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Aug 22, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 22, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 22, 2024
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33:47
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:09
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So, from far Canada at the D, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midland in the hizzy on- Yo, yo, yo... on a Thursday.
0:23
Kelly, how you doing, man? You good? Doing good, man. How are you? I'm doing very well. Uh, the show is packed. By the way- Eight-... d- drive time in London, we're here. We just found out from somebody we're driving.
0:32
That's what we just figured out, yeah. Yeah, we just did, we just did the time zone thing. If you're listening on your way home from work in London, we appreciate it as always.
0:38
Did you just do that so they can understand you? Is that what you did? [laughs] No? Uh, [laughs] Dan Weston, I love you out there.
0:44
Uh, okay, on the show today, this is outstanding, not only, uh, unscripted with the crack man, Bill Krackombeinrer. Not only that, but James Salinas joins us momentarily. James Salinas won the Super Contest back in 2015.
0:56
He then, uh, he won over 900,000 United States dollars. I don't know if you know that, Kelly. Over $900,000 winning the Super Contest back in 2015.
1:04
The next year he messed around and finished third, and then two years after that he finished, like, 26th. So he had- What happened?... amazing, amazing run. Fell off a cliff. [laughs] Just, he really fell off a cliff.
1:15
But James is gonna come on, and we're gonna talk to James because, uh, he is... He- you know, w- we have all kinds of different bettors that come on the show and, and, uh, there's so many ways to skin a cat.
1:24
There's a, there's a massive spectrum of sports bettors, and today we're getting kind of, you know, two super successful guys, I'll tell you the second one momentarily here, uh, this hour, and they do things a different way.
1:34
James is primarily a contest player. He doesn't wanna bet anything before the season starts. He doesn't wanna be influenced.
1:41
Uh, and he's doing a podcast with our old friend, and also a former contest, Super Contest winner, Brady Cannon, uh, with our b- with our guy Pritch. Mm-hmm.
1:49
And so they're doing a podcast, uh, specifically designed around contests, and we'll talk to James, and, uh, how that's gonna go for him sharing a contest, uh, entry with those guys. So we'll talk, we'll talk to James.
2:01
And then Dr. Bob will join us. And, you know, we have Dr. Bob on every week during the college football season, um, and I just don't want people to, you know, uh, take, take Bob for granted.
2:13
Bob is one of these guys, 'cause we always poke fun at Bob 'cause he's, you know, he's, he's rigid in terms of s- certain things. Um, but Bob, you know- Pioneer... pioneer. He doesn't like pioneer.
2:23
I called him a pioneer. He doesn't like pioneer, he likes legend. [laughs] That's Bob. Uh, but Bob's gonna join us. Yesterday Bob released his college football season win totals at 12:00 noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific.
2:34
Um, that in the handicapping world is a big deal. Uh, I know pick sellers, right, has become touts, right?
2:42
It's been synonymous, uh, with that word, and people, there's a, there's a community that can't stand touts because most touts, honestly, I mean, the large percentage in the history of sports betting, people who sell picks, are unscrupulous, uh, are poor record keepers and, and on and on.
2:56
Bob is not that, right? Along with, I'd say Right Angle Sports on one side and Dr. Bob on the other are pillars of, uh, of sports, uh, picks through the years and selling picks. But Bob, you know, as, as...
3:07
Uh, 18, 19 years ago, he was featured on CNBC, he was featured on ESPN, and the ESPN piece, y- by the way, it's on, if you ever wanna see it, it, it's available.
3:18
A young Steve Fezzik is t- talking about Bob, uh, with much more hair than he even has now. Uh, a young Elihu Feustel, who we had during Bet Bash on the show, and I've had multiple times, he was on there praising Bob.
3:30
'Cause what Bob did as far back as then is move college football lines when he released. Yesterday when he released his season wins, Kelly, you saw me right after the show. Oh, yeah. He released the pick.
3:41
Let's say it's, uh, Kelly Midland University over seven and a half. Don't bet it more than -105. I go on the screen, if it's plus 107, the second it appears on the phone,
3:50
my, my ability as a human being, if I were another species perhaps this would go better, but as a human being, the am- the quickness with which you have to get to the bet to get it before it moves on Bob's release, it's virtually impossible.
4:05
Uh, so he did that yesterday. He will give us a, a handful, at least four, let's say four season win totals, uh, that he released yesterday on the show.
4:13
And, um, and some other, and one other thing in college football that I wanna talk about that I have not heard in sort of taking in college football information this summer. Okay.
4:21
I have not heard anybody talking about this latest development, which is they are allowing, like they do in the NFL, they are allowing communication systems now in college football. Ah, yes. This is a brand-new thing.
4:34
And I'm curious if Bob has had to adjust his thinking on how many plays does that add to a college football game.
4:42
Can you make a blanket statement about how many plays it adds to a college football game, or is it dependent, which I think is the answer, dependent on which team we're talking about, who's incentivized to actually add plays [laughs] on, on offense?
4:55
'Cause remember, defense gets communication as well. Yeah, app- So we'll do all that with Bob. Apparently it is a, uh, it is an exact copy of the NFL. Yes.
5:01
So ev- everything that goes on in the NFL will be going on in college football this year. Right. 'Cause what, what, uh- No more cards, though, with, like, four q- Well-... you know, four different things?
5:08
You know, some teams may still have cards. I don't know. But w- I mean, the, the image of col- Fistering quarterback holding up the white towels so you can't see the card...
5:14
the, the image of col- and all the symbols that- Right. Yeah... Chip Kelly used. Yeah. The image of college football teams, all 11 guys on the field staring at the sidelines, you know- [laughs]...
5:24
waiting for the play to come in. It's so dumb. [laughs] Like, all of that, if a ch- if a team chooses to, can, can disappear. Yeah, we still got the chain gang. Yes. Still using that. Great.
5:33
Listen, Kelly, there is no more accurate measuring system on planet Earth than chains linked together. [laughs] It's just incredible.
5:42
Uh, all right, uh, let's start with a couple things that happened in a, a couple Rookie of the Year markets in two different sports. Can we talk about baseball first? Let's do it.
5:49
Jackson Merrill is now your favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year.
5:55
Um, Jackson Merrill, who now after another home run yesterday, on the season, I mean, these, these stats for a rookie are just fantastic. 18 homers, 71-... Ribbies, uh, 322, 491, 8 thir- uh, excuse me.
6:08
Yes, a th- a 322, uh, on base percentage. So what is it? 291, 322, 491 slash line, pardon me, for Jackson Merrill.
6:17
And Paul Skeens, look at this, August 1st, um, correct me if I'm wrong, Kelly, we're still in August, right? Yes. Yes, same month. Yes. Same month. So this is exactly three weeks ago, August 1st. This is not a year ago.
6:28
No, three weeks. Paul Skeens, who pitches today by the way for the Pirates, minus 4,200 to win National League Rookie of the Year, and Jackson Merrill was 15 to 1.
6:38
And then Jason Weingarten at some point got on our show and went crazy about this, right? I'm not giving him credit. That's Jason. But he w- he was certainly one of the people who was as angry about this.
6:48
[laughs] Uh, remains angry, and he was angry about multiple things yesterday now that I think about it on the show. Surprised by that. There you go. [laughs] But that's a whole different story.
6:55
I'm sorry, parenthetical aside right there. Now Skeens minus 110, Merrill minus 120. I think Ske- uh, excuse me, that's current, but Merrill is actually a favorite in multiple places now.
7:08
So this is not exactly consensus. Merrill is actually, here we're showing minus 120 on Merrill, Skeens minus 110, but I've seen Merrill as high as minus 145 in some spots.
7:17
Someone even flashed up a minus 175, but I think it was a faraway place. Um, which by the way to me is, okay, easy everybody, right? It's not a, it's not a done deal either.
7:27
Now, if Skeens came out today and had a great performance, it will be fascinating to see how, if there's any swing back. This is, this has moved even since I typed this up this morning. Yeah.
7:37
No, I'm saying this is, this is already outdated. Merrill's minus 150 now at DraftKings. There you go. Paul Skeens plus 120. There, you, you gotta, you got like every second you have to monitor this thing.
7:46
So- I t- I typed those up two hours ago. Um, it's- It's moved in two hours. That's wild. I'm sorry, Kelly, but, uh, it's like you retired two hours ago. You- Graphics useless. I'm done for the day. [laughs] So we'll see.
7:58
Skeens, uh, Skeens on the hill tonight. Uh, Jackson Merrill, though, of course, uh, always on the field, and the, uh, Padres are taking on the, uh, Mets in a four-game set starting tonight in San Diego.
8:07
So it'll be interesting to see how Skeens does. I just wanna say this, this is also just not related exactly to Rookie of the Year, but this is the Pirates this month.
8:16
We show up, you know, we show our monthly standings all the time. By the way, the Diamondbacks have retaken the solo lead for the most wins in the month of August. Um, and we always flash up the top group.
8:26
Like we go about four... Here we go. We go, you know, what's that? Eight teams deep. You see right there, Diamondbacks 14 and 5, followed by the Padres at 13 and 5, and the Dodgers at 13 and 6.
8:36
But the Pirates, Paul Skeens' Pirates, if we had extended this and gone all the way down, uh, they are all the way at the bottom.
8:43
They are 4 and 13, which is a, a game, you know, one in the last column worse than the 4 and 12 White Sox even. But they're, they're 4 and 13 in the month of, uh, in the month of August.
8:53
Do you know what their one run record is in the month of August? This is almost impossible. And I- I'm gonna, I'm gonna go with zero and nine. 0 and 8. Oh, wow.
9:05
They are 0 and 8 in one run games [laughs] in the month of August. Now, if you did the stupid on pace thing, well, I just saw you project it.
9:12
We're not even done with the month of August, but let's say they finished 0 and 8. Six months of the regular season, right? You're an 0 and 48 record in one run games. And it's not even the end of August.
9:20
There's a full week left, so it's, um, you know, more than a week. So it's just this incredible thing, and so we'll see Paul Skeens trying to trump that tonight obviously and not make it a one run loss.
9:29
But I, I just, you know, that, I'm not involved in that Rookie of the Year race. I, I don't believe you are either in terms of Merrill or Skeens. No.
9:37
Um, but shout out to Jason Weingarten, who again proclaimed himself the, has proclaimed himself the, the winningest guest in the history of VSIN, and that would be another one, 'cause he has Merrill at, at, at a pretty high number.
9:48
From be- and he set it up before the season. He said that, he said Colt Cowser in the American League also for Rookie of the Year, he's the favorite. Yeah, I didn't know.
9:54
What, what was his number again for that he had before this season? He didn't get the highest. He, he got like, I wanna say 40 to 1 or 30 to 1 or something like that on Merrill. Okay. Yeah, that's what I thought.
10:03
But he's been railing. He's, you know, he's quick to say, "I like Paul Skeens," but he rails against Paul Skeens' candidacy for- Right. [laughs] Right? I mean, you got to bet.
10:09
[laughs] The other, the other one was, uh, you know, NFL Rookie of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I hope that, I hope that we made our point on this.
10:16
When Kelly and I did this after the first preseason games, Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy were like 18 to 1 and 20 to 1 respectively.
10:24
Don't hold me exactly to that number, but they were in that range, and we came on here and we said, "Well, I mean, I know J.J.
10:29
McCarthy's not supposed to start week one," but both he and Bo Nix, they're gonna get enough run here the way they played here in the first week of preseason that that's a great number to take on someone who may end up as the starting quarterback.
10:40
Now, J.J. McCarthy obviously, uh, got hurt, is out for the year, so that goes by the wayside.
10:45
But Bo Nix yesterday announced as the starting quarterback, and we saw this coming with his performance in the preseason, the first two games.
10:52
Bo Nix is your starting quarterback in Denver, so you have Caleb, Jayden, and now Bo. Three rookies getting the starting nods.
10:59
Uh, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Nix for the Bears, uh, Skins, and, uh, Broncos respectively. Bo Nix now 10 to 1. Still far longer. Caleb Williams plus 135 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
11:11
Jayden Daniels down to plus 475. Bo Nix still 10 to 1. Would you still bet him at 10 to 1 even though we recommended it, you know, a couple weeks back at double that? No. No.
11:21
No, I, I, no, I- Just 'cause you're not a Broncos guy. Well, yeah, I mean, I mean that, but then the number. You know? Yeah. I think that was the time to bet. Yeah. Well, it's like Jason said about his Jackson Merrill.
11:30
"No, you should've listened to me then." Well, we could say that too, right? Um, but anyway, big moves in both markets.
11:35
Um, one flips to Jackson Merrill being the favorite, and Bo Nix in this case being cut in half as he is named the starter. Uh, we'll come back. James Salinas, former Super Contest winner in the house next.
11:47
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSIN, the sports betting network. If you missed episode one of Circus Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 million, you can watch it now at vsin.com.
12:05
Five-part docuseries takes you inside the high-stakes world of the annual Circa Survivor contest.
12:09
Follow the contestants as they make all or nothing picks over the 2023 NFL season and go behind the scenes of the world's largest legal betting contest.
12:16
Several VSiN hosts make appearances along the way to offer their advice, and you can watch episodes two through five once you get through number one next week, Monday through Thursday, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific at vsin.com, YouTube TV, as well as a live broadcast on X.
12:30
Take your pick there. Go to vsin.com/survivor for details or to watch episode one. And again, a really great job done by, uh, Steven Dolansky and James Farrell on the production side of that.
12:43
Can't wait to talk to Crack later how they, uh, how they edited m- me and Crack talking- That was hilarious... at each other. Yeah, [laughs] that was hilarious. So Bill, what do you say?
12:50
We'll see, uh, what Bill has to say. I, I wonder if Bill's watching. I assume Bill has. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he won the Super Contest.
12:56
That's the, uh, the Westgate Super Contest back in 2015, where he, uh, got himself north of $900,000 in cash. The next year, he finished third. Two years after that, he finished 26th.
13:09
Uh, when VSiN first started, this is all a little lesser-known thing, back in 2017, we had a, uh, NCAA March Madness contest initially then. He won that. James Salinas, everybody, @roundingagain on Twitter.
13:24
How you doing, man? Hey, good to be back. Hey, I think from that basketball contest, I still love that format. The f- What was the format?
13:30
So, so the format was, you know, it's, it's not one of those where you just circle every team and get to pick the winner at the end of the thing. Brackets, right?
13:36
It, it was brack- Well, so this was- Not, not brackets, in other words. Not brackets. Yeah. I mean, they were in the bracket, but it was by the spread, so it was against the spread. So each round- Oh...
13:44
you'd get, so the first round, you had the Thursday and the Friday games, and you picked those against the number, and then they'd reset on Saturday, Sunday, right? And then the same thing come Sweet 16. Okay.
13:53
And et cetera, all the way down. So it was an ATS college basketball contest. I loved it. I don't know why anybody doesn't do it. 'Cause you wanna win it again. That's why you wanna... [laughs] Uh, okay.
14:03
The, the beauty of, of this is, and having you always is, and I like to say, with the, we have a spectrum of handicappers, right? We have the most analytic. Bob's coming up. Dr. Bob's coming up.
14:12
The most math-based, um, mathematical model/technical analysis way to handicap football games.
14:18
Then you have the, you know, on the other end of the spectrum, you have smoke and mirrors guys who are like, "Uh, on Thursdays, when the barom- when the barometric pressure is whatever, I do this," right?
14:26
Uh, you are less a week-to-week bettor. You're not betting games. You're not pre-flopping anything here before the season. You love a contest specifically.
14:36
Can you talk about why it is, again, and I teased this, why it is that you want no part of any season-long bets whatsoever?
14:43
Well, think about how, what, what bet am I gonna make on a season future, whether it's, it's season win totals, division winners, conference winners, Super Bowl winners.
14:52
What bet, how much am I going to have to risk to be able to get the return on investment that the contests pay? And for me, thinking about,
15:01
all right, uh, there, you're gonna have inherent biases, whether we're on a team or we're against a team, and not only for that team. So let's, let's pick a team.
15:09
Uh, it's the Chicago Bears, and they're gonna w- they're gonna win the North, okay? Whatever that number is.
15:15
Well, not only are you rooting for the Bears to win each and every week, but you're also rooting for those teams within the division to lose, so you can win your bet.
15:22
I know others can do that, and they can put that in the back of their mind. For someone like me, I have a harder time doing that when I have an investment already in a certain team or a conference, anything like that.
15:31
So I look at it this way. I don't want any distractions. I don't wanna have any kind of biases going into the contest, 'cause no bet I'm gonna make is gonna pay out what these contests pay.
15:39
I think that last point is a great one, too, 'cause there's g- inevitably, inevitably gonna be people listening to this who are like, "Oh, come on, James. If you had a season long, we do it all the time."
15:47
And then, you know, week six, I don't, I'm not even thinking about my... But you know what your limitations are. Right. You know how your brain works, and everybody should stick to the process that works best for them.
15:57
About that process, can you take us through a week of how you ended up, well, you know, you obviously you get your five picks by the end of the week, but what's your, how does your week start? How does it evolve?
16:09
Usually I don't start anything until the lines come out. So I don't wanna see anything. I don't wanna start to look at opening lines or anything like that.
16:15
I know there's players that'll look for the, the stale numbers, 'cause we know they're static numbers, whether you're playing in Circa on Thursdays or the Westgate on Wednesdays, that's when those numbers come out.
16:24
But I don't wanna, uh, same kind of thing. I don't wanna have a preconceived notion of what I think the number is. I'm not a guy that, that makes numbers.
16:30
I let these guys over here have to put the work in to make those numbers. I decide whether I wanna bet into it or not. And, and I think for a contest, it's the same kind of approach for me.
16:38
So really don't start looking at it until the numbers come out, so w- either Wednesday or Thursday, depending on the contest. And then it comes down to practice reports, injury reports. I go back and I'm watching games.
16:49
Uh, and I think that a lot of it for me is situational, but I'm watching games. Like, I have to see these teams. I don't know what the numbers are. I don't know what the statistics are.
16:58
It doesn't really matter to me, because when you're talking about football, it's such a small sample size. Baseball, I understand. It's 162 games. Now, in the NFL, there's 17 games.
17:06
You're gonna tell me in week four, based on these numbers, that's how I wanna approach these games? And it's all, it's all kind of circumstantial, too, because it depends on the quality of their opponents.
17:14
So I stay away from that type of handicapping. So just to clarify, so you're not doing any kind of guessing lines type of thing at the beginning of the week- No... where you have what you believe.
17:22
You're not doing any of that. No. You're just waiting for the lines to come out. Okay. But that's still very early in the week. You said something, injury reports.
17:28
People are familiar with injury reports, but you always bring that up. You throw it in, and it sort of, I don't wanna let it gloss by. You say practice reports. Explain to people what that is.
17:36
Yeah, that's the bigger piece, 'cause now injury reports are just, you're either questionable or you're out. Used to be probable, questionable, doubtful, or out.
17:43
Now it's, they, they've given such a gray area to it to where everybody... I mean, hell, remember when Belichick was out there, the entire roster for the Patriots were questionable. That's right.
17:51
[laughs] So, so you have to do more digging. You have to go in.
17:54
You gotta find beat writers, and they will, guys that are at practice now, they only have open practice for X amount of time during those Thursday and Friday practices.
18:01
But you'll get a sense if you're following those guys to see- All right. So and so might be questionable, but all he was is on the side stretching today. Right. That was it. So he was on the bike.
18:11
He didn't actually get on the field. So you really have to dig into those practice reports, and then you have to anticipate, are these guys actually going to play on Sunday?
18:18
Especially because the deadlines for these contests, at least out here in Las Vegas, are on Saturday to put the picks in. And are they impactful to begin with, right?
18:25
Some guys, if they're out, you probably don't care- Right... if they're out.
18:27
By the way, and the practice report is a s- is a list, but beyond the beat writers, the practice report is a, a list that comes out, what, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and it tells you limited, full practice- Yes...
18:37
out of practice, that kind of thing, and, and through the week. So by Friday, this is one of the things that all the sports media, and we'll even raise our hands, right?
18:46
W- none, nobody does an outstanding job, let's put it that way, none of us, myself included, to say, "Oh, these two key offensive linemen-" That's it... "were at ex- were, were out or limited practice today on a Friday.
19:00
Keep an eye on that because if those two guys don't go, oh man, that's a big deal." Well, that's where you gotta know the depth of the offensive line for that particular team.
19:08
So who are the, who are the backup guards for the, for... Are they rookies? Uh, do they have experience? Are they veterans? That kind of thing. So knowing the depth, and that's usually where I'm looking at.
19:16
I'm looking at the trenches first, offense, defensive line, but also in the secondary, depending on your matchup.
19:20
So if you got a team that slings the ball all over the place and you've got, let's say you've, you've got your nickel corner probably not gonna play, and you have a, a, a, even one of the safeties coming out, that's something to keep an e- at least for me, that's something I keep an eye on.
19:31
And you're watching game film every play of every game? Uh, I, well, I, I will be again. So that I, I had in the past. That was the key to your run there. That, that, absolutely. Absolutely.
19:42
So I'm going back and watching. 'Cause it's, it's hard. You have, at, at any given time, like every Sunday you have like nine games going or 10 games going- Sure... at one time.
19:50
So I've got the quad box and I'm trying to keep an eye on those games, uh, but it's hard to stay on top of it, so you have to go back.
19:57
And there was something that I really didn't feel like I got a, a good handle on the, the Bears-Packers game. I'm gonna go back later that following week and go watch it again. All right.
20:04
And this is your process, and the proof is in the pudding. Again, won 900-plus thousand winning the Super Contest back in 2015, finished third the following year. Um, now you're doing a podcast.
20:15
You did this at VSiN with Brady before, right? Explain the podcast that you're doing. Yeah.
20:20
So we used to do it with Brady, used to do it with Pritch, where it was, we'd do the, the, for Circa Millions, Circa Survivor, we'd do the release.
20:27
So here's on Saturday nights, here's all the consensus plays and that type of thing. And so I was always kicking around.
20:32
There's not really a specific show that talks about the contest prior to the contest selections actually going in. So that's kind of where we've landed is for myself and Brady, who's won a Super Contest with his team.
20:43
Brady, Brady Cannon- Brady... who won, who won it with Sansu C back in the day. And then bringing Mike Pritchard on board, former first-round pick. He's, you know, he, he's somebody that can bring a player's perspective.
20:51
So if something happens in a locker room, we can, we can really touch on how does that impact teams going forward. What's the name of the podcast and when does it come out every week?
20:59
It's going to be f- it's real simple. It's really clever. Yeah. You know? Yeah. [laughs] Football Con- [laughs] Football Contest Show. So- The Football Contest Show. But it's really focused on the Las Vegas contest.
21:10
Yeah. So it's going to be the Westgate. We will have an entry in the Westgate Super Contest. We will have an entry in the Circa Millions. All right. And we're also gonna do the Survivor- Oh...
21:17
even though Survivor for me is challenging because- What do you... Brady refused to do Survivor all these years. Now he's doing it? Well, I mean, look at the numbers back here. I mean, it's- I, I am aware...
21:25
it's doubled, it's doubled what we're seeing in the Millions. And so- I am aware...
21:28
we, we know it's a captive audience with folks that are just playing in the contest, but we, we had to do, uh, thinking about it, we have to do it.
21:34
But I think for me that's gonna be the challenge is anytime the numbers come out, the first thing I'm looking at is I'm looking at dogs and which dogs who I think are gonna win outright, they, which is kind of the complete opposite approach for the, the Survivor.
21:45
I can see how it messes with like con- like handicapping contest people like yourself, how the Survivor is that- Yeah... sort of, uh, reverse thinking. Last thing. You're, you're not doing it solo.
21:55
You're doing a combined- Yes... entry with, with Brady Cannon and with Mike Pritchard. Do you have any idea how challenging that is?
22:02
Not talking about with those two guys, 'cause they're the best, but with anybody when you're combined with somebody. You know, I think that's gonna be, for me, I've always done it solo, so- Right...
22:09
uh, it's not gonna be an autocratic approach for me to be able to say, "These are my five and this is what we're rolling with, and suck it up and deal with it."
22:15
We have to be able to come to that approach, and I think that's probably another piece of the content that will be interesting is so many folks come out and they're, these entries have groups and teams- Yeah...
22:23
and we'll be working through that process of how do we come to our consensus five or our Sur- our Survivor or Westgate as a team. James, that's gonna be your biggest challenge, my friend. Yeah.
22:33
Week six-and-a-half, Kelly, uh, over, under before they start punching each other. Over. Like three of the nicest dudes on the planet. [laughs] They are the nicest guys in the world. But James, thank you.
22:43
James Salinas, everybody. Dr. Bob on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game.
22:59
Gil Alexander, Kelly Perdiz, we're at Bar Canada here at the D. Bar Canada, The Barrage here at downtown Las Vegas. You excited for sushi tonight, Kelly? You excited? Hoo, hoo, hoo. Let's go.
23:08
24 hours till the big sushi reveal. Can't wait. Kelly, Matt Brown, Mike Somish, and I headed down there. Just gave them an address. They're all getting blindfolded and put in the trunk. [laughs] Same on the way home.
23:18
Ah, but that, that part I'm a little, uh, sad about. We needed to, uh, do a- [laughs] I don't know what. We should've all like met here or something and taken a car down there or something. I don't know. Eh.
23:28
I'll give Somish a ride back. Ladies and gentlemen, I, uh, talked about him a couple segments ago. He is a true pioneer in this business, though he hates the word pioneer 'cause he said it makes him sound old.
23:38
But the truth is, again, um, as far back as 20-plus years ago, um, and certainly 18 and 19, it was da- 18, 19 years ago, it was documented both on CNBC and on ESPN in big pieces.
23:51
Uh, Bob Stoll has been moving markets in college football for just that long, and we are privileged to still have him here on the air with us. Uh, I had the pleasure of working with him.
24:02
I did baseball for him for a few years, uh, back last decade. It's the great Dr. Bob, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Bobby, how you doing? Hey, I'm good, buddy. How are you? I'm good. Does it...
24:13
Before we get to your, uh, your season wins here, and by the way, it was wonderful seeing all the markets move upon release, and man, were they moving quick yesterday when you were releasing them.
24:22
About 12 or 13 you released yesterday? Um, does that- Uh, 13. Yeah. Thirteen. Does that still... Like, are you... You don't take that for granted, do you? Like, that, does that still amaze you? Uh,
24:35
you know, it's funny, I'm, I'm 55 and 24 lifetime on, on win totals. It, it, it's, it's ridiculous, you know, ridiculous. Um, but, um, you know, I've done over 2,000 of these things over the years, and I've, you know...
24:52
So I have a big spreadsheet with every predicted, you know, every team going back fifteen plus years with their predicted wins, you know, and, you know, what the market was and whether the team went over or under.
25:04
And the, the, the relationship between my prediction and the results, you know, on all 2,000 plus teams over the years, it, it boggles my mind that it's, it's been as, as good as it, as it's been.
25:18
Um, so yeah, I just keep them. This year, you know, every year I leave some teams off that qualify, you know, that should, you know, like, should be a play based on, you know, h- the past results.
25:28
And I remember a couple of years ago, I had, I went 11 and 0, and the ones I left off were, were, were 14 and 4 or something [chuckles] like that. Yeah. Uh, last year I was 5 and 3, but the ones I left off were 5 and 1.
25:40
So this year I was like, "I'm just gonna go every one that qualifies, I'm just gonna throw it out there." That's why I have 13, it's the most I've ever had, because the ones I leave off are winning.
25:48
So, uh, you know, so I'm trying to be conservative and not have so many, but this year I just went with it. I mean- You, you remember what, what... You remember what the late John Kras used to tell you?
25:57
"Play them all, Bob. Play them all." Remember that? Well, he goes- Yeah... he goes, "You're a better handicapper than you are a bettor." [laughs] This is what he said. That's right. Uh, well- Yeah, 'cause I just...
26:06
I, I'm so conservative 'cause I'm just like, "Well, how can I have this, this much of an edge on this? No." And I... And it turns out I do.
26:13
It's been 15 years of win totals and, uh, you know, obviously they've been great, so. All right.
26:17
Well, let's, let's start with them because I want to get two in here before the first break, 'cause I know you like to be thorough. Let us begin with, uh, want to begin with USC? Uh, yeah. That, that'd be fine.
26:29
You know, I, I like USC this year. I think they're underrated for a couple reasons. Uh, I went over seven and a half wins. Uh, it was minus 110 when I released it. I still think it's around mostly minus 130 or so.
26:40
I think up to 135 or minus 140, there's still value good enough to bet on the over there.
26:46
Um, I think there's a little bit the perception that losing Caleb Williams, uh, you know, everybody's like, "Ah, they lost Caleb Williams. He's the number one overall draft pick." I don't think it's that big of a deal.
26:57
I mean, Williams is certainly talented. He played at an elite level, both Oklahoma and at USC under Lincoln Riley.
27:03
Um, but his 8.0 yards per pass play, which was two and a half yards per pass play better than what an average quarterback would have done against the same schedule of defenses, placed him seventh in the nation
27:16
in compensated passing. But that's the second worst performance. He's the second worst quarterback of any Lincoln Riley quarterback.
27:26
So there's only been one Lincoln Riley quarterback that's been worse than Williams, and that was Spencer Rattler, and we all know Spencer Rattler was not very good at South, South Carolina when he left Oklahoma.
27:37
Um, so Williams, as good as his passing numbers were, he's the second worst quarterback that Lincoln Riley has ever had, and you might remember the other ones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, uh, Jalen Hurts.
27:49
Well, Jalen Hurts was the only one who had actually done anything before coming to Lincoln Riley, before coming to Oklahoma.
27:57
Baker Mayfield was a decent quarterback at Texas Tech before he left and then became a Heisman Trophy candidate. Kyler Murray struggled.
28:05
Didn't even crack the lineup at Texas A&M before he went to Oklahoma and, and Lincoln Riley's system made him great.
28:11
I'm not saying that Williams isn't talented, but there have been less talented guys that won Heisman trophies before him and had better numbers than he did last year.
28:20
So I don't think that Miller Moth is gonna have a problem as far as the passing game goes.
28:26
In fact, in the bowl game last year, he averaged 11.3 yards per pass play against a good Louisville defense, which is, which is better than what you would have projected Williams to do.
28:35
So, uh, I don't think the passing is gonna be a problem. You know, the, the biggest problem with that, with, with the passing game is losing Taj Washington, the wide receiver.
28:43
I mean, he averaged 18 yards a catch and 14.2 yards per target. I, I think it might... I think it was the best in the nation among, among, uh, wide receivers.
28:52
I mean, it's amazing that he got targeted as much as he did and averaged 14.2 yards per target. That is gonna be hard to replace.
28:59
Williams in the passing game is not gonna be hard to replace, given that every quarterback under Riley has been great. Um, the, the rushing stats will be down a little bit without, without Williams.
29:08
So, so they will be worse on offense without Williams. I just don't think it's as much as people think it'll be, and the defense is gonna be so much better. Uh, he brought over DeAntoni Lynn, uh, who was the DC at UCLA.
29:20
UCLA had the seventh best defense in the country based on my numbers last year. The Trojans have the 15th best, uh, personnel based on talent rankings.
29:29
Uh, last year USC was worse, you know, which is barely better than average, like 0.1 yards per play better than average defensively.
29:35
If he gets them c- even close, uh, he doesn't even have to be that close to have their talent level, then USC's defense is gonna be a lot better. I don't think they're gonna be the 15th best defense in the nation.
29:46
I have them ranked 42nd to start the season. That's still a lot better than it was last year, and they're...
29:51
He could be as good as a top 20 or 25 defense given the talent and given Lynn's ability to form a defense that actually works. So I think UC- USC's defense is gonna be, be better.
30:01
The offense isn't gonna fall off as much as the market thinks it will. But I just think they're an underrated team. They've got eight games with at least a 75% chance to win. Um-
30:12
And, uh, uh, you know, a few more toss-up games and, uh, there's not that, there's not any game on the schedule that, oh, they're gonna struggle with this one. You know? And by the way, in the middle of- I-...
30:21
in the middle of you releasing season wins yesterday, you actually stopped in the middle and you said, "Oh, by the way, I gotta give out one game," and it was USC versus LSU. You were responsible for that move. Mm-hmm.
30:31
Yeah, the problem was I had, I, I, I, I was doing win totals and I had LSU under, was another one I did, and then I realized like, "Oh, shoot, I got, I got USC over coming up on my list here.
30:42
I better get this bet out [laughs] before- Yeah... the market goes, 'Huh, he bet USC over and LSU under. I bet there's value on USC.'" And I wanted to grab the six.
30:50
So I was like, "Hmm, I better, uh, I better stop the win totals release and release this USC bet." Yeah, I think LSU's gonna be down a little bit this year.
30:58
Um, you know, uh, uh, people don't realize how good Jayden Daniels was. It's probably the, the most, the, the best season of any quarterback I've ever seen.
31:09
Uh, not only did he average 10.3 yards per pass play, which is just off the charts good in led the nation, but 1,209 yards rushing on 11.2 yards per run against FBS teams, that's unbelievable.
31:24
The rest of LSU's team averaged 5.0 yards per run. Nussmeier's not a running quarterback. So the difference be- taking out Daniels' running would be worth about five points on its own, just taking out Daniels' running.
31:39
Now, Nussmeier I have rated as the 10th, I have Nussmeier rated going into the season as the 10th best pass attack in the country, LSU. So I think Nussmeier's gonna be fine. He's a good passer.
31:50
I don't think he'll be as good because of the receiving talent that they lost, but I think he'll be better than Daniels was in Daniels' first year in the system.
31:57
So I think Nussmeier's gonna be great, a top 10 quarterback, but that's still another five and a half points worse than the production that Daniels did in the passing game last year.
32:07
You add it up, and I think the LSU offense is gonna be over 10 points worse this year, even though I have them ranked as a, you know, top 15 D offense.
32:16
So I, I think LSU, I think people aren't realizing how special Daniels' season was last year. And I, LSU's defense is gonna be a lot better. New defensive coordinator, they were terrible last year.
32:26
I think they're gonna be a lot better because the talent is there, but the offense is gonna be a lot worse, even though I think they're gonna be a really good offense.
32:34
So I don't think people realize how, how valuable Daniels was. So I think there's value going against LSU too. So, uh, USC plus six, I made it a best bet there. It's four and a half now.
32:43
I still would make it a strong opinion, which is like a half, half unit play at that plus four and a half. That was my, that was my next question. Bob rates them.
32:49
Bob used to do a lot of three-star plays, but Bob is super, super honest when he doesn't have that big of an edge anymore as often.
32:55
So there's not a lot of three stars anymore, but then he does two stars, one stars, and then the strong opinion is, is your way of saying a bit of a lean, correct? Yeah, half, half a unit. Yeah. Okay.
33:06
Just a smaller unit. Half a unit, the current four and a half. All right, Bob, when we come back, uh, we got three more season win totals to do.
33:12
Uh, and I do wanna ask you about the, uh, the advent of communication systems, uh, coming into college football. So I will, so you'll forgive me if I Sandman you off on, on teams, right?
33:21
If I interrupt, if you go three minutes on each- I'll, I'll try to be quicker. [laughs] All right. The economy of words, we will get to it on the other side.
33:27
No, we love the, uh, don't get me wrong, I love the thoroughness, but of course the, uh, the clock is, uh, the looming specter upon us. So Dr. Bob with three more on the other side.
33:36
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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