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Aug 20, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 20, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 20, 2024
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44:34
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story. They always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. I could go on, but we'll leave it there. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
It's Kelly Biddle in to my right. Yo. To your left. How you doing, man? Doing great. Good? Doing swell. Drew Dincic on the show momentarily, gonna talk NFL and a little tennis with him.
0:32
Uh, Drew and I, uh, Wyatt Tomchek doesn't even know this, so I have to, uh, pass this on, uh, emergency US Open podcast on Thursday. Woo, woo, woo. Is the d- the- Heads up, Wyatt.
0:41
[laughs] The, uh, the, the draw is coming out Thursday morning, uh, so we get to do a post-draw Thursday podcast on the US Open, so looking forward to that.
0:49
But he'll be here momentarily, talk, uh, primarily football with us. Paul Spohrer on baseball a little later. Uh, Kelly and I are going full out sports talk radio later on the show, and we couldn't be more excited.
0:59
You know what I'm talking about here, Kelly? Oh, I do. NFL quarterback power rankings. That's right, we're not too highbrow to stoop to this level.
1:07
Top 10 quarterbacks, National Football League, we wanna spend one segment of our lives living in the shoes of these sports talk people.
1:15
I mean, what, what's, like, the big, like, what, what would be a big difference though of us talking, you know, like you can compare these to MVP odds [laughs] with usually the guys that are near the top anyways?
1:24
That's correct, but it's also in just, you know, in an off-season where it's an, an interminable off-season, and this one feels like- Mm... you know, July lasted 60 days. It, it is a way of just sort of calibrating.
1:36
And the, the beauty of it is always I will let the hate wash over me as, as you will as well because inevitably- Oh, there's gonna be some that people hate, yeah... everyone's gonna be p- pissed about this. Right.
1:46
I would... You, should I drop the early, the early stats that I, that I texted you? What early stats? Of just so- some of the trends from the two of ours. Oh, okay. Sure.
1:55
So there are, Gil and I do have the same top six quarterbacks listed in different orders though. Okay. Oh, all right. And then after that, there are- Oh...
2:05
there are six quarterbacks that appear on one of our lists- [laughs]... and not the others. [laughs] So it's mayhem after that. Yeah, and I believe there's multiple Super Bowl winners that are left off there.
2:13
But the, but the funny part about it is people will go nuts that both you and I, but I'll just, I'll use mine, people go nuts that, that I will have left off certain quarterbacks in the top 10, as inevitably it is for everybody, and the f- the comedy of it is, oh, you're really that upset that I have him 11 or 12 or 13?
2:29
Right, yeah. Right, like, so we'll get into it on, and we'll defend our position. That's the thing. That, that- We'll defend our position...
2:34
that was the best part though when you texted me yesterday, you're like, "How many are we doing?" I'm like, "Just do 10 'cause it's funnier when we see who, who we left off." [laughs] My text was, "Are we doing all 32?"
2:42
That would've been funny, see what 32 was. Um, okay, uh, we will get to the, all that, and let me start with the bad.
2:49
Yesterday, after what was nothing but win- winning tennis bets since the beginning of the Olympics, both clay, then and hardcourt, yesterday, the old market correction. Oh, boy.
3:01
If you bet tennis 350 days a year, this will happen. A big offer. And, uh, Katie Volynets again, over 40 cents of CLV, had a match point. You know how this goes.
3:12
There are just days where you know once the first one loses or the second one loses, you're like, "Oh, I get it. Anything that can happen here will, will go wrong." So we lost them all yesterday.
3:22
Uh, 0 and 4 here on the show, 0 and 5 for subscribers. It was a bad day, just bad all around. Um, we lost on the previous day on Badosa when she was 53 cents CLV.
3:32
What, who was it, Sharapan that put, has those pictures of the CLV trash cans around Vegas? The trash cans that have CLV stenciled on them? Oh, no, I haven't caught that. That's great. It's C Las Vegas.
3:41
I don't know what the C stands for, but they're all over town anyway. [laughs] That's awesome. Those are all those tickets go. Um, so that was bad.
3:46
Um, and maybe, maybe, uh, um, maybe it serves me right for playing Winston-Salem and Cleveland right before the US Open, but, you know, that's how the cookie crumbled. I only have one today. I'm on Viktorija Golubic.
3:57
She is a, uh, Swiss player. She's plus 183 again. Put these out last night, VSiN.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport, it is in there.
4:07
That happens to be my only one going up against number one seed in this tournament in Cleveland. Uh, tennis in the land is what they call it.
4:14
Going up against Beatriz Haddad Maia, a Brazilian who is not playing her best tennis this year. I don't think it should be anywhere near the plus 180 that you can still get it at. So that's the only, uh, tennis play.
4:23
It's one of these two, uh, Kelly, where he's like, you know, when you, uh, anticipate a co- uh, a meeting and a collection, and you're expecting a pile, and then you have a day like that, that's a haircut, and you're just, you just get so angry about it.
4:33
Oh, yeah. It's brutal, brutal, brutal, brutal day. All right, baseball. Did a podcast with Mark Borchardt yesterday. Um, s- uh, Q3, quarter three derivative show, Major League Baseball.
4:45
We deep dive on first five inning stuff, on first inning stuff. I encourage you to go listen to that after the show at Beating the Book. Great stuff as always. Mark is outstanding.
4:52
I, I will say, hey, uh, you guys are both awesome talking baseball. I, I, you know, always, I love when you do those because it's the... Like, I, I said this early in the year, but applies even now. Yes.
5:02
It's, it's if you've missed anything too, it's such a great catch-up vehicle.
5:06
It's a catch-up vehicle, which it's not about also the narrative, it's about what is predictive here moving forward, and he has historical umpire numbers.
5:12
So again, like, you know, you may have a total position on a, on a baseball game, but if a certain umpire's back there, it should probably take you off if that umpire is historically and matching with this year's sort of performance behind home plate calling balls and strikes.
5:24
So it's great. Um, but it occurred to me as I was doing that podcast, and he had an appearance on the show yesterday, and we talked baseball with others, um, that maybe we should get into what is the single best bet?
5:35
What, what do I believe is the single best bet that exists right now this morning for the rest of the season? Again, we're just under a quarter of the season left, so 30-some games for everybody. Um,
5:46
this is the, these are the, these are the best records in baseball right now. Jeff Passan highlighted this the other day. We touched on it. These are 10, these are the top 10 teams in baseball.
5:56
There happen to be five in the AL. There happen to be five in the NL. They are separated by four games. In the standings, if you would put them all in the same standings, right?
6:05
The Phillies have the best, seventy-three and fifty-one, and then it is just like stair steps down, half steps all the way down to the D-backs at seventy and fifty-six. A total of four games separate those ten teams.
6:19
So if we go to the best record in baseball, I mentioned that I bet the Diamondbacks at forty to one the other day.
6:26
The second column here, for those watching, those are the, those are the current odds to have the best record in baseball. Those are not World Series odds as we've listed. Those are the best record in baseball odds.
6:36
You can get the Diamondbacks much longer than I got them. They're at seventy-five to one, not, not forty to one.
6:41
But as you look up and down that, you see that the Dodgers are the short shot to have the best record, plus one sixty. The Yankees are next, plus two fifty-five.
6:48
And that correlates with the remaining strength of schedule. What you see on the far right is the aggregate win percentage of their remaining opponents. So the lower, the easier, in other words.
6:59
And the Dodgers do have, of these ten teams, the easiest remaining schedule, aggregate, uh, win percentage of remaining opponents, four ninety-one. The Yankees, second easiest, four ninety-three.
7:08
By the way, the Royals of these ten teams have the hardest remaining schedule. Five thirty is the aggregate win percentage of their remaining opponents collectively.
7:18
So, um, is there a bet here beyond like what I said the other day where I'm backing the Diamondbacks? I've got the Diamondbacks not only for this, I've got them for number one seed.
7:27
I've got them to face the Royals at four hundred to one in the World Series.
7:30
And the truth is, because of the strength of schedule and because of the odds, yeah, I mean, could I say to you, "Hey, I think the Diamondbacks at seventy-five to one is still a great bet"? Sure.
7:40
Um, could I say, you know, could I-- could you make a case for the Padres, by the way, at thirty-five to one, who are only three games behind the Phillies for the best record, only two in the win column, if you will, at thirty-five to one with a remaining strength of schedule of four ninety-nine?
7:55
Sure, I could. But it's not like I say it with any degree of huge conviction.
8:02
So the question is, okay, if not this market then, maybe there is something derivative or maybe there is something, you know, that is a cousin of this that there is. And so yesterday we touched upon seeding.
8:15
By the way, those numbers, those odds were courtesy of DraftKings. DraftKings also has seeding, and number one, number two, all the way down to number six seeds in both the American League and the National League.
8:26
And there, Kelly- Yep... is where I believe you find the finest bet that remains. And so you say, "Okay, well, what is that?"
8:34
Um, the first place you should look would be, you know, okay, the American League, you've got, you know, the, the-- what, what, what seeding is kind of like looks clearer than others?
8:46
Well, the Astros to be the number three seed does, but it is reflected in the price, right? They are, what, minus two eighty-five or something like that to be- Minus two eighty right now...
8:55
minus two eighty to be the number three seed. So there's no value there because-- but that's what you're looking for. You're looking for a possibility of, okay, what, what is a clear picture on a seed?
9:04
The problem with the number one seeds is there's too much of a logjam, uh, in the American League on that, right?
9:11
Orioles, Yankees, Guardians, they're all too bunched together and the prices, you know, are- Yankees minus one ten, O's plus two seventy, Guardians four to one And I don't feel like there's, there's enough value there.
9:24
Um, also based on the schedules we just talked about, the Yankees have the easiest one of the bunch. Um, the Orioles equally easy, by the way. So it's, it's really a coin flip. I don't know that I could back a bet there.
9:36
However, however, in the National League number one seed, I do believe there is a bet. And that, sir, is on a team that is only one game out of the number one seed,
9:51
and they have the third easiest schedule. Well, the fourth, 'cause there's a tie. The fourth easiest schedule remaining on that board, and that is the Milwaukee Brewers.
10:01
The Brewers to get the number one seed are plus five fifty. Plus five fifty for a team that is only one game behind the Phillies for the number one seed currently.
10:11
They have a four ninety-nine remaining strength of schedule. Again, aggregate win percentage of their, of their remaining opponents, four ninety-nine. Again, fourth easiest on the board of the ones we mentioned.
10:22
And they're still plus five fifty. That's probably the best current bet that I see. Also, by the way, for, for other seeds in the wild cards, fours and fives- Mm...
10:33
too crowded in the American League to determine who's gonna end up with a specific seed. Too crowded in the National League. So I do think that that, that that is the-- that's the play.
10:44
The- Well, I th-- it sounds like the AL ones, you, you wouldn't suggest playing at all, right? 'Cause you- No, at all. None 'Cause the two seed even applies to the one seed situation, right? No, that's what I mean.
10:51
There's- The one seed's too jumbled. Someone's gonna fall to the two seed. And it-- and, you know, to, to those who ask, "What about a six seed in the National League?" Still also two. Mm.
10:59
You know, the Braves are priced as the favorite, as they should be, even though the Mets are only a game and a half behind, Giants three and a half behind.
11:05
So to me, if you had to play one bet in either of these markets, it is the Brewers at plus five fifty, 'cause I think
11:11
for, for a team that's only one game out here and has a relatively easy schedule, I mean, could you make a case about the Padres too? You could, I suppose.
11:22
I mean, wouldn't you sprinkle that a little on the eleven to one for best regular season record? [upbeat music] Talk about with the Brewers? Yeah, yeah, if you were gonna bet that. Yeah, you could.
11:29
But again, I just r-- you know, plus five fifty not having to deal with all the teams in the American League. Right. Right Um, I kinda like it, I kinda like it a little better.
11:40
But anyway, to the question of what's the best bet I think that's on the board right at this moment, that's it. We'll talk to Drew Dincic on the NFL on the other side, including interesting kickoff rule information.
11:49
That's next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from Bar Canada, the Barrage here at Bar Canada, the D, downtown Las Vegas.
12:06
Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland, and Drew Dinsick at whale_capper courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line joins us, co-host of the Deep Dive and NBC Sports Bet The Edge podcast.
12:14
And I just want to start by saying I am such a rude human being because Drew is not only doing this show, he's, he's agreed to do the US Open podcast on the Thursday after the show.
12:25
So he's just like, he's always there for me, and then the poor guy has COVID- [laughs]... and I failed to mention that he's playing hurt here. You, uh, you are convinced you got COVID at Bet Bash, yes? Oh, yeah. Surely.
12:39
I mean, the timing wa- I mean, it could have been in the airport, who the heck knows? But it was definitely traveling to Las Vegas and back 'cause, uh, yeah, within like two days it was like, "Oh, wait a second.
12:47
What's that scratchy feeling in the back of my throat? [laughs] Oh yeah, this is familiar." Yeah, and, uh, just for the record, COVID got me. Uh, it's in trouble here. Uh, no, uh- [laughs] It, it has no hope.
12:58
Uh, but, uh, yeah, no, I, the, the, it's, uh, one of the, uh, the, one of the kind of sad truths of our time now, like- Yeah... if you traveled in the summer, like you're gonna get it 'cause- Well...
13:08
[laughs] it's, uh, yeah. It should be pointed out that Drew and COVID have a fascinating history. Uh- [laughs] When the pandemic- Yeah...
13:16
when the, when the pandemic actually happened in 2020, Sloan, MIT Sloan Sports Conference happened as it always does in, you know, end February, beginning March, so right before the world ended basically in 2020.
13:28
Everybody at that conference on the gambler side, every sports bettor, got COVID except for this dude right here, and you are convinced Drew...
13:38
'Cause we, we thought Drew was like, "Oh my God, what's, this guy must be- Yeah... this incredible human being." But why did you, why, what is your theory as to why you didn't get it?
13:45
[laughs] 'Cause I had already had it. [laughs] Before we even knew what it was called. I had just gotten over it. Yeah.
13:51
Uh, and, uh, actually kind of a funny, uh, weird, uh, weird coincidental story I guess is, uh, the last three times I've put on a black tie, I've gotten COVID. Uh, it was- Ah, it's the suit...
14:02
it was January 2020 I went to a black tie in downtown LA.
14:05
Uh, there were some people we were hanging out with, ironically some who had traveled, just gotten back from, uh, China, uh, you know, mainland China, like visiting family and stuff around, you know, Christmas, New Year's and, and they were feeling sick and I was like, "Oh man, that's a bummer."
14:20
And, and then sure enough, like that was the sickest I ever got in my life. And it was like, "Oh, COVID's not in the United States." It was very much in the United States, and I'm very sure that I had it at that time.
14:29
Yeah. And so yeah, I didn't get it at Sloan when everyone else did.
14:32
Um, but then yeah, sure, the second time I got it, same sort of the deal, like, uh, hey, celebrating COVID's over, they're having a big industry black tie thing. I show up and, uh, bang- [laughs]... get COVID number two.
14:42
That suit does it every time. And then, uh, yeah, three, three for three every time. Yeah. Well, well then you- I don't know what it is... have you spread it in Hawaii a couple times too, right?
14:48
He has spread it in Hawaii. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Taking it, taking it to Hawaii with me after I got it at a black tie in LA. That was fun. [laughs] Brutal. All right. Uh, let's do rapid fire on all this stuff.
14:57
It's not funny, but yeah. Yeah, it's not. Thank, thank you for being here despite being, uh, under the weather as they say. So, uh, or under the virus.
15:06
Um, okay, real quick now, off air we said give me the teams in the NFL that you are above market on and the ones that you are below market on. Sure, sure.
15:16
So, uh, market ratings, comparisons, just like generically how far off am I like ranking wise, uh, the, um, the... and, you know, 'cause power number wise, uh, there's some huge differences.
15:29
For me, I'm, I'm at Seattle like plus two and a half, market's at like minus one and a half. Uh, so Seattle is at the top of my list of teams that I have, uh, you know, that I'm very bullish on right now.
15:40
Um, the other one that is like relatively new, [laughs] Houston right now is ranked 11th in overall in, in terms of power rating with just under two, um, by unpredictable. I am closer to six.
15:53
I think this Houston team is very, very legit.
15:56
I am kind of, uh, at this point now stacking some Houston like superlative type of awards, uh, and, uh, kind of number one seed type of opinions right now because I, like this is kind of the perfect storm here.
16:09
I don't know what else you needed to see from them in the off season that they're going to be able to start the season hot with, uh, you know, everybody has main- you know, maintained perfect health throughout this process.
16:20
You have, uh, a quarterback and a wide receiver room that is so in sync that, uh, you know, it, it has perfect chemistry, uh, that they are gonna hit the ground running in my opinion.
16:29
And you have a defense led, you know, that, uh, anchored by, um, you know, Daniel Hunter who looks like a defensive player of the year candidate pretty obviously.
16:38
And it's, it's like this is all of a sudden this is gonna be a very good team right out of the gate, and their schedule is not especially hard to start out either.
16:47
So, uh, most of their kind of games that would spook you as far as for getting a one seed or winning a division come later in the season, like week 15, 16, 17, Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens.
16:58
Like yeah, that's, that's a, that's a tough, that's a tough stretch in a vacuum, but who the heck knows if the Dolphins or the Ravens are gonna be any good by the time we get to December.
17:06
Um, and then, you know, I think you kind of look at the, the beginning here where number one... I bet them number one, week one at, at the Colts.
17:13
I think that number should be past three, and you can still get it under three right now.
17:17
Um, and, uh, and then you go on a nice little stretch against the Bears, Vikings, Jags, where, you know, starting out 4 and 0 here considering that you've gotten all of your offense on the field and getting good reps together in the preseason feels very realistic to me.
17:30
So, um, I think C.J. Stroud and the Texans and DeMeco Ryans and, you know, Daniel Hunter, all, every- everybody that you want to see performing well and staying healthy is, is checking all of those boxes right now.
17:42
So, uh, this team is probably, in my opinion, gonna take a leap from outside the top 10 by market rating to, uh, top five. And, uh, so I... the, the two biggest differences, we've talked about Seattle.
17:53
Mike McDonald is the angle there. And then Houston I think is, is gonna be absolutely in the mix for an AFC and, uh, and, uh, excited to see what those two teams look like. And then lower than market you have?
18:05
Lower the market is Pittsburgh, who we, uh, just talked about. I think they're a bottom 16. I think they very well could have the fewest wins. Uh, and then, uh, I'm lower on Chicago.
18:15
Uh, this might be just a little bit of not buying into Shane Waldron and Caleb Williams hitting the ground and, you know, and, and, uh, and, and lighting the world on fire out of the gate.
18:25
Uh, some questions a little, a bit about, uh, that Chicago front seven besides... You know, I think their secondary is very good, but, uh, a little bit worried about how they're generating pass rush besides Montez Sweat.
18:36
A lot of questions about the health of the offensive line for Chicago.
18:39
Once they get into real game action, they could, uh, find themselves in a little bit of a tough spot here as they've had very, very unlucky health-wise on the, uh, in the trenches really this whole process.
18:48
So Chicago's low for me. And then lastly, Baltimore. Uh, I'm, uh, I'm still high on Baltimore.
18:53
They're a top 10 team for me, but the market consistently kind of, depending on who you ask, like they're s- they're squarely the third-best team right now.
19:00
I think they're the third, uh, shortest in terms of future price after KC and San Francisco.
19:05
Uh, they're clearly the, the second choice in the AFC, and that's not what I see when I look at this team and I look at this roster. I have questions about their offensive line.
19:13
I have questions about, uh, changing defensive coordinators.
19:17
Honestly, if I'm high on Mike McDonald in Seattle, then it, you know, it comes to, uh, logic that I would be low on Baltimore's defense this year as we, uh, you know, kind of reinvent the wheel a little bit.
19:27
I know it's somebody who was within his tree, so it shouldn't be lots of changes, and I know that ultimately the personnel hasn't changed that much. Roquan Smith is still amazing. Kyle Hamilton is still amazing.
19:36
But, you know, if you take a little bit of heat off your Baltimore D rating and you still have them as a top five but not a, you know, a threat for top one, and then you take some heat off of the offense with the ch- turnover at the offensive line, I'm coming in more like around a plus five for Baltimore, which would put me, uh, put them at, uh, seventh-best team, uh, in the NFL for me.
19:54
And honestly, I have, um, almost a two-point margin between KC and Baltimore, which means, uh, opening night, I got a big, uh, I got a big old bet on, uh, KC.
20:03
I think you can still get minus two and a half at, uh, uh, at around minus one ten if you shop around, and, uh, I think that closes three.
20:10
It may close, uh, three juicy if, uh, if we're being honest because I think, um, you know, KC to me again looks like they're ready to start the season hot as opposed to years past where they have played no one in the pre-season and they haven't really shown you anything.
20:22
Um, it does feel like they're gonna, you know, be a little bit more engaged in the first quarter of the season this year with how much we've seen them, you know, kind of, uh, trying to get the offense on the, the right foot to start the season.
20:33
And, uh, I think in general, people are a little, uh, little low on the skill position group, which looks to be a lot better than last year. All right. Drew on Kansas City week one.
20:42
Drew, uh, will you accept a question from a Steven Fezzik? He, uh- Yeah... he asked via text. He says, "Drew likes select overs NFL week one. I am scared blankless to play any overs right now-" [laughs] "...
20:54
after every single preseason game went under. We have to put some stock in it, but maybe not that much. What are his thoughts?" I mean, it's too late for me [laughs] to get back out of that.
21:06
Uh, I'm in pretty good shape on these though. Like, the select, the ones I picked by the way, I'm, I'm on 48 and a half for Jags Dolphins. I think that should start with a five. Uh, I'm on Giants Vikings.
21:16
I don't feel great about that one with the way that the Giants quarterback situation is unfolding. But, uh, again, too late here. Uh, I'm on over 48 for Buffalo Cardinals.
21:24
I would, uh, take that one back if I could now that we're starting to get a little bit of...
21:28
Uh, I, I still, I, I still think that's two bad defenses really, which is why that one is kind of intriguing to me with, you know, two good quarterbacks, well, one great, one good quarterback and, uh, and two bad defenses potentially.
21:39
I think over 48 is still, it's, it's fine there, but I don't love it as much. Uh, Commanders Tampa Bay one, that one is, uh, that one's solid.
21:46
I think both of these teams could get into the high 20s in that game, maybe even low 30s, uh, and that's, uh, sitting at 42. Um, that to me is, uh, not correct.
21:55
And then Titans Bears is on the board for me as well at 43 and a half, um, mostly because I think the Titans defense is overrated coming into this.
22:03
Uh, you know, both, both defenses I think are overrated coming into the season. That one should be on the north side of 44. So, um, little bit, uh, you know, I'm nervous too.
22:11
Like, I, I don't, I don't love how little you're getting out of these offenses in the preseason, but you're seeing a lot of vanilla scheme and concept.
22:18
And so once the, uh, once they start calling the good plays, hopefully it'll, it'll turn. Are you skipping week three of the preseason entirely? I haven't bet anything week three, and I don't think I will.
22:27
I don't think I will either. Yeah. Drew Dincic, everybody. Uh, feel better, Drew. And for God's sakes, I apologize for not- [laughs] Feel better... for not saying that earlier. Drew Dincic.
22:36
Uh, COVID machine is what he is. Uh, thank you, Drew. Yeah. All right. @whale_capper. Uh, we'll come back. NFL quarterback rankings and this kickoff information that's pretty interesting next.
22:51
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you missed episode one of Circus Survivor, the Quest for $9.2 million, you can watch it now at vsin.com.
23:01
Five-part docuseries taking you inside the high stakes world of the annual Circus Survivor contest.
23:05
Follow the contestants as they make all or nothing picks over the 2023 NFL season and go behind the scenes of the world's largest legal betting contest.
23:12
Several VSiN hosts make appearances along the way to offer their advice.
23:15
You can watch episodes two through five next week, Monday through Thursday at 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific on vsin.com and YouTube TV, as well as a live broadcast on X.
23:25
Go to vsin.com/survivor for details or to watch episode one. Um, we got a tweet about that. Let me read that one first as we get through the tweets. [laughs] This one is from, uh, the numbers guys.
23:37
"Watching part one of the Survivor doc yesterday, I never realized how good-looking the majority of sports gamblers are." [laughs] I'm gonna say that's sarcastic. [laughs] Uh, let's see here.
23:49
This is from- I, I don't know if it's sarcastic or did we actually pi- like- Oh. Did, did the production company purposely pick? Purposely pick. Yeah, some, uh- I took it as sarcastic. Uh, let's see. Cheap Prop Bets 21.
24:02
Oh, this is in response. I, I reposted our thing about, you know, which team above minus 150 to make the playoffs will actually miss. I had the Bills, you had the Dolphins. Um, Graham. My answer is the Bills.
24:14
Um, this is from Um, cheap prop bets 21. He said Dallas. Already made a bet for them to miss the playoffs at plus 205. Sia will be on the show tomorrow, Sia Najad. He says he's on Fading the Bills this year as well.
24:26
He'll be on the show tomorrow to discuss some NFL futures and PGA picks. He's got some sneaky teams in the AFC who he think can make a lot of noise this year, he says.
24:33
Uh, answer to that question, Dolphins, Dallas, and Baltimore. Bye bye. I'm guessing that's a separate Sia tweet [laughs] that you just read. From? From Sia Najad. Yeah, Sia Najad. That was a separate Sia Najad tweet.
24:44
No, no, Sia. Sia just twe- is literally tweeting us what he's gonna talk about- Okay, gotcha... on the show tomorrow. [laughs] Thanks, Sia. Uh, Plus_Money.
24:51
He's using Twitter as a promo for what he's gonna do on the show. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, Plus_Money says he thinks Dolphins, Dallas, Baltimore, bye bye.
24:58
Greg Jones, who, uh, was part of the Survivor chop last year, he says Packers. Love could easily regress. Talking about Jordan Love. I... Ooh, there's a couple of those I kind of want to talk about.
25:07
Uh, Circus Survivor Champion 23, "Great first episode. Favorite part was, uh, Crack and Gil talking about how difficult of a contest it really is." Yeah, that was my favorite part too.
25:16
Uh, Justafollowvescent says, "How dare anyone say Green Bay? But I know it's not shocking. Cowboys seem like the best bet up there if they were in any other division. Falcons."
25:25
Um, Michael Harrison, "I honestly feel like things are just not going to go right for the Niners. I'd take a shot at them missing." Terry Elkins got the 2020 Sports Betting Book: Think Like a Pro from Logan Fields.
25:36
He says, "Kelly gave up too quickly." Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Y- y- that, that statement could apply to a lot of my th- a lot of things in my life, yep. Uh, this is now, this getting, this gets to, oh, uh, Derby day day.
25:47
Brewers number one seed plus 950 on FanDuel. Ooh. Ooh, that's a nice price right there. Yeah, shop around. Uh, we mentioned that Steelers, uh, bet too. I saw someone tweet in. N Depriest, "I'd like the Ravens to miss."
25:59
He said Sal this morning made some great points. I assume he means Palantonio. Uh, let's see.
26:05
Manny Davison, "Are Steelers unders an auto bet this season then if they can't score two touchdowns in a game and are going to be a top five defense?" Well, I've bet them under an alternate under, Winto.
26:14
I, yeah, I don't like... But I, this one's so tough. Like, we've laid it out. We've talked about it a ton. Yeah.
26:19
I've also bet it, like, three years in a row though and burn, be bur- uh, been burnt by it every single year. So I, yeah. Yeah. Chance Copperpot. Jump on board with me though.
26:27
I'll take all the, uh, all the fellow bettors I can get. Survivor episode one was absolutely fantastic. I'm so jacked up for Survivor now, maybe more than the sushi spot. Three days till sushi, everybody.
26:36
I spent hours last night looking at schedules. I think I'm gonna use two on the Bills week one. What say you? I have not gotten to Survivor week one yet. I have not gotten there. Yeah, I haven't really either.
26:44
I d- I did make some week one bets though, uh, yesterday. What'd you bet? Um, I laid two and a half with the Falcons against the Steelers.
26:51
Um, those are, the two and a halves were drying up, so those, uh, wanted to get ahead of that. And then also, I did tag along. I, I mean, I've heard Drew, I've heard a couple people bring it up.
27:00
Uh, the, the Dolphins Jags over. Um, there was, I had 49. I know the 48 and a half's gone. 49, not the best one, but the 49s are quickly disappearing too.
27:09
Um, and it's getting closer, like Drew said, 49 and a half, um, and then the 50s. Um, and then I j- I just joined him on Chiefs two and a half too. Laid that. I was kind of looking at that already.
27:19
Um, but you know, first, first game of the year [laughs]. Yeah, Drew, Drew pushed me over the edge. Was already leaning that way, but two and a halves are kind of moving. C- couple comments on the teams. The, um,
27:30
I don't know if that point with the Packers is being discussed enough.
27:34
Like, I wanna love Jordan Love, and I think he's really good, but yeah, it's a small sample size that it feels like a lot of people are really buying into.
27:43
It is, but, uh, c- go back a year ago, I was the one saying to everybody, 'cause everybody thought Jordan Love sucked. Mm-hmm. Right? And I'm like, and w- how many times did I say nope?
27:51
When you hold a clipboard under the same- You did... system for years, you tend to actually be good when you come out of that. 'Cause we don't have that in modern day, right? Yep.
28:00
And I went through the whole thing about all the Skins quarterbacks, right? Mark Rypien, Trent Green, Stan Humphries.
28:04
All these guys that nobody thought were gonna be any good, but you sit there with a clipboard for years back then, you end up good, and that's what happened with Jordan Love. So maybe he is exactly that.
28:12
No, like, and I think he is. Yeah. But I'm just saying it's, I don't know- The band... that we know based off of what we've seen so far. We don't know. And by the way, like- The Ravens one's interesting...
28:20
much of that will be incorporated into our quarterback ranking coming up as well. Yes, it, yes, yes, it will. [laughs] The Ra- Here's the thing about the Ravens though I have to tell you.
28:26
They are solid at number three running back. I just want to tell you that. [laughs] Just wanna tell you that. Shout out to O if he makes the team. I mean, you know me.
28:34
Like, I'm not, I am not the biggest Lamar Jackson guy, but even, I'm, I'd be a little shocked if the Ravens fall that far this year. Uh, well, Drew said, he goes, "I just don't have them third best.
28:42
I have them seventh best." So let's not go crazy, right? No, yeah, but that's- And, and the thing is, do you- That's significant to me though for, for when we're talking about a team- It is...
28:50
that was that good last year. It is, but, like, people who say they're gonna miss the playoffs, it, it might happen, but I'm gonna let you guys bet that because I'm not going against that organization.
28:57
No, no, that's kind of my point. I'm not doing that either. I'm not going.
28:59
The one other interesting thing about the Fezzik question to Drew about the totals and stuff, obviously the massive unders here in the first two weeks of preseason as we documented yesterday.
29:07
Um, the NFL put in this new kickoff rule this year obviously, and the point was after all of these years of trying to legislate the kickoff out, the NFL is really skittish about points, um, you know, the point environment lessening.
29:21
Obviously, uh, you know, chicks love the long ball was the old Glavine, uh, Maddox commercials. Well, they- Chicks dig the long ball... chicks dig the long ball. What'd I say, like? Yeah, chicks dig the long...
29:30
Of course I didn't say it. Jigs, chicks dig the long ball.
29:32
So the NFL is really worried about the scoring environment coming down, and you know, they were legislating the kickoff out of it under the guise of we want player safety.
29:40
Well, they decided because of the scoring environment coming down and their fear of it going even lower with bad quarterback play and what else, you know, what, what else, uh, they could possibly give as a reason for it.
29:51
So the new rule was designed to raise the rate of return and the threat of big plays after years of increasing touchbacks.
30:00
So the average starting position through two weekends of exhibition games, Kelly, is now the 28.3 yard line. That's according to the NFL. Up 4.4 yards from this point last season.
30:13
But now here's the, by the way, through two weeks of the preseason, the unders are 26 and six as we talked about. Um, so f- up f- so 4.4 yards forward Up to the 28.3 yard line. But the, here's the deal.
30:26
This has, because 28.3, the 28.3 yard line is so close to the 30, which is what you, where you start on a touchback anyway- Mm-hmm...
30:35
that now it appears, there, there's some talk that teams are now just gonna blanket kick it out and we're just gonna start at the 30 every time now. Because if, if the average is 28.3, why risk a big play? Yeah.
30:48
So there's that. And by the way, next year they're considering making it a 35-yard line [laughs] to either, I, I don't know if it's to,
30:56
to prevent the touchback, the, the sort of de facto touchback, to make it a exciting play, and to also then increase scoring 'cause he shortens the field kind of thing. Yeah. So- Yeah... I don't know.
31:08
It's, it's, it's pretty interesting that the 4.4 yards has gotten to them, uh, has, has achieved what they were looking for, but now it's so close to the 30, now they just might kick it through the end zone anyway.
31:19
All right, so two things. I don't, I, I think that I'm very in- interested to see week one what actually the kickoffs are gonna look like.
31:26
'Cause I, if they were, if it was very different from what we've seen in the preseason, I won't be shocked by that.
31:31
Um- Wouldn't be the first time we saw, like, anything in the preseason, like referees being told to call something- Exactly. Yes... officials being told to call something- It, it-...
31:38
and all of a sudden it disappears week one. Um, I also wouldn't be surprised, though, if it [laughs], if it looks basically the same.
31:43
And like you said, it, most teams are just like, "We're just gonna boot out back the end zone," and the NFL has to reevaluate this rule 'cause I do think the point, the point they w- the biggest point was to try to make the kickoffs a thing again, right?
31:54
Yes. And if it's gonna d- continue that way, then that's a problem.
31:58
The biggest question I have with, for someone, I, a- and you know, this is probably for, more for a Steve Fezziks or something like that, but is this a over four yards worth of starting field position above from what we've seen a year ago, is this more of a, "Eh, the proof is kind of proving out for what the handicap was on the overs and it just hasn't gotten there the rest of the way," and still gonna be looking that way, looking overs, uh, heading into week one?
32:27
Or is it, no, okay, no, it's like you're saying, it's still close to the 30 and that's just where teams are gonna start and the unders are what they are? I don't know if that all made sense.
32:36
No, w- I, I, I think the answer to your broad question, I don't know if I understood it exactly, but the, the answer is w- anybody who thinks so surely that they know something, right?
32:46
Like if Fezz, Fezz has a huge brain. He was an actuary. The man knows stuff, right? But you know, he came in here, he's like, "Yes, it will increase scoring 1.7 points," whatever he said. Yeah, yeah.
32:54
Like he had, he was so sure about it. Yeah? And I just think you can't be, right? You can't be until we all see this play out. Right now it looks like just sort of a glorified running play, right?
33:05
Where like teams are getting a, a, a slightly larger head start- Right... on a running play. Um, we will not know the answer to any of these questions until a few weeks are played out.
33:15
And as far as the betting market is concerned, I don't think, I mean, they always lag in adjustment, so there could be opportunities, but all of our best theories might be bunk. Mm-hmm.
33:26
So like we might be way ahead of our skis on this. Time will tell. That's all I, that's all we can tell at this point. We'll come back. Uh, tennis next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:44
If you missed episode one of Circus Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million, you can watch it now at vsin.com. This five-part docuseries takes you inside the high stakes world of the annual Circus Survivor contest.
33:55
Follow the contestants as they make all or nothing picks over the 2023 NFL season, and go behind the scenes of the world's largest legal betting contest.
34:02
Several VSiN hosts make appearances along the way to offer their advice.
34:05
You can watch episodes two through five, by the way, next week, Monday through Thursday, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific, on vsin.com and YouTube TV, as well as a live broadcast on X.
34:17
Go to vsin.com/survivor for details or to watch episode one. Were you in this at all, Kelly? Not that I'm aware of. Not that you're aware? Okay. Yeah. I mean, I was... What did I say yesterday?
34:29
I was never interviewed for anything. Oh, okay. So unle- unless I'm just caught in the background or something. Yeah. Which I do [laughs] remember there was one or two days where I walked in- Oh, yeah...
34:37
remember one day I walked over there- Yes. [laughs]... I'm like, "Hey guys, what's going on over here?" That's it. I'm like, "Oh, you're in the middle of filming a, uh- A documentary... a documentary. Sorry."
34:44
Um, a- again, it was a year ago, so it was so long ago, you forget what you said. You forget. But when you, when they edit it together, like they pitted me and Crack against each other. [laughs] That was funny.
34:52
It was so great. That was good. I can't wait to see that with Crack the o- uh, on Thursday. Um, but it was cool. I can't wait for episodes two through five. Again, uh, Circus Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million.
35:03
And again, in episode one, uh, Stormy, uh, prominently featured, as was, uh, Pamela Maldonado. So, uh- Mm-hmm... it was very interesting, uh, first episode of that. Again, two through five coming next week.
35:16
Paul Sporer joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line right now. You can follow him on Twitter, @Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R. He comes to us from FanGraphs, every baseball dork's bible. How you doing, Paulie? I'm doing well.
35:30
How about you, Gil? I'm good. Uh, Kelly just asked me a couple segments ago, done or not done, we did an exercise of the six most prominent, uh, MLB awards markets, both MVPs, both Cy Youngs, both rookies of the year.
35:45
Okay. I said, and I wanna see if you agree or disagree, I said, again, barring injury here- Right... both M- both MVPs are done. It's gonna be Judge and Shohei.
35:56
And that AL Cy, sadly, because I have a Lugo ticket, is also done. The rest are still alive. You say? I don't know. Look, I'm wearing the Tigers cap. That's my guy, Scoobs. But there was a quote- Yes...
36:13
I think just yesterday, AJ Hinch, I'm sure you covered this, right? Yes, we did. That, uh, it's his last start on regular rest probably. So what, what might that do?
36:23
Um, Reagan's and, and your boy Lugo, they're in a pennant chase. You know, they're, they're in a fight. They need to do everything that they can They might be piling up the innings.
36:32
We know how these narratives get written down the stretch. I, I am not ready to call it. Okay. Love Scoob, he's my vote right now.
36:39
But as far as a bettors market, I don't think you have to call it yet, because the Tigers do not have any reason to push him. I actually do agree with this.
36:46
I understand, like, the award piece too, where, like, maybe Scoobs is, will be bummed out. But again, they're not gonna shut him down. So- That's what I'm saying...
36:54
I'll, you know, I'll make sure I'm not overstating it to, to, to suggest that he's not gonna pitch anymore. But I am wondering if that narrative can build a bit. Like, what if Kirby gets on a run too?
37:03
What if the offense actually wakes up and starts supporting him, uh, as well as his pitch?
37:07
But I think, I think the Royals guys, Lugo and Reagans are the two threats right now that could maybe sneak up, and maybe Gilbert too. I don't wanna, I don't wanna sleep on Gilbert completely.
37:15
Well, again, obviously holding the Lugo ticket, I hope you're right. But that, but you made the, the point there, which I think a lot of bettors immediately leapt to this, "Oh, they're shutting him down."
37:24
Eh, never said they're shutting him down. Oh, no. Yeah. You're just gonna- Yeah... you're just gonna slow play him the rest of the way, in other words, whether that's, you know, not- Day where they can- Go ahead.
37:33
I'm sorry... ex- sorry, I didn't mean to cut you off there, but extra day where they can. Yeah. Uh, early out if the offense gets going. You know, they've really infused that offense too. Listen, I'm a Tigers fan.
37:42
Again, I'm wearing the hat. So I'm, I'm looking at the positive side of things. But I love the youth infusion that they've just done, uh, this past week turning over that lineup.
37:51
So, you know, maybe they get Scoobal some leads, he comes out an inning or two early. That, it's that sort of stuff.
37:56
So don't be fearful if you're holding the Scoobal ticket, but just don't rip up your other pitcher ticket. That's all I'm saying. Well, I won't rip him up. I won't go that far. Um- I know you won't... yeah.
38:06
Um, okay, the other thing I mentioned earlier, we talked about, you know, what's the best single rest of season bet that remains on the board? And I gave my vote to, you can bet seatings at, uh, places like DraftKings.
38:19
Number one seed National League, Brewers are plus 550.
38:24
They're one game behind the Phillies for the best record right now, and their schedule is relatively easy, just a 499 aggregate, uh, strength of schedule, four, 499 aggregate win percentage of the remaining opponents.
38:37
Plus 550 on the Brewers, you likes? You know, this is why you're the best, man. Yeah, I do, I really do like this. This is, uh, this is pretty sharp here. Phillies, you know, we're not gonna crush them.
38:48
Um, I, I can't even imagine that they even care that much that they're in a little bit of a lull. They, they of all teams know how it is to get hot at the right moment.
38:56
So, you know, they're hitting a little downshift right now. Maybe they turn it up in September right in time for the playoffs, or even in the playoffs.
39:02
But by no means are they gonna necessarily have to push, because Atlanta, another huge loss with Riley. Yes. What if they're able to downshift entirely, uh, Philly, down the stretch to where they don't even care?
39:14
Um, they, they'll have a bye may- well, I guess m- uh, I just kind of caught myself there, though. If they are fighting for that bye, maybe they do have to kind of go full bore because- They do...
39:23
LA's standing there too. Yeah. So they can't downshift entirely. The division does feel pretty good though right now. After the Riley injury, I just don't see how the Braves bounce back from that one.
39:32
It's another huge player that's gone. But I like, I like the Brewers take. I don't love it as much, uh, now that I'm thinking that Philly does have to kind of still grind for a bye seed, though.
39:44
Um, I [laughs] I was talking about this, by the way, the Austin Riley thing. And again, another Braves injury. He's out six to eight weeks. Yeah.
39:50
And yet, somehow, because the Mets just have been, you know, just a big disappointment here in August, they just refuse to, to... They, they were for a moment.
40:00
They took a, a brief lead for one night for that sixth, uh, and final seeding, uh, the last wildcard spot, if you will, in the NL. But then the, uh, the Braves took it right back.
40:09
And the Braves have a one and a half game lead over the Mets right now, three and a half over the Giants.
40:14
I'm curious, do you feel that the 12 teams that are currently in playoff position are in fact going to be the 12 teams that are in the postseason? [sighs] I, I, I just, I can't lock the Braves in right now.
40:29
I mean, they're just- That's the only one, right? Body blows. Yeah.
40:32
You know, Gio Rus- Gio Urshela can come over there and stabilize the position defensively, uh, picked up off the waiver wire from the Tigers, but he's not gonna bring an Austin Riley bat, even a muted Austin Riley bat.
40:44
Uh, I just, it's just another body blow for them. I do think the Mets...
40:48
The Mets are the Mets, though, and, you know, I've pushed back against that narrative at times, and then they make me look stupid by doing something Metsy, so [laughs] It, it's the Giants that I think could actually really storm the castle.
40:57
Yes. You know, I even mentioned it the last time we were together.
41:00
Uh-huh.
42:21
I gave them some [laughs] I, I'm a little bit, I guess I'm more nervous. They haven't necessarily disappointed me yet. I think they have a chance to disappoint us in the playoffs, which is the Orioles. Yeah.
42:37
Because if You know, where's their pitching right now? Yeah. Even Burnsy isn't at peak, peak Burnsy. He's very good.
42:44
He's still very much, uh, an ace front runner there, but not, like, dominating everyone, striking out all the time. And with Grayson out, we don't know when he's gonna be when they come back.
42:53
So I'm kind of, like, pre-worried about them. As far as to, to date, I don't know. I didn't have the highest expectations for the Yankees, so they're actually kind of, uh, improving on that. Same with the Brewers.
43:02
I thought they could be interesting, but not in first all year like they've been. Um, and the Padres bounced back.
43:09
So no, I'm not massively disappointed by any of these teams, but I do think the Orioles have a chance to set up another disappointment as this young team tries to keep learning, because I don't think they're gonna have a great post-season.
43:20
I'm, I'm nervous about it. All right. DFS is on the way out, sir. All right. So looking at the pitching today, uh, did I lose my sheet? I absolutely did. We got aces today. We got Reagan's, Wheeler.
43:30
I'm in on either of them. I like Blanco as an interesting pivot. He, he's not super cheap, but he's going against Boston, so he could be underutilized. Robbie Ray is gonna be huge.
43:38
Raylo coming off the IL against that struggling Philly team. That could be another interesting pivot if you're trying to be a little unique with it. Don't get caught up in the Walker Buehler price, price drop.
43:47
I, I'm not in on Buehler and Bobby Miller right now until they show me something. As far as teams that you, that you want to attack, I think you can definitely start to look at Matthew Boyd against the Yankees.
43:57
I know he pitched well his first time out, but I'm very nervous about him in Yankee Stadium, so you can obviously go with the big Yankees there. And Dean Kramer has not pitched well. I like, uh, the Mets against him.
44:07
All right. Paul Spohrer, everybody. Thank you, Paulie, as always. Thanks. Take care. @Spohrer, Fan Graph, Sleeper and the Bus, the name of the podcast. Uh, the rare August NBA segment.
44:19
How many times do you think we did an NBA segment in August, Coach? Hands full, Coach. Yeah. Uh, season win totals. Kelly's got thoughts. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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