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Aug 27, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 27, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 27, 2024
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45:31
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's my man, Kelly Bidlin. What's up, bro?
0:21
What's happening? Not much, just chilling. Yeah? Yeah. Drew Dinsick about to join us. Yeah. Talk, uh, US Open and National Football League with us.
0:30
Michael Montesano, Circa Booby Prize winner back in 2020, uh, to give, uh, three college football plays and a couple NFL thoughts as well, and bets. And then Paul Spohor a little later on will talk Major League Baseball.
0:42
The White Sox did it again, by the way. Led after five, lost the game. I gotta get, I gotta get an updated tally from Borchard as to how many double results the White Sox have had.
0:54
We're gonna show a tweet that is just amazing about the White Sox a little later on. Wh- what's it, what's it at least? Like, do you, do you know a number of what we're up to at least with the double results?
1:03
It is around tw- It, it is approaching 20, I want to say. That's insane. That is insane. Don't hold me to that. We'll find out later. Okay. Yeah. We'll find out later, but it's- I put you on the spot, sorry...
1:13
but the point being that the, the average price of those throughout the year has been close to seven to one. So if you just pl- if you just played that double result, by the way, they lead after five, they lose the game.
1:27
If you played it blindly every single game of the season, that alone, forget your losses on all the other, the one unit you'd lose on all the others, but you would've gotten like seven units on all this.
1:39
So you'd be up, way up on the season, even if you factored in all the losses at this point. Which is crazy. So this is from James Fagan. This is... Okay, White Sox lost to the Tigers last night six to three.
1:49
Tigers rookie Ty Madden made his debut despite a 7.97 ERA, triple A. How does that happen? So they're like, "Yeah, you're g- just gonna play the White Sox, so we'll just throw you in here anyway."
1:58
He allowed one earned run over five innings. Then the bullpen, it should be noted last night, they blow their 31st save of the year. The White Sox pen blows their 31st... Think about that.
2:09
The White Sox bullpen has blown 31 saves. Um, they are now 31, full record, 31 and 101, 70 games under. 70.
2:23
31 and 101, and they're three and 33 versus- Oh my gosh... division opponents Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota. How is that? I, I actually think that last line is the most mind-blowing.
2:36
How are you that bad against your division? Someone responded, "Every single one of those lines is more mind-blowing than the previous." Right. It really is. I mean, what, so they could- It's just incredible...
2:46
they could really have double their amount of wins than what they have, or almost. They, they're on pace to, to set the record here for the worst...
2:54
There's, again, there's the worst winning percentage record of all time, which is like the Philadelphia Athletics, uh, back in the early part of the 20th century, and then there's the worst 162 game schedule,
3:06
uh, record, which is 40 and 102 by the early s- by an early '60s version of the Mets. So they're, they're going for it, baby. Three and 33, wow. [laughs] Three and 33 versus Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota. Yeah.
3:20
So what does that mean? The thing, you know what the thing is? You know why Cleveland is left out of that? 'Cause they actually beat Cleveland several times. Oh, that's g- Yeah, that's right. That's right. Yeah.
3:28
I'm sure we talked about that before. Don't I know it, 'cause what was that? Not March, April, but May.
3:32
That's what, that's what torpedoed the Cleveland bet in the month of May, 'cause they lost to the White Sox twice or something like that.
3:38
I just, I, y- even when we first brought up that, like, that bet, the double result kind of bet- Yeah... like,
3:45
you, you, w- I would have never thought we would've been sitting here at this point on August 27th still talking about it being a thing. You know what I mean? You just take, it- People-...
3:54
something like that usually doesn't play out the entirety of the season.
3:57
Sports futility's amazing, but particularly over a 162 game schedule, and there's no reason to believe anything will change here from now to the end. Um, tennis plays. Can I do that before we- Yep...
4:07
we talk about the guide here? Uh, tennis plays. This has been the, again, the strangest 20 t- 2024 has been the strangest tennis season.
4:15
It has been complete streaks of awesomeness followed by complete streaks of futility. Uh, my own personal futility in these. Um, massive hard court season early, then, uh, clay was unlucky. Grass was terrible.
4:30
Then the Olympics clay and the begi- re- restart of hard court was fantastic, and then I just had the worst streak ever last week. Um, and then yesterday we have the, the, uh, walkover.
4:44
We were on our way to perhaps, perhaps hitting a $3 dog on, uh, uh, against Saccheri yesterday on Yifan Wang, and so Saccheri then quits and so we don't get that up.
4:55
Now, if you did have a, if it was graded at shops where you only needed one set to complete, you were a winner there, and yesterday was actually just a tick of a loss, just barely.
5:04
Uh, but if you didn't have that and you had it for a full grade, uh, it was just sort of an awful day after that, and that's usually how it goes.
5:10
Like, "Oh, we're about to win this big thing," and it didn't work out through no fault of our own. Oh, watch this. We lost a five setter and a tiebreaker and that kind of thing as well.
5:18
Today, uh, this is a weird day in terms of betting lines. I ended up with five, three on the men's side, two on the ladies' side, and they're all dogs. They're all dogs. Um, on the men's side,
5:31
should I give you a shot at these? [laughs] Yeah, yes, please. All right. Please, yes, please. Men's side. Go. Tristan Schoolkate- That's correct... o- over Taro Daniel. That's right.
5:39
Where, where's Tristan from, Great Britain or Australia? Australia. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that's really a fade of Taro Daniel, who's been terrible. Okay. Okay?
5:46
All right, and then we got Jakub Menšík over Felix Auger-Aliassime, or Jacob. Um, Menšík, Auger-Aliassime, sure. Jakub or Jacob? Jakub. Okay, hey, I got that part right. Plus 263.
5:57
Jakub Mensik, Mensik was a guy we s- we hit a lot in the early hard court season early this year. Um, plus 263, so we're counting on the magic to come back today on him. And then boom Faleka. Yeah, I can spell it.
6:08
I did it again in the graphic. [laughs] That's right. Lerner Tien plus 240 over A- Arthur Fils. Lerner Tien, who's a young American who was great at Winston-Salem last week, plus 240 over the, uh, Frenchman Arthur Fille.
6:22
Yeah. Eva Lys, plus 195 over Maria Bouzková. I'm gonna go Eva Lys there. Okay. Plus 195, sure. Bouzková I know. Uh-huh. Okay, this one. Uh, Varvara Lepchenko, plus 132 over Brenda, oh my gosh, F- Fruhvirtova. Nailed it.
6:38
Really? Uh, you sure. I just mumbled words. Plus [laughs] I just mumbled letters. Yeah. Just s- sounds came out of your mouth. Fruhvirtova. [laughs] Uh, that's Linda Fruhvir- uh, Fruhvirtova's, uh, sister, by the way.
6:48
Sure. Lepchenko's numbers on, on hard courts are great. Plus 132 on Lepchenko. So it's Skoolkate, Menchik, and Tien on the men's side, all big dogs. Uh, Lys and Lepchenko on the ladies' side. So we'll see what happens.
7:02
By the way, uh, you just watch that US Open, dude. I want to be no place on earth rather than there. Yeah. It's really cool. The energy is unbelievable. I just wanna fly there and hang out in the stadium for two weeks.
7:15
Yeah. Y- you're right, it's a... The problem is I don't know. I feel like all the tennis tournaments are bu- or all the Grand Slams are bucket list, uh, ones for me. Yes. But, like- This one, though...
7:24
like, you always bring that up. Oh. Australian Open's probably the most unlikely for me to ever go to, so I'll be okay. That's right. But I still think I'd have Wimbledon and French Open above- Me too... the US Open.
7:33
Me too. But that's part of, like, you know, international travel. Yeah, just awesome to watch. S- Sabalenka against Priscilla Han last night was unbelievable late tonight.
7:41
Sabalenka just pulverizing the tennis ball, and Han did nothing wrong. She was actually great, but she still got beat 6-3, 6-3. Uh, the other thing, the, uh, new NFL betting guide.
7:50
Our, our NFL betting guide addendum, part deux, is out now. This is a good idea. Whole bunch of new props are out from everybody here at the network at VSiN. Uh, it's available for download now. Check it out.
8:02
Quickest way is to go to the website, vsin.com. Um, but I thought it'd be... By the way, it's the pro edition update we're calling it, the NFL betting guide pro edition update.
8:11
Um, week one betting systems, best bets, a lot of props from everybody with all explanations. Everybody does write-ups. Subscribe now at vsin.com/betting-guides. How about that? I, I was the first one to get my picks in.
8:23
That's all I'm gonna say. First one at the network. I might have been the last. It's not a race. I might have been the last. [laughs] Sorry, Adam Burke. It was probably the last.
8:29
[laughs] I'm always, I'm always apologizing to Adam. Sorry about the Guardians thing in March, April, and May, too. Hope they, hope they make it okay. Uh, so I, you know, we thought it'd be... Well, not we.
8:38
I, I thought it'd be cool this morning, go back to the original one, which we did in June, and we have a grid where every VSiN, I don't know, uh, it's like 20 deep of VSiN hosts. Yeah.
8:49
Uh, AFC, uh, every division winner, we had a pick. Every wild card, three per conference, obviously. Then of course NFC, AFC champion, and Super Bowl champion.
8:58
And I wanna say, so I looked up ours, Kelly, and I wanna say, I don't wanna say it, I think this is true. You came out looking way cleaner than I did.
9:08
'Cause I have a couple in there where I'm like, "What was I thinking?" This was a, this was a- Did you drug me? This was a great idea by you, because there is absolutely...
9:16
So, so the whole idea, we're gonna go over what we, what we put in there. Yes. And what would we change now? What would we change? And I definitely have some changes as well. [laughs] I absolutely have one.
9:24
So, okay, let's do the NFC real quick. We both have Philly, uh, to win the division. I'm even down on Philly, and I still like that I have Philly. Yeah, no change there for me. I like the Eagles.
9:32
I have Green Bay, you have Detroit in the North. I don't love it, but I'm not changing that. Uh, we both have the Falcons in the South, and we both have the Niners in the West.
9:41
Uh, now when it comes to the wild card, uh, you went Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle, which is a great pick. I went Detroit, Dallas, and, you ready?
9:50
The Washington Commanders, 'cause I thought the NFC's gonna be, you know, it's not as good as the AFC. I gotta pick one outlier. I'll take Washington. But you know what? I'd rather have your Seattle at this point.
9:59
So I regret that one. That's more you coming around on Seattle, though. Correct. Right, yeah. Correct. Than, than you being completely down on Washington. That's, that's talking myself into a Mike McDonald bet.
10:09
You know, as coach of the year, that's just the thinking that their defense is gonna get better as the season goes on as he implements his system. So I have a regret on the wild card. Shall we go to the AFC real quick?
10:20
Mine's really chalky. Like, I just [laughs] Yeah. There's nothing wrong here. Yeah, yeah. Okay, AFC, [laughs] I think we're both nuts. I'd like to make a change. I think, are we both switching to the Jets? Yes.
10:29
We're both switching to the Jets. I have the Dolphins, you have the Bills. Both switching to the Jets. Yours is worse than mine, I think. Painted green. Uh, both have the Bengals in the North. Okay.
10:39
I have Jacksonville in the South, you have Houston. I, I'm okay with that, 'cause again, these things don't, aren't a perfect graph to, uh- I'll stand by that one... perfect graph upwards.
10:46
I'll, I'll stick with Jacksonville. Cincinnati, I, I honest- I don't know about at this point. I don't know either, but I'm not changing it. Right. [laughs] Uh, like the AFC East, we gotta change.
10:53
Uh, and then the West, we both have the Chiefs. Wild cards, [laughs] oh, God. Kelly has Baltimore, Miami, and Indianapolis. Wait, can you go back to that, guys? Yeah. Uh, and I have, are you ready for this? Oh, boy.
11:04
I should've just put the Colts to win the division. I mean, like, they're e- they're either winning the division, or they're not making the playoffs. I have Baltimore, Houston, and are you ready for this?
11:12
My worst call in June. Oh, boy. The Chargers. Wow. What was I thinking? Yeah, you're right. I didn't notice that one before. That, that is the one I'm most surprised by.
11:20
This was my year where I was like, "Well, this'll be my year to, to take the Chargers." [laughs] Yeah, your year to be on the Chargers. So that's the one I regret the most.
11:27
And then, and then, uh, conference and, uh, Super Bowl, if you could flash it up real quick, guys. Even these I regret. I think I have the Bills.
11:33
I have the, uh, the, I have the Chiefs and the Niners in the, uh, as, as the conference champions. You have the Bills [laughs] and the Eagles. I have the Niners winning it all. You have the Eagles winning it all.
11:44
The Chargers is the one I regret the most, and Washington, of course. Uh, we'll come back. Drew Ditzik on the other side. Next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
You can watch episode three of Circus Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million tonight at 9:00 PM Eastern right here on VSiN. Five-part docuseries takes you inside the high-stakes world of the annual Circus Survivor contest.
12:12
Follow the contestants as they make all or nothing picks over the 2023 NFL season, and go behind the scenes of the world's largest legal betting contest. Episode two was nice last night as well.
12:22
Uh, again, Sharpan, breakout star. Let me just say that again. He is tonight again in episode three. Several VSiN hosts make appearances along the way to offer their advice as well. Stormy prominently featured.
12:32
You can watch the remaining episodes this week, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific on vsin.com and YouTube TV as, as well, YouTube TV that is, as well as a live broadcast on X where people are checking it out live.
12:44
Go to vsin.com/survivor for details or to watch episodes one and two.
12:49
Best, uh, tweet I got, Kelly, about, uh, Circus Survivor last night was from, uh, the numbers guys who said, "Hey, Gil, another great edition of the Circus Survivor doc."
12:58
He said, "How come they wouldn't let you use your voice modulator as heard on Numbers Game?" So he th- he believes that w- as we broadcast here from- Mm-hmm...
13:09
the food court, uh, here on the second floor of the D, that we are... that my voice is being modulated electronically. [laughs] So- I mean, hey, different microphones, different places, they do sound different.
13:22
Well, we were in a, we were in a casino screaming- Yeah, yeah... during the documentary. Yeah, yeah. I'm gonna go with, uh, Gil sounds more different in the documentary than- Yes...
13:29
he does every single day on air, but... Later on in the show, we will use T-Pain's voice box. [laughs] Ain't none of them hot. How quick- That's how I'm gonna do the rest of the show...
13:39
how quick would you drive away the entire audience if we were, if we just had that? Remember they had the app? Remember there was, like, that app that came out? Shawty, what is your name?
13:46
Everybody was addicted to it for, like, five days before you're like, "All right, this is really annoying." [laughs] If just to... We did the whole show in all kinds of different old-timey things or anything like that.
13:55
No, it's not modulated. Sorry, this is me. What's the- We're screaming at you... what's the oldest non-sports app on your phone that you still use constantly? Ooh. That I still use? Yeah. I don't use anything.
14:04
I only, I only bring this up because I, I just did it, like, yesterday here. Like, Shazam, I feel like was, like, one of the first apps available, like, on Apple, on iPhones. Oh, Sha- Shazam was the first... was...
14:15
When you used Shazam for the first time, you're like, "Oh, my God, we're in the future." Right. Exactly. We're in the- I still use it to this day... we have arrived in the fu- oh, I still use Shazam all the time. Yeah.
14:22
Um, I'm going to say for sports- And outside of, like, outside of, like, the basics. Oh, I was just gonna say, basics is- Like, not, like, Google Maps. Don't give me that answer...
14:30
yeah, I was gonna say Yahoo Sp- I get... Yahoo Spectacular used to be, or Sportacular. I use the Yahoo app for scores. Okay. Always, hey, people, uh,
14:40
where you get your scores, the a- which app you use or site, it's amazing how many different answers there are. Yeah. I- Well... Yeah. A lot of people use different places.
14:49
I'd like, I would like the answer to be the VSiN app, but, you know. Yeah. We'll see. We'll see what happens there. Uh, I have the, I have the White Sox. Do we have the tweets, by the way, or we'll do those later? Yeah.
14:58
Later. We'll, we'll do those later. I have the White Sox update. You ready for this? Yeah, yeah. Oh, God. I just, before I get to that, I just saw this come over. Are you ready for this? The Washington Cuck.
15:07
What is this? Commanders it says? Yeah, I refuse. The Washington Commanders announced a new eight-year stadium rights agreement. You ready for this sexy, uh, sponsor? Northwest Federal Credit Union. Yeah. [laughs] Ah.
15:24
Terms run through the 2031, '32 season for current stadium only, but do not preclude the franchise from opening a new stadium earlier. Let's go. Let's go, RFK. The new name of this stadium is called, you ready?
15:37
Northwest Stadium. Oh, my God. Live from historic Northwest Stadium in- I mean, I-... Raljon, Maryland. I wanna say they're smart for shortening the name, but, like, now you're just kinda...
15:51
Uh, is it misleading directional-wise, by the way? Like, is the stadium somehow in a northwest area of anything? Uh, no, not really. [laughs] I'm trying to figure out, I'm trying to give them some credit for something.
16:04
La- Landover is not northwest of DC, no. Yeah. [laughs] Um- That's kind of, kind of a problem... uh, back to the White Sox for a second. Oh, God, Northwest Stadium. Uh, back to the White Sox.
16:13
So I was, uh, I was, uh, wondering earlier out loud, 'cause we showed this unbelievable tweet about just, like, the futility, the different ways you can slice the futility of the Chicago White Sox.
16:23
And from James Fegan, one fact more unbelievable than the previous. Again, a pitcher who had a 7.97 ERA, uh, hold, [laughs] hold the White Sox, uh, to one earned run over five innings.
16:36
Uh, a pitcher for the Tigers, Ty Maddux, last night. Uh, it was the 31st blown save by the Sox bullpen of the year. 31.
16:44
Their whole record, their entire record, their s- their standings, uh, the record in the standings is 31 and 101, 70 games under.500.
16:53
70 under.500 with 132 games played, 31 and 101, and they're 3 and 33 versus Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota, three of their division opponents. So I set it up to Mark Borchardt. I said, "All right.
17:07
What's the total number of games?" 'Cause from a betting standpoint, what was a- what was amazing, Mark and I talked about this in Q- in the Q2 Derivatives podca- podcast, beginning of the book.
17:16
The White Sox as a first five betting proposition are actually kind of break-even-y. They're, like, the eighth best first five team if you blindly bet them first five all year long. That's incredible.
17:30
And it is as, as displayed in this tweet, it's all about how bad their bullpen is, right?
17:35
They have leads, actually, after the first five, and they're dogs, and so the, the price works out that you'd have broke even betting them first fives. Anyway, total games they've played, 132.
17:46
Kelly, they have led after five innings 48 times. They have lost- Wait, hold on. How many, how many games have we played? 132. Okay. They have led after five innings 48 times. It's not bad
18:03
They have lost Close to break even-y. They- I'm trying to get my life to a break even, break even-y point. Now, now remember, they're gonna be tied in some of those too, but they've led- Yeah...
18:12
to the point of our bet, the double result bet, because some books offer this, uh, White Sox win/White Sox lose, first five, full game. So they have led 48 times after five innings, they have lost 23 of those games.
18:30
That's incredible. So 23 instances out of 132, a 174 hit percentage, in other words. Uh, the bre- the bet is priced usually at around plus 725, which is a 12.1% implied probability.
18:47
So you're basically up 57 units. Woo-hoo. [laughs] Blind betting the double result every single game- Oh... this year- Man... 132 times. That is wild. That is wild.
18:59
Now, if someone had come on air before the season started and said to you, "You know what I think I'm gonna do with the White Sox this year? I think they're gonna be pretty good first five.
19:08
I think they're gonna-" Would've laughed him off the show... suck. You would've been like, "What are you talking about?" You can't bet that way. [laughs] You can't bet that way. That's the most ridiculous thing ever.
19:15
This is what makes sports betting so incredible. 57 units to the positive. Oh, man. It is... The part we haven't really brought up, like, you, you just...
19:22
Like, I feel bad for those, the players, like, the everyday players [laughs] and the starting pitchers. Like, the bullpen's gotta be just hated. Just hated. Um, one other thing you brought up in the...
19:32
You were talking about, like, if you forgive this, uh, sports, sports talk d- sports talk radio moment here. You were talking about this thing, this, uh, documentary.
19:39
Speaking of documentaries, this Michigan sign stealing Untold is out now. Yeah. [laughs] This is so ridiculous.
19:44
And so, so Kelly asked the, asked the very poignant question: Who do you believe more, Connor Stallions from the University of Michigan sign stealing scandal? I have not seen the documentary yet.
19:56
I just, I was read- Or Jannik Sinner. Yeah, or Jannik Sinner.
19:59
I was read- I was reading a bit, I was on espn.com reading a bit of the Stallions story this morning, and then on ESPN, I caught a package they ran on Jannik Sinner and how it, like, all happened. How his- Yeah...
20:10
test got contaminated. And you're just like, "Oh my God, there's 14 levels to each one of these stories that, like-" People wanna believe Jannik Sinner, though, 'cause he's such a nice guy, right?
20:23
And we are all human beings, and so that factors into people's brains. Now, Andy Roddick points out that there was a lower level player who had, had the same infinitesimal amount of a trace detected who
20:38
was treated in the same manner.
20:40
So Andy Roddick's position, wor- uh, former world number one, former US Open champion, his position is you have to let it be adjudicated this way with Jannik Sinner because there's precedent for it. Mm.
20:50
That, that's a good point. But other people say, how do you know this trace, this remnant, is not just a remnant from a larger, a larger sample? We don't, right? So I, I don't know.
21:00
Just so many of these, I mean, what, what's the story? One of the coaches or his medical guy- Jesus... cut, cut- Yes... his finger, right? Yeah. Okay, yeah.
21:07
Then got some ointment from a doctor in Italy that's only avoi- available in Italy, applied it on his cut finger, then massaged Jannik Sinner, who apparently had cuts on his legs, therefore the drug- [laughs]...
21:21
transferred from blood system to blood sy- Like, what are we talking about here? Come on. And then Stallions is, Stallions says, "Oh yeah, like, I bought tickets for these games, but then I gave them to friends."
21:33
The answer to your question is Stallions is less believable. [laughs] Yeah. I think they're, I think they're both absurd. Because this dude was, like, a lifelong Michigan fan- Yeah... who, like, systematically
21:45
tracked the sign stealing, like, data through the years. Like, this guy was absolutely... And then he's, "I don't know what you're talking about." This guy, Stallions, is, is less believable.
21:54
In the documentary, Stallions tells the NCAA that, quote, "There are some people who attended games using tickets that I purchased and recorded parts of those games."
22:03
Remember the Central Michigan g- uh, game where he- Nothing to do with Michigan there. Remember the Central Michigan one where he denies that he's, that he's the guy that they spot on the sidelines?
22:11
But Dave Portnoy from Barstool says, "No, he told me it was him." [laughs] So I mean- What are you doing?... if Dave Portnoy is the voice of reason, right? Yeah. You know, that's something. By the way, you say ointment?
22:21
Ointment. Whenever ointments are involved- Oint- ointment... that's bad. Yeah. That's one of my least favorite words. Yeah, it's pretty, it's a pretty terrible word. Ointment. Ointment.
22:28
[laughs] I think that was a word my mom used to say. "Gilley, maybe an ointment will work." We'll come back, Michael Matasano. College football and pro football plays next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:42
The numbers tell the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of Numbers Game and VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:53
Visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Um, how are you taking us in? Thank you so much. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. We never take it for granted. We appreciate, uh, you allowing us to be part of your morning.
23:04
Uh, still to come this hour, Paul Spoor joins us to talk Major League Baseball. Um, and then Kelly and I are gonna go through a few things in the NFL. A couple things in the NFL.
23:13
NFL receiving head-to-heads, most yards, player to player. A couple I like there, yeah. What were you mumbling about? I said there's a couple I like there. Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah.
23:21
I was gonna say, you're very quiet about it. Sorry. Sorry. He likes, he likes a couple of them. I do too. Actually, I like too many of them. Yeah. [laughs] That's where I kind of felt- That was my reaction...
23:29
I'm, I'm glad you had that reaction- Yeah... 'cause I did too. And then, uh, a few scoring specials. Team to score least regular season points, or we could just really say fewest regular season points.
23:39
Uh, team to concede the most regular season points, and then the team to concede the fewest regular season points as well. Looking forward to that.
23:45
Just trying to respect the way that, uh, Advocate Skirmish, uh, w- worded their stuff. Oh, we, we don't have to say that anymore. FanDuel. We can say FanDuel. Wow, that feels good. Uh, we get tweets admitting the book.
23:54
Nevad Azer, "Hey Gil, not sure if you've covered this." Oh, this is good. This is a good tweet. "Hey Gil, not sure if you've covered this, but it looks like the NBA has banned its voters from betting on their awards.
24:05
This further muddies that Wemby Defensive Player of the Year bet. Wonder how many voters had tickets on Rudy. How long before Major League Baseball and the NFL follow?"
24:15
This is such a great point, and it is, it was exactly my reaction to it, which is Oh, I bet these uh-huh had Rudy tickets, and that's why they were so ridiculously illogical sticking...
24:30
Whenever Kelly's getting ready to pounce on me. That is why they were so ridiculously [laughs] adamant sticking with their Rudy Gobert votes, which we knew. We kept saying the whole time. I did anyway.
24:40
It's like next year everybody's gonna forget about their reasoning and they're gonna be like, "Oh, who cares if the Spurs stink? Wemby, he's 10 to one." You know, it's like ridiculous.
24:48
He's minus a billion to be defensive player of the year. What a joke. I don't really... Like, I'll, I'll move on from the last year thing. Yeah. I think it's interesting. It's a great thing to say, NBA.
25:00
Well, I mean, like, we're not tracking- Well... NBA voters who are writers and where they're, where they're at at all times of the day like we are players.
25:07
The reaction to this should be, "Oh, you mean how were they allowed to v- how were they allowed to bet on this in the first place if they were award voters? Shouldn't this have been stated- Yeah... in advance?" Sure.
25:19
I, I, I agree with that. You're just coming up with this now? Yes. Yeah. Master of puppets. Idea. You take me to sushi, I take you to the US Open. Uh, deal if I can strike it.
25:32
I was, I was gonna say, what [laughs] like, come on, it's on your bucket list, man. If I can, if I can make- I think that's a pretty easy deal. Well, I've been.
25:37
I've already, I've already got the bucket list, but I'd like to go again. Jason H11, "How to pronounce a Euro tennis player, mumble, mumble, mumble, Tova. Hey, Gilly, know any good sushi places?" We're back. Oh, no.
25:46
[laughs] We're over the sushi. Um, anyone, any more here, or want to save the rest? Uh. I think that is- I guess we'll save the rest.
25:53
Um, Michael Montesano joins us, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He won the $100,000 Circa Booby Prize back in 2020, the inaugural Circa Millions contest. Was that the inaugural? Yes, it was.
26:05
2020 Circa Millions. Uh, he joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Michael Montesano. How you doing, Mike? Uh, you had to bring up Wemby, huh? Yeah. [laughs] You... Does that, that outrages you.
26:17
I would imagine that outrages you as much as it does me, which is oh. Oh. Ugh. To no end. To no end. To, to no end. We will look back on it.
26:26
Maybe it will be DeMar Hamlin, 'cause DeMar Hamlin was a special case, but I know you won on that. You actually had a- I did, yeah... Joe Flacco Comeback Player of the Year.
26:33
I think DeMar Hamlin has, is his own category, but I think the non-DeMar Hamlin I almost died on the field awards retrospective of what were the worst outcomes ever, it's gonna be Wemby- Yeah...
26:46
Defensive Player of the Year. I should have lost Joe Flacco. I should have won Wemby. Yes. So. [laughs] I agree. Uh, okay. Let's start with college football. Thursday night we have some games.
26:56
There's only two, uh, FBS versus FBS games, I believe. Carolina against Minnesota, and the other one is Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina, uh, going up against Jacksonville State. You have a play on this. Yeah.
27:12
Um, I like Coastal Carolina in this one. It was three and a half about a week ago. It's down to two and a half. I did take it at three and a half. I do, I would still take it at two and a half as well.
27:23
I know the key number's three. I, I, I think this line's gonna, gonna go down a little bit more. Um, you know, Co- Coastal's led by, uh, Ethan Vasco. He started four games last year at QB.
27:34
He had a 62% completion percentage, 7-1 touchdown INT percentage. Tim Beck is their coach. In their first year he did a really good job, 8-5, and that's with Grayson McCall, who's now at North Carolina State.
27:47
He was out six games, so that caught my attention that even without their star quarterback, they were still able to win some games. So he, he, he, he is a difference maker at, on the coaching level.
27:59
I'm a f- I'm not really a fan of Rich Rodriguez. He did a really nice job last year, uh, you know, with Jacksonville State, you know, making the transition to, to FBS.
28:08
They were 9-3 and, uh, 9-3-1, I believe, against the spread. Um, but I, I like Coastal's talent in this one.
28:16
They, they do have 66 new players and, but per 2-4-7 rankings, their team talent is 92 and, um, under Jacksonville, Jacksonville State, their team talent's at 127. So I'm gonna take the more talented team
28:30
with the, I think, the little bit better of the coach, even though Rodriguez has been around for a while. So I like Coastal plus the points. Kelly, real quick, Coastal Carolina's team name? I don't know.
28:41
Hurricanes or a chicken or something. I don't know. Chanticleer. That's right, yeah, yeah. 21 games, if I'm counting correctly, on Thursday involving an FBS opponent or FBS team. FBS versus FBS, though only two games.
28:54
Yeah. Yeah. Uh, all right. Coastal Carolina, the first play from Michael Montesano. Uh, let's go to Saturday. Uh, when last we saw DeShawn Foster, uh, he was at Big Ten Media Day and it didn't go very well.
29:06
Uh, but UCLA now gets Hawaii here, and, uh, Hawaii 1-0, but did not come close to covering against Delaware State. This is a big two touchdown spread, uh, in favor of the Bruins. What do you like here?
29:21
So I like UCLA in this one. It's the old, uh, debate, you know, is it better to play a game first or get film on your team first? Um, I think it's better to have film on your team first.
29:31
You know, you wonder, though, did Hawaii, did they, even though they played an F- uh, they played a very poor FCS opponent, did they leave some things in the bag waiting for this game?
29:40
I, I, it doesn't really matter to me. The talent level that UCLA has as opposed to Hawaii is, is much, much better.
29:47
I, I like the fact that Foster, even though his [laughs] press conference he struggled a little bit, I, I do like the fact that he was their associate head coach last year.
29:56
Uh, he was the running backs coach for a couple years. They led the Pac- the former Pac-12 in rushing the last two years, so he is gonna wanna run the ball.
30:03
And I also think with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, he's gonna wanna, you know, keep his name out there for possible head coaching jobs. He's gonna do, uh, you know, do well w- with UCLA.
30:16
UCLA had a top-notch defense and they, they were one of the nation's top in yards, yards per play. They only allowed 4.6 yards per play.
30:24
Uh- I, I have this UCLA, last year if the game were to be played, my ratings, if their game were to be played at UCLA, or excuse me, at Hawaii at the end of last year, UCLA would've been favored by 23 and a half points.
30:38
This year, with all the adjustments and the transfer portal, I had them favored by 19, uh, 19 points. It's, you know, it's down to under 14, the key number 14, so I like UCLA minus the 13 and a half. All right.
30:51
Spin the wheel. Give me one more college football play before we go to the pros. One more college football play. I'm gonna take James Madison.
30:58
I'm, I'm just basically looking at last year's, uh, power ratings and what ended last year. James Madison would've been favored by 23 points at the end of last year in this game. It's all the way down to six.
31:10
That's too much of an overcompensation for all their players leaving and going, for the most part, to Indiana, 'cause they do have a new head coach. I, uh, I'm a big fan of Head Coach Bob Chesney.
31:20
He has a 113 and 44 record in the lower divisions, um, F- FCS, Division II, and Division III. I, I just think it's too many points to compensate for last year.
31:31
Um, a- and I like James Madison, uh, minus the, minus the six. It's all the way down to six now. I like them minus six. Best wide receiver to ever come out of James Madison, Kelly?
31:41
Is this terrible of me to ask Kelly impossible questions? Oh, come on. I was waiting for Charlotte. I know their team name. They're the 49ers. [laughs] That's where I thought you were gonna go.
31:48
Gary- Best wide receiver from James Madison, I don't know... Gary Clark. Gary Clark is the answer, of course. Everyb- [laughs] everybody knows that. Uh, you have a week one play in the NFL. Yeah, I have a week one play.
31:59
I'll probably use that in the contest as well, as I like the Vikings, uh, over the Giants. I just, I just think the Giants are one of the three worst teams in the NFL.
32:09
Their offensive line is, is dreadful, and I- I'm just not sold on Daniel Jones at all. And, uh, I think Minnesota with their skill players, I know Hawkinson's out, but, um, I'm a, I'm a big fan of the Vikings this year.
32:23
I think they'll go into the Giants and, uh, they'll get the job done, uh, win by at least one, you know, a touchdown. And, um, you know, I think it's gonna be a long season for the Giants.
32:33
I don't think it's anything new from what most people are, are projecting as well. And they will look to get their quarterback of the future.
32:39
It could be, uh, the tanka- tankathon late in the year to try to get a, a top pick for a quarterback. Oh, it's, if you watch that Hard Knocks, it just drove home the point that we always knew.
32:49
They are so hamstrung with this Daniel Jones contract.
32:52
And as we'd talked about when we broke down last winless, and we landed on the Patriots here on the show, but then Chris Fallica also buttressed this when he came on to talk about it, if the Giants lose this, last winless is definitely in play.
33:06
You do have a- Yeah... season-long, a make playoff team. Who'd you land on? Yeah. I took, I took the Seahawks at plus 180 to make the playoffs.
33:14
Uh, I really like their, their new head coach, Mike McDonald, um, and the defensive schemes they're gonna bring in from Baltimore.
33:21
I also like their offensive coordi- coordinator, uh, that ca- has came over from the University of Washington. Um, he really knows the passing game. They did a great job at Washington, uh, with the passing game.
33:32
And, you know, if you look at their non-div- uh, non-division home games, they have Denver, Miami, Green Bay, Buffalo, the Giants, and Minnesota, so it's a manageable, it, it's manageable at home, uh, against some of those teams.
33:44
And they do get New England on the road, and they get Atlanta on the road, so winnable games as well.
33:49
So I, you know, full disclosure, I, I, when I was at Bet Bash, I did take Mike McDonald at 19 to 1 for Coach of the Year. He's, I know he's down to 10 to 1 now. I, I don't think I'd play it at 10 to 1.
34:00
But I just like everything that, that that guy brings, and I, I think they, you know, they could have an outside shot at winning the division as well. Yeah. I am at 13 to 1, 'cause I lollygagged, but 13 to 1 nonetheless.
34:11
Same bet, Mike McDonald, Coach of the Year. Coastal Carolina, JMU, UCLA on the college side. Vikings week one against the Giants, and then the Seahawks to make the playoffs at plus 180, from Michael Monosono.
34:22
Thank you, Michael. Appreciate it. Thank you, guys. Circa Booby Prize Winner 2020. We'll come back. A few NFL props, teams to score the least regular season points, and more.
34:38
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game live from Bar Canada at the D. Bar Canada, the barrage.
34:46
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Fidlin, and this, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, is one of our favorites, of course, courtesy of Fan Graphs, where he, uh, works diligently.
34:55
Sleeper and the Bus is the name of his podcast. It's Paul Sporer. You can follow him on Twitter at Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R, from Austin, Texas. How you doing, Paulie? I'm doing well, Gil. How are you? Doing very well.
35:08
Uh, we read this tweet from a gentleman named Forrest Lehmann, um, if that is his real name, uh, last segment, and we, and I, we reacted to this. I think it's a great question. Um, I'd like to get your thoughts.
35:20
"Can we play the New York, LA bias game, please?" He asks, "Let's pretend Shohei played in Atlanta and Marcell Ozuna played in LA. What would current MVP odds be? Whit and Judge, same deal.
35:31
Not saying these guys don't deserve to be favored, but throwing in the ridiculous Lindor odds as well," [laughs] if you wanted to add that to the mix.
35:39
I will tell you real quickly that I was, I was just like, "I don't get the, I don't get Lindor's odds being cut, like, to five to one." Like, I just don't get that.
35:46
Um- What, what were they at, excuse me, on that with Lindor? Lin- Lindor's MVP odds are all the way down to five to one. Okay. So he's actually shorter than... And so Shohei's the favorite, big favorite. Right. Right.
35:59
Then it's Lindor at five to one, and then everybody else, including Ozuna. Um- Right...
36:04
so let's address, let's address the, the main question of if Shohei and Ozuna were flipped in cities, and Judge and Whit, how do you think those odds would shift? Um, not different at all. Yeah.
36:19
So here's what, here's what I said. Marginally. Marginally in the American League. I thought pretty dramatically in the National League. Oh, really? I'll tell you why. B- Because Ozuna- Go ahead...
36:32
is on the cusp of a Triple Crown also That is true and fair, but then what do you do with the 40 SBs, the 20 runs? Yeah. Yeah. No, I know. I- Right?
36:43
Listen, I think, I think Ohtani would still be the favorite, but I think... When I say dramatically, like, if we flash up the odds, like, Shohei is still, what is he? Minus 1,100. Minus- What is he?
36:53
I got, I got 14 on, uh, on VK right now. Oh, minus 1,400. Yeah. So, like, I mean, I think he'd still be the favorite, but I think it would be, like, in the ballpark of humanity, right?
37:02
Like, it maybe be like, oh, he's a minus 300 favorite or whatever it is. That's what I mean by dramatically, I guess. Let me qualify that. I think it'd be close, but I, I, I...
37:10
Or closer I think, but I, I think it'd still be a pretty dramatic split for Ohtani. Now, it is really hard to kind of do this, this mental, uh, exercise because we are so ingrained with the, these guys as we know them.
37:21
But, uh, the 40/40 cachet is up there with, like, the Triple Crown. And, you know- Yeah. Well- Triple Crown won Miggy that award and, and, you know, there were debates on whether or not Trout deserved it.
37:32
Obviously I'm a, I'm a Tigers diehard, but I, I thought, I thought Trout was very compelling MVP candidate for both of Miggy's MVPs.
37:40
So I think the 40/40 would still carry the day, and maybe it'd be more of Ohtani minus 1,000 and then Marcell Ozuna instead of plus 3,000 right now, maybe plus 800. I s- I still- Oh... think it'd be a decent split.
37:55
But you're, you're, you're sharper on this than I am. No, I mean- So I'm actually, I'm a, I'll lean your way, but that's my feeling on it. And then Yayo, wouldn't change a thing.
38:03
See, I- Judge is so much better, it's not even funny. See, I said that too. And then Kelly I think [laughs] here's where I gave a little bit. Kelly then pointed out, what were your words?
38:12
Just Bobby Witt as a Yankee, like, I think they'd be going nuts all, like, I mean, July when he was batting what, like,.500 through 20 days? Yes. Like- I, I do concede. Think of, think about Derek Jeter, right?
38:23
I know he won championships, but, like, think about how as a, as a just offensive player, he was overrated by the, by the people who love the Yankees, right? Imagine Bobby Witt Jr. as a Yankee.
38:36
There's gotta be some give in that market. I would, I would concede a little. If I can undercut my own point, I, I'll point to the Lindor odds probably as a decent test case of, of what, what could be done, right?
38:48
Because he's- Yeah... a New York shortstop- That's right... who, you know, is at plus 550 right now. Witt in New York, okay, you know, I, I'll concede as well.
38:56
Um, and again, with these odds, with these markets that are being made, they're trying to predict things. It's not a, it's not saying, like, that it should be.
39:04
I, I don't think that it would, uh, be Judge over Witt if they were switched in, in cities there. But the, but the market would, would want to be there to show that it, it would be a lot closer.
39:16
Um, it, it's crazy what Judge is doing to dwarf the Witt and Soto seasons. He's amazing. It is in- Because- It is incredible. Yes...
39:23
those are both brilliant seasons that we should be doing back flips over, and we are giving a lot of credit to and a lot of excitement about. But they pale in comparison to what Judge is doing. It's so crazy.
39:33
Now, the shortstop defense also helps Witt a lot in terms of, like, your WAR and all that. But just the sheer greatness of Judge right now is, is unmatched- I, I agree. I've-... um, in the American League...
39:43
been saying it all year. Like, I'd love to sit here and tell you Bobby Witt Jr., who is insane, ought to be an MVP ticket- Right... bet for you. But it, but it just isn't, uh, with Judge. And I guarantee
39:54
voters when they're, when they're ranking are gonna do the old, "Witt will get his down the road." Even though that's faulty logic, you really shouldn't do that. If the guy's the MVP that year, give it to him. Well.
40:04
But in terms of, like, tiebreaker, if it, if it ends up being just, like, razor close statistically at the end of the year, I still think people are gonna lean Judge because we know with his health how many more chances he's gonna get at MVPs, whereas Witt is, like, I think he turned 14 the other day or something.
40:18
I don't know. [laughs] I brought this up with Borchard yesterday, I'll bring it up with you.
40:21
Okay, so the Yankees get into the playoffs, and then all of a sudden the team that they're playing [laughs] you know, let's say they, they skip the best of three, let's say they're best of five, they start in the, uh, division series.
40:33
All of a sudden their opponent's gonna be like, "You know, we don't have to pitch to Judge." Like, isn't that just gonna be- Oh, please don't ever. Yes.
40:39
So, like, this is all kind of mirage-y a little bit to me on the Yankees right now. W- I guess the tough part though is, you know, you can get punished for that pretty quickly. You could.
40:51
'Cause Soto's probably already on base at least half the time, damn near. So then you're gonna throw Judge on base too.
40:59
You got two on with Stanton, Chisholm, and, and Wells coming, and I know that's not, uh, Murderers' Row there, but you don't really wanna mess with that. They could really punish teams for doing that.
41:08
At the same time, if I'm the manager [laughs] of that other team- I'll take my chances... four hole, baby. Yeah. Get on over there. Let them beat me. If they do, I tip my cap- Yeah...
41:17
because I'm not letting Judge eat me alive in a playoff series. So I, I get it, I'm just saying that it could really work in the Yankees' benefit to put two of the first three batters on 60% of the time for a series.
41:28
Yeah. It's, it's obviously situation dependent, but yeah, if g- all things being equal, take your base, buddy. Um- Right... who's your vote?
41:35
If you're, if you're voting for NL Rookie of the Year, are you Skeens or are you Merrill? I, I'm going Merrill. Um, the volume plays for me big time in Rookie of the Year vote.
41:44
And that's not really Skeens's fault, so it's, it's nothing against Skeens whatsoever.
41:49
But Merrill was there from day one, all the way back in Korea, putting up work, not to mention position changing from shortstop to center field. See how it's done, Derek? See?
42:01
See how you go to a, a, a different position when you're inferior? Anyway. [laughs] It's not even that Jackson Merrill couldn't handle short, it's that they had established guys there.
42:08
But, um, you know, him going out to center field, stabilizing their outfield, being their catalyst, right? They've got star-studded names all over the joint.
42:17
Uh, you know, M- Fernando Tatis, uh, their shortstop coming in, or excuse me, no, he, he was in the outfield too. Kim was the shortstop coming in. Uh, but Tatis isn't even there. Merrill's basically replacing him.
42:28
So I love what Skeens has done. He's been a monster, but I gotta go Merrill right now. Another three RBI for Merrill last night. Another three RBI. This is just- It's unbelievable...
42:37
just relentless down the stretch here. And he's become the, the betting favorite, right? He has become the betting favorite- I think I heard that... up to minus 175-ish after last night. Yeah. Like, wow.
42:48
Well, you do a walk-off every other day. I mean- It's just r- it, that week where he was, like, hitting a dramatic eighth or ninth inning home run every night, it's like, this guy's incredible on this.
42:57
Um- Absolutely absurd. Um, I was gonna ask you something now about flu- now it just escaped my mind. DFS if you could for the day. DFS, sir. All right. Well, it's an interesting board today with the pitchers.
43:08
We got lots, uh, to go on either way. You can get your aces going. You get Logan Gilbert against the Rays. I mean, we saw what Bryce Miller did last night, could be 5,000 Ks.
43:17
Over there you got Flaherty against Baltimore. That could be an interesting zig where you're still getting an ace, but you're going up against a tough team to try to get somebody that people aren't necessarily using.
43:24
I like Gilbert, Cease as my two favorites on the year, uh, on the day rather. And then as far as picking on clubs, we got a game in Coors, uh, Roderic Munoz against, uh, Cal Quantrill, so there could be runs there.
43:33
The problem is the Rockies and the Marlins don't bring a bunch of offensive players, so maybe it will be a bit of a pitcher's duel. But Patrick Corbin's going against those Yankees.
43:42
Soto, I don't care that it's lefty, lefty, Judge all day. Corbin needs to get the four, four fingers going for Soto and Judge.
43:49
He should not throw a single pitch to either of them or it could be really, really problematic there in, uh, in Washington for Corbin. Cole Irvin against the Dodgers. Johnny Cueto's super, super interesting to me.
44:00
Uh, always been one of my favorite pitchers, but this young Tigers upstart, and again, I'm wearing the T- the hat, I'm a huge Tigers fan. They've been playing a lot better of late.
44:07
About six runs per game over the last eight games since they brought up, uh, they recalled Tork, brought up Trey Sweeney and Jace Young. That young offense is playing well.
44:15
So don't just run against the Tigers anymore thinking that you're automatically gonna get, uh, get over on them with pitchers.
44:20
So I'd be careful with Johnny Cueto if you're thinking that, uh, that could be a cute zig there. All right, last question. I've asked you this before, but, uh, let's get the, uh, August 27th edition answer to this.
44:30
Team, either AL or NL, the proverbial you don't wanna face this team in the, in a playoff series. You know, for me right now it's Kansas City in the American League. You talk about Bobby Witt- I like it...
44:42
he's certainly not the only one doing it. They're starting to stabilize that bullpen. Lucas Erseck has been an amazing pickup that's been a bit under the radar.
44:49
If and when they walk into the playoffs and, and, you know, we're doing our stories on everybody, Erseck's gonna be somebody who can be in center focus there to really stabilize their ninth.
44:59
In the National League, um, I th- obviously, the Diamondbacks are like the hottest team going of late, but I'm gonna go with that Padres team 'cause I really, really love their depth of talent and as they add guys back, Tatís, Darvish just back recently, or coming back this week.
45:12
So they're gonna be, uh, very difficult to face, or they certainly could be, the Padres. Diamondbacks Royals World Series, 400 to 1. Let's get it done. Love it. Love it. Again, watch it be the Dodgers and Yankees.
45:23
Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Take care. Paul, Paul Spohrer, everybody. @Spohrer. Um, a receiver versus receiver, matchups head-to-head next.
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