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Aug 20, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 20, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 20, 2026
00:00
46:45
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota. Let's Go Places.
0:59
[static] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
1:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
1:19
It is a Numbers Game live from Circa Resort & Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Kelly Bidlin remains on assignment back in Nashville, Tennessee. He'll be back on Monday.
1:28
Uh, today on the show, Danny Higgins has put together a, uh, banger.
1:32
Will Hill will join us to talk Major League Baseball and National Football League, all of his bets, uh, that he has today and beyond coming up on the show this morning.
1:41
And then, of course, on the crescendo to Unscripted with the Crack Man Bill Krackenberg, which we always do at 12 noon Eastern, 9:00 a.m. Pacific, a couple guests that will, uh, do some season-long stuff with us.
1:55
Paul Carr joining us to talk the global football, soccer, as we refer to it. Uh, Paul's got a whole bunch of stuff, whole bunch of, uh, different kinds of plays in the Premier League.
2:06
We're talking about, uh, what team to be relegated, team to finish last.
2:11
That, of course, at the bottom of the Prem, but he's also gonna do Golden Boot stuff, um, all kinds of different season-long bets, and we'll track these all season long.
2:21
Paul Carr on the Prem, then he'll come back tomorrow and actually give his standard three-pack of plays for the first weekend of Premier League football, if you will. And then Warren Sharp will join us.
2:31
We have, of course, had extensive, uh, segments on our VSiN NFL betting guide. Aaron Schatz was here to talk NF- uh, FTN, their NFL betting guide for the year.
2:41
Aaron Schatz's FTN, by the way, is the official title of that one. Um, Cleve was here. Cleve T. Ay talked about his football preview. You know who we haven't had on the show yet this year?
2:49
Warren Sharp with his football preview.
2:52
Well, we remedy that today, and as is Warren's thing, and this is always great when Warren comes on preseason because his sort of cottage industry is not only schedules, right, easiest, hardest, the obvious thing there, but he will also break down scheduling quirks with net rest, uh, rest edge, which teams get the best of it this year, which teams get the worst of it.
3:15
Uh, are there three games in 10 days? Are, are there four games in 17? Those were always bugaboos for him.
3:22
We find out that that got remedied in, in what is always an interesting scheduling discussion with the National Football League because of all, of all of our sports leagues, right?
3:30
Um, it's the one that is the most imbalanced. It's the one that's the most incongruent just because, unlike the other sports, divisions are playing other divisions specifically, right? Not, not full schedules.
3:44
If you got 31 games and you got to play all 31 other teams, then it would be much more even. But this is just, it's bizarro in terms of not only who you play, but also
3:54
what kind of games you play in terms of rest and what your opponent's rest are, and then aggregate them not only on a week-to-week ba- or, or specific weeks, but also aggregate them throughout the whole season.
4:04
So we'll talk to Warren extensively about that. He's got his pro football guide out. Uh, let's do the administrative stuff first. MLB August, I think we're done. I think we're not gonna do a back-to-back here.
4:15
Um, Tigers up three to two yesterday in Pittsburgh at PNC. Kenley Jansen takes the hill. We had Paul Sporer on yesterday. Paul, Paul texted me after this game.
4:24
He goes, "I hate being so right with this," 'cause all he said-- He said, "The problem with the Tigers is they didn't, they just didn't address the bullpen." And Kenley Jensen of... K-Kenley Jansen, of course, is
4:33
the face of that as the cl- as the closer. Gives up a one-out game-tying solo shot in the ninth, and then with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, game tied, Tigers trying to push it to extras at this point.
4:45
Brandon Lowe off the right field foul pole, or as Warner Wolf liked to say, the fair pole, and the Pirates win, and so that drops the Tigers. Now, this is...
4:55
It was great until this past weekend, and now it has all gone into the, uh, into the toilet, the toilette.
5:03
It would re- it would require a winning streak of epic proportions here to get us back in this, but as it turns out now, it's not, probably not gonna happen for our 60 to 1 shot on the Tigers.
5:11
The Phillies now solo lead for August wins. I know Mark Borchardt, that was his play for the month of August. So let's go Mark Borchardt. If we can't win, let's have him win it. 13 and five.
5:22
Obviously, Phillies not nearly as long of a shot as the Tigers, but the Phillies at 13 and five have the lead right now. Three teams behind the Phillies, Rays, Padres, and Cubs, all with 12 wins.
5:31
Then you see the Metropolitans, Cardinals, and Blue Jays, all with 11 wins. Tigers mired, and I do mean mired now, at nine and eight. Nothing special in this month of August.
5:40
They do have a three-game set, again, at Kansas City this weekend. Better sweep, or we go even further into the toilette. Uh, tennis yesterday, clean sweep. Hope everybody played the tennis yesterday. We had two plays.
5:54
Uh, the clean sheet, I should say. Uh, the big one was Thiago Agustín Tirante, who took down Jakub Menšík as a plus 183 dog. We win that in three sets.
6:05
And then Amanda Anisimova, one and four, as they say in the tennis game, 6-1, 6-4 win, clinical over Linda Nosková. That was at even money. So we hit both of those. Good day. Again, hope everybody was on it.
6:17
And here's the deal now 'Cause we talk-- I only have one play again today. We're in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati.
6:22
Again, the tou-the tournament that precedes the US Open here at hard court season, US Open, of course, being the Slam. Um, great quarters on the, uh, ladies' side.
6:31
Sabalenka got knocked out last night by Sara Bejlia, which was just amazing. Um, Sabalenka's got something going on between the ears these days. But we have one play, and it's on the men's side.
6:41
It is once again, for the third straight match, Thiago Agustin Tirante, plus 278 versus Arthur Fils. So here's the deal again.
6:52
This is, you know, we talk about this with sports betting, that sometimes, uh, the narrative, the, the mainstream media narrative helps us as sports bettors. Well, few matches ago, Tirante played Novak Djokovic.
7:04
My numbers pointed to Tirante. I did not have the onions to, to play Tirante, uh, at that number against Djokovic, 'cause after all, he is Novak Djokovic.
7:15
Tirante ends up winning, but Djokovic ends up getting sick, vomits all over the place, literally, uh, on the side, uh, on the side during that match, and so that took the mainstream narrative.
7:25
Oh, well, Djokovic got sick. They don't have access to the numbers, though. Actually, Tirante might have won that anyway, even were Djokovic going full steam there.
7:35
Took him, took him the next match, Tirante against, uh, Martin Landaluce. We won there. Yesterday as the big dog against Mensik. Today we're taking him as a plus 278 dog against Arthur Fils.
7:47
Now, again, do I think Fils should be the favorite? I do, but I don't think Tirante should be anywhere close to plus 278. In fact, even plus 178, he probably shouldn't be. So Tirante is the play.
7:57
Let's go see if we can get that one a third straight win on, what did, what did Matt want to call him? Tat? T-A-T? Tat? See if we can do it again. This time as an even bigger dog than yesterday. Uh, okay.
8:09
We started this with Matt yesterday. Matt Brown was kind enough to join, um, yesterday.
8:12
We started this with him yesterday, but I'll go through it again 'cause we didn't get through the end of it, and I want to get the Drew Dincic angle. We have th- we have, uh, two NFL preseason games today.
8:21
We have three tomorrow. And again, um, just good to know what the, what the status is with the main players. Again, Vegas at Houston today. Kirk Cousins, of course, has taken the bulk of the first team reps.
8:34
Um, Mendoza has taken the bulk of the second team reps, but in this game, Raiders plan to give Mendoza extended first team reps against the Houston defense.
8:44
DeMeco Ryans of the Texans part confirming that a change of approach here in week two as, as, uh, contrasted with what they did in week one. They're gonna play everyone healthy and cleared to play.
8:56
Everyone's gonna start here for the Texans. C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, Nico Collins, they're in line for the first live snaps of the summer.
9:03
Now, let me incorporate the Drew Dincic angle here, which is he doesn't care about anything but the joint practices and fading the team that got crushed in the joint practice.
9:13
In other words, taking the team that did well in the joint practice, and the assumption is they're gonna not play it as, as aggressively in the actual game that follows that.
9:24
Well, the Texans and Raiders had a joint practice, and all reports indicating that the Texans controlled the line of scrimmage, gave the Raiders major trouble.
9:33
Uh, Las Vegas struggled defensively through multiple pick sixes during the controlled sessions, giving Houston clear momentum.
9:38
So if you're into the Drew angle, the Drew Dincic angle, this would be a play on, on the Raiders, minus one and a half at Houston tonight. There's one more we'll get to.
9:47
It's not actually tonight or tomorrow in terms of a joint practice angle. Uh, as far as the other game tonight, San Francisco at the Chargers.
9:54
Uh, J- Mike Shanahan about Brock Purdy says, uh, "Haven't told him yet, but there's a good chance," meaning Purdy'll probably go today. Mac Jones didn't play in week one preseason either.
10:02
He'll probably get some reps today. No CMC, uh, no George Kittle, no Nick Bosa. Even Mike Evans left, uh, Tuesday's joint practice with leg soreness. A lot of, a lot of tightness.
10:13
That's the word that the Niners are using for a lot of these injuries, tightness. Substation conspiracy alert, tightness is what it causes.
10:21
Um, and then, uh, with the Chargers, starters are gonna play a series, then they're gonna come out. Jim Harbaugh very clear about this.
10:27
Herbert, Justin Herbert didn't play in week one, so this will mark his preseason debut under Mike McDaniel's system. Ladd McConkie, Quentin Johnson, they'll get some snaps as well. Tomorrow, Jets at Pittsburgh.
10:37
We said yesterday it was gonna be Aaron Rodgers. Not gonna be Aaron Rodgers anymore for Pittsburgh. It is going to be Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, Drew Aller, some combination of those three.
10:45
Drew Aller coming off the just ridiculously good performance in week one of the preseason. Uh, remember with the Jets,
10:52
Geno is touch and go here, but they have a real battle for the number two position like the Steelers do. Maybe even a, a m- even stronger battle for the number two position with the Jets.
11:02
Cade Klubnik, Brady Cook, Bailey Zappe, they'll all get some run tonight. Jets at Pittsburgh. Steelers are a one-and-a-half point home dog there after the Aaron Rodgers c- news came out yesterday.
11:12
Tomorrow, there's three games. Carolina at Jacksonville. Uh, Bryce Young and the starting offense expected to play multiple series for the second straight week under Dave Canales.
11:21
Uh, he's gonna play the majority of the starters for a couple of drives, they say, uh, for Carolina. And then with Jacksonville, Liam Cohen reversing course this week. He'll play his starters, he says.
11:30
So that's a, a bit of a shift from his original plan to hold him out of every preseason game.
11:33
So he will play some Trevor Lawrence and others to, quote, "Uh, get a couple drives in potentially," unquote, against the Panthers. Uh, another one-and-a-half point road favorite.
11:45
All three of these games we've mentioned, one-and-a-half point road favorites. Green Bay at Denver. Uh, Jordan Love set to play for the second straight week. Matt LaFleur hasn't detailed how long he'll stay in the game.
11:53
Quote, "You're just gonna have to watch and find out." So I think it's pretty fluid. There you go. That's all we got from, [chuckles] from Matt LaFleur.
12:00
Um, Love played only the opening series in the week one loss to Pittsburgh. Broncos are six-point home favorites. Bo Nix gonna make his preseason debut for the Broncos in that one.
12:10
And, um, as far as the other joint practice news, the other bit of joint practice news I wanted to mention, if you're, if you're into the Drew Dincic fade angle, mentioned the play on would be the Raiders then because they were so dominated by the Texans.
12:25
The other one this weekend is all indications from the Patriots and Eagles joint practice is that the Patriots Performed very well against Philly's defense,
12:37
and the Patriots' secondary dominated, so that would be a play on, on the Eagles on Saturday, if you're into the fade-the-joint-practice good-team angle that Drew loves so much. We'll come back. Will Hill joins us.
12:48
All his bets next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:02
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:15
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:21
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:30
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
13:38
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
13:47
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Most people think sports betting's about picking winners.
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14:21
That's ungambled.com/vsin, and use promo code VSIN for 10% off. Bet sharp, look square. It's Gil Alexander. Just want to read a couple tweets here. Chance Copperpot, "I have to agree with Will on Hard Knocks.
14:33
I binge-watched all of the new season last night. I thought it was very," or "I thought it was pretty good," pardon me. I don't wanna overstate it.
14:38
He says, "I thought it was pretty good, and the last few seasons have been meh to me. There's a very long scene with a slow-motion spiral that seemed like filler." [laughs] Oh, that sounds, that sounds exciting.
14:48
Uh, and this is from, uh, Xavier82, "I hope Will's first play on the mega pot is the Titans over the Jets in week one. Robert Saleh returns to stomp his former team into the ground. Let's go. NFL almost here."
14:59
Yeah, man, you get me charged up. And then, uh, Bobtimus Prime, he's kind of all over the place in this, uh, tweet. He says, "I also had a rough year last year. Trying not to let it creep into this year.
15:09
I never let the, quote-unquote, 'eye test' have any weight. I think that was a mistake. It's hard to balance how much weight to give it, though. That's the art of picking, I guess."
15:17
Yeah, yeah, pr- uh, Bobtimus Prime, if it was easy, right, if it was easy to solve this puzzle of sports betting, man, we'd all, we'd all be, uh, on a beach, right? So it's a puzzle. It's always difficult.
15:29
It's always an alchemy of different things, numbers, motivations, all kinds of things which we'll get into Warren Sharp here later in the hour. And, uh, let's see. Scotty, "Good morning, Gil.
15:40
Doing a great job flying solo." Thank you. "Could you please ask Paul Carr if he's also Arb Thief," I don't know who that is, "on Twitter? Cheers." Uh, I'm pretty sure he's not.
15:50
Uh, it's Paul Carr, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, @paulcarr, C-A-R-R. He works at True Media Networks. He does, he doesn't just work there.
15:59
He's one of the guys that runs the show over there, I believe is the, is the proper way to phrase it. Paul Carr joins us now once again from the heartland. You are not this other...
16:07
You don't have another Twitter account, right? No. I don't have time for that. I'm not Arb Thief. Yes. [laughs] I'm sorry. [laughs] Didn't, didn't think so. All right.
16:14
[laughs] So, uh, season long, Man City to win the title. Paul already talked- Yeah... about that, plus 350. Let's get this one out of the way 'cause we already talked about it.
16:22
Hull City then you're betting to finish last, I, I'm guessing? Yeah. Um, I got 'em at plus 120 last night. Uh, if there's plus money out there or even paying a little juice, I would still like it.
16:33
Well, let me put it this way. Uh, w- so last year in the ch- the Championship is the second division.
16:38
Hull City finished sixth in the Championship, and they won the playoff, uh, between third through sixth to get to the Premier League.
16:45
Uh, their expected goal difference, meaning, you know, basically what their goal difference could've, should've been based on the shots taken and given up, was minus 19- [laughs]...
16:55
which was second worst in the entire 24-team league. [laughs] They overachieved by one of the, you know, top 14 from an overachieving standpoint over the past 10 years in the league.
17:05
And, and generally, good defense translates better than good offense when moving up to the Premier League. Well, their defense was terrible.
17:12
They gave up the second most expected goals, the third-best shots in the league. And while they've made a lot of signings since then, there's no, like, big wow signings in there. So I don't...
17:24
It's really hard for me to see how they don't finish last. Uh, so I got a plus 120. Any, like, minus 110, minus 120 I think is still interesting.
17:32
The, any projections you see under 20 points is pretty normal, so it's really hard for me to see them not finishing last. I just looked at the map to check out where, uh, Hull City is. So it's, uh- Yeah...
17:42
East, East Coast, north of Birmingham is essentially- Okay... where it is- All right... for those who care about such things. All right. Then there's the top four, those that advance to the Champions League, top four?
17:52
And you have a bet on this. Yeah, top five will advance, actually. That... Oh yeah, they changed it. So you can bet top five. That's right. Obviously different prices. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I like Chelsea here.
17:59
So, you know, Arsenal, City are kind of a given, and then you've got a tier of three, Chelsea, United, Man United, and Liverpool, that presumably are fighting for third and fourth, and I think Chelsea has the most upside here.
18:12
Their most important transfer for the off-season was probably their manager, Xabi Alonso, who was at Leverkusen, uh, Real Madrid briefly before he was fired last season, but that was really more for, you know, not getting along with players and/or front office than on-the-field results.
18:29
Uh, and now he's coming into a Chelsea team that was finished in 10th last year, but their underlying numbers were closer to fifth.
18:35
So- They're not as bad as they ended up last year, and they have a lot of a, lot of talent that they just couldn't figure out.
18:42
Um, you know, Cole Palmer, Joao Pedro, Estevao's a young kid, uh, they've got there, Pedro Neto.
18:49
Lots of different guys who could come in and score goals, uh, so they gotta, they have to figure that out, but I'm really confident in Xabi Alonso. I think he's a good manager, so that's the biggest reason.
18:57
He's just gonna kinda steady the ship and be the adult in the room at Chelsea, and with that, I like them top four at minus 120. Top four, Chelsea minus 120. This is the only minus, uh, bet of all of these.
19:09
The rest of these are in plus money. Let's do top half and bottom half. You made a bet on each of these. All right. Yeah, I got Crystal Palace top half.
19:16
Uh, they finished 15th last season, but they were 10th at the midway point before they kind of faded because the last half of the year they were focused on the UEFA Conference League, which is like the CBI, basically, the third European competition, but they won that tournament, and that's what they were really focused on once it was clear they were safe from relegation and such.
19:35
So they are a more of a 10th place type of team or better. They also underachieved, uh, from a expected goals standpoint significantly last season.
19:43
Uh, scored 33 non-penalty goals but were expected to get about 52, so that's a pretty big gap that they could, you know, even if they just kind of revert back to that, they'll be pretty good.
19:52
Most of the attack is still back, at least at the moment. They do have a new manager, a guy named Pierre Sage is coming in from Lens in France, but I like his resume, so I think they'll be all right.
20:02
Um, a year ago, they were 155 to finish top half, and now they're 250, and there's not a lot that has changed here, I don't think. So yeah, plus 250 is good for me on Palace to finish top half.
20:15
Gotta finish in the top 10. That's the top half, Crystal Palace plus 250. And then Aston Villa bottom half plus 275. Yeah, sort of the opposite story.
20:24
Villa finished fourth last year but ran super hot, exceeding their expected goal difference by 12, which was second-best in the league. Uh, lost a handful of players, so I'm looking at them at bottom half at plus 275.
20:35
They're also going to be in Champions League this year, which is obviously good for them, but also means, you know, it's the old you're fighting a battle on multiple fronts problem, where Villa doesn't have the depth of the top few clubs and they're not as good as those teams.
20:48
They can't take as many, you know, take a Champions League game off if you're playing a lesser team or something. So I think they're gonna struggle.
20:53
They could be about as good o- as last year and still fall down the table pretty easily. 'Cause again, that 6th through 15th, through 17th is pretty tight.
21:03
It was only what, five or six points separating half a dozen spots last year.
21:06
So they drop, you know, they drop a few points just as they're not running as well, and a few more 'cause they're in Champions League, and you're down in the bottom half. So plus 275 on the bottom half for Villa.
21:15
I li- I like the SEC comparison you made earlier with the, the, the- Yeah... middle that is more murky than the, than the top and bottom. Right.
21:22
Uh, okay, now I don't know this for a fact 'cause I didn't, I didn't go back, but by recollection, this is the, the best historical Paul Carr category of season longs, which is team to be relegated.
21:35
You've hit these a couple years at least, and all at good prices. You're taking a shot this year in this category as well. Yeah, last year we got Wolverhampton at plus 300, 330, something like that. Mm-hmm.
21:46
Couple years ago was, I think it was Southampton at like plus 110. Um, this year I'm going with Sunderland at plus 350. So they're the fourth favorite to be relegated. Uh, Hull City we covered.
21:57
The other two new teams up are Ipswich Town and Coventry City. I think one of those two is going to survive. Um, they're pretty close.
22:04
I could be persuaded either way, and I think Sunderland is the best candidate to drop down in. Now, it may seem odd, they finished seventh last year, but they ran super hot, especially early. Uh, they ran about 15 goals.
22:17
The expected goal difference was about 15 goals worse than where they actually were.
22:21
Uh, didn't take a ton of shots, didn't take a lot of shot quality, and, and they had a lot of comeback wins, which is, you know, that's good for them, but that's hard to sustain.
22:29
They didn't score first very often, uh, so they haven't changed the team a whole lot, and they're playing in Europa League, which is the NIT of European soccer. [laughs] So they've got the two front battle issue, too.
22:40
Um, yeah, didn't bring a lot in. You know, if they play back last season again, they're probably in the bottom half, and they could easily, you know, lose a few more points and really struggle here.
22:49
So plus 350, I think that's pretty good on Sunderland to be relegated. All right, Paul, we saved the best for last, at least the, the longest shot for last here. [laughs] Golden Boot you are taking a flyer. Oh, boy.
22:59
What do you got? We hit a 40 to 1. We split a 40 to 1 like four years ago on Son Heung-min for Tottenham, so I'm taking another 40 to 1 on Cole Palmer of Chelsea to win the Golden Boot. Took him last year at 28 to 1.
23:11
Didn't come close, but- [laughs]... you know, it happens. Um, it's a 40 to 1 shot. I'm not saying go bet the house on it, but it's, it's worth a sprinkle to me. Uh, here's the case.
23:18
We always talk about you have to take penalties, and you have to play for a good team. Yes. Cole Palmer takes penalties, so that's worth probably five, seven goals we hope this season. Plays for a good team in Chelsea.
23:27
We covered them, a top four team, I think.
23:30
He's got a new manager, Xabi Alonso, who I think will play him in kind of a, a more of a dual 10 spot that he likes, basically get him more up the field, closer to goal, have more opportunities.
23:40
So you get five or six penalties. He's shown he can score, you know, 15 other goals, and once you top 20, you're in, you got a decent shot at it.
23:47
Now, you're still kind of betting that Erling Haaland is gonna get hurt, so he doesn't score 25 goals. But at 40 to 1, I think that's worth a sprinkle on Cole Palmer. All right.
23:55
We'll go over these, uh, towards the end of the show as well, but let's, let's rifle through them. Man City to win the title, plus 350. Chelsea top four, minus 120. Crystal Palace top half of the table, plus 250.
24:07
Aston Villa bottom half of the table, plus 275 when all is said and done. Sunderland to be relegated, a Paul Carr special at plus 350. Then there's Hull City. Uh, I forgot about that one.
24:17
Hull City to finish last at plus 120, flirting perhaps with the all-time low record of points. And then Cole Palmer of Chelsea, Golden Boot, 40 to 1. Paul, let's do it. We'll have you on tomorrow- Buckle up...
24:31
w- tomorrow over a, a three-pack of plays? You betcha. We'll be back. Okay. Paul Carr, a double header three-pack of plays starting out the Premier League season tomorrow. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it.
24:43
@paulcarr, by the way, on Twitter, works at True Media Networks. We'll come back, Warren Sharp on the NFL next.
24:56
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network It's a big day around here. We got our second annual Pro Football Futures Draft happening 5:00 PM Eastern, 2:00 PM Pacific. So it's during Follow the Money.
25:07
Dustin Sweetolson will actually be the, uh, master of ceremonies for our 2026 VSiN Pro Football Futures Draft, our second annual.
25:17
13 VSiN hosts and guests facing off in a fantasy football style snake draft hosted by the great Dustin Sweetolson.
25:23
Every pick doubles as a handicapping breakdown you can use, win totals, division winners, player props, and stat leaders. Last year's competitors all back for round two.
25:31
Defending champion Patrick Maher, by the way, he will be, uh, in the number one position in the terms of the draft order. He's got the first pick in the draft.
25:39
Uh, joined by three newcomers this year, stepping into the Futures Draft room for the first time. Super Bowl-winning wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson will join us today. Comedian and sports commentator Nick Bakay.
25:50
Looking forward to that. And the guru John Hanson. Don't just watch the Futures Draft, profit from it. Tune in today, once again, 5:00 PM Eastern, 2:00 PM Pacific, only on VSiN, the sports betting network.
26:00
We're all looking forward to that later today. Uh, so as I was saying earlier on the show, hey, the VSiN Pro Football Betting Guide, we talked about that extensively this summer.
26:08
Our buddy Aaron Schatz came on, talked about the FTN. Aaron Schatz's FTN Pro Football Almanac. Uh, Cleve T. Ayre, our buddy with his football guide. And, uh, we, there was one big omission.
26:19
We didn't have Warren Sharp on the show, and we absolutely make good on that right now.
26:24
He is the author of the very cleverly titled Warren Sharp's book, The 2026 Football Preview, which man, I don't know how many years he's done this for now. I'll ask him that right off the top.
26:34
It's Warren Sharp, everybody, who you can follow on Twitter, one of the most popular Twitter follows in terms of the football season there ever is @SharpFootball. Warren joins us now. First of all, where are you, Warren?
26:47
I'm back in Northern Virginia. I just got back from the Outer Banks. Few weeks prior was down in the Bahamas. So, uh, we've taken some vacation. I've improved my tan, and, uh- [laughs]...
26:57
that's gonna fade away during the course of the season progressively as I stay locked in this lair, uh, working on, you know, predicting the outcomes of all these games all the way through till February, Valentine's Day this year, Gil, as you well know.
27:10
Oh, as, as we well know, the Super Bowl is on Valentine's Day. Start preparing them, and you know by who I'm talking about. Start preparing them for a Valentine's Day Super Bowl.
27:19
Uh, okay, Warren, let's just start with that question. How many years have you done this now, this Pro Football Guide?
27:27
Yeah, um, so a few years I was just posting PDFs of this document, and it became a book first for purchase over on Amazon in 2016. So, uh, this is my 11th year doing it. Uh, right now we're at 619 pages.
27:45
I got it here. And you're right, Gil. Look at that. Omission- Wow... didn't, didn't come on earlier. Yeah. And so we're gonna make good on that. You said we're gonna make good on it by having me on.
27:53
We're gonna make even better on it for everybody who's listening. You can get this 619-page book over at Amazon right now. I think it's like 25% off on sale. You can just search for it.
28:02
If you want the PDF, for you guys, Gil, it's going to be absolutely for free. Wow. It's just going to be called, go to my website, sharpfootballanalysis.com, and enter the code free book.
28:14
And everybody who's listening today only will get the book for free. I apologize. We're late in the calendar a little bit. Pre-season week two starts tonight.
28:22
Everybody's gotta get up to speed on my predictions for this upcoming season, how I think things are gonna play out. So you can do that very quickly without spending any money using that code free book. Love it.
28:33
Sharp Analysis, uh, sharpfootballanalysis.com, pardon me, sharpfootballanalysis.com, free book promo code. He'll send you the PDF for free. Uh, you do- you obviously preview every team. You do fantasy stuff.
28:45
It's a, it's a extensive guide. I mean, you just held it up there. That thing is unbelievably dense. I wanna al- I wanna focus, and this is kinda y- uh, it's kind of been synonymous with you here.
28:55
You've made this your thing, which is schedule. Now, we'll start with the sort of broader category, which isn't necessarily only your thing.
29:02
We'll start with, uh, uh, toughest schedule, easiest schedule, and then we'll work our way from that into some of the more unique Warren Sharp sort of scheduling angles.
29:12
But let's just start with the, the top five in each of those categories, strength of schedule. Yeah, so top five easiest schedules. This was updated as of last week.
29:22
I factor in looking forward at the upcoming season based upon the odds that are current by the sports books. I don't look at 2025 win-loss record or anything in the past.
29:33
Top five easiest schedules, the Lions, number one, the Bengals, number two, Saints, number three, Jets, number four, Baltimore Ravens, number five.
29:43
The one that stands out to me here a little bit is the Cincinnati Bengals because I think the AFC North is down a little bit.
29:50
If you look at all of those other teams that are in the North, obviously we know about the Cleveland Browns, but I think the Baltimore Ravens making some adjustments with a new coaching staff.
29:59
You got the Pittsburgh Steelers.
30:01
Mike McCarthy coming back to work with Aaron Rodgers, but is this the same Aaron Rodgers that Mike McCarthy was working with in Green Bay where they were pushing the ball down the field, trying to gain explosives to Davante Adams?
30:12
This seems to be the Aaron Rodgers who just wants to get rid of the football underneath, try to survive to live another play, doesn't wanna take any hits in the pocket.
30:21
Joe Burrow has been excellent against teams outside of the AFC North.
30:27
If you look at the last four years, he's 23 wins and only nine losses against all other divisions, but he's eight wins to 11 losses against the AFC North.
30:36
If he racks up a few more wins against the AFC North this year, and he's now going up against the second easiest schedule in the NFL, I think the Bengals are going to win enough games to not only put themselves back into the postseason, but make themselves have some intrigue there amongst the AFC upper echelon.
30:56
I took them over nine and a half wins. I took some alt-overs on their win totals. I think there's some upside for the Cincinnati Bengals, as you see their schedule displayed there on the screen.
31:07
Last year, they lost 49.8 EPA from turnovers. That was the third mo- worst mark of any team. They trailed in 16 out of 17 games. They allowed the number two most fourth quarter points.
31:21
Their EPA per play on third downs inside of field goal range, which is a key statistic that I look at, are you c- Turning those into first downs so that you can score touchdowns, or are you gonna have to settle for field goals?
31:34
They were the fourth worst of any team. We know Joe Burrow was injured.
31:37
I was on the under of the Cincinnati Bengals last season on their win total, expecting them to struggle, and expecting, quite frankly, Joe Burrow to have to carry that team.
31:46
And if Joe Burrow was injured, that would be a problem. Joe Burrow got injured, Bengals struggled. I think they go over their win total this year. Very, very strong case for the Cincinnati Bengals.
31:56
Second easiest schedule. By the way, the easiest schedule, the Detroit Lions, as you point out in your guide, uh, in the Warren Sharp Football Preview.
32:03
Lions play just six games against teams expected to have a winning record this season, three against teams expected to have 10-plus. That's how easy their schedule is. Uh, what about the toughest schedules, Warren?
32:16
So the five toughest schedules based on pure strength of schedule, we're gonna talk about rest in a second with Gil. Five toughest, Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins.
32:23
It's just hilarious, those two teams that are projected to be the two worst also have to deal with the two toughest schedules. Then you've got the Carolina Panthers. Interesting notes on them.
32:32
Washington Commanders, Gil's team, and the Dallas Cowboys round out the five most difficult schedules.
32:38
If we talk about the Miami Dolphins here just f- briefly, I think it's interesting, uh, they play the third most difficult prep and rest schedule, which factors in some other components that we're gonna be talking about momentarily in terms of teams that you're gonna face that are off of a bye or have extra rest than you, whereas the Aro- Arizona Cardinals actually have an easier schedule in that regard.
33:00
The Miami Dolphins also play the Las Vegas Raiders in week one. They'll likely play Kirk Cousins, which is gonna make life a little bit more difficult for them, uh, in that respect.
33:10
They've lost a number of skill players. Their secondary might be the worst in the NFL. And then you've got Malik Willis taking snaps from behind center.
33:18
And Malik Willis excelled in Green Bay, if you wanna call it that, because the Green Bay defense was able to hold opposing offenses to, like, 13, 16 points.
33:27
And so he was able to win games 14 to 13, or 16 to 13, or 17 to 14, that type of score.
33:34
This Miami Dolphins defense, Jeff Hafley's first year there, they are not going to play as well as Green Bay's defense did last year. They have some of the worst talent in the NFL. They're gonna allow a lot of points.
33:44
I think he's going to struggle. I bet the Miami Dolphins to have the fewest wins in the NFL. Ooh. I think that was, like, plus 400 when I got it. It's, like, maybe plus 375, something like that right now.
33:54
And then if we wanna touch on the Carolina Panthers briefly, another interesting strength of schedule nugget here. They played the fourth easiest schedule of pass defenses last year.
34:04
This year, I've got them going up against the number two most difficult schedule of pass defenses. I think Bryce Young is gonna struggle immensely against this schedule of pass defenses.
34:13
I think the Carolina Panthers are gonna struggle to win games this year. Uh, I bet them under their win total. I also bet Bryce Young under his passing yardage total.
34:22
I think he's going to be in for a rude awakening against this difficult schedule of pass defenses he goes up against in 2026. I love it, backing it all up with bets. I love it, Warren.
34:31
Uh, Warren Sharp, our guest here this morning.
34:33
Uh, after the break, we got a, a minute till the break, but after the break, we're gonna get into some of the nuts and bolts, some specifics when it comes to, uh, the notion of net rest edge, net rest disadvantage, uh, net rest delta, that kind of thing, which, which Warren has just been great through through the years.
34:48
I wanna just ask you two macro questions beforehand. One, um, does the NFL care about this stuff that you sort of expose every off-season? Do they care about scheduling imbalance, generally speaking?
35:03
Not to the gre- degree that I do.
35:06
They try to bluff it off like it doesn't matter at all, when in fact it does play a role, especially if you're talking about teams that are coming off of three days extra rest or three days less rest.
35:16
There are some rest situations that matter more than others.
35:20
Uh, but the league primarily cares about who's on TV, how can we get the most ranking, uh, most ratings on these games to earn the most TV revenue from our advertisers, et cetera. Comes down to the money.
35:32
Uh, the other question, which I'll ask Warren at, uh, after the break, uh, before he gets into it is, does this translate? Like, do we have the evidence that this translates into betting, uh, edge?
35:43
And I believe we know the answer to that. Coming back after the break. Warren Sharp right here on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
36:05
It is a Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander. That right there, of course, is Bill Krackomberger. This whole hour unscripted with the Crack Man Bill Krackomberger.
36:14
You can follow him on Twitter, @BillCrackMan. Crack Man with a K.
36:18
And of course, the name of the podcast, Wise Guys, like wise, par- pardon me, Wise Cracks, uh, Wise Cracks, which he, uh, does with John Orlando, uh, every week, live here from Circa as well. Yes, we are in Circa.
36:31
We film at Circa, and, uh, have some great guests, great fun. Last, yesterday's podcast was fantastic. Just, uh, you guys, just to, if you wanna, just, you, you can go to, uh, w- just YouTube.
36:43
Sorry, guys, I'm stuttering. YouTube, uh, look for, put, put, put in the search Bill Krackomberger Wager Talk. You find up all my, all my podcasts.
36:52
But yesterday's was really good too, just talking about some great things. It, listen, it's not a sports betting k- podcast. We're a Vegas lifestyle...
36:59
I put my top three restaurants currently, uh, two of which Gil and I went to the last two nights, but it turned into eight restaurants. So we talked about eight of them. You couldn't stop at three. Couldn't stop at two.
37:09
Couldn't stop at three, yeah. Uh, Wise Cracks with John Orlando. Ryan Hyatt, "Tremendous discussion this morning on a Numbers Game between Gil and Bill about the dearth of characters these days in all walks of life.
37:19
Our world has become as bland as Henry Hill's spaghetti in Arizona." [laughs] At the end? "Thanks for the great stories." That's the Goodfellas. At the end of the movie, yeah. Ray Liotta. Noodles with ketchup.
37:27
Ray Liotta in Witness, Witness Protection Program. Yes. I said Henry Hill in Goodfellas.
37:32
John Lerner, "Hey, Gil, you're gonna have to ask Jay Cohen next week how much money Crack lent him at the Palm Steakhouse one fun night in 2002." Was that that long ago? Oh, my God, 24 years ago.
37:44
So I used to be part of a, one of the, the, before the internet took off with Twitter, they had these forums on the, on the internet. So, uh, I was, I w- I used to write for a website. RX. TheRX.com. RX, yeah.
37:55
And Jay Cohen Owning World Sports Exchange, wow, that was 24 years ago. My God. So he had a gathering in Las Vegas at the Palm, uh, outside, uh, Caesars in The Forum Shops- Yep... which was the restaurant.
38:07
Still, still there. Yeah. Not as good as it used to be. No. But, so he had a gathering there, and a lot of people showed up, and the bill was, like, seven, 7,500 for us.
38:17
There s- there was, like, 50 people or whatever, you know? And, um, yeah, Jay only brought $5,000. [laughs] So, uh- Had to lend, lend him a few bucks... I don't know why he came to me, but he did. He did.
38:26
Jay came to me and said, "Crack, do you got $2,500? I'll get it b- I'll put it in your account. I'll give it back to you sometime." Whatever he did. Yeah. I don't know what he did, but, uh, yeah, wow, Jonathan.
38:35
I forge- how do you know that? I forgot about that. How do you know that information, John Leary? Jonathan, Jonathan's been around. Yeah. That's right.
38:41
Nah, it's, it's, um, yeah, Jay Cohen from World Sports Exchange on next week here on the show courtesy of Crack. What else were you, uh, what else have you written down over there?
38:50
Uh, just a- Oh, I know what you just said off air... a prediction... off air about the, the dogma I asked you if you know what happened. No.
38:56
'Cause I, I seen William Hill, I seen, I, I seen Caesars said they were doing 10 cent baseball lines. I seen Hard Rock said real, like, true 10 cent baseball lines. This would, this is what should be on those billboards.
39:06
Like, it should be on the billboard. Yeah. Right, right. Break, break at 160, go, go, and then, you know, up to one, uh, minus 160, come back 150.
39:12
So I see, I just came in here, I sat down outside before I came in, and I seen minus 200 on a baseball game, come back 184. And I'm like, "Wait a minute. Since when does, when is Circa doing that?"
39:22
And then I started looking at the lines. Minus 158, come back 148. I said, 'cause they, they break it- So dime, so dime lines are going way high now.
39:31
It, it, the only thing I'm thinking, this is a hypothesis from all these sites, I know Hard Rock just did it, which a big s- and there's more by the, by the way. There's four or five of them.
39:39
Now that I see this one, this is, this is five, I believe. This is, this is- I'm guessing that- Yeah, my only conclusion...
39:44
my only conclusion is the baseball business is being eaten up by those markets you talked about earlier. Well, duh. Yeah. Well, no, well, also just the- But, but I- I mean- Why would Circa do it? They're here.
39:56
Well, you know what?
39:56
They are in other jurisdictions where, where it's, where the, where the, they are legal, you're right, with the prediction markets Well, I don't, I'm, I'm not talking about the prediction market stuff.
40:03
I'm, I'm just, that could be part of it. Okay. I wasn't even referring to that.
40:05
But my, my hypothesis was, well, you just figured out that if you, like, if, if, if dime lines were a dying breed and you killed them more and more every year- Right... and we had one last holdout- Ah... right?
40:19
And then they're- Gotcha... all of a sudden, like, do you finally understand that you're not going to have bettors come and bet baseball anymore? Chris Andrews. Tell him, tell him, "Michael, go on, Michael." Yeah.
40:29
"You, you killed our baseball business." That's right. Yeah, and then they went back to 10 cent lines. Yeah.
40:33
Yeah, no, and, and, uh, you know, it, it's nice to, uh, see that, that the public is getting a little bit better of a shake because more and more you see, uh, casinos and sports books- All-... chopping up our advantages.
40:47
So it's nice to see Circa do that and- All good with five and a half weeks left in the baseball season, might as well. Yeah. Better late than never. Yeah. But maybe th- maybe- Yeah... this is a good sign for next year.
40:55
Maybe. Maybe they, they see it and, and it could be a good sign for next year. Baseball, second half of the season after All-Star Break, very tough to beat.
41:03
Even the groups that tried, I know when I worked for, for, uh, Billy Walters, uh, me and Al in Boston actually at the same time, um, I know that he ventured one season into hockey and one season into baseball, NBA.
41:15
It's so tough, baseball. When I used to do baseball every day- Everyone stops... uh, for Dr. Bob- All-Star usually... the two and three weeks, p- some people say, "Oh, when the rosters expand, it gets hard."
41:24
That was never the problem for me. August w- August, September was never the problem. But when the two or three weeks after the All-Star Game, that's when it was always squirrely. Like, the numbers just go out of whack.
41:36
Right. And I could never really pinpoint why that was. Teams just sort of, I don't know if they eased guys back in. I never really could wrap my arms around. But those, I, I learned to avoid those two, three weeks.
41:47
Right, right, right. Yeah. Uh, killed. I, I just found out about this. I, I, listen, of course I get limited at sports books and, and, and, you know, maybe even thrown off the app.
41:57
They, "We don't want you on the app, only at the counter," whatever it may be. Or they just throw you out altog- now I say throw you out, it means they throw you off the app, but they don't trespass you.
42:05
I just heard, like, and someone, maybe people can confirm, so some of these sports books are trespassing people for betting sports?
42:14
I was like, "Yeah," then they said Churchill Downs and BetRivers, which I heard of BetRivers. They're in all over the country. Todd is at Te- uh, BetRivers all the time in Pittsburgh. Yeah.
42:22
So I heard, but, but they're, they're trespassing people that beat them? And this is multiple people that told me this. Trespass, I mean physically walking you out of the building. Yeah.
42:30
You know, the, you know, yeah, "We want you out of the c- yeah, we, we want you out of here," man. For sports betting. "This guy's trying to win. Get him out of here." Yeah. Wow.
42:35
So I, I heard that and maybe, you know, you can, you could, uh- I'll ask around... you know, someone, someone could tell. Yeah. Uh, influencers. I, I, just a little rant on influencers, how stupid they are, some of them.
42:45
Oh, dude. They are so... I seen an influencer say he bought nine Ferraris off sports betting wins and, and, and how much of a bankroll? He says he has a $500 million bankroll. I said, "Wait a minute. Hold on. Time out."
42:56
F- uh, uh, let's say 50 million. Which sports book is letting you win nine Ferraris and 50 million? However, I, I think, I, I'll say this, they're making so much money because the followers that buy into this- Yes...
43:12
are just stupider than him. So you and I have talked about this in different forms through the years. We will never be able to combat the human instinct of looking at somebody else's a- Nine Ferraris...
43:25
alleged, alleged fame and fortune. Yeah. Could be AI even, yeah. And people get so drunk, amazed by this. And it d- from Vegas Dave to this guy that you're talking about. I talked about that HBO documentary- Sure...
43:38
that, that was, uh, that never got off the ground where I spent the day with a couple influencers. Yep. And the dude was like, "I'm the, I'm the biggest football bettor in the world." Yeah.
43:46
And I was like, "Walk me through that." "Oh, yeah, I just bet a million on the..." "Oh, really? Where'd you bet?" "Oh, they all take it." And he ended up in jail, of course he did, right? But, like- Of course he did...
43:53
people are mesmerized by these types, and no matter how much you and I bring it up- We'll never be able to combat it. No, n- a- absolutely. Yeah Absolutely not. Oh, oh, another thing.
44:04
G- driving home last night, so Nifty told me another story about the l- the, Lynyrd Skynyrd had that plane crash. It, it- Yes... it killed many members, including the, the, the founder. The lead singer.
44:14
Yeah, the founder. Yes. Van Zant. Well, yeah, Van Zant. Yeah. So, uh, Nifty says to me, "You know, that Lynyrd Skynyrd plane, we were all in that, like, m- multiple times.
44:22
And even Frank was like, 'This plane is just no good.'" I was like, "Wait a minute." Really? "Nifty, you never told me this story on air or anything?" Wow, they were in that plane?
44:29
He said, "Yeah, we, we used that plane, uh, a couple times." He said, "That plane was no, we knew it was no good. The plane just had terrible vibrations, ter-" I was like, "Wow, that's unbelievable."
44:39
Yeah, I didn't hear that story. It's a new, new story from Nifty. The, uh- I was like, "Wow"... the, it was Ronnie Van Zant was the- Yeah... lead singer, founder, who was, uh, I think one of two members killed.
44:47
Don't hold me to that. But that was, um, if you watch, like, Lynyrd Skynyrd Behind the Music, they go through it- Sure... in detail. Fantastic.
44:54
But the other thing that, that Nifty said, which is also doubly alarming about that, is one of the things he says about Sinatra was that Sinatra, despite weather, would always want to, would always, you know- Want a book.
45:07
After the plane, "Let's get out of here." Ag- aggressively tell the pilot- Yeah... "Let, I don't care, let's just get out of here." "Fly above the clouds with the helicopter." "Fly above the clouds.
45:12
We'll, we'll get through it." How lucky did he get? No, I mean, it's here's not to happen. He w- he said the pilot said, "It's gonna be a little bit rough and it's raining."
45:18
And he said, "Fly above the clouds," Sinatra said. Yeah. And he got lucky. He got lucky. He got lucky. He got lucky nothing happened.
45:22
But, and then com- combine that with the fact that they had the Lynyrd Skynyrd plane at times. This, with this here. Yeah. Uh, real quick before we go off air. So I used to love the Cirque du Soleil shows. I love...
45:32
That was at The Mirage. The Beatles show was great. Mystère, that's at Treasure Island still. I think it's a must-see for anybody. Really? I love Mystère. I think it's- Never been. Oh, it's fantastic. Perfect.
45:41
We're gonna go then. It's just if you like music and show and, and, and, and just the visual you get. So the show capacity for these shows are down so much that shows are closing.
45:51
They just closed one of the, one of the C- uh, Cirque du Soleil shows. The, the attendance, you mean? The attendance. Oh, wow. So they're down to average, averaging 30, 35% attendance.
46:00
Like, you have to pay multiple performers for the- Wow. I don't know what happened here, but, like, Mystère, Ka, O are the big ones in town. Yeah.
46:08
Mystère is a definite must-see because now that I hear this, you, it, they, they have to be losing money. I don't think Mystère loses money, but, uh, you know, the, the Ka, the stage, it just starts moving.
46:18
Oh, it's awesome. People hanging off of it. I've seen Ka. Oh, you have. You know, they're, they're incredible. Mystère. Uh, so you like that kind of abstract?
46:23
I, I have to wa- when I watch it, I, I find things every time differently. I've seen it many times, so. I haven't been in years. I, I just hope they all don't close. Yeah, wow. I really enjoy those type of shows.
46:32
And, and, uh, but get out there, and when you come to town, see Mystère. And there's some discount tickets on the internet. Bill, we've run out of time. Prop Points is next.
46:39
And Joy from Visa and the Sports Betting Network and our NFL Futures draft later today, 2:00 PM Pacific. Let's go.
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