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Aug 1, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 1, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 1, 2024
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43:42
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. All right, we are back here on VSiN. 30 minutes to go, which means we gotta give you our best stuff.
0:13
So let's bring in this gentleman, senior analyst from Rotoworld. He is a host on Sirius XM NBA. His name is Nick Whelan. Follow him on X @Whelan with the L as a one.
0:23
Um, Nick, great to talk to you, pal, because we get to, uh, continue to wax poetic about my favorite division, the AFC East. And I keep going back and forth on the Bills. I, I think here's where I'm at with the Bills.
0:35
I think Buffalo's defense is really good. I think Buffalo's offense has one of the best players in the sport. I just don't know how it all fits together, 'cause I think Sean McDermott can be a little bit wonky sometimes.
0:48
And I think they play in a very difficult division with a very difficult schedule, and there's a lot of moving parts this year with the defense.
0:55
So I- I've had people sell me on Buffalo and it, it's like when someone says, "Hey, Jared, go watch this show. It's the best show on TV." That's like the best way not to get me to watch a show.
1:05
So try to sell me on the Bills without selling me too hard, because I've been sold so many times and I'm still not there yet.
1:12
Well, y- you guys know, I mean, I was out there, what, a month ago, you know, hanging with you guys at, at the D doing, doing some live hits, and I'm, I'm kinda, I'm lower on this Bills team than most, right?
1:22
I, I, I think it... I am with you in that the sense that I get is that everybody's either trying to talk you in or out of the Bills.
1:28
[laughs] There's not a whole lot of like, "Yeah, I think that maybe they'll just win nine or 10 games." I, I think this team is, is kind of flirting with, with danger this season.
1:35
I, I, I don't love how this roster looks compared to years past. I think you look at the, the offensive side of the ball in particular, you got a nice ascending young tight end in Dalton Kincaid. That's great.
1:45
You get, you got a nice young running back in James Cook who took a step forward. You have arguably the second-best quarterback in the NFL in Josh Allen. But what do you have at wide receiver, right?
1:54
You didn't really go out and replace Stefon Diggs. Yeah, you go and get Keon Coleman early in round two, but you know, the early returns on him have been a little bit shaky in training camp.
2:04
I think depending on a second round wide receiver to replace what Stefon Diggs brought you, even in a down year for Stefon Diggs, he's still a borderline elite receiver, right?
2:12
I mean, he's still almost 1,200 yards, um, you know, despite tapering off towards the end of the season. Got off to a really hot start. I think he had 500 yard receiving games in the first six weeks of the season.
2:21
Asking Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, just a reminder, uh, is in this receiving corps, it, I, I think there's a chance that they take a step back offensively and, you know, one of the things that, that really scares me about the Bills this season, it's a really, really difficult division, and they have a really, really difficult out of division schedule.
2:41
The Jags, the Ravens, the Texans, the Chiefs, the Niners, the Rams, the Lions, all those teams are on the schedule out of division. And of course, you know, the Jets are not gonna be a pushover this season.
2:51
Assuming Aaron Rodgers is healthy, Miami should be just as good if not better than a season ago. There's a reason, guys, that, you know, this is forecasted as maybe the most difficult division race right now.
3:01
It's the only division where we have three teams listed at two to one or shorter. Yeah, the, the schedule does them no favors. It's, last year it was one of the easiest schedules- Yes... in the NFL.
3:12
This year it's one of the toughest, and one of the biggest scheduling advantages for Buffalo is that late season winter kick. Well, look at the teams- Yeah... at the back half of the season that they play at home.
3:26
None of them are w- are, are, are cold weather. They're all cold weather teams. Patriots, Jets. Right. Like, it- you're going to Detroit indoors, you're going to the Rams indoors, and then you're going to New England.
3:36
Mm. That's obviously a, a, a, a layup game, uh, in week 18. But for the most part, the back half of their schedule is not a- as advantageous with the home games.
3:46
And the front part of the schedule, they play four primetime games the first six weeks of the season, and they're not easy opponents, right?
3:55
Dolphins, Jags on Monday night, then Ravens on the road, then you go play the Texans- Mm-hmm... then you're going back to Jets. I mean, there is a scenario here where they start two and four.
4:05
And I'm not saying they can't win the division after starting two and four, but this is, i- it's setting up to be one of those situations where I do think the floor is relatively stable because of Josh Allen and their defense.
4:16
Yep. But I don't think the ceiling is very high for the Bills this year. Is that a fair assessment? Absolutely. I, I think that's exactly how I view it, right?
4:25
I, I, I think this is a team that I would be very surprised if they, if they run away with this division.
4:29
You know, I think, I think it's a division that, much like last season, probably comes down to week 17, week 18, and, you know, you have to remember Buffalo went through the doldrums midway through last season.
4:39
They needed kind of this miraculous run- Yep... at the end of last year just to make the playoffs, just to get to 11 wins.
4:45
And if they do get off to a slow start, as you're suggesting, which is very possible given how that schedule lines up, I mean, they, they have a really, really tough stretch after Arizona, which is a very b- very winnable game at home in week one.
4:57
You gotta go to Miami, which is kinda the equivalent of going to Buffalo in December. Going to Miami in early September when it's gonna be 92 degrees and 95% humidity.
5:05
You gotta play the Jags, you gotta play the Ravens, you gotta play the Texans, and the Jets in consecutive weeks.
5:10
I mean, it, it's really hard to, you know, imagine Buffalo coming out of that stretch feeling great about itself.
5:15
And, you know, asking a team to, to kinda claw back in a really difficult division two years in a row, i- it's a little bit dicey to me.
5:21
And, you know, in some ways it, it, this roster kinda reminds me of the, the one Aaron Rodgers year post Davante Adams, right? Where he forces his way out to the Raiders. They don't really replace him.
5:31
They brought in Christian Watson. You know, he showed some flashes. He was injured. He, he didn't really make the impact that they hoped he would in year one.
5:38
And I, I think if Keon Coleman doesn't hit the ground running You know, I, I know there are people in the fantasy community who are excited about Khalil Shakir, who still think Curtis Samuel is this, this underrated guy that we're, you know, going on, like, year six of maybe this is the year he breaks out.
5:51
Uh, you're just asking a lot, uh, you know, especially when you compare the Buffalo Bills to, to some of the other elite teams in the AFC, right? I mean, you have a, a big time hill to climb.
5:59
If you, if you're talking about this team as a Super Bowl contender, a lot of things have to go right for the Buffalo Bills beyond Josh Allen having an elite season, just to be mentioned in that same category as teams like the Chiefs, and the Bengals, and the Ravens.
6:12
Let's go to another polarizing team, and it seems like there's three very polarizing teams in this division. Um, I, I think the Dolphins- Yeah... are very intriguing to me.
6:20
Um, last year they faced one of the easiest schedules, and they faced the second-most backup quarterbacks of any team in the NFL. And this year- Mm-hmm...
6:30
um, they do not face, um, uh, any of those [laughs] backup quarterbacks.
6:34
They face actually one of the toughest schedules of opposing quarterbacks, and this is on the heels of replacing Vic Fangio and Christian Wilkins, and of course, the secondary's- Mm-hmm... very different.
6:44
Howard's out, Fuller's in. They still have Jalen Ramsey. The defense is going to be tested this year. I think their offense is gonna be good, as long as Tua stays healthy. Yeah.
6:51
I think their offense is gonna be good, but I don't know what the defense is going to look like. You're obviously playing a division with Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
6:58
You play- face a ton of other very difficult quarterbacks this year.
7:03
It could be a scenario where, uh, the Dolphins have got to score 30, 35 points every week in order to win games, and I just don't know if that's sustainable.
7:11
You know, last year it was sustainable for about half of the season, and then, you know, the Dolphins offense kinda, you know, tapered off over the final, you know, six or seven weeks, and that's, that's kinda been their MO over the last couple of years.
7:22
It feels like they, they have this kinda scheme advantage over teams early in the season, and then, you know, defensive coordinators tend to catch up- Mm-hmm...
7:28
and, and kinda catch wind of what they're doing as the year goes along. I mean, I think boom or bust is, is kinda the right word for the Dolphins. Yep.
7:34
I think they, they probably have a higher floor than a true bust team. You know, it'd be, it'd be shocking if this team won, like, six or seven games, barring some major injuries.
7:41
Like, I, I still think this is a, a very, very elite offensive roster.
7:45
I mean, I, I don't know if there's a team in the league that has the level of, you know, kinda game-breaking type of offensive players that the Dolphins do, but a lot of those guys are fragile, right?
7:53
It felt like if you watched the Dolphins week in and week out last year, Jalen Waddle and/or Tyreek Hill [laughs] were, were constantly, like, limping their way to the sidelines. It was like, are they gonna come back in?
8:01
Are they not gonna come back in? That's just kinda how this team is constructed.
8:04
And, you know, I'm, I'm also not completely sold that Tua Tagovailoa is just now going to be a, a healthy 16, 17 game quarterback the rest of the way.
8:13
We're only one year removed from talking about Tua being, like, one concussion away, not only from missing significant time, but maybe, like, his career being over. Yeah.
8:20
And credit to Tua, credit to the Dolphins for doing a much better job of protecting him and, and keeping him away from those big hits last season.
8:27
But I, I'm not ready to just kinda pencil him in as a guy that we can just say is going to be healthy going forward. And obviously, if he goes down, they're gonna be in, in big time trouble.
8:36
They do have an easier schedule overall than the Buffalo Bills, but like you said, I mean, the chances that they end up facing as many battered quarterbacks as they did last season, uh, is pretty unlikely.
8:46
I don't mind, you know, betting the Dolphins in this division. Like we said, all three of those teams kinda hovering around at the plus 180 to two to one range.
8:53
I, I think you could argue that Miami has the highest ceiling, especially offensively, uh, of the three contenders in this division. But you're, you're totally right to wonder about that defense.
9:02
I mean, they lost some key pieces defensively. But at the same time, you also gotta remember they only had Jalen Ramsey for a handful of games last year.
9:09
I mean, he was out for the vast majority, basically the first three quarters of the season. And you know I'm a Jags guy. Deep down, I still have a soft spot [laughs] for Jalen Ramsey.
9:16
I think when he's, when he is on, he is still one of the best defensive backs in the NFL. But again, you're, you're relying a lot on star power. It's, it's a... [clears throat] Excuse me.
9:24
It's a top-heavy Miami roster, and if those guys stay healthy, they're gonna be really good. If they have two or three key injuries, then yeah, this could totally go south. Yeah.
9:33
I, I wanna make sure we give the third and al- also equally polarizing team in this division- Yes... its fair due, which is the New York Jets. So we will save our Jets analysis for the other side.
9:43
Um, but I will say this: Are we all in agreement here that Patriots under four and a half wins is really the best bet [laughs] in this division?
9:49
[laughs] Uh, well, you know, we'll, we'll see what, uh, what Joe Milton can do, who's been lighting up training camp- Oh, okay... over the last week. But, uh, yeah, I'm with you, man.
9:58
I, I think, I think the Pats are gonna struggle. I mean, they, they, they got... Who knows what's going on even with Matthew Judon, who's arguably their best defensive player right now. Yeah.
10:05
Um, yeah, it's, it's, it's weird.
10:06
You know, it's, it's like what's kinda happened with the San Antonio Spurs over the last couple of years in the NBA, where you're just like, "I'm, I'm not used to this team being a bottom feeder."
10:13
It doesn't, it doesn't feel like the Patriot way or the Spurs way for this team to win, you know, 19 games in the Spurs case. But it, it's a new area, uh, new era of Patriots football.
10:21
I think we have to kinda start to view this franchise differently. Belichick's out the door. Brady's been out the door. Um, yeah, I'm with you. I, I, I think the Pats are gonna be a bottom feeder.
10:28
That game at the Jets week three, rookie head coaches on Thursday Night Football in their first Thursday night game, five and 18 against the spread. Circle the Jets- Mm-hmm... in that week three game.
10:41
That is a bet to make, um, very soon. All right, we're gonna come back, and we're gonna talk about the Jets. My team. Nick's got some thoughts on it. We will wrap up a numbers game on the other side.
10:51
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Go to vsin.com right now.
11:08
Again, I was saying this earlier in the show, and I'm still on the page now because I, I need to do some research for tonight's game. There's a preseason game tonight.
11:15
Uh, Matt Youmans has the quarterback depth charts, all of them, for all 32 teams. Very useful information as we get ready for the preseason.
11:21
All of that, plus best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, tools, and the betting guide. NFL, college football out now. It's all available to you at vsin.com.
11:32
All right, let's wrap up the show with Nick Whelan here, senior analyst for RotoWire, joins us via the Progressive guest line. Nick, let's get right into the Jets. Here's where I'm at with the Jets this year.
11:40
I think they're the best team in the division, top to bottom, nose to toes, nuts and bolts.
11:46
But obviously, when you have a 41-year-old quarterback coming off on an Achilles injury, it's hard for me to just shove all of my chips into the middle.
11:53
But in a vacuum, with the defense as constructed, with Aaron Rodgers, the offensive line, which has been completely renovated during the off-season, this feels like a championship caliber unit.
12:05
But it's a 41-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury, and who knows when he's gonna go off to Egypt again and do ayahuasca.
12:10
So really hard for me to just shove all those long-term chips into the middle, but it feels like they're the right choice in the division this year in a vacuum.
12:19
I, I think there is a case to be made that somehow the Jets might be the safest, uh, of the three teams- [laughs]... that we've discussed, and that, that really comes down to Aaron Rodgers' health.
12:26
But it, it's, it's part of what makes the AFC East so interesting, right? I mean, Buffalo has the best quarterback. The Dolphins, to me, have the best skill talent. The Jets have the best defense, right?
12:35
They're, they're all three teams that have three different strengths. And, you know, last year on a lot of levels felt like a disaster for the Jets.
12:42
When you lose Aaron Rodgers two snaps into the season, that's just how it's gonna go. But this team found its way into seven wins last year. Seven wins w- with Zach Wilson primarily functioning at quarterback.
12:52
They beat the Bills, they beat the Eagles, they beat the Texans. Like, there, there are somehow good wins on this Jets schedule.
12:57
And I think if you, you know, if, if you just insert Aaron Rodgers and assume he's going to be relatively healthy and look, for the most part, like the guy he's been even late in his career.
13:05
He won two MVPs not that long ago. It's pretty easy to dream on the upside, uh, of this Jets team. And I, I, I for one hope Aaron Rodgers stays healthy.
13:13
I don't hold a lot of vitriol for him, despite, you know, sitting here in the state of Wisconsin right now. I still want Aaron Rodgers to succeed as a football player, at least, on the field this season.
13:22
And, you know, I, I, I think we're gonna see a completely different Jets team. We didn't even get a taste of what this team could be last season with Rodgers at the helm.
13:29
I mean, it's, it's a little bit like the Falcons and, and Kirk Cousins, right, in a lot of ways, where you're like, man, you're going from Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
13:35
Kirk Cousins stays healthy, we could really see this offense take off on a level that we haven't seen in a long time, and that's how I feel about the Jets. You got an elite running back in Breece Hall.
13:43
You got an elite wide receiver in Garrett Wilson. Obviously, the defense should be just as good, if not better, than it was a year ago. And the Jets, they get the benefit of that last place schedule, right? Yep.
13:52
They have one of the softer schedules in the NFL this season out of division. Now, you gotta go to San Francisco in week one.
13:58
That's gonna be an incredibly difficult spot, but that is a, that is a stadium in which Aaron Rodgers has traditionally played well throughout his career. After that, though, a, a pretty nice run.
14:07
I mean, there is a window to a 4-1 start here for the New York Jets. Week two, you're on the road at Tennessee and Will Levis. Week three, you're home for the Patriots.
14:15
Week four, you get what could be a very bad Broncos team at home, and then week five, you go to the Minnesota Vikings. Yeah, I, I, I'm very high.
14:22
So the bet that I made on the Jets that I would recommend making is for them to be the last undefeated team. You're getting that at, like, 16/1. Essentially, it's a week one bet at San Francisco. Right.
14:34
I- i- if they beat the Niners in week one, which are, they're about a 2/1 dog right now, about a five-point dog, then the rest of the schedule opens up.
14:43
I- they do play, right, right out of the gate, they play a three, three-game, 11-day stretch right there. Or actually, 10-game stretch. The first game's Monday night. Monday, Sunday, Thursday. Yep.
14:52
But if you're gonna play a three-game stretch in 10 days, wouldn't you want it to be the first three weeks of the year when you're completely fresh?
15:01
And also, for Aaron Rodgers, do you think, like, the pre-season not playing is the right decision?
15:06
I, I kinda think yes, because w- who are you trying to pr- like, w- w- why does he need to play in the pre-season besides vanity?
15:14
I mean, it just, it makes sense to just conserve all the energy for those first three games. You get through those first, really, those first two games. Two tough games.
15:22
That's San Francisco, and then I know Tennessee's not tough, but it's on the road back to back short week. Like, it, the schedule really opens up for the Jets if they can figure out a way to start fast. Yeah, absolutely.
15:33
And, you know, I think you can win some of those games just with your defense, right?
15:36
It's like, I think the argument against Aaron Rodgers playing in the pre-season, one, is that, okay, is this because he's still dealing with some lingering Achilles issues?
15:43
That's a, a whole separate discussion and a bigger concern, but, you know, I, I think the other concern would be, all right, is, is, does he, has he had enough time to, to build the chemistry necessary with these pass catchers?
15:54
It's Aaron Rodgers. I think he's gonna be fine. He's cycled through, you know, hundreds of receivers throughout his career. I, I don't worry about that too much.
16:00
But even if the offense gets off to a semi-slow start, yeah, you're, you're probably gonna need to put up close to 30 if you're gonna go beat the Niners on the road.
16:07
But, I mean, that defense can hold the Titans and the Patriots to, like, 20 combined points, right? I wouldn't worry too much about those early season games.
16:13
You could say the same thing about the Broncos and the Vikings games. And yeah, you get the Bills in week six, but even after that, y- you get a, a nice two-game run at Pittsburgh, and then you get the Patriots again.
16:23
I mean, there's a, a really nice window here for the Jets to get off to a nice start. And, you know, I think the offensive line i- is still a concern. That's something we, we have to be worried about.
16:31
They did address it. They got Olu Fashanu in the first round. Uh, they, they went out and, and shopped and brought in some veterans in free agency as well.
16:38
I mean, they're at least making the right moves to attempt to address that. We'll see how effective that ends up being.
16:43
And, you know, the, the other kinda sneaky thing that makes me like the Jets is this is a team that is 100% all in. That's what you sign up for when you bring in Aaron Rodgers.
16:50
And Aaron Rodgers, as we've already seen, has influence on this roster. The wide receiver corps is thin, right?
16:56
Beyond Garrett Wilson, you're, you're asking a lot of Mike Williams to, to do something he's almost never done, which is stay healthy for a full season. They could be a Davante Adams team. I, I think that- Yeah...
17:04
is still out there. I think that is a real possibility that the New York Jets add somebody like Davante Adams midway through the season.
17:10
And obviously, if they bring him in in, say, week six or week seven, we're feeling a lot better about this team. Yeah. Garrett Wilson, I love. Mike Williams, I'm, uh, unsure about. Uh, Xavier Gibson- Yeah...
17:20
and Malachi Corley, the rookie from, uh, Western Kentucky, who I, who I was told looks pretty good in camp, obviously very unproven.
17:27
And again, this is a team last year that had arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league, still won seven games. And how about this? Second highest- Right...
17:33
percentage of snaps facing top 10 quarterbacks last year. So not only- Yep...
17:37
did they have the worst quarterback situation, they faced one of the most difficult gauntlets of opposing quarterbacks go- Both of those things should regress back to the mean in both directions this year.
17:49
I think 10 wins is the f- if Rodgers is healthy, 10 wins feels like the floor. I feel like 10 wins is a very healthy floor- Mm-hmm... for a team that has the talent and the expectations.
17:59
The ceiling, to me, is significantly higher. I think they have the highest ceiling of any team in the division, and I know the Dolphins have a high ceiling too. Mm.
18:07
But I just feel like if this Jets team, maybe it's my bias speaking, if this Jets team brings it all together, they are more of a polished Super Bowl contender- Mm... 'cause of the defense than the Dolphins are. Right.
18:19
And the Bills obviously have a, a little bit more upside at quarterback- Yeah... but, um, I have questions about their defense. Like, you could make the case that the Jets are the most balanced.
18:26
Is that fair to say, the Jets the most balanced team- Yeah... in this division? Yeah.
18:31
I, I think if you assume the positive side of the, the Aaron Rodgers debate and you d- and you think he's gonna stay healthy, then yeah, I, I think there's no question they're the most balanced team in this division.
18:40
I think you could argue that maybe Miami has, like, slightly higher regular season upside, but I don't trust the Dolphins in a playoff setting. The later the year goes, the worse that team is. Yes. Y- you need a defense.
18:49
You need a borderline elite defense if we're talking about a Super Bowl contender, and the Jets absolutely have that, right? I mean, they were third in defensive EPA last season.
18:56
I think there's room for some progression in terms of turnovers. This was not necessarily a high-turnover defense a year ago. And you think, I mean, you, you probably watch more Jets football than anybody.
19:05
I mean, for this defense to rank where it did [laughs] and be put in the positions that it was- Incredible... week in and week out, over and over and over, just being asked to single-handedly win these games.
19:14
You know, offense is going three and out seven drives in a row. The defense is spending 70% of the game on the field.
19:19
I, I think just having competency at quarterback, obviously it's going to, to, to boost this offense tremendously, but I think it's gonna do wonders for this defense as well.
19:27
The game against Houston obviously comes to mind, where they shut down C.J. Stroud. They held the Chiefs to 23 points in a very- Yep... tight game early in the season at MetLife.
19:36
They held the Eagles to 14 points in a win at MetLife a little bit later in the season.
19:41
Um, I, I think the Jets, again, the help of Aaron Rodgers obviously being the number one thing here, um, I, I do think the Jets are going to win the division this year, and I think that last undefeated team bet makes a ton of sense.
19:53
Nick Whelan, um, we really appreciate the time, pal. Good luck this year. Now, when's the next time you're in Vegas? I'll be in Vegas in less than three weeks, guys, coming out for the big, uh, contest weekend.
20:04
The, the football panel down at Stadium Swim. We'll be out there doing live radio, live podcasts, and, uh, I'm sure we'll hop on with you guys as well. Looking forward to it. Absolutely. Senior analyst at RotoWire.
20:14
Of course, follow him on X, @Whelan, uh, the L is a 1. Good luck with your travels and, uh, good luck on the golf course too when you come out here. All right. Thanks, man. We'll see you soon. Good stuff.
20:24
Nick Whelan, there he goes, uh, from RotoWire. Of course, also does great work for SiriusXM. Yeah, I, I think if I had to stack it this year, I think the Jets are my number one power-rated team.
20:32
And I know the power ratings officially might not agree with that, but I put Jets one, Bills two, Dolphins three, and I have the Dolphins missing the playoffs. What is your excitement level for this team? Sky high.
20:43
Is, is this the best since it's been since, like, what, Brett Favre leave- It was as high as it was last year until they stuck a dagger in my heart within the first 10 minutes of the game.
20:52
Here's the difference this year. [laughs] It's like a, it's like a due theory. [laughs] What are the odds that Aaron Rodgers gets hurt in the first game again? Like, we just... Th- Like, that just happened.
21:04
Like- Or the, or the more important question, who's the backup for the Jets? It's significantly better. It's Tarod Taylor. There you go.
21:09
Significantly better backup scenario this year than last year, and I think that's why the floor is significantly higher. 'Cause even if Rodgers gets hurt- Mm... I believe Tarod Taylor is a big upgrade from Mr.
21:24
Zach Wilson. Definitely a big upgrade over Tim Boyle. Uh, appreciate Nick Whelan's time. Uh, appreciate all of our guests, everyone in the back as well. Um, great stuff. Wyatt, we'll catch you tomorrow.
21:33
Uh, this is a Numbers Game on VSiN.
21:34
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
21:52
All right, here we go. College Football Betting Guide is out right now. Do not wait. Go check it out. Um, we've got all kinds of power ratings, picks, previews, predictions.
22:01
Uh, Pro, as in become a VSiN Pro subscriber, get all access to all the betting tools, including that beautiful betting guide, College Football Guide, out now. And our previously released NFL guide also is out.
22:12
Only way for you to get the guides and everything we have to offer, become a VSiN Pro subscriber. You can do exactly that at vsin.com/subscribe. Jared Smith, Wyatt Tomchek here with you on a Thursday.
22:24
It is a Numbers Game. All right, let's transition to a story that I think is significantly more impactful than Tristan Wirfs. I'm happy for Tristan Wirfs. Good day for the big fellas. The O lineman gets paid.
22:37
But we are now starting to get news and releases of rule changes in the NFL. All the rage, of course, is the kickoff rule. That will be very impactful. We've known about that for a long time.
22:52
Well, overnight, um, I saw this story over at Pro Football Talk, and it caught my eye because I was reading an Athletic article by Ted Nguyen, who does a great job, uh, analyzing football for us here on the network.
23:02
I talked to him on VSiN last week.
23:04
So last week I read an article that Ted wrote on The Athletic talking about cheat motion, and he did an article, and basically what it said was he went around and asked coaches what were the defensive...
23:17
Or he asked defensive coaches what were the offensive gimmicks that were run last year that is, that are keeping them up at night trying to defend, trying to counter against.
23:30
If you recall a few years ago when Mahomes made his splash, teams adjusted by starting playing a lot of two deep, umbrella coverage. Keep everything in front. Don't let Tyreek Hill run behind you.
23:40
Well, eventually that, you know, got sniffed out. Kansas City started running the ball a little bit more and, and, you know, things adjust, things change.
23:47
Last year there was a nuance in the motion rules- That two teams took advantage of, the Dolphins and the 49ers.
23:58
Really, Kyle Shanahan is the one who kind of coined this phrase during a press conference last October, where he called it cheat motion. And basically what cheat motion is, if you're...
24:09
Remember the CFL rules, if you're familiar with them. In the CFL, you can get a running start towards the line of scrimmage before the snap, and it's legal. Can't do that in the NFL.
24:19
Can't moving, can't be moving towards the line of scrimmage. But there's no rule against lateral movement at the snap.
24:25
So what the NFL geniuses, Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan, started doing is they started putting their fastest player, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, in motion
24:36
horizontally at the snap so that when the ball was snapped, they weren't moving towards the line of scrimmage.
24:43
They were moving laterally, but they were already at full speed, which gave them a significant advantage to do whatever they wanted to do after the snap.
24:52
If you're at full speed and the defenses are flat-footed, even if you're moving laterally, the offensive player, who already has a massive advantage, has a bigger advantage.
25:02
Well, the [laughs] NFL rule book said, "No, not so fast." This year, cheat motion is now officially cheating. They have put a rule in, and I'll read you the rule. It's kind of one of those legal mumbo jumbo things.
25:14
And basically what it is, rule seven, article four, section two: "Any eligible backfield player who changes his stance does not have to come to a complete stop prior to the snap as long as," here's the qualifier, "as long as his actions are not abrupt" [sighs]
25:31
"or forward." Forward we've already hashed out is not something that the Niners or Dolphins are doing. Abrupt, well, Wyatt, that's where the letter of the law becomes open for interpretation.
25:44
I think this is a valiant effort by NFL owners, most likely, uh, some teams that faced the Dolphins and Niners [laughs] last year and said, "How are we gonna stop these guys?" I just don't know how you officiate that.
25:57
It's gonna be a very interesting officiating process this year. It's like the, uh, the, they had the ban on the hip drop, uh, tackle. Yes. It's like... [laughs] But that's a little different- Yeah...
26:07
because that's injury. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I- This is procedure. Yeah, but I think- And it's very open for interpretation. Mm-hmm. Just like the hip drop is. Yeah. But this is just such a different animal. The, yeah.
26:16
Uh, that's where I think where refs are gonna just have a little bit of trouble figuring out what is the rule and what, you know, what, what is a clean play and what is, nope, this is a penalty.
26:26
We, you know, we've got to take it back. So I think you're gonna see a few moments early in the we- i- early in, in- Yes... in the weeks where- How it's officiated- Yeah... in preseason's gonna be interesting. Yeah.
26:35
That's why it's the key preseasons is to iron, not only iron out stuff for the players, but also- Yes... iron out stuff for the officials. And I will be paying very close attention.
26:44
I'm basically gonna be doing a Twitter search every night, 'cause I'm not gonna watch every snap of every game.
26:49
So I'm not gonna be able to identify when the cheat motion is being used, although I will pay extra attention to the Dolphins and the Niners. But here's the but: Now that this rule is being adjudicated differently,
27:04
will the Niners and Dolphins adjust their scheme? Because everything in the NFL is a copycat league.
27:11
Someone tries something, it gets put on tape, other people try it, then the defenses adjust, and then it's not effective anymore. Think about the wildcat. Remember how pop- Oh, yes.
27:20
Like, again, this is the NFL just like life. There were certain fads in certain eras, right? Right. When I was a kid in the '90s, I used to play Pokemon. [laughs] Now
27:32
Game Boy doesn't exist anymore, and if it does, you're basically- Well, you still play, you can still, still play Pokemon on the phone... play Pokemon Go. Yeah. Yeah. Come on. Pokemon Go.
27:39
I was gonna say Po- Different Pokemon. [laughs] But you get my point. Yeah, it's like- I had a Tamagotchi too. Yeah. [laughs] Remember, remember how big the read options were? Exactly.
27:46
Uh, obviously as a Packer fan, I'm still have nightmares about Colin Kaepernick. I think he's still running. Uh, uh, [laughs] in that NFC divisional game where he had, like, over 200 yards rushing.
27:55
That was a big pain for... Like, defenses didn't know how to stop it. Now they kinda really understand it. You don't really see it as much. It's almost more like a gadget play. Yeah.
28:04
I, I think the cheat motion now, I am fascinated to see how the Niners and Dolphins handle this. Let's be honest. This a, it's a very effective play. It's a very effective strategy to put the fastest player on the planet
28:18
at full speed before the snap. I mean, y- you can't... And I know he's moving laterally, but once he turns at the snap, he's already running full speed. It, it is an incredible advantage for the offensive player.
28:33
That's why it's called ch- that... Like, the Niners told on themselves. Kyle Shanahan told on himself. He called it cheating. He literally called it cheating. Of course, they were gonna try to iron out this wrinkle.
28:45
The question is how it's officiated. Raise your hand if you've watched a game in the NFL since you've been born that you've been like, "That's not fair. The officials got it wrong."
28:55
Everyone should have their hand raised. It's, it, it's inevitable that they're gonna get this wrong trying to get it out of the game, and it's gonna still be... It's still gonna happen.
29:06
It's just how they hide it and how they mask it is gonna be the key. I bet Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan are in a bunker somewhere right now trying to figure out how to counter this rule.
29:17
Because I think the biggest advantage you can have for any offensive skill player is to have them running faster than the defensive player before the snap. To me, that is cheating.
29:27
And also, you know, the defensive player can't... The, the rules have limited him from pressing, making contact beyond five yards, so it's really difficult.
29:36
And like, if you're trying to, you know, jam up Deebo Samuel or Tyreek Hill and you miss, like, oh, goodbye. It's a, that's a touchdown. So it's so tough for, for the defender.
29:45
So I guess in one aspect, I'm kinda happy that NFL's making rules, Jared, that is helping out the defender. It feels like- This is a defensive rule. Yeah.
29:53
It feels like every rule is going against the, the defender and making it tough for them to play, so I'm glad that they finally switched it on that end. But again- How upset are you going to be?
30:03
Let's say you have a Tyreek Hill first touchdown prop. First play of the game, cheat motion, does a little dance, goes up the sidelines, wide open, touchdown. Defender's flat-footed, no chance to guard him.
30:18
You just co- Penalty, illegal cheat motion on Tyreek Hill. People are gonna go nuts. It's gonna be the... It's going to be wi- It will take points off the board.
30:29
This is going to be one of those illegal procedure type penalties that's gonna drive every fantasy football gambler nuts all year,
30:39
but- Well, you know, if, if you have any Philadelphia Eagle player and they get stuffed at the one, you, you, you know how to cope with it. I, I'm, I'm glad... I, I'm with you.
30:48
I, I do think that we need more rules for the defenses. This one, I don't know how impactful it is going to be.
30:55
I do not know how well they are going to, uh, grade it and, and, you know, adjudicate it and, and, and get it cleaned up. But this will be a story this year. Um, if, if they, if, if they, uh,
31:10
look hard at this and really try to get it out of the game, there's gonna be a lot of offensive players that are gonna be very upset, very upset. And Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan I'm sure did not enjoy.
31:21
Of all the positive things happening for offenses, when they probably read this this morning, um, they didn't like it. I mean, literally, Kyle Shanahan last year, some...
31:30
This is a quote from the article, "Some call it speed motion. I call it cheat motion because it's cheating." [laughs] Like, he told on himself. Yeah.
31:38
But I like what you said, Jared, is that, you know, the good coaches, they'll complain about, uh, "What are we gonna do? You took away an, an, an advantage for us."
31:46
But I think great coaches like Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel, great offensive minds, they're gonna find a way to dis- skirt the rules a little bit here or find another, you know, uh,
31:55
little open spot where, where they can, uh, have the advantage. If you ain't cheating, you ain't trying. Yeah. As a Nascar- I, I don't know who said that... as a NASCAR fan, man, you see it a lot.
32:03
I don't know who said that. I have no idea who said that. Isn't that Ricky Bobby? Whatever. No, that's- No, that's-... if you ain't first, you're last. That's right. Um, if you ain't cheating, you ain't trying.
32:13
Well, cheat motion's no longer. Um, we're cheating next 'cause we got Zachary Cohen, senior editor of VSiN, on. We're gonna talk, uh, a lot of college football. The guide is out today. Go check it out.
32:23
Zach Cohen's up next to talk about it here on VSiN.
32:25
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
32:50
Jared is in for Gil. Wyatt is in for Kelly. Um, in for himself is Zachary Cohen, senior editor of VSiN. Um, we're gonna go out to the progressive guest line right now and check in with Zachary.
33:00
Of course, you can follow him on X @bettingonX. Very intuitive, uh, social media handle there. We appreciate Zach's time this morning. Zach, College Football Guide out today. Very exciting stuff.
33:10
Um, you inspired me for one of my selections in the guide because I was reading through some of the picks before I made my picks, and at the top of the card it said, "Alabama's gonna win the College Football Playoff."
33:20
And I was like, "Whoa," 'cause you can still get them at plus money just to make the College Football Playoff. But you're taking it a step further, year one of Kalen DeBoer. Explain yourself, sir.
33:30
Yeah, I mean, I just really believe in DeBoer. I think he's a top five coach in the country. I think obviously there's big shoes to fill with Nick Saban leaving.
33:37
You're losing the greatest coach in college football history, but you're bringing in a guy that just got to the playoff, made it to the final last year with a team that I believe had less talent than this Alabama team does.
33:46
I think that Alabama has a really, really good offensive line this season. Bring back Jalen Milroe, one of, you know, the probably the best dual-threat quarterback in all of college football.
33:54
I think the people are really worried about the wide receiver group, but that's not a group that I tend to worry about with teams like this where, you know, you're loaded with five-star talent.
34:02
You have some returners back from last year. Maybe not the best ones, but you do have guys that contributed to last year's team.
34:07
Uh, some younger players are going to be able to step up and, you know, fill in some of those gaps. And defensively, like, there's six starters returning from the, that side of the ball, really talented players.
34:16
Uh, like we sa- like I just said, you know, five-star talent filling in the gaps there. And I really like Kaan Wongak, the former South Alabama head coach who's coming in as the defensive coordinator.
34:25
I think he's going to make an imprint right away on this team. And I just kinda think that you get Georgia at home, that makes the schedule a lot better.
34:31
I think the winner of that Georgia game in Tuscaloosa will end up winning the SEC.
34:35
Yeah, and again, from a, from a plus money perspective to make the playoff, the reason why it made a ton of sense to me, Zachary, and you tell me if you agree with me or not, their toughest game is in September.
34:46
Now, I, I know at Oklahoma, at LSU, those are tough games. Obviously at Tennessee, those are tough games.
34:50
But their toughest game, the only game that they're probably gonna be a dog in, i- if at all, I mean, I guess maybe they could be a dog at Tennessee depending on how the first six weeks of the season go.
35:00
But I think LSU's gonna take a step back this year. Obviously they lost a ton. And, and Oklahoma, I'm, I'm not very high on them even though that game is on the road. Their, their, their toughest game is in September.
35:07
Say they lose that game, you have seven games after that to, you know, convince the committee that you're worthy of a playoff spot, and I always think losing early is beneficial to making the playoff, right?
35:19
Get that loss out of the way in September, and then the recency bias for the committee will carry you through 'cause you're winning all your games down the stretch. It makes a ton of sense to me.
35:27
When I saw plus, a plus sign next to their playoff number, I was like, "I have got to bet this," because you got so much speed there, or excuse me, so much runway at the end of the season to make up for an early loss against Georgia.
35:39
No, 100%. I mean, you're looking at games, it's verse Georgia, it's at LSU, it's at Tennessee. Like, those are the games that they can lose. I think they're gonna go two and one in those games.
35:48
I, I, I think they're gonna win that Georgia game, but you're right. If they do lose that one, they have time to make up for it.
35:53
They just have to win a couple of tough road games, and I do think that they would have an edge against both Tennessee and LSU because Tennessee, I think, has, you know, a really depleted secondary.
36:01
LSU still has a lot to prove on that, you know, the defensive side of the ball. I do think that they're gonna get better there, but like you said, there's a lot going out with Jayden Daniels leaving.
36:09
That offense is gonna be worse.
36:11
So I just think that Alabama's a better football team than both of them, and I think that DeBoer is a proven coach at this point that's going to be able to go out and get some big, uh, road wins. Yeah, that's the key.
36:19
Like, don't get me wrong, Nick Saban is, is Nick Saban. I'm not... This isn't... I, I always love when we compliment someone else, it, it always gets assumed that we're, that we're, you know-[laughs]
36:30
making fun of or, or putting down the other person in this equation.
36:33
But I, I love Nick Saban, but Kalen DeBoer, over the last decade, has proven that he is one of the best coaches, one of the brightest minds in this sport. And now he gets the resources and the talent to go along with it.
36:47
Not to say that there wasn't talent at Washington, but you cannot compare the talent at Washington to Alabama. Like, it's almost like you, you- a kid in a candy store.
36:55
Like, he has got to be licking his chops, and we don't know 'cause we haven't seen it, and that's why I think you're getting a fair number on 'Bama this year.
37:01
It's just the unknown of Kalen DeBoer and that, you know, upheaval that I think is giving you a fair price on the Tide this year. Yeah, definitely.
37:10
I think the people need to see it to believe it, but I do think that he's shown that he's going to be able to find a lot of success with this talented of a roster.
37:17
And I also, you know, that, you know, the unknown of DeBoer, I think, is gonna help them against Georgia. Yes. It's gonna be a completely different look for Kirby Smart to plan against just a more wide open offense.
37:27
So I think that Milroe's gonna have a huge year. Yeah, that, that, that's such a great point.
37:31
You know, other teams, right, like we've been viewing Alabama in a certain way, but other teams have also had, you know, the same coaching staff for the most part, um, especially at the top, to prepare for.
37:43
And I know that the offensive coordinators have kind of been shuffled in and out, but, but Kalen DeBoer I think is brighter than all of them. And I, I agree with you.
37:50
I think Jalen Milroe, and pretty much the entire offensive line, um, at, at least is back minus Latham. So, um, great up front. The receivers, eh, I, I, that leaves a little something to be desired there.
38:00
Running back room's okay, but the receiving group needs to take a step forward. Um, all right, uh, Utah in the Big 12 this year. I know, that sounds crazy, but they are in the Big 12 this year.
38:09
There's a lot of changes across college football this year. That's why you got to read the guide. But you think the Utes are very live, uh, to win the conference in their debut season.
38:18
Yeah, it almost feels like a sucker pick at this point 'cause everybody has it, but I liked getting plus money odds on Utah to win the Big 12.
38:23
I just think that last year's Pac-12 season for them was a nightmare because of injuries.
38:27
I, I think that Cam Rising and Brent Keyfee both being out, you know, for, since the start of the year just doomed them from the jump.
38:33
Like, I liked that team a lot to, you know, make the college football playoff a year ago. I think I was a year early. Now you're getting Rising back at, you know, what he should be 100% healthy.
38:41
Had a full year to recover, more than a year to recover. Uh, he's one of the QBs that I really, [laughs] really like. I just think he's a gamer, a guy that can pick up first downs with his legs.
38:49
You know, seems to make the right throw every time he's out there.
38:52
Uh, the offense I'm expecting to be a lot better this season, and kind of, you know, almost match the production of the defense, which was really good a year ago.
39:00
I think that Whittingham is probably going to be the best coach in the Big 12 immediately. I, I just think, like, this is a group that should be energized from playing against worse competition.
39:08
Uh, that game, uh, in September, like it's, it's another September game we're talking about. That road game against Oklahoma State, that's one that could really go either way.
39:15
But I would be pretty surprised if Utah loses to anybody else. Yeah, that, that schedule, I mean, we don't really know how the acclimation process to a new conference will go.
39:26
I, every time I talk to, you know, the people that I know inside the college football world, they all say the travel in these scenarios is gonna be a little bit more cumbersome than we expect. It's not easy to move.
39:39
I, when I used to work at FAU, it's a very small operation. Like it, it takes a long time to get to these places.
39:43
You got to drive a truck across the country if you're playing a game, uh, somewhere else 'cause it's the equipment.
39:48
So the travel will be an adjustment, but I don't think that'll impact the players as much as it will the staff and the coaches.
39:54
I think the coaches, and the scouting, and getting to a new league, I think that's gonna be the biggest adjustment for Utah. But like you said, Kyle Whittingham is about as elite as it comes.
40:02
All right, and back, let's go back to the SEC. Um, I haven't done much re- much research on Texas A&M this year.
40:08
Um, you not only like them to go over their standard win total, but the alternate win total also catching your eye. So please, uh, fill me in on the Aggies here. I just really love Mike Elko.
40:17
He was a really successful defensive coordinator at Texas A&M. Went to Duke, which is a team that had very little talent, turned them into a winning program.
40:24
Now gets to come back and coach, you know, Jimbo Fisher's team. Fisher did a really good job of bringing in high-level talent to College Station. Uh, he was not a great game day coach. Elko definitely is.
40:34
I think that the defense, which is loaded with talent at every level, is going to be one of the best in the SEC right away, and I like what he did with the offense.
40:41
I thought hiring, uh, Colin Klein from Kansas State's going to help him out a lot. I think that Klein did really well with less talented offenses in Manhattan. Always got a lot out of less talent.
40:51
Uh, they were a really good red zone team a year ago, and he's g- getting a quarterback in Connor Wegman that I think's gonna be, you know, a top five pick someday in the NFL draft. I think he's a really talented kid.
41:00
Uh, last year, his season ended with a broken foot. Uh, it sounds like he's going to be healthy here. Uh, they have a good backfield, a good offensive line. The, it's another team with, you know, questions at receiver.
41:10
But I just think it's a really strong team that has great coaching and, and a really manageable schedule, because they play some really tough teams, but they're going to do it at home.
41:19
Uh, even starting with that game against Notre Dame in August. Like, all of their toughest games this season will be played at College Station.
41:25
So, you know, there are four games on that schedule, uh, that I think are going to be really tough for them, but it wouldn't shock me if they win two or three with them playing at home.
41:32
Yeah, that game in week one is a pick 'em, um, currently at DraftKings between A&M and Notre Dame. A- and frankly, I, I, Zach, I think that's kind of the, you know, that, that's kind of the alt win total right there.
41:44
If you guy- if, uh, the Aggies can get that game, um, yeah, I think 10 wins is very much attainable for them. Um, that'll be a really fun one. Um, I think it's a, a true... Is that a true road?
41:55
I don't know if that's a neutral site or not. Um- It- Go ahead... it's in Tex- it's at Texas A&M. It's at Texas A&M. Yeah, I mean, that's- Yep... that, that's a huge advantage then for the Aggies. How about Notre Dame?
42:04
You don't see Notre Dame going a true road game in the SEC week one very often. Um, that is gonna be a really fun one, uh, down there in College Station.
42:12
Uh, Zachary, anything else that we should be aware of as the College Football Betting Guide out today, and you and the team did a great job, sir.
42:21
I mean, just in the SEC, I'll throw one out there that I think is going kind of against public opinion, as I like the under on Missouri. Uh, they were a team- Oh, wow...
42:27
that, uh, you know, really exceeded expectations last year. I think a lot of people like the schedule this year.
42:32
But, you know, they lost one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation in Blake Baker, who went to LSU for some big money to try and fix that defense.
42:39
They also lost more than half of their starters on the defensive side of the ball. So that's a team that I think can disappoint a little bit this season. The offense should be good.
42:47
I mean, they'll probably win eight games at least, but I don't see them getting to 10. You know, I don't think, I don't think they're gonna get to nine either.
42:53
Uh, just with the guide, I will say, like, you know, I read all of, all of the competition. You know, I, I read Phil Steele and everyone. I think everybody does a great job.
43:01
We have a really good mix of giving you the, uh, the X's and O's of football, but at the same time, you're getting like 50 plus best bets, all of Steve Makinen's systems, all of the trends.
43:10
Like, this is a really, really [laughs] good product for better, you- betters. You're getting a lot, uh, very early in the year. I think it's going to help a lot of you with your handicap.
43:18
Yeah, it, it's, it's on the list. Again, it's a long list of things I have to read before the season starts. But it is absolutely on the list, and Zachary Cohen, a big reason for it. Great stuff as always, my friend.
43:29
Senior editor at VSiN, appreciate the time. Thanks, guys. All right, we'll talk a little more college football on the other side. Maybe Live's gonna get involved, talk a little Big Ten. What do you think? [upbeat music]
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