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Aug 25, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 25, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 25, 2026
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37:36
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Transcript
0:00
Ladies and gentlemen, it's been a long time. Actually, let me, let me read this tweet to sort of transition into him.
0:04
This is from Grant betting XFactors who says, uh, "Ryan Kramer," who was on before you with, uh, By the Books, who I alluded to, "graduated from VaTech. Homer bias alert blaring," he said.
0:13
"ACC does s- does seem wide open," however. Um, yeah, Ryan Kramer from the Sports Gambling Podcast. He says not only is Virginia Tech gonna, gonna win the ACC, he says Virginia Tech is winning it all.
0:24
They're gonna get through the gauntlet of the playoff. Uh, we haven't spoken to this gentleman in, uh, a long time. I won't say a year, but it's been a while.
0:30
He is the proprietor over there at CollegeFootballNews.com, a trove of college football information.
0:36
It is the great Peter Futak, who you can follow on Twitter at Pete Futak, F-I-U, that's Florida International University, T-A-K. What's happening, Pete?
0:46
Oh, you threw me into a stress craze here just hearing about the idea of having to update a print magazine or a print- Yeah... publication or any pre... It's, it's g- he's doing the Lord's work, man.
0:56
It is, this is the weirdest year ever to try to come up with a preview because not just that everything's changing on the fly, but you have teams, like how do you, how do you really handicap a team that has like 65 new players from the transfer portal on it?
1:14
You know, we're, we're getting this right off the gate where, uh, North Carolina, TCU, and Ireland, well, last year they had a whole new roster of players under Bill Belichick.
1:24
He didn't like those guys, so they're all gone, and in comes a new 50-plus players to, to try to make this happen. How, how do you have any clue how you make this all fit together?
1:35
So i- it's, everyone's flying by the seat of their pants in th- this new fun world of college football. And it, and it's up to the minute right now.
1:41
Now guys who have suited up for preseason games in the NFL are headed back to college. Uh, we saw it with Da'Shawn Wright yesterday. I, I just...
1:49
So I guess the broad question for you, just macro as a college football guy is, do you embrace all of this or are you one of the get-off-my-lawn kind of guys who are like, "I shouldn't say it like that," because that biases it?
1:59
Or, or do you- No... long for the good old days, I guess I should say? No, it's, you know, it's, people make way too much of it. I do think it should be, you know, put the college back in college football.
2:10
It's, it is weird when you have, you know, 44-year-old, you know, men playing football on a college campus and things like that. But, you know, look, it, it's, for the game itself, it's better.
2:20
And, uh, it, everyone has to remember, like I had a friend who's not really into college football who, uh, was looking at like some picture of like the old Miami team that had, uh, Jim Kelly and Bernie Kosar and Vince Testaverde.
2:31
He's like, "Wow, these are like the greatest passers ever." And they all, you know, they made like, like 50% of their throws for the Hurricanes.
2:37
I mean, like the, the quarterback play is at the best level in the history of the sport now, 'cause everyone has one. And the actual level of play overall and the games themselves have been boosted up.
2:49
So the game's better, but it just, it loses that college feel because at this point, if NFL guys are coming back, it, I get it.
2:58
Some people are kind of like, "Well, why am I watching this when I can just watch the NFL and watch the, the guys who are actually really good at this?" Uh, but for the most part, it's a positive and you know what?
3:08
Once the ball gets kicked off, nobody cares. Odds to win the national championship. By the way, cicadas or crickets, we're not sure who's making the, uh, the guest appearance here. Yeah. Wow.
3:16
We're, we had a ruling on that. Uh, odds to win the national championship, Ohio State, Notre Dame, uh, co- short shots, if you will, at 6 to 1.
3:24
Texas is plus 650, Oregon plus 750, Georgia plus 850, and there's Indiana, defending national champions, rounding out the single digits at 9 to 1. Where do the Futak rankings differ from this board?
3:39
You want to talk about changing minute by minute. Uh, Ohio State I think is gonna rip through everybody in the regular season at least.
3:45
They have a, they have a absolutely brutal schedule, but their talent level on offense is so unfair. I mean, the, the... It's Ohio State.
3:55
You know, this is the place, you know, with JSN and Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., and all the great wide receivers.
4:01
This group of wide receivers that they have now might be the best in college football hi- history. Wait, wait till you see Chris Henry's kid, uh, Chris Henry Jr. He's the freshman that's gonna come in. He's, he's next.
4:13
I mean, right next to Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Innis and, you know, now you have Julian Sand throwing to them. I mean, that, that offense, they're gonna let it rip this year.
4:21
So they're gonna rip through everyone, but it's... You know, first of all, can you get to the college football playoff? And then can you do something when you get there?
4:28
So when you're looking, you're asking this when it comes to, uh, you know, who can actually win it. At the moment, it's Oregon's world. I think they're way overdue to get that one extra win.
4:39
Notre Dame has everything in the bag. And don't... Yeah, Indiana's pretty cheap. They've, they're really good.
4:46
The one problem with Indiana is they had absolute perfect health luck last year, and if they get through the college football playoff process, by the time we get to January, they're gonna, that bunch is gonna have played over 30 games of college football, which that's just a lot bef- without, you know, getting through without, uh, a ma- a bunch of major injuries.
5:06
So, uh, there's so many teams that are national championship worthy this year. And so I think it's gonna make for a better year overall because you do have 10 teams that can legitimately win it all.
5:17
Okay, let's, let's go beyond those 10 teams.
5:19
What's the team either via conference championship or maybe they, they don't win their conference in a big c- in a, in a, in a power conference, but you feel like if they get into the playoff, they would be set up to go deep.
5:31
What's, what's the team that is not among the usual suspects that we should be thinking about? So, y- the, the, among that group though, and it is kind of in the usual suspects, but it's down in the mix a little bit-
5:45
I cannot wait to see what LSU does. I know it's a usual suspect, you know, in, in, in general here, but with what Lane Kiffin's doing to bring this thing back, they loaded up. I mean, they...
5:55
I mean, he's ahead of the game here. He's the one who's getting the Daquan Rights. He's the guy who's getting the, the guys back from the NFL. He got the transfers coming over.
6:03
Sam Levitt, the former quarterback of Arizona State's bas- has apparently been lights out so far running the Lane Kiffin offense. Now, you have Lane Kiffin unleashed, because what he did at Ole Miss was amazing.
6:15
You don't... It, it's impossible to win at Ole Miss. They... That's not a powerhouse college football program.
6:21
Now you have Lane Kiffin and that offense and that talent bound by nothing, and they went to the portal and they got just about everybody.
6:28
I think it's gonna be a little rocky to start, but I think that you get them in at 10 and 2, let them go, that's the team I'm really looking out for. If they could just get there, uh-oh. The...
6:38
By that time of the season when everything's fully gelled, I think that's the, the kind of the team.
6:42
Again, not really outside a, not a wacky call 'cause it's LSU, but they're probably a, a better value overall, and they're outside of the top five or six. Not buying Alabama this year?
6:53
No, I, I don't s- Alabama, Florida State, kind of in the same boat for me, where here are two superpowers that should be great. Uh, Clemson a little bit as well. I don't see the talent. I mean, they just...
7:04
There was a time when you could look at Alabama's roster and say, "Okay, there's 10 first-rounders." They might be there. I mean, they're gonna be very, very good, uh, but this is a three-loss schedule at, at least.
7:15
It, it's a, it, it... They don't... They still have not proven that they have a running game yet.
7:20
The defense has to be better, and now they're starting new quarterbacks, they're trying to get new parts in the system, and the rest of the SEC has stepped up.
7:27
I mean, the rest of the SEC is very good, and then even the SEC overall is not as good as the top-end Big Ten teams of Ohio State, uh, Oregon, Indiana at the moment, I guess, too.
7:38
Uh, but I'm not buying in that they're gonna get in and do anything major.
7:42
But it's Alabama, and if, if at some point this Kalen DeBoer offense that was at Washington and Fresno State kicks in with a defense, then yeah, it might be pretty interesting.
7:52
But no, I'm not seeing it compared to the rest of the SEC this year. Last 30 seconds, last question.
7:56
Um, Alabama doesn't count for this, but among the top seven, eight teams that we mentioned at the top here, the one where you could see it going awry the quickest? Texas.
8:08
Uh, because if they lose to Ohio State right away, you look at the rest of their schedule, there's not... It's not gonna be easy to finish out without just, without two more losses. They're just...
8:18
Uh, Oklahoma's fantastic. I mean, they could lose, you know, just about any of these SEC games. So if they don't beat Ohio State right away, that's a nine and three team that's gonna be on the outside looking in.
8:30
Pete Fiutak in nature, the emperor of CollegeFootballNews.com. Thank you. No cicadas from here on, I promise. [laughs] I don't think it's a cicada year, but we'll check on that. Thank you, Pete. Appreciate it. Bye, guys.
8:41
I said that earlier to Pete off air. He's like, "Every year's a cicada year." All this 17-year stuff, it's a myth. Drew Dincic on the other side. It's the Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
8:52
You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
8:58
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
9:06
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Drew Dincic joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
9:22
He is the co-host of not one, but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet The Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher. You can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper.
9:33
And hopefully not only, uh, this appearance today, but hopefully we can get in a US Open pod when you're here in Vegas this Friday. When are you coming to Vegas, man? Thursday? Yeah. Uh, be out there Thursday morning.
9:44
Yeah, flying Thursday morning. Uh, and what a great story, uh, on the Hunter Gattis baseball. That's- Uh, you can put a dollar amount- Yes... on that future. [laughs] It's like, yeah.
9:54
You can put a dollar amount on that 65 to one that was not, uh, not realized. You cannot put a price on that baseball. You cannot. Well said. Priceless. This is what I got out of this? A baseball from Hunter Gattis?
10:06
[laughs] Hey, bad... We, we've been doing this long enough. Bad beat stories are, they're, they're- Yeah... they're valuable, man. They, they usually don't come- You know?... with a signed baseball.
10:15
Yeah, that's for sure. They sure don't. That is great. Yeah. Good on him. Good on him.
10:17
I'll let you know the next time I run into, uh, Tennis Hardo out in Vegas when we're, uh, when we're out there for contest sign up that doesn't bring up Ons Jabeur 33 to one, 40 to one- [laughs] That's right...
10:26
whatever the price was. Like- Oh, man... you know, there's, there's, uh- So many... there's, there's bad beats that will live in infamy among our, uh, our people. That's our people. That's r- that's correct.
10:35
We have a question. Uh, this... I read this question earlier, but I'll throw it to you 'cause he wants you to chime in on it as well. Mm-hmm.
10:41
And it's Shrek McPhee who says, "What would Carlitos' number, Carlos Alcaraz's number, be for the US Open if he had played in Cincy, and what will the number- Mm... be after round two if he looks like himself?" Ooh.
10:54
Uh, if he had played in Cincy, he'd probably be more like plus 125. Uh, we're assuming that, like, he played in Cincy and didn't embarrass himself. That's correct. Um- Mm-hmm... you know, the, there are...
11:06
I have mixed feelings about what I saw [laughs] in the practice, uh, in the practice round th- that he played against, uh, um, it, I c- you know, not a pushover by any stretch of the imagination.
11:17
Daniel, uh, Merida, I forget his, uh, full Spanish name. Merida Aguilar. But Me- Yes. Uh-huh... Merida Aguilar. Mm-hmm. Uh, he's not a pushover. Like, that guy- No... can play.
11:26
Uh, and he's actually had a pretty good, uh, hard court, uh, season so far, for whatever it's worth. But, um, uh, if that's the quality we're gonna get from Alcaraz, then, uh, I think 185 is just right.
11:36
Um, if, uh, he comes out and he looks like the Alcaraz we saw at the start of last year's US Open, who was very dangerous, then, uh, I would say that he's gonna shorten to probably right around pick him. Um, I would...
11:48
Th- the, the deal with Alcaraz is He sustained a wrist injury that it, that, that word with tennis players strikes fear in the heart of many of us who have been doing this for a long time.
12:01
Um, wrist injury derailed one of my favorite ever players to watch and bet on, Juan Martín del Potro. Mm-hmm. Uh, derailed, uh, Dominic Thiem.
12:10
Uh, and in general, uh, when it, you pair it with what makes Alcaraz a special tennis player is very, very scary.
12:17
Alcaraz's, um, forehand and really just his, his ability, his shot-making ability, in large part is fueled by his ability to generate topspin, which comes from wrist action.
12:29
Um, and he didn't tear a ligament in his wrist. He didn't need surgery. He didn't go under the knife. This was apparently, like, a wrist sheath in- like, was inflamed and just causing him discomfort.
12:40
Um, I thought the clips we saw of him, uh, like at the World Cup, uh, and just doing promotional stuff throughout the summer, it looked to me like he lost a lot of muscle mass, uh, just because he wasn't working out to the degree that he would be normally for during in t- you know, in play tennis season.
12:57
Um, I haven't seen, uh, s- distinct evidence that he's kind of regained that mass and, uh, in the interim month he's been ramping up for this tournament.
13:05
So I, I think he is likely a, uh, um, a pass, uh, at these type of prices.
13:11
Um, and, uh, I think that opens the door for long shot shopping in the absence of Jannik Sinner, uh, who, uh, we could spend a little bit of time talking about, I suppose. Um, this was, this is...
13:26
I'm, I'm, I'm wearing a loss already be- we haven't even gotten to the draw yet. [laughs] So, uh, some of this is sour grapes, I'll just admit it.
13:35
Um, this was such a soft, uh, you know, uh, s- uh, withdrawal from this tournament. Um- Sure was. Yeah... I find it to, like-- I find it, like, shaping my, like, long-term opinion of him in a way that I wasn't expecting.
13:52
Um- Meaning the fragility? Just generally?
13:55
Not just the fra- yeah, the, the fragility or just, like, the, you know, like, the, like, the idea that, uh, he would have basically doctors and physios all kind of come back to him with, uh, "Yeah, everything's fine.
14:07
There's nothing structurally going on. You're fine." And then him electing, "Nah, I'm just not feeling right." Yeah. You know? Yeah, I thought it was a little weird too. To me, that's a really, really surprising...
14:18
And I, you know, the, the idea that he's gonna go through this season where Alcaraz missed two, maybe, you know, two and a half if you, if you wanna c- count him as a half participant in this US Open.
14:29
He missed two and a half, uh, Slams, and you only get Wimbledon out of it. Um, you know, it's, it's surprising. Uh, it's, it's confusing.
14:39
It feels, it feels very, very soft, honestly, and I don't, I don't know that, um, you know, I don't, I don't know that I'm gonna feel any better about this, uh, if it turns out that, you know, this decision ultimately provides him with a better and a healthier 2027 campaign.
14:56
But, uh, to me, this feels like he's just, he doesn't wanna, wanna deal with the heat. He doesn't wanna travel to the US.
15:02
He doesn't want to, for whatever reason, really put himself in harm's way, and I, I just don't understand.
15:08
That, that mentality is so foreign in the, you know, in the, um, shadow of, uh, you know, the Federer, Nadal, Djokovic era we've just been through. It's, it's, uh, it's tough for me to really rationalize.
15:19
Such a great-- It's such a great call at the end there because if you, if anybody has seen the Nadal docuseries on Netflix, what that- Yeah...
15:26
dude went through in his career injury-wise, and then you see these guys just casually sort of, you know, beg out of these, uh, tournaments, pretty unbelievable.
15:35
Dude, Nadal dug himself out of an 0-2 hole against Medvedev in the Australian Open final with, like, a tear in his abdomen wall. Like, [laughs] this- It's just incredible...
15:45
uh, the, yeah, the, uh, uh, Djokovic, like, the, the, the, um, the physical stuff that these guys have put themselves through to get to where they've gotten in terms of accumulated championships is, is amazing.
15:57
And Sinner bowing out 'cause he's not feeling up to it, it just f- it, it's a v- leaving a very distasteful- Did you-... uh, vibe for me. So Did you already make a bet on him?
16:08
Is that why the bitterness is, is ratcheted up? Yeah. [laughs] Oh, okay. That's what I was getting at. Yeah. I, I thought I was, uh, I thought... I mean, I, I, I wasn't fully staked.
16:16
I was waiting for the Alcaraz yes 'cause I figured that was gonna draw Sinner down into the sub-50s.
16:22
But I had standing orders available to try to scoop it, uh, at, uh, prediction markets, and I caught the, uh, I caught the, the fall, the, the falling knife of someone- Whoa... with the inside information of, uh- Whoa...
16:35
Sinner was gonna pu- pull out. So that day that it flashed from 60% to 25% or whatever it was, I ended up with a bag of Sinner, and I was like, "Oh, well, uh, this doesn't feel great." [laughs] No.
16:47
So, uh- So who's, so who's- Yeah, it, uh- Who's the bet now then, in your opinion? I think, uh, well, I'm gonna ride with, uh, Felix Auger-Aliassime. Oh, wow. Okay. Uh, 30/1. I think that's a fun one.
16:59
Um, I, I, I could make a case for many of these men who are in the 10/1 and longer range.
17:05
Um, obviously I've had a ton of success betting Rafael Ho- Hodar and Arthur Fils over the balance of 2026, so I have soft spots for both of them.
17:13
But, uh, they're ra- ra- ranked right now where they're gonna need, uh, pretty favorable draws, I think. Um, I'm, I'm cool on Medvedev after last week's disaster.
17:24
Um, I'm cool on, uh, Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe as far as American runners. I'm, I'm a little cool on Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton at price, um, but, uh, this is gonna be a very, very, very strange men's Slam.
17:37
I think Zverev and Alcaraz are both passes at price.
17:40
I think Djokovic is sadly a pass at price, although I really, really wanted to have, like, a strong, "This is it, number 25, Djokovic is gonna do this," kind of opinion heading into this tournament.
17:50
It's just, it's, it's not manifesting on on-court performance just yet, so I think it's gonna have to be pass on him. Um, but, uh, FAA at a bomb price I think is gonna be my read. FAA 30/1.
18:03
Uh, Felix Auger-Aliassime has gotten to two Slam semis, never to a Slam final, both at the US Open, including last year. I remember betting on him successfully- Mm... a few times on the way to the semis last year.
18:15
Mark Bortz joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. He is still in Montana.
18:19
Speaking of Montana Uh, he hasn't been back in the desert in over a month, I think it is now He's helping Danny move in, I heard Uh, said he saw a bear or two yesterday on his UTV.
18:28
Marc Borchard at Base Winner joining us now, uh, on the line. How you doing, Marc? I'm doing tremendous. It's, I'm having a great time. Saw a couple bears, uh, over the last two days.
18:39
Went UTV-ing in the Stillwater Forest. It w- it's been incredible. And from a, from a, a betting standpoint, sports betting standpoint, August has been a really good month for me, uh, particularly the last week.
18:50
You know, I, I, I always feel bad when I miss out on a win streak. Uh, I, I think that there was a couple team, I think the Brewers earlier, um, had, had really good wins.
19:01
You, of course, the Red Sox had good win streaks. I've missed out on all of those.
19:04
But Philly, um, I think I was on Philly pretty much every game of that win streak that they had, including the one where they came back from four runs down in the ninth.
19:13
And, and I mean, as a bettor, that's, that's such a good feeling. It's just 'cause you just- Oh... you almost have that money like it's thrown away. "Well, I lost that one."
19:21
And then they come back and it, it makes you feel good.
19:23
But, uh, uh, between, between the results and then the progress that I'm making with the mon- monthly simulation, uh, Monte Carlos, I'm, I'm, I'm just enjoying life right now.
19:32
And, and of course, Philly was my pick earlier, uh, with those monthly simulations, and they're still for me the pick to make right now with, with a little bit of value showing up.
19:42
And, uh, but doing the divisions too, so a lot, lot of stuff, Gil. Sorry, I, I- No, it's great. This- I'm, I'm, I'm high on life, I guess. Yeah This is what, this is what we live for. Your August was my July, man.
19:51
It's just you can't, it's just, you don't want it to end ever. Tennis and baseball for me in July. Uh, what was your number on the Phillies before this month started? It was 11 to one. Nice.
20:02
So- One win lead over- So really good... the Padres right now. And what's interesting, you know, I, I wrote about this last, I think on, maybe on Thursday or Friday.
20:10
It, you know, the Phillies actually had, what it, there was a segment there where they, they kind of went down before that win streak.
20:16
So it, it kind of traces, and what I'm, I'm, I'm building, and this'll be ready for next year I think, is the odds all month for on each day, what the odds are, what my, my projections say.
20:28
And, uh, it's turning into a really cool application. And so, you know, getting it published and stuff is, is a little bit difficult, but like for me, uh, I'm, I'm able to use it and, and write about it and stuff.
20:38
So it's, it's really cool. And, and, uh, you know, it couldn't ha- could, hasn't played, it couldn't have played out any better to date, but you know, there's still a lot of baseball left here.
20:46
Uh, you know, not this month, but not only this month but, but in September as well. Six games left for your Phillies in this month of August. One win lead over the Padres, two win lead over the Red Sox, Cubs, and Rays.
20:58
And you said there's value. If people wanted to jump in now, you still think there's value on the Phillies current price? Yeah. Yeah, I have them, they're at, they're at DK plus 100. I have them at minus 231. Geez.
21:09
One of the things, I do the, I do the monthly division winners and, and this, this one's kind of an interesting one. You know, we've talked about the AL West and like nobody wants to win it.
21:18
Nobody wants to win the month either, Gil.
21:20
You know, Texas is 11 and 11, Houston's 9 and 11, but what's interesting is Texas is minus 165 to win that division this month, and, uh, uh, DK has Houston at, at plus 1300, and I don't think it should be that.
21:34
I think, I think Texas should be minus 114 and Houston should be plus 415. Uh, there's a really good value with, with Houston.
21:41
I, I think Houston's looking pretty good not only, uh, in that division from a monthly standpoint, but in that division from, from the, the winning, winning that division standpoint.
21:52
And, uh, I, that, that was perplexing to me when they, when they, they fired their GM the other day.
21:56
Uh, you know, my ratings have Houston the best hitting team in baseball, and, uh, I don't think that he got enough credit for that. But who knows what, what happens in- internally with those organizations. Who knows?
22:06
And then that's really... And, and of course that's a hard thing to, to model too because is, is it, does it, does it create inner tur- turmoil within the team?
22:15
But from a numbers standpoint, they're showing value, uh, in both spots, Gil. Yeah, Dana Brown was the GM who was fired yesterday. Um, mutual parting as they, as they phrased it. But he was the, he's the guy, right?
22:26
Like the trade deadline, he's one of these dogmatic, "We're always going for it. We're never gonna capitulate at the, uh, trade deadline." He's one of those guys.
22:36
And I wonder if philosophically, you know, here we are now this f- you know, few weeks past the, uh, the trade deadline, the Rangers 66 and 66, the Astros 65 and 66.
22:47
Again, they were tied yesterday, I believe, um, when, when it happened. Maybe just internally they're like, "You know what? This ain't working, buddy, and maybe we should have gone a different direction."
22:55
But in the end, the Astros are very alive for the playoffs because of the, uh, anemic nature of that division, really the anemic nature of the, uh, the league in general in terms of a wild card also wouldn't be out of that picture.
23:05
Um, okay, to your plays today, what did you end up with? Well, this one's an interesting one, and I've been kind of following this team, uh, o- offensively. You know, St.
23:16
Louis for me was a team that I had very low expectations on at the start of the year, but they've, they've really kind of put themselves, although they're, they're probably not gonna make it, they, they actually put themselves into the discussion.
23:28
Uh, but today they face my 151st pitcher. I've got 156 pitchers in there in Chris Bassitt. [laughs] Oh, man. And, uh, all the, the sabermetric numbers on him are, are poor.
23:40
Uh, and, and so I think that what you can do is you can play the first five here, St. Louis team total, uh, over two and a half. And when I betted it, it was at plus 105, so I think that that's a pretty good play.
23:52
Uh, you got a, the team that I've got 15th in baseball, decent offense against a, a pitcher that's, that's really bottom, bottom tier, Gil.
24:00
Any, uh, base winner parlay of the day to make Steve Fezzik's head explode off his body? Absol- absolutely. I've got, you know what? I've got two that I'll give out actually.
24:10
Uh, I've got the Dodgers and Cleveland, uh, and then this, this one kind of went down overnight. I got it at a plus 194, but, uh, if, if you risk one, you're gonna win, uh, 1.77, so it's a plus 177.
24:23
And I talked a little bit about Gavin Williams.
24:25
This hasn't quite played out the way I want it to about being a dark horse for the Cy Young, but if you look at those strikeouts, he's only eight back off of Dy- Dylan Cease in the leader of strikeouts.
24:35
In MLB, and he's facing a team in the Angels. Angels worst BBK, a number that I like, walks divided by strikeouts.
24:44
Uh, they've got the lowest in the league against the second highest pitcher, uh, from a strikeout standpoint, uh, in baseball. So I think Cleveland, uh, minus 132 is good.
24:54
And then this Dodger team, Gil, gosh, you, you [laughs] they're talking about Ohtani coming back to pitch, but you forget about Glasnow. Mm.
25:01
And every time y- you look at the best starting pitching, uh, in baseball and, and, and, uh, to- today I, I think that they should be favored, uh, by almost, uh, minus 200, and they're at minus 149, minus 150-ish.
25:15
Uh, one of the things I like about that, this game too is Freddie Freeman, uh, over his total bases.
25:21
I don't think I've given any, any of these total bases out on the show, but I might as well today 'cause I'm in such a good mood. Over one and a half total bases- [laughs]...
25:27
Freddie Freeman plus 117, and you look at his OPS, uh, he played a lot of game at, at Truist, and, uh, the OPS is, is I think it was like 844, so I'll take that. I'll take that going into, uh, into this game.
25:41
And, and so those, that's the, that's the parlay.
25:43
And then I've been experimenting with these first five over fours, and I've got a parlay for, I got Kansas City, Toronto over four first five, Chicago, Arizona over four first five.
25:54
And all the numbers really kind of back that up, the Sabermetrics- Wow... numbers that I use, Gil. Yeah. Wow. Gil, you got all that? That's a lot. That's a lot. Nope, Danny does. Danny [laughs] Danny's got 'em.
26:04
Um- Try to ask me that question next week... for let's just say first five, St. Louis team total over two and a half plus 105. Yeah. Pirates money line plus 109.
26:13
Cleveland, Dodgers parlay plus 177, and then, uh, some bonus bets right there at the end, which we'll have to get on. I, I, yeah, I forgot to talk, I even forgot to talk about Pittsburgh, but, uh- Yeah...
26:23
you know Skeens, I was looking at his numbers, uh, and he's down a little bit, but he's still pretty elite. He's, uh, I think up to what I have at, uh, my top 20 still, uh, number 17.
26:35
And then one of the things that's interesting about this game is the Pittsburgh bullpen, and this looks at, uh, strikeout percentage, walk rate, ground ball percentage, uh, over I think a, a curated timeframe that I think is, is, is,
26:48
I, I wanna say, I don't wanna say perfect, but it's ideal. And they're number three in baseball, uh, going up against the, the number one bullpen admittedly in the pod- in the Padres.
26:56
But I think, uh, you know, getting a little bit of plus money on that's a, a good idea. Mark, you're the best. Uh, enjoy the outdoors in Montana. The desert will be there when you get back. Ab- absolutely, Gil.
27:07
It's gonna be a two-day drive back home, uh, on Sunday, so I'm not looking forward to that, but- Good... but, uh, I'll be back next week. Yeah. That's right, he has dogs, so they, they drive all the way. Join the family.
27:16
Thank you, Mark. @basewinner, by the way, basewinner.com.
27:25
Uh, we were gonna start off talking, uh, baseball with Jeff Erickson, but why don't we bring in Jeff for, uh, for your, your Coach Long Shot first fired, shall we? Okay. Yeah, sure. Uh, Jeff Erickson joins us now.
27:34
He is of course the co-host- Right... of Prop Points at the top of the hour, which he does each and every Monday through Friday at 10:00 AM Pacific, 1:00 PM Eastern here on the network, which he does with Nick Whalen.
27:43
Jeff joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Jeff, we're, uh, first of all, good morning to you, sir. How are you? You good, yeah? Good morning. Doing well. Good.
27:50
Um, we're- The media tour day for Jeff Erickson, apparently. Yeah. Oh. I copied you on a couple extra tweets. Sorry about that, boys. [laughs] Oh, that's okay. That's okay. Yeah, I enjoyed seeing it.
27:59
Yeah, he's tweeting us about what he's gonna do at home later. He's gonna wash some dishes, you know. [laughs] Um, what, what are you doing? Yep. Yep, exactly. What's the, what's the day filled with today for you?
28:07
I already did a podcast. I don't know if you guys have ever had my good friend Christopher Harris on. If not, you should. He's great.
28:11
Harris Football, uh, did his podcast on five safe players that we could, uh, each, each were drafting and had to define what safe meant and all that.
28:20
That was, uh, that was the start of it today, but I, you know, after you guys, I've got, uh, Prop Points in about 45 minutes. Looking forward to that. Uh, we've got a big draft today.
28:28
It's the Rotowire Stake League- Ooh... where I have a big side bet every year.
28:31
We do a steak dinner with a group of us here at Taylor Steakhouse in LA, and the bottom four teams have to pay for the b- the top four teams, essentially. Although last place has a double share of paying.
28:42
Um, and so this is a big auction. That's a big one. This is a very big league. Who cares about winning a league? You just don't want to be a buyer. Yeah. Right.
28:47
Um, so that, that includes drinks, desserts, appetizers, you name it. Just no doggy bags. You can only eat for yourself. Um, no, it was like stupid $200 bottles of wine or anything like that. But, um- I, I forgot to-...
28:58
that's a big thing. Uh- I love- Yeah... I love like detailed traditions. They have to follow precise rules. It also occurs to me, this is why women will never understand us, things like this, right?
29:08
They just, they're like, "What are you doing with your fake football league? What is this?" It, it, it is, it, it's thi- [laughs] Stuff that gets tougher as you get older is, is- That's right...
29:16
finding time with your male friends, right? That's it. This is a punishment- That's right... and a way to go spend some time with your friends. Wait, I can't leave this hanging. Yeah.
29:22
So, uh, not, not to rehash the podcast that you did, but give us the five safe players that you came up with. So, um, and I try to do different price points there. The, uh, I think Derrick Henry's an obvious one.
29:33
Uh, you just, there's a, you're always gonna be able to get him at the end of the second round. Y- yeah, there's, there's some age concerns, sure, but he's also superhuman. He's also an alien.
29:42
He's different than everybody else. DeVonta Smith on the Eagles, I love clicking on him. Uh, he's not the trendy receiver anymore. He was for about 12 seconds, but then other people passed him by again in ADP.
29:54
Uh, at tight end, it's a sneaky one. Harold Fannin I think is just super safe. Mm. He did this with three bad quarterbacks last year. I don't care that Sean Watson's starting this year.
30:01
He's a good player and should be drafted where he's going, and he, he's at, he's at a very safe price. Uh, you al- there's, and the, my favorite one is Dak Prescott.
30:09
There's always money in the banana stand when it comes to Dak Prescott. You wanna wait on quarterbacks, he's there. You got a floor of 4,000 yards, 30 touchdowns.
30:18
It's just, he's always there as QB 10, and I know I can just click on him, and I know I'm going to be fine. Was that four or five? I counted four. That's four. Okay. Math is hard. Yeah. Um, I [laughs]
30:29
bear with me as I have to remember exactly who I had as the fifth one That's all right.
30:32
But- I, I love that he- As, as you were thinking about that, I will just say that of those four, the only one I was surprised by, because I found myself nodding- Okay...
30:39
to three of those four, I was a little surprised by DeVonta Smith Me too, me too, me too Yeah I'm very interested to see how he does this year with- Yeah...
30:47
well, I don't- Jalen Hurts questions, I guess, although I'm a little bit more confident in him than most too, it seems. But no AJ Brown there is a big deal. Yeah. And how he, how he performs as the guy.
30:58
Jeff, did we, uh, figure out the fifth? Yes, we did. Uh, it's DeVo- uh, i- it's, uh, DeAndre Swift. Uh, he never loved, and never, like, a huge ceiling guy, but- Mm-hmm...
31:08
you know, the Bears running offense is going to be good again. Ben Johnson's fantastic at designing run plays. Um, and Kyle Munoz's already hurt. They didn't bring in any real competition at running back.
31:17
Swift is gonna be a solid guy, and he actually was very efficient last year, too. You know you're getting 30 to 40 catches and around 1,000 rushing yards. I'll take that as my RB2 all the time.
31:26
Not Kelly's favorite Swift, and it's not Taylor Swift, either. Phil Swift, the proprietor of Flex Seal, still Kelly's favorite Swift. Dude, have you seen- People love him... like, the newest commercials? Yes.
31:36
He p- he takes, he takes, like, like, uh- We're gonna take our same old boat, Gil. [laughs] We're gonna punch some holes in it, and we're gonna use the Flex Seal putty.
31:44
Five steel arrows through a boat, and then claims you can Flex Seal them and go haphazardly on the lake. The new Billy Mays. Yeah. Oh, he's amazing. He's amazing. What a role model.
31:53
Which, which is a bridge to Billy Swift. Mariners and Rangers, great- Oh... if we wanna keep on going down this with- Good, good call... boat play here. Like, you- Uh, okay... like you do this professionally.
32:00
W- real q- [laughs] real quick before we get to- Yeah... your baseball plays. We were just going over first NFL coach fired, and I don't know if this is a thing- Okay... that you have thought of.
32:08
Um, but this was a, this is a market that we find, you know, at the terrible, at the expense of someone losing their job, but it's pretty interesting from a gambling perspective.
32:16
For me, the best value on the board that I saw was Shane Steichen of the Colts at 10 to 1. I'm not sure if you have any thoughts. We thought the favorites, though, are correct. Yeah.
32:26
Uh, and I didn't see all the lines for, uh- Can we throw that up on the screen as form?... Steichen obvi- Yeah. Yeah.
32:30
Uh, Steichen's, Steichen's an obvious one, just because the Colts, uh, I, I think they are at a bit of a crossroads. They, they made a big trade last year for, uh, Sauce Gardner.
32:39
They, they gave up their future to try to win now. Yeah. They committed to Dan- to Daniel Jones. I mean, I, I get all that. My guy, Zach Taylor, can't believe he's the dean of the AFC North coaches right now. The dean.
32:49
But he, this is the world we live in. Yeah. Um, but he has to get off to a good start this year. The, the thing working against that is the Bengals never do bold moves- They never do... with coaches in season. Yeah.
32:59
Never, ever do. Uh, yeah, uh, you know, Aaron, uh, Aaron Glenn, we've seen plenty of organizational history. That makes plenty of sense. I like that one. I think that's, that's pretty good. Todd Bowles, I mean,
33:10
you know, the vibes haven't been great with the Bucs. You know?
33:13
I- that's the one thing, and I think he's exactly the type of coach that could mess up, like, a go for it, don't go for it, you know, use your challenge, not use your challenge situation there.
33:22
You know, he, he struggled with that in the past, so I could see that as well. Some of these are kinda crazy, like Campbell, come on. Yeah. Vrabel, Saleh, come on. Ridicu- ridiculous.
33:31
Those, those guys aren't getting fired this year. Yeah. And, and by the way, we were talking about Sirianni, and I was saying there's no way- Mm... you can fire him.
33:37
I will say this, 'cause you brought up the fourth down stuff, like go for it, not go for it. He is the worst. Like, he completely is like, "What will I get the least boos from?
33:46
I'll do this" now it feels like with Sirianni. There's never any, um, method to it, uh, in my opinion. Um, so anyway, if you, if you were... I don't know.
33:53
I don't wanna hold you to a bet here, but w- what looks good to you? Anything here? No? No bet? Uh, I, I, I'd say- Yeah... Steichen, because I don't think- Me too... the Colts are good. Yeah, me too.
34:02
Um, I, I, I think they are in real trouble, and I'm not even buying the whole Daniel Jones is doing every play in camp thing. I mean, he is. I, I'm not disputing that.
34:12
I am not buying that when it comes to when it matters it'll be good. Yeah. I, I, I think that this is gonna be a rough team. That's my guy in this. They lost seven in a row to end last season.
34:22
Okay, to Major League Baseball, you have a couple K props for us. You have a side, you have a total. Let's start with the, uh, strikeout props for us. All right, let's go Aaron Nola to start off with here.
34:32
Uh, first of all, right-handed pitchers strike out more batters in Safeco. All right, I'm gonna call it Safeco. Bear with me here. You know what I'm saying. Uh, in, in T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
34:42
Uh, Nola has been cromulent lately. He's been a guy that's pitched a lot better recently than he has, uh, earlier in the year. He's much better on the road than he is in Citizens Bank Ballpark.
34:52
Uh, he, he's had eight, nine, and eight strikeouts respectively the last three times out. We are paying minus money for the five and a half.
34:58
If you wanna, you know, you know, live dangerously, I too like to live dangerously, go to six and a half, get some plus money. Best, uh, five and a half price I found was minus 120 at Circa.
35:07
Do you, do you do any prediction markets at all, Jeff? At all? I don't. Do you... Oh, yeah, 'cause people are having some- I don't, and I'm behind the curve. I know I'm behind the curve.
35:16
I, I just- No, I only bring it up because- I don't know. I just never got into it...
35:19
I only bring it up because, uh, Joe Peter gave a great talk at BetBash, and he was talking about how he manipulates K prop markets specifically, but also with, with pricing.
35:27
So it's just a whole sidebar heaven of, of that kind of thing. You have, you also have a Jacob deGrom K prop for us today. Yeah, Chicago White Sox.
35:36
Uh, strikeout, uh, uh, first of all, the last 30 games, their strikeout percentage is over, uh, 25%. Against righties it's over 23%. Like, at home it's over 23%. All top 10 figures. Jacob deGrom rolled last time out.
35:50
Health concerns are gone. We're getting that K prop at a pretty nice price. Uh, we're getting, uh, the over six and a half K is at minus 110 at Circa again. Circa's been pretty good on the prices lately.
36:00
Um, I, I like the deGrom over six and a half strikeout prop. All right, the, am I allowed to call them the surging Kansas City Royals? I think that's a, that's an exaggeration. They're not going anywhere.
36:09
But they did, uh, sweep the Tigers. They're at Rogers Centre in Toronto. What are you playing here? Let's say hot, the, uh- Yes... Kansas City Royals there.
36:18
I mean, hey, any time a team has won eight in a row, you gotta classify them such. Yeah. Uh, I, I like the pitching dis, uh, ma- matchup, Lugo versus Scherzer. I think Scherzer is a guy that you can attack.
36:29
I know he's been a little bit better lately than he was earlier this year. Uh, but I'm just gonna keep riding the Royals wave a little bit here, betting against Scherzer and getting plus money to do so.
36:38
Uh, plus 116 over at, I think that was, uh, I, I, I forgot to write the, the bo- oh, it was DraftKings is where I found that one at. Royals, for those scoring at home, eight games out of a playoff position.
36:50
Eight games out of a wild card. And then finally, uh, the Rockies and the Nationals today in DC.
36:56
Yeah, and, uh, any time I get a Nationals game at eight and a half, I have to, I'm a- a- automatically concern, uh, interested there.
37:04
It's not a, uh, Cade Cavalli start, so it doesn't mean we're getting a good Nationals starter. Uh, they're, they've been reliably over all year long, and the Rockies are rolling out a guy making his debut in Mason Adams.
37:13
So, uh, I like Andrew Alvarez, but you also get the Nats bullpen, so let's go with the over on that game. Jeff, thank you so much.
37:20
We'll check you out at Prop Points, top of the hour with Nick, and good luck in your big old draft today as well. All right. Thanks, guys. Jeff Erickson, everybody, at Jeff with a J underscore Erickson.
37:30
He's not one of these Geoffs. No, he's not. No. No confusion there. No confusion at all.
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