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Aug 26, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 26, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 26, 2025
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45:42
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's radio's Gil Alexander, everybody. That right there is Clay Beidelon. Yeah.
0:23
Producer number nine. So much more than the producer. What's happening? Not much. I just used, uh, a couple fancy words before the show- What'd you use?... so I'm just gonna hope, I'm just gonna hope to carry it over.
0:33
Well, give us a, give us a clue. What- Not really that fancy. Hence and arise. I was just thinking when's the last time I've used the word arise. Arise is fancy. [laughs] I, I, I'm gonna go with fancy for that.
0:42
Hence perhaps is somewhat fancy. Hence. Yeah, hence. Yeah, hence. Here are two four. Uh, coming up on the show, Mark Borchardt talking Major League Baseball with us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert.
0:52
Base winner, you may know him as. Drew Dinsick, hour number two, US Open plays, and of course, NFL thoughts as we are now, wow, what is it? Uh, nine days away from the beginning- Nine days... of the regular season. Nine.
1:07
Count 'em, nine. Why do people do that? Why do they go, "Count 'em, nine"? I don't know. Does anybody hear that and go, "One, two"? [laughs] Uh, we will, speaking of football, we will do NFC...
1:15
Okay, let, let's complete our, uh, our, our NFC North conversation- Yes... which I guess we started a long time ago, but let's just start from the beginning on that. And then let's do AFC West.
1:27
Let's just immerse- That's right... in the National Football League today. Well, big time moves in the AFC West yesterday. The Raiders were pulling the trigger left and right.
1:35
Oh, you're talking about tra- I thought you meant betting line moves. You're talking about a trade. Yeah. Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Can we talk? Okay, one, one second. Hold that, this, this thought for a second.
1:41
Teaser Tuesday today, a little later on, Tyler Shoemaker on, uh, WNBA. And when I say a little later on today, it's 'cause we're here for three hours, y'all. I don't know if you know this. We're here [laughs] all day.
1:50
Do we get a lunch break? I think we do. [laughs] I think we do get a lunch break. And Dr. Bob will join us. Yes. Let's go. Not actually a physician, but a doctor of sports analytics.
2:01
Uh, he'd love to tell you the story about how he got named Doctor, but I don't dare ask him because that'll take a segment away.
2:06
But we will talk about season win totals that he released last week, four of who, four of which are still available. Okay. So he will talk about those four.
2:14
And I wanna get his top fi- his rankings of the top five teams, and specifically I'm looking for the gap between one and two, because he has some really strong thoughts on that.
2:22
And we'll get a, uh, we'll get a week one play from him at least in this. And then we hope to, and then we'll have him every Friday during the season, as we always do. How about Fridays here on the show?
2:31
Felika, Fezzik, Dr. Bob. Love it. Doesn't get much better, man. Don't get much better than this. By the way, we was talking to Crack yesterday.
2:38
I was like, "Do you wanna stay the same hour, or do you wanna move the, the last hour?"
2:41
So it's like Crack will be the same hour on Thursday this week, but then we will move Crack back an hour to the final hour of Thursday starting next week. Just smart marketing by Bill.
2:51
So he's the- When, when you texted me that, I was like- Yeah... "This actually is a good idea. This is smart."
2:55
So we don't, 'cause it, so we don't confuse people on week one, but then we push it and we remind everybody while he's in that he will be at 9:00 going forward. Also, we might have a, uh- We, we might...
3:03
we might, we might have a special guest during the Crack Hour this week. Oh, okay. Fancy. Yeah. Can't wait. Someone who's going to jail. Oh. I'll tease it that way. Okay. Um- As long as we aren't. No, we are not.
3:14
[laughs] As far as I know. Oh, back to your point about the, uh, the Raiders. So the Raiders, uh, obviously Aiden, uh, I was about to say Aiden Hutchinson. What, uh, what, uh- Aiden O'Connell?
3:25
Aiden O'Conn- Good, good God. Aiden O'Connell. By the way, this is, where I can't, when I couldn't come up with the name, I have a story for you later on this.
3:31
So Aiden O'Connell, uh, hurts his wrist, so the Raiders in need of a, of a backup quarterback. Pete Carroll of course wants someone, as Pete Carroll does, wants someone with experience.
3:39
They go out and they trade for Kenny Pickett. A fifth round pick goes to the Browns for Kenny Pickett. Uh, which makes sense from the Raiders standpoint, right? Have a, quote, unquote, "veteran" quarterback.
3:50
And by veteran, I mean someone who's actually taken snaps in the NFL, has started games.
3:54
Obviously, Kenny Pickett starting for the Steelers and then was, uh, Jalen Hurts' backup last year, uh, with, uh, Philly, and saw some action.
4:02
Played against Washington at length, for instance, in, uh, in the game that Philly lost to Washington when the, uh, Skins, uh, turned the ball over five times, but still won on some Jayden Daniels heroics.
4:11
But so that makes sense from their standpoint. I'm fascinated by it from a Browns standpoint.
4:15
Fascinated might be a little, [laughs] a little overstatement, but it is pretty interesting to me because the Browns essentially, and keep in mind, Kenny Pickett just went, right, with, uh, with the fifth r- Kenny Pickett went for a fifth and DTR from Philly to Cleveland in March.
4:31
So what's that? Five months? Where the Br- And, and a hamstring injury admittedly as well in there.
4:36
Where the Browns I guess just decided, "Well, if you're gonna give us a fifth for him, we'd be happy to unload him [laughs] at this point." Yeah. They saw enough, I guess.
4:42
I, I, I think it was, uh, well, I, I think it was a bummer of an off-season for Pickett being injured because- Yes... I, I'm, I think the Browns' plan, uh, is ki- I mean, this is what I thought all along.
4:53
I think it was, "Hey, let Flacco and Pickett have a battle. Whoever wins is gonna start week one. Whoever loses that is probably cut." 'Cause I never believed they were gonna carry all these quarterbacks into the season.
5:02
Well, they said they were, but what's, again, what's curious is Joe Flacco is what I believe, if you Google, it's like 50,000 years old. Yes, that is correct. Right? Yeah.
5:10
Um, he's not going to, this just in, he's, the chances of him playing 17 football games is probably slim to none. Yeah.
5:17
So it does become at that point the Dylan Gabriel/Shadoor Sanders show, and we have yet to now find out who will actually be the number two quarterback. Who will be QB two?
5:27
Uh, Dylan Gabriel's last performance, um, leads one to believe that perhaps it's him. Also Shadoor Sanders' last, uh, ap- appearance and performance.
5:36
Though of course social media is filled with people saying he didn't get a fair shake.
5:41
But I gu- so I guess from the Browns' standpoint, it's like whatever you fel- felt about the Browns from a season win total, th- and regardless of how you felt about Kenny Pickett, that has to move the needle at least incrementally for you More to the bearish side, right?
5:55
Because if Flacco is not available, then you're dealing with a rook. Uh, yes. Yes, I was, I, I was thinking Pickett would've beaten out Flacco, but that's with him being injured.
6:04
I just don't think he got that opportunity. You're right, though, um, now that he's gone, I, look, I think it makes sense, though, for Cleveland.
6:11
This, I think this was the plan all along, and if you were sitting there, maybe not all along, but- See, I don't think it was the plan all along...
6:16
but in the, in the, in the training camp, if you had the thought, "We need to get a, we need to get a look at both of these rookies," and, and to me, like, I think both of these rookies start more than one game this year.
6:26
That's my, that's my guess. I think you're correct. So if that's the case, you'll take anything for a guy like Kenny Pickett. Well, that's what I, that's what I mean by I don't think it was the plan all along.
6:34
I think it took the Raiders and the Aidan O'Connell injury to come along and say, "Yeah, w- are, is he available?" And the Browns sorta like, "Well, why, yes, he is," you know, all of a sudden like that.
6:42
So anyway, um, it's a, it's a trade on the fringes it would seem, but for Cleveland bettors, or for those thinking about betting Cleveland, it's, it might be a curious move for you, and may trigger a bet, one would say.
6:56
By the way, uh, the other news yesterday, we obviously, when we were on, Terry McLaurin, the incomparable one, signed with Washington, three years, 96 million with incentives.
7:03
And then after the show, Trey Hendrickson gets his one-year deal with the Bengals, a $14 million raise. He's gonna make 30 mil. Yep. Uh, as we know around here, Kelly Biddle money- [laughs]... is what we call that.
7:16
That's right. [laughs] Trey Hendrickson, one year with the Bengals. So Trey will rinse and repeat this next year. He'll just be able, he'll be a free agent to go anywhere he wants next year.
7:25
Um, and then the Steelers, Cam Hayward, who has two years with his, you know, left on his deal with Pittsburgh, but wants a new deal, it appears that that has been s- I don't know if it's been smoothed over, 'cause Cam hasn't really said, "I'm happy with this," but at least he is at practice, and Chris Boswell apparently, [laughs] who had a bit of a, a dispute, is, is playing as well.
7:43
I didn't know about the Chris Boswell thing. So that appears to be, and, and we kind of alluded to it yesterday, the Steelers don't mess around with stuff like this. Like, if you're under contract, you're under contract.
7:52
Yep. Um, and as we say, Cam Hayward's certainly long in the tooth as well, as great as he is.
7:57
So it appears that that will go okay for the Steelers, um, and that Cam Hayward will play against the Jets opening, uh, day, week one for the, uh, Pittsburgh Steelers. It appears that way, which leaves Micah. Yeah.
8:09
Micah and the Cowboys as the only real holdout, or hold in, whatever, call it now. Hold in, I guess it is, um, in his case, in all these.
8:16
Because remember, the reason that there are hold ins now and not hold outs is 'cause teams now, back in the day when you held out, teams could fine you, and then at the end of it, the player would just recoup it once they signed.
8:27
They'd be like, "Oh, we'll give you all that money back." You can't do that anymore. Yeah, right. So that's why it's hold ins now. That's why they show up, 'cause they- Which, which is-... can recoup their money...
8:34
which is way better, Gil, and obviously way less awkward, you know? Yeah. Like, 'cause we need Micah Parsons- That's right...
8:39
laying down on a training d- uh, a training table, not paying attention at all to a preseason game, 'cause, uh, yes, he's there so he can mentor the younger players or something like that.
8:47
I don't know what you thought about Hendrickson. I actually, I don't know if I thought this is how this was gonna go down yesterday, and I think this is very, very, very lucky for the Bengals. Oh, it's super lucky.
8:58
Because he's kinda like the McLaurin conversation, right? It is a little bit lost. Like, Trey Hendrickson's not a young dude.
9:04
Like, I th- I think a lot of people forget all the years he was in New Orleans before he even got to Cincinnati.
9:09
Um, it's not like he's a young guy, so I'm sure they were on the fence just because from the age side of things and how much you're gonna pay this, uh, guy. And okay, now what are you getting?
9:18
You're getting Trey Hendrickson basically in a contract year, pissed off [laughs] on the field. Like, great. Who, who led the NFL- Yes... in sacks last year with 17 and a half.
9:26
Believe he had 17 and a half the year before as well. Um, what was he, 11 to one? I don't know what he is now for, to lead the league in sacks.
9:32
Um, real quick before we, uh, before we move on here, we, uh, have some tennis plays. Yesterday did not go well in the end. Yesterday looked like it could've been a monster morning.
9:42
Uh, hit the two to one on Adam Walton against Hugo Humbert, came really close to hitting the plus 331, but no cigar on Johanitat against, uh, Samsonova.
9:54
And then the, the other two plays later in the day, quite frankly, weren't good at all, which is a, an oddity for us really on hardcourt. So it was a, you know, it was a one unit and change losing day.
10:03
Let that be the worst that happens to us at the US Open. Today, four more picks, happens to be two more on the ladies' side, two more on the men's side. Uh, don't plan it this way.
10:11
It's wherever the numbers lead, and all this is data-driven. Uh, Elena Vesnina. Let's, let's talk about the, uh, the ladies' side. Whoa. Elena Vesnina. Sure, yeah. Vesnina. Yep. Plus 142 against Anastasija Sakharova.
10:25
Well done. Could be Sakharova. You know, you never know. I think it's Sakharova. Uh, Vesnina, experience advantage, should wear down Sakharova. Sakharova having, uh, problems with her serve as well.
10:37
So Vesnina at plus 142, and then Laura Siegemund plus 230 versus Diana Schneider. Uh, Schneider is coming off a tournament win in Monterrey. That's not California, that's Mexico.
10:50
Uh, but Siegemund is one of these players, she's awkward. Um, and I'm, I don't know. Sometimes when a player wins a tournament, they're just not quite as g- By the way, Schneider's numbers are not great.
11:00
The Monterrey win kinda came out of nowhere. I think Siegemund's awkwardness wins here, plus 230. That's a big dog. So Vesnina plus 142, Siegemund plus 230.
11:09
And then on the men's side, and this is the one that starts the earliest. This starts in a little less than the hour. Everything else is after the show. But Martin Fucsovics plus 108 against Denis Shapovalov.
11:19
Um, Fucsovics, great numbers on hardcourts. Shapov has not been great currently. Never great in the US Open.
11:26
By the way, Fucsovics just won Winston Salem, so I hope he doesn't have a drop-off that I'm expecting from Schneider. And then Tristan Schoolkate, big dog against Lorenzo Sonego.
11:33
Sonego has not been on top form, in top form, and Schoolkate beat Fonseca back in, uh, Canada, I believe it was, at plus 206. So Vesnina and Siegemund on the ladies' side, Fucsovics and Schoolkate on the men's side.
11:47
Coming back right here on the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting net- [upbeat music]
11:58
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Back on a Numbers Game, un partido de numeros for those listening in Spanish. Although some say fuego. It's a whole thing. See, we get, uh, tweets that beaty the book.
12:11
Ryan Hyatt, uh, tweeted this yesterday during the third hour. He goes, "Just wanted you to know that you're still on the air. It sounds just like you're doing a show, even heard you visit with Wes Reynolds.
12:18
Didn't know if y'all knew the mics were hot still," he said. And Trip Tepper, "Scary Terry signs, Numbers Game gets a third hour, and the Cowboys are a dysfunctional mess.
12:26
This could be the best Monday for Gil since the day after Iga conquered Wimbledon. Congrats on the continued success of a Numbers Game." Thank you. That's very nice.
12:34
Listen, every time anybody comes out of the stu- uh, out, uh, you know, outside of the studio and, uh, says, "Oh," says, "We really enjoy the show," I always say this. You know what? You know why we enjoy it so much?
12:42
'Cause Kelly Bilin makes it a blast, ladies and gentlemen. This guy right here makes it a blast. Oh, thanks, man. You do. It's very true. You deserve your propers.
12:50
Hey, man, this is the, uh, I think the biggest compliment that, that I get every when it, when, or the biggest compliment you can give us is w- it's the, "Hey, it just sounds like I'm hanging out, talking to m- w- uh- That's right...
13:00
with my buds about betting." And that's, that's, that's what it's always try- uh, we always try to make it sound like, right? Yeah, for sure. All right.
13:05
I've, I've got, I think I've narrowed down what the money, the, the Borchardt Moneyline parlay could be. Oh, I was gonna read a couple more tweets, but sure, go ahead. Launch into it. All right. What do you got?
13:15
So, so I don't wanna break it, I don't wanna, I don't wanna ruin it for the audience yet- [laughs] I bet... but he's got a shirt on. Oh, I see.
13:21
And I said, "I, he's gotta find, I gotta find the dance partner for who the Moneyline parlay." I think it's gonna be, I think it's gonna be Toronto is gonna be the other side.
13:31
So, so he's w- we, he's wearing a Dodgers shirt, which we will reveal now.
13:34
Ladies and gentlemen, Mark Borchardt from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, base winner, basewinner.com, and of course, he does his Bet US show each and every morning talking Major League Baseball.
13:44
He's wearing a Dodgers shirt. Our little graphic is covering that up. Uh, Kelly is predicting a Dodgers-Blue Jays parlay from you today. Is that correct?
13:53
You know, Gil, the only reason I wore the Dodgers shirt today is to bring out the blue in my eyes. [laughs] So I, I kinda, I ki- I ki- I kinda threw him off a little bit. But I think we can talk about the Dodgers.
14:04
I mean, that's probably the most exciting thing in baseball. You know, Gil, it seems like these playoff races are, are pretty well set in stone, at least for me, by my numbers, by my simulations.
14:15
So, uh, but that is an exciting race. That's a good race over there in the West, Gil. [laughs] You ever gir- ever have a girl say that to you in college?
14:20
You're like, "Yeah, you, your sh- whatever color you're wearing bring, makes your eyes look that color." They ever say that to you? No? No? Just me? Absolutely. Yeah. All the time. Yeah. Um, okay.
14:29
So what, let's start with your plays. What, what are your plays today? Well, I'm gonna go h- with the p- speaking of the parlay, we're gonna go, uh, with the Brewers, and I like Mierzowski in.
14:40
So this gives it, like, a handicapping, like, philosophy or tenet. How much is enough from a sample size? Well, he's had eight games. He's been really, really good in those eight games, Gil.
14:50
In fact, he's my number four-rated, uh, base winner pitcher, uh, with a 40% run suppression number, and that's based on strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball rate.
15:01
So I think that, like, you know, there, there's a little bit of trepidation, uh, for me on him because i- it's, it's eight starts, but it's been eight really, really good starts.
15:09
So that's the first leg, Gil, uh, of the parlay. And then the second one, I'm just, I just wanna get it to plus money. I wanna get...
15:15
It, basically I'm trying to get this Brewers game to plus money, and I, I think I'm gonna go with the Astros with Hunter Brown.
15:21
I, I just, you know, you hate to say, a- a- and I'm kinda going against my model on this, but my, my model says there's value with the Rockies.
15:28
I just, I'm gonna go against it, and I'm gonna make the second leg, uh, the Astros, Gil. And, and that pays about plus 117, and that's good enough for me. I think these are two solid games.
15:37
Uh, you know, particularly the Diamondbacks, I wanted to bring this out because I was looking at this Diamondbacks bullpen, and I don't think I've ever seen anything like this, Gil. They have, so they have
15:48
eight guys in their bullpen. None of them have a strikeout percentage. These are relievers, mind you. None of them have a strikeout percentage of greater than, uh, uh, 21%.
15:58
And I just, I've never really seen that, and s- it's just, it's an amazingly bad, uh, bullpen. As bad as the Rockies are, the Diamondbacks are worse. Worst bullpen in baseball, Gil.
16:07
So gonna take a little bit of action against that.
16:10
Um, let me digress to something you said there 'cause I think there's a, there's an interesting handicapping point you were just about to make, or you started to make it.
16:15
Maybe you did make it, which is what constitutes a big enough sample size to sort of have a conviction to make a bet.
16:23
And those of us who have lived on FanGraphs for as long as we have, uh, you to this day, me back in the day, for sure, it was, like, the only thing I did for years, and it's always that interesting question because you wanna be cognizant, oh, is it a meaningful sample size?
16:38
On the other hand, there's these things called betting lines that, you know, v- once it is a sample size for everybody to buy into, those betting lines or the, the edge is gone.
16:48
So I can remember, like, when Jacob De- remember Jacob deGrom's first season before people really got who Jacob deGrom was. That was the sample size question, right?
16:57
Like, he had only pitched a few times, but the advanced stats backed up what we were seeing so well that it was almost like sample size, schmample schmize, I'm playing this guy, and it was just an ATM machine.
17:09
So that is a bit of art as opposed to science on this, isn't it?
17:13
Well, it's a tough call, and I think, and the other thing, too, is you don't wanna be too subjective on it, Gil, because what happens is you wanna be able to go back and analyze your, y- your, your data.
17:25
The what's working for me, what's not working for me. And if you, i- if you're gonna use eight games for one guy and four games for another guy and 12 games for... I mean, so the data's gonna be super inconsistent.
17:35
So I, I try to, like, I, I use 17 games as my magic number, and it's, it's, it's not any more magical than if you use 13 or 14. It's just, I think, the most ideal number to use for me, and I get a median.
17:48
But then I can go ahead and backtrack and see, well, how is this, how is this working? And the numbers are gonna be consistent when you, when you pull your data and you pull your results. So but you're right.
17:57
I mean, you, it's like I pick 17. If you picked 11, would, would I p- Would I dis- disagree vehemently with you? No. Yeah. So, uh, but bas- it's, it's really good, and I, I think, so he's got eight, and it's been good.
18:08
The numbers have been really good for him. And I think he's, uh, got like a 37.3, uh, strikeout percentage. Uh, that's a median average, and that, that's the highest on the board today. So I always like that.
18:19
I, I was actually right. I s- I s- said that off the top of my head, and that's what it is.
18:22
The, the other one, not to get too nerdy here with people, but, but since this came up, the, the other one I hear people, uh, cite sometimes, they cite BVP, batter versus pitcher stats.
18:31
And I always say, "Man, if it's not like 50 at bats, it's not a meaningful sample size." Is that kind of a number you use as well? Oh, for sure. I can't even go there.
18:41
You know, uh, ISO power stabilizes at like 250 plate appearances. Now, what's good about this is that you can group pitchers. So let's say, I'll just take a random guy on the board, Nick Martinez.
18:51
Well, there's probably six or seven pitchers like Nick Martinez, and then you can group them and get a bigger sample size.
18:56
So I like more what, what the guy does over, uh, say 300 p- plate appearances versus a, a group of five or six pitchers. That, to me, would be a little bit more powerful, Gil.
19:07
This is, this is what me and Mark used to do at spring training games while the game was going on. It's all we used to talk about. No, it's fascinating. Make up metrics and stuff. Well, it's fascinating. Yeah.
19:14
I think it's fascinating 'cause we do, you do this stuff with tennis. Yeah.
19:17
I do this stuff with golf, and it's a, you know, it's, it's recent form versus, you know, course history or opponent history, st- stuff like that, right? But if you go 50, 50 plate appearances back- Yeah...
19:28
yeah, how far back might you be going, right? And so how much has the pitch- uh, the pitcher changed since then? You never know. Mark, Mark, what was the, uh, LL Cool J one that we came up with l- uh, with the managers?
19:39
A long leash cool M. Yes. LL Cool M. LL Cool M. You know, how, how, how quickly they pull. And we did, we did expected fielding [laughs] in- That's right...
19:48
no, no, expected, um, like fielding, uh, base runs, expected base runs allowed. We did that. Yeah, that was, that was a good one. Now you know why the ladies look in his eyes and say, "Your eyes look so blue today."
19:58
That's right. [laughs] That kind of talk. Uh, anything else besides that parlay, besides the, uh, Brewers-Astros parlay? Do you have a straight bet for us today?
20:05
Yeah, um, I think Cincinnati plus a run and a half minus 130 is a decent idea. Uh, Kershaw is still, I'm still not sold on this guy, Gil.
20:14
You look at, talk about strikeout percentage, of all the pitchers on the board, uh, he's the lowest today, and so that's a two percentile, uh, 12.5% median strikeout percentage. That's awful. Pr- [laughs] I mean, it's...
20:28
And the thing is, his location number, this is Eno Sarris, he does this location number too, 22 percentile. So I, I don't know.
20:34
I think maybe some of his results have been better than some of his underlying stuff, and it's just more of a play against him than anything else. And, and I'm gonna go with Cincinnati plus one and a half, Gil.
20:43
Cincinnati plus one and a half on the run line against the Dodgers today. And by the way, shout out to you, Dodgers up a game. You've never, you've never swayed from you think the Dodgers are winning this division.
20:51
Uh, still up a game after, after swaying with two losses heading into Sunday this past weekend against the Padres.
20:58
Well, actually, I kind of [laughs] I kind of waffled a little bit because I put out, a couple weeks ago on, on, on the MLB show, I put out the Padres at plus 750, but I thought that the value was, was pretty good there.
21:10
In fa- you know, I just ran it today, this morning, and it looks like, for me, I, it's 50/50. The Dodgers, 49.3% chance- Oh... and the Padres 50.7. Oh, there is a little favor.
21:21
So I, I, you know, that, that's, that's exciting with the, with... Um, 'cause we don't have much. You know, they, they, they open up these, these playoff positions that I, I think it's pretty well set in stone.
21:31
I mean, I don't even think there's a... Maybe the, you know, the Mets versus the Reds, but I, I don't, I don't even think that's close, Gil. Real quick before you go, uh, home run lead this year in Major League Baseball.
21:41
Cal Raleigh hits his 50th yesterday. Uh, extends the record for catchers. Only he and Mickey Mantle have hit 50 now as switch hitters. Uh, he's six or seven shy now of the, uh, of the franchise record for the Mariners.
21:53
That, uh, Junior had 56, I think, back in the day. Raleigh with 50 homers minus 400 to lead the league in homers when all is said and done.
22:01
Shohei and Kyle Schwarber each with 45, both at plus 425, and Aaron Judge, who's 10 back now, at 30 to one. Any bet besides Cal Raleigh, or you stay away from this entirely?
22:13
I think Raleigh gets it, but, you know, Aaron Judge could go on a tear. I think 30 to one, I, I would do that, Gil. Ooh. I would go 30 to one Aaron Judge, yeah. That's why we asked. I thought you might say that. Oh.
22:24
10 back with roughly 30 games to play. You know what? I should definitely play that, actually, since I have the Judge... I'm loaded up on Judge no triple crown. This man will make any Yankees bet that you want.
22:35
I got a lot of Yankees bets. Got a lot of Yankees bets. [laughs] Son a gun. I know. It's Mr. Yankees. Uh, Mark, always a pleasure, man. Thank you so much. Gil, my pleasure. Take it easy.
22:44
Base Winner, @basewinner on Twitter, basewinner.com, Bet US show. Let's get to the Raiders and some tennis next. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do.
22:54
He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
23:02
We sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Whichever way you're taking us in, we sure do appreciate it.
23:10
Kelly's still waiting for somebody to do all of them at the same time. Yep. Good luck. Is there a prize involved in that, by the way? I'll give you a high five. Oh, that's big. It's big.
23:20
Uh, still to come here, Drew Dinsick standing by. Um, gotta talk US Open and NFL with him. Not to mention Dr. Bob a little later on. College football, baby. His top five, and how far ahead his one is from two.
23:36
I'm gonna guess it's a big separation from the way you've been teasing it. Yeah. One team way out in front, huh? I'm, I'm, I'm on the edge of my seat. Yeah, I think relatively speaking to the market, yeah. Okay.
23:45
For, for Bob. By the way, real, real quick couple tweets here. Uh, Chris Heath, "Work ethic was already low for me, especially from 8:00 to 9:00, but now I'm deemed useless till 10:00." Thank you, Chris. Um,
23:57
sorry about your productivity.
23:58
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, shout out to Cleveland for failing to score a single run," talking about the Guardians here, "in three straight games, helping us to hopefully cash our season long under, which also sets up nicely tonight for a no runs first wager."
24:09
First inning, I think he's talking about. Um, yes, Guardians just every night. Just keep dying, Guardians. Go away. Season win total under.
24:16
The reason that that matters so much to me, by the way, people are like, "What is, what is that one bet?" I don't think we've ever missed a top MLB season win total pre-flop on this show in all our years.
24:25
That has been the most consistently good bet throughout the years. Nice. Yeah. What do you know about Throughout the Years by Curtis Blow? Anything about that? Oh, Bieber.
24:35
Do we talk about, before we get to Drew, real quick- [laughs] Just, do you see this Justin- Yes... Bieber imposter- Yes... that showed up at XS?
24:42
XS is the club in between the Win and the Encore, and he, they basically thought he was Justin Bieber for a, a, was it a half hour before they took him offstage? I, I think it was a, a significant amount of time, yes.
24:52
And I believe there was a whole back- background pre- I don't know. I read something really quick on it.
24:56
It's the tape that's all with the greatest of, but it was the, I think there was prep involved with him, like h- pretending to have a marketing agency reach out or something like that. That's unbelievable.
25:05
And then he had, you know, a whole crew with him. And yeah, he got up on stage, and it, I, I think it was a, a longer amount of time than it should be before someone, uh, realized, "That is really not Justin Bieber.
25:16
Get him down." How does that go down? Does a fan notice it and convey it to somebody? Does security notice it and start, like, holding the, their earpieces in, like, "I don't believe this is Justin."
25:24
Like, who- No, it's got, it's gotta be one of those it takes, like, 20 people and then they start talking to each other, right? [laughs] 'Cause you don't wanna be the first one.
25:31
You can't be like, "Hey, I don't think that's really Justin Bieber up there." Like, what if you're wrong? It's like, "He looks a little too thick." [laughs] "He's a little too buff." Anyway, that's awesome.
25:42
What a, what a great prank, and the fact that he, that this dude for, like, 30 minutes gets to sing and dance on stage. I, it's ama- it's amazing. Who, if, if it was Bidlin, who would you, like, who would you...
25:51
If Preston Johnson had a concert, you could do that. [laughs] Yeah, I was gonna say. Yeah. I don't know who else I could, [laughs] yeah. Drew Dincic comes to us from a, uh, from a very interesting location.
25:59
He is whale_capper on Twitter. Of course, the co-host of NBC Sports Bet The Edge and the Deep Dive podcast, which is Dincic classic. He does the latter with Andy Molator, and NBC Sports Bet The Edge with Jay Croucher.
26:10
He is at an NBC Sports headquarters today. Drew joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, man? Where are you? Oh, great, man. We're all traveling.
26:20
No, I, believe it or not, I, uh, spent, uh, some time with Kelly over the weekend. We had that same conversation about the fake Bieber. [laughs] I can't believe you brought it up. Fake Bieber.
26:30
Drew, who would you be- If w- Who would you be able to, uh, do that for? What artist or what, what celebrity could you m- Kenny G. I was mistaken for Josh Groban before in Las Vegas. [laughs] Start singing like him?
26:41
That would be fantastic. [laughs] Hey, that- I'm not joking. I was mistaken for Josh Groban one time. That's hilarious. Right, but y- the thing is, you could, that guy could imitate Bieber.
26:50
Can you imagine if Drew tried to knock, knock off Groban? That'd be fantastic. [laughs] I don't know. Maybe you have a beautiful voice. I shouldn't say that. Uh, you're at NBC headquarters. Thanks, Barato.
26:59
NBC headquarters where, Drew, and why? Uh, we're at, I'm in, uh, up in Stamford, Connecticut, uh, NBC Sports HQ. Um, this is our annual, uh, all hands on deck talent summit, you know.
27:12
The football season's about to start. We gotta get all of our ducks in a row, um, you know, really talk through strategy. Are we, are we taking on the right parts of the space?
27:21
Are we providing the bettors with the actionable information that they need?
27:25
Um, you know, and, uh, I think ultimately, uh, it's just honestly a good chance to meet in person with all the folks I work with day to day, uh, who otherwise I, I never get a chance to see.
27:35
Now, I assume, this is just a little broadcasting insider here, 'cause I, I'm interested in this. Uh, I assume it's not, "Maria, you're out. Maria Taylor, you're out. Drew Dincic's in."
27:43
What is the, what is the gambling element of this? Where does, in your, in your opinion right now, where does NBC stand on incorporating betting into football broadcasts?
27:55
Well, uh, I think with football, there's still a little bit of, like, you know, we want, they're towing the line and trying not to just be all in, all, all in all the time because it's such an enormously huge and important product, and if they alienate the audience and the, uh, Sunday night football, you know, is affected in any way, like, that, it's the most valuable property here, and maybe one of the most valuable properties in all of entertainment, honestly.
28:20
And, uh, you know, I think the fascinating thing that I'm interested to learn about while I'm here is, um, you know, that NBC is rolling out NBA coverage. Um, I'm fired up to know what my role in that is gonna be. Yes.
28:33
Uh, it is heavily supported by, um, you know, the partnerships with, uh, sports books. And so the betting i- is going to surely be, uh, you know, a meaningful part of the NBA, uh, strategy and coverage.
28:47
And, uh, I think that's gonna be, uh, that's gonna be pretty fascinating. And then the Olympics is sort of the other end of the spectrum. Like, the IOC is, like, phew, ha- hands-off.
28:57
Like, absolutely no, um, you know, no, uh, you know, kind of crossover there.
29:03
So, uh, it's really interesting how they're, they're doing their best to sort of silo everything so that they can keep all the stakeholders happy. Good for you, man.
29:11
I ho- uh, man, I hope that it just raises your profile, uh, in all this. The last thing, I guess, would be golf. Is, is there... How does that stand right now?
29:22
I think right now there's no, like, hardcore deal, uh, for golf and gambling. So it's- Yeah... that one I think is gonna stay, uh, you know, pretty traditional.
29:31
And, uh, you know, I think, um, I mean, it, it, it is kind of wild, though, that you have something like golf and Olympics, which, where there's relatively little, um, crossover, and then you have something like the Kentucky Derby, [laughs]
29:46
you know? Right. Which is- All in... that's all that matters. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. It's, it, it's interesting how, how major networks will navigate all this. And, uh- Yeah... y- you've been really honest.
29:58
Uh, you, you were on Tim Lawson's, uh, podcast a couple years ago, and it was really interesting about h- and you were super honest about it, where it's like, okay, even if they did, let's take the football one, even if they did decide Okay, we're gonna step up the gambling element of this.
30:12
We're gonna be more open about lines and that sort of thing. You were super honest about even if they do that, maybe it's not people like us that they want being the face of that.
30:23
Maybe they want Chris Simms, right, to be the guy, or whomever the else they have on, on set there, a more familiar mainstream characters. Do you still feel that way?
30:32
Sh- well, I think ultimately a lot of the folks who were, would have dipped their toe in the water and talked gambling, um, either didn't like it or decided it wasn't really, uh, you know, for them. Uh, and so they've...
30:47
You know, anyone who was sort of in the, in the, uh, on the periphery, like, "I might start getting involved in the gambling side of things," I think has really walked it back.
30:54
Um, and you know, you have, I think, a, a, a pretty, you know, kind of course adjustment to, you know, "These are our experts who cover this topic. If and when we need, uh, content, we are gonna go to them."
31:07
Uh, and that's sort of the current state of things. I would say that, um, uh, you know, I...
31:12
There are ebbs and flows of, like, what main- we, you know, what is popular mainstream, and certainly with, like, the political environment shifting a little bit.
31:20
I, and, you know, there's, there was, at the Super Bowl for instance, there was a pretty clear, I thought, anti-gambling slant with a lot of the people who were there covering NFL. Hmm.
31:32
Like, um, and I, and it may just be that, you know, they were tired of seeing the ads. They were tired, you know, they, they, they signed up for sports betting.
31:40
You know, people in general were signing up for sports betting accounts, burning through their bankroll, and then they, uh, and unhappy with the experience.
31:47
And you know, so there was, there was certainly a little bit of, um, you know, kind of macro pushback I felt like at the Super Bowl because two years ago at the Super Bowl it was like gambling was everything, right?
31:58
And then they go to Vegas, and, like, the biggest... You saw, you know- Yeah... you know, VSiN has a huge, uh, presence there.
32:04
The biggest presence of the whole, you know, FanDuel and DraftKings had gigantic setups there. You know, and it's like that, that to me at least it felt like it was waning a bit at the last Super Bowl.
32:15
And, um, and then, you know, surely we have a kind of a weird, um, you know, anti-gambling consensus with pushing into, you know, the, uh, the, um, you know, the law forward where you can't write off your, you know, your, you know, 90% of your losses.
32:30
Mm-hmm. So it's, uh, there's, there's certainly something in the air right now that's, uh, that's a little bit, uh, transitory.
32:36
But, um, but ultimately the fact that NBC got the NBA rights package, um, and that that's gonna be broadly supported by, you know, with DraftKings is gonna, it's, it's, you know, it's gonna be embraced, and it's gonna be fascinating to see how that plays out.
32:51
I can sense that that's what you are the most excited about. Like, that would be, uh- [laughs] Well, yeah... yeah, yeah. And, and I, I can sense it from Kelly sitting next to me.
32:58
That would be v- a, a really different feel than the ni- uh, we're still gonna have John Tesh's music. [laughs] I love it. But- John Tesh has still got it. Yeah. That's a great commercial.
33:07
[laughs] But, but, uh, yeah, we'll see how, uh, how betting is incorporated into that. Well, good for you, man. I ho- I hope it all works out.
33:14
Real quick before the break, US Open, do we have tennis plays, uh, left today? Uh, I am against Coco Gauff tonight. Ooh. Not to lose, but I think, uh, Tomljanovic takes a set from her.
33:28
Um, I'm into that at plus 210, uh, for Tomljanovic to, to plus point and a half sets. Um, ultimately, uh, you know, I, I'm not worried about the moment.
33:39
Tomljanovic going toe-to-toe with Serena in her last ever match on, you know, Arthur Ashe is all I kinda need to know that she's not gonna be, uh, you know, uh, shrink in the moment.
33:48
So, uh, you combine that with the fact that Coco Gauff's transition right now from coaching and her physical, uh, and just f- you know, faulting, uh, issues are all very real.
33:59
Um, four and five since she wins the French Open. Uh, you know, like, there's, there's a lot of, uh, signal right now that it's just not clicking for Coco.
34:07
So if she drops a set to Tomljanovic, I'll be there to pick up the pieces. Yeah, including a change of coach minutes before the tournament. Um, minutes, I'm being, uh, I'm exaggerating, but days before the tournament.
34:18
Um, more tennis with Drew on the other side, what- uh, whatever else he might be playing today. Uh, we'll run some tennis props at the US Open by him as well. And then any late NFL thoughts from him? Late bets. Oh.
34:29
Something that he's come to in the wee hours, nine days before the regular season begins. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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35:28
Bob Kelly and I having, uh, discussions on weight loss and all kinds of things on the other side. Simultaneously having a text message conversation with Montesano about her. That's right.
35:37
It's just- It's no time for small talk, though. We got a lot to get to with, uh, Dr. Bob. Bob, thank you for joining us once again, courtesy of the Progressive Gas Line. Dr. Bob Sports, how many years you been doing Dr.
35:47
Bob Sports, Bob? 38. 38. Yeah. That's more, that's more than half your life, man. Yeah. 38 years. Wow. Yeah. Well. All right, let's, uh, no time to lose.
35:58
Uh, the other two season win total unders that you'd like to share are? Well, Buffalo under seven and a half, uh, wins.
36:06
Now, Buffalo was nine and four last season, and they do think they'll be better this season, but they're not gonna be nine and four.
36:12
Last year's nine and four is about the phoniest nine and four I've ever seen They were outgained in the regular season, I didn't include their game against Liberty when Liberty had all their stars out of the game for the bowl game.
36:22
So in the, in the regular season, they're outgained by an average of 50 total yards per game and 5.3 to 5.7 yards per play.
36:29
So they were outgained, but they went eight and four in the regular season anyway, despite being outplayed from the line of scrimmage by at least five points. I have a line of scrimmage metric for each game.
36:39
They were outplayed b- from the line of scrimmage by at least five points in eight of the 13 games for the season, eight of their 12 regular season games.
36:46
They were more like a five and eight team than a nine and four team last season, being plus nine in turnovers helped. But here's the thing, they were outgained by.4 yards per play in the regular season.
36:55
The teams they faced, the FBS teams that they faced last year would get outgained by 1.6 yards per play by an average FBS team. They had one of the easiest schedules in the country last year.
37:08
A normal team would be outgained by 1.6 yards per play.
37:11
They were outgained by.4 yards per play against those teams, so they were 2.0 yards per play worse than an average team, one of the worst teams in the country, but they went nine and four.
37:22
So they are gonna be better this year, but they were terrible last year and somehow won nine games, and I think that's being overpriced into their win total. Uh, they look like a six and a half win team to me.
37:33
I predict 6.5 wins and recommend going under 7.5 at minus 125 or better. All right, and to round it out, you have a, you have another under seven and a half wins on UTSA. Yeah. Super pessimistic today.
37:45
Uh, UTSA under seven and a half wins up to minus 145. Overrated team. They were six and six in the regular season last year.
37:51
They got a free bowl win against Coastal Carolina, whose all their key players skipped the game.
37:55
So excluding the bowl game and excluding their FCS, uh, win against Houston Christian, which is horrible, Roadrunners were outgained by, by 0.3 yards per play, 5.7 to 6.8 yards per play, uh, by teams that would get outgained by an average of.8 yards per play against an average FBS team.
38:12
So they were 1.1 yards per play worse than an average team, yet still people think they're good. They're not good. The biggest thing was they had a plus nine per play, a plus 9.0 play differential last year.
38:25
Play differentials tend to regress towards the mean. They're not gonna be plus 9.0 in play differential. Part of that was their defense allowing 31.2 on third down conversions.
38:36
They, other than that, in the last seven years, they've never been lower than 37.3% conversions on third down defense. So that's gonna regress back up.
38:44
Um, and play difference also will decrease because UTSA gave up a lot of big plays last year. That's not likely to happen.
38:49
Of course, not giving up big plays is gonna help their defense, even though they have just two starters returning. I do think the pass defense will be better, but the run defense is gonna be, not be as good.
38:58
Martavius French had 16 stuffed runs behind the line of scrimmage last year, most in the country. He's gone. Uh, their star, Jamory Robinson's gone, 10 and a half sacks and six and a half other tackles for loss.
39:08
Their best defensive back, Zhaff Frazier, had 15 passes defended with six interceptions. He's gone. Like I said, two returning starters on defense. So overall, they're not gonna be as good defensively.
39:17
Should be a little bit better o- better than, better offensively, but they were an overrated team last year. I think they're an overrated team this year.
39:24
Uh, I predict 6.0 wins for UTSA, under seven and a half, up to minus 145. Okay. Four-pack of unders. Bob betting against human achievement.
39:35
Oregon under 10 and a half, um, up to, what is it, up minus 200 or so is what it is right now. Still a good play. Yep. Yep. Buffalo under seven and a half. UTSA under seven and a half.
39:45
Jacksonville State under six and a half, but that, that number is, uh, that number varies, but unders on Jacksonville State. Um, okay, let's throw in a week one play real quick here, a bonus play.
39:58
Uh, this one is up to six points, but you still like Utah State against UTEP, laying the wood? Yeah, I, I, I like this one a lot. Utah State I released at minus four. It went up to six.
40:07
It's still a best bet to me at minus six.
40:10
If there were odds on Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, then Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes, f- if you can find odds on Conference [chuckles] Player of the Year in the Mountain West, then throw some money on Bryson Barnes as a nice long shot pick.
40:22
Uh, a decent passer. This guy was recruited at, at Utah and got thrown into the mix when, uh, when their quarterback got hurt.
40:29
So he got, he played basically a full season as starter in 2023 at Utah, did okay considering the level of competition he was facing. And last year at Utah State, he averaged 6.2 yards per play.
40:39
That's fine, but where he's very good is running the ball. In his l- in his two starts at the end of last season when he took over at quarterback, he ran for 393 yards in the final two games of the season.
40:51
And he got 1,100 ground yards on 147 career runs, not including sacks, seven and a half yards per run play for Barnes. This guy is gonna go wild. He's gonna run the ball. They're gonna let him run. He's a decent passer.
41:05
Like I said, he was, he was recruited by Utah and started for them. So he is a capable passer. I think he's gonna improve in that area. So I think the offense is going to be very good. Defense is terrible.
41:15
UTEP's defense is terrible. Um, so [chuckles]
41:18
I, uh, I, I just think Utah State's got a much better offense, two bad defenses, and, uh, I like Utah State minus six or less, and even up to six and a half or a half unit if you're, if you're seeing six and a half.
41:29
Okay, let's get to the Dr. Bob preseason top five rankings in all of college football. Let's start with five, Bob. Uh, number five, I, I ended up with, uh, Georgia at five. I think they might be slightly overrated.
41:42
Uh, the offense should be okay. Uh, the, the pass game was a little bit down last season. I think Stomping got, he got a little bit of experience last year.
41:51
I think they'll be about the same in the pass game, uh, this year, maybe slightly worse than running, but overall, pretty good offense, about the same as last year. I think the defense is gonna be better.
42:00
They had kind of a down year in pass defense last year. It was a little bit weird.
42:04
I think they've, they stockpiled some talent, so I have Georgia being better this year, but maybe slightly overrated compared to what the, what everybody else thinks, but I have them fifth. Okay.
42:12
Number four, I'm gonna guess Penn State. It is Penn State, and I'm below the market on Penn State because I don't trust Drew Allar. I mean- A couple years ago, he just did not throw the ball down the field.
42:25
I think it was something like less than 20% completions on throws of 15 yards or more, ARRs, it was just terrible.
42:31
And last year, he relied on his tight end, Tyler Warren, oh, so much that the wide receivers were so frustrated being wide open all the time in this great offensive system, that they all transferred [laughs] to Penn State.
42:46
You know, knowing they have a national championship caliber team, those wide receivers transferred because they weren't getting the ball, 'cause he's afraid to throw it down the field.
42:54
Now, this offense, as good as it was last year with two great running backs and, and, and they just have a great offensive coordinator is the thing. Uh,
43:04
Pelini was just as good at Kansas the previous two years with lesser talent than he was last year at Penn State.
43:11
So Kansas had better offenses in the previous two years under the same offensive coordinator than Penn State had last year when he... So I'm just not a Drew Allar fan.
43:19
He needs to start throwing the ball down the field, and he can't, he can't rely on Tyler Warren to catch 104 passes this year, 'cause that guy's in the NFL. So I think Penn State's a little overrated. All right.
43:28
Three's always the most interesting one. I'm gonna guess it's an, it's an outlier per the market. What do you got? No, I, I, it's Alabama. I just, I...
43:37
You know, he's, uh, he's got his, uh, he's got his, the offense was really inconsistent last year. The defense wasn't up to normal standards for Alabama.
43:46
But the, uh, offensive coordinator, uh, that was so successful, uh, for DeBoer in Washington is back. So, um, he's reunited with Ryan Grubb, who spent a year in the NFL, but he's back.
43:58
So I think the offense is gonna be better, 'cause I like, you know, the offense coordinator more. And the defense, eight returning starters, basically eight returning starters.
44:05
They're not all returning, some of them are, are, are transfers that they plugged in, but the talent level on defense is very, very good. I think the defense will be better. Hmm.
44:14
I think the offense will be better, so Alabama's better, but everybody knows that. All right. So I don't think there's any value there. One minute left, Bob. They play each other Saturday, Texas and Ohio State.
44:23
Ohio State a one and a half, two-point favorite. Who do you have one, who do you have two, and by what margin? I have Ohio State second. I'm just, I think the passing game is a big question.
44:34
Best wide receivers in the country, obviously, but they don't have an experienced quarterback this year. And I remember a couple years ago when they did not have an experienced quarterback, the offense was not as potent.
44:44
Um, so I think, uh, it could be some growing pains this year for, uh, Julian Sand. Um, but obviously the defense is great. I don't think they're gonna be as dominant as they were last year.
44:56
They have just three returning starters, so the defense is still gonna be a very good defense, just not as good. I don't think the offense is gonna be as good. Ohio State takes a step back. Texas takes a step up.
45:06
I don't necessarily count on Arch Manning being that much better than Quinn Ewers throwing the ball. He could.
45:12
His metrics were a little bit better last season, but I think his running will help, and I think that the Texas defense will be a bit better. So I think Texas is the best team in the country.
45:22
Um, taking Texas versus Ohio State on Saturday? Yes, no? No. Not, not quite enough value there. Okay. Home team in week one tend to do pretty good. Ooh, interesting. So a little technical analysis takes him off that.
45:33
Bob, thank you. Appreciate it. Dr. Bob, everybody, Fridays here on The Numbers Game. Thank you, Bob. [upbeat music]
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