like, how, how many teams are coming out of the AFC North? Oh, more than one, I believe. I think it's three. Like, I, I think there's three teams. It's at, I think it's at least two. Yeah.
20:16
[laughs] I think there's three. Baltimore and Cincinnati. So like, that's really- I don't know about three, but we'll see... like, like, I think Gil and I are both gonna gravitate towards a division like this.
20:23
And because of the odds that we've, we've, you know, made for this kind of exercise, like, these teams fall, there's three teams that fall into this category, minus 150, uh, or, or higher than that.
20:35
Um, so I think it's, like, I think you're, I think you have a stacked AFC North that's probably gonna get two or three teams out of it into the playoffs. I'm, so when it comes to the AFC East,
20:45
I think you're looking at, like you said, probably one team, maybe two. I think that the Jets are the most balanced team. I do, too. I think the Jets are the best team, most balanced. Yeah, it- Yes...
20:56
like, that's the, you know, like, I, I, I said everything I just said about Josh Allen. I'm not gonna make a bet. Do I think the Jets are probably the best team in this division though? Yes, I do. I, I think that.
21:04
I do, too. Um- Hassan Redick or not. Yeah, Hassan Redick or not, I still th- I think they probably are. My question's like you, like you kinda alluded to with the Miami Dolphins.
21:13
Um, it, it's, it's look, you're already in a, in, in a tough division. We saw what they did the whole, the whole bully ball last year, right?
21:19
We always talked about them just beating up, uh, on the, on the worse opponents. They played one and six against playoff teams. And then I just have so many questions about this defense. Like, I just think they...
21:30
I understand what you're saying on the offense, and I don't really, even though I think it's gonna be tough for them to replicate that l- high level, high level of success, there's...
21:39
I, I can't really give you a solid reason why they can't. You can't. You know what I mean? 'Cause it's still Tyreek. Right. It's still Waddle. It's still A-Chan, and it's still Mostert. Mm-hmm.
21:46
And those four guys are insane. So I can't really argue that. But, like, this, this defense, it already wasn't amazing a year ago. You're talking about losing Xavien Howard, Christian Wilkins, Van Ginkel.
21:57
I thought tho- those three guys were massively important, uh, to that defense. And yes, they bring some guys in, but I don't think they're, I don't think they're replacing what they had a year ago.
22:05
I think this could be one of the worst defenses, uh, uh, one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
22:09
And I think when we're talking about, you know, juxtaposing them against the, against the Patriots or, or the Bills and the Jets in this division at least, I think that's where they fall short.
22:18
Here's the other reason I picked the Bills in this question. And again, forced because we asked the question. Hmm. To which, which team of the, of the favorites might get there, Bob?
22:25
I might actually end up betting Miami. I don't know about you, but- I might actually end up betting the Bills. Here's how the Bills start.
22:30
After they play Arizona, at Miami, home Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Houston, at the Jets, home Tennessee, at Seattle, Miami, Indianapolis, at Kansas City. Oh, boy. I don't think Buffalo's making it. I really don't.
22:44
We'll come back, we'll do the opposite of that, and we'll talk about some passing props in the NFL. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:04
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23:37
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23:46
I don't, I don't wanna go through tweets, but I just wanna read this one, Kelly, from, uh, Barcomb Bets, who says, "I was at a wedding over the weekend and so I missed out on the three-year promo, um,
23:57
for all VSiN complete access, VSiN All Access.
24:00
Will definitely be getting the yearly subscription before college football and NFL start, but wanted to check in if there was an A&G promo that I could help the boys out by using when I do. Let me know. Thank you."
24:10
We have promo requests now. I'm not sure w- uh, how it works when you sign up these days, but yeah, hey, if they ask for a promo code, just pump, uh, punch in A&G and see what happens.
24:19
Um- The worst thing that happens is, uh, you don't get any break on the price. The best thing, the best thing that could happen- That's right... is someone forgot about it, and you'd g- you'd get a break on the price.
24:27
[laughs] Just write A&G somewhere on there. Um, okay, so Kelly, you had a great idea.
24:32
Again, uh, teams in the NFL, make, miss playoff market, that are minus 150 or longer, which is the team we think will miss the playoffs of that group.
24:41
And then on the flip side, which of the teams that are plus 150 or a longer shot than that That will make the playoffs. Now, Cleve TA, our buddy. Remember Cleve, we did this with Cleve last year. Uh, he chimes in.
24:54
He goes, "I heard the intro today.
24:56
If you wanna dig even deeper," and this is the re- And by the way, Kelly might not even know how smart he was to do this, but, uh, Cleve says, "Every year since 2008, at least one team at plus 240 or higher to make the playoffs has made it.
25:10
Eight teams in the last three years," by the way, last year, Tampa four to one, uh, they were plus 400. The Rams were plus 310. Houston was plus 475. All of them made it. So those are three teams.
25:22
Uh, one north of, uh, three, uh, $3, two north of $4, or one was $4, one was plus 475. "And then every year since 2007, at least one team with minus 190 or higher to make the playoffs has missed it.
25:36
Last year, Jacksonville minus 190, Cincinnati minus 285 missed it." I, I will- Those are, uh, DraftKings', uh, closing numbers. Thank you to Cleve TA for that, friend.
25:44
Yeah, I will also use his exact wording [laughs] from his guide on the w- if you wanna use it with, uh, when it comes to win totals.
25:50
"Every year since 2000, at least one team with a win total of eight or less has made the playoffs. In 20 of the last 24 seasons, at least two teams have made it.
25:59
And then a team with, with a win total of 10 or more has missed the playoffs every season since 2000." Yeah, so anybody who, who listens, they're like, "Oh, there's no chance either of those teams miss the playoffs."
26:09
Uh, Kelly and I had a duel off, uh, offset during the break, because I said the Bills would miss, you said the Dolphins, and we, we battled it out, and we're not sure what the- I would pay so...
26:18
And I, I can't hear the word duel now without thinking about, like, the fencing in whatever castle in France, like, that went on during the Olympics. Oh, right. I would love to fence with you.
26:27
I still f- I still think of, like, Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr doing an actual duel. [laughs] But, uh- They used to solve problems that way back in the day. I know, man. Wow.
26:37
Um, so these things happen, and it's, and it's also the way that our brains are wired. We, when we hear these kinds of things, let's take Carolina winless last year, or last winless team. I bet it was 15 to one.
26:49
Carolina was like, they were, like, plus 400 to win the division, plus 475 or something to win the division. But now that everybody sees how bad Bryce Young actually was, it sort of gets lost in the shuffle.
27:00
People are like, "Oh, of course, uh, Carolina was the last winless," right? Like, that's how we, that's our brains are wired about all this stuff. Yep.
27:06
So if the Bills, with that schedule I just talked about, Ari- I'm, I'm saying, that schedule is so difficult. We're focused on the Steelers having this horrible gauntlet at the end, and kind of really full season.
27:18
But Buffalo, this is, this is, up until their week 12 buy and beyond, dude. Arizona at home. Okay, let's give them that one. Here we go. At Miami, home Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Houston, at the Jets, home Tennessee.
27:31
Let's give them that one. At Seattle, home Miami, at Indy, at K- uh, excuse me, home Kansas City, bye. Home San Francisco, at Rams, at Detroit. It never ends. They're getting to the playoffs?
27:43
I don't think they're getting to the playoffs. Josh Allen, Superman. Write about that. It's kind of fu- what's kind of funny is- You're right about that. I can't argue with that...
27:48
you can even mention the Cardinals game. Like, Cardinals are one of the sides I have circled, like, week one. That, like, I'm like, [laughs] this, this is hovering around seven.
27:55
Like, I, I probably betting the Cardinals week one. All right, I don't feel as strongly about this, but when we do the flip side, you're asking me a team that's plus 150 or longer to make. I went with the Seahawks.
28:07
Oh, so did I, and I have bet this one, my friend. Plus 180. I went with the Seahawks, not because I think they're spectacular, but I think their coach is awesome. I think he's going to be great as a head coach.
28:19
Although you never know, right? The transition from coordinator- Mm-hmm... uh, where he has, uh, been just tremendous, um, to head coach. Doesn't always work out, but we'll see.
28:27
Um, you got, like, five teams in the NFL using his defensive, uh, scheme now, including these Seahawks, which will take a bit of a transition period.
28:36
When we talked about the Seahawks, it's like, you just hope Geno Smith can sort of be credible, and then you try to improve everything around him, um, both offensively and defensively, 'cause you have so many holes everywhere.
28:48
But, um, this team does have the ability, once the season progresses, you figure he will implement this, they have, they, and he will be able to implement this system to the point where they'll be able to get a lot of wins, at least on the second half of the schedule.
29:05
And so I think if I'm, if I'm forced to choose one here, I did not bet this, you did, I'm going Seahawks, because I'll tell you what, I don't love any of the other candidates.
29:14
So I kind of landed on the Seahawks by default. Yeah. This one I bet, so I bet this one, I got two to one, but this was, I've only bet it a few weeks ago, two or three weeks ago.
29:21
This one, it's one of those I, I stared at like almost all summer long as we were going through different NFL prep work, you know, as we, as, as we're preparing for the season.
29:29
Um, s- And part of this is just the NFC's weaker, right? Yeah, right. Yeah, part, definitely that's a big part of it. Um, but this is the one I just kept coming back to.
29:36
A- and yes, I am very concerned about their offensive line. I think that is a major issue for the Seahawks.
29:42
I'll, I'll say though, Gil, I think if they, if they have a middle-of-the-road average or even somehow above average offensive line, if that's how it ends up playing out, I think this is gonna be one of the more challenging offenses in the NFC.
29:54
I do think they have the pieces there. Um, uh, a- and they're getting the offensive coordinator over from the University of Washington. We saw what he did with Michael Penix and that offense last year.
30:03
I think that could be exciting. I think McDonald's gonna be awesome and v- and revitalize this defense. I, I do think they are a team.
30:10
A- a- and a little bit for me, it is the, I feel like there's b- there's a lot of people that are really high on the Rams this year. I'm not quite as high on the Rams.
30:18
I actually think it's Seattle that g- might maybe give San Francisco a run for their money in the NFC West. I don't expect them to win it.
30:24
But I think at a near two-to-one price shop around, you can find that Seattle will make the playoffs. I, I like that bet. I ended up making it a few weeks ago. I keep getting back to Mike McDonald.
30:33
Part of it, again, is not just Mike McDonald. I'm so terrified of screwing up his name every time we bring it up. That's right. Not Mike McDaniel, not Michael McDonald. Not Michael McDonald.
30:42
Solo career or Doobie Brothers Michael McDonald, either one. Mike McDonald. It's not just him, it's what our eyes and our football brains Don't process by watching the Seahawks on a weekly basis.
30:56
It's only the sort of the analytics that can tell you. Pete Carroll, and we talked about this when we went through the, uh, the division, but FTN did a great job about this too.
31:04
Pete Carroll was not one to take unnecessary risks on offense, which gradually transitioned into someone not willing to take necessary risks- Yeah. Yeah... on offense.
31:15
Pete Carroll finished 25th out of 35 in last year's aggressiveness index, and only four teams, this is the key point of all this, only four teams lost more win probability by kicking when they should have gone for it than these Seahawks.
31:34
So think about that. Y- you watch the Seahawks on a daily basis. Yes, you probably have this thing about, oh, Pete Carroll, he wasn't the best.
31:42
But think about how much th- how, how their results could have been so much, um, so much better, dramatically so, had he been a different kind of coach.
31:53
And so now just by removal, just forget Mike McDonald for a second, just by removal, that ought to be an improvement. Mm-hmm. And McDonald, um, obviously shoring up that defense, that's gonna be the...
32:05
So I, it's the NFC, so I immediately went to NFC teams, right? Um, 'cause it's a weaker conference. And then the other choices, like if Aaron Schatz was here, he would've picked the Saints. Right. Yes.
32:16
He would've picked the Saints. But I'm not as high on, on him as, as h- his point about the Saints was the problem, the, the reason that people don't think the Saints are any good is 'cause they're boring.
32:24
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so people don't process them as good. They're- I was w- guessing you were gonna go there, actually. No, Seahawks for me. I like it. But- I like that we're on the same wavelength.
32:30
I like it But the other, the other ones, like everything beyond that, Steelers, schedule too hard. Commanders- Command- Man, would I love it, but I don't know. Obviously the Steelers are gonna make it.
32:38
Like, come on, let's just be real. Cardinals- Th- that's the correct answer... Cardinals I don't trust. Vikings now, by the way, thank goodness Jordan Addison appears to be okay- Yeah...
32:46
after he was carted off the field yesterday. But J.J. McCarthy out for the season, we find out, which wouldn't have been a thing week one, but might've been a thing later.
32:54
And then, like, r- look at that whole second column. It, it- Raiders, Giants, Titans, Panthers, Broncos, Patriots. No thank you to any of them. Yeah. Yeah. I'll make the idiot statement right now.
33:04
In that second column, no, but none of those teams from that second column's making the playoffs. I don't think that's idiotic at all. Eh, I usually- At all...
33:12
I usually make one every summer that, uh, looks idiotic, and that's the Steelers. So the Seahawks more by default on this side of it. The Bills I really feel, you know. See, I'm the opposite. I like this one better.
33:23
I'm more- Oh, okay... Dolphins, uh, by default. All right. Good job, Kelly. That was a good, that was a good exercise. Bill Krackomberger on the other side.
33:29
Unscripted next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Thank you, Cleave. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:44
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33:49
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34:21
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34:30
Skill Alexander, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook, always appreciate the feedback. Uh, Norman Vegas, uh, "When El Cortez had their beautiful gourmet room, The Flame, we'd go for stone crab claws.
34:42
After dinner, they still had a poker room, and I'd play, and Jackie Gaughan would be at the same table. But they got rid of The Flame for seagulls. Now we eat stone crab at Joe's." Oh, wow.
34:50
Jackie, the great Jackie Gaughan. That's awesome. Michael's father. Wow, yeah, Michael's dad. Yeah. Yeah, no, and, uh, I, I actually, uh, heard of The Flame, never been there.
34:58
I see their, they had their, they've saved their neon sign. They put it in the, in the boneyard here, so. Yeah. Yeah, The Flame.
35:05
Um- Well, this also gives me an opportunity to bring up the fun fact with shrimp, that there are more shrimp consumed in this city than the rest- That's-... of the United States combined on a yearly basis.
35:13
Sounds about right. Yeah, they're all out the buffet all day long. It's a lot. So I guess we're, yeah. By the way, we're- Yeah, but like, you keep saying that. There's not as many buffets. Not anymore. There isn't. Yeah.
35:22
Not anymore. But that was, uh, that was- But the Wynn has a buffet with giant shrimps, uh- Yeah... galore, and I, I think Caesars, so. So maybe this is an outdated fact.
35:29
That is one of the most clea- I mean, most obvious, uh, developments from the pandemic- Yeah... is that Las Vegas buffets largely went by the wayside.
35:40
Um, and they were replaced by, I don't know what the technical term is for, like, what you have at the Aria, the food court at the Aria where you- Oh, yeah... and, like, at, at Resorts World, where it's kiosk-based.
35:51
Oh, I do like those, though. You order on the kiosk, and then you go pick up your food in what looks to be an old-school food court. Ah. Right, right. Ah. It's like a mall food court almost. Right.
35:59
Not as much human contact. When you guys do go on a buffet, though, do you look at it like, "I gotta get the best of this, and I gotta make them lose money"? Uh, not- Try to make things last...
36:08
not in so many words, but yeah, kind of. Yeah. It's a sickness. 'Cause it, 'cause it, 'cause if I don't go at least twice, if not three times, then I feel like, "Why did I come here in the first place?"
36:16
It also depends which buffet and how much you're paying, right? Like- Yeah... I, I think that, what's the one at Caesars? Yeah. Like, the last time I was- The Wynn and Caesars are, like, 80 bucks each...
36:23
I made them pay for that one at Caesars. Yeah, Baccara's is expensive. Baccara. It's been a couple years. Caesars. Yeah. But the, you're right, the Wynn is fantastic, too. Are you not like Cousin Eddie?
36:30
You don't pull the bag out of your pants- [laughs]... and start shoving things in, you see? That's what, that's what I would say. Um- Vegas vacation, huh?
36:37
Yeah, Randy McKay, it was, uh, Rusty's, uh, character was based off of Randy McKay. [laughs] Put a quarter in it, win a car. Put a quarter in it, win a car. Put a quarter in, win a car. Dad, we must have jumped 50 yards.
36:46
[laughs] It's nothing to be proud about, Rusty. Nothing to be proud about. [laughs] 50 yards.
36:51
Nash, last name Nash, "Love how Bill's giving incredible info on advantage plays and what to look for in slots, then quickly saying, 'Yeah, uh, that's fun and all, but let's talk pizza.'
37:00
It's why Thursdays are always a must listen." Spontaneous Joe Abraham, "Locals are always the best judges of pizza. Website or magazine critics always prefer the hipster pizza with exotic ingredients."
37:10
Las Vegas 514, "Yo, tell Crack not to sleep on Komodo at Fountain Blue, absolutely delicious." Ooh. "Smoke shows all over the place," he adds. Yeah, and, um- I've heard that is very good as well. Yeah.
37:20
I need to- apparently need to do a Fountain Blue, uh, trip again. Yeah. Fountain Blue, where the casino, uh, has the ambiance and the- Fountain Blue-... ambiance and charm of Miami International Airport circa 1973...
37:31
Fountain Blue where Randy McKay sent me in and said, "Listen, Bill, you gotta give them a big play and they'll give you some great bounce-back."
37:37
I was there for hours, lost four grand playing video poker, and they sent me $50 in free play and then $20. Look, we'll have $20 for food.
37:45
I don't know what you can get for $20 for food there, but I'll just tell you something. So to... He is a friend of mine. I really shouldn't blast him.
37:52
Um, Maurice Wooden, president of the Fountain Blue, who I've known for many years, used to be president of the Golden Nugget, president of the Wynn.
37:59
I met Maurice 25 years ago, uh, when he came into my room at the Golden Nugget up on the 18th floor with a cassette tape. I know- what did they used to call those things? A VCR tape.
38:09
But it w- a VCR tape that said the Kraken Burger footage on it, by the way. VHS, yeah. VHS tape. Yeah. Kraken Burger footage.
38:16
Um, that, that's a stor- well, well, we're, we're gonna tell it, but let me just say, Maurice, maybe this is the reason why you guys got no business over there. Oh. You can't, you can't let someone play for hours- Mm...
38:26
and give them 50 bucks. I'll go back to the story 'cause this is spontaneous.
38:30
I was staying up at the eight- lived up on the 18th floor at a unbelievable room, the Sinatra Suite, where s- it was actually called the Chairman's Chamber, where Steve Wynn and Frank Sinatra filmed the commercial.
38:41
Um, Steve Wynn says, "Hi, Mr. Sinatra, I run this place." By the piano there, was it? By the piano. Yeah. And Sinatra folds up a 20 and gives it to him, and says, "Ma- make sure I got enough towels."
38:50
[laughs] That's- the same room is exactly the same today. Same piano. Very good B- uh, Gil. Yes. The pi- piano's the same. Everything is the same.
38:58
The statues are the same that were in that room, but let me tell you how this story went down. A buddy- a, a bunch of buddies of mine were on a Hooters jet chartered from Myrtle Beach. Big players- Oh, geez...
39:08
six-figure credit lines. Man. Came into Las Vegas, came into the Golden Nugget, and yes, we all played craps together. We all got promo chips to play, and played craps together, and I was standing next to this stick man.
39:21
And yes, I was trying out a shot that I learned, which by the way, it's a waste. But I, trying out a shot.
39:27
If you don't hit the back wall and you do a helicopter spin with the dice, I'm always trying to, you know, I'm always trying to win something. [laughs] I'm looking to steal.
39:34
So sure enough- You better practice your dice throw. It's always... [laughs] This particular, the particular guy that showed me it is thrown out of a lot of casinos for a lot of things. It's incredible. It's incredible.
39:42
So he has, he has, matter, matter of fact, he has a dice table on his front porch of his house. A dice table in the, in the front porch, and he, you know, he's practiced this skill shooting. Can only do it from the...
39:52
But, uh, listen, do I know it works? I know a guy, I watched a guy that you, he would tell you what he was doing, and you wouldn't know. He would take, pick up red dice and shoot green dice. He was telling you that.
40:05
Think about that. And you wouldn't even see the move. You wouldn't even see the, the, the- Yeah... the, the dice go in the pocket. You wouldn't even see it happen. Well- So-...
40:12
I don't doubt, I don't doubt that there's those guys out there, but oh my God, Bill. Very few and far in between.
40:16
But my God, when I'm at the craps table and you get the one guy that's- Setting, he has no idea what he's doing... oh my God, just throw the dice. Yeah. Throw the dice.
40:23
What was the Fezzik thing where they're like, "Sir, you have to throw it lower than eye level." He goes, "Mine or yours?" [laughs] They, they, they go, "Mine." He goes, "I need a taller stick man." This is great.
40:32
[laughs] That's great. But it just so happens I got on a little roll and I hit four hard 10s. I'll never forget, 'cause my friend on the end was double-dipping.
40:40
He had a come bet on the hard 10, he had maximum bet on the hard 10, a come bet on the, on the 10, I mean, and he had the place for 5,000 come bet. And there's something called a put bet, which people don't know.
40:50
You can walk up to any dice table and say, "I want a put bet." A put bet- I will that I know that one, yeah... a put bet is actually a bet where they put, uh... It's, it's a come bet that's already placed.
40:58
Say, "I wanna put bet on the eight," so you'll put $5 on the eight with five time odds, 25 bucks. Give the guy 30 bucks, it's a put bet. So that 30 bucks i-i- is, it's five with 25 odds, like a come bet works. Mm.
41:08
Yeah, you don't have to come out with it all. You don't have to come out. Yeah, yeah. Very good. That's the proper word. Yeah. So. Just so happens I hit four hard 10s. My friend was up, like, 100 grand.
41:15
Now this is a guy, this is a guy with a $100,000 credit line that's lost millions of dollars, millions there. And the whole table, by the way, the whole table was up 250, which was nothing compared to this junket group.
41:28
Do you know, the shift manager comes over and says, "You have to stop h- you have to hit, start hitting the back wall or you're not getting the dice no more." Oh, man. So now he points at me, and what do I do?
41:39
I don't hit the back wall, and I hit another 10. It was the fourth hard 10. Dispute. They took the dice away from me. "Pass the dice." Oh, man. Now think how stupid this is.
41:48
This, th- these customers have lost a combined millions of dollars at little dump Golden Nugget. Mm. That's right, I'm saying it. You know? And, but I, I shouldn't say dump, 'cause I actually like the Golden Nugget.
41:56
It's got great suites, great restaurants, good stuff, and, um, they made me stop shooting the dice.
42:02
And God is my witness, I, on my parents' grave, they made everyone get their money, I made everyone get their money back from Myrtle Beach, the whole table. I said, "Do not play. We're not playing."
42:12
The casino did not wanna give us the contract bets, which are the come bets. They'll give you the odds back, but they won't give you that contract bet, which is the pass line. You cannot take your pass line bet off.
42:21
You can take the odds off. God is my witness, I made, I personally went to the table, in back of the table where the dealer was, and handed the money off to them. I handed everyone's money off.
42:32
They, they, I mean, they, they could have arrested me. I literally was in the, where the dealer was. I handed everyone their money, uh, their, their come bets money.
42:38
And Maurice Wooden, president of the casino, came up, Kraken Burger footage, and he said, "Guys, I am so embarrassed. I am so embarrassed. We should have never done this to your group." No. "I am so sorry.
42:47
We, I don't care if you don't hit the back wall. I don't care." He goes, "You guys are worth so much to us. You're such good people. We love you," this and that. And I didn't mean for anyone to get fired.
42:56
They fired, like- Oh... the box person. They fired a floor per- they fired a shift manager. Oh. The shift manager guy. He's an antique, though. He doesn't deserve a job.
43:02
[laughs] No, seriously, he, he, he, he doesn't deserve a job. I, I got in an argument with- He pointed at me. He pointed like, "You're not gonna..."
43:08
And then of course I went right back at him, 'cause he's, he's just an old sweater. He's the kind of guy that would kick the dealer under the table and say, "Get the dice out. Get the dice out now. We need a seven.
43:16
We need a seven." You know, one of those guys that don't believe in the math of the game, just believes in something else. Just ridiculous.
43:21
I've only seen this happen once in my life where, where, where I've, I've seen people warned. Yeah.
43:26
I've only seen it once in my life where the dice were taken away, and it was the, it was from this girl who I was, it was a friend of a friend that was with me. I was, we were out playing craps. She had to be
43:36
5'5", like 80 pounds. She literally c- she could barely get over the table to throw them. Yeah. No. And they kept, "You gotta hit the back of the table." They don't even know why.
43:45
"You gotta hit the back of the ta-" I'm like, "Look at her." They're idiots. "Look, she's trying." They're idiots.
43:49
That's why I can't play di- I can't play casino games, 'cause they all sweat the money too bad, especially the dice dealers, dice pe- They're- But they're, you know, they're, it's, it's the management. It's management.
43:57
Yeah. They don't even know why they're telling you to hit the back wall. Of course it's- Right... the dice are tumbling. What does it matter?
44:01
There, there are so many fallacies in casino games that people, like, believe in, even, even l- on the player side- That's right... right? Like on blackjack when someone steps in in the middle.
44:10
I have a John, there's a John Stark story about this, right? We'll do it next week. Yeah, we'll do it next week. You guys got me swe- I'm sweating beads of sweat. I'm going out and pass posting or something.
44:18
[laughs] Crack Man's gonna take it out on everybody. Uh, we've done all we can do. Enjoy, from Visa, the Sports Betting Network
A Numbers Game
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
