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Aug 24, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 24, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 24, 2026
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0:53
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:11
Good Monday morning to you. This is Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
1:19
However you're taking us in, we are sincerely grateful. It's Gil Alexander, and that right there, ladies and gentlemen, is the triumphant return- Yes... of Kelly Bedlam in his seat, in his proper seat. Let's go.
1:32
Football's allowed to start now. Allowed to start. I'm back. Yep. Now that you're back? Yep. Football's allowed to start. How was, uh, how was Nash Vegas? Nashville was awesome, by the way. I was, uh- Great town.
1:42
You've been there before. No, no, I never had. Oh. Never been there before. Same. There for what, five, five days? Four or five days? Five days. Uh, it was awesome. Awesome nightlife, awesome music.
1:53
Uh, not just country music. It's just great to see live music everywhere. Yes. It's, uh- Awesome food...
1:59
I went there three times in the span of a year when I was in my one year of country music radio back in the- Mm-hmm... it just fantastic town. Yeah, I, it was. Every which way.
2:06
And, and, and they do it, kind of Vegas does too, right, just so well with, like, the knowing there's gonna be a billion people here- Mm-hmm... and how do we handle it?
2:15
It, it always impresses me when cities do that better than others. It's kind of a perfect place for the NFL Draft when they had it there. Really was, yep. Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. Um, sweet tea abundant- Mm-hmm.
2:24
That's for sure... wherever you go. Yep. You can certainly, uh, uh, order that. Good barbecue, hot chicken, all that stuff. Great place to live. Our buddies, uh, Adam Stanko lives there. He's never looked back.
2:34
Was in, was in the Bay Area for, you know, his whole life. He was like, "I'm Nashville. I'm never leaving." Oh, my only complaint, it was so hot. Like, it was. Oh, meaning humid.
2:43
Yeah, they had, like, a heat wave going on, so it was, like, 105, Gil- Oh, and humidity... with the humidity. I, you, you have never seen someone f- for, from Las Vegas complain about the heat as much- [laughs]...
2:57
in Tennessee in the middle of the summer as I was, that's for sure. Ah. Now ask me, now ask me how my weekend was. How was your weekend, buddy? Uh, what's the quickest you've ever read a book, like a 350-page book?
3:08
That's a great question. Uh, probably some deadline in school back in the [laughs] day, the day before. Well, well I guess there's a sort of deadline of sorts on this show this week. So, um,
3:18
I read the book Odds Man Out, which is Jay Cohen's book that just came out a few months ago.
3:26
Jay Cohen, for those who don't know, not sure if you're aware of who this is, Jay Cohen is one of the three, was one of the three founders of the World Sports Exchange, which so, which so many of our listeners here to this show
3:38
used back in the day, who are of a certain age, used back in the day.
3:41
Really the pioneers of, uh, they w- they weren't the first gambling company online, but they were the one who innovated the most, and they were the revolutionaries.
3:52
Um, Jay, along with his two cohorts, two cohorts, worked in San Francisco at the Pacific Stock Exchange, and they came up with the idea to start this, uh, this book in Antigua. Everything you see now- Mm-hmm...
4:05
from prediction markets- Mm-hmm... and they, just on the, on a basic level. I mean, we've talked, you, you've talked a lot about this before. Yep. Is, is, is from them, right? They did it 30 years ago.
4:15
Um, the, the notion of cash outs which we have now, they, you know, they, they didn't have a cash out button. But you could cash out.
4:22
They did live betting, live betting, um, innovators, uh, in addition to everything you see in prediction markets now. Anyway, I say all this to say this book, Kelly, I didn't do it in one sitting.
4:34
I did it in two sittings, like Saturday and Sunday. 350 pages. I could not put it down, 'cause I was familiar with the story, but I wasn't familiar with the story. Mm-hmm. Right?
4:42
There's so many details in there, and I say all this to say Jay Cohen will be on the show this Thursday with Crack. Fantastic. Courtesy of the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger.
4:50
Uh, Jay Cohen will be on the show on Thursday, and I got a, I got so many questions, and I'm so pumped to have him on. Um- That'll be great. That'll be great chatting... to this day, not allowed on American soil.
5:05
He had something to do with that by renouncing his citizenship, but yeah, he, he is not allowed to come back.
5:10
So we'll have him from, uh, I believe he's in Eastern Europe, and, uh, ask him a bunch of questions, some of which will not be that friendly in terms of how he may take them, right? Hmm.
5:19
Because I have to ask him hard questions as well. Mm-hmm. 'Cause a lot of people, not only if, who listen to this show, not only played at World Sports Exchange, they might've gotten stiffed at World Sports Exchange.
5:29
So we gotta talk about that as well. But it, just a remarkable story. If there was ever a human being railroaded by the confluence of professional sports league and government and law,
5:42
hard-pressed to name someone more than him. Just, just so, I mean, there's so many examples, though, of just, like, and that's one of them, of, of what if this occurred at a different time in history- Yes... right, like?
5:52
Yes, of course, and now he, uh, he's, his, his life sentence is to watch the very- Right... same people who went after him profit in the billions, if not trillions.
6:04
You know, being in bed with, with gambling companies, talking about the leagues, and then of course all these other companies who, uh, yeah, to your point, 30 years later, different ballgame. Mm-hmm.
6:13
I mean, this is the whole thing with, like, you know, you could say this in other industries too, right? Um,
6:18
Napster and w- the revolution of, of online music companies in the early part of the century, and now w- what record companies were, were okay with now that they weren't then, they weren't ready for then.
6:29
I mean, this is, it's, it's an amazing story. God, it's wild, yeah.
6:31
Um, there is breaking news this morning, and I'm not talking about the Astros firing their GM, which is something, with five weeks left in the season, the one game below 500 Astros who are tied for [laughs] the lead of the AL West.
6:44
I am actively rooting for a losing record team to win the AL West. Actually, I'm not, 'cause I have a Rangers hover, so never mind. Take that back. But the big, uh- All right, I am then. [laughs] What's it, what's that?
6:55
[laughs] All right, I am then. Yeah, yeah.
6:57
But the, the, the big breaking news this morning, I don't know how big it is, but the breaking news is, and this is according to Jordan Schultz, who got this first, uh, via the Schultz Report, Schultz_Report on Twitter.
7:07
The Browns are officially naming, Todd Monken has made his decision. Browns are naming Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback per multiple sources. Shedeur Sandal- uh, Shedeur Sanders will be the backup.
7:19
By the way, neither will play in the Browns' third preseason game. Dylan Gabriel will get the start there. But as far as the regular season, Kelly, this is, this is what I, I was saying the whole time, right?
7:30
As, as the odds came down, 'cause this was something you could bet on. Mm-hmm. And it was, it was a curious thing, because we did it several times.
7:38
We did heat checks on, you know, who would be the starting quarterback of teams all throughout the summer, multiple teams.
7:42
And I always said, "It's gonna be Deshaun Watson," because it doesn't make sense to do it the other way. Just from a, from an arc of a season. You don't wanna start the kid,
7:54
have Shedeur mess up, and then go Deshaun Wa- to Deshaun Watson. It's much more comfortable having the, the return of Deshaun Watson from injuries, plural. Mm-hmm. Achilles, shoulder.
8:10
By the way, two Achilles surgeries, not just one, right? Famously here on the show, he said, "Well, there's only one thing a setback on Achilles surgery, that means you re-rupture it," and that was in fact the case.
8:20
Coming off injuries, coming off off-the-field scandal. It's much easier that if he has trouble, to take him off the field and then go with Shedeur. Shedeur can come on with his cape on. Mm-hmm.
8:31
Um, and as far as the preseason performance this past weekend, 'cause Deshaun, you know, you look at the box score. By the way, the Browns have gotten beaten by 24 points two straight weeks.
8:39
I don't, I know preseason- [laughs]... preseason scores don't really matter. That is pretty incredible, though. [laughs] But, but you got beat by the Bears by 24 and, uh, the Bills by 24.
8:48
But in the first week, if you look at the box score, Deshaun's box score is better than Shedeur, but a lot of that was one pass, I think it was to Dylan Sampson, and he went 43 yards with it. Mm-hmm.
9:00
So it wasn't really Deshaun so much. This week, Shedeur kind of outplayed him. Shedeur 9 for 11, 74 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. Deshaun Watson, 5 for 12 for 36 yards, one pick. Not good, Bob. No. Not good.
9:15
[laughs] Not great. Um- I don't know about you, Gil. Yeah. This, this would've been, like you said, we d- we kind of s- saw this coming. Yeah. We thought we did for a long time.
9:25
It, it had, it had gotten down, by the way, betting odds before you continued. Right. Deshaun, we got down to minus 130 as the starter. So, so this was, this is where I was gonna go with this. Oh. For Friday, right?
9:33
Th- before this game, i- if, if you had told me we were sitting here today talking about this, I wouldn't have been shocked at all. But then this game occurs. Deshaun Watson speaks afterward- Oh...
9:45
which was not a good idea. That, that's a whole nother thing. We'll get to that at some point here. Yeah. Uh, he speaks, and these odds plummet.
9:53
I mean, I mean, this becomes basically a coin flip on who's gonna be the week one starter, and then Todd Monken, very like, very aware, I think, that he was going to announce Deshaun Watson today, tried to walk that back a bit.
10:05
Like, just because what guy, one guy said in front of a microphone, isn't gonna affect this decision. I felt, it got way more entertaining to me over the weekend. I was very excited to talk about this this morning.
10:15
What you are referring to, for those who missed it, is that Deshaun got booed. Yeah. First home game, right, of any kind since the injuries.
10:23
Um, got booed, and then had a press conference afterwards where he used the word, that was disrespectful. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Do we have the audio on that? We do. Oh, we do. Here we go.
10:36
I think you guys know, too, and I think the whole world knows, is it, it has nothing to do about the performance. It's, uh, [laughs] it's a little bit personal than that. So I think that's, uh,
10:45
it's a disrespectful thing. Um, so yeah, I mean, I'm gonna keep whatever I feel with me and my family internally on how I feel about that. Um, and yeah, just move on.
10:56
But don't you think, Deshaun, that, that winning and, and playing better would eliminate some of that booing?
11:04
Um, last time I played on this field, I tore my Achilles, and that same fan base, they cheered when I got hurt. So does that, does that have to do with, what does that have to do with anything about performance?
11:18
When a person get hurt, especially for your own city, and they cheer. Does any of that make you regret coming here? No, I don't regret anything in my life.
11:29
You know, I, I think the Lord put me through situations for a reason, so I don't, I don't regret anything. Well, that doesn't sound very good, does it? That does not sound great, Gil.
11:40
[laughs] That sounds like a relationship between a quarterback and a city that is gonna be very hard to ever recover from, if any of us thought there was a chance of that happening still.
11:50
And again, the elephant in the room, not again, 'cause we haven't mentioned it, but the obvious elephant in the room has nothing to do with his performance or the Achilles injury. It has to do from the fact that
12:01
that stems from his massive 2021, 2022... civil lawsuits- Hmm... all, all against him, and allegations brought by over two dozen massage therapists regarding sexual misconduct. And so
12:14
that does not sound like a very healthy relationship, but, uh, in case you missed it, once again, the, uh, official announcement this morning, Deshaun Watson, no surprise to us here on The Numbers Game, Deshaun Watson, for reasons that I think you just from a how you manage a- Yeah...
12:30
season standpoint, is going to be the starter week one for the Cleveland Browns. I think that was always going to be the case, but [laughs] but the relationship is brutal.
12:39
Over under three and a half starts for Deshaun Watson. Ooh, good number. I think so. I think it is right around there. Okay. It's right around there. Under. More Browns news on the other side.
12:51
We'll update August in baseball as well. Next on The Numbers Game. So you're listening to this podcast because you want an edge, but what if I told you you're only halfway there? You've got the mindset.
13:00
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13:29
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13:46
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13:57
Uh, Chuckism1, "Although there's incredible shame in going to a massage parlor to get a happy ending, there is hope. A chance of becoming a quarterback for the Cleveland Browns."
14:04
How about a starting quarterback week one at Jacksonville? Hmm. Uh, Torch D, "The one who put the satin in your panties." So y'all see Brian Daboll tear through three different spittoons up in the booth last night?
14:16
And Salad just had the, uh, the six... Titans under six and a half wins. Oh, I missed all that. Did you see any of that? No, I, I didn't see Daboll. Oh. I, I mean, I had that game on, on a TV on mute.
14:26
I was just laughing because the... I mean, what, the Titans were pretty big favorites, right?
14:31
And they threw out, like, all the starters, and oh my gosh, the Seahawks backups just went through them like Swiss cheese- [laughs]... to start, like, the first quarter.
14:39
I tried wa- I started watching Hard Knocks on people's recommendations. I got through five minutes and then, uh... Yeah, it was like this. Okay, you know my problems with, with Hard Knocks. Am I gonna love Mike McDonald?
14:49
'Cause I already loved Mike McDonald before. I feel like that's all I'm- He's pretty likable... that's all I'm hearing from people is like, "Oh man, Mike McDonald's such a genius." I got di- "He looks so great."
14:57
I got distracted. It's not that I didn't like it, but I, I'll, I'll try it back again. Okay. Yeah. Uh, Brian's Breaking News and Intel. Oh, thank you for this, Brian.
15:03
He, he reminds us it used to be n- the New Haven WTA stop this week. That's right. [laughs] New Haven. Ah. Uh, he says now it's Monterey. And new tourney Philadelphia WTA. When's the Philly WTA tournament?
15:16
I was thinking about that the other day, like, what cities, what big cities don't have the tennis tour? Philly's a good one, yeah. Um, Seattle and Vancouver. Like, nobody... Uh, does it rain too much up there?
15:26
Is that why they don't have it? I don't know. Anyway, thank you, Brian. Boston? Yeah, there is no Boston stop. No, no Boston? [laughs] Not a go- We could come up with a lot of these... no.
15:36
Well, New Haven would be the closest I guess. Yeah, I guess. [laughs] Uh, Gre- Los Angeles, but then you go out to the desert for that, I guess... yeah, you got the fifth major really in, uh, for Indian Wells.
15:45
Ladies and gentlemen, Greg Peterson joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter at gunit_81. Greg, looking good as always in front of a, what would we call that?
15:57
Like, a light blue or a purplish background today? Eh, blue. What's happening, Greg? Not too much. It is blue, by the way. I could go more purple if you'd like. That's okay.
16:06
We always take recommendations, but we went with the blue today. I respect, again, Greg, full coat and tie, also with slacks every appearance on the network. Very much respect that.
16:17
Um, before we get into your fab five of baseball plays, Kelly brought this up, uh, on, off air. You had done something earlier this summer on your Twitter about, like, accepting challenges.
16:31
What w- give us an example of, like, the weirdest challenge you have fulfilled thus far. All right. We are up to 43 running streak challenges. My God. I've been taking one a day.
16:42
Some of them are very, very small, like you have to listen to heavy metal music or something like that, drink this energy drink before you run or something like that.
16:52
Our good friend Toby Marchio does great work over at Covers. I know that he made quite a few appearances on the network over the weekend. He said you need to do your 12 miles inside your own living room.
17:03
[laughs] That has to be the weirdest challenge, because you're sort of, like, taking five steps and it's like, "Oh, I'm at the end of my living room. I now need to turn around."
17:11
So I was just doing, like, very, very little laps around my living room. That has to be the weirdest challenge thus far. Honestly, how did you m- uh, I did see footage of that. How did you mentally get through that?
17:21
Like, how many times- For real [laughs]... did you say to yourself, "I am ridiculous for doing this"? Oh, the entire time. Yeah. The entire, uh, time I'm just there like, "Why am I doing this? What has my life become?"
17:34
[laughs] But you know what? We got the job done, and that's all that matters, and that's why it's a challenge. Because even though you're just there like, "What the heck am I doing?
17:42
I am a ridiculous human being," the challenge had to be completed, and the challenge was completed. And so 12 miles indoors. So normally 12 miles outdoors takes you how long, and then how much longer did this take you?
17:54
Typically I'm down to about nine-minute, 30-second miles even with the seed. That one took me more than two hours for sure, if I remember correctly.
18:02
I don't remember the exact time offhand, but that one was certainly much longer, because you're turning around after, like, every five steps. Did you even sweat on that one? Were you even moist at all?
18:13
Oh, yeah, you get in a nice little bit- That part... of a lather. Like- Lather...
18:16
if you're doing 12 miles, and plus, I- when it comes to inside as well, sometimes the AC is, like, hit or miss when it comes to Las Vegas because you either get it too cold or too hot.
18:27
It's really hard to be able to get it just right in the summertime. It always does have a little bit of a residual effect. So I was still able to get a nice of- nice little bit of a lather.
18:37
Hope, hope my interview with Jay Cohen later this week is this hard-hitting. I, well, I was sitting over here thinking, okay? I'm gonna- Yeah... we're, we're gonna workshop this throughout the show. Uh-huh.
18:45
I haven't, I haven't given my own challenge or quest yet to Greg. Oh. So I'm starting to... I'm over here thinking and just kinda... W- what, what could, what could he look the silliest doing outside?
18:54
Will you have it in five minutes? Yeah, I've got it right now though. Oh. Uh-oh. Say it right now then. I don't know. If, if Wyatt Tomchek can help me out with this, and he...
19:01
I think, I think Greg Peterson in full football pads and jerseys with a football running 12 miles out on the Las Vegas just regular streets would be a really, really good look. Okay. Greg, you accept?
19:14
I need to find the pads and the football first- I'll, I'll provide that... since I don't own them. Yeah, I'll provide that, Greg. All right, to baseball. We need the equipment provided. [laughs] To baseball.
19:23
Uh, Red Sox, Marlins. Red Sox, um, they, I mean, it's, it's, it ain't July, but they're having themselves a, a fine little August as well. They're up there with 13 wins this month as well.
19:34
They're still six games out of the AL East lead, still designs on that, certainly in the playoff picture, uh, on the way, uh, looking out. Marlins l- on the outside looking in in the National League.
19:44
What are you doing with this ballgame in Miami today?
19:47
Yep, I'm gonna be looking at the moneyline here of the Red Sox, especially now that after it was overnight more like minus 130, minus 135, it's now down to minus 120, minus 125. But I also like the over.
19:59
Sandy Alcantara, career low, 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and Raader Suarez is coming off the injured list, hasn't been sharp. Five and a third innings or fewer in each out of his last five starts.
20:09
You do have a Marlins team that really doesn't have a lot of power, especially with Liam Hicks getting traded, but Red Sox lead the big leagues in terms of run creation ever since the All-Star break.
20:18
So like the Red Sox here on the moneyline, and I'm taking that total to the over. All right, uh, Rockies and the Nationals. Uh, neither team going anywhere anytime soon. Rockies are big dogs on the road in DC.
20:33
Yep, but there's at the very least one pitcher that has been really shining, that'd be Kevin Cavalli. He has been very good for the Washington Nationals recently.
20:42
He's got his ERA down to a sub 335, over nine strikeouts per nine innings. Ryan Felder's not that. 1.9 home runs, 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings.
20:51
In his last seven starts, he has 133 innings, and he has given up 33 runs. That is not a place where you want to be.
20:58
These are two bottom bullpens in terms of ERA as well, but the Nationals, they should be able to get a lot more length out of Kevin Cavalli, and I do think that this game is inducive to runs as well.
21:09
So I do like the over, but that's it for the Nationals. I bypassed the moneyline since it's very chalky, minus 170, minus 175. Think that they should be able to win this game by multiple runs.
21:19
Lay the run and a half on the run line, got that at a plus 120. Texas Rangers are one game below 500. You know what that gets them? A tie for first place in the AL West. White Sox still hanging on in the AL Central.
21:30
They still have a three-and-a-half game lead, uh, these days over the Guardians. How are you playing this one, Rangers and White Sox?
21:36
Now, if it was Texas Roadhouse, I would definitely be backing that, but it said it's the Texas Rangers. Not Texas Roadhouse? We can't get odd with that. [laughs] No, I said- Oh, okay... Texas Roadhouse.
21:45
[laughs] That was my joke right there, but I, and I like José Urquidy, the form that he's in right now.
21:51
He's been able to give you two rock-solid starts since being, I should say, just promoted up from the minor league level because he was down there for so long.
21:59
But Cooper Rocker throughout his career, about a 593 ERA away from home. Rangers have really slip- slid with their bullpen. It hasn't been that great.
22:08
Meanwhile, for the White Sox, top 16 in terms of bullpen ERA since July 1st. Additionally, top 10 team in terms of run creation. Like the White Sox here on the moneyline. Okay, Pirates at the Padres.
22:19
We just went over the August numbers. Padres one win behind the Phillies. Padres still, uh, one, one game behind the Phillies in the August numbers, that is.
22:25
Padres still way back in the NL West now that the Dodgers have decided to play good baseball again. And man, did this went to, uh... Did this season sort of...
22:34
I- it hasn't gone in the toilet completely for the Pirates, but man, they had designs on big things, and now it seems like it's slipping away from them. This is a coin flip at Petco today.
22:43
Yeah, the pitching has been hit or miss. They haven't been able to win a Paul Skene start to save their lives. And for Braxton Ashcraft, four-plus runs allowed in five out of his last seven starts.
22:52
Robbie Ray, low-key in his last 11 starts, a sub 2 ERA, has rounded into form. Think that there might be a little bit of regression there, but Pirates have still been very shaky with their bullpen.
23:02
And the Padres, since the All-Star break, averaging about 5.2 runs per game. Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr. have been absolutely tremendous. Like that seven and a half total to the over.
23:13
I do like the Padres as a relatively pick 'em line to the moneyline. Phillies trying to get there now, just three back in the NL East. Uh, and they are, have a nine-game winning streak going on.
23:25
They're going, uh, to Seattle to take on the Mariners. Boy, the Mariners not doing anything. They're still, like, a few games back in the AL West and are just...
23:35
When they lose, man, they have a couple games this [laughs] this month where they're just getting bombed, including this weekend. Mariners are an even money home dog here at T-Mobile.
23:47
To your point, the last two George Kirby losses, they lost by combined score of 41 to two, so- Yeah... not great to say the least there.
23:54
Don't think that you get 19 runs here from the Phillies, but six and a half, too low of a total. Logan Gilbert at home, 491 ERA with about 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings.
24:04
Zach Wheeler, four-plus runs allowed in now three out of his last four starts. Took the Phillies on the moneyline at about a minus 110, and that total to the over of six and a half.
24:12
Red Sox, Marlins over seven and a half. Nats run line versus the Rockies. White Sox over the Rangers. Padres, Pirates over seven and a half. Phillies, Mariners over six and a half. Greg Peterson's fab five.
24:23
Greg, Texas Roadhouse, since you mentioned it, let's do it this weekend. Appreciate it Sounds good. Thank you Greg Peterson, everybody. Coming back, Country Club next on a Numbers Game.
24:33
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Shop now at rainbowauthentics.com and bring home a real piece of the action. How about that, Kelly? You got any apparel? That's awesome. Yeah. A, uh- Good on them.
25:15
We will have Tim and Matt out there on Wednesday, I believe I saw in Bill's email this morning? I believe that is correct, yes. Yeah. So Wednesday night, live from Hawaii. A tradition unlike any other, Greg Peterson.
25:27
[laughs] That's what I was gonna say, a tradition unlike any other. Wes Reynolds joins us now, kind enough for a, uh, to join us for a second segment courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:35
Again, Wes Reynolds one, uh, the number one at the end of Wes Reynolds. Wes, I, I went to break by saying, uh, you have a soccer pick, the rare Wes Reynolds soccer play. What do you have today?
25:46
I do, uh, but you were mentioning Rainbow Authentics. I hope that they sell, like, the old Kelly green Hawaii jerseys. Oh, yeah.
25:51
'Cause that was my favorite Hawaii look, the Hawaii Rainbows, as they were known, uh, when we were young lads. Mm-hmm. Uh, where they had the white helmets and the white pants, Kelly green jerseys.
26:01
So that retro apparel, that'd be a good place to go get it. But, uh, uh, going to the pitch, uh, over there at Craven Cottage, uh, in England, uh, we have Chelsea and Fulham to wrap up, uh, EPL fixture week one.
26:14
And, uh, I'm gonna go with Chelsea on the three-way line. Very small favorite, somewhere minus 105 to minus 110-ish is what I've seen out there in the market.
26:23
Uh, Xabi Alonso, uh, the legendary player, takes over as manager for Chelsea, so, uh, uh, Fulham was, like, kind of a upper level mid-table team last year, so it'll be a tough match. It's on the road, after all.
26:37
But, uh, I like Chelsea here to get a win, to start the, uh, Xabi Alonso era on the right track here. Uh, you know, Chelsea fell off at least a little bit.
26:47
Certainly been, hadn't been as precipitous as Tottenham's, where they were, like, a near bottom team last year, and they looked it on Saturday, by the way, against, uh, up against Brentford.
26:56
But I'm gonna go, I'm, I'm gonna follow the EPL a little bit more this year. Like, I kinda got in and out of soccer over the last few years, but the World Cup happened over the summer, so I was like, "You know what?
27:06
I'm gonna pick maybe one or two leagues to follow," because you can't possibly follow all of them. Mm-hmm.
27:11
Like, if you go to any one of your odd screens, if you go to, like, OddsLogic or Don Best or whatever screen you use, and there's, like, 20 different leagues, it's like, "Oh my God, this is so overwhelming."
27:21
Like, you can't possibly do that. So I'm gonna follow the Premiership, dabbled a little bit this weekend just to kinda scratch the itch. So we'll go Chelsea to get a win in the Alonso era to start it out 1 and 0.
27:33
Yeah, I'm glad you clarified that, because I, I don't remember associating you with the Premier League or soccer in general, but you, you are, you just sort of explained it.
27:41
This is a step up for you, and you, you're paying- Well, I, I have bet it in years past, and then I kinda got out of it. Yeah. You know? A- a- and some- sometimes that happens.
27:49
Like, I, I know a lot of bettors, as do you guys, uh, that get out of baseball a little bit. You know?
27:55
Like, "I'm not really following baseball," or, "I don't have time for it," or, "It's such a grind throughout the spring and the summer," and then they get back into it, so that's kinda what I'm doing here.
28:04
Yeah, I remember Wes hopping- Yeah, a little bit... hopping in and out over the years. I could, I could relate to the baseball thing, man. Yeah.
28:10
I mean, there were, there were summers where I spent so, an inordinate amount of time just in front of a screen watching baseball and betting baseball, and I remember even thinking at that time, "This is not a proper way to spend my life.
28:23
This is not a proper way to spend your time on earth." And so I, I don't miss that. Yeah. But, and, and you do.
28:27
You shift into, you, you, you handle baseball differently, uh, as we have on this show with the, with the numbers. Not everybody can be Mark Borchardt and grind that 24/7, 365. I, it's amazing.
28:37
I'm like, "How do you do it?" 'Cause I like baseball too- Yeah... but it's like, it even gets too much for me. I'm like, "Oh my God." So [laughs] you gotta follow all the transactions and all of that.
28:46
Yeah, though speaking of which, you do have one baseball play for us today. I do, and you know what? Let's enthusiastically back a team that lost 19 to 2 yesterday. [laughs] Yeah.
28:56
That being the Seattle Mariners, as they got absolutely bombed by the Cubs, uh, out there at T-Mobile Park.
29:02
But I'm gonna go with them today, 'cause you're getting a team now that's arguably the hottest team in baseball, right? The Philadelphia Phillies, they've won nine in a row. They were down four-nothing.
29:11
It cost me a wager, actually, yesterday. I gotta talk about the losers too. Had the under in Philly and St. Louis, uh, four-nothing.
29:18
Uh, Riley O'Brien gives up the lead-off double, then gets two outs, and then six runs later, blows the [laughs] save. Riley O'Brien's been terrific for the Cards this year.
29:29
And the Phillies get a win, continue that streak. Now you gotta go all the way across the country with no rest. It's Zach Wheeler on the mound.
29:35
Zach Wheeler usually is Steady Eddie too, always gives you six innings, but Zach Wheeler has been a little iffy if you look at the numbers in, in his last few starts. He's really been getting in jams.
29:45
It's been difficulty for him to get 18 outs. Usually it's, like, easy. It's just a n- it's just an average night's work. But he's going out there, facing Logan Gilbert with Seattle.
29:55
Seattle, by the way, did not really use a ton, even though they used four relievers.
30:00
They used their back-end relievers yesterday, because they didn't change the game, and, and, uh, Dan Wilson actually did something smart, which is sometimes rare when, how he manages his, uh, pitching staff.
30:10
But he used his back-end relievers yesterday as they were getting bombed by the Cubs. So relatively fresh bullpen considering you don't have a day off, so, uh, I'm going with the Seattle Mariners.
30:21
I saw I think as high as, like, plus 108. Uh, I think they end the Phillies' streak tonight at nine wins. Uh, the AL West, I mentioned earlier, every team in the AL West has a losing record.
30:30
Every team in the AL West has a negative run differential. The Seattle Mariners' run differential on the season is minus 61. Trivia question for both of you.
30:40
Do you know what the run differential is in the month of August? Season long run differential, -61. August run differential? -92. -62. Oh, man. Wow. Yeah.
30:52
They've been a big over team, too, this month, uh, uh, surprisingly enough, 'cause, 'cause that's kind of a, a pitcher friendly ballpark they play in up at T-Mobile Park, and that surprised me.
31:02
I was kind of looking, scrolling down that this morning. I think it was Jon Ewing at BetMGM that, that keeps track of that, that they've been, like a major over team this month, which really surprised me.
31:12
All right, I'm gonna ask you a couple football questions, both college and pro here. Same sort of question, um, and I'll ask it this way.
31:19
In both college and pro, let's start with college, what is the team, what do you think is the most outlying team that gets the furthest in the college football playoff this year? And I'll ask the same thing for the NFL.
31:31
What is the, what is the NFL team that is not among the usual suspects that you think s- that gets the furthest in the NFL playoffs, either AFC or NFC? That's a, that's a good question. Uh, I, I'll start with college.
31:45
Uh, and, and you know, this is sure to go awry because it was just like last year when they had a ton of expectations.
31:51
They were, like third or fourth in the country in the polls, and they end up firing their coach mid-season. I'm gonna say Penn State.
31:58
I think that they're gonna be the team that gets that fourth Big Ten spot because we look at the Big Three, it sounds absurd to say the Big Three is Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana.
32:07
[laughs] And not Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State like it had been for about two and a half decades. But I think Penn State gets that fourth spot. I like what they have.
32:17
I, I like the fact that they bring in Matt Campbell from Iowa State, who wasn't the first choice, but may end up being the best choice.
32:23
24 transfers come in from O- Iowa State, so it's like the James Madison and Kurt Signetti pipeline to Indiana kind of on steroids, right?
32:31
Uh, so they're bringing a team that, by the way, the core of that team that they bring in won 11 games two years ago and made the Big 12 title game.
32:39
So Penn State is a team maybe, I think, that not only gets in kind of at the back end, but could win that first weekend. Uh, but, but I think ultimately, I don't think you're gonna get, like some Cinderella.
32:50
It's gonna be, you know, Notre Dame, Oregon, Indiana, uh, uh, Georgia. It's gonna be, I think, those that are going the deepest. But I do think Penn State maybe can win a game getting to the, uh, playoff.
33:01
And then in the NFL, N- NF- NFL is hard because the team that I picked for the Super Bowl was the Houston Texans, and now they have like nobody at receiver.
33:12
[laughs] Now they're trying to search the, uh, the waiver wire just to get some bodies out there for C.J. Stroud to throw to. So I'm going to say...
33:24
And that, that is a very hard question because, uh- I'll, I'll give you another second, Wes. 'Cause you bring, you bring up Houston. All of a sudden, to me, Gil, they've become the buzziest team of the off season.
33:32
Oh, for sure. Wes, Wes is right about the wide receiver situation, but the amount of people that I respect, too. It's not just the amount of people in general.
33:39
The amount of people that I respect that I've heard say the Houston Texans, division, AFC, Super Bowl, what... I, it's become a little mind-blowing.
33:48
They are definitely, at least in terms of anecdotally on this show, the Texans have gotten more love than I think any other team this off season. Let us, let us mark that down. Mm-hmm.
33:57
For, for the, for the NFC, I guess I'll say the 49ers, because they're not the favorite, right? Yeah. They're not the favorite in the West this year. Of course, there's Seattle returning, uh, from winning the Super Bowl.
34:07
The Rams, everybody loves the Rams, and for good reason. So I don't wanna say the 49ers are a total off the radar team, like, they're still less than 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, but I like this team.
34:17
If they stay injury free, and we've seen it, guys, the years that they lose a lot of games to injuries, it's a lost season. And then they're healthy. It seems like it's every other year, right?
34:27
With Kyle Shanahan's bunch, every other year they're healthy. And when they're healthy, they're still one of the better teams in the league.
34:33
And, uh, T- George Kittle got removed from the, uh, PUP list yesterday, so he's back, so that certainly helps, uh, Brock Purdy and their fortunes. Uh, I like the 49ers this year.
34:43
I, I think that they kinda have lower expectations and might sneak up on, uh, some of these elite teams. I like both of those answers. Uh, both those answers, 'cause they're not, they're not outlandish, and they're...
34:54
They, they qualify. Judges accept both because the, neither is considered to be top tier, um, Penn State nor the Niners.
35:01
Though Niners fans will disagree with that, but yes, a, a notch below the Seahawks and the Rams consensus-wise. By the way, you brought up Michigan at one point, dude.
35:08
This has nothing to do with, uh, football here, Wes, but did you hear? A first semester freshman pass/fail no longer grades. What do you think about that? [laughs] Gotta keep the players eligible, I guess. Uh, so, uh...
35:21
That's the whole student body. I don't think I would've made it through- Yes... the first year at Florida State. Oh, no. That would be ugly. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it. Thank you.
35:29
The great Wes Reynolds, [clears throat] pardon me, right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:33
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35:51
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36:02
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36:11
Start for as little as $9.99, or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. And the man who guides the, uh, guides the ship, steers the ship?
36:26
What do you wanna call it? Sure. He does both. Shepherds along all the, all our betting guides and so much on the website is our managing editor, Adam Burke, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
36:36
You can follow him on Twitter @skatingtripods. Adam, good morning to you, sir. How we doing, boys? Happy to have that NFL 2.0 guide out a week from today. So, uh, season's getting closer.
36:47
College football, we got eight games this weekend, so, uh, a lot of good things going on over at vsyn.com right now. I am told we have homework. Is that correct? We have homework. That's right. You do. Yeah. Okay.
36:56
Yes, sir. Homework. Um- By Thursday night. We have, uh, we have a Pat McAfee show on the screen here randomly.
37:03
We have all kinds of stuff, but one of them, uh, closest to us is the Mac- was the McAfee show, and they just showed, Adam, the worst QBR, the worst total QBR between the years 2022 to 2024 amongst qualified quarterbacks.
37:17
Uh, the worst was Will Levis, the third worst was Zach Wilson, and ensconced right in between them was Deshaun Watson, your Cleveland Browns starting quarterback week number one.
37:28
You do support that decision though, correct? I mean, I... There was no good decision to make, right? I mean, neither one of these guys are NFL-level, level quarterbacks. Dylan Gabriel barely played in the preseason.
37:43
I would've started Jalen Green personally, just 'cause why not? Go ahead and see what he's got. Um, but look, I mean, this was going to be the decision all along.
37:51
They can't just release the guy because the salary cap hit next year is- Yep... extraordinarily high. I think it's like $87 million or something like that if they were to release him now.
38:02
They do have the opportunity to release him after the season at a discounted rate, so that's probably what they're gonna end up doing. Um, but honestly, look, I mean, he starts two games on the road.
38:11
If he's terrible, they'll go to Shedeur for the home opener. If he's okay, he'll probably get booed off the field in Cleveland. So
38:18
whatever, but this was really the only decision that they could make to try and justify, you know, what has been a sunken cost for basically three, four seasons already. Agree with all.
38:29
Not a, not a word, not a lie spoken in there. All of the above on Deshaun Watson. It was always gonna happen. Salary cap implications also make that necessary probably at the end of the year.
38:40
Goodbye, Deshaun, and then does he end up with another team after that is a whole nother story. Um, give me your, uh, give me your Cleveland Browns take on the season, though. What do you think?
38:50
Well, again, I mean, you know, it's, uh, it's one of those things where I like about, you know, 48, 49, 50 or so players on the 53-man roster. Mm-hmm. Uh, but the two quarterbacks are two of those guys that I don't like.
39:02
So, you know, this is a team that's probably going to be good enough to stumble their way into some victories, hopefully not take themselves out of the top five on the '27 draft, but I mean, look, they rebuilt the skill positions on the fly, right?
39:15
The young guys that they drafted look really, really good. Harold Fannin is a matchup nightmare, who they took last year in the draft.
39:21
Uh, we'll see what Quinshon Judkins looks like coming off of the injury, but I mean, the offensive line's not bad. The defense has got a bunch of dudes still, even without Myles Garrett.
39:30
It's a really good football team outside of the most important position on the field. So they'll probably go 6-11, something like that, maybe 5-12.
39:40
Um, I just hope that, you know, again, they don't, uh, they don't go 7-10 or something like that and screw themselves out of a top five pick.
39:47
[laughs] Total, uh, season win total is five and a half, over slightly juiced on the Browns at minus 130. All right, you have a trio of baseball plays for us. Let's get those in. What do you got first?
39:59
Yeah, so, uh, Rockies and Nationals here today.
40:01
I mean, uh, you know, the Rockies getting swept by my Guardians over the weekend and, you know, now they're out on the road, starting off a road trip, but they're taking on a Nationals team that went just one and eight on their nine-game road trip.
40:13
So they're struggling a bit. They're definitely having a hard time without James Wood in that lineup. He's just such a, you know, prolific power bat, a guy who walks, a guy who pitchers really have to worry about.
40:23
So their offense has slumped a little bit without him, but Cade Cavalli has been really, really good here of late. 29 strikeouts in his last three starts, 21 strikeouts in his last two starts.
40:35
Had a really good start at Coors Field against this Rockies team last month.
40:39
Uh, I'm not laying the big number with the Nationals here today, but I think one of the more interesting props in this game is for Cade Cavalli to pick up the win in this one.
40:48
Plus 109 is the number at DraftKings this morning. He's a guy that's gone at least six innings in eight straight starts, went eight innings in one of them as well.
40:56
Um, you know, he's got, I think, four wins, uh, four or five wins out of those eight starts. So, you know, the bullpen is rested for the Nationals.
41:05
Again, coming off of a bad road trip, I think they want to erase some of those bad tastes in their mouths now that they're back at home.
41:11
So I'll take Cade Cavalli to get the win here tonight for the Nationals, plus 109 in that pitcher player prop market. Five weeks left in the Major League Baseball season. It's amazing to say this.
41:20
Rangers at White Sox has playoff implications abounding.
41:23
White Sox only three and a half above your Guardians [laughs] now in the AL Central, and the Rangers, as we mentioned, tied for first in the AL West with a game under.500 record.
41:34
How are you playing the Rangers at the White Sox today? Yeah, what an interesting, uh, situation there in the, in the West. I mean, the Mariners just keep getting completely blown out- It's amazing...
41:45
it feels like on a nightly basis. Houston just parted ways with their GM, you know, Dana Brown. So, you know, just kind of a dumpster fire there in the division as a whole.
41:54
Uh, what I like today in this game between the Ra- Rangers and the White Sox, I'm gonna fade Kumar Rocker in this one, and I'm gonna take the White Sox first five team total over two and a half at plus money, in the plus 110, plus 115 range.
42:07
Rocker's not very good against lefties. The White Sox are gonna throw seven left-handed batters at him, and most of those guys have some power. So it doesn't really take much, you know, to get over two and a half here.
42:16
You hit a two-run homer, a solo homer. Maybe you get a three-pointer, you know, the old, uh, the Earl Weaver. You know, I'd love to see one of those. So I think that's definitely a possibility here tonight.
42:26
Rocker's a guy really struggling in the second half. Slugging percentage is up 64 points from where it was in the first half. Uh, just a guy who I'm just not a big believer in.
42:36
Walk rate around 11% against lefties, so I'm looking to fade him. Uh, maybe the White...
42:42
Maybe the Rangers are able to, you know, do something offensively themselves, so I'll avoid kind of playing the game, 'cause I don't know what José Urquidy's gonna give you for the White Sox, but I think the White Sox offense is successful tonight.
42:53
So first five team total over two and a half for me for Chicago there on the, on the south side. Man, people had a lot of hope for the Pirates, especially Pirates fans this year.
43:02
It looks like it ain't gonna happen here with five weeks left in the season. The post All-Star break swoon. Robbie Ray taking the hill for the Padres are doing the exact opposite of the Pirates.
43:12
They are surging here post All-Star break. How are you playing this? Yeah, so this is one, you know, where you kinda really see the impact that the starting pitcher has on the line.
43:21
I mean, Braxton Ashcraft has been terrific throughout the course of this season. Really, really good in his last two starts as well.
43:27
But the Pirates aren't hitting, and the Pirates specifically aren't hitting against left-handed pitching. They're 26th in the month of August against lefties in weighted on-base average.
43:37
Um, you know, this is a team that's also fifth in plate appearances in that split. So this isn't, like, small sample size or anything like that. They're just not performing.
43:44
And, and that's really not a big surprise because most of their best hitters all season long have been left-handed sticks, and they're not doing much against lefties right now. And while Robbie Ray is Robbie Ray, right?
43:56
He's probably gonna have five strikeouts and four walks over five and a third or something like that. You know, he's a guy that, uh, had success, you know, at Oracle Park.
44:04
His ERA is about a run and a half almost, lower than some of his other run estimators. Um, yeah, there are concerns with that, but I think it's a pretty good lineup for him to face here today.
44:15
And the other thing is this: I mean, is Ashcraft better than Ray? Absolutely. But the Padres offense is better.
44:22
And I get this Padres bullpen in what's probably gonna be a pretty close game at, you know, slight underdog price. I have to take that.
44:30
You know, Mason Miller didn't pitch yesterday, pitched the two prior days, so he should be good today. All their leverage arms are available. I think the Padres are worth it. Uh, you know, in the minus 102 range.
44:40
You know, we're kind of a short dog at DraftKings this morning. We'll see how this line kinda plays out throughout the course of the day.
44:44
But anytime I'm getting a reasonable number with this Padres bullpen in a game that, you know, could be close in the late innings, I'll take that shot. And again, they have the better offense here as well.
44:55
What does your, what does your instinct tell you right now in the American League playoffs, in the, the flat Earth American League? Right now, i- if I just said, what, what's your hunch once, once the postseason field...
45:06
We don't know who's gonna be in it ultimately, who the six teams are going to be, but what's your hunch in terms of the cream rising in October in the American League? It's, um...
45:18
Man, that's such a hard question to answer because do the Yankees get Aaron Judge back at some point? They do. Right? Let's say they do. I mean, he adds such a different dynamic to their offense.
45:27
Now, of course, he's been not very good in the playoffs throughout the course of his career, so people may kinda downplay his return if it happens, but I mean, the dude's a home run threat every time he walks up to the plate, and that's the big thing about the playoffs.
45:39
The run environment changes dramatically, and it's all about hitting for power, and the Yankees still have the ability to do that. Um, I, I don't really know about the Rays.
45:49
I mean, obviously their pitching in a short series is gonna be a lot to contend with, but I don't know how good that offense actually is. Boston has some offensive upside.
45:58
Chicago can hit a few home runs, but their pitching staff isn't great. Um, not a Guardians believer right now, despite them sweeping the Rockies over the weekend.
46:07
In the West, I mean, Seattle's the team with the highest ceiling, but they're not doing anything right now. So I don't know.
46:12
I mean, I, I know that Tampa Bay and New York really stand out, but I don't think anybody in the AL is really that good. Interesting. Tampa Bay and New...
46:20
I think it's New York and Boston, I think would be how I would answer that. But it is just, man, you're right. Aaron, well, Aaron Judge is coming back. When exactly is he coming back? Any day now. Yankees. There we go.
46:31
Let's get this g- let's get this going. Only five weeks left. Thank you, Adam. Appreciate it. Take care, guys.
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