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Aug 26, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 26, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 26, 2024
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43:45
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, uh, speaking of NFL, which we'll get to here momentarily, we, uh, we're releasing our updated NFL betting guide tomorrow. How about that? New guide.
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0:59
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Did you have Keegan Bradley, by the way? No. Did not. Nope. But as you know, I'm always happy for Keegan when he- I know you are...
1:11
especially when you're in the playoffs, baby. Yeah. Now he's rolling in, what, four- fourth in starting strokes? Fourth in starting strokes. I might have to throw a few bucks on him this week. He's like 30 to one.
1:20
Yeah, uh, for a certain- What's the prize, $25 million prize? $25 million. I was wondering, they were taking a while to post odds this morning. Got a couple tweets. I, I, I did tweet.
1:29
I'm like, "Where, where the hell is the odds at?" Got a couple tweets about, well, B- McIntyre, Matsuyama, uh, dealing with injuries.
1:36
Maybe there's questions about that, but this is, uh, just PSA, if you're betting golf this week, you just wanna tee it up and hit one shot because it's $550,000 for last place. Good God.
1:48
So just, just tee off and then you can withdraw. 30 dudes, 550 for last place. Yeah. 25 million grand prize for the, for the winner, or as the, uh, LIV golfer say, "Uh, that's adorable."
1:57
[laughs] Mark Borchers joins us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert.
2:02
You can follow him at Basewinner, basewinner.com, and of course, he is, uh, a co-host, if you will, of the Bet US Baseball Show each and every morning. It's Mark Borchers, everybody. How you doing, Mark?
2:12
Courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. I'm, I'm doing great, Gil. It's been a really fun season for me. Uh, it's an interesting season. I, I, I don't think there's, there's ever been...
2:23
Well, maybe there has been, but I can't remember in my 20 years of doing this, roughly, Gil, uh, where the results of like projecting the playoffs and World Series, I think it comes down to the health of, of Tyler Glasnow and, and Yamamoto for the Dodgers.
2:42
And I, I, you know, from what I can ascertain, and I, I don't think it looks very good for Glasnow.
2:48
I mean, he, you know, Roberts is saying he's got a long road back and that tendonitis, I don't know if you've ever dealt with that. That's, I mean, it's cryptic.
2:56
Sometimes, sometimes you can get rid of it and sometimes you can't. So, uh, and then Yamamoto, speaking of cryptic, I, I, I can't find much on him either.
3:04
And so what we have is we have two of the top 10 pitchers, arguably, maybe not even arguably, uh, that we don't know what's gonna happen when they get to the playoffs.
3:13
And I, and I think that that's something for me at least, uh, from a health standpoint, I don't remember this ever with two pitchers that are at that level that have that much of an impact on the playoff situation, Gil.
3:24
Yeah, and as we sit here today, Dodgers have the best record in all of baseball, 78 to 53.
3:30
A one-game lead, if you will, over the Yankees for the best record in baseball, for those who bet that market, and a three-game lead in the NL West over the Arizona Diamondbacks, clinging to a three-game lead.
3:43
So again, you're projecting into the postseason. They still got to, uh, s- solidify their position heading into the postseason with the Diamondbacks and Padres sort of breathing down their neck.
3:53
Yeah, I'm not as bearish as everybody else is.
3:55
I mean, you look at this Dodgers offense, uh, and I have them at 5.38 projected runs, and I think the next offense, I mean, they're so good, Gil, and this is based on last 500 plate appearances.
4:07
I think the next offense, the Yankees are number one, so the Yankees are in 5.47. Uh, but then after the Dodgers, it goes 5.38, uh, run projection, and then 5.01 with the Phillies.
4:18
Uh, but you're talking even with, uh, uh, Buehler and Miller in there instead of Glasnow and Yama will be there, uh, their disparity, the, the run differential, if you will, runs scored minus runs against from a projection standpoint, uh, I've got the Dodgers number one in baseball still.
4:35
So I don't see that happening. You know, it's priced at DraftKings at minus 800. I've got it minus 839. I think that the odds makers are right on as far as that division goes, Gil.
4:43
Excellent use of the '80s jam Yama will be there as well, included in that, uh, paragraph from Mark Borchers. It's such a good song. It's very underrated, Gil, I think. All right, let me, let me throw up this tweet here.
4:53
Let me throw up a couple tweets actually. This is regarding the National League Rookie of the Year. This is from Underdog MLB.
4:59
Uh, "GM Cherington on Paul Skene's," talking about the, uh, the Pirates front office viewpoint as of yesterday. "There is a range of innings we don't want him to go past this season. Could lead to shorter starts."
5:12
Now, we're sitting here on August 26. By the way, this on the same day that Jackson Merrill hits another just absolutely dramatic home run.
5:22
So you've got right now Jackson Merrill with 19 home runs, many of which have been dramatic, impactful late inning home runs, yesterday happening to be the game winner against the Mets.
5:35
Um, and then you've got Paul Skene's who has pitched in a total of 17 games. So 19 homers versus a pitched in 17 full games.
5:43
Right now, Jackson Merrill is the favorite, and he's the biggest favorite he's been the whole way through, right? He's about minus 145. You might even find him a little higher in some spots.
5:54
If you had a vote today, so in other words, we don't know how this Skene's thing is gonna play out. Maybe he has three more starts.
6:01
Maybe he goes the rest of the season, but they're l- but he's limited in the pitch count in each of these games. We don't know. But right at this moment, if you had a vote, who are you voting for, Mark Borchard?
6:12
Oh, I'm voting for Merrill. I think that, like, for me, it comes down... The guy's got to be extra special, uh, from a- a war standpoint.
6:21
Uh, but the fact that, that Merrill plays every day and Skeens doesn't, I mean, that's... I mean, unfortunately, for me, it would be really hard for me to vote for a, a pitcher for Rookie of the Year, Gil. Okay.
6:33
Um, you talk about the Dodgers. You are, you are very bullish on them. Uh, obviously there's the two pitchers that you talked about in Glasnow and Yamamoto. Let me talk about the Yankees for a second.
6:45
So obviously with the Dodgers you have Shohei Ohtani goes 40-40. He's the sixth man to do it. Uh, Canseco, Bonds, uh, A-Rod, Soriano, who did it with the Nattys, and of course, uh, last year Acuna.
6:59
Now Ohtani's the sixth. He does it quicker than anybody. I want to say Canseco was the, was the previous quickest, and that was September 23rd. Like, it wasn't even close to this early.
7:10
So Ohtani could get to 45-45, 50- f- or 50-50. We'll see. And then there's Judge, who hits his 50th and his 51st. He's now on pace to break his AL record of 62. But can I just ask you this about the Yankees?
7:25
Like, when they get in the postseason, this whole thing where guys are pitching to him still, won't that go away if, if- You know, that's a- Go ahead. I'm sorry. Sorry, Gil. Yeah. That's a really...
7:36
'Cause I, I kind of know where you're going with that. Yeah.
7:38
It's a, it's a super good point because I, I don't know if I've ever seen this in my ratings and, you know, well, I don't know, may- maybe you can remember a one-two combination where if you're looking at their base runs or OPS, whatever you're looking at, uh, the, the first two people in Major League Baseball are from the same team, and that's what you get with Judge and Soto.
8:01
Uh, and, and then the disparity between Judge and So- like Judge from, for me, the way I calculate base runs, put the park factor into stuff, he's w- he's a 1.3 runs better from a projection than, than Soto is.
8:13
He's at 955 per game if you had e- everybody was Aaron Judge in the lineup, and then Soto would be 8.15. It's still tremendous. The next guy's, uh, Vlade, uh, uh, Jr. at 7.48.
8:26
So yeah, I mean, you make a good point because you can... in the postseason, and I don't maybe think people put this, uh... you know, think about this. I, hell, I never did.
8:35
Uh, you can, you can pitch around these guys, so, uh, to an extent. I mean, so they're gonna have to get project- production, rather, Gil, from, from the rest of their lineup, which- Yes, they are... you know. Yeah.
8:46
Yeah, yeah. And that is a massive question mark for the, for the Yankees. What'd you land on today, sir? Well, I'm gonna go with the Royals here, and I've kind of flipped the script on me.
8:55
I've, I've, I've been against the Royals pretty much all year, but I, I think that, you know, there's, there's some, some solid things about this team.
9:03
You know, bullpen wise, I think they're still kind of middle of the pack. Offensively, they're, they're middle of the pack. But this starting pitcher, Cole Ragans, is really good.
9:10
I'm gonna have no ragrets betting on him today. You look at his Stuff+, [laughs] 81st percentile Stuff+. Uh, the, the strikeout percentile, uh, last 10 median is 30.6.
9:22
It's the second highest strikeout percentage on the board today. So I'm gonna go first five Kansas City, and it's a double header today in the first game of that double header. Uh, that's the first leg of the parlay.
9:33
Uh, and I'm gonna p- I'm gonna play them today with the, uh, with the Red Sox, Gil. Uh, I like this Pavetta. This Pavetta's got the best... talk about Stuff+, best Stuff+ in the game. High strikeout percentage.
9:45
Last 10 median, 34.4%. Uh, that's in the 99th percentile. I, I don't think, I don't think we should count this Red Sox team out yet. They still have a, for me, about a 40 to 45% chance of making the playoffs.
9:58
Got this game priced at minus 208. So the parlay today is gonna be first five Kansas City, uh, with, uh, Boston, uh, uh, full game, Gil. Okay.
10:07
Uh, Guardians, by the way, clinging to a three-game lead over both the Twins and the, and the, uh, Royals. So that's a big double header between the Guardians and the Royals today for sure.
10:16
And, uh, Mark didn't miss an opportunity to get a dad joke in there, a little pun. Uh, you should, you should be the, uh- You should be... the father that, uh, embarrasses his child with, like, using hip TikTok terms.
10:27
Like, uh- It's, it's such a great scene in Jennifer Aniston... It's, it's called We Are the Millers, I think, or Meet... I think it's We Are the Millers. It's such a great scene.
10:34
The no r- no ragret scene in that movie is perfect. Yeah. No regerts tattoo. Mark should go around, like, saying rizz and cap and no cap and stuff like that. What else, Gil? [laughs] I don't know.
10:45
That's all I got so far. I'll let you know by next segment if I have more. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. @basewinner. Thank you, Gil. Bye. We're com- we're coming back. NFL week one contest plays next.
10:56
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:13
Back at Bar Canada, the barrage here in downtown Las Vegas at the D, Bar Canada, floor number two. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Biblin. No McDonald's downstairs anymore, Kelly. That's it. RIP. Oh, yeah, I haven't...
11:25
I, I didn't even walk by it. I didn't either. So I'm just assuming. Um, got an interesting text here from, uh, Steve Fezzik. Are you familiar with a Steve Fezzik? Uh- What's, uh, what's Stevie got to say?
11:34
He said, uh, "My son and I just listened to your first segment. He said to me, 'Daddy, Gil is saying exactly what you just said to me this morning,'" and I promise you, Fezz, and I didn't talk about this.
11:46
He said, "What you just said to me this morning summarizing college football. We know nothing. He asked, was there a CliffsNotes that was sent out to all of us?"
11:55
[laughs] Um, no, uh, Fezzik and, uh, uh, your dad and I did not have this discussion. So we arrived at this, uh, independently.
12:02
And by the way, he also asked, I might have missed it, did Base Winner explain which game of the double header he was playing, uh, Kansas City on? Yes. Uh, the first game, which is the one that Ragans is playing in. Yes?
12:11
Yes. Correct. Okay. Just wanna make sure. All right. Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he comes to us courtesy of Progressive, uh, Guest Line. He's co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL.
12:20
You can follow him on Twitter at JHan4. That's H-A-H-N and the number four. It's Jay Hahn, everybody, from- Ontario, Canada. Toronto, I believe, specifically. Am I correct on that? Yes? You're, you're correct, Gil.
12:34
And I, yeah, this is one of my favorite events of the year, the US Open.
12:38
I, I don't know if it's just the timing of it, maybe it's last major of the season, whatever it might be, but, uh, you know, fall's in the air, hockey's around the corner here.
12:46
Uh, the, in this neck of the woods at least, football as well. So a lot of great things starting. Baseball playoffs right around the corner. You get the, the stretch drive.
12:53
So this is, we're entering into one of my favorite parts of the, uh, the sports calendar here over the next couple months.
12:58
It is, and I'll say it again, it i- it was one of my bucket list items in sports, go to a night match at the US Open.
13:04
The energy, the, uh, the vibe in, in, at Arthur Ashe and just even on the side courts is unlike anything else in tennis.
13:12
You can remember through the years, remember those, like, Marko Phaiditis night matches where he would just upse- I mean, he was just incredible. There's so many players through the years.
13:20
What did you land on in terms of your picks, uh, for day one, today? What did you play? Yeah. So I, I, I got three picks for you here, Gil, and we'll s- I'm curious to your take on any of these if maybe we, uh- Okay...
13:31
we match up or if we're going head-to-head on any of these plays. But, uh, I like an American. I'll start with an, an American, right? US Open, we might as well get an American on the card.
13:38
I'm, I'm gonna go Chris Eubanks plus 120 against Riner-Knecht here. Uh, Eubanks, I mean, he was in horrible form before Win- Winston-Salem, but he did find something.
13:47
W- Won a few matches there, uh, ultimately, uh, lost to Alex Nicholson. So I liked what I saw from him. I, I think he can keep this match close with his serve, so I like him at, at plus money there.
13:57
Uh, Seb, uh, Baez, uh, as well, guys. Not a great hard court player, as you probably know, Gil. Uh, but minus 130 against a, a completely out of form Italian player in Darderi.
14:08
I think he finds a way to, to at least grind this match out, uh, and advance into the second round. And on the women's side, I like Ann Li, uh, plus 110 against A- Aya Toml- uh, Tomljanovic.
14:19
Uh, who she just looked rough in the lead-up, uh, on hard court tournaments, and I, I think, uh, she's, to me, looks like she's heading close to, uh, retirement here, uh, in these coming years.
14:27
So I like the younger player at plus money. I am not involved in any of those three, but Ann Li was in sort of my top 10. She was one of my last ones that I just crossed off. So I am with you on Ann Li.
14:41
I would lean towards Ann Li in that. Um, I, I guess one of the reasons that I crossed that off is 'cause Tomljanovic still scares me.
14:49
I guess she was the last player to beat Serena, so there's a little bit that, that scared me off that. But, uh, I, I definitely lean that way. Baez, for sure, ought to be the favorite there.
14:58
And then, uh, Eubanks and Riner-Knecht, I never know, 'cause he's a bit serve boddy. Um, so it, it absolutely could go either way. Um, but I, but I like your, uh, your stab at the American, Chris Eubanks, on that.
15:09
Uh, any, did you play any futures at the US Open? Yeah. So, uh, fu- future's, uh, interesting here, guys.
15:15
I, I l- sometimes I like to wait a couple rounds, uh, to, you know, to sort of see, okay, who's in good form these fir- first couple rounds.
15:21
I still think you could find some decent numbers midway through the first week of the tournament. Um, but there are a couple numbers on the men's side that I think are really interesting to jump o- off the hop.
15:30
Now, look, we know who the top dogs are. We know Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz. These guys are the favorites for a reason. Novak Djokovic coming off the gold medal as well.
15:38
So you make a strong case for any of these guys and, and obviously they're priced there for a reason.
15:43
Uh, Alex Variev has, you know, a pretty great draw, at least to make it, uh, to a quarterfinal, and he's been playing some pretty good tennis of late as well.
15:50
Uh, but if you go deeper down the board, there's a couple names that at least interest me, maybe not from an outright perspective, but I think as guys that can go on a, on a decent run here.
15:58
Uh, I'll start with an American in Frances Tiafoe. Uh, he's a, he's a big game player, guys. Now I, I find Tiafoe lacks motivation a- at times.
16:07
You know, he's k- kind of one of those players that could lose to basically anybody on tour. Uh, but I also feel like he could challenge anybody on tour.
16:13
If he gets, uh, you know, on center court against a, an Alcaraz or a Sinner or a Djokovic, and, uh, it would be Novak that he would have to face earlier than any of those players, uh, I think he's the type of player that'll step up and, and, you know, play a big match, and he has that big serve that can trouble, uh, some of these top players.
16:29
So Tiafoe around 80 to 1, uh, for the outright. Again, that's, you know, probably a bit of a long shot, but I think he's someone that can go on a deep run. Uh, and I'll stay north of the border here.
16:38
My guy Félix Auger-Aliassime, uh, you know, is coming off a great showing at the Olympics, a, a great showing over the, over the summer as well.
16:46
Uh, hasn't necessarily played a lot of hard court tennis, uh, leading up to this tournament, but 100 to 1 for him, and he's got a favorable draw to win a, a least a few rounds here, guys.
16:55
So again, maybe not from an outright perspective, but a couple names at least on the men's side I think that could go on a, on a decent run. No flyers on the ladies' side? I think Paula Badosa's worth a look here, guys.
17:06
I...
17:07
The, the ladies' side is the one that I actually wanna wait a c- a couple, uh, of matches on, 'cause I, I look past like, in that 50 to 100 to 1 range, there's a lot of names that actually do interest me and I think, okay, I could see them going on a run.
17:19
Uh, but I don't know where the form is at on some of these players. Like a, like a Madison Keys, she comes in with no form. She just retired in her last match.
17:25
She is somebody that if she finds it, uh, i- in her first couple of matches, then yeah, I'd, I'd be willing to jump in and, and back her. You know, so she's just an example of one of those players in that range.
17:35
You know, even a Linda Noskova, who's a gr- a, you know, great young talent that's coming off of a, of a title over the weekend. You know, how does the travel affect her? Uh, she's priced over 100 to 1.
17:45
I, you know, I think if she's finally found it, she's somebody that could also go on a deep run. But I, I like the form o- of Paula Badosa right now.
17:51
You could find her around, you know, 28 to 35 to 1, something in that range. Uh, she's got a decent, decent little draw here. And, uh, I'm okay fading the top of the board here, guys.
18:00
Like, obviously Sabalenka deserves to be the favorite. Uh, she is the best hard court player here. Um, it's tough to get behind Iga on this surface, uh, right now from, at least from what I've seen, uh, leading up to it.
18:12
Uh, you know, Coco Gauff as well I don't think is a, is a terrible number there. But I'm okay fading the top of the board and, and trying to find somebody.
18:18
You know, this tends to be the, the breakthrough tournament, whether it's for the women or, or even for the men.
18:22
This tend- tended to be the tournament where, you know, maybe we'd catch a bit of a different winner outside of the, the Big Three. So I'm okay looking down the board on both the men's and women's side here.
18:31
Yeah, I got Badosa to win her quarter at plus 550. Uh, the, the Iga thing- Right...
18:35
I just, I just wanna point this out to folks, too, I think, 'cause I think it's one of the It's one of the go-to comments that people are making. "Oh, it's not her surface. She's not that good on hard courts."
18:43
I have to just say this, she's won six 1000s on hard courts. She's also won the US Open before, and this US Open, the courts are playing slow, which is to her advantage.
18:54
Um, I think that's one of the, the most misunderstood things about her. I think, I think this is actually a perfect surface for her.
19:01
So I think that this is going to be a sneaky, no one's expecting her to perform kind of tournament for her, and I got her to win it all. So we, we shall see.
19:10
And if she wins it, it's her sixth slam at the age of 23, which again, is Serena pace. I just want to point that out. But people love to... People, and I'm not talking about you, Jake, by the way.
19:19
I've, I've heard this a lot about Iga. I love Iga. Oh, people, people are... It, it's just, it's such a, it's such a false claim about her on, on this surface. PGA Tour, uh, East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta,
19:33
for all the, for, for, for $25 million in the FedEx Cup.
19:38
Scottie Scheffler's gonna start this at 10 under, Xander at eight under, Hideki, with concerns, at seven under, and then Keegan Bradley, who just won the BMW, at six under.
19:48
And then we go down, uh, et cetera, et cetera, down 30 golfers in terms of the starting position here. How are you betting the Tour Championship? Uh, this is always a tricky one, guys.
20:00
Uh, I'm sure Kelly can speak to this as well. You can... There's a couple different markets you can bet with the starting strokes, without the starting strokes.
20:07
I, I, I kind of like to go with the starting strokes because at the end of the day, these guys are trying to win a golf tournament.
20:12
Um, I don't know how much they're worried about the tournament without the starting strokes, so I, I like to try to find some value there.
20:18
I mean, if, if anyone watched the tournament over the weekend, Scottie Scheffler just looked completely lost. I don't know if I've ever seen him like that before, at least in a long time.
20:25
And again, he's coming off a gold medal. It's not like he's, he's been lost for a while. Uh, he just played some great golf recently.
20:31
So, I mean, he's the type of guy that can just snap, snap out of it and, and find it, but to see him at the top of the board, again, not a guy that you're usually rushing to, to fade or to bet against.
20:41
Uh, but he did look out of sorts over the weekend, so can he find it over these next few days? Uh, you mentioned Hideki.
20:46
I mean, if, if you could guarantee me he's healthy, I would be all over him to, to track down these guys, because he's the type of guy that could absolutely do it.
20:53
But concerning that he pulled out of a playoff event, so it's hard to get behind him. Uh, Ludvig played some good golf over the weekend. I think he's set up nicely, uh, for East Lake.
21:02
Might be a little too far back, guys, but I, I love the way that Sam Burns is playing. I, I was on him last week.
21:08
Uh, he just missed out, you know, just missed a bunker hole out on 18, would've probably got him into a, a playoff with Keegan Bradley. So I think he's someone down the board that could go on, on a legitimate push.
21:18
So I, I'm looking at a, at a big number on Sam Burns, or maybe a, uh, Ludvig Aberg, uh, to, to push Scottie at the top of that board. All right. Tour Championship, FedEx Cup fever.
21:27
Kelly, you're gonna have some FedEx Cup thoughts a little later maybe? Yeah. All right, we'll do that. Jake, always a pleasure. @JHan4. Jake Hahn, everybody. Thank you, sir. Yeah, good luck this week, boys.
21:38
We'll talk soon. You too. Mike Somich right here at the D, Somo Bombing all of his plays across all sports. That's on the other side. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
21:48
[upbeat rock music] [machine clicking] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:07
The quest for $9.2 million, the Circus Survivor doc, episode two tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific.
22:16
Uh, Mike Soma- uh, Mike Somich, Mike Somo Bomb with a, uh, with a great sort of running appearance there with Matt Brown throughout as the sort of narrators of this whole thing.
22:26
Uh, you can watch it again tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern, right here on VSiN.
22:29
Five-part docuseries, episode two's tonight, three, four, and five tomorrow night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night, again, on vsin.com, YouTube TV as well, as well as a live broadcast on X.
22:40
Vsin.com/survivor, that's where you can find all the details, or to watch episode one still if you've missed that.
22:45
So, um, check it out, because one was great, and I was mentioning Stormy, heavily involved in, uh, episode two tonight, as is our guy Sharapan. He's all over it, does a great job.
22:56
But you and Matt Brown as sort of, you guys are sort of the, uh, the guys who move the chains for everybody. Yeah, we, we were doing these hits consistently throughout the season.
23:04
We did the, uh, the release show last year for both contests, the Millions and Survivor, on Saturday night, and so we would, we would do hits Sunday morning and then Sunday after the game, since it fit well with our show schedule.
23:13
And it's, it's gonna be fascinating to see how this is cut together.
23:16
We got to meet a lot of the different survivors and the, the Millions winners last year that came on, on the set and during the handle during the season.
23:22
So it was fun to talk with them and talk through the strategy, and I'm, I'm fascinated how this is gonna play out over the next four nights. I mean, I obviously have already lived this documentary in a lot of ways.
23:31
Yeah, yeah. But the, the rumors that swirled around the chop gate, and then the first chop that didn't happen, and then the second one that did- [laughs]...
23:37
and, and the hedging that everyone discussed, and certain people buying into certain entries and trading percentages, I think it's gonna be fascinating as we get down to 25 people or less and, and hear more of the details of what actually went on- Yeah...
23:50
when you've got this kind of life-changing money on the line.
23:52
I, the best part about this, I mean, and correct me if, if, if I'm wrong, Gil, but the, uh, like, like you said, like Mike, Mike and Matt kind of drive a lot of this, but, like, w- I have no idea how much of that's on camera or, uh, or, you know, or on audio, right?
24:05
Of the conversations towards the end, and I [laughs] like, it's, I'm so looking forward to that too. Oh, you're talking about the chop- Yeah, yeah... the chop conversations and the hedging, yeah.
24:13
That's, uh, that's gonna be fascinating. Which we're just gonna have to wait and find out, but yeah. It is. I will tell you that I g- I did get a sneak preview.
24:20
It is a pretty good portion of the remaining, like after tonight. I bet. Once you get especially into four, I think, but, like, it's, it's a big part of it. It should be. I mean, that was the over- Yeah...
24:30
that was a overwhelming storyline for, uh, from that contest last year. It's, I keep saying this, it's almost more stressful. Like, this was the, last year was the first year where I felt this. That part-
24:39
Felt to me that it was almost more stressful than the contest itself for those guys. I mean, it, the thing is, as, as this gets bigger, we're 9.2 million last year- Yeah...
24:48
it's gonna go over 10 million this year, you're gonna have more and more of these situations where people are 100% outside of their comfort zone. Yes.
24:56
Where you have implied equity of 100,000, 200,000, $300,000 on some of these games, and then you, if you get deep into this, you've got to figure out how to monetize this entry, and how much risk do you wanna put on while monetizing that entry?
25:09
Do you want to bet against your own team, right? Most of the time you're gonna have a favorite, do you wanna take the points on the other side, create a middle and root for that? Yeah.
25:16
Would you rather take the money line of pe- other people that are in the contest? Do you actually pick games earlier in the week so that if you get through, you can monetize later in the week?
25:25
There's all of these different aspects I think come into play. Or do you wanna wait for Sunday and Monday night games so you know what everyone's done? Yeah.
25:32
One, one of the things that, uh, again, it's in a, it's in a later episode, not necessarily tonight, but I also try to, like, and I, I remember saying this during the season last year also, we also have to resist the urge to judge what other people are doing, right?
25:50
So if you see, if you see teams that are picked and you're like, "Now, why in the hell would somebody pick them?" You don't know. Multiple entries, right? Yeah, yeah. You don't know what their strategy is.
26:03
If, if, from, from the chopping and from the hedging and the, and monetizing standpoint, you don't know what people's situations are, right?
26:10
You don't, you know, again, there's, there's people who think it's them, that they're just so much better than everyone else, right? Who could that be? Who... Right?
26:18
[laughs] Uh, there are people who think, justifiably perhaps, that their remaining teams are better than the remaining teams of other, of other folks.
26:29
And there's, and there's, and any number of, there's more reasons also to not be so confident in what our knee-jerk reaction would be to what we're seeing in front of us, right? Yeah.
26:38
I mean, last year you actually had a odds site come out and say the implied equity of each entry once it got down to 20 or less- Right...
26:44
because of the specific teams who are left and their implied win percentage throughout the rest of the game. So there was a denomination specifically set to each entry. I, I- By the way, I love that- Oh...
26:52
that they power rank the entries. I think it's cool. I, I, I- It is very cool... the, the more data we can get about this, the more I'm gonna geek out about it. Oh. I think it's very interesting.
26:59
I gotta say, one of the most awkward parts about Matt and I's job last year, who were both out of every entry in week three- [laughs]... when 60% of the pool got knocked out- [laughs]...
27:08
was then judging other people's picks for the rest of the year. [laughs] We're like, man, I'm, I've, uh, Survivor feels like a coin flip to me, right? You're, you're trying to get lucky. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
27:16
You gotta get lucky throughout the season, and it goes into, the doc goes into some of the very fortunate moments for some of the competitors that ended up going very, very deep in here.
27:24
And it's just, it's difficult to sit there and be like, "I wouldn't have taken that team," after you're already out in week three.
27:30
Well, especially, like we, you know, we know people that were in it who were g- "Oh, I can't believe that person picked that." Maybe you should keep your mouth shut about that stuff.
27:38
Like, and just humble it the way through, 'cause- Well, it's, it's like when you're- It's- It's like when you're playing craps. Yeah. You don't, you don't start talking about how good you're rolling. No, no. You don't.
27:45
That's the- Absolutely not... a great way to end your roll. Absolutely not. All right, let's, uh, that's tonight. Again, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific, episode two of Circus Survivors, the quest for $9.2 million.
27:58
Uh, vsn.com, YouTube TV, uh, YouTube TV, and again, a live broadcast on X as well. Baseball, sir, what did you land on today? I got two games that I played today.
28:07
Uh, first one, let's look at the Padres and the Cardinals here. And total opened at nine and a half, and I, I kind of agreed with that number.
28:13
I had this game close to 10, closer to 9.8, um, but it's actually been bet down. So we're now getting nine out there in the market. It's a little bit juiced to minus 120. You can take nine and a half still.
28:22
That's sitting at m- plus 105. Um, I took the mi- the mi- nine over minus 120 here, C- Padres, Cardinals.
28:28
You've got, uh, Vasquez on the mound for the Padres, and Given on the mou- or, uh, Gibson, I'm sorry, on the mound for the Cardinals.
28:34
Two pitchers that both have expected ERAs almost a full run over what their current ERAs for. It's games in St. Louis, the better hitting stadiums of the two.
28:42
Uh, so I, I'm willing to take a, take a piece of the over here, sitting at nine right now, Cardinals, Padres. All right.
28:47
And then what has, uh, become a sort of Mike Somich branded bet, 'cause you're the guy that talks about it the most, and we'll, we'll... Again, where is this particular type of bet available? Let's start there.
28:58
It's a- at the only place I found it at DraftKings. Okay.
29:00
And it's, it's wildly fr- I would love other books to put this out there so I could see what they price it at to see if my, uh, the way that I, I believe this is incorrectly priced is right.
29:10
I've, I've now tracked my bets. Oh, we believe you. We believe you are correct that it is incorrectly priced. [laughs] Is, is it consistently incorrectly priced, or do you ever lose?
29:18
Well, let's explain to people what we're talking about first. So, so the bet is- Good, good call. [laughs] The, the bet is will a team bat in the bottom of the ninth. Okay.
29:24
And it's, it's, uh, it, it's interesting because there's two different ways to play it.
29:27
If you play a dog, you get 40 to 50 cents extra on whatever the money line price is for that underdog to not bat in the bottom of the ninth.
29:35
So playing a home dog in this way, you're getting additional equity saying that they'll win at eight and a half innings instead of winning in nine or extras. Okay. Which, not all that likely.
29:43
It's, it's about a 10% chance that they're going to actually win in that. And it, depending on the price, you could see a closer situation.
29:49
So to me, a game like the Cardinals, Padres, minus 120 plus 100 on either side, that game is more likely to have an at bat in the bottom of the ninth. Why? Because they are close to each other, right? Right.
30:01
The price dictates that this could be a closer game. You look at the Phillies taking on the Astros, uh, the Phillies have been bet out here to minus 165 last I looked, and you, the Astros are plus 143.
30:12
That game is less likely to go to the bottom of the ninth.
30:14
However, the way this is priced is that the Phillies, you get a bigger discount off the money line than you would the Cardinals, because they don't, the, be- because the gap between the plus one and a half or minus one and a half, that's how I look at this.
30:27
So if, if I'm getting, let's say, right in the middle. So let's say there's minus 150 for the b- money line, plus 150 for the run line, 50% middle would be plus 100, right?
30:38
The higher the favorite- The closer it is to the minus one and a half, and that's where I believe it, I really disagree with it.
30:44
And so you look at this, this Phillies Astros games, minus 170 right now on the money line, plus 130 on the run line, minus 105 the Phillies will not bat in the bottom of the ninth.
30:54
65% off between the, the f- money line and the run line that you're giving the Phillies not to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Minus 170 to what? Minus one- minus 115, I'm sorry. Minus 115. Minus 115. Yeah. Okay.
31:04
Uh, someone would have to run the numbers on this for us to be 100% sure, but intuitively it sure sounds like you're right. I'm about 60 bets in- Yeah...
31:14
and this is the most profitable way to play favorites between 170 and 210. And you said it's difficult to find on DraftKings. It is. You have to, [laughs] it's buried a little bit.
31:25
So you gotta go to, you open up a specific game. Yeah. You've gotta go to game props, and then you've gotta scroll about 75% of the way down- Okay [laughs]...
31:31
and you will see, will the X, in this case, will the Phillies bat in the bottom of the ninth? And there's a yes price and a no price. This is such a great find by you.
31:39
I mean, and, and like I said, I've been betting baseball since the dawn of time, and I've never seen this before, and I obviously haven't been betting on DraftKings, um, for multiple reasons, right?
31:51
Well- So- If we weren't owned by DraftKings for a while, I would never have found it Well, well that's what I mean. I mean, it's- Oh, so you actually, you, you looked around.
31:57
I, I spend about an hour a day looking at sports books- Yeah... just to try and find markets like this which I believe are incorrectly priced.
32:04
And, and I th- and i- it sounds also intuitively like, intuitively like you have also parsed it correctly also, where those are the, that's the sweet spot, the bigger favorites where you're getting the most bang for your buck.
32:16
That, it's, it's a fascinating thing. Um, and you're right, the price, it dictates in both cases.
32:21
When it's a closely lined one you're, you know, that's, that's not a play on, but on something like this, well, the likelihood of it happening is that much more, and look at this price I found. It is- It's awesome...
32:32
it is buried in here. [laughs] I, I found it by, I had to go up and down a few times, like, "Where is this?" It's just one liner. Yeah, it's a one liner. It's not even easy to find.
32:39
This is one li- Kelly spent the first half of the segment feeling Mike's shirt- [laughs]... and then the second half searching for that prop. [laughs] Thank you, Mike. Catch your flight. Mike Savage, everybody.
32:48
Samobom18 on the Twitter machine. We'll come back, golf and football next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:05
Hey, don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
33:13
If you go there right now, front page, you can watch episode one of Circus Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million before the episode two debut tonight.
33:22
Uh, Greg Peterson talking, uh, baseball, the Astros Phillies, he's got a play there. Zach Cohen with his US Open picks.
33:28
I didn't check those out, um, but he's got both men's and women's calls, day number one of the United States Open, greatest slam there is. Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA.
33:38
All these, uh, folks, by the w- by the way, all of that and more at vsin.com. College football as well with Adam Burke and JBT front and center as well. Um, a lot of folks had the, uh, Indiana Fever under season wins.
33:52
I remember pre, uh, before the WNBA season- Oh, of course. And Caitlin- I'm getting sweaty.
33:56
[laughs] They, they were like, "Oh, this is the easiest bet in the world," and Caitlin Clark and company are just trying to mess that up big time. Yep. Yeah. That's gonna be interesting to see.
34:05
Um, here's the other thing that gets you about, uh, the women's tennis again.
34:09
We're up a break, uh, with, uh, both Anisimova over Xinwen Zheng or Zheng Xinwen 5-2, and we're up a break with, uh, Yifan Wang against Sakkari, up 5-2 in the first set, but Sakkari now has a medical timeout.
34:21
So this is the other thing we have to try to avoid, right?
34:24
Which is, okay, this is a three, a pl- a plus 311 dog that is looking great, and now you have to worry about, oh, is, is Sakkari gonna, is Sakkari gonna quit on us now?
34:34
Is this what's gonna hap- Is this how we're not gonna win this? There's always- Wait, how long does it have to go? Well, okay, by the way, there's, they're, they've resumed playing by the way.
34:44
Um, at some shops it has to go one set, at some shops it has to complete. Oh. But they're, they, they have resumed playing. Okay. So we shall see. We shall see where this goes. Um, okay. Tour championship, golf.
34:57
Again, it's the old, I don- I don't wanna say it's the staggered start, because that's, that's poor terminology. But you have a, a leaderboard that, um, has different starting positions. Scottie Scheffler,
35:10
who is plus one to n- now there's two different things happening here, right? You could conceivably win the tour championship, the weekend tournament, but not win the FedEx Cup. Correct? Sa- say again.
35:24
You could conceivably win the tour championship, the tournament itself, but not win the FedEx Cup. No, whoever w- y- uh, yeah, whoever wins the- So there's a, there's a strokes market. See what I'm saying?
35:35
No, it's the, i- it's the 72 hole market for the tour championship that's separate. Correct, that's what I'm trying to say. But w- with the staggered strokes, whoever wins it wins the FedEx Cup.
35:47
No, no, no, with the s- that's correct, but we, that's what I'm saying. There's two different ways to play this, right? Mm-hmm. Two different ways to bet, yes. There's two different markets. Yes.
35:53
So again, let's, let's try to clarify that. There's the starting position one for the FedEx Cup.
35:59
Scheffler's starting at 10 under, Xander at eight under, Hideki seven under, uh, Ober five under, and then everybody else, uh, from there. Hey, yeah, I did this by odds, so Keegan's at six under.
36:09
Oh, Keegan six under, and then- Disrespect for Keegan, you know? Disrespect for Keegan. Keegan is six under, I'm sorry, and then, uh, Ober five under, everybody four under, and, and then it staggers down. Yeah.
36:17
That's to win the FedEx Cup. So starting with that, whoever ends up with the best number at the end of it all wins the FedEx Cup. But y- there's another market that's the tour championship itself. Right?
36:29
Correct Which is just strokes to zero 72 holes. Yeah. Yeah. 72 hole strokes to zero. So be careful about that first thing. Uh, how are you playing this thing?
36:35
Yeah, the s- 72 hole market will look much, much more similar to what you would expect- Correct... a- you know- Yes... odds to look like on these 30 guys.
36:42
I- But this is the only time of year we have to be aware of this kind of- Right. Correct. Yeah, I, I bet, I, I bet Scheffler mid-show.
36:47
I, I think sh- uh, any, if you're getting plus, plus money on Scottie Scheffler, you're giving me a two-shot lead with the best golfer on the planet, hey, I'm, I'm betting him.
36:56
I, it's, I'm quickly seeing this number r- uh, s- switch to, switch to him being the odds-on favorite. It's minus 110, minus 115 places. Uh, I just betted MGM plus 110.
37:07
Um, that's what they had, had up this morning as well. I betted o- I, I betted. I think if you're t- you're get- talking plus money, uh, I'll be on Scheffler with the starting strokes.
37:17
Um, I do have a Morikawa ticket already that is not looking nearly as good now. Um, think I bet that at 18 to 1. He's 25 to 1 in this market. I'll probably, I might have one or two, uh, in the 72 hole market.
37:29
There's definitely, there are definitely some guys I'm looking to pick on matchup-wise. Um, Hideki Matsuyama probably the biggest. I don't even know if they're gonna li- list matchups.
37:40
That will be interesting to watch, what the, what the books do with guys like him, because he, he withdrew with a back injury last week. Um, these things seem to come and go with Hideki. I, I wouldn't be shocked if he's
37:54
more okay than not, Gil, but tell me a guy that's got a back injury, but he's a- almost, unless it's terrible, he's going to tee it up this week because there's guaranteed money going to every single one of these guys, and it's- Even if he swings the club twice...
38:08
all you gotta do is tee off. Yeah. Tee off and go pick up your ball and go home. I know. And you make 550K. So, like, it- Is that, is that good? Yeah, that's pretty good. [laughs] It's not bad for 10 minutes of work.
38:17
Yeah. So, like, uh, just keep that in mind as you're looking at matchups this week.
38:21
I, I have, I mean, the books, I have a feeling will be smart about that as well, [laughs] and you're not gonna get much of an opportunity, or odds will be really, really bad. But I'll be looking to pick on him for sure.
38:32
Um, but, uh, I think this is, I, I, I really think Scheffler, Schauffele, this is, uh, we're actually going to get a tour championship here that really does reflect what the season was. Now, we can argue all we want.
38:45
I kind of hate this week, 'cause it's all, like, every- everybody gotta, has to give their own take of how they would do the playoffs.
38:50
It's just, there's never gonna be a, to me, there's never a perfect system to how to, how to do a playoffs in golf. I don't think this is a completely bad way. Does it reward?
38:59
Uh, i- it's kind of silly that you get so mu- you get rewarded for what you did so much during the regular season, when it feels like the playoffs should kind of be by themselves.
39:08
But with Scheffler and Schauffele at the top getting a little bit of a head start, I expect that we're gonna get to be- see basically a duel between those two, who we have argued, um, you know, we've argued basically who is the, who had the best season up, up until the point I think when Scheffler won g- uh, gold, and then that conversation's over to me.
39:25
But- So you are betting the FedEx Cup, you are not betting the tournament itself? C- co- correct. The 72 holes, in other words. I, I'll probably b- I'll probably have bets in both markets. Okay.
39:36
But I am betting plus 110 on Scottie Scheffler with the starting strokes. To w- to win the FedEx Cup? Yes. Gotcha. Okay. And the Tour Championship. And the Tour Championship. [laughs] And the Tour Championship. Yeah.
39:46
Wait a minute. See, now you're confusing. Yeah, the winner of the Tour Championship wins the FedEx Cup. Okay.
39:52
But would- For betting purposes, there will be a separate 72 hole market for this tournament without the starting strokes. Okay. All right. It's tough. It's terminology, man.
40:02
The, the b- the, this is where we were talking about it last week. The betting of this is, is more d- more difficult- Yeah... this week to explain the betting of it than the h- average fan at home just watching it.
40:10
The way that it should be worded is, to win the FedEx Cup and to win 72 holes. Putting Tour Championship into it just pollutes the whole thing, 'cause that's gonna confuse people. I'm just, uh- Yeah...
40:21
that's my little shout-out to books on that. Um, by the way, real quick, 'cause I went through my contest plays that I, that I think I'll play.
40:27
Well, and maybe, and give me, you know, we're, I still have, you know, what, 11, uh, 12 days to submit these. But I went through my week one contest plays. Did you bet anything? Oh yeah, I've got bets.
40:36
Um- What did you bet, besides Arizona? I know you have Arizona. Yeah, bet Arizona. I took six and a half w- last, I, I s- I took, took six and a half. I laid minus 115.
40:45
That was the last six and a half that was left in town. That was probably Thursday, Thursday or Friday or something, I bet that.
40:50
Uh, I laid two and a half with the Chiefs, wanted to lay, uh, move that bef- or, or bet that before that got to three. Uh, even a little bit after the Drew conversation last week with that.
40:59
I do think just two and a half is kind of cheap with the Chiefs, uh, with the Ravens coming to town that opening Thursday night. Um, I am on the over in Jaguars.
41:07
Dolphins, played that at 49, did not get the 48 and a half, but that is quickly going up, so I wanted to get on there at 49. Laid two and a half with the Falcons.
41:15
We talked about that one, uh, with Steelers coming to town. Um, and then that teaser that, uh, Mike talked about, I'm on the same exact one.
41:22
Bengals down to two and a half, Vikings up to seven and a half, paying the juice with the six, six and a half point teaser. Maria Sakkari has quit. Yifan Wang is a plus 311 dog, wins the first set, and Sakkari has quit.
41:34
Uh, 6-2. So if we, if you had it at a shop that needed one set to be graded, you are a winner. If you do not have it at a shop with only one set and you needed the whole match to be played, it is a refund.
41:48
Judging by the tone in your voice, you got a refund. Well, I always, I'm consistent how I grade them. For me, it's always you must finish the match, so that's a refund.
41:55
It's not a, it's not three plus, it's not 3.11 units in my pocket. But if you had it at a one-set shop, good for you.
42:04
Well, that's personally how you grade yourself, but you did, or- No, that's, that's, that's how my biggest outlay is always at the non-one set shops. Gotcha. That, that's what I was asking you.
42:14
It's always at a full grade. Okay. Yes. Got it. Yeah, 100%. So I'm not gonna sit here and say- So your first one of the tournament great? Uh, it's, it's infuriating. It's infuriating.
42:22
How, how many of these do you think you average at grand slam? Oh, bro, I d- Four? I can't even. [laughs] So why, if, if Sakkari was that hurt, why is she playing? Did she get hurt during the first set?
42:30
Someone has to tell me, 'cause we're doing a show. Uh- Yeah, that's a good point. Opening match of the US Open. I mean, why is she playing at all then? First set? Yeah, yeah. Um- She's not making f- 550K to show up. No.
42:40
Um, okay, real quick before we go, 'cause I promised this, uh, on Friday, I didn't say it on Friday, and I promised that I'll share today and I didn't.
42:46
Number three and number two sushi spots, uh, Kelly Bet- Oh, yeah, yeah. I can't wait... uh, number three, Sen. S-E-N. It's out in Summerlin. It's like a driver away from the Las Vegas Aviators- Wow... ballpark. Okay.
42:59
A great area. Sen. Yeah. Big, great, consistently great sushi. That's number three, Sen. And number two, this'll cost you a little more, but it's, uh, it's a small place. Also, it's called Kabuto.
43:10
I've mentioned it before on the show. Yeah. K-A-B-U-T-O. That's number two. Um, they were great. I would say they had a little, couple years where they weren't as great, and now they're back to being spectacular again.
43:21
So Sen and Kabuto. Sorry, those are the, uh- At least you got two... consolation prizes. That's good. Um, that Sakkari thing, man. Come on. Brutal. Brutal. Brutality. We've done all we can do. Best bets is next.
43:34
Enjoy from VSEN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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