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Aug 26, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 26, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 26, 2026
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36:55
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Transcript
0:00
Paul Spoor joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Gas Line. You can find him on Twitter at Spoor, S-P-O-R-E-R. He's also, of course, the host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast. Uh, he works at FanGraphs.
0:11
He's also the content designer for Out of the Park Baseball. Joining us now for his 570th appearance on the sh- I have no idea how many he's been on, but it's gotta be in the 500 range, somewhere like that.
0:23
Paulie, good morning, sir. Good morning, Gilliam. Have you heard the phrase, "Judge me by my enemies"? Uh-huh. If Ricky Schroeder hates you, you're doing something right. [laughs] That's right.
0:32
That dude's a piece of human garbage, so awesome. Yes. I, the second that he says that he doesn't like me, yes. That means I'm crushing life- I get it... 'cause that guy's a complete loser. Yeah. Okay.
0:43
It might be 500 career appearances, but I'll tell you 2026 Paul Spoor has been something special. Yeah. He's co- he's coming in hot, like every week.
0:51
There is, there is something spe- when Paul Spoor gets animated about something- Yes... there's something special about it. I enjoy it thoroughly. Yeah. 'Cause he saves it for, for- Dolly was wonderful...
0:59
Dolly was wonderful. A, a, a true, you know, real like, uh, uh- A what?... positive force in the world as a celebrity. Could've been a billionaire for sure, guaranteed.
1:09
With the, with the way that she could have made money off of her likeness, could have easily been a billionaire. Didn't. Tried to give the money back. Obviously didn't give it all. She was super rich.
1:18
I'm not saying she was penniless, but she... Live like Dolly and you're on the right track, I guarantee that. 100%. Can we just say it? We'll call her an American treasure. Mm-hmm. That's exactly what she was.
1:29
Absolutely. Absolutely. An American treasure. Uh, okay, Paul, I, I don't mean to do this and I w- I promise I won't do this moving forward. This might be the last time I do this, but- Okay... uh, g- multiple choice.
1:39
The Tigers flirted with it. Oh. Then they swooned. I know they won last night, but it's, it's kind of- I know... it's kind of feeling like it's over. Um, are you- Yeah, it is... are you
1:51
A, pissed about it as a, as a Tigers fan, or are you B, do you revert back to what you were talking about last week, which is, "Nah, I ca- I can't even work up the, the rage because the bullpen sucks bad and we knew this would happen"?
2:04
Yeah, it's definitely the latter i, in a world where we, we go with the idea that they never address the bullpen.
2:11
I revert back to the pissed part where they could've, they could've straddled the line here and really done a one foot in, one foot out. Get some relief help in June or July. Go early in the market.
2:21
And I'm not talking big trade. I'm talking small trade/waiver wire. Just start churning in some different guys. People re- teams rebuild bullpens in-year all the time. It's not even that difficult.
2:33
You gotta, you gotta burn and churn a bit. Um, and they weren't burning and churning enough. So when you're not gonna do that and then you trade Mize and, and Skubal, again, I'm not necessarily against those moves.
2:43
I think you could've done both. If you rebuild the pen and even still trade one or both of them while still fostering a quality pen, they could still be in this. We see how close they are having traded both guys.
2:56
So it's less about trading Skubal and Mize and more about leaving the bullpen to be the garbage that it is.
3:03
And I, I don't know if I mentioned this with you or on a different spot, but Foolish Ba- Bailey, uh, a guy named Foolish Baseball, his name is actually Bailey, uh, did a video about the Tigers' bullpen and, and kind of laid a lot of it at the feet of A.J.
3:13
Hinch this year. And as much as I love his content- Hmm... I recommend everyone go watch his content, I don't agree. I simply don't think that he had the horses to work with.
3:23
So B- Bailey highlighted a bunch of instances where, uh, Hinch pushed a guy to a second, you know, second inning and all that, and then it blew up in his face.
3:30
Yeah, but for the last two years, every button press that Hinch made seemed to work with the bullpen. And throughout all three of these years, this year and the last two, the bullpen has been bad.
3:40
They've been bad, mediocre at best players that he's gotten the most out of for two years and it blew up in his face this year. Scott Harris has not given him a quality bullpen to work with.
3:50
And from the jump, I always had that skepticism about the Tigers, even at the very beginning of the year when I was dreaming of, you know, a big playoff run. Uh, we got on the... Well, well said.
4:01
I can't add anything to that. Uh, uh, on the group chat, we have a group chat, Steve Fezek, Todd Wishnev, Chris Felica, Will Hill, and I.
4:07
Will floated, actually, I don't know if he did on that chat or another one, but Will floated, he's like, "Ah, Royals, big streak. I mean, this is unbelievable. 100 to 1 to make the playoffs."
4:17
I'm like, and I immediately was like, "Nah, man. It's just too, they're still too far back." I mean, the Tigers themselves are four and a half out of a wild card. Right.
4:25
The Royals are eight back still, and there's too many teams in between them. 100 to 1, there still should be- That's-... another zero, right? I absolutely agree.
4:32
I was literally gonna say verbatim that, that too many teams and needs to add another zero, Gill. Yeah. So we are locked in this morning. Because after a win nine only gets you to eight out- [laughs] Yeah...
4:43
again, with the teams, no, I'm sorry, y- y- y- y- you don't wanna go there.
4:48
If you, you're gonna throw that money away, just give them my Venmo account, tell them that that's where they're putting the money, and I'll just take it. Yeah.
4:53
'Cause otherwise you're just burning it if you're putting anything on KC right now. I don't, I don't, yeah. And like you said- I don't, I don't think he was like- This is-...
4:59
steadfast about it, but he was just kind of throwing it out there. Yeah. Yeah, I, I wouldn't even do it as like a quarter unit, you know, little wild card play.
5:07
Because as you're gonna mention, and it's gonna be the way throughout the rest of this month and into September, the number of teams is gonna become more and more important.
5:15
Like, the games, we're gonna say, like, "Toronto's only three back." Yes, but four teams in front of them, that becomes a bigger problem than the games at a certain point.
5:24
We're not there yet, but the further we get into September, how many teams are in front of you will start to matter more than, than the three, four games that you are behind.
5:32
Uh, of all the teams that are on the outside looking in, and by the way- Mm-hmm... the last thing about the Royals thing, it's, it's just like the Tigers, right?
5:38
It's like no matter how well you're playing now- Exactly... you banked so many losses that the moment this win streak, like, goes into the tank, you're back to where- Yeah... you were.
5:48
That, you, you just- It was at a point- Yeah... not to go back to my Tigers, but, like, where they had to play perfectly, and every- Yes... loss felt catastrophic because, like, "Oh, you lost," but it was one loss.
5:57
You can't play that perfect, and the Royals built themselves even a bigger hole than the Tigers. So yeah, I agree. Who's the team on the outside looking in right now, uh, on either American League or National League?
6:06
Now, I know some of these are gonna, they're gonna have division chances too, so- Uh, r- right now on the outside looking in, Rangers, right, by a half game in the division, but one game out of the wild card.
6:16
Orioles two and a half back of the wild card. S- uh, Mariners three back of the wild card, closer for the division. Twinkies three back in the wild card. Blue Jays three back. Tigers four and a half.
6:27
And then in, in, in the NL, uh, Diamondbacks one back, Marlins four back, Cardinals five back. We'll close it there.
6:34
What, what's the one team of those, or maybe the one or two, where you're like, "This team is going to get there"? Like, I still have faith. There's 30, roughly 30 games left in the season, a little less.
6:44
I still think they have enough runway to do this. I want to say the Mariners, but I can't. I've moved off of them a bit more- That's exactly how I feel... of thinking like, "Hey- Yeah... they're just gonna get there."
6:54
Their defense sucks. A- a- and I'm not saying that like I figured it out and nobody else was saying that. But something I kept looking at, I was like, "Why are they struggling so much?"
7:02
Their offense was actually better this year. Played pretty well at home. Their pitching is supposed to be so good, and you're seeing somebody like George Kirby carrying like a 135 whip. So I started looking into it.
7:12
The defense is terrible. Infield and outfield, it's a big problem this year. I think it's undercovered, that that is hurting Seattle. I think that that kind of pushes them out.
7:20
So I come back to, like, the Orioles and the Twins, and I don't get the warm and fuzzies about either of them, but they've got a lot of talent, and I'm gonna go with the Orioles as the pick here with one key, you know, one big piece that could be really, really interesting.
7:33
You know Felix Bautista's working his way back, and if they add him to the bullpen at, you know, a pretty close to his peak level, that's gonna move everybody else down in terms of need, and that's gonna really lengthen their bullpen.
7:45
I think they have the offensive horses to do it already, Baltimore does. If they can strengthen that pen by getting Bautista back, I think they can make some noise. And then what? Four AL East teams?
7:54
That, I, I, I could see it. Yeah. I could totally see it. You and I are in lockstep 'cause I feel the exact same way about the Mariners, and you pointed it out. This is a Joe Peta thing, which he does so great.
8:03
What we don't capture is batted balls turned into outs, and how some- Yeah... teams are good at that and some teams just suck at that, if you get sort of granular. Last thing, B.
8:13
Earl Nelson, "Scoob will scheduled to start Friday night in Detroit. They gonna welcome him or are they gonna boo him?" Boo. Welcome him overwhelmingly. Anyone who boos is a loser. [laughs] You're a loser.
8:22
Thank you, Paulie. [laughs] Love this dude. Take care, guys. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
8:31
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
8:39
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Nick Whelan joins us now. He knows all about fantasy.
8:55
He is the co-host with Jeff Erickson of Prop Points, follows us each and every Monday through Friday, 1:00 PM Eastern, 10:00 AM Pacific here on the network. Nick joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
9:05
You can follow him on Twitter @Whelan, but substitute the number one for the letter L. Nick, before we get your thoughts on one of these other categories, would you like to issue a, uh...
9:13
I know you're coming into town tomorrow, uh, for the weekend. Mm-hmm. Would you like to issue a public apology for blowing off Kelly last, last year? Would you like to do that right now?
9:21
Uh, look, Kelly, we, we talked about this on the show last week. I gotta be honest, I have no memory of this. [laughs] I feel, I felt horrible in the moment. Gil, Gil told me, like, right before we came back from break.
9:30
He was rattled. So I had to, I had to do the whole segment with this, like, stewing in the back of my mind. Hey. I mean, I, look, I, I would be honored to, to hang out with you at Circa. Honored.
9:38
I can't believe that this was perceived as, as blowing off. Um, I will actually be at Circa later tonight. Oh, there you go. I'm heading out pretty much right after our show ends. Wow.
9:46
So I'll be landing about 6:30 local time. If, if you guys are, are scratching around the sportsbook, myself, Jeff Erickson, couple other RotoWire guys will be out there through Saturday.
9:56
A- and you guys are doing the normal, uh, podcast Radio Row again this year? Yeah. Well, we, we have, we have the final two shows of Prop Points before we hand it off to John Hanson.
10:05
So we'll be doing those live over at the D both tomorrow and Friday, and then we'll be hitting Radio Row.
10:10
We may or may not be getting a couple rounds of golf in while we're out there, and then, yeah, doing all the, the contest weekend events. Also, no apology ne- uh, needed at all, uh, Nick.
10:19
It was ju- it was funny that you- Well-... you were locked in professional mode. [laughs] That's all I noticed. And, like, Jeff was all giddy, like, to, like, be in Vegas, and I, that was where it was funny. Oh, yeah.
10:28
It was the contrast of you two. And it was completely wrong of me to lay that on you right before the segment. [laughs] He was just- Yeah... absolutely rattled. That's...
10:35
With a, with a heavy heart I had to give out some plays. Yeah.
10:37
[laughs] Yeah, I wanna ask you some fantasy questions courtesy of the great Danny Higgins, who will be leaving us this week, so he wants to get his final fantasy questions in.
10:45
But we were going through some season-long, uh, head-to-head, uh, passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns. We wanted to do receiving yards with you.
10:53
As a fantasy guy, if you had any thoughts on these head-to-heads, we'll just sort of spring, uh, several of these on you, or actually six of these on you. We'll put them up all on the screen. A.J.
11:01
Brown a slight favorite over DeVonta Smith. A.J. Brown obviously former Eagle, now with the Patriots. Mm-hmm. DeVonta is sticking, or, uh, sticking around there in Philly now as, uh, wide receiver one. A.J.
11:11
Brown a slight favorite. Let, let's start with that one. What are your thoughts? I, I would go with A.J. Brown if you're saying just who ha- who finishes with more yards this year.
11:20
And I could tell you in the fantasy world we're seeing A.J. Brown being drafted ahead of DeVonta Smith in, in high stakes leagues right now, which is the ADP I like to pull from. A.J.
11:29
Brown is going about pick 16 overall, so just into the second round, whereas DeVonta Smith going in the early third round. Now, I, I do think we could see a huge leap from DeVonta Smith.
11:39
You know, you, you wonder a little bit about the physical limitations for him at the NFL level, but I mean, you could make the argument that there, [laughs] there's not been a more productive receiver at the college level in the last 10 or 20 years than DeVonta Smith.
11:51
But I do think the, the upside with A.J. Brown in New England is higher than, like, the best case scenario for DeVonta Smith in Philly.
11:58
Part of it, of course, is the offense and the quarterbacks that they're playing with. I think we still have questions about Jalen Hurts, who feels like, you know, you kind of see a different version of him week to week.
12:07
I, I think if this hits in New England with A.J. Brown, it could really hit. I mean, we could be talking 13, 1400 plus yards, whereas I don't think there's that, that same ceiling for DeVonta Smith in Philly.
12:18
You know, I, I think the The absence of A.J. Brown in that offense this year maybe means that Philly goes back to being able to do what they wanna do week to week, not feeling obligated to get A.J. Brown involved. Yeah.
12:28
And that means more running with Jalen Hurts, you know, pounding Saquon Barkley, mixing in some Tank Bigsby. Uh, so DeVonta Smith, to me, a very valuable wide receiver one in fantasy, but higher upside for A.J.
12:38
Brown in New England. Last year, DeVont- when they were together, when A.J. Brown wasn't whining- [laughs]... uh, DeVonta, 1,008 yards receiving, A.J. Brown 1,003 last year. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I'm j- I'm interested to see.
12:51
I think Nick broke it down well. Yeah. I think A.J. Brown c- his ceiling, very high this year potentially in New England. I don't know where DeVonta Smith's floor is with Philly. You, you like the A.J. Brown side of it?
13:01
I li- I, I would bet this one. That's the first one you bet. If this was the most available to me- Yeah... I would bet it. Is there another one on that list? We'll just throw up the list- Yeah...
13:06
so Kelly and I will go over it later. Was there, is there another one on this list that, that, uh, piques your curiosity or that you might be a play on here? Uh, well, let me see. I think, uh- Wait... St.
13:17
Brown versus CeeDee Lamb is interesting. I [laughs] I, I'm certainly not touching the Concepcion versus Denzel Boston. I, I know, right? I, I- I was jo- I want-... joking with Danny before the show...
13:25
I just want nothing to do... Yeah, I want, I want nothing to do with the Browns offense, although I, I do think there's maybe a case for Concepcion just being a, being the short pass guy, you know?
13:34
I, I, I think i- i- when you look at some of these bad offenses and you're just trying to kinda manage it down to down, game to game, I, I do trust the guys who work more in the short area, and I think that would be Concepcion, but not a strong enough lean for me to bet it.
13:46
I mean, I, I will say Stefon Diggs, I, I know you're paying minus 130 here, but Diggs versus Deebo Samuel- Yeah... I think that's a pretty obvious one for me.
13:53
You know, both of these guys are, are kinda in the twilight of their career, but Stefon Diggs was still a thousand-plus yard receiver last year, obviously in a good situation with the Patriots, but Washington needs him really, really badly to, to be a high-level number two next to Terry McLaurin, whereas, I mean, with Deebo, I, I think I said it on this show or another show a couple weeks ago, I mean, he's- He's a running back...
14:12
it, it feels like he's kinda in, like, the Wes- Russell Westbrook phase of his career- Yeah... where he's like, he's bouncing around between teams.
14:17
You still see the flashes every now and then, but it's just not really the same guy that he was in the past.
14:22
And I mean, with the way DeSean Stribling is coming on, they have Mike Evans, they have Christian Kirk, I, I'm not really sure where Deebo Samuel even fits in the hierarchy in San Francisco. Yeah.
14:31
Also, do you wanna live through a, a year-long Stefon Diggs versus Deebo bet? [laughs] Like, just- Yeah... of all the bets you can live through. Do you wanna have your money tied up in that? Yeah. I'm not sure you do.
14:39
I don't know. That one I'm more okay with. I would, Nick, b- b- I had immediate just, "What?" When it, Concepcion versus Boston.
14:46
I'm like, "Who's going to the window and betting about, on the Browns rookie wide receivers to outperform one another?" [laughs] That's right. All right, fantasy questions. Let's go speed round.
14:54
Danny Higgins submitting several questions. Where do you have Christian McCaffrey ranked, and is he consensus RB3 behind Bijan or Jahmyr Gibbs, whichever order you have those two guys in?
15:05
[laughs] So Mc- McCaffrey is tough. I am not drafting Christian McCaffrey this year. With that said, you can't rank him, like, 35th overall, you know?
15:13
There's still an obligation to, to place him, like, somewhere late in the first round. But I would take Jonathan Taylor over him.
15:18
JT is actually going over Christian McCaffrey on average in these expert leagues, so I would say McCaffrey is closer to consensus RB, like, three and a half at this point. The ADP is really close.
15:28
I would take James Cook over him. I would take receivers, certainly, like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, JSN, Puka Nacua, all those guys over him in the first round.
15:37
It's just not a health bet that I wanna make two years in a row. It, it's a little bit like Kawhi Leonard, uh, last year with the Clippers, kind of a best case health scenario.
15:44
Like, are you really betting on Christian McCaffrey after that kind of workload, playing 17 games two years in a row? I am not. Uh, how high should, uh, Jeremiah Love go for the Cardinals?
15:54
[sighs] Well, I, I think Jeremiah Love passed the eye test for me before the injury in, in the first preseason game. Like, he was, he was alarmingly good.
16:02
You know, I, I threw out the Adrian Peterson comp on our show, and I'm not saying he's gonna be that kind of player, but just the running style, you know, kinda reminded me of that.
16:09
I, I do think we're a little bit low, uh, as a fantasy community maybe on the Cardinals offense. Like, they're, they're not gonna be a good team. They're not gonna win a lot of games.
16:16
But this was a team that was piling up points last year. They were playing in shootouts every week. I, I think that could be the case again. So right now, you could get Jeremiah Love into the fourth round.
16:25
You know, if you're looking at him versus someone like Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, Josh Jacobs, I, I'm comfortable taking Jeremiah Love in that range, but I'm not taking him over the Derrick Henry, Javonte Williams tier just above him.
16:35
Who is your overall number one rookie player in fantasy this year? Is it Love, or is it somebody else?
16:42
[sighs] It, I think it has to be Jeremiah Love by default, but it, it's a, it's a really interesting class because so many of these, these high, highly drafted wide receivers in particular- Sure...
16:51
and even Jeremiah Love as a running back- Yeah... ended up in what I would say are bad situations, you know, bad quarterbacks, bad offenses, new head coaches that we don't trust.
16:59
So Jeremiah Love is going to be the first rookie off the board in just about any draft, but I'm equally comfortable waiting a few rounds and taking Jahdarian Price, who, by the way, is down to six to one now for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
17:10
Brock Bowers, worth an early round pick? I think so. I think so. We, we have a couple guys on, on staff who are really sharp, who are just all over Brock Bowers.
17:19
You know, I think there's the idea that, you know, kinda like we talked about with A.J. Brown, where if this hits, I mean, we could be talking about an all-time tight end season.
17:27
You know, he missed a bunch of time last year, was still putting up numbers in a terrible Raiders offense.
17:31
I think there's some belief that this will be a much more competent offense this year, and there's just no competition whatsoever at wide receiver.
17:38
I mean, it's what, Trey Tucker and Jalen Nailor, I think, are your wide receivers one and two right now? And then Browns, Falcons quarterback situations, how are those affecting fantasy as you see it?
17:47
I- they're not impacting Bijan Robinson. They're not really impacting where Drake London is going either. You know, you're starting to see Kyle Pitts slide a little bit with those concerns in Atlanta.
17:58
In Cleveland, though, i- it's really tough. It's really, really tough to, to jump ADP for even someone like Quinshon Judkins, where you just wonder, like, "How many red zone possessions is this team going to have?"
18:06
Harold Bannon is somebody people are interested in, but we're seeing Concepcion, Boston still widely available late in drafts, which is not usually the case for first and early second round receivers. Nick, thank you.
18:17
We'll, we'll, uh, see you top of, uh, next hour, 10:00 AM Pacific, 1:00 PM Eastern. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Nick Whelan, co-host of Prop Points with Jeff Erickson.
18:26
Ladies and gentlemen, he is the star of the Megapod, the Beating the Book Megapod, which premieres, what is it? Uh, next, no, not next Thursday, the Thursday after that, or, or earlier in the week hopefully for week one.
18:38
He's also the star of the Showtime docuseries Action, and of course the main star of Wishnev Wednesdays. It's Toddy Wishnev, courtesy of the Progressive guest line from Pittsburgh, PA. What's happening?
18:49
You forgot, "And that guy is too fat to win. It's impossible. Did you see him on the show?" [laughs] Yeah, that too. That too. That was another thing. Okay, we have a lot of topics to get to.
19:01
Um, let's start with, in no particular order, let us start with, uh, the notion of, and you came up with this term, which I thought was brilliant, premature physiculation.
19:11
What do you mean by that, and why should people be aware of this?
19:15
Well, I coined the phrase premature physiculation because we have a very intelligent friend, I will say he's a very intelligent fella, at least about certain topics, and sometimes- Steve Fezzik, yeah...
19:26
when watching a game, in-gaming, he gets overly excited and wants to do something maybe before it is really warranted. For an example, maybe, you know, a team scores seven-nothing.
19:41
Immediately he wants to jump on in-game that team, uh, you know, and you haven't even seen the other team, you know, with the ball yet.
19:50
You know, and I understand why he does it, because it's always a fine line between having, trying to get the in-game bet prior to the algorithm adjusting up, and the other side of it is being, you know, too late, and when they've already figured it out.
20:07
And especially in like college football, you see this early in the season a lot. They don't know anything about these teams, folks. They, these teams are [laughs] completely different.
20:16
Ask Chris Felica how many different transfers are on these teams. They have no idea.
20:20
So, you know, Brad Powers knows his stuff, but m- most other people don't, and they probably don't know how these teams are gonna gel together.
20:28
And so you're gonna see some lines that are gonna be way off, and they will adjust in the algorithm when everybody goes, "Ooh, wait a second, UCLA's not that bad?"
20:39
You know, like for instance, I remember, you know, some games where UCLA was like a gigantic underdog to Penn State. Mm-hmm.
20:44
You know, midway through the second quarter, you're like, "Wait a second, UCLA's better," you know? [laughs] And they were like, and then the algorithm was already onto it.
20:51
But, so I understand why he wants to jump out early, but sometimes a little patience is warranted.
20:56
I find my best in-game bets typically, not counting like quarter bets and stuff like that, but, but for full game bets, happen maybe five to six minutes into the second quarter.
21:06
I've seen enough of the game, I've seen enough drives, I've seen, you know, defensively, offensively, both teams, and now I can make a, a, a pretty good, uh, calculation.
21:14
So be careful jumping to conclusions too quickly, which I call a premature physiculation. Well said. And by the way, the man knows of what he speaks with in-game betting.
21:23
He had a 187 unit to the positive college basketball season, all one unit bets. Is that good? It happened. No, some were less- It happened... than one unit, actually. Oh, there you go.
21:33
That's right, some were less than one unit, but certainly not doing the two unit, three unit thing. That's how he got there. Not doing the shtick- That's right...lach that many in the tout game do.
21:43
[laughs] The shticklach. Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa. What are you talking about? Do you mean the, I know I'm down the last two weeks, but I've got my 10 star whale lock of the year.
21:51
Shticklach, not related to kreplach, which is very tasty, I think. Uh, Felica, speaking of our friends, he, uh, he called, uh, what'd he say, Seattle AL West with the easy schedule you like or don't like?
22:05
I, I think they're, I, I don't know if you're getting enough 'cause I haven't looked at the schedule of the other teams, but I, I like the idea- Easiest remaining schedule in baseball.
22:11
Easiest remaining schedule in baseball... I, 19 out of 22 against the Angels and the Athletics. That's like if I played tennis and scheduled- There we go... Gilly Alexander- There we go... then Stevie Fezzik- [laughs]...
22:22
then Gilly Alexander, then Stevie Fezzik- Yes... then Gilly Alexander- Yes... on the road, then at home Gilly Alexander, then Stevie Fezzik at home.
22:28
[laughs] It would be just endless W's over and over, and that seems to be what, what we're looking at here possibly. Uh, mean-spirited and uncalled for is how I would characterize that last response. Uh, okay.
22:39
By the way, folks, Gilly Alexander was arguing with me the other day that he's- Oh... super competitive with me, when in the last six sets we've played- No one cares... he won a total of eight games.
22:50
6-1, 6-1, 6-4, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0. And we've now installed for the match in September when I get over there in a couple weeks, we've installed me over one and a half Gilly games in a best two out of three match.
23:05
So if I beat him 6-0, 6-1, I win the bet. If I don't, I lose the bet. Stevie Fezzik already betted at Novig at -118. Are you done? Over. Well, let me know when we continue. And Chris Felica and me are on the under. Yeah.
23:17
But- I, I wanna know what happened in that oth- That one set... 6-4... because all these games get to deuce, and then I mentally crumble. That was the one time I didn't mentally crumble.
23:26
Kelly, do you really believe every game gets to deuce? Not every, but they mostly do. Do you really believe that? [laughs] They mostly get to deuce. He, he can laugh- Well, they-... but he knows it's true...
23:34
Todd's the most incredible clutch player ever. Yeah. Okay. Um, you, now I'm not so sad about bringing this up, you took it in the keister in a WNBA thing, as you would say.
23:43
Wings over 56 and a half team total the other day. Oh, God. Um, let's discuss those, seriously the money management, the, the psychological aspect of this, 'cause you, you handle it well. I, I think that w- something
23:55
we don't talk about enough in gambling is you have periods where you're making good bets, and you're just taking keister shot after keister shot, and you can't win. It's like I was on fire in WNBA.
24:06
I was up about 22 units. I could do no wrong. Now I'm only up like six units 'cause I just keep taking, I've probably made a bunch of bad bets too, but I've also taken some hellacious beats.
24:18
The Dallas Wings had 56 points in the first quarter and the first six minutes of the second quarter. 56. Guys, if you watch WNBA, 56 and a half is absurd.
24:30
56 in the first 16 minutes is beyond absurd, and I needed a half a point in the last four minutes- And they didn't get there.
24:38
They scored zero in the la- including a girl on the last possession, one foot away from, [laughs] from a bunny, and she missed it.
24:46
So I guess the point that I, I wou- I would make, and I'm, I'm not always great at this, but sometimes there's always this thing to like, "Oh, well maybe I should up my bets now, because sooner or later I'm gonna stop getting these terrible beats."
24:59
You know, and doing something out of the ordinary when you're in one of these bad runs to try to make back all at once your, your bad beats or your bad bets. And I feel like it's not the way to go.
25:11
And, you know, I've, I've made the mistake many, many times in the past and I- it's not like I never make the mistake even now. But it's just something to remember.
25:19
The, the beats will stop, but if you force it, it can, it sometimes it can just really snowball. So don't up your bets to two unit.
25:27
If you're like a $100 bettor, you know, don't start betting two and 300 because you went on a losing streak, you wanna get it back. Just take your time, make good bets, keep betting your $100 a game. It will come back.
25:39
But you have to stay calm, because a lot of times also if you jump it up, you're not thinking straight, because now you're, you're trying to be too fine and too careful and stuff like that as well.
25:50
So I think it's something we don't talk about too much.
25:53
I don't know if you talk about it that much, Gilly, but i- I think it's something we don't talk about enough in the world of gambling, is to keep cool and remain calm. I'd agr- I would agree with that.
26:03
We would get to multiple more topics here, but since Todd needed to spend a minute acting like he was Vitas Gerulaitis or regular Ilie Nastase, we can only get to one more topic. Let's talk about the, uh- [laughs]...
26:13
the individual, uh, K at bats. I was watching Ilie Nastase-Connors on YouTube, 1972 at Wimbledon the other day. It was fantastic. Uh, what is this you wanna talk about with, uh, individual batters and Ks?
26:25
Luzardo versus Ward, and, uh, you said the wisdom if they're in the lineup. What do you, what do you mean? Patrick Wisdom. Patrick Wisdom. Oh, Patrick Wisdom. Um, so, s- so, so some of the...
26:35
I've been doing decently on these individual at bats to K, to strike out guys.
26:41
And, uh, you know, you're, i- it's usually like there's six different offers, and usually that means that the vig on those is a terrible bet, right?
26:49
Usually when you have s- that many offers in a particular, you know, sportsbook, it's usually bad.
26:53
But I think sometimes if you can target in on certain guys who have horrendous, uh, strikeout numbers against a particular pitcher. For example, today Ward has faced him 10 times, has faced Luzardo 10 times.
27:07
He's struck out seven times. Patrick Wisdom has faced him 14 times. He's struck out nine times. There's, they're not gonna make these guys minus 160 to strike out. The worst you're gonna see is like minus 110.
27:18
'Cause most, most of the time it's plus money, right? So you're not gonna see like minus 110. And sometimes they just can't adjust enough.
27:24
It's almost like an algorithm in an in-game scenario where they just can't adjust enough. So it's something to keep an eye on, especially if Luzardo looks like he has good stuff today. Thank you, Toddy. Appreciate it.
27:40
Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he is making the, uh... I don't know if this is his first appearance on this show. Certainly the first since, uh, when I've been here. I think so, yeah.
27:45
I think it's his first ever appearance on this show. Uh, he is the content manager over at fourforfour.com, BetBurts Golf. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at Ry Noonan. That's R-Y Noonan.
27:56
The, uh, the famous shout-out on, from Caddyshack is actually his last name. It's Ryan Noonan joining the show, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Ryan? Nice to be here, guys.
28:07
Uh, pleasure to meet you. Yeah, I've been on other, uh, VSiN shows, uh, over the years, but never, never here with you fellas, so I appreciate it.
28:13
I, and funny, Gil, I have a Uncle Danny who was, uh, a amateur golf champion back in '79 and '80- Oh, wow... uh, back in New Hampshire. So he was, he was peak, uh- [laughs]...
28:25
Danny Noonan during the, uh, Danny Noonan release of, uh, Caddyshack. So, uh, he's a stick, lots of stories, but, uh, yeah, it's, it's a dated reference that, uh, fewer and fewer understand these days.
28:35
But I appreciate you- I-... uh- Yeah... understanding it. I'm sure his friends didn't kill him- Yeah. [laughs]... with that back then. Oh my God.
28:41
All right, Ryan, well, since you bring up golf first, let's actually start with golf, 'cause you do a lot of golf, you do a lot of NFL. Um, you do like a couple golfers this week, um, and you also like a top 10 bet.
28:53
What do you got? Yeah, Tour Championship, kind of a weird end of the season. I'm excited that the tour has, uh, been pretty active of making sure that they change the process as we move forward.
29:04
Uh, this is East Lake Country Club in Atlanta, which we go to often for this, but it got a complete facelift.
29:11
We see a lot of, like, renovations that come up over the years, and they, like, do a little here and there to the course. This place got tip to tails peeled back, back in 2024.
29:19
So I wouldn't lean on a lot of course history. I think playing from the fairway is gonna matter a lot, Gil. This got pretty unpredictable, thick Bermuda rough.
29:27
Uh, this is a long par 70 course, so I'm looking for guys that really control the golf ball off the tee this week.
29:32
So that starts for me with Collin Morikawa, uh, actually led the field last week in distance from the edge of the fairway, which is a, a significantly better accuracy stat than, like, binary greens or fairways hit.
29:46
Like, fairway hit is, like, yes or no, right? Where distance from the edge of the fairway tells us a little bit more of, like, keeping your ball in play, controlling the golf ball. Love this from Morikawa.
29:54
He's absolutely dialed on approach still. Uh, you know, putting is hit or miss. He's not a great Bermuda putter per se, but he's gonna keep himself in play, uh, which we really want this week, too.
30:03
The other is Tom Kim, a little bit further down the board. Very similar stylistic, uh, playing style from Collin Morikawa. He's gonna keep the ball in play off the tee. Great long irons player.
30:14
He's actually a tremendous Bermuda grass putter. So I like Tom Kim.
30:18
You could probably get a, you know, pretty solid Tom Kim finishing position bet, too, if you wanted to, you know, kind of avoid the top of the board and you're worried about Scottie or Rory, for instance.
30:27
But Tom Kim, 48s, 50s are out there.
30:29
Uh, it's a good week for each ways, too, if you happen to have access to each way betting, uh, where you can kind of cover some more positions this week since we're dealing with a truncated 30-man field I like those guys in the outright market.
30:39
Yeah. All right. Oh, you li- Yeah... and you like the Collin Ko- you're on Morikawa as well. I'm on Morikawa. Yeah. I think Tom Kim's a great long shot option. I'm with you, I'm with you on both those, Ryan.
30:47
I, I'll ask you, so obviously I'm on, I'm on Morikawa, too, so those guys aren't winning. So who's gonna win this week? This is the last golf tournament of the season we can bet.
30:55
Who's gonna win this week that you're gonna regret the most? Oh, man, I, [laughs] you know, my data and the modeling I did this week loves Patrick Cantlay. Yeah. Um, I'm never making that click, Kelly.
31:07
I'm never making that click when he's, you know, i- in the 30s and 40s, where he spent most of the summer.
31:12
He is admittedly playing tremendous golf, which is why, uh, you know, the recency of the modeling likes him quite a bit.
31:18
He has a fairly nice history here, but again, as I kinda touched on at the top, I'm just really not leaning on course history here because this is a, a really different venue.
31:25
In, uh, in terms of where they are, where they're at, uh, it's the same place, but in terms of how it plays, I do think it differs a little bit from some of the historic East Lake stuff.
31:33
So Cantlay would be a guy that I would be frustrated that I didn't trust my numbers, and I, you know, made a personal subjective play to a- avoid and then, uh, ignore him, but, uh, that would be annoying.
31:44
Copyright violation on the question, five cents in the till, please. Mm-hmm. Uh, top 10, Viktor Hovland, you say you like? Yeah, I like Hovland, Gil.
31:53
He, you know, another guy that really good ball striker, keeps the ball in play off the tee. Uh, he has the distance to get it done here. This is a place that's really mitigated around the green play.
32:01
If you look at the leaderboard last year, the, the guys that were towards the top, you know, they were towards the bottom of the week in strokes gained around the green.
32:08
When Hovland's off, uh, it's when he has to rely on scrambling and chipping, I really don't like him in those weeks.
32:14
Actually, and also, he's better when we have shorter shaved runoffs around the greens instead of, like, the thick aprons, and that's what we have here with the remodel.
32:20
So it's a good spot for Hovland, another great Bermuda putter, too. So, uh, don't like the outright price per se. I think it's a little too short, but I would imagine he's in the mix.
32:29
So top five with ties, top 10 with ties, I think he mixes this weekend. All right, let's get to as many season-long NFLs as we can.
32:35
Let's start with the hotly contested NFC North, where the Lions are favored to win the division. And then, you know, pick your... Obviously, the market has it one way, but a lot of people have a lot of opinions.
32:45
What is the team you landed on as a bet to win that division? I like the five-to-one, uh, Vikings number. Uh, I, I think this team is... I mean, look, coaching is tremendous.
32:58
I do think that we have a pretty decent historical outlier of Kevin O'Connell, kind of been, I'd say, a kingmaker, but, like, you know, we've resurrected some pretty solid careers here.
33:07
Really, JJ, unfortunately, seems to be kind of the only outlier that hasn't really been able to figure it out over, under O'Connell's, uh, coaching there.
33:15
Uh, nine and eight with all the mess that they had last year, really opportunistic defense, which I love. I think Flores...
33:21
I think having a game plan for a Flores defense, especially outside the division, where you don't see it all the time, I think gives them a little bit of an advantage week in and week out.
33:30
Uh, Kyler obviously has some questions, but I just have some concerns a little bit with Green Bay, uh, their defensive depth, their offensive line issues, that there's so much natural regression I think we're expecting on the Chicago side.
33:43
They can kind of plow through that, and again, if they're gonna want to score 42 points a game, they might need to.
33:49
Uh, but I think that there's some regression there, and I have concerns about the, the secondary for Detroit, too. I think they're gonna have to beat people, uh, you know, by running up the score.
33:59
I think that gets a little less, uh, a little harder to do when we get to the playoff time.
34:02
So yeah, I think it's a tough, interesting early slate for Minnesota, but I think if they can get off to a good start, they do have Green Bay and Chicago to start. I think it'll have to be a really nice start.
34:10
I think I like over eight and a half wins, and I think five to one to win this division is a pretty good price. Okay, this has gone well so far, but now we're treading into, uh, murky waters here.
34:18
NFC East, who you got to win the division there? I kind of like the vibes of what's going on in Dallas. Ah.
34:24
The problem with Dallas that I think we all, all agree is that we naturally pay a little bit of a Dallas tax, uh, just because they are such a public team, and typically we'll find that I like them, but my numbers don't necessarily line up with where I think their prices are.
34:39
But two to one to win this division, like I, I, again, the vibes are, are a tough way to handicap something. There just always seems to be something off with this Sirianni-Hurts situation going on.
34:51
I'm worried about the ceiling of their offense. Defense is gonna be solid without a doubt. But I'm, I'm interested in, like, the Christian Parker thing that they have going on there, bringing him over from Philly.
35:00
It's not widely available, but some books will offer, like, assisting coach of the year. I think Christian Parker, like, 18 to one is a pretty good stab.
35:09
Maybe if you're interested in, you know, again, not a, a clean derivative of a good Dallas season, but I think another way to say, "Hey, uh, maybe there's a chance they win this division, or they're gonna be in the mix," I think Christian Parker is a good kind of, uh, caveat there.
35:23
Again, the ceiling on the offense, if they stay healthy, they're gonna be able to run the football, uh, you know, with the dynamic receivers that they have here. I think there's just a lot to like here, just a, a ton.
35:31
They don't, they haven't replaced, like, a single edge rusher that's dominant to bring in anything on, like, the Mar- Michael Parsons side, but they have depth along the defensive line.
35:41
Uh, and I think you really need that to be competitive, and I think they have four or five guys that can contribute. So I'm in on Dallas this year.
35:46
Uh, the Christian Parker call, uh, sort of reflects that you, you do a lot of stuff with defensive stats. You focus a great deal on defense.
35:54
Just curious, on your way out here, Defensive Rookie of the Year where you don't have stats for these guys on the pro level, do you have a thought in this market? Yeah, I think it obviously ends up being a little bit...
36:06
Typically, it's been top of the board's done very well. Last year was an outlier where we hit a 60 to one, 66 to one Carson Schwesinger.
36:14
Uh, again, 'cause I think we wanna look at, like, high-end edge rushers, and we have some this year, I think some more that were, that are better and more likely to have good seasons.
36:22
But deep down the board, there's a couple of names, uh, kind of a similar model to the, uh, Schwesinger play last year. Jaylon Barham in Dallas, uh, you could find 150 to ones on this guy, uh- Ooh...
36:34
to be Defensive Rookie of the Year. Also, Caleb Ellerby's ore probably gonna win the linebacker two job in Buffalo. These guys are gonna play island games. They're gonna contribute. They're gonna compile some stats.
36:45
Those are triple digits in that market. I think there's, uh, those guys should be probably closer to, like, 50 to one. Can't thank you enough, Ryan. Appreciate it. Great stuff. Appreciate it, guys.
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