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Aug 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 17, 2026
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45:31
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Good Monday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158.
0:26
It's Gil Alexander, and that right there is Matt Brown, in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin on this Monday morning. What's happening? I am probably not, uh, in the same state of being as Kelly Bidlin about right now.
0:38
I'm guessing after three days of hardcore partying, Kelly is c- Kelly's probably not even awake right now. Matt, he's on assignment. That's how we like to say here. Uh-huh. Not even, not even awake right now.
0:47
[laughs] Kelly's in Nashville, Tennessee, enjoying himself, at least that's the last we've heard from him. Uh, on the show today, and Matt, thank you for being here on the show, Greg Peterson.
0:57
Greg is, uh, MLB Fab Five, his five plays in Major League Baseball today. He's got more, but we'll just limit it to five on the show. You'll have to go to the website, VSiN.com/picks, for the rest of them.
1:08
Uh, Wes Reynolds talking Scottie Scheffler off the schneid. Been too long, seven months since Scheffler had himself a win, and boy, did he do it in grand fashion this past weekend.
1:17
We'll talk that with Wes and whatever else he's betting these days. Adam Burke, Major League Baseball, college football. And a little later on, Matt, uh, Drew Tabor will join us.
1:26
He is the founder of something called UNGAMBLED, uh, which is a, uh, I'll read it right here from the page.
1:32
It is a math-backed platform and educational service founded by him that teaches sports bettors how to systematically extract profit from sportsbook signup bonuses and promotions through hedging while avoiding account bans.
1:45
Sounds good. I can tell you that profit is good. What's that? Profit is good. So- Yeah... pro- profit's good. That's right. There we go. And we're looking forward to that.
1:51
And, uh, and then, oh, something a little later on also, I don't know when, but apparently I'll, I'll vomit it out at some point.
1:57
I have found out, uh, that for 44 years, I do n- I have been singing lyric-wise the wrong word in a very popular song, and I am flabbergasted by it. That's a little later on the show. Wow.
2:11
I follow, uh, I know you don't do, you don't do the Instagram, do you? I am, I am gobsmacked. You don't do the Instagram, do you? I, I, I am there. Dabble? You dabble. I never post. You dabble. I rarely post.
2:20
S- I follow at least three accounts that go, "You have been singing this or saying this wrong," or whatever. Really? At l- at least three different ones, and every single time I come out going, "Oh, wow.
2:32
Yeah, look at that." This came up because- Isn't that something? I was with my brother this weekend. The song came up. He sang it. I'm like, "What the hell did you just say?"
2:39
And it turns out he was right, so we'll get into that a little later on the show. Uh, we'll get, uh, Matt's thoughts on week one of the NFL preseason. We'll do it, uh, both betting and really sports talk radio fashion.
2:50
But real quick, the administrative work, not a good weekend for our Tigers to say the least. And I say our Tigers because we have the most wins in the month of August, but not a good weekend for the Tigers, period.
3:02
Uh, you wanted to at least win two out of three from the White Sox. At the very worst, you wanted to salvage one win yesterday after losing the first two. Guess what? Swept.
3:12
And the Tigers not only, uh, we take a hit with our August bet, but beyond that, the Tigers all of a sudden go from two and a half back in the AL Central to five and a half back.
3:21
They go from inside the playoff picture to outside the playoff picture in a never-ending American League wildcard race.
3:29
It's the Padres, by the way, if you're scoring at home, who have the lead now in August with an 11 and four record. They have a one-win lead over the Rays, Phillies, Cubs, and Blue Jays, as you see on the screen.
3:40
As far as the, uh, the divisions themselves now, Matt, we have six weeks, exactly six weeks left in the Major League Baseball season.
3:46
All of a sudden now with that sweep, the White Sox of the Tigers, every division except one, the wonderful world of the AL West, where the Astros are, I believe it's a two-game lead if I'm not mistaken in the AL West.
4:00
Um, everything else is five games or more. Might this be a season where we will be bereft of any pennant chase? I don't think so because- Not pennant chase, but division race. I'm sorry...
4:09
I don't think, I don't think a lot of these teams are any good. I think we are, I think we are always live for these five, you know, losing five out of six down the stretch here.
4:18
I mean, like 38, 39 games left for, for a lot of these teams out there, and it's, it seems like if you just look at the raw numbers, you're like, "Okay, well, this is probably done."
4:27
But man, how many times have we seen, even out of the, the almighty Dodgers had that giant skid, right? I mean, like- I'm not sure they're not, they haven't stopped skidding. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
4:35
I mean, the, they, they had a giant skid along the way. Like, I don't know if any of these teams are actually really all that great. [laughs] I mean, and it's crazy to say, right? Yeah.
4:44
I mean, it's crazy to say when you look at the lineups, but man, I, I, I think that one of these, one of these races, if not two of them, is gonna end up, we're gonna look up and go, "I can't believe we're 11 games left in the season, and this thing is within a game of each other."
4:57
Could the, could the Dodgers, since you bring them up- Mm-hmm... could the Dodgers end up, I know we've said, we, you know, I've, I've advocated not betting them up to be the number one seed. Yeah.
5:05
But I said all they care about is being the number two seed. Could the Dodgers not get a first-round bye? Yes. Yes. No, that, that is very much in play. Very much in play right now. Yeah.
5:15
Dodgers not re- like really nursing, you know? That's the thing, though, right? It's two, I mean, Milwaukee three wins ahead of them, three games ahead of them. Atlanta, a half game better than- Mm-hmm...
5:28
the Dodgers right now, so that's definitely in play as well. Again, we're just past the quarter pole, just past the, uh, third quarter mark of the season. And the Cubs have 72 wins, so they're only two wins behind them.
5:37
So I mean, the, even the Cubs could- Even the Cubs- Yeah, yeah, yeah... overtake the- Yeah... the Brewers. Yeah. That's right.
5:41
Um, remember, best of three first round, which is what you really want to avoid in the Major League Baseball playoffs, then it goes to best of five, and then best of seven by the time you get to the championship series.
5:51
Uh, tennis. Yesterday, our first really bad day tennis. I went crazy yesterday. I had eight plays in tennis, not so good. Two and six on the plays yesterday. It was not a dog kind of day.
6:03
Uh, up a, up a set and a break in one of 'em, 50 cents of CLV in another. Neither of those two things mattered.
6:10
Today, if you wanna play some tennis, and it begins here in about an hour, Thiago Agustin Tirante, who took down Novak Djokovic the other day in Novak's opening match of Cincinnati.
6:23
Cincinnati's the 1000 that directly precedes the US Open. Now, part of that was... And I- it's hard to know how much of this was Tirante. Where does Tirante end and where does Novak's health begin?
6:35
But Novak was v- was apparently vomiting on the court. The humidity got to him. N- never any good. Not g- Yeah. [laughs] Not ideal. Never any good. Not optimal.
6:42
[laughs] But I'm on Tirante today versus Martin Landaluce, who we won on the other day. Landaluce is a really good hardcore player, but Tirante minus 134, his numbers are great.
6:50
Gil, when we have three name FAA, we'll say FAA. Can he not be TAT? Can we have Tat? Can he just be Tat? He, he could be, but the number of people who would know who that is- [laughs]... is probably 0.00.
7:00
Let's start it. Let's just start it. Yeah, TAT. You know, Tat. TAT versus Martin Landaluce. We're on TAT. [laughs] We're on Tirante.
7:05
And then, uh, on the lady's side, Big Dog, Clara Tauson, plus 203 versus Linda Noskova, or Noskova, pardon me. And then, uh, Sorana Cirstea. I was surprised by this price, minus 116 versus Anna Kalinskaya.
7:17
So it's Tirante, Tauson, and Cirstea as we look to bounce back after yesterday's debacle in Cincinnati. Uh, as far as the NFL, week one preseason. I, you know, listen, everybody does reactions, overreactions.
7:32
I'm curious because you're, you're super locked into this stuff, man. Mm-hmm. Uh, and I'm curious. I'll just go down a list of some stuff.
7:39
By the way, Matt and I are gonna look at the, uh, AL West a little later on in the show, the NFC South. We'll go through a couple divisions as well. But I'll just go through these sorta chronologically- Mm...
7:47
beginning with, uh, you know, before the weekend. Drew Aller, Pittsburgh Steelers, let's start there. 10 of 13 for 153, two touchdowns. Also had a touchdown on the ground, so he accounted for three touchdowns.
7:58
Um, Pittsburgh should be excited about their future beyond Aaron Rodgers, yes or no? I mean, maybe excited about their future this season as well.
8:06
I mean, like, we're just ass- we're just assuming Aaron Rodgers is still good to go and all. Sure. And honestly, end of the day, I think he looked very washed last year.
8:13
I, I mean, I thought he was a shell of what he used to be, and it seems like he wasn't absolutely in control of what his body is able to do still. Like, Aaron Rodgers was...
8:25
When you and I remember the peak Aaron Rodgers, some s- some of the youngs back there probably don't- Man... yeah, don't remember. Man, was he good. Yes, yes, yeah.
8:31
Peak Aaron Rodgers, he had that, like, Patrick Mahomes about him, where it's like he had that escapability, he extended plays.
8:37
It was, like, never fast, but just sneaky, elusive, and, like, would make the throws and all that. He was getting run down from behind by defensive linemen last year like nobody's...
8:46
He's still trying to do the thing that just doesn't, his body won't do- Looks old... anymore. Yeah. Yeah. And so I just wonder if he's... He is still a smart guy.
8:54
If he looked in the off-season, watched some film, and goes, "I gotta, I gotta get that out of the game. I almost have to self-sack," like Brady was doing there for a while. You know, [laughs] Brady, Brady...
9:02
One of the greatest things about Brady was not only just the talent and everything of... The intelligence of going, "I'm the slowest guy maybe in the league- Yeah... so I'm just gonna fall down.
9:09
It saves two yards if I don't backpedal." Here's my question to you about that, though. Do you think... Like, how easy will it be for Mike McCarthy if, let's say Aaron Rodgers- Mm... does stink it up.
9:19
By the way, he's 42 years old. He's gonna be 43 early December. This just in, not young. Yes. How easy or hard, what, what, or, you know, where does the, what's the correct way to define this?
9:31
Will it be for Mike McCarthy if Aaron Rodgers stinks up the joint to say, "Hey, Aaron, you're done"? Yeah. I think very, very hard, and it probably ends up waiting too late for it to matter in the season.
9:40
But maybe at least you get five... Like, you know, you get five games at Aller maybe at the end of the season or something like that. Oh. You know, just to give him a little bit of game experience heading into next year.
9:48
But yes, I, I agree with you. Too hard. You bullish on Pittsburgh or bearish this year? Bearish big time. Yeah. Big, big time. We've said that before, but- Yes... yeah. Yes. Big, big time. Uh, let's see. Indianapolis.
10:00
Anthony Richardson, 11 of 14 for 145. Did throw a pick. Six carries for 53 yards, a touchdown, but he did lose a fumble. Kinda what you, [laughs] kind of the Anthony Richardson experience.
10:10
What, [laughs] what you would expect- Yes... from Anthony Richardson, exactly. Yeah.
10:13
Um, Jeremiah Love, uh, going back to before the weekend, 11 carries for 58 yards, an average of 5.3 yards per carry, but now we find out he has an high ankle sprain. This was the most crazy thing to me.
10:24
14 touches in the first preseason game for him, 'cause he caught three passes as well. Yes.
10:29
And then comes up with a high ankle sprain that, as we know, these things take three to four weeks to properly heal before you can actually get back out there. That's right.
10:37
And so you nuked him for the rest of the preseason, maybe even game one, maybe even week one of the season for, for what? I mean, I, I... This is what I just don't get about some of this stuff.
10:45
I'm all for starters playing in the preseason to get a couple of reps and stuff. But a guy that you spent [laughs] this incredibly high draft pick on, and you run him out there for 14 touches in the first preseason game?
10:56
Yeah. 14 different opportunities for something like this to happen? Ah. I don't get it. You never know that it's gonna happen, but it's always a possibility. Yeah. Uh, let me do one more before the break. Yeah.
11:05
DeJoun Stribling of the, uh, Niners, who a lot of people, once Ricky Pearsall, once, once they figured out, uh, we're gonna have to address this knee once and for all, a lot of fantasy people, a lot of Rookie of the Year voters immediately started betting DeJoun Stribling.
11:18
He did not disappoint. Seven catches, 63 yards. Yeah, I am... I thought that that was a, a, a really, really good performance, something that they're gonna need. It seems like that they're going to need there for sure.
11:29
Um, real, real quick, just jumping back. I mean, if you guys read the, the betting guide, I had unders on Jeremiah Love, like, all over the place and stuff, and that wasn't even because of this injury type of thing.
11:38
Th- th- that, that backfield's crowded, you know? And then now you see this, and you see whatever.
11:43
Wouldn't surprise me if the front office, Gil, goes, "Hey, hey, let's not run the tires off of this guy, like, you know, in this meaningless season." We'll go through a bunch more of these.
11:50
The, the curious case of the Giants, uh, the Vikings at quarterback, the Browns at quarterback, Rams, Bears, Ravens. We'll get to it all next on The Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge.
12:02
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12:12
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12:23
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, Matt, don't forget about the sharp plays. Yep.
12:41
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, alerts directly from the pros. You can scan the QR code on your screen for more, sharpplays.com. Check them out.
12:52
Skill Alexander. That's Matt Brown in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. Kelly's on assignment. We'll see what he comes back with. Uh, we get tweets to be in the book. Here's, here's exactly what I was talking about.
13:02
Nemesis Enforcer, "On Dart, the fact that Harbaugh let him go back in, there's gonna be an O-line whiff for his trumping." [laughs] He's being political, not me. I'm just telling you that was a conspiracy.
13:13
Jacco Bella said, with Pz Capital. Jacco is responsible for the, uh, Todd Wishnev purple image. Oh. For Wishnev Wednesdays. This is a great question. This has, well, this hasn't come up in a while.
13:22
It says, "When you were betting baseball heavily back in the day, did you notice your Sunday results differing from any other day of the week?
13:29
I seem to struggle on Sundays to the point where I'm considering taking that day off. Is there any merit to this?" Matt, I don't know about you, but I recall this very vividly, that Sundays were a little squirrely.
13:41
And I remember having this conver- uh, conversation with Joe Pita. He's convinced as well, and it's, 'cause it's not getaway day like Thursday- Mm... feels like getaway day.
13:50
But it does feel like, "Yeah, we're out of town here after this, so let's, uh-" Yeah, I, um- "... let's roll."
13:55
So I'm on, I'm on air here on, on Sundays and kind of have to deal with this pretty regularly, and so I give the, you know, full disclaimer. I'm like, "Listen, there's two things that are at play here.
14:04
One, it's your typical day off day for a lot of guys. Like, you got to check the lineups too." The lineups are different. Yeah. So the lineups are always different and stuff.
14:10
So, like, you know, catchers are getting days off and things and stuff like that.
14:13
And then other is they're all day games except for Sunday night baseball, and most of these dudes are playing night games, and most of these pitchers are, are creatures of habit.
14:21
And they have their routines of how they prep for their starts every single time. "I wake up at X time. I eat this. I go do this. I take a nap. I whatever and blah, blah, blah."
14:30
You can't do that when your game starts in the middle of the day, right? And so I do think that some of that happens with these, with the pitchers as well.
14:35
You just get off of your schedule, and the results vary on Sundays. And Matt Brown knows this 'cause Matt Brown used to be a pitcher. Yeah, well, you know, back, back- College level pitcher...
14:44
back in the, back, long, 20 pl- 20 plus. You know, go with 20, 20. Who, who was it that, uh, took you down? 20, 20- Ricky Weeks just destroyed a pitch of yours? Yes, yes. Yes, it was.
14:51
It w- did- [laughs] It didn't go, it, it dented the wall. It didn't, it didn't- It de- I'm sorry... hit. Yeah, yeah. I sold you short. Yeah, yeah, it dented the wall. Dented the wall. Yeah. My, my bad.
14:58
It almost went through the wall. Greg Peterson joins us now. You can follow him on Twitter at gunit_81.
15:04
Uh, Greg, not only, uh, someone we delve into his per- with his personal life, but I'm curious your answer to that question about Sunday, uh, baseball, Greg. Do you find it different than the other days of the week?
15:16
This year my Sundays have actually been quite good. In past years they've oftentimes been just all over the place. You either have really, really good days or you have really, really bad days with not a lot in between.
15:28
So that's the way it goes with Sundays, because if you decide to go a little bit contrarian, sometimes that's really good, and then sometimes exactly what you expect, you get none of it whatsoever.
15:38
So I do feel like with Sundays, it's the day of the most variance because of what you mentioned. The lineups are gonna be a little bit different.
15:46
And some of these pitchers that typically they're rocking and rolling, it's usually the day where they get dinged up a little bit more than normal.
15:53
Greg, I, I, I try to get through our segments without bringing this up, but if I don't bring it up, inevitably somebody tweets and says, "Hey, how come you didn't ask him about this?" All good on the personal front?
16:01
Things are... Dating life is good? Playing the field? How would you characterize this? Oh, things are great. Absolutely. Absolutely? Prospects? Things are great. I notice you're not writing about that.
16:10
We don't need any prospects. Things are very, very much- Whoa... cemented. Um- Oh. Whoa! All good. Cemented? Breaking news. Wait a minute. Do... uh, will you explain that before we move on?
16:19
Is this the same one from, like, a month ago? Like, I think- I'm not out there looking or anything like that, so we are, we are all good. T- about a month ago he said he had a couple of repeats.
16:29
Is this the same from a month ago? Yes. Oh. [clapping] Very much so. And they, and they said it wouldn't last. There we go. And they said it wouldn't last. There we go. Mazel tov, Greg.
16:40
Hope it, hope it gives you, uh, all the dreams come true. I'm looking forward to you writing extensively about this again on Twitter one of these days. [laughs] Uh, let's get into, uh, your fab five.
16:48
Let's start with the Orioles and the Rays. The Rays got out to a ridiculously hot start, uh, in this month of August. Still have a nice comfortable cushion in the AL East with six weeks left in the season.
16:59
They're taking on the O's today, who are now on the inside of the AL playoff picture. Look out. What do you got here?
17:07
And the Orioles trying for a four-game road sweep of the Rays, who had the best record in all of baseball at home entering into the series. I do like the money line here of the Orioles too.
17:20
Brandon Young has been very rock solid for them. Now, he does pitch you a lot of contact, 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. That's a big reason why I do like the over here.
17:29
Bookside for the Rays, you have to wonder what you're gonna get out of Shane McClanahan. This is gonna be his first start here in the month of August.
17:36
Last time he pitched was on July 30th, and since he's been out there, he's been rock solid.
17:40
He's been able to give you an ERA right around about a 308, fielding independent, relatively in line with that, only giving up right around about 0.7, 0.8 home runs per nine innings.
17:49
But another guy that pitches to a lot of contact, in his one minor league rehab start, only went three innings.
17:56
Question mark with how deep he's gonna be able to go, especially with Freddy Peralta not throwing a full five innings.
18:01
I think that that leaves you in very good shape for the over, so- I'm gonna be looking there, and on top of that, I like the Orioles at plus money again here on the money line
18:11
Greg, you know I like to fight with you when it comes to baseball.
18:13
[laughs] I like to find something that I'm on the opposite side of, and I can't do it here because I am also on the Braves today against the Twins on the road over there. Tell us why.
18:22
I'll tell everybody else later why I like it. Absolutely, and Martín Pérez is due in for some regression. So I did take the over overnight as well when this was 8.5.
18:32
He's got a 2.96 ERA and a f- 4.19 Fielding Independent. But even though I think Martín Pérez is gonna regress, man, it's often great for Bailey Ober this year. Career low, 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
18:44
He's giving up 1.5 home runs per nine innings, and then you've got the better bullpen on the side of the Atlanta Braves. Number two in terms of bullpen ERA in the National League.
18:53
The Zillans still lead, though not have been solid, and while the Twins revamped things with bringing in A.J. Minter, Jeff Hoffman at the trade deadline for their bullpen, yeah, it's still been very shaky.
19:04
Bottom eight in terms of ERA. Byron Buxton since coming off the injured list has happened h- himself, and initially for the Atlanta Braves, they continue to be a top eight offense in terms of run production.
19:14
So I took a shot on the over, and where the Braves was fighting the -120 overnight, still seeing quite a few w- -125s, I like them on the money line.
19:23
Padres and Mets, Greg, both teams playing good baseball, especially the Padres. As I mentioned earlier, 11 and 4 in this month of August. Padres, though, still probably not gonna get the division.
19:35
Still a big, big, uh, deficit to the Dodgers, though it's dwindling a little bit here of late.
19:41
Really more important for them, the wildcard situation, where they are currently in, but with only a one-game lead over the Diamondbacks. Uh, Mets are a slight favorite in this game. How are you playing it?
19:53
And how about the Mets trying to play spoiler all of a sudden? [laughs] Like, Juan Soto- For real... goes down, and when he went down, team was averaging only 4.05 runs per game.
20:04
Since he went down with an injury, they're averaging closer to 4.85 runs per game. They've been better in 21 games without Juan Soto than they were with him. Don't ask me how, don't ask me why, but hey, you know what?
20:17
The Mets are rolling. Noah McLean, in my opinion, is the better starter here.
20:21
Now, he does post up a 4.15 ERA at home compared to about a 2.80 ERA away from home, so that puts me on the over of 8, but he's the better pitcher here, in my opinion, compared to Walker Buehler, who's been posting up a 4.88 ERA.
20:32
Fielding Independent points towards positivity, but he's had his issues away from home, posting up an ERA about a 5.47. For the Padres, they do have the better bullpen.
20:41
When you're able to go to all these guys like Mason Miller and company, that does help out.
20:45
And I will say this for the Padres, averaging about 5.3 runs per game since the All-Star break, top five mark in all of baseball. Like the over, and give me the better pitcher here with McLean on the money line.
20:57
Let's talk about my White Sox here. Uh, already cashed that ticket. Yeah. The, uh, the over on, on the wins for the season. Nice.
21:04
I have a 70 plus on them as well at a little over two to one, so let's hope we at least get to 70 here. White Sox, what do you like today in that one? And they are gonna get over 70.
21:14
[laughs] I can tell you that, and I do think that they present some value here on the money line because Luis Castillo, love what I saw from him in his last start. Overall for, for the season, about a 4.95 ERA.
21:25
The overall numbers are not amazing, but 10 punch-outs in that start against the Reds. Flip side, you do have a guy in Shota Imanaga that has given up the deep ball quite a bit.
21:34
1.8 home runs per nine innings overall for the season. Last 14 starts, closer to 2.2, 2.3 home runs per nine innings. But wind should be blowing in a little bit at Wrigley Field.
21:45
Now, as the night goes along, the wind is probably gonna be dying down just a little bit, but I do think that the ball stays in the yard here. And for the White Sox, they have been a very good bullpen recently.
21:55
Since June 1st, they've been a top eight team in terms of bullpen ERA. Right now, we're seeing that total at an eight.
22:00
I was able to grab it at 8.5, but even at an eight, do like the under and the White Sox at plus money on the money line. All right.
22:06
Um, they're still the team that everybody thinks will win the World Series, I guess, but the Dodgers are, have hit the skids in a big way here. They're at the Rockies. They're at Coors.
22:16
They're huge favorites, two and a half dollars, uh, but you like the Rockies on the run line here. And we're going with the hottest pitcher in terms of making you money in all of baseball.
22:28
If you bet $100 on Tomoyuki Sugano this year, every single start that he's went out there for the Rockies, you're up $1,436. [laughs] The most profitable pitcher in all of baseball.
22:40
I'm not willing to go money line here, but I took a run line. Sugano at home, a 3.93 ERA, 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
22:48
That's down from more around 1.8, 1.9 home runs overall for the season, and like so, really nice first start off the injured list for the Dodgers.
22:57
Need to see a little bit more before I can really believe in the Dodgers being this big of a plus price. I took the under, and I took the Rockies at a run line at plus 140.
23:06
And who hasn't bet $100 on Tomoyuki Sugano- Yeah... every time he's- Every single time... been on the hill? Exactly. Mark fortune right now. Look at that smile. Oh, yeah.
23:13
That's only a smile from a guy that's, uh, been with the same girl for a month. [laughs] You see that? Look at that smile by Greg. Greg, you're the best. Thank you. Appreciate it.
23:20
Greg Peterson, everybody at G- Appreciate you. Thank you. Thank you. GUnit_81. We'll talk some AFC West and the lyrical conundrum- [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:38
Do not forget that our college football betting guide is out, shepherded by the great Adam Burke.
23:45
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23:57
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24:07
But again, just 9.99, or lock in a full year, save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We've said it before, of all of our betting guides- Yeah.
24:19
Whether that's your favorite or not, it certainly feels like it's the most important It, it's the one that you're gonna get the most out of- Yeah...
24:26
because you, one, you can't follow all these moves, and you can't wonder...
24:29
You didn't, I bet you people didn't even know how many teams were in the FBS, much less that all these teams were changing conferences and all the things like that. Oh. I mean, it's just, it's too hard.
24:37
Is that Mountain West and the Pac-12? Yeah. Completely, yeah, completely different. Uh, I wanna bring in my next guest before I read the tweets, because all the tweets are a response to, to what I asked you earlier.
24:47
Uh, Wes Reynolds joins us now. And Wes, by the way, not only part of the glue that holds this whole operation together, uh, but Wes is a bit of a musical savant, a musicologist. Can I call you that, Wes?
24:56
Is that, is that allowed? Is that permitted? Musicologist. I, I like that title. Yeah. Yes. Science of music. All right.
25:02
In the, uh, 1982, uh, Clash hit, the Clash hit Rock the Casbah, who in the chorus, quote, "Don't like it?" Who don't like it? Sharif don't like it. He, see, he knows too. Thinks it's not kosher. Yeah.
25:20
He knows too. And by the way, it makes complete sense. For 44 years I thought it was Charlene. We get tweets. Chris Heath, "Sharif." Ryan Hyatt, "Great.
25:27
Regarding misunderstood song lyrics, next thing you know Gil and Matt are gonna tell us Steve Miller didn't sing Big Old Jet had the lineup." I don't know that.
25:33
[laughs] Uh, Todd Sailhoff, "Always thought and sang she really don't like it. Figured The Clash wanted you to just put your own spin on it as who you are thinking about."
25:42
Uh, Spence, "They made up Sharif based on Iranian hardline leaders because they didn't like rock music in the early '80s. Sharif is in the video too." Yeah, no, it makes complete sense.
25:49
And Easy Breezy, "Of course it's Sharif from The Clash. Props to your, props to your bro for recalling the liner notes with lyrics. The Clash were one of the few at the time that included lyric sheets with the album."
25:58
I, again, I'm flabbergasted. I'm amazed at everybody here on Twitter.
26:02
Uh, w- we're getting a way higher hit rate on Twitter than with all my friends, who almost to a man, I think I have one person who knew it besides my brother, eight out of nine others had no idea.
26:13
Ryan, Ryan referring to the, uh, Jet Airliner song. Big Old Jet Airliner. Oh. Big old jet airliner. What did I say? No, he's, he's, he was saying that people- Oh, he said jet airliner. Yeah.
26:22
'Cause, because he's saying that people- Big old jet airliner. Yeah, yeah, people just, yeah. Got it. Not getting the, the lyrics correct. Wes?
26:27
Well, well, to get, like, triple the tweets, you'll need to do the Manfred Mann Blinded by the Light, uh, uh- Oh... always confused lyric. Uh- Wrapped up, yeah... wrapped up like a deuce. That's right.
26:37
Uh, the other thing. That's right. Yes. Wrapped up like a deuce. Then, uh, Jimmy Buffett had a salt and, salt and pepper shaker or something like that. There was another thing there. Mm-hmm.
26:45
Uh, Wes, Scottie Scheffler, did you have him this weekend? I did not, but, uh- Even better... I had the, uh, foresight. Yeah, buddy.
26:53
I actually had a, I had the foresight, or I've tried this several times before, hadn't worked, but went in the winner without market because we on Long Shots thought, "Okay, this guy's probably gonna win this tournament."
27:05
And, and, you know, he's coming close to winning. He's not played poorly. He just hadn't won since, like, late January. Yeah.
27:11
So, uh, uh, we had some interest in the end if you didn't have Scottie Scheffler, uh, who was gonna get second place, and it was, uh, uh, Si Woo Kim fortunately that cashed at 25 to 1 in the winner without market.
27:23
So it was a race between him and Sam Burns and, uh, and a couple others up there. And, uh, Si Woo Kim, uh, gets outright second, eight shots back. Now, why were you clapping like that when he said he didn't have him?
27:35
Be- because it was, he needed, so he, Kelly and I both had Sam Burns. Yeah. W- if, if my guy was not going to win,
27:44
I needed the collapse so at least Wes's guy could get second, and Sam Burns goes out and bogeys 18 to give Wes the outright second in this, so he didn't have to chop it up with- Oh, I see...
27:57
with, with, with Sam Bur- It, like, it was, it was great. It was, I w- I'm sitting there rooting for my guy that I had this ticket on to, to bogey this hole. I'm like, "Come on, man. Like, come on.
28:05
You've been playing terrible all day long. Continue playing terrible." Uh, for those who missed it, Scottie Scheffler hadn't won since January at the American Express.
28:13
We had made a big deal about it on this show, that he hadn't won. But he closed with a 466 for an eight-shot victory. Man, when he finally won, he won big.
28:21
Uh, li- it got a little dicey early yesterday, but the largest margin in 68 years of the TPC Southwind. Uh, he had a 61, by the way, in the second round. That, that helped, uh, a, a tad.
28:31
But it's the 11th straight time he converted a 54-hole lead into a win, the 21st victory of his career, all since 2022. Just going through his career stats here.
28:40
Near, uh, as I said, nearly, uh, ends nearly seven months without a title during a season that featured five runner-up finishes and nearly seven months of close calls.
28:48
Oh, by the way, he wins 3.6 million from the prize fund and clinched an additional 23 million in bonus money for being guaranteed number one in the FedEx Cup through next week's BMW Championship. Yeah. And now, um,
29:02
two victories, five runner-up finishes, five other top fours in another stellar year that until, uh, yesterday was marked by his lack of winning. Um, I'll just throw it out to you guys.
29:12
Where, where is his place now in sort of modern history of golf, or, or the whole history of golf? W- Clear best player in the world- Yeah... I, I, I think right now.
29:23
And, you know, uh, the, the comparisons to Tiger, I think, get, uh, really a little bit much. I, there, there's just no comparison for what he did.
29:33
But one thing that is similar is that both of those players mentioned are great frontrunners. And you saw it this weekend.
29:40
I was on with, uh, Matt on Saturday on Ready Set Bet here on VSiN, and I was like, "Man, this guy's such a good frontrunner." You know, it's not over, but boy, it feels close.
29:51
And, and he proved to be a great frontrunner, to be the only guy double digits under par and 17 under and win by eight. So he's the clear best player.
29:59
And, and we were talking about the fact that player of the year is kind of still up for grabs because it's not been as convincing as it's been in years past. But he's the player of the year as far as I'm concerned. Mm.
30:09
Even with no major championship, he's been the best player. The stats are all there. He's, like, number one tee to green, number one strokes gained total, uh, high up off the tee, high in putting, high in approach.
30:22
Like, every major strokes gained statistical category, he is up there near the top of the heap. So- I think maybe Sunday made it very clear that he's the favorite for player of the year after that dominating performance.
30:36
I'm a little more okay with the Tiger comparisons because of the depth of the fields that he's going up against each and every week. Like, Tiger teed it up against four or five other guys every week.
30:48
This guy's teeing it up against 35 guys every week, like, that can actually go out and really contend and win on a, on a, any g- any tournament, any course, any layout, any anything. And he just continues to...
31:00
I mean, you, you me- you mentioned the outright second. 11 top fives. I mean, like, you know, 11 top fives over the course- Yeah... of the season as well. Yeah.
31:07
So it doesn't matter the course, it doesn't matter the, the playing conditions, it doesn't matter what it is, it, 11 top fives. I say that about tennis too. Like, if you take women's tennis. Chrissy and Martina, right?
31:16
Mm. They were so much better than most other players. Maybe there was, like, two other, three other players- Mm... that could compete. And now it's you're beating 15 to 20- Yeah...
31:25
other girls when you win these tournaments. So s- it, it, it's v- Yeah... it's, it's akin to that. Mm. Um, Wes, long shots. Wes, Matt, Kelly tomorrow again, or is Kelly off this week? No, Kelly's donezo. Kelly's donezo.
31:36
Mm-hmm. Kelly's off this week. Long shots. I- Fired. What? Fired? Fired. [laughs] I suspended him for this week.
31:41
[laughs] Uh, you can scan the QR code on your screen for more if you wanna download and subscribe to Long Shots, the greatest golf podcast there ever was.
31:50
Uh, Wes, you have a baseball play for us today at the, uh, Great American Small Park in Cincinnata. What do you got? I, I do, and speaking of St.
31:58
Louis, where the BMW Championship will be this week at Bellerive, uh, the Redbirds take on the road.
32:03
It is a double header there in Cincinnati, and I went, in the first game, I went with Quinn Matthews, who is not a regular starter in the rotation, but went 97 pitches last time around, and he's up against the Reds team, my Cincinnati Reds, who are dead last in WRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
32:22
So it's not like Matthews is a high-end starter, but it's 13 and a half outs. That means basically you're trying to get him to go five, and that's what I think, uh, uh, the plan is there.
32:33
Because you never wanna use your bullpen as much in the first game.
32:37
If you watch the rare instances where we have double headers, you're always trying to extend that, unless it's a designated bullpen game, you're always trying to stretch that starter as far as you can because you know you've got him at night, and you've got another game.
32:52
So, uh, Quinn Matthews over the outset here as the, uh, the Reds, uh, continue to play horrible and have now pretty much fallen out of the NL Wild Card race. Mm.
33:02
This comes up, so I just wanna put you on the spot here, Wes. The Dodgers in a, uh, it's a swoon. It's a, it's an out, it's an out and out swoon here.
33:11
But we always sort of figure, right, in previous years, and it worked out last year, yeah, they don't have to be the number one seed. They only care about the playoffs. They'll win the World Series, no problem.
33:18
Does this feel different to you? Does this feel like this is a little harder to actually right the ship from, and maybe we should slow the roll on just penciling them in to a World Series appearance and title?
33:31
Uh, especially if they- I think it very-... if they don't avoid the first round. Yeah, I think it very well could be different, Gil, because it's not just one thing.
33:38
Like, it's easy to point at Edwin Diaz and, you know, how sketchy he has been in the closer role lately, but they're not hitting. They're flat out not hitting at all.
33:48
They made all these moves, obviously, to shore up the starting pitching staff with Scoob all, and, you know, able to move Sheehan and, uh, Robleski eventually out into kinda middle relief.
33:58
But they're not hitting at all, and Dave Roberts finally, like, called them out after the game yesterday. Yes. So we'll see if they get the bat rights at, uh, Coors Canaveral, uh, here in this, uh, three-game set.
34:07
And you were saying, Matt, off air, Kyle Tucker is literally not hitting at all. Yeah. [laughs] Yes. Yes. Over his last 19. Yes. Literally not hitting at all. Over his last 19. Wes, always a pleasure, man.
34:16
Thank you so much. You got it, fellas. Thank you. The musicologist, Wes Reynolds, right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN Sports Betting Network. Matt's got some baseball plays today. That's next. Coming back.
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35:20
Uh, Shrek McPhee has tweeted, and he goes, "Uh, seems like this isn't getting enough attention, Gil. CMC has missed his seventh consecutive practice with, quote, 'tightness,' unquote. 2024 vibes," he says. Substation.
35:34
[laughs] Every time. Substation. Yep. That's it. Gotta be it. Gotta be it. Gotta be it. Paul Morphy. Not Murphy, Morphy. It was absolutely She Don't Like It. Must've been a clean version released in the South,
35:48
as opposed to Sharif. Talking about The Clash's, uh- Oh, She Don't... Okay, I see what you... All right... The Clash's Rock the Casbah. Got it.
35:55
And then Jeremiah Crow over at The Win says, uh, "Electric Light Orchestra, Don't Bring Me Down, that the actual word is 'groos' that they say in that song. A made-up word. People s- think it's 'Bruce.'" Ah.
36:06
A lot of those, man. Uh- We just, we just said a few that were just dumb. Yeah, that, that all of them. The, yeah. Yeah. Some of these are dumb. Not worth repeating. Yeah.
36:14
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's as ornery as ever because he thinks I'm going to, uh, talk smack about his Guardians. It's Adam Burke, the glue that holds this whole operation together.
36:22
You can follow him at Twitter, or on Twitter at skatingtripods. Adam, good morning, sir. Hey, what's happening, boys? How we doing? Uh, we're doing very well.
36:30
Listen, I only had to wait a year and three quarters for the Guardians to finally have a swoon. You hate this team, don't you? Tell him. Uh, yeah.
36:38
Um, they're, they're a remarkably hard watch, and honestly, I was thinking about it today. I think the worst thing about this season is how bad Travis Bazan looks at the plate. You know what I mean?
36:48
He, yes, you love to- You can't get one one wrong. You just can't do it, and there's tons of development time left for him, but
36:56
based on kind of the guys who were taken around him and based on how he looks here so far, uh, the Guardians may have made the wrong pick there.
37:02
And when you get gifted that spot as a team that doesn't spend any money whatsoever, you can't get that one wrong. And man, his Baseball Savant page does not look good. [laughs] That does not look good.
37:16
You, you have a prop. Let's get to your picks first. You got a prop in this Marlins-Phillies game? Yeah, this one's actually gotten a little bit better, uh, since I wrote this one up here this morning.
37:24
It's Jansen Junk of the Marlins over one and a half walks allowed. This one's up, out to plus 159 now. Uh, DraftKings it was plus 151 when I wrote it up here this morning.
37:35
Uh, look, he's the guy who doesn't walk a whole lot of people, so it's understandable that this one's at plus money.
37:39
But in six starts since coming off the IL, he has walked two plus guys in three of them, so 50% hit rate on this one right now.
37:47
Um, but look, you got Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott all well above average walk rates against right-handed pitching.
37:53
A guy who has a higher walk rate on the road, higher walk rate against left-handed batters on the road. You know, he just has a little bit more of a safety net at Loan Depot Park when he's pitching at home.
38:03
I think maybe he nibbles a little bit here tonight. His zone percentage is down 4% on the road compared to at home. Uh, gonna be humid tonight in Philadelphia, maybe some grip issues on the baseball.
38:14
I think this one's worth a shot here tonight. Jansen Junk of the Marlins over one and a half walks allowed, now out to plus 159 out there at DraftKings. We got a double header today between the Cardinals and the Reds.
38:25
Both teams, by the way, playing eight games this week, so eight game weeks for both of the Cardinals and the Reds. You are looking at the second game of the double header.
38:33
Yeah, I typically don't like to play game two so far in advance because you never know what happens in game one, right? You don't know who's gonna get hurt- Mm... what the bullpen usage may look like, stuff like that.
38:42
Uh, but I wanted to jump on this one. This is a line that's actually gotten a little bit better and moved against me as well here.
38:47
Uh, with André Pallante on the mound for the Cardinals tonight, Rhett Lowder going for the Reds. Couple of things here. I mean, this is largely anecdotal.
38:55
I, I don't have any evidence to support this, but I would think it's easier to play a day night double header as the road team because what would you be doing anyway, right?
39:04
You'd just kind of be chilling in the hotel or getting to the ballpark early or something like that.
39:09
So I think a long day like this kind of favors the away team a little bit 'cause the home team, you know, you got all the familial obligations when you're playing at home and stuff like that.
39:18
Uh, but also I just think big pitching advantage for the Cardinals in this game tonight. This is not the kind of guy that you wanna face i- in Pallante in, in the second game of a double header.
39:28
Pitch to contact guy, very extreme ground ball rate, elite defensive team behind him. It's hard to string hits together after a long day, and that's what the Reds are gonna be asked to do here tonight.
39:38
Not to mention, I mean, the Cardinals should just be more engaged, right? I mean, you know, they're in the wild card hunt, three and a half back starting play today. The Reds are seven back.
39:47
You know, run differential in the minus 80s. They're just not a very good baseball team. So like the Cardinals here tonight, I don't really believe in Lowder's recent run here.
39:55
Still has a double digit barrel rate over his last four starts, despite allowing only two earned runs in all four of them.
40:02
I'm not really a big fan of him, and I just think, you know, the Cardinals have a deeper bullpen as well, you know, when you look at the context of a double header.
40:09
So I went ahead and took Arizona here, or excuse me, St. Louis here today, uh, in game two of this double header in Cincinnati. Adam, uh, Fenway, we have an interleague game between the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox.
40:21
Red Sox famously won 27 of 30. Since then, they have lost seven of nine. Ah, baseball, we love you. Diamondbacks one game out, speaking of the wild card race in the NL, one game out on the outside looking in.
40:35
What do you got today in this one? Yeah, I'll lay it today with the Red Sox. I mean, I've never seen anything like the season that Bryan Bello has had here for the Red Sox.
40:46
1035 ERA as a starter and 35 and two thirds, and 48 innings as a reliever, pitching in bulk relief, a.75 ERA. [laughs] That's amazing.
40:57
So I, I, I don't know, like, what the deal is with relieving for him, but he's certainly been much better in that role than he has been as a starter.
41:05
Alec Gamboa's gonna open here today for the Red Sox, but he's not, like, a traditional opener. He can actually go multiples if you want him to.
41:12
So it's kind of a piggyback-ish type of situation here, uh, you know, for the Red Sox. Arizona, another team that, you know, doesn't have a super, super high payroll. They love to use platoons and stuff like that.
41:23
An opener kind of derails that a little bit with the lefty Gamboa, the righty in Bello. Uh, but also Mitch Brat is staring down the barrel of a lot of negative regression here.
41:34
This is a guy who does not have good strikeout to walk ratios, uh, pitches to contact, doesn't miss a whole lot of bats.
41:41
When he's not missing bats, he's missing the strike zone or hitting, you know, the meaty part of the bat.
41:46
So I guess it's a good spot for the Red Sox to kind of bounce back a little bit here offensively against a guy that is going to a very good hitter's park.
41:54
Not that Chase Field isn't, but you know, climate controlled and all those kinds of things.
41:58
For a guy who already has control and command issues, now going and pitching outdoors in a historically great offensive venue, I think it's a pretty tough spot here for Brat.
42:08
So I went ahead and laid this number with the Red Sox here today, up in that minus 135, minus 140 range. Adam, you... Oh, I'm sorry, go ahead. No, I was just gonna say, uh, with...
42:17
I didn't wanna switch gears, so if you have a baseball question, go, go right ahead. No, no, no. It's football. Go ahead.
42:20
I was g- I was gonna say, um, good to have you on as the, uh, proprietor here of our, of our college football guide as the, uh, the AP poll has dropped, Gil. Oh.
42:30
Our first AP poll, 'cause, you know, we know how good these teams are before they've ever played a snap. Very exciting. Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas your top five.
42:40
40 first place votes for Ohio State, 14 for Oregon, none for Georgia, six for Notre Dame. You get to sixth where Indiana is, they get eight first place votes, but are fi- Mm... finish at sixth there in the poll.
42:50
To round out the top 10, Miami, A&M, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. So we get first place votes for Oklahoma, uh, for Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Indiana. Miami gets a first place vote as well.
43:05
What do you think of it, what do you think of preseason polls, buddy? Uh, well I, I, I think that, you know, it's kind of interesting to get sort of a lay of the land of what kind of the masses may end up thinking.
43:16
You know, we know the people who take sports betting seriously and, you know, people who listen to us, people who follow us, people who work for us, we know the polls are pretty irrelevant.
43:24
You know, they don't really matter. But they do matter to some people out there, kind of the more casual sports bettors.
43:29
So maybe they will get kind of fooled at times into thinking the teams are better than they're going to be or something like that. Um, I have Ohio State number one in the country by a half a point in my power ratings.
43:39
Notre Dame number two, Oregon number three, Indiana four, Georgia five tied with Texas. So, you know, that's kind of my top five here.
43:47
But again, like you said, I mean, there's so much turnover in college football a- and really it's all about how quickly these teams can gel, you know, if there's not a lot of continuity year in and year out.
43:58
And that can be a really, really hard thing. I mean, Indiana historic season lost a lot of production, a lot of really, really talented players. And that's a program that's not really used to doing that.
44:08
Ohio State is used to doing that. They're never surprised when they lose a bunch of top guys. They kind of bring back a lot more than you would think an Ohio State team would. So I get it. I understand the hype.
44:19
Um, I personally don't think Ohio State is gonna wind up winning the Big 10. Um, but, you know, again, the, these polls are, they're gonna change a lot over the first few weeks of the season for sure.
44:29
Do you have a Heisman thought or play for us, Adam, before the season starts? Um, you know, that's something I'm still kind of digging into.
44:37
It's, it's a market that, you know, obviously there's a lot of hype based on the guys who are coming back, and maybe a lot less hype about the guys that we maybe don't know a whole lot about yet.
44:46
And those are kind of the guys I like to look at, kind of the long shot prices that may get better as the season goes along, as opposed to, you know, holding my money for six months on a, you know, guy who's in the 7 to 1 range, something like that.
44:58
Yeah. CJ Carr of Notre Dame, the short shot heading into the season at 7 to 1. There's Arch, Arch Manning of Texas +750, Dante Moore of Oregon 11 to 1, and, uh, Darien Mens of Miami at +1150.
45:10
Everybody else 12 to 1 or longer, starting with Julian Saint, and there's Trinidad Chambliss hanging out at 13 to 1. Interesting thought there. Josh Hoover, of course, quarterbacking Indiana also at 13 to 1 this season.
45:22
Adam, appreciate it very much. Thank you so much. Have a good one, boys. Adam Burke, everybody, @skatingtripod. Coming back on The Numbers Game right here on-
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